Beige Book
For use at 2:00 PM EDT
Wednesday
July 13, 2022
The Beige Book
Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions
By Federal Reserve District
July 2022
Federal Reserve Districts
Minneapolis
Boston
New York
Chicago
San Francisco
Kansas City
Dallas
Alaska and Hawaii
are part of the
San Francisco District.
Cleveland
St. Louis
Philadelphia
Richmond
Atlanta
The System serves commonwealths and territories as follows: the New York Bank serves the
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands; the San Francisco Bank serves
American Samoa, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.
This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta based on information collected
on or before July 6, 2022.* This document summarizes comments received from contacts
outside the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve
officials.
National Summary
Boston
1
A-1
The Beige Book is a Federal Reserve System publication about current
economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. It characterizes regional economic conditions and prospects based on a variety
of mostly qualitative information, gathered directly from each District’s
sources. Reports are published eight times per year.
B-1
What is the purpose of the Beige Book?
First District
New York
Second District
Philadelphia
C-1
Third District
Cleveland
D-1
Fourth District
Richmond
E-1
Fifth District
Atlanta
F-1
Sixth District
Chicago
G-1
Seventh District
St. Louis
What is the Beige Book?
H-1
The Beige Book is intended to characterize the change in economic
conditions since the last report. Outreach for the Beige Book is one of
many ways the Federal Reserve System engages with businesses and
other organizations about economic developments in their communities. Because this information is collected from a wide range of contacts through a variety of formal and informal methods, the Beige Book
can complement other forms of regional information gathering. The
Beige Book is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve
officials.
How is the information collected?
Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers information on current economic
conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors, plus interviews and online questionnaires completed by businesses, community organizations, economists, market experts, and other
sources. Contacts are not selected at random; rather, Banks strive to
curate a diverse set of sources that can provide accurate and objective
information about a broad range of economic activities. The Beige
Book serves as a regular summary of this information for the public.
How is the information used?
Tenth District
The information from contacts supplements the data and analysis used
by Federal Reserve economists and staff to assess economic conditions in the Federal Reserve Districts. The qualitative nature of the
Beige Book creates an opportunity to characterize dynamics and identify emerging trends in the economy that may not be readily apparent in
the available economic data. This information enables comparison of
economic conditions in different parts of the country, which can be
helpful for assessing the outlook for the national economy.
Dallas
The Beige Book does not have the type of information I’m looking
for. What other information is available?
Eighth District
Minneapolis
I-1
Ninth District
Kansas City
J-1
K-1
Eleventh District
San Francisco
Twelfth District
L-1
The Federal Reserve System conducts a wide array of recurring surveys of businesses, households, and community organizations. A list of
statistical releases compiled by the Federal Reserve Board is available
here, links to each of the Federal Reserve Banks are available here,
and a summary of the System’s community outreach is available here.
In addition, Fed Listens events have been held around the country to
hear about how monetary policy affects peoples’ daily lives and livelihoods. The System also relies on a variety of advisory councils—
whose members are drawn from a wide array of businesses, non-profit
organizations, and community groups—to hear diverse perspectives on
the economy in carrying out its responsibilities.
National Summary
The Beige Book ■ July 2022
Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity expanded at a modest pace, on balance, since mid-May; however, several Districts reported growing
signs of a slowdown in demand, and contacts in five Districts noted concerns over an increased risk of a recession.
Most Districts reported that consumer spending moderated as higher food and gas prices diminished households’
discretionary income. Due to continued low inventory levels, new auto sales remained sluggish across most Districts.
Hospitality and tourism contacts cited healthy leisure travel activity with some noting an uptick in business and group
travel. Manufacturing activity was mixed, and many Districts reported that supply chain disruptions and labor shortages
continued to hamper production. Non-financial services firms experienced stable to slightly higher demand, and some
firms reported that revenues exceeded expectations. Housing demand weakened noticeably as growing concerns
about affordability contributed to non-seasonal declines in sales, resulting in a slight increase in inventory and more
moderate price appreciation. Commercial real estate conditions slowed. Loan demand was mixed across most Districts; some financial institutions reported increased customer usage of revolving credit lines, while others reported
weakening residential loan demand amid higher mortgage interest rates. Demand for transportation services was
mixed and reports on agriculture conditions across reporting Districts varied. While demand for energy products was
robust and oil and gas drilling activity picked up, production remained constrained by labor availability and supply chain
bottlenecks for critical components. Similar to the previous report, the outlook for future economic growth was mostly
negative among reporting Districts, with contacts noting expectations for further weakening of demand over the next six
to twelve months.
Labor Markets
Most Districts continued to report that employment rose at a modest to moderate pace and conditions remained tight
overall. However, nearly all Districts noted modest improvements in labor availability amid weaker demand for workers,
particularly among manufacturing and construction contacts. Most Districts continued to report wage growth. One third
of Districts indicated that employers were considering or had given employees bonuses to offset inflation related costs
while in two Districts, workers requested raises to offset higher costs. A quarter of Districts indicated wage growth will
remain elevated for the next six months, while a few noted that wage pressures are expected to subside later this year.
Prices
Substantial price increases were reported across all Districts, at all stages of consumption, though three quarters noted
moderation in prices for construction inputs such as lumber and steel. Increases in food, commodities, and energy
(particularly fuel) costs remained significant, though there were several reports that price inflation for these categories
had slowed compared with recent months but remained historically elevated. While several Districts noted concerns
about cooling future demand, on balance, pricing power was steady, and in some sectors, such as travel and
hospitality, firms were successful in passing through sizable price increases to customers with little to no pushback.
Most contacts expect pricing pressures to persist at least through the end of the year.
Highlights by Federal Reserve District
Boston
New York
Business activity expanded at a modest pace. Employment was flat as turnover remained high and wages
grew at an above-average rate. Prices increased at an
above-average pace. The outlook turned more cautious
or even pessimistic in cases. Most saw ongoing inflation
(and efforts to control it) as posing significant threats to
activity moving forward.
Economic growth slowed to a crawl in the latest reporting
period, as demand from households and businesses
weakened amidst ongoing labor shortages, supply backlogs, and elevated Covid levels. Tourism continued to
strengthen, while consumer spending and manufacturing
activity were flat. Businesses continued to report widespread increases in selling prices, input prices, and
wages. Optimism about the near-term outlook has eroded further.
1
National Summary
Philadelphia
St. Louis
Business activity continued to grow slightly. Manufacturing, among other sectors, appeared to decline, even as
activity in a few sectors remains below pre-pandemic
levels. Increased chatter about a future recession has
caused growth in employment, wages, and prices to
subside a bit. However, each of these measures is still
best described by its pace in the prior period of modest,
moderate, and strong, respectively.
Economic conditions have improved at a modest pace
since our previous report. Labor shortages eased slightly
but continued to place upward pressure on wages. Prices for energy and intermediate goods rose, but increases were passed through at a lower rate than in previous months. Homebuying slowed and consumer demand for services rose.
Cleveland
The region’s economy grew modestly since mid-May.
Labor demand weakened but remained at a high level,
while wage and price pressures remained strong. Manufacturing and services activity grew. Construction contacts reported little change and real estate contacts
reported modest declines. Minority and woman entrepreneurs expected flat to increased sales in the next month
but have lowered their profit expectations.
Minneapolis
Business activity declined slightly as households and
firms grappled with higher costs and rising interest rates.
Contacts expected further weakening in the near term.
Labor market conditions remained tight, although the
share of firms that increased staff levels or raised wages
has eased since the start of 2022. Reports of higher
nonlabor costs were widespread, and most firms raised
prices.
Kansas City
Richmond
Growth in the Tenth District slowed to a modest pace,
with mixed performance across segments of the regional
economy. Job growth was strong, but consumer spending softened. Several businesses indicated they began
to offer pre-paid gas cards or direct payments to offset
rising gas prices for workers. Rising interest rates deterred new growth in residential real estate and put some
initial pressure on community banks’ liquidity positions.
The regional economy grew modestly over the last several weeks, although there were some emerging signs of
slowing demand. Consumer spending remained generally solid, while manufacturers and service providers reported slowing to modest growth. Commercial and residential mortgage lending was hindered by rising interest
rates. Labor markets were tight and price growth remained elevated.
Dallas
Atlanta
Economic activity grew modestly. Labor markets were
tight, and wage pressures continued. Nonlabor costs
rose. Retail sales were solid. Leisure travel activity remained robust. Housing demand weakened. Commercial
real estate conditions were mixed. Manufacturing activity
was strong. Demand for transportation services was
mixed. Banking activity slowed.
Economic growth in the District slowed to a modest pace
partly due to elevated prices, rising interest rates, and
higher uncertainty hampering demand in manufacturing,
housing, and services. Input costs rose at a rapid clip,
though pass through was becoming more difficult for
firms. Outlooks were mostly negative and highly uncertain owing to concerns about a further slowdown in demand.
Chicago
San Francisco
Economic activity increased slightly. Employment increased moderately, business spending was up modestly, consumer spending rose slightly, and manufacturing
and construction and real estate declined slightly. Wages
and prices rose rapidly, while financial conditions tightened some. Agriculture income expectations for 2022
were little changed.
Economic activity strengthened modestly over the reporting period. Overall labor market conditions remained
tight. Wages and price levels increased further. Retail
sales moderated somewhat while demand for discretionary services fell. Conditions in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors were mixed. Residential real estate activity eased, and lending activity was unchanged on balance.
2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Boston
The Beige Book ■ July 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
Business activity continued to expand at a modest pace in recent weeks. Employment was flat as turnover remained
high and wages grew at an above-average rate. Prices continued to rise at a stable but above-average pace. Retailers
enjoyed strong sales growth, while travel-related activity rebounded sharply to near pre-pandemic levels. Manufacturers
had mixed results that yielded modest revenue gains on average, and software and IT services firms reported moderate
growth that mostly exceeded expectations. Commercial real estate contacts described activity as roughly steady, but
expressed growing concerns related to high borrowing and construction costs. Higher mortgage rates led to slightly
softer demand for homes, boosting inventories in some markets. With some exceptions, the outlook turned more cautious or even pessimistic. Many saw ongoing inflation (and efforts to control it) as posing significant threats to activity
moving forward.
price increases of 25-30 percent for frozen fish products.
Cost pressures intensified further for fuel and freight,
food commodities, and labor. Nonetheless, pass-through
was described as incomplete because of anticipated
consumer pushback, and some ruled out further price
increases moving forward. The risk of ongoing high
inflation was a central concern among many contacts,
who worried about its implications for consumer demand
and for their own profit margins.
Labor Markets
Employment was roughly flat on average among First
District contacts as wages continued to grow at an above
-average pace. Retailers experienced somewhat greater
ease in hiring, but others faced ongoing challenges in
finding and/or retaining workers. One IT firm raised its
headcount considerably year-to-date, but among other
contacts employment was either stable or, in the case of
one manufacturer, down moderately. The majority of
contacts reported either above-average or robust recent
wage increases. Some others planned to enact significant increases in the near future and a small minority
held wages fixed, citing previous wage increases or
enhancements to nonwage incentives. Looking ahead,
IT services contacts and one retailer planned to increase
staffing levels by slight to moderate margins, while manufacturers expressed no major hiring plans or, in one
case, planned on further layoffs to compensate for ongoing demand weakness.
Retail and Tourism
First District retail and tourism contacts enjoyed strong
sales growth recently. For both a clothing retailer and a
furniture seller, sales increased at a brisk pace, exceeding year-to-date expectations, as supply chain issues
eased. Despite that recent strength, retailers’ optimism
looking ahead was somewhat tempered by concerns
about inflation and a possible recession. Tourism contacts also reported accelerated growth in sales. Airline
passenger traffic through Boston rose at a rapid pace,
and as of June 2022 had reached 90 percent of its June
2019 level. Advance bookings for July and August
showed further gains, with improvements in all types of
travel. The number of travelers by cruise ship increased
sharply, but as of May 2022 passenger volume was still
less than half of its 2019 benchmark. The Greater Boston hotel occupancy rate in May 2022 rose 30 percentage points from its February 2022 level, and more than
doubled from a year earlier, to land at over 77 percent.
Prices
Prices increased at an above-average pace on balance.
Several firms enacted large or very large price increases
and some others were planning to impose new mark-ups
soon. Others raised or planned to raise effective prices
via reduced discounts, and a minority held prices firm or
(one case only) lowered them slightly. Notable price
increases included an 87 percent increase in Boston
hotel room rates between February and May of 2022, far
exceeding typical seasonal gains, and year-over-year
A-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Convention activity accelerated, with recent attendance
at roughly 80 percent of pre-pandemic levels and advance bookings poised to meet or exceed 2019 levels.
Tourism contacts were resoundingly optimistic for the
rest of 2022.
space requirements were mixed, but occupancy rates
remained well below pre-pandemic levels in downtown
areas. While office asking rents and vacancy rates were
flat, pressure for costly tenant improvements was significant and shorter-term leases were the norm. Industrial
leasing activity persisted at a solid pace amid historically
low vacancy rates, and industrial rents edged even higher. Retail leasing was stable. Two contacts noted a
significant slowdown in commercial property sales volume, and one noted a moderate decline in nonresidential
construction, developments that reflected rising interest
rates and sky-high building costs. Life sciences conversions also slowed amid concerns about tenants’ creditworthiness and a looming glut of space. The outlook
turned decidedly more pessimistic, as contacts expected
further declines in investment sales and construction
moving forward. Contacts largely expected leasing to
slow in the summer months for seasonal reasons, and
some saw a chance of weakness in the fall in response
to further interest rate increases and potentially worsening macroeconomic conditions.
Manufacturing and Related Services
Sales volume was flat or somewhat softer among most
manufacturers contacted this round, while one reported
robust sales growth. However, two firms that experienced weaker demand nonetheless had modest revenue
gains owing to output price increases. One contact with
stable recent sales noted that year-over-year sales were
still down significantly. In addition, a furniture manufacturer said that while April and May were very strong,
sales growth slowed considerably in June, coinciding
with the FOMC rate increase announcement. Contacts
faced intense input pricing pressures and some raised
prices further in recent months, but pass-through was
incomplete. Logistics remained a major problem for
some. Two contacts reported downward revisions to
capital expenditure plans due to long lead times for new
equipment and construction delays. Most contacts (with
one exception) held an optimistic outlook, but several
said they were more cautious than they had been earlier
in the year. In particular, inflation presented downside
risks for some and another faced uncertainty over future
sources of demand.
Residential Real Estate
First District contacts reported that higher mortgage
rates had led to somewhat cooler demand for residential
real estate, resulting in increased inventories in recent
months. (Vermont reported changes to April 2022 and all
other areas reported changes to May 2022. Connecticut
data were unavailable.) Closed sales declined again
significantly on a year-over-year basis in most markets,
but the pace of decline moderated from a month earlier
for seasonal reasons. However, closed sales increased
slightly over-the-year for single-family homes in Boston
and for condos in Rhode Island. Boston’s results were
attributed to seasonal factors as well as a rush to buy
before interest rates increased further. Inventories increased in most markets in recent months, reflecting a
softening of demand, but remained down on a year-overyear basis in several markets. The price of single-family
homes continued to rise at about the same year-overyear pace as a month earlier. However, condo markets
experienced downward price pressures. Going into the
summer, contacts were optimistic that residential inventories would increase further and that prices would level
off, developments that should offer some relief to potential buyers.■
Software and IT Services
Software and IT contacts experienced stable to moderately higher sales in the second quarter and reported
robust sales increases from a year earlier. Recent results exceeded expectations at two of three firms contacted, one of which benefited indirectly from the recent
rebound in elective surgeries. Operating margins increased modestly on average as conditions normalized
following pandemic-related disruptions. Capital and
technology spending was unchanged and was expected
to hold steady in the coming months. The overall economic outlook turned less optimistic this quarter due to
concerns about inflation and a possible recession. Nonetheless, all expected demand at their respective firms to
remain stable for at least the third quarter of 2022, barring significant changes to the macroeconomic environment.
Commercial Real Estate
First District commercial real estate leasing activity was
roughly steady in recent weeks, but investment activity
fell and the outlook worsened. Contacts reported that
office tenants approached leasing decisions with greater
clarity. In Connecticut, office downsizing led to substantial negative absorption. Elsewhere, changes in office
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
https://www.bostonfed.org/in-the-region.aspx
A-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
New York
The Beige Book ■ July 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic growth in the Second District slowed to a crawl in the latest reporting period, as demand from households and
businesses weakened amidst ongoing labor shortages, supply backlogs, and elevated Covid levels. Business optimism
about the near-term outlook has also eroded further. Businesses continued to report widespread increases in selling
prices, input prices, and wages, as well as ongoing difficulty obtaining necessary supplies. Despite severe labor shortages and high turnover, businesses have continued to add workers and plan to continue doing so in the second half of
the year. Both manufacturing activity and consumer spending have been flat in recent weeks, while tourism activity has
accelerated. There were pronounced signs of easing in the home sales market, whereas the rental market was increasingly robust. Commercial real estate markets were mixed but generally steady. Construction activity has picked up, with
a good deal of multifamily residential development in progress. Finance-sector contacts reported some weakening in
activity, while regional banks reported widespread declines in loan demand and refinancing activity, as well as tighter
credit standards and steady delinquencies.
Labor Markets
for both energy and freight continued to be cited widely.
In the construction sector, while lumber prices have
eased, costs of engineered wood products (e.g., doors
and windows) have reportedly continued to rise. Contacts across the board expect input prices to rise further
in the months ahead.
Businesses continued to report widespread labor shortages, restraining both new hiring and retention, though
one employment agency noted that workers have become more reluctant to change jobs. Particularly acute
labor shortages were reported in technology and
healthcare occupations. Still, a sizable proportion of
businesses indicated that they continue to add staff—
particularly in the wholesale trade and information sectors, as well as in transportation and professional & business services. One contact noted increasing job openings for call centers. Firms in all major industry sectors
except finance plan to add staff in the second half of this
year.
Businesses continued to note widespread escalation in
their selling prices, particularly in the manufacturing and
distribution industries. A majority of businesses said they
plan further price hikes in the months ahead.
Consumer Spending
Consumer spending has been essentially flat in recent
weeks. Non-auto retailers reported that business has
been steady to weaker in the latest reporting period.
Contacts have also become more pessimistic about the
near-term outlook. Auto dealers in upstate New York
reported that sales of both new and used vehicles have
been sluggish in recent weeks, largely reflecting the
ongoing lack of inventory, as well as affordability issues.
Consumer confidence among New York State residents
fell in May but rebounded modestly in June; it is roughly
on par with pre-pandemic levels and still fairly high by
historical standards.
Businesses continued to note widespread wage increases and anticipated further increases in the months ahead.
One employment agency noted that more employees are
using counter-offers to raise their salaries in their current
jobs. Wage gains have been most pronounced in the
construction, transportation, and warehousing sectors.
Prices
Most business contacts noted ongoing broad-based
escalation in input prices. In particular, escalating costs
B-1
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
drop-off in sales to a combination of low affordability, rising
mortgage rates, and increased uncertainty. There has also
been a rise in the inventory of available homes—though it
is still quite low—but not a reduction in prices thus far.
Real estate contacts in upstate New York continued to
characterize the market as strong, though less so than in
recent months—for instance, bidding wars still occur but
with fewer bidders competing and some sellers have lowered their asking prices.
Manufacturing and Distribution
Manufacturing activity has been essentially flat since the
last report, but growth picked up somewhat in the wholesale trade industry and remained moderately strong in
the transportation & warehousing industry. For the first
time in well over a year, manufacturers reported a slight
decline in unfilled orders, and expect that these, as well
as delivery times, will decline noticeably in the months
ahead. Contacts have yet to see improvement in supply
availability, but manufacturers expect disruptions and
delays to diminish over the second half of this year.
In contrast, residential rental markets have strengthened
noticeably, with substantial escalation in rents, low vacancy rates, and brisk leasing activity. In New York City, rents
rose sharply during the 2nd quarter, setting new records,
and rental vacancy rates are at a 20-year low. Rents have
also risen sharply in upstate New York. With rents rebounding to well above pre-pandemic levels in New York
City and elsewhere, affordability has been a widespread
and growing concern.
Services
Activity in the service sector has remained essentially flat
in the latest reporting period. Professional & business
service firms indicated a slight increase in activity,
whereas education & health service providers saw a
slight decline. Contacts in the information and leisure &
hospitality sectors noted a pause in growth. Businesses
in these sectors remain mildly optimistic about the nearterm outlook.
Commercial real estate markets have been mixed since
the last report. Office markets across the District were
steady to slightly weaker, with vacancy rates edging up in
Manhattan and the Lower Hudson Valley but little changed
elsewhere. Office rents were flat to up slightly and close to
pre-pandemic levels, except in Manhattan. The industrial
market has remained firm, with vacancy rates leveling off
but rents continuing to rise briskly. The market for retail
space has remained sluggish.
In New York City, however, tourism has continued to
flourish. A local industry expert noted that both business
travel and international visitors have picked up to a surprising degree in recent weeks, though visits from Asia
continue to lag (mainly attributed to home country restrictions). Removal of inbound restrictions in the U.S.
seems to be boosting visits, and this trend is expected to
continue. Manhattan’s hotel occupancy rate has now
rebounded to over 75 percent, with mid-week occupancy
surpassing weekend levels at around 90 percent—partly
due to longer stays and more business travelers. Occupancy is now roughly on par with pre-pandemic levels.
While a number of hotels are still housing the homeless,
as well as emergency personnel and health workers, this
now accounts for under 10 percent of occupancy. In
addition, the average daily room rate has climbed above
pre-pandemic levels to well above $300. With business
on the rebound, some closed hotels have reopened or
plan to do so soon. Attendance at trade shows and
medium to large corporate meetings have trended up,
and out-year bookings have also picked up.
Construction activity has been mixed but picked up somewhat overall. Nonresidential construction starts have remained exceptionally low, whereas multifamily residential
construction starts have increased across most of the
District, with the notable exception of Manhattan—though
even there a sizable volume of construction is still in progress.
Banking and Finance
Contacts in the broad finance sector reported marked
worsening in the general business climate, a decline in
activity, and growing pessimism about the near-term outlook. Bankers reported lower loan demand across all consumer and business loan segments. Refinancing activity
also decreased. Credit standards tightened somewhat
across all loan categories, while delinquency rates were
little changed. ■
Real Estate and Construction
Housing markets have been mixed since the last report,
with the rental market continuing to strengthen but the
sales market weakening noticeably. Both in New York
City and across the metropolitan region, there has been
a steady and pronounced decline in signed contracts in
both May and June, going against normal seasonal
trends. A leading local real estate authority attributed this
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
https://www.newyorkfed.org/regional-economy
B-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia
The Beige Book ■ July 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
On balance, business activity in the Third District continued to grow slightly. Modest growth of broad nonfinancial services outweighed declines in manufacturing and some service sectors; in a few sectors, supply constraints obscured
whether demand had declined. Employment continued to grow modestly, despite increased talk of a recession. Wage
and price inflation subsided further for most firms but still remained at a moderate and strong pace, respectively. Most
firms continued to note hiring difficulties and supply chain disruptions as their key challenges, while the rate of COVID19 cases in the District has fallen by half and is currently lower than the national average. On balance, expectations for
continued economic growth over the next six months remained positive but edged lower for all firms and were well
below their nonrecessionary historical averages. Among manufacturers, although expectations turned negative, firms
are hesitant to consider layoffs after struggling to rehire workers following the pandemic shutdowns.
Labor Markets
Most firms, including staffing firms, continued to note that
wage growth is slowly subsiding. However, wage inflation remains widespread and appears to have maintained a moderate pace. In our monthly surveys, the
share of nonmanufacturing firms reporting higher wage
and benefit costs per employee has held steady at about
three-fifths since April. Very few firms reported lower
compensation, as has been true for the past year.
Employment continued to grow modestly. Scattered
reports of layoffs, attrition, or hiring freezes have appeared as chatter about a future recession has increased. However, the share of firms reporting employment increases edged up to near one-third among nonmanufacturing firms and among manufacturers. Moreover, staffing companies reported no signs that job orders had slowed.
Prices
Prices appear to have continued growing at a strong
pace. Price increases for manufacturers’ factor inputs
were less widely reported; however, more firms reported
price increases throughout much of the downstream
supply chain, including prices faced by consumers.
Though the price increases were more widespread,
comments tended to note that their rate had eased.
In fact, several contacts noted that manufacturing firms
were hesitant to lay off workers, given the difficulty they
have experienced rehiring after the pandemic closures.
Looking ahead six months, the share of manufacturers
that expect to hire more workers fell further to one-fifth
from one-third in the prior period.
Overall, most firms still describe hiring and retention as
challenges. A majority of firms reported that labor market
problems had been a moderate or significant constraint
to their second-quarter production. However, most firms
have noted some easing of hiring challenges since the
first quarter. In particular, retention is improving, and
more workers are applying; however, labor quality and
reliability remain poor. With the expectation that labor
challenges will persist, contacts continued to note heavy
investment in automation.
The share of manufacturers reporting higher prices for
factor inputs fell to 70 percent, and the share receiving
higher prices for their own products held steady at 52
percent. The share of nonmanufacturers reporting higher
prices for their inputs rose to 80 percent, while the share
receiving higher prices from consumers for their own
goods and services rose to 38 percent.
A majority of firms reported that supply chain disruptions
had been a moderate or significant constraint to their
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Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
second-quarter production. While firms have noted an
easing of supply chain problems since the first quarter,
most firms remain uneasy about the disruptions.
in sales and in new orders rose, while the share of firms
that reported decreases edged lower in both categories.
Just over three-fifths of the manufacturers expect to pay
higher prices for their factor inputs over the next six
months. While still a historically high share, the percentage reached an all-time peak in January at nearly fourfifths and has fallen in four of the following five months.
Also, just over half expect the prices they receive to
increase – the lowest percentage since March 2021.
The volume of bank lending (excluding credit cards)
grew moderately during the period (not seasonally adjusted) – a similar pace as seen during the same period
in 2019. However, growth was more balanced in 2019;
now, individual loan segments are behaving much differently. Moreover, inflation is contributing more to the
growth during the current year relative to past years.
Financial Services
Loan volumes grew at a moderate to strong pace for
home mortgages and commercial and industrial lending.
According to a lender, gains in the latter reflect a return
to banks by borrowers who have found the current bond
market too expensive. Contacts noted that rising interest
rates and expectations of a slowdown have virtually
eliminated growth in commercial real estate loans and
home equity lines, while auto lending and other consumer loans grew slightly, at best. Credit card volumes appeared to continue growing moderately – a typical pace
for this season of the year.
Manufacturing
On average, current manufacturing activity appeared to
decline slightly. The indexes for shipments and new
orders fell significantly, with new orders turning negative.
Moreover, sentiment weakened further, as the index of
current general activity also turned negative.
Likewise, the indexes for future general activity and
future new orders both turned negative, while the index
for future shipments fell to nearly zero. Nevertheless,
manufacturing firms’ expectations for future capital expenditures edged higher from the index’s six-year low.
Real Estate and Construction
Consumer Spending
On balance, contacts reported that sales traffic and
contract signings for new homes fell modestly, more so
for high-end houses. One contact noted that customers
were waiting for lower rates or lower prices.
Retailers (nonauto) and restaurateurs reported a slight
decline in overall sales – the first negative reports since
early 2021. Contacts noted either less customer traffic or
smaller purchases per visit, if not both. One contact
noted that the firm would normally strive to increase
traffic but currently can’t staff up for it.
Brokers noted that existing home sales continued to fall
slightly, and that signs had emerged of a cooler market.
While overall prices continued to rise on a year-overyear basis, one broker noted a significant number of
price reductions in a recent 24-hour period. However,
housing affordability remains a challenge, and rents
remain high.
On balance, auto dealers reported little change to the
weak level of sales observed during the prior period;
sales remained significantly below the levels in 2019.
The constrained supply makes it difficult to observe
demand; however, some contacts feel that high prices
and rising interest rates have reduced demand below the
industry’s potential capacity.
On balance, construction activity and leasing activity for
commercial real estate continued to hold steady. The
markets for industrial/warehouse space, multifamily
housing, and institutional projects remained strong.
Contacts are still waiting for clarity into the office market
with the presumption of a further downward adjustment
in space needs. However, the office market has been
gradually adjusting through conversions to other uses. ■
Overall, tourism grew slightly – at a slower pace than in
the prior period. Continued improvements in business
travel were offset by reported flattening of leisure travel
and some cancellations of business meetings, especially
in the tech sector. Many contacts noted that high gas
prices and airfares had contributed to lower demand
from leisure travelers, but contacts from some local
properties noted rising competition from cruise lines and
international tourism.
Nonfinancial Services
On balance, nonmanufacturing activity grew modestly –
rebounding somewhat from the prior period’s slight pace
of growth. Overall, the share of firms reporting increases
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys‐and‐data/
regional‐economic‐analysis
C-2
Summary of Economic Activity
-
Labor Markets
Prices
D-1
Consumer Spending
Financial Services
-
Professional and Business Services
Manufacturing
Freight
Real Estate and Construction
-
-
D-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Richmond
The Beige Book ■ July 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
Since our previous report, the regional economy continued to expand modestly, although there were emerging signs of
softening demand. Manufacturers reported declines in shipments and new orders; at the same time, they continued to
struggle with supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and rising costs. Fifth District ports continued to report that
imports outpaced exports. Meanwhile, trucking firms reported some easing of freight conditions and a modest increase
in labor availability. Retailers reported some reduced demand for their goods, although sourcing remained difficult and
inventories stayed low. Leisure travel, on the other hand, held strong and business travel started to come back. Real
estate markets—residential and commercial—were tight, although in some residential markets, inventories of homes for
sale and days on market increased from low levels. Financial institutions reported slowing in commercial loan demand,
which they attributed to rising interest rates. Residential mortgage lending also slowed, but auto lending remained
strong. Nonfinancial services firms generally reported moderate growth and solid demand but some expressed uncertainty about the future. Labor markets remained tight, although there was some emerging signs of improved labor availability. Price growth remained robust although, again, there were some incipient signs of slowing growth in recent
weeks.
Labor Markets
Manufacturing
The Fifth District labor market remained tight and employment grew modestly, although there was some indication of increased worker availability as fewer survey
contacts reported trouble finding workers with the right
skills. To attract and retain workers, firms increased
wages, and looked for other ways to improve retention.
Employment grew particularly in leisure and hospitality,
where firms reported an increase in tourism and conference activity. Firms broadly expected employment to
grow in the next six months.
Since our previous report, Fifth District manufacturers
reported a modest decline in demand, while supply chain
frictions persisted. Many firms reported decreases in
both shipments and new orders from last cycle, which a
few firms attributed to rising consumer prices and a shift
in consumption from durable goods to services. Survey
contacts reported switching suppliers to improve lead
times as a way to meet customer demand, but this had
mixed results. Backlogs persisted while vendor lead
times remained extended. Meanwhile, finished goods
and raw materials inventories rose.
Prices
Ports and Transportation
Overall, price growth remained significantly elevated in
recent weeks, although the growth did not steepen.
Service sector firms reported increased growth in input
prices, but some flattening in output price growth. Manufacturers, on the other hand, reported a moderation in
input price growth, but a slight pickup in output price
growth. Compared to last year, prices were still increasing at a high rate. Firms across industries continued to
report that shortages of materials, rising fuel costs, and
steep transportation costs contributed to price rises. Most
firms continued to increase wages in an effort to recruit
Fifth District ports continued to experience record volumes, with imports far outpacing exports. There were
also record numbers of empty containers leaving the
ports. However, most ports reported that loaded exports
fell this period, partially due to inland constraints. Inland
terminals and warehouses were full, and railroads were
still restricting the number of containers taken to match
available terminal, warehouse, drayage, and chassis
capacity. Grain and feed exports were down although
the ports expect volumes to increase this summer due to
the decreased supply to other countries from eastern
Europe. Overall, the dwell time for containers decreased
compared to the last report. Spot shipping rates contin-
and retain workers.
E-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
ued to decline but remained well above 2019 levels. Air
freight volume was down slightly this period while air
freight rates increased due to higher fuel costs.
suburban markets. Retail vacancy rates continued to
edge down although shopping centers that experienced
higher store closures during the pandemic were still
struggling. New commercial construction was hampered
by a lack of availability of some materials as well as a
shortage of skilled workers. Respondents noted that
rising interest rates slowed sales activity with the exception of stabilized properties, especially industrial and
multifamily, which continued to sell at high prices due to
strong leasing demand and increasing rental rates.
Trucking companies reported that demand remained
strong, but there were signs of expanding truckload
capacity. Trucking firms reported some decrease in
booked orders and declining spot rates, although fuel
surcharges reduced most of the cost savings. Most
trucking companies indicated that drivers have become
more available and turnover has decreased due to
increased wages and benefits and a return of independent owner-operator drivers to freight lines. Respondents
noted continued challenges sourcing new equipment
and obtaining parts to service their existing fleet.
Banking and Finance
Loan demand began to slow for most commercial loan
types, with this easing attributed primarily to rising interest rates. Residential mortgage demand continued to
slow because of higher rates and limited housing stock.
Auto lending, especially used autos, continued to be
strong with respondents noting very little effect on demand from higher rates or limited inventories. Deposit
growth was mixed: some institutions reported slowing
due to rising prices increasing consumers’ need for cash,
but other institutions reporting increased growth attributed to a flight to safety. Overall credit quality remained
good, and delinquencies remained low. Loan quality
was stable.
Retail, Travel, and Tourism
Since our last report, many retailers reported that sales
had started to decline slightly. In addition, rising costs
reduced consumer demand for products and services.
Retailers noted that the supply chain has been unreliable for new inventory. Automotive dealers stated that
due to production interruptions, their vehicle inventory
continued to be extremely low. Additionally, demand
was negatively affected by higher vehicle costs and
rising interest rates. Several respondents mentioned
increasing wages and benefits in order to reduce turnover and attract workers. In the Fifth District, leisure travel
remained strong and contacts reported that both group
and business travel had started to come back. Both
hotel occupancy rates and average daily rates increased
in recent weeks. Passenger counts at airports were
robust, but there remained issues with flight cancellations due to lack of flight crews. Hospitality firms continued to struggle with workforce shortages despite higher
wages and benefits.
Nonfinancial Services
Nonfinancial service providers continued to report moderate growth and solid demand. Contacts were concerned that their increased costs could hamper growth
and negatively impact employment. One employment
firm noted they expect to reduce headcount by the fall
because rising interest rates will force clients to reduce
project spending. One professional services firm reported that recession concerns caused their clients to consider a decrease in spending. Finding employees remains a top concern of respondents. Many of them are
increasing wages and benefits to reduce turnover and
attract talent. ■
Real Estate and Construction
Respondents indicated that the residential real estate
market remained competitive. However, contacts reported there was a shift in market activity to slightly lower
sales volumes and a reduction in buyer traffic, which
they attributed to higher mortgage rates. Inventories of
homes for sale and days on market increased in the last
month while growth in listing prices for homes started to
soften. Nonetheless, in many markets the shortage of
new homes persisted, as did the slowing of new home
completion due to supply chain disruptions. Potential
homebuyers were being priced out of the housing market by the interest rate increases and higher home prices, particularly first-time homebuyers.
Overall, commercial real estate activity remained strong.
Availability of Class A office tightened, especially in
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.richmondfed.org/research/data_analysis
E-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Atlanta
The Beige Book ■ July 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Sixth District expanded modestly from mid-May through June, albeit at a slightly slower pace.
Labor markets remained tight and wage pressures persisted. Some nonlabor costs continued to rise. Firms’ pricing
power remained steady. Retailers experienced solid demand, on balance, and demand for new autos increased but was
hindered by low inventory; used vehicle sales declined Leisure travel activity was robust, and business travel improved.
Demand for housing slowed amid record home prices and rising mortgage interest rates. Commercial real estate activity
remained mixed. Manufacturing demand remained strong. Transportation activity was mixed. Deposit growth slowed at
financial institutions, but demand for loans increased.
Labor Markets
Consumer Spending and Tourism
Labor market conditions were largely unchanged from
the previous report. Most contacts continued to report
tightness. Competition for employees remained high and
turnover was elevated by most accounts; some reported
modest improvements in labor availability. Firms continued to adapt their businesses and policies, including
more widespread adoption of flexible work arrangements, to attract and retain workers. Some firms reported shifting the composition of their workforce to more
part-time staff to reduce benefits costs or attract candidates in or near retirement. Contacts reported increasing
training and workforce development efforts to upskill
staff, and some were streamlining operations, enabling
them to grow without the need to hire.
District retail contacts reported healthy sales levels, on
balance, since the previous report; however, some segments, such as furniture and apparel, experienced a
slight softening. Rising gas and food prices were noted
as cause for growing uncertainty for the remainder of the
year. Automotive dealers reported strong demand for
new vehicles, which continued to be hampered by inventory shortages, while used vehicles sales declined.
Travel and tourism contacts reported that business travel
and convention activity continued to recover, with solid
bookings for the fall. Leisure travel activity remained
robust as summer began. While travelers’ per capita
spending remained elevated, contacts shared concerns
about rising prices weakening long-term demand.
Reports of upward pressure on wages persisted, particularly among lower-wage positions. Firms noted providing
recruitment and retention bonuses, and a number reported giving bonuses to help offset higher gas and housing
costs. Several employers anticipate wage pressures to
subside later this year.
Construction and Real Estate
Housing demand throughout the District continued to
slow as affordability declined. Home prices reached
record levels while mortgage rates rose sharply. The
combination of these factors led to a sharp drop in affordability throughout the District. Mortgage originations
and pending sales fell in most markets compared with
year-earlier levels, as more potential buyers were priced
out of the market. Still, the number of days on market
remained near record lows. Supply chain disruptions and
cost inflation moderated somewhat for new homes.
However, builders reported greater buyer resistance to
price increases and the need to offer incentives, such as
covering closing costs, to sell homes.
Prices
District contacts noted continued cost increases over the
reporting period, particularly for concrete, steel, and
petroleum-based products like plastics and resin. Several contacts, however, noted a slight decrease in freight
costs due to slowing demand. Pricing power was described as moderately stable. The Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations survey showed year-overyear unit cost growth ticked up slightly to 4.3 percent, on
average, from 4.2 percent in May. Firms' year-ahead
inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.7 percent, on average.
F-1
District commercial real estate (CRE) contacts reported
strong demand in the multifamily and industrial segments. However, concerns regarding a slowdown in the
industrial market grew over the reporting period. In the
lower-tier office segment, contacts reported a slight
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
plants and/or export terminals. Utility contacts reported
that the recent heat wave put pressure on utility systems
and some regions were at high risk of interrupted service
due to heightened demand and insufficient generation
capacity. Utilities also experienced higher fuel and power
costs which are expected to eventually result in higher
utility bills for customers. Investment in renewables
remained robust, particularly in solar and offshore wind,
as well as recently announced carbon capture facilities in
the District.
deceleration. Employers’ returning to the office mitigated
some of the downward trend in the office sector; however, heightened levels of sublease space remained an
impediment to recovery. Some CRE contacts reported
elevated concerns regarding potential declines in CRE
values. Contacts noted increased instances of buyers
seeking concessions, shrinking pools of buyers, and
declining prices in some property sectors.
Manufacturing
District manufacturers reported continued strong demand and increased revenues, on balance. However,
several firms indicated that production remained hindered by supply chain disruptions and persistent employee turnover. A few contacts reported some slowing in
sales which resulted in cancelled shifts and an elimination of overtime. Some firms cited increasing uncertainty
about future production amid rising interest rates and
costs, and ongoing concerns over supply chain interruptions.
Agriculture
Agricultural conditions remained mixed. Most of the
District was drought free. On a month-over-month basis,
the June production forecast for Florida's orange crop
increased slightly from the previous forecast, but was still
well below last season’s production. The USDA reported
year-over-year prices paid to farmers in April were slightly up for cattle corn, cotton, eggs, milk, soybeans, rice,
and broilers. On a month-over-month basis, prices decreased for broilers, corn, cotton, eggs, milk, rice, and
soybeans. Cattle prices were unchanged. ■
Transportation
Transportation activity in the District was mixed. Port
contacts again cited record container volumes. In air
cargo, demand remained robust even as carriers raised
prices. Activity for inland barge companies was flat since
the previous report. Railroads experienced continued
declines in total rail traffic, but intermodal traffic improved
slightly. Trucking firms reported further slowing in domestic freight and an easing of capacity constraints.
While expected to eventually dissipate, contacts suggested that supply chain disruptions could persist for the
next year or beyond.
Banking and Finance
Activity at District financial institutions slowed amid rising
interest rates. Mainly, deposit growth decelerated, and
financial institutions slowed expansion of securities
portfolios. Still, most loan portfolios grew, except for
construction and development loans at larger institutions.
Some portfolios, such as agriculture loans and credit
cards, experienced higher delinquency rates, though
those rates remained below pre-pandemic levels. The
allowance for credit losses, as a percentage of nonperforming loans, remained sufficient for the existing credit
environment.
Energy
Demand for refined products was robust. Oil refining
remained at historically high production levels and some
refiners delayed maintenance projects to ensure supply
availability. Natural gas production rose, and exports
soared amid increasing global demand. Contacts reported planned or ongoing domestic pipeline projects to
transport natural gas from producers to processing
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
https://www.atlantafed.org/economy‐matters/regional‐
economics.aspx
F-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago
The Beige Book ■ July 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Seventh District increased slightly overall in late May and June, and contacts expected growth
to remain slow in the coming months, with many expressing concerns about the potential for a recession. Employment
increased moderately, business spending was up modestly, consumer spending rose slightly, and manufacturing and
construction and real estate declined slightly. Wages and prices rose rapidly, while financial conditions tightened some.
Agriculture income expectations for 2022 were little changed.
Labor Markets
and lumber costs. Consumer prices generally moved up
robustly due to solid demand, limited inventories, and
passthrough of higher costs. A number of business- and
consumer-facing contacts indicated that they were experiencing limited pushback on price increases from customers, but others said they were only able to pass on
some of their higher costs.
Employment increased moderately over the reporting
period, and contacts expected a similar pace of growth
over the next 12 months. Many contacts continued to
report difficulty in finding workers across sectors and at
all skill levels. That said, some indicated finding workers
had become easier. A number of firms noted that a lack
of staffing prevented them from operating at desired
capacity. Some manufacturers were sufficiently staffed
for current conditions but would not be if their supply
chain issues were resolved. Overall, wage and benefit
costs increased rapidly and were aimed both at attracting new workers and retaining existing talent. In addition
to labor market tightness, contacts cited high inflation as
an impetus for workers requesting wage increases.
Numerous contacts were implementing mid-year wage
bumps on top of their usual annual increases to keep up
with quickly rising market wages.
Consumer Spending
Consumer spending increased slightly over the reporting
period, though there were signs that discretionary spending was slowing. Rising costs were squeezing some
retailers’ margins. One contact noted that when higher
costs were passed through to consumers, lower income
shoppers were trading down and buying more in-store
brands, while higher income shoppers were buying more
goods in bulk. Nonauto retail sales increased slightly, led
by higher grocery and gasoline sales. Demand softened
in some durable goods sectors, notably furniture and
electronics. Some retailers indicated that because of
high inventories, the upcoming back-to-school season
would feature more promotions than last year. Light
vehicle sales increased slightly overall: Sales of used
vehicles were up, but new vehicle sales changed little as
they were still constrained by low inventories. New light
vehicle prices were unchanged but used light vehicle
prices fell slightly. Some auto dealers commented that,
Prices
Overall, prices rose rapidly in late May and June, though
the pace of growth slowed a bit, and contacts expected a
further slowdown over the next 12 months. There were
large increases in producer prices, spurred by
passthrough of higher costs for labor, energy, and shipping. Raw materials cost pressures eased somewhat,
with contacts highlighting lower steel, copper, aluminum,
G-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
unlike during prior periods of high gas prices, consumers
weren’t looking to trade in light trucks for cars to save on
fuel costs.
cle inventories. Demand for heavy machinery was up
modestly, led by growth in the agriculture sector. Primary
metals contacts noted modestly lower demand across a
range of sectors. There was a small decrease in demand
for fabricated metals, with contacts reporting declines in
the automotive sector but growth in agriculture.
Business Spending
Business spending increased modestly overall in late
May and June. Retail inventories were up modestly, with
elevated levels reported in some sectors but low levels in
others where supply chain bottlenecks persisted. On
balance, manufacturing inventories were moderately
elevated, as numerous contacts reported they were
building up “just-in-case” stocks of available inputs and
that they were forced to hold on to nearly completed
products while they waited for a small number of missing
parts to arrive. Retail and manufacturing contacts expected inventory challenges to persist into 2023. Demand for transportation services was little changed and
remained high. Capital expenditures increased modestly,
with contacts reporting purchases of new equipment as
well as technology for hybrid work environments. Lead
times remained lengthy for some types of capital equipment. One contact noted that higher interest rates had
made them more cautious about capital spending plans.
Commercial and retail energy consumption increased
slightly, with no change in industrial energy consumption.
Banking and Finance
Financial conditions tightened some on balance over the
reporting period. Participants in the equity and bond
markets reported rising interest rates, elevated volatility,
and net declines in asset values. Business loan demand
was little changed overall, though one contact noted that
revolver usage had been rising steadily and attributed
the increase to rising input costs. Business loan quality
was unchanged, while standards tightened some, as
contacts expressed greater uncertainty about the future
state of the economy. In consumer markets, loan volumes decreased modestly, with contacts continuing to
note large declines in mortgage refinancing in the face of
rising rates. Consumer loan quality was stable, while
standards loosened a bit.
Agriculture
Contacts continued to expect agricultural incomes to be
solid for most producers in 2022. Despite worries about
supply chain problems, inputs were largely reaching
farms in time. Heavy rains in some areas diluted fertilizer
and created ponds in fields, hurting potential yields; in
other areas there were concerns about dryness and
heat. Still, corn and soybean conditions were close to
average for much of the District. Corn and soybean
prices fell some over the reporting period, while milk
prices were generally higher. After widespread flock
losses from bird flu, egg-laying capacity began to return
and egg prices edged down from elevated levels. Hog
and cattle prices increased. Farmland prices moved
higher once more. ■
Construction and Real Estate
Construction and real estate activity decreased slightly
on balance over the reporting period. There was a small
decline in residential construction. While demand for
multi-family space stayed healthy, some existing projects
were paused because of cost pressures. Residential real
estate activity decreased modestly. Rising mortgage
rates were a factor pushing down the number of offers
per house; still, home prices were up slightly. Rents rose
modestly. Nonresidential construction activity was unchanged, and materials and labor availability challenges
continued to push back project completion times. Demand for new industrial space, particularly for warehousing, remained robust. In southeast Michigan, a number
of new electric vehicle investments contributed to deep
construction project backlogs. Commercial real estate
activity was unchanged. One contact indicated that
higher interest rates had negatively impacted sales of
existing buildings. However, demand for quality commercial space stayed solid.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing production decreased slightly in late May
and June. Output continued to be held back by difficulties with supply chains and labor availability. Auto production was flat, as shortages of microchips and other
materials persisted. Heavy truck demand and prices fell
slightly, though both remained high amid very low vehi-
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
chicagofed.org/cfsec
G-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis
The Beige Book ■ July 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic conditions have improved at a modest pace since our previous report. Ongoing price increases have contributed to a mixed outlook, though demand remained stable. Labor shortages continue to place upward pressure on wages, though there are indications that these pressures have eased slightly for some firms in recent weeks. Prices for
energy and intermediate goods rose, but these increases were passed through to consumers at a lower rate than in
previous months. Retailers and restaurants saw increased consumer sensitivity to price increases. Homebuying activity
slowed across most of the District due to rising interest rates, and rents rose. Supply chain bottlenecks remained a key
issue across industries, with shortages and delays affecting availability of key inputs.
reported increased prices charged to consumers, but at
lower rates than input cost increases. A contact in the
retail industry reported large increases in shipping and
storage prices. A catfish farming industry contact cited
rising grain and fuel costs as the main factors for increasing prices. A contact in the childcare industry reported higher costs for sanitization materials and increased fees charged to clients.
Labor Markets
Employment has increased modestly since our previous
report. Contacts across the District reported that workers
remained scarce. One staffing firm, which typically filled
30 or more jobs per day pre-pandemic, reported struggling to fill 2-3 per day now. Firms continued to expand
outreach and bonuses to fill their positions, with mixed
success. One transportation contact estimated they were
now spending 3-4 times more than in recent years to
attract new drivers, and many contacts reported having
to settle for less-dependable workers. Despite this, contacts in several industries reported recent signs of the
labor market easing.
Consumer Spending
District general retailers, auto dealers, and hospitality
contacts reported generally higher business activity and
a mixed outlook. May real sales tax collections increased
in Kentucky, Missouri, and West Tennessee relative to
April and decreased in Arkansas. One retailer in Little
Rock noted that there has been no slowdown in business activity, but while the supply chain has started to
improve it is nowhere close to normal. A St. Louis auto
dealer reported that while vehicle inventory is improving,
they expect higher gas prices and waning consumer
confidence to impact business activity. Restaurants in
Louisville noted that when they increased prices to help
with rising costs, they saw a decrease in customers and
had to lower prices to keep business activity up. Hospitality contacts reported generally higher business activity
compared with May, but a mixed outlook for the upcoming months due to high gas prices and inflation.
Wages across the District have grown strongly since our
previous report, especially for hard-to-fill positions. One
contact reported rural nurse wages had increased 3040%, and one public school district doubled its summer
school teacher pay to $50 per hour. Some short-staffed
service firms reported offering overtime to workers but
receiving few to no takers.
Prices
While most prices have increased moderately since our
previous report, prices for raw materials, such as steel,
have declined. Most contacts cited rising energy costs,
especially fuel prices, as their primary input cost increase. Contacts in the services and retail industries
H-1
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Manufacturing
slightly but remain below June 2021 levels. Memphis
contacts reported that higher 30-year mortgage rates
have not decreased demand for real estate loans, but
rather have decreased the price of a home the customers can afford. Total deposits have decreased slightly,
consistent with a Memphis contact’s account of the lack
of pressure to raise deposit rates. At least one bank in
Memphis has started offering “special” rates ranging
from 1.25% to 1.75%, and this contact expects this trend
to ripple across banks following the recent interest rate
increase.
Manufacturing activity has increased slightly since our
previous report. Firms saw slight upticks in new orders
and production but reported difficulty ramping up output
to match demand due to continued supply chain issues.
These bottlenecks stem from lockdowns in China and
persisting scarcity in intermediate inputs. This trend of
intermediate input shortages has been observed across
various industries, including cement in concrete, cotton
in textiles, and wet strength resin in packaging. One
major manufacturer in Northwest Mississippi noted that
supply chain issues are as bad now as they were at the
outset of the pandemic, saying “the wheels have fallen
off.”
Agriculture and Natural Resources
District agriculture conditions declined moderately relative to the previous reporting period and the previous
year. In June, the percentages of corn, cotton, rice, and
soybeans rated fair or better decreased slightly to moderately across the District. Most crop conditions declined
moderately over this period relative to last year, except
for rice, which increased modestly.
Nonfinancial Services
Activity in the nonfinancial services sector has increased
since our previous report. However, rising input costs
and labor shortages have hampered firms’ ability to meet
rising demand. Transport firms in particular have struggled in this regard. While Tennessee and Northwestern
Arkansas saw increases in both freight and passenger
traffic in May, passenger spending continues to lag
relative to quarterly expectations. A regional airport in
Kentucky has struggled to attract another air service
after an airline discontinued service to the area due to
cost increases.
Natural resource extraction conditions declined modestly
from April to May, with seasonally adjusted coal production decreasing over 4%. May production was essentially
unchanged compared with a year ago, improving by less
than a quarter of a percent. ■
Real Estate and Construction
The residential real estate market has slowed slightly
since our previous report due to rising mortgage rates.
Total homes sold and pending sales have fallen since
our previous report. Inventory has continued to remain
scarce, and house prices are at elevated levels relative
to income, especially for first-time homebuyers. Multiple
contacts reported fewer bids per listing since our previous report, a signal that demand is beginning to cool.
Most contacts are expecting real estate demand to slow
further in the coming months.
The rental market continues to be extremely competitive.
Rents in all District MSAs saw strong growth in recent
months. Many discouraged would-be home buyers seem
to be turning to rentals to avoid high mortgage rates and
home prices. One contact reported some rental markets
seeing prospective renters coming in above asking rents.
Banking and Finance
Overall activity in the banking sector has increased
moderately since our previous report. Total loans have
grown, with consumer loans seeing the largest increase.
However, banking contacts in Memphis forecast loan
growth to slow down due to recent interest rate increases. Commercial and industrial loans have increased
H-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Minneapolis
The Beige Book ■ July 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Ninth District grew modestly since mid-May. Employment grew slightly, as labor demand appeared to weaken but remained at a high level. Wage and price pressures remained strong as employers worked to
attract talent and continued to pass on increased input costs. Professional services, manufacturing, and energy activity
increased since the last report. Consumer spending fell slightly as households adjusted their budgets in response to
increased inflation and fuel costs. Commercial construction was flat and residential construction was mixed, while commercial and residential real estate activity decreased. Agricultural conditions remained strong. Reports from minorityand women-owned business enterprises were slightly positive.
Labor Markets
to absorb larger-than-average raises as a result.
Employment grew slightly since the last report. Overall,
firms added more workers, but some signs of weakness
appeared. Job postings, for example, flattened or fell
across District states in recent weeks, but remained at
high levels. Anecdotal reports of layoffs rose, as did
initial unemployment claims. An annual survey of
professional services firms found that their employment
levels have been flat, in part due to persistent difficulties
attracting labor, a continued point of emphasis from
numerous sources. Recent statewide data on workers’
compensation policy renewals suggested that Minnesota
firms were slightly pessimistic about future staffing
levels. A monthly pulse survey of District employers also
found modestly softer hiring expectations in the coming
month compared with the previous month.
Prices
Price pressures remained strong since the previous
report. Three-quarters of respondents to a monthly
District business survey reported that their non-labor
input prices increased in May from a month earlier. More
than half said they increased their selling prices over the
previous month; 51 percent expected to increase prices
in June. Manufacturing contacts reported significant
ongoing wholesale price pressures. Retail fuel prices in
District states increased briskly since the last report.
Prices received by farmers increased in May from a year
earlier for corn, soybeans, wheat, canola, dry beans,
potatoes, hay, cattle, turkeys, eggs, and milk, while
prices for hogs decreased. By contrast, prices for certain
types of lumber fell in May from the previous month.
Wage pressures remained strong. Among professional
services firms, 36 percent said wages grew by 6 percent
or more over the last 12 months; however, respondents
expected more moderate growth on balance over the
coming year. A Minnesota financial services firm recently
gave employees $5,000 “inflation bonuses” to help offset
rising consumer prices. A staffing contact noted that
average wages for administrative staff have risen by 20
percent, year-over-year; wages for unskilled
manufacturing and other industrial work “are getting
much closer to skilled [wages].” A North Dakota contact
said firms were doing more with fewer workers, and able
Worker Experience
Job seekers were mainly looking for full-time
employment, upward mobility, and better pay, according
to South Dakota respondents to a recent worker
experience survey. Childcare costs and availability and
the need for more skills or credentials topped the list of
barriers job seekers faced in pursuing their goals. Rising
fuel, energy, and grocery prices continued to put
downward pressure on workers’ budgets. More than 70
percent of survey respondents reported having reduced
their consumption of groceries, and 40 percent said they
I-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
activity, except for industrial real estate, which remained
strong. To compensate for higher financing costs,
leveraged buyers were pulling back from deals or
reducing offers. Office occupancy remained weak as
return-to-office momentum has faltered due to hybrid
work schedules and continued COVID-19 infections.
Retail occupancy rates have increased in some markets,
thanks in part to comparatively low levels of new
construction. Residential real estate activity was
moderately lower. New listings in June flattened and
pending sales fell, largely attributed to higher mortgage
rates. Price discounts were reportedly rising but have not
yet impacted median prices meaningfully.
were cutting back on their fuel consumption. A moderate
-income social service professional shared that she was
making more “lower-end meals,” limiting entertainment
and social activities, purchasing more secondhand
items, and forgoing house repairs to adjust her budget.
Many others noted similar adjustments.
Consumer Spending
Consumer spending fell slightly since the last report, with
sources noting several shifts. Contacts at two regional
malls noted slower foot traffic in June, which they
attributed to the effects of high gas prices and overall
inflation. Multiple contacts reported that consumer
demand was increasing for services while ebbing for
durable goods. Spending was reportedly still healthy
among higher-income households, while lower-income
households faced choosing among competing needs. A
grocer noted increased purchases of cheaper foodstuffs
to offset higher costs overall. Tourism contacts reported
strong activity overall in the District. However, a flood in
the Yellowstone region of southern Montana was
expected to have a major, negative impact on the region
for the remainder of the summer season.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity increased moderately since the
last report. A regional manufacturing index indicated
increased activity in Minnesota and South Dakota in
June relative to the previous month, while activity in
North Dakota decreased. Most manufacturing contacts
reported recent orders were increased or unchanged
since the last reporting period; however, a growing
number reported slowing sales or were expecting a
slowdown in orders in the coming month.
Professional Services
Agriculture, Energy, and Natural Resources
Professional services sector activity increased
moderately. Respondents to the annual services survey
reported increased revenues over the previous year,
while profits, productivity, and employment were steady.
Firms’ expectations were mildly positive for the coming
12 months. A media company executive noted he had to
increase prices in response to higher input costs but
expected conditions to stay “steadily well.”
District agricultural conditions remained strong since the
previous report. Most of the region’s corn and soybean
crops were rated in good or excellent condition and
progressing on schedule. However, nearly half of the
Montana winter wheat crop was in poor or very poor
condition, as drought conditions persisted in the Golden
Triangle region. District oil and gas drilling activity
increased slightly since the last report.
Construction and Real Estate
Minority- and Women-Owned Business Enterprises
Commercial construction was flat since the last report.
Contacts said overall demand was still healthy, but
persistently high material costs, supply chain difficulties,
and rising borrowing costs were having an increasingly
negative impact. New projects and total active projects
over the most recent six-week period (ending mid-June)
were lower, year-over-year. Some regions have seen
strong activity, including Billings, Mont., and Mankato,
Minn.; Sioux Falls, S.D., has seen record-breaking
activity. A contact there said that “interest rate hikes
have not seemed to dampen anyone’s urge to build yet.”
Residential construction was mixed; single-family
permitting was flat or lower in much of the District while
multifamily permitting remained solid across the District,
and particularly in Minneapolis-St. Paul.
Reports from minority- and women-owned business
enterprises (MWBEs) in the District were slightly positive.
The majority of MWBE respondents to a survey said
their sales and profits remained steady or grew in May
compared to the previous month. Forty percent of
respondents said their ability to hire had improved but
challenges remained for many. To attract and retain
workers, most reported having increased wages and
provided more flexible schedules and working
conditions. Most MWBE respondents expected sales to
remain flat or improve in the next month but lowered
their profit expectations. ■
Commercial real estate was modestly lower since the
last report. Real estate contacts reported slower deal
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
minneapolisfed.org/region-and-community
I-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Kansas City
The Beige Book ■ July 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
Growth in the Tenth District slowed to a modest pace, with mixed performance across segments of the regional economy.
Consumer spending declined slightly, with the most significant reduction reported for larger ticket items. After several
months of historically high growth in the manufacturing sector, overall growth slowed to a modest pace. Contacts pointed
to shipping delays, and difficulties procuring or storing materials, as barriers to growth. New demand for residential construction declined amid rising interest rates, though contacts reported that backlogs in orders will support construction
employment over the medium term. Energy activity expanded at a solid pace with drilling activity and production rising in
several District states. Job growth picked up recently as several contacts pointed to improvement in the number of applicants for open positions. Several businesses across sectors indicated they began to offer pre-paid gas cards or direct
payments to offset rising gas prices for workers. Prices continued to rise broadly. Community and regional banks indicated that they continued to hold ample deposits, but started to experience some initial pressures on liquidity as interest
rates rose.
Labor Markets
Prices
Job growth expanded at a robust pace, with broad-based
hiring across sectors. Several contacts noted that both
the number and quality of applicants for open positions
picked up in recent weeks. Those that reported an increase in the number of applicants highlighted improvements for jobs spanning entry-level to management
positions. Some contacts suggested the pickup in applications may be tied, in part, to financial strains arising
from price pressures. Organizations that primarily serve
low- and moderate-income households indicated that
conditions for finding work, quality of available jobs and
workers’ access to technology improved. Overall, labor
demand remains high and the number of job openings
across the Tenth District grew modestly. Contacts across
sectors reported expectations for modest job growth over
the next six months.
Prices grew at a robust pace. Most contacts reported
that input price growth continues to outpace selling prices. Compared to the previous six months, manufacturing
contacts indicated a greater ability to pass through costs
to customers. On the contrary, businesses in the services sector mostly reported no change in their ability to
pass along costs over the same time period. Contacts
pointed to shifts in customer spending patterns amid
higher prices as a factor limiting pass-through of costs in
service sectors.
Consumer Spending
Overall consumer spending declined slightly in recent
weeks, with ongoing strength in seasonal leisure and
travel spending being offset by moderate declines in
spending on larger ticket items. Car sales were down
and contacts also pointed to declines in household purchases of furniture. Spending on certain home improvement goods was reportedly below contacts’ expectations
for this time of year. Restaurant owners continued to
point to shifts in patronage across establishments with
different price points. If dining out, consumers were less
likely to choose more expensive locations in favor of
lower cost options.
Wages continued to rise at a robust pace, but some
contacts indicated expectations that wage growth may
stabilize somewhat in coming months. Several contacts
reported that they began to offer temporary compensation to workers to offset rising gas prices. Some offered
pre-paid gas cards as performance or retention incentives, while others made direct payments to workers tied
to driving expenses.
J-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity
deterioration over the next six months, as inflation and
rising rates adversely impact borrower cash flow. Banks
maintained excess liquidity, but deposit growth moderated in June, in part due to customers seeking higher
yields. Contacts sought to defend their deposit shares
and temper potential run-off. Increases in unrealized
losses within securities portfolios following recent rate
increases also placed pressure on liquidity for banks with
material holdings of securities designated as Available
For Sale.
Contacts at manufacturing businesses across the District
continued to report slowing growth from recent historic
highs, with total production expanding at a slight pace.
Service business contacts also reported softening
growth. Across all sectors, most contacts reported lower
expectations for growth over the next six months as
compared to previous months. In line with softening
expectations, new orders for manufactured goods declined slightly.
Energy
The overwhelming majority of District contacts indicated
that supply chain disruptions remain a barrier to growth.
The lack of available materials and delays in shipping
are having the largest effects on businesses. Difficulties
in warehousing or storing inventory were also noted as a
significant concern. Generally, businesses did not cite
rising shipping costs among the most significant logistical challenges. Still, some importers noted that recent
declines in freight rates do not fully reflect their shipping
expenses over the summer because the higher freight
rates set into contracts earlier this year are the most
relevant for businesses over the medium term.
Tenth District energy activity increased at a solid pace in
June. The number of active natural gas and oil rigs rose
across Colorado, Oklahoma, and Wyoming, as revenues
grew at a solid rate. Difficulties sourcing key inputs,
equipment and workers inhibited further production
growth. Supply-chain disruptions for bespoke components were also a significant challenge for bringing new
renewable energy generation and distribution online.
Most firms across traditional and renewable energy
segments expected resolution of supply-chain issues to
take more than six months. Reported expectations for
drilling and business activity over the next six months
increased. Contacts in the renewable energy sector
indicated that higher interest rates posed some challenges for future additions to generation capacity, given the
long-term nature of generation and transmission infrastructure.
Real Estate and Construction
Growth in residential construction activity was mixed
across segments, with more forward-looking indicators of
activity declining moderately. Demand for multifamily
housing construction remained elevated. However, financing conditions for new projects tightened recently,
leading to fewer projects being initiated in recent weeks.
Still, backlogs for multifamily housing development projects remain large by historical standards.
Agriculture
Agricultural economic conditions in the Tenth District
remained strong through June. Although the price of
some key commodities declined slightly from the previous month, both crop and livestock prices remained at
multi-year highs. Agricultural prices continued to support
revenue prospects, but District contacts continued to
voice a heightened concern about significant increases
in production costs for both crop and livestock producers. Drought also remained a primary concern. The
condition of corn and soybeans was only slightly weaker
than a year ago in most states. The condition of wheat in
nearly all District states was exceptionally poor and
could hinder revenues for many producers. ■
Single family construction declined slightly. The large
number of housing projects previously under construction kept the level of activity high. However, the number
of buyers for newly built homes fell rapidly across the
Tenth District. Contacts noted that the slowing demand
for new home construction will likely have lagging effects
on employment and materials prices in the sector. For
example, demand for crews doing framing for homes,
which occurs early in construction, softened a bit while
demand for skilled trades associated with the finishing of
homes remains healthy. Other contacts noted that materials costs have not softened yet, but expectations are
that prices of building materials are likely to come down
in coming months.
Community and Regional Banking
Loan demand weakened modestly in the past month,
particularly in the commercial real estate and residential
mortgage segments, due to rising interest rates. While
credit quality was unchanged, contacts expected credit
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.KansasCityFed.org/research/regional-research
J-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Dallas
The Beige Book ■ July 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
Growth in the Eleventh District economy slowed to a modest pace, with part of the deceleration in demand attributed to
surging prices, rising interest rates, and higher uncertainty. Manufacturing and service sector activity slowed, and retail
spending and homes sales weakened further. Solid apartment and industrial leasing continued, but loan growth eased.
The energy sector saw further expansion, while drought dampened agricultural conditions. Employment expanded
broadly, and wage growth remained highly elevated due to a tight labor market. Supply-chain bottlenecks and higher
energy prices continued to drive up costs, and prices rose at a rapid clip, though pass through was becoming more
difficult for firms, eroding margins. Outlooks were mostly negative, and uncertainty surged, with contacts voicing concern about slowing future demand and increased risk of a recession stemming from high prices, supply-side constraints,
weakening consumer sentiment, and rising interest rates.
Labor Markets
Prices
Employment continued to expand broadly, except in
retail where it was little changed. Staffing challenges
remained widespread, with many firms reporting that
they were a drag on revenue growth. However, shortages appeared to be most acute for truck drivers, pilots,
health care staff, and oil field workers. Staffing firms
continued to report that filling lower-skilled positions was
harder than higher-skilled jobs. A restaurateur noted
operating at 85 percent capacity because of staffing
issues, despite increasing pay and benefits. Some contacts said labor shortages had increased workload for
existing staff, resulting in retention issues.
Overall, input and selling price growth remained significantly elevated during the reporting period. In the energy
sector, cost pressures accelerated to new heights. Construction contacts reported that the cost of materials
remained steady but high, except for lumber prices
which dipped slightly. Most manufacturers and service
firms noted acute price pressures due to ongoing supplychain issues, labor shortages, and high fuel prices. While
price growth remained high, cost pass through was more
difficult, particularly for small firms and companies in the
service sector.
Exceptionally strong price growth was expected by Texas businesses in the near term. According to the earliermentioned survey, respondents anticipate input prices to
climb 10 percent in 2022, on average, and selling prices
to increase 7 percent. These figures are markedly higher
than pre-pandemic rates, and businesses expect these
elevated price pressures to persist next year as well.
Wage growth remained robust amid a tight labor market.
Multiple firms reported offering higher pay or bonuses to
retain and/or hire employees. A contact in the oilfield
services firms cited intense wage pressures, with wages
up 10 percent in the industry so far in 2022, after doubledigit increases last year, and added that rig workers with
no experience and working half the year were being paid
about $85,000. A transportation equipment manufacturer
cited continued difficulty hiring despite a 40 percent
increase in starting pay. According to a June Dallas Fed
survey of more than 300 Texas business executives,
wages on average are expected to rise at an aboveaverage pace both this year and in 2023.
Manufacturing
Growth in the Texas manufacturing sector slowed sharply, following solid gains in the previous reporting period.
Output growth was flat, and new orders fell, with the
deceleration spanning both durable and nondurable
goods. The slowing was most pronounced in construction materials, fabricated metals, computer, and printingrelated manufacturing. Manufacturers attributed slowing
K-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
sales to rising prices and uncertainty regarding future
demand. Gulf Coast refinery utilization rates edged up,
and chemical output increased, buoyed by continued
strong domestic and export demand. Manufacturing
outlooks were negative.
and rent growth staying elevated. Commercial real estate markets were mixed. Office leasing continued to
improve, though net absorption was negative in some
markets. Activity in the industrial sector remained robust.
On the investment side, transaction volumes have softened given higher interest rates and increased uncertainty in the economic outlook.
Retail Sales
Retailers reported sustained weakness in overall sales,
with tight inventories and ongoing supply chain challenges continuing to hamper growth, though there were
some reports of higher prices and rising interest rates
damping demand as well. Auto dealers cited continued
declines in sales stemming from low inventories. Overall
outlooks were pessimistic and highly uncertain due to
supply challenges and expectations of weaker demand
ahead.
Financial Services
Loan volume growth moderated over the past six weeks
amid broad increases in loan pricing. Growth was strongest in commercial real estate followed by commercial
and industrial lending, though a deceleration occurred in
both categories. Residential real estate loan volumes
were flat for a second consecutive reporting period after
two years of solid growth. Nonperforming loans continued to decrease overall, though an uptick was seen in
consumer and auto loans. Credit standards and terms
tightened notably. Looking six months ahead, contacts
expect that general business activity and loan demand
will decrease, and nonperforming loans will increase.
Nonfinancial Services
Activity in the service sector softened during the reporting period. Revenue growth was mixed, with continued
solid increases seen in transportation and warehousing
but flat to weaker activity in information and accommodation and food services. Staffing firms continued to report
robust and broad-based activity, though a few contacts
cited some slowing in demand, particularly for construction workers. Passenger air travel demand remained
solid, with leisure travel continuing to dominate bookings.
Airline contacts were optimistic that second-quarter
revenues will surpass comparable 2019 levels. Air cargo
volumes softened largely due to a dip in international
shipments as domestic volumes remained strong. Small
parcel shipments edged up, and container traffic at a
large Texas seaport was up strongly year to date relative
to 2021. Service-sector outlooks were negative due to
higher uncertainty in the face of rising prices and interest
rates, weakening consumer sentiment, and growing
expectations of a recession in the near term.
Energy
Oilfield activity expanded in the district. The rig count
rose, and oil and natural gas production increased. Labor and supply chain constraints continued to limit the
pace of drilling and well completion activity. Lead times
for critical parts and components, such as engines and
transmissions, were over a year, and a severe shortage
of steel tubular goods was reported. Industry sentiment
was largely optimistic, though uncertainty rose, and
expectations were for slow growth ahead due to very
limited spare capacity—a result of supply-chain and
labor challenges.
Agriculture
Much of the district remained in severe drought, causing
agricultural conditions to deteriorate further. The wheat
harvest was wrapping up and with much lower harvestable acres and yields, production is expected to be substantially below average. Agricultural producers continued to be concerned with production cost increases and
the availability of inputs. With prices and costs at high
levels, producers may still be able to generate a profit,
but current drought conditions create a higher-risk situation than normal. Ranchers continued to reduce herd
sizes amid poor grazing conditions and limited hay supplies. Contacts noted that the strengthening dollar combined with higher transportation costs and logistics issues could negatively impact agricultural exports moving
forward. ■
Construction and Real Estate
Conditions in the housing market eroded more quickly
than anticipated during the reporting period. Sales were
off notably from earlier in the year and both online and
foot traffic slowed markedly. Cancellations rose in part
due to loan qualification issues. Buyers were hesitant to
move forward and were looking for better deals, and
builders noted offering incentives again to drive sales.
Home prices were largely flat. One contact said that
lenders were raising capital requirements on new acquisition and development loans. Contacts said several new
land deals were on pause due to rising uncertainty in the
market. Outlooks were negative, and sales and starts
expectations were being revised downward.
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.dallasfed.org/research/texas
The multifamily market remained tight, with occupancy
K-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
San Francisco
The Beige Book ■ July 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Twelfth District expanded modestly during the mid-May through June reporting period. Overall
labor market conditions remained tight, accompanied by wage increases that lagged the pace of price inflation. Inflation
remained elevated, driven chiefly by food and energy price increases. Retail sales were strong but moderated further,
while conditions in the consumer and business services sectors deteriorated slightly. Conditions in the manufacturing
and agriculture and resource-related sectors were mixed. Residential real estate activity eased, while activity in commercial real estate decelerated modestly. Lending activity was unchanged on balance. In general, District contacts
communicated a somewhat worsening outlook for the year.
Labor Markets
Prices
Labor markets remained tight across all sectors during
the reporting period. Employers reported difficulty attracting skilled workers in health care, technology, engineering, and finance as well as the skilled trades. Contacts in
leisure and hospitality continued to operate below desired staff levels despite some reported increase in job
applications. In addition, contacts in the air travel industry said that although employment remained below prepandemic levels, airlines began adjusting their summer
schedules to better reflect crew availability. Some contacts reported improved employee retention in recent
weeks, but turnover rates remained generally elevated.
A few contacts mentioned that the recent hiring freezes
at large technology firms could make it easier for other
businesses to attract experienced professionals in the
field. Several contacts also noted a pickup in unionization efforts in the retail and health-care sectors.
Prices continued to grow during the reporting period,
particularly for energy products. Price increases were
reported across multiple industries, including manufacturing, construction, agriculture, health care, and technology services. Fuel surcharges were widespread, particularly in freight and manufacturing, and contacts reported
little resistance to such adjustments given the current
inflationary environment. Raw materials costs remained
elevated, although there were reports of some relief in
lumber and steel prices. Contacts from the travel and
hospitality industries reported sustained increases in
airfares and hotel rates amid high demand for leisure
travel. Contacts generally expected cost pressures to
persist, and in some cases worsen, over the next few
months.
Retail Trade and Services
Retail sales growth moderated further over the reporting
period. Demand for retail goods remained strong but
rising prices led consumers to trade down and limit the
number of items purchased. Reports indicated that rising
costs for food and fuel were particularly binding for consumers when deciding what to purchase. Contacts noted
that sales growth for durable goods such as motor vehicles, electronics, appliances, and furniture moderated
noticeably. Despite some easing, supply chain issues
continued to strain inventories, and worker shortages at
stores limited business hours and sales. While one contact from Utah mentioned little to no vacancy in retail
Wages grew across all sectors but did not keep pace
with price inflation. Reports indicated that workers demanded more pay, citing higher food and energy prices.
Additionally, employees continued to put emphasis on
flexible work arrangements, expanded benefits, and
hiring incentives. Contacts in agriculture, health care,
and financial services reported the highest wage increases. Despite ongoing labor shortages, several contacts
reported not planning mid-year raises because of overall
economic uncertainty and previously granted pay adjustments.
L-1
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
space, a specialty retailer from Arizona reported widespread excess retail capacity in the region.
west warned declining shipping rates could indicate
decreasing food sales prospects, while a contact in the
seafood sector reported only minor improvement in
shipping conditions.
Conditions in the consumer and business services sectors deteriorated slightly on net. Contacts reported slowing sales with rising costs for materials, fuel, transportation, wages, and other supplier services. Contacts noted
that high inflation led both consumers and businesses to
reconsider spending on discretionary services, while
labor shortages made it difficult to properly train new
hires. Conversely, demand for domestic and international travel, as well as hospitality services, continued to
grow strongly, partly due to consumers’ pent-up demand
for vacationing. Demand for health-care and wellness
services remained at or near capacity in some regions.
Real Estate and Construction
Residential real estate activity eased over the reporting
period. Supply chain disruptions and rising labor and
material costs continued to put upward pressure on
housing prices. Sharp increases in mortgage rates,
combined with high home prices, cooled down demand
for existing and new single-family homes. Many contacts
highlighted a decline in the number of offers sellers
received. Inventories remained strained by historical
standards despite an increase in the number of houses
available for sale in some regions. Homebuilder confidence declined further, and permit issuance weakened
in most of the District. One developer in Alaska reported
a considerable decline in speculative construction of
housing units and a low supply of seasonal housing.
Reports mentioned increasing rents and declining availability of multi-family housing units.
Manufacturing
Conditions in the manufacturing sector varied by industry. Demand for capital equipment strengthened, as firms
in the food, beverage, chemical, personal care, and
pharmaceutical industries sought to increase productivity. However, new orders and production of wood products, electrical equipment, and fabricated metals declined over the reporting period. Manufacturers’ backlogs
remained elevated. Supply chain disruptions continued
to negatively impact the availability and cost of raw materials and extend delivery times. A few contacts reported accumulating vast inventories of hard-to-obtain materials. Many contacts expressed concern that COVID-19
lockdowns in China have remained a source of supply
chain uncertainty.
Activity in the commercial real estate market was balanced overall. Demand for retail space weakened
throughout most of the District, while demand for industrial and warehouse space remained robust. Contacts
noted that commercial real estate permits and construction slowed down somewhat, and one contact in the
Pacific Northwest said that ongoing labor and material
shortages delayed construction projects. In California,
commercial real estate conditions were reportedly steadier.
Agriculture and Resource-Related Industries
Conditions in the agriculture and resource-related sectors were mixed. Drought conditions in many areas
adversely impacted the growing season, with some
producers letting portions of their farms go fallow in order
to prioritize water usage. Growers in the Pacific Northwest instead reported increased precipitation, with one
producer expressing concern that the colder weather
would reduce crop yield. Farmers throughout the District
reported increased international demand for both fresh
and processed foods but noted that a strengthening
dollar dampened sales somewhat. Input costs, such as
those for fertilizer, machinery, fuel, and feed, increased
further over the reporting period, partially due to the
continuation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Supply
chain disruptions persisted, but many contacts reported
an easing of port backlogs and shipping rates despite
increased fuel costs. One producer in the Pacific North-
Financial Institutions
Lending activity was unchanged on balance. The number of corporate loans and consumer credit cards issued
increased, while demand for new mortgages, refinancing, and auto loans declined in most areas. Demand for
industrial lending remained steady. Many contacts mentioned a notable increase in competition for loans and
continued ample liquidity. Credit quality remained high,
but contacts expected credit health to deteriorate somewhat on account of increasing interest rates and moderating deposits. Financiers in the private equity and venture capital space noted that the cost of leveraging has
increased notably, dampening the volume of new deals
in recent weeks. Demand for insurance products generally declined, with a notable exception being pet insurance. ■
*Note: On July 19, 2022, a typo was corrected to change the date from “July 13, 2022” to “July 6,
2022” in the following sentence: “This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of
Atlanta based on information collected on or before July 13, 2022."
L-2
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (2022, July 26). Beige Book. Beige Book, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/beige_book_20220727
@misc{wtfs_beige_book_20220727,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Beige Book},
year = {2022},
month = {Jul},
howpublished = {Beige Book, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/beige_book_20220727},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}