Beige Book
CONFIDENTIAL
(FR)
CURRENT
ECONOMIC
CONDITIONS
BY
DISTRICT
P r e p a r e d for the
Federal Open Market Committee
by the Staff
January
12,
1971
T A B L E OF
CONTENTS
SUMMARY page 1
First District - Boston page 1
Second District - New York page 5
Third District - Philadelphia page 7
Fourth District - Cleveland page 10
Fifth District - Richmond page 13
Sixth District - Atlanta page 16
Seventh District - Chicago page 19
Eighth District - St. Louis page 22
Ninth District - Minneapolis page 24
Tenth District - Kansas City page 27
Eleventh District - Dallas page 30
Twelfth District - San Francisco page 33
SUMMARY
Business
and
other
conditions
observers
Reserve
Districts
January
compared
late
spurt
recent
sales
expand
inventories
employment
were
slightly
improved
record
or
grow.
output
in
the m o n t h s
of
financial
tailing
was
further
higher
tively
low
at
food
Most
sales
just
dollar
cent
off
prior
higher
higher
prices
Federal
sales
slow
the c l o s e
to
well
than
but
sales
began
volume
predominantly
such
as
TV
demand
and
is
is
rise
number
and
of
banks
industrial
plans
continue
of
in
the
lower
sets
and
high
priced
quality
the
rising
expectations
additional
ago,
con-
to
liquidity
continue
means
products,
a year
of
cur-
notably
resulting
to
meats,
in
rela-
incomes.
sharp
holidays,
into
with
farm
increases
in
retail
resulted
in
total
which
and,
Pre-Christmas
extending
The
for
farm
just
output.
to
envisioned
reported
sharply
intentions
seekers
price
levels,
the
job
most
declining
ex-
of
investment
than
sizable
However,
factory
increasing
the C h r i s t m a s
to
are
ago.
reported
for
discussion
planned
by
the
capital
prices
ago.
a year
followed
gains
but
Reserve
a year
of
the y e a r
and
above
were
color
above
Output
of
early
volume
moderate
advances.
and
the d o l l a r
weak
intensive
December
pushing
availability
to
Federal
a
increase
Rising
late
twelve
report
been
ahead,
in
the
businessmen
Retailers
levels
remains
firms.
leading
not
to
Some
Credit
above
in
by
earlier.
sales,
has
to
prevail,
a month
and w e l l
tinues
pared.
as v i e w e d
conditions
situation
be
nation
economic
in C h r i s t m a s
levels
the
of
with
pected
in
in
some
sales
before
the new
apparently
the
holidays,
year.
items.
clothing
cases,
Higher
The
6 per
started
and
sales
priced
continue
5 to
the
gains
items
to m o v e
slowly.
Retailers
vative
report
levels,
sales w i l l
that
indicating
no
that
new
change was
steel
thermore,
ments
than
demand
an
steel
foreseen
about
first.
have
goods
doubt
remain
that
Much
increase
a month
gains
in
sales
of
and
this
for
The
sharply
expect
second
at
very
the r e c e n t
conser-
upturn
with
the
Cleveland
Bank
reports
in
pickup
to b e m u c h
is b a s e d
on
The
Richmond
Bank
With
the
generally
In c o n f o r m i t y
occurred
with
in
not
this
the
ship-
stronger
rising
reported
exception
do
Fur-
in s t e e l
gain
strike.
fact
since mid-December.
a big
inventories.
recently
compared
quarter
anticipated
manufacturers
expectations.
have
the
a steel
however,
closings
ago.
economists
in m a n u f a c t u r e r s '
companies,
optimistic
increased
March
in p r e p a r a t i o n
plant
most
considerable
cautiously
industry
steel
and
are
orders
to b e g i n
the
of
continue.
Manufacturers
that
inventories
of
indicate
view,
some
electronics
the
great
layoffs
and
TV
Indus t r i e s .
Most
ployment
is
Reserve
likely
in e m p l o y m e n t ,
the
the
in
labor
Most
rates
and
rather
ahead.
easier
Bank
productive
continue
are
process
reports
Capital
Richmond
indicate
of
the u n e m p l o y m e n t
force
the m o n t h s
to
however,
retrenchment
creases
banks
than
not
firms
several
current
months.
as m o s t
is a b o u t
rate will
high
Further
reports
complete.
primarily
rate
unem-
declines
indicate
Any
reflect
of
future
that
in-
additions
to
layoffs.
to s o m e
Reasons
given
moderate
include
gains
the m o r e
in
construction
favorable
in
interest
terms.
investment
reports
the
expected
point
payment
capacity
for
that
that
plans
apparently
manufacturing
as a p r o b l e m .
The
continue
respondents
Chicago
to b e
pared.
often
Reserve
Bank
cite
The
excess
reports
that
at
a number
or
below
authorized
is o n l y
ing
depreciation
60 p e r
plans,
with
cautious
All
and
demand
cies
cent
and
has
closing
been
more
of
new
most
and
Dallas,
for
vary
as
feed
the m o n t h s
have
numbers
of
of m a r k e t i n g s
livestock
returns
to
that
credit
1970.
very
became
Savings
high
in
recent
reports
of
more
or
of
on
numbers will
and
rubber
is
in
firm
Excludexpan-
connection
increasingly
at
banks
months.
availand
saving!
Business
aggressive
inflation
Practical
while
means
lending
of
type
some
decline
and
margins
farms,
in
to
of
farm
the h i g h e r
loan
poli-
occur
higher
food
a
major
stabilizing
to
another.
policy
and M i n n e a p o l i s
incomes
is
gen-
report
policy
to
controls.
income
have
during
prices.
may
prices
livestock
production
likely
incomes
to an
poultry
however,
to be
for
District
of
Atlanta
opposition
continue
offered
form
adamant
Low meat
profit
1971
heretofore.
solution,
out
the
industrial
it
inflows
some
despite
farmers
is m e n t i o n e d ,
that
from
that
outlays
expenditure.
of m a j o r
reports
the
livestock
reports
capital
a large
actual
one R e s e r v e
ahead.
reduced
of
from
the a d o p t i o n
for
reports
widely
support
leveling
of
to k e e p
planning.
and
than
varying
A
of
been
respondents
for
no
expectations
example,
favored
level
are
businessmen.
however,
Cleveland
investment
weeks
decided
appropriation
1970
concur
have
have
1971.
there
frequent
prices,
erally
the
declining,
Inflation
worry
in
conservative
companies
are
of
when
and
firms
equipment
respondents
the
loan
and
utilities,
sion
in
important
plant
public
able
of
be
and
in
higher
producers.
resulted
costs.
1971,
prospect
The
priced
large
in a h i g h
level
Readjustments
resulting
in
in
higher
Apart
from
employ
more
had
essentially
no
fiscal
noting
his
surprises
new
belief
than w e
comment
this
that
the a d m i n i s t r a t i o n
think,
month.
Professor
will
Wallich
SECOND
Opinions
both
ing
expressed
the N e w Y o r k
businessmen
suggest
continue
been
slower
been
relatively
sustained
the y e a r .
in
the
in
tial
level
in
the a u t o
was
of
then,
later
for
of
With
contacted
last
regarding
to h i g h e r
and
the
looked
for
forthcoming
the
The
directors
as
rapidly
as
they
and
had
until
mixed
as
bond
economic
felt
as
to
that
very
increase
City
the
chairman
he
felt
than a
encouraged
department
in e c o n o m i c
were
from
that
not
poten-
economic
The
that
felt
the
market.
strongly
stated
smaller
outlook
outlook
of a N e w Y o r k
later
negotiations
economic
he had
real
significantly
expected.
City bank
no
labor
corporate
general
to c o n s u m e r
that
primarily
priced
general
has
store
activity
in
the
year.
respect
The
is
in
the o v e r a l l
a moderate
reported
year's,
Christmas.
ago,
and
the
New Y o r k
the p r e s i d e n t
only
part
strike
of a l a r g e
of m o n t h s
while
looked
recovering
recent
s a l e s "have
were
on
in
retail
Sentiments
in
emerged
holiday
to b e
1971
surround-
strike
expected
optimistic.
the GM
encouraged
in
the
have
other
the GM
booming,
in
by
of
from
spending
is not
expressed
not
the b o a r d
couple
not
and
uncertainties
Recovery
consumer
of b o r r o w i n g s
settlement
less
but
Bank Directors,
Branch,
that
expected;
industry.
particularly
activity
been
industry
The views
not
outlook
YORK
Reserve
the i n c r e a s e d
The settlement
steel
than
Federal
evidence.
good,
- NEW
the B u f f a l o
economic
in
pickup
by
and
that
t h a n had
in
of
Bank
the n e a r - t e r m
months
DISTRICT
pre-holiday
because
retailers
items,
spending,
of a big
reported
but
sales,
the
in d o l l a r s ,
spurt
continued
favorable
retailers
in
were
exceeded
the w e e k
consumer
responses
that
before
resistance
to s p e c i a l
sales,
and
the v o l u m e
good.
a
These
levelling
latter
with
of
industry.
Some
plant
did
expect
pects
were
directors
smaller
tion,
little
could
bank,
market
in s u c h
of
a large
that
the end
early
that
to
the
the
of
by
the
evenly
January,
in
the
1970
demands
the
that
is
the b o n d
market
but
that
Accordingly,
he
On
hand,
the o t h e r
be a significant
decline
The
connec-
little
and
that
be
the
corporate
New York
and
little
The
would
be
the
decline
among
"soft"
be higher
companies would
some
from
other
1970
City
president
consensus
rates would
felt
pros-
the
concern,
highs.
reported
that
that
this
in
large
there would
record
they
abated.
borrowing
of
an
significantly
inflation,
concern
four months,
the m a r k e t .
curbing
felt
manufacturing
felt
be
that
chairman
their
not
of
that
one.
contacted
prospective
bank
felt
be a lengthy
would
steel
manager
stated
however,
divided
the
In
until wage
a large
--
in
auto w o r k e r s .
toward
The
from
the
Others,
that w e r e
mixed.
year.
there would
about
corporation
settlement
achieved
executives
of
were
strike would
regarding
borrowings
or
steel
any
expected
were
—
received
being
three
opinions
strike.
that
that
been
a pickup
general
the m a n u f a c t u r i n g
the n e x t
and
including
of a R o c h e s t e r
corporate
spring
has
through
directors
the p r e s i d e n t
chairman
the
business
far
strike
Sentiments
bond
front,
a long
be
through
good
so
year.
businessmen
was
for
sales
of a p o s s i b l e
agreed
other
retail
the d u r a t i o n
of
good
than
progress
the
to
upstate
looked
in s a l e s
the l a b o r
respect
not
post-Christmas
retailers
off
part
On
of
by
come
directors
levels.
in
felt
THIRD
Some
minds
sales
anticipate
Bankers,
however,
as a d i s a s t e r
apparently
in P h i l a d e l p h i a
ahead
then
of
last
the s a l e s
above
sold
a year
then
for
pace
Items
big
ticket
items
a r e not
One
large
retailer
were
marked
inventories
along
down
and
entire
probably
slide
Nonetheless,
that w i l l
sumer.
level.
40 per
excess
stock.
back
they
to
are
spotlight
$100
Some
by
"bargain
to
try
some
store
cent
down
small
report
quickly
expect
price
pace
and
for
were
buying" opportunities
other
at
example,
of
high
passed
purchased
sales
the
price
retailers.
because
aggressive
in
shading
suits,
in
cent
appliances,
area
that
Since
to 6 per
marked
These markdowns
motion
2 per
televisions
of m e n ' s
who
turning
department
rising
substantial
retailers
slow
The
"started
of D e c e m b e r .
a manufacturer
consumers
going
Color
Consider-
sales
about
other
though,
types
capacity.
their
large
that w e r e
well.
that
months.
soft.
well."
only
stereos,
reports
Most
ran
the
inflation.
three weeks
selling,
cent
One
report
six
Christmas
dramatically,
particularly
to p r i c e - c o n s c i o u s
tailer's
sales
portable
clothing
the m a n u f a c t u r i n g
up
and
into
Manufacturers
the n e x t
fairly
back
Retailers
remains
that
week.
under
and
demand
up
first
creeping
expected.
during
report
that
picked
Radios,
sold
than
unemployment
ended
the
to b e
District.
loan
Christmas
indicates
ago.
briskly.
that
retailers
was
year
appears
better
about
and
PHILADELPHIA
in s h i p m e n t s
report
persists
-
the T h i r d
out
an increase
concern
point
in
turned
Philadelphia
off
optimism
of b u s i n e s s m e n
Christmas
able
cautious
DISTRICT
the
re-
will
coming
months.
advertising
for
the
con-
For
ers
first
are bullish
believes
over
an
the
basic
to
who
half
Bankers
soggy
are
loan
thermore,
He
one
of
from
seasonal
Most
a lot
in
in
businesses
looking
are
around
lieve
for
for
may mean
is no
but
it a l s o
reflects
a
that
"things
will
better."
is s u s p i c i o u s
than
that
mostly
there
get
of
this
more
budding
on e x p e c t a t i o n s
is m o r e
a weak
the e c o n o m y
they
had
because
he
does
help
reports
these
funds with
further
some
loan
that
for
"hopefulness"
economy
and
and
loan
demand
anticipated.
of
not
the n o r m a l
expect
any
demand
Furpay
relief
be-
a
drop
improving
business
made
a sizable
number
outstanding.
been made
are
terms.
This
the c o n s t r u c t i o n
in i n t e r e s t
that
rates
are
in
The
they
shopping
industry
the
of
still
however. Apparently
favorable
in
says
loans
by
remain
have
financing,
more
quality
One banker
loans which
people
declines
seeking
it has
commitments
permanent
that
actively
problem.
construction
to w h o m
around
that
rise
reflects
both
months
are
rate would
for
shopping
notes
banks
One bank
commitments
will
optimism
talk a b o u t
that
slowly
coming
funds
discount
psychology.
activity
now
factors.
obtaining
the
majority
emerging
that
still
say
more
the
large
manufactur-
expectations.
banker
Philadelphia
cause
this
is b a s e d
He adds
A
business
strike,
it
regional
orders.
psychology
the w h o l e
city
loans
of
In part
1971.
demand.
down
level
says
to such
on
recovering
new
summer,
is a m a n u f a c t u r e r ,
of
"substance"
late
and
Motors
in b u s i n e s s
however.
second
than
general
six m o n t h s .
director,
the
since
sales
the G e n e r a l
change
optimism,
about
the
the n e x t
end
One
that
time
wind.
be-
Although
than
a few w e e k s
express
less,
that
there
a deep
a feeling
the
"worst
the b e s t . "
ago
appears
in
concern
seems
to be
the T h i r d
about
to be
is b e h i n d
less
District,
inflation
emerging
us and
pessimism
and
in
somehow
most
in
general
businessmen
unemployment.
the b u s i n e s s
things
now
still
Nonethe-
community
will work
out
for
FOURTH
There
has
Fourth
District
strike
and
is
evidence
slowdown
in
an
the
their
as a r e s u l t
doldrums,
expressed
capital
and
recent
and
in
orders
in
and
cent
of
the p r o p o r t i o n
late
the per
cent
Economists
orders
orders,
however,
generally
later.
Extended
strikes
steel
fall
shipments
by GM w i l l
at
not
be
for
three
to G M ;
stimulate
area
of
small
reporting
much
was
price
re-
production,
gains
larger
a decline
cent
steel
sharply
call
to
the
in
inboth
first
purchasing
declines
out-
increases.
major
increased
but
December
reporting
three
continue
directors
Ohio
agents
showing
the per
reporting
from
have
Ohio
our
There were
month,
firms
in w h i c h
of
orders,
purchasing
of
remain's
gains.
in n e w
last
the
residential
northeastern
Significantly,
1962
in
in D e c e m b e r .
production
in n o r t h e a s t e r n
new
the
inventories
since
numbered
in
there
awards
designed
measures
auto
industry
building
recovery
the
reflecting
One
agents
per
tool
in
the
however,
is c o n t i n u i n g .
deterioration
the
of
weakness
The machine
productivity
month
last
orders;
and
categories.
slowed
steel
investment
those
that
The
activity
settlement
policy
increases
agents
the
for
employment,
creases
economic
the need
a further
in n e w
in
CLEVELAND
non-residentia1
however,
Purchasing
ported
-
underlying
goods.
decline.
construction,
of
in
persistent
capital
sharp
a rebound
improvement
of
in
been
DISTRICT
some
companies
since
delivery
General
of
delivered
the
mid-December.
in F e b r u a r y
Motors
steel
until
reported
plants
orders
February.
The
or
have
placed
All
of
the
up
in
steel
industry
shipments
quarter
would
that
this
is
Among
our
budget
contains
an
authorized
to 60 per
He
noted
immediate
of
that
plant
of
the
that
an
investment
effect
on
the
level
firm's
have
a drastic
impact
on
lays
in
1971.
In a l l
likelihood,
fect
of
such
slightly
get.
The
spending
he
the
degree
austerity
firm
programs,
the
but
he
firm's
industrial
did
in
management
main
note
a recent
products,
He
director,
several
in m a n y
in 1 9 7 1 .
who
the
about
This
the
firm
its
that
he
director
strongly
capital
that
demand
for
firm
a
and
is
uncer-
reflection
business
activity.
consultant
that
recovery
bud-
for
the
is a s s o c i a t e d
a substantial
relax
outlook
in
or
ef-
capital
large
is a m a n a g e m e n t
reported
to
chemicals
phenomenon
not
out-
indicated
the
in
have
capital
business
in g e n e r a l
firms
appropriations
the m a j o r
into
particularly
industries,
of
the
capital
would
additional
indicated
trend
of
director
a
but w o u l d
near-collapse
is a t e m p o r a r y
downward
pessimistic
activity
about
this
A second
built
optimistic
flow,
level
with
1971
credit
cause
undertake
occurring
expenditures
he a d d e d ,
to
This
materials.
a continued
firms
not
be
however.
nontire
tain w h e t h e r
for
of
would
is m o d e r a t e l y
1971,
of
would
actual
cash
the a c t u a l
a program
firm's
tax
also
1959.
equipment
of
second
They
is a s s o c i a t e d
and
pick-
the
strike
since
the
cent
that
first.
a steel
been
the big
and
the
one who
indicated
that
March
than
it has
directors,
firm
felt
about
stronger
the h i g h e s t
rubber
1970.
begin
the p r o b a b i l i t y
larger
equal
would
be much
commented
year
economists
in
urges
senior
with
re-
business
that
some
form
of
accelerated
capital
spending.
celerated
that
in p r o d u c t i v i t y
On
volume
per
more
that
of
sales
profit
cent
the
number
in
the
margins.
of
the
be
quarter
the
for
capital
improvement
a large
firm's
de-
Christmas
level
and
outlays
were
protect
in
the
He
3
also
increased
Because
improvement
sales
nearly
projections.
season.
should
ac-
reductions.
1969
internal
promotion
employees,
fourth
the
the
the C h r i s t m a s
for
immediate
cost
stimulate
that
instituted
economist
that
to
suggested
in an
above
firm's
and
he
further
reported
6 per
during
to
side,
chain
than
result
lead
advertising
substantially
unchanged
and
5 to
schedules
would
retail
store
was
cent
noted
the
is n e c e s s a r y
In p a r t i c u l a r ,
depreciation
expenditures
partment
depreciation
of
the
an
volume
firm's
FIFTH DISTRICT
Surveys
of b u s i n e s s m e n
indicate
general
weakness
in
agreement
shipments,
in m a n u f a c t u r i n g ;
some
slight
but
not
consumer
diate
(4) m o r e
goods
loan
loan
future
bankers
the
following
of
or
despite
price
declines
in
over
current
and
improvement
weakness
loan
some
outlook
orders
manufacturing,
in b u s i n e s s
(7) a f a v o r a b l e
of
sales
(3) s o m e
but
continued
backlogs
in r e t a i l
banks,
District
(1)
(5) c o n t i n u e d
district
discouragement
and
sales:
(6) c u t b a c k s
and
the F i f t h
points:
orders,
services;
at
in
improvement
numerous
demand
demand;
new
in a u t o m o b i l e
construction;
mortgage
RICHMOND
and
(2) g e n e r a l
in r e t a i l
residential
and
volume
improvement
in e m p l o y m e n t ;
on
-
in
demand
increase
for
the
business
in
immecondi-
tions .
Although
consensus
orders
of
and
months
hosiery
in r e t a i l
three months
is n o t e d
when
as
indicate
improvement
Automobile
sales
from
reduced
of
new
and
metals
Reporters
services
the
dismal
output
or
and
district
sales
significantly
fibers,
the
elec-
weakness
materials,
improvement.
bankers
seasonal
remain weak,
auto
of
Important
that
some
the
backlogs
in b u i l d i n g
in l i n e w i t h
reportedly
and
synthetic
indicate
stability
sales,
orders,
are mixed,
of D e c e m b e r .
chemicals,
remains.
trade
manufacturers
the m o n t h
nonferrous
in
improvement
volume
industries
several
and
district
during
Businessmen
tations.
sales.
weak
equipment,
furniture,
from
shipments,
in s u c h
the p a s t
report
that
continued
producers
trical
is
reports
expec-
although
reports
affected
of
some
the
past
district
Manufacturers
of
finished
been
are
goods,
reduced.
reported
less
tinue
well
comments
in
may
their
reduction
nificant
in
among
is
bankers
in
the
metals,
and
Respondents
are
no
in r e t a i l
their
the
have
become
although
district
as
employment
declines
have
an
con-
reports
bankers
indicate
decid-
they
District
report
tapered
increase
off,
in
employ-
their
respec-
expected.
that
and
the m a n u f a c t u r i n g
in
length
continue
declines
labor
of
supplies
in
sector,
the w o r k w e e k s .
to i n f l u e n c e
the
by
the
trade
in p r i c e s
and
for
the
some
further
Several
sig-
employment
during
on w a g e s
of p r i c e
second
durable
the p a s t
however,
nonferrous
and
nondur-
four
report
is r e p o r t e d l y
increases
consecutive
in c h e m i c a l s ,
in b o t h
services,
pressure
reports
producers
manufacturers,
change
Upward
outweigh
in D e c e m b e r
reported
report
advances.
in
price
Most
District
levels
district.
coal.
across
that
report
the
inventories
reportedly
Respondents'
employment
services
manufacturers
Declines
lines,
in
in
inventory
manufacturers,
to s t a b i l i z e .
areas
however,
of
month.
strong
high,
current
have
in e m p l o y m e n t
indicate
and
inventories
increases.
seasonally
reported
district
price
as
remain
Reports
tion
trade
strikes,
situation
able
received
in D e c e m b e r
areas
district
of
increases
preferred.
declines
reports
respective
District
tive
among
slight
however,
than
be beginning
reporters
ment
areas,
further
numerous
situation
and
of
further
retailers'
to be h i g h e r
to o u t n u m b e r
as
that
while
In b o t h
Reports
edly
report
weeks.
continued
continuing
board.
bankers
respective
report
areas
that
on b a l a n c e
remains
weak,
residential
but
the
construc-
proportion
reporting
from
the
increases
respondents
residential
is yet
sumer
loan
to r i s e
field,
moderately
for
bankers
demand,
business
to h a v e
however,
slightly.
expectation
Nonresidential
demand
district
an
construction
to i n c r e a s e
The
by
indicate
occurring.
continued
continues
but
of
no
increased
however,
the p a s t
loans
and
declined
four
reportedly
recovery
reportedly
loans
during
increased
in
weeks.
mortgage
sharply
received
activity
significant
building,
in
Comments
is
reported
December.
during
the
Con-
same
period.
The
degree
concerning
While
from
the
the
prices,
indicate
inventory
unresolved
problems
at
favorable
some
district
been
signs
mentioned
excess
present.
of
respondents
diminishing
discouragement
respondents
and
survey
on b a l a n c e ,
in e m p l o y m e n t ,
frequently
levels
has
stronger
weakness
Manufacturing
among
outlook
remains
to e x h i b i t
been most
dence.
high
outlook
economy
optimism
economic
respondents
rising
have
the
of
comments
over
the
recovery.
and
in p a r t i c u l a r
for
September
received
failure
of
Continued
the e f f e c t s
as r e a s o n s
productive
since
of
lack
continue
capacity
strikes
of
to
among
conficite
their
SIXTH
A research
indicated
slight
purchases
of
department
year
less
sales.
of
increases
lowered
in
tors
of
the
type
of
incomes
other
men
According
East
Nashville
hand,
preferring
The
highest
per
cent.
though
a store
cent
decline.
tion
strike
that
consumers
chasing
sales
The
of
the
New
has
continued
big
for
at
in TV
a TV
sellers
at
consensus
been
at
least
sales
tube
and
gain
the n e x t
stream
have
not
been
by
direc-
opposition
to
any
Directors,
Nashville
reported
a 1-
that
it
All
with
on
the
business-
"buying
down,"
"sales
not
will
months.
sales
was
2-per
cent
to a
move
were
Toys,
as w e l l
continue
gain,
a 10
per
indicated
is,
be
slow.
off
which
as
pur-
expected,
very
laying
4.5
construc-
that
As might
the
Atlanta,
surveyed.
experienced
TV's,
by
in
were
respondents
in K n o x v i l l e .
did
to
attributed
evidenced
six
of
conducted
in D e c e m b e r
particularly
that
rates
executives
of m e r c h a n d i s e .
Christmas,
a steady
policy,
store
largely
plant
continued
expectation
Branch
incomes
settled.
is
executives
controls.
to p r a c t i c e
lines
was
an
indicated
this w a s
now
adamant
Orleans,
respondents
Birmingham
loan
Surveys
department
"high-ticket * items,
general
by"
to r i g i d
seven
However,
sluggishness
usually
come
in
of
an
reports,
Jacksonville
year-to-year
expensive
1,600 workers
The
of
that
less
The
store
in D e c e m b e r ,
and
consumer
indicate
Birmingham,
Most
and
Branch
28,
estimated
in s a l e s
Florida.
guidelines
department
to n e w s p a p e r
some v e r s i o n
On D e c e m b e r
Jacksonville,
gains
or
policy.
expect
of
merchandise,
continues
Tennessee
- ATLANTA
survey
to y e a r
expensive
sluggish
price
DISTRICT
of
are
expected.
to be hard
tc
Sluggishness
a
factory
who
representative
reported
other
in e x p e n s i v e
hand,
that
for
merchandise
a high-quality
orders
were
off
30 p e r
retail
sales
were
reported
actual
or p r o p o s e d
was
line
cent
very
also
reported
of m e n ' s
this
clothing,
spring.
strong
by
On
in O r l a n d o
the
and
Knoxville.
Many
to our
dents
attention:
of
rates
telephone
rates
central
Florida
15-word
messages
nine west
telegraph
rates
on
in K n o x v i l l e
prices
wages
from
by
$1
to
price
up
20 per
$1.50.
an a v e r a g e
in G e o r g i a
gasoline
petitioned
the
ICC
of
11.35
tax
for
has
for m o s t
from
per
been
a rate
A
for
resi-
Florida
$2.75,
and
have
raised
cocktail
construction
2-cent
recommended.
hike.
and
come
to
raised
cent.
to
intrastate
$2.25
Airlines
recently
continue
Georgians
counties,
cent.
TVA
increases
per
Louisiana
milk
workers'
gallon
Railroads
gas
increase
have
prices
also
may
be
raised .
Special
reports
indicate
that
trade
is
reported
to be h o l d i n g
along
the G o l d
Coast.
mixed.
The Gulf
Coast
advance
bookings
are weak
Orlando
areas
getting
underway
open
South
there
groves,
some
fruit
Georgia
they
of
an
prosperous.
in T a m p a ,
in M a r c h .
Florida.
Florida
that
remain
expect
late
but
the
may
be
that
November
crop
left
businessmen
in h o u s i n g
also
think
inflation
than
unemployment.
to rot
on
cut
to be
and
is
will
strong
through
so
but
in
west
abundant
trees.
by
in b u s i n e s s
a local
this
construction
and
will
of
be more
airport
remains
is
up w e l l ,
building
a swath
expected
season
The Tampa
$80-million
freeze
is s t i l l
tourist
office
construction
surveyed
pickup
35-story
the n e w
Residential
The
a modest
increase
and
A
the F l o r i d a
newspaper
year,
consumer
a problem
report
mainly
because
spending.
in
the
They
state
An administrator
in
the A t l a n t a
from
the
Meanwhile,
due
to
vicinity
transfer
He a t t r i b u t e d
of
of
the
reports
students
switching
several
economic
a publicly
private
from
to
Directors
are nearly
unanimous
in
guidelines
and
They
that
those
tary
are
by
in
are
of
other
rates
a drop
businessmen
enrollment
vigorous
surveyed
opposition
long
philosophically
repugnant
and
are worried
that
will
be wasted
only
support
loan
East
1969
is
where
and
among
Tennessee,
One
that
and
reported
was
easy
consumer
the y e a r .
rates
during
is
Director
or
by
for w a g e
to r e p o r t s ,
during
away
at
workers
such
1970.
monetary
workers
An
still
did
have
rate
for
not
increase
bank,
striking
in
of
by
mone-
fiscal
not
encountshop.
been
reductions
the
rise
stability
along
consumer
especially
at
Budget.
Most
made
and
price
formal
in a b a r b e r
rates
explanation
and
that
guidelines
although
rates
and
progress
price
loan
one Atlanta
are
past
them
Federal
unworkable.
the p a i n f u l
by
to w a g e
is
area,
colleges.
in
jawboning
delinquencies
Lakewood
report
benefited
slowdown.
for
in F l o r i d a
consumer
and
strong
time
Nashville
expected
their
their
the
According
lowered
economic
a balanced
The
any
general
college
has
private
of
restraint
ered
institution
support
surveyed
policies.
two-year
conditions.
Nashville
controls
the
his
expensive
colleges
Our
argue
that
supported
GM.
with
loan
in
the
SEVENTH
Retail
labor
continues
remains
very
shipments
very
are
sales
large
cellent.
are
and
continued
Total
retail
trade
to b e
cases)
items.
Price
drastic
than
growth:
some
Results
but
are
in p a s t
of
expanding
the n u m b e r
colleges,
and
tone h a s
shopping
areas
centers.
promotions
avoiding
reductions
been
and
a gradual
high
be
ex-
financial
on
somewhat.
surged
have varied
shopping
to s a l e s
The n u m b e r
is
apparently
Downtown
will
producers
cautious
relatively
steel
new
Overall,
rise
in
unemployment
inflation.
a stronger
to s u b u r b a n
in m a n y
supply
sales
weeks.
responding
but w i t h
price
and
anticipate
have
firms
remain
in
other
of
equipment
output
but
has m o d e r a t e d
leaders
1971,
however.
Lenders
supply
a rise
inflows
of b u s i n e s s
The
capital
vehicle
for G . M . ,
Savings
inflation
for
indicate
Motor
quarter
positions
general
post-Christmas
lose
in
Christmas,
tailers,
quarter.
financial
CHICAGO
Demand
trends
schedules.
Price
activity
demand.
improving.
-
in l a t e D e c e m b e r .
order
first
Liquidity
business
before
first
the
commitments.
and
New
output
institutions
total
to o u t r u n
the
in
cutting
increased
slow.
in
DISTRICT
in
last
week
continued
in
greatly
among
are
goods
on s a l e m e r c h a n d i s e
the
re-
continuing
Customers
(started
luxury
the
are
before
and
big
appear
to
said
Christmas
ticket
no
more
years.
job
for
of
seekers
a number
continues
of
reasons,
ex-servicemen,
the n u m b e r
of
to g r o w .
reduced
secondary
other
The
than
enrollment
workers
labor
natural
at
attempting
to
all
supplement
family
categories
applicants
for
has
improved.
new
hirings.
mands
of
of
training
less
Despite
organized
for
reduced
levels.
are
translated
going
The
ahead
slump
ducers
firms
in
have
decided
in
a month
demand
Some
began
several
Some
months
for
curtailing
salaries
cisions .
has
past
service
hurt
some
at,
restrict
de-
standards.
remain
but
at
these
are
improvement.
district
A number
outlays
selling,
utilities
of
pro-
important
or b e l o w ,
on a b r o a d
customers
delayed
December
inventory
steel
in
steel
local
year
has
day
faded
ahead
will
de-
for
with
are
of
of
at
dates
especially
l a c k of
reduced
funds.
revenues
and
encouraging
steel
as
in
their
strike
next
prices
1970.
in M i c h i g a n ,
Higher
is
the
guaranteed
in
to
Foreign
months
stimulated
expiration
various
about
deliveries
in r e c e n t
be
front
tax p u r p o s e s .
inventories
orders
the
for
companies
governments,
programs
coupled
to
values
Auto
60-90
prior
a full
Some
and
of
markets,
equipment
improve
to r e v i v e .
to lay
protection.
by
Public
tools.
capital
labor
heavy
in
to s h a r p l y
to
for A m e r i c a n
suppliers
cutting
quality
to be n u m e r o u s ,
expansion
to k e e p
orders
year-end
expected
fixed
and
people
door-to-door
easing
sales.
industry
The
continue
remain
said
hit
1971.
ago.
minimize
are
for
of
as
of b u s i n e s s
actual
the a i r c r a f t
machinery
Steel
not
plans
of
preciation
groups
Inquiries
with
signs
types
into
such
managements
worker
has
experience.
jobs,
these
most
Unemployment
and
desired
Meanwhile,
Orders
not
income.
wages
necessitated
are
and
these
de-
Savings
high,
inflows
often record,
institutions
demand
at
Policy
loan
at
levels
in b o t h
large
commercial banks
demand
at
life
banks
and
S & Ls h a v e
been
at
in r e c e n t
months.
This
and
cities.
Business
is
small
far b e l o w
insurance
is
last y e a r ' s
companies
very
true
of
loan
levels.
continues
to
moderate.
One
base,
large
despite
decision was
other
reduce
actions
bank
the
decided
relatively
apparently
will
be
the e f f e c t i v e
recently
high
based
on
t a k e n by
cost
of
cost
the
to m a i n t a i n
of
these
funds.
expectation
the F e d e r a l
retaining
its
that
Reserve
Eurodollar
Eurodollar
This
some
System
to
balances.
EIGHTH
Reports
mistic
sales
are
regarding
were
are
stant,
larger
output
this
year.
ulation.
respect
substantial
in
the
above
in
sales
and
investment
point
planned
that
inflation
the
will
gains
in
through
Christmas
current
continue
sales
and
high
levels
that
demand
gains
the
investment
capacity
opti-
employees
the m o d e r a t e
capital
more
indicating
holding
to h o l d
production
believe
still
some
to
ago.
the h i g h e r
and
expect
rate
slightly
than a m o n t h
Although
firms
to both
business
and
during
Cautious
of
began
District,
and
conand
already
current
continues
to
inventory
accum-
rate
throughout
optimism
as
the m a n u f a c t u r i n g
however,
continues
of n e w
capital
equipment
of
to
employees
is
the
plans
the r e p l a c e m e n t
levels
for
had
much
of
most
unemployof
the
of
Christmas
into
1971.
in p a r t
of
1970;
than
sales
to
approached,
This
reflects
the
extended
influence
on
year.
expansion
are
later
report
a depressing
A period
generally
as
maintained
the b u s i n e s s
firms.
as no m a j o r
investment
and
strikes
shopping
chains
levels
expected
in St. L o u i s
part
retail
earlier
over
Teamsters
Christmas
leading
have been
activity
a large
their
year
levels
conditions
General Motors
New
of
expected
retail
depressed
hiring
of
higher
customers
Eighth
the h i g h e r
increase
most
year.
builders
this
tightening
outlook
are
year.
be w e l l
the
rate
Home
LOUIS
expectations,
manufacturing
Although
and
the
Respondents
and
normal
above
- ST.
of b u s i n e s s m e n
economic
the new
expect
with
current
into
year.
and
Belt
prevail
the
reducing
achieved
a sample
generally
continuing
they
ment
from
DISTRICT
outlook
of
generally
obsolete
general
plans
limited
is e x p r e s s e d
are
retrenchment,
in p r o s p e c t ,
to r e p l a c e m e n t
restricted
facilities.
by
and
personnel.
to l a b o r
saving
Home
and
this
cent
of
building
industry
above
the
new housing
earlier,
and
builders
point
but
also
they
retard
as
of
business
the
in
1971
to a v e r a g e
Last
year
relatively
low
level
units
to
constructed
the
for
lower
that
for
homes.
new
the
drawn
homes
against
were
down
of
One
a
while
in b a n k i n g .
Banks
funds
Home
sign,
tends
to
and
some
rates
paid
this
tendency
report
a
more
past
and
per
year
cent.
liquidity,
to
15
number
optimistic
referred
insufficient
from
35 per
credit
banker
area,
the
unemployment
increasing
for
St. L o u i s
cent
as an
rate
demand
squeeze
55 per
rates
report
stable.
profit
1970.
down
the h i g h e r
declining
generally
checks
was
new
institutions
at
of
interest
observe
rising
due
loans.
Agriculture
poor
in
construction
the p r o s p e c t i v e
number
up
new
concern
remain
turned
expects
Financial
savers
already
expenditures
demand
express
has
harvesting
tion w a s
was
in r e t u r n s
to
the E i g h t h
weather
reduced
harvested
in
of
during
District
the a u t u m n
substantially
by
below
quality,
cotton
average
farmers.
Returns
have been
relatively
low
soybean
producers
have
quite
The
continuing
activity
is
of
planning
further
ment,
however,
total
demand,
inflation
concern
upward
that
and
to m o s t
price
moderate
that
the
months.
in
causing
to
recent
affected
Cotton
and
produc-
the
a further
livestock
and
months,
while
by
cotton
reduction
poultry
rice
pro-
and
well.
despite
the s l o w d o w n
businessmen
policies
should
against
in
interviewed,
adjustments.
fight
adversely
adverse weather,
duction
fared
was
There
is
business
and
general
prevail with
inflation
should
many
are
agree-
respect
to
continue.
NINTH
Businessmen
cerned
some
about
type
though
due
"incomes
in
the
to
labor
the
spending
the
sumers
look
year.
According
farm
level.
for
loan
our
farm
demand
also
latest
income
and
many
of m a j o r
to b e
feel
if
con-
that
further
granted
in
equaled
if not
1970.
that
in e c o n o m i c
spending
because
of
credit
to a q u e s t i o n
on
the
labor
in
1971,
Christmas
bettered
district
activity
credit
are
Al-
disputes^
difficult
agricultural
and
to be
to be a c h i e v e d .
disclose
recovery
is h i g h
are
expected
probably
continue
be necessary
is f r e e
concessions
a modest
district
is
Reports
to
District
performance,
present
district
sales
MINNEAPOLIS
inflation
bargaining
year's
survey,
of
at
large wage
in
-
policy" will
rate
the D i s t r i c t
district
the N i n t h
the e c o n o m y ' s
of
reductions
in
DISTRICT
last
con-
next
conditions
depressed,
extensions
and
and
refinancing.
In
"incomes
response
policy"
directors
indicated
the a d o p t i o n
are,
abhor
comes
type
some
many
type
of
as
generally
favor
some
type
that
policy"
not
in his
of
rigid
they
wouldn't
did
to
the
in his
work
not
and
favor
that
an
such
did
director
"incomes
should
program
or
an
policy"
"in-
voluntary
involuntary
stated
and
director
support
a jawboning
a rigid
bank
Businessmen
One
not
an
support
a policy
controls.
that
Another
policy."
of v o l u n t a r y
area
of
inflation,
businessmen
form
type
believed
be a c c e p t a b l e .
area
district
wage-price
businessmen
for
to f u r t h e r
"incomes
vague
program
would
that
very
any
reported
men
of
however,
take and
as a d e t e r r e n t
desirability
that
and
program
business-
felt
the
problem
could
labor.
Two
to w e r e
reluctant
One
labor
with
leader
early
disputes
bank
for
for
trades.
did
the
in
1970 and
management
District
equaled
however,
were
and
and
practical.
tended
are aggressive
were
and
those who
Reports
vations
this
down
this
were
reported
bettered
one
year.
the
year.
to h a v e
policy."
along
broadened
to
union
of m a j o r
A
labor
survey
are
in
of
scheduled
construction
membership
wage
will
strike
be
will
concessions
difficult
for
leadership.
offered
that
free
several
that
during
last
and
to p u r c h a s e
As
go
of
talked
"incomes
Airlines
the l a r g e
cautious
price
director
the
sales
E v e at
Automobile
improved
in
conscious
value
as u s u a l
sales
had
expensive
a good
and
hotels
couple
did
luxury
that
and
of
Con-
their
retailers
in o n e a r e a
last
in
less
revealed
Cities
season
levels.
probably
ticket
survey
the
sales
indicated,
of big
Twin
Christmas
that w e r e
consumer
business
the
year's
items
A newspaper
for N e w Y e a r ' s
were
for
spending
conducted
indicate
off
union
if not
of
was
negotiations
bargaining
consumer
spending
while
that
and
and
they
he would
seven m o n t h s .
indicated
because
an
power
dividends.
District
labor
granted
more
and
that
director
of
that
the N o r t h w e s t
workers
leaders
a policy
reveals
satisfy
sumers,
such
the N i n t h
mine
labor
however,
profits
of
the m o n o p o l y
the a d o p t i o n
in
to
probably
if
that
time
the
One
breaking
first
be hard
both
state,
wages,
left
directors
1971
to s u p p o r t
settlement
December
by
reported
controls
besides
The
corrected
directors
wage-price
include,
in
be
who
season,
poorly.
items
reserrestaurants
the
district
of w e e k s .
Upper
Michigan
has
business
is v e r y
farmers
farm
excellent
in his
good.
area
machinery
snow
conditions
Also,
recently
one
director
have
and w e r e m a k i n g
this y e a r ,
been
disclosed
shopping
purchases
and
if
its
that
around
they
ski
for
received
price
concessions.
Bank
expect
in
economic
1970.
his
directors
One
area
are
depleted
by
The
generally
conditions
director,
going
to
in
1971
however,
take
Christmas
report
results
of our
of
agricultural
credit
income
in
the d i s t r i c t
a reduced
over
needs
dations.
to lend
usual
and
has
abnormally
that
in
come
and
pect
in
the n e x t
any
the
and
three
of
areas
affect
than
that m e r c h a n t s
no
in
inventories
of
there will
for
caused
credit
in
factors,
be
even
credit
also
the n e w
during
farm
the
the
lower
loan
1971
ability
banks
expect
farm
and
inre-
ex-
requests
that
corn
program
a
tide-
however,
revealed
the d i s t r i c t ' s
and
by
or
extension
bankers,
farm
consoli-
Bankers
credit-worthy
survey
income
or
depressed
purchases
loans
ratios.
agricultural
expect
farm
seasonal
demand
bankers
quarterly
reveals
extensions
of
The
1
bankers' willingness
in m e e t i n g
farm
January
short-term
to d e p o s i t s
more
months.
number
consumers
better
in r e b u i l d i n g
level
loan
months
Practically
producing
to a d v e r s e l y
for
loan
difficulties
next
for
because
three
spending
significant
grains
high
somewhat
conditions
agricultural
increased
have
financing.
demand
requests
Although
time
district
buying.
preliminary
than
to b e
reported
their
survey
stronger
that
and
a
small
legislation
crop
year.
TENTH
The
economy
District.
This
activity,
and
policy
loan
ally
are
there
weakness,
easing
emphasizing
an
and
liquidity
cause
uncertainties
in m o s t
substantial
combined
impact
more
positions.
they
CITY
parts
in c o n t i n u e d
investment
improved
of
is
is h a v i n g
demand
- KANSAS
buoyancy
is r e f l e c t e d
This
stance,
With
lacks
although
sector.
DISTRICT
the
want
perceive
region
monetary
commercial
which
banks
are
to r e m a i n
relative
by
easing
available,
portfolios
Tenth
business
variability
on d i s t r i c t
They
the
sluggish
with
funds
of
to
banks.
gener-
aimed
at
flexible
future
be-
rate
movements.
Business
activity
affected
by
the
aircraft
industry,
corporations
and
is
have
Government
still
General
and
has
also
being
or
in s k i
is
such
important
affected
of
by
Business
they
by
of
of
by
the
at
rates
Junction,
Government
Kansas
Colorado,
uranium
City
slow-
severe
econis
industry.
that
actions
have
and
Colorado,
are
Domestic
where
as
planes
in C o l o r a d o
Government
cities
--
current
the
is d e p r e s s e d .
of
soft
the
construction
recreation
increase
most
in
in O k l a h o m a ,
Business
of v a r i o u s
been
executive
experienced
Economies
as G r a n d
curtailment
to
of
long
as m u c h
outdoor
activity
because
the
activity
not
remains
In a d d i t i o n ,
areas.
continues
activity.
such
have
a strong
Mining
down
weak.
has
Employment
purchases
impact
the o t h e r
areas
better.
is
the
Missouri
in W i c h i t a ,
been affected
sustained
exploration
couraging
not
because
misfortunes
Activity
from
and
slowdown.
their
remain
strikes.
omic
normal
curtailed
contracts
Motors
largely
economic
particularly
suffering
Nebraska
down,
current
in K a n s a s
oil
dis-
uranium
been
purchases.
mining
adversely
Since
and
retail
consumer
omic
sales
spending
growth
in 1 9 7 1 ,
this m o n t h .
Reports
discount
houses
compared
with
mostly
of
the
disappointing
fore
Christmas.
this
the
large
up
ested
a
of
well
store
that
about
cent.
prices.
stores
with
pre-Christmas
used
ing
any
extra
campaigns
economic
efforts
said
this
appointing
promotion
On
were
also
such
reductions
stores
that
not
the o t h e r
stress
continue
activities
said
that
on v a l u e
had
made
as
this
they
any
many
had
-- and
to
sales
and
inter-
to
sales
due
weak
sales.
they
had
advertis-
to
generally
just
while
intensified
used
are
increased
whether
the
good
sales
promotional
stores
undertaken
had
usually
caters
exhibit
the
were
surprisingly,
sales,
year
be-
regional
fall
special
of
gains
strong
asked
reported
hand,
that
this
post-Christmas
sales
stores
had
sales
in
responsible
customers
items
gains,
just
One
their
and
as
sales
again
Somewhat
gift
stores
strong
price
they
records
-- w i t h
sales.
Most
that
year.
sales
advertising
retail
earlier
slowdown.
in D e c e m b e r
report
promotional
or
reported
Generally,
also
surveyed
luxury
stores
partly
when
econ-
December
the b e s t
that
to
surveyed
good
stores.
reasonable
Christmas
The
said
year
reported
early
been
had
slowdowns
before
weak
that
of
December,
others
in
have
economic
customers
again
generally
sales
may
stores
in
a clue
during
while
order-department
specializes
income
10 per
at
as
substantially
stores
such
time
department
sales
that
conditions
during
quality
above-average
by
of
in
improved
this
were
some
having
reported
stores
year;
After
at
watched
-- w i t h
last
Generally,
a chain
in good
retail
a decline
then
Weather
combination
quite
large
but
important
closely
mixed
nature.
pattern.
controller
hold
were
stores
were
for
district
same month
several
so
is b e i n g
reporting
a modest
November,
are
with
special
more
price
dis-
Generally,
cated
that
sales
than
during
say
popular.
that
What
well
supplies,
ually
are
these
domestics
banks.
loan
ing
Banks
demand
of
banks
from
to b e
policy,
term
and
them.
are
Some
months,
explains
to
and
the
ways.
most
that
under
loan
continued
models.
demand
are
cautious
coming
to
toward
the
weak
repurchas-
loan
policy
however,
In
their
in
shorter-
instances,
purchasing
interest
the
to s t r e n g t h e n .
approach
in
District
they w e r e
in
be
contin-
dealers
generally,
pressure
to
weeks.
Tenth
long-term
cost
short
are
many
funds
the
seem
on
they
in s o m e
recently,
likely
sales
but
especially
at
cars
positions.
and,
upward
to b e
reacting
-- p l a c i n g
that
not
aggressive
More
of
year-earlier
to a c o n t i n u e d
liquidity
the v i e w
is
for
a more
cases.
until
are
say
at m a n y
funds
sales
subcompacts,
is m a k i n g
to e a s e
municipals,
lower
the
slow
prospects
cautious
renewed
in
makes
traffic
1970 were
Foreign
blame
foreign
indi-
comparable
appears
In a d d i t i o n
their
expressed
come
achieving
sales
in s o m e
are
the
district
that
introductions
companies,
Funds where,
banks
in
the
report
interest
investable
short-term
Federal
likely
ample
they
dealers
continuing
fortify
investment
selling
is
about
holding
to
are
of
in D e c e m b e r
above
some
showroom
developing
continue
notes
GM
dealers
Little
with
were
domestic
they
in s e v e r a l
loans
appears
some
demand
cars
American-made
pessimistic
Loan
new
everywhere.
out.
in a l l p a r t s
However,
showing
success
while
sold
1969.
November
one-size-larger,
selling
dealers
new A m e r i c a n
through
Shoppers
dealers
of
of
December
1970 m o d e l s
period.
auto
rates
coming
This
liquidity.
partly
ELEVENTH DISTRICT
The outlook
with
guarded
economists
tial
optimism
in
cipate
see
with
cost-push
as a
and
the
they
as
some
activity
of
fifteen
While
along
rate will
the m a j o r
of
currently
they
and
expect
some
a
viewed
business
substan-
decline
the m a j o r i t y
in
also
anti-
remain
fairly
high.
Moreover,
problem
facing
policy
makers
the p r i m a r y
incomes
is
academic
with
inflation,
being
form
1971
cause
policy
of
the
continued
is g e n e r a l l y
favored
solution.
real
cipate
and
of
DALLAS
of
District.
still
pressures
-- and
half
a sample
unemployment
The economists
and
first
the r a t e
inflation
inflation
by
in e c o n o m i c
rates
that
the
the E l e v e n t h
recovery
interest
for
-
GNP
in
continued
a healthy
from
the
strong
manufacturers
as
for
in
a hedge
consumer
in s t a t e
expect
sales
assumption
no
Virtually
none
tributory
factor
The
to
rate
believe
the
either
that
the
respondents
unemployment
erally
feel
of
current
1971.
residential
durables
(the
of
steel
a possible
Most
resulting
lost
during
inventories
steel
anti-
construction
latter
in a u t o m o b i l e s
dollar
by
strike was
the m o r e b u l l i s h
of
local
expenditures,
only
government
a mild
regarding
increase
hedging
business-fixed
the
in
in s t e e l
investment
will
also
respondents
while
automobile
inventories.
be a
con-
recovery.
also
during
rate
from
A buildup
and
in b o t h
quarters
sales
against
the m o r e b e a r i s h
or m a k e
and
In a d d i t i o n
strength
rise
second
performance
strike).
mentioned.
a sharp
and
of p r o d u c t i o n
the G e n e r a l M o t o r s
look
first
recovery
a makeup
widely
expect
anticipate
the
of
first
half
inflation
very
of
little
1971.
will moderate
change
While
in
they
further
the
gen-
over
--
the n e x t
six m o n t h s ,
as a c r i t i c a l
tinued
incomes
full-scale
ployment
it
wage
rate
is c l e a r
and
problem
persistence
temporary
only
it
to b e
as
all
funds,
the p r i m a r y
cipate
largely
due
that
with
and
to
the
little
short-
lower
in
the
need
in
a
support
unem-
inflation
makers.
1971
--
policy,
but
slack
expectations
declines.
f u n d s by
that
interest
of
monetary
long-term
for
policy
inflationary
expected
over
half
con-
moderate,
long-term
first
the
the
inflation
facing
viewed
even
though
concerned
easier
of
for
a few
even
and
is
however,
and
and
the
citing
change
rising
high
problem
an a b a t e m e n t
for
suggest,
are more
both
some
accounting
Thus,
remain
the p r i m a r y
reasons
relatively
to
situation
be necessary
controls.
to m o v e
so —
factor
Some
respondents
feel
continue
for
might
price
the
slightly
demand
inflation.
policy
and
wage-price
the m a i n
is e x p e c t e d
Nearly
will
and
of
that
consider
rates
the c u r r e n t
But
interest
a few
anti-
rates,
the F e d e r a l
Govern-
ment .
Opinion
jected
Some
$10-15
express
aggravate
is a b o u t
billion
concern
evenly
Federal
that
rate
stating
the d e f i c i t
that
revenues
and
With
region
fared
the rest
economy
of
is
and
to b e
regard
to
problem.
sluggish
for
of
the
this
of
the
such
the y e a r
1970,
it
the n a t i o n .
in p a r t
The
in m a n y
fiscal
year
in v i e w
are
shortfall
the
1971.
tend
of
pro-
to
the
high
unconcerned,
in
Government
circumstances.
should
showing
increase
of
size will
respects,
favorable
a sharp
impact
activity,
under
well,
the
Others,
economic
is a r e s u l t
on
expected
unusually
reflected
Budget
a deficit
the i n f l a t i o n a r y
unemployment
divided
in
be n o t e d
that
this
in
comparison
with
of
the
district
the o u t p u t
of
crude
petroleum
cies
in
the
in T e x a s
heights.
In
second
and
Louisiana
turn
this
industrial
production
the n a t i o n
as
resulted
decline
here,
in a n
in
in
increase
the p r e c e d i n g
than
in
of
the y e a r
raised
increase
a whole.
particularly
stronger
half
the
region
crop
as
a
and
record
rise
in
1970,
for
conditions
following
construction
office
whole.
in
agen-
to a d e c l i n e
favorable weather
Finally,
in a p a r t m e n t s
to
to a s m a l l
contrast
production
year.
the n a t i o n
in
regulatory
allowables
contributed
Moreover
in
oil
as o i l
buildings,
a
activity
was
markedly
TWELFTH
Businessmen
a
continued
situation
slow
areas,
in s o m e
areas
reports
reflection
level
of
of
of
demand
what
but
prices
most
much
rather
buoyant
Washington.
big
count
of
stores
the
stores
women's
below
of
recent
of
the
were
in
department
last
clothing
there were
furs
and
fine
more
reluctant
in
year's
to
them,
sales.
marked
season
One
only
the
to b e
seemed
credit.
not
due
least
match
up
to
somehigher
and
the
were
registered
lines
the
chain
cent
of
difficulty
gain
such
of
and
in
the
dis-
openings
lines,
in
by
of
Sunday
a
lower
Even here
regional
in s a l e s
a
centers.
to h a v e
a 1 per
There
As
By r e g i o n ,
Higher-priced
seemed
and
year.
were
terms w a s
seemed
spread
did
sales
Utah;
sales.
production.
in v o l u m e .
and
this
increases
experiencing
dollar
shopping
the
Buyers
on
small
of
retail
the p r e v i o u s
are
report
effect
Christmas
on m e d i u m - p r i c e d
declines
jewelry.
One
general,
increase
stores.
reported
to b u y
in
increase
due
of
District
industrial
In
suburban
were
in
in A r i z o n a
the
of
the C h r i s t m a s
concentrating
based
activity.
banks
increase
of
the T w e l f t h
those
years.
a real
FRANCISCO
relatively
cutbacks
during
specializing
matching
and
were
sales
increases
regular-line
report
loans.
Most
in
the b e h a v i o r
for
sales
retailers
in
situation,
than
- SAN
in e c o n o m i c
further
this
increases
bankers
retailers
sales
Retail
the
pace
is a p p a r e n t
In most
are
and
DISTRICT
some
by
the
even
high-priced
in d o l l a r
specialties
to b e p r i c e - c o n s c i o u s
sales
as
and
As
greatest
has
been
problems.
described
as
down
Delinquencies
but
yet
source
not
of
in
out
some
difficulties
in T a c o m a
Some
smaller
increases
in
and
about
loans
line.
support
closed
in
Washington
sales
1969
consumer
of
to
and
The
lumber
the
local
output;
for
those
are
industry,
economy,
the
the
is s t i l l
high
retail
of
were
1968.
which
has b e e n
a
experiencing
pulp
sometime
market
Seattle-Tacoma
sales
area
somewhat
largest
until
the
up
is
the n a t i o n a l
in
and
to
mortgages
Overall,
to h a v e
Seattle-Tacoma
equal
in m i d - D e c e m b e r
producing
continues
the
orders.
and
and
in
paper
January.
have
had
economy,
housing
starts
sign
increas-
fallen.
The pace
ing,
and
of
Orange
further
County
are
layoffs
its
continues
doing
selling
year.
for
staff.
to be
On
and
local
farmers
are
for
in U t a h .
first
supplies
hand,
have
in
or
in
In
Northern
further
steel
produc
agriculture
fruit
facilities
elec-
industrial
to a v o i d
District
A
the y e a r .
firm
copper
experienced
of
areas.
of
Arizona,
The Washington
cold-storage
in O r e g o n
in s o m e
in D e c e m b e r
the o t h e r
well.
the
and
A builders'
days
no
-- p a r t i c u l a r l y
California
ten
shows
continuing
layoffs
strong
relatively
well
Similarly,
Southern
down
activity
manufacturers
continuing.
shut
to b e
reductions
announced
of
California
of
industrial
larger
-- h a v e
cutbacks
tion
of
Oregon's
tronics
age
from
firms
unemployment
few
Retail
in m a i n t a i n i n g
mill
have
the c a s e ,
crop
has
are being
a better
seems
been
expande
than
aver
The
the
lower
have
slower
level
reported
changes
in
rate
of
improved
their
now
buying
charging
has
less
lowered
on
rates
one
year
deposits
of
shifting
their
search
loans
for
are
In
port
to
activity
men
are
plans.
does
their
the
new
has
lower
both
and
not
been
in b u s i n e s s
to
been
increasing,
are
this
and
others
in
their
in a b e t t e r
increase
and,
of
the
their
national
CD's
and
that
"saver-type"
time
shift
bankers
are
or
in p o l i c y ,
consumer
although
a source
to
strongly.
now
active
total
and
lend
of
sup-
Business
consequence,
investment
it
loans.
rapidly.
in
are
reported
aggressive
position
more
on
bank
rising
making
CD's
More
in
are
increasing
its
spending,
not
The
begin
of
they
Bankers
are
rates
large
and
and
banks.
in
banks
to a m o r e
Despite
cautious
finally
One
reflected
As part
more maturity.
remaining
banks
bonds.
policies
has
Some
interest
is
district
positions
on s o m e
consumer
economy,
at
outstanding
loans.
business.
summary,
the
their
paid
lending
lower
loans
municipal
are paying
activity
portfolios.
of
tax-exempt
for
liquidity
asset
average maturity
they
economic
demand
the
trend,
of
business-
production
when
demand
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (1971, January 11). Beige Book. Beige Book, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/beige_book_19710112
@misc{wtfs_beige_book_19710112,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Beige Book},
year = {1971},
month = {Jan},
howpublished = {Beige Book, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/beige_book_19710112},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}