Beige Book

SUMMARY OF COMMENTARY ON CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS

DECEMBER 1986

TABLE OF CONTENTS

SUMMARY ..........

.......

i

......................................

- Boston.......................................

I-1

Second District - New York......................................

II-1

Third District - Philadelphia..................................

III-i

First District

Fourth District - Cleveland.....................................

IV-1

Fifth District

- Richmond......................................

V-1

Sixth District

- Atlanta......................................

VI-1

Seventh District - Chicago.....................................

VII-1

Eighth District - St. Louis.....................................

VIII-1

Ninth District - Minneapolis..................................

IX-1

Tenth District - Kansas City....................................

X-l

Eleventh District - Dallas ......................................

'Xl-

Twelfth District - San Francisco

XII-1

SUMMARY*

District

report

Banks

Reserve

indicating some

from sluggish to generally good with more than half

recent

Strength in consumer

improvement.

the

widespread than in

a healthy

result

some

of

pace,

increase

sector

but

oversupply.

in

Manufacturing

prices

has

construction has

is

still

been

slowed

as a

relatively weak,

noted.

While

the

and

energy

remains depressed, an increase in the number of operating oil

Farmers experienced near-record corn and soybean

in some areas despite heavy rainfall, and livestock producers

are

benefitting

has

improved because of

in

somewhat more

Residential construction continues

nonresidential

input

rigs has occurred.

yields

is

spending

last report, and most retailers anticipate a

moderate to good holiday season.

at

ranging

conditions

economic

real

from

estate

and

promoting

actively

prices.

higher

loan

bank

activity

some upturn in business lending and strength

consumer

the

Commercial

use

lending.

of

home

commercial

Many

lines

equity

of

banks

are

credit

for

consumers to retain interest deductibility under the new tax law.

Consumer Spending

Philadelphia

Richmond

an

improvement

in

retail

sales.

districts

see

states that

sales were up strongly, and California and

Most

also

had

generally

good

gains.

Sales

were

sluggish

in

Boston, Cleveland, Dallas and St. Louis, but the remaining districts

*Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

are

based

on

information

available

prior

to

District reports

November

21,

1986.

report

moderate

increases.

Items

electronics,

furniture, and other

the

improvement

recent

anticipate

a

moderate

satisfactory

or

in

to

good

manageable

and

and

levels.

were

for

season.

Prices

As

apparel,

a result of

the

most

Inventories

part

are

(when mentioned)

at

were

However, Chicago attributed a jump in

prices

saw

significant

a

demand

retailers

holiday

apparel

Dallas

strong

home furnishings.

sales,

generally reported as stable.

textile

in

to

recently

imposed

increase

in

import

prices

restraints,

of

imported

electronics.

All

districts

September

and

a

reporting

sharp

dropoff

on

auto

sales

in

October,

had

strong

mirroring

the

gains

in

national

pattern.

Construction and Real Estate

Most

districts

though at

activity,

report

a somewhat

high

the

level

of

slower

residential

construction

pace than earlier this

year.

that home sales have been weakening due

The Richmond district notes

to

healthy

home

prices

there.

Atlanta

reports

a shift

away from construction of multi-family units because of a high level

of

condominium

to most

other

inventories

and

areas, residential

generally poor

demand.

In

contrast

building in the Dallas district is

substantially below a year earlier.

Nonresidential construction has

parts

In

of

New York where an

Chicago

and

Minneapolis,

continues at a steady pace.

vacancy

rates

in

the

slowed in Atlanta, Dallas and

oversupply of

however,

office space

work

on new

now exists.

office

buildings

Reflecting higher demand for space,

Minneapolis

district

fell

September for both office and industrial buildings.

between

June

and

iii

Manufacturing

Industrial

activity remains

relatively

weak,

and

plans

recently been announced for additional plant closings and

several districts.

will

result

and will

do

an

areas

overall

months.

aerospace

industry

competing

areas.

Many

Cleveland,

which

is

manufacturers

are

Some industries and districts

in

and

and

producers

(Boston,

and

holding

to

their

and Cleveland

manufacturing

Francisco

the

in

USX

the

Chicago,

Dallas)

attributed

their

San

doing well,

City

in the Chicago district

The Philadelphia

steel

some

as well.

Boston

districts

Kansas

job losses

improvement

Both

benefit

prices,

than 20,000

other

layoffs in

largest is the scheduled G.M. cutback, which

gains, however.

have seen

recent

in more

affect

report

The

have

the

own

that

and

York,

to

Cleveland

Philadelphia,

an

increase

in

the

decline

in

the

strike continues

New

prices

sectors

state

Chicago

mentioned

districts

in

input

dollar.

Most

firm, however.

Several

districts reported no discernible benefit from the dollar's decline,

San

Francisco

noted

that

increased

exports

of

electronic

products

and higher capital goods orders have resulted from the weaker dollar.

Energy and Resources

The

led to

stabilization

increased

an

However, the total

of

number

is

less

oil

of

prices

demand

low level.

The

and

San

for

than half the

wood

Francisco

steel

and

have

a

operating oil

and gas

number

is up somewhat

pipe

forest

higher

level

drilling

rigs.

somewhat

in operation a year

Chicago found that the oil and gas

ago in the oil-producing states.

industry's

at

products

improved

from a recent very

industries

further.

These

of Minneapolis

districts

report an upturn and brighter outlook in copper mining.

also

Agriculture

Despite

heavy

rainfall

experienced

record

or

Cleveland,

Kansas

City,

and

flooding

corn

near-record

Minneapolis

in many areas,

and

farmers

soybean yields

and

St.

Louis

in

the

districts.

Moreover, a feared storage crunch was alleviated by the rain-induced

stretch-out

of

the

harvest

season.

Attractive

alternatives

that

encouraged farmers to redeem their PIK certificates and sell rather

than

store

producers

from

The

grain

and

lower

San

also

dairy

feed

farmers

costs

Francisco

helped

and

avert

in

from

district

excess

several

districts

higher

reports

stockpiling.

livestock

a

record

are

and

Livestock

benefitting

milk

pistachio

prices.

crop

and

higher potato and grape prices, while Florida expects an 8 percent

increase in orange and grapefruit production over the year.

Financial Sector

Loan

activity

improved

somewhat

in

recent

weeks.

Philadelphia reports continued strength in commercial and industrial

loans and an upturn in consumer loans, and Atlanta also states that

lending has

slightly

loans

in

remained strong.

all

registering

major

the

Cleveland notes that loan demand rose

categories,

greatest

with

growth.

real

estate

A

marginal

and

consumer

increase

in

Cleveland's C&I loans represents an improvement following no growth

in

the

third quarter.

St. Louis also

reported

strong real estate

and consumer lending as well as some growth in commercial loans.

Several districts noted that banks

are promoting the use of

home equity lines of credit as a means for consumers to retain some

V

measure

of

interest

reported

that demand

region",

while

deductibility under

for

Chicago,

home equity

the

loans

new

"has

New York. Philadelphia,

tax

law.

Atlanta

surged across the

Richmond

and

St.

Louis noted an expansion in banks' promotion of these credit lines.

FIRST DISTRICT - BOSTON

Economic activity in the First District remains sluggish.

Retail

markets in the region softened in October and were mixed in early November;

nonetheless, sales remain solidly ahead of last year.

promotional activity is holding down prices.

Extensive

Manufacturers continue to

report that business is slow, with no evidence of a pickup.

Price

competition from both domestic and overseas producers is said to be very

intense.

Respondents are devoting much attention to cost containment.

Retailing

Several retail contacts reported sales below plan in October but

above last year.

November to date is much better in some stores, but

similar to October in others.

Year-to-date sales growth figures are

generally better than those for recent months.

The weakening occurred in

most product lines, although clothing categories were off more generally

than appliances and home electronics.

Inventories are high in some stores

but they are not reported to be a serious problem.

Prices have changed very little because retailers perceive a need

for persistent promotional price reductions.

According to one contact,

"Customers are looking for victory every time they go into a store."

In a

similar vein, a department store representative reported opting for more

and shorter sales events rather than a few traditional "big seasonal sales"

to satisfy consumer demand for more reduced-price merchandise.

The decline

in the value of the dollar may force some price increases, however.

A

contact from a discount chain expects vendor prices to rise fairly soon

I-2

because of exchange rate changes; the chain imports a substantial fraction

of its products.

This contact also expects to be buying more goods in the

United States in response.

But neither of these changes has yet occurred.

First District merchants are moderately optimistic about the

remainder of the year.

They expect "pretty good" Christmas sales,

finishing out the year with sales growth between 5 and 7 percent on a

comparable stores basis.

Manufacturing

Manufacturing activity in the First District remains slow.

Contacts have not experienced any deterioration in orders in recent months,

but with one exception they see no improvement.

Aerospace, consumer

electronics and housing-related products are reported to be doing well; the

general industrial market is flat to down; the demand for construction

materials and supplies is down, apparently in response to weakness in

nonresidential construction.

The decline in the value of the dollar has

been of no discernible benefit to most of the firms contacted.

Cost containment is receiving much emphasis.

Most respondents have

ongoing inventory control programs that are enabling them to operate with

lower inventories than in the past.

Employment levels are being reduced,

even at firms with satisfactory sales results; more attention is being paid

to the efficiency of white collar personnel.

Capital spending plans for

1987 are conservative; contacts planning to reduce spending outnumber those

planning increases.

The manufacturers contacted either report no increases in input

prices or report increases in the 2 to 4 percent range, which they expect

to offset with efficiencies in purchasing procedures.

Several respondents

have recently instituted increases in their own prices of about 3 percent.

However, competitive pressures are said to be very intense, with domestic

competitors mentioned as frequently as overseas producers.

New England Economic Project Outlook

The New England Economic Project (NEEP), a nonprofit corporation

made up of New England businesses and educational institutions, has just

released economic projections for the six New England states.

Taken

together, the six state forecasts call for employment growth in the region

to accelerate somewhat in 1987, then slow again in 1988.

of growth is projected to change.

The composition

While nonmanufacturing industries will

continue to account for most of the new jobs created in the region, the

manufacturing sector will not be the drag on the region's economy that it

was in 1985 and 1986.

NEEP forecasts that manufacturing employment will

increase, albeit very modestly, over the course of the next two years.

Unemployment rates in the region will average a little below 4 percent in

1987, slightly higher in 1988.

Per capita incomes in the region are

projected to increase relative to the national average.

II-1

SECOND DISTRICT--NEW YORK

The modest uptrend in the Second District economy continued in

recent weeks.

ranging

Retailers reported over-the-year

from moderate to

strong.

Business

very

activity

good

was

and

sales gains

residential

generally

steady

banks report that home equity

lines of credit

building remained

to

leasing of office space moderated in some areas.

in October

improved,

though

Small Second District

represent

only a small

further

over-the-year

portion of their consumer loans.

Consumer Spending

Second

District

retail

sales

showed

improvement during October with respondents describing gains as ranging

from moderate to very good.

be

an

important

accessories,

factor,

furniture

Purchases by foreign visitors continued to

particularly

and

home

in

New

furnishings

York

City.

were

cited

from

6-13

as

Apparel,

items

in

generally strong demand.

Sales

increases

during

October

were

percent

above

year-earlier levels and, in most cases, were 2 to 3 percent higher than

targeted.

As a result, inventories are well under control and respondents

do not anticipate the need for heavy promotional activity in

move merchandise during the coming Christmas season.

order to

Retailers generally

expect moderate over-the-year gains in holiday sales but one respondent,

whose

Christmas

catalogue

orders

have been

strong,

is

looking

for

a

double-digit increase.

Business Activity

Little

change

occurred

expansion since the last meeting.

managers

surveyed

in

Rochester

in

the

Second

District's

economic

Eighty percent or more of purchasing

and

Buffalo

reported

that

business

II-2

conditions were stable or improved during

October and three-fourths

of

the managers in the Syracuse area's third quarter survey also gave that

response.

While inventories were generally described as at satisfactory

levels, an increasing percentage of managers has been experiencing a rise

in commodity prices.

News concerning the District's employment outlook has been mixed

On the negative side, G.E. plans to end its color TV

in recent weeks.

tube operations in upstate New York, where it continues phasing out large

engine production, and ITT may cut back its international operations in

New York City.

and

On the other hand, several thousand jobs in the chemical

transportation equipment

industries have been

retained due

to

the

successful negotiation of some longstanding problems. In addition, a new

railway car plant

has

opened

operation in the garment

unemployment

rates

in

in Yonkers

and plans

for

industry have been announced.

New

York

State

and

New

a sizable

new

As of October,

Jersey

remained

1 1/2

percentage points below the national average.

With

regard

to

the

District's

longer

term

development,

New

Jersey officials recently announced plans for the first new rail line in

the

New

York

metropolitan

region

in

50

years.

The

$825

million

trolley-bus system will link billions of dollars of proposed residential

and commercial projects along 15 miles of the Hudson River waterfront.

Construction and Real Estate

Activity among District homebuilders continued strong in recent

weeks, though the pace was less hectic than at the height of the season

in the spring and summer.

builders in

several

After two years or more at a record pace,

areas report

that pent-up demand seems

finally to

have been satisfied, and they anticipate a more normal but healthy rate

of activity in 1987.

While some seasonal slack will occur over the next

II-3

few months, a number of builders have already signed contracts

for homes

to be constructed in the spring of next year.

Leasing activity in the commercial

slow

to

moderate

weeks.

A major

pace

in

much

exception

was

of

the

real estate market was at a

Second

District

downtown Manhattan

financial center buildings remained strong.

where

during

recent

leasing of

new

While no dramatic absorption

of space occurred in areas such as northern New Jersey, Fairfield County,

and

Westchester County,

exist,

few

months.

major

new

where

more

projects

have

As a result, vacancy rates

year declines.

However, in

than ample

been

supplies of office space

undertaken

there

in

recent

in these areas have shown over-the-

downtown and

mid-Manhattan, where

many

new

buildings have come on line, rates have moved somewhat higher though they

are still well below the national average.

Financial Developments

Small banks in the Second District report that home equity lines

of credit

consumer

currently represent only a small

loans.

While

all

of the

portion of their outstanding

surveyed

banks have

increased

their

efforts to market the product, each expected only moderate growth in its

volume

rapid

of

these

growth

non-banks

and

loans

would

also

be

through

restrained

by

refinancing arrangements.

of the

1987.

a

by

continued

Several

banks

competition

surge

in

additional cash

from

flow for

business.

that

other

second

more

banks

and

mortgages

Loan officers state that the most

credit line include consolidating debt,

providing

believe

and

common uses

financing education, and

The

banks

they can prevent consumers from using the line of credit

suggested

that

as a proxy for

other types of consumer loans by providing counseling and by maintaining

high

underwriting

standards.

However,

only

one

bank

indicated

that

it

required its applicants to provide information on how the money is to be

used, and none used this type of information as a criterion for lending.

III-1

THIRD DISTRICT - PHILADELPHIA

Economic conditions in the Third District are generally good.

Manufacturing activity increased in November for the fifth month in a row, and

retail sales rose strongly in October and November following slower than

expected growth in September.

Total loan volume at major Third District banks

increased in October at about the same rate as it has been growing since August,

slightly above the pace earlier in the year.

Bankers say this growth continued

into November as well.

The outlook in the Third District business community is generally positive.

Manufacturers expect to make further gains over the next six months.

Retailers

are optimistic for the Christmas shopping season and believe that 1987 will be a

good year, although they expect the growth of sales to be somewhat less than it

was this year.

Bankers have the least optimistic views.

They believe

economic

growth is likely to slacken next year, bringing a slowdown in lending and

possibly lower bank profits.

MANUFACTURING

Manufacturing activity in the region is posting its fifth consecutive

monthly gain, according to the latest Business Outlook Survey.

Thirty-five

percent of the industrial companies participating in the November survey have

stepped up operations from last month's rate, while only 13 percent have cut

back.

Although this is the most widespread improvement since February, specific

measures of industrial activity reflect only moderate growth this month.

New

orders and order backlogs are edging up, and shipments are rising fractionally.

Employment indicators are mixed; the length of the average workweek is

increasing slightly, but payrolls are unchanged.

Overall, business conditions

III-2

are slightly better in the nondurable goods sector than in the durable goods

sector.

Some upward price movement is noted by this month's survey respondents.

Although two-thirds say their input costs are steady, 22 percent report paying

higher prices for materials and supplies.

Area firms have held the line on the

prices of their own products, however.

Local manufacturers' expectations remain mostly positive.

Looking ahead

six months, 42 percent of the November survey respondents predict further

improvement, 34 percent foresee steady conditions, and only 15 percent

anticipate a slowdown.

On balance, companies polled this month expect increases

in new orders and shipments and a slight buildup in order backlogs.

plan greater capital outlays over the next six months.

They also

However, most firms plan

to hold employment at current levels.

RETAIL

Retailers in the region reported good sales in November, generally.

Department stores have been experiencing greater than expected improvement over

last year, with some marking gains in excess of 10 percent.

Although discount

stores are not achieving gains quite this large, store executives say they are

pleased with the year-over-year increases they are making.

furnishings are selling particularly well.

Appliances and home

Merchants say the new lines of fall

clothing are proving to be very popular also.

While sales continue to be strong, store executives contacted recently say

profits remain under pressure due to higher expenses.

Many retailers are

repositioning themselves for up-scale markets, which involves large up-front

outlays for store remodeling, advertising, and new inventories.

Merchants say the current strength of retail sales indicates a good

Christmas season for them, and they are raising sales projections accordingly.

III-3

Looking into 1987, retailers in the region believe the first half, at least,

should be good.

The consensus forecast for the year as a whole calls for solid

gains but a lower year-over-year increase than expected for 1985-1986.

FINANCE

Total loan volume at large Third District banks in October was up

approximately 12 percent from September and 16 percent above the October 1985

level.

Commercial and industrial lending is described as strong by bank lending

However, narrowing net interest margins and a concern for credit

officers.

quality have led some banks to direct funds to money market investments rather

than loans.

Figures from weekly-reporting banks indicate that consumer loan growth

slackened in October in the Third District, but banks contacted in November said

that credit card and other consumer installment lending was picking up.

Banks

in the region are beginning to offer affinity group credit card programs and

they are expanding promotion of home equity lending; however, they say it is too

soon to tell whether these programs have significantly affected consumer

borrowing.

Bankers expect economic growth to slow during 1987, and they expect both

business and consumer loan demand to ease as a result.

Regardless of economic

developments in the coming year, bankers express concern about the outlook for

bank earnings in 1987.

Some note slower deposit growth currently, and say their

cost of funds will rise if they have to pay more for deposits to support asset

growth.

The impact of the new tax law on banks is also mentioned as a negative

factor for earnings.

IV-1

FOURTH DISTRICT - CLEVELAND

Summary

The

showed

economy

regional

during

improvement

slight

October.

Production and new orders are up in some major cities in the district, and

both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing

Other economic indicators are mixed:

in household and soft goods;

pace;

but

auto

sales

continue

employment

retail sales

to

increase.

have picked up, mostly

housing starts are progressing at a moderate

have

fallen

dramatically.

A

number

of

the

respondents characterize their local economies as weakly healthy.

Retail Sales

Retail sales

unevenly

lines.

picked up slightly from a slow September pace but were

distributed

Major

improved

retailers

more

appliances

than

have

furnishings,

throughout

in

report

many

tapered

off

the

fourth

that

of

sales

their

in the

district

Ohio

past

Inventories are reported

product

their

Pittsburgh

outlets

outlets.

Sales

6 weeks,

and soft goods show strong gains

the country.

across

in

and

while

relative

to be at normal

claim that prospects for the holiday season have

to

of

major

furniture,

home

other areas

levels.

improved some,

of

Retailers

and

they

expect sales increases between 5 to 7 percent over last year.

Domestic

followed

automobile

national

trends

programs expired.

especially

on

quantities

of

new

in

in

which

the

sales

fourth

district

dipped

Inventories at non-GMC dealers

small

manageable, but this

sales

cars.

appears

models.

GM

dealers

to be due

Import

state that inventory levels are rising.

generally

sharply after

incentive

remain on the low side,

report

to their

dealers

have

that

inventories

are

reluctance to order large

report

mixed

sales,

but

all

IV-2

Labor Markets

Ohio's

unemployment

rate

dropped dramatically

seasonally adjusted rate of 8.5 percent

(in

in

September)

October, from

to

7.7

a

percent.

The decline is due in part to an increase in employment of 75,000 jobs.

The service sector

appears

for much

to account

Over the past year, service industry employment

3.0

in Ohio and 2.4 percent

in the U.S.

were particularly strong in Ohio

this

growth.

increased by 7.0 percent,

compared to 4.7 percent for services in the U.S.

by

of

Overall employment grew

Business service industries

over the year, expanding employment by

13.2 percent.

Fourth quarter

suggest

that

these

1986

employment

employment

projections

by Cleveland

employers

trends will continue for the rest of

the

year.

Manufacturing

Manufacturing employment in the fourth district increased by roughly

.3 percent during September, although employment is still below the level

achieved a year

ago.

The

in

recent employment

the

growth

was shared by most

metropolitan

areas

Pittsburgh.

Average weekly hours and earnings are up slightly over last

district,

with

the

notable

exception

of

month.

report

Manufacturers

an

increase

in

new

orders,

prices but constant inventory levels during October.

in

production

models.

is

However,

attributed

a

current

to

the

strike

Part of the increase

beginning

of

at

facility

a

GM

production, and

production of

has

new car

caused

shutdown of operations of a number of assembly plants in the district.

addition, GM recently announced

that

two large assembly plants

the

In

employing

IV-3

6400 workers in the Cincinnati area will be closed by 1990.

Steel

production

in

the

fourth

district

continues

modestly, despite the continued shutdown of USX.

the

first part of November was

Falling

inventory

years.

Capacity

Specialty

steel

levels

have

utilization

production

13

percent

now

reached

is still

is also

above

their

One

increase

Raw steel production in

the

pre-strike

lowest

relatively

up.

to

low

level.

level

at

in

two

58

percent.

customized steel

finishing

company reports that they are fully booked through December and overbooked

through January.

Housing

The slowdown in Midwestern housing markets has tapered off.

Housing

starts and sales are increasing at a healthy but moderate pace.

Many midwestern mortgage borrowers prefer to

mortgage

rates,

apparently

mortgage

rates

cycle.

Nonetheless,

to

be

the

because

trough

the

they

in

perceive

long-term

adjusting

rate

lock in

the

rates

currently low

current

for

mortgage

level

this

is

of

economic

growing

in

popularity.

Banking

Loan demand has risen slightly at district banks.

in all major categories at

strength

in

accounts

for

installment

increases

the

demand

most

loans

in

represented an

third quarter.

of

for

the

rose

commercial

large banks

real

estate

overall

loan

at

and

an

annual

industrial

improvement over the

increased

and

Loans outstanding

in October.

consumer

installment

growth.

Both

rate

20

of

loans

real

loans

estate

percent.

outstanding

lack of business

Continued

and

Marginal

in

October

loan growth in the

V-1

FIFTH DISTRICT - RICHMOND

Overview

Manufacturing remains at about the level reported a few weeks ago, which

was improved from midsummer's pace, and producers are generally optimistic

about prospects for their businesses in the months ahead.

In retailing,

non-auto sales are stronger, and store managers expect a good holiday season.

Three-fourths of producers and retailers forecast inflation to be between two

and four percent in 1987.

Sales of homes are weakening faster than usual at

this time of year, and realtors believe that it will take lower mortgage rates

to increase activity in this sector.

In the financial sector, home

equity-line loans are being offered by most large banks in the District, and

customer response has been strong.

District agricultural bankers expect a new

round of farm failures due to the drought-depressed harvest and low crop

prices.

Consumer Spending

Retail sales, other than new car sales, are generally strong throughout

most of the District, and store managers expect a good Christmas season,

according to our directors.

Their reports are confirmed by our survey of

retailers; 61 percent say that their sales volume in November is running ahead

of October's pace, seasonally adjusted. This month's survey of retailers also

indicates that a higher percentage of respondents are optimistic about the

outlook for their businesses and for general business conditions six months

from now.

Manufacturing

Manufacturing activity in November is little changed from October, judging

from District survey results.

The average rate of capacity utilization is up

one percentage point, but the percentages of firms reporting increases in

shipments or employment are down slightly from the percentages reported last

month.

Reports of increases, however, still outnumber those of decreases.

Compared with the results of last month's survey, those for this month

show a larger percentage of manufacturers optimistic about their business

prospects six months from now.

Forty-five percent of the respondents indicate

that they expect increased sales as a result of improved international trade

conditions, while 15 percent expect reduced sales due to less favorable

international trade conditions.

All but a handful of the remaining

respondents indicate that international trade conditions have no influence on

their businesses.

Housing

Housing sales remain above year-ago levels but are weakening rapidly.

The

downturn appears to be more than seasonal and is attributed to higher home

prices that are keeping some potential buyers out of the market, despite lower

mortgage rates.

Realtors believe that it will take another decline in

mortgage rates to support this industry in the months ahead.

Inflation Expectations

We asked our survey respondents--primarily manufacturers and retailers--to

forecast the general level of inflation for 1987.

The results are summarized

in the table below.

1987 Inflation Forecast

Under 2 %

2% to 3%

3% to 4%

4% to 5%

Over 5%

Percent of Respondents

5

29

48

13

5

Financial

A telephone survey of twenty large District banks was conducted to

determine the activity in and terms of home equity-line loans.

Eighteen of

the banks surveyed are currently offering these loans, and most of these are

very active in advertising their new product.

The remaining two banks expect

to be offering equity-line loans by December 15.

The loans are structured in various ways.

Most are tied to the prime

rate, but some are tied to T-bills or CD's. Some banks offer the option of

balloon payments or a rollover of the principal at maturity periods of up to

15 years, or amortization in monthly installments.

Most of the banks offering the loans describe the response with words such

as "very strong," "dynamite," and "hot," although four banks located in a

relatively depressed part of the District did not regard the response as

unusually good.

Bankers feel that home-equity line loans will become

increasingly popular.

One respondent describes these loans as the most

significant new product since money market accounts.

Agriculture

Revised estimates of crop yields based on nearly complete harvests are in

line with estimates earlier this fall.

As expected, drought damage will mean

severe hardship for some district farmers, especially because of low crop

prices.

Agricultural bankers expect that more farmers will be out of business

by next spring.

VI-1

SIXTH DISTRICT - ATLANTA

Economic activity in the Southeast remains mixed.

Manufacturing employment

has posted little growth, although employment growth in services is accelerating.

Residential and commercial construction is active, but there has been a shift away from

multi-family dwellings and office building.

Lending has remained strong, but consumer

purchases of cars and other durables have slowed. Stabilized oil prices have prevented

further economic decline in the western part of the District.

Crop production and

income will be down substantially, although citrus growers should do well.

Employment and Industry. The District's unemployment rate for September was

steady at 8.1 percent. The services industry kept its lead over all industries in both the

level and growth rate of employment.

Employment in the trade sector grew by 3.8

percent from a year ago in September, a slowing from 4.8 percent in the previous year.

By contrast, construction employment growth has been flat since April.

Manufacturing employment has registered little change since the first of the

year.

Lack of demand for petroleum-related machinery and nuclear power generating

equipment has forced layoffs in some regional states.

A slump in some capital goods

markets-electronics and construction equipment-has hurt fabricated metal producers.

Labor disputes in the steel and transportation equipment industries have idled nearly

4,000 workers in Alabama.

More positively, apparel and textile employment has been increasing since July.

Employment growth for food processors has been steady; falling commodity prices have

stimulated this industry.

Consumer Spending. Sixth District retailers reported moderate sales gains during

October.

Cooler weather spurred apparel sales across the region, but movement of big-

ticket items was sluggish.

Retailers in Tampa, Orlando, Atlanta, and Nashville noted

strong consumer demand induced by fierce price and promotional competition, cutting

profit margins.

Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana retailers, however, report weak

VI-2

demand and less vibrant competition.

Sales in Louisiana are expected to remain very

weak despite the recent firming of oil prices.

With the ending of aggressive marketing and financing programs in October,

District car sales returned to the sluggish pace prevailing earlier this year. Car dealers

in the region also fear that September sales have borrowed heavily from demand late this

year and early in 1987.

Construction. After declining in July and August, single-family building permits

in the Sixth District turned up in September.

Georgia led the nation in year-over-year

sales growth of existing single-family homes.

Florida placed third in the ranking, while

only one state in the nation suffered a worse sales decline than Louisiana.

Nashville

stands out among District cities as a hotbed of activity.

Contacts in Miami report an all-time high of condominium inventories, and poor

demand has brought multi-family construction in New Orleans to a standstill. Although

builders in Atlanta and Nashville note slowing of construction, they believe their markets

will fare better in 1987 than most in the nation.

Commercial

developers

across the Southeast

report slowing activity and

anticipate further deceleration in the coming months. New Orleans remains the region's

weakest market, but contacts there report some expansion of retail construction to meet

the demands of tourists and conventioneers. The south Florida market remains saturated

with office, retail, and industrial space.

developers

Atlanta's glutted office market is leading

to focus on retail and industrial construction.

The relatively short

construction time required for completion of such projects also suggests these markets

will soon be saturated.

Nashville developers are confident that their market will

continue to experience strong but "controlled" growth.

Financial Services.

Total loans at large Sixth District banks grew at the same

rate in September compared to a year ago.

Real estate lending dipped slightly from

August, while business and consumer loan growth maintained its August pace.

VI-3

In response to the effects of tax reform, demand for home equity loans has

surged across the region.

Bankers say these loans have gained popularity because they

retain at least partial interest deductibility under the new tax laws.

Some bankers

expect many homeowners to substitute these loans for card and installment credit.

Tourism.

Travel to the Southeast remains generally strong. Automobile travel

has increased dramatically over last year.

Passenger volume in the region's airports is

also up, due largely to the addition of new flights.

Cruise ship bookings are solid,

according to industry sources. Convention business is up throughout the region. Year-todate tax revenues from the hotel industry are up around 10 percent over last year.

However, in response to a large revenue shortfall, Louisiana has closed 22 out of 32

state-operated visitor facilities and is laying off tourist-related government employees.

Agriculture,

Forestry, and Mining.

Since its low of $12.25 per barrel in

midsummer, the price of Gulf Coast sweet crude petroleum has climbed approximately

15 percent to reach $14 in November.

The price improvement was accompanied by a 20

percent increase in the number of oil rigs operating in the District.

Even so, the 140

active rigs in early November equaled slightly less than half of the number a year ago.

Approximately 2.3 million tons of coal were mined in October, down one million from

October 1985 and roughly 9 percent less than in September this year.

Despite a 5

percent coal price decline, oil and natural gas remain highly competitive.

Agricultural conditions are mixed; poultry and livestock producers are doing

rather well, but income is down for most crops. Recent unfavorable weather and insect

and disease damage have lowered field crop prospects in Louisiana, while recovery from

the drought in Tennessee and Alabama has improved expected yields. Florida orange and

grapefruit crops are projected to be almost 8 percent greater than last year. The lumber

market has been relatively stable in recent weeks; prices have been modestly higher than

during the summer but 10 to 20 percent less than last spring.

VII-1

SEVENTH DISTRICT--CHICAGO

Trends in employment indicate that the pace of activity in this

Summary.

District continues to trail the U.S.

Additional layoffs and plant closings

recently have been announced in several industries.

remains weak.

Auto production schedules have been reduced but remain near

year-earlier levels.

strong.

Capital goods demand generally

Consumer spending and residential investment are relatively

Commercial construction, mainly in the Chicago area but also in other

District centers, continues at a high level.

Some holders of real estate and other

assets are pushing to dispose of these by year-end to receive more favorable tax

treatment.

Prices paid for materials and components increased significantly in

October for steel and various other items.

A large retailer reports prices of

textiles rose after import restrictions were imposed.

Livestock and dairy farmers

have been helped by low feed costs.

Plant Closings and Jobs.

District companies in several industries continue to

announce reductions in employment and shutdowns of manufacturing plants and other

facilities.

Most notable is General Motors' planned closing of 7 manufacturing

plants and part of another plant in the District, currently employing more than

20,000.

Cummins Engine, a leading diesel producer, plans to close two plants in

the District employing 1,500.

We are informed by industry analysts that the GM and

Cummins plant closings are part of broad programs to reduce capacity.

will be consolidated in other plants.

Operations

Other closings recently announced include a

computer parts distribution center in Indiana, a town's largest employer with 1,000

workers; an Illinois hog processing plant, 780 employees; two motor vehicles parts

makers near Chicago; and the Michigan headquarters of a machine tool maker.

VII-2

Reasons cited for these closings include foreign competition, excess capacity, high

labor costs, and mergers.

A Chicago-based paper company is cutting 1,000 jobs

after a merger, and its local headquarters is expected to close.

At least two more

tire manufacturing plants in Illinois and Iowa are likely to be shut down.

Additional jobs cutbacks have been announced in computers, health care products,

banking, machine tools, and heavy-duty transmissions.

On the plus side, additions

to employment totaling nearly 400 are planned by two consumer appliance makers in

Iowa, a response to strong demand.

Also favorable are the expansion plans of

Japanese vehicle producers in several locations.

Capital Goods.

Demand for mechanical capital goods remains weak.

industrial diesel engines is very slow.

The market for

Orders for machine tools have declined.

Oil and gas development equipment continues depressed.

The last U.S. producer of

50-100 horsepower tractors plans to close its Michigan plant, and shift all

production to Europe.

Most smaller tractors have been imported for years.

The

Department of Justice has signaled that it will raise no antitrust objections to

consolidations that would reduce from four to two the number of U.S. producers of

large four-wheel-drive tractors.

Deere, shut down by a strike since August 1, has

offered aggressive incentives to reduce tractor and combine inventories, including

big discounts and zero-interest financing for up to two years.

Orders have slumped

for air conditioning equipment for office buildings, as construction nationwide has

turned down.

Motor Vehicles.

Auto production schedules have been cut from earlier plans but

remain at high levels through the first quarter of 1987.

improved slightly.

Heavy truck orders have

Sales of heavies are projected by one analyst at 125,000 in

1986 and 130,000, possibly up to 140,000, in 1987.

VII-3

Steel.

The work stoppage at USX since August 1 has boosted demand for other

steel producers.

A leading Chicago-area producer is now operating at effective

capacity, in part reflecting a reduction by one-third in the firm's capacity.

Steel prices have increased on new contracts, but most integrated producers are

still losing money.

settled.

Analysts expect prices to fall once the USX labor dispute is

Orders for steel from capital goods producers remain weak.

Oil and gas

industry demand for pipe is up, from a very low level.

Inflation.

Prices paid rose at an "alarming rate" in October, according to the

Purchasing Management Association of Chicago.

broad range of products and materials.

Higher prices were reported for a

Largest increases were for steel sheet and

plates, related to the work stoppage at USX, and also to the Administration's

partially effective program to limit steel imports.

Other categories with higher

prices included corrugated and kraft paper, wood, caustic soda, resins, and

precious metals.

One airline analyst discounts reports of a renewed "fare war."

Nonresidential Construction.

Work on office buildings in downtown Chicago

continues at a vigorous pace, despite high vacancies.

Some projects have been

deferred for lack of sufficient preleasing, but others already underway assure a

high level of activity into 1987.

Manufacturing building is low except for

warehouse facilities in locations well-served by major roads.

Highway work is

slowing rapidly because Congress did not pass enabling legislation prior to

adjournment.

Residential Construction.

Home building is well above last year in many parts

of the Midwest including the Chicago area.

substantially in the Chicago area.

Multifamily starts also are up

Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages are commonly

being offered at rates ranging from 9.5-9.75 percent.

Mobile home shipments by

VII-4

Indiana builders, a major center of this industry, are higher this year, in

contrast with a declining national trend.

Consumer Spending.

A large general merchandise chain projects a sizable rise

in general merchandise sales in 1986, with prices up only slightly.

in dollar sales and larger price increases are expected in 1987.

A smaller rise

Restraints on

textile and apparel imports are blamed for a recent jump in prices in these lines,

which had been stable.

with prices stable.

Airline traffic was up strongly in September and October,

A consultant expects consolidations and resulting cost cuts to

improve profitability in 1987.

Second mortgages are being advertised extensively

by banks, S&LS, and other lenders.

mortgages.

Some advertisers are holders of first

Second mortgages are being advertised as a way of tapping accumulated

home equity and avoiding loss of interest deductibility under the new tax law.

Agriculture.

Bumper corn and soybean harvest estimates were raised recently

for Iowa and Wisconsin, contrary to many analysts' projections following heavy

September-October rains.

Production estimates were cut slightly for Indiana.

Prices remain low but have edged higher in recent weeks.

A feared storage crunch

was lessened by a stretched-out harvest season, caused by heavy rains, and

attractive options offered to farmers which encouraged them to redeem PIK

certificates and sell their grain rather than store it under the government's

support program.

Returns to livestock producers are quite favorable because of low

feed costs and higher prices for cattle and hogs.

benefitting from lower feed costs.

Dairy farmers also are

Milk prices have recovered to year ago levels

as cuts in dairy cow numbers, from the whole-herd buy-out program, and strong gains

in commercial demand for milk have trimmed the milk surplus.

VIII-1

EIGHTH DISTRICT - ST. LOUIS

Summary

The District's expansion of employment and construction exceeded

the nation's in recent months, while the pace of retail sales trailed the

national trend.

Strong real estate and consumer lending characterize the

local banking market.

Harvests are nearly complete except in Missouri

where heavy rains have delayed the fall harvest.

Employment

District nonfarm employment increased at a 4.6 percent rate in

the third quarter compared with 1.7 percent for the nation.

Nonfarm

employment growth in the region was led by the construction sector, with

third quarter employment 15.8 percent above last year's third quarter

level.

Despite a 1.4 percent rate of decline in manufacturing jobs, the

food processing sector continues to expand.

Employment in the District

electrical equipment sector picked up in the third quarter after declines

in the first half.

The weaker dollar reportedly has led to increased

foreign demand for the region's wood pulp and paperboard products.

Depressed coal prices have contributed to the contraction of mining

activity in Western Kentucky this year.

A strike by workers in an auto

electronics plant in Indiana caused the layoff of 5,000 auto workers in

St. Louis and 900 workers in Bowling Green, Kentucky beginning

November 18.

Construction

Third quarter construction activity expanded faster in the

District than in the nation.

The value of residential construction

VIII-2

contracts awarded in the District grew at a 10.9 percent rate compared

with a 5.0 percent rate of decline nationally.

Third quarter residential

contracts in the District were 14.0 percent above the level of the same

period in 1985, exceeding the nation's 5.7 percent growth.

In contrast

to District trends, Louisville reported a sharp increase in multi-family

building in comparison with last year.

The value of nonresidential

construction contracts expanded at a 15.4 percent rate in the third

quarter, compared with the nation's 0.5 percent pace.

Consumer Spending

District retail sales grew at a 2.2 percent rate in the three

months through August, with sharp losses in Missouri dampening regional

growth.

In comparison, national sales grew at a 6.8 percent pace during

the period.

Contacts reported vigorous spending on new cars in

September, but few sales in October.

Banking

For the three months ending October, total loans at large

District banks grew at a 12.8 percent annual rate, more than twice the

6.2 percent rate for the same period last year.

Real estate loan growth

was the dominant factor, expanding at a 24.1 percent rate compared with

4.0 percent for the same August-October period in 1985.

Commercial

lending, which had declined during the third quarter, picked up slightly

in October.

Consumer lending continues strong, expanding at a 19.9

percent annual rate, a rate comparable with the same period last year.

A recent survey of District bankers indicates a continued

willingness to make consumer installment loans as they have not

VIII-3

experienced rising delinquencies.

Bankers are actively promoting home

equity lines of credit in response to the phasing-out of the tax

deductibility of consumer interest costs.

One large bank has eliminated

all points and closing costs for home equity loans until January 31, 1987.

During the last five weeks, numerous banks and savings and loans

have lowered their passbook rate to a range of 4.8 to 5.0 percent.

One

large bank, however, in an attempt to gain market share, increased its

rate to 6.0 percent for accounts maintaining a minimum balance of $200.00.

Agriculture

Contacts suggest that despite low crop prices, high government

payments have allowed many local farmers to improve their financial

positions.

They indicate that the failure rate of farmers is unchanged

or slightly lower than last year because the most financially stressed

farmers have already left farming.

The slide in land prices is expected

to slow or stop but no significant appreciation is anticipated.

Harvests are nearly complete or are ahead of schedule in all

District states except Missouri where heavy October rains delayed corn

and soybean harvests.

Flooding destroyed approximately 4 percent of

Missouri's soybean crop.

Despite the adverse weather, Missouri farmers

enjoyed a record corn yield and a strong soybean yield.

IX - 1

NINTH DISTRICT--MINNEAPOLIS

Moderate growth appears to have continued this fall in the Ninth

District.

Labor market conditions have held firm, as have most types of con-

sumer spending.

Aggregate nonresidential construction has held up, as has the

district's important wood products sector.

brightened

by the

attendant

government

Ninth District labor markets have not weakened recently.

The Minne-

payments.

likelihood

of big crops

The agricultural outlook has been

and

their

But farm bankruptcies have not abated.

Employment

apolis-St. Paul help-wanted advertising index rose 2.7 percent in September.

District unemployment rates did not rise significantly in September.

Minne-

sota's unemployment rate fell a bit, to 4.2 percent, while its Twin City area

rate rose a bit, to just 3.7 percent.

At the same time, additional hiring in

durable goods manufacturing helped bring South Dakota's unemployment rate down

to 3.6 percent.

Total employment declined somewhat in both Montana and North

Dakota, but the unemployment rate rose only slightly in the former and fell in

the latter.

Still, Twin City manufacturing employment continues to be affected

by the problems of its large multinational manufacturers.

One of those re-

cently announced that 1,000 of its 19,000 area employees will be laid off by

January.

Consumer Spending

Retail spending on general merchandise has held up well recently,

reflecting the national trend.

One large chain reports its October sales up

12.4 percent from a year ago and its November sales also good.

Inventories

IX -2

are in good shape.

A banker reports that another chain operating throughout

South Dakota has had good October and November sales too.

But Bank directors

continue to report the problems of small town, "Main Street" retailers in farm

areas.

Motor vehicle

sales

have

also

been consistent with the national

trend; they have fallen off recently after big gains earlier this fall.

The

district office of one domestic manufacturer notes that this October its car

sales dropped 4.2 percent below last October's level.

Another manufacturer

reports a similar pattern, but notes that its inventories are still low.

Bank directors and members of the Ninth District Advisory Council on

Small Business, Agriculture, and Labor report healthy levels of tourist spending in most district tourist areas.

They say summer spending was generally

higher than last year, as expected, and most are expecting winter business to

be brisk.

Housing

activity has

slowed

from its

rapid

pace

earlier

in

the

year.

Minnesota's Twin City area home sales were lower this

last.

Over

there.

A banker reports that bad weather slowed housing activity in South

the

Dakota as well.

same

period,

multifamily housing starts

October than

were also

lower

But a Bank director notes that the demand for seasonal dwell-

ings in Minnesota resort areas has been good.

Construction

In contrast to housing, the steady pace of nonresidential building

has continued.

Reflecting higher demand for space, the vacancy rates for both

commercial office and industrial buildings in the Minneapolis-St.Paul metropolitan area fell between June and September.

In fact, nonresidential build-

ing contracts in Minnesota were 64 percent higher this September than last.

A

IX -3

Bank director notes an unusually large number of big construction projects in

and around

ports

Duluth, Minnesota.

And while a labor leader in North Dakota re-

that construction activity in North Dakota has

fallen overall, recent

activity has included some public works and military-related construction.

Resources

Resource-related

performance.

well.

industries

have continued to show a wide

The large and growing wood products sector continues to do quite

A Bank director reports that paper mills

the district are running at full capacity.

rise more.

range of

He notes that

competition from new plants

plants in this district.

in the northeastern part of

Pulp prices are quite firm and may

waferboard plants

are also

may create problems

for

running

full and

existing wood

that

products

An open pit copper mine employing 300 is now operat-

ing in Montana, and the important White Pine copper mine in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan is now doing a little better than breaking even.

But both

iron and oil extraction are still at low levels, with an uncertain future.

Agriculture

Big

crops

tural conditions.

sota.

and

government

payments

are

brightening overall

A record or near-record corn crop is

agricul-

being reaped in

Minne-

A Bank director expects government payments on the excellent wheat crop

in Montana to help the hard-pressed wheat farmers there.

One respondent cites

the potential economic stimulus inherent in the $670 million government payments to North Dakota.

are

going

to use

depleted savings.

a

However, a South Dakota banker believes that farmers

lot of

And

income just

several

repaying

respondents

still rising in parts of the district.

note

debts and

that

increasing

their

farm bankruptcies

are

TENTH DISTRICT - KANSAS CITY

Overview.

Only modest improvement is apparent in Tenth District

economic activity.

Retail sales continue to improve, although district auto

sales shared in the national decline.

Inventory levels generally are viewed

as satisfactory, and prices are expected to remain relatively stable.

energy and agriculture sectors remain weak.

activity is expected.

The

Some weakening in housing

Demand for mortgage funds has moderated and mortgage

rates are expected to remain steady.

Total loan demand at commercial banks

was generally constant or down over the past month.

Retail sales.

Tenth District retailers report that sales are moderately

stronger than a year ago and generally have been improving over the last three

months.

Recently, retail sales of furniture, electronics, and women's apparel

have been particularly strong.

Prices have changed little during the last

three months and are expected to remain relatively stable.

Most retailers are

satisfied with their current inventory levels, although some would prefer to

trim their inventories modestly.

Most retailers expect sales during the

holiday season to be as good as or better than last year.

Automobile sales.

Tenth District automobile dealers experienced poor

sales in October following the end of low-interest factory incentives.

Inventories of 1986 models have been depleted, but dealers are building their

stocks of 1987 models cautiously because they are not optimistic about the

short-run sales outlook.

Buyers have been conditioned to expect incentive

programs, and many dealers expect that sluggish sales will soon force the

automobile manufacturers into a new round of incentives.

Purchasing agents.

Purchasing agents in the Tenth District continue to

report slightly higher input prices, due partly to the depreciation of the

dollar and the steel strike.

Most purchasing agents expect relatively stable

X-2

Materials are readily available, and no

prices over the next three months.

problems with availability or lead times are expected.

generally are regarded as satisfactory.

Inventory levels

Some firms, however, have been

trimming inventories and plan to continue this policy for the rest of the

year.

Housing activity and finance.

Most homebuilders report that single-

family housing starts have increased from last year's levels, but multifamily

starts have varied widely by locality.

Homebuilders expect normal seasonal

declines in single-family starts during the winter.

Multifamily construction,

however, is expected to be substantially weaker because of overbuilding in

many areas.

New home sales are generally above year-ago levels.

Builders

report no problems with either the availability or delivery of housing

materials.

Materials prices have been steady, although some builders expect

rising lumber prices.

Many Tenth District savings institutions have accepted limited savings

inflows in the face of intense rate competition and flat loan demand.

expect this situation to continue into 1987.

moderated.

Most

Demand for mortgage funds has

Mortgage interest rates have stabilized and are expected to remain

steady or trend slightly downward.

Energy.

The district's weakened energy industry continues to suffer

from the uncertainty surrounding international crude oil markets.

have firmed somewhat, but remain well below year-ago levels.

Oil prices

As a result,

exploration and development activity in the district has rebounded slightly

but remains generally depressed.

The average weekly number of operating

drilling rigs in the Tenth District was up again to 223 in October from 215 in

September, but remains far below the 550 rigs working in January.

X-3

Agriculture.

Wet fall weather conditions have delayed harvest

operations in many regions of the Tenth District.

The corn, soybean, and milo

harvest is 85 to 100 percent complete in some areas, but elsewhere 50 to 65

percent of the crop is still in the field.

Yields have been high across the

district, with record yields expected in many areas.

Many regions are

experiencing tight storage conditions, but storage shortages are expected to

ease as more of last year's stocks are marketed.

Most areas report good to

excellent winter wheat and wheat pasture conditions.

Harvest delays have meant production loan paydown delays, but many

lenders still expect paydowns to improve over last year.

Lenders also suggest

no loosening in credit conditions for the coming production year, with credit

refusal rates expected to be about the same as last year.

Effects of the new

farm bankruptcy legislation may be reflected in the 1987 farm credit

situation.

Lenders feel that the new Chapter 12 provisions weaken their

position with troubled loans and marginal borrowers.

Lenders expect the added

creditor risk to lead to tougher credit review standards and more cautious

lending.

Banking.

Total loan demand was generally constant or down, and total

deposit activity was mixed at Tenth District banks during the past month.

In

all categories of loan demand, more bankers reported increased weakness than

reported increased strength.

Consumer, real estate, and agricultural loans

were areas of particular weakness.

While most banks have lowered rates on

consumer loans, further interest rate declines are generally not expected.

Demand deposits, large CDs, and small time deposits tended to remain constant

or decline, while NOWs, Super-NOWs, and passbook savings accounts tended to

remain constant or increase.

remained unchanged.

MMDAs, IRAs, and Keough accounts, on balance,

Most banks are considering lowering their passbook

savings rate below 5 1/2 percent, if they have not already done so.

XI-1

ELEVENTH DISTRICT--DALLAS

The Eleventh District economy is flat.

slight evidence of strengthening.

months.

Manufacturing is showing

Drilling has been stable for several

Construction is substantially below a year earlier, but it appears

to be leveling off.

Auto sales have weakened lately, chiefly owing to the

end of concessionary financing.

year's level.

Retail sales are slipping compared to last

The balance sheets of the District financial institutions

reflect the weakness of the District economy.

Lower feed prices and higher

meat prices have increased the profitability of.District ranchers.

District manufacturers continue to report that orders have

stabilized at low levels.

Some respondents note slight increases stemming

from strengthening in the national economy.

For makers of primary metals,

fabricated metals, and nonelectrical machinery, sales increases outside the

District have helped to compensate for flat to declining sales in the

region.

Orders of electrical machinery are stable.

Among apparel

manufacturers, sales are unchanged overall and product prices are firm.

Demand for stone, clay, and glass products, and for lumber and wood

products, is weak because of reduced orders from the construction sector.

Chemical and paper products sales are increasing slightly.

Transportation

equipment manufacturers say the pace of their orders is little changed.

Refinery production has ebbed slightly as inventories of many products have

been built up to high levels.

A significant number of manufacturers link

the falling value of the dollar to increases in prices of their inputs and

to small upturns in their orders.

XI-2

Drilling activity has varied little during the period from June

through October.

The number of well permits issued in the District states

has been fairly steady since June.

Respondents expect some upward movement

in oil prices, but they believe that the increases will not lead to a

significant upturn in drilling activity.

Construction continues to show signs of stability, but the

potential for further downturns is evident.

In Texas, the total value of

construction contracts for the third quarter was slightly above the second

quarter's total, but it was down 25 percent from a year earlier.

As with

total construction, nonresidential contracts have been steady in recent

months at roughly 30 percent below last year's level.

The downturn has

been concentrated in office and retail construction, leaving other

categories of nonresidential building only slightly lower than a year

earlier.

The market for office space is still weakening.

In Houston,

bankruptcies and consolidations have led to reductions in the amount of

office space that is occupied.

dropped by half since last year.

slightly.

The office absorption rate in Dallas has

Residential construction is falling

The value of residential contracts was slightly less in the

third quarter than in the second quarter.

Permits continue to drop, led by

precipitous declines in multifamily building.

Nonbuilding construction is

steady.

Dealers attribute a recent sharp drop in automobile sales to the

end of concessionary financing programs.

As a result of sluggishness in

the District economy, sales have also fallen significantly from a year

earlier.

Inventories are not excessive, as dealers have held their orders

to modest levels.

Respondents report that the full advantage of the

XI-3

appreciating yen has been reduced by increases in the price of domestic

models and by increased imports of non-Japanese autos.

Retail sales continue to falter.

The largest declines have been

in the energy-intensive regions of the District.

electronics have risen significantly.

Prices of imported

Apparel prices remain stable, but

respondents expect increases as a result of new import restrictions.

Retailers are keeping their inventories quite low in anticipation of

continued economic sluggishness.

Total assets at large District banks are still declining,

principally as a result of reductions in business loans.

lending continues to expand, but at a decreasing rate.

slight growth on a year-over-year basis.

increased steadily throughout the year.

Real estate

Consumer loans show

Holdings of securities have

Total deposits at large District

banks have fallen dramatically since the first quarter, led by reductions

in large time deposits.

Borrowings have increased, but not enough to

completely offset the reductions in time deposits.

A decline in deposits

at commercial banks has been more than offset by growth at thrifts, so that

deposits at all financial institutions are up from a year earlier.

The

pace of expansion has slowed, however.

In District agriculture, crop prices are markedly down from a year

earlier while livestock prices are up.

Since last July, cattle prices have

increased 5 percent while feed prices have fallen 25 percent.

profit margins for ranchers have widened.

As a result,

An early freeze has reduced the

value of District cotton production, through quantity and quality losses,

by an estimated $100 million.

XII-1

TWELFTH DISTRICT -- SAN FRANCISCO

Overall

improvement

in

the

Twelfth

District

economy

appears

to

be

continuing.

The trade and service sectors continue to stimulate growth in

regions not

hard hit

by other economic

problems.

suggests that exports of products manufactured

improve.

Moreover,

markets

for

some

Available information

in the West are likely

western

agricultural

to

products,

including potatoes, pistachios, and grapes, have improved in recent months.

Forest

products

industries

are

prospering

while

gold

and

appear likely to recover during the next several months.

family

remains

activity has

residential

building

relatively

healthy.

Apartment

slackened

and

in

copper

Although single

recent

nonresidential

activity, in contrast, continues to weaken in many areas.

mining

months

it

construction

Surveyed bankers

agree that asset quality problems are likely to continue through next year,

particularly in sectors that have experienced problems already.

Consumer Spending

The trade and service

the

Twelfth

Washington

sectors continue to flourish in most parts

Retail

District.

sales

and California, and has

growth

been

has

been

satisfactory

very

in Oregon

However, in areas with struggling economies sales are weak.

strong

of

in

as well.

In Idaho, for

example, retail sales have shown virtually no increase during the past 24

months.

Alaska retail sales also have been slow.

In California's central

valley, retail sales reportedly have been flat, which actually represents

an improvement compared to recent declines.

Manufacturing

Several

respondents

should improve soon.

argued

Exports of

that

exports

of

some electronic

manufactured

products

products have risen

in

XII-2

recent

have

months due

to the reduced value of the dollar.

shown strong improvement,

largely due to global

Aircraft exports

increases

in demand

for commercial aircraft.

Capital goods producers indicate that machinery orders from Europe are

picking

up,

due

to

declining

declining U.S. dollar.

U.S.

production

costs

as

well

In addition, one respondent reports

as

to

the

that Japanese

distributors have begun contacting U.S. companies about purchasing consumer

products,

products

partly because

and

partly

Japan now

because

of

is encouraging

the

changing

the

purchase

dollar-yen

of

U.S.

relationship.

Taiwan also is beginning to promote imports from the U.S. in an attempt to

deter U.S. protectionist measures.

Recent

trade

developments

are

products industry sources report

only

slightly increased

mills.

the

not

all

positive,

that the decline

prices

of

however.

Forest

of the U.S. dollar has

imported machinery used

in lumber

This machinery, most of which is produced in northern Europe and

Scandinavia,

still

enjoys

price

and quality

advantages

relative

to

U.S.

farmers,

some

made machinery.

Agriculture and Resource Related Industries

Although

recent

problems

improvements

continue

for many

have been noted.

Twelfth

District

In Idaho, potato prices have risen

significantly, providing farmers a chance to return to profitability.

California,

In

the pistachio crop harvest was the largest ever recorded, and

the bumper crop should not depress pistachio prices much because pistachios

bear only in alternate years.

harvested

year's.

this

year

than

last

Although 12 percent fewer wine grapes were

year,

grape

prices

are

higher

than

last

XII-3

Most

economic

indicators

in

the

forest

products

industries

suggest

that, despite the national slowdown in residential construction, prosperity

has returned at least for the moment.

In Oregon, the number of millworking

jobs in September set a new record for that month.

products,

including lumber, pulp, and

dramatically.

because

imminent

paper have

Exports of many forest

increased,

although not

Competition from Canada has been less fierce lately, partly

Canadian

lumber

settlement,

and

workers

are

on

partly because

strike

with

little

a preliminary ruling

hope

of

that

an

would

impose a 15 percent tariff on softwood lumber imports from Canada requires

that, while waiting for a final decision, Canadian exporters

post a bond

with customs officials equal to the 15 percent duty.

The lingering problems of the mining industry in Utah appear to have

bottomed out, and stability or perhaps even slight improvement is expected

during the coming months.

The outlook for the copper industry currently is

much brighter than it has been for several years, and some observers expect

copper to be a source of strength during the coming year.

The prospects

for gold mining

gold deposits

in Nevada also have

improved.

Additional

have been discovered, but at this point it is unclear whether they can be

mined profitably.

Construction and Real Estate

In

most

areas

nonresidential

of

the

construction

is

District,

slowing.

the

Single

pace

of

family

remains relatively strong despite recent slackening.

multifamily

home

and

construction

Although activity has

been heavy in both new and used home markets, housing prices in most areas

reportedly are flat or down.

Financial Sector

Surveyed bankers

indicate that

significant loan quality problems are

XII-4

likely to continue in such sectors as agriculture, energy, consumer credit,

and commercial real

emerge

estate.

In addition, a few bankers

in health care portfolios.

Strength

at least partially offset these problems.

in mortgage

expect problems to

portfolios

should