Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

1970

May 1,

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent Developments (1)

Both the money supply and the adjusted bank credit proxy

have grown at a faster pace from March to April on average than was indicated as consistent with the target path adopted at the last FOMC

meeting.

At present,

the money supply is estimated to have increased

in April at a 12.5 per cent annual rate, compared with a 4.0 per cent rate specified earlier.

And the average annual rate of growth of the

adjusted proxy for the month is

estimated at about 14 per cent,

compared

with a rate of 8 per cent indicated earlier. (2)

The greater strength in the money supply resulted mainly

from a private demand deposit bulge at the end of March--partly reflecting statistical aberrations--that turned out to be larger than estimated on the basis of preliminary data available at the previous FOMC meeting. Subsequently, more than two-thirds of the bulge eroded, but this was not quite as rapid a pace as earlier anticipated.

The higher average level

of the money supply also appeared to be related to a larger than expected demand for cash balances (for more detail see paragraph (7)). appeared to be growing more than expected

in early April,

Time deposits

but around

mid-month time deposit growth showed a pronounced slowing reflecting in part the recent rise in short-term interest rates.

Treasury

rates (on an investment yield basis) generally moved

bill

back above ceiling rates on large CD's in the latter part of the Growth in deposits was associated,

month.

on the asset side of

bank balance sheets, with bank financing of an advanced level of Government securities dealers'

Treasury bill

positions in

late

March and early April and in bank acquisitions of municipal securities.

Weekly Path of Monetary Aggregates Compared with Estimated Results Adj. Cred. Proxy Current Apr. 7 Estimate Target

Money Supply Current Apr. 7 Estimate Target

Weekly April 1

308.8

310.1

204.9

206.8

8

307.9

311.0

202.2

204.7

15

307.6

309.4

202.3

203. 82 203.8

22

309.2

309.9

201.1

202.5-/

29

307.9

308.6-1

202.0

203. 0-

March

306.0

306.2

201.2

201.5

April

308.1

309.8

201.9

203.6

p

/2

Monthly averages

Annual rates of change: March to April

8.2%

14.17.

4.2%

12.5%

P/ Preliminary. e/ Estimated. (3)

Soon after the April 7 meeting it

became clear that the

money supply and adjusted bank credit proxy paths were running ahead

-3of the desired patterns for April and also, though to a lesser extent, for the second quarter as a whole (which was taken to be midway between the paths of alternatives A and B in the previous blue book).

Conse-

quently, the Desk moved toward achieving a somewhat firmer atmosphere in the money market.

Over the 4 statement weeks ending April 29, the

Federal funds rate averaged about 8-1/8 per cent, compared with an average of 7-3/4 per cent in the preceding 4-week period. rates rose commensurately to 9 per cent or above.

Dealer loan

Over the same period

weekly average net borrowed reserves fluctuated in a wide $300-$950 million range, while average member bank borrowings ranged between about $500 million and $1 billion--but toward the upper end of these ranges in the later weeks of the period.

As money market conditions tightened, both

the adjusted credit proxy and the money supply moved back toward the April 7 target path, as can be seen (in the table above) from the narrowing differences as the month progressed between current estimates and target levels. (4)

The increase in the cost of day-to-day funds came at

a time when dealer bill inventories were very large and when market demands for bills were not strengthening as much as expected.

Moreover,

the market interpreted the rise in day-to-day financing rates as indicating that the System's concern with monetary aggregates might lead to tighter credit conditions than had been earlier anticipated.

Under

these circumstances, and with the outlook for the economy also appearing a little stronger and fiscal policy seeming to shift toward less restraint, dealers sought aggressively to lighten their positions.

Treasury bill for example,

rates adjusted sharply higher;

the 3-month Treasury bill,

was most recently bid around 6.85 per cent,

some 40 basis

points higher than its April 7 level, while the 6-month and 1-year bills were about 7.20 per cent, representing a rise of around 8C-90 basis points. (5)

Long-term market interest rates since early April have

risen under the influences noted above combined with a continuing record volume of new issues.

Yields on corporate,municipal and long-

term U.S. Government securities are now close to their 1969 highs. The upward adjustment in yields in the Treasury coupon market also reflected anticipation of the Treasury refunding of about $5 billion of publicly-held mid-May maturing issues at a time when the market was somewhat uncertain as to the meaning of "even keel".

The Treasury

announced a "rights" exchange into two outstanding intermediate-term issues--one maturing in

three years (and

priced to yield 7.98 per cent)

and the other in just under seven years (yielding 8 per cent)--plus a simultaneous cash offering of $3-1/2 billion of a 7-3/4 per cent 18-month note, priced to yield almost 7.80 per cent.

The short note

is being offered with 50 per cent tax and loan credit. (6)

The following table summarizes recent seasonally adjusted

annual rates of change in major reserve, deposit and credit aggregates in comparison with selected earlier periods:

Past Year (April over April) /

Past 6 months (April over October) /

Past 3 months (April over January) p/

April,

-0.1

4.4

2.3

19.0

Nonborrowed Reserves

0.4

6.6

4.9

22.9

Money Supply

2.8

4.5

5.0

12.5

-2.2

4.4

11.9

Total Reserves

Time and savings deposits Savings accounts at nonbank thrift institutions

1/ 2.1-

1/ 2.1-

1/ 5.4-

21.6

n.a.

Member bank deposits and related sources of funds Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy)

-1.7

4.9

10.7

17.6

Proxy plus Euro-dollars

-1.0

3.1

5.4

14.9

Proxy plus Euro-dollars and other nondeposit sources

n.a.

4.4

6.6

14.1

1.1

1.5

3.7

4.5

n.a.

2.5

4.6

4.4

Commercial bank credit (month end) Total loans and investments of all commercial banks L&I plus loans sold outright to affiliates and foreign branches

NOTE:

All items are average of daily figures (with "other nondeposit sources" based on an average for the month of Wednesday data), except the commercial bank credit series which are based on total outstanding on last Wednesday of month. All additions to the total member bank deposit series are seasonally unadjusted numbers, since data have not been available for a long enough time to make seasonal adjustments.

1/

Through March 1970 only.

/

n.a.

Preliminary.

Not available.

Prospective Developments (7)

If

the Committee wishes to continue on the policy course

adopted at the previous meeting, it

may wish to renew the second para-

graph of the directive issued then, with certain modifications, as follows: To implement this policy, the Committee desires to see moderate growth in the months ahead.

money and bank credit over

System open market operations until

the next meeting of the Committee shall be conducted

with a view to maintaining BANK RESERVES AND money market conditions consistent with that objective, taking account of the CURRENT

[DEL:forthcoming] Treasury

financing. Moderate growth in money and bank credit at the last meeting of the Committee appeared to encompass an annual rate of increase for the money stock of around 3 per cent over the second quarter and a 5-1/2 per cent annual rate of growth for the adjusted bank credit proxy--

although comments at the Committee meeting indicated that a reasonable range of variation around such a growth path was tolerable.

Develop-

ments since the last meeting of the Committee suggest that the demand for money in the second quarter, at the given prospective growth in GNP,

may have been underestimated.

money growth,

interest rates,

If

so,

the interrelationships among

and bank credit expansion contemplated

-7at the time of the previous meeting may not be mutually consistent--but, in view of short-run instabilities in financial flows, it is extremely difficult to evaluate how permanent emerging relationships may prove to be.

Money demand may be larger than assumed partly because of greater

demands for precautionary balances on the part of the public in an uncertain financial market atmosphere, particularly as reflected in the stock market, and perhaps, as the quarter progresses,because of greater transitory holdings of cash balances as a result of the Government pay raise and retroactive social security payments to the public. (8)

If in fact the demand for money is stronger than previously

assumed, maintenance of the April 7 target path for money for the second quarter would imply higher interest rates and,therefore, smaller bank credit expansion than targeted on April 7.

Conversely,

maintenance

of the April 7 target path for bank credit would imply more rapid growth in money and lower levels of interest rates.

Given below for

Committee consideration is an adjusted set of target paths which compromises between these alternatives by allowing for somewhat greater growth in money and somewhat slower growth in bank credit than called for at the April 7 meeting.

-8Adjusted Bank Credit Proxy As of Adjust:ed April 7 Path

Money Supply As of Adjusted April 7 Path

Total Reserves As of Adjusted April 7 Path

Levels in billions of dollars March April May June

3u6.0 308.1 307.3 310.2

201.2 2u1.9 203.1 202.7

306.2 309.8 3u7.8 309.2

201.5 203.6 204.2 203.5

27.7 28.1 28.1 27.8

Annual percentage rat:es of change (rounded to nearest half March April May June

10 8 - 3 11.5

Second Quarter

5.5

27.7 28.2 27.9 27.8 per cent |

10.5 14 - 7.5 5.5

11.5 4 7 - 2.5

13 12.5 3.5 - 4

- 1 18 -2.5 -10.5

-- 19 - 11 -6.5

1/ 4

3

1/ 47

1.5

0.5

I/ March includes 4 days in which transactions through foreign agencies and Edge corporations reduced cash items and thus raised the reported money supply. June will not include such a period. An adjustment to remove the resulting bias in the rate of change over the second quarter would add about 1 percentage point to the quarterly rates shown in table. (9)

The adjusted pattern shown in the paragraph above allows

for greater money stock growth over the quarter as a whole than earlier. But in

May and June money stock growth drops off sharply,

reflection

of the reduction in

partly in

outstanding money stock that has been

occurring over the course of April as the late March bulge has been worked off and, in June, partly because of a rise in U.S. Government deposits.

In contrast to somewhat greater growth in

over the quarter,

the money stock

the adjusted bank credit proxy rises 1-1/2 percentage

points less than specified earlier.

This growth rate for the proxy

assumes that Treasury bill rates decline from current advanced levels

-9into a range of about 6-1/2 -now and mid-year.

6-3/4 per cent for the 3-month bill

between

It is conceivable that the 3-month bill rate might drop

temporarily lower in

this interval because of transitory supply scarcities,

but it is likely that longer bill

rates would not decline as much as short

rates over the period ahead since that area of the market will be influenced by the $3-1/2 billion of 18 month notes being offered for cash by the Treasury. (10)

A weekly path for the May monetary aggregates consistent

with the monthly "adjusted path" shown in

paragraph (8)

would be as

follows: Week Ending

Adjusted Bank Credit Proxy

Money Supply

Time Deposits

Total Reserves

e/ April 296 13 20 27

May

eJ

308.6

203.0

198.4

28.1

308.3 307.6 307.5 307.9

203.0 203.9 204.6 205.0

198.7 198.8 198.9 199.2

28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7

Estimated from partial data. (11)

The weekly pattern shown above assumes that "even Keel"

considerations will be important until the mid-May settlement date for the Treasury financing. remain in

Thus,

the Federal funds rate is

expected to

the 8 to 8-1/2 per cent range that has prevailed recently.

After the even keel period,

somewhat more fluctuation in

funds rate may be expected,

perhaps in a 7 to 9 per cent range,

Desk reacts to possible off-target developments in Net borrowed reserves may fluctuate widely in range,

the Federal as the

the monetary aggregates.

an $0.5 to $1.0 billion

with member bank borrowing in a $0.6 to $1.1 billion range.

-10-

(12)

The weekly behavior of the monetary aggregates and

money market conditions subsequent to the even keel period will depend heavily on the results of the Treasury financing.

The weekly path of

assumes an attrition

aggregates shown in paragraph (10)

of $2.5 billion

(or a shade above 50 per cent); net new cash borrowing by the Treasury, therefore,

would amount to $1.0 billion.

If

the attrition

the Treasury obtains less new cash than estimated,

is

larger and

a different weekly

pattern in the path of the aggregates would be likely, with money supply perhaps strengthening as Government deposits increase less than expected, (13)

Time deposit growth over the quarter is

significantly slower than contemplated increase in

four weeks ago.

likely to be The rate of

such deposits would be expected to diminish sharply to about

a 5-1/2 per cent annual rate in May and June from the rapid 18 per cent March-April rate.

Banks would not be able to attract much in

the way

of additional domestic CD money at the interest rate levels noted above. Consumer-type time deposits are still but growth is

likely to be a source of funds,

estimated to be modest in

AT&T issue and in

light of the need to pay for the

view of the competition from the new 18-month Treasury

cash issue (which is

sold in

minimum denominations of $1,000).

time deposit pattern implicit in in paragraph (8) is shown below:

The

the target path for bank credit suggested

-11Time and Savings Deposits Levels ($ billion)

Annual rate of change

194.3 197.8 198.9 199.6

14.4 21.5 6.5 4

March April May June

11

Second Quarter

(14)

With time deposit growth more constrained,

banks once

again will probably be adding to nondeposit sources of funds--perhaps at around a $100 million per week rate for Euro-dollar and commercial paper taken together.

Since these are relatively costly funds,

extent to which they will in

however,

the

fact add to such borrowings would appear to

depend heavily on loan demands.

Loan growth is

assumed to strengthen

from the relatively weak pattern indicated for March and April partly because the 8 per cent prime rate has become relatively more attractive to borrowers. (15)

Given the adjusted pattern of monetary aggregates,

it

is likely that the pressure of credit demand in long-term markets will keep bond yields at relatively advanced levels through mid-year.

Recep-

tion of the Treasury financing will be an important factor affecting credit markets; options in

for instance,

an unusually strong aversion to the longer

the exchange would suggest that even current market rates are

not sustainable.

On the other hand,

and the Treasury financing is rates to edge down,

once the AT&T offering is

digested,

particularly if

settled

there may be room for longer-term

some of the recent pressures in short-

term markets abate and banks are not inhibited from active participation in the municipal securities markets.

Table 1 MARGINAL RESERVE MEASURES (Dollar amounts in millions, based on period averages of daily figures) Member Period Period

free Free reserves

I i

Exess Excess reserves

IReserve Total

Banks Borr owings C R e se r v e ty y C i t Major banks Other Outside N Y. 8 N.Y.

i CountrN

Monthly (reserves weeks ending in): 1969--January February March April May June July August September October November December

- 477 - 580 - 635 - 844 -1,116 -1,078 -1,045 - 997 - 744 - 995 - 975 - 849

359 256 202 187 243 277 266 214 282 195 238 278

836 836 837 1,031 1,359 1,355 1,311 1,211 1,026 1,190 1,213 1,127

131 62 58 85 123 57 89 81 83 106 120 268

302 255 233 411 346 459 250 253 236 327 387 310

149 215 254 260 397 288 364 256 222 293 250 220

253 304 293 275 493 550 608 621 485 464 456 329

1970--January February March April p

-

759 916 751 726

169 210 129 140

928 1,126 880 866

148 106 90 227

287 317 225 331

232 289 287 120

261 414 278 188

3 10 17 24

-

838 349 886 901

402 391 132 204

1,240 740 1,018 1,105

57 64 128 83

286 39 331 306

233 172 136 328

664 465 423 388

Oct.

1 8 15 22 29

-1,116 - 828 -1,129 - 857 -1,099

320 139 218 158 80

1,436 967 1,347 1,015 1,179

95 170 210 -53

531 112 396 275 322

257 267 302 344 293

553 418 439 396 511

Nov.

5 12 19 26

-1,032 - 873 - 925 -1,072

296 371 146 138

1,328 1,244 1,071 1,210

121 350 -8

422 296 390

295 189 260

490 409 421

438

260

504

3 10 17 24 31

-

988 903 946 832 576

203 297 98 26L. 528

1,191 1,200 1,044 1,096 1,104

266 293 164 296 319

307 264 296 356 334

241 264 301 150 153

379 379 296 292 20

7 14 21 28

-

567 788 760 918

285 77 203 112

852 865 963 1,030

196 234 75 86

327 281 340 200

87 188 296 358

24162 252 386

Feb.

-4 11 18 25

-1,047 - 862 - 861 - 893

211 207 249 172

1,258 1,069 1,110 1,065

75 130 218 --

383 351 261 271

317 267 246 329

483 321 385 465

Mar.

4 11 18 25

-

638 861 667 840

198 71 150 96

836 932 817 936

32 169 146 11

46 349 216 289

419 190 185 357

339 224 270 279

1 8 15 p 22 p 29 p

-

610 317 946 833 925

339 179 74 138 -32

949 496 1,020 971 893

232 -322 517 63

264 269 509 252 361

161 49 48 83 260

292 178 141 119 209

Weekly: 1969--Sept.

Dec.

1970--Jan

Apr.

p - Preliminary.

VARIABLES AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY Retrospective Changes, Seasonally Adjusted (In per cent, annual rates based on monthly averages of daily figures) Re Total

Period

e rvt

Rarves

e

Ag

Monetary y Mo

retes Required Reservesss

onborrowed Reserves

Total Member ank

Total e DepositP

S u pp

Variable l y Demand rivte

Currency

mrercial bank time deposits adjusted aDposit

Credit Proxy + Euro-dllar + other nondep sources ol tunds

Annually 1968 1969

+ 7.8 - 1.6

+ 6.0 - 3.0

+ 7.9 - 1.2

+ 9.0 - 4.0

+ 7.2 + 2.5

+ 7.4 + 5 8

+ 7 1 + 1.S

+11 5 - 5.3

Semi-annually let Half 1969 2nd Half 1969

+ 0.7 - 3.9

- 3.7 - 2.4

+ 1.0 - 3.3

- 3.5 - 4.6

+ 4.3 + 0.6

+ 6.5 + 4.9

+ 3 7 - 0 6

- 4.0 - 6.7

Quarterly 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter

+ 7.9 + 1.5 +11.5 + 9.6

+ 1.1 + 2.1 +15.0 + 5.3

+ 7.5 + 1.8 +11.5 + 9.8

+ 7.3 + 1.4 +13.6 +12.7

+ + + +

5.5 8.7 6.8 7.1

+ + + +

6 9 7.8 7 6 6 6

+ + + +

5 4 8.7 6 8 7 0

+ 7 6 + 3.0 +16 5 +17 3

+ + +

1.7 0.2 8.6 2.0

+

4.8 2.2 9.4 0.1

+ 4.1 + 4.5 -+ 1 2

+ + + +

6 6 3 6

5 3 6 2

+ 3 2 + 4.2 - 1 3 --

- 5.1 - 3 0 -13.3 --

n a. - 4.0 + 2.0 + 0.7

1968 1968 1968 1968

n.a n.e.

-

n a. 1.2

lst Quarter 1969 2nd Quarter 1969 3rd Quarter 1969 4th Quarter 1969

+ + +

0.1 1.2 9.3 1.4

- 2.8 - 4.7 - 4.8 -'0.1

let Quarter 1970 p

-

2.9

- 0.4

-

2,5

+ 0.5

+ 3.8

+ 7.0

+ 2.9

+ 0.4

Monthly 1968--April May June July August September October November December

- 6.9 + 2.5 + 8.8 + 7.6 +22.4 + 4.3 + 8.5 + 7.9 +12.1

- 6.9 + 0.9 +12.3 +13.8 +22.4 + 8.3 + 9.2 + 1.3 + 5.3

- 5.2 - 0.6 +11.3 + 9.4 +22.3 + 2.6 +10.4 + 8.4 +10.2

- 5.2 + 2.2 + 7.3 + 9.4 +22.2 + 8.8 +13.3 +11.5 +13.0

+ 5.9 +11.0 + 9.0 + 8.9 + 8.9 + 2.5 + 2.5 +11.3 + 7.4

+ 5.8 + 8 7 4 8 7 + 5.7 + 8 6 + 8 5 + 2.8 411.2 + 5.6

+ 5 0 +12.3 + 8 3 + 9.8 + 8.9 + 1.6 4 2.4 +11.3 + 7.2

+ 3 2 + 3.2 4 2.6 +15 9 +17 0 +16.1 +18.3 41b.2 +16.6

1969--January February March April Hay June July August September October November December

+ 7.5 - 3.4 - 3.8 - 8.5 +19.9 - 7.6 -22.5 - 5.6 -11.7 + 9.7 + 6.3

+ 4.5 - 4.9 - 8.0 -12.0 + 6.0 - 8.2 -19.3 - 2.8 + 7.7 -17.9 + 5.5 +12.1

+12.7 - 3.0 - 4.4 - 5.0 +14.3 - 8.6 -17.6 - 7.6 - 0.8 -10.4 + 9.3 + 6.9

- 3.2 - 1.2 -I1.1 + 4.9 - 1.2 -10.2 -18.9 -11.3 + 1.7 - 9.2 + 9.7 --

+ + + + + + + -

6.2 3.1 3.1 7.9 1.2 4 2 1.8 1.8 -+ 0.6 + 1.2 + 1.8

+ 2.8 + 8 3 + 8.2 + 2.7 + 8 1 + 8.1 + 5.4 + 8.0 - 2.6 +10.6 + 7.9 --

+ 7.1 + 1.6 + 1.6 +10.2 - 1 6 + 3.1 + 1.6 - 4.7 - 0.8 - 0 8 - 1.6 + 2.3

-10.0 - 4 7 - 0 6 -- 3 6 - 5.4 -18.5 -19 4 - 2.5 - 3.7 - 0.6 + 4.3

- 7.0 - 7.5 + 1.6 - 7.9 +12.7 + 1.6

1970--January February March April p

+ 3.1 -12.0 -+19.0

+ 7.2 -15.6 + 7.5 +22.9

+ 5.0 -12.9 + 0.6 +22.2

- 4.2 - 8.0 +14.0 +17.6

+ 9.0 -10.7 +11.2 +12.5

+ 5.2 + 7.8 + 7.8 +10.3

+10.1 -15.5 +14.1 +12.4

-12.4 - 0.6 +14.4 +21.6

- 3.5 - 5.1 +10.7 +14.1

p - Preliminary.

.

Table 3 AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Seasonally Adjusted (Based on monthly averages of daily figures) ;~~~~~~

.

.

Period

Total Total reserves I

Nonborrowed reserves

Required Required reserves

.

. ..

...

Member Bank Deposits

Reserve Aggregates 5/ .

..

v CunnnrtdA U -r-

Total nk b e r ba member bank

br

Rn. uira4 LY q":1-

Time dpi deposits

deositsfi

(In millions of dollars)

Monthly: 1968--January February March April May June July August September October November December

26,134 26,352 26.451 26,298 26,353 26,547 26.715 27,213 27,311 27,504 27,685 27,964

25,818 25,961 25,755 25,606 25,626 25,889 26,186 26,675 26,860 27,066 27,095 27,215

25,774 25,989 26,078 25,964 25,952 26,196 26,402 26,893 26,951 27,185 27,376 27,609

275.1 277.4 278.5 277.3 277.8 279.5 281.7 286.9 289.0 292.2 295.0

1969--January February March April May June July August September October November December

28,139 28,060 27,972 27,775 28,235 28,056 27,530 27,401 27.402 27, 354 27.793 27.928

27,318 27,206 27,024 26,754 26,888 26,705 26,275 26,214 26,383 26.210 26. 38 26,806

27,902 27,832 27,729 27,614 27,942 27,742 27,334 27,161 27,144 27,129 27,548 27,707

297.0

1970--Japuary February March April p

28,001 27,722 27,723 28,163

26,966 26,615 26,782 27,293

29,823 27,523 27, 36 28,046

284.8 282.9 286.2 290.4

Money Supply

DOe ruas s .

U.S. Cov't.| demand i dem IdeDosits 1/ denosi ts ~ r L o n ( In b i Private Idemand demand

I

do l

149.9 150.2 151.2 151.3 151.5 151.8 153.8 156.5 158.9 161.5 163.5 165.8

119.7 120.1 120.6 120.8 122.7 123.8 125.2 125.6 124.8 125.7 126.8 128.2

5.4 7.1 6.7 5.2 3.7 3.9 2.7 4.8 5. ) 5.0 4.7 4.2

182 .6 183.J 184.2 185.1 18b.8 188.2 189.6 191,0 191 .4 191.8 193.6 194.8

288.0 285.3 283.7

163.2 161.0 160.5 160.1 159.3 158.1 155.1 152.5 152.1 151.5

28 .8 285.8

131.1

5.4 6.7 4.8 5.9 5.9 4.0 2.4 2.9 4.4 1.1 1.(1 4.9

195.8 196 3 196.8 198.1 198.3 199.0 199.3 199.0

283.

128.4 129.1 128.9 129.4 130.0 130.5 130.5 129.9 129.2 128.9 129.1 129.4 130.1 128.5 129.8 131.7

5.1 5.6

298.2

296.7 294.2 295.4 295.1 292.6

151.5 149.4 148.8 1r:.6 1:3.4

.

SPrivate Currency. demand 2/ deoosits 3

lotal

199.6

Commercial bank time deposits adjusted 41

Credit Prcy + Euro-dollars + other nondep. sources of FrAmr

1 a rs

142.0 142.6 143.2 143.8 145.3 146.3 147.5 148.6 148.8 149.1 150.5 151.4

184.1 185.8 187.2 187.7 188.2 188.6 191.1 193.8 196.4 199.4 202.1 204.9

45 6 4 ,.' 45 9

152.3 152.5 152.6 154.0 153.8 154.2 154.4 153.8 153.7 15'. 6 1 '.4 153.7

203.2 202.4 202.3 202.3 201.7 200.8 197.7 194.5 194.1 193.5 .9 '.4 194.1

307.5 305.7 303.8 304.2 302.2 305.5 305.7

46.1 46.4 46.7 47.1

155.0 153.0 154.8 156.4

192.1 192.0 194.3 197.8

304.8 303.5 306.2 309.8

40.6 40.7 41.1 41 3 41.6 41.9 42 1 1 42 4 42.7 42.8 43.2 43.4 4 1.5 4 1.8 44 .

44.2 44 .'

44.8 45.0 45 3

7(11 . 199.1 19' .' 201 . ) 20 1. 6

L~

not interbank deposits and Private demand deposits include demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and coporations Includes currency outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the vaults of all commercial banks cabh Items in Includes (1) demand deposits at all commercial banks, other than those due to domestic commercial banks, and the U S Government, less Bnks. Reserve Federal at balances demand foreign (2) and float; Reserve Federal and collection of process Excludes interbank and U.S. Government time deposits. Includes increases in required reserves due to changes in Regulations M and D of approximately $400, million since October 16, 1969.

Table 4 VARIABLES MONETARY AND RESERVES AGGREGATE Seasonally

Resc%

Period

Total reserves

egregat

Nonbol rowed reserves

3 10 17 24

(In 27,409 27,32' 27,370 27,236

I 8 15 22 29

27,717 27,233 27.260 27.547 27,238

26,362 26,291 25,975 26,520 25,989

5 12 19 26

27,655 27.565 27,951 27,897

3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21

s

Required I ese ves

millions of dollars) 26,194 26,957 27,059 26,687 26,364 27,238 26,199 26,982

Adjusted

Membet Bank Deposits Sun'torted b\ Renulred ResevT -it i Private U.S. Gov't Tine demand me embor hank 1 d mand dno desits nni r s ,dnnosits 1/I de osi s

.deosis W

(I

n

b t

lotJl

densit I i

0

Commercial bank time I ' Private deposits adjusted demand Currency S/ 2/ ideposits 3I

Money

'

o (

SuppI)

Credit Proxy + Euro-dollars + other nondep. sources of funds

d

285.8 283.7 287.1 285.0

151.9 151.9 152.0 152.2

130.7 129.7 129.8 128.6

3.2 2.2 5.2 4.1

199.5 I99.3 199.6 198.3

45.5 45.1 45.3 45.3

154.0 154.2 154.3 153.0

194.0 193.9 194.2 194.0

304.3 302.3 305.7 303.4

27,417 27,044 27,059 27,263 27,041

284.2 283.7 281.9 284.1 283.4

152.3 151.9 151.4 151.3 151.2

128.1 128.8 127.8 129.7 129.1

3.8 3.0 2.7 3.1 3.2

198.3 19)9.6 198.7 19q.9 19.5

45.2 45.4 45.6 45.7 45.7

153.1 154.3 153.0 154.3 152.8

194.3 193.9 193.6 193.3 193.4

302.4 300.7 303.2 302.1

26,359 26,339 26,829 26,547

27,360 27,354 27,732 27,637

286.0 285.9 285.7 285.5

151.3 151.0 151.0 151.1

129.3 129.0 129.2 129.1

5.5 5.9 5.5 5.3

198.7

1 99.2

45.7 45.8 45.9 45.9

153.0 153.9 154.2 153.2

193.3 193.1 193.2 193.5

304.7 305.2 305.3 305.8

27,839 2?,041 28,020 27,790 27,898

26,588 26,641 26,861 26,718 27,099

27,646 27,619 27,946 27,576 27,713

287.2 285.7 285.5 284.3 286.2

151.3 151.4 151.7 151.8 151.3

129.8 128.7 128.5 127.6 131.3

6.1 3.5 5.2 5.0 3.7

199.3 198.4 198.7 1)7.8 203.0

45.9 46.0 46.1 46.2 45.8

153.3 152.4 152.7 151.6 157.2

193.8 193.8 194.1 194.3 193.9

307.3 305.9 305.4 304.5 306.1

27,148 27,137 27,048 26,682

27,791 27,939 27,918 27,685

286.2 285.0 284.8 284.0

150.6 149.7 149.2 148.6

131.6 130.6 130.3 128.7

4.0 4.7

28

28,115 28,009 28,061 27,837

6.8

202.5 202.1 201.6 199.1

45.7 46.0 46.1 46.3

156.8 156.1 155.5 152.8

193.2 192.3 191.9 191.4

305.4 305.0 305.3 304.4

Feb.

4 11 18 25

27,959 27,739 27,705 27,597

26,614 26,720 26,545 26,538

27,724 27,549 27,512 27,449

282.8 282.7 282.7 283.2

148.4 148.4 148.8 149.1

128.6 127.9 128.6 128.8

5.8 6.4 5.3 5.4

199.0 198.5 199.5 199.9

46.3 46.3 46.4 46.4

152.7 152.2 153.1 153.4

191.1 191.4 192.0 192.6

303.3 303.2 303.3 303.8

Mar.

4 11 18 25

27,697 27,518 27,712 27,754

26,711 26.536 26,869 26,790

27,394 27,404 27,537 27,690

283.8 285.4 284.8 286.3

149.6 I10.O 150.3 151.0

129.3 129.0 128.6 129.6

4.9 6.4 5.8 5.7

200.6 ?00.0 1'9.9 200.2

46.5 46.6 46.7 46.8

154.2 153.4 153.2 153.5

193.0 193.3 194.1 194.8

304.1 305.2 304.8 306.3

Apr.

1 8 15 p 22 p 29 D

27,954 27,745 28,362 28,428 28,071

27,005 27,229 27,332 27,494 27,078

27,605 27,566 28,290 28,330 27,983

290.5 291.6 289.9 290.7 289.1

152.0 152.9 153.8 153.8 153.9

132.6 132.8 132.1 130.3 131.0

5.9 5.9 4.6 6.6 4.2

206.8 204.7 203.8 202.5 203.0

46.9 46.9 47.2 47.1 47.3

159.9 157.8 156.6 155.4 155.8

196.0 197.2 197.5 198.2 198.4

310.1 311.0 309.4

1969--Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1970--Jan.

1

I

5,.

2()0. 1

301.9

309.9 308.6

--- Private demand deposits include demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations and net interbank deposits. Includes currency outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the vaults of all commercial banks. less cash items in Includes (1) demand deposits at all commercial banks, other than these due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S Government, process of collections and Federal Reserve float; and (2) foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve Banks. Government time deposits. Excludes interbank ar U.S. 4/ 5/ Includes increases in required reserves due to changes in Regulations M and D of approximately $400 million since October 16, 1969. p - Preliminary. 1/ 2 3/