beige book · February 10, 1987

Beige Book

SUMMARY OF COMMENTARY ON CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS

JANUARY 1987

TABLE OF CONTENTS

SUMMARY

. . . . . . . . . . .

First District - Boston .

. .

I-'

Second District - New York . .

111-1

Third District - Philadelphia.

Fourth District - Cleveland.

IV-1

Fifth District - Richmond. .

V-i

Sixth District - Atlanta . . .

VI-'

Seventh District - Chicago . .

VII-'

Eighth District - St. Louis.

VIII-l

Ninth District - Minneapolis

IX-i

X-1

Tenth District - Kansas City

Eleventh District - Dallas . .

Twelfth District - San Francisco .

XI-l

XII-1

SUMMARY*

The pace of economic activity appears to have quickened slightly at

year-end, according to this month's commentaries on regional economic

conditions.

Retailers in most Districts enjoyed moderate year-over-year

sales increases, in line with expectations.

Auto sales were very strong in

December, although the loss of the sales tax deduction in 1987 is widely

regarded as the reason for this strength.

increased in several Districts.

Manufacturing employment

The improvement was spotty, however, with

an industry expanding in one District but not in another.

Residential

construction activity remains strong in some Districts, but has slowed in

others.

The rate of nonresidential construction also varies considerably

from one part of the country to another.

increasing from very depressed levels.

improving.

Oil and gas drilling is gradually

The agricultural situation is

While agricultural prices remain weak, higher production levels

and lower prices for petroleum-based inputs are positive factors.

Banks in

most Districts experienced very strong commercial and real estate loan

demand in December.

Some of this strength is attributed to efforts to

complete transactions before the new tax laws are in effect.

Consumer Spending

Christmas sales in most Districts were described as moderately

ahead of year-ago levels and consistent with retailers' expectations.

The

most notable exceptions were the Boston and New York Districts, where

retail respondents reported strong sales increases ranging from 5 to 25

percent over year-ago levels, and the Dallas District, where sales were

*Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

said to be below year-ago levels although still consistent with

expectations.

Sales were generally slow in the early part of December but

strengthened as Christmas drew closer.

January sales were reported as

healthy in the Philadelphia District and weak in Richmond.

Retail inventories at the end of the Christmas season were said to

be at comfortable levels and, in two or three Districts, lower relative to

sales than in past years.

For the most part, changes in exchange rates

have not had much effect on retail prices, although merchants in several

Districts expect rising import prices to show up more in 1987.

Retailers

are generally optimistic about future sales, but there is some concern that

the first quarter will be soft as consumers start paying for the cars and

other large items purchased late in 1986.

Reports of motor vehicle sales were all the same.

Sales were very

strong in December; dealers are generally satisfied with current inventory

levels; sales are expected to be slow for at least the first several months

of 1987.

Most reports attribute the strength in December and the weakness

projected for early 1987 to consumers' shifting purchases from 1987 to 1986

in order to take advantage of the deductibility of the sales tax.

In this

regard, San Francisco notes that in Oregon, where there is no sales tax,

sales did not pick up appreciably.

Construction and Real Estate

Reports of residential construction were mixed across the

Districts.

Activity has been particularly strong in the New York, Chicago

and St. Louis Districts.

strength in New York.

Mild weather was said to have contributed to the

Where home building has slowed, overbuilding,

overpricing and a shortage of suitable land were cited as the primary

causes.

In the San Francisco District, multifamily construction has slowed

but single-family building is doing well; the new tax laws are thought to

have made multifamily units less attractive for investment purposes,

whereas they are expected to have little effect on the single-family unit.

Home sales are strong, according to most reports, and are expected to

remain so into 1987.

Nonresidential construction levels vary from busy in Minneapolis

and Chicago to slow in San Francisco.

About half the Districts mentioned

that some office markets face an oversupply of space; absorption rates are

said to be strong in many areas, however.

Similarly, in areas with newly

constructed retail space, occupancy rates are improving.

Construction for

retail buildings has continued at a healthy rate in Atlanta, in part

because of net in-migration.

Substantial growth in nonresidential

construction was reported in parts of the Chicago and St. Louis Districts.

Manufacturing

Manufacturing activity appears to have picked up slightly in the

last months of 1986.

Several Districts reported modest increases in

employment, and in the Dallas District, where manufacturing activity had

been declining, "Manufacturers are noting more positive signs than at any

time in the last two years."

The industries cited as responsible for this

improvement varied from District to District:

in the Dallas District

orders are bottoming out for energy-related durable goods; San Francisco

reported that commercial aerospace is gaining strength; employment

increases occurred in glass and general industrial machinery in the

Cleveland District, in textiles and electrical equipment in St. Louis and

in printing and publishing and textiles in Atlanta.

mentioned increasing defense activity.

appears to have been no improvement.

Several Districts

For many industries, however, there

San Francisco noted that the

electronics and semiconductor industries continue to suffer from fierce

competition and low prices.

Boston and Chicago both reported that reduced

capital spending by domestic auto manufacturers is hurting the machinery

and metalworking industries.

Manufacturers in different Districts vary considerably in their

views of the future.

Those in the Philadelphia and Richmond Districts

think that business will improve over the next six months, those in Boston

foresee little change, and those in Cleveland expect the first quarter of

1987 to be very poor and are uncertain whether the national expansion will

continue.

Mining

The number of oil and gas drilling rigs in operation increased in

December in the Kansas City and Dallas Districts, but remains far below the

number a year ago.

spring.

Drilling in Atlanta was at its highest level since last

Coal production increased over the year in the Richmond District

but decreased in Atlanta.

Gold mining in the Minneapolis District is

reported to be doing fairly well and the San Francisco District's copper

industry is hiring after an extended period of layoffs.

Agriculture

The situation in agriculture shows some signs of improvement.

Agricultural prices remain generally weak, but low grain prices have helped

livestock producers, especially those raising poultry.

Lower prices for

petroleum-based inputs such as fuel and fertilizer are also a positive

factor.

Prices rose slightly in December for wheat, corn and soybeans in

the Minneapolis District and farm crops in Texas, but most prices remain

below year-earlier levels.

Farm incomes are not as weak as farm prices in all cases, since

production levels are higher.

Good weather contributed to a bountiful

vegetable and citrus harvest in Florida, more calves were held over the

winter in the Kansas City District, and crop production in the Richmond

District should be higher than this year's drought-reduced levels.

On the

down side, a significant decline in Texas cotton production projected for

1986 means lower incomes in already distressed areas of the state.

Banking

In most Districts, commercial and real estate lending increased

strongly in December, although in the Dallas District business loans were

far below year-ago levels.

Banks in the New York, Philadelphia and San

Francisco Districts attributed some of December's strength to tax changes

and the desire to complete transactions before year-end.

In the

Philadelphia and Atlanta Districts consumer loan growth has slowed and in

San Francisco construction loans dropped off sharply in the last months of

the year.

Home equity lending is increasing, according to several reports.

In the St. Louis District agricultural lending by banks continues

to decline as a result of reductions in the costs of inputs and land, on

the one hand, and more rigorous scrutiny by lenders, on the other.

In the

Kansas City District loan paydowns are reported to have improved over last

year.

FIRST DISTRICT-BOSTON

Retailers in the First District enjoyed strong year-over-year

holiday sales.

Manufacturing activity, on the other hand, remains flat.

Export sales have increased, but the improvement is small.

Orders of

capital equipment from the auto industry have fallen sharply.

Although

some retailers report that vendor prices are rising faster than a year ago,

others see no acceleration.

stable.

The prices of manufacturing inputs are

Commercial construction activity is said to be down from the level

of the past two years, but still high by the standards of earlier years.

Retail

Christmas selling results in the First District were mixed; but

among those contacted, the weakest year-over-year sales increase still

exceeded 5 percent on a comparable stores basis.

increases ranging as high as 25 percent.

Some retailers enjoyed

Several respondents noted that

the season started slowly but became almost frenzied in the last week or

so; margins suffered at stores that responded to the early weakness with

price reductions.

sell well.

Electronics, VCRs, TVs, and microwave ovens continued to

Selected apparel categories picked up.

Pre-holiday toy sales

showed significant growth.

Inventories are said to be in good shape.

A number of stores have

made significant efforts in the last year to reduce inventory levels.

Several of those contacted reported that post-holiday inventories are no

greater than last year even though they are supporting significantly higher

sales.

Some merchants report domestic and foreign vendor prices rising

somewhat faster than a year earlier, others note very little change.

One

of those facing rising import prices plans to shift from Japanese suppliers

to Korean.

Another said that even after sizable price increases six months

ago (which have since leveled off), foreign hardgoods suppliers offer

better quality relative to price than domestic competitors.

One firm

expects its import prices to increase more in 1987 than in 1986; this firm

orders up to a year in advance and by buying foreign currency when the

orders are placed, it locks in exchange rates.

Retailers continue to report difficulties in finding high-quality

employees in the tight New England labor market, even as they reduce staff

after the holiday season.

This situation gives them confidence that the

region's consumer sector will remain robust in 1987.

Manufacturing

Most manufacturing respondents in the First District report that

business remains flat.

However, in the metalworking and machinery

industries there has been a substantial falling-off in orders from auto

makers.

Various manufacturers of capital goods report that the chemical

industry is increasing orders, defense demand remains strong, but orders

from the oil and gas industry remain depressed.

Several contacts in the

computer industry have experienced moderate increases in demand.

Exports have picked up, but the improvement is modest.

accounts for most of the gains.

Europe

In addition, several manufacturers of

large-scale capital goods are experiencing increased success competing

against Japanese and German suppliers in third country markets,

particularly in the Far East.

Most manufacturing respondents do not see

any lessening in import competition, but a representative of the textile

industry reports that the prices of European products have increased

I-3

and U.S. mills have regained a little market share.

None of the firms

contacted is shifting production to the United States to take advantage of

the lower dollar.

On the contrary, several are expanding overseas

operations, in some cases with the intention of exporting to the United

States.

Manufacturers in the First District do not expect 1987 to be much

different from 1986.

Seeing little growth potential, they are focusing

attention on cost containment.

Many have reduced employment levels in the

past year; several are continuing to do so.

being reorganized and reduced.

Administrative staffs are

Manufacturers are also continuing to cut

inventories through the use of more computerized controls and just-in-time

procedures.

Respondents are reasonably satisfied with their progress in

reducing inventory levels, but they are trying to bring them lower still.

With respect to capital spending, most contacts plan to spend about the

same in 1987 as in 1986.

Two themes were heard, often from the same

individuals: 1) approval standards are very stringent and 2) if the project

will yield substantial productivity gains, it will be approved.

Prices of inputs, whether imported or domestic, are not rising to

any significant degree.

Europe.

One exception is the price of raw wool from

Manufacturers also report a continued inability to raise their own

prices.

Commercial Real Estate and Construction

The commercial real-estate market is healthy for the most part,

according to local agents.

Boston, despite the addition of a significant

amount of new commercial space, still enjoys one of the highest occupancy

rates of any city in the country.

Agents in most areas in the region are

reporting a strong market for office space.

Construction in this sector

continues but at a level somewhat below that of the past two years.

Where over-building has been reported, absorption rates are said to be

catching up with vacancy rates.

prime downtown locations.

Retail space is tight in many suburban and

Other than the current expansion of some rural

shopping malls, little retail construction is underway.

for industrial real estate.

Reports were mixed

While some agents report high vacancy rates,

others suggest an even match between supply and demand.

Industrial space in

some locations has priced itself out of high occupancy by charging retail

rents for industrial footage.

Other industrial sites are being converted to

research and development and other uses that generate higher revenues.

II-1

SECOND DISTRICT - NEW YORK

Conditions in most sectors of the Second District economy were

stable to improved in recent weeks.

Consumer spending during the holiday

season was at or above expectations and inventories were generally low

going into the new year.

Residential construction remained strong, in part

because of mild weather.

An increased number of firms however, reported a

worsening of business conditions, although the majority continues to

experience stability or improvement.

On the financial side, lending

activity increased substantially during late 1986 at mid-sized banks in the

District.

Consumer Spending

Consumer spending at Second District stores ranged from 6 to 23

percent above year-earlier levels during the 1986 Christmas season, and

several retailers reported sales above plan.

After a strong

post-Thanksgiving period, sales activity slowed in early December as buyers

apparently waited for the pre-Christmas markdowns which had been the

pattern in some recent years.

Most retailers had entered this holiday

season with slim inventories, however, and refrained from offering

additional promotionals.

As the holiday drew nearer, a decided upturn in

sales occurred and most retailers ended the season with overall sales at or

above plan.

One department store chain with somewhat disappointing sales

attributed this to a special promotional in November which detracted from

its December business.

II-2

Among items in strong demand were apparel, jewelry and electric

appliances.

In addition, a new laser toy proved so popular that stores

could not keep it in stock.

As the new year began, most stores reported

inventories at quite comfortable levels.

Business Activity

The Second District's economic expansion slowed somewhat in recent

weeks.

Most purchasing managers in Buffalo and Rochester continue to

report stable to improved new orders and production.

However, the

percentage of firms with declining business conditions has been rising, and

in November such firms surpassed the number with improved situations for

the first time in several months.

Employment remains at a record level in the District as declines in

manufacturing have continued being offset by gains in other sectors.

Moreover the December unemployment rates of 4.3% and 6.0% in New Jersey and

New York, respectively, were below the national average.

However, a

development which could have an adverse impact on District employment is

A.T.& T's recently announced plans for a 27,400 reduction in its workforce

by the end of 1987.

While no information was given as to where the

cutbacks would occur, some 67,000 of the company's employees are in the

New York-New Jersey area.

Construction and Real Estate

Residential construction continues to be strong in the Second

District.

Aided by the lack of frost and unusually warm weather, builders

have remained quite active working on contracts from the fall.

A scarcity

of suitable land is a growing problem in some areas and rising home prices

II-3

are widespread.

Developers are increasingly resorting to subdivisions in

order to keep house prices at affordable levels.

Despite these problems,

builders are generally optimistic that 1987's activity will come close to

matching the busy pace of 1986.

Office market conditions were relatively stable in recent weeks

with few major new projects undertaken.

Additional leasing activity

continues to help in areas of oversupply.

Moreover, some observers

anticipate an actual tightening of the office market on Long Island because

of the unabated demand and limited construction activity there.

Manhattan, opinions are mixed concerning the likely impact of the recent

collapse of rental negotiations for the last of the World Trade buildings.

Some anticipate a sizable increase in the downtown vacancy rate as these 2

million square feet of new office space re-enter the market, but others

beieve it can be absorbed without much difficulty.

Financial Developments

Mid-sized banks in the Second District report that lending activity

increased dramatically in late 1986.

The surveyed banks attributed the

increase primarily to changes in the tax code which encouraged transactions

to be completed by year end.

The changes include the future elimination of

investment tax credits, a higher capital gains tax rate, and less favorable

treatment of depreciation expenses.

All of the banks surveyed stated that

last minute merger and acquisition activity was not a factor in the loan

surge.

In general, real estate loans, which had been strong throughout the

year, increased the most.

The banks added that they expect demand for both

real estate loans and small business loans to increase further during early

1987.

III-1

THIRD DISTRICT - PHILADELPHIA

The Third District economy appears healthy, although growth in several

sectors has slowed recently.

Manufacturing activity was only steady in January,

following six consecutive months of expansion.

Retail sales during the holiday

shopping season met merchants' plans, which called for modest year-over-year

gains, and they have been enjoying a healthy rate of sales since Christmas.

Automobile sales were high in December but low in January.

Total loan volume at

major Third District banks was growing slowly as 1986 came to a close, although

real estate lending remains strong.

Expectations for the Third District economy are generally positive.

majority of manufacturers polled in January predict steady or improving business

during the first half of the year.

Retailers also expect a good year, but

express some concern that consumer debt burdens could limit discretionary

spending.

Automobile dealers say it will be several months before the slack

following the December rush of car sales is reversed.

Bankers expect business

lending to parallel moderate economic growth in 1987, but they believe consumers

will not be willing to add much to their current debt levels.

MANUFACTURING

After posting six consecutive monthly gains, the Third District

manufacturing sector is pausing in January, according to the latest Business

Outlook Survey.

Overall, business is running at a steady rate in both the

durable and nondurable goods sectors.

While firms reporting improved business

in January edged out those reporting slower business, they did so by only a slim

margin.

This lull is reflected in most measures of industrial activity.

New

orders are up fractionally, but shipments, order backlogs, and inventories are

111-2

virtually unchanged.

Employment is also at a standstill.

Industrial prices in the area are mostly stable; 80 percent of the firms

contacted in January said both input and output prices were unchanged from

December.

However, 15 percent noted increased costs for the goods they

purchase, and 12 percent charged more for their own products.

In their outlook for the first half of 1987, local manufacturers have

mostly positive views.

Forty-three percent of the January survey respondents

expect continued growth and 38 percent anticipate steady conditions; only 15

percent forecast a slowdown.

orders and shipments.

Overall, survey respondents expect increases in

They remain cautious, however, and are planning no

changes in either employment or capital spending schedules during the next six

months.

RETAIL

Retailers generally made their modest Christmas sales targets, averaging

4-5 percent over 1985, after a late burst of buying.

varied widely by type of store, however.

Year-over-year gains

Specialty retailers recorded the best

increases, with sales at some stores up around 10 percent from the previous

year; general merchandise stores posted gains at the lower end of the scale.

Clothing and housewares were the best performing product lines.

Going into the

holiday season, inventories were leaner than in previous years; thus, retailers

did not resort to unplanned markdowns despite the slow start of Christmas

buying.

Store executives contacted in January said their inventory-to-sales

ratios remain about where they want them.

Automobile sales were strong in

December as buyers took advantage of the expiring sales tax deduction, according

to dealers.

Retailers are optimistic that the healthy rate of sales so far in January

indicates a good year ahead.

However, some express concern that discretionary

III-3

spending could lag, as consumers make payments on automobiles and other

high-priced merchandise purchased late in 1986.

Automobile dealers reported a

sharp slowdown in sales in January, which they attribute to the shifting of

purchases into 1986; they do not expect sales to pick up for several months.

FINANCE

Total loan volume at large Third District banks edged up slightly during

the first three weeks of December, and near the end of the year stood

approximately 15 percent above the December 1985 level.

especially robust, and commercial lending is also strong.

Real estate lending is

Bankers say loan

demand in these categories was high near the end of the year due to tax changes

which became effective January 1.

Lending officers expect commercial and

industrial loan demand to grow this year at nearly the same rate as it did in

1986, provided the economy does not weaken.

pressure despite a healthy economy.

But bank profits may come under

Although still a minority, an increasing

number of Third District banks say their net interest margins may shrink this

year as a result of increased competition in lending to the middle market and a

slowdown in deposit growth.

Growth in consumer loan volume at major Third District banks tapered off

during 1986, and near the end of the year consumer credit outstanding was

approximately 10 percent above the December 1985 level.

This is a continuation

of a trend to slower growth in consumer lending that began in the second half of

1985.

Local bankers generally believe that consumers are approaching the limit

of their willingness to add to debt burdens.

Nevertheless, home equity lending

appears to be increasing, prompted by the new tax law and strong promotion by

banks.

A significant portion of this new lending reflects consolidation of bank

and merchant credit card debt, however.

III-4

REAL ESTATE

Commercial and residential real estate markets in the Third District are

active, and most real estate contacts expect healthy conditions in 1987.

Demand

for office space continues to absorb new construction; new buildings are

substantially pre-leased, especially in the Philadelphia and Wilmington central

business districts.

There is more slack in suburban areas, and leasing activity

is expected to decline somewhat this year in these outlying markets.

For

industrial properties, realtors forecast stable or slightly easing demand this

year.

Residential real estate activity is strong.

The average rate for 30-year

fixed rate mortgages has fallen to around 9 percent in the region, and realtors

say this enables a substantial number of buyers to afford homes for the first

time.

Consequently, sales and prices rose throughout 1986, and realtors expect

this trend to continue.

However, builders note increasing resistance to higher

prices for newly constructed homes.

One large mortgage lender is predicting a

10 percent decline in housing starts in the region this year, but most builders

think this is an overly pessimistic view.

IV-1

FOURTH DISTRICT - CLEVELAND

Summary

As regional businesses close the books

that

the

past

year

1986,

the

did not stand up to their initial high expectations.

The first quarter of 1987 is marked by uncertainties about

the

recent

tax

consensus

reform

effect

and about the length of the current recovery.

present, economic indicators show a moderate increase

the

production,

new

orders, and retail sales and a slight reduction in inventories.

Retail Sales

late

holiday

shopping

slow sales early in the season.

holiday

season

due

partly

Retail sales grew at a

fourth

quarter.

Low

helped many retailers recover from

Sales continued to

spree

strong

after

the

post-Christmas bargains and mild weather.

annual

profit

percentage

margins

rate

foreign

throughout

the

manufacturers

and

importers have lead some retailers to expect import prices to rise at

to 5 percent annual rate over the next quarter.

Domestic

a year ago.

automobile

sales

were up as much as 50 percent over sales

Most of the increase is reportedly due to changes in

far

1987 have been weak.

commented that sales were the slowest

laws.

Consequently,

anticipated

the

sales

year-end

rush,

years.

inventories

are

Since

tax

One dealer

most

reported

the

dealers

"comfortable" levels.

Import dealers reported similar

dealers

feared

produced abroad.

that

sales

volumes.

Some

foreign

car

a weak dollar may result in price increases for cars

IV-2

Labor Markets

Ohio added 19,500 new jobs in November, increasing

0.43

whole.

percent

compared

0.27

percent

growth

total

employment

in the country as a

This increase brought the Ohio unemployment rate

7.2

percent,

just slightly higher than the national rate.

First

quarter

1987

projections

Employment Outlook Survey suggest

will

that

include

Pittsburgh,

the

this

slower than the nation as a whole.

cities in the District have outlooks

These

better

Manpower

region's

employment

growth

However, three of the largest

than

those

Columbus and Cincinnati.

are expected services, wholesale/retail and

Incorporated

durable

the

nation.

Employment increases

manufacturing,

while

job losses are expected in finance, insurance and real estate.

Manufacturing

Manufacturers

report

for

November

increase

production, and prices and a reduction in

inventories

month.

increased

Total

manufacturing

employment

from

and

came

exclusively

glassware,

and

from

durables,

general

industrial

new

the

orders,

slightly in November,

although it is over 2 percent below its level of a year

gain

ago.

The

recent

which were up 1.2 percent.

machinery

led

the

Glass

monthly

employment increases.

Steel

production

approximately the same rate

since

November

1985,

Ohio

steel

fell

decrease

produced

production

while falling 20 percent nationwide.

tonnage

3 percent

U.S.

during

November,

production.

However,

increased

8 percent in Ohio

Consequently, Ohio's share

total

the U.S. rose from 15 percent to 20 percent over the

IV-3

last year.

LTV recently announced intentions to spend

$500

million

over

the next two years to improve its flat-rolled steel division.

Uncertainty

about

and the effects of tax

executives,

the

ability

reform

have

especially

percent

generated

in Northeast Ohio.

expected the first quarter

Twenty

to sustain the recovery much longer

1987

pessimism

among

business

Respondents of a recent survey

the

worst

three

years.

businesses surveyed reported unplanned expenditures in

1986:IV in order to take advantage of

the

percentage

spending

indicated

cut

lost investment incentives.

backs

old

tax

laws,

and

the

same

plans in 1987 because they

In addition, a record

high

percentage

(20%)

of business executives expected no profits in the first quarter of 1987.

Housing

seasonal

housing construction

and

expected

remain

strong demand for

volume

The level of seasonally adjusted

mortgage

lending

moderate levels in most markets.

single-family

rates.

mortgage

the

ebb.

However,

homes

because

tax

1987

Builders expect

reform

and

low

the shortage of developable land may slow some

housing starts, especially in the Columbus and Cincinnati areas.

The consensus among those interviewed is

decline

during

rates by

proportion

first

half

mortgage

rates

drop

interest

charging

higher

current

have

been

They are partially offsetting the lower

rates.

points.

volume,

will

of 1987, but will rise slowly during the

Lenders report keen competition for mortgages and

second half.

forced

the

that

but

Mortgage

most

refinancings

are

small

lenders expect another wave of

refinancings if mortgage rates decline another 50 to 75 basis points.

IV-4

Banking

District

several

weeks.

substantially

Commercial

loan

and

demand

Loans

the

strengthened

outstanding

last

industrial

two

loans

considerably

all

loan

fall

and

volume,

summer

months.

consumer

and

major

months,

particularly

expanded

percent in December, up sharply from little or

the

over

the

past

categories

grew

December.

an annual rate of over 65

growth

experienced

In addition to the turnaround in business

real

estate

lending

also

accelerated

December from their already high levels.

However,

loan

demand

may

soften

the

next few months as both

manufacturing and nonmanufacturing companies surveyed

outside

financing

considered

unlikely

the

have

reported

few

that

months.

FIFTH DISTRICT - RICHMOND

Overview

Manufacturing has resumed its rise after leveling off late last year from

an upward trend that began in midsummer.

Producers are even more optimistic

than a few weeks ago about prospects for their businesses in the months ahead.

Coal production has increased in recent weeks and further increases are

expected as the year progresses.

In retailing, sales were weak in early

January, but inventories are at desired levels, prices are mostly unchanged,

and revenues are expected to rise again soon.

In the District economy as a

whole, somewhat slower growth is expected in 1987.

The region's farmers,

however, should enjoy a significant increase in income.

Consumer Spending

Retail sales activity was weak in early January, according to our survey.

Fifty-six percent of the respondents report seasonally adjusted declines in

sales and employment.

Retail inventories appear to be in line with

expectations; retailers are optimistic that business will improve in the

coming months and they are restocking accordingly.

Seventy percent of responding retailers report no change in the prices of

the goods they sell or in the cost of goods they buy.

Among the remaining 30

percent, those reporting price increases outnumber those reporting declines.

Manufacturing and Mining

Our survey indicates an increase in the seasonally adjusted pace of

manufacturing activity in early January as compared with December.

Thirty-seven percent of the respondents report January-over-December increases

in shipments and 24 percent report declines.

In our previous survey, 29

percent reported November-over-October increases in shipments and 27 percent

reported declines. Manufacturing employment appears to be up slightly in

January; only six percent of the respondents report fewer employees, 77

percent indicate no change, and 17 percent report more workers on the job.

Nondurable goods industries continue to show greater strength than durable

goods industries, although furniture industry representatives report further

increases in activity.

The manufacturing outlook also appears to be improving.

Among

respondents, 35 percent report increases in new orders and 25 percent report

declines.

In the previous survey, increases were reported by 25 percent,

declines by 26 percent.

Unfilled orders also appear to be rising.

Looking ahead, manufacturers continue to anticipate increases in shipments

and new orders.

In our latest survey, about two-thirds indicate that they

expect increases in these categories, compared with about half in the previous

survey.

Fifty-nine percent of the respondents believe general business

conditions in the nation will be better six months from now; this percentage

rose in January after declining in each of the three previous surveys.

Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods were apparently rising in

early January, a change of direction from the four previous surveys.

Higher

inventory levels in January as compared with December are reported by 30

percent of the respondents; 20 percent report lower levels.

In the previous

survey, 26 percent had reported higher levels, and 43 percent had reported

lower levels.

Manufacturers' inventories of materials, however, appear to

have declined for the fifth consecutive survey.

Regional coal production was slightly higher in mid-December than a year

ago.

Coal producers are cautiously optimistic about their sales in 1987

because they are less worried about the impact of possible acid rain

legislation on demand, they expect buyers to stockpile coal this year because

of the threat of a strike early in 1988, and they expect to compete better

with foreign coal suppliers.

Increased coal production will probably not

result in more jobs for coal miners, however, because of advanced mining

technology.

Agriculture

A survey of agricultural specialists indicates farmers in this region

should face brighter income prospects in 1987.

Crop producers will probably

be selling their harvests at low prices, but their production should be up

substantially over the drought-reduced levels of 1986.

will likely benefit from the low grain prices.

Livestock producers

Poultry production, a large

part of the region's livestock sector, stands to benefit the most because the

costs of producing poultry are especially sensitive to grain prices.

District Outlook and State and Local Government Purchases

A combination of forecasts from economists who project activity in their

home states yields a forecast for moderate growth in 1987 in the District as a

whole.

Regional forecasters are about evenly split between those who expect their

state and local governments to increase real purchases significantly and those

who expect little change in economic stimulus from their state and local

governments.

VI-1

SIXTH DISTRICT - ATLANTA

Economic growth in the Southeast continues at a moderate pace.

employment gains are strong, but manufacturing job gains are weak.

Service

Holiday spending

was checkered because oil patch weakness somewhat offset gains in areas benefiting

from strong population and income growth. Home building's momentum may be slowing,

and weakness in office building is causing overall commercial construction to shrink.

Tourism continues to boost the regional economy.

In agriculture, bountiful crops

depressed vegetable prices and grower profits but raised revenues for citrus producers.

Employment and Industry.

District labor force growth outpaced employment

growth in November, and the region's unemployment rate edged upward to 8.1 percent.

The unemployment rate has hovered near 8 percent since April.

Job gains in services

maintained the momentum of previous months as business and health services posted

especially strong employment gains over the past year.

Employment in the real estate

sector also has continued to expand.

Manufacturing activity has registered little overall change for most sectors since

September. Although textile and apparel imports were at record levels in 1986, mergers,

consolidations, and the closing of inefficient mills have resulted in a more productive and

competitive domestic textile industry. Mills are running at 92 percent of capacity, up 9

percent from last year, and textile employment has turned up. Labor-intensive apparel

producers are bearing the brunt of import competition; apparel employment is down by

7,900 workers just in the last year.

Appliance producers report record levels of shipments due to the strong housing

market.

Printing and publishing companies have been adding to job rolls as savings and

loans, brokerage houses, and banks offer new financial services that require checks and

documentation.

The transportation equipment sector continues to add jobs on the

strength of auto sales and aircraft parts production. Weakness in energy drilling activity

continues to batter Louisiana; employment in oil and gas extraction fell by about 22,600

workers last year.

VI-2

Consumer Spending.

Holiday consumer spending was sluggish in Louisiana and

Mississippi, while retailers elsewhere in the region posted moderate sales gains that

generally met expectations.

Because of limited markdowns, most retailers expect their

1986 profit performance to be somewhat better than in 1985. Merchants reportedly were

very satisfied with inventory levels at the end of their fiscal year and were generally

optimistic

about the outlook

for 1987 despite

fears that some buyers may be

overextended.

District car sales rebounded sharply in December from the sluggish pace of

October and November, largely in response to the well-advertised sales tax deduction

advantage of purchasing a new vehicle before January 1987. Ford Motor Company's sales

in the Southeast soared 45 percent in December, matching the company's strong car sales

growth nationally.

For all of 1986, Ford sales in the Southeast and the nation were off

3.3 and 0.2 percent from 1985 levels. Because fewer incentives are available to maintain

consumer interest, the 1987 car sales outlook is uncertain.

Construction.

November marked the second successive monthly decline in

single-family building permits, perhaps foreshadowing a construction slowdown in the

region.

However, single-family houses in the medium price range of $80,000-$120,000

still are selling very well, and rising land

costs, coupled with improved home

affordability, have prompted some builders of lower-priced homes to move into the

medium-priced housing market.

Although overall commercial construction is slowing, retail construction has

continued at a healthy pace, spurred by continuing population in-migration. Occupancy

rates are high at new shopping centers in Birmingham and Atlanta, and few lease rate

concessions are being given.

In Tampa, a slowdown in retail construction has helped

boost occupancy rates and effective lease rates, while new store openings have caused a

glut in New Orleans.

Industrial construction over the past year has been strongest

region-wide in the high-tech office and warehouse space segment.

VI-3

Financial Services. Loan growth at large regional commercial banks continued to

edge downward in November as consumer lending experienced its largest drop-off since

July.

Increased competition from nonbank institutions and slow economic growth have

contributed to the consumer lending performance.

firm.

Real estate lending has remained

The market for home equity loans continues to surge at about the same fast pace

reported for the nation.

December automobile loans undoubtedly grew sharply with the

year-end acceleration of car sales.

Tourism.

Travel to the Southeast, particularly by auto, remained strong in

November; hotel/motel tax receipts for most of the southeastern states posted doubledigit year-over-year increases.

Hotels in parts of Florida experienced occupancy rates

near capacity during the holiday season. Moreover, advance room bookings in Florida are

up 4 to 5 percent from last year.

To date, the fifteenth anniversary celebration at

Disney World has been a huge success and is expected to continue to boost attendance

through next October. Convention business also is posting favorable gains throughout the

Southeast.

Agriculture and Mining.

Regional coal production fell 15 percent in 1986 from

1985's depressed level; Alabama's production decline was much greater than Tennessee's.

Strong competition from cheaper oil and natural gas led to lower coal prices, reduced

production, and losses for mining operations. Oil price stability stimulated well drilling

in the District even before the current price rise. The number of oil rigs operating at

year's end was the highest since last May and 23 percent more than last summer.

Extremely favorable weather in late 1986 over much of Florida's vegetableproducing area has resulted in a bountiful winter harvest, especially of tomatoes.

Unfortunately, vegetable prices reportedly are below production cost for many growers.

Florida's citrus farmers are faring better with a larger crop than last season because

prices are holding up better.

VII-1

SEVENTH DISTRICT - CHICAGO

Summary

Activity has been sluggish in the Seventh District, but

construction and retail sales have been surprisingly vigorous.

Growth of

total employment in the District continues to be less than in the U.S.;

however, manufacturing employment rose recently, after an extended

decline.

Other steelmakers continue to benefit from the 5 1/2-month strike

at USX.

Auto output has been cut back modestly, from high levels.

Most

lines of mechanical capital goods remain weak, reflecting limited demand

from both domestic buyers and overseas, including less developed countries

that had been good customers.

District continues vigorous.

is not yet evident.

Construction in major markets in the

An expected slowing in offices and apartments

Consumer spending improved in November and December,

through a broad range of products.

Employment

Total payroll employment rose less last year in the District's

five-state region, taken as a whole, than in the nation.

However, Indiana

outpaced the U.S., reflecting strength in construction and various

services.

In contrast, employment in Iowa declined.

Total employment in

the five-state region finally has drawn even with peaks reached in

1978-79.

Employment estimates for Indiana and Wisconsin are 2 percent

above previous peaks, but Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan are still below that

level.

Manufacturing employment turned up in the fourth quarter in the

VII-2

District states, along with the nation, after trending lower for about two

years.

However, various employers continue to announce plant closings and

new reductions in staff.

Steel

Developments in steel have been dominated by the protracted USX

work stoppage begun last August 1. Other mills at the foot of Lake

Michigan are running at or near capacity for steel sheet, chiefly for

autos.

A drop in industry shipments in November is thought by industry

analysts to reflect depletion of USX's inventories built up before the

strike.

Unemployment benefits for eligible steel strikers are nearly

exhausted.

Because start-up to full operation will take 6-8 weeks for its

major mills, USX must return to work soon if it is to get its share of the

seasonally strong second quarter market.

progress toward settlement.

Local press reports hint at

Steel imports continue above the

Administration's market-share targets.

A larger share of imports is coming

from countries whose currencies have not declined versus the dollar.

Motor Vehicles

The surge in car and light truck sales at year-end, driven by tax

law changes, reversed a two-month inventory buildup.

GM extended holiday

shutdowns at two District plants, and at several other plants, most for two

extra weeks, to control stocks.

Industry analysts expect car sales to fall

in 1987, with domestic models accounting for most of the drop.

Another

Japanese motor vehicle assembly plant will be built for Fuji-Isuzu near

Lafayette, Indiana.

Demand for larger trucks has improved, reflecting a

rise in truck freight tonnage over the past year and increased replacement

VII-3

demand.

Inventories of used trucks are down.

The production rate for

heavy trucks has risen about 8% from 1986 lows.

Trucking industry

adjustments in response to deregulation appear to be largely over.

autos, purchases of mobile homes and boats were boosted in late 1986 by tax

considerations.

Equipment

Demand for most capital equipment remains soft.

Cutbacks in auto

industry capital spending have adversely affected producers of industrial

robots, machine tools, and other capital goods.

equipment also continues weak.

Heavy construction

The top maker of earth-moving equipment

plans to close 3 more plants, including one in Iowa.

Demand by less

developed countries for construction equipment remains low.

Two leading

producers of mobile hydraulic construction cranes are said to view these

lines as "discontinued businesses".

by a labor dispute since August 1986.

Most of Deere's plants have been shut

Despite the strike, stocks of farm

equipment remain ample because demand is extremely weak.

of light construction equipment have become tight.

equipment are virtually at rock bottom.

However, stocks

Orders for railroad

The leading locomotive producer

halted output of new units indefinitely last November at its Chicago-area

plant.

Demand for petroleum industry equipment is very low, despite an

upturn in drilling activity in the latter part of 1986.

In this and other

lines, demand for new equipment is held down by a market overhang of good

used equipment.

Demand for some types of specialized equipment, including

food machinery and airline equipment, is reported slightly stronger.

steel company and a large aluminum fabricator in the District plan

VII-4

substantial upgradings of their facilities.

Expansion plans are likely to

be raised in the chemical and paper industries because of pressures on

capacity.

Nonresidential Construction

Contracts for nonresidential building in District states in 1986,

through 11 months, were slightly ahead of last year, with Michigan up

substantially, and the other states somewhat lower.

Construction activity

and bidding on commercial projects continue strong in the Chicago area.

Sales of commercial and industrial buildings surged at year-end to beat the

new tax law.

Commercial construction activity in this area is expected to

fall 10 percent or more in 1987, but shows no clear evidence yet of doing

so.

Some proposed office buildings have been postponed awaiting anchor

tenants.

However, others are being pushed ahead, including several of over

1 million square feet.

mild weather.

Activity in December and January was boosted by

Repaving and other highway work will be abnormally low until

federal funding is restored.

Residential Construction

Homes and apartment construction was up strongly in 1986 in many

District centers.

Conditions varied widely, however.

agriculture and heavy industry remain depressed.

Areas dominated by

Shortages of skilled

tradespeople, particularly carpenters, in the Chicago, Indianapolis, and

Detroit areas have put upward pressures on builders' costs.

Some analysts

expect housing starts in the Chicago area to fall in 1987 due to fewer

multifamily starts.

A survey of landlords indicates that apartment rents

in this area will rise only 3.8%, on average, in 1987, much less than would

VII-5

be needed to cover the adverse effects of tax reform on cash flow from new

apartments.

Markets for condominiums have improved, as the excess of

"investment condos" has been worked down.

Home resales were up strongly in

the Chicago area in 1986, and this uptrend continued into January 1987.

Used home prices in the area rose an estimated 14% on average in 1986.

Detroit and Milwaukee resales also rose strongly in 1986, with further

growth expected in 1987.

Interest rates on fixed-rate home mortgages are

predominantly in the 9 to 9 1/4% range, but lenders increasingly are

cutting rates below 9%.

Particularly attractive fixed rates, e.g. 8 1/2%,

attract lengthy waiting lists of would-be applicants.

Initial rates on

adjustable rates loans vary widely, with some below 7%.

Consumer Spending

District reports on department and chain store sales indicate

improvement in November and December.

Sales of most types of general

merchandise were described as good, especially apparel, toys, and home

furnishings.

An Iowa producer of major home appliances is adding workers

to meet strong demand.

Mild weather has restrained sales of

weather-related consumer products.

Inventories are generally in good

shape, but somewhat low for fast-moving items.

through the Christmas sales period.

Credit use continued heavy

Price increases on imported items due

to the lower dollar and trade restraints have not yet appeared at retail in

most cases, but will be increasingly evident in 1987.

VIII-1

EIGHTH DISTRICT - ST. LOUIS

Summary

Despite an upturn by the manufacturing sector, the expansion of

District employment has been sluggish in recent months and has trailed

the national average.

Construction, however, has grown more rapidly in

the District than in the nation, led primarily by the residential

sector.

Preliminary reports suggest that District holiday sales were

moderately from the previous year's level.

Fourth quarter lending

activity at District banks was characterized by continued strong growth

in commercial and real estate loans.

Agricultural loan volumes and loan

quality continue to decrease.

Employment

For the third consecutive month, the District's seasonallyadjusted unemployment rate was 7.7 percent in November.

District nonfarm

employment grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate during the three months

ending November, trailing the nation's 3.0 percent rate.

Employment in

Tennessee grew quickly during the period (4.8 percent rate) while little

change occurred in Kentucky or Missouri.

The number of construction jobs

in the District expanded at a rapid 7.2 percent rate for the three month

period.

District manufacturing employment grew at a 1.0 percent rate for

the three months ending November, but was still 0.5 percent below

year-ago levels.

Gains in the textile/apparel and electrical equipment

sectors contributed to the recent turnaround.

Employment in the District

transportation sector has trended downward since early 1986 with gains in

aircraft manufacturing offset by losses in motor vehicle production.

VIII-2

Construction

For the three months ending November, the value of District

residential construction contracts grew by 12.6 percent, exceeding the

nation's 1.9 percent growth.

Residential contracts during the period

were 8.9 percent above the level of the same period last year, slightly

higher than the increase nationally.

District nonresidential construction contracts grew by 6.5

percent in the September-November period, nearly matching the nation's

6.3 percent expansion.

Compared with year-ago levels, however, District

contracts for the period were 11.2 percent higher in contrast to a 5.7

percent decline nationally.

Missouri was responsible for much of the

District's construction growth with the value of residential and

nonresidential contracts issued in the three-month period up 27.3 and

34.1 percent, respectively, from year-ago levels.

Consumer Spending

District retail sales followed national trends in October by

falling sharply due to a drop in auto sales.

Holiday sales generally met

retailers' expectations of a moderate 4-6 percent rise over year-ago

levels.

Most retailers indicated that inventories were close to desired

levels.

Reports indicate that holiday sales were soft in the Little Rock

area despite widespread unscheduled markdowns the week before Christmas.

Banking

Total loans outstanding at large weekly-reporting District banks

grew at a 14.2 percent annual rate for the three months ending December.

Fourth quarter loan activity saw a continued acceleration in commercial

VIII-3

and real estate lending.

Commercial loans expanded at a 15.8 percent

rate for the three months compared with a 3.4 percent rate for the same

period last year.

The St. Louis and Memphis markets have experienced

strong growth in the commercial area as a result of increased purchases

of loan participations rather than as a result of strong loan demand.

Real estate loans grew at a 26.5 percent annual rate in the fourth

quarter versus a 5.3 percent rate for the same period in 1985.

Consumer

lending gained momentum during the period, growing at a 26.3 percent

annual rate, a rate comparable to that of the same period last year.

Agriculture

The volume of agricultural loans at District banks has followed

a two-year downward trend.

The volume of farm loans outstanding for the

third quarter was 9.6 percent lower than one year earlier and 13.4

percent lower than two years earlier.

13.8 percent from year-ago levels.

Nationally, farm loans fell by

The largest decrease in the District

was in Missouri where farm loans fell by 15.5 percent from the previous

year. The lower levels of farm debt can be attributed to lower costs of

many petroleum-based inputs such as fuel and fertilizer, lower land

prices and increased scrutiny of farm loans on the part of lenders.

While banks' farm loan volumes are falling, their share of farm loans is

increasing because of the Farm Credit System's higher interest rates.

The quality of farm loans, as measured by nonperforming farm

loans, has continued to deteriorate both in the nation and the District.

Loan losses at District agricultural banks, however, have stabilized

while they continue to increase at the national level.

IX - 1

NINTH DISTRICT--MINNEAPOLIS

Economic growth in the Ninth District may have picked up a bit late

in 1986.

Consumer spending was somewhat stronger than expected in December.

Ongoing commercial projects have kept contractors busy.

tors have not deteriorated, and

some may pick up.

spots have appeared in agriculture.

Major resource sec-

A few scattered bright

But district states are still struggling

with projected budget deficits.

Consumer Spending

A late buying rush helped

chandise moderately

above

promotions did quite well.

1985's.

keep 1986 holiday sales of general merOne

general

retailer

says

its

planned

Another says its December sales were higher than a

year earlier, with most of the increase coming during the holiday week.

retailers were left with only normal levels of inventories.

Both

Reports from this

Bank's directors and the district's newspaper editors indicate that holiday

sales followed the dichotomy of weaker sales at small town, Main Street retailers and stronger sales at regional shopping centers and in larger, diversified cities.

In accord with the national trend, district sales of motor vehicles

were also strong in December, as buyers rushed to take advantage of their last

chance to deduct sales taxes from their federal taxable income.

During the

last 10 days of December, district sales of domestic manufacturers were 50.4

percent ahead of the comparable period in 1985.

Due to this rush, one domes-

tic manufacturer reports, its total sales for the whole month of December were

"great," and it had low inventories of both cars and trucks left for January.

Lower interest rates have continued to fuel housing activity.

Home

sales in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area registered big gains late last year:

IX - 2

They were

23 percent higher during November and December than during those

months a year ago.

during

1986,

but

Homebuilders contacted in Minnesota report statewide gains

think

a recent

tariff

Canadian lumber

may raise

home

prices a bit in 1987.

Tourist spending at district ski resorts has been spotty lately, due

scattered

Michigan

Resorts

has

snowfall.

had

Fortunately,

strong

season

the

far,

hard-pressed

according

Upper

Peninsula

Bank director.

Montana with adequate snow have benefited from Idaho's lack of

snow.

Nonresidential Construction

The geographic pattern of nonresidential construction has also been

varied lately.

Despite moderately high vacancy rates, contractors

in the

Minneapolis/St. Paul metro area have been kept busy into 1987 by commercial

construction.

Several large downtown office projects are under way there, and

some large new office and retail complexes have been planned in the area's

southern suburbs.

over

Contractors in Duluth, Minnesota, are looking forward to

$700 million of

nonresidential construction lasting

through

1988.

Pierre, South Dakota, booster notes that two-thirds of the work on its new

convention center

and hotel

still

remains.

But

a Montana contractor says

construction sector activity is "all but nonexistent" in that state, due to a

slow economy and a state budget crunch.

Resources

Resource-related industries have continued their mixed performance,

although some improvement is foreseen.

Wood products sectors have continued

plywood

well.

workers.

recently

established

operation may

add

Gold mines in Montana and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan are one of

IX - 3

the few bright spots in the mining industry.

But the oil and gas sector is

still nearly idle, with only 28 rigs working in the district.

The recent

increase in crude oil prices should help that sector some.

Agriculture

Signs of stability for some farmers in some parts of the district

have appeared recently.

Wheat prices rose somewhat in December, and corn and

soybean prices were up a bit as well.

One Bank director notes that federal

government payments have helped struggling Montana wheat farmers.

Livestock

operations have continued to be aided by low feed prices, good market prices,

and mild weather.

improvement.

Two surveys of district agricultural bankers indicate some

One of them suggests that bankers

thought fourth quarter farm

earnings were higher than a year earlier; the other, only that general conditions

deteriorated

expected

demand

district

farmers

slower

materialized

are

still

rate

during

1986

than in

some recent

struggling,

with

land

little

1985.

Better-than-

sales.

Still, many

prospect

for

dramatic

improvement.

Public Finance

A big cause for concern recently has been the fiscal health of state

governments.

District states are struggling to balance their budgets.

North

Dakota's governor has called for a special session to deal with the issue, and

voters may be faced with increases in sales or income taxes.

Montana, stung

in part by lower mineral taxes, has had to plan cutbacks in its higher education spending.

And Minnesota, though partly aided by higher-than-expected tax

collections

December,

biennium.

still

must

plan

for

potential

shortfall

TENTH DISTRICT - KANSAS CITY

Overview.

modestly.

Tenth District economic activity continues to improve

Retail sales are moderate to strong, and auto sales for December

were up due to tax law effects.

Inventory levels are viewed as satisfactory

to slightly high, and prices are expected to remain relatively stable.

Housing activity has been helped by mild weather.

generally depressed.

The energy industry remains

Deposits at district banks are stable to higher compared

with a month earlier.

Paydowns on farm loans are improved compared with a

year ago.

Retail Sales.

Retailers report moderate to strong increases in sales

over year-ago levels, with sales of women's apparel particularly strong.

Prices have changed little during the last three months and are expected to

remain stable.

All retailers report satisfactory inventory levels.

Although

some retailers are optimistic about 1987 sales, many express concern that

first quarter sales might be soft.

Automobile sales.

December auto sales were up from previous months,

mainly due to the 1987 elimination of the sales tax deduction.

credit market conditions have also helped sales.

Favorable

While inventory levels are

generally acceptable, a few dealers report slightly high inventories.

Dealers

report a cautious optimism regarding future sales.

Purchasing agents.

Purchasing agents in the Tenth District report stable

to slightly higher input prices.

the next three months.

Most expect relatively stable prices over

Materials are readily available, and no problems with

availability or lead times are expected.

Most firms are reported to be

trimming inventories and generally plan to continue this policy over the near

term.

Housing activity and finance.

Mild weather this winter has allowed

housing starts to run at or ahead of last year's levels.

Multi-family housing

construction has been strong in some areas, while strength in single-family

construction has been more widespread.

Homebuilders are optimistic for new

home sales after some sluggishness in December sales.

Builders report no

problems with either the availability or delivery of housing materials, and

materials prices are generally steady.

Most savings institutions report light savings outflows over the last

twelve months due to competition for these funds, but flows have leveled off

Most expect some savings inflows in the near future.

in the last month.

Demand for mortgage funds varies from up slightly to down moderately.

Mortgage interest rates have declined slightly, and respondents expect

continued modest declines in the future.

Energy.

The district's energy industry has recovered only slightly from

the weakness caused by the dramatic decline in oil prices in 1986.

Oil prices

remain well below year ago levels, although a recent OPEC agreement to

restrict output has caused prices to firm somewhat.

Exploration and

development activity in the district has rebounded only slightly and remains

generally depressed.

The average weekly number of operating drilling rigs in

the Tenth District increased from 272 in November to 294 in December, about

half the number recorded a year earlier.

Agriculture.

Throughout much of the Tenth District, paydowns on

agricultural loans are satisfactory, and generally improved over last year.

However, due to late harvests and wet weather, some areas in the district

report delayed paydowns on 1986 agricultural loans.

Late harvests have also

delayed spring credit decisions for some district banks.

Even so, most

bankers report that very few of their current borrowers will be denied credit

this spring, due to previous action to eliminate problem credits from loan

portfolios and to use of the loan guarantee program of the Farmers Home

Administration.

To limit additional build-up in commodity surpluses, 1987 farm programs

will allow producers to idle up to 35 percent of their acreage.

Across the

district, bankers generally expect a high proportion of farmers--perhaps

exceeding two-thirds--to participate in the set-aside program, although few

farmers have committed to date.

A mild winter, abundant winter wheat pasture, and low grain prices have

encouraged many district cow-calf operators to hold more calves through the

winter this year than last.

Low grain prices and

relatively strong hog

prices have led to expectations of an expansion in hog production, but few

signs of an expansion have emerged.

Banking.

Total loan demand was mixed, and total deposit activity was

generally constant or up, at Tenth District banks during the past month.

The

number of bankers reporting an increase in loan demand equaled the number of

bankers reporting a decrease.

The prime rate did not change at most banks,

and changes in the near term are not generally expected.

Consumer loan rates

either fell or remained constant, and further changes in the near term are not

generally expected.

Demand deposits, NOW's, Super-NOW's, MMDA's, and passbook

savings accounts tended to increase.

deposits generally remained constant.

IRA's, large CD's, and small time

XI-1

ELEVENTH DISTRICT--DALLAS

The Eleventh District economy has begun a modest recovery, but

overall activity is still below a year earlier.

manufacturing appears to be leveling off.

The decline in

Drilling has rebounded somewhat.

Nonresidential construction remains stable, but residential construction

contract values have declined.

Retail sales have been weak, but auto sales

were particularly strong in December.

The condition of the financial

institutions still reflects the overall weakness of the region's economy.

Despite some increases in December, prices of District agricultural

products remain below a year earlier.

Manufacturers are noting more positive signs than at any time in

the last two years, although refineries have cut production slightly in

anticipation of a seasonal downturn in demand.

A host of manufacturers of

various energy-related durable goods report that orders have either

bottomed out or that slight recoveries have begun.

Construction-related

durable goods producers say that declines in orders are over.

For primary

metals manufacturers, increases in demand from the rest of the country are

offsetting declining orders from District customers, so that overall orders

are unchanged.

The steady pace of nonresidential construction that has

continued since early in the first quarter has led to stability in the

fabricated metals industry.

Production of high technology goods such as

instruments and electronics is stable.

Orders for transportation

equipment, chiefly in the area of defense-related aircraft, are up.

The drilling rig count in the District states has risen 12 percent

on a seasonally adjusted basis since hitting bottom in July.

Nevertheless,

XI-2

the count for December was still less than half its year-earlier level.

Leading indicators of drilling activity suggest that the rig count will

continue to increase slowly in the near term.

The seismic crew count

reversed its prolonged decline and rose in both October and November.

Texas, well permit applications have also edged upward.

Respondents say,

however, that recent oil price increases will not result in large increases

in drilling activity anytime soon.

Although nonresidential construction has stabilized after falling

severely in the first half of 1986, residential construction continues to

decline.

While residential construction has been declining throughout most

of 1986, the bulk of the reductions have generally occurred in multifamily

construction.

During the fourth quarter, however, the weakness has spread

to single family building.

Nonbuilding construction remains fairly steady.

Automobile dealers attribute strong sales during December to

buyers rushing to make purchases while they could still take advantage of

the deductibility of the sales tax under federal income tax law.

Inventories are generally near their desired levels.

Respondents report

that Japanese manufacturers continue to partially offset the price effects

of the appreciating yen by accepting lower profit margins.

Dealers expect

a slow first quarter because of continued weakness in the regional economy

and changes in the tax laws.

Retail sales remain slow because of lackluster economic conditions

in the District.

Some retailers note that holiday sales were somewhat

stronger than expected, but they say receipts were still below a year

earlier.

Big ticket goods, such as furniture and appliances, continue to

sell very poorly.

Respondents report some increases in apparel prices

XI-3

stemming from new import restrictions.

Retailers generally expect sluggish

sales through the first quarter.

District bank performance continues to reflect the region's

sluggish economic conditions.

At large banks, total loans have fallen well

below the year-earlier level, led by a significant year-to-year decline in

business loans.

Consumer loans are only slightly lower than a year

earlier, while real estate loans are slightly up.

Securities holdings have

increased markedly, although at a somewhat slower rate than at large banks

nationally.

Securities holdings as a share of total large bank assets,

however, have risen at a substantially faster rate in the District than

nationally.

Total deposits at the large banks remain far below

year-earlier levels, while borrowings continue to surge and were 36 percent

above last year's figure in December.

The largest proportional deposit

reduction has been in large time deposits.

At all District banks, total

deposits are also down from a year earlier.

Texas farmers received slightly higher prices in December,

compared with a month earlier, but livestock and crop prices generally

remain below a year earlier.

Despite a dip in livestock prices in

December, cattle producers continue to benefit from low feed costs and

relatively strong demand for beef.

Texas cotton production in 1986 is

estimated to be down almost 34 percent from that of 1985, as a result of

government acreage reductions and because bad weather reduced harvested

acres, yields, and quality.

Weather-related gross income losses to cotton

producers will exceed $50 million.

These losses will primarily affect

areas of west Texas where financial stress is already relatively high.

XII-1

TWELFTH DISTRICT -- SAN FRANCISCO

Summary

The end

1986

saw continued moderate growth

some

areas

failed

the

overall

Twelfth

District,

growth.

The Christmas season was a good one for retailers in most parts of

the

District.

picture,

with

although

in most parts

Manufacturing

strong

industries

activity

aerospace

continued

but

weakness

mixed

other

areas

Oil and copper mining activity appear to be inching

including electronics.

ahead, a marked improvement from the sharp downslides

in both

present

seen until recently

Construction and real estate activity were affected by

sectors.

tax reform considerations at the end of the year, and activity in singlecurrently

home markets

family

commercial

estate

activity.

Financial

with

tax-related

sector,

stronger

much

developments

activity

than

reflect

those

the

end

multi-family

the

real

year,

weak

multifamily and commercial lending, and continued strong mortgage activity.

Consumer Spending

The

Christmas

season

got

off

a slow start

in many parts

the

District, but a pickup later in the season led to satisfactory sales growth

in the 5 percent range in most areas.

growth of about

bonuses

were

from

$3000

The gains

achieved with

some

to the year-end

10 percent, which they attribute in part

averaging

received.

Washington retailers reported sales

that

over

115,000

Seattle-area

Boeing

employees

in Washington were particularly welcome because they

few price markdowns.

communities

with

weak

economies,

sharp

such

contrast,

Idaho

respondents

and

some

agricultural areas in eastern Oregon and central California, reported flat

or even declining sales and aggressive promotional activity.

XII-2

Reports indicate that end-of-year auto sales were strong in most parts

of the West, largely due to the elimination of sales tax deductions.

Some

respondents reported particularly dramatic year-end sales surges for luxury

automobiles.

In Oregon, which has no sales tax, little change in activity

at the end of the year was reported.

end

sales

spurt

borrowed

Most observers agree that the year-

from next

year

months of 1987 are expected to be slow.

tax reform on

some

the purchase of

respondents

reported

sales

during

first

few

Evidence regarding the impact of

other consumer durables

significant

the

effects

but

is more mixed, as

most

reported

little

discernable year-end activity.

Manufacturing

Little

has

Western

defense

orders

for

changed

contractors

commercial

developments

for

represent

the

West's

continue

aircraft

good news

the many other western cities

also

major

pull

continue

manufacturing

large

sectors.

projects,

roll

in.

for Seattle and Los Angeles,

while

These

as well as

for which aerospace activity contributes

the local economy.

The

electronics

and

semiconductor

industries

continue

suffer

the

consequences of weak demand, fierce competition, and resulting low prices.

For

example,

10 percent

one

Utah company

of its employees.

recently announced

Many companies

layoff

just

over

throughout the District lost

money in 1986.

Mining

At the end of 1986 some glimmers of hope began to appear for various

beleaguered sectors of the mining industry.

hiring rather than

In Utah, copper companies were

laying off workers, while

in Kern County

some laid-off oil workers have been called back to their jobs.

(California)

Moreover,

XII-3

some previously shut down oil wells in Kern County now are pumping again.

Construction and Real Estate

Construction

considerably

multifamily

in most

parts

and

nonresidential

the District,

building

and respondents

has

slowed

agreed

overbuilding has reduced substantially the incentive to build.

that

Some areas

saw further slowing just prior to the January 1 imposition of the new tax

bill,

but this was

not true

in areas where

economic conditions

slowdown in activity during the second half of 1986.

caused a

Some observers also

report that because changes in the tax law have reduced the attractiveness

real

estate

investment,

real

estate prices

have

fallen

are

expected to fall in the near future.

Single-family

because

the

construction

reductions

more affordable.

activity

interest

continues

rates

already

fare

much

seen have

better

made housing

No tax related changes have been seen or are expected in

single family home building.

Financial Sector

Reflecting

construction

changes

loans

dropped

construction

off

sharply

activity,

during

the

last

demand

months

for

1986.

However, there was a surge in tax-related deals at the end of the year as

sellers

raced

collect

capital

gains

under

the

old

tax

law,

which

generated additional loan demand among buyers.

Mortgage lending volume fell

but

towards the end of 1986

remained very strong in California.

1986,

California

savings

and

loans

had

Through the first

closed

loans than they had during the same period of 1985,

percent

in some areas,

ten months of

mortgage

and loan commitments

for October suggested that the trend was likely to continue through the end

the year.

Thus,

resale

activity remained

strong even

though housing

XII-4

starts

that

declined over

home

equity

the

loans

same period.

are

becoming

deduct their interest payments.

In addition,

popular

some

lenders report

borrowers

seek

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1987, February 10). Beige Book. Beige Book, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/beige_book_19870211

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_beige_book_19870211,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Beige Book},
  year = {1987},
  month = {Feb},
  howpublished = {Beige Book, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/beige_book_19870211},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}