bluebooks · July 14, 1969

Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

July 11, 1969. MONEY MARKET AND RESERVE RELATIONSHIPS

Recent Developments (1)

Short-term market interest rates rose further on balance

in the latter part of June and early July, as the squeeze on bank liquidity continued, as sizable Government and corporate demands on short-term credit markets loomed, and as final Congressional action on the surtax extension was delayed.

Long-term corporate and municipal yields

edged temporarily lower in the latter half of June as some investor interest in corporates developed and as the volume of tax-exempt issues slackened. But the yield declines in the corporate market were erased in large part in early July, reflecting the large corporate issue calendar in coming weeks.

In general upward rate pressure was more pronounced in short-term

than in long-term markets, possibly indicating some abatement in expectations of further sizable future interest rate increases.

In this connection

it might be noted that stock prices have dropped considerably further in recent days.

And a vigorous rally developed in U.S. Government

bond

markets just before the week-end. (2) positions,

With dealers reluctant to maintain more than minimal

Treasury bill

rates fluctuated widely in response to seasonal

bill demands and to prospects for increased supplies of bills and Agency issues.

The Treasury auctioned $3-1/2 billion of tax bills on July 9

and 11.

And the Federal Home Loan Bank Board announced that on July 15

it would offer $900 million of new issues to raise $500 million of new cash.

The 3-month Treasury bill rate fluctuated in a range of 6.07

-2to 7.04 per cent since the last Committee meeting, and was most recently bid at around 6.90 per cent, 40 basis points above its level at the time of the meeting.

With respect to private short-term interest rates, yields

on 4 - 6 month commercial paper rose by about 25 basis points over the period to 8-3/4 per cent, or a cost of 8-7/8 per cent to the issuer. (3) Although the wide range of variation in day-to-day money rates in recent weeks makes generalization difficult, it would appear that conditions were little changed from those prevailing in late May and the first three weeks of June.

Federal funds traded mostly in an

8-1/2 -- 9-1/4 per cent range over the past three statement weeks, a range of fluctuation similar to that of the weeks just preceding.

And

for all member banks, average borrowings from the Federal Reserve were $1.3 billion, also little changed from the preceding few weeks.

Net

borrowed reserves fluctuated in a $1 --$1.2 billion range. (4)

Total member bank deposits declined at about a 13 per

cent annual rate on average in June.

Private demand deposits, and the

money supply, were weaker than expected earlier, in part reflecting the absence of any growth in business loans over the month.

Total time

and savings deposits are estimated to have declined on average at a 5-1/2 per cent annual rate, paced by a further $1-3/4 billion drop in

CD's.

But banks did increase their Euro-dollar borrowings sharply over

the month, and the bank credit proxy adjusted to include such borrowings declined on average at a 3.2 per cent annual rate, in line with staff

expectations.

Weekly reports on other nondeposit sources of funds

indicate a rise of about $925 million from the last Wednesday of May

-3to the last Wednesday of June. weeks in May, it obviously is

In the absence of such data for the earlier impossible to calculate the rise in terms

equivalent to the proxy series.

However, it probably would not be

unreasonable to guess that the average June level exceeded an average May level by an amount equivalent to about 3 - 4 percentage points in the proxy series. (5)

The following table summarizes the changes in major deposit

and reserve aggregates for the last half of 1968 and the first two quarters of 1969. July '68Dec. '68

Jan. Mar.

'69'69

Apr. June '69

Total reserves

9.8

-1.3

-0.6

Nonborrowed reserves

9.9

-5.0

-6.7

Bank credit, as indicated by: Proxy

12.8

-5.4

-3.4

Proxy plus Euro-dollars

13.0

-2.4

-0.3

Total loans and investments (as of last Wednesday of month)

15.0

2,3

3.7

1.9

2.9

Money supply Time and savings deposits Savings accounts at thrift institutions

NOTE:

Dates are inclusive.

6.1 17.1

-6.5

6.4

6.1

-3.6

3.6

Prospective Developments (6)

Maintenance of prevailing money market conditions would

appear to encompass a Federal funds rate averaging around 8-3/4 -- 9 per cent, member bank borrowings in a $1 -- $1-1/2 billion range, and net borrowed reserves of around $1 billion or a little more.

The 3-month

bill rate is likely to continue to gyrate--but in a higher 6-3/4 -- 7-1/2 per cent range.

The cost of carrying bills may tend to maintain the rate

generally above 7 per cent, given slack seasonal demands and a rising supply of bills and competing instruments.

Expectations, as they in-

fluence dealer willingness to take positions, will be an important factor affecting bill rate movements, with current very low positions providing scope for dealers to accumulate bills.

Long-term rates, too,

will be strongly influenced by expectations; while near-term demands on the capital market appear relatively strong, their upward impact on interest rates could be moderated, and perhaps reversed, by a bearish stock market and economic outlook or by hopeful peace developments. (7)

On balance, the System will probably absorb reserves

during the last half of July and provide reserves in the first half of August.

The reserve projections do not include allowance for any reserves

that may be required if the regulation eliminating from cash items amounts generated by Euro-dollar transactions is implemented.

Presumably, these

reserves would be supplied through additional open market operations unless the intention in issuing the regulation were to tighten domestic monetary conditions further.

But individual bank adjustments might still

result in some temporary money market churning.

-5(8) With the 3-month bill rate so high, there is little prospect for any let-up in CD attrition over the next few eeks.

It is

now expected that outstanding CD's in July will decline by about $1-1/2 -- $1-3/4 billion, which, after allowing for seasonals, would be a larger run-off than in June.

With respect to other time and

savings deposits, banks (as well as thrift institutions) apparently experienced substantial net outflows around the interest-crediting period. And while these outflows should abate after the first several days of July, at current market yield levels no sizable inflow of other time and savings deposits is expected through mid-August.

Thus, total time

and savings deposits in July are expected to decline more rapidly then in June--in a 12 - 15 per cent, annual rate, range. (9) The money supply in July may rise in a 3 - 6 per cent, annual rate, range.

U.S. Government deposits are projected to decline

sharply, but private demand deposits are not expected to show a commensurate rise, as corporations and others quickly economize on cash balances, given the tight position of banks and of corporations themselves. (10)

With banks stiffening loan terms and lending standards,

and also unable to provide any significant support to securities markets, outstanding bank credit is expected to drop, on average, in July.

Total

reserves and member bank deposits are likely to decline sharply--in a

12 - 15 per cent, annual rate, range for the latter--but in order to accommodate some domestic customers banks will probably rely on the Euro-dollar market, even given the marginal reserve requirement proposal,

-6and other nondeposit sources.

Assuming some further growth in Euro-

dollars from current advanced levels, the bank credit proxy adjusted to include Euro-dollars is expected to decline in a 5 - 8 per cent, annual

rate, range.

There is little reason to believe that nondeposit sources

of funds will rise less rapidly than in June, given the continuing pressure on bank deposits; on the other hand, the incoming data are not suggestive of an accelerating trend. (11)

In August, total member bank deposits may decline only

slightly further.

Pressure may be eased by a little pick-up in consumer-

type time deposits and by a noticeably smaller amount of maturing CD's. Credit demands on banks in August may also be affected by dealer and bank support of the Treasury mid-August refunding.

This refunding will be

announced in late July, and will involve at least $3.2 billion of publicly-held issues.

In addition, the Treasury is expected to raise

$1-1/2 billion of new cash in late August.

1 MEMBER BANK RESERVES Chart

mONTHLY AVERAGES Of DAILY FIGUPES

17 i T

-T

T-T

BILLIONS Of DOLLARS, SEASONALLY ADJUTE

28 5

28 0-

27 0

26 5

25 5

NONSORROWED

IREQUIRED

RESERVES 24

24 0

23 5

_-_

-- 4

RESERVES

__-

-T

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

00.f_____

___

MEMBER SANK BORROWINGS

1967

J 1968

MJ 1969

Chart 2

MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS AND LIABILITIES TO OVERSEAS BRANCHES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS (CREDIT PROXY) 302

SEAS ----

ADJ WEEKLY AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

298

294

290

286

282

278-

274

270

LIABILITIES TO OVERSEAS BRANCHES (WEEKLY REPORTING BANKSI 12

NOT SEAS

ADJ -

--- I-

1968

1969

Chart 3

MONEY SUPPLY AND BANK DEPOSITS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED WEEKLY AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

I I I BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

198

TIME DEPOSITS ADJUSTED (All Commercial Banks)

NEGOTIABLE CD'S NOT SEAS ,I

ADJ

WEDNESDAYS

J 1968

1969

Chart 4

DEMAND DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED WEEKLY AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

MONEY SUPPLY COMPONENTS:

CURRENCY

OUTSIDE BANKS

36 DEMAND DEPOSITS

142 146

----------------------------------

142

138

134

U.S. GOVT. DEMAND DEPOSITS (Member Banks)

I M

1968

1969

MARGINAL RESERVE MEASURES

(Dollar amounts in millions, based on period averages of daily figures) Member Period

Free

Excess

reserves

Banks Re s e r v e

Total

Borrowings C i ty

Major banks 8 N.Y.

Country

Outside N.Y.

Monthly (reserves weeks ending in): 1968--April May June July August September October November December

341 374 386 192 240 146 192 255 270

348 354 341 331 337 346 267 286 330

689 728 727 523 577 492 458 541 600

56 65 72 13 195 125 81 65 134

262 155 168 140 65 158 88 171 223

148 186 141 102 101 73 117 93 66

223 322 346 268 215 136 172 212 177

1969--January February March April May Junep 1969--May 7 14 21 28

- 477 - 580 - 635 - 844 -1,116 -1,095 -1,120 - 910 -1,242 -1,190

359 256 202 187 243 261 483 261 116 113

836 836 837 1,031 1,359 1,356 1,603 1,171 1,358 1,303

131 62 58 85 123 57 146 121 165 59

302 255 233 411 346 459 462 260 378 284

149 215 254 260 397 288 489 385 360 353

253 304 293 275 493 552 506 405 455 607

4 11

-1,152 - 812

369 448

1,522 1,260

43 86

552 375

289 300

638 500

-1,241

1,315

465

283

569

25 p

-1,174

151

1,325

449

276

503

2 p

-1,166

468

1,634

125

416

395

698

9 p

-1,000

1,019

162

333

523

June

July

Table 2 AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Retrospective Changes, Seasonally Adjusted (In per cent, annual rates based on monthly averages of daily figures) I

Reserve Total Reserve

PerLod

Ag grega

Nonborrowed Reserves

Annually 1967 1968 Quarterly, 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Ouarter

1968 1968 1968 1968

1st Quarter 1969 96 9 2nd Quarter 1 p Monthly: 1968--April May June July August September October November December 1969--January February March April May June p

p -

Preliminary.

t e s Required Reserves

M o n e

+10 2 +71

+11 7 + 8.6

+ 6.4

+ 7.5 + 1.0 +10.4 + 8.6

+ 0.7 + 1.7 +13.9 + 4.3

+71 + 1.4 +10 4 + 8.8

+ 7.0

-40 -67

+ 0.6 - 1.5

5.4

3.4

- 7.3 + 0.6

-7.3

+ 2.2 + 8.3

5.6

+11.8 +12.6 +21.9 + 6.8 + 8.3 + 0.3 + 4.2

+ 6.1

+ 3.1

+11 3

4,7

4.3

-66 +16 5 -11 6

6.4 -8.7

-10.1 + 2.4 -12 4

+ 8 3

+21 4 + 1 4

+ 9.6 + +757 5 + 9.2 4.6

-47 - 3.1 +10.8

-12

+ 1.2 +13.1 +12.2

- 4.7

-06 +10.4

+ 6.4 +21.9 + 2.8 + 7.0 +69 +11.1 -

1 v Private Demand Depoits

+17 + 6.5 + 9.0 +21.4 + 8.4 +12 5 +11 1 +12 7 -49 - 12 -10 2 + 5.3 - 2 5 -13 1

Commercial bank time deposits

Credit Proxy (Incl. Eurodollar borrowngs

adjusted

S___

411.5 + 5.2

-06

Currency

+10.0 + 7.1

1.0

S u p

I Total

ables

Var

Monetary Total Member Banl, Depoits

+ 5 5 + 7 4 +55

+ 6.7 +62

+16 1 +11 3

+11.6 + 9.5

+ 4.6 + 8.7 + 4.5 + 7.6

+ 6.9 +88 +6.7

+ +373 7

+ 6 6

+ 9.0 + 3.6 + 7.9

+7 0 + 3.2 +17.9 +15.7

+74 + 3.5 +14 0 +11.7

+ 1.9 + 2.9

+ 7 4 +66 +74 +63

+ 0.5 +

-65 -36

+04

+ 5.9 +11.7 + 8.4 +12.8 + 5.7

+ 8.8 + 5.8 +11 5 + 5.7 +11 4 + 2.8 + 2.8 +11 2 + 5.6

+ 6.8 +12.6 + 7.5 +14.9

+ 2.6

+ +323 2

+57 +10 6 + 7.3

+38 +14 +21 +17 +17 +14 +14

+ 5.1 + 9.3 +10.1 +22.1

+ 3.7 + 06 + 1.2 +10.5

+55 +83 + 8.2

+ 4.0

-10 6

+10 9 + 8.1

+ 6.5

- 5.0 + 4.4

+10.7 + 7 5

3.1

+12

+74

+ 3.3 - 7.3

1.6

-08 +13.6 -

6.3

- 1 6

0 4 3 7 4 3

8.9

- 1.2 -4.2

-54

2.4

3.8

+11 8 +11 3 +11 6 -20 +20 -71 + 6.0 -16 -32

)

Table 3 AGGREGATE

RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Seasonally Adjusted

(Based on monthly averages of daily figures) Member Bank Deposits orted by Required Reserves Private U.S. Gov't Time demand demand ositst deosits pdosits 1/ . I de deDostts E

Reserve Aggregates Period

lin Monthly' 1968--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

26,064 26,273 26 361 26,202 26,250 26,432 26,574 27,058 27,121 27,293 27,451 27,705

25, 718 25,884 25,(67 25 510 25, 521 25,774 26,045 26 520 26,670 26,855 26.861 26,956

25,704 25,910 25,990 25,868 25,856 26,080 26,261

1969--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June p

27,845 27,737 27,637 27,486 27,864 27,595

27,025 26,882 26,688 26,464 26,517 26,244

b i

i on s

Credit Commercial Proxy bank time Private (Incl. Euro deposits dollar demand adjusted borrowings 4/3I I deposits V i I I

Money Supply Total

Currency I

dol

2/ ars

26,761 26,974 27,142 27,350

277.0 278.0 276.9 277.3 278.8 280.9 285.9 287.9 290.9 293.6 296.7

149.9 150.2 151.2 151.3 151.5 151.8 153.8 156.5 158.9 161.5 163.5 165.8

119.4 119.7 120.1 120.4 122.1 123.2 124.3 124.6 123.6 124.5 125.4 126.7

5.4 7.1 6.7 5.2 3.7 3.9 2.7 4.8 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.2

182.3 182.7 183.4 184.3 186.1 187.4 189.4 190.3 189.5 190.2 191.9 193.1

141.7 141.9 142.2 143.0 144.5 145.4 147.2 147.6 146.7 147.4 148.7 149.6

184.1 185.2 186.7 187.1 187.6 188.2 190.4 193.8 196.6 199.5 201.9 204.3

279.0 281.5 282.6 281.7 282.9 285.1 287.5 292.8 295.1 298.0 300.8 303.7

27,608 27,502 27,394 27,324 27,571 27,294

295.1 294.8 292.3 293.6 293.0 289.8

163.2 161.0 160.5 160.1 159.3 158 1

126.6 127.2 126.9 127.6 127.8 127.7

5.3 6.7 4.8 5.8 5.9 4.0

193.7 193.8 194.0 195.7 195.2 195 4

150.1 149.9 149.8 151.5

202.5 201.0 201.0 200.8 200.1 199.2

303.0 303.5 301.7 303.2 302.8 302.0

26,729

i ______________________________________

150.7 150 5

Private demand deposits include demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations and net interbank deposits. Includes currency outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the vaults of all commercial banks. Includes (1) demand deposits at all commercial banks, other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government, process of collection and Federal Reserve float, and (2) foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve Banks. 4/ Excludes interbank and U S Government time deposits p - Preliminary 1/ 2/ 3/

L ________________ J _________________

less cash items in

Table 4 RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Seasonally Adjusted (Based on weekly averages of daily figures)

AGGREGATE

ocseive Total

Perod

reserves Weekly: 1969--Jan.

AgAte aLes

Nonborrwed Nreserves

Required I Reserve

Member

Total

Time member hanki depos deposits

(In millions of dollars)

Bank Deposits

Private U.S. Gov't dmand demand deposits 1/ deposLts b I o n (I n

Total

Currency 2/ 1 a

Commercial|

Credit

Private demand deposits 3

deposits adjusted 4/

(Incl. Euro dollar borrowings

1 8 15 22 29

28,096 27,778 28,027 27,010 27,682

27,176 27,070 27,289 27,103 26,671

27,620 27,536 27,802 27,697 27,454

297.4 297.2 294 9 294.4 293.8

165 5 164 4 163.9 162.8 162.1

127 9 128.2 126.7 126.0 124.9

4.0 4 5 4.3 5.6 6.8

193.7 195.4 193.8 193.6 191 6

43 4 43.5 43.5 43.6 43 5

150 3 151 9 150.2 150 0 148 1

204 1 203.3 202.8 202.1 201 5

304 1 303.9 302.8 302.7 302 4

5 12 19 26

27,666 27,593 27,707 27,913

S 26,837 26,844 26,638 27,137

27,407 27,412 27,439 27,684

294 1 295 5 295.3 294 4

161.4 161.1 160.8 160.6

126 126 127 128

2 3 7 0

6 5 8 0 6.8 5 8

192 8 192 9 194.8 194.3

43 7 43.9 44.0 43 8

149 1 149 0 150 9 150.5

201 0 201 0 201.0 200 9

302.5 304.2 303.8 303.2

Mar

5 12 19 26

27,910 27,710 27,461 27,611

27,03 26,78' 26 680 26,600

27,637 27,410 27,366 27,353

293 6 293 8 292 1 291.2

160 4 160 6 160.5 160 7

127.6 126 7 126.6 126.9

5.6 6 5 5.1 3.6

193 8 193 6 194.0 194.6

43.8 44 1 44.2 44 3

149.9 149 5 149.9 150.3

200.7 200 9 200.7 200.9

302.6 303 1 301 6 300 8

Apr

2 9 16 23 30

27,535 27,271 27,710 27,683

26,345 26,287 26,519 26,595 26,490

27,226 27,084 27,196 27,560 27,483

291.8 294.1 293.6 293.7 292.4

160 7 160.6 160 2 160.1 159 8

128.1 128.7 128 1 126.9 126.0

3.0 4.9 5 3 67 6.6

195.2 197 9 196 4 194.6 193 4

44.3 44.4 44 2 44.3 44 2

150 8 153 5 152 1 150.3 149 2

201.1 201.2 200 9 200.6 200.3

301 2 303.4 303 2 303 5 302.4

May

7 14 21 28

28,119 27,758 27,657 27.878

26,666 26,576 26,266 26,579

27,611 27,484 27,481 27,750

292.7 294 6 293 2 292.5

159.6 159 4 159 3 '19.1

126 6 127.8 128.8 128.1

6.5 7.3 5 1 5.3

194 0 195.1 196 8 195.8

44.3 44.5 44.5 44.6

149.7 150.6 152.3 151.2

200 2 200.2 200.1 200.0

302.4 304 3 302. 9 302.7

June

4 11 18 25

27,964 27,890 27,383 27,257

26,473 26,610 26,093 26,082

27,470 27 382 27,148 27,731

291.1 291.2 290. 1 288 3

158.8 158. 7 158. 2 157.6

128.0 127.9 127. 6 127 2

4. 3 4. 6 4. 3 3 5

195 195 195 194

44.9 44. 8 44 9 44 9

150.1 150.9 150 3 150 0

199.6 199. 7 199.2 198 7

301 1 302. 3 302.6 301 5

July

2 9

27,659 26,931

25,985 25,887

27,181 26,931

287 6 286 6

157 1 156 4

127 4 126 8

45 0 44 9

150 9 150 1

198 1 197 2

300 9 299 8

Feb

27,264

0 8 1 9

195.8 195 0

1/ Private demand deposits include demand deposits of in ndividuals, partnerships, and corporations and net interbank deposits. 2/ Includes currency outside the Treas ry, the Fedcr 1 Reserve, and the vaults of all commercial banks. Includes (1) demand de p o s its at all commercial ban k s , other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U S Government, less cash items in 4 / process of collection ard Federal Reserve fLoat, and d (2) foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve Banks. 4/ Excludes interbank and U S Government time deposits p - Preliminary.

Table 5 SOURCE OF FEDERAL RESERVF CREDIT Retrospective Changes (Dollar amounts in million of dollars, based on weekly averages of daily figures) "

Period I

Year 1967 (12/28/66 - 12/27/67) 1968 (12/27/67 - 12/26/68)

Total Federal Reserve credit (Ercl. float)

Total holdings •

+4 718

43,757

L.S. Goverrment securities I I RIIs I/ I Other *1 I

+5,009 +3,298

+4,433 ( +2,143 (

)

I +

+ -

57 559

+1,153 +1,176

Repurcha=e agreements -

Federal Agency Securitie

577 21

Bankers' accentances -.

Member banks borrowines __

___

- 19 3

203 514

Weekly

1969--Apr

May

June

July

2 9 16 23 30

357

113 380

773 347

+ +

819 ( 280 (

7 14 21 28

+ -

794

+ +

41 (

293

+ +

149 259

4 11 18 25 p

439

35 18

2 p 9 p

677

248

-166 +

I+

51 ( ( (

--- + +

223 4

+ +

10 9 15 20 56

304 52 256 32

+ + +

25 18 9 21

+ -

116 28 151

50 20 29

117 2

+ -

53 29

) 156) 156)

S27

)

71) 309) 191) 189) 121)

52 7 211

7) 533) 460) 80)

+ +

Figures in parenthesis reflect reserve effect of match sale-purchase agreement. Includes effect of changes in special certificates of $+96 million of the week of April 9, $+627 million of the week of April 16, and $-723 million of the week of April 23. Preliminary.

(Mnthl Monty c Market Period

__ _

Free Borrowings Reserves dIn millions of (In millions of dollars for weeks ending In)

FINANCIAL MARKET RELATIONSHIPS IN PERSPECTIVE f s and whe r l 1 .Il1r ilr^ l -,i ro , c f H ,1 ,

Indicators Federal Funds

3-month Treasury

Rate

B20

U S. Govcrnment

Corporte I New I Mes Issues (Aaa) 2/

Flow of Reserves

Bond Yields MunicipalMoney Mu pal ((ia)

honborrowcd Reserves

Bank Credit and Money, S A

Totl Reserves

Bank Monty Time lme Credit Supply Deposits P ro (In billions of dollars)

I (In millions of dollars)

1968--June July August September October November December

386 192 240 146 192 255 327

727 523 577 492 458 541 743

6 07 6.02 6.03 5.78 5.92 5 81 6 02

5.52 5.31 5.23 3 19 5.35 5 45 5 96

5 40 5 29 5 22 5.28 5 44 5.56 5 88

6 65 6.51* 6 15 6.27 6.47 6.61 6.79

4 21 4.12 4.00 4.23 4.21 4.33 4.50

+ + + + + + +

251 271 475 150 185 6 95

+ + + + + + +

182 142 484 63 172 158 254

+ + + + + + +

1.5 2.1 5.0 2.0 3.0 2.7 3.1

+ + + + + +

1 3 2.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.7 1.2

+ + + + + + +

0.6 2.2 3.4 2 8 2.9 2 4 2 4

1969--January February March April Iav June

491 580 635 844 -1,116 -1 087

715 836 837 1,031 1,359 1,355

6.30 6.64 6 79 7 41 8 67 8.90

6 14 6 12 6 02 6.11 6.04 6 44

5.99 6 11 6.22 6.03 6.11 6 28

6 6 7 7 7 7

92 91* 37 17 22 58

4.58 4 74 4 97 5.00 5 19 5.58

+ + -

69 143 194 224 53 285

+ + -

140 108 100 151 378 280

+ -

1.5-* O 3 2.5 1.3 0.6 3 1

+ 0,6 + 0 1 + 0 2 + 1.7 - 0 5 + 0.2

1 8 1.5 --

0 2 0.7 0.9

969--June

4 11 18 25 p

-1,152 812 -1 216 -1 168

1,521 1,260 1,315 1,325

9.20 9.13 8.54 8.34

6.16 6.50 6.65 6.48

6.40 6.32 6.22 6.27

7 52 7 75 7.66* 7.50*

5.55 5 60 5.60 5 55

+ -

106 137 517 11

+ -

86 74 507 126

- 1.4 + 0 1 - 1.2 - 1 7

+ + -

0.8 0.8 0.7 0.2

+ -

0.4 0.1 0.5 0.5

July

2 p 9 p

-1 166 -1 000

1,634 1,019

9.00 9 07

6.38 6.93

6.27 6.34

7.63 7.68*

5.55 5 52

97 98

+ -

402 728

+ 0.9 - 0.8

0.6 0.9

6.47 6.50 7.20

4 20 4.22 4.99

+ 5.6 + 9 9 - 5.3

+ 7 1 + 9.8 - 0 8

+ 8.6 +12.8 - 4.4

+ 6.5 + 6.1 + 2.4

+11.3 +17.1 -50

+ 9.9

+11.8

+14.1 - 6.0

+ 3 4 + 2,1

+18.1 - 6.4

Annual rates of increase 4/

Aver 5.36 5.42 6.17

548 529 1.034

Year 1968 Se-ond Half 1968 First Half 1969

0.8 1.0

Rerent variation in growth

7/3/68 - 12/18/68 12/18/68

7/9/69

203

516

5.90

789

1,048

7 43

5 34 6.18

5 40 6.13

6.47 7.22

7.1

p number of days in period Average of total Includes issues carrying 5-year and 10-year call protection, * - issues carry a 10-year call protection. commercial banks. Time deposits adjusted at all Base is change for month preceding specified per period or in case of weekly periods, the first week shown. **

Reflects $400 million reduction in member bank deposits resulting from withdrawal break in series. rates are adjusted to eliminate this

4.9

Preliminary

S A

of a large country bank from System membership.

annual

July

11,

1969.

Seasonally adjusted.

Percentage

Table

(Dollar amounts F a c t

Federal Rp,erve I

Period

credit (cxcl. 1/ float) float) 1/

_______________

Year1967 (12/28/66-12/27/67) 1968 (12/27/67-12/25/68) Weekly 1969--Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

+4,718 +3.757

MAJOR SOURCES AND USES OF RFSERVES Retrospective and Prospective Changes in millions, based on weekly averages of daily

F f e c t

Currency Gold stock ( S 725

-2,067

outside b banks baokss

i n g

s u p p ly

Treasury

Float

operand operaconse

S f f

-2,305 -3,221

85 928

272

231

4 25 -425 -330

+ +

625 125

For retrospective details, see Table 5. I/ 1/ See reverse side for explanation. p - Preliminary

+ -

485

130 -225

30 90 -

155

182

220 119

123

271

327

+ -

S48

342 278 59 160

227

111 -

3 7 7

124

100

+1,517 +1,563

+1,508

-40 32 4

+ +

+1,522

60 98 936 164

I +

U_ 40

Excess reserves

)

316 869

+ + +

150 350

ves

+ + +

350

- 50

+ +

+ -

reserves

295

= Bank use of reserves

25 15 29 5 2

16 23 30 6 13

660

+ -

Change totald reserves

deposts and F R accounts

deposits gold loans I

Other nonmember

Foreign

figures)

e r v e s

18 -120

p 9 p

+1,309

-741

4 11 18 25 p

7 14 21 28

389

2 9 16 23 30

PROJECTED 2, 1969--July

o r

+ +

185 135

, ,

...

+ -

5 55

Explanation of Projections in Table 6

Changes in Federal Reserve credit indicate reserves needed to offset projected changes in required reserves and factors affecting the supply of reserves.

Projected changes in currency outside banks reflect seasonal movements plus an allowance for growth of about $50 million per week.

Projected effects of Treasury operations, included in "technical factors," reflect scheduled and assumed calls in current two weeks and maintenance of Treasury balances with Federal Reserve at $1.0 billion, thereafter.

Projected changes in required reserves assume the existing net reserve position of banks and the structure of interest rates in the market, as well as the current economic outlook. On the basis of these assumptions, projections reflect expected movements in bank credit and money in the period ahead, including the effects of such elements as the public's loan demand, repayments of previous loans, banks' investment preferences and willingness to supply loans, banks' desires and abilities to obtain time and savings deposits, and the Government's financing needs. The projections thus encompass normal seasonal developments, temporary bursts of loans demand and expected associated repayments not currently reflected by the seasonals, and whatever cyclical and growth demands for money and credit are expected in the projection period. Assumed Treasury financing operations include: $+3.5 billion, July 18; $-0.7 billion, August 1.

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1969, July 14). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19690715

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19690715,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1969},
  month = {Jul},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19690715},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}