Beige Book
For use at 2:00 PM EDT
Wednesday
April 18, 2018
The Beige Book
Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions
By Federal Reserve District
April 2018
Federal Reserve Districts
Minneapolis
Boston
Chicago
New York
Cleveland
Philadelphia
San Francisco
Kansas City
St. Louis
Richmond
Atlanta
Dallas
Alaska and Hawaii
are part of the
San Francisco District.
The System serves commonwealths and territories as follows: the New York Bank serves the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands; the San Francisco Bank serves American Samoa, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.
National Summary
Boston
1
A-1
First District
New York
B-1
Second District
Philadelphia
C-1
Third District
Cleveland
D-1
E-1
Fifth District
Atlanta
F-1
Sixth District
Chicago
G-1
Seventh District
St. Louis
H-1
Eighth District
Minneapolis
The Beige Book is a Federal Reserve System publication about current
economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. It characterizes regional economic conditions and prospects based on a variety
of mostly qualitative information, gathered directly from District
sources.
The qualitative nature of the Beige Book creates an opportunity to
characterize dynamics and identify emerging trends in the economy
that may not be readily apparent in the available economic data. Because this information is collected from a wide range of business and
community contacts through a variety of formal and informal methods,
the Beige Book can complement other forms of regional information
gathering.
How is the information collected?
Fourth District
Richmond
What is The Beige Book?
Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current
economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and
Branch directors, plus phone and in-person interviews with and online
questionnaires completed by businesses, community contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources.
How is the information used?
The anecdotal information collected in the Beige Book supplements the
data and analysis used by Federal Reserve economists and staff to
assess economic conditions in the Federal Reserve Districts. This
information enables comparison of economic conditions in different
parts of the country, which can be helpful for assessing the outlook for
the national economy. The Beige Book also serves as a regular summary of the Federal Reserve System’s efforts to listen to businesses
and community organizations.
I-1
Ninth District
Kansas City
J-1
Tenth District
Dallas
K-1
Eleventh District
San Francisco
Twelfth District
L-1
This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas based
on information collected on or before April 9, 2018. This document
summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal
Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal
Reserve officials.
National Summary
The Beige Book ■ April 2018
Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts in March
and early April. Outlooks remained positive, but contacts in various sectors including manufacturing, agriculture, and
transportation expressed concern about the newly imposed and/or proposed tariffs. Consumer spending rose in most
regions, with gains noted for nonauto retail sales and tourism, but mixed results for vehicle sales. Manufacturing activity
grew moderately, and demand for nonfinancial services was mostly solid. Residential construction and real estate
activity expanded further, although low home inventories continued to constrain sales in several Districts. Loan demand
increased, and commercial real estate activity and construction improved since the last report. Transportation services
activity expanded in over half of the reporting Districts, buoyed by increases in port traffic and/or air, rail and/or trucking
shipments. Agricultural conditions were little changed or worsened on net, in part due to persistent drought conditions.
Contacts in the energy sector cited a pickup in activity, except in the Richmond District, where coal production was flat
and natural gas production dipped slightly.
Employment and Wages
Widespread employment growth continued, with most Districts characterizing growth as modest to moderate. Labor
markets across the country remained tight, restraining job gains in some regions. Contacts continued to note difficulty
finding qualified candidates across a broad array of industries and skill levels. Reports of labor shortages over the
reporting period were most often cited in high-skill positions, including engineering, information technology, and health
care, as well as in construction and transportation. Businesses were responding to labor shortages in a variety of ways,
from raising pay to enhancing training to increasing their use of overtime and/or automation, among other strategies.
Upward wage pressures persisted but generally did not escalate; most Districts reported wage growth as only modest.
Prices
Prices increased across all Districts, generally at a moderate pace. There were widespread reports that steel prices
rose, sometimes dramatically, due to the new tariff. Prices for building materials continued to rise briskly, especially for
lumber, drywall, and concrete. Transportation costs also generally rose, with contacts citing higher fuel prices and
shortages of truck drivers as the primary causes. There were scattered reports of companies successfully passing
through price increases to customers in manufacturing, information technology, transportation, and construction. Businesses generally anticipate further price increases in the months ahead, particularly for steel and building materials.
Highlights by Federal Reserve District
Boston
New York
Revenues and sales were moderately higher than a year
earlier at almost all contacted retailers, manufacturers,
and software and IT services firms. Most commercial
real estate markets recorded positive results; residential
markets continued to see inventory shortages and rising
median prices. Business sector respondents’ outlooks
remained positive.
Economic activity grew at a modest pace, while labor
markets have remained tight. Input price pressures have
persisted, and selling price increases have picked up
somewhat. Housing markets and commercial real estate
markets have been steady to slightly softer.
1
National Summary
Philadelphia
Minneapolis
Economic activity continued to grow at a modest pace, in
particular for nonauto retail sales, tourism, nonfinancial
services, and nonresidential leasing. Manufacturing
accelerated to a moderate pace, while existing home
sales declined. Auto sales continued to decline, while
construction activity was flat. On balance, employment,
wages, and prices continued to grow modestly.
Ninth District economic activity grew moderately. Employment grew modestly even as hiring demand was
robust, due to tight labor supply. Wages grew moderately, as did prices overall, but price pressures at the wholesale level appeared to accelerate. While growth was
noted across sectors, activity in professional services,
energy, and mining was particularly strong.
Cleveland
Kansas City
The District economy expanded at a moderate pace.
Labor markets tightened, with wage pressures noted
broadly. Rising commodities prices and transportation
costs are pressuring goods producers. Stronger confidence in the economy supported rising demand in manufacturing, retail, and nonfinancial services. Construction
activity remained robust.
Overall economic activity in the Tenth District increased
moderately, with further growth expected in coming
months. Manufacturing, energy, and consumer spending
activity expanded at a moderate pace, while real estate
and business services activity grew modestly. Agricultural conditions remained weak, while District employment
and wages rose modestly.
Richmond
Dallas
The regional economy expanded at a moderate rate.
Ports and trucking firms continued to report robust activity but faced capacity constraints. As a result, manufacturers faced longer delivery times and, in some cases,
began stockpiling raw materials. Prices grew moderately,
overall, but steel and aluminum prices rose sharply and
were expected to rise further as a result of the tariffs.
Economic activity grew moderately, with a rebound in
retail sales and an acceleration in financial and nonfinancial services activity. Robust expansion in the energy
industry continued, while growth in manufacturing eased
somewhat. Hiring was solid despite a tight labor market,
and wage and price growth remained elevated. Numerous contacts expressed concern about new tariffs and
trade policy uncertainty, although outlooks overall were
still positive.
Atlanta
Economic activity increased modestly. Contacts continued to report difficulties filling positions in high-demand/
high-growth sectors. Many contacts noted steady but
modest wage pressures. Overall, nonlabor input costs
were subdued. Retail sales were stable. Manufacturers
noted an increase in new orders and production. District
bankers reported solid commercial and consumer loan
growth.
San Francisco
Economic activity in the Twelfth District continued to
expand at a moderate pace. Sales of retail goods were
down slightly, and growth in the consumer and business
services sectors remained solid. Conditions in the manufacturing sector picked up modestly. Activity in residential real estate markets remained strong, and conditions
in the commercial real estate sector were solid. Lending
activity ticked up.
Chicago
Growth in economic activity remained at a moderate
pace. Employment, consumer spending, and manufacturing production increased moderately, and business
spending and construction and real estate activity grew
slightly. Wages and prices increased modestly and
financial conditions improved slightly on balance. Income
prospects for the agricultural sector improved a bit.
St. Louis
Economic conditions continued to improve at a modest
pace. District bankers reported an increase in lending
activity driven by robust commercial and industrial loan
growth. Some steel and aluminum manufacturers announced plans to reopen facilities and call back workers.
District acreage for the four major crops for the year is
expected to be the same as in 2017.
2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Boston
The Beige Book ■ April 2018
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace in the First District, with almost all retail, manufacturing, and
software and information technology services respondents citing year-over-year increases in sales and revenues since
the last Beige Book. Commercial real estate contacts reported mostly positive results while residential real estate markets again saw sales declines in some areas accompanied by price increases, a combination contacts attributed to very
low inventories. With some exceptions, headcounts, wages, and prices were said to be rising modestly. Notwithstanding
a few manufacturers’ concerns about tariffs, outlooks remained generally positive.
Employment and Wages
prices were up about 2.6 percent over the year because
of higher labor and food costs. Manufacturing contacts
reported flat or slightly increasing prices for both the
goods they buy and the goods they sell. One manufacturer and one retailer said that shipping costs were rising
rapidly, which both attributed to a shortage of truck drivers. Two software and IT services firms were able to
pass through price increases without any backlash; an
online backup company increased prices on individuals
by as much as 20 percent.
Selective net hiring continued; contacts said wages were
rising, but not steeply. With one exception, responding
retailers are hiring or planning to hire new workers,
mainly due to business expansion. Some restaurants
and regional chambers of commerce have been proactive in trying to attract foreign workers to fill positions
during the summer tourist season. All but two manufacturing contacts reported flat employment; firms were
hiring, but largely for replacement. Nonetheless, several
respondents reported the labor market was extremely
tight; skilled workers continued to be in short supply and
one contact said that they were having trouble finding
“moderately skilled labor needed to manage the mostly
automated production equipment.” Software and IT
services contacts were planning on zero to 5 percent
increases in headcount during 2018 and expressed
concern with the tight labor market for technically skilled
workers such as engineers. Regarding wages, one
retailer said it had to pay higher starting wages in New
Hampshire, which has the region’s lowest unemployment
rate, than elsewhere in New England. Wages in the
region’s software sector increased 3 percent to 5 percent
across the board.
Retail and Tourism
Retailers consulted for this round reported that between
late February and early April, year-over-year comparable
-store sales results were positive, with gains ranging
from 1 percent to 5 percent. Most noted that multiple
severe winter storms in the northeast dampened sales—
one contact calculated that in the absence of weather
disruptions, this period’s results would have been 1.5
percentage points higher than the 2.5 percent reported.
A Massachusetts restaurant-industry contact reported
that business was up about 2.5 percent year-over-year.
Retail contacts regarded the outlook for 2018 as positive
based on currently high levels of consumer sentiment.
A contact in the Connecticut auto industry reported that
vehicle sales in the state were softer than the nation’s,
possibly because the state’s employment and population
growth have been weak. Nonetheless, given Connecticut’s generous incentives, electric vehicle sales have
continued to rise.
Prices
Many respondents cited modest to moderate price increases; a few noted steeper jumps. While other vendor
prices were reportedly steady, two retail contacts indicated that food prices were starting to increase. A Massachusetts restaurant-industry contact reported that menu
A-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
a year ago in response to demand from diverse users
including small manufacturers, while a Boston contact
said that demand for retail fulfillment centers had driven
up industrial rents in the Boston metro area.
Manufacturing and Related Services
Of seven firms contacted this cycle, only one reported a
year-over-year decline in sales and four reported higher
sales versus the same period a year ago. A furniture
maker said that sales were up 25 percent versus the
same period a year earlier, a major turnaround from
years of weak sales growth which they attribute to “an
improved emphasis on marketing.” One of the other
firms reporting higher sales, a textile and chemical manufacturer, indicated sales had fallen over the last twelve
weeks but were still up versus the period one year earlier. Two contacts reported flat sales versus a year earlier,
both for idiosyncratic reasons; for example, a producer of
frozen fish attributed their flat sales to Lent occurring
earlier than usual. A toy and game manufacturer reported lower sales due to the liquidation of a major toy retailer, which they see as a temporary setback. No contacts
revised their capital expenditure plans recently.
Nonetheless, contacts say that both industrial and office
construction have been restrained by the fact that building costs remain high relative to rents. Multifamily apartment construction was expected to slow moving forward
amid slower or flat rent growth in most areas. By contrast, condominium development activity increased in
both Boston and Portland. Investment sales activity was
stable at a slow to modest pace depending on location.
Two Boston contacts perceived small increases in capitalization rates for office properties that were seen as
consistent with increases in interest rates. Commercial
real estate contacts were optimistic on balance.
Residential Real Estate
Heading into spring, residential real estate results in the
First District continued to reflect sellers’ markets. Closed
sales for single family homes and for condos were up in
Maine, Vermont, and Rhode Island, while other areas
experienced moderate decreases. (Vermont reported
combined results for single family homes and condos. All
First District areas but Connecticut reported changes
from February 2017 to February 2018; a technical issue
caused December 2017 to be the most recent data from
Connecticut.)
In general, respondents were optimistic in their outlook.
However, two contacts brought up the proposed China
tariffs and said they represent a major risk. One was a
toy manufacturer who sources 75 percent of their production from China. The second said that punitive tariffs
on Chinese aluminum had already had a big effect: “Thin
gauge foil” is produced only in China and tariffs raised
the price three-fold; the contact argued that “these tariffs
are now killing high-paying American manufacturing jobs
and businesses.”
Because of ongoing inventory shortages, all reporting
areas but Vermont reported increases in median sale
prices for both single family homes and condos. A contact from Maine pointed out that negotiations over multiple offers may be fueling higher median sale prices:
“multiple-offer situations [are] happening on a regular
basis, especially on properties at $250,000 or less.”
Inventory dropped by double-digit percentages year-over
-year across all area markets. A contact in Massachusetts noted that “inventory is so low and demand so high
that many low- and moderate-income home buyers are
being left on the outside looking in.”
Software and Information Technology Services
The software and IT services sector continued to be
healthy in the first quarter. Revenues at contacted firms
grew 1 percent to 10 percent year-over-year in the first
quarter. Demand was strong for cloud-based solutions,
healthcare and industrial IT software, and enterprise
software for building apps. Contacts did not note significant changes in the costs they were facing aside from
labor. The overall outlook was positive.
Commercial Real Estate
Notwithstanding the prospect of rising interest rates,
contacts cited eager buyer populations and were optimistic about activity levels in coming months. ■
Reports from First District commercial real estate contacts were mixed, but positive on balance. Office leasing
demand remained strong in Boston, especially in the
urban core, leading to further increases in rents. Providence saw stable, healthy office leasing activity and
modest upward pressure on rents. Office leasing remained slow in the Portland area and weakened further
in Hartford. Industrial and warehouse space enjoyed
robust demand in most of the First District, with the
exception of Connecticut. A Portland contact reported
that industrial rents in that city increased 20 percent from
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.bostonfed.org/regional-economy
A-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
New York
The Beige Book ■ April 2018
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Second District continued to grow at a modest pace since the last report, and the labor market
has remained tight. Input price pressures have remained widespread but do not appear to have intensified further, while
selling prices have accelerated somewhat. Growth has picked up in the manufacturing sector but slowed in most distribution and service industries. Consumer spending was mixed but still generally sluggish in March—partially attributable
to unseasonably cold and wet weather—though tourism has shown signs of picking up. Housing markets have been
mixed, while commercial real estate markets have been steady to slightly softer. Construction activity has been steady
to somewhat slower. Finally, banks reported a pickup in loan demand and no change in delinquency rates.
Employment and Wages
Prices
The labor market has remained tight, and hiring activity
has been steady. One employment agency in upstate
New York noted a seasonal pickup in hiring. A major
New York City agency indicated that hiring has been
robust and that it is taking longer to fill jobs, particularly
those requiring technical skills. Businesses noted particular shortages of tech workers, truck drivers, and skilled
tradespeople. A few contacts cited difficulties in attracting young job-seekers away from major urban centers.
Input prices have continued to rise briskly but have not
accelerated further, according to contacts in most industry sectors. Still, businesses generally anticipated further
increases in the months ahead. A growing proportion of
service-sector contacts indicated that they were raising
their selling prices—most notably, wholesalers—but
manufacturers noted only modest hikes in their prices.
Among retailers, some contacts indicated that they have
held prices steady, while others reported price increases.
Prices for New York City hotel rooms and Broadway
theater tickets picked up noticeably in March. Looking
ahead, a growing proportion of businesses in manufacturing and wholesale trade said that they planned to
raise their prices, while most retailers did not foresee any
significant price hikes.
Business contacts in the finance and information sectors
reported fairly brisk hiring activity, while those in manufacturing, wholesale trade, education & health, and
leisure & hospitality indicated modest hiring, on net.
Retailers continued to report declining employment. Still,
firms in most service industries, including retail, said they
plan to expand hiring in the months ahead, while manufacturers have scaled back hiring plans.
Consumer Spending
Retail contacts reported that sales have picked up somewhat in recent weeks but are still considered lackluster,
reflecting unseasonably cold and wet weather. Retailers
in upstate New York indicated that sales have strengthened but remained fairly subdued, despite strong customer traffic. A major retail chain noted that sales advanced in March, running somewhat ahead of plan and
Businesses across all major service industries reported
ongoing wage pressures. Some contacts maintained that
wages had accelerated over the past year, though plans
to raise wages in the months ahead were little changed.
A New York City agency reports that a new law prohibiting potential employers from asking about a candidate’s
salary history has led candidates to demand higher pay.
B-1
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
up modestly from a year ago. Inventories were generally
reported to be at satisfactory levels, and retailers were
moderately optimistic about the near-term outlook.
picked up noticeably, except at the high end of the market.
Apartment rental markets have been mixed. Across New
York City, vacancy rates have been steady, as landlord
concessions have been increasingly prevalent, and
effective rents have slipped across the board. In northern
New Jersey and upstate New York, rents have continued
to rise moderately, and concessions have remained fairly
infrequent.
New vehicle sales in upstate New York were reported to
have weakened in February but there were some signs
of a rebound in March. Sales of used cars were steady
to up slightly. Vehicle inventories were said to be in fairly
good shape. Dealers continued to characterize retail and
wholesale credit conditions as favorable.
Consumer confidence in the Middle Atlantic states (NY,
NJ, PA) edged up to a new multi-year high in March.
Commercial real estate markets have been steady to
slightly softer. Office markets have been steady across
the District—while leasing activity has slowed somewhat,
vacancy rates and asking rents have been generally flat.
The retail market has shown further signs of slackening,
particularly in New York City, where vacancy rates have
risen. However, northern New Jersey’s retail vacancy
rate edged down. In upstate New York, retail vacancies
have been fairly stable. The industrial market has lost a
bit of momentum but remains fairly strong. Asking rents
have continued to rise at a fairly brisk pace throughout
the District. Industrial vacancy rates have edged up
across downstate New York but have continued to edge
down in northern New Jersey and upstate New York.
Manufacturing and Distribution
Manufacturers reported some acceleration in growth
since the last report. In contrast, wholesalers indicated a
pause in growth, and transportation firms reported some
decline in activity. Looking ahead, manufacturers have
become substantially less optimistic about the near-term
outlook, while contacts in wholesale distribution and
transportation have remained moderately optimistic.
Services
Reports from service-sector firms were mixed but generally pointed to little growth in activity. Contacts in professional & business services and leisure & hospitality
reported modest growth, while those in the information
and health & education sectors reported flat activity.
Service sector businesses have grown less optimistic
about the near-term outlook, most notably in the health &
education sector.
Multi-family construction activity has leveled off in northern New Jersey and across upstate New York, but has
slowed further in New York City. Office construction has
picked up somewhat in New York City and upstate New
York but has remained subdued elsewhere. Industrial
construction has been steady at a fairly sturdy level.
Tourism in New York City has picked up since the last
report. Hotels reported an increase in both revenues and
occupancy rates in March. Broadway theaters indicated
that business was sluggish in February and early March
but picked up noticeably in the second half of the month.
Banking and Finance
Small to medium size banks in the District reported
higher demand for residential mortgages, commercial
mortgages, and C&I loans, and steady demand for consumer loans. Banks reported lower loan spreads for
consumer loans and residential mortgages, and no
change in spreads across all other loan categories.
Bankers reported that both credit standards and delinquency rates were unchanged across all loan categories.
■
Real Estate and Construction
Housing markets across the District have been mixed
but, on balance, weaker in the latest reporting period.
Real estate contacts in upstate New York reported that
buyer traffic and sales activity have picked up in recent
weeks, but that lean inventories have held back sales
activity—especially at the lower end of the market. In
New York City, sales of condos and co-ops have receded noticeably, while prices have edged down. One industry contact attributes this to uncertainty about the
effects of the new federal tax law. However, housing
markets in the areas around New York City have seen
strong demand—while sales volume has been constrained by low and declining inventories, prices have
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.newyorkfed.org/data-and-statistics/regional-datacenter/index.html
B-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia
The Beige Book ■ April 2018
Summary of Economic Activity
Aggregate business activity in the Third District continued at a modest pace of growth during the current Beige Book
period. Manufacturing activity appeared to accelerate to a moderate pace, while nonauto retail sales, tourist activity,
nonfinancial services, and nonresidential leasing markets grew modestly. Contacts from new home construction and
nonresidential construction reported no change in activity. Auto sales continued to decline modestly, and existing home
sales fell moderately. On balance, employment, wages, and prices continued to grow modestly. Contacts from various
sectors noted that manufacturers may need to train workers and raise wages to attract and retain employees. The
growth outlook over the next six months remained positive, with over half of all firms anticipating increases in general
activity.
Employment and Wages
capacity. Another manufacturer stated, “It's time for
private enterprise to learn more about how to bring in
raw talent and train up to the requirements.”
Employment continued to grow at a modest pace during
the current Beige Book period. Manufacturing and nonmanufacturing firms reported ongoing net additions to
staff; average hours worked edged down over the period
for manufacturing firms but rose among nonmanufacturers.
Prices
While wage growth edged higher among some contacts,
on balance, the pace appeared to remain modest. The
share of nonmanufacturing firms reporting increases
broadened to over 40 percent. However, most banking
contacts continued to note few signs of wage inflation.
On balance, prices rose modestly, as most contacts
continued to report no change in prices paid and received. The percentage of manufacturing firms reporting
increases edged down from the prior period for prices
paid and for prices received for their own goods. Among
nonmanufacturing firms, slightly more contacts noted
increases for prices paid and received than during the
prior period.
Staffing firms continued to report steady demand for
temporary workers and direct hires in several local labor
markets. Wage pressures continued to be higher in
tighter markets, such as central Pennsylvania, where
one firm reported wages rising 4 percent over the year.
Builders continued to note rising prices for construction
materials as well as labor and noted concerns about a
potential trade war. Contacts cited double-digit price
hikes for lumber and drywall and expressed concern for
steel and reinforced concrete.
One staffing firm noted manufacturing clients’ reluctance
to raise wage rates. Among our contacts, manufacturers
were most likely to cite a lack of skilled labor; however,
one contact recently said that “higher pay and good
medical benefits help in recruiting and keeping people.”
That contact also noted that the firm is raising prices to
cover the cost and is running at 100 percent of practical
Looking ahead six months, manufacturing firms continued to anticipate higher prices, with nearly two-thirds
expecting increases in prices paid and over half expecting increases in prices received for their own goods. Of
the 22 manufacturing firms that offered general comments, seven mentioned impacts from recent tariffs or
proposed tariffs – most noted rising prices or anticipated
C-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
rising prices; just one firm anticipated greater demand.
firms anticipating increased activity slipped below 60
percent.
Manufacturing
Financial Services
On balance, manufacturing activity accelerated a bit to a
moderate pace of growth, with more firms reporting
increases in shipments and new orders.
Financial firms continued to report little change in overall
loan volumes (excluding credit cards). Volumes did grow
moderately in mortgages, commercial real estate loans,
and commercial and industrial lending. Home equity
lines, auto loans, and other consumer loans (not elsewhere classified) fell moderately.
The makers of paper products, chemicals, primary and
fabricated metal products, industrial machinery, and
electronic equipment tended to note gains in new orders
and shipments; no sectors noted declines. The growth
may be partially due to seasonal trends because the
same pattern was apparent during the same period last
year.
Credit card lending fell further as consumers continued
paying down holiday bills. Over the entire year, credit
card loan volumes and total lending in all the other categories combined have grown at a moderate pace.
Most manufacturing contacts continued to expect general activity to increase over the next six months; the
percentage of firms expecting future increases remained
between 55 percent and 60 percent. The percentage of
firms expecting increases in future capital expenditures
and future employment also held steady at just above 40
percent.
Banking contacts continued to describe solid ongoing
economic growth in most parts of the District, with high
consumer sentiment and business confidence. Overall,
contacts noted that credit standards remain unchanged
and credit quality remains very sound.
Real Estate and Construction
Homebuilders reported challenging weather conditions
for construction activity and mixed reports for new contracts, suggesting little overall change in activity. Singlefamily detached home construction continues to give
way to greater demand for townhomes, apartments, and
condos.
Consumer Spending
On balance, nonauto retail sales continued to grow
modestly. Retailers were generally more positive about
consumer demand, despite losing several shopping days
to winter storms, including the Monday after Easter.
Closings and consolidations of stores, brands, and malls
appear to be boosting sales for surviving retail locations.
According to Third District brokers, ongoing low inventories of houses for sale continued to constrain sales and
place upward pressure on prices. Sales of existing
homes fell moderately in February across most major
markets compared with the same period last year; brokers saw no signs of an improvement in March.
Auto dealers continued to report modest declines in year
-over-year sales this period. However, sales remain at
high levels, and dealers are optimistic that the year will
end with only a slight decline.
Tourism contacts continued to report modest growth
overall. A Delaware contact reported heavy traffic, busy
outlets, optimistic merchants, and several new hotels in
the planning stages. New Jersey contacts were less
optimistic regarding the local housing rental market in
southern beach communities. Atlantic City’s casino
revenues fell on a year-over-year basis for a third consecutive month, which dampens neighboring shore
activity.
Nonresidential real estate contacts reported no change
in the already high levels of construction activity and the
modest growth in leasing activity. Contractors report
sufficient work to carry through to year-end, but a few
new projects must break ground to maintain current
activity levels through 2019. Although demand varies by
sector and geography, rents tend to be rising in many
markets, especially for industrial/warehouse sectors
everywhere and for most sectors within the city of Philadelphia. ■
Nonfinancial Services
On balance, service-sector firms have continued to
report modest growth in general activity since the prior
Beige Book period. The percentage of firms reporting an
increase in sales edged down, while the percentage
reporting an increase in new orders rose. Expectations
of future growth remained high but the percentage of
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regionaleconomy
C-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Cleveland
The Beige Book ■ April 2018
Summary of Economic Activity
Business activity in the Fourth District expanded at a moderate pace as customer demand strengthened broadly and
confidence remained high. Firms’ demand for labor increased, but difficulty finding qualified candidates is limiting the
pace of hiring. In response, employers are raising wages to compete for workers, albeit only moderately. Rising commodity prices, particularly for steel, are pressuring goods producers. Meanwhile, services firms mostly noted stable input
prices. Goods producers and transportation companies were generally successful at raising their selling prices. Service
producers, however, tended to hold the line on their prices. Retailers reported continued growth in customer demand,
although auto dealers reported higher inventories of passenger cars. Housing and commercial real estate markets
remained strong, but builders are increasingly concerned about rising input costs. Manufacturing output trended higher.
Employment and Wages
price appreciation of steel products, in some cases at
double-digit rates. Independent of policy, prices for other
commodities have also increased. One producer of
industrial packaging noted that resin prices were still
elevated because of lingering impact from hurricanes in
2017. Professional services mostly reported little change
to their nonlabor input costs. Firms’ ability to pass
through price increases to their customers was little
changed from the previous survey period, though there
was considerable variation across industries. Transportation companies across the board were able to raise
freight rates in response to strong demand relative to
available capacity without pushback from customers. To
a lesser extent, manufacturers have been steadily raising their prices since the beginning of the year to pass
along their higher raw materials and transportation costs.
Construction firms are also finding success in passing
along their higher costs. In services, however, firms’
ability to pass through prices remains relatively soft.
Retailers held their prices steady.
District employers continued to hire at the same moderate pace as in the past few months. Contacts generally
reported stronger demand for their goods and services,
but worker turnover and difficulty finding qualified workers restrained net job gains. Notably, manufacturing
employment has been steadily trending higher since mid
-2017. Nonfinancial services firms cited strong confidence in the economy and rising freight volumes as
boosting business and demand for workers. Retail
showed the weakest gains in hiring. Replacing departed
workers was the most prevalent labor-related activity,
though several contacts in nearly all industries reported
creating new positions. Nonresidential builders overwhelmingly reported creating new field and office jobs.
Contacts continued to report difficulty finding qualified
candidates across a broad array of occupations. Nevertheless, no meaningful changes to wage pressures were
noted. In general, employers are raising wages to stay
competitive, but incremental increases are in keeping
with recent trends.
Consumer Spending
Prices
The retail sector reported improved customer demand
since the beginning of the year and on a year-over-year
basis. Reasons cited included improvements in product
quality, marketing, customer service, and business strat-
Upward pressure on input prices remained strong, particularly for commodities used by goods producers. According to contacts, recently imposed tariffs have accelerated
D-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
egies. Vendor and shelf prices were generally stable.
New motor vehicle unit sales across the District declined
about 2 percent during February when compared to
those of the same period a year ago. Year-to-date unit
sales fell 5 percent. One auto dealer reported that banks
are tightening credit, which could negatively impact
future sales activity. Dealer inventory was higher than
usual, which one contact attributed to lower incentives
and less demand for passenger cars.
and transportation) are among the biggest challenges
they are facing currently.
Financial Services
Growth in demand for bank products and services was
little changed, though contacts noted that conditions
remain favorable. Demand for commercial loans was
healthy, but some contacts worried that businesses
increasingly are relying on cash savings to fund capital
investments before looking for bank credit. Most contacts
seemed optimistic about the outlook for business investment in the coming quarter. On the consumer side,
demand for loans was flat or declining. Some contacts,
particularly in rural areas, reported that lack of inventory
and depreciation of the housing stock dampened growth
in home mortgages. Also, a lack of construction labor
was constraining new home construction, thereby constraining opportunities for mortgages. More broadly,
demand for consumer loans was flat, mostly because of
seasonal factors. Reports indicated that competition from
fintech firms and the nonbank sector continued to stifle
growth in consumer loans and, to a lesser extent, in
Manufacturing
Demand strengthened during the past two months in
most industries. Some contacts attributed this to seasonal fluctuations and a recovery from slow growth in previous months. Contacts in primary metals and electrical
and industrial products manufacturing noted that probusiness fiscal policy and corporate tax reform spurred
capital expenditures and drove up demand. One steel
manufacturer mentioned that customers are attempting
to stock up as prices rise because of increased demand
and tariffs on primary metals imports. Elsewhere, an
electronics manufacturer noted that high consumer
confidence encouraged demand for discretionary items,
a situation which is good for manufacturers of higher-end
products. The majority of contacts indicated that demand
was better than it was a year ago. A supplier to the
HVAC industry mentioned that they saw increased demand for finished products previously produced by
downstream OEMs because those companies were
struggling with capacity constraints and labor shortages.
deposits.
Nonfinancial Services
Activity in the nonfinancial services sector continued to
grow at a moderate-to-strong pace. Rising freight volumes across product segments were attributed primarily
to solid economic growth. There is concern about the
sustainability of increasing volume because of newly
enacted tariffs and potential outcomes from NAFTA
negotiations. Railroad contacts attributed some of their
volume growth to ongoing capacity constraints in the
trucking industry. Within the professional services sector,
contacts from engineering, software development, and
accounting firms reported the strongest growth, which
they said was due to strong confidence in the overall
economy. One accounting firm noted that its work in
mergers and acquisitions was the strongest that it has
been in the past 10 years. ■
Real Estate and Construction
New-home builders reported that customer demand was
either steady or improving and that current trends are
expected to continue into the spring selling season. That
said, builders are becoming concerned that rising construction costs (materials and labor) are driving up new
home prices and that this may dampen buyer enthusiasm during the prime selling season. Construction costs
are expected to increase through the summer. Year-todate unit sales through February of new and existing
single-family homes declined 2 percent compared to
those of a year earlier. The average sales price rose
more than 7 percent. Buying patterns and inventory
levels remained steady.
Among nonresidential construction firms, demand generally improved during the survey period and on a yearover-year basis thanks to more opportunities for projects
emerging, especially as the weather improves. Increases
in backlogs, inquiries, and bidding were observed. Current levels of activity are expected to continue into the
summer months. Almost all nonresidential contractors
reported that rising construction costs (materials, labor,
D-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Richmond
The Beige Book ■ April 2018
Summary of Economic Activity
Since our previous report, the Fifth District economy grew moderately. Manufacturers provided mixed accounts of business conditions with some noting continued challenges of rising input prices and shipping delays. Port activity remained
strong, overall, with particularly high export growth coming out of South Carolina. Trucking firms continued to see robust
demand and several companies were able to hire new drivers and increase capacity. Retailers reported weaker demand
in recent weeks and tourist activity varied as atypical weather resulted in travel disruptions and lower hotel occupancies
in some areas. Residential real estate sales picked up modestly, particularly for lower-priced homes. Meanwhile, commercial real estate leasing activity rose moderately, led by increased demand for office space. Nonfinancial services saw
a moderate rise in demand, overall. Labor demand strengthened moderately in recent weeks while wage pressures
remained modest. Prices grew moderately, on balance; however, steel and aluminum prices rose sharply and were expected to rise further as a result of recently-imposed tariffs.
Employment and Wages
Manufacturing
Labor demand continued to strengthen moderately in
recent weeks. Compared to the previous report, employment agencies noted no change in the level of new job
openings; however, openings remained at strong levels.
Executives reported difficulty filling positions for accounting and finance professionals, IT professionals,
engineers, health care providers, and construction workers. Wage pressures reportedly rose for residential
builders, professional services workers, manufacturers,
and IT professionals. Wage increases remained modest, overall.
Manufacturing business conditions were mixed in recent
weeks. A Virginia food manufacturer reported an improvement in business activity with particularly strong
Easter sales. A North Carolina machine parts company
saw a rise in orders in March after a slow start to the
year. Meanwhile, a Virginia window and door manufacturer reported softer demand due to adverse weather
conditions. Manufacturers generally struggled with rising
input prices and slow delivery times. In fact, a West
Virginia rubber manufacturer said he started to store
more raw materials on site since delivery times have
more than doubled, on average. Similarly, a Virginia
display case manufacturer reported stockpiling steel in
anticipation of higher prices resulting from the new tariffs.
Prices
Prices grew moderately, on balance, since our previous
report. According to our most recent surveys, manufacturers’ input costs grew at a moderate rate and continued to outpace growth in selling prices. Steel and aluminum prices rose sharply and were expected to rise
further as a result of recently-imposed tariffs. Housing
and construction material prices, such as those for
appliances, cabinetry, carpet, drywall, lumber, and
concrete were also on the rise. Service sector prices
grew at a modest rate, overall. Contacts reported that
coal and natural gas prices declined slightly in recent
weeks. Meanwhile, oil and petroleum-based product
prices grew moderately.
Ports and Transportation
Ports saw fairly strong activity in the past several weeks,
with volumes of loaded containers rising, particularly for
exports. A South Carolina airport saw growth in both
passenger and cargo traffic, and continued to see a
balance of imports and exports after a long period of
exports lagging. A South Carolina port saw a slight softening of imports compared to last year but experienced
a drastic increase in exports. A Maryland port saw strong
growth in imports and exports compared to last year with
import growth slightly outpacing export growth. Several
E-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
ports noted some uncertainty about what effects the
steel tariffs might have on trade.
Commercial real estate leasing activity rose moderately
in recent weeks as brokers reported increased demand
in office leasing, while the industrial and retail markets
remained active. Vacancy rates were mostly unchanged,
although some agents reported modest increases in
office vacancy rates due to new supply coming on line.
Rental rates were stable to increasing modestly across
the District. On the commercial sales side, brokers reported modest increases in prices and sales. Commercial construction varied across the District, but most
contacts noted that new construction remained limited.
Trucking companies continued see robust growth, with
many facing more freight than they could handle. However, several companies had more success hiring drivers
in the past few weeks, which helped to increase their
capacity. Even with this capacity boost, firms had to turn
away business because they were unable to meet demand. Several trucking firms were also concerned about
rising equipment and repair costs potentially leading to a
shortage of trucks that could add to capacity constraints.
Banking and Finance
Retail, Travel, and Tourism
On the whole, loan demand increased modestly since
our previous report. Residential mortgage demand varied by location but was generally described as stable to
increasing modestly. Interest rates inched higher in
recent weeks, while deposits were up modestly, overall.
On the commercial side, loan demand varied, with a
notable uptick reported in the greater Raleigh and Asheville, North Carolina areas. Credit quality remained
strong while credit standards were generally unchanged.
Bankers continued to report strong competition among
banks, credit unions, and financial technology firms.
Many retailers reported weak demand in recent weeks. A
Virginia auto dealer attributed low sales to reduced customer traffic and low credit scores among potential buyers and said that the lower sales combined with increasing prices from manufacturers had hurt profits. A West
Virginia sporting goods retailer reported that retail sales
continued to fall as some consumers were increasingly
buying directly from manufacturers; however, the wholesale sales continued to keep the business afloat. On a
positive note, several furniture and clothing retailers saw
a slight uptick in sales, and a West Virginia appliance
retailer reported strong business activity.
Nonfinancial Services
On balance, nonfinancial services demand picked up
moderately since our previous report. The strongest
demand was reported for administrative services and
health care services. Comments from professional and
business services firms were mostly positive; however,
some firms noted a decline in activity due to reductions
in federal spending. Lastly, a natural gas utility firm reported softer demand as usage declined due to warmer
weather.
Tourist activity was mixed in recent weeks, due in part to
adverse weather conditions. A Virginia ski resort was
unable to make up losses after temporarily closing for
unusually warm weather. At the same time, the
nor’easter storms caused flight cancellations and shutdowns in Washington, D.C., leaving hotels in the area
with low occupancy rates. Hotels in Charleston, South
Carolina also had low occupancy rates, but attributed
them to increased supply as demand for rooms actually
rose in the area. Meanwhile, some North Carolina restaurants and hotels reported strong demand despite
difficult travel conditions created by winter storms. Hotels
and tourist attractions around the District were optimistic
that business would improve along with the weather in
the coming weeks.
Agriculture and Natural Resources
A farmer in South Carolina saw more acreage being
used to grow cotton as a result of higher export selling
prices. He also said that more agricultural land was
being converted to solar farms. Coal production was little
changed in recent weeks while natural gas production
declined slightly. ■
Real Estate and Construction
Residential real estate sales increased modestly compared to the previous report. Agents reported steady
buyer traffic in recent weeks, while homes in the
$200,000 – $400,000 price range sold quickly with multiple offers. Overall, inventory levels remained low and in
some regions were below last year’s levels. Home prices
rose modestly, while average days on the market were
generally unchanged. New home construction and sales
increased slightly across the District.
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.richmondfed.org/research/regional_economy
E-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Atlanta
The Beige Book ■ April 2018
Summary of Economic Activity
Sixth District business contacts indicated that economic conditions continued to improve modestly from the previous
report. The majority of contacts were relatively optimistic with expectations for continued modest growth over the next
three to six months. The labor market remained tight and overall wage growth was modest. Most firms noted that most
nonlabor input cost pressures were muted, though some noted increases related to the threat of tariffs. Retail sales
remained stable since the previous report while automotive dealers remarked that demand for vehicles had weakened.
Hospitality contacts noted solid domestic activity. Residential real estate builders and brokers indicated that home sales
were flat to slightly down. New home construction increased slightly since the previous report. On balance, commercial
real estate conditions continued to improve. Manufacturers cited increases in new orders and production.
Employment and Wages
rhetoric increased. The Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation
Expectations survey showed year-over-year unit costs
were up 1.9 percent in March. Looking ahead, survey
respondents indicated that they expect unit costs to rise
2.1 percent over the next twelve months.
District contacts continued to report difficulties filling
positions in high-demand/high-growth sectors, particularly in the information technology, long-haul transportation,
construction, and medical fields. Several contacts from
the transportation sector reported elevated driver turnover. In response to labor shortages, firms continued to
enhance training efforts for less-experienced candidates,
expand partnerships with workforce development entities
and community colleges, and broaden their geographical
search for candidates.
Consumer Spending and Tourism
District retailers continued to report steady sales levels
during this reporting period, on net. Home improvement
retailers noted an increase in sales levels during the first
two months of the year; automotive dealers reported a
decline in demand for February compared to the same
time last year.
Overall, reports of wage growth were mixed across the
District. Many contacts noted steady but modest wage
growth; however, geographies and sectors experiencing
high growth continued to report large wage increases in
order to attract and retain workers. In particular, contacts
from the transportation sector reported that they were
compelled to provide drivers with sizeable bonuses and
wage increases in an attempt to thwart turnover. Employers continued to share that they were increasing the
proportion of employee compensation that is not permanent and can be withdrawn, if needed (e.g., bonuses,
incentives, etc.).
Travel and tourism contacts reported strong domestic
travel while group and convention travel softened since
the last report. Demand for hotel rooms accelerated
even though occupancy rates declined due to an increase in the number of rooms coming on line and a pick
-up in online lodging services. Sentiment from travel and
tourism contacts remains optimistic heading into spring.
Construction and Real Estate
Reports from District residential real estate contacts
signaled continued modest growth. Builders reported flat
to slightly higher construction activity in February compared to one year earlier. Builders and brokers indicated
that home sales activity was flat to slightly down from the
year-ago level. Many brokers reported mixed buyer
traffic, while builders characterized traffic as unchanged
Prices
Overall, businesses continued to report relatively benign
input-cost pressures. However, some contacts noted
rising prices for transportation, as well as steel as tariff
F-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
from the previous report. Builders reported that inventory
levels remained flat whereas brokers indicated lower
levels compared to one year ago. Builders and brokers
continued to note that home prices increased in February. Looking ahead, residential real estate contacts
expect home sales activity to hold steady or increase
slightly over the next three months relative to the yearago level, with many builders expecting construction
activity to remain unchanged or increase slightly.
exports of LNG out of Louisiana’s Sabine Pass liquefaction terminal. In petrochemical markets, contacts shared
that supplies remained tight and backlogs continued to
build after freezing conditions across the Gulf Coast
temporarily reduced or ceased operations at several
plants, and in some cases, caused power outages and
infrastructure damage. Elevated Mississippi River water
levels prevented many petrochemical plants from receiving input products needed to produce chemicals for
domestic and global use, which also contributed to growing backlogs and imports.
District commercial real estate contacts cited continued
improvement in general economic conditions and the
availability of capital as factors supporting favorable
commercial real estate demand and pricing. However,
contacts continued to caution that the rate of improvement varied by metropolitan area, submarket, and property type. Contacts continued to report healthy activity
pipelines. The outlook among commercial contacts for
nonresidential and multifamily construction remained
positive, with the majority anticipating activity to match or
exceed the current level.
Agriculture
Agriculture conditions across the District were mixed.
Drought conditions improved in much of the District
although light frosts in March affected some crops. Agricultural exporters indicated that the weaker dollar was
having a favorable impact. On a year-over-year basis,
prices paid to farmers in February were up for rice, beef,
broilers, and eggs and down for corn, cotton, and soybeans. ■
Manufacturing
Manufacturing contacts indicated that overall business
activity remained strong since the last reporting period.
New orders and production levels rose, and most firms
indicated they were adding to their payrolls. Contacts
suggested that prices for their finished products were
holding steady, while some input costs continued to
increase. Most firms indicated that they are optimistic
about the near term.
Transportation
Transportation contacts continued to note varying levels
of activity over the reporting period. Railroads again cited
decreases in year-to-date total traffic, albeit at a slower
rate of decline than described in the previous report.
Trucking contacts reported increases in freight volume,
but driver shortages continued to constrain capacity.
District ports indicated further strength in shipments of
containers and breakbulk cargo, and air cargo contacts
noted year-over-year increases in freight tonnage.
Banking and Finance
District bankers continued to report solid commercial and
consumer loan growth. Contacts noted that lending rates
have coalesced around a narrow range but pricing for
consumer lending is increasing. Banking contacts also
noted that commercial acquisitions slowed due to difficulties over pricing of the targets.
Energy
Sentiment among energy contacts was mostly positive
as demand picked up. Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) continued to intensify, resulting in rising
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.frbatlanta.org/economy-matters/regional-economics
F-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago
The Beige Book ■ April 2018
Summary of Economic Activity
Growth in economic activity in the Seventh District continued at a moderate pace in late February and March and contacts expected growth to continue at that pace over the next 6 to 12 months. Employment, consumer spending, and
manufacturing production increased moderately, and business spending and construction and real estate activity grew
slightly. Wages and prices increased modestly and financial conditions improved slightly on balance. Income prospects
for the agricultural sector improved a bit, in spite of concerns about the impact of Chinese tariffs.
and freight costs. Manufacturers facing higher steel and
aluminum costs because of the new tariffs expected to
pass on about half of the increased costs to their customers on average.
Employment and Wages
Employment growth continued at a moderate pace over
the reporting period and contacts expected gains to
continue at that rate over the next 6 to 12 months. Hiring
was focused on professional and technical, production,
and sales workers. As they have for some time, contacts
indicated that the labor market was tight and reported
difficulties filling positions at all skill levels. A number of
manufacturers reported that because of the difficulty in
finding production workers, they were being more picky
about which orders to fill and investing more in automation. One contact reported increasing production at their
China plant because they couldn’t find workers for their
US operation. Wage growth remained modest overall,
though more contacts reported pay increases for administrative workers. In spite of the modest overall growth, a
number of contacts (particularly in manufacturing) noted
that wage growth had picked up compared to six months
ago, especially for entry-level workers. Most firms reported increased benefits costs.
Consumer Spending
Consumer spending increased moderately over the
reporting period. Nonauto retail sales rose modestly, with
gains reported in the home furnishings, building materials, home improvement, and general merchandise segments. Contacts continued to report strong e-commerce
growth. New light vehicle sales increased considerably,
helped by stronger incentives, particularly for leases.
One contact called the incentives for some vehicles “a
little irrational.” Contacts generally expected the sales
pace to slow in the coming months. Used vehicle sales
also increased considerably. The sales mix of new light
vehicles again shifted toward light trucks.
Business Spending
Business spending increased modestly in late February
and March. Retail and manufacturing contacts indicated
that inventories were generally at comfortable levels.
Capital spending increased modestly, and contacts
expected growth to continue at that pace over the next 6
to 12 months. Outlays were primarily for replacing industrial and IT equipment and for renovating structures. A
number of manufacturing contacts reported that lead
times for purchasing new equipment were notably longer
Prices
Overall, prices rose modestly in late February and
March, and contacts expected prices to continue to
increase at that rate over the next 6 to 12 months. Retail
prices again increased slightly overall, though grocery
prices were flat. Producer prices rose modestly, reflecting in part the pass-through of higher labor, materials,
G-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
than six months ago. Demand for commercial and industrial energy increased modestly and transportation demand increased moderately.
little change in lending standards or loan quality. Consumer loan demand also increased modestly, with contacts reporting rising demand for auto loans, lines of
credit, and loans secured by durable goods. Residential
mortgage activity picked up, and a contact in northern
Indiana reported a notable increase in the number of
mortgages for new home construction. Consumer loan
quality and lending standards were little changed.
Construction and Real Estate
Construction and real estate activity increased modestly
over the reporting period. Residential construction rose
modestly, led by expanded suburban single-family building. Contacts again reported that rising labor and materials costs were squeezing margins. Overall, home sales
were down slightly as low inventories of starter homes
continued to hold back sales. Home prices rose modestly overall, with notable increases in the starter home
segment and no change in prices for higher-end homes.
Nonresidential construction increased modestly, with
growth spread across sectors. That said, contacts expected growth to pick up over the next 6 to 12 months
because vacancy rates for office and industrial space are
low. Commercial real estate activity increased slightly
from an already strong level, and contacts expected
activity to increase slightly further over the next 6 to 12
months. Numerous contacts characterized the commercial real estate environment as “very good” or
“exuberant.” Commercial rents were flat overall. And
while there was a slight decline in vacancy rates, the
availability of sublease space increased a bit.
Agriculture
Income prospects for the agricultural sector improved a
bit during the reporting period, in spite of concerns about
the impact of Chinese tariffs. Corn and soybean prices
moved higher (helped by weather concerns in Argentina)
and allowed farmers to lock in modest profits for at least
a portion of their crops this year. Moisture profiles for
most of the District improved, though drought persisted
in a portion of Iowa. Prospects for livestock operations
dimmed some as cattle and hog prices declined and milk
prices stayed low. Egg prices and prices for some dairy
products did move up. Agricultural lenders continued to
report a slowly rising number of financially stressed crop
and livestock borrowers. Cash rents for cropland were
lower than a year ago, but land values were stable overall. ■
Manufacturing
Growth in manufacturing production continued at a solid
rate in late February and March. Steel production increased at a moderate pace, primarily in response to
steady end-user demand. Steel imports spiked in anticipation of the 25% tariff imposed in late March. Demand
for heavy machinery increased strongly, as end-user
demand expanded and dealers rebuilt inventories. Demand for heavy trucks remained at a strong level. Order
books for specialty metals manufacturers increased
modestly: growth was spread across a wide variety of
sectors, with particularly strong growth from the oil and
gas sector. Manufacturers of construction materials
continued to report slow but steady increases in shipments, in line with the pace of improvement in construction. Auto production was flat, but remained at a solid
level.
Banking and Finance
Financial conditions improved slightly over the reporting
period. Financial market participants noted higher volatility compared to the beginning of the year and rising
short-term interest rates. Business loan demand increased modestly, led by growth in the small business
segment. One contact noted that manufacturers throughout the District were increasing their credit line utilization.
While competition remained strong, contacts reported
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
chicagofed.org/cfsbc
G-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis
The Beige Book ■ April 2018
Summary of Economic Activity
Reports from contacts suggest economic conditions have continued to improve at a modest pace since our previous
report. Labor market conditions remain tight: Employment grew slightly and wage growth was modest. Overall inflation
strengthened slightly, held down by a slight decline in commodity prices. Reports on consumer spending were generally
positive. Residential real estate activity improved modestly while construction activity was little changed. District banks
reported increased lending activity driven by robust growth in commercial and industrial loans. Agriculture and natural
resources conditions have remained generally unchanged since the previous report.
Midwest led to a significant increase in barge freight
rates along the Mississippi River.
Employment and Wages
Anecdotal evidence suggests employment has grown
slightly since the previous report. There were reports of
modest increases in manufacturing employment in Arkansas and Missouri as well as a modest increase in
small business employment in Missouri. Contacts continued to report difficulties finding qualified employees. For
example, a construction contact in Little Rock reported
difficulties filling skilled positions, and a used-auto retailer reported trouble hiring mechanics and technicians.
Several organizations in Little Rock have undertaken
initiatives to create training opportunities to address the
skills gap.
After modest to moderate increases through the first two
months of the year, commodity prices have declined
slightly since the previous report. Wheat, sorghum, corn,
and soybean prices decreased moderately, and coal,
cotton, and rice prices were unchanged.
Consumer Spending
Reports from general retailers, auto dealers, and hoteliers indicate that consumer spending has modestly increased since our previous report. Real sales tax collections decreased in Missouri relative to a year ago but
increased in Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Consumer confidence surveys continued to show improvements in West Tennessee, although households expect
no change in their level of spending over the next few
months. Reports from Little Rock auto dealers were
mixed. Hospitality contacts in St. Louis reported that
sales increased year-over-year and that their outlook
remains positive over the next few months.
Wages have increased modestly since the previous
report. Reports from contacts in Little Rock indicate that
wages have risen for workers such as truck drivers,
warehouse workers, and skilled mechanics. One usedauto retailer noted plans to use some of their tax savings
to increase compensation for some employees.
Prices
Price pressures have increased slightly since the previous report. Building materials prices rose. A contact in
northwest Arkansas reported an increase in construction
costs, and steel and scrap metal prices increased moderately throughout the District. Flooding throughout the
Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity has increased modestly since our
previous report. Overall manufacturing activity was
stronger than one month earlier in both Arkansas and
Missouri, and the pace of expansion increased in both
H-1
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
states. Several companies in the District reported facility
expansion and hiring plans, including firms that produce
auto parts and aviation equipment. In addition, steel and
aluminum manufacturers announced plans to reopen
facilities and call back workers. Contacts at economic
development agencies in central Arkansas reported
growing interest from manufacturing firms looking for
locations to build new facilities.
Agriculture and Natural Resources
District agriculture conditions were unchanged from the
previous reporting period and the same as a year earlier.
District corn acreage for 2018 is expected to decrease 2
percent from last year. Planned soybean acreage is
about the same as 2017 acreage. Cotton and rice acreages are expected to increase 2 percent and 16 percent,
respectively, due to expectations of improved profitability. Overall, District acreage for the four major crops is
expected to be roughly the same as in 2017.
Nonfinancial Services
Activity in the service sector has been mostly unchanged
since the previous report. The number of vacancies
posted by firms for non-financial services occupations in
March remained flat since the prior month, with the exception of St. Louis area vacancies, which moderately
declined. In Arkansas, river barge traffic was much lower
in the beginning of 2018 compared with a year ago,
while air passenger volume remained unchanged.
Natural resource extraction conditions improved modestly from January to February, with seasonally adjusted
coal production increasing 9 percent. However, February
production was down 6 percent from the same month
last year. ■
Real Estate and Construction
Residential real estate activity has improved modestly
since the previous report. Seasonally adjusted home
sales increased modestly in February across the District’s four major MSAs. Local contacts reported that
demand remains strong but shortages in inventory continue to hinder sales.
Residential construction activity remained unchanged.
February permit activity was flat within District MSAs.
Local contacts continued to report that a shortage of
labor is limiting new construction.
Commercial construction activity was flat. February
nonresidential construction starts remained unchanged
relative to the previous month, although multifamily
permits declined moderately. Little Rock construction
contacts reported healthy levels of commercial construction activity across most sectors and expect this trend to
continue through the second quarter of 2018.
Banking and Finance
Banking conditions in the District strengthened at a
moderate pace relative to the previous reporting period.
According to reports from District bankers, overall loan
volume has accelerated since our previous report, increasing by 9 percent on a year-over-year basis in the
first quarter of 2018, up from 7 percent growth for the
previous quarter. Stronger loan growth was driven by
robust activity in commercial and industrial lending,
where loan volumes grew by 17 percent relative to yearago levels. In addition, outstanding loans for commercial
real estate increased by 11 percent, more than double
the national rate. Meanwhile, mortgage lending slowed
slightly as loan volumes rose by 3 percent, down from 4
percent the prior quarter.
For more information about District economic conditions, visit:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/regecon/
H-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Minneapolis
The Beige Book ■ April 2018
Summary of Economic Activity
The Ninth District saw moderate economic growth since the last report. Employment increased modestly, constrained by
a tight labor supply. Wage and price pressures were moderate. Growth was noted in consumer spending, tourism,
services, commercial construction, commercial real estate, manufacturing, energy, and mining. Home construction was
generally flat, while commercial real estate was mixed and residential real estate was slow. Agricultural conditions were
stable at low levels.
Employment and Wages
Wage pressures were moderate since the last report. A
survey of Minnesota businesses found that wage
increases coalesced a little below 3 percent. There were
signs of stronger increases for some workers. Union
construction workers in Minnesota were seeing wage
increases of 3 percent to 4 percent. Montana high tech
firms expected wages to increase by 5 percent in 2018.
Wage increases in the public sector were weaker. In
South Dakota, state workers received an increase of 1.2
percent, while 30,000 state workers in Minnesota
received a 2 percent increase this year, though roughly
half were also eligible for other increases.
Despite healthy labor demand, employment grew
modestly since the last report, muted by tight labor
supply. A survey of large Minnesota businesses found
that about half were hiring to increase total head counts.
Three other surveys also showed healthy hiring
sentiment in District states. Several job-tracking
databases showed generally strong labor demand.
February job ads in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and
North Dakota were higher compared with a year earlier.
In Minnesota, figures released at the end of March
showed job vacancies at an all-time high, increasing 16
percent over a year earlier. However, in South Dakota,
both new and total advertised jobs declined in February
relative to a year earlier. Tight labor markets were
evident across the District. Initial and total
unemployment insurance claims continued a downward
trend through mid-March compared with last year. A
western Montana staffing contact said labor orders were
“up in all of our markets. Our biggest struggle is lack of
candidates.” A Minneapolis-St. Paul workforce contact
said more companies are turning to job fairs and local
workforce centers for help, but “attendance has been
down at hiring events,” and foot traffic at job centers has
been slow. Participants in dislocated-worker programs
“are getting jobs so much faster than in the past. Many
are exiting the program in two or three months.”
Prices
Price pressures were moderate overall since the last
report, but wholesale prices increased more briskly.
Multiple contacts reported dramatic increases in the
prices for steel products, partly attributable to recently
announced tariffs; a manufacturer of tractor trailers said
they “can't raise prices as fast as material costs.” Retail
fuel prices in most District states as of late March were
slightly higher than in the previous reporting period, while
prices for heating oil and propane in late March—their
usual seasonal peak—saw double-digit percentage
increases relative to a year earlier. Prices for
construction materials continued to increase briskly.
I-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Consumer Spending and Tourism
a major constraint. However, multi-family construction
was strong in multiple District markets.
Consumer spending grew moderately since the last
report. Gross sales in South Dakota saw a notable
increase in the first two months of the year, and
Wisconsin also saw a rise in gross sales. Retail closures
continued, including nine stores across the District from
a single chain. But they appeared to be due to shifts in
consumer buying habits rather than soft overall demand,
as retail vacancy rates remained healthy overall. A
convenience store chain announced plans to open 11
new locations in Minnesota this year, though that
expansion was smaller than in years past. Gaming
revenues in Deadwood, S.D., to date have been flat
compared with the same period a year earlier, but hotel
occupancy rates improved. After a boom related to the
Super Bowl, hotel occupancy rates and average room
revenue in Minneapolis-St. Paul returned to more normal
levels, which were softening due to a major expansion of
new space. Passenger boardings at Minneapolis-St.
Paul International Airport for the first two months of 2018
were 2 percent higher than the same period in 2017, and
cargo volumes rose more than 6 percent.
Commercial real estate sales grew modestly since the
last report. Vacancy rates continued to remain low and
stable in many real estate sectors across the District.
However, the multifamily vacancy rate in Sioux Falls
rose to its highest level in several years after a persistent
expansion of supply. The city has also seen a number of
restaurant and big-box store closures, pushing retail
vacancies higher. Given the influx of new multifamily
units, sources expected vacancy rates in Minneapolis-St.
Paul to start rising. Residential real estate sales were
slow, especially relative to demand, due to low
inventories of homes for sale. Though most regions in
the District have seen year-over-year sales remain flat or
fall over the first two months of the year, tight inventories
have persistently pushed median prices higher across
the District.
Manufacturing
District manufacturing increased moderately since the
last report. An index of manufacturing conditions
indicated increased activity in March compared with a
month earlier in Minnesota and South Dakota; North
Dakota fell to a level indicating contraction. Several
contacts in the metal-fabricating industry reported strong
demand. A producer of precast concrete products said
demand had increased capital investment at their firm
and across the industry. A maker of shipping and
storage pallets also said demand increased notably.
Several firms around the District were expanding
facilities, including a construction equipment producer in
North Dakota and a custom manufacturer in Minnesota.
In contrast, an electrical equipment producer closed a
plant in Wisconsin.
Services
Activity in the professional services industry increased
briskly since the last report. An electronic components
distributor was preparing for a $300 million expansion.
Demand for information technology services was strong,
according to sources. A civil engineering contact in
Montana reported that demand for work was up briskly.
A distributor of office products described recent sales as
strong. Contacts in transportation generally described
freight demand as steady, though some trucking firms
were reporting substantial increases in business .
Construction and Real Estate
Commercial construction saw moderate growth since the
last report. An industry database showed continued
growth in new projects and total active projects through
mid-March compared with the same period a year
earlier. Most industry contacts were also upbeat. A
Minnesota contact said firms were reporting a “pretty
strong” pipeline for 2018, fueled by robust activity in K-12
school and multifamily housing construction. An Upper
Peninsula source said overall activity there was “very
strong,” with a number of large energy, healthcare, and
infrastructure projects. At the same time, construction
has slowed recently from very high levels in Sioux Falls,
S.D. Residential construction in the single-family market
was generally flat across the District. Numerous sources
noted that high and rising labor and materials costs were
Agriculture, Energy, and Natural Resources
District agricultural conditions were stable at low levels.
Though drought conditions abated slightly since the last
report, most of the Dakotas and portions of Montana
remained dry heading into the spring planting season.
Activity in the energy and mining sectors increased. Oil
and gas exploration activity was up; the drilling rig count
in the District as of late March increased about 10
percent from the last reporting period. A large solar
energy development was proposed in South Dakota and
a wind farm in North Dakota was expanding. Contacts at
nonferrous mines in Montana said the market for metals
was strong, with one noting that they could not produce
enough molybdenum to meet demand. ■
I-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Kansas City
The Beige Book ■ April 2018
Summary of Economic Activity
Overall economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in March, although more modest growth was reported across a
few District sectors. Consumer spending, energy, and manufacturing activity increased at a moderate pace, while District real estate and business services firms reported a modest pace of growth. Bankers reported a moderate increase in
overall loan demand, steady deposit levels, and a modest increase in loan quality. Agricultural conditions remained
weak, as drought conditions emerged and production expectations declined. Employment and employee hours increased in most sectors, and contacts reported modest wage growth with moderate increases expected in coming
months. Input prices were up moderately compared to the previous survey period, while selling prices rose modestly.
Employment and Wages
expected in the coming months. Manufacturers noted a
modest increase in prices for finished goods, while raw
material costs rose moderately. Manufacturers expected
moderate growth in both finished goods and raw material
prices over the next few months.
Employment and employee hours across the District
continued to rise modestly in March, and respondents
expected continued modest increases moving forward.
Contacts in all sectors reported steady-to-increasing
employment, with the exception of those in the transportation sector who noted a moderate decline. Employment
in all sectors was expected to grow in the months ahead.
Employee hours declined in the auto sales and transportation sectors, but rose in all other reporting industries.
Respondents noted a shortage of commercial drivers,
skilled technicians, and service workers.
Consumer Spending
Consumer spending grew moderately in March, and
firms expected strong growth in coming months. Retail
sales increased robustly compared to the previous survey period, and remained well above year-ago levels.
Several retailers noted an increase in sales for appliances and lower priced items, while outdoor and higherpriced products sold poorly. Retail contacts anticipated
sales to rise considerably in the next few months, and
inventory levels were expected to increase moderately.
Auto sales rose modestly after many months of decline
and were equal to year-ago levels. Dealer contacts
anticipated a strong pickup in sales for the months
ahead, and inventory levels were expected to increase
considerably. Restaurant sales declined moderately and
were well below year-ago levels. However, contacts
expected a strong rebound in activity heading forward.
District tourism activity fell slightly, but contacts expected
activity to increase moderately heading into the summer
months.
Contacts in most sectors reported modest wage growth
and expectations were for moderate wage growth moving forward.
Prices
Overall, input prices were up moderately compared to
the previous survey period, while selling prices grew at
modest pace. Respondents in the retail sector reported
moderately higher input and selling prices, and anticipated continued moderate rises in both. Restaurant input
prices were up moderately, while selling prices edged up
slightly. Transportation contacts reported modest growth
in both input and selling prices, but at a slower pace than
in the prior survey. Prices in the construction sector
continued to rise moderately, with strong increases
J-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity
Energy
Manufacturing activity continued to expand at a moderate pace, and the majority of other business contacts
reported modest sales increases. Durable goods manufacturers reported sustained growth in production, particularly for machinery and aircraft, while growth in nondurable goods activity moderated slightly. Shipments and
order backlog grew at a modest pace, and activity was
higher than a year ago. Manufacturers’ capital spending
plans rose moderately, and firms’ expectations for future
activity remained strong.
Energy activity expanded moderately since the last
survey period, and expectations remained cautiously
optimistic. The number of active oil and gas rigs increased slightly, while oil production continued to grow.
Respondents said the price they needed to be profitable
in the areas in which they were active inched up slightly,
and they expected mostly stable oil prices over the next
six months due to strong domestic production. The majority of contacts said potential steel and aluminum tariffs
would have a low-to-medium impact on their drilling
costs, and several have already experienced moderate
increases in the cost of steel. The natural gas market
continued to be oversupplied, straining available takeaway capacity in Oklahoma.
Outside of manufacturing, professional, high-tech, and
wholesale trade firms reported modest sales growth,
while transportation contacts noted a moderate decrease
in activity. All firms expected sales to improve moderately in the next six months. Professional and high tech
contacts anticipated moderate growth in capital spending
plans, while transportation and wholesale trade firms
expected capital spending to be relatively flat in coming
months.
Agriculture
In the Tenth District, farm income and credit conditions
remained weak, and the short-term outlook for the agricultural sector has been influenced by 2018 crop production expectations and drought. Approximately half of
winter wheat acres in Kansas and Oklahoma were rated
as poor or very poor due to abnormally dry conditions.
Corn production was expected to remain unchanged or
decline slightly in all District states. After very strong
growth in 2017, production of soybeans was expected to
remain relatively unchanged in most states, while cotton
production in Oklahoma was forecasted to continue to
expand due to higher prices relative to other crops.
Lower production expectations for corn, soybeans and
wheat supported slightly higher prices. However, District
contacts continued to express concerns about severe
drought, cash flow shortages, decreasing liquidity among
farm borrowers, high production expenses and trade
uncertainty.■
Real Estate and Construction
Real estate activity in the District continued to increase
at a modest pace, and additional gains were expected in
the months ahead. Residential home sales rose modestly, while home prices and inventories increased at a
slight pace compared to the previous survey period.
Sales of low- and medium-priced homes continued to
outpace sales of higher-priced homes. Residential sales
and home prices were expected to increase at a moderate pace in the months ahead, although one contact in
Colorado reported that the typical spring seasonal pickup in activity was slow to begin this year. Residential
construction activity was mixed as construction supply
contacts noted lower sales while builders reported moderately higher housing starts and traffic of potential buyers. Commercial real estate activity continued to rise at a
modest pace, and expectations were for additional gains
moving forward.
Banking
Bankers reported a moderate increase in overall loan
demand for the month of March. Respondents reported a
modest increase for commercial real estate loans and
slightly improved demand for commercial and industrial
and residential real estate loans. Consumer installment
loans were down slightly, while agricultural loans were
steady. Bankers indicated loan quality improved modestly compared to a year ago. In addition, respondents
expected a modest increase in loan quality over the next
six months. Credit standards remained largely unchanged in all major loan categories. Overall, bankers
reported steady deposit levels.
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.KansasCityFed.org/Research/RegionalEconomy
J-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Dallas
The Beige Book ■ April 2018
Summary of Economic Activity
The Eleventh District economy expanded at a moderate pace over the past six weeks. Growth in the nonfinancial services sector accelerated, and retail sales rebounded. Loan demand growth picked up. Robust expansion in the energy
industry continued, while growth in manufacturing eased somewhat. Home sales continued to rise. Hiring was solid
across most sectors, and widespread labor shortages continued. Wage and price growth remained elevated, and several contacts noted a marked rise in the cost of steel. Outlooks, while still optimistic, have become more uncertain due to
new tariffs and trade concerns.
Employment and Wages
Several manufacturers said that talk of steel tariffs
immediately resulted in higher steel prices. An architecture firm noted that the increase in steel costs will impact
the ability of their clients to move forward with some
construction projects. Average gasoline and diesel prices
were fairly stable, although transportation services contacts noted that fuel costs were up notably from a year
ago.
Solid employment growth continued, and wage pressures remained elevated. Hiring picked up pace in
services, retail and energy. Among manufacturers,
employment growth eased a bit. Labor shortages either
continued or escalated, covering a wide array of industries and skill levels. Multiple contacts said employee
retention had become increasingly difficult across skillsets, although they noted that low-skill workers in particular were quick to leave for better-paying positions.
Contacts reported that some rural employers were
busing in workers from nearby cities because their local
labor pool was tapped out. Wage growth remained
elevated across the board and increased further in the
energy industry.
Manufacturing
Expansion in the manufacturing sector continued, although the overall pace of growth eased from the highs
seen in recent months. Output growth was led by transportation and high tech manufacturing, two sectors that
saw an acceleration over the reporting period. Growth in
chemical production receded from February’s elevated
rates, and fabricated metals and food production continued to post slower growth relative to other types of manufacturing. Expectations regarding future business conditions remained optimistic, although several contacts
noted that the newly enacted tariffs were creating a lot of
uncertainty in their outlooks for activity and prices. Refiners and petrochemical producers specifically mentioned
their views about the potential negative impact of these
tariffs on construction projects.
Prices
Price pressures remained elevated over the past six
weeks. Input cost pressures increased among energy,
manufacturing, and construction firms, partly due to the
announced tariffs on steel and aluminum. Upstream
energy firms said the steel tariffs represent a worry,
although some contacts said there shouldn’t be much of
an impact on costs until 2019 when contracts roll over.
Downstream energy contacts were still figuring out how
much of their steel is subject to the new tariff and how
that will affect their costs and investment decisions.
K-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
vacancy rate generally remained low across major metros. Reports on retail leasing activity were mixed.
Retail Sales
Retail sales rebounded over the past six weeks, led by a
sharp rise in auto sales after a challenging start to the
year. A clothing retailer noted that sales continued to
stabilize in stores located in oil patch markets, while
sales in stores along the border started to slip once
again. Other contacts also mentioned softness in retail
sales along the border, citing online retailing and the
development of retail space in Mexico as drivers of the
weakness. For retail more broadly, contacts noted a
continued increase in internet sales, with growth accelerating over the reporting period. Outlooks among retailers
in general remained positive, but some contacts said
their expectations were clouded by the potential negative
impacts of trade and immigration policies.
Financial Services
Overall loan volumes and demand increased at a faster
pace over the past six weeks. Markedly stronger growth
in loan volumes was seen in commercial and industrial,
and commercial real estate. Residential real estate loan
volumes continued to grow at roughly the same pace as
during the prior reporting period, while consumer loan
volumes declined. Credit standards and terms continued
to tighten, and loan pricing increased at a similar pace as
the prior report. Banking contacts remained optimistic,
expecting total loan demand to be better six months from
now. Some contacts mentioned optimism in the market
due to tax reform, while others noted uncertainty about
how new tariffs will impact Texas businesses.
Nonfinancial Services
Energy
Growth in the nonfinancial services sector picked up
over the reporting period, with most industries noting an
acceleration. Leisure and hospitality was a particular
bright spot, with revenue growing again after weakness
earlier this year. Transportation services firms said rail
and air cargo volumes strengthened further while courier
cargo and airline demand remained stable. Growth in
health care lagged other industries, with contacts pointing to a challenging environment with increased regulatory requirements and decreased funding and/or reimbursements. Staffing services contacts noted high levels
of demand, driven by activity being broad based across
geographies and sectors. Outlooks rose slightly over the
past six weeks, although uncertainty surrounding trade
policies and the new tariffs negatively impacted some
firms’ expectations.
Energy activity continued to expand moderately. The rig
count increased over the reporting period and drilling
and completion activity was up in the Permian Basin and
Eagle Ford. Outlooks remained positive for 2018, supported by oil prices holding at levels at which the vast
majority of firms can profitably increase drilling. However,
multiple contacts suggested tight markets for labor and
equipment may constrain further acceleration in drilling
activity.
Agriculture
Drought conditions plagued much of Texas, severely so
in the Texas panhandle. Lack of soil moisture particularly
affected winter wheat, and the crop was largely in poor
to very poor condition. Pasture conditions were also
negatively impacted, and some ranchers were moving
cattle from grazing to feedlots earlier than usual. Texas
will see an increase in cotton acres this year, according
to contacts, driven by strong demand, relatively high
cotton prices, and new provisions in the farm bill. Cattle
prices declined over the reporting period, and milk prices
remained low enough to start forcing some smaller dairies out of business. Trade issues continued to make
agricultural producers and lenders nervous. ■
Construction and Real Estate
Home sales rose moderately since the last report, with
particular strength noted at the lower price points. Outlooks were positive, but there is concern among builders
about margin compression and the impact of rising mortgage rates on future sales. Apartment demand was
seasonally slow during the first quarter, and occupancy
rates fell in all major Texas metro areas as an aggressive pace of new deliveries exceeded demand. Rent
growth accelerated in Houston, but was sluggish in
Dallas and San Antonio and dipped in Austin. Multifamily
construction remained active, although it has moderated
somewhat relative to last year.
Office market conditions remained weak in Houston, and
contacts reported an uptick in sublease space. The
industrial market was characterized as solid, and the
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.dallasfed.org/research/texas
K-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
San Francisco
The Beige Book ■ April 2018
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Twelfth District continued to expand at a moderate pace during the reporting period of late
February through early April. Conditions in the labor market remained tight, and upward wage pressures persisted. Price
inflation increased modestly. Sales of retail goods were down slightly, while growth in consumer and business services
remained solid. Conditions in the manufacturing sector picked up modestly, and activity in the agriculture sector was flat.
Contacts reported that residential real estate market activity continued at a strong pace, and conditions in the commercial real estate sector were solid. Lending activity ticked up.
anticipation of tariffs and unrelated increases in raw
material costs. Airfares picked up modestly following
further industry consolidation and oil price increases.
Pharmaceutical prices inched up, resulting in a slight
increase in health insurance costs for a Mountain West
health-care provider. Retail sales prices were broadly flat
to down slightly, with the impact of increased competition
in low-cost product spaces mostly offset by the effect of
strong demand for high-end goods. Wheat prices decreased modestly due to excess supply. Declines in
natural gas prices put downward pressure on heating
prices across the District.
Employment and Wages
Contacts across the District continued to report tight
labor market conditions and persistent upward wage
pressures in various sectors. Demand for workers experienced in cybersecurity was up. Metals manufacturers
reported a modest uptick in employment growth. A contact in real estate development in Northern California
observed that demand for contract labor exceeded supply, causing wages to jump. Labor demand in the utilities
sector declined somewhat as sales weakened. Employers faced difficulties in filling vacancies in both high- and
low-skill positons. In response to labor shortages, several contacts reported increased use of overtime and
heightened efforts to automate routine tasks. In Los
Angeles, a contact in the air transportation sector implemented process improvements that substituted information technology for labor in customer interactions. In
some areas of California, high costs of living made it
difficult to attract job candidates. The recent corporate
tax cut resulted in some one-time bonuses and a small
increase in entry-level wages, according to a few contacts.
Retail Trade and Services
Sales of retail goods were down slightly over the reporting period. Contacts in the Mountain West noted that bad
weather in the past month had a negative impact on
sales activity in their region. Demand for motor vehicles
slowed modestly because of increasing financing costs.
The restaurant industry continued to see foot traffic edge
down. While mall-based retail activity had been trending
down, recently, stores have maintained sales volumes
while managing inventories tightly.
Prices
Activity in the consumer and business services sectors
remained solid. Demand for airline travel was strong,
especially from international passengers following improvements in the global economy. Contacts in Los
Angeles noted a pickup in tourism activity. Demand for
freight airline services was at its highest level since the
Price inflation increased modestly over the reporting
period. Strong construction activity drove further price
inflation for a wide variety of building materials, including
lumber and sheetrock. Contacts reported a jump in
inflationary pressures for metals prices, partly due to the
L-1
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
noticeably, limited only by the persistent shortage of
labor and increasing material costs. Contacts across the
District observed a solid increase in housing starts,
especially for single-family homes, though lengthy permitting processes acted as an additional headwind.
Construction starts on middle- to high-end units grew
faster than that of more-affordable units because rising
input costs jeopardized returns in lower-end markets.
Throughout the District, increases in demand amidst stilllow inventory levels caused residential sale prices to rise
further. Contacts in the Pacific Northwest reported a
jump in apartment rents. Commercial real estate activity
moderated to a solid pace. Contacts in Eastern Washington reported a modest decline in permitting for commercial projects on a year-over-year basis. Demand for
warehouse space for shipping fulfillment operations was
up across the District. Some regions of the District cited
rising financing costs as a growing constraint on commercial real estate activity.
recession. A major health insurance provider in Utah
reported significant competition in the commercial provider market.
Manufacturing
Conditions in manufacturing picked up modestly. Capacity utilization across a range of manufacturing sectors,
including steel, picked up noticeably despite rising input
prices. Inventories in some sectors ticked up because of
a slight decline in export growth, according to a contact
in Northern California. Both deliveries and new orders of
commercial aircraft edged down on a year-over-year
basis. A contact in the metals industry noted greater
uncertainty about production costs because materials
suppliers would not enter price guarantee agreements.
Agriculture and Resource-Related Industries
Activity in the agriculture sector was flat on balance.
Wheat yields were up modestly across the District. Demand in the feedlot industry inched up on a year-overyear basis. Cattle profits were solid, though margins
narrowed. Demand for electricity in Southern California
was flat, leading excess capacity in power generation to
edge up in the region. Grain inventories remained elevated in the Mountain West, and sales contracts fell over
the reporting period. Contacts noted that much of the
grain industry continued to face prices below breakeven
levels.
Financial Institutions
Lending activity ticked up over the reporting period. Loan
demand was mixed but increased slightly overall. Strong
loan demand in Oregon resulted in a modest jump in
lending rates. Contacts in Northern California reported
moderate growth in consumer loan demand, while commercial demand fell modestly. On balance, deposit rates
edged up and net interest margins remained narrow.
Asset quality remained solid. In Oregon, underwriting
standards for residential development loans tightened
moderately.■
Real Estate and Construction
Activity in real estate markets continued at a strong
pace. Construction in the residential market picked up
L-2
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (2018, May 1). Beige Book. Beige Book, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/beige_book_20180502
@misc{wtfs_beige_book_20180502,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Beige Book},
year = {2018},
month = {May},
howpublished = {Beige Book, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/beige_book_20180502},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}