bluebooks · June 23, 1969

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

June 20, 1969.

MONEY MARKET AND RESERVE RELATIONSHIPS Recent developments (1)

Short-term and most long-term interest rates moved

markedly higher after the last meeting of the Committee, as bank liquidity was further eroded, the prime loan rate at major banks was raised to 8-1/2 per cent, and short-term markets adjusted to expected tax date loan demands.

The bill market was also affected by German

official sales of Treasury bills reflecting in large part diversion of funds out of marks into the Euro-dollar market.

Treasury bill rates

are now generally 40-70 basis points higher than at the time of the last Committee meeting.

The 3-month bill rate was most recently

quoted a little over 6.50 per cent, as compared with a pre-tax date peak of 6.81 per cent and 6.14 per cent at the time of the last meeting. In contrast to the bill market, yields on long-term U.S. Government securities are currently slightly below their end-of-May levels, despite a fairly sharp upward movement at the time of the prime rate hike. Yields in other bond markets, however, have advanced by 20 - 30 basis points. (2)

Interest rates in the market for day-to-day money

tightened in the first two statement weeks of June, and moderated from these advanced levels in the subsequent week.

Trading in Federal

funds frequently occurred at rates of 9-1/2 per cent or higher in the

FINANCIAL MARKET RELATIONSHIPS IN PERSPECTIVE (Monthly averages and where available, weekly averages of daily figures)

Period

Free Free Borrowings Reserves (In millions of dollars for weeks ending in)

1968--May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Dec. 1969--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May p 1969--ay

June

__ _

374 386 192

240 146 192 255 327

491 580

635 844

-1.116 -1,120

7 14 21 28 4 11 18

910

-1,242 -1,190 -1,186 -

872

-1,271 _

3-month Treasury Bill

.1_

203 757

Nonborrowed Reserves

Total Reserves

(In millions of dollars) of dollars)_

Bank

Credit Proxy

5.55 5.40 5.29 5.22 5.28 5.44 5.56 5.88

6.64 6.65 6.51* 6.15 6.27 6.47 r 6.61 6.79

4.28 r 4.21 4.12 4.00 4.23 4.21 4.33 4.50

+ + + + + + + +

715 836 837 1,031 1,359 1,603 1,171 1,358 1,303 1,522 1,260 1,316

6.30 6.64 6.79 7.41 8.67 8.23 8.30 8.91 8.93 9.20 9.13 8.54

6.14 6.12 6.02 6.11 6.04 5.97 6.02 6.10 6.07 6.16 6.50 6.65

5.99 6.11 6.22 6.03 6.11 5.94 5.97 6.10 6.35 6.40 6.32 6.22

6.92 6.91* r 7.37 r 7.17 7.22 7.10 7.08 7.28 7.44 7.52 7.75 7.71

4.58 4.74 4.97 r 5.00 5.19 4.95 5.10 5.30 5.40 5.55 5.60 5.60

- 1.5** - 0.3 - 2.5 + 1.3 - 0.6 + 0.3 + 1.9 - 1.4 -0.6 - 1.4 + 0.1 - 0.9

516 1,016

Average of total number of days in period.

Money Supply

Time Deposits 3/

0.4 1.5 2.1 5.0 2.0 3.0 2.7 3.1

+ + + + + + +

1.8 1.3 2.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.7 1.2

+ + + + + + + +

+ 0.6 + 0.1 + 0.2 + 1.7 - 0.4 + 0.6 + 1.1 + 1.8 - .1 -0.9 + 0.7 + 0.6

0.5 0.6 2.2 3.4 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.4

- 1.8 - 1.5 -0.2 - 0.7 - 0.1 + -

0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.5

5.58 5.39 5.77

Aver; 5.36 5.29 5.42

5.45 5.46 5.44

6.47 6.47 6.50

4.20 4.16 4.22

+ 5.6 + 1.1 + 9.9

5.90 7.29

5.34 6.14

5.40 6.11

6.47 7.08

4.21 4.81

onv5

Monev- S -A ..

(In billions of dollars)

5.66 5.52 5.31 5.23 5.19 5.35 5.45 5.96

Municipal (Aaa)

6.12 6.07 6.02 6.03 5.78 5.92 5.81 6.02

Recent variation in growth -

New Issues (Aaa) 2/ -

728 727 523 577 492 458 541 743

Year 1968 First Half 1968 Second Half 1968

7/3/68 - 12/18/68 12/18/68 - 6/18/69

Corporate

U.S.

Government (20 yr.) Ii I

Nov.

Federal Funds Rate 1/

or Reeres sakCrdtan Flo Flow of Reserves- Rank Credit and

Yields Bond Bn Yields

Indicators Market Money ..... Make Indicators

________________

Annual rates of increase + + 8.6 + 7.1 + + 4.1 + 4.2 + +12.8 + 9.8

Includes issues carrying 5-year and 10-year call protection, * -

3/ 4/

Time deposits adjusted at all commercial banks. Base is change for month preceding specified period or in case of weekly periods,

+11.3 + 5.1 +17.1

9.9

+11.8

+14.1

+ 2.3

+18.1

6.9

- 2.6

- 4.2

+ 3.6

- 5.1

Sreliminary.

S.A.

c------ --

the first week shown.

Seasonally

issues carry a 10-year call protection.

4/ 6.5 6.7 6.1

June 20, 1969

, -- - -c-1

auJustu.

-2first two statement weeks, with the average rate for the period a little above 9-1/8 per cent.

Loan demand on banks burgeoned in the

weeks immediately prior to the tax date, partly in anticipation of the prime loan rate increase, and major banks financed their needs partly in the Federal funds market.

Banks also were financing their needs

to a surprisingly large extent through the Euro-dollar market.

the tax payment week itself, the Federal funds rate dropped to 8-1/2 per cent, on average, as borrowings from banks on the tax date proved to be weaker than many banks had prepared for and as the build-up in Euro-dollars continued.

Over the three statement weeks ending June 18

the increase in Euro-dollar borrowings amounted to over $3 billion. During this same period banks' use of the discount window averaged $1.4 billion, little changed from May, with a somewhat larger share of the borrowings subject to administrative pressure.

Net borrowed

reserves averaged $1.1 billion, also about unchanged from the month before. (3)

While Euro-dollar borrowings have been increasing, total

member bank deposits have declined steadily since mid-May, both absolutely and relative to projections.

The sharp decrease in member bank deposits

reflects an increased rate of decline in total time and savings deposits, as the performance of CD's and other time and savings deposits weakened at the higher interest rate levels that developed.

Private demand

deposits have also shown less strength than earlier anticipated, even

-3though U.S. Government deposits have fallen off more than we expected.In general, the weaker than projected private deposit performance may have reflected increased bank efforts to sell securities or restrict loans as their reserve base contracted.

While direct evidence is

lacking, it is also possible that the weakness in private deposits

reflects at least in part outflows of funds from the U.S. to the Eurodollar market. (4) The following table provides comparative rates of change for major reserve and deposit aggregates for recent periods. July '68Dec. '68

Jan. '69Mar. '69

April May '69

Total reserves

9.8

-1.3

4.9

Nnnhnrrowed r~aeserv

9.9

-5.0

-3.9

Bank credit, as indicated by: Proxy

12.8

-5.4

1.4

Proxy plus Euro-dollars

13.0

-2.4

2.0

Total loans and investments (as of last Wednesday of month)

15.0

2.3

6.2

6.1

1.9

4.0

17.1

-6.5

Money supply Time and savings deposits Savings accounts at thrift institutions

NOTE:

6.4

6.1

-2.7

3.7

Dates are inclusive.

The recent sharp increase in Euro-dollar borrowings has apparently generated a large increase in cash items in process of collection. This has led to some understatement of the June money supply growth. Any subsequent curtailment of the contribution of overnight Euro-dollars to cash items later would lead to an overstatement of money supply growth.

Prospective developments (5)

Now that the June tax period has been weathered, two

other tests for financial markets appear imminent.

One would be in

connection with possible withdrawals of Euro-dollar supplies partly as a result of window dressing operations by foreign banks and perhaps U.S. corporations, in a period of large deposit shifts among banks and of increased reserve needs to meet lagged requirements from seasonal deposit expansion around mid-June.

The other, and probably more

important one, related to consequences of the mid-year interest-crediting period at banks and nonbank savings institutions.

Withdrawals of domestic

savings from these institutions, should they develop in size, would tend to focus pressure on mortgage and municipal markets, and on short-term credit markets generally to the extent that thrift instititions and Federal Home Loan Banks draw on liquid assets to support mortgage commitments.

Nonetheless, pressures on the market for day-to-day money

may not be quite as great as in early June because business and finance company loan demands on banks should be more moderate, reflecting the passage of peak corporate financing pressures and possibly also the cutback of new bank loan commitment activity that has probably occurred over recent weeks. (6)

Given the shifting locus of market pressures, a generally

unchanged set of money market conditions over the next three weeks may include a Federal funds rate fluctuating around 8-1/2 per cent, member bank borrowings in a $1 - $1-1/2 billion range, and net borrowed reserves averaging a little over $1 billion, as specified in the previous Blue Book.

The 3-month bill rate may fluctuate widely, perhaps

in a range as wide as, or wider than, 6-1/4 - 6-3/4 per cent.

-5(7)

Downward bill rate pressures may be strongest in the

last week of June and the first few days of July, when funds received from cash redemptions of June tax bills are reinvested and as the System supplies reserves to accommodate the mid-June seasonal increase in deposits and the July 4 holiday currency outflow.

But at prevailing

financing costs, dealers are not likely to alter their aversion to holding sizable Treasury bill positions.

As a result, bill rates

could begin to move upward once the reinvestment demand from tax bill redemptions and System buying passes and as marketing of bills from other sources increases as July goes on.

It would appear that savings and loan

associations and Federal Home Loan Banks may have to liquidate a sizable amount--perhaps around $1 billion--of short-term assets in adjusting to expected sizable net savings outflows in early July.

Moreover, the

Treasury is likely to announce a tax bill offering of $3 - $4 billion around mid-July for payment later in the month. (8)

Assuming the bill rate averages around 6-1/2 per cent,

or a little below, CD attrition in June should come to around $1-3/4 billion, and could amount to an additional $1-1/4 billion in July. The run-off in the latter month should be smaller relative to June because of the somewhat lower estimated volume of CD maturities.

After

allowing for the normal seasonal decline in June and rebuilding in July, however, attrition in the two months would not be materially different.

(9) Time deposits other than CD's have recovered sluggishly from their April declines.

Experience thus far in June is considerably

-6weaker than in March, the month just prior to the previous interestcrediting period.

And another net decline in these deposits is ex-

pected after mid-year--probably greater than in April given the advanced level of market interest rates.

Thus, total time and savings deposits,

assuming no change in Regulation Q ceilings, may decline at about a 3 - 5 per cent annual rage in June, and the drop-off in July is likely to be even sharper--perhaps at a 7 - 10 per cent annual rate. (10)

The June money supply increase may be in a 4 - 6 per

cent annual rate range, which would be below the projection in the last blue book.

However, we are currently projecting a sizable money supply

expansion on average from June to July--in a 7 - 10 per cent range--as

U.S. Government deposits drop sharply despite the expected bill financing late in the month.

The increase in private demand deposits in the two

months together is estimated at only about one-half of the almost $4 billion decline expected in U.S. Government deposits.

Moreover,

much of the expected increase in money supply reflects short-run shifts out of Government deposits and would appear to be transitory, in view of the attractiveness of market securities at current interest rate levels. (11)

Given the expected weakness in both time and Government

and private demand deposits together, total member bank deposits are projected to drop by an 11 -13 per cent, annual rate, in June and by a

further 8 - 11 per cent in July.

Under these conditions, banks are

–7likely to demand additional Euro-dollars, although not as aggressively as in June if loan demands on banks moderate.

The sharp run-up of Euro-

dollars held by banks in June adds 8 - 10 percentage points to the proxy.

In July, about 5 - 7 percentage points may be added, assuming

growth of around $1 billion, or less, in the course of July.

On balance,

we are projecting declines in the proxy adjusted for Euro-dollars at annual rates of 2 - 4 per cent in June and 3 - 5 per cent in July. (12)

An estimated $3 billion of new-type financing arrange-

ments by banks or their affiliates were outstanding as of June 11, according to preliminary reports.

These financing arrangements

outstanding rose by $770 million from their May 28 level, but it is not clear what proportion of these funds should be considered "bank credit" in light of the similarity of various of the instruments to conventional commercial or finance company paper.

A continued increase in such in-

struments in July, assuming their regulatory status is unchanged, may limit the extent to which banks are forced to liquidate assets or ration loans.

But resort to these devices would still be a source of upward

interest rate pressures, making it more difficult for other short-term borrowers to raise funds.

For instance, the 4 - 6 month commercial paper

rate rose from 7-5/8 per cent at the end of May to 8-3/8 per cent most recently, and the spread of this rate above the 6-month bill widened from 115 to 165 basis points. (13)

With bank deposits and reserves declining sharply in June

and July, upward interest pressures in both long- and short-term markets are likely to continue.

A substantial moderation in over-all credit

demands or more of a shift away from inflationary expectations--perhaps accompanied by further stock market declines--could reverse these tendencies, particularly in longer-term markets.

1 MEMBER BANK RESERVES Chart

MONTHLY AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES I I I I I I I BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTIED

28.5i

28.0

27.5

TOTAL RESERVES 27.0

26.5

26.0

25.3

NONBORROWED RESERVES

#4I REQUIRED RESERVES 24.5

24.0

23.5

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1.0

MEMBER BANK BORROWINGS

S 1967

1968

sog

M 1969

Chart 2

MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS AND LIABILITIES TO OVERSEAS BRANCHES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I

1 I

TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS (CREDIT PROXY) SEAS

ADJ. WEEKLY AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

302

298

294

290

286

2B2

278

274

270

LIABILITIES TO OVERSEAS BRANCHES (WEEKLY REPORTING BANKS) 12

-NOT

SEAS. ADJ.,

--------------------------------------------

J 1968

J 1969

Chart 3

MONEY SUPPLY AND BANK DEPOSITS SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED WEEKLY AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

BI I OF DO BILLIONS DOLLARS

---TIME DEPOSITS ADJUSTED (All Commercial Banks)

204

NEGOTIABLE CD'S NOT SEAS. ADJ., WEDNESDAYS

16 M

1968

1969

200

Chart 4

DEMAND DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED WEEKLY AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

SUPPLY COI

-MONEY

U.S. GOVT. DEMAND DEPOSITS (Member

1968

Banks)

1969

Table 1 MARGINAL RESERVE MEASURES (Dollar amounts in millions, based on period averages of daily figures) Member Free reserves

Perd Period

Excess reserves

Total

Banks Borrowings C i t R e e r v e Major banks Ot 8 N.Y. Outside N.Y.

Country

Monthly (reserves weeks ending in): 1968--April May June July August September October November December

- 341 - 374 - 386 - 192 - 240 - -146 - 192 - 255 - 270

348 354 341 331 337 346 267 286 330

689 728 727 523 577 492 458 541 600

56 65 72 13 195 125 81 65 134

262 155 168 140 65 158 88 171 223

148 186 141 102 101 73 117 93 66

223 322 346 268 215 136 172 212 177

1969--January February March April May

- 477 - 580 - 635 - 844 -1,116

359 256 202 187 243

836 836 837 1,031 1,359

131 62 58 85 123

302 255 233 411 346

149 215 254 260 397

253 304 293 275 493

1969--Mar.

5 12 19 26

527 627 691 696

207 248 85 268

734 875 776 964

104 -84 43

112 342 168 309

184 265 247 320

334 268 277 292

Apr.

2 9 16 23 30

- 886 - 722 - 615 - 963 -1,033

309 225 144 172 85

1,195 947 759 1,135 1,118

-75 84 201 63

489 486 361 428 290

335 144 140 281 401

371 242 174 225 364

May

7 14 21 28

-1,120 910 -1,242 -1,190

483 261 116 113

1,603 1,171 1,358 1,303

146 121 165 59

462 260 378 284

489 385 360 353

506 405 455 607

June

4 p 11 p 18 p

-1,186 - 872 -1,271

336 388 45

1,522 1,260 1,316

43 86 --

515 371 465

326 303 283

638 500 568

p - Preliminary.

Table 2 AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Retrospective Changes, Seasonally Adjusted (In per cent, annual rates based on monthly averages of daily figures) Reserve Period

Aggre

Total Reserves

+11.7

+ 7.0

+ 4.3

+ 7.1 + 1.4 +10.4 + 8.8

- 3.0

- 5.0

+ 0.6

- 7.3 + 2.2

- 7.3 + 0.6 +11.8

+ 0.3 + 4.2

- 5.6 - 0.6 +10.4 + 8.3 +21.4 + 1.4 + 9.6 + 7.5 + 9.2

+ 3.1 - 6.4 - 8.7 -8.5 + 0.7

+11.3 - 4.6 - 4.7 - 3.1 +10.8

1968 1968 1968 1968

+ 7.5

+ 0.7

+ 1.0 +10.4

+ 8.6

1st Quarter 1969

1969--January February March April May p

p - Preliminary.

+ 8.3 +

6.4

+21.9 + 2.8 + 7.6 + 6.9

+11.1 + -

6.1 4.7 4.3 5.9

+15.7

Total

Supp

Currency

Variables

1 y Private Demand sits

+ 5.2

1.7

+13.9

+12.6 +21.9 +

6.8

+ 8.3

Comnercial banktime deposits adjusted

+10.2 + 7.1

+11.5

Monthly: 1968--April May June July August September October November December

__Monetary

one y

Total Member Bank Deposits

+10.0 + 7.1

Quarterly: 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter

Required Reserves

Nonborrowed Reserves I

Annually 1967 1968

ates

+ 6.4 + 6.5

+ 5.5 + 7.4

+ 1.2 +13.1 +12.2

+ + + +

- 5.4

+ 1.9

+ 7.4

- 4.7

+ 5.9 +11.7 + 8.4 +12.8 + 5.7 - 5.0 + 4.4 +10.7 + 7.5

+ 8.8 +5.8 +11.5 + 5.7 +11.4 + 2.8 + 2.8 +11.2 + 5.6

+ 3.7 + 0.6 + 1.2 +10.5 - 2.5

+ 5.5 + 8.3 + 8.2

+ 8.6

+ 1.7 + 6.5 + 9.0 +21.4 + 8.4

+12.5 +11.1 +12.7 - 4.9 - 1.2

-10.2 + 5.3 - 2.5

4.6 8.7 4.5 7.6

+ 6.7 + 6.2

borrowings)

+16.1 +11.3

+11.6 + 9.5

+ 7.0 + 3.2

+ 7.4 + 3.5

+17.9 +15.7

+14.0 +11.7

- 6.5

- 2.4

+ 6.8 +12.6 + 7.5 +14.9 + 3.3 - 7.3 + 5.7 +10.6 + 7.3

+ 2.6 + 3.2

- 3.8 + 5.1

+ 3.8 +14.0 +21.4 +17.3 +17.7 +14.4 +14.3

+ 9.3 +10.1 +22.1

+ 4.0 - 1.6 - 0.8 +13.6 - 5.5

-10.6

- 2.0

- 8.9

+ 2.0

- 1.2 - 4.2

+ 6.0

6.9 8.8 6.7 6.6

+ 8.1

Credit Proxy (Incl. Eurodollar

+ 9.4

+11.8 +11.3 +11.6

- 7.1 - 2,0

Table 3 AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Seasonally Adjusted (Based on monthly averages of daily figures) Member Bank Deposits Supported by Required Reserves Total Private U.S. Gov't. I T demand member bank de demand deposits deposits deposits 1/ deposits denosits

Reserve Aggregates Period

Total resreserv I

Monthly: 1968--Jan. Feb.

Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1969--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May p

Nonborrowed reserves

Required reserves

SMoney Total

I n

(In millions of dollars) 26,064 26,273 26,363 26,202 26,250 26,432 26,574 27,058 27,121 27,293 27,651 27,705

25,748 25,884 25,667 25,510 25,523 25,774 26,045 26,520 26,670 26,855 26,861 26,956

25,704 25,910 25,990 25,868 25,856 26,080 26,261 26,729 26,761 26,974 27,142 27,350

27,845 27,737 27,637 27,501 27,861

27,025 26,882 26,688 26,499 26,514

27,608 27,502 27,394 27,324 27,571

274.7 deposits 277.0 278.0 276.9 277.3 278.8 280.9 285.9 287.9 290.9 293.6 296.7

149.9 150.2 151.2 151.3 151.5 151.8 153.8 156.5 158.9 161.5 163.5 165.8

295.1 294.8 292.3 293.6 293.0

163.2 161.0 160.5 160.1 159.3

b i

Private L 119.4

1 lions

Commercial

Supply Money Supply Currency

2/ ars

bank time Private deposits demand adjusted deposits 3 4/ __

Preliminary.

Proxy (Incl. Euro dollar borrowings

119.7 120.1 120.4 122.1 123.2 124.3 124.6 123.6 124.5 125.4 126.7

5.4 7.1 6.7 5.2 3.7 3.9 2.7 4.8 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.2

182.3 182.7 183.4' 184.3 186.1 187.4 189.4 190.3 189.5 190.2 191.9 193.1

40.6 40.7 41.1 41.4 41.6 42.0 42.2 42.6 42.7 42.8 43.2 43.4

141.7 141.9 142.2 143.0 144.5 145.4 147.2 147.6 146.7 147.4 148.7 149.6

184.1 185.2 186.7 187.1 187.6 188.2 190.4 193.8 196.6 199.5 201.9 204.3

279.0 281.5 282.6 281.7 282.9 285.1 287.5 292.8 295.1

126.6 127.2 126.9 127.6 127.8

5.3 6.7 4.8 5.8 5.9

193.7 193.8 194.0 195.7 195.3

43.6 43.9 44.2 44.2 44.5

150.1 149.9 149.8 151.5 150.8

202.5 201.0 201.0 200.8 200.1

303.0 303.5 301.7 303.2 302.7

1/ Private demand deposits include demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations and net interbank deposits. 2/ Includes currency outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the vaults of all commercial banks. / Includes (1) demand deposits at all commercial banks, other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government, process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (2) foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve Banks. 4/ Excludes interbank and U.S. Government time deposits. p -

Credit

less cash items in

298.0

300.8 303.7

AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Seasonally Adjusted (Based on weekly averages of daily figures)

Reserve Aggregates Peri

Total

Nonborrowed reserve reserves

RequTotal reer

reserves Sreserves reserves

Weekly: 1969--Jan.

ICommercial

Member Bank Deposits Money Supply

_Supported by Required Reserves

res reserves reserves (In millions ot dollars)

member bank

Time si

deposideposits

deposits

Private demand deposits 1/

I n

U.S. Gov't. demand deposits

lions

Total

o f

bank time deposits adjusted

Currency

Private demand

deposits 3,

d o 1 lars

Credit Proxy (Incl. Eurc dollar

borrowingsts borrowings

1 8 15 22 29

28,096 27,778 28,027 27,910 27,682

27,176 27,070 27,289 27,103 26,671

27,620 27,536 27,802 27,697 27,454

297.4 297.2 294.9 294.4 293.8

165.5 164.4 163.9 162.8 162.1

127.9 128.2 126.7 126.0 124.9

4.0 4.5 4.3 5.6 6.8

193.7 195.4 193.8 193.6 191.6

43.4 43.5 43.5 43.6 43.5

150.3 151.9 150.2 150.0 148.1

204.1 203.3 202.8 202.1 201.5

304.1 303.9 302.8 302.7 302.4

Feb.

5 12 19 26

27,666 27,593 27,707 27,913

26,837 26,844 26,638 27,157

27,407 27,412 27,439 27,684

294.1 295.5 295.3 294.4

161.4 161.1 160.8 160.6

126.2 126.3 127.7 128.0

6.5 8.0 6.8 5.8

192.8 192.9 194.8 194.3

43.7 43.9 44.0 43.8

149.1 149.0 150.9 150.5

201.0 201.0 201.0 200.9

302.5 304.2 303.8 303.2

Mar.

5 12 19 26

27,919 27,710 27,461 27,611

27,035 26,785 26.680 26,600

27,637 27,410 27,366 27,353

293.6 293.8 292.1 291.2

160.4 160.6 160.5 160.7

127.6 126.7 126.6 126.9

5.6 6.5 5.1 3.6

193.8 193.6 194.0 194.6

43.8 44.1 44.2 44.3

149.9 149.5 149.9 150.3

200.7 200.9 200.7 200.9

302.6 303.1 301.6 300.8

Apr.

2 9 16 23 30

27,535 27,264 27,301 27,745 27,683

26,345 26,370 26,549 26,630 26,490

27,226 27,084 27,196 27,560 27,483

291.8 294.1 293.6 293.7 292.4

160.7 160.6 160.2 160.1 159.8

128.1 128.7 128.1 126.9 126.0

3.0 4.9 5.3 6.7 6.6

195.2 197.9 196.4 194.6 193.4

44.3 44.4 44.2 44.3 44.2

150.8 153.5 152.1 150.3 149.2

201.1 201.2 200.9 200.6 200.3

301.2 303.4 303.2 303.4 302.4

May

7 14 21 28

28,119 27,758 27,657 27,878

26,666 26,576 26,266 26,579

27,611 27,484 27,481 27,750

292.7 294.6 293.2 292.5

159.6 159.4 159.3 159.1

126.6 127.8 128.8 128.1

6.5 7.3 5.1 5.3

194.0 195.1 196.9 195.8

44.3 44.5 44.5 44.6

149.7 150.6 152.4 151.2

200.2 200.2 200.1 200.0

302.3 304.2 302.8 302.2

June

4 11 18

27,931 27,830 27,329

26,439 26,550 26,030

27,470 27,382 27,251

291.1 291.2 290.3

158.8 158.8 158.3

128.0 127.8 127.8

4.4 4.7 4.2

194.9 195.6 196.2

44.9 44.7 45.0

150.1 150.9 151.2

199.6 199.8 199.3

300.9 302.1 302.6

1/ Private demand deposits include demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations and net interbank deposits. 2/ Includes currency outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the vaults of all commercial banks. 3/ Includes (1) demand deposits at all commercial banks, other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government, process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (2) foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve Banks. 4/ Excludes interbank and U.S. Government time deposits. p - Preliminary.

less cash items in

Table 5 SOURCE OF FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT Retrospective Changes (Dollar amounts in millions of dollars, based on weekly averages of daily figures)

Period

Total Federal Reserve credit S(Excl. float)

U.S. Government securities Total holdings

Bills 1/

Federal Agency Securities

Repurchase agreements

Other

Bankers' acceptances

Member banks borrowings

Year:

1967 (12/28/66-12/27/67) 1968

(12/27/67-12/26/68)

Weekly: 1969--Feb.

Mar,

Apr.

May

'5 12 19 26

+4,718 +3,757

+5,009 +3,298

+4,433 +2,143

+ + +

77 146 306

+ +

292

69 69

105

109

123 109

2 9 16 23 30

103

+ +

51 57

559

284

+ +

819 280

7 14 21 28

+ +

345 118

+ + +

66 190 243

146* -143* + 319*

S 39

307

--- ) )

+1,153 +1,176

307) 50) 68) 54)

5 12 19 26

( (

-----

) ) ) )

)

577 21

146

251

308

+ + + +

74 82 11

+ -

203 514

52 -

72 146 11

156-) 156) 156) -)

- 69 52

7) 533) 460) 80)

7 211

223

304

256

June

4p lip 18p

+ +

308 256

+ + + j

351 284 118

116 28 - 151

71 309

reserve effect of match sale-purchase agreement. Figures in parenthesis reflect of $+96 million of the week of April Includes effect of changes in special certificates $-723 million of the week of April 23. p - Preliminary. 1/ * -

____________

9, $+627 million of the week of April 16,

_____________

Table 6

MAJOR SOURCES AND USES OF RESERVES Retrospective and Prcspective Changes (Dollar amounts in millions, based on weekly averages of daily figures) F a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g u p p 1 y of r e se r v a Federal Reserve Currency Trea Foreign Other nonmember Reseroldve Treasury Float deposits deposits credit (excl. outside erations Float deposits deposits and gold loans F.R. accounts operatioand tock banks float) float) L/renserves ) s e f J t r e serves g n ( S cat 725 +4,718 -2,305 85 - 389 + 316 +3,757 -3,221 928 -2,067 + 869 +1,309

PeriodP

. . (12/28/66-12/27/67) 1968 (12/27/67-12/25/68) Weekly: 1969--Apr.

May

June

July

Change = Bank use of reserves in Required Ex Required Excess totaleseres rese reserves res +1,522 +1,508

+1,517 +1,563

2 9 16 23 30

+ + + +

98 936 164

7 14 21 28

155

182

111

4 11 18

338 259 80

150 _

____I

1/ For retrospective details, see Table 5. 2/ See reverse side for explanation.

_"-

1-I

100 75

110 290 290

2 9 16 23

p - Preliminary.

120

Ii. ,

I-

PROJECTED 2 1969--June

+ +

100 130

120

+ +

240 135 5 -175

80 60

+ -

5 55

Explanation of Projections in Table 6 1.

Changes in Federal Reserve credit indicate reserves needed to offset projected changes in required reserves and factors affecting the supply of reserves.

Projected changes in currency outside banks reflect seasonal movements plus an allowance for growth of about $50 million per week.

Projected effects of Treasury operations, included in "technical factors," reflect scheduled and assumed calls in current two weeks and maintenance of Treasury balances with Federal Reserve at $1.0 billion, thereafter.

Projected changes in required reserves assume the existing net reserve position of banks and the structure of interest rates in the market, as well as the current economic outlook. On the basis of these assumptions, projections reflect expected movements in bank credit and money in the period ahead, including the effects of such elements as the public's loan demand, repayments of previous loans, banks' investment preferences and willingness to supply loans, banks' desires and abilities to obtain time and savings deposits, and the Government's financing needs. The projections thus encompass normal seasonal developments, temporary bursts of loans demand and expected associated repayments not currently reflected by the seasonals, and whatever cyclical and growth demands for money and credit are expected in the projection period. Assumed Treasury financing operations include: $-4.1 billion, June 23; $4.0 billion, July 23.

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1969, June 23). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19690624

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19690624,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1969},
  month = {Jun},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19690624},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}