Bluebook
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Content last modified 6/05/2009.
CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
April 3,
1970.
MONEY MARKET AND RESERVE RELATIONSHIPS Recent developments
Preliminary estimates indicate that growth in the adjusted
(1)
bank credit proxy for both March and the first quarter was in line with annual rates regarded as desirable at the time of the last Committee meeting. While the money supply and time deposits appear to have grown somewhat more rapidly than projected over the period as a whole, for a time between meetings the emerging weekly evidence suggested that these aggregates were falling short of the earlier blue book figures.
However,
in the final--Easter--week of March, the preliminary data indicate that a very large bulge in private demand deposits developed, for the most part technical
This reflected
factors affecting cash items and related to
the 4-day holiday week-end abroad and perhaps also the postal strike and the air traffic slowdown. BOARD STAFF PROJECTIONS OF CHANGES IN MONETARY AGGREGATES COMPARED WITH ESTIMATED RESULTS For March and First Quarter (Seasonally adjusted annual rates) Expectations at last meeting
QI (March over December) Adjusted Proxy Money Supply Time Deposits
March 20
Current
Projection
Fztimate
4 0.3 + 2.0
- 0.1 + 1.6
+ 0.4 + 3.2
- 0.2
- 0.2
+ 0.2
+10.3 + 6.6 +12.5
+ 7.9 + 5.4 +11.9
+ 9.9 +11.4 +13.7
March (March over February)
Adjusted Proxy Money Supply Time Deposits
-2Time deposits in March showed their first major monthly
(2)
increase on average in over a year, as had been projected.
The size of
the increase was a little larger than anticipated, due in large measure to steeper than forecast declines in short-term market rates.
While a
build-up of foreign official CD's continued to account for a sizable part of the March growth in total time accounts, the pick-up in flows to consumer-type time and savings accounts--first evident in February--strengthened further during March.
Also, as Treasury bill yields dropped below
CD rate ceilings, sales of CD's to domestic holders began to develop. (3)
Despite the generally strengthened deposit flows, growth
in the adjusted bank credit proxy for March was about as projected in the last blue book.
In addition to a modest short-fall in U.S. Government
deposits as compared with estimates, the main factors offsetting greater deposit gains were larger cut-backs than forecast in Euro-dollar and slower than estimated growth in bank-related commercial paper.
borrowing From
the end of February to the end of March, Euro-dollar borrowings of major banks were reduced by more than $1 billion, while other nondeposit sources of funds, after their growth slowed in the early weeks of March, showed a net contraction of $160 million in the week ending March 25 (the latest for which data are available). (4)
Treasury bill yields have dropped 20 to 50 basis points on
balance from the levels prevailing at the time of the last Committee meeting,
and other short-term rates have dropped commensurately.
For a brief
period about ten days ago, bill yields reached substantially lower levels.
This temporary further decline reflected actions by dealers
to build up inventories and sizable seasonal demands for bills--arising from the pay-off of maturing tax bills, from bank window dressing, and from the Cook County property tax date--coming at a time when official statements and emerging financial statistics both seemed to be confirming market expectations that monetary policy had become less restrictive.
Since
late March, bill yields have backed up, with the 3-month issue most recently bid at about 6.35 per cent, as dealer bill positions expanded sharply to more than $4 billion and in partial reflection of a normal seasonal reversal in yields.
RECENT YIELDS ON TREASURY BILLS
(Per cent per annum)
3 month
Maturities 6 month
1 year
Level at close of day before March 10 Meeting
6.86
6.72
6.52
Recent Low (March 24)
6.08
6.19
6.26
April 2 Close
6.35
6.40
6.31
Memo: Investment Yield (April 2)
6.51
6.67
6.70
6.75
7.00
7.50
CD Ceilings
Money market conditions on balance have been somewhat
(5)
more comfortable over the last four weeks than in the prior intermeeting period.
Early in the period the Desk sought to achieve eas-
ier conditions that would help to offset the observed shortfall in the monetary aggregates relative to expectations, but more recently money market conditions have been permitted to firm up a little again, partly under the pressure of dealer financing needs.
Over
the inter-meeting weeks as a whole, the effective Federal funds rate averaged close to 7-3/4 per cent, compared to an average of about 8-3/4 per cent in the preceding 4-week period, and dealer financing costs declined to an average of around 8-3/8 per cent in New York. Net borrowed reserves have fluctuated in a fairly wide $675-$900 million range.
Excluding the most recent week, when bank uncertain-
ties about reserve positions and preparation for the quarterly statement data increased bank use of the discount window, member bank borrowings have averaged about $875 million. (6)
The following table compares recent changes in major
reserves, deposit and credit aggregates with earlier selected periods (in seasonally adjusted annual rates):
1969 (Dec. over Dec.)
Q3 '69 (Sept. over June)
Q4 '69 (Dec. over Sept.)
Q1 '70 p (March.-ver Dec.)
Total Reserves
-1.6
- 9.3
1.4
-3.4
Nonborrowed Reserves
-3.0
- 4.8
-0.1
-0.8
Money Supply
2.5
Time and savings deposits Savings accounts at nonbank thrift institutions
-5.3
--13.3
1.2
3.2
--
0.2 1/
3.3
2.1
1.3
-1.0-
Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy)
-4.0
- 9.4
0.1
0.4
Proxy plus Euro-dollars
-1.7
- 6.2
-0.3
Proxy plus Euro-dollars and other nondeposit sources
n.a.
- 4.0
2.0
Total loans and investments of all commercial banks
2.4
- 0.8
2.1
L&I plus loans sold outright to affiliates and foreign branches
3.4
0.8
2.2
Member bank deposits and related sources of funds
-1.9
0.4
Commercial bank credit (month end)
NOTE:
-0.4
2.5
All items are average of daily figures (with "other nondeposit sources" based on an average for the month of Wednesday data), except the commercial bank credit series which are based on total outstanding on last Wednesday of month. All additions to the total member bank deposit series and the last Wednesday total loans and investments series are seasonally unadjusted numbers, since data have not been available for a long enough time to make seasonal adjustments.
1/
January - February,
p
Preliminary.
1970 only.
Prospective developments (7)
If the Committee wishes to continue on the policy course
adopted at the March meeting, it may want to renew the second paragraph of the directive issued then, with the addition of a reference to the Treasury financing, as follows (alternative A):
To implement this policy, the Committee desires to see moderate growth in money and bank credit over the months ahead. System open market operations until the next meeting of the Committee shall be conducted with a view to maintaining money market conditions consistent with that objective, TAKING ACCOUNT OF THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING. The path given below for monetary aggregates could be considered as consistent with the directive (data shown are seasonally adjusted monthly average levels in billions of dollars).
It should be stressed
that while we have specified point estimates,variations around these individual estimates are likely and should be acceptable, provided they are not cumulative in one direction. Total
Money
Time
credit proxy
Supply
Deposits
March-
306.0
201.2
194.2
27.7
April
308.0
201.9
197.5
28.1
May
307.0
203.0
199.6
28.0
June
309.6
202.5
201.9
27.8
4-1/2%
2-1/2%
16%
1-1/2%
Adjusted bank
Reserves
Annual rate of in-
crease, second quarter p/
Preliminary.
(8)
The money supply bulge at the end of March is likely
to be followed by rather sharp declines in the money supply over the next few weeks--a development somewhat similar to last January. After this adjustment from the end-of-March bulge, the money supply path turns upward and the average level for June is somewhat greater than in the previous blue book, but with the annual rate of increase a somewhat slower 2-1/2 per cent because of the inflated March average level.
For the adjusted credit proxy, the June average level
is about the same as in the previous blue book. (9)
A weekly pattern spanning the inter-meeting period
consistent with the monthly path of monetary aggregates noted above is shown below (in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted), although it must be recognized, of course, that a weekly pattern is subject to even more random fluctuation than monthly figures. Total Reserves
Adjusted Bank Credit Proxy
Money Supply
Time Deposits
April 12
308.8
204.9
195.6
27.9
April 8
307.9
202.2
196.5
27.8
April 15
307.6
202.3
197.3
28.3
April 22
309.2
201.1
198.0
28.1
April 29
307.7
202.0
198.4
28.2
May 6
307.7
202.2
198.9
28.3
Week Ending
p/
Preliminary.
-8The weekly pattern shown here would lead to an average annual rate of increase from March to April of about 4 per cent for the money supply, 8 per cent for the adjusted proxy, and 20 per cent for time deposits (reflecting in large part strength at the end of March).
A rather
sizable drop in U.S. Government deposits is anticipated in April, and an even larger drop is likely to develop in May.
This does not allow for
the earlier timing of the Federal pay raise, and if the Treasury balance for this or other reasons tends to drop too low, the Treasury may come in for cash borrowing before the second quarter ends, a possibility not allowed for in our projections. (10)
This aggregate pattern for the weeks ahead may require a
Federal funds rate fluctuating in a 7-9 per cent range.
Rates may have
to move to the upper end of the range if short-term interest rates begin to stimulate more rapid growth in time deposits and particularly the adjusted bank credit proxy than is desired.
Net borrowed reserves may
fluctuate in a $650 million--$l.1 billion range, with member bank
borrowings in a $750 million to $1.2 billion range. (11)
The growth path shown for time deposits, both weekly and
over the months ahead, assumes that-the 3-month Treasury bill rate will remain generally withing a 6-1/8--6-5/8 per cent range, and that there will be no significant further decline in other short-term rates.
A
bill rate in that range would appear to be consistent with some slowing of growth in time deposits from the very rapid $800 million per week pace of the latter half of March, which if it were to continue, would lead to an even larger rate of time deposit growth
than the l1
per cent shown above for the second quarter.
In April,
growth in time deposits is expected to slow somewhat as the month progresses, largely as a result of less active CD issuance by banks, as explained below.
In May, payment for the large AT&T bond offer-
ing may also slow down time deposit inflows.
Moreover, the stimulus
from widespread advertising by banks of the new higher ceiling rates on consumer-type time deposits is likely to diminish as time goes on. (12)
Consistent with growth in
proxy held to about a 4-1/2 per cent, quarter,
net growth in
the adjusted bank credit
annual rate,
large CD's and nondeposit sources of funds
are estimated to be around $150 million per week. time deposits in
over the second
relatively sizable volume,
As banks obtain
they are not likely to
add to, and may make further repayments of, relatively high cost Euro-dollar and commercial paper borrowings.
We have not, however,
assumed further significant net repayment of such funds,
partly
because the greater strength now projected for GNP may sustain credit demand.
Even so, growth in
continues quite moderate, in
the adjusted bank credit proxy
largely as a result of a substantial drop
U.S. Government deposits over the quarter as a large Federal
cash surplus is (13)
utilized to retire debt. To keep expansion of banks'
money market liabilities
within the dimensions of the preceding paragraph might require a 3month bill rate in the upper half of the 6-1/8--6-5/8 per cent range
-10-
mentioned earlier, unless the Committee wishes to permit somewhat greater growth in bank credit.
As seasonal downward pressures on
bill rates develop as the quarter progresses, this may mean that the Desk would have to supply less reserves than would otherwise be the case, thus exerting upward pressure on money market rates. There is the possibility that such pressures would lead to a reversal of market expectations that could back up interest rates on a broader scale. (14)
Long-term interest rates over the next few weeks
are not expected to decline much, if at all, in any event.
The
corporate calendar remains large, and, with short-term interest rates remaining around current levels, there is little reason to anticipate that investor expectations of credit easing will induce them to become more willing buyers of long-term debt instruments. Moreover, the Treasury at the end of April will be announcing a refunding of almost $5 billion of publicly-held maturing coupon issues, and if market conditions warrant might also include a prerefunding of about $5-1/2 billion of publicly-held August maturities. Alternative path (15)
If the Committee desires to see somewhat more
growth in money and bank credit over the months ahead, it may wish to consider the following directive language (alternative E);
-11To implement this policy, the Committee desires to see SOMEWHAT MORE moderate growth in money and bank credit over the months ahead THAN SOUGHT AT THE PRECEDING MEETING.
System
open market operations until the next meeting of the Committee shall be conducted with a view to maintaining money market conditions consistent with that objective, TAKING ACCOUNT OF THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING. The following path of the monetary aggregates might be taken to be consistent with this directive. Aajusted proxy
Money Supply
Time Deposits
Total Reserves
MarchR1
306.0
201.2
194.2
27.7
April
308.3
201.9
197.7
28.1
May
307.8
203. 1
200.5
28.1
June
310.9
202. 9
203.4
28.0
6-1/27.
3-1/2%
19%
4-1/2%
Annual rate of increase, second quarter
p/
Preliminary.
Most of the additional expansive effect on the aggregates from this path develops after April.
It is assumed that Desk operations supply more reserves
-12-
than under the previous alternative as April progresses, Treasury bill
rates drop in
and that
the latter part of the month to around
6-1/8 per cent or below as the market comes to sense a further easing in monetary policy at a time when short-term rates may be tending to decline somewhat for seasonal reasons. A weekly pattern over the next several weeks con-
(16)
sistent with this alternative path is shown below. Time Deposits 195.6
Total Reserves 27.9
April 1
Adjusted proxy 308.8
Money Supply 204.9
April 8
307.9
202.2
196.5
27.8
April 15
307.7
202.3
197.4
28.3
April 22
309.3
201.1
198.1
28.1
April 29
308.2
202.1
198.8
28.2
May 6
308.3
202.3
199.4
28.4
p/
p/ Preliminary. With this pattern, the annual rate of increase in April, on average, for the adjusted proxy would be around 10 per cent; for the money supply 4 per cent; and for time deposits 22 per cent.
It is assumed
that banks would use part of the deposit funds obtained to reduce other borrowings. (17)
Under this alternative, money market conditions in April
would, on the whole, be somewhat less firm than under the first alternative.
The Federal funds rate might drop below 7 per cent at
-13times, and generally would not rise much above 8 per cents Member bank borrowings would generally remain under $900 million, and perhaps decline to as little as $60O million.
Net borrowed reserves would
probably fluctuate in a $500-$800 million range. (18)
Long-term interest rates may decline for a time as a
result both of the initial impact on expectations of such an easing in policy and the enhanced ability of banks to acquire securities. However, it is possible that before the end of the second quarter, interest rates could begin to rise again. particularly likely if
Such an outcome would be
there were indications of further easing
fiscal restraints, with a consequent intensification of inflationary expectations and increased anticipatory borrowing.
q
S
Free Borrowings Re erve (In millions of
Period
dollar.for weeks endinnmmin)
T
(nnthl1 .. n cators Federal Funds
FINANCIAL MARKET RELATIONSHIPS IN PERSPECTIVT I
lt
-1u.,I w_ere I' I i-month U S Government Treaaury .. R..
(20 yr )
Re /
I
rio. oi rIow 01 KV,
_ e. we- y Bond Corporate Neu Municipal ""(A (Asues (As)
Yields
[VI ji I'lOW ol { RL%{ lEe[eli • Gong
ronborrowtid 1Rertvte
d
redit
fank
lrsi ii tIsrvs
(dil
(In million of dollr)
I
2/
SaA n nails C iiL avid S A Money, all jnk CIp C-dit an and Money S A pIl lr
y+ t
Tite
oney
Poxy o es ou' lindJ (In billions of dollars)
ftesthl -
491 580 635 844 -1, I 6 -1,078 -lo1
1969--Janury February March April Nay June
July
1970--January February
March p le" Iv 1969--Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1 10 17 24 I
8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26
Feb
Mar
8 46 8 30 8.60*
6 38 6 19 5.81
+160 -351 +137
+ 32
+ 2.
35 45 49 60
7 8 8 8
5 80 5 85 5 85 5.82
- 65
+ 0 7 - 2 1
-2.
6 6 6 6 6
76 65 46 29 50
8 22 810 7 95 7 82 7 87
5 83 580 5 75 5 80 584
+163
01 14 16 44
6 6 6 6
59 66 78 83
8 8 8 8
5 5 5 6
75 78 95 05
7 55 7 75 7 88 7 83 800
6 6 6 6 7
84 80 90 95 04
8 85 8 70 8 76 --- 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
- 997 - 744 -1,006 - 975 - 849
5 99 6 11 6.22 6.03 6 11 6 28 6 27 6 22 6 55 6 50 6 74 6 91
6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8
-
759 916 766
8 98 8 98 7.76
7 87 7 11 6.63
6 92 6 67 6.72
-
818 349 886 9U1
9 8 9 9
57 57 07 61
7 7 7 7
01 09 11 13
6 6 6 6
-1,116 828 -1,129 857 1,01)9
9 II 9 43 9 68 88 8 39
7 7 7 6 7
07 00 02 94 00
-1,0)1
9 07 9 32 8 79 832
7 7 7 7
-
873 925
-1,072
92 91* 37 17 22 59 63 65* 98* 89 32* 75
90* 02* 04 13
13 27* 44 67
-
988 903
17 !t 24
-
946
-
832 576
8 8 9 9 8
7 14 21 28
-
567 788 760 918
8 45 896 9 30 9 04
7 7 7 7
92 88 82 89
6.93 6 89 691 694
8 8 8 8
4 II 18 25
-1,047 - 862 - 861 - 891
9 9 9 8
7 7 6 6
77 36 83 84
692 6 72 6 57 6 61
8 63 8.40 8 32 8 20
4 II p
694 890 671 865
8 32 7.71 7.82
6 89 6.80 6.78
25 p
-
7.45
6.31
6 57 6.68 6 91 6.71
I p
-
688
7.93
6 33
6.64
I
18 p Apr
- 1.2** - 0.3
6 14 6.12 6 02 6 11 6 04 6 44 7 00 6 98 7 09 7 00 7 24 7 82
-
10
1970--Jan.
+103 -112 -182 -270 +134 -183 .430 - 61 +169 -173 +328 +268
30 64 79 41 67 90 61 19 15 00 85 97
-1.045
August September October November Deceuber
58 74 97 00 19 58 61 74 83 80 88 50
6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8
91 75 14 18 71
21 18 39 41
4 -
860 - 779 939
1,110 1.034 1,183
8.22 7 46 8 96
6 67 6 15 7 19
-2 5 + 1.2
-03 - 2,5
+493 -323 -165
- 1.8 - 1.
+ 04
+ 0.6
- 2
- 2.0
+ 2 3
+ 3.3
-0
- 1.0
+0.2 - 0.9
-
-
1 1.9
3 4
-2.3 - 1.0
+370 - 20 +490 -282
+ 2 6
+ 2.6
- 0 1 -02 - 0 2
+0.5 +0.1 +0.5
34 48 57 57 52
+ 41 + 51
+ 1 7 - I 5
+1.5 - 1.6
+220 -143 +361
. U2
- 0.5
- 1.2 + 2.1
-'0.9 + 1.6
41 36 34 39
+ 49
-316 +545 -531
- 0.7 - 0.4
+0.3 -0.9
6.28 6 26 6 24 6 00
- 68
- 1.2 - 0.1
8.25 8.52 8.76 8.74
5 85 5.75 5.84 5.80
8.55
5.90
+ 55 -204 +358 -101 +157
+106 -175 - 7
+ 0 6 -02 + 0 3 -13
+01 - 0 1 +03 -0.2 --
+13 -09 +1 -14
+03 -04 -03 -03 +01
+ 0 2 + 1 0 + 04 -09
-01 -02 +01 +03
+ 0 1 -09 9 + 0 3 -09 + 5 2
+03
-0.5 -04 - 0.5 -25
-0 7 -09 * 0.4 -0 5
+0.5
+ 0.6
+ 0.3
+ 1.5
+ 1.1
-0.6 + 1.6 + 3.1
- 0 4 + 1 3 +27
- I b + 0 7
- 4 0 - 3.5
n.. n.
-
-4
+ 0 3 +0.2 -04
-0.1 -0.5 + 1.0 1 0.4
-0.3 +0.3 +0.6 + 0.6
+0.7 - 0.6 -0.1 + 0.4
+0.4 + 0.3 +0.7 + 0.8
+ 4.6
+0.8
+ 0.1
+ 0.5
-3 1 -32 4
0 -2 - 0 1 + 2.2
+ 1.1 - 0.1 -
-0.9
+1.5 -1.8 + 1.9
+2.5 - 1.1
S
-06
+07
-06 -0 1 + 0 7
- 1.2
1.2
-
- 0.1
+13 3 +02
+01 +02 +03
-0.5
- 0.2 - 0.8
- 11 - 89 -)66
-1.7 -0.8
+ 0 5
--
+3.4
1 08 -05 - 18 42 - 07
+10 +05
+03 3
1.3
-
- 71
1-4 e 6 32 6 12 6 53
7 62 7 20 R (,
5 45 5.01 5 R
-3
0
-3 7 - 2.4
39
:/ 2/ 3/ /
" " p - Preliminary Average of total numbir .f days In period teta' o call pr tarry a 10-vear issues .jariin 5-year and 10-year tall protection, Includes I-ac Time deposts adju Jtdat all commercial bankt a iS change hse for month preceding specified period or in rase of ,*eekl) periods, the 'irst week sho n
**
-
Reflcts
- 4 6 -2 7
-2
5-
Aver Tear 1969 Parsto11 1969 Seood Ralf 1969
41 41 32 60
4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6
$400 million reduction in member bank deposits resulting from withdrawal Percentage annual rates are adjusted to eliminate this break in series
of a large country hlan
S A
6
- Seasonally adjusted
from Systen membership. April
1,
1970
12
+25 + 4.3 + 0.6
-5 3 -4.0 -6 7
Table 1 (Dollar
amount
in
MARGINAL RESERVE MEASURES millions, based on period average SMember
Free
reserves
r
Banks R e s e r v e
Excess
reserves
of daily figures)
Total
Major banks Outside N Y.
N.Y.
_____8
Borrowing C t
s
Other O
Country
Monthly (reserves weeks ending in):
1969--January February March April May June July August September October November December
- 477 - 580 - 635 - 844 -1.116 -1,078 -1,045 - 997 - 744 - 995 - 975 - 849
359 256 202 187 243 277 266 214 282 195 238 278
836 836 837 1,031 1,359 1,355 1,311 1,211 1,02b 1,190 1,213 1,127
131 62 58 85 123 57 89 81 83 106 120 268
302 255 233 411 346 459 250 253 236 327 387 310
149 215 254 260 397 288 364 256 222 293 250 220
253 304 293 275 493 550 608 621 485 464 456 329
1970--January February March p
-
759 916 766
169 210 115
928 1,126 881
148 106 111
287 317 223
232 289 265
261 414 282
3 10 17 24
-
838 349 886 901
402 391 132 204
1,240 740 1,018 1,105
57 64 128 83
286 39 331 306
233 172 136 328
664 465 423 388
1 8 15
-1,116 - 828 -1,129
320 139 218
1,436 967 1,347
95 170 210
531 112 396
257 267 302
553 418 439
22
-
857
158
1,015
--
275
344
396
29
-1,099
80
1,179
53
322
293
511
296 371
1,328 1.244
121 350
422 296
295 189
490 409
--
Weekly: 1969--Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
-1,032 - 873
5 12 19
-
925
146
1,071
260
421
26
-1,072
138
1,210
8
438
260
504
Dec.
3 10 17 24 31
-
988 903 946 832 576
203 297 98 264 528
1,191 1,200 1,044 1,096 1,104
266 293 164 296 319
307 264 296 356 334
241 264 301 150 153
379 379 296 292 299
1970--Jan.
7 14 21 28
-
567 788 760 918
285 77 203 112
852 865 963 1,030
196 234 75 86
327 281 340 200
87 188 296 358
243 162 252 386
Feb.
4 11 18
-1,047 - 862 - 861
211 207 249
1,258 1,069 1,110
75 130 218
383 351 261
317 267 246
25
-
893
172
1,065
--
271
329
465
4 11 p 18 p 2 5 p
-
638 890 671 865
198 44 146 71
836 934 817 936
32 169 146 97
46 349 209 289
419 191 193 255
339 225 269 295
1 p
-
688
262
950
232
264
161
293
Mar.
Apr.
p -
Preliminary.
390
i
1 1
481 321 385
(In
Seser a Total Reserves
Period
r v
A
g
Table 2 AGGREGATERESERVE AND MONETARYVARIABLES Retrospective Changes, Seasonally Adjusted per cent, annual rates based on monthly averages of daily figures) re
Nonborrowed Reserves
a
es Hequired Reserves
i Total ember Ban Deo Deposits
- onetary y
v V r i a b es S u p p I v
'g ., in T
otOl
Ut
urrency
Demand ( Private 8 posits Sjusted
Annually 1%8 1969 Semin-annually 1st Half 1969 2nd RalH 1969
+78 - 1.6
+60
-30
+90 - 4.0
t 72 + 2 5
+ 0 7 S+0 -39
- 37 -2 4
- 3.5 S46
+ 4 +25 +06
+55 +87 +68 + 7 1
+69 +78 + 7.6 +66
+54 +8.) +6.8
+ 6.5 + 6 3 +63 + 3.6 + 6.2
+323
+ 7.0
+ 2.1
1
+ 1 5
+ 6 5 +465
+ +153 7
+6
Quarterly 1st 2nd )rd 4th
Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter
1968 1968 1968 1968
+111 1 + + 2.1 + 5.3
+ 7.3 + 1.4 +1J.6 +12.7
Ist 2nd 3rd 4th
Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter
1969 1969 1969 1%96
-2 8 -4 7 - 4.8 -0 1
- 4.8 - 2.2 - 9,4 + 0 1 +01
+4 1 + 4 5
1st Quarter
1970
- 0.8
+ 0.4
+1.2
-69
- 5.2
+ +090 9 +12 3 +13 8 +22.4 + 8.3
+ 2.z
+ 5.9 +11.0 + 9.0 + 8 9 +89 + 8.9 + 2,5 + 2.5 +11.3 + 7 4
+ + + + +
- 3.2 - 1.2 -ln.I + 49 - 1.2 -10.2 -18.9 -II 3 + 1 7 - 9 2 + 9 7 +17 -92 +97
+ 6.2 + 3.1 +31
+ + + + +
- 4.2 - 8.0 +13.6
+15 0
+ 1 2
+71
*74 + 5.8
+37 - 0
9
+70
+
2
+42 -13
Monthly 1968--April May June July
Auguet September October Noveber December 1969--J nuary February
+92 + 1.3 + 5.3
+
4
5
-4.9
March
-Sn
April May June July
-12 0 + 6.0
--828 2
August
- 2.8
September October ovember December
+ 7 7 -17 9 + 5.5 +12.1
9l7O--January February Harch p
p - Prelimlnary
+ 7.2
-15.6 + 6.2
+ 7.3 + 9.4 +22.2 + 8.8 +13 3 +11.5 +13.0
5.8 8.7 8.7 5.7 8.6
+85 + 2.8 +11.2 + 5,6
+12 + 7 IV I + + 1 22 +4
2.8 8 3 8.2 2.7 8 1
+50
+12 3 +98
+ 8 9. + 1.6 +2.4
+11.3 + 7.2 + 7.1 + 16
+1.6 +10 2 -16 - 1 6 + 3.1
+ 1.6 -4 7
+ 6 +18
+ 5 4 +80 - 2.6 +10.6 + 7.9
+ 9.0 -10.7 +11.4
+ 5.2 + 7.8 + 7.8
+10.1 -15.5 +11.8
- I 8
I
- 0.8
-08 - 1,6 + 2.3
CJaercial b-nk to time hnk deposits ...... ..
Credit Proxy + Eurod-( liars + other nondep
ure
t
TUnd
AGGREGATE (Based Reserve Aggregates 5/ Period
Monthly 9 8 1 6 -- January February March April May lune July August September 0( tuber November December S969-- lanuarv February March April May June July August i. t umber 11 roler
November December 1170-- lapuary Fpbruary Marlh p
Total reserves (In
Nonborrowcd reserves
Required reserves
~----
millions of dol) rs)
Table RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABIES Seasonally Adjusted
on monthly averages
of daily figures)
Member Bank hietsits b y .a, e i i. Suinnrfrl eber.r ves 1u ppl'otu .i Prlvat. U.S. Cov't Toral im mb ui.nund or eand dmand me r bank deposts Itie ut1 1 de oits ". nTib pIt (i r b lions
26, 134 26, 352 26, 451 26, 298 26, 353 26, 547 26 715 27, 213 27, 311 27. 504 27,685 27,964
25,818 25,961 25,755 25,606 25,626 25,889 26,186 26,675 26,860 27.066 27,095 27,215
25,7 74 25,9 89 26 0'78 25,9 64 25.9 52 26.1 96 26,4 02 1 26,8 93 26,9 51 27 1 a«, 27,376 27,609
275. 1 277.4 278.5 277.3 277.8 279.5 281.7 286.9 289.0 292.2 295 0 298.2
149.9 150.2 151.2 151.3 151.5 151.8 153.8 156.5 158.9 161.5 163.5 165.8
119.7 120.1 '?1.6 12n.8
28,139 28,060 27,972 27,775 28,235 28,056 27,530 27,401 27.402 '7, 154
27 902 27 812 27,729 27.614 27.942 27 742 27,334 27,161 27 I'4 27 12" 27 '8 27,707
297.0 296.7 294.2 295 4 295. I 292.6 28h I0
128.4 1. 1 124.9 12C.4 I 10.0 '30.5
'8, / 28 28 285 8
163.2 161.0 160.5 160.1 159.3 158.1 155.1 152.5 152.1 151.
27,428
27,318 27,206 27,024 26,754 26,888 26,705 26 275 26,214 26, 18) '6 210 26 538 26,806
151.5
28,001 27,722 27,694
26,966 26,615 26,752
27,823 27,521 27,5 5
284.8 282.9 286. 1
149.4 148.8 150.5
2'
7)
individuals,
par nership,
Commercial bank time Private deposits lotal demand adjusted I Curreny 2 idA 4/ d posits 3 2 1 a r s of d o M oney Supply
5.4 7.1 6.7 5.2 3.7 3.9 2.7 4.8 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.2
182.6 18 .3 184.2 185.1 186.8 188.2 189 6 191.0 191.4 191.8 193.6 194.8 195.8 196.3 196.8 148.1 198.1 l'8.J )99.0 199 3 199 0 1.9) 0 199. 1
< I.2
5.4 6.7 4.8 5.9 5.9 4.0 2.4 2.9 4.4 3.1 '.6 4.9
't.5 129.8
5.3 5.6 5.8
12' .8 125.2 125.6 12..8 125.7 12 .8 128.2
24. ? . 2 .2
I
Private demand deposits include domestic deposits of Includes currency outside the Treasury, the Federal
I
40.6 40.7 41.1 41 3 41.6 41.9 42 1 42 4 42.7 42.8 43.2 43.4 41.8 44.1 44.2
4*4.5 45 II 45.3 .5.6 4 .J -5 9
4b.l S46.4 46.7
l201. 201.2
142.0 142.6 143.2 143.8 145.3 146.3 147.5 148.6 148.8 149.1 150.5 151.4
184.1 185.8 187.2 187.7 188.2 188.6 191.1 193.8 196.4 199.4 202.1 204.9
152 J 152 5 152.6 154 0 153 8 154.2 154 , 153 8 15J 7
151.7
203.2 202.4 202.3 202.3 201.7 200.8 197.7 194.5 194.1 193.5 9 '.4 194.1
155.0 153.0 154.5
192.1 192.0 194.2
Credt Proxy + Euro-dollars + other nondep. Isources of F.nT
307.5 305.7 303.8 J04.2 302.2 J05 .5 305.7 304.8
10Q.5 306.0
I
rz 14 r,orations and net interbank deposits
Reserve, and the vaults .1 . commercial banks, Includes (1) demand deposits at all commercial banks, other than those due 1, me't a commercial banks and the U S Government, le process of collection and Federal Reserve float, and (2) foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve Banks Government time deposits Excludes interbank and U S Includes increases in required reserves due to changes in Regulations M and D of approximately $400 million since October 16, 1969.
ss cash items in
Table 4 AGGREGATERESERVES AND MONETARYVARIABLES Seasonally Adjusted
Ik r l
P
... It
od
T
N
Tot i
1969--'Sept
0
S
3 10 17 24
[
27 409 27,325 27 370 27 236
,
Notbntl r
It,
1. 1. 1
rfaf1 ' 1 (In
.Menber r... nt iLctr
Supported Tor
d
t jtitbnd - I ' I
1
rmnii ntlv
111111 ~Jrei trb
m.
nIltl oin 1i d 1 11 ) 26,194 26,957 26,687 27,059 26,164 27.238 26 199 26,982
8 nk Deposi. by
J-
klultrd
t
Privotd a 1'. :W 1, dep.si. i
s
d
l
hI
I
SPrivte lotLl r
4,.1
45 5 45.1 45 J 45.3
1.8 .0 2.7 3.1 3.2
198.3 199.6 198.7 199.9 198.5
45 2 45.4 45 6 45.7 45 7
151.9 151.9 152.0 152.2
284.2 283 7 281.9 284.1 283.4
152.3 151.9 151.4 151.3 151.2
128.1 128.8 127.8 129.7 129.1
286.0 285 9 285.7 285 5
151.3 151.0 151.0 151.1
129.3 129.0 12:.2 129.1
5.5 5.9 5.5 5.3
198.7 199.7 200.1 199.2
287 2 285.7 285 5 284.3 286.2
151.3 151.4 151.7 151.8 151.3
129.8 128.7 128.5 127.6 131.3
6,1 3.5 5.2 5.0 3.7
286.2 285.0 284.8
150.6 149.7 149.2
I
I I
iy CLurre S
I doll 199,5 I'.3l 199.6 198.3
( I n 130,7 129.7 129.8 128.6
285 8 283.7 287 1 285.0
Consnercsal Crcdlt Ftooy + Commercial'Crnait Proxy + bank time Eur -dollars + deposits Iother nond.p. adjusted soiires of dimdnd Ifund. 4/ 3 d,
MonL0y - S( l
HR-t, 1
.l 2.2 >.2
posits
, ) 54.0 154.2 154.3 153.0
304.3 302.3 305.7 303.4
153.1 154.3 153.0 154.3 152.8
194.3 193.9 193.6 193.3 193.4
302.4 301.9 300.7 J03.2 302.1
45.7 45.8 45.9 45.9
153.0 153.9 154.2 153.2
193.3 193.1 193.2 193.5
304.7 305.2 305.3 305.8
199.3 198.4 198.7 197.8 203,0
45.9 46.0 46.1 46.2 45.8
153.3 152.4 152.7 151.6 157.2
193.8 193.8 194.1 194.3 193.9
307.3 305.9 305.4 304.5 306.1
4.0 4.7 5.3 6.8
202.5 202.1 201.6 199.1
45.7 46.0 46.1 46.3
156.8 156.1 155.5 152.8
193.2 192.3 191.9 191.4
30.4 305.0 305.3 304.4
152.7 152.2 153.1 153.4
191.1 191.4 192.0 192.6
303.3 303.2 303.3 303.8
8 15 22 29
27 27 27 27 27
717 233 260 547 238
26,32 26.291 25,975 26,520 25,98
Nov
5 12 19 26
27 655 27 565 27 951 27,897
26,359 26,339 26.829 26,547
27,360 27,354 27,732 27,637
ec
3 10 17 24 31
27 839 I 2. ,041 28,020 27 790 27,894
26,588 26,641 26,861 26,718 27,099
27,646 27.619 27.946 27,576 27,713
7 14 21
28,11 28,009 1 8,061
27.,148 27,137 27,048
27,791 27,939 27.918
28
27,8J7
26,682
27.685
284.0
148.6
31.6 130.6 130.3 128,7
4 11 18 25
27,959 27 739 27,705 27,597
26,614 26,720 26,545 26,538
27,724 27,549 27,512 27,449
282.8 282.7 282.7 283.2
148.4 148.4 148.8 149.1
128.6 127.9 128.6 128.8
5.8 6.4 5.3 5 4
199.0 198.1 199.5 199.9
46.3 46.3 46.4 46.4
Flar
4 II p 18 p 25 p
27,697 27,491 27,708 27 728
26,711 26,507 26 865 26,764
27,394 27.404 27,537 27,689
283.8 285.3 284.7 286.3
149.6 150.0 1 150.3 151,0
129.3 129.0 128.6 129.7
4 6.4 5.8 5.7
200.6 200.0 199.9 200.3
46 5 46.6 46.7 46.8
154.2 153.4 153.2 153.6
193.0 193.3 194.0 194.8
304.1 105.2 304.8 306.1
pr
I p
27 871
26,921
27,598
289.4
151.6
132.1
5.7
204.9
46.9
158.0
195.6
308.8
1970--1 an
eb
1
27,417 27,044 27,059 27.263 27,041
1 I
i ,
1
1
'
1
I -
I
Private demand deposits include demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporation, and not Interbank deposits Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the vaults of all commercial banks Includes currency ourst banks and the U S Government, leIs , lomer,l those due to domteart ti(ts l hnks, other than ,nnorl t -/ des (I) demand dte, Inru process of collection and Federal Reserve float, and (2) foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve banks. Government time deposits Excludes Interbank and US 5/ Includes Increases in required reserves due to changes in Regulations M and D of approximately $400 million since October 16, 1969. p - Preliminary
1/ 2/
4/
I
194.0 193.9 194.2 194.0
I
the
fII
I cash Item in
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (1970, April 6). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19700407
@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19700407,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Bluebook},
year = {1970},
month = {Apr},
howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19700407},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}