bluebooks · March 31, 1969

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

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A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Content last modified 6/05/2009.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

March 28, 1969.

MONEY MARKET AND RESERVE RELATIONSHIPS

Recent Developments (1)

Since the last meeting of the Committee the cumulating

impact of monetary restraint has been reflected in further increases in long-term interest rates, another rise in the prime loan rate, and a contraction in major deposit and reserve aggregates.

At the same time,

there has been little further upward movement in yields on intermediateterm securities, while Treasury bill yields have declined substantially. In the bill market, the combined pressure of seasonal bill demands, supply scarcities, and the absence of an overt monetary policy move that many in the market had expected brought the 3-month bill rate to below 6 per cent following the mid-month corporate tax payment period.

Most

recently the 3-month bill yield was quoted 5.99 per cent bid, about 16 basis points below its level at the time of the March 4 meeting. (2)

In recent weeks, conditions in the Federal funds market

have tended to be slightly firmer than in the four weeks preceding the March 4 Committee meeting, with the effective rate averaging around 6-3/4 per cent.

In the four weeks ending March 26, net borrowed reserves

have been deepening in a $550 - $750 million range, averaging close to $675 million, compared with $600 million for the previous four weeks. Member bank borrowings have fluctuated in about a $750 million to $950 million range, averaging almost $840 million, about the same as in February.

-2(3)

Estimates of the rate of change in the bank credit

proxy for March, adjusted to include banks' borrowing of Euro-dollars through their foreign branches, have fluctuated around the lower end of the average annual rate of decline of 3 - 6 per cent projected in the last blue book.

The proxy is currently estimated to show a

decline of about 6-1/2 per cent annual rate on average for the month. Not only has the proxy declined a little more than projected, but the components of the adjusted proxy have moved rather differently from earlier anticipations.

The decline in deposits was greater, partly

offset by larger Euro-dollar borrowings.

Within the deposit category,

time deposits have shown more strength than earlier projected, but contrary to projections, there was no net growth in private demand deposits even though U.S. Government deposits declined substantially, on average. (4)

The money supply is now estimated to show only about a

2 per cent annual rate of rise on average from February to March, reflecting growth in currency about in line with other recent months. Business loan expansion in March was considerably weaker than the staff anticipated, and corporations appear to have utilized cash balances more intensively to help finance their tax payments.

Private demand

deposits were also absorbed by very rapid bank sales of the $1 billion bill strip issued in early March. (5)

The average level of outstanding time and savings

deposits showed little change from February to March, in contrast to

-3sizable contractions in the previous two months.

Net inflows of

consumer-type time and savings deposits in March were stronger than anticipated.

Outstanding negotiable CD's, however, continued to

decline roughly in line with projections, with attrition in March estimated at about $1-1/4 billion.

The decline in such CD's since

early December totals about $5-1/2 billion. (6)

The following table summarizes the annual rates of change

for the major reserve and deposit aggregates for 1968 and the JanuaryMarch, 1969, period: Jan. Mar.

Dec. '67June '68

July '68Dec. '68

3.7

9.0

0.8

-0.1

8.1

0.7

Proxy

3.7

12.8

-5.8

Proxy plus Euro-dollars

4.7

13.0

-2.2

Total loans and investments (as of last Wednesday of month)

6.7

14.9

1.2

Money supply

6.1

1.9

Time and savings deposits

5.8

17.1

-6.7

Savings accounts at thrift institutions

6.1

6.3

Total reserves Nonborrowed reserves

'69'69p

Bank credit, as indicated by:

NOTE: Dates are inclusive. p--preliminary. 1/ January and February only.

51/ 5.2-

Prospective developments (7)

The projected relationships among marginal reserve

measures, day-to-day money market rates, bill rates, and bank reserve and credit flows for April have to take account of several special factors:

potential withdrawals by individuals from time and savings

deposits after the end-of-March interest crediting; potential mid-April tax period pressures; and possible downward bill rate movements particularly after the tax period and as further bill redemptions by the Treasury take place.

While uncertainties as to possible outcomes are

great, there are fairly good odds that, under current monetary policy, bill rates will average lower for April as a whole relative to the Federal funds rate than in recent months, and that bank credit growth might resume, though at a slow pace. (8)

Continuation of prevailing conditions in day-to-day money

markets would imply a Federal funds rate around the 6-3/4 per cent average of the past few weeks, and new loan rates to dealers at New York banks at 7 per cent or above.

Member bank borrowings may be in a $750

million - $1 billion range, and net borrowed reserves in a $550 - $800 million range.

Mid-April tax period pressures may entail strong demands

for Federal funds as banks attempt to finance necessitous short-term borrowing by business customers; sales finance companies and Government security dealers are also likely to have increased borrowing needs around this time.

However, demands on the funds market might be less

intense in the latter part of April, and it might prove necessary for

-5the System to maintain upward pressure on the Federal funds rate to keep bill rates from dropping so sharply as to change market assessment of the stance of monetary policy. (9)

Given the above marginal reserve and day-to-day money

rate specifications, the 3-month Treasury bill may fluctuate in a 5.80 6.15 per cent range.

Over the near-term, given the recent build-up

in dealer positions in short-term bills, upward bill rate pressures may be generated by reversal of quarterly bank statement date and Cook County tax period window dressing and by mid-April tax period financing needs.

The upward pressures might not carry rates very far, however,

if market participants begin to focus more sharply on prospects for a diminished supply of bills later in April and over the next two months as the budgetary surplus permits repayment of a substantial amount of Treasury debt.

In the latter part of April, downward pressures on bill

rates could drop the yield on the 3-month bill toward, or below, the bottom of the indicated range, partly as a result of reinvestment demand from maturing April tax bills not used to pay taxes.

On April 30 Treasury

will probably announce the terms of the mid-May refunding, which might also generate prospects of some additional demands for bills.

If the

bill rate nears the bottom end of the range, and particularly if it drops below, downward pressures might cumulate as the market comes to expect a less restrictive monetary policy. (10)

Assuming that the 3-month bill does not drop below the

bottom end of the range--and averages a little below 6 per cent for

-6April as a whole--outstanding CD's at banks may be expected to decline by $600 - $800 million.

This would be a considerably smaller decline

than in previous months, particularly since a reduction of around $300 million would be expected for seasonal reasons. (11)

With CD attrition projected to slow, it is likely that

total time and savings deposits of banks may show little net change on average in April, as in March, compared with about a 10 per cent annual rate of decline over the first two months of the year.

New inflows

of consumer-type time and savings deposits in April are expected to be at a slower rate than in recent weeks.

Individuals are likely to make

larger than seasonal withdrawals following the interest-crediting period to invest in market instruments, and many savers are likely to draw on their balances to finance sizable retroactive tax payments. However, the staff does not expect withdrawals for interest rate reasons

at banks (or thrift institutions) to be significantly worse than in January; long-term market rates are higher than around year-end, but Treasury bill rates are lower than around year-end. (12)

Private demand deposits at banks in April are expected to

show little net change on average, despite a considerable rise in U.S.

-7Government deposits in consequence of payment of the recent $1.8 billion bill strip on the last day of March and of heavy tax inflows in April. A rebound in credit demands on banks in April, partly to finance these tax payments, is expected to sustain private demand deposits. (13)

Given these deposit flows, the bank credit proxy may

increase in a 1 - 4 per cent annual rate range in April.

Demands for

Euro-dollars are expected to continue strong, though perhaps moderating a shade as domestic deposits become somewhat more readily available than in March.

The adjusted bank credit proxy (including Euro-dollars) might

therefore rise in a 2 - 6 per cent annual rate range. (14)

Over all, long-term interest rates are likely to edge

upward, assuming expectations as to peace do not become more favorable or that recent declines in short-term rates do not cumulate.

Mortgage

borrowing demands are expected to continue relatively strong, and the volume of corporate bond offerings may pick up.

And with respect to

State and local governments, banks are still likely to be only marginal net buyers at best.

Policy alternative (15)

The Committee may wish to consider a more restrictive

complex of money market targets, particularly if firming action involving other monetary policy instruments is taken.

An increase in the

discount rate to 6 per cent probably would be taken as a clear signal of a move to reinforce monetary restraint, while a smaller rise would have obvious elements of ambiguity in current market circumstances. A rise to 6 per cent may tend to raise the whole interest rate structure somewhat, although it would appear that prevailing market interest rates have to some extent already discounted some such action. bill rate may move up into a 6-6.30 per cent range.

The 3-month

If the discount

rate were raised shortly after the FOMC meeting, the combination of such an increase, the recent build-up in dealer bill positions, and expected April tax period pressures might press bill rates quickly toward the upper end of the range.

But such rate pressures should

moderate in the latter part of April, for reasons noted earlier. Discount rate action in the latter part of April could, therefore, serve principally to offset downward yield pressures likely to develop at that time rather than to boost the rate structure to new higher levels. (16)

Assuming banks continue relatively reluctant to borrow

from the window, a higher discount rate is likely to be associated with some increase in propensities to sell bills, to borrow Euro-dollars, and to borrow in the Federal funds market.

Given this behavior pattern,

a set of money market targets for open market operations consistent with

maintaining the developing taut credit market conditions (as compared with such conditions absent a discount rate increase) would include a

Federal funds rate around 7 per cent or slightly above, member bank borrowings centering around $1 billion, and net borrowed reserves in a $650-$900 million range. (17)

Under these conditions, and given existing Regulation Q

ceilings, total member bank deposits (without adjustment for Euro-dollars) in April might change in a wide -2 to +2 per cent, annual rate, range, with the actual development depending in part on the timing of a discount rate action (and thus how soon time deposit performance is affected) and on whether a discount rate hike were to be combined with other actions.

The increased demands for Euro-dollars would be likely

to be reflected both in higher interest rates in that market and in somewhat more inflow.

An enlarged inflow might keep the rate of change

in the adjusted bank credit proxy a little above zero. (18)

Consumer-type time deposits might be marginally affected

by higher market rates associated with a discount rate hike and tighter open market operations, but more importantly banks' ability to slow their CD attrition is likely to be curtailed.

A CD run-off continuing at a

rate around $1 billion a month may be expected. (19)

Upward interest rate pressures in long-term markets are

likely to be extended.

Banks may become more convinced that a capital

loss year is in prospect, and thus become more active sellers of longerterm securities.

And the corporate bond market calendar, which has

-10–

been relatively moderate in recent months, might expand as corporations move rapidly to establish claims on financial resources; they might also begin taking down commitments from banks in anticipation of reduced credit availability and perhaps another prime loan rate rise.

The dura-

tion and strength of rises in long-term interest rates will probably depend on how successful the policy moves are in breaking inflationary psychology. (20)

The announcement of an increase in reserve requirements--

say a 1/2 point increase on either demand or time deposits--in conjunction with a discount rate rise would likely have, among other things, a more pronounced effect on expectations.

Interest rates would probably

rise somewhat more, although the odds on the 3-month bill rate moving above the upper end of the range in paragraph (15) are small, given the Federal funds rate specified in paragraph (16).

Bill market pressures

would be modified by the view that a reserve requirement increase would entail less bill sales (or more bill buying) through the open market account.

Moreover, it is likely that marginal portfolio adjustments of

banks to a reserve requirement increase will fall on longer-term securities to a considerable extent since bank liquidity is already substantially reduced.

The impact of monetary restraint would become more

widespread as smaller banks would become less willing holders of State and local and U.S. Government securities, and a larger number of banks are under greater pressure to tighten lending policy.

Bank credit may

-11-

be weaker in April than indicated in paragraph (17), and there may possibly be more of a lingering downward effect on the averages for the succeeding months.

Table A-1 MARGINAL RESERVE MEASURES (Dollar amounts in millions, based on period averages of daily figures) _

Period

__ _ Excess reserves ] As

Member banks borrowines I

revised

Free

date

Monthly (reserves weeks ending in): 1968--February March April May June

_ _

reserves

As first published each week

As expected at conclusion of each week's open

389 337 348 354 341 331 337 346 267 286 444

368 649 689 728 727 523 577 L92 458 541 744

21 -312 -341 -374 -386 -192 -240 -146 -191 -255 -300

224 238 163

715 836 836

-491 -598 -673

479 52 368 420

531 434 575 859

- 52

-382 -207 -439

-114 -443 -274 -525

-203 -446 -256 -369

1969--Jan.

901 202 232 273 188

1,320 498 687 782 891

-419 -296 -455 -509 -703

-488 -365 -542 -572 -758

-473 -349 -533 -610 -779

Feb.

235 221 363 204

744 799 1,044 757

-509 -578 -681 -553

-568 -631 -721 -592

-615 -716 -726 -641

207 200 56 226

734 872 775 963

-527 -672 -719 -737

-577 -666 -719 -737

-625 -608 -725 -754

July

August September October November December 1969--January February p March p

Weekly: 1968--Dec.

Mar.

p - Preliminary

market operations

TABLE A-2 AGGREGATE RESERVES AND RELATED MEASURES (In per cent, Reserve Total Reserves

Retrospective Changes, Seasonally Adjusted annual rates based on monthly averages of daily figures) A

gregates Required reserves Against Nonborrowed Total Demand Reserves Deposits

a r

Monet Bank Deposits Bank De its (credit) /

Variab Time Deposits (comm. banks banks)

1 es Money Supply Private Total Demand Deposits Deposits ____

Annually: 1967 1968

+ 9.9 + 7.2

+11.5

+10.2

+ 7.0

+ 5.2

+ 7.1

+ 6.3

+16.6 +12.5 + 2.2

+16.7 + 9.9 -12.6

+11.4 +11.4

+15.3 +19.2

- 9.4 + 2.2 + 6.6

+ 0.6 - 6.0 - 1.9

+ 0.1

- 8.8 + 4.1

+ 9.6

+12.2

+14.5 +23.3

+ 7.7

+ 0.1

+21.2

+21.8

+ + + +

Monthly: 1968--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

+11.0

1969--Jan. Feb. Mar.

r + 9.7 - 0.6 -6.5

+ 4.9 + 5.0

+23.5 - 1.6 + 9.8 + 5.5

+ 1.3

+12.2 - 2.3 - 1.0

+13.9 -

3.7 7.9

4.8 8.5 8.2 7.3

c +14.5 + 0.2 - 8.9

+11.7 + 8.6

(+11.5) (+ 9.4)

+16.1

+ 6.6 +10.0 + 4.3

(+ 6.5) (+10.8) (+ 4.7)

-11.1

- 4.7

+ 1.5

+ 7.7

+ 1.7 + 6.5 + 9.0 +21.4 + 8.4 +12.5 +11.1 +12.7

(+ 5.1) (+ 9.3) (+10.1) (+22.1) (+ 9.4) (+11.8) (+11.3) (+11.6)

+ + + + + +

+10.8 +17.3 -17.5

4.9 1.2 9.8

(- 2.0) (+ 2.0) (- 6.7)

3.5

+ 4.1 + 6.0

3.8)

+11.3

3.9 7.2 9.7 2.6 3.2 3.8

+ 6.4 + 6.5

+ 6.7 + 6.2

+ + + +

6.6 2.6 4.6 5.9

6.8 1.7 2.5 6.8

+11.7

+12.6

+ 8.4

+ 7.5

+14.0 +21.4 +17.3 +17.7 +14.4 +14.3

+12.8 + 5.7

+14.9

-10.6

+ 3.1

+ 0.6 + 1.9

8.9 0.6

- 5.0 + 4.4

+10.7 + 7.5

+ 3.3 - 7.3

+ 5.7 +10.6 + 7.3 + 4.0 -1.6

Includes all deposits subject to reserve requirements. Movements in this aggregate correspond closely with movements in total member bank credit.on a daily average basis. Figures in parenthesis include Euro-dollar borrowings.

p -

Preliminary.

r -

revised.

Chart 1

MEMBER BANK RESERVES MONTHLY AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

I-

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

28.5

28.0

27.5

27.0

26.5

26.0

25.5

25.0

24.5

24.0

23.5

S 1967

J 1968

M 1969

Chart 2

MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS AND LIABILITIES TO OVERSEAS BRANCHES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS (CREDIT PROXY] SEAS ADJ WEEKLY AVERAGE OF DAILY FIGURES 294

290

286

282

278

274

270

266

262

258

254 8

LIABILITIES TO OVERSEAS BRANCHES (WEEKLY REPORTING BANKS) NOT SEAS ADJ, WEDNESDAYS 6

2 S 1967

J 1968

M 1969

Chart 3

MONEY SUPPLY AND BANK DEPOSITS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED WEEKLY

AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

190

MONEY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

SUPPLY

186

182

204

178

200

174

------

170

196

192

-------

188 TIME DEPOSITS ADJUSTED (All Commercial Banks) 184

------

180

176

172

NEGOTIABLE CD'S NOT SEAS ADJ, WEDNESDAYS

168

16 S

J 1967

1968

1969

Chart 4

DEMAND DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED WEEKLY AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 48

MONEY SUPPLY COMPONENTS: 44

CURRENCY

OUTSIDE BANKS

DEMAND DEPOSITS _

146

142

138

134

130

U.S. GOVT. DEMAND DEPOSITS (Member

SS A

S 1967

Banks)

1968

1969

Table B-1 MAJOR SOURCES AND USES OF RESERVES Retrospective and Prospective (Dollar amounts in millions, based on weekly averages of daily figures) Factors affecting supply of reserves Period Year: 1967 (12/28/66 58 (12/27/67

12/27/67) 12/25/68) 5/

Year-to-date: (12/27/67 - 3/27/68) (12/25/68 - 3/26/69) Weekly: 1969--Feb.

Mar.

Federal Reserve credit (excl.

Gold l

float) I/

stock

+4,718 +3,757

+ -

-1,950

909 36

725

-2,067

Currency outside banks

-2,305 -3,221 +1,122 +1,016

Change

Technical factors net 2/ -

165

+3,039 -

in total

= Bank use of reserves Required Excess es reserves 3/

reserves

+1,522 +1,508

443

reserves

+1,517 +1,563 -

-1,627

361 647

80 453

+ -

5 55

281 194

12 19 26

69 242 631 638

122 189 462 195

55 230 164 50

+ -

135 177 331 492

+ -

182 163 189 333

47 14 142 159

5 12 p 19 p 26 p

120 31 47 70

167 227 424 84

161 64 336 253

114 261 40 99

+ -

117 254 104 269

3 7 144 170

I ________________

PROJECTED4 125 140 260 205 235

1969--Apr.

_____________________________ L

35 230 10 100 460

80 95 250 385 400

80 5 20 80 295

+ + + +

________UL

For retrospective details, see Table B-4. For factors included, see Table B-3. For required reserves by type of deposits, see Table B-2. See reverse side for explanation. Includes increase in reserve requirements of $360 million effective Jan. 18, 1968.

p -

Preliminary.

Jan. 11, 1968 and $190 million effective

Table B-2 CHANGES IN REQUIRED RESERVE COMPONENTS Retrospective and Prospective Seasonal and Nonseasonal Changes (Dollar amounts in millions, based on weekly averages of daily figures) iod

Period

Total rqui required reserves reses

Supporting private deposits

Supporting U. S. Gov't. demand demand deposits

Total Total

Other than seasonal seasonal chanes changes Demand Time

Seasonal changes Demand

Time

>ar:

967 (12/28/66 1968 (12/27/67

- 12/27/67)

/ +1,517

261

+1,256

+1,023

168

/ +1,563

558

+2,121

382

+1,647

831

12/25/68)

Year-to-date: -

80 453

25 131

55 584

528 514

+ +

239 126

+ +

264 65

30 261

5 12

182 163

+ +

258 324

440 487

289 307

+ +

19 18

128 160

42 38

19 26

+ -

189 333

+ -

73 46

+ -

116 287

96 252

+ +

13 13

+ -

233 33

34 15

5 12 p 19 p 26 p

+ -

117 254 104 269

58 29 184 143

+ -

59 225 288 126

240 258 320 48

+ + + -

6 6 7 7

+ + -

187 35 22 174

12 8 17 4

2 9 16

+ + -

80 5 20

+ + -

40 210 195

+ +

40 205 175

+ +

65 255 145

10 60 40

10 10

+ +

180

260

195

295

330

(12/27/67 - 3/27/68) (12/25/68 - 3/26/69)

Weekly: 1969--Feb.

Mar.

PROJECTED 1969--Apr.

Reflects reserve requirement changes in March 1967 and January 1968.

p - Preliminary.

Table B-3 TECHNICAL FACTORS AFFECTING RESERVES Retrospective and Prospective Changes (Dollar amounts in millions, based on weekly averages of daily figures) Technical factors (net)

Period

Treasury operations

Float

Foreign deposits and gold loans

ACTUAL -

12/27/67) 12/25/68)

F. R. accounts

(Sign indicates effect on reserves)

Year: 1967 (12/28/66 1968 (12/27/67

Other nonmember deposits and

165

+3,039

85 928

+ -

158 112

389

+1,309

6 -

Year-to-date: (12/27/67 (12/25/68

- 3/27/68) - 3/26/69)

Weekly: 1969--Feb.

443

-1,627

Mar.

854

-1,452

- 4 + 5:

223 335 161 112

10 68 21 38

36 97 20 116

128 158 134 234

150 115

250 115 100 325 400

+ -

293 115

PROJECTED 1969--Apr.

p - Preliminary.

80 95 250 385 400

5 135 150 60

Table B-4 SOURCE OF FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT Retrospective Changes (Dollar amounts in millions of dollars, based on weekly averages of daily figures) t

Total Federal Reserve credit (Excl. float) I,

Period

Year: 1967 (12/28/66 1968 (12/27/67 -

12/27/67) 12/25/68)

Year-to-date: (12/27/67 - 3/27/68) (19/25/68 - 3/26/69)

U.S. government securities Repurchase Total Bills Other agreements 1holdings Itt

Federal Agency Securities

+4,433 +2,143

+1,153 +1,176

455 519

317 252

106

166 54 172

+ +

+4,718 +3,757

+5,009 +3,298

909

691

161

+1,230

+ +

742 344

+ +

576 398

347 480 503

175 480 503

77 146 306

577 21

Bankers'

acceptances

19 3

69 52

7 10

12 11

Member banks borrowings

203

514 237 104

Weekly:

1969--Jan.

8 15 22 29

Feb.

Mar.

5 12 19 26 5 12 p 19 p 26 p

470 205 389 396

+ +

242 631

+ + +

638

292

120

63 87

+ + +

31 47 70

+ -

105 109

55 69 69 89 123 109

8 146 251 308

74 82 11

6 72 146 11

+ ++

461

822

189

109

147 55

245

287

138

188

Chart Reference Table C-1 TOTAL, NONBORROWED AND REQUIRED RESERVES

Seasonally Adjusted (Dollar amounts in millions, based on monthly averages of daily figures)

Period

Total S reserves

Nonborrowed reserves

Total

equredreserve Aainst private deposits Demand

__Total

23,293 23,029 23 065 22 954 22 915 22,895

22,552 22,336 22,319 22,243 22,303 22,286

22,864

1967--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

23,217 23,471 23 869 23 910 23,952 24,105 24.342 24.627 24,786 25,121 25,275 25,153

22,770 23,107 23,668 23,775 23,874 23,982 24,279 24,586 24,721 25,020 25,142 24,848

22,875 23,134 23,383 23,529 23,531 23,660 23,960 24,234 24,476 24,810 24,947 24,914

1968--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

25,500 25 765 25,812

25,193 25,401 25,135 24,938 24,984 25,121 25,425

25,151 25,389 25,402 25,276 25,236 25,438

26,431 26 395 26,610 26.732 26.976

25,918 25,947

26,211 26,160 26,139

26,053 26,158 26,344 26,524 26,686

25,340 25,294 25,528

25,749 26,050

18,025 18,082 18,133 18,387 18,550 18,727 18,765 18,621 18,746 18,883 19,088

r 27,193 27,180 27,032

r 26,441 26,359 26,186

r 27,009 27,013 26,813

25,921 25,911 25,843

19,066 19,150 19,102

1966--July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.

Dec.

1969--Jan. Feb. p Mar. p

25,623

25.711 25 816 25,923

p - Preliminary.

- Revised.

22,687 22,712 22,629 22,593 22,600

25,601

22,344 22,320 22,349 22,229 22,198 22,262

16,963 16,908 16,922 16,827 16,810 16,825

22,298 22,559 22,785 22,779 23,071

16,774 16.959 17,101 17,015 17,244 17,472 17,582 17,701 17,704 17,805 17,879 17,860

23,387

23,578 23,776 23,850 23,995 24,122 24,157 24,270 24,333 24,431 24,487 24,751 24,925 25,188

17,974

Table C-2 DEPOSITS SUPPORTED BY REQUIRED RESERVES AT ALL MEMBER BANKS Seasonally Adjusted

(Dollar amounts in billions,based on monthly averages of daily figures)

Period

Total member bank deposits (credit 1/) __________

Time deposits

Private demand deposits eois22/

______

U.S. Gov't. demand deposits

1966--July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

245.8 245.6 245.5 244.4 244.0 244.6

128.1 128.8 129.2 128.6 128.3 129.4

112.6 112.3 112.4 111.7 111.6 111.7

5.1 4.5

1967--Jan.

247.7 251.0 254.0

111.4 112.6 113.6 113.0 114.5 116.0 116.7 117.5 117.6 118.2 118.7 118.6

4.8 5.1 5.1 5.6 4.0 2.6 2.9 4.0 4.5 5.2 5.6 4.6

4.0 4.0 4.1

3.5

May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

262.4 266.1 268.4 270.8 272.9 273.2

131.5 133.3 135.3 137.2 138.7 140.8 142.8 144.6 146.3 147.4 148.6 149.9

1968--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

274.7 277.0 278.0 276.9 277.3 278.8 280.9 285.9 287.9 290.9 293.6 296.7

149.9 150.2 151.2 151.3 151.5 151.8 153.8 156.5 158.9 161.5 163.5 165.8

119.4 119.7 120.1 120.4 122.1 123.2 124.3 124.6 123.6 124.5 125.4 126.7

5.4 7.1 6.7 5.2 3.7 3.9 2.7 4.8 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.2

1969--Jan. Feb. Mar. p

295.1 294.8 292.4

163.2 161.0 160.5

126.6 127.2 126.8

5.3 6.7 5.0

Feb. Mar. Apr.

255.8 257.2 259.5

Includes all deposits subject to reserve requirements--i.e., the total of time, private demand,and U.S. Government demand deposits. Movements in this aggregate correspond closely with movements in total member bank credit. Private demand deposits include demand deposits of individuals, partnerships and corporations and net interbank balances.

p - Preliminary.

TABLE C-2a DEPOSITS SUPPORTED BY REQUIRED RESERVES AT ALL MEMBER BANKS Seasonally adjusted (Dollar amounts in billions, based on weekly averages of daily figures)

Week ending:

Total member bank deposits (credit) /

Time deposits

Private demand deposits 2/

U. S. Gov't. demand deposits

4 11 18 25

286.7 287.0 287.8 288.8

157.9 158.3 158.9 159.4

124.7 124.1 123.5 123.4

4.1 4.6 5.4 6.0

Oct.

2 9 16 23 30

290.3 290.4 289.9 289.5 292.7

160.1 160.8 161.1 161.9 162.2

124.0 123.9 125.1 123.7 124.3

6.2 5.7 3.7 3.9 6.2

Nov.

6 13 20 27

293.9 293.6 292.9 294.1

162.6 163.0 163.6 164.7

125.5 124.2 125.9 126.1

5.8 6.3 3.4 3.4

Dec.

4 11 18 25

294.8 296.4 296.9 296.7

165.3 165.9 166.1 166.1

126.3 126.3 126.4 126.9

3.2 4.2 4.4 3.7

1969--Jan.

1 8 15 22 29

297.4 297.2 294.9 294.4 293.8

165.5 164.4 163.9 162.8 162.1

127.9 128.2 126.7 126.0 124.9

4.0 4.5 4.3 5.6 6.8

Feb.

5 12 19 26

294.1 295.5 295.3 294.4

161.4 161.1 160.8 160.6

126.2 126.3 127.7 128.1

6.5 8.0 6.8 5.8

Mar.

5 12 19 26

293.6 293.8 292.1 291.2

160.4 160.6 160.5 160.6

127.6 126.7 126.6 126.7

5.6 6.5 5.1 3.9

1968--Sept.

p - Preliminary. 1/ Includes all deposits subject to reserve requirements--i.e., the total of time, private demand, and U.S. Government demand deposits. Movements in this aggregate correspond closely with movements in total member bank credit. 2/ Private demand deposits include demand deposits on individuals, partner-

ships and corporations and net interbank balances.

TABLE C-3 MONEY SUPPLY AND TIME DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Seasonally adjusted (Dollar amounts in billions, based on monthly averages of daily figures)

Monthly

Money Supply

Currency 1/

Private Demand Deposits

Time Deposits

Adjusted

1967--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

170.3 171.8 173.2 172.5 174.4 176.0 177.8 178.9 179.1 180.2 181.0 181.3

38.5 38.7 38.9 39.0 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.5 39.7 39.9 40.1 40.4

131.8 133.0 134.3 133.5 135.3 136.7 138.4 139.4 139.4 140.2 141.0 140.9

161.0 163.5 165.9 168.1 170.1 172.6 174.8 177.2 179.4 180.6 182.0 183.5

1968--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

182.3 182.7 183.4 184.3 186.1 187.4 189.4 190.3 189.5 190.2 191.9 193.1

40.6 40.7 41.1 41.4 41.6 42.0 42.2 42.6 42.7 42.8 43.2 43.4

141.7 141.9 142.) 143.0 144.5 145.4 147.2 147.6 146.7 147.4 148.7 149.6

184.1 185.2 186.7 187.1 187.6 188.2 190.4 193.8 196.6 199.5 201.9 204.3

1969--Jan. Feb. Mar. p

193.6 193.7 194.0

43.6 43.9 44.2

150.1 149.9 149.9

202.5 201.0 200.9

1/ 2/

Includes currency outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the vaults of all commercial banks. Includes (1) demand deposits at all commercial banks, other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government, less cash items in process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (2) foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve Banks.

p - Preliminary.

TBLE C-3a MONEY SUPPLY AN

TIME DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Seasonally Adjusted

(Dollar amounts in billions, based on monthly averages of daily figures)

Private

Money Supply

Week Ending 1968- -Sept.

Currency

P/ Demand Deposits

Time Deposits

adjusted

4 11 18 25

190.3 190.2 188.7 188.5

42.7 42.6 42.7 42.6

147.5 147.5 146.0 145.9

195.2 195.8 196.6 197.2

Oct.

2 9 16 23 30

190.0 189.9 191.0 189.4 189.9

42.7 42.9 42.8 42.8 42.9

147.3 147.0 148.1 146.5 147.0

198.1 198.7 199.1 200.0 200.4

Nov.

6 13 20 27

191.9 190.6 192.2 193.3

42.9 43.2 43.2 43.4

149.0 147.3 149.0 149.9

200.8 201.4 201.7 202.9

Dec.

4 11 18 25

192.9 193.1 192.7 192.7

43.5 43.5 43.4 43.4

149.4 149.6 149.2 149.3

203.7 204.1 204.5 204.6

1969-- -Jan.

1 8 15 22 29

193.7 195.4 193.8 193.6 191.6

43.4 43.5 43.5 43.6 43.5

150.3 151.9 150.2 150.0 148.1

204.1 203.3 202.8 202.1 201.5

Feb.

5 12 19 26

192.8 192.9 194.8 194.3

43.7 43.9 44.0 43.8

149.1 149.0 150.9 150.5

201.0 201.0 201.0 200.9

Mar.

5 12 19 26

193.8 193.6 194.0 194.6

43.8 44.1 44.2 44.3

150.0 149.6 149.9 150.3

200.7 201.0 200.7 200.8

1/ 2/

p -

Includes currency outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the vaults of all commercial banks. Includes (1) demand deposits at all commercial banks, other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government, less cash items in process of collection and Federal Reserve float: and (2) foreign demand balances of Federal Reserve Banks. Preliminary.

FINANCIAL MARKET RELATIONSHIPS

IN PERSPECTIVE

(Monthlv averages and, where available, weekly averages of daily figures) Money arket Indicators Bond Yields Flow of Reserves. Bank Credit Bank M Corporate MuniciNonTotal BorrowFederal 3-month Free Money eserves ings Funds TreasU.S. New pal borrowed ReCredit Supply u y (In millions Rate ury Gov't. Issues (Aaa) Reserves serves Proxy of dollars) 4/ Bill (20 yr) (Aaa)/ (In n billions of (In billions of of dollar"s (Seasonally Adjusted)

Period Period

'68--Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1969--Jan. Feb. p Mar. p

and Money Time Depsi Deposits 2 doars) dollars)

-312 -341 -374 -386 -192 -240 -146 -192 -255 -327 -491 -598 -673

649 689 728 727 523 577 492 458 541 743 715 836 836

5.05 5.76 6.12 6.07 6.02 6.03 5.78 5.92 5.81 6.02 6.30 6.64 n.a.

5.17 5.38 5.66 5.52 5.31 5.23 5.19 5.35 5.45 5.96 6.14 6.12 n.a.

5.59 5.46 5.55 5.40 5.29 5.22 5.28 5.44 5.56 5.88 5.99 6.11 n.a.

6.57k 6.50* 6.64 6.65 6.50* 6.16 6.27 6.47 6.57 6.79 6.92 6.92* 7.38

4.28 4.13 4.28 4.26 4.12 4.00 4.23 4.21 4.33 4.50 4.58 4.74 4.97

-582

758

6.43

6.06

6.14

6.93

4.80

- 0.9

- 0.5

- 0.1

5 12 p 19 p 26 p

-567 -672 -719 -736

734 872 775 963

6.75 6.75 6.82 6.88

6.16 6.03 6.02 5.94

6.16 6.20 6.29 6.22

-7.23 7.57 7.46

4.90 4.92 5.02 5.02

+ -

0.5 - 0.2 + 0.4 + 0.6

+ +

Year 1968 First Half 1968 Second Half 1968

-210 -201 -218

548 567 529

5.58 5.39 5.77

Ave 5.36 5.29 5.42

ges 5.45 5.46 5.44

6.47 6.47 b.50

4.20 4.16 4.22

Recent variation in growth 11/29/67-7/3/68' 7/3/68-12/18/68 12/18/68-3/26/69

-159 -203 -562

515 516

5.25 5.90 6.54

5.24 5.34 6.11

6.47 6.47 7.04*

4.15 4.21 4.72

1969--Feb. Mar.

P38

5.48 5.40 6.09

-266 -197 + 46 +137 +304 +493 + 29 +264 - 51 - 21 +302 - 82 -173

- 47 -189 + 88 +105 +107 +508 - 36 +215 +122 +244 +217 - 13 -148

+ + + + + + + + + -

1.0 1.1 0.4 1.5 2.1 5.0 2.0 3.0 2.7 3.1 1.5** 0.3 2.4

0.8 0.2 1.7 0.9

+ + + + + + + + + + + +

Annual rates of increase + 7.2 + 8.6 + + 5.2 + 4.1 + + 5.3 + 2.2 + +12.8 + 8.1 + 9.0

+ 3.5 +14.1 - 6.6

0.7 0.9 1.8 1.3 2.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.5

+ + + + + + + + + + -

1.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 2.2 3.4 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.4 1.8 1.6

0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1

3/ 6.5 6.7 6.1

+11.3 + 5.1 +17.1

+ 8.0 + 3.4 + 3.7

+ 5.2 +18.1 - 6.7

* - issues carry a 10-year call protection. Includes issues carrying 5-year and 10-year call protection, Time deposits adjusted at all commercial banks. Base is change for month preceding specified period or in case of weekly periods, the first week shown. Average of total number of days in period. p - Preliminary. n.a. - Not available. - Reflects $400 million reduction in member bank deposits resulting from withdrawal of a large country bank from System membership. Percentage annual rates are adjusted to eliminate this break in series. March 28, 1969.

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1969, March 31). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19690401

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19690401,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1969},
  month = {Mar},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19690401},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}