Beige Book
For use at 2:00 PM EST
Wednesday
January 15, 2020
The Beige Book
Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions
By Federal Reserve District
January 2020
Federal Reserve Districts
Minneapolis
Boston
Chicago
New York
Cleveland
Philadelphia
San Francisco
Kansas City
St. Louis
Richmond
Atlanta
Dallas
Alaska and Hawaii
are part of the
San Francisco District.
The System serves commonwealths and territories as follows: the New York Bank serves the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands; the San Francisco Bank serves American Samoa, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.
National Summary
Boston
1
A-1
First District
New York
B-1
Second District
Philadelphia
C-1
Third District
Cleveland
D-1
E-1
Fifth District
Atlanta
F-1
Sixth District
Chicago
G-1
Seventh District
St. Louis
H-1
Eighth District
Minneapolis
The Beige Book is a Federal Reserve System publication about current
economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. It characterizes regional economic conditions and prospects based on a variety
of mostly qualitative information, gathered directly from District
sources.
The qualitative nature of the Beige Book creates an opportunity to
characterize dynamics and identify emerging trends in the economy
that may not be readily apparent in the available economic data. Because this information is collected from a wide range of business and
community contacts through a variety of formal and informal methods,
the Beige Book can complement other forms of regional information
gathering.
How is the information collected?
Fourth District
Richmond
What is The Beige Book?
Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current
economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and
Branch directors, plus phone and in-person interviews with and online
questionnaires completed by businesses, community contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources.
How is the information used?
The anecdotal information collected in the Beige Book supplements the
data and analysis used by Federal Reserve economists and staff to
assess economic conditions in the Federal Reserve Districts. This
information enables comparison of economic conditions in different
parts of the country, which can be helpful for assessing the outlook for
the national economy. The Beige Book also serves as a regular summary of the Federal Reserve System’s efforts to listen to businesses
and community organizations.
I-1
Ninth District
Kansas City
J-1
Tenth District
Dallas
K-1
Eleventh District
San Francisco
Twelfth District
L-1
This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
based on information collected on or before January 6, 2020. This
document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the
Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of
Federal Reserve officials.
National Summary
The Beige Book ■ January 2020
Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity generally continued to expand modestly in the final six weeks of 2019. The Dallas and Richmond
Districts noted above-average growth, while Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Kansas City reported sub-par growth. Consumer spending grew at a modest to moderate pace, with a number of Districts noting some pickup from the prior
reporting period. On balance, holiday sales were said to be solid, with several Districts noting the growing importance
of online shopping. Vehicle sales generally expanded moderately, though a handful of Districts reported flat sales.
Tourism was mixed, with growth reported in the eastern seaboard Districts but activity little changed in the Midwest and
West. Manufacturing activity was essentially flat in most Districts, as in the previous report. Business in nonfinancial
services was mixed but, on balance, growing modestly. Transportation activity was also mixed across Districts, with a
majority reporting flat to weaker activity. Banks mostly characterized loan volume as steady to expanding moderately.
Home sales trends varied widely across Districts but were flat overall, while residential rental markets strengthened.
Some Districts pointed to low inventories as restraining home sales. New residential construction expanded modestly.
Commercial real estate activity varied substantially across Districts. Agricultural conditions were little changed, as was
activity in the energy sector. In many Districts, tariffs and trade uncertainty continued to weigh on some businesses.
Expectations for the near-term outlook remained modestly favorable across the nation.
Employment and Wages
Employment was steady to rising modestly in most Districts, while labor markets remained tight throughout the nation.
Most Districts cited widespread labor shortages as a factor constraining job growth, and, in a few cases, business
expansion. A few Districts noted brisk demand for professional, technical, and managerial workers. A number of Districts reported job cuts or reduced hiring among manufacturers, and there were scattered reports of job cuts in the
transportation and energy sectors. Wage growth was characterized as modest or moderate in most Districts—similar to
the prior reporting period—and there were scattered reports of wage increases from year-end hikes in minimum wages.
A few Districts also noted the use of benefits, incentives, training programs, and automation to reduce vacancies.
Prices
Prices continued to rise at a modest pace during the reporting period, as did input costs. A number of Districts reported
that retail selling prices rose at a slightly faster, but still subdued, pace. A few Districts indicated that some businesses
were passing along tariff costs to consumers—mostly in retail but also in construction. Some Districts noted that restaurants were being pressured by rising food prices. There were scattered reports of declining prices in some manufacturing industries, as well as in the energy sector. Those Districts reporting on price expectations indicated that prices were
expected to continue to rise in the months ahead.
Highlights by Federal Reserve District
Boston
New York
Economic activity expanded at a modest to moderate
pace in the closing weeks of 2019. Software and IT
services firms cited relatively strong growth; manufacturers and retailers also reported revenue increases from a
year earlier. Residential real estate markets saw continued inventory shortages. Labor market tightness persisted. Outlooks were positive.
The regional economy expanded at a modest pace. The
labor market remained tight, though hiring activity was
subdued and wages grew modestly. Manufacturing
activity picked up. Loan demand grew, though financial
sector contacts more broadly reported weakening activity. Both input prices and selling prices continued to rise
modestly.
1
National Summary
Philadelphia
St. Louis
On balance, business activity slowed to a slight pace of
growth during the current Beige Book period. Labor
markets remained tight throughout the District—slowing
employment growth and raising wage pressure. Still,
price increases remained modest. Most firms expressed
cautious optimism.
Reports from contacts indicate that economic conditions
have slightly improved since our previous report. St.
Louis region general retailers had mixed accounts of
holiday sales. Area tourism and hospitality contacts
generally cited that business activity met expectations
over the holiday season.
Cleveland
Minneapolis
The Fourth District economy continued to expand at a
modest pace as a result of continuing strength in some
key sectors and waning headwinds from manufacturing
and freight. Retailers reported better-than-expected
holiday sales amid tight labor markets, modest wage
gains, and improved consumer confidence. Meanwhile,
selling prices advanced at a steady, modest rate.
Ninth District economic activity grew at a modest pace.
Employment was mixed across states in the region.
Consumer spending rose, with initial reports on holiday
sales coming in positive. Manufacturing activity was flat
overall, as slower recent activity contrasted with optimistic expectations for 2020. Commercial and residential
construction grew modestly. Oil and gas drilling activity
held steady.
Richmond
Kansas City
On balance, the Fifth District economy grew moderately.
Retail, travel, and tourism picked up. Home sales and
commercial real estate leasing and construction remained strong. However, manufacturing slowed slightly
as tariff and other trade policy uncertainties continued.
Labor markets were strong and wages rose moderately.
Price growth remained moderate, overall.
District economic activity edged up in late November and
December, driven by robust retail spending during the
holiday season and stronger sales in the professional
and high-tech services and wholesale trade sectors. In
contrast, manufacturing activity and sales in the transportation sector continued to decline. Economic activity
in the energy and agriculture sectors also remained
weak.
Atlanta
Economic conditions improved modestly. Labor market
tightness continued, and wage pressures increased for
some positions. Non-labor input costs rose, in line with
expectations. Retail sales and tourism activity were
strong. Residential real estate conditions improved, and
commercial real estate activity remained positive. Manufacturing activity slowed during the reporting period.
Dallas
Economic activity expanded solidly, with growth increasing in most sectors. Home sales continued to rise while
energy activity remained weak. Hiring continued at a
steady pace. Selling prices were largely flat, even as
input prices rose. Outlooks generally improved, with
reduced trade uncertainty boosting optimism.
Chicago
San Francisco
Economic activity increased modestly. Consumer spending increased modestly, while business spending and
construction and real estate activity increased slightly.
Manufacturing and employment were little changed.
Wages and prices rose slightly and financial conditions
improved modestly. The prospects of a trade deal with
China boosted farmers’ outlooks.
Economic activity in the Twelfth District expanded at a
modest pace. The labor market remained tight, and
wages increased further. Price inflation was up slightly.
Sales of retail goods increased moderately, and consumer and business services activity was up modestly. Commerce in the manufacturing sector was stable, and activity in the agriculture sector was mixed. The residential
real estate market expanded strongly, while commercial
real estate activity softened a bit. Lending grew steadily.
2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Boston
The Beige Book ■ January 2020
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity continued to expand in the First District at the close of 2019. Retailers and manufacturers cited modest to moderate revenue increases from a year earlier, while results for software and information technology services
firms were stronger. Respondents in these three sectors also reported continued tight labor markets, but none mentioned increasing wages (other than scheduled minimum wage rises in some states). Price increases continued to be
modest according to contacts. Inventory shortages persisted in New England residential real estate markets, and median sales prices for single-family homes and condos rose across the region in November. Greater Boston’s commercial
real estate market continued to be robust, while commercial activity in the Providence area was moderate. Business
outlooks ranged from very positive to cautiously optimistic, mostly reflecting expectations that recent trends will continue
into 2020.
Employment and Wages
Retail and Tourism
Contacts in all sectors reported that labor markets remained tight in many areas. Retailers noted that minimum wage increases in effect January 1 in some states
further raise labor costs. While two contacts in the software and IT services industry noted that acquisitions
made in the past year led to increased headcounts, only
one mentioned that this could lead to future restructuring. Most of the software and IT services hiring is for
replacement only; while many contacts cited tight labor
markets as hurdles for filling vacancies, one noted that
there appeared to be no shortage of entry-level labor.
One manufacturer, a biotech firm, reported significant
hiring plans; they plan to roll out a new drug and need
additional staff. Other manufacturing contacts continued
to report difficulties hiring new workers.
Retailers consulted for this round reported that year-over
-year comparable-store sales results ranged from flat to
up a few percentage points. Black Friday and Cyber
Monday results were very strong, while Green Monday
(December 9) was a bit softer, in what was a very short
holiday sales season. Contacts expressed some concern
that higher costs, whether related to labor markets or
tariffs, in combination with a very competitive retail environment, will put a damper on revenue growth. However,
capital spending plans for 2020 are on pace with or
exceeding investment expenditures in 2019. An auto
industry contact reported that November vehicle sales
were 2 percent higher than a year earlier, continuing at a
fairly slow but steady pace.
Travel industry contacts reported that in November,
occupancy rates were down very slightly compared to
2018; for 2019 as a whole, occupancy rates were also
expected to post a slight decrease. However, lodging
revenues were up year-over-year. In one tourist market,
this reflected an increase in the average nightly room
rate. In the Boston area hotel market through November,
room rates were virtually unchanged from 2018 but new
hotel rooms increased the supply, with more new hotels
planned. The travel industry expects 2020 to be a good
year; large conventions booked in Boston will help, as
will the greater number of H2B visas issued to fill staffing
requirements.
Prices
Business contacts reported that prices had risen modestly or not at all. Retailers indicated that their price increases were very minimal in recent months. For most software and IT services firms, pricing was unchanged over
the past year, but two contacts reported price increases
of 3 percent to 5 percent year-over-year on contract
renewals for their larger enterprise customers. Manufacturers cited muted pricing pressure. A fish producer said
that tariffs had stabilized but the resulting costs were
difficult to pass on to supermarkets.
A-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Manufacturing and Related Services
markets. The investment sales market was also moderate, and capitalization rates remained stable. The outlook for Providence was cautious; one contact mentioned that uncertainties associated with the 2020 election may cause businesses to be more reserved in making long-term decisions.
Reports from manufacturing contacts were generally
positive. The number of responding firms was small in
this round. All four contacts reported higher sales versus
the year-earlier period and two said sales growth exceeded their expectations. A packaging manufacturer
attributed the strong growth to retail sales and a defense
contractor said that orders were high. A frozen fish producer said strong revenue growth largely resulted from a
change in the mix of sales to higher priced goods.
Residential Real Estate
Most residential real estate markets in the First District
experienced declines in closed sales in November. For
single-family homes, closed sales decreased in Rhode
Island, Massachusetts, Boston, and Maine while increasing slightly in New Hampshire. Median sales prices
increased moderately in all areas. For condominiums,
closed sales were down in all areas except Maine. Condo prices dropped in New Hampshire while increasing or
staying flat elsewhere in the region. Based on combined
statistics for single-family homes and condominiums,
Vermont experienced a moderate decrease in closed
sales and an increase in prices.
Three contacts reported lower capital investment but in
two of those cases the reduction was expected after
unusually high investment in recent years.
All manufacturing respondents had a positive outlook.
Only one, the packaging firm, said it had revised its
outlook up in recent months, citing a soft period last year
that appears to have ended.
Software and Information Technology Services
The New England software and IT services industry
ended 2019 on a strong note according to contacts.
Across the board, demand growth was positive, both
year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, with most contacts seeing year-over-year demand growth in the double digits. Cloud and subscription-based offerings continued to perform well, but growth was attributed to an
overall strong industry rather than specific product lines.
Overall, contacts were mostly optimistic. While political
and macroeconomic uncertainty remained a factor, many
respondents were confident about their ability to execute
their business plans in the coming quarters and expected that the strong demand seen at the end of 2019
would carry through to 2020.
Inventory shortages prevailed. In particular, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine experienced double-digit drops in inventory for both singlefamily homes and condos. According to the Massachusetts respondent, many potential sellers are concerned
about having nothing to buy after a sale because inventories are so low. Contacts expressed cautious optimism
for the coming months.■
Commercial Real Estate
Commercial real estate activity in the First District has
continued to strengthen despite some variation across
areas. The leasing market in Boston was robust in the
last quarter of 2019. Most contacts reported that they
experienced higher activity than at the end of 2018.
Activity levels picked up from November to December,
and rents continued to rise. Vacancies were low and
construction was robust. Life sciences were strong contributors to growth in 2019. The investment sales market
in Boston was strong and liquid. Contacts said the commercial real estate market in Boston was a yield generator and the outlook was very positive.
In the Providence area, by contrast, the leasing market
was moderate. Existing construction projects continued
as scheduled, but few new projects have been undertaken. Rents rose in both the office and industrial leasing
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.bostonfed.org/regional-economy
A-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
New York
The Beige Book ■ January 2020
Summary of Economic Activity
The Second District economy grew at a modest pace in the latest reporting period. The labor market remained tight,
though hiring activity was subdued and wages grew modestly. Businesses reported that both input prices and selling
prices have continued to rise modestly. Manufacturing activity picked up slightly, while most service industries reported
little change in business activity. Business contacts in most sectors were cautiously optimistic about the near-term outlook. Consumer spending was mixed, with retailers giving mixed reports on holiday-season sales, but auto dealers
noting a fairly vibrant end to the year. Housing markets have been mixed but, on balance, steady, while the residential
rental market has remained on a positive trend. Commercial real estate markets have weakened further. New commercial construction has remained sluggish, while multi-family residential construction has picked up. Finally, banks reported some pickup in loan demand and little change in delinquency rates, while financial sector contacts more generally
reported weakening activity.
Employment and Wages
Prices
The labor market has remained tight across the District,
while hiring has been restrained. Employment agencies
have noted ongoing trouble finding workers in a wide
variety of occupations, such as creative IT workers,
financial controllers, project managers, paralegals, and
delivery truck drivers.
Businesses in most sectors reported that both input
costs and selling prices have continued to rise at a modest pace. However, contacts in education & health and
wholesale & retail trade have noted fairly widespread
escalation in the prices they pay. In terms of selling
prices, the largest price hikes were reported by retailers,
wholesalers, and transportation firms. Education &
health providers also noted a leveling off in the prices
they charge. Broadway theater ticket prices moved up
during the busy holiday season and were up slightly from
a year ago.
Businesses in most sectors continued to report flat employment. Contacts in manufacturing, education &
health, and leisure & hospitality reported modest net
hiring; in contrast, contacts in the transportation and
finance sectors noted some declines in staffing levels.
Retailers noted that seasonal hiring was about the same
as a year earlier, though some contacts said they had
trouble finding enough seasonal help. Businesses in
most sectors reported that wage growth has been modest and little changed, though contacts in finance reported flat wages overall.
Looking ahead, businesses in all sectors plan to raise
their selling prices in 2020. The most widespread hikes
were anticipated in transportation, retail trade, professional & business services, and real estate, while the
least widespread were in finance, education & health,
and leisure & hospitality.
Looking ahead, businesses in manufacturing and most
service sectors still planned on adding to staff; however,
businesses in the finance and transportation sectors
projected flat employment, and retailers reported plans
to reduce staff, on net.
Consumer Spending
Retailers reported mixed results for the holiday season,
with overall sales mostly flat and on plan, while contacts
were mildly pessimistic, on balance, about the outlook
for 2020. A major retail chain reported that same-store
sales were down slightly from last year but roughly on
B-1
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
plan. Upstate New York retailers were somewhat more
upbeat, noting fairly solid shopper traffic and satisfactory
sales volume, amidst heavy discounting. A growing
proportion of holiday shopping was done online, as instore sales lagged. Most retailers indicated that inventories were in fairly good shape.
have shown signs of strengthening, with sales activity
holding up fairly well, prices rising moderately, and inventories generally stable. Similarly, the sales market in
upstate New York has remained solid, with inventories
steady at very low levels, prices running moderately
ahead of a year earlier, and homes selling fairly quickly.
Sales of both new and used vehicles have strengthened
further, helped by manufacturer incentives, heavy promotion, and solid credit conditions, according to dealers
in upstate New York. Consumer confidence in the Middle
Atlantic States (NY, NJ, PA) fell to a nearly two-year low
in December, though it remained fairly elevated.
The residential rental market has remained on a positive
trend. Rent growth has slowed in New York City’s outer
boroughs, as many newly developed properties have
come on line. In Manhattan, rents have risen modestly,
mainly at the high end. A local real estate expert attributed this to a shift from purchasing to renting, as well as a
decline in investor interest. Rental vacancy rates remain
quite low across New York City, though the shadow
inventory is reported to be somewhat higher. Landlord
concessions remain fairly sizable on new apartments.
Manufacturing and Distribution
Manufacturers reported that business activity has picked
up modestly. On the distribution side, reports were more
mixed: wholesalers reported continuing moderate growth
in activity, while transportation contacts noted a modest
downturn in business.
Commercial real estate markets across the District have
continued to soften. Office availability rates have climbed
modestly throughout New York State, while they have
been steady in northern New Jersey. Office rents have
remained essentially flat across the District. Industrial
markets have been mixed: rents have continued to trend
up, though at a decelerating pace, while availability rates
have edged up. The market for retail space has continued to soften, with asking rents drifting down and vacancy rates rising to multi-year highs.
Looking ahead, manufacturers and wholesalers indicated that they project modest growth in the months ahead,
on balance, whereas transportation businesses anticipate flat activity. Some contacts in these sectors have
continued to express concern about tariffs and trade
uncertainty, as well as minimum wage hikes.
Services
Businesses in most service industries indicated that
activity was essentially flat, on balance, since the last
report. As in the prior report, one notable exception was
the leisure & hospitality sector, where contacts continued
to note moderate growth in activity. Broadway theaters
reported a typical seasonal pickup in business in December, though both attendance and revenues were down
modestly from comparable year-ago levels.
New multi-family construction starts have picked up
across the District, while ongoing multi-family construction activity has remained brisk. New office and industrial
construction has continued to weaken modestly.
Banking and Finance
Financial sector contacts generally noted further weakening in activity and expressed ongoing concern about a
deteriorating business climate. Small to medium-sized
banks across the District reported increased demand for
all categories of loans, except commercial and industrial.
Refinancing activity was little changed. Banks reported
narrowing spreads, unchanged credit standards, and
stable delinquency rates across all major loan categories. ■
Looking ahead to the first half of 2020, however, contacts in all the major service industries expressed optimism—particularly in the information and professional &
business service sectors.
Real Estate and Construction
Housing markets across the District have been mixed
but, on balance, steady since the last report. Prices of
New York City condos and co-ops continued to weaken
and were down modestly from a year earlier. The steepest declines have continued to be at the high end of the
market. The inventory of existing homes has risen further, reaching a fairly high level in Manhattan and moderate levels in Brooklyn and Queens. In contrast, housing markets in the suburban areas around New York
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.newyorkfed.org/regional‐economy
B-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia
The Beige Book ■ January 2020
Summary of Economic Activity
Aggregate Third District business activity edged back to a slight pace of growth during the current Beige Book period.
Manufacturing slowed to a slight pace of growth, and financial services slowed to a modest pace. On balance, nonfinancial services continued growing modestly, but the pace seemed to ebb a bit. Nonresidential construction declined slightly after holding steady in the prior period. In contrast, homebuilders and auto dealers experienced slight-to-modest
growth after a prior period of slight decline and no growth, respectively. Commercial leasing activity held steady, and
sales of existing homes continued to decline at a moderate pace. Labor markets remained excessively tight throughout
the District, and wages continued growing moderately. While contacts describe increased wage pressure, they continued to report slight employment increases. Overall, price pressures remained modest. The firms’ outlook for growth over
the next six months remained positive, though cautious, and broadened further among nonmanufacturing firms.
Employment and Wages
quired to attract workers for a manufacturing/
warehousing job but that these workers were being
drawn from other employers. On average, the share of
nonmanufacturing contacts who reported increases in
wage and benefit costs remained near 44 percent; just 3
percent reported decreases.
Employment continued to grow slightly during the current
Beige Book period. About two-thirds of the nonmanufacturing firms and four-fifths of the manufacturers reported
no change in staff. While the share of manufacturers
reporting a higher number of employees fell, the share
among the much larger nonmanufacturing sector rose
somewhat. Average work hours have continued to edge
down since the prior period at manufacturing firms but
rebounded at nonmanufacturing firms.
Prices
Most firms continued to report modest increases for both
input prices and prices received for their own goods and
services. However, the share of nonmanufacturers reporting higher prices paid rose significantly – well above
its average. The share of firms reporting no change in
prices rose to about three-fourths for manufacturers but
fell to about half for nonmanufacturers.
The firms continued to report tight labor market conditions. Lack of available labor has constrained production
and expansion plans, according to various manufacturing and service-sector firms. Staffing firms reported
continued demand for new job placements from clients
but an insufficient supply of qualified labor to fill the
orders. Turnover rates are rising, and nonstandard shifts
are most difficult to fill. One staffing contact noted that
some clients simply canceled orders from the fall that
had gone unfilled. Another noted that a new hire took
another job during the firm’s onboarding orientation.
Looking ahead six months, the anticipation of higher
prices has broadened among manufacturers. About half
of the firms expected higher prices; almost none expected prices to fall. This was true for prices firms expected to pay as well as for prices firms expected to
receive for their own goods.
Manufacturing
On balance, wage growth continued at a moderate pace,
and many contacts noted a resumption of rising wage
pressure. One staffing firm reported that its wage rates
were up 4 to 5 percent year over year. Another staffing
firm noted that $15 an hour was now the minimum re-
On balance, manufacturers reported slight growth in
activity – easing from the modest pace reported during
the prior period. The percentage of firms reporting increases in shipments and new orders slipped to one-
C-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
third; the percentage reporting decreases also dipped for
shipments but rose to one-fourth for new orders.
Financial Services
Financial firms reported modest growth in overall loan
volumes (excluding credit cards) on a year-over-year
basis – a bit slower than in the prior period. Credit card
lending also edged back to a modest pace.
Comments remain mixed. Primary metals firms continued to note that some customers are beginning to
source parts domestically again. However, downstream
fabricators continued to note uncertainty, delayed or
canceled expansions, and fewer orders from their customers. One contact did note that settling the new trade
agreement with Canada and Mexico provided greater
certainty and should increase some domestic production.
During the current period (reported without seasonal
adjustments), volumes appeared to grow robustly for
home mortgages and commercial real estate, and modestly for other consumer loans (not elsewhere classified).
Home equity lines and commercial and industrial loan
volumes declined, while auto lending appeared flat.
Manufacturers’ expectations of activity over the next six
months eased somewhat. Expectations of shipments
and of new orders edged lower but remained above long
-term nonrecession averages. Planned capital spending
also fell, yet expectations of future employment increases rose.
Banking contacts continued to express few concerns
over credit quality; however, one contact noted that
mortgage delinquencies had ticked up but were still at
good levels. Of greater concern was an observation that
as interest rates fell, many homeowners took additional
cash with their refinanced mortgages – raising the question for banking contacts of whether the cash was for
additional investment or was taken out of necessity to
pay down other debt. Most banking contacts remained
optimistic about continued growth through 2020.
Consumer Spending
Contacts for malls and convenience stores continued to
report modest growth in nonauto retail sales. Although
the holiday sales season began late this year, mall store
operators noted that activity appeared strong from Black
Friday through mid-December across most retail segments. Mall shoppers seemed to focus on a single
store’s promotion, then make return trips for other stores’
sales. Contacts also noted that shoppers are increasingly returning their online sales to local stores, which has
boosted mall traffic. Convenience store contacts continued to report modest sales growth and no lull in the
morning coffee runs of construction workers. Retailers
expressed positive outlooks for 2020.
Real Estate and Construction
Homebuilders reported a pickup to modest growth in
contract signings, noting ongoing strength in 55+ communities and renewed interest in the luxury market.
Apartment and condo construction has helped offset the
difficulty of building affordable single-family units.
Existing home sales continued to decline moderately on
a year-over-year basis across most local markets, with
exceptions of slight growth at the Jersey shore. Inventory
constraints persisted. An area broker confirmed that
potential listings of existing homes may be lost to investors converting houses to rentals and to developers
razing houses, then rebuilding new units, to a greater
degree than normal, especially in Philadelphia.
Most auto dealers reported that sales were flat to up
slightly, although the pace appeared to wane near yearend. Dealers noted that sales were stronger in more
profitable segments, such as SUVs, than in sedans. The
profitable used car market also remained strong. Early
estimates of total 2019 sales growth were positive for
most New Jersey and Pennsylvania dealers, and they
expressed optimism for another good sales year in 2020.
On balance, commercial real estate construction appeared to ease slightly, while leasing activity held steady
– both at relatively high levels. Contacts reported continued strength in the industrial market, with ongoing demand for new construction; however, a few contacts
noted that some warehouses are not being used to
capacity. Most contacts remain optimistic about office
space leasing and construction, but one noted that Philadelphia’s construction activity has fallen slightly and may
remain a bit below prior-year levels. ■
Nonfinancial Services
On balance, activity at service-sector firms continued at
a modest pace of growth. However, activity weakened a
bit, as the percentage of firms reporting increases in new
orders decreased significantly, while the share of firms
reporting decreases in current revenues doubled. Proposed tariffs on European wine prompted an area merchant to stock up with over 35,000 cases to beat the
February sanction and minimize price hikes. Over twothirds of the firms – more than in the prior period – expect growth over the next six months.
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regionaleconomy
C-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Cleveland
The Beige Book ■ January 2020
Summary of Economic Activity
The Fourth District economy continued to expand at a modest, relatively steady pace recently. The growth resulted from
continuing strength in a few key sectors and waning drags from manufacturing and freight. As has been the case for
several reporting periods, professional and business services firms provided a steady source of support for the broader
economy. Construction and real estate activity remained strong, on balance, particularly on the nonresidential side.
Meanwhile, consumer spending picked up as the holiday shopping season progressed. Bankers indicated that loan
demand was stable on net. Although manufacturing activity did not expand during the reporting period, it did not contract either, as it had for much of 2019 as factories adjusted to weaker global economic growth and trade-related uncertainties. Turning to the outlook, firms remained optimistic about demand for their goods and services in coming months,
albeit a little less optimistic than during the prior reporting period. Labor demand remained firm, while wages and selling
prices increased at a modest pace.
Employment and Wages
paying higher yearend bonuses, and one implemented a
new profit-sharing plan to help retain workers.
On balance, aggregate employment increased slightly in
recent weeks. Professional and business services firms
continued to add workers because demand for their
services increased from already robust levels. At the
same time, construction and real estate firms suggested
that labor demand remained solid at a time of year when
firms are often experiencing a seasonal slowdown in
construction and sales. Reports from manufacturers
suggest that payrolls were relatively stable as demand
for factory goods was flat. Retailers indicated that seasonal hiring was largely unchanged from a year earlier.
Outside of a seasonal pickup in hiring for holiday fulfillment, transportation and freight contacts generally suggested that employment was flat to down in the sector.
Some lenders reduced payrolls because overall loan
demand was flat and they sought to increase efficiencies. Looking forward, firms were more bullish about
their near-term hiring expectations than they were during
the prior reporting period.
Prices
On average, selling prices in the District rose modestly in
recent weeks. Output price increases were most often
reported by contacts in the retail, professional and business services, and construction industries because of
persistent strength in demand. By contrast, manufacturers indicated that output prices continued to move lower,
although at a slower pace, while a downward trend in
freight prices paused recently. Nonlabor input costs
increased at a slightly faster pace in recent weeks.
Retailers said that tariffs continued to put upward pressure on costs, as did increases in some commodity
prices. Higher food prices were reported by a few restauranteurs. Freight contacts noted materially higher
(nonhealthcare) insurance costs because insurance
claims against trucking companies have increased dramatically while insurance capacity has dwindled. Manufacturers indicated that, on balance, materials costs have
stabilized after trending lower in earlier months. Meanwhile, reports from professional and business services
firms suggest that upward (nonlabor) cost pressures may
have eased somewhat.
Wages increased at a modest pace, on net, similar to
that of the prior reporting period. Firms across most
industry segments reported that wages were increasing,
particularly in geographies and occupations where competition for workers was significant. A few firms reported
D-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Consumer Spending
construction helped boost leasing activity because tenants sought lower-cost alternatives to new construction.
On balance, nonresidential construction and real estate
activity was expected to remain robust into 2020.
Consumer spending increased solidly; retailers reported
significant sales gains that exceeded the typical holiday
season pickup. One large department store contact said
that Black Friday turnout lifted November sales to
“abnormally strong” levels. Furthermore, auto retailers
reported that new-vehicle sales were up 10 percent from
a year earlier, boosted by manufacturers’ incentives and
strong performance of the stock market. Most retailers
expected sales to slow back to normal levels heading
into the first quarter of 2020. A hospitality contact indicated that investment in local construction projects had
boosted demand for hotel rooms in his region.
Financial Services
Reports from bankers were mixed but generally pointed
to flat loan demand. Lower interest rates spurred an
uptick in auto loan demand and home mortgage activity.
However, that growth was offset by weaker demand for
business loans. Bankers expected that the first quarter of
2020 would remain soft, citing the usual seasonal factors. Most bankers indicated that core deposits increased, but several noted that this was typical at the
end of the calendar year.
Manufacturing
The overall level of manufacturing activity did not change
meaningfully, but individual firms’ reports varied considerably. Several contacts indicated that demand increased as the year drew to a close. Moreover, they
seemed optimistic about the near-term outlook for demand and planned their capital expenditures accordingly. Meanwhile, others noted that ongoing trade-related
uncertainty, weak industrial activity, and a typical seasonal slowdown constrained demand. These manufacturers indicated that their backlogs were soft, and they
relayed reports that their customers did not expect that
demand would soon return to levels seen in recent
years. To cope with weaker demand, these manufacturers were watching spending carefully, resulting in less
ambitious capital spending plans, reduced hours for
workers, and less use of workers from temporary help
agencies.
Professional and Business Services
Activity in the professional and business services sector
held steady at robust levels since the previous report.
Most industry contacts indicated there had been no
recent changes in their activity levels, although a consulting firm in the online commerce industry reported a
significant improvement in business conditions over the
holiday period. A wealth advisor noted a slight increase
in activity in recent months and identified his clients’
confidence in the economic outlook for 2020 as the
driving factor. Overall, the majority of contacts in professional and business services expected favorable conditions to persist into the first quarter of 2020.
Freight
Reports from the transportation sector remained mixed
but generally pointed to a slower contraction in freight
volumes. Contacts commonly indicated that overall
freight volumes remained lower in most industries and
noted that the fall shipping season as a whole was softer
than normal. Freight executives cited low commodity
prices and tariffs on imported goods from China as factors contributing to the ongoing weakness. Several
freight firms reported increases in their freight volumes
since the previous report. However, these companies
cited improved internal management and advertising as
the drivers of the gains rather than a broader strengthening in demand. Expectations for future freight activity
remained soft. ■
Real Estate and Construction
Overall construction and real estate activity edged up in
recent weeks in spite of a typical seasonal slowdown in
some segments. This seasonal slowdown was particularly notable on the residential side where both homebuilders and residential real estate contacts indicated that
cold weather and the holidays combined to slow activity
as 2019 drew to a close. However, one residential broker
indicated that while sales activity slowed from two
months earlier, it remained more robust than during the
same period a year earlier.
By contrast, nonresidential builders and real estate firms
indicated that demand remained very firm in spite of the
expected seasonal slowdown. One contractor summarized the sentiment in the industry by stating that “times
are good and people are building.” On the commercial
real estate side, one contact indicated that growth in
some of his economically vibrant markets was being
augmented by emerging growth in one of his lagging
metro markets. Another said that rising costs for new
D-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Richmond
The Beige Book ■ January 2020
Summary of Economic Activity
Overall, the Fifth District economy grew moderately in recent weeks. Manufacturing activity, however, softened slightly as
firms continued to face headwinds from tariffs, other trade policies, and labor availability. Port activity varied by commodity, while trucking shipments rose modestly, compared to recent months, but remained below last year’s level. Travel and
tourism grew moderately, with particular strength in business travel. In addition, retailers reported moderate growth in
sales as holiday shopping was even with or above the year-ago level. Home sales and mortgage lending remained fairly
strong, as were commercial real estate leasing and construction. Business lending, according to bankers, was modest,
as some firms were reluctant to invest due to uncertainty. Nonfinancial services firms gave mixed reports with some
education and health services firms reporting growth while firms providing professional and business services reported
softer demand. Farmers generally had good crop yields and solid demand in recent weeks, but faced tighter margins.
The demand for labor remained strong across skill levels, and wage increases were moderate. Price growth picked up
slightly for services, but remained muted, overall.
Manufacturing
Employment and Wages
The demand for labor remained strong in recent weeks
and businesses continued to report labor shortages
across skill levels. The tight labor market led some
firms to increase benefits and wages, ease background
screening requirements, and invest in labor-saving
technology. To retain workers, firms have increased
wages, training, and talent development. Overall, wage
increases were moderate with some larger raises cited
for specific job categories, such as electricians and
other skilled trades.
Fifth District manufacturing softened somewhat since our
last report. On balance, contacts reported drops in both
shipments and new orders. Many manufacturers cited
uncertainty regarding trade policies as a major concern.
Several increased prices of final goods but struggled
with low profit margins due to tariffs on raw materials.
Some manufacturers saw strong demand but had output
constrained by labor shortages. However, a Virginia food
manufacturer met demand by and investing in new
equipment.
Prices
Ports and Transportation
Import and export volumes varied by commodity in recent weeks. For example, port contacts noted a decline
in soybean exports to Asia, but expected shipments to
rise after an announced trade deal with China. Exports of
metals and hardware to Europe were weak, but pork
exports were strong. Imports of furniture and other commodities were soft, but auto and apparel imports remained strong. Despite continued concerns about trade
policy, port executives were optimistic and continued to
invest in capital expansion projects.
On balance, price growth remained moderate since our
previous Beige Book report. Manufacturers reported
little change in annual growth of prices paid and prices
received in recent weeks with both increasing at rates
slightly below two percent, on average. Several manufacturers said that tariffs continued to impact the cost of
raw materials. Meanwhile, services sector firms reported an uptick in price growth for prices paid and prices
received, with both exceeding two percent but remaining within a moderate range.
E-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Fifth District trucking rates continued to soften, and while
shipments were lower than last year, they were slightly
above the previous few months. Retail shipments were
fairly strong for the holiday season. Some trucking companies picked up both business and labor from a major
company closure as well as from continued closures of
smaller companies. Low fuel prices helped margins
amid softening rates, but one executive is struggling
with increasing costs of liability insurance. Trucking firms
expressed concerns about political uncertainty going
into an election year, but continued to make long-term
investments and were optimistic that business would
remain solid.
office leasing. Occupancy of multifamily properties increased. Rental rates were generally described as
steady to increasing slightly across property types. Office
vacancy rates were stable, although some brokers expect them to increase in the coming months. Commercial
real estate sales and sale prices showed modest growth,
boosted by low interest rates, and construction remained
strong across most types of properties, even though
construction costs are high.
Banking and Finance
Overall, loan demand grew slightly in recent weeks.
Bankers said that moderate growth in residential mortgages and commercial real estate loans was due, at
least in part, to low rates. Although some bankers noted
that the number of C&I loans in the pipeline rose modestly, a few respondents stated that firms seem to be
holding back on capital spending. On balance, residential refinancing activity, home equity lines, and other
consumer loans grew modestly. Applicant credit quality
and loan delinquencies were reportedly unchanged, but
bankers reported a slight decline in underwriting standards. Core deposits remained unchanged despite comments about increased competition from non-bank financial institutions.
Retail, Travel, and Tourism
Overall, Fifth District travel and tourism grew moderately
since our last report. Business travel was particularly
strong. Hotel rates and occupancy generally remained
solid around most of the District amid high demand,
even as more rooms opened. One exception was a
hotel in Greenville, South Carolina, that attributed a drop
in occupancy to increased supply of both hotels and
short-term rental properties. Additionally, hotels in
Charleston, West Virginia, reported low occupancy
despite stronger tourism in the state as a whole.
Retailers in the Fifth District reported moderate sales in
recent weeks. Stores had solid customer traffic for the
holidays, and many retailers reported that holiday sales
were level with or up from last year. Auto dealers had
increasing sales, amid high manufacturer incentives,
and noted a shift towards smaller down payments and
longer term financing. Some dealers said that rising
costs were leading them to raise prices, and there were
mild concerns about tariffs and online competition. However, other dealers have continued to invest and expand, as they expect to see strong growth in 2020.
Nonfinancial Services
Reports from nonfinancial services firms were mixed.
Universities reported growth in healthcare, IT, and computer science programs. Also, a health service provider
experienced growth and investment in ambulatory and
urgent care facilities. A marketing firm, on the other
hand, reported a slowdown that was partly due to the
holidays and partly because potential clients were taking
a long time to make decisions. In addition, a couple of
firms in D.C. noted that political uncertainties, including a
potential government shutdown, hampered demand for
IT consulting and teleservices.
Real Estate and Construction
Home sales in the Fifth District remained fairly strong in
recent weeks, apart from a slight seasonal softening.
Some real estate agents noted an increase in days on
the market as home prices rose but said activity is
strong overall. Inventory levels remained low, particularly in lower price ranges. Demand for construction of new
homes was high, but construction was limited by availability of workers. Contacts expected buyer traffic and
demand to increase in the coming months.
Natural Resources
Recent reports on the natural resources sector varied.
Agriculture contacts were mostly positive because of
good crop yields and solid demand; however, farmers
faced tighter profit margins due to low selling prices and
rising prices for labor, equipment, and land. Coal production reportedly picked up slightly, but several firms remain in bankruptcy proceedings. Finally, the oil and gas
industry was negatively affected by low selling prices,
excess supply, and stalled pipeline construction. ■
Commercial real estate leasing remained strong since
our last report. Brokers reported strong demand for
industrial and retail space but slightly lower demand for
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.richmondfed.org/research/regional_economy
E-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Atlanta
The Beige Book ■ January 2020
Summary of Economic Activity
On balance, economic activity in the Sixth District expanded at a modest pace since the previous report, and the outlook
among contacts remained positive. Labor market tightness continued to limit growth in some sectors. Wage pressures
persisted for lower-skilled positions, and some contacts expect higher wages in the coming year. In line with expectations, nonlabor costs continued to slowly rise. Retailers cited healthy holiday sales levels; however, automotive dealers
saw relatively flat sales levels compared to a year earlier. District tourism contacts noted strong leisure travel activity.
Residential real estate conditions continued to improve, and commercial real estate firms cited steady sales and leasing
activity. Manufacturing activity decelerated as new order levels fell slightly and production levels declined. District bankers noted that financial conditions remained healthy, and the pace of loan growth was positive.
Employment and Wages
over-year unit costs were up 1.6 percent in December.
Survey respondents indicated they expect unit costs to
rise 1.9 percent over the next twelve months.
Firms reported that attracting and retaining quality talent
remained a challenge, which, for employers in the construction, banking, technology, and food services industries, continued to limit growth. While some manufacturing contacts also described this as a challenge, other
manufacturers reported a slowing pace of hiring over the
reporting period. Businesses reported continuing to
explore new recruiting and retention tactics, such as
offering a variety of benefits, paying for training and
certifications, and clearly demonstrating potential career
paths. Many firms continued to pursue investments in
automation and technology, which are expected to ultimately reduce headcount requirements.
Consumer Spending and Tourism
In line with expectations, District retailers reported
healthy sales levels during the holiday season. Online
sales levels continued to dominate overall sales activity.
Automotive dealers reported relatively flat sales levels in
November compared to the same period last year.
On balance, District travel and tourism contacts noted a
strong holiday travel season with year-over-year growth
in leisure travel. The outlook for 2020 remained positive
with healthy advance bookings through the first quarter
of the year.
On average, firms maintained merit increases of 2.5-4
percent, though wage pressure continued to build for
lower-skilled positions. Some contacts indicated they
expect wages and health insurance costs to accelerate
in 2020.
Construction and Real Estate
Low mortgage rates continued to help support demand
for housing across much of the District. Price appreciation was firm while single-family sales were up from the
previous year. The limited inventory of existing homes
for sale, as well as the level of starts, suggested that
supply remained constrained. Some contacts noted
concerns that further price appreciation and low inventories may adversely affect affordability, despite low interest rates. Mortgage loan quality remained stable across
the District, although Mississippi saw a slight uptick in
delinquencies over the past year.
Prices
As reported previously, nonlabor costs continued to rise,
although still in line with expectations. Contacts noted
pricing power with goods impacted by tariffs and in construction. Some contacts reported that the use of pricing
transparency tools by consumers and businesses was
causing downward pricing pressure. The Atlanta Fed’s
Business Inflation Expectations survey showed year-
F-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Commercial real estate (CRE) contacts reported leasing
and sales activity remained steady during the reporting
period, although some contacts mentioned growing
uncertainty as a concern. Overall, most sectors experienced positive dynamics as rents continued to grow and
vacancies trended downward at a modest pace. However, some CRE contacts did report that continued growth
in construction costs was impacting the start of a modest
number of new projects. Contacts continued to report
that capital for CRE projects was readily available via
banks and non-bank entities, with non-bank entities
remaining aggressive in financing both construction and
stabilized CRE projects. Modestly growing amounts of
leverage, loosening of underwriting standards, and an
increase in covenant-lite structures were noted.
ued softening in output, largely related to declining activity in manufactured goods sectors in addition to soft
global economic growth. Strong growth continued in the
renewable energy sector, particularly in wind and solar.
Utilities contacts reported slowing momentum among
certain industrial segments.
Agriculture
Agricultural conditions remained mixed. Recent rains
improved drought conditions for most of the District,
although parts of Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana experienced abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions.
The December production forecast for Florida's orange
crop was unchanged while the grapefruit production
forecast increased; both forecasts remain ahead of last
year's production. On a year-over-year basis, prices paid
to farmers in November were up for corn, rice, soybeans,
eggs, and milk but down for cotton and broilers; beef
prices were unchanged. However, on a month-overmonth basis, prices increased for cotton, rice, beef,
eggs, and milk but declined for corn, soybeans and
broilers. ■
Manufacturing
Manufacturing firms reported a deceleration in overall
business activity since the last reporting period. New
order levels fell slightly and notable decreases in production levels were reported. Finished inventory levels declined, and purchasing managers noted that supply
delivery wait times were slightly longer. Optimism for
future production levels increased among manufacturing
contacts, with just over one-quarter of contacts expecting
higher levels of production over the next six months,
compared to one-fifth in the last reporting period.
Transportation
District transportation firms cited mixed results since the
previous report. Port contacts reported sustained growth
in the shipments of containers, automobiles, and heavy
equipment. Logistics firms noted substantial increases in
ecommerce activity over the reporting period as compared with year-earlier levels. District railroads, however,
noted continued year-over-year softness in freight volumes across most commodities, and further declines in
intermodal traffic. Air cargo carriers saw lower year-overyear freight volumes.
Banking and Finance
Conditions at District financial institutions remained
healthy. Earnings improved over the previous quarter as
increases in noninterest income helped offset an ongoing decline in the net interest margin. Asset quality remained stable as most financial institutions reported that
they resisted loosening underwriting standards despite
increased competition. Though moderating, loan growth
continued to be positive.
Energy
Oil and gas contacts indicated that production was
steady to slightly up over the reporting period; however,
firms that service oil-producing wells reported slowing
activity. Some chemical manufacturers described contin-
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.frbatlanta.org/economy-matters/regional-economics
F-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago
The Beige Book ■ January 2020
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Seventh District increased modestly overall in late November and December, and contacts
expected growth to continue at a similar pace over the next 12 months. Consumer spending increased modestly, while
business spending and construction and real estate activity increased slightly. Manufacturing and employment were little
changed. Wages and prices rose slightly and financial conditions improved modestly. The prospects of a trade deal with
China boosted farmers’ outlooks.
Employment and Wages
Consumer Spending
Employment was little changed over the reporting period,
though contacts expected a modest rate of growth over
the next 12 months. Current hiring remained focused on
professional and technical, sales, and managerial workers. As they have for some time, contacts indicated that
the labor market was tight and that it was difficult to fill
positions at all skill levels. Manufacturers facing slow
demand again reported cutting hours rather than laying
off workers because they were worried the tight labor
market would make it too difficult to hire when demand
recovered. A staffing firm reported a moderate increase
in billable hours. Wages increased slightly. Contacts
were most likely to report increases for administrative,
professional and technical, and managerial workers.
Multiple contacts reported greater wage pressures for
entry-level workers. Benefit costs increased modestly.
Consumer spending increased modestly over the reporting period. Nonauto retail sales were up modestly, with
gains reported in the electronics, entertainment, furniture, and jewelry sectors. Overall, holiday sales met
retailers’ expectations. Contacts again reported strong
growth in e-commerce and slow growth for brick and
mortar general merchandise stores. New and used light
vehicle sales increased moderately. Contacts continued
to report shortages of GM replacement parts following
the UAW strike.
Business Spending
Business spending increased slightly in late November
and December. Retail inventories were generally comfortable, though GM dealers reported that restocking
following the end of the UAW strike was proceeding
slower than expected. Most manufacturers indicated that
inventories were at comfortable levels and fewer contacts noted higher-than-desired levels. One heavy machinery dealer reported elevated inventory due to slower
sales. Capital spending increased slightly and contacts
expected a modest increase in spending over the next
12 months. Current outlays were primarily for IT equipment and intellectual property. Three-quarters of contacts reported that their newly purchased capital was
intended to increase capacity. Demand for transportation
Prices
Prices increased slightly in late November and December, and contacts expected modest increases over the
next 12 months. Retail prices increased slightly overall.
One contact noted a small pickup in grocery price inflation. In addition, the contact reported that retailers were
passing a greater share of freight- and tariff-related costs
onto customers. Producer prices edged up, with contacts
generally reporting small growth in input costs.
G-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
services declined slightly. Energy usage edged down,
largely due to lower demand from the industrial sector.
Agriculture
The prospects of a trade deal with China created some
optimism in the farm sector. One contact called the
potential deal a “key market driver.” The final results for
the 2019 harvest varied from average to well below
normal across the District, yet they were better than had
been expected in light of poor weather during both planting and harvesting. Corn and soybean prices moved
higher, with both prices above year-ago levels. That
said, lower-than-usual corn quality and higher-than-usual
drying costs cut into crop farmers’ profits. Overall, with
extra government payments boosting farm income, the
District’s agricultural sector was in about the same financial shape as it was a year ago. Increases in milk and
cattle prices provided a boost to dairy and livestock
producers. ■
Construction and Real Estate
Overall, construction and real estate activity increased
slightly over the reporting period. Residential construction contacts reported a small increase in building. Residential real estate activity was unchanged, as growing
demand for starter homes was offset by declining demand for high-end homes. Home prices and rents increased slightly. Nonresidential construction activity was
little changed, and contacts again noted that rising costs
were holding back growth. Commercial real estate activity increased slightly on top of a strong level. Contacts
highlighted growth in the flex-office and industrial sectors
but continued to report difficulties for big box and mall
retailers. Rents ticked higher, vacancy rates inched
lower, and the availability of sublease space increased
marginally.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing production was flat in late November and
December. Steel demand increased slightly, supported
by increased demand from the auto sector following the
end of the GM strike. Auto production was little changed
overall, but continued at a solid level. GM suppliers
reported that orders returned in line with expectations
after the strike ended. Demand for heavy trucks decreased, and contacts expected continued declines over
the next year. Heavy machinery manufacturers reported
modest increases in sales. Demand for specialty metals
was flat overall, with increased orders from the aerospace, defense, and energy sectors offset by decreased
orders from the agriculture and heavy trucks sectors.
Manufacturers of building materials reported little change
in sales.
Banking and Finance
Financial conditions improved modestly over the reporting period. Participants in the equity and bond markets
reported moderately better conditions, citing lower interest rates, “stabilization” of the yield curve, and progress
in trade talks between the US and China as positive
developments. Business loan demand decreased slightly
overall, with contacts reporting a slowdown in commercial real estate activity. Loan quality deteriorated slightly,
but standards were little changed. Consumer loan demand increased modestly, led by continued growth in
mortgage refinancing; loan quality and standards were
little changed.
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
chicagofed.org/cfsbc
G-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis
The Beige Book ■ January 2020
Summary of Economic Activity
Reports from contacts indicate that economic conditions have slightly improved since our previous report. Firms reported employment levels were unchanged. Overall, wage pressures have increased moderately, with contacts citing minimum wage increases as a contributing factor. Reports on consumer spending were generally positive, although reports
on holiday sales were mixed. Activity in the manufacturing sector continued to decline, although there are signs of stabilization. District banking contacts reported positive growth in loan volumes. Agriculture conditions remain unchanged,
although overall conditions remain weak in this sector.
Missouri contacts to delay hiring for at least a month. An
Arkansas contact reported multiple retailers are hiring
fewer workers to counteract the increase in labor costs.
Employment and Wages
Employment has remained largely unchanged since the
previous reporting period. Contacts across the District
frequently emphasized the tight labor market. Firms
continue to raise benefits, lower hiring standards, automate positions, and increase existing employees’ responsibilities due to chronic worker shortages. However,
many firms are hesitant to invest in training new employees, fearing that they would expend resources developing workers and lose them to better-paying jobs. Small
and rural business contacts report having an especially
difficult time recruiting workers. Survey-based indicators
also continue to show employment declines in Missouri
and Arkansas manufacturing. However, overall employment remains strong, with St. Louis contacts emphasizing that employers continue to expand their workforce
whenever possible.
Prices
Prices have increased slightly since the previous report.
Business contacts noted that fuel and energy costs have
been declining, and coal prices in particular have shown
modest declines since the previous report. Auto industry
contacts noted slight increases in the prices of used
vehicles, but also the availability of more low-interest
financing options with low down payments.
Construction contacts reported that prior price increases
from tariffs on building materials, such as steel and
aluminum, have now been passed on to consumers.
Steel prices have increased by 12 percent since the
previous report, but are down 26 percent year over year.
Contacts in the retail and restaurant industries said that
prices were unchanged, but that increasing food prices
are putting cost pressures on businesses.
Wages have increased moderately since the previous
report. Contacts continued to link this to the tight labor
market, raising wages to both attract new workers and
limit turnover. Firms’ reported ability to raise wages
remains positively related to their size, with smaller firms
struggling to increase wages. Arkansas, Illinois, and
Missouri minimum wage increases have also come into
effect with the new year. Uncertainty over how this will
impact market wages of various positions has led some
Consumer Spending
Reports from general retailers, auto dealers, and hospitality contacts indicate consumer activity has improved
slightly since the previous report. November real sales
tax collections increased in Missouri, West Tennessee,
Arkansas, and Kentucky relative to a year ago. Consum-
H-1
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
er sentiment in West Tennessee regarding both current
economic conditions and economic conditions over the
next six months has improved since September. Little
Rock area general retailers reported slight increases in
business activity during the second half of 2019. St.
Louis area general retailers had mixed accounts of sales
over the holiday season, noting a strong shift toward
online shopping. Little Rock area auto dealers reported
steady sales over the previous quarter, and they continued to observe particularly strong demand in the used
car market. St. Louis region hospitality contacts generally reported that business activity met expectations over
the holiday season, and they remain cautiously optimistic
about the months ahead, encouraged by several major
events taking place in the region during the first quarter
of 2020.
are down slightly in the area compared with this time last
year, builders remain confident that housing demand will
remain robust due to low mortgage rates.
Commercial construction activity has increased modestly
since the previous report. The number of commercial
construction projects increased moderately from October
to November across most of the states in the District. A
contact in Little Rock noted that they had never seen a
construction boom as strong and as long-lasting as the
current one.
Banking and Finance
Banking conditions in the District have improved modestly since the previous report. According to reports from
bankers, outstanding loan volumes grew by 4 percent in
the fourth quarter relative to one year ago, which was a
departure from a recent slowing in the rate of loan
growth. Commercial and industrial lending growth remained stable, growing by 2 percent year-over-year.
Commercial real estate lending maintained a positive
and slightly slower growth rate compared with the previous quarter. Residential real estate lending also increased slowly, which is in contrast to the prior quarter,
when lending growth declined slightly.
Manufacturing
Overall manufacturing activity has declined slightly since
our previous report. Survey-based indexes suggest that
Arkansas manufacturing activity remained stable. New
orders remained stable, while production decreased
slightly from last month. Manufacturing activity in Missouri declined relative to one month ago. New orders
and production decreased slightly. Contacts in the steel
and landscape equipment industries reported plans to
increase capital investment in 2020. One large U.S.
manufacturing company announced plans to open a
manufacturing/distribution facility in the region.
Agriculture and Natural Resources
District agriculture conditions remain unchanged from
the previous reporting period. The percentage of winter
wheat in the District rated fair or better remained approximately unchanged at 93 percent from the end of October to the end of November. This is roughly the same
level of winter wheat rated fair or better at the end of
2018. Contacts reported that continued low crop prices
and trade disputes have harmed the industry. Several
reports indicated the federal assistance to farmers via
the market facilitation program has helped farmers remain in business.
Nonfinancial Services
Activity in the services sector has slightly improved since
the previous report. The transportation industry has
experienced increased activity since the previous report.
Major logistics firms plan new distribution centers; however, one firm has announced layoffs. Traffic on waterways and highways is largely unchanged. Contacts
noted falling river barge prices resulting from excess
supply of river barges due to declining exports of soybeans. However, in airports, passenger traffic increased
by 3 percent year-to-year.
Natural resource extraction conditions improved modestly from October to November, with seasonally adjusted
coal production increasing 1.8 percent. November production declined 7 percent from a year ago. ■
Real Estate and Construction
Residential real estate activity has decreased slightly
since the previous report. Seasonally adjusted home
sales decreased modestly from October to November in
Little Rock, decreased slightly in St. Louis and Memphis,
and were unchanged in Louisville. Inventory levels in the
region remained depressed.
Residential construction activity increased slightly. There
was a slight uptick in November permit activity across
District MSAs relative to the previous month. Contacts in
St. Louis reported that, while year-to-date permit levels
For more information about District economic conditions, visit:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/regecon/
H-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Minneapolis
The Beige Book ■ January 2020
Summary of Economic Activity
The Ninth District economy grew at a modest pace since the last report. Employment was mixed across the region,
while wage pressures were moderate overall and price pressures remained modest. The District economy saw growth
in consumer spending, commercial construction and real estate, residential construction, and energy. Manufacturing
and energy activity was flat. Residential real estate fell slightly, while agricultural conditions remained weak.
Employment and Wages
Wage pressures were moderate overall, with
considerable variation. Fewer than half of staffing firms
polled by the Minneapolis Fed said wages grew by more
than 3 percent over the past 12 months, though more
than 60 percent said they expected wage increases
above 3 percent over the coming year. Close to 70
percent of firms in the aforementioned greater Minnesota
poll said wages grew by less than 3 percent over the
past year, with future wage expectations only slightly
higher. However, a contact in Michigan’s U.P. said
housekeeping positions have recently seen wage
increases of 10 percent or more, while a call center and
manufacturer there increased wages by more than 5
percent. A construction contact said workers were
getting recruited regularly, and a 3 percent raise “isn’t
good enough” to retain good employees. In contrast, a
manufacturer of hardwood products with plants in
Wisconsin that has been “significantly affected” by tariffs
cut wages by 10 percent.
Employment was mixed since the last report. Minnesota
and Wisconsin both saw seasonally adjusted
employment fall in November, while other District states
saw slight-to-moderate gains. Job postings rose by
double digits in the Dakotas, but were lower in
Minnesota and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula.
Unemployment insurance initial claims were higher
overall during the most recent six-week period (through
mid-December) compared with the same period a year
earlier, with claims increasing notably in Minnesota and
Wisconsin, but falling in the Dakotas. A poll of Minnesota
staffing firms by the Minneapolis Fed found that recent
job orders and hours booked were modestly higher;
unfilled job orders were also higher due to tight labor
supply. Staffing contacts in eastern North Dakota and
Michigan’s U.P. also said job orders were higher. A
Montana staffing contact said job orders were lower, but
the company has also been more selective. “We are no
longer writing job orders we know we can’t fill.” A survey
of employer hiring sentiment found more optimism
across the District for the first quarter of 2020 compared
with the same survey a year ago. However, two other
regional hiring indexes that include Minnesota and the
Dakotas had softer outlooks, including one that
suggested contraction in manufacturing employment. A
poll by the Minneapolis Fed of greater Minnesota firms
found generally soft hiring activity, particularly compared
with a similar poll in mid-2019.
Prices
Price pressures remained modest since the previous
report. Respondents to a recent survey of Minnesota
economic development officials reported that retail prices
among their business contacts were mostly little
changed over the past year; however, the outlook for the
coming year was for prices to increase slightly faster
than normal. Retail fuel prices as of early January were
slightly lower in most areas of the District relative to the
I-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
previous reporting period. Prices received by farmers in
November increased from a year earlier for corn,
soybeans, dry beans, milk, hogs, eggs, and turkeys,
while cattle prices were unchanged and prices for wheat,
hay, and chickens decreased.
multifamily permitting.
Commercial real estate was modestly higher. Vacancy
rates in most subsectors in Minneapolis-St. Paul
remained stable. Despite persistent new construction of
multifamily units, continued low vacancy rates have led
to rising rents—roughly 5 percent in the past 12 months,
according to one source. Residential real estate fell
slightly overall, with mixed sales activity across the
District in November compared with a year earlier.
Northern and western counties of Wisconsin located in
the District saw higher sales, and Great Falls, Mont., saw
particularly robust activity. However, sales in Minnesota
were largely flat, while small declines were seen in
Bozeman and Missoula, Mont., and Sioux Falls, S.D.
Fargo and Grand Forks, N.D., experienced larger
declines.
Consumer Spending
Consumer spending increased moderately since the last
report. Most reports on holiday shopping and other
spending were positive. Sources in major markets in
Montana and the Dakotas reported good foot traffic in
stores. One source noted that a shorter holiday shopping
season this year provided steadier business overall. But
firms in greater Minnesota reported flat holiday sales.
Gross sales in South Dakota saw a healthy bump in
November compared with a year earlier, and the state’s
gambling handle also increased by almost 4 percent.
Sales tax collections in Minnesota grew by more than 3
percent in November, but gross sales in Wisconsin saw
a 4 percent decline. Poor snow conditions across much
of Montana meant slower activity early in the ski season.
Nevertheless, the broader winter skiing economy was
reportedly “booming” in Montana, with resorts making
significant capital investments in new lifts,
accommodations, and other amenities. However, Snow
conditions in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin were
reportedly good in December, with “quite a few
snowmobilers out on the trails” in some locations. Hotel
occupancy rates and revenue per room in Minnesota
rose slightly in November.
Manufacturing
District manufacturing activity was flat on balance from
the last report. Preliminary results from a survey of Ninth
District manufacturers indicated that firms generally
reported a slight decrease in orders, production, and
investment over the past year. However, expectations for
the coming year were generally positive. An index of
manufacturing conditions indicated increased activity in
December compared with a month earlier in South
Dakota, while activity was nearly flat in Minnesota and
decreased in North Dakota. In contrast, a Montana
staffing contact reported that manufacturers were
increasing their hiring late in the year. Producers of
construction inputs also reported solid recent sales.
Construction and Real Estate
Commercial construction grew modestly since the last
report. Construction spending saw a notable uptick in
November compared with a year earlier, according to an
industry database, with increases seen in every District
state except Wisconsin. A second industry database
showed that the number of new and active projects over
the most recent six-week period (through midDecember) were notably higher than during the same
period a year ago. Commercial permitting in the District’s
larger markets in November saw a modest increase
overall compared with a year earlier, with Rapid City and
Sioux Falls, S.D., continuing to see strong activity
overall. Individual contacts have generally reported
strong backlogs. A Minnesota contact said commercial
construction was “bouncing along the top,” and while
there was some expectation of a possible decrease in
2020, “the market is still operating at high levels.”
Residential construction grew modestly overall. The
value of November residential permits was widely higher,
with the notable exception of Minneapolis-St. Paul, which
broke a string of months with robust single- and
Agriculture, Energy, and Natural Resources
District agricultural conditions remained weak. Industry
contacts reported that trade conflicts combined with poor
weather put continued pressure on farm households,
with federal aid payments and insurance the only source
of relief for many producers. One contact called 2019
“the mother of all disasters.” In contrast, a dairy industry
source reported that the sector has begun to rebound,
and producers were becoming more bullish; Montana
wheat producers also had a strong year. District oil and
gas exploration activity was steady since the previous
report. The number of active drilling rigs as of early
January fell slightly from a month earlier, but the most
recent figures (as of October) indicated that oil
production hit a new record. ■
I-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Kansas City
The Beige Book ■ January 2020
Summary of Economic Activity
Tenth District economic activity edged up in late November and December, although conditions remained mixed across
sectors. Consumer spending rose modestly, driven by robust retail sales during the holiday shopping season. Contacts in
the wholesale trade and professional and high-tech services sectors also reported modestly higher sales, while sales in
the transportation sector decreased. Manufacturers continued to note slight declines in overall activity with ongoing weakness in durable goods factory activity. District real estate conditions held steady since the previous survey period, and
contacts expected conditions to remain stable moving forward. District energy activity fell further, and contacts expected
further declines in the months ahead. The agriculture sector remained weak despite rising commodity prices, and higher
revenue from rising prices was not expected to significantly improve farm finances. District employment rose modestly
since the previous survey period while employee hours held steady, and labor shortages were cited as the single biggest
problem among a majority of respondents. Wages continued to expand at a modest pace, and contacts expected moderate growth in the months ahead. Services sector contacts continued to note higher input and selling prices since the
previous survey period, while manufacturers and construction supply contacts noted slightly lower prices.
Employment and Wages
higher input prices and slightly lower selling prices, although both were above year-ago levels. Input and selling prices rose modestly in the restaurant sector, and
both were strongly higher than a year ago. Transportation contacts noted slightly higher input and selling prices
since the previous survey, but expected selling prices to
decline in the months ahead. Prices in the construction
supply sector decreased slightly, but remained above
year-ago levels. Construction supply prices were projected to decrease modestly in the next few months. Manufacturers reported slightly lower prices of finished products and raw materials, but prices were expected to hold
steady moving forward.
District employment rose modestly since the last survey
period, while employee hours held steady. Contacts
expected modest gains in employment and flat employee
hours in the months ahead. Respondents in all reporting
sectors noted job gains in late November and December,
except for the transportation and manufacturing sectors.
In addition, employment was above year-ago levels in all
reporting sectors with the exception of the auto sales
sector.
A majority of survey contacts cited labor shortages as
the single most important problem currently facing their
business. Specifically, contacts noted shortages for
hourly retail and food services positions, mechanics,
truck drivers, skilled construction, software developers,
pharmacists and nurse practitioners. Wages continued to
rise modestly since the previous survey period, and
moderate gains were expected in the months ahead.
Consumer Spending
Consumer spending increased modestly in late November and December as gains in retail and auto sales
offset spending declines in the restaurant and tourism
sectors. Retail sales increased robustly during the holiday shopping season compared to both the previous
survey period and year-ago levels. Contacts noted that
lower-priced and promotionally priced items sold well,
while higher-priced items sold poorly. Auto sales grew
moderately this survey period, however sales were
slightly below year-ago levels. A majority of auto respondents noted a decrease in net profit compared to
the previous year, and contacts anticipated sales to
decline slightly in the coming months. Restaurant and
Prices
Input and selling prices continued to rise modestly in late
November and December in the services sector, while
manufacturers and construction supply contacts noted
slightly lower prices. Both input and selling prices were
expected to increase in the months ahead for all services
sectors, while manufacturers projected steady prices.
Respondents in the retail trade sector reported modestly
J-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
tourism sales dropped compared to the previous survey
period, but remained above year-ago levels. Restaurant
contacts anticipated strong sales growth in the coming
months, while tourism contacts expected moderate gains
in the months ahead.
Banking
Overall loan demand decreased slightly since the previous survey period, although the change in demand was
mixed across categories. Bankers indicated a slight
decline in commercial real estate and agricultural loans
and reported a modest decrease in consumer and commercial and industrial loans. Demand for residential real
estate loans increased slightly. Respondents indicated a
slight improvement in loan quality compared to a year
ago and expected a slight increase in loan quality over
the next six months. Credit standards remained stable
across all loan categories. Overall deposit levels increased modestly, but a number of respondents indicated demand for certificate of deposits remained low during the survey period.
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity
Manufacturing activity continued to fall slightly in late
November and December primarily due to ongoing contractions in durable goods factory activity. However,
manufacturers expected a slight increase in activity in
the months ahead. Both durable and nondurable goods
plants experienced decreases in production, but shipments and new orders were up slightly at nondurable
goods plants compared to the previous survey period.
Capital spending was slightly above year-ago levels, and
contacts anticipated this rate of growth to continue in the
months ahead.
Energy
District energy activity continued to decrease since the
previous survey period, and expectations for future drilling and business activity remained downbeat. While the
number of active gas rigs held steady across District
states, the number of active oil rigs eased lower. Oil and
gas production slowed slightly, but remained at high
levels. Employment in the energy sector was below
levels from a year ago, and most regional firms expected
additional decreases. Low commodity prices were listed
as the biggest factor driving business plans over the next
six months. Credit conditions for District energy firms
also remained more difficult than a year ago. Despite
lower profit levels and less drilling and business activity,
District firms expected revenues to pick up over the next
six months.
Outside of manufacturing, firms in the transportation
sector experienced modestly lower sales, while sales
increased modestly for both the wholesale trade and
professional and high-tech services sectors. Sales for all
three sectors remained above year-ago levels. Contacts
in the transportation sector anticipated sales to edge
down in the coming months, whereas sales were expected to continue to rise in the wholesale trade and
professional and high-tech services sectors.
Real Estate and Construction
District real estate activity remained at similar levels to
the previous survey period, and contacts expected conditions to remain at current levels in the months ahead.
Residential real estate sales continued to hold steady in
late November and December compared to the previous
survey period and to year-ago levels. Residential construction activity also remained flat as housing starts
rose while construction supply sales and traffic of potential buyers fell. Contacts in the residential construction
sector expected overall activity to decline in the months
ahead. Commercial real estate activity edged up as
sales, absorption, construction underway, and completions rose while vacancy rates held steady. Expectations
for commercial real estate activity were for its current
pace of growth to continue over the next few months.
Agriculture
The Tenth District farm economy generally remained
subdued despite a modest increase in agricultural commodity prices. The prices of most major crops increased
moderately since the previous reporting period and crop
production in the Tenth District was expected to be similar to a year ago, resulting in expectations of slightly
higher revenues compared with the previous year. In the
livestock sector, cattle prices also increased modestly in
December and hog prices remained relatively stable,
which could provide additional support. The slight increase in agricultural prices and revenues, however, was
not expected to significantly improve the financial condition of producers in the District. ■
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.KansasCityFed.org/Research/RegionalEconomy
J-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Dallas
The Beige Book ■ January 2020
Summary of Economic Activity
The Eleventh District economy expanded solidly over the reporting period, with growth increasing in most sectors. The
energy sector remained weak, although drilling activity ticked up. Home sales continued to rise, even beating some
expectations. The agriculture picture remained mixed. Employment growth was moderate, and upward wage pressures
continued as labor availability remained a key concern. Selling prices were largely flat, while input prices continued to
rise. Outlooks generally improved, with reduced trade uncertainty boosting optimism.
Employment and Wages
Manufacturing
Employment expanded at a moderate pace overall,
although layoffs continued in the oil and gas sector. Most
energy contacts expect headcounts to fall further in
2020. Outside of the energy sector, hiring remained a
key challenge for many companies, with some contacts
expecting the lack of labor availability to continue to be a
drag on business growth. Some contacts also mentioned
that muted labor inflows from international and domestic
sources were contributing to worker shortages.
Modest expansion in the manufacturing sector resumed
in December after stalling out in November. Most
measures of manufacturing activity—including new
orders and capital expenditures—ended the year on a
slightly positive note. Food manufacturing was a particular bright spot, while energy-related manufacturing activity declined.
Refinery utilization was steady, although refiners and
chemical producers indicated that softening global demand, tariffs, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty were
keeping downward pressure on margins. Chemical contacts noted that the phase-one trade agreement with
China would remove tariffs from some forms of plastic
but leave tariffs in place on many other products.
Wages continued to increase. A survey of more than 300
Texas businesses showed that 2019 wage growth was
3.9 percent, on average, down from 4.5 percent in 2018
but about the same as in 2017. Expectations among
surveyed firms were for 3.8 percent wage growth in
2020, on average.
Nearly two-thirds of manufacturing contacts expect higher production this year versus 2019, and uncertainty
regarding outlooks abated notably at yearend.
Prices
Input prices continued to rise, except in the energy sector where they remained near a cyclical bottom. Some
contacts noted that progress on trade agreements decreased uncertainty around future costs. Selling prices
were largely flat, although a slight pickup was seen in the
service sector, particularly among retailers. Most contacts expect increases in input costs to continue to outpace selling price increases in 2020.
Retail Sales
Retail sales growth increased over the reporting period,
led by auto dealers and nondurable goods wholesalers.
Some contacts pointed to trade resolutions as a driver of
increased retail activity. Retail outlooks improved notably. Half of retail contacts expect higher sales in 2020
K-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
versus 2019, and 35 percent expect sales to be about
the same.
clines. Contacts indicated that the rig count was likely
near a soft bottom, although further declines are possible. The industry remained distressed as access to
capital was limited, especially for small firms. Bankruptcies were likely to rise, according to contacts. However,
U.S. crude oil production is still projected to grow in
2020.
Nonfinancial Services
Solid expansion was seen in nonfinancial services activity, a slight pickup from the prior reporting period. Growth
was led by transportation services, with small parcel
cargo volumes posting particular strength. Staffing services contacts indicated increased demand. Weaker
activity centered on the softness in the oilfield.
Agriculture
More than half of Texas remained abnormally dry or in
drought, although drought severity eased somewhat over
the reporting period. Agricultural producers expressed
concern over dry conditions damping crop production
next year. This is especially pertinent given relatively low
crop prices, as above-average production is needed in
order for farmers to achieve profitability. Cotton exports
were quite strong, and lower U.S. and world supplies
boosted price outlooks. The signing of the USMCA alleviated some uncertainty among agricultural producers,
and progress on U.S. and China trade disputes added
optimism. ■
Outlooks continued to improve, although political uncertainty remained a concern. Several contacts noted that
the passage of the USMCA should bolster growth by
giving more certainty to the business environment. Overall, a majority of contacts expect stronger revenues this
year.
Construction and Real Estate
Home sales rose broadly, with demand exceeding expectations in some areas thanks to healthy job growth
and low mortgage rates. Builders’ margins mostly held
steady, as builders were able to push through price
increases to cover increases in construction costs. Development in previously less desirable locations has
accelerated as builders focus on expanding offerings at
more affordable price points. Outlooks were favorable,
although a few contacts noted concern about the impact
of the 2020 elections on home buying activity.
Apartment demand remained healthy, with occupancy
flat to up year over year and rent growth holding above
long-term averages across most major Texas metros.
Activity in the office market was mixed in Houston, while
San Antonio and Dallas-Fort Worth saw steady demand.
Industrial demand generally remained strong, particularly
in DFW. New development of retail space remained
modest and was driven by grocery-anchored shopping
centers. Investor interest remained high for commercial
properties in Texas’ major markets.
Financial Services
Growth in loan demand increased over the reporting
period. Loan volume growth was broad based across all
lending categories, with real estate lending (both commercial and residential) continuing to lead growth. Bankers reported that loan pricing continued to decline, and
the vast majority noted no change in credit standards
and terms. Business activity improved since the last
reporting period, and expectations for activity six months
from now have improved slightly.
Energy
Drilling activity in the Eleventh District ticked up slightly
over the reporting period, after several months of de-
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.dallasfed.org/research/texas
K-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
San Francisco
The Beige Book ■ January 2020
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Twelfth District expanded at a modest pace during the reporting period of mid-November
through December. The labor market remained tight, employment growth picked up modestly, and wages rose further.
Reports on prices suggested inflation was up slightly on balance. Sales of retail goods increased moderately, and activity in consumer and business services was up modestly. The pace of commerce in the manufacturing sector was stable,
and activity in the agriculture sector was mixed. While the residential real estate market expanded strongly, commercial
real estate activity softened somewhat. Lending grew steadily.
Employment and Wages
tourism, and retail despite reports of decreasing labor
quality. A few employers in Seattle and Southern California highlighted regulatory increases in minimum wages
as an additional source of upward wage pressures. A
business services provider in the Pacific Northwest and
a hotelier in California each raised concerns about wage
compression in the face of increasing entry-level and
minimum wages. Employers across the District also
observed that benefit packages expanded, further increasing total labor costs.
The labor market remained tight, and employment
growth was up modestly on balance. Demand for workers remained elevated, though shortages of qualified
candidates somewhat stymied hiring growth. Businesses
in several sectors including health care, finance, and
information technology continued to experience difficulties in hiring high-skilled workers. Similarly, firms in retail,
agriculture, and construction reported increased job
vacancies across skill levels. A few contacts characterized worker shortages as a significant deterrent to business expansion. Worker turnover remained high, with
firms reporting increased investment in job training and
automation as ways to enhance productivity. In the
Pacific Northwest, business services and manufacturing
firms instituted shorter interview processes to counteract
the increased competition for workers. Conversely, some
firms in the consulting, counseling, and utilities sectors
reported stable hiring levels. Community bankers in
Oregon and Southern California saw a tick up in hiring
after some large banks in these regions laid off some of
their high-skilled payroll.
Prices
Reports on prices suggested that inflation was up slightly
on balance. Many businesses such as professional
service providers and financiers reported increased
prices due to a pickup in labor costs. Fees for transportation and logistics services continued to increase. Firms in
the technology and retail sectors highlighted that brisk
competition limited their ability to pass through wage
increases to final prices. Prices for telecommunications
services, health care, and utilities remained mostly unchanged. Some building materials producers reported
lower prices over the reporting period, but others noted
being able to charge higher prices following a pickup in
construction activity. Contacts in metals manufacturing
reported price declines.
Wages rose further across the District as companies
tried to attract and retain qualified workers. Wages
picked up across skill levels as labor markets remained
highly competitive. In the Mountain West, a contact in
the banking sector noted paying more than double the
prevailing market rate for some positions. Entry-level
wages also rose in many sectors including finance,
Retail Trade and Services
Sales of retail goods increased moderately. Most reports
indicated that consumer demand was robust over the
L-1
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
holiday season, with online sales growing faster than
brick-and-mortar sales. Retailers attributed strong sales
this season to consumers’ high disposable income,
adequate product inventory levels, and improved in-store
services and discounts. Luxury retailers reported a brisk
rise in sales, as did those in other specialized markets
such as home improvement products and pet pharmaceuticals. A few businesses that depend primarily on
brick-and-mortar sales noted a shorter holiday shopping
season and less foot traffic relative to previous years.
investment but also mentioned continued excess generating capacity.
Real Estate and Construction
Residential real estate activity expanded strongly. Reports from across the District noted that buyer demand
remained robust amid low inventories for both singlefamily and multi-family housing. Contacts attributed the
brisker demand to the low interest rate environment,
despite a recent tick up in mortgage rates in some areas.
Construction activity was up but somewhat restrained by
labor shortages. Some suppliers noticed elevated costs
for building materials due to high demand, but a few
others noted that materials’ availability had improved.
Contacts highlighted that home prices grew further,
noting that affordability concerns have led some buyers
to look for homes outside main urban areas. A financier
from Southern California mentioned slower demand for
high-end properties, noting that their development was
constrained by tighter financing options and longer processing times. A multi-family housing provider in Nevada
added that tenant demand for add-ons such as concierge and parcel services had also increased notably,
even as rents increased.
Activity in the consumer and business services sectors
was modestly stronger. Demand for health services and
insurance remained robust across the District, the latter
especially boosted by more comprehensive benefit packages in the face of tight competition for workers. Restaurants and food service providers reported solid sales
over the holidays, though a major quick service restaurant in the Pacific Northwest witnessed a slight dip in
sales over the reporting period. Holiday activity in the
tourism sector was mixed, with bookings for leisure
cruises and airline travel rising noticeably, while yearend occupancy rates at Southern California hotels were
down from earlier in the year.
Manufacturing
Activity in commercial real estate markets softened
somewhat. Demand for retail and office space in California weakened, with some reports noting little new construction. Commercial permitting also decreased in the
Central Valley of California over the reporting period,
though it remained stable in the Pacific Northwest. In
contrast, demand for industrial spaces, like warehouses
and distribution centers, remained elevated. Contacts
noted that very low vacancy rates and increased leasing
costs have spurred construction of new industrial spaces
across the District. In the Pacific Northwest, public infrastructure construction also increased.
Conditions in the manufacturing sector were stable on
net. Production in the metals recycling industry increased over the reporting period, though weak sales
abroad were still a drag. A more active housing market
and less competition from foreign producers stabilized
demand for domestic wood products. Contacts reported
that productivity increased and capacity utilization was
above historical averages. Metal manufacturers in the
Pacific Northwest reported healthy domestic demand
and less competition from abroad, but activity was down
somewhat on net. Activity in the electronics sector declined near year-end due to weakness in new orders.
Financial Institutions
Agriculture and Resource-Related Industries
Lending activity grew steadily. Most reports noted a
further pickup in demand for credit, especially mortgage
and personal credit. The commercial lending sector was
relatively less active, with most loans focusing on refinancing into lower interest rate contracts as opposed to
new investment or construction. In general, capital levels
and asset quality remained high, though lower interest
rates put some pressure on banks’ net interest margins
and profitability. Competition for loans continued to be
brisk, while that for deposits was comparatively mild. A
few banks reported tighter underwriting standards for
new loans. A financial technology company that lends
primarily to small businesses saw better than expected
activity and low default rates. ■
Activity in the agriculture sector was mixed. Reports from
contacts in the Central Valley of California indicated
most crop yields performed well despite reported water
shortages. Domestic agricultural product sales remained
at healthy levels, while sales abroad continued to suffer
from issues related to trade disputes and slowing foreign
economies. For example, sales of lumber increased
domestically following a rebound in the housing market,
but lower selling prices squeezed profits from export
markets. One report also mentioned slower activity in the
market for grapes. Activity in the livestock sector decreased somewhat, with demand for cattle and swine
products ticking down a bit. In the energy sector, a contact reported expectations for increased infrastructure
L-2
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (2020, January 28). Beige Book. Beige Book, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/beige_book_20200129
@misc{wtfs_beige_book_20200129,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Beige Book},
year = {2020},
month = {Jan},
howpublished = {Beige Book, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/beige_book_20200129},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}