Beige Book
For use at 2:00 PM EDT
Wednesday
September 7, 2022
The Beige Book
Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions
By Federal Reserve District
August 2022
Federal Reserve Districts
Minneapolis
Boston
Chicago
Cleveland
Philadelphia
San Francisco
Kansas City
New York
Richmond
St. Louis
Atlanta
Dallas
Alaska and Hawaii
are part of the
San Francisco District.
The System serves commonwealths and territories as follows: the New York Bank serves the
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands; the San Francisco Bank serves
American Samoa, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.
This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco based on information collected on or before
August 29, 2022. This document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve System
and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.
Federal Reserve Banks collect information for the Beige Book from a variety of business and nonbusiness sources.
Beginning September 7, 2022, six Banks started including individual community sections with information from
nonbusiness sources, while the remaining Banks will continue to include such information within the existing structure of their District reports.
National Summary
Boston
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The Beige Book is a Federal Reserve System publication about current
economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. It characterizes regional economic conditions and prospects based on a variety
of mostly qualitative information, gathered directly from each District’s
sources. Reports are published eight times per year.
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What is the purpose of the Beige Book?
First District
New York
Second District
Philadelphia
C-1
Third District
Cleveland
D-1
Fourth District
Richmond
E-1
Fifth District
Atlanta
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Sixth District
Chicago
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Seventh District
St. Louis
H-1
Eighth District
Minneapolis
I-1
Ninth District
Kansas City
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Tenth District
Dallas
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Eleventh District
San Francisco
Twelfth District
What is the Beige Book?
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The Beige Book is intended to characterize the change in economic
conditions since the last report. Outreach for the Beige Book is one of
many ways the Federal Reserve System engages with businesses and
other organizations about economic developments in their communities. Because this information is collected from a wide range of contacts through a variety of formal and informal methods, the Beige Book
can complement other forms of regional information gathering. The
Beige Book is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve
officials.
How is the information collected?
Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers information on current economic
conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors, plus interviews and online questionnaires completed by businesses, community organizations, economists, market experts, and other
sources. Contacts are not selected at random; rather, Banks strive to
curate a diverse set of sources that can provide accurate and objective
information about a broad range of economic activities. The Beige
Book serves as a regular summary of this information for the public.
How is the information used?
The information from contacts supplements the data and analysis used
by Federal Reserve economists and staff to assess economic conditions in the Federal Reserve Districts. The qualitative nature of the
Beige Book creates an opportunity to characterize dynamics and identify emerging trends in the economy that may not be readily apparent in
the available economic data. This information enables comparison of
economic conditions in different parts of the country, which can be
helpful for assessing the outlook for the national economy.
The Beige Book does not have the type of information I’m looking
for. What other information is available?
The Federal Reserve System conducts a wide array of recurring surveys of businesses, households, and community organizations. A list of
statistical releases compiled by the Federal Reserve Board is available
here, links to each of the Federal Reserve Banks are available here,
and a summary of the System’s community outreach is available here.
In addition, Fed Listens events have been held around the country to
hear about how monetary policy affects peoples’ daily lives and livelihoods. The System also relies on a variety of advisory councils—
whose members are drawn from a wide array of businesses, non-profit
organizations, and community groups—to hear diverse perspectives on
the economy in carrying out its responsibilities.
National Summary
The Beige Book ■ August 2022
Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity was unchanged, on balance, since early July, with five Districts reporting slight to modest growth in
activity and five others reporting slight to modest softening. Most Districts reported steady consumer spending as households continued to trade down and to shift spending away from discretionary goods and toward food and other essential
items. Auto sales remained muted across most Districts, reflecting limited inventories and elevated prices. Hospitality and
tourism contacts highlighted overall solid leisure travel activity with some reporting an uptick in business and group travel.
Manufacturing activity grew in several Districts, although there were some reports of declining output as supply chain
disruptions and labor shortages continued to hamper production. Despite some reports of strong leasing activity, residential real estate conditions weakened noticeably as home sales fell in all twelve Districts and residential construction remained constrained by input shortages. Commercial real estate activity softened, particularly demand for office space.
Loan demand was mixed; while financial institutions reported generally strong demand for credit cards and commercial
and industrial loans, residential loan demand was weak amid elevated mortgage interest rates. Nonfinancial services
firms experienced stable to slightly higher demand. Demand for transportation services was mixed and reports on agriculture conditions across reporting Districts varied. While demand for energy products was robust, production remained
constrained by supply chain bottlenecks for critical components. The outlook for future economic growth remained generally weak, with contacts noting expectations for further softening of demand over the next six to twelve months.
Labor Markets
Employment rose at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts. Overall labor market conditions remained tight, although nearly all Districts highlighted some improvement in labor availability, particularly among manufacturing, construction, and financial services contacts. Moreover, employers noted improved worker retention, on balance. Wages grew
across all Districts, although reports of a slower pace of increase and moderating salary expectations were widespread.
Employers in several Districts reported giving midyear and off-cycle raises to offset higher living costs, and many noted
that offering bonuses, flexible work arrangements, and comprehensive benefits were deemed necessary to attract and
retain workers. Looking ahead, employers planned to provide end-of-year pay raises to their workers, but expectations for
the pace of wage growth varied across industries and Districts.
Prices
Price levels remained highly elevated, but nine Districts reported some degree of moderation in their rate of increase.
Substantial price increases were reported across all Districts, particularly for food, rent, utilities, and hospitality services.
While manufacturing and construction input costs remained elevated, lower fuel prices and cooling overall demand alleviated cost pressures, especially freight shipping rates. Several Districts reported some tapering in prices for steel, lumber,
and copper. Most contacts expected price pressures to persist at least through the end of the year.
Highlights by Federal Reserve District
Boston
New York
Business activity expanded at a modest pace. Labor
markets remained very tight, and employment increased
modestly despite above average wage growth. Output
prices increased moderately, but contacts noticed a
stabilization or easing of input prices. Although many
contacts were optimistic, the real estate outlook worsened, and some contacts perceived an elevated risk of
recession.
Economic activity contracted modestly, with supply disruptions easing somewhat. Employment increased modestly despite ongoing worker shortages. Tourism remained strong, whereas consumer spending was flat
and manufacturing activity fell significantly. Businesses
continued to report widespread increases in selling prices, input prices, and wages, though to a slightly lesser
extent than earlier in the year.
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National Summary
Philadelphia
St. Louis
Business activity held steady compared with the prior
Beige Book period. Manufacturing, among other sectors,
continued to decline. Employment grew slightly despite
increased talk of a recession. Firms reported wage and
price pressures subsided, but growth remained at a
moderate and strong pace, respectively. Hiring, supply
chains, and price growth remained key challenges for
most firms. Firms’ expectations for future prices fell.
Economic conditions have declined slightly since our
previous report. Slowing consumer demand and continued price increases have contributed to a weaker outlook. Residential housing activity slowed and rental
demand rose. Manufacturing and agriculture firms saw
significant input price increases.
Minneapolis
The Ninth District economy fell slightly since early July.
Employment grew moderately and wage pressures
remained strong. High prices persisted but showed signs
of easing. Energy and manufacturing saw only slight
growth. Consumer spending was flat; construction and
real estate sectors were subdued. Farm conditions were
healthy, save for drought in some areas. Reports from
minority- and women-owned businesses were mixed.
Cleveland
Business activity steadied in the District, after slowing
slightly in the prior reporting period. Moreover, contacts
appeared cautiously optimistic that demand would not
soften much further in the next few months. Firms continued to add to their payrolls even though their hiring plans
were not as aggressive as earlier in the year. Upward
cost and price pressures let up somewhat with generally
softer demand and some easing of supply disruptions.
Kansas City
The Tenth District economy expanded slightly, with
much of the growth in business revenue driven by higher
prices rather than greater volumes of activity. Worker
turnover declined moderately, and labor demand remained strong. Prices grew rapidly, including housing
rental rates. Consumer spending was mostly unchanged,
but more households began to express difficulty in meeting regular expenses, such as utility payments.
Richmond
Economic activity slowed slightly in recent weeks. Manufacturers, ports and transportation companies, retailers,
and hospitality firms reported slight to modest declines in
sales and volumes. Real estate activity was flat to down
moderately. Lending activity declined for most loan
types. Meanwhile, nonfinancial services saw moderate
growth, employment increased strongly, and price
growth remained robust.
Dallas
Economic growth in the district continued, though the
modest pace experienced over the summer has been a
downshift from stronger expansion experienced earlier in
the year. Job growth was quite robust and wage growth
remained highly elevated due to a tight labor market.
Supply chain bottlenecks have begun easing and prices
were not rising as fast. Outlooks were mixed as uncertainty remained elevated.
Atlanta
Economic activity grew slightly. Labor markets eased
some, but wage pressures continued. Many nonlabor
costs moderated. Retail sales softened. Leisure travel
activity slowed while business travel grew. Housing
demand weakened. Commercial real estate conditions
were mixed. Manufacturing activity was strong. Demand
for transportation services was mixed. Banking activity
was steady.
San Francisco
Economic activity expanded modestly over the reporting
period. Hiring activity grew at a modest pace amid tight
labor market conditions. Wages and price levels increased further, albeit at a slower pace. Retail sales
were stable while demand for services strengthened.
Conditions in the agriculture sector were mixed. Residential real estate activity eased, and lending activity
was steady.
Chicago
Economic activity decreased modestly. Employment
increased moderately, business spending was little
changed, consumer spending and construction and real
estate declined modestly, and manufacturing orders
were down moderately. Wages rose rapidly, as did most
prices, while financial conditions improved modestly.
Agriculture income expectations for 2022 were unchanged. Nonbusiness contacts reported little change in
economic activity.
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Federal Reserve Bank of
Boston
The Beige Book ■ August 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
Business activity expanded at a modest pace on balance, led by solid revenue growth among retailers and manufacturers and robust tourism activity. In contrast, commercial real estate activity was flat and home sales fell, developments
attributed in part to higher interest rates. Labor markets remained very tight, and employment increased only modestly
despite above average (but stable) wage growth. Labor scarcity held back revenue growth at staffing firms and led to
reduced hours at some Massachusetts restaurants. Firms’ output prices increased moderately on average, but several
contacts noticed a stabilization of input prices such as for wholesale food items. Also, freight costs eased owing to a
reversal of earlier fuel surcharges. Retail, hospitality, and manufacturing contacts were mostly optimistic, but the real
estate outlook worsened and several contacts in diverse businesses perceived that the risk of recession remained elevated.
mained up 7 percent on average from one year ago, as
wholesale food prices levelled off. Freight and shipping
costs subsided following a reduction in fuel surcharges
that had been added in the spring, and contacts said that
supply chain issues had either eased or at least not
intensified in recent months. Hotel room rates climbed at
a robust pace that was nonetheless more moderate than
that of earlier in the year. Despite the stabilization of cost
pressures, some contacts said that further price increases were possible moving forward, as their output prices
tended to adjust to cost increases with a lag.
Labor Markets
Employment increased modestly and wage growth held
steady at an above-average pace. Although headcounts
were flat in most cases, two manufacturers managed to
boost their staffing levels by moderate and large margins, respectively. Across sectors, most contacts said
that attracting and retaining workers remained very
challenging, even after having raised their wage offers
for new and/or existing employees. However, selected
contacts in the retail sector experienced a modest decline in attrition. The dearth of labor supply held back
revenue growth at staffing firms and caused some restaurants to reduce their hours. Contacts said that nonwage incentives, such as remote work options, flexible
schedules, and career training, remained important for
attracting and retaining employees. One manufacturer
experienced high absenteeism rates among workers
dealing with substance abuse problems. Contacts who
commented on the labor outlook expected labor shortages to persist, but not worsen, moving forward.
Retail and Tourism
Retail and restaurant contacts reported moderately
higher sales, while hotels enjoyed a summer surge that
exceeded even their optimistic expectations. An online
retailer had a modest uptick in sales and recaptured
market share lost earlier this year from supply chain
woes. A salvage store enjoyed a substantial increase in
sales, but high costs kept profits flat. A Massachusetts
restaurant industry contact said that sales increased
solidly throughout the state amid renewed tourism activity, as summer customers appeared undeterred by earlier
menu price hikes. Downtown Boston restaurants saw
relatively muted growth, a fact attributed to the still tepid
rebound in business travel. Cape Cod restaurants faced
very high demand, but labor shortages forced many to
reduce their operating hours. Hotel occupancy rates in
the Boston area climbed rapidly in recent months, ap-
Prices
Output prices increased moderately on average, but
input pricing pressures were mostly stable. All but one
manufacturer raised its output prices recently, with increases ranging from 2 percent to 12 percent. One retailer posted a moderate price increase in the second quarter in response to higher costs for labor and a steep
increase in propane costs following a contract renegotiation. Restaurant menu prices mostly stabilized but re-
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Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
proaching pre-pandemic levels despite reduced business
travel. The outlook was mostly optimistic, but concerns
about ongoing inflationary pressures and labor shortages
persisted.
Commercial Real Estate
First District commercial real estate markets were mostly
stable. Contacts reported a largely static retail leasing
market, with little change in rents or demand for space.
Rents for industrial space remained quite high, with
vacancy rates at historic lows, as scarce land and labor
constrained the addition of new supply. Demand for high
-square-footage industrial space continued to outstrip
supply, particularly in urban areas. Vacancy rates in
office buildings remained elevated throughout the region,
and lease rates fell or held steady, as working from
home remained prevalent. Contacts said that office rents
were flat but that concessions such as high renovation
budgets had become standard. Higher interest rates
deterred borrowing for new construction and acquisitions. Equity contributions on new loans increased, as
investors sought to avoid lower-yielding options. The
outlook was generally pessimistic. In the retail and industrial markets, contacts expected high borrowing and
building costs to continue to deter construction activity.
Several contacts expected office leasing activity to pick
up by the end of the year but cautioned that such activity
would result in significant tenant downsizing.
Manufacturing and Related Services
Most First District manufacturing contacts reported moderately stronger sales on balance. The semiconductor
industry continued to enjoy very strong revenue growth.
A furniture maker said that his earlier pessimism turned
out to be groundless: demand for his firm’s goods has
been exceptionally strong, with in-store traffic back at pre
-pandemic levels and online sales well above prepandemic levels. The only firm to report weaker sales, a
veterinary care supplier, explained that veterinary clinics
were cutting their hours to relieve overworked staff.
While all contacts experienced ongoing stresses in the
supply chain, some said that such issues had eased,
and one reported that logistics firms had stopped levying
surcharges. None of our contacts reported any revisions
to their capital expenditure plans. The outlook was mostly positive, with two exceptions. The veterinary supplier
expected demand to continue to soften back to prepandemic levels, and a capital equipment manufacturer
foresaw weaker demand in the third quarter owing to
overall pessimism about the economy.
Residential Real Estate
Higher interest rates cooled home-buying demand, leading to fewer closed sales in the First District’s residential
real estate markets. (Vermont reported year-over-year
changes for June 2022 and all other areas reported
changes for July 2022. Connecticut data were unavailable.) Closed sales fell sharply over-the-year in all reporting markets, in a notable weakening from the previous
report. Contacts attributed the decline in sales to rising
mortgage rates, coupled with high price inflation that
crimped buyers’ budgets. Home prices increased overthe-year in all reporting markets. For single-family
homes, the over-the-year price increase was smaller
than in the previous report, and contacts anticipated that
prices would continue to level off into the fall. In condo
markets, the price increases were slightly larger than or
on par with those from the previous report. Since the
spring, inventories were substantially lower in Rhode
Island, Maine, and Vermont, but moderately higher in
Massachusetts (including Boston proper) and New
Hampshire. Several contacts described a return to prepandemic normalcy in the market after the home-buying
“frenzy” of the past two years.■
Staffing Services
First District staffing contacts reported no significant
revenue changes in 2022Q2 from the previous quarter,
as revenue growth was reportedly held back by weakness in labor supply. Demand for labor continued to
outpace supply across a variety of industries and experience levels, and wages remained elevated throughout
the region. Contacts characterized the labor market as
extremely competitive and fast-paced, with candidates
being placed in a matter of days. One contact noted an
increase in pre-college-graduation recruitment activity for
some entry-level jobs. According to another contact, any
number of snags could become an immediate dealbreaker for a job seeker, such as the need to relocate or to
work in-person rather than remotely. In response to the
tough hiring environment, staffing firms made renewed
efforts to reach new job candidates and/or to accelerate
the hiring process, such as by boosting their advertising
activity and offering referral bonuses. Some contacts
expressed concerns about an impending economic
contraction, signaled both by macroeconomic conditions
and by recent layoffs at a large Boston-area employer,
but one was hopeful for a mild slowdown that would
normalize the labor market.
For more information about District economic conditions
visit: www.bostonfed.org/regional-economy
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Federal Reserve Bank of
New York
The Beige Book ■ August 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Second District contracted modestly in the latest reporting period, with worker shortages continuing but supply backlogs easing somewhat. Businesses did not expect much improvement in the months ahead. Selling
prices, input prices, and wages all continued to increase but to a slightly lesser extent than earlier in the year. Businesses continued to hire, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than in recent months, and there have been scattered reports of
layoffs. Still, a wide range of employers plan to add staff, on net, in the months ahead. Manufacturers reported that
activity fell significantly in recent weeks. Consumer spending has been flat, though tourism has remained strong. The
home sales market softened further, while the rental market continued to strengthen, amplifying concerns about housing
affordability. Commercial real estate markets were mixed but, on balance, a bit weaker. Construction starts declined,
and industry contacts have grown increasingly pessimistic. Conditions in the broad finance sector improved but remained weak, and regional banks reported ongoing declines in loan demand, tighter credit standards, and steady delinquencies.
Labor Markets
Prices
Employment increased modestly despite ongoing worker
shortages, though businesses reported some improvement in labor availability and there have been scattered
reports of layoffs. One upstate New York employment
agency noted that demand for workers has abated a bit
but remains solid, especially in technology-related fields.
A New York City agency reported that hiring has remained strong and workers remain hard to find. Businesses in the manufacturing, distribution, and information
sectors indicated that they continue to add staff, on net.
Firms in all major industry sectors except construction,
retail, and finance plan to add staff in the months ahead.
Most business contacts noted ongoing broad-based
escalation in input prices, though to a somewhat lesser
extent than in the prior report. Cost increases were particularly widespread in construction. Contacts across all
major sectors expect cost pressures to persist.
Businesses continued to report widespread escalation in
their selling prices, though to a slightly lesser extent than
in recent months. Increases were most pervasive in the
construction, manufacturing, distribution, and leisure &
hospitality industries. A large but declining share of
businesses said they plan further price hikes in the
months ahead.
Businesses across all major sectors except finance continued to report widespread wage increases. However,
one employment agency noted a leveling off in wages,
and another indicated that the pace of wage growth was
slowing. Businesses across all sectors plan to raise
wages further in the months ahead. Remote work arrangements among office-based businesses remain fairly
widespread and are not expected to change much in the
year ahead.
Consumer Spending
Consumer spending has been little changed in recent
weeks. Nonauto retailers reported that business has
been essentially flat, picking up a bit in July but tapering
off in the first half of August. One retail chain noted some
uncertainty about the upcoming holiday season, anticipating a modest decline from 2021 levels. Auto dealers
in upstate New York reported that sales of both new and
used vehicles have remained sluggish in the latest re-
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Federal Reserve Bank of New York
porting period—due mainly to lack of inventory but also
to affordability issues which have crimped demand.
rise briskly in July and were up roughly 20 percent from a
year earlier in Manhattan and up about 15 percent in
Brooklyn and Queens. Rental vacancy rates turned up
modestly but are still near 20-year lows. Rents have also
continued to trend up fairly strongly in upstate New York
and northern New Jersey.
Manufacturing and Distribution
Manufacturing activity has been choppy, declining significantly in recent weeks. However, businesses engaged in
wholesale trade and transportation & warehousing continued to report modest growth. Manufacturers reported
a slight decline in unfilled orders and expect both unfilled
orders and delivery times to decline noticeably in the
months ahead. Businesses in manufacturing and distribution report some improvement in supply availability,
and, looking ahead, disruptions and delays are expected
to diminish.
Commercial real estate markets have softened a bit, on
balance. Office markets were steady to slightly weaker,
with vacancy rates edging up in Manhattan, northern New
Jersey, and upstate New York but steady elsewhere.
Office rents were little changed across the District. The
industrial market has also shown scattered signs of weakening, with vacancy rates steady to modestly higher but
rents continuing to rise briskly. Retail rents were flat, while
vacancy rates rose modestly.
Services
Activity in the service sector has been flat to slightly
weaker in the latest reporting period. Education & health
providers and information firms noted a slight increase in
activity, while businesses engaged in leisure & hospitality and professional & business services saw a modest
decline. Businesses in these sectors remain mildly optimistic about the near-term outlook.
Construction activity weakened somewhat, as construction
starts slipped. Still, a fair amount of space remains under
construction, though this too has declined a bit, as a good
deal of commercial space under development has come or
is about to come to market. Industry contacts characterized the general business climate as quite negative and
worsening, and contacts are somewhat pessimistic about
the near-term outlook.
Tourism, however, has continued to show strength. In
New York City, hotel occupancy has remained at or
above 75 percent in recent weeks. Domestic tourism has
been fairly robust, and international visits have picked up
further, led by Europe, whereas visits from Asia
(especially China) have lagged substantially. Moreover,
visitors from Europe have been spending briskly, despite
the weak Euro and Sterling. Underscoring this trend,
attendance at tourist attractions, such as the Statue of
Liberty, has been solid, and the U.S. Tennis Open is
reportedly sold out. Upcoming events, such as the UN
General Assembly and Climate Week, are expected to
draw more visitors. Business travel, though still well
below pre-pandemic levels, has picked up—mainly reflecting smaller in-person-only conferences and meetings.
Banking and Finance
Contacts in the broad finance sector characterized the
general business climate as negative but improving modestly. Small to medium-sized banks reported lower loan
demand across all segments. Refinancing activity also
decreased. Credit standards tightened for business loans
and commercial mortgages but were little changed for
consumer loans and home mortgages. Loan spreads
widened and deposit rates rose. Finally, delinquency rates
were unchanged across all categories.
Community Perspectives
Community leaders reported that rising prices have had
various adverse effects on people in the District. Food
pantry managers were seeing an ongoing rise in food
prices and increased demand from clients, leading to
heightened food insecurity. However, they noted some
easing of logistical and delivery challenges. With rents
escalating rapidly, especially in New York City, concerns
about housing affordability have grown. Some nonprofits’
expansion plans, driven by new mandates and funding,
have been hampered by labor shortages caused by turnover, retirements, and wage competition from the private
sector. ■
Real Estate and Construction
The home sales market has softened over the summer,
while the rental market has continued to strengthen. In
New York City, as well as across most of the District,
homes sales tapered off, and the inventory of available
homes, though still very low, edged higher. Home prices
appear to have leveled off across most of the region and
the prevalence of bidding wars has receded noticeably.
In contrast, residential rental markets strengthened
further. Throughout New York City, rents continued to
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.newyorkfed.org/regional‐economy
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Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia
The Beige Book ■ August 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
On balance, business activity in the Third District held steady – a pause from the slight growth of the prior Beige Book
period. Broad nonfinancial services activity grew slightly, but most other sectors were flat or down. Activity in a few
sectors remained below pre-pandemic levels. Employment grew slightly as fears of a recession increased. Wages and
prices continued to grow at a moderate and strong pace, respectively. However, firms noted that wage and price pressures were, in fact, easing. Moreover, firms’ expectations for future prices fell. Most firms continued to note hiring difficulty, supply chain disruptions, and high prices as their biggest challenges; COVID-19 cases held steady in the District
at relatively low rates. On balance, expectations for continued economic growth over the next six months declined for
nonmanufacturing firms but remained positive. Among manufacturers, expectations remained negative and deteriorated
further. Expectations for all firms were well below their nonrecessionary historical averages.
Labor Markets
On a quarterly basis, firms reported a somewhat higher
expectation of the one-year-ahead change in compensation cost per worker, with a trimmed mean of 5.8 percent
in the third quarter of 2022 – up from 5.2 percent in the
second quarter.
Employment grew slightly – slower than the prior period’s modest pace. Scattered reports of layoffs, attrition,
and hiring freezes have increased since the prior period.
One staffing company reported slower job orders, noting
order activity is approaching levels consistent with prior
recessions. The share of firms reporting employment
increases edged down from the prior period. However,
the share remained near one-quarter among both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing firms despite rising
signs of a cooling labor market.
Prices
Prices appear to have continued growing at a strong
pace. Contacts reported that price increases received for
their own goods and services over the past year rebounded in the third quarter of 2022 after slowing in the
prior quarter. The trimmed mean for reported price
changes in our quarterly survey questions rose to 7.2
percent from 6.3 percent in the second quarter of 2022
for all firms. Price increases ticked up to 4.5 percent from
4.4 percent for nonmanufacturers and rose to a high of
10.4 percent from 9.6 percent among manufacturers.
Overall, most firms still describe hiring and retention as a
top concern. However, many contacts, including staffing
firms, noted a slight easing of labor supply challenges in
recent months, with more workers applying for open
positions. One contact stated that some workers have
explained that they had quit jobs because of poor management, unkept promises, or racist attitudes.
Despite the rise in year-over-year price growth, price
increases for firms’ inputs were less widespread in
recent months. Additionally, a smaller share of firms
reported price increases throughout much of the
downstream supply chain, including prices faced by
consumers.
Firms continued to note that wage growth subsided in
recent months. However, wage inflation remains widespread and appears to have maintained a moderate
pace. In our monthly surveys, the share of nonmanufacturing firms reporting higher wage and benefit costs per
employee edged down but remained above 50 percent,
as has been true for the past year. Few firms reported
lower compensation.
Looking ahead one year, the price increases that firms
anticipated receiving fell for the third consecutive quarter
– the trimmed mean for all firms was 4.3 percent in the
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Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
third quarter of 2022, down from 5.0 percent in the second quarter of 2022 and a peak of 5.9 percent in the
fourth quarter of 2021. The expected rate of growth was
3.5 percent for nonmanufacturers and 5.4 percent for
manufacturers.
anced as all but one individual loan segment grew modestly to moderately during the period. Inflation is contributing more to the growth during the current year relative
to past years.
Loan volumes declined at a moderate pace for commercial and industrial loans. Multiple contacts noted a slowdown in commercial loan demand, as potential borrowers remained concerned about rising interest rates and
economic uncertainty. Some contacts also highlighted
the amount of untouched stimulus money still on firms’
balance sheets. Credit card volumes appeared to continue growing moderately – at a quicker pace than typically
experienced this season of the year.
Manufacturing
On average, current manufacturing activity continued to
decline slightly. The index of new orders fell from an
already negative reading. Despite the decline in new
orders, the shipments index rose modestly as firms
worked through backlogs.
Manufacturing firms’ expectations remained muted. The
indexes of future activity and new orders fell further into
negative territory; however, expectations of future capital
expenditures and employment were positive and even
rebounded slightly.
Real Estate and Construction
Homebuilders reported that contract signings for new
homes continued to fall modestly. However, contacts
noted that sales traffic rebounded slightly in recent
weeks following the introduction of new incentives and
lower-priced options.
Consumer Spending
On balance, retailers (nonauto) and restaurateurs reported overall sales held steady from the prior period. Most
contacts noted no change in customer traffic, but one
contact reported smaller purchases per visit.
Existing home sales continued to fall slightly. While
prices continued to rise on a year-over-year basis, contacts noted that the percentage of houses selling for
more than the asking price declined. Housing affordability remained a challenge, and rents remained high. The
share of 211 calls that sought assistance for housing
have edged higher since the prior period, to 35 percent
of total calls – 42 percent of those were for rental assistance. Calls for help with utility bills edged down to 20
percent.
Auto dealers reported little change to the weak level of
sales observed during the prior period, as inventories
remained extremely low; sales remained significantly
below the levels in 2019. While constrained supply
makes it difficult to observe demand, one contact noted
that high prices and rising interest rates appeared to
slightly reduce demand for vehicles’ most expensive trim
options.
On balance, construction activity and leasing activity for
commercial real estate continued to hold steady. The
markets for industrial/warehouse space, multifamily
housing, and institutional projects remained strong.
Rents for industrial/warehouse space and multifamily
housing continued to rise. Contacts noted that high input
prices remain a challenge for construction, but price
growth has slowed. Multiple contacts reported that new
land purchases and long-term projects have been delayed until firms have more clarity on interest rates and
inflation. ■
Overall, tourism continued to grow slightly. The ongoing
recovery of business travel outweighed a slight pullback
in leisure travel. Despite the slight slowdown, domestic
leisure travel remained strong, particularly at shore destinations. One contact reported that the number of large
events, such as conventions and concerts, had returned
to near 2019 levels, but attendance at such events remained well below what was seen prior to the pandemic.
Nonfinancial Services
On balance, nonmanufacturing activity grew slightly – at
a slower pace than in the prior period. Overall, the share
of firms reporting increases in sales and in new orders
declined, while the share of firms that reported decreases rose in both categories.
Financial Services
The volume of bank lending (excluding credit cards)
grew modestly during the period (not seasonally adjusted) – at a slower pace than in the prior period, but comparable with the same period in 2019. Growth was bal-
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.philadelphiafed.org/regional-economy
C-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Cleveland
The Beige Book ■ August 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
After declining slightly during the prior reporting period, Fourth District business activity steadied in recent weeks. Retailers reported that higher inflation had constrained households’ ability to spend on some items, particularly among lowerincome households. In addition, higher prices and interest rates dampened demand for automobiles and homes. Manufacturing and nonresidential construction activity held up better, but growth was softer than earlier in the year. While, on
balance, contacts did not expect a meaningful increase in activity in the fall, they continued to add to their payrolls.
Supply chain disruptions remained prominent, but there were more frequent reports of relief from these disruptions.
Generally softer economic conditions and slight relief from supply disruptions appeared to alleviate some inflationary
pressures. Though still high, both the share of contacts reporting higher input costs and the share reporting higher selling prices dipped to their lowest levels in more than a year.
pressure on prices. The share of contacts reporting
increased nonlabor input costs fell to its lowest in more
than a year, though it remained high by historical standards. Several freight contacts noted that falling fuel prices helped alleviate overall cost pressures, while those in
construction and manufacturing reported lower prices for
lumber and steel. One nonresidential builder said that
"an endless chain of 10 percent increases every 30 days
has subsided.” Moreover, a manufacturer who did experience higher costs said that they were “moderate increases, not as outrageous as in previous periods.”
Looking ahead, contacts expected cost pressures to
ease somewhat further in coming months.
Labor Markets
Employment increased modestly. While most contacts
said that staffing held steady, nearly a third indicated that
they had added to their payrolls in the prior two months.
Several business contacts acknowledged that they had
curbed hiring plans from earlier in the year, but many
indicated that because of persistent worker shortages
they continued to run shorthanded and were playing
catch up with staffing. A manufacturer said his firm “will
continue to hire until we can gain a full staff, even if the
economy slows.” Based on contact reports, labor availability recently increased somewhat.
Increased availability of workers along with a modest
pullback in hiring may have contributed to a slight easing
in wage pressures. The share of contacts reporting pay
increases has been edging down since the beginning of
the year but remained elevated. In many cases, contacts
suggested that they had paused pay increases after
generous pay hikes in prior periods. While the percentage of contacts offering higher pay decreased, those
who hiked wages often did so “to blunt the effects of
inflation” on their workers. In addition, many said that
pay increases were still high by historical standards.
While still elevated, the share of contacts reporting an
increase in selling prices also dipped to its lowest in
more than a year. In some cases, firms passed lower
input costs along to customers. One manufacturer said
that "most of our contracts have pass through provisions.
As our raw material costs have decreased, so have
prices.” In other cases, slower demand growth and higher inventories led to more intense price competition. One
general merchandiser, citing public reports of higher
inventories at the retail level, said “markdowns are coming.”
Prices
Weaker demand appeared to relieve some upward
D-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Consumer Spending
earlier than planned to get ahead of anticipated interest
rate increases. On the household side, contacts noted a
continued decline in auto, mortgage, and refinancing
applications related to higher borrowing costs and low
inventories. According to bankers, commercial and consumer loan delinquency rates remained low and core
deposits flat. However, one banker noted that customers
have started drawing down their savings to meet financial obligations. Looking ahead, bankers expected inflationary pressures and higher interest rates to cause
consumers and businesses to delay major purchases, a
situation leading to weaker loan demand in the near
term.
Retailers reported weaker sales, particularly for discretionary items, as higher prices for food and other essentials depleted households’ discretionary income. One
general merchandiser said that lower-income consumers
were spreading out their back-to-school purchases rather than purchasing everything at once. First, they
bought school essentials, and will likely purchase school
apparel later. Restaurateurs and tourism contacts reported that sales remained steady over the summer and are
optimistic that customer demand will remain steady into
the next quarter. Auto dealers reported a decline in
demand for both new and used vehicles, which they
attribute to higher prices, rising interest rates, and general inflation taking up more of households’ incomes.
Nonfinancial Services
Demand for manufactured goods was mixed but generally stable. Several contacts said that their customers were
working down inventories, a situation which resulted in
fewer orders, and some noted a reduction in demand
from abroad. Still, others indicated that demand was
relatively steady, and several were cheered by plateauing or declining costs for some inputs. On balance,
manufacturers expected little change in demand in coming months.
Demand for nonfinancial services was mixed in recent
weeks. Freight activity softened further as demand from
customers in certain markets (such as residential construction) slowed. Meanwhile, demand for technology
services remained strong, including for human resources
- and payroll-related software. Digital authentication
services also continued to see strong activity because
online purchasing remained robust. Going forward, contacts anticipated freight demand would remain soft,
though professional and business services firms expected demand for their services to remain strong.
Real Estate and Construction
Community Conditions
Manufacturing
Community organizations experienced heightened demand for services in recent months. Several contacts
mentioned that the number of families seeking food
assistance increased because of higher prices. One
contact said inflation “impacts what families are able to
purchase with their SNAP benefits and their own resources, which means they are coming to our foodbanks
in larger numbers.” Adding to the challenge, declines in
donations and general constraints in the food supply
chain led food banks to ration food. Several contacts
also noted an uptick in the number of unsheltered families and longer stays in shelters. ■
Demand for residential construction and real estate
remained well below levels experienced earlier in the
year. Contacts attributed softer demand to high construction costs and rising interest rates. One homebuilder
noted that his firm’s construction starts have outpaced
sales over the past couple of months, raising the concern that his backlogs may soon diminish. Contacts
anticipated activity would remain slow and did not expect
to see any significant improvement in demand in the
coming months.
Most nonresidential construction and real estate contacts
reported that demand has remained stable despite increasing interest rates. Demand for warehousing space
in particular has remained strong as firms continue to
shift toward more ecommerce activity. While contacts
expected demand to remain stable in the near future, a
few worried that higher construction costs and rising
interest rates could lead to declines in overall demand.
Financial Services
Overall loan demand was generally unchanged as a
decline in new mortgage and auto originations was offset
by an increase in commercial lending. Bankers reported
a notable increase in demand for commercial loans and
credit that they attributed to firms’ initiating projects
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.clevelandfed.org/en/region/regional-analysis
D-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Richmond
The Beige Book ■ August 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
On balance, economic activity in the Fifth District slowed slightly in recent weeks. Manufacturers reported a modest pull
back in new orders while supply chains improved slightly, leading to reduced backlogs and higher inventory levels.
District ports and trucking companies reported slight declines in shipping volumes and shipping rates; however, volumes
were still high relative to their pre-pandemic levels. Retailers reported little change in total sales, overall, with some
reports of shifts and reductions in consumer demand. Similarly, travel and tourism contacts saw flat to slightly declining
consumer demand. Residential real estate sales slowed moderately, leading to increases in inventory and average days
on the market; however, the housing market remains historically tight. Commercial real estate held steady, overall, but
there were some reports of slowing demand in the office segment and a slight reduction in construction projects. Financial institutions reported modest declines in commercial lending and residential mortgages but solid demand for auto
loans, particularly for used vehicles. Nonfinancial firms saw moderate growth but remained very concerned about inflation. Employment rose strongly in recent weeks and a majority firms reported increasing wages to recruit and retain
workers. Price growth picked up slightly and continued to increase robustly, year-over-year.
Labor Markets
Manufacturing
Since the last report, the Fifth District labor market remained tight while employment grew strongly. Firms
continued to report off-cycle wage increases to attract
and retain workers and planned to raise wages again on
their typical annual cycle. Several contacts reported
reducing hours of service or turning down work because
they did not have enough employees. An increasing
number of contacts mentioned concerns about a possible
economic downturn, but this has not slowed down their
hiring and many firms expected to increase their employment in the next six months.
On balance, Fifth District manufacturers reported modest
declines in new orders. Some survey contacts reported
improving, but still strained, supply chains as order backlogs and vendor lead times both decreased. Some manufacturers reported higher inventories, which many attributed to a varying combination of a pullback in demand and improving supply chains. Firms also reported
that the cost of raw materials and energy prices remained elevated, although some noted that prices have
eased somewhat from their recent peaks. Contacts
continued to report difficulty finding workers with jobspecific skills but had less trouble hiring office workers.
Prices
Ports and Transportation
Since our previous report, price growth edged higher
from an already robust year-over-year rate. Firms in both
manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors reported a
slight uptick in the rate of price growth for their goods
and services. Input price growth, on the other hand,
picked up slightly for service sector firms but was flat for
manufacturers. Several producers noted that supply
chain issues continue to lead to volatility in the availability and prices for inputs. One manufacturer added that
not only were raw material prices rising, but so were the
prices they pay for business-to-business services.
Fifth District ports indicated that shipping volumes weakened slightly this period. Imports again outpaced exports
but there was some improvement in loaded exports.
There was a steady volume of empties leaving the ports,
allowing for reduced container congestion. However,
there continued to be higher than normal dwell times of
imports at the ports mainly due to chassis and warehouse constraints. Import volumes at Fifth District ports
continued to be led by furniture and construction equipment. Spot shipping rates maintained their decline but
were still above their 2019 levels. Air freight volume
decreased this period partially due to carriers taking
E-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
planes out of service for routine maintenance. Air freight
rates remained elevated despite slightly lower fuel costs.
construction continued but new housing starts were
down; some input costs declined this period, like lumber,
but on the whole residential construction costs remained
elevated.
Trucking companies stated that demand had slowed
and the number of booked orders had decreased, but
that they were not struggling to find loads as customers
were still having issues with supply-chain inventory
backlogs. Respondents indicated that there was expanding truckload capacity with spot rates down 30%
since spring; though, less-than-truckload shipping rates
remained unchanged. Most firms reported an improvement in hiring drivers. Trucking companies noted continued challenges obtaining parts to maintain their equipment, causing equipment to be out-of-service for longer
periods.
Commercial real estate activity remained stable. Some
respondents noted that office and retail market activity
was starting to slow while the industrial or multifamily
segments continued to experience strong leasing demand, low vacancy rates, and increasing rental rates.
There remained a shortage of Class A office space,
especially in suburban markets, and the amount of sublease space had been shrinking. Retail vacancy rates
continued to edge down; but less desirable retail centers
were still struggling with vacancies. New commercial
construction projects decreased slightly due to higher
construction costs, lack of availability of some materials,
and increased interest rates. Commercial real estate
capital market activity softened this period.
Retail, Travel, and Tourism
On balance, retailers reported little to no change in
revenues and a slight softening of consumer demand in
recent weeks. A few contacts in the fast casual food
service industry reported steady sales and demand but
saw more consumers shifting away from in-person
ordering to third party delivery services. A furniture
company said that they were still rebuilding their inventory but were seeing less demand due to price increases. Auto dealers continued to report low inventory levels, low sales volumes, and some hesitancies by consumers due to high vehicle costs and higher interest
rates for auto loans.
Banking and Finance
Loan demand continued to slow modestly across all
commercial loan types, with this being attributed to both
rising rates and economic uncertainty. Residential mortgage demand continued to slow as well, also attributed
to rising interest rates. Auto loan demand, especially
used autos, remained stable as rising interest rates did
not restrict demand. Deposit growth was flat despite
institutions noting they had started to increase rates.
Overall loan quality remained good, but some respondents noted delinquency rates were starting to move
slightly upward, mainly in their consumer portfolio. Borrower credit quality remained good with no signs of
deterioration.
Travel and tourism contacts reported steady to slightly
lower revenues and demand. Hotels in the Fifth District
gave mixed reports. A hotel in South Carolina said that
occupancy in July was down from June but that was
typical, and compared to last June occupancy was up.
In contrast, a hotel in North Carolina saw occupancy
rates lower this July than last year, which was the first
time this year that occupancy was down compared to
the same month last year. However, their average revenue per room was reportedly up and future booking
remained strong. Business air travel reportedly picked
up and a port contact reported strong demand for leisure
cruises.
Nonfinancial Services
Nonfinancial service providers continued to report moderate growth and stable demand. Contacts were still
concerned that their increased costs could slow growth
and negatively impact employment. Several firms noted
the lack of labor and supply chain issues were still impacting their ability to expand. They continue to find
creative ways to attract and maintain their employee
base, but this was seen as a temporary fix. One firm
noted they are observing a reduction in consumer
spending and visits to entertainment districts in their
area. Inflation in all areas of their businesses was a top
concern of many firms. ■
Real Estate and Construction
Residential real estate market activity declined moderately this period. Respondents indicated that sales
volumes were slightly lower and there was a reduction in
buyer traffic. Inventories of homes for sale and days on
market increased while home prices have softened.
Demand remained strong but it was noted that affordability was an issue as some buyers no longer qualified to
purchase a house due to elevated home prices coupled
with increasing mortgage rates. Existing new home
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.richmondfed.org/research/data_analysis
E-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Atlanta
The Beige Book ■ August 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
The Sixth District economy expanded slightly from July through mid-August. Pressures in the labor markets lessened
somewhat, but overall, the labor market remained tight amid persistent wage pressures. Certain nonlabor costs fell, but
remained elevated as compared with pre-pandemic levels. Retailers reported declining unit sales and evidence of
consumers trading down from brand names to private label products. Demand for automobiles was strong, but
inventory shortages continued to hinder sales. Leisure travel activity slowed while business travel continued to recover.
Demand for housing continued to fall as affordability further declined. Commercial real estate activity remained mixed.
Manufacturing activity was robust, though some slowing was reported. Transportation activity varied. Deposit growth
continued to slow at financial institutions, but loan growth improved.
Labor Markets
showed year-over-year unit cost growth remained
unchanged at 4.3 percent, on average. Firms' yearahead inflation expectations decreased to 3.5 percent,
on average, from 3.7 percent in July.
Sixth District labor market pressures eased modestly
since the previous report, as several employers reported
an uptick in applicants and some lessening in turnover.
However, conditions remained tight and several noted
ongoing automation efforts designed to reduce labor
reliance. Housing affordability and higher costs of living
were said to be limiting the pool of workers in some
areas. Some indicated that retention had improved in
response to growing economic uncertainty. No business
contacts reported layoffs, but several said that they had
begun to shrink headcount through attrition, reduce open
positions, and fill positions more slowly. Several firms
anticipate layoffs amid slowing demand later this year
and into next year.
Consumer Spending and Tourism
District retailers reported declining unit sales and an
increase in consumers trading down from brand name
to private label products, attributed to diminishing real
discretionary income. Automobile dealerships continued
to report healthy demand for new vehicles, but sales
were muted by inventory shortages. Most retailers are
cautiously optimistic for the upcoming holiday season.
Travel and tourism contacts experienced slowing
demand for leisure travel, described as a return to more
“normal,” pre-pandemic levels. Business travel and
convention activity continued to recover with healthy
bookings for the fall, although still below 2019 levels.
Contacts are optimistic that travel will continue to
normalize throughout the remainder of the year.
Most employers reported persistent upward wage
pressure. Many firms tried to offset higher wages with
bonuses and per diems to attract workers and
incentivize attendance and productivity. Enhanced
benefits options were also offered. The outlook for wage
growth was mixed; some expect wage growth to remain
strong, while others anticipate it will subside over the
next year.
Construction and Real Estate
Housing markets remained challenged across the
District due to rising home prices and interest rates,
declining affordability, and inventory shortages.
Although some markets experienced a sharp increase in
home prices over the past year as housing demand in
these regions exceeded supply, overall homebuyer
sentiment throughout the District dropped sharply,
mortgage originations and pending home sales declined
compared with a year ago, and the share of homes on
the market with a reduced asking price rose. Though
construction supply chain issues eased and cost
inflation slowed, homebuilders experienced increased
contract cancellations as rising interest rates priced
Prices
Freight costs continued to slowly decline over the
reporting period, and costs for some inputs like copper,
lumber, and steel softened from pandemic highs but
remained elevated. Numerous contacts reported
diminished pricing power, either through pushback in
negotiations or reduced demand, and there was
widespread uncertainty over near-term inflationary
impacts on demand. Gasoline prices also moderated,
but rent, utilities, and food prices continued to climb. The
Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations survey
F-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
securities portfolios declined, reflective of slowing
deposit growth. Financial institutions reported strong
asset quality metrics, although the level of
nonperforming assets increased slightly. Provisions for
credit losses also increased. Improved earnings were
driven by higher net interest margins offsetting lower
noninterest fee income.
more buyers out of the market.
District commercial real estate (CRE) activity was mixed.
Contacts reported healthy conditions in the multifamily
and industrial markets, but voiced concerns that
negative sentiment associated with a potential economic
slowdown could impact activity. Slowing occurred in
certain segments of retail CRE as some contacts
reported a growing number of restaurant closings.
Contacts also noted increasing concerns about possible
declining CRE values as the bid-ask spread widened,
pools of buyers diminished, the number of buyers
seeking concessions grew, and prices declining in some
of the less robust property types.
Energy
Energy contacts indicated that the supply of crude oil
and gasoline did not keep pace with demand over the
reporting period. Oil refining utilization eased slightly,
which contacts attributed to some refiners completing
previously delayed maintenance projects. However,
refiners experienced strong margins and are expected
to rebuild product inventories over the balance of the
year. Natural gas production trended up and exports
soared. Utility contacts reported rising demand for
power, driven by hot weather and strong growth in retail
and commercial customers; utilities also experienced
higher fuel and power costs, resulting in higher utility
bills for customers. Providers continued to diversify
power generation systems, including investing in
renewables, particularly solar and wind.
Manufacturing
District manufacturers continued to report strong
demand, though a few noted a slowing of activity since
the previous report. Some improvement in delivery times
was mentioned. However, according to the Atlanta Fed’s
Business Inflation Expectations Survey, more than half
of manufacturing respondents experienced moderate or
severe supply chain disruptions causing shortages of
supplies or inputs. Roughly two-thirds of manufacturers
surveyed noted concerns about a potential recession
due to inflation, rising interest rates, stock market
volatility, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Most
manufacturers expect sales over the next twelve months
to be similar or slightly higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Agriculture
Demand for agricultural products remained strong. Hot
weather and dry spells damaged crop yields, particularly
corn, in many areas of the District. Prices paid to
farmers were elevated overall but fell somewhat for corn
and milk. Restrictions on imports from China led to
higher demand for domestic cotton. Demand for poultry
exceeded supply, while the beef market held steady.
Long lead times for machinery and parts forced many
farmers to use decommissioned machinery and some
small farms suffered crop losses due to inoperable
equipment. ■
Transportation
Activity was mixed for District transportation firms. Container ports continued to see record container volumes.
Inland barge companies reported solid coal exports and
refined petroleum product shipments. Trucking activity
slowed for some carriers, and freight brokerages saw
spot market rates drop and slowing demand for flatbed
services. Rail activity declined as domestic intermodal
freight, lumber shipments, and international chemical
volumes fell.
Banking and Finance
District banking conditions were steady. Loan growth
improved despite higher interest rates, while growth in
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.atlantafed.org/economy-matters/regional-economics
F-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago
The Beige Book ■ August 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Seventh District decreased modestly overall in July and early August. Contacts expected slow
growth in the coming months, with many expressing concerns about the potential for a recession. Employment increased moderately, business spending was little changed, consumer spending and construction and real estate declined modestly, and manufacturing orders were down moderately. Wages rose rapidly, as did most prices, while financial conditions improved modestly. Agriculture income expectations for 2022 were unchanged. Nonbusiness contacts
reported little change in economic activity.
Labor Markets
ly moved up robustly (apart from declines in fuel prices)
due to solid demand levels and passthrough of higher
costs.
Employment increased moderately over the reporting
period, and contacts expected a similar pace of growth
over the next 12 months. Many contacts continued to
report difficulty in finding workers across sectors and skill
levels. One contact in construction said they had rushed
completion of a restaurant in time for a local festival, but
the restaurant couldn’t open because of lack of staff.
Still, a number of contacts said finding workers had
become easier. In addition, a workforce development
agency saw an increase in the number of people coming
in for job placement assistance or to apply for unemployment insurance benefits. Overall, wage and benefit costs
increased rapidly and were aimed both at attracting new
workers and retaining existing talent. In addition to labor
market tightness, contacts cited high inflation as an
impetus for workers requesting wage increases.
Consumer Spending
Consumer spending decreased modestly over the reporting period. Contacts noted that unit-sales of goods
had fallen and that leisure and hospitality spending declined, albeit from a strong level earlier in the summer.
Consumers continued to shift their spending toward
essential items. Grocery contacts noted that trading
down picked up across income levels—lower income
shoppers moved to store brands over name brands while
higher income shoppers shifted toward prepared foods
from eating out. Contacts expected a slight increase in
back-to-school sales over last year. Light vehicle sales
were unchanged at a low level, although dealers indicated that pre-orders of new vehicles stayed robust.
Prices
Business Spending
Most prices rose rapidly in July and early August, though
energy prices decreased. Contacts expected the pace of
price increases to slow over the next 12 months. Aside
from a decline in energy costs, producer prices continued to rise, spurred by passthrough of higher costs for
raw materials, labor, and shipping. However, growth in
raw materials prices continued to slow, with contacts
highlighting lower steel prices. Consumer prices general-
Business spending was little changed on balance in July
and early August. Retail inventories were elevated overall, and contacts expected to see increased price promotions for the rest of the year to help pare them down.
Auto inventories increased slightly from their pandemic
lows. In manufacturing, inventories were moderately
elevated, as contacts reported building up “just-in-case”
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Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
stocks of available inputs while also holding on to nearly
completed products as they waited for missing parts to
arrive. Retail and manufacturing contacts expected
various inventory challenges to persist into 2023. Transportation services activity decreased slightly as greater
congestion in the rail system slowed container movement. Capital expenditures increased modestly, with
contacts highlighting purchases of new equipment, including machinery and vehicles. Commercial, residential,
and industrial energy consumption was up slightly.
lower volatility. Business loan demand slowed slightly
overall, with contacts pointing to higher borrowing rates
and elevated uncertainty as contributing to the slowdown. Business loan quality remained very strong,
though one contact said they were planning for some
weakening in the coming months. Business loan standards tightened some. In consumer markets, loan volumes decreased modestly, with contacts continuing to
note large declines in mortgage lending in the face of
higher interest rates. Consumer loan quality was strong
and stable, while standards tightened a bit.
Construction and Real Estate
Agriculture
Construction and real estate activity decreased modestly
overall. Residential construction pulled back slightly, and
homebuilders expected a further decline in coming
months. Residential real estate activity decreased moderately. Contacts noted that the number of offers homes
typically received had fallen and that it was taking longer
for them to sell. Home price growth slowed but remained
positive. Rents were up modestly. Nonresidential construction decreased slightly, as contacts continued to
report project delays and elevated costs. Commercial
real estate activity also fell slightly, with contacts highlighting some cooling in the strong demand for industrial
space. There were concerns about the ability of owners
of multifamily properties to repay floating interest rate
loans that were underwritten with large forecasted rent
increases. Prices and rents fell slightly, as did vacancy
rates.
Agricultural income prospects for 2022 were little
changed, with contacts continuing to expect that most
producers would turn a profit this year. Although portions
of the District were in drought, farms were generally
expected to have at least average yields for corn and
soybeans. Crop progress was behind the typical pace
due to late plantings but was catching up. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices were down from the previous
reporting period, as were prices for milk and eggs. Hog
prices declined slightly from a high level, while cattle
prices edged up. Strong demand for agricultural equipment continued, with long lead times for delivery.
Community Conditions
Community development organizations and public administrators reported little change in overall economic
activity, although inflation was creating financial challenges for some organizations and their clients. State
government officials saw healthy growth in tax revenues
over the reporting period. Small business development
organizations noted their manufacturing clients’ large
order backlogs would take time to clear because of labor
and supply chain constraints. Small business investment
demand waned some due to higher interest rates and
elevated economic uncertainty. Nonprofits assisting lowand moderate-income households indicated that higher
prices for fuel, food, and housing were straining household budgets and leading to strong demand for their
services. Nonprofits also noted financial challenges, as
their funding was unable to keep up with rising staff
wages. ■
Manufacturing
Manufacturing demand was down moderately in July and
early August. Contacts again reported that with slowing
new orders they were making headway in filling their
large backlog of unfilled orders. Still, one contact indicated that at many manufacturers, current backlogs were
large enough to sustain production levels through the
end of the year. Output continued to be held back by
difficulties with labor availability and supply chains. Steel
demand decreased modestly, with one contact noting a
decline in construction demand. There was a moderate
fall in orders of fabricated metals, led by declines in
demand from the transportation sector. Auto production
was little changed, as shortages of microchips and other
materials persisted. One contact said there is growing
recognition in the auto industry that the microchip shortage would continue well into 2023. Heavy truck demand
increased slightly, while inventories continue to be very
low. Demand for heavy machinery was flat.
Banking and Finance
Financial conditions improved modestly over the reporting period. Participants in the equity and bond markets
reported net increases in asset values and somewhat
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
chicagofed.org/cfsec
G-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis
The Beige Book ■ August 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic conditions have declined slightly since our previous report. Consumer demand for goods and services has
slowed slightly and price increases have continued across a broad range of sectors. Labor shortages have limited activity in service sectors, and employers continue to raise wages to attract and retain workers. Input prices rose, and most
firms reported plans to pass additional increases on to consumers. Real estate contacts saw homebuying activity slow
significantly, while demand for rental properties strengthened. The agriculture and manufacturing sectors experienced
continued supply chain bottlenecks and input shortages that contributed to price increases. The overall outlook for business conditions over the next 12 months has improved slightly but remains pessimistic.
to consumers. A contact in the health care industry reported “double digit” increases in payroll costs. Multiple
contacts in the hospitality industry reported higher input
costs, but reports on the pass-through rate to consumers
were mixed. A furniture store contact expects sales
prices to decrease due to excess supplier inventory.
Labor Markets
Employment activity has been mixed since our previous
report. Contacts across the District continue to report
that workers remained scarce. Several St. Louis public
schools temporarily suspended school bus services
because of a shortage of drivers. Some firms utilized
flexible hours, bonuses, and increased entry-level pay to
fill jobs and retain workers. In contrast, some Arkansas
contacts reported recent signs of the labor market easing, including wage pressures beginning to level out.
Consumer Spending
District general retailers, auto dealers, and hospitality
contacts reported mixed business activity and a mixed
outlook. One retailer in St. Louis noted that they had a
dramatic improvement in sales in early August; although
they are not completely sure of the reason, they suspect
that declining fuel prices played a big role. An auto dealer in Little Rock reported that some of their customers
are asking to be let out of their vehicle order commitments. Most restaurants in Louisville noted that overall
customer volume is down considerably. Hospitality contacts reported mixed business activity compared with this
time last year and a mixed outlook for the upcoming
months.
Wages across the District have grown moderately since
our previous report. One Louisville-area professional
services firm gave workers bonuses to keep up with
inflation, and a Little Rock leisure and recreation contact
had to raise their skilled labor wages by 15%. Some
short-staffed firms reported they were continuing to offer
incentives to work more hours or on weekends but were
still receiving few to no takers.
Prices
Prices have increased moderately since our previous
report. Approximately half of all contacts reported modest to moderate increases in prices charged to consumers. A jewelry retailer reported higher prices charged to
consumers and expects to further raise prices in coming
months. Auto dealers reported increased prices charged
Manufacturing
Overall manufacturing activity increased slightly since
our previous report. Survey-based indices suggest that
production, capacity utilization, and new orders have all
increased slightly, while inventory levels and employment remain low. Production times are still longer than
H-1
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
they were pre-pandemic, and supply chain issues still
limit the availability of key inputs. Though the backlog of
orders remains long, the rate of new orders has slowed
due to softening demand. Labor shortages from COVIDrelated absenteeism are still a major concern for manufacturers. On average, firms reported they expect slight
increases in production, capacity utilization, and new
orders in the coming quarter.
Banking and Finance
Banking conditions in the District have seen little change
since our previous report. On average, surveyed bankers
indicated that overall loan demand has decreased slightly compared with the same quarter of last year. While
mortgage loan demand has declined, due to a combination of rising interest rates and low housing inventory,
demand for commercial and industrial loans has increased moderately. Delinquency rates for all loans are
largely unchanged relative to the same quarter of last
year, and watch-list loans remain manageable. Banking
contacts in Louisville expect more competitive deposit
rates in the coming months, as liquidity wanes from its
previously high levels.
Nonfinancial Services
Activity in the nonfinancial services sector has decreased slightly since our previous report. While freight
air traffic has slightly increased, passenger traffic decreased. A ground transportation company in Kentucky
reported struggling to meet demand and to find new
trucks and mechanics. Healthcare firms in the Louisville
region saw tight labor markets and high employee turnover rates. Labor costs increased as outpatient medical
clinics competed with hospitals for the same credentialed
employees by increasing pay by 25% and paying licensing fees, but an increase in appointment cancellations
and higher out-of-pocket expenses for patients led to
fewer sales this quarter. In Eastern Missouri and Northern Kentucky, post-secondary education institutions saw
lower enrollment as fewer people opted to attend college, and childcare contacts reported that a lack of qualified applicants inhibited expansion.
Agriculture and Natural Resources
District agriculture conditions have moderately worsened
since our previous report. Compared with the previous
reporting period, crop conditions in the District have
either slightly declined or remained relatively unchanged.
Relative to the previous year, the percentage of corn,
cotton, and soybeans rated fair or better sharply declined, while the same measure for rice slightly increased. Worsened conditions may be partially attributable to the droughts and severe flooding that have affected the District, especially Missouri and Kentucky. Additionally, District contacts indicated that farming conditions remained strained due to input prices and labor
shortages, with the ability to hire quality labor being their
biggest concern.
Real Estate and Construction
Commercial real estate activity has slowed slightly since
our previous report, with large office buildings competing
for few clients. Industrial real estate inventory remains
extremely low, though industrial construction activity has
increased.
Natural resource production fell moderately from July to
August, with seasonally adjusted coal production decreasing just above 7%. Additionally, production is down
approximately 3% from a year ago. ■
Residential real estate demand has slowed significantly
since our previous report. Contacts reported that it remains a seller’s market, but the “multiple-offer” market
has ended. Prices remain elevated compared with one
year ago, and inventories are just beginning to return to
pre-pandemic levels. An Arkansas real estate contact
noted that, while demand has contracted, it remains
above pre-pandemic levels.
Demand for rental units has continued to increase since
our previous report—especially for single-family housing.
Rental rates in all four major District MSAs increased
since our previous report. The general outlook of contacts remains negative, with over 80% of contacts in real
estate and construction describing their outlook as
somewhat or significantly worse than the previous quarter.
H-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Minneapolis
The Beige Book ■ August 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Ninth District was slightly lower since early July. Employment grew moderately since the last
report. Wage pressures were strong as labor demand remained healthy and labor availability was still tight. Price pressures were strong but eased slightly. Manufacturing and energy activity increased slightly since the last report. Consumer spending was flat overall with contacts reporting a wide variety of conditions. Commercial construction and real estate
were flat, while residential construction and real estate declined. Agricultural conditions strengthened modestly, though
drought threatened crop production in some parts of the District. Reports from minority- and women-owned business
enterprises were mixed.
Labor Markets
Prices
Employment grew moderately since the last report.
Multiple surveys from late July through the last half of
August confirmed that labor demand from District
employers remained very healthy. A large majority of
employers were actively looking for labor in some
capacity, including many hoping to add full-time,
permanent workers to their total workforce. However,
employers continued to report difficulty finding and hiring
workers for open positions. Larger firms reported more
success in hiring workers compared with smaller firms,
but they were also experiencing rising turnover rates.
Total job openings have dipped recently, but initial
unemployment claims also fell over the most recent fourweek period (through mid-August) compared with the
previous four-week period.
Price pressures remained elevated but eased slightly
since the last report. More than half of respondents to a
monthly survey of Ninth District businesses said their
nonlabor input prices increased in July compared with
the previous month, while three-fifths said that prices
they charged to customers were unchanged or
decreased. While manufacturers continued to see strong
price pressures for raw materials and transportation,
several reported that steel prices have declined recently.
“Metal markets are cooling off significantly,” noted one
contact. Prices for certain inputs such as lumber and
copper also eased, according to contacts. Agricultural
producers continued to report significant input cost
pressures, particularly for fertilizer. Retail fuel prices in
District states declined briskly since the previous report.
Wage pressures remained strong. A large majority of
employers reported higher wages, and those raising
wages by more than 5 percent increased modestly from
earlier in the year. A health care firm in Michigan’s Upper
Peninsula said that lower revenue might lead to potential
staffing cuts. “But to keep good employees, we have to
pay them more than the 5 percent raise we normally
give.” Among many strategies to attract labor, firms
reported that raising wages was by far the most common
strategy, followed by increased work flexibility, lowered
job experience requirements, better benefits, and
outsourcing more work.
Worker Experience
Unemployed respondents to a recent survey in Montana
were prioritizing higher wages, more flexibility, and better
benefits as they looked for jobs. Employed job seekers
were mainly looking for better pay and career
advancement. Respondents listed child care costs and
availability and the need for skills to meet job
requirements as the top barriers to employment. "Lack of
reliable childcare has caused many issues in finding and
keeping a job," shared a recently unemployed survey
participant. A social services job seeker expressed
frustration at having applied for 28 jobs but only hearing
I-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
back from one. A partially retired nonprofit worker was
considering returning to full-time work due to inflation
pressures and the declining value of retirement savings.
Pressures from higher food and fuel costs were broadly
spread among workers.
-family homes were lower in markets across the District,
with many seeing recent year-over-year sales decline by
10 percent to 30 percent.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity increased slightly since the
previous report, with some signs of slowing. An index of
regional manufacturing conditions indicated increased
activity in Minnesota and South Dakota in July compared
with a month earlier, while activity in North Dakota
decreased. Manufacturing respondents to business
surveys reported decreased new orders on balance.
Expectations for the near future were generally positive,
but about a third of manufacturers said their outlook for
the second half of 2022 was somewhat or very
pessimistic. A packaging producer announced the
closure of a plant in Minnesota.
Consumer Spending
Consumer spending was flat overall since the last report,
with contacts reporting a wide variety of conditions.
Several shopping centers reported that sales at home
furnishing stores, services firms, and restaurants were
solid, while apparel and luxury retail sales dropped.
Tourism businesses reported strong activity across much
of Montana, but the southern region was still suffering
from closed entrances to Yellowstone National Park. An
August survey of Minnesota hospitality and tourism firms
found modest revenue growth compared with the start of
summer and with the same period last year. In southern
Minnesota, “distilleries, wineries, [and] restaurants are
banging right now.” But some firms reported slowing
sales, including an entertainment center whose
customers were “not being as frivolous with spending” as
earlier in the year. Sales of cars, trucks, and various
recreational vehicles have slowed, in some cases
significantly, with lower demand and continued inventory
shortages both playing a role. Contacts said business
travel remained subdued.
Agriculture, Energy, and Natural Resources
District agricultural conditions strengthened modestly
since the previous report, with notable exceptions. A
survey of agricultural credit conditions pointed to
continued growth in farm incomes; 80 percent of farm
lenders said incomes in their area increased in the
second quarter from a year earlier. While lenders
reported continued concerns about rising production
costs, commodity prices were strong enough to offset
them. However, wheat and small grains production in
Montana will be severely impacted by drought for the
second year in a row. District oil and gas exploration
activity increased slightly since the last report. A regional
electrical transmission operator announced a multibilliondollar, long-term expansion to its grid infrastructure.
Production at District iron ore mines was expected to
decrease significantly in 2022 from the previous year,
due largely to an idling at one facility along with
reductions in output at others.
Construction and Real Estate
Commercial construction was flat since the last report.
Among several dozen contacts, revenue trends were
modestly higher, which some contacts attributed to
higher input costs getting passed on to customers. More
than half said profits declined. Firms reported decent
project backlogs but many challenges, including long
product lead times and uncertain pricing that “make it
hard to bid projects and not lose money,” said one
contact. Residential housing slowed. Recent singlefamily permitting was lower across the District’s larger
markets compared with a year earlier, with higher
interest rates reportedly pushing some builders and
buyers to pause projects.
Minority- and Women-Owned Business Enterprises
Reports from minority- and women-owned business
enterprises in the District were mixed. Services firms
reported experiencing positive sales and profits while
some retail and hospitality contacts had much lower
sales compared to the same time last year. Hiring,
prices, and the availability of input materials remained a
challenge for many. Outlooks for the next four-week
period were slightly more positive; contacts expected
sales and profits to improve and other production
pressures to ease. A contact in Minnesota noted that
"supplier notifications of price increases slowed down
significantly.” ■
Commercial real estate was flat overall since the last
report. Real estate sources said that the office market
continued to soften, with rising vacancy rates and
subleasing activity. Office space sales also remained
subdued with the increase in interest rates and related
financing costs. However, demand for industrial space
remained high, and low vacancy rates were spurring a
host of new construction projects, including an increase
in speculative developments, according to a source.
Residential real estate activity fell. Closed sales of single
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
minneapolisfed.org/region-and-community
I-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Kansas City
The Beige Book ■ August 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
The Tenth District economy expanded slightly, with much of the growth in business sales and revenue being driven by
higher prices rather than a greater volume of activity. Consumer spending was mostly unchanged. Yet, more households
began to report difficulty in meeting regular expenses, and delinquencies on utility payments picked up slightly. Amid high
levels of overall production, new orders and backlogs at manufacturers declined modestly, indicating some softening of
overall demand. Job growth was constrained by difficulties in attracting applicants. Many contacts indicated that worker
turnover declined moderately, and that they were better able to retain high quality workers in recent months. Many businesses reported that they raised worker compensation mid-year in response to high inflation. Prices in the District rose
broadly at a robust pace. Lags in the ability to fully pass-through costs led most contacts to report declining margins.
Housing rental rates also increased in recent months. Several contacts pointed to an increased prevalence of property
investors in both rural and metro rental markets contributing to rental cost pressures.
Labor Markets
Prices
Employment grew at a moderate pace in the Tenth
District, as the overwhelming majority of contacts expressed difficulty in filling newly opened positions. Most
businesses pointed to low numbers of applicants, or
qualified applicants, as the primary challenge to recruiting. Many contacts also highlighted difficulty in meeting
workers’ expectations regarding compensation. Worker
turnover declined moderately across industries and
across District states. Many businesses noted that they
have been better able to retain higher quality workers in
recent months, although retention continues to be a
challenge. Expectations for hiring over the next six
months declined modestly as some businesses indicated
they do not plan to add to their workforce for the remainder of the year.
Prices continued to grow at a robust pace. Most contacts
reported a slight slowing of input price growth from recent highs, particularly for commodity-related materials.
In contrast to the past year, where supply chain disruptions led to outsized increases in input costs for particular products, several contacts noted that input cost pressures are now more broad-based and incremental. Businesses’ ability to pass price increases to customers
improved moderately. On balance, though, most businesses indicated that price margins declined further as
higher selling prices continued to be insufficient to fully
offset higher materials costs and rising labor costs.
Consumer Spending
Total consumer spending changed little over recent
months. However, several contacts noted sales revenues were supported by higher prices, as quantities sold
fell slightly. For example, even restaurants with lower
price points commented the number of transactions was
lower over the last month. Although consumer delinquencies on credit cards and mortgages remained subdued, more households began to express difficulty in
meeting regular expenses as prices rose. Delinquencies
on household utility bills picked up slightly.
Contacts reported broadly they made mid-year adjustments to worker compensation that were tied directly to
inflation pressures. Nearly all contacts reported wage
increases. In addition, many businesses also made onetime bonus payments, added flexibility in work schedules, or adjusted the benefits they offer. Looking ahead,
contacts were mixed on whether further changes to
wages or other compensation will be needed before the
end of the year. Most contacts expressed they would be
more likely to continue inflation-related bonus payments.
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Community Conditions
Community and Regional Banking
Housing affordability challenges for both renters and
owners grew moderately in both rural and metro areas,
particularly for low and moderate income (LMI) households. Contacts in several District states pointed to pressures on rental housing prices resulting from increases
in investor purchases of local homes. Some investors
have been reportedly less willing to accept vouchers or
less willing to negotiate rents. Although purchase prices
of single-family homes moderated somewhat, contacts
reported that rising interest rates have pushed many
prospective LMI buyers out of the market. Eviction cases
increased in recent months. For example, a record number of eviction cases were filed in the Oklahoma County
District Court in July and August. Funds from assistance
programs for preventing evictions and foreclosures diminished recently.
Loan demand weakened modestly in the past month as
rising interest rates and heightened economic uncertainty adversely affected borrower demand. Contacts noted
that credit standards remained unchanged and credit
quality was stable, with low past due and problem asset
levels. Deposits were stable across community and
regional banks in the District, but several contacts noted
that competition for deposits intensified as rates rose
further. Bankers largely expected credit quality to remain
stable over the next six months, but concerns were
noted regarding rising inflation and the prospect of a
recession.
Energy
Tenth District energy activity was roughly unchanged
over the last month, with notable differences across
segments of the energy sector. The overall number of
newly drilled wells and well completions were steady on
net over the last month. Declines in oil prices led to a
slight reduction in total active oil drilling rigs in the District. Offsetting those declines, robust increases in natural gas prices contributed to moderate increases in the
number of rigs targeted towards natural gas production.
Contacts noted that surging natural gas prices were
driven by confluence of low inventories, high summer
demand amidst historic heat waves, and rising exports.
Coal producers also saw a slight uptick in production,
due to persistently high demand from electricity generation and elevated coal prices.
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity
Revenues at manufacturing firms expanded slightly,
primarily due to robust growth in prices with slight decreases in production. Inventories grew mildly. Manufacturing contacts reported modest declines in a number of
forward-looking indicators, such as new orders and order
backlogs, which point to a tempering of otherwise high
levels of demand. Services business contacts, both
professional-oriented and consumer-facing, reported
moderate growth in revenues but only modest increases
on overall activity. Contacts also noted persistent supply
chain disruptions continue to hamper growth. In line with
softening demand, expectations for future activity over
the next six months and planned capital expenditures
eased slightly.
Agriculture
Conditions for the Tenth District’s farm economy remained favorable, supported by the overall strength in
commodity prices, despite elevated volatility in certain
markets in recent months. Crop prices remained generally higher than a year ago, but were lower in August
compared to earlier in the summer. Specifically, corn and
wheat prices declined moderately, and soybean prices
also dropped slightly during the past month. Heightened
production costs and adverse growing conditions were
worse than the national average in some District states
over the past month. Several farmers noted that, even
with elevated levels of revenue expected this year, net
income levels would likely be more subdued. In the
livestock sector, profit opportunities remained sound as
cattle prices were slightly higher than the previous reporting period and hog prices increased notably. ■
Real Estate and Construction
Growth in non-residential real estate activity expanded at
a moderate pace. While office vacancies remained elevated, demand for industrial space grew rapidly, and
occupancy of retail spaces continued to expand at a
moderate pace. Planned development for industrial sites
expanded at a robust pace in several states. However,
contacts expressed mixed views regarding future development and building activity for commercial properties.
As financial conditions continued to tighten, several
contacts noted that they were able to adjust terms and
covenants, and to continue with planned construction.
Other contacts indicated that persistently high materials
costs and labor shortages are inhibiting further new
development of large commercial projects.
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.KansasCityFed.org/research/regional-research
J-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
Dallas
The Beige Book ■ August 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
Growth in the Eleventh District economy continued at a modest pace, though job growth was quite robust. Manufacturing and service sector activity continued to slow, growing at a diminished clip from earlier this year. Retail sales were flat
to down, and homes sales remained relatively subdued. Loan demand continued to increase but at a markedly slower
pace. Local nonprofits reported increased demand for rent and food assistance amid rising costs. The energy sector
expanded further while ongoing drought resulted in significantly lower crop production and culling of livestock herds.
Wage growth remained highly elevated due to a tight labor market. Supply chain bottlenecks have begun easing and
prices were not rising as fast, though inflation is still high. Outlooks were mixed as uncertainty remained elevated, and
contacts voiced concern about slowing demand and the risk of a recession stemming from high prices, weakening consumer sentiment, and rising interest rates.
Labor Markets
Prices
Robust employment growth continued, though the supply
of workers remained tight. Among 367 Texas business
executives responding to a Dallas Fed July survey, 62
percent were trying to hire and a vast majority cited lack
of applicants as an impediment. Workforce shortages
were particularly acute in manufacturing, where one
contact said they have the highest unfilled job rates in
recent history and another noted the labor pool was
more like “a labor puddle.” Transportation services firms
are experiencing shortages of drivers and pilots. Oil and
gas firms noted widespread hiring but also significant
challenges getting qualified applicants.
While input costs and selling prices continued to climb,
the pace has slowed slightly, especially for manufacturing raw materials. Price decreases have been seen for
some metals like aluminum and copper. Overall, supply
chain shortages remained a primary driver of input cost
increases, though there was some easing over the past
six weeks. High fuel prices have also pushed up costs
for a majority of firms. Most contacts report passing at
least some of their higher costs on to customers through
higher prices, though only about 10 percent were able to
pass along all. Airline ticket prices have risen, and contacts expect them to remain elevated amid persistent
labor shortages and high input costs. Looking ahead,
price increases are expected to moderate over the next
six months but remain historically elevated.
Wage growth remained high as firms tried to attract and
retain employees amid the dearth of labor. Among Texas
business trying to hire, more than half said workers
looking for more pay than offered was an impediment.
Staffing agencies in particular described a large gap
between what employers were willing to pay and the
wages job hunters were expecting. Contacts noted high
turnover at low-skill positions and openings filling at
higher pay rates. Others said they were having to pay
sizable bonuses to attract talent.
Manufacturing
Texas manufacturing activity increased modestly during
the reporting period. Output growth was led by durable
goods manufacturing such as computers and autos.
Overall manufacturing demand has waned, however,
with slightly more firms noting a decrease in new order
volumes in August than an increase. While a majority of
manufacturers continued to experience supply chain
disruptions, some say the severity has lessened. The
pullback in orders coupled with unwinding supply issues
K-1
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
has allowed firms to work through backlogs and reduce
delivery times. Petrochemical companies reported strong
business despite some logistics challenges, and refineries were running at near full utilization with very healthy
margins. Overall manufacturing outlooks were mixed,
with some contacts losing confidence amid weakening
demand.
after flattening out earlier this year amid higher mortgage
rates. Consumer, commercial, and industrial loan volumes largely held steady, while commercial real estate
loan volumes continued to increase. Loan nonperformance increased for consumer loans but continued to
decrease for other loan types, leading to little change in
nonperforming loans overall. Looking six months ahead,
contacts continue to expect that loan demand and general business activity will decrease, and loan delinquency will increase, though outlooks were somewhat less
pessimistic than six weeks ago.
Retail Sales
Retail sales were flat to down over the past six weeks,
with some contacts citing pushback from customers on
higher pricing. Broad improvement in supply chain disruptions was noted, and inventories have started to
rebuild. An auto dealer expects a slow increase in new
vehicle availability over the next year, which will put
downward pressure on prices. Overall outlooks were for
increased sales six months from now, though expectations for general business activity were less optimistic.
Energy
Oil and gas activity increased, with the Eleventh District
rig count ticking up and contacts noting strong demand
for oilfield services. Labor and supply chain challenges
continued to restrain the pace of increases in drilling and
well completions. Lead times for new oilfield equipment
have extended further. Outlooks were quite strong, as
firms seem confident that prices will remain high enough
to support continued growth in oil and gas activity.
Nonfinancial Services
The service sector continued to expand moderately
during the reporting period. Revenue growth was mostly
broad-based, with continued solid increases seen in the
transportation sector. Airlines reported elevated demand
despite high ticket prices and said leisure travel has
mostly recovered to prepandemic levels while business
travel has lagged behind. Cargo volumes through Texas
seaports experienced record-breaking growth. Staffing
firms continued to report very strong demand, including
for permanent placements for professionals. Servicesector outlooks were fairly neutral amid increased uncertainty about future business conditions.
Agriculture
Overall drought conditions improved slightly over the
past six weeks, as some areas received significant rainfall in late August. Many row crops were experiencing
high abandonment and low yields resulting in significantly lowered production this year, particularly for cotton.
High input costs and low production will financially strain
many producers. Severe drought and higher feed costs
have prompted significant culling of cattle herds.
Community Perspectives
Construction and Real Estate
Nonprofits reported increased demand for services
among the communities they serve over the past six
weeks. Inquiries regarding rent and food assistance
picked up, and contacts noted high inflation was straining household budgets. Housing costs have become a
primary concern for low-income residents, driven by an
insufficient stock of affordable housing, rapid rent hikes,
and the winding down of state and federal assistance
programs. Evictions have increased, and a rise in firsttime homelessness has been seen. Community colleges
reported enrollment increases, though matriculation
among female students has not rebounded as fast as
among males. ■
Housing market activity remained weak, particularly at
the entry level. Sales were off notably in July but improved in August partly due to a dip in mortgage rates.
Home prices were flat to down, and incentives were
becoming more widespread. Outlooks were uncertain,
with contacts expecting further weakness ahead. Apartment leasing was solid and in line with pre-COVID levels, though momentum has slowed from its 2021 highs.
Occupancy was flat to down and rent growth remained
elevated but was declining from its earlier feverish pace.
Demand for office space was mixed and construction
subdued, while industrial leasing and construction remained high.
Financial Services
Loan demand continued to increase but at a markedly
slower pace than what has been seen over the last 18
months. Total loan volume growth also declined, with
mixed movements by lending type. Residential real
estate loan volumes decreased over the past six weeks
For more information about District economic conditions visit:
www.dallasfed.org/research/texas
K-2
Federal Reserve Bank of
San Francisco
The Beige Book ■ August 2022
Summary of Economic Activity
Economic activity in the Twelfth District expanded modestly during the July through mid-August reporting period. Hiring
activity continued to grow at a modest pace, and wages grew further amid tight labor market conditions. Inflation remained elevated, albeit with some indication of slight moderation. Retail sales were stable, and activity in the consumer
and business services sectors was reportedly strong. Manufacturing output grew, while conditions in the agriculture and
resource-related sectors were mixed. Residential real estate activity eased despite strong demand for multifamily housing, and activity in commercial real estate was mixed. Lending activity was unchanged on net. Communities across the
Twelfth District were challenged by housing affordability and elevated living costs. Looking ahead, contacts expected
prices to moderate further and overall economic conditions to weaken.
Labor Markets
manufacturers and financiers reported some easing in
salary expectation from new hires. Nonetheless, employees across sectors continued to demand more comprehensive benefits, flexible work arrangements, and upfront hiring incentives.
Hiring activity continued to grow at a modest pace, although a notable portion of recruiting efforts was dedicated to replacing existing employees rather than expanding payroll. Firms reported increased employment levels
despite difficulty attracting workers in health care, retail,
education, professional services, travel, and skilled
trades. Employment in leisure and hospitality remained
far below target levels, with some employers in Southern
California relying more heavily on temporary immigrant
workers. Conversely, providers of financial services,
construction, and utilities reported an easing of labor
supply constraints, partly due to slower activity in the real
estate market. In entertainment, one contact noted that
recent mergers and acquisitions could lead to significant
layoffs. Reports indicated some improvement in employee retention, but many employers continued to highlight
persistently high turnover rates. Several business and
community representatives noted that worker fatigue has
become a more significant driver of voluntary quits.
Employers of skilled trades workers highlighted early
retirements and skill mismatch as additional constraining
factors. Many contacts revised their future hiring plans
due to the uncertain economic outlook.
Prices
Prices continued to rise during the reporting period,
albeit with some slight moderation in the rate of increase.
Reports noted persistent inflation across industries and
products, including prices for food, entertainment, insurance, packaging, natural gas, and some manufacturing
products due to continued pressures from material or
labor costs. However, falling oil prices and cooling overall demand helped alleviate some price pressures in
recent weeks. Reduced port backlogs and a stronger
dollar also helped moderate inflation of imported goods
and services. Contacts additionally noted more stable
prices for used vehicles, construction materials, and
airfares.
Community Conditions
Communities across the District reported being challenged by housing affordability, homelessness, higher
cost of living, and food insecurity. Contacts highlighted
that the lack of affordable childcare has continued to
impede parents’ access to employment. Small business
owners noted limited ability to compete for workers in the
tight labor market. Mental health and wellness service
providers mentioned the inability to meet higher demand
Wages grew further over the reporting period but at a
more moderate pace. Reports indicated that the increasing cost of living across the District, including the rising
costs for essential expenses such as food and rent,
continued to drive wage pressures upward. Several
L-1
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
for support due to the tight availability of licensed practitioners. Some contacts also noted that increased safety
concerns in downtown areas have led some businesses
to relocate.
prioritize water usage. Farmers throughout the District
reported strong international demand for both fresh and
processed foods. Shipping bottlenecks eased slightly in
recent weeks, but overall supply chain disruptions persisted. Utilities reported continued challenges meeting
demand as labor and materials shortages delayed
maintenance and expansion projects. Input costs, despite some relief in fuel prices, remained elevated.
Retail Trade and Services
Retail sales were stable during the reporting period.
Demand for retail goods remained strong but elevated
prices and economic uncertainty shifted consumer
spending away from discretionary goods and toward
food and energy. Contacts noted that sales growth for
apparel and durable goods such as motor vehicles,
electronics, and appliances softened noticeably. Although labor challenges and supply disruptions impacting
the retail sector eased slightly, these pressures remained as major headwinds to productivity.
Real Estate and Construction
Residential real estate activity eased further over the
reporting period. High mortgage rates and overall economic uncertainty cooled demand for existing and new
single-family homes. Conversely, demand for multifamily
housing units remained strong and rental rates grew in
many regions. A Northern California banker reported a
recent increase in financing requests for multifamily
construction projects. Despite cooling demand, housing
prices remained elevated and inventories strained, by
historical standards. Homebuilders’ confidence declined
further as materials shortages continued to delay existing projects.
Activity in the consumer and business services sectors
strengthened. Demand for consumer services, such as
those related to leisure and hospitality, was strong, and
demand for live performances and attractions was robust. While business and group travel activity remained
weak, demand for leisure travel continued to grow. A Las
Vegas contact reported record-breaking tourist spending
in the city in recent months. Demand for health-care,
wellness, and legal services remained at or near capacity.
Activity in the commercial real estate market was mixed.
Demand for industrial and warehouse space remained
robust, while demand for office and retail space weakened in most of the District. One contact in Los Angeles
expected office vacancies to rise when leases are renegotiated as businesses continued to struggle to return
workers to the office. Contacts noted that commercial
real estate permits and construction slowed down in
some areas due to cooling activity.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing production grew moderately during the
reporting period. Sales and new orders were strong
across many industries, and capacity utilization improved
on balance. Demand for capital equipment was notably
strong, as firms in the food, beverage, chemical, personal care, and pharmaceutical industries sought to boost
productivity. Despite some reported improvement, supply
bottlenecks persisted, and input costs remained elevated. Several manufacturers reported accumulating vast
inventories to meet demand amid materials shortages.
Contacts expected supply disruptions and cost pressures to ease in the coming months, although uncertainty related to the war in Ukraine and pandemic developments in China remained high.
Financial Institutions
Lending activity was steady over the reporting period.
Business lending grew, especially for commercial and
industrial loans, and many contacts reported solid loan
pipelines. While demand for credit cards and home
equity loans remained elevated, mortgage originations
and refinancing activity dipped further as higher interest
rates and limited inventories dampened housing activity.
Many contacts mentioned a notable increase in competition for loans and continued ample liquidity. Credit quality remained high, but contacts expected some deterioration going forward on account of increasing interest rates
and moderating deposits. Financiers in the private equity
and venture capital space reported lower valuations as
financial conditions tightened. ■
Agriculture and Resource-Related Industries
Conditions in the agriculture and resource-related sectors were mixed. Drought conditions in many areas
continued to impact the growing season, with some
producers letting portions of their farms go fallow to
L-2
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (2022, September 20). Beige Book. Beige Book, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/beige_book_20220921
@misc{wtfs_beige_book_20220921,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Beige Book},
year = {2022},
month = {Sep},
howpublished = {Beige Book, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/beige_book_20220921},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}