Beige Book
For use at 2:00 PM EDT
Wednesday
September 4th, 2019
The Beige Book
Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions
By Federal Reserve District
August 2019
Federal Reserve Districts
Minneapolis
Boston
Chicago
New York
Cleveland
Philadelphia
San Francisco
Kansas City
St. Louis
Richmond
Atlanta
Dallas
Alaska and Hawaii
are part of the
San Francisco District.
The System serves commonwealths and territories as follows: the New York Bank serves the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands; the San Francisco Bank serves American Samoa, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.
National Summary
Boston
1
A-1
First District
New York
B-1
Second District
Philadelphia
C-1
Third District
Cleveland
D-1
E-1
Fifth District
Atlanta
F-1
Sixth District
Chicago
G-1
Seventh District
St. Louis
H-1
Eighth District
Minneapolis
The Beige Book is a Federal Reserve System publication about current
economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. It characterizes regional economic conditions and prospects based on a variety
of mostly qualitative information, gathered directly from District
sources.
The qualitative nature of the Beige Book creates an opportunity to
characterize dynamics and identify emerging trends in the economy
that may not be readily apparent in the available economic data. Because this information is collected from a wide range of business and
community contacts through a variety of formal and informal methods,
the Beige Book can complement other forms of regional information
gathering.
How is the information collected?
Fourth District
Richmond
What is The Beige Book?
Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current
economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and
Branch directors, plus phone and in-person interviews with and online
questionnaires completed by businesses, community contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources.
How is the information used?
The anecdotal information collected in the Beige Book supplements the
data and analysis used by Federal Reserve economists and staff to
assess economic conditions in the Federal Reserve Districts. This
information enables comparison of economic conditions in different
parts of the country, which can be helpful for assessing the outlook for
the national economy. The Beige Book also serves as a regular summary of the Federal Reserve System’s efforts to listen to businesses
and community organizations.
I-1
Ninth District
Kansas City
J-1
Tenth District
Dallas
K-1
Eleventh District
San Francisco
Twelfth District
L-1
This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta based
on information collected on or before August 23, 2019. This document
summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal
Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal
Reserve officials.
National Summary
The Beige Book ■ August 2019
Overall Economic Activity
On balance, reports from Federal Reserve Districts suggested that the economy expanded at a modest pace through
the end of August. Although concerns regarding tariffs and trade policy uncertainty continued, the majority of businesses remained optimistic about the near-term outlook. Reports on consumer spending were mixed, although auto sales
for most Districts grew at a modest pace. Tourism activity since the previous report remained solid in most reporting
Districts. On balance, transportation activity softened, which some reporting Districts attributed to slowing global demand and heightened trade tensions. Home sales remained constrained in the majority of Districts due primarily to low
inventory levels, and new home construction activity remained flat. Commercial real estate construction and sales
activity were steady, while the pace of leasing increased slightly over the prior period. Overall manufacturing activity
was down slightly from the previous report. Among reporting Districts, agricultural conditions remained weak as a result
of unfavorable weather conditions, low commodity prices, and trade-related uncertainties. Lending volumes grew modestly across several Districts. Reports on activity in the nonfinancial services sector were positive, with reporting Districts noting similar or improved activity from the last report.
Employment and Wages
Overall, Districts indicated that employment grew at a modest pace, on par with the previous reporting period. While
employment growth varied by industry, some Districts noted manufacturing employment was flat to down. Firms and
staffing agencies universally cited tightness across various labor market segments and skill levels, which continued to
constrain growth in overall business activity. On balance, Districts reported that the pace of wage growth remained
modest to moderate, similar to the previous reporting period. Districts continued to report strong upward pressure on
pay for entry-level and low-skill workers, as well as for technology, construction, and some professional services positions. In addition to wage increases, some Districts noted other efforts—such as enhanced benefits offerings, work
arrangement flexibility, and signing bonuses—to attract and retain employees.
Prices
On net, Districts indicated modest price increases since the last report. Retailers and manufacturers in some Districts
reported slight increases in input costs. Although firms in some Districts noted an ability to pass along price increases,
manufacturers relayed limited ability to raise prices. District reports on the impact of tariffs on pricing were mixed, with
some Districts anticipating that the effects would not be felt for a few months.
Highlights by Federal Reserve District
Job creation was sluggish, but labor markets remained
tight and wage growth picked up a bit. Prices continued
to rise modestly. Manufacturing activity picked up slightly. Residential rental markets firmed. Banks reported a
rebound in loan demand, but the financial sector overall
showed signs of softening.
Boston
Economic activity expanded at a modest pace since the
last Beige Book report, although some manufacturers
saw declines while tourism and the staffing sector reported strength. Commercial real estate markets strengthened on balance. Residential real estate inventories
were down and contacts noted bidding wars.
Philadelphia
On balance, business activity continued at a modest
pace of growth during the current Beige Book period.
New York
Regional economic growth continued at a modest pace.
1
National Summary
Contacts continued to report difficulty in finding qualified
labor, and wage increases remained moderate. Still,
inflation remained modest. Firms remained positive
about the six-month outlook, although some expressed
more caution given uncertainty.
remained healthy but employment was flat, as labor
availability continued to constrain hiring. Manufacturing
grew slightly, but contacts pointed to some signs of
softening. Agricultural conditions remained weak due to
poor weather during planting, while commercial construction grew strongly as firms caught up with a backlog
caused by the slow start to the season.
Cleveland
On balance, economic activity was steady over the
period. Consumer spending picked up, while manufacturing and freight activity slowed down. Employment
remained stable overall, while wages rose moderately
across the board. Prices were little changed, with contacts citing as contributing factors a lack of materials cost
inflation, intense competition, and softening demand.
Kansas City
District economic activity edged up in July and early
August. Consumer spending increased modestly, with
gains in retail, auto, restaurant and tourism sales. Real
estate activity also expanded, but residential construction activity slowed. Manufacturing activity declined
slightly, while activity held steady in the energy sector.
The agricultural sector remained weak, with low prices
and trade uncertainty weighing on farm income.
Richmond
The Fifth District economy continued to grow at a modest rate. Manufacturers and trucking companies saw
some declines in shipments. Ports, tourism, and nonfinancial service firms generally indicated increasing
activity. Residential and commercial real estate markets
were stable to improving modestly. Labor markets remained tight, wages rose modestly, and prices increased
at a moderate rate.
Dallas
Economic activity continued to expand moderately.
Retail sales were flat and drilling activity dipped, but
output growth strengthened in manufacturing. Selling
price increases were modest, as most firms were limited
in their ability to pass through higher costs. Hiring continued at a steady pace. Outlooks were mixed, with tariffs,
trade tensions, stock market volatility, and slowing global
growth driving up uncertainty.
Atlanta
Economic activity moderated slightly over the reporting
period. Labor market tightness persisted. Wage growth
remained steady and input costs rose slightly. Retail
sales and tourism activity were mixed. Real estate sales
and construction were down from a year ago. Manufacturing activity softened. Banking conditions remained
steady.
San Francisco
Economic activity in the Twelfth District continued to
expand at a moderate pace. The labor market remained
tight and wage growth was moderate. Price inflation was
largely stable. Sales of retail goods increased notably, as
did activity in the consumer and business services sectors. The manufacturing and agricultural sectors slowed
somewhat. Activity in residential and commercial real
estate markets expanded moderately, and lending grew
further.
Chicago
Economic activity increased slightly. Consumer spending
increased modestly; employment and business spending
increased slightly; and manufacturing and construction
and real estate were little changed. Wages and prices
rose slightly. Financial conditions were little changed on
balance. Farm income prospects improved some, but
remained poor for most agriculture sectors.
St. Louis
Economic conditions were unchanged from our previous
report. Construction activity ticked up. Barge traffic continued to improve, but air cargo traffic decreased slightly
from a year ago. Farming conditions remain strained by
low commodity prices and residual effects from flooding
in the spring. Overall, contacts’ economic outlook for the
remainder of the year turned slightly pessimistic.
Minneapolis
Ninth District activity was steady overall. Labor demand
2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Boston
The Beige Book ■ August 2019
Summary of Economic Activity
Most First District business contacts reported modest revenue growth in the second quarter and into the summer
months, but some retailers, hotels, and manufacturers cited stronger sales growth and a couple of manufacturers said
revenue was down from a year earlier. Tariffs and general trade uncertainty continued to be mentioned as risk factors.
Staffing firms were more upbeat than three months ago, reporting improvements in the pace of revenue growth. Commercial real estate markets also improved somewhat, with Boston continuing to be the strongest area. Residential real
estate market activity moderated during the summer months. While some firms mentioned raising wages somewhat to
attract and keep employees, most said the labor market was steady. Outlooks ranged from guardedly optimist to generally positive.
ed. One explanation was a slowdown in getting products
from non-Chinese Asian manufacturers, as the ports in
these countries were said to be not yet able to handle
the increased shipping demand. The retail outlook for the
rest of the year is largely positive.
Employment and Wages
Labor markets were reportedly not much changed from
the last report. One fast-growing retailer reported a
successful on-campus recruiting push, filling technical
and other jobs and raising wages to do so. Another
retailer continued to cite little difficulty hiring sales people. Manufacturing respondents, with one exception,
reported no major revisions to their hiring plans. The
exception was a semiconductor-related firm facing sales
declines, who said they would probably start layoffs
within six to eight weeks. Staffing firms said the number
of job requests overall remained strong for both temporary and permanent openings. Most staffing contacts
reported stable bill and pay rates, but two firms increased both rates by low single-digit percentages.
An automotive industry contact in Connecticut reported
that sales through June were up slightly from the first
quarter. Dealers were selling more used cars than new
models, with consumer credit readily available for financing either new or used vehicles. The contact argued that
imposing additional tariffs on China would have a disproportionately adverse effect on U.S. autos.
A travel industry contact reported that Boston hotel
room demand increased 3.2 percent in June over last
year, and that the average room rate was 4.2 percent
higher. Boston hoteliers said they were happy with the
summer tourism season to date, as strong business and
leisure travel kept room demand high. Year-to-date
through June, average room revenue for Boston hotels
was up 6.9 percent, compared with the national average
of 3.3 percent. These mid-year results and anecdotal
reports through mid-August lead the tourism industry to
expect 2019 revenues to be up solidly over 2018.
Prices
Contacts said very little about prices. Retailers noted no
price concerns. Tariffs continued to be a minor but persistent pricing issue for manufacturers; firms generally
tried to pass price increases on to buyers and reported
success most of the time. Aside from tariffs, manufacturers reported no unusual pricing pressure.
Retail and Tourism
Manufacturing and Related Services
First District retail respondents this round reported comparable-store sales increases ranging from flat to up by
mid-single digit percentages or higher year-over-year.
Some contacts said results exceeded their expectations,
while others cited July sales a little slower than anticipat-
Reports from manufacturing contacts continued to be
mixed. Three of the nine firms contacted this round are
in the semiconductor industry; two reported sales declines versus the same period a year earlier, including
A-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
one with a 20 percent drop. Several contacts in other
industries reported that growth, while still positive, was
slower than in earlier periods. A manufacturer of electrical equipment attributed some of its slowdown to lower
energy prices reducing demand from energy extraction
firms. An aerospace firm which supplies parts to
Boeing’s 737 MAX aircraft indicated that that aircraft’s
well-publicized problems had not translated into lower
sales yet. A manufacturer of dairy products said demand
for their products was the strongest in a long time.
share of office construction has risen relative to apartments.
In the Providence area, industrial leasing activity remained robust, exceeding expectations, and two-year
rent growth in that market was estimated at 33 percent.
Office leasing in Providence softened and office asking
rents were stable despite a vacancy uptick; a contact
expects effective rents to soften moving forward. In
greater Hartford, leasing activity for both office and industrial space was described as very slow but stable.
No contacts reported significant revisions to capital
expenditure plans. One respondent in the electrical
equipment business said that the tariffs had led them to
invest more in automating factories in the U.S. as opposed to moving them to Mexico.
Investment sales were slow across the District. Contacts
expect sales to resume in the fall, with the potential for
increased demand following declines in long-term Treasury yields and increasingly favorable borrowing conditions. Concerning the outlook, contacts see no risks of
overbuilding or overleverage in commercial property in
the District. In Boston, the lack of profitability of high-tech
firms occupying large blocks of space was cited as a risk
factor. Otherwise, respondents expect stable activity.
Outside of the semiconductor industry, the outlook remained generally positive for most contacts. Many continued to mention trade tensions as an issue.
Staffing Services
Residential Real Estate
New England staffing firms reported positive revenue
trends for the second quarter of 2019. All firms cited
improved growth rates compared to the previous quarter,
with rates as high as 20 percent quarter-over-quarter.
Two mentioned that their business results were among
the top five performing firms in their respective region.
On the other hand, scarce labor supply continues to be
the most challenging issue among staffing businesses.
Several respondents noted difficulty in matching the skill
sets job seekers possessed with those desired by employers. Consequently, companies wanting to hire have
been accepting less qualified workers and offering higher
pay rates. Staffing firms mentioned aggressive use of
online recruiting job boards and offering competitive
rates and benefits to candidates. With unemployment
low and labor supply limited, staffing respondents cited a
guardedly optimistic outlook.
Activity in residential real estate markets in the First
District moderated in June or July following strong sales
results in May. (Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and
Maine reported year-over-year changes from July 2018
to July 2019, while Massachusetts, Vermont, and Greater Boston reported statistics through June. Connecticut
statistics were unavailable.) For single family homes,
closed sales decreased moderately from a year earlier in
Massachusetts, Boston, and New Hampshire, and increased in Rhode Island and Maine. Median sales prices
rose and inventory declined in all reporting areas. In
particular, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and New
Hampshire experienced double-digit inventory drops
over the year. For condos, closed sales were down and
prices were up in all areas except Maine. Condo inventories improved in Maine, Massachusetts, and Boston, and
decreased sharply in New Hampshire and Rhode Island.
In Vermont, closed sales and inventory dropped for
single family homes and condos combined.
Commercial Real Estate
Commercial real estate activity in the First District
strengthened somewhat overall, but differences in performance across geographic submarkets persisted. The
Boston area saw robust leasing demand in both the
office and industrial sectors. Class A office rents in prime
Boston locations increased substantially in the past six
months, and the office vacancy rate, at roughly 8 percent, was said by one contact to be at an all-time low.
Industrial rents in Boston climbed 6 percent to 10 percent over the year as e-commerce users competed
fiercely for scarce warehouse space. Construction activity held steady in the Boston area; in recent months, the
Contacts expressed a positive near-term outlook, citing
persistent high demand and low interest rates as reasons. However, contacts voiced affordability concerns as
intense bidding and multiple offers still prevail.■
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.bostonfed.org/regional‐economy
A-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
New York
The Beige Book ■ August 2019
Summary of Economic Activity
The Second District economy continued to expand at a modest pace in the latest reporting period. The labor market
remained very tight, as employment levels were flat, and wage growth picked up slightly. Input price pressures have
remained subdued, while selling prices have been flat to up moderately. Manufacturing activity was steady to slightly
higher, while trade and distribution activity was mixed. However, most service sectors saw steady to modestly growing
activity. Consumer spending was up modestly, largely reflecting a pickup in auto sales. Tourism has picked up noticeably. Housing markets have been mixed, though the residential rental market has firmed throughout the District. Commercial real estate markets have been steady to softer, and new commercial construction has tapered off somewhat.
Finally, banks reported a rebound in loan demand, though the financial sector overall showed signs of softening.
Employment and Wages
Prices
The labor market has remained very tight across the
District. Contacts have continued to report trouble finding
qualified workers in a wide variety of roles, including
engineers, teachers, construction workers, truck drivers,
and retail clerks. An employment agency noted that one
factor holding back hiring has been a wide gap between
job candidates’ salary demands and employers’ offers.
Overall, businesses indicated that both input costs and
selling prices continued to rise at a modest pace, though
there have been some divergent trends across industries. Manufacturers report that their input prices have
continued to rise at a modest pace but that their selling
prices have flattened out. Looking ahead, an increasingly
large share of manufacturers said that they expect their
input costs to rise faster than the prices they receive.
Contacts in the service sector, on the other hand, reported ongoing growth in their selling prices—particularly in
the transportation and education & health industries—
along with continued moderate growth in input prices.
Businesses in most industries continued to report little or
no net hiring. Contacts in the manufacturing, transportation, information, finance, and professional & business
services sectors reported flat to slightly declining staffing
levels, while businesses in education & health, real
estate, and leisure & hospitality reported modest increases in headcounts. The one industry noting fairly brisk net
hiring has been wholesale trade. Looking ahead to the
next six months, though, businesses in manufacturing
and most service sectors still plan on adding to staff.
Retailers generally indicated that selling prices have
been mostly flat to down slightly, reflecting somewhat
steeper discounting. Contacts in both auto sales and
retail indicated that trade tensions have not yet had a
noticeable effect on prices. In contrast, a major retail
chain noted that they had raised prices on furniture and
other big-ticket items, but that they were likely to reverse
those hikes, as consumers were not responding well.
While businesses generally report that wage growth has
remained moderate, there have been scattered signs of
a pickup. A large New York City employment agency
notes somewhat more upward pressure on salaries, and
a finance sector contact in upstate New York notes that
they recently upped pay scales for entry-level workers in
response to the tight labor market.
Consumer Spending
Retail sales remained steady in recent weeks and flat to
up slightly from a year earlier. A major retailer noted
some slowing in sales in early August (partly reflecting
B-1
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Real Estate and Construction
tariff-driven price hikes), but the advent of back-to-school
season has mitigated that decline. An upstate New York
mall reported continued modest growth in sales activity
and shopper traffic. In general, inventories were said to
be near desired levels, helped by increased discounting
over the summer.
Housing markets across the District have firmed somewhat since the last report, with the rental market
strengthening but the sales market mixed. The market
for existing homes in upstate New York has continued to
strengthen, as persistently low inventories of unsold
homes has continued to boost prices and contributed to
bidding wars. In New York City, by contrast, the inventory of unsold co-ops and condos has hovered at a 7-year
high, though not excessively high by historical standards.
Apartment sales prices have drifted down, and transactions activity has retreated from brisk second-quarter
levels. Housing markets in the areas surrounding New
York City have been mixed.
Sales of both new and used vehicles picked up noticeably, according to dealers in upstate New York. Still,
inventories of new vehicles remained above desired
levels. Dealers indicated that service departments have
remained busy and characterized consumer credit conditions as being in good shape.
Manufacturing and Distribution
The manufacturing and distribution sectors have improved somewhat since the last report. Manufacturers
reported that overall activity and new orders have been
steady to slightly higher in the latest reporting period,
after a pullback during the late spring. Wholesale distributors reported that growth rebounded to a fairly brisk
pace. However, transportation firms noted a moderate
drop-off in activity in recent weeks.
Residential rents have accelerated somewhat across the
District and are now up 3-6 percent from a year earlier.
Rental vacancy rates have declined further, particularly
in New York City, and landlord concessions have continued to recede from the high levels of recent years.
Commercial real estate markets across the District have
been steady to softer since the last report. Office rents
have been mostly flat, while availability rates have been
steady to slightly higher. Industrial markets have been
mixed, as rents have continued to rise moderately, while
availability rates have edged up further. The market for
retail space has been particularly soft, with availability
rates climbing to multi-year highs and rents declining
modestly.
While manufacturers remain fairly positive about the
near-term outlook, wholesale distributors and especially
transportation firms have become noticeably less optimistic. Contacts in these sectors, as well as in manufacturing, have expressed ongoing concern about tariffs and
trade tensions and about uncertainty going forward.
Services
New multi-family construction starts have tapered off a
bit, but ongoing construction has remained fairly brisk
across the New York City area. New office construction
has been steady, while new industrial construction has
slowed somewhat. There has been quite extensive new
hotel development in New York City’s outer boroughs.
Service-sector businesses reported that activity has
been mixed but, on balance, a bit stronger since the last
report. Contacts in leisure & hospitality noted a substantial pickup in business. An authority on New York City’s
tourism industry reported that visitations picked up and
were strong in August but that visitors were spending
less, on average. Broadway theaters reported that attendance slipped somewhat in July and early August and
was down modestly from a year ago. Hotel occupancy
rates were solid, though average room rates were down
due to more people staying at budget hotels.
Banking and Finance
Bankers reported higher demand for consumer loans,
residential mortgages, and commercial mortgages, all of
which had declined in the previous reporting period.
Refinancing activity rose. Credit standards for consumer
loans, residential mortgages, and C&I loans were unchanged, but tightening standards were reported for
commercial mortgages. Bankers reported narrowing loan
spreads across all categories. Finally, delinquency rates
were reported to be stable across all categories. ■
Other service industries have not been as robust. Businesses engaged in professional & business services and
education & health reported modest growth in activity,
while finance and real estate firms generally reported flat
activity. Contacts in the information sector reported some
pullback in activity. Service firms, in general, were fairly
optimistic about the near-term outlook, except for those
in the finance sector.
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.newyorkfed.org/regional‐economy
B-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia
The Beige Book ■ August 2019
Summary of Economic Activity
On balance, aggregate Third District business activity continued at a modest pace of growth during the current Beige
Book period. Manufacturing accelerated to a moderate pace of growth, and nonmanufacturing, nonauto retail sales, and
tourism continued at a modest pace of growth. Sales for new autos as well as commercial real estate construction and
leasing continued to decline slightly. Homebuilding softened somewhat, and existing home sales declined further. Wage
increases remained moderate, as the labor market remained tight. Overall, price pressures remained modest. The firms’
outlook for growth over the next six months remained positive, with about half of all firms anticipating increases in general activity and less than one-fifth expecting decreases. However, contacts noted a slightly more cautious outlook given
trade and market uncertainty.
Employment and Wages
services. The share of nonmanufacturing firms reporting
increases in prices rose, while the share of manufacturing firms reporting increases held mostly steady. Roughly two-thirds to three-quarters of firms reported no
change in prices over the period. Most banking contacts
continued to note no signs of inflation.
Employment growth continued at a modest pace during
the current Beige Book period. More than one-fourth of
all firms reported increases in staff, similar to the previous period, however, the share of manufacturers reporting decreases rose. Average work hours were little
changed across firms over the period.
Looking ahead six months, manufacturers continued to
anticipate higher prices for inputs and for their own
goods, on balance. The percentage of manufacturing
firms that expect to pay higher prices for inputs rose to
above 45 percent, and the share expecting to receive
higher prices for their own goods increased to almost 35
percent.
Contacts continued to report that tight labor market
conditions were constraining growth, as many noted
difficulty in finding qualified workers for needed positions
in various sectors. Staffing firms reported continued
struggles in finding qualified candidates, with one firm
describing the labor pool in its area as “nearly nonexistent.”
Manufacturing
Wage growth continued at a moderate pace, with contacts reporting wage increases ranging from above 3
percent to above 5 percent on a year-over-year basis.
The share of nonmanufacturing contacts who reported
increases in wage and benefit costs edged down below
45 percent; only 1 percent reported decreases. Several
contacts reported no change or a leveling-off in wages
from the prior period.
On balance, manufacturers reported moderate growth in
activity – a pickup from the slight pace of growth during
the prior period. Indexes for shipments and unfilled orders remained above long-term nonrecession averages,
and the new orders index improved to an above-average
level as well.
The makers of lumber products, chemicals, and fabricated metal products noted gains in new orders and shipments since the prior period. The primary metal and
industrial machinery producers reported little change,
Prices
The firms reported overall modest increases for both
input prices and prices received for their own goods and
C-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
and the makers of electronic products noted declines.
These trends were somewhat weaker this year compared with the same period one year ago for most of the
sectors.
Financial Services
Manufacturers’ expectations of activity over the next six
months improved somewhat. Expectations of shipments
and of new orders were above long-term nonrecession
averages, with the latter rising above average over the
period. Expectations of future employment and planned
capital spending also remained above average but were
little changed. Some firms reported that uncertainty
continued to hamper their investment decisions.
During the current period (reported without seasonal
adjustments), volumes appeared to grow robustly in
home mortgages and auto lending. Commercial and
industrial loans grew moderately, as did other consumer
loans (not elsewhere classified). Home equity lines declined modestly.
Financial firms reported continued moderate growth in
both overall loan volumes (excluding credit cards) and
credit card lending on a year-over-year basis.
Banking contacts continued to note increased uncertainty, but while some contacts reported that businesses
were hanging on the sidelines or hitting pause, other
contacts have not seen customers holding off on making
investments. Contacts generally remained optimistic for
the remainder of 2019, although somewhat less so than
in the prior period.
Consumer Spending
Contacts for malls and convenience stores continued to
report modest growth in nonauto retail sales, on balance.
Some mall store operators reported modest increases in
year-over-year sales and foot traffic. Convenience store
contacts continued to report strong sales.
Real Estate and Construction
Sales of new autos continued to show signs of slowing
but remained near high levels. Pennsylvania dealers
reported moderate year-over-year growth through July
for both new and used cars and noted recent weakness
in new car sales. In New Jersey, early estimates by
dealers indicated modest declines in year-over-year
sales for July and August, following weak sales in June.
One contact cited weakening consumer confidence and
rising new car prices as contributing factors.
Homebuilders reported a modest decrease in contract
signings in the current period, down from the prior period. Contacts noted some strength in southern New
Jersey housing markets across most price ranges but a
slowing in traffic and sales at all price points in central
Pennsylvania.
Existing home sales declined moderately on a year-overyear basis – a larger decline than in the prior period –
across most local markets. Low inventories continued to
limit sales in all markets. A large Philadelphia broker
noted a slight boost in refinancing activity following the
FOMC’s rate cut.
Tourism activity continued to grow at a modest pace.
One contact noted that the Jersey shore season has
been fine, with high occupancy, and that restaurants and
other retail are performing well. Casino revenues in
Atlantic City were up modestly. Occupancy rates recovered in the Poconos for the summer season following
softness earlier in the year. Hotel demand in the Greater
Philadelphia market was generally in line with the prior
period but slowed somewhat, partly owing to shorter
booking windows for business travel.
On balance, commercial real estate construction and
leasing activity continued to pull back from relatively high
levels. Contacts noted that fundamentals in larger markets seemed sound. Office and industrial markets were
characterized by relatively even to positive net absorption, stable vacancy rates, and incremental rent growth.■
Nonfinancial Services
On balance, activity at service-sector firms continued at
a modest pace of growth. The percentage of firms reporting increases in current revenues rose, although the
percentage reporting increases in new orders fell.
Roughly one-half of firms expect growth over the next six
months, unchanged over the period. One large firm
noted that it had a modestly more conservative outlook
and that it was cutting back on capital spending a bit
because of recent uncertainty.
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regionaleconomy
C-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Cleveland
The Beige Book ■ September 2019
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the District was steady on balance. Retailers reported modestly improving sales over the period.
Real estate agents also saw increased home sales, including a pickup in the first-time-buyers segment. Bankers reported firm consumer lending as lower interest rates drove mortgage and auto loans, but they reported softening commercial loans. Manufacturers saw weaker demand because uncertainty led their customers to delay capital expenditures. In
addition, factory inventories were elevated as sales fell more than anticipated. Freight volumes decreased. Overall
District employment remained relatively steady, with little change in most sectors. Wages rose moderately across industry sectors and occupational categories. Prices were little changed in general in the District. However, many contacts
expected input costs to rise in the near future, in part because of anticipated new tariffs.
Employment and Wages
and business services. A manufacturer said that wages
were still rising because “despite demand shortfalls, the
employment market remains tight.” A nonresidential
contractor paid midyear bonuses to his workers, a move
atypical for the firm. In contrast, freight haulers saw
slower wage growth because weaker demand reduced
firms’ ability to raise wages.
Total employment was steady in the District, although
reports on hiring varied by industry. Professional and
business services firms continued to hire to keep up with
strong demand. A few construction contractors added
professional or field staff, but the majority did not. One
contractor commented, “experienced staff can handle
the expected volume.” Most freight haulers did not expand their payrolls although turnover remained high.
Retailers generally held headcounts steady outside of
typical seasonal variations. Meanwhile, factories tried to
align their labor needs with slower sales. Generally,
manufacturers did not lay off workers, but several implemented other labor-reducing measures such as fewer
shifts, reduced overtime, fewer temporary employees,
and shrinkage by attrition.
Prices
Prices were little changed on net, though there were
small changes in a few sectors. Several manufacturers
cut their selling prices because of downward pressure
from weakening global demand. First, weakening demand contributed to falling commodities prices to which
many manufacturers’ contracts were indexed. Second, it
led to stiff competition for contracts among global manufacturers. Freight haulers indicated that excess shipping
capacity eroded their pricing power. Most retailers held
prices steady. Professional and business services firms
reported no pricing power because of slower demand
growth and strong competition in the sector. A few nonresidential contractors were able to raise prices (and
margins) because of persistently strong demand, but
residential contractors felt buyers’ concerns about affordability meant they were unable to raise prices. Contacts
Overall wage growth increased slightly to a moderate
pace in recent weeks, with modest to moderate growth in
most sectors. Retailers, bankers, and staffing agencies
reported strong upward pressure on entry-level wages.
One staffing executive commented that many clients
were raising entry-level wages, and that it is “very
strange to see a client offering the [state] minimum
wage.” Stiff competition for skilled workers led to higher
wages in manufacturing, construction, and professional
D-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
across sectors expected input costs to rise in the future,
largely because they anticipated more tariffs.
Financial Services
Bankers reported that loan demand declined slightly. In
general, demand from commercial clients softened.
Consumer lending held firm, as lower interest rates
bolstered demand for mortgages and auto loans. Bankers would like to decrease deposit rates to offset declining lending rates, but many reported that competition for
deposits remained too intense to reduce these rates.
Overall, core deposits increased on balance.
Consumer Spending
Reports indicated that retail spending increased modestly in recent weeks. Food retailers said that a typical
increase in demand for seasonal products and the start
of the back-to-school selling season boosted sales. By
contrast, apparel retailers indicated activity was relatively
flat in recent weeks, although some were optimistic that
sales would increase in the near future. Auto dealers
reported solid sales in July, with one noting that “lease
returns and incentives have bolstered sales.”
Professional and Business Services
Activity in professional and business services remained
solid, but growth softened since the previous report.
Consulting firms reported strong activity and generally
indicated that their smaller, local clients had a solid
pipeline of projects. By contrast, technology firms suggested that activity was flat or down slightly. One technology contact reported softening demand from clients in
Asia, and another noted an overall reduction in the volume of large-scale deals.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity declined modestly as demand
continued to soften across end markets. Several contacts reported that both they and their customers had
delayed capital spending as trade tensions and related
uncertainty clouded their outlooks. Additionally, respondents noted that weakening demand abroad pushed down
prices and intensified competition with foreign manufacturers who were looking for new markets in which to sell
their products. Capacity utilization declined, but some
manufacturers indicated that this was a return to normal
following more than a year of hectic activity. Several
contacts reported that inventory levels were elevated
because demand fell more sharply than anticipated.
Looking forward, reports were mixed: some manufacturers believed that orders would improve in the fourth
quarter and beyond, while others expected demand to
weaken further.
Freight
Freight volumes softened further since the previous
report. One freight executive summarized the sector by
saying, "freight volumes are down in most channels. It is
not clear how much of this is related to the surge of last
year wearing off and how much is associated with current demand." Another contact suggested that heightened trade tensions with China have dampened domestic freight demand. Several freight haulers said that
shipments will increase ahead of the upcoming holiday
season, although some expected fourth-quarter levels to
be lower than in the prior year. ■
Real Estate and Construction
Overall, construction and real estate activity was steady.
On the nonresidential side, builders continued to report
stable and strong demand. New projects came from
multiple sectors. Backlogs remained strong. One nonresidential contractor described current conditions as
“smooth sailing.” Nonresidential builders were confident
that demand would remain stable and strong through
2019 and into 2020.
On the residential side, homebuilders noted slightly
weaker demand, but real estate agents reported stronger
sales volume. Some homebuilders indicated that the
slowdown may have been because of homebuyers’ less
optimistic views of the broader economy. By contrast,
realtors said that sales volume increased because of a
typical seasonal pickup and lower mortgage interest
rates. They also reported that homeownership rates
were rising as low mortgage interest rates, stronger
household formation, and rising rents spurred demand
among first-time buyers.
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.clevelandfed.org/region/
D-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Richmond
The Beige Book ■ August 2019
Summary of Economic Activity
The Fifth District economy grew at a modest rate since our previous report. Manufacturers experienced a decline in
shipments and new orders, and continued to cite trade-related impacts on demand and raw materials costs. Trucking
companies also reported a modest decline in shipping volumes. Ports, on the other hand, saw robust activity stemming
from strong import volumes. Agriculture contacts gave mixed reports, largely due to differing weather conditions across
the region. Meanwhile, demand for nonfinancial services remained moderate. Several firms indicated that they were
holding back on new investment due to uncertainties with trade, the federal budget, and the availability of labor. Tourism
increased moderately. Auto sales were reportedly up and some hardware stores saw strong growth while other retailers
experienced slower sales and less buyer traffic. Residential real estate sales and new home construction increased
modestly, on balance. Commercial real estate contacts reported some increased leasing activity, low vacancy rates, and
stable to modestly increasing rental rates. Bankers generally indicated modestly increasing deposits and loan demand.
Labor markets remained tight and wage increases were modest. Prices continued to rise at a moderate rate.
Employment and Wages
Manufacturing
The demand for labor remained strong in recent weeks.
Staffing agents reported a high level of job postings;
however, finding qualified applicants continued to be
difficult across job categories and experience levels. One
staffing agency said that they had turned down some
clients because they believed the wages that were offered would not be high enough to attract quality workers. Looking ahead to the fall recruiting season, staffing
firms expect demand to increase across the board and
expect the usual seasonal uptick for temporary workers.
Wage increases remained modest.
Manufacturers in the Fifth District experienced sluggish
demand since our last report. Both shipments and new
orders declined, and many firms reported weaker local
business conditions. Several contacts cited tariff-related
effects on their businesses, including lower demand and
higher raw materials costs that they could not pass
through to customers. A Virginia manufacturer delayed
purchasing new equipment because of fear that business conditions would deteriorate in the coming months.
However, a South Carolina appliance manufacturer
reported strong sales and revenue growth and invested
in expansion projects.
Prices
Ports and Transportation
Price growth remained moderate for most finished goods
and services since our previous report. Manufacturers
generally indicated moderate growth in prices paid,
which narrowly outpaced growth in selling prices. Several firms continued to note that tariffs were a driving factor
behind some higher raw material prices, but lower prices
were reported for lumber, steel, copper, and trucking. In
addition, some retaliatory tariffs by China reportedly
drove down selling prices for U.S. scrap metal and paper. Service sector firms also reported moderate price
growth in both prices paid and prices received.
Fifth District ports saw strong growth in recent weeks
that met or exceeded expectations. Growth of imports
was particularly robust, as import volumes remained
above export volumes. One port continued on a strong
capital investment plan because of good conditions, but
another delayed investments in order to see how business would change in the coming months. A Fifth District
airport saw a slowdown in international cargo traffic.
Executives also expressed concerns about future trade
conditions and impending fuel price increases.
E-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
On balance, Fifth District trucking companies reported a
modest decline in shipping volumes in recent weeks.
Several firms attributed the drop in volumes to tariffrelated reductions of shipments and they expressed
concerns that these reductions would continue in coming months. One contact stated that the softer demand
put downward pressure on shipping prices. Another said
that they reduced staff and capital expenditures as a
result. In contrast, a Virginia firm reported an uptick in
volumes across a wide range of products and customers.
reported to be flat to down slightly. Vacancy rates remained low in most markets and rental rates were stable
to increasing modestly in all sub-markets. On the commercial sales side, brokers reported modest increases in
prices and sales. Industrial construction increased modestly across the District, while multifamily construction
and leasing remained steady.
Banking and Finance
Overall, loan demand rose modestly in recent weeks.
Residential mortgage demand was generally described
as stable to increasing modestly. Additionally, a few
lenders noted an increase in residential refinance loans.
On the commercial side, real estate loan demand
strengthened modestly. Business loan demand improved
slightly and automotive lending was reportedly flat compared to the previous report. Deposits grew modestly
and credit quality remained stable at strong levels.
Retail, Travel, and Tourism
Tourism in the Fifth District was moderate in recent
weeks. Hotels in Greenville and Charleston, South
Carolina, saw strong demand. In addition, an executive
at a Virginia resort reported strong demand but nevertheless had to close some pools due to a labor shortage, which was expected to be persistent. Conversely,
tourism in Asheville, North Carolina, and in Baltimore
was reportedly down, and an amusement park in North
Carolina attributed soft business to rainy weather.
Nonfinancial Services
Since our previous Beige Book report, demand for nonfinancial services remained moderate, overall. Professional and health services firms generally reported steady to
increasing demand. A few contacts, however, reported
that turnover and labor shortages were driving up recruiting costs and in some cases constraining growth. Educational institutions also indicated steady demand, and a
university president saw significant investment in computer science related programs in Northern Virginia. On
balance, services firms indicated modest business investment. A few firms said they were holding back or
being cautious due to uncertainties around trade, the
federal budget, and the availability of labor.
Fifth District retailers reported mixed business conditions
since our last report. A Virginia auto dealer reported
growth in sales of both new and used cars. A high end
clothing store, however, reduced inventory after several
weak months. Also, a shoe store reported a drop in both
sales and customer traffic. Hardware stores around the
District gave conflicting reports on demand, with some
seeing strong growth and others seeing a drop in business. Several retailers reported increased costs resulting from tariffs, which they were partially able to pass on
to consumers.
Agriculture
Real Estate and Construction
Weather effects varied across the district. For example,
a farmer in Maryland saw improvement this year due to
more favorable weather conditions and remarked that
other farmers in their area, except for dairy, seemed to
being doing well. In contrast, a farmer in South Carolina
said that the heat and lack of rain were hurting crops. In
general, trade issues and low commodity prices were
hurting farmers, including by lessening their ability to
repay loans and by reducing their desire to purchase
new equipment. ■
Residential real estate sales increased modestly, overall. Brokers reported steady levels of buyer traffic in
recent weeks. Existing home sales remained below year
-ago levels, in part due to low inventory levels. Meanwhile, agents reported steady rental demand for singlefamily homes. Home prices rose modestly, on balance,
while days on the market were generally unchanged at
low levels. New home construction and sales increased
modestly while speculative construction remained low
and was mostly for higher priced homes.
Commercial real estate brokers reported a moderate
rise in industrial leasing across the District. Office leasing was mostly unchanged in recent weeks, with the
exceptions of Charlotte, NC, and Washington, D.C.,
which experienced strong activity. Retail leasing was
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.richmondfed.org/research/regional_economy
E-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Atlanta
The Beige Book ■ August 2019
Summary of Economic Activity
Sixth District business contacts indicated that economic activity softened slightly during the reporting period. Many firms
noted persistent challenges with filling positions. Annual wage increases remained between 3-4 percent, on average,
and businesses across the District continued to report increased nonlabor input costs. Tourism activity during the summer season was mixed. Retail sales levels remained steady since the last report, and vehicle sales increased. Residential real estate sales and construction remained below year-ago levels, and home prices appreciated modestly. Commercial real estate contacts reported that leasing and sales activity remained steady throughout the District. Manufacturers noted a decrease in overall business activity since the previous report. Conditions at financial institutions were stable, although consumer loan growth continued to decline.
Employment and Wages
Prices
Reports of challenges finding, hiring, and retaining workers persisted for various labor market segments. Several
business contacts continued to share that their inability
to secure labor was holding back growth, encouraging
investments in automation, and pushing a few firms to
acquire competitors as a means of gaining labor resources. Employers continued to collaborate with workforce development organizations and schools to enhance curricula at vocational centers and to create pipelines of potential employees. A number of contacts expressed that hiring and retention costs, primarily those
associated with training programs, were rising. Employers continued to report that while they had increased
wages to attract and retain workers, efforts to improve
employee benefits offerings, enhance work arrangement
flexibility, eliminate some drug testing, and reduce experience requirements remained prominent attraction and
retention tools.
Businesses across the District continued to report modest increases in nonlabor input costs. Firms affected by
tariffs were typically successful in passing along increases and noted some success in holding on to margins.
The Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations survey
showed year-over-year unit costs were up 1.9 percent in
August. Survey respondents indicated they expect unit
costs to rise 2.0 percent over the next twelve months.
Consumer Spending and Tourism
While retail sales levels remained steady since the last
report, District retailers noted heightened uncertainty
among consumers due to the geo-political environment;
they also expressed concerns about whether this uncertainty will impact consumer confidence and spending
behavior during the upcoming holiday season. New
vehicles sales levels increased month-over-month in July
with light trucks and SUV units driving the increase;
sales of used vehicles also rose.
Annual wage increases, on average, remained between
3-4 percent, though several employers noted that, in
some cases, overall compensation was accelerating at a
fast clip as healthcare costs were rising. Wage growth
was concentrated in technology, healthcare, construction, and lower-skilled hourly positions. Business contacts continued to report that demographic shifts from
older experienced workers to younger inexperienced
workers were compressing salary budgets.
District tourism activity was mixed, and hospitality contacts reported an uptick in uncertainty since the last
report. On balance, the summer season was softer than
expected with a year-over-year decline in hotel occupancy and average daily rates in Louisiana and Florida.
Contacts in Alabama and Georgia reported strong leisure travel and business conference bookings.
F-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Construction and Real Estate
Banking and Finance
Although a healthy labor market and declining mortgage
rates sustained housing demand throughout the District,
sales remained below year-ago levels in several markets. Supply constraints, particularly in more affordable
price segments, remained a primary impediment to
stronger sales. Additionally, new home construction
remained down from year-ago levels. Although very few
markets experienced a decline in home values, the rate
of home price appreciation continued to moderate in
most markets as the pace of home sales slowed. Moderate price pressure coupled with declining mortgage rates
helped increase housing affordability.
Conditions at financial institutions were stable. Total loan
growth was steady although consumer loan growth
continued to decline. Competition for deposits continued
to put pressure on net interest margins along with lower
loan yields. Nonperforming assets remained near historic
lows.
Energy
Investment in pipeline infrastructure to transport liquefied
natural gas (LNG) and crude oil to Gulf Coast refiners
remained elevated, as firms endeavored to alleviate
product bottlenecks. Companies continued to pursue
development of LNG and crude export facilities along the
Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. In anticipation of Hurricane
Barry, offshore producers evacuated hundreds of drilling
platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, causing oil and gas
production to fall temporarily. A number of contacts
reaffirmed that while construction on industrial megaprojects, largely chemicals manufacturing and oil and gas
refining expansion, slowed in 2019, planned investment
along the Gulf Coast picked up during this reporting
period. Utilities contacts confirmed the acceleration in
industrial activity, observed via natural gas and petrochemical utilities segments. Utilities contacts also shared
that activity in renewables increased in recent months,
particularly solar energy facility installations across Florida, with many projected to be up and running in the 2020
to 2021 timeframe.
District commercial real estate contacts reported leasing
and sales activity remained stable since the previous
report. Overall, rents continued to grow and vacancy
trended downward at a modest pace. However, some
contacts noted slowing rent growth and greater concessions in the multifamily, retail, and office segments.
Despite increasing costs, contacts reported strong construction activity. Robust multifamily construction continued to dominate specific metro submarkets leading to
increased concerns of possible oversupply in a few
areas. Industry participants noted continuing strength in
the industrial sector. Contacts reported that capital for
most projects was readily available via banks and nonbank entities.
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Manufacturers reported a decrease in overall business
activity since the previous reporting period. A number of
firms indicated that new orders and production levels
declined, while finished inventory levels continued to
rise. Purchasing managers cited that supply delivery
times were slightly longer than normal and a few contacts indicated that tariffs were impacting business activity. Expectations for future production levels decreased,
with just over one quarter of contacts expecting higher
production levels over the next six months.
Agricultural conditions across the District were mixed.
Recent reports indicated much of the District was
drought-free although parts of Alabama, Georgia, the
Florida panhandle, and Tennessee experienced abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions. Some producers in Louisiana reported crop damage due to Hurricane
Barry. Average farm real estate values in the District
rose year-over-year with the exception of Georgia, where
values declined. On a year-over-year basis, prices paid
to farmers in June were up for corn and beef but down
for cotton, rice, soybeans, broilers, and eggs. ■
Transportation
District transportation contacts indicated that activity was
generally consistent with the previous report. Ports experienced increases in container traffic and bulk and break
bulk cargos. Logistics contacts reported continued
growth in e-commerce shipments. Trucking contacts,
however, reported weaker year-over-year freight volumes, attributed to slowing demand and excess capacity. Railroad contacts noted further declines in intermodal
shipments and total rail traffic compared with year earlier
levels. Air cargo contacts reported a continued deceleration in international cargo volume caused by slowing
global economic conditions and trade policy uncertainty.
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.frbatlanta.org/economy-matters/regional-economics
F-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago
The Beige Book ■ August 2019
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Seventh District increased slightly overall in July and early August, and contacts expected
growth to continue at a similar pace over the next 12 months. Consumer spending increased modestly; employment and
business spending increased slightly; and manufacturing and construction and real estate were little changed. Wages
and prices rose slightly. Financial conditions were little changed on balance. Farm income prospects improved some,
but remained poor for most agriculture sectors.
Employment and Wages
Consumer Spending
Employment increased slightly over the reporting period
and contacts expected a similar-sized increase over the
next 12 months. Hiring continued to be focused on professional and technical, sales, and production workers,
with a noticeable increase in the number of contacts
hiring professional and technical workers. As they have
for some time, contacts indicated that the labor market
was tight and that it was difficult to fill positions at all skill
levels. A staffing firm reported little change in billable
hours. Wages increased slightly overall. Contacts were
most likely to report wage increases for professional and
technical, administrative, and production workers. Many
firms reported rising benefits costs.
Consumer spending increased at a modest pace over
the reporting period. Nonauto retail sales were up modestly, with gains in the apparel and general merchandise
sectors but declines in the furniture and building materials sectors. Contacts noted that malls and department
stores continued to struggle. Back-to-school sales were
meeting expectations, with reports of particularly good
results for discount stores and big box supercenters.
Sales of new and used light vehicles increased modestly.
Business Spending
Business spending increased slightly in July and early
August. Retail inventories were generally at comfortable
levels. One contact reported that a few apparel and big
box retailers had ordered aggressively for the holiday
shopping season but that most retailers were placing
orders that were more conservative. Manufacturing
inventories were somewhat elevated overall. Capital
spending moved up slightly, and contacts expected that
pace to continue over the next 12 months. Outlays were
primarily for replacing industrial and IT equipment. There
was a noticeable decline in the number of contacts reporting spending for renovating structures. Contacts
continued to note that elevated uncertainty about the
future state of the economy and international trade policy
Prices
Prices rose slightly in July and early August, though
contacts expected prices to rise a bit faster over the next
12 months. Retail prices increased slightly. One contact
said that the effect on retail prices of the scheduled new
tariffs on Chinese imports wouldn’t be felt until early
2020. In contrast, another contact reported that some
retailers had already started implementing incremental
price increases to avoid a single, noticeable increase
when the tariffs came into effect. Producer prices rose
slightly, with contacts reporting falling freight costs and
slower increases in labor and materials costs.
G-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
was holding back investment and spurring efforts to
diversify supply chains. Demand for transportation services declined moderately. Commercial and industrial
energy demand increased slightly, led by increases in
manufacturing utilization.
little change in loan quality or standards. There were
reports of a small increase in mortgage refinancing due
to lower interest rates.
Agriculture
Farm income prospects improved some, but remained
poor for most agriculture sectors. Expectations for corn
and soybean output improved some but were still much
lower compared to a year ago, and the condition of crops
was highly variable. Crop development was as much as
a month behind normal because the wet spring delayed
planting. Prices for corn and soybeans declined. Egg
and dairy prices moved higher, while hog and cattle
prices moved lower. Contacts noted that another round
of payments from the Market Facilitation Program, along
with other government programs, were helping to make
up for low farm incomes. ■
Construction and Real Estate
Construction and real estate activity was little changed
over the reporting period. Residential construction was
flat, with increases in the multifamily sector offset by
decreases in luxury single-family building. Residential
real estate activity decreased modestly as tight inventories for starter homes continued to hold back sales.
Contacts continued to report that it was unprofitable to
build starter homes because of high costs. Contacts
indicated that the effect of lower mortgage rates on
home buying was weaker than usual. Nonresidential
construction increased slightly, and one contact reported
that bidding activity remained high. Like residential builders, nonresidential builders also noted that high costs
were slowing the rate of construction. Commercial real
estate activity was unchanged, with steady activity
across most sectors. Rents ticked up, while vacancies
and the availability of sublease space were flat.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing production was little changed in July and
early August, though contacts were generally satisfied
with the level of activity. Steel demand increased slightly.
Demand for heavy machinery declined some, though
one contact expected orders to increase during the
second half of the year, particularly from the mining
industry. Specialty metals manufacturers reported a
slight decline in orders, as decreased demand from the
auto and heavy equipment industries was only partially
offset by increased demand from the defense and aerospace industries. Orders for heavy trucks increased,
though contacts expected demand to slow through the
second half of the year. Manufacturers of construction
materials reported a modest increase in shipments. Auto
production was flat.
Banking and Finance
Financial conditions were little changed on balance over
the reporting period. Financial market participants attributed lower equity and higher bond prices to greater
uncertainty about the future state of the economy. Business loan demand rose modestly, with reports of increased equipment purchases and M&A activity but
lower commercial real estate activity. Loan quality remained solid across most sectors. Contacts said that
lending standards were little changed, but noted that
strong competition was creating pressure to loosen
them. Consumer loan demand increased slightly, with
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
chicagofed.org/cfsbc
G-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis
The Beige Book ■ August 2019
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic conditions have been mixed but generally unchanged since our previous report. Labor market conditions
remained tight as firms continued to note difficulties finding qualified workers. While nonlabor input costs increased
moderately, contacts reported only a slight uptick in prices charged to consumers. Construction activity improved slightly; however, some developers reported delaying projects due to economic uncertainty. In transportation, barge activity
continued to improve, while airport cargo traffic declined. Farming conditions remained strained. Across all industries,
the outlook among contacts turned slightly pessimistic. On net, a slightly greater share of contacts expect conditions
during the remainder of 2019 to be worse or somewhat worse than the same period in 2018.
selling prices has declined. Despite the reported softness in prices charged to consumers, input costs continue to increase at a moderate rate. On net, 32 percent of
contacts reported higher nonlabor costs.
Employment and Wages
Employment has grown slightly since our previous report. On net, 12 percent of survey respondents reported
that employment was higher than a year ago. Labor
market tightness has persisted throughout the District,
including in transportation, healthcare, and manufacturing. Firms reported increasing benefits, loosening hiring
requirements, and more aggressively marketing themselves to attract workers.
Business contacts continued to note the effects of tariffs
and the current trade negotiations with China on price
pressures, although the magnitude and direction of these
effects vary greatly by product. Agricultural commodity
prices generally remained depressed relative to the
same time last year and have fallen since our previous
report. On the other hand, several contacts noted moderate increases in the prices of steel, construction materials, and automobiles.
Wages have grown moderately since our previous report. On net, 40 percent of contacts reported that wages
were higher than a year ago; one contact in Little Rock
reported that new graduates applying to jobs at an engineering firm were expecting $10,000 to $15,000 more
than their offered starting salary. Numerous firms saw
rising wages as a consequence of the tight labor market,
with several businesses—due to their size, location, or
budget—especially struggling to keep up with wage
gains and attract potential employees.
Consumer Spending
Reports from general retailers and auto dealers indicate
consumer activity has been mixed since our previous
report. July real sales tax collections increased in Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky, but decreased in Arkansas relative to a year ago. Most general retailers and
auto dealers reported that sales have increased since
the same time last year, in line with expectations. However, District auto dealers noted seeing customers purchase more used and low-end vehicles, and their outlook
for the rest of 2019 has turned pessimistic. Many cited
concerns about higher new vehicle prices, elevated
interest rates, and trade uncertainty.
Prices
Prices have increased slightly since our previous report.
On net, 13 percent of contacts reported that prices
charged to consumers increased in the current quarter
relative to the same time last year. This is the fourth
consecutive quarter in which the share reporting higher
H-1
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Manufacturing
Commercial real estate activity has improved slightly
since our previous report. Survey respondents reported
a slight increase in year-over-year demand for office and
industrial space and a modest decrease in demand for
retail space. Demand for multifamily properties was
unchanged.
Manufacturing activity has been mixed since our previous report. A majority of contacts reported declines in
production, new orders, and capacity utilization relative
to one year ago. Respondents have noted slowdowns in
the growth of manufacturing activity over the past few
quarterly surveys, but this is the first time that they have
reported declines for all three of these measures since
2016. Multiple contacts reported that tariffs and general
uncertainty with regard to the ongoing trade negotiations
with China contributed to declines in activity. On net,
most contacts expect manufacturing conditions to stay at
a similar level next quarter. However, several local manufacturing firms across a variety of industries, including
automotive and food manufacturing, recently announced
plans to expand operations. Likewise, other surveybased indexes indicate that activity in Arkansas and
Missouri increased at a modest pace from one month
earlier, with new orders and production increasing in
both states.
Commercial construction activity improved slightly. Survey respondents reported healthy demand for construction of industrial property types and stated that several
projects are lined up for the next few months. However,
there are some reports of developers deferring future
projects due to recent economic uncertainty. Local contacts continued to report labor shortages.
Banking and Finance
Overall loan demand in the District has weakened slightly since our previous report. Demand for mortgages
slightly increased relative to one year ago, while demand
for auto loans and commercial and industrial loans fell
modestly. Bankers expect little to no change to overall
loan demand in the fourth quarter. Credit standards
tightened slightly compared with year-ago levels. Delinquencies fell slightly on a year-over-year basis and are
expected to continue declining into the fourth quarter.
Nonfinancial Services
Activity in the services sector has been mixed since our
previous report. The number of posted vacancies for
nonfinancial services occupations increased from June
to July in St. Louis but decreased in Louisville and Memphis. Transportation activity was mixed. Cargo traffic at
District airports decreased slightly year over year, which
some contacts attributed to a general slowdown in global
trade. However, passenger traffic remained above yearago levels. Barge traffic continued to improve from the
holdup of business caused by the severe flooding in the
spring, and contacts expect a rebound of activity through
the rest of the year.
Agriculture and Natural Resources
District agriculture conditions were down modestly from
the previous reporting period. Compared with mid-July,
the percentages of cotton and rice rated fair or better
declined modestly, while those for corn and soybeans
declined slightly. Relative to the previous year, the percentage of all four crops rated fair or better declined
moderately. District contacts indicated that farming conditions remained strained due to low commodity prices
and lingering effects from the unusually wet weather and
flooding in the spring. New government assistance to
farmers is expected to provide some short-term alleviation.
Real Estate and Construction
Residential real estate activity has been stable since our
previous report. Seasonally adjusted home sales increased modestly across the four largest MSAs in the
District. Conversely, a slight majority of contacts reported
weaker demand for single-family homes relative to a
year ago, and nearly 40 percent noted that third-quarter
sales have fallen short of expectations. Contacts continued to report inventory shortages, particularly for lowerend homes.
Natural resource extraction conditions rose slightly from
June to July, with seasonally adjusted coal production
increasing 1.8 percent. Additionally, July production was
0.8 percent above that of a year ago. ■
Residential construction activity increased slightly. There
was a slight increase in June permit activity across the
four largest MSAs in the District. On net, 14 percent of
respondents reported higher construction activity relative
to the same time last year, and 7 percent expect continued growth in the next quarter.
For more information about District economic conditions, visit:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/regecon/
H-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Minneapolis
The Beige Book ■ August 2019
Summary of Economic Activity
Ninth District economic activity was stable since the previous report. Employment was flat, while wage pressures were
moderate and price pressures remained modest overall. The District economy saw growth in construction, real estate,
and manufacturing. Consumer spending was flat while tourism activity was mixed. Energy activity decreased while
agricultural conditions remained weak.
Wage pressures varied, but were moderate overall. Twothirds of large Minnesota employers responding to an ad
hoc poll said that wages grew by less than 3 percent
over the last 12 months, and wage expectations for the
coming 12 months were even more modest. However, in
Montana, a slight majority of poll respondents said
wages grew by more than 3 percent, including nearly
one in five that saw increases of more than 5 percent.
But expectations for future wage increases were slightly
lower. Staffing contacts cited a wide range of wage
increases for available jobs; a Minnesota contact noted
that average wages for jobs across more than a dozen
offices in the District rose by less than 2 percent over the
last 12 months. However, two other staffing contacts
reported wage increases of 8 percent or more.
Employment and Wages
Employment was flat since the last report, with some
continuing signs of softness. Hiring demand remained
healthy, according to recent ad hoc polls of employers in
Minnesota and Montana. A Montana insurance contact
said that renewals for workers’ compensation policies
showed that firms widely expected higher employment
levels over the coming year. July job postings were 7
and 5 percent higher, respectively, in North and South
Dakota compared with a year earlier. Job postings rose
slightly in Montana, but fell slightly for Minnesota and
Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Labor availability continued
to constrain hiring, and turnover remained problematic
for many firms. A northern Wisconsin contact said, “It’s
hard to find a business that is not looking for more
employees,” and a few employers said they will have to
close or move if workers cannot be found. There were
some notable signs of softness, however. July
employment fell slightly in most District states (and
overall) compared with June levels. Initial unemployment
insurance claims saw a 10 percent uptick over the most
recent six-week period (ending in early August)
compared with a year earlier; continuing claims also rose
slightly. Staffing contacts reported that recent job orders
were mixed, with declines seen in Minnesota and
Wisconsin offices. But most staffing contacts predicted
strong third-quarter orders in part because businesses
would soon be losing many student workers once school
began.
Prices
Price pressures remained modest overall since the
previous reporting period. A majority of respondents to a
survey of Montana businesses reported having
increased prices charged to customers by less than 2
percent over the past year, and a larger proportion
expected to increase prices in the same range over the
coming year. Input price pressures were slightly greater,
according to respondents. Contacts in the construction
sector continued to report brisk input price increases.
Retail fuel prices in District states as of mid-August were
modestly lower relative to the previous reporting period.
Prices received by farmers in June increased from a
year earlier for corn, hay, cattle, hogs, milk, and turkeys,
I-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
while prices for wheat, soybeans, eggs, and chickens
decreased.
earlier, but other large District cities saw mixed
permitting activity.
Consumer Spending
Commercial real estate grew modestly. In MinneapolisSt. Paul, industrial property continued to see healthy
demand, falling vacancy rates, and strong new
development. Office vacancy rates rose overall, but
asking rents have risen in some submarkets due to
strong demand from the tech sector. Retail vacancies
were stable overall despite continued pressure on
traditional retailers. However, average lease rates and
property sales were lower, and new construction hit a
multi-year low. In Sioux Falls, S.D., office and retail
vacancy rates have risen, while the industrial vacancy
rate was stable at very low levels. Residential real estate
grew moderately. Closed home sales for July grew in
most markets compared with a year earlier, helped by
lower mortgage rates. Great Falls, Mont., and Grand
Forks, N.D., saw particularly strong July sales, while
statewide sales in Minnesota rose 4 percent.
Consumer spending was flat overall since the last report.
Gross sales in South Dakota and Wisconsin in July were
flat year-over-year; in Wisconsin, that represented a
modest rebound from slower June sales. Sales tax
collections in North Dakota in July rose by about 15
percent compared with a year earlier. Vehicle sales in
the western part of the District were higher in July, and a
dealer contact said he expected August and September
sales to be good. But recreational and powersport
vehicle sales across the District have been lower,
according to industry sources.
Tourism offered a mixed bag. Hotel occupancy in July
saw a moderate bump over last year in Minnesota and
Montana. A Montana lodging contact said it has been a
“normal” tourism season overall, but added that “for the
first time in a while, we needed to discount room rates to
fill rooms.” A Minnesota resort contact said bookings
were about 2 percent higher this season compared with
last year, and guest spending was higher. However,
visitation to six of the eight largest national parks in the
District was down in July and year-to-date, with several
seeing double-digit declines. Attendance at state fairs
was higher this year in Montana but lower in North
Dakota. Traffic to the annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in
South Dakota was down modestly compared with last
year. Contacts also noted that labor constraints have
meant shorter operating hours for some businesses.
Manufacturing
District manufacturing activity grew slightly, with some
signs of softening. An index of manufacturing conditions
indicated increased activity in July compared with a
month earlier in Minnesota and the Dakotas. A medicaldevice producer announced a large expansion at a
Minnesota facility. Two pet food manufacturers
announced new plants in Minnesota. Several industry
contacts reported a tight supply of workers as the main
constraint on growth. However, other contacts noted
some signs of softening, particularly in international
demand. A producer of capital equipment noted slowing
in the pace of new orders and a decline in order backlog.
Construction and Real Estate
Commercial construction grew strongly since the last
report. The value of construction starts across the
District saw a healthy rise in July compared with a year
earlier, continuing an uptick seen in June. A construction
project database indicated that the number of new and
active projects in the District through early August was
slightly higher than or on par with last year. A contact in
northern Wisconsin noted strong activity in the DuluthSuperior region, particularly in healthcare and energy. A
Minnesota banker expected “continued strong demand”
for new hotel and multi-family construction lending.
Another contact in the state said, “All I hear is that
(construction companies) are incredibly busy. There’s so
much work out there.” Contacts said some of the
increase in activity was due to persistent spring rains
and flooding, which pushed more work into summer
months. Minneapolis-St. Paul saw a healthy increase in
single-family permits in July compared with a year
Agriculture, Energy, and Natural Resources
District agricultural conditions remained weak. Recent
estimates lowered the planted acreage and expected
production for corn, soybean, and spring wheat in District
states compared with last year, due in part to heavy
rains and flooding. Respondents to the Minneapolis
Fed’s second-quarter (July) survey of agricultural credit
conditions indicated that farm income and capital
spending decreased relative to a year earlier, with further
declines expected for the coming three months.
However, some contacts expressed optimism about a
recent rally in commodity prices. District oil and gas
exploration activity as of mid-August was down relative
to the previous report. District iron ore mines continued
to operate at near-capacity; a Minnesota facility finished
a $100 million equipment upgrade that would allow it to
produce higher-grade ore. ■
I-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Kansas City
The Beige Book ■ August 2019
Summary of Economic Activity
Tenth District economic activity edged up in July and early August, led by increases in consumer spending, wholesale
trade and professional and high-tech services. Consumer spending rose modestly, including gains in retail, auto, restaurant and tourism sales. Manufacturing activity fell slightly, and a majority of contacts expected their businesses to be
negatively affected by the latest round of U.S. tariffs on China. District real estate activity rose, but the pace of growth in
the residential real estate and construction sectors softened. Energy activity held steady, but expectations for future
activity eased. District agricultural conditions remained weak, and commodity prices fell with higher-than-anticipated
production estimates and ongoing trade disputes. Loan demand increased modestly and loan quality improved, while
deposits fell slightly. Employment rose, but contacts in several sectors noted a slowdown in job gains as labor shortages
persisted. Wages were mixed across sectors, and a majority of respondents expected the pace of wage growth to remain the same or accelerate in 2020. Input prices rose slightly, while selling prices continued to hold steady.
Employment and Wages
modestly, and moderate increases were anticipated in
the months ahead. Respondents in the restaurant sector
noted modestly higher input prices and flat selling prices,
with both prices strongly above year-ago levels. Manufacturing and transportation contacts reported steady
input prices and selling prices since the previous survey
period and expected modest growth in the months
ahead. Unlike other sectors who all reported higher
prices than a year ago, selling prices in the construction
supply sector were modestly lower than both the previous survey period and year-ago levels.
District employment rose, and employee hours held
steady since the previous survey period. Compared to a
year ago, contacts reported that employment gains were
strongest in the real estate, health services and retail
trade sectors. However, the pace of job gains had
slowed in several sectors including manufacturing, energy, transportation, tourism and auto sales in recent
months. Looking ahead, contacts expected employment
to increase slightly and employee hours to remain flat in
the next few months.
Consumer Spending
A majority of contacts continued to report labor shortages across all skill levels. Specifically, contacts noted
shortages for hourly retail and food-services positions,
truck drivers, auto technicians, physicians, pilots and IT
personnel. Wages were mixed across industries as
services sector wages increased modestly since the
previous survey period, while manufacturing wages held
steady. A majority of respondents expected wage gains
in 2020 to equal or exceed those in 2019.
Consumer spending increased modestly compared to
the previous survey period and year-ago levels, and
contacts expected slight gains in the coming autumn
months. Retail sales continued to rise moderately in July
and early August, and contacts anticipated sales to
increase modestly moving forward. Auto sales improved,
rising slightly higher than the previous survey period
after declining earlier this summer. Auto contacts also
expected moderately stronger sales in the months
ahead. Trucks and SUVs sold well, while sedans sold
poorly. Restaurant and tourism sales grew modestly
compared to the previous survey period and were above
year-ago levels. However, both sectors anticipated modest declines in the coming months.
Prices
Input prices rose slightly in July and early August, while
selling prices continued to hold steady. However, both
input and selling prices were moderately higher than a
year ago, and contacts expected modest gains moving
forward. In the retail sector, selling and input prices rose
J-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity
Banking
Manufacturing activity declined slightly in July and early
August, but activity remained slightly above year-ago
levels. Factory production and shipments edged down
compared to the previous survey period at both durable
and non-durable goods plants, while new orders declined slightly. Manufacturers anticipated modest increases in production, shipments and new orders in the
coming months. Capital spending was modestly above
year-ago levels, and slight increases were expected in
the months ahead. However, a majority of respondents
expected the most recent round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods to negatively affect their businesses.
Bankers reported a modest increase in overall loan
demand, with somewhat mixed reports across categories. Respondents indicated a strong increase in the
demand for residential real estate loans and a modest
increase in demand for consumer installment loans.
Demand for commercial real estate loans held steady,
while demand for commercial and industrial loans and
agricultural loans declined. Bankers indicated a modest
improvement in loan quality compared to a year ago and
expected a slight improvement in loan quality over the
next six months. Credit standards remained largely
unchanged in all major loan categories, and deposit
levels decreased slightly.
Outside of manufacturing, other business contacts reported mixed sales since the previous survey period.
Firms in the transportation sector experienced modestly
lower sales, while sales increased strongly in the wholesale trade sector and slightly in the professional and high
-tech services sector. In the coming months, contacts in
the professional, high-tech and wholesale trade sectors
expected sales to expand moderately and transportation
sector contacts anticipated modest increases.
Energy
Overall District energy activity held steady compared
with the previous survey period, but expectations for
future activity continued to ease somewhat. The number
of active oil and gas rigs continued to edge down, primarily driven by a drop in Oklahoma rigs, while drilling in
Colorado and Wyoming moved higher since the last
survey period. District oil production levels continued to
expand in recent months and remained above levels
from a year ago. Natural gas production also remained
at high levels. Oil prices inched down while natural gas
prices continued to decline. Regional firms expected less
drilling and business activity in the next six months.
Real Estate and Construction
District real estate activity continued to expand, but at a
slower pace than the last survey period as growth in the
residential real estate sector moderated. Residential
home sales and inventories rose, but sales were below
year-ago levels. Inventories were expected to continue
to increase slightly, while sales were expected to decrease in the months ahead. Residential real estate
contacts noted that sales of low- and medium-priced
homes continued to outpace sales of higher-priced
homes. Home prices continued to fall modestly since the
previous survey period, but remained higher than a year
ago. Residential construction activity edged down and
was similar to year-ago levels. Commercial real estate
activity continued to expand at a modest pace as absorption, completions, construction underway, sales and
prices rose, while vacancy rates fell. Respondents in the
commercial real estate sector projected similar growth in
the months ahead.
Agriculture
The Tenth District farm economy remained weak, and
commodity prices declined in response to supply expectations and trade uncertainty. Regional contacts reported
weak farm income in the most recent survey period, but
expected slower deterioration in the coming months.
Less pessimistic expectations in the second quarter
were supported by increases in crop prices earlier in the
year. However, sharp declines in crop and livestock
prices in August weighed on farm revenues. Hog and
soybean prices declined moderately alongside ongoing
trade disputes, and cattle prices decreased sharply
following a substantial disruption at a major beef processing facility located in the District. Corn and wheat
prices also declined sharply following higher-thananticipated production estimates. ■
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.KansasCityFed.org/Research/RegionalEconomy
J-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Dallas
The Beige Book ■ August 2019
Summary of Economic Activity
Moderate expansion continued in the Eleventh District economy. Output growth in manufacturing strengthened, and
expansion in the service sector was strong in July but eased in August. Home sales rose, and loan volumes expanded
albeit at a slower pace. Retail sales were flat and drilling activity continued to decline. Agricultural conditions deteriorated due to hot and dry weather. Employment growth was solid and wage pressures remained elevated. Selling prices
rose modestly, as firms’ ability to pass through cost increases remained limited. Outlooks improved slightly in manufacturing but softened in the service, energy, and agricultural sectors, with uncertainty surrounding trade policy, tariffs,
stock market volatility, and slowing global growth weighing on business sentiment.
that softening global demand growth and lower oil prices
were putting downward pressure on an array of product
prices.
Employment and Wages
Employment expanded at a solid pace. A lack of qualified candidates continued to challenge businesses
across sectors and skill levels, but shortages remained
most severe for mid-skilled positions. Construction craft
labor shortages were reportedly less acute, though food
services firms said they were still struggling to find workers. Airlines and energy firms’ headcounts were stable,
with hiring limited to certain skill sets. Several firms
noted that retention of employees was a challenge as
well.
Manufacturing
Expansion in the manufacturing sector continued at a
moderate pace in July, but reports of August activity
showed a sizeable and broad-based pickup in output
growth. Fabricated metals and construction-related
manufacturing in particular saw notable strength among
durables. Demand growth in nondurables was led by
food manufacturing. Chemical production growth slowed
in part due to softening global demand. Gulf Coast refinery utilization remained healthy on a seasonally adjusted
basis.
Wage pressures remained elevated. Many respondents
said they were struggling to fill positions partly because
applicants were looking for higher pay than was offered.
Outlooks turned positive, though uncertainty remained
elevated as trade negotiations and tariffs continued to
affect business sentiment.
Prices
Input price pressures were moderate in the service and
manufacturing sectors, but ticked up in retail. Selling
prices dipped in manufacturing and increases were
generally modest in services, as firms’ ability to pass
through higher costs to customers remained constrained.
About 60 percent of firms responding to supplemental
questions in the August Texas Business Outlook Surveys said they were able to pass on at least some cost
increases, but this share was down from 76 percent in
December. Refiners and chemical producers indicated
Retail Sales
Retailers continued to note weak activity, with sales flat
over the reporting period. Auto demand, including used
car sales, strengthened, but weakness prevailed in some
seasonal segments. Outlooks remained pessimistic and
highly uncertain, primarily driven by tariffs and trade
tensions, though one contact noted interest rate uncertainty as a factor as well.
K-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Nonfinancial Services
categories. Commercial and residential real estate lending expanded at a similar pace, but commercial and
industrial loan volumes dipped and consumer loans were
flat over the reporting period. Credit standards continued
to tighten modestly. The cost of funds ticked up, and net
interest margins fell further. Outlooks were less optimistic, as expectations of lower loan demand, trade policy
uncertainty, and financial market volatility weighed on
sentiment.
Nonfinancial services activity expanded strongly in July
but growth eased in August. Expansion during the reporting period was led by growth in professional and
technical services. Most staffing services companies
continued to experience year-over-year demand increases. A few that noted softness said it was in part due to
heightened uncertainty among clients. Activity in the
transportation and warehousing sector was mixed, although shipments of select commodities such as steel
and petroleum products rose strongly. Airlines cited
healthy passenger demand, with strength in domestic
business and leisure segments. Revenues also expanded in the accommodation and food services and health
services industries, and one contact said that increased
wait times and security at the Texas-Mexico border had
reduced the number of Mexican nationals visiting San
Antonio.
Energy
Drilling activity in the Eleventh District slipped further as
firms continued to rein in spending and orders for new
equipment. However, the number of wells being brought
into production increased. International demand for oil
field services was a bright spot, with excess capacity
being absorbed due to improved foreign offshore drilling
and spending. Outlooks were more pessimistic as a
result of reduced expectations for global economic
growth.
Service-sector outlooks were lackluster, with uncertainty
surrounding trade policy, stock market volatility, slowing
global growth, and expectations of a looming U.S. recession were a drag on expectations.
Agriculture
Higher temperatures and a lack of rainfall negatively
impacted the agriculture sector over the past six weeks,
with drought conditions creeping back in to parts of the
district. Dryland grain crops were largely well established
before weather conditions deteriorated, so solid yields
were expected. Irrigated crops planted later in the growing season were feeling more of the negative impact of
the weather. Most agricultural commodity prices moved
down over the reporting period, prompting some pessimism among agricultural producers. ■
Construction and Real Estate
Homes sales rose during the reporting period. Existinghome sales were generally strong in July, particularly in
Houston, and new-home sales were characterized as
stable to solid as well. However, a few contacts noted
that activity was not as robust as expected given low
mortgage rates. Lot development and single-family construction was still being affected, particularly in Dallas–
Fort Worth, by earlier weather-related delays. Deal flow
volumes were down, as builders remained cautious
about signing on new lot agreements. A few contacts
mentioned that the build-to-rent (single-family rental)
market was gaining traction. Outlooks stayed optimistic
with builders generally on plan for 2019.
Apartment demand remained steady, supporting occupancy and rent growth in most major metros. Rents were
flat in Houston, but contacts expect them to firm up by
year end. A contact said that high land and construction
costs were making it difficult to pencil new deals.
Reports on the office market indicated leasing was still
most active for new class A space. Industrial demand
stayed strong and generally in lockstep with the high
volume of deliveries. Industrial construction continued to
be elevated.
Financial Services
Loan volumes rose at a slower pace compared with the
previous reporting period, with growth mixed across
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.dallasfed.org/research/texas
K-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
San Francisco
The Beige Book ■ August 2019
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Twelfth District continued to expand at a moderate pace during the reporting period of early July
through mid-August. The labor market remained tight, characterized by modest employment growth and moderate wage
growth. Price inflation was largely stable. Sales of retail goods increased notably, as did activity in consumer and business services. The manufacturing and agricultural sectors slowed somewhat. Both residential and commercial real
estate market activity expanded moderately. Lending grew further.
Employment and Wages
positive adjustments to starting wages due to new minimum wage laws and tight competition for entry-level
workers. Some employers noted their employees’ preferences for expanded benefits packages over higher wages including signing bonuses, flexible work arrangements, paid time off, and varied health insurance options.
The labor market remained tight, and employment
growth was modest. Across the District, some contacts
reported steady growth in employment, especially in
urban areas. Others cited little change in employment,
mostly due to continued difficulties in finding qualified
workers. Information technology and financial sector
positions were especially hard to fill. A contact in the
payment-processing sector noted that job openings
remained unfilled for longer than they did a year ago.
Some employers suggested that shortages of qualified
workers were a major factor behind a slowdown in their
business expansion plans. A large provider of shipping
and logistics services mentioned a restructuring-driven
hiring freeze for managerial positions, as well as seasonal layoffs. A provider of agricultural transportation services noted that they were only hiring replacements for
departed workers.
Prices
Price inflation was largely stable on balance. Many businesses reported that brisk competition limited their ability
to raise selling prices. Some input costs increased due to
higher tariffs, though an appreciation of the dollar helped
offset some of the higher import costs. Across the District, higher import costs have raised concerns over
narrower profit margins. In some sectors such as lumber
and natural gas, selling prices remained subdued. In
other sectors, prices picked up somewhat. Wholesalers
in California reported little resistance to price increases,
and an online payment processer mentioned higher
market prices for finished goods. In Seattle, a restaurateur reported upward price pressures from food and
beverage vendors. Prices for agricultural goods remained stable overall, with slightly higher prices reported
for hay, milk, and grapes. Market prices for beef, poultry,
and pork softened as well as those for utilities.
Wage growth rose further over the reporting period due
to brisk competition for qualified workers across sectors.
Apart from Alaska, wages for construction workers increased solidly in the District due to a pickup in building
activity. Wages in the financial services and hospitality
sectors also continued to increase at a solid pace, although one banker in Oregon suggested that wage increases were more subdued. Hourly rates for delivery
drivers at a major shipping and logistics business in
California rose modestly. Businesses reported continued
Retail Trade and Services
Sales of non-auto retail goods increased notably. Con-
L-1
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
tacts across the District mentioned that retail conditions
remained strong, especially in areas where population
and income trends are favorable. In the Mountain West,
retailers reported a brisk pickup in sales over the summer despite businesses offering lower discounts when
compared to the previous year. In Alaska, retail sales
were down statewide. E-commerce outlets continued to
highlight robust sales growth both domestically and
internationally. Demand for vehicles weakened over the
reporting period, attributed to general unease in the
customer base regarding the economic outlook.
in nuts and grapes markets. Trade tensions, a strong
dollar, and a less optimistic economic outlook were
identified as the main factors behind slower overall demand. Producers of beef, poultry, and pork products
sought alternative markets after further escalation of
trade tensions with China. Fruit and wheat farmers in the
Pacific Northwest noted a decline in their export business. Lumber producers reported weakening demand for
their products nationally. A contact in Central California
observed stable prices but lower demand for farmland. In
the utilities sector, electricity sales and excess capacity
remained on par with levels earlier in the year.
Activity in the consumer and business services sectors
increased notably. Demand for shipping and logistics
services rose rapidly, and industry projections remained
favorable. A major service provider in the District noted
increased investment in information technology for logistics services as well as brisk growth in shipping of health
-care products. A transportation service provider noted
high demand for train car space. Restaurants in the
Pacific Northwest reported strong sales growth, as did
hotel operators in the Mountain West. A contact in Hawaii also reported moderate growth in the hospitality
sector but mentioned some concerns regarding future
tourist inflows.
Real Estate and Construction
Demand for residential real estate grew further. Construction activity and demand for single- and multi-family
homes remained elevated throughout the District, aided
by low interest rates and strong employment. One notable exception was Alaska where public projects dominated. Supply continued to be somewhat constrained by
worker shortages, though one contact in the Mountain
West noted increased availability of skilled workers
coming from other regions.
On net, selling prices accelerated, and permit issuance
picked up. Some local governments in California and
Hawaii have started considering bans on vacation home
ownership as a possible response to increased affordability concerns. In some areas, time-on-the-market increased and prices plateaued.
Manufacturing
Activity in the manufacturing sector slowed somewhat. A
chip manufacturer in the Mountain West reported continued worldwide softening of orders. In the Pacific Northwest, wood product manufacturers noted faltering demand. An energy supplier mentioned lower demand for
natural gas from various industrial customers ranging
from asphalt and concrete producers to paper makers.
Production slowed in a large aerospace business in the
Pacific Northwest. On the other hand, contacts in the
semiconductors and metals-producing sectors reported
strong output and a positive outlook.
Activity in commercial real estate markets expanded
moderately. In the Pacific Northwest and the Mountain
West, construction activity was strong, vacancy rates
were low, and rental rates remained elevated. Commercial permitting in Washington was in line with last year’s
numbers, and contacts highlighted that there are many
projects in the pipeline in Oregon and California.
Financial Institutions
Agriculture and Resource-Related Industries
Lending activity grew further over the reporting period.
Contacts across the District noted healthy demand for
loans, supported by low interest rates and robust commercial construction activity. Low mortgage rates
spurred refinancing activity, though a few lenders expressed concerns over increasing downward pressures
on net interest margins. Loan quality and capital levels
remained solid, though a contact in California observed
some loosening of lending standards. Competition remained tight but was somewhat less brisk for loans
relative to deposits in the current reporting period. ■
Activity slowed somewhat in the agricultural sector.
Inclement weather negatively affected both the timing
and yield of harvests across different states. Intense
storms halved cherry crops and delayed tomato and
grain harvests. Unseasonably high temperatures depressed California almond yields, though their impact
was somewhat offset by an increase in the number of
almond trees in production.
Demand for agricultural products generally softened,
both externally and domestically with notable exceptions
L-2
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (2019, September 17). Beige Book. Beige Book, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/beige_book_20190918
@misc{wtfs_beige_book_20190918,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Beige Book},
year = {2019},
month = {Sep},
howpublished = {Beige Book, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/beige_book_20190918},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}