bluebooks · June 22, 1970

Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

June 19,

1970

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Recent Developments (1)

The near-crisis conditions which had developed in securities

markets around the time of the last Committee meeting have been significantly alleviated over the intervening weeks.

But uncertainties still

persist

regarding the general liquidity of some financial and non-financial sectors of the economy and the added borrowing pressures which such financial strains might generate.

As a result, securities markets remain quite

sensitive to even relatively modest shifts in supply-demand prospects and market expectations. (2)

Stock price indexes recovered nearly one-third of the steep

April-May decline in the week following the last Committee meeting but have since fluctuated below that recovery level. strengthened appreciably around the end of May.

Bond markets also In June,

however,

increased volume of offerings has pushed yields on new corporate bonds to new highs and other bond yields have retraced a sizable part of their late May declines.

At these yields investor interest has been good, and new

offerings have been generally well received.

Reports persist, however, that

businesses rated as less than high-quality are finding it difficult to finance in capital markets and are turning to banks for funds.

-2(3) high,

In short-term markets commercial paper rates have remained

and there has reportedly been an upgrading in

regarding the quality of credits. ments have edged lower,

investor standards

Rates on other short-term market instru-

particularly Treasury bills, with the yield on the

3-month issue most recently bid around 6.70 per cent,

about 30 basis points

below the level at the time of the last meeting. (4)

Desk purchases of Treasury coupon issues totaling about

$300 million--occurring just before and shortly after the May 26 meeting-contributed to the general improvement of market psychology inter-meeting period,

early in the

Changes in the average level of the Federal funds

rate were influenced by shifting--largely major money market banks over the period.

seasonal--reserve

pressures on

In the three statement weeks

ending June 3 these banks ran relatively shallow basic reserve deficits on average.

Partly for this reason the average effective

ranged between 7-5/8 and 7-7/8 per cent, were averaging close to $1 billion.

rate on Federal funds

even though net borrowed reserves

In the two following statement weeks,

as dividend and tax date pressures tended to deepen basic reserve deficits at the major money market banks, around 8 per cent on most days,

the effective

rate on Federal funds was

even though sizable reserve supplying opera-

tions by the Desk contributed to a sharp reduction of net borrowed reserves. In the statement week ending June 17, to $418 million,

when net borrowed reserves eased sharply

the Federal funds rate finally dropped well below 8 per cent

near the end of the period.

Average member bank borrowings also varied

significantly over the period,

ranging from a high of $1.2 billion in the

statement week ending June 3 to $650 million in the week just ended.

-3(5)

Growth in the monetary aggregates has diverged to some extent

from the staff projections that were presented to the Committee as background information at the last meeting.

The adjusted credit proxy initially grew

more rapidly than projected, although most recently it to the projected level.

The money supply,

has moved back about

on the other hand, fell sub-

stantially short of estimates and projections in

the latter half of May,

and since then has recovered only part of this difference. RECENT PATHS OF KEY MONETARY AGGREGATES (Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars) Adjusted Credit Proxy Projected at Last Meeting 1

Actual Results

Money Supply Projected at Last Meetingi

Actual Results

1970 Month

Levels

May

Levels

309.2

309.5

204.9

204.0

May 13

307.7

307.9

203.4

203.5

May 20

309.4

309.5

206.3

205.1

May 27

310.1

310.6

205.7

203.8

June 3

309.5

310.8

205.2

204.0

June 10

310.7

310.6

204.6

203.4

311.6

311.8

205.2

204.3

Weeks Ending

June 17.

Annual Rates of Change

Months May June e/ r/

- 1.5 8.5

- 0.4 8.0E£ /

9.5 1.0

4.1 - 1.

Estimated. Projected. Projections were based on an assumption of no change in money market conditions.

-4(6) reflected in

The slower-than-projected growth in the money supply

part a higher-than-estimated

deposits in late May and early June.

level of U.S.

Government

However, deviations from the

projections also developed from other temporary factors in two weeks of May.

the last

For the week of May 20, when the money supply increased

sharply, data available at the time of the last meeting had overstated the increase by $1.3 billion.

Similarly,

the following week a

decline of $600 million was projected at the time of the meeting, but the actual decline turned out to be $1.3 billion.

The mid-May bulge

reflected retroactive Federal supplements to consumer income and temporary deposits resulting from attrition in ing,

the May Treasury refund-

the short-range impacts of which were difficult to assess in (7)

The initial

movement of the adjusted credit proxy above

the projected path was due chiefly to larger-than-estimated in

nondeposit sources of funds and time deposits.

data indicate considerable slackening in

expansion

the course of May,

all non-deposit sources increased by around $900 million. June,

advance.

For early

the increase of bank-

related commercial paper, but Euro-dollar borrowings in this period have picked up.

Time deposits are now estimated to have risen at a

10 per cent average rate in May and appear to be continuing at close to that rate in June as well.

Almost all of this growth has been in

consumer-type time deposits at country banks. City there still

At banks outside New York

are indications of some net increase in

outstanding CD's

despite the fact that investment yields on Treasury bills are now about 20-30 basis points above comparable CD ceilings. shown moderate net run-offs in

recent weeks,

Total CD's have

with attrition of foreign

deposits in New York City offset in part by slight increases in CD's issued in

other leading cities.

(8)

The following table summarizes seasonally adjusted annual

rates of change in

major reserve,

deposit,

and credit aggregates for

selected periods: Past Year (May over May)

May over December

May over April

Total Reserves

-2.7

-0.3

-14.0

Nonborrowed Reserves

-1.5

1.0

-19.2

Money Supply

2.9

5.3

4.1

June over December (Proj.)

June over May (Proj.) 1.0

2.2

7.5

4.2

-1.0

7.2

9.0

-1.0

6.8

2.8

3.9

5. 6 p

n.a.

n. a.

Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy)

-2.0

2.9

4.1

3.4

6.0

Proxy plus Euro-dollars

-1.3

1.0

- 3.2

2.0

7.0

n.a.

3.0

- 0.4

3.8

8.0

Total loans and investments of all commercial banks

1.4

2.3

6.0

n. a.

n.a.

L&I plus loans sold outright to affiliates and foreign branches

2.9

4.7

8.5

n. a.

n.a.

Time and savings deposits Savings accounts at nonbank thrift institutions

10.3

Member bank deposits and related sources of funds

Proxy plus Euro-dollars and other nondeposit sources Commercial bank credit (month end)

All items are averages of daily figures (with "other nondeposit sources" based on an average for the month of Wednesday data), except the commercial bank credit series which are based on total outstanding on last Wednesday of month. All additions to the total member bank deposit series are seasonally unadjusted numbers, since data have not been available for a long enough time to make seasonal adjustments. p--Preliminary, n.a.--Not available. NOTE:

-6Prospective Developments (9)

Conditions in money and securities markets over the weeks ahead

remain highly uncertain.

Interest rates in long markets are exceptionally

high, but the effects that this could have over time on lender and borrower attitudes are not yet apparent.

The emphasis on high quality credits by

investors, if it continues, may also bring changes in the pattern of fund flows,

particularly with reference to the commercial paper market.

Treasury probably will raise $4.5--$5.0 billion in mainly through tax anticipation bills.

The

new cash during July,

Substantial fund flows will occur

around the mid-year interest and dividend crediting period at banks and other savings institutions, with the net outcome in doubt.

Finally, the

underlying economic situation remains uncertain, with most of the recently available data pointing toward increased weakness. (10)

In this situation, the Committee may wish to consider three

alternative policy courses for the interval until its next meeting on July 21, at which time "even keel" considerations are likely to become a factor constraining operations.

First, it may wish to continue the current

directive for another interval, emphasizing the objective of moderating financial market pressures, with secondary attention to the monetary aggregates.

Second, it may wish to reestablish as its primary objective

the achievement of moderate growth in the monetary aggregates, along the lines visualized at the May 5 and earlier meetings, with a proviso addressed to countering any excessive pressures that may develop.

Or the Committee,

in recognition of the somewhat weaker economic news and the prospect that

-7economic recovery over the next year may be more sluggish than was anticipated earlier,

may wish to move policy toward the achievement of a moderately

faster rate of growth in money and bank credit than has prevailed in the year to date, with a proviso similar to that of the preceding alternative. Specificationsfor these three alternatives are discussed below.

Alternative A (11)

If the Committee desires to continue for the time being

primary emphasis on financial market conditions over monetary aggregates, it may wish to consider renewal of the directive language adopted at the last meeting, with the following minor changes: current] [DEL:

"To implement this policy, in view of PERSISTING market uncertainties and liquidity strains, open market

operations until the next meeting of the Committee shall CONTINUE TO be conducted with a view to moderating pressures on financial markets, while, to the extent compatible therewith, maintaining bank reserves and money market conditions consistent with the Committee's longer-run objective of moderate growth in money and bank credit." If

this directive is

adopted,

the phrase "moderating pressures on financial

markets' might be interpreted to mean (1) that the Desk should act to ease recently prevailing money market conditions if the behavior of securities markets generally should again begin to deteriorate; (2) that if there is no further deterioriation, the Desk should (a) exercise considerable caution in taking any firming actions in response to unduly rapid growth in the monetary aggregates.

Since such actions might

themselves set off a deteriotation of security market conditions; and (b) avoid easing unless the aggregates begin to fall short of the Committee's

-8longer-run obejctive of moderate growth.

It would seem that the intended

meaning of "moderate growth" would have to be specified; one possibility is

the set of projections shown in (12)

paragraph (14)

below.

Recently prevailing money market conditions may be taken

to include a Federal funds rate generally in the 7-5/8--8 per cent range, net borrowed reserves averaging $650-$900 million; and average member bank borrowings in

an $800 million to $1.0 billion range.

Given the fact

that bill rates are subject to fairly wide seasonal fluctuations at this time of year, a relatively wide 6.50-7.00 per cent range for the 3-month bill rate might be consistent with the preceding specifications. (13) this range in

The bill

rate is

likely to move somewhat lower within

the very near term, given the current depleted level of and expected seasonal demands.

Bill buying is

dealer bill

positions,

anticipated

from investors rechanneling some part of the proceeds of

the $3.3 billion of

maturing

June tax bills not turned in

for taxes,

from banks seeking bills for end-of-June window-dressing purposes,

and

from the System's need to supply substantial reserves over the July 4 holiday.

In July,

however,

the Treasury is

expected to raise $4.5 to

$5.0 billion of new money in the bill market--through continued additions to the

weekly bill

auctions and probably two offerings of tax bills,

one of which could come very early in

the month.

This additional supply

of bills would very likely press bill rates higher, possibly toward the upper end of the range specified above or even beyond. should rise to say 6.90 per cent or above,

the rate

this directive would com-

template that the Desk would move to resist the increase.

-9(14)

Given staff expectations of a modest increase in

activity during the third quarter, tions and 3-month Treasury bill be expected

economic

maintenance of the money market condi-

rates in

the ranges outlined above would

to produce the following monthly patterns of growth in

the

monetary aggregates:-/ Projected Growth of Monetary Aggregates Assuming Maintenance of Recently Prevailing Money Market Conditions (Daily averages, seasonally adjusted) Adjusted Credit Proxy Levels (in Annual Kate billions) of Change

Money Supply Levels (in Annual Rate billions) of Change

Months June July August September

311.5 312.4 314.3 316.5

8.0 3.5 7.5 8.5

Quarters 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr.

203.8 205.2 206.0 206.4

7.0 6.5

-1.0 8.0 4.5 2.5

Total Rese rves Levels(in Annual billions) Rate of Change --4.0 5.0

27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1

4.5-' 5.0

2.5 3.0

1/ March includes 4 days in which transactions through foreign agencies and Edge corporations reduced cash items and thus raised the reported money supply. June will not include such a period. An adjustment to remove the resulting bias in the rate of change over the second quarter would add about 1 percentage point to the second quarter rate shown in table. (15) rate in

As shown in

the table,

the 5 per cent third quarter growth

the money stock projected under the above assumptions

relatively high growth rate in July and progressively smaller August and September.

involves a increases in

The projected July growth rate makes allowance

for heavy net payments by the Treasury to the public during the month,

together

with temporary increases in demand balances arising from disintermediation at depositary-type institutions during the imminent mid-year reinvestment period. While the net switching out of accounts at such institutions is substantially below a year ago,

expected to be

the volume of deposit churning involved is,

1/ Projected weekly patterns for the period until the July meeting are included in the table in paragraph (20) below.

-10nevertheless,

likely to be relatively large.

supply growth in

September is

attributable

to an expected sharp rise in

Government deposits created by tax inflows, tions in

The very low rate of money

as well as to assumed reduc-

bank holdings of new Treasury debt to be acquired in

These two types of effects

projected end-of-August cash financing.

also help to account for the estimated drop in (16)

the

Time deposits--not shown in

the money supply during June.

the table--are projected to

grow at about a 9-1/2 per cent rate on average over the third quarter. With investment yields on Treasury bills and other short-term market instruments continuing at levels that make large negotiable CD's noncompetitive, no net growth in these instruments is projected, although it

expected that enough new CD's can be issued

to offset continuing run-offs at the major banks. type time and savings deposits is

outside New York City Growth in

consumer-

likely to slow appreciably in July,

during the mid-year reinvestment period.

Thereafter, growth of such

accounts should pick up appreciably as in

other recent quarters,

returning total time deposit expansion to about a 10-1/2 per cent annual rate in September.

The pattern of growth in

the credit proxy is

strongly influenced by the projected path of time deposit expansion and assumes a steady growth in a week. volume,

nondeposit sources of funds at $100 million

commercial paper issuers should move back into banks in

growth in

the proxy,

of course,

could be larger,with bank financing

presumably coming from non-deposit sources (or perhaps from increased borrowing at the discount window). Alternative B (17)

the Committee wishes to return to its

on moderate growth in

earlier emphasis

the monetary aggregates as the primary operating

-11target for open market policy, it

may wish to adopt a directive with

the following language: "To implement this policy, [DEL: in view

ofcurrent

market

uncertainties and liquidity strains,] THE COMMITTEE SEEKS TO PROMOTE MODERATE GROWTH IN MONEY AND BANK CREDIT OVER THE MONTHS AHEAD.

SYSTEM open market operations until the next

meeting of the Committee shall be conducted with a view to moderating pressures on [DEL: extent compatible

financial markets

therewith;]

while to the

maintaining bank reserves and

money market conditions consistent with the-[DEL: Committee's longer run] THAT objective [DEL: of moderate growth in bank credit;]PROVIDED,

HOWEVER,

moneyand

THAT OPERATIONS SHALL BE

MODIFIED AS NEEDED TO COUNTER EXCESSIVE PRESSURES IN FINANCIAL MARKETS,

SHOULD THEY DEVELOP."

"Moderate growth" in the money supply was defined as a 4 per cent annual rate at the Committee's May 5 meeting when this form of the directive was last adopted.

This rate of change also approximates that now estimated

for the first half of the year.

The following table delineates a set

of target paths for the monetary aggregates that would be consistent with a continuation of this 4 per cent growth rate over the third quarter.

-12Monthly Target Paths for the Monetary Aggregates Assuming the Money Supply Grows at a 4 per Cent Annual Rate Over the Third Quarter (Daily average levels seasonally adjusted) Adjusted Credit Proxy Money Supply T otal Reserves Annual Rate Annual Rate Annual Rate Level of Change Level of Change Leve 1 of Change Months (in billions) (in billions) (in bil lions) June July August Septemb'er

311.5 312.1 313.7 315.7

8.0 2.5 6.0 7.5

203.8 205.1 205.7 205.8

-1.0 7.5 3.5 0.5

27. 9 27. 9 27. 9 28. 3

-0.5 3.5 4.0

Quarters 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr.

7.0 5.5

4.5!/

3.0 2.0

4.0

For the money supply to grow at the targeted 4 per cent annual the third quarter,

money market conditions would have to be somewhat

firmer than those currently prevailing as described in

paragraph (12)

above.

These firmer conditions might include a Federal funds rate generally in 7-3/4--8-1/4 per cent range,

net borrowed reserves averaging around $900

million, and member bank borrowings averaging around $1 billion. circumstances,

In these

the 3-month Treasury bill rate could also be expected to

range somewhat higher than under Alternative A, perhaps between 6.60 and 7.10 per cent.

-13(19)

Growth in

the adjusted credit proxy consistent with 4 per

cent money growth and the money market conditions specified above is

pro-

jected at an annual rate averaging 5-1/2 per cent during the third The monthly pattern is much the same as shown in paragraph weaker and expansion a little 14, but with time deposit growth relatively/in nondeposit sources of

quarter.

funds somewhat stronger than implied in that alternative.

In parti-

cular, we would expect that CD sales would be appreciably more difficult in the tighter short-term markets contemplated in this variant, and that some net attrition in (20)

such balances outstanding could be anticipated.

the period from now until the next meeting,

a target

path for the monetary aggregates that might be expected to emerge from the money market and bill rate conditions specified in paragraph (18) would be the following.

The table also shows the projected weekly

path associated with Alternative A. Weekly Path for Monetary Aggregates (Daily average levels, seasonally adjusted in billions of dollars) Adjusted Credit Proxy Week ending

Alt. B

Alt. A

June 17 24

311.8 311.6

1 8 15 22

311.8 311.3 312.3 311.2

July

1/ 2/

Money Supply

Tctal Reserves

Alt. B

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. A

311.8 311.6

204.3 203.8

27.9 27.7

311.8 311.4 312.4 311.5

203.6 204.3 205.3 204.2

203.6 204.4 205.4 205.3

28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8

Target path assuming 4 per cent growth in money supply over the third quarter. Results projected on assumptions of maintenance of prevailing money market conditions.

-14Alternative C (21)

the Committee believes that the somewhat weaker

economic projection calls for a moderately more stimulative monetary policy, defined in terms of expansion rates for money, it may wish to consider the following alternative language: "To implement this policy,

in view of current market [DEL:

uncertainties and liquidity strains,] THE COMMITTEE SEEKS TO PROMOTE SOMEWHAT GREATER GROWTH IN MONEY AND BANK CREDIT OVER THE MONTHS AHEAD THAN IN THE FIRST HALF OF THIS YEAR, SYSTEM open market operations until the next meeting of the Committee shall be conducted with a view to [DEL: moderating pressures on financial markets; while; to the extent compatible therewith; maintaining bank reserves and money market conditions consistent with the committee's longer run]THAT objective of-moderate-growth [DEL: in money and bank credit;] PROVIDED,

HOWEVER,

THAT OPERATIONS

SHALL BE MODIFIED AS NEEDED TO COUNTER EXCESSIVE PRESSURES IN FINANCIAL MARKETS,

SHOULD THEY DEVELOP."

The phrase "somewhat greater growth in

money" might be defined

as a 6 per cent annual growth rate over the third quarter.

This would

be moderately more than the 4.2 per cent growth rate expected for the first

half of 1970,

and slightly larger than the probably rate of

expansion after adjustment for the temporary bulge in December that resulted from foreign transactions.

As indicated in the table below, we

-15would expect such a growth rate in money to be associated with expansion in the adjusted credit proxy at a 7.5 per cent annual rate in the third quarter (compared with a 3.8 per cent growth rate estimated for the first half).

This result would reflect a somewhat larger expansion in time

deposits than under the preceding alternatives, offset in part by less reliance on nondeposit funds. Monthly Target Paths for the Monetary Aggregates, Assuming the Money Supply Grows at a 6 Per Cent Annual Rate Over the Third Quarter (Daily averages, seasonally adjusted)

Months June July August September

Adjusted Credit Proxy Level (in Annual Rate billions) of Change 311.5 312.6 314.9 317.3

8.0 4.0 9.0 9.0

Money Supply Level (in Annual Rate billions) of Change 203.8 205.3 206.3 207.0

-1.0 9.0 6.0 4.0

Total Reserves Level (in Annual Rate billions)

of Chan ge

27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2

-0.5 4.0 5.0

Quarters 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr.

7.0 7.5

4.51/ 6.0

3.0 3.0

For the money supply and bank credit to grow as targeted

in the table, we believe that money market conditions would need to be eased somewhat relative to the conditions that have been prevailing recently.

-16Such an easing might be taken to mean a Federal funds rate generally ranging between 7-1/4 and 7-3/4 per cent, net borrowed reserves averaging around $650 million, and member bank borrowings averaging around $750 million.

Under these conditions the rate on 3-month Treasury bills might

be expected to range generally between 6.40 and 6.80 per cent. (23)

Between now and the next meeting, weekly target paths for

the monetary aggregates that could be expected to be consistent with this set of market specifications are as follows: Weekly Target Paths for the Monetary Aggregates, Assuming a 6 Per Cent Growth in the Money Supply Week ending

Adjusted Credit Proxy

Money Sipply

June 17 22

311.8 311.6

204.3 203.8

1 8 15

311.8 311.5 312.7

203.6 204.4 205.5

311.8

205.5

July

-17Concluding Comment (24)

Given the known pitfalls in

the differences in

projecting financial data,

implications of the three alternative directives

may not seem very significant.

However,

some possibility exists

that

the changes in short-term market interest rates required under Alternative B or C could be large enough to have appreciable effects on market expectations about the course of interest rates. the adoption of Alternative C might lead to a decline in

Thus,

short-term

market rates sufficient to make large CD's marginally competitive again.

this were to happen, banks would be able to strengthen

their liquidity positions somewhat; and the resulting lessening of tensions could improve market expectations regarding credit availability and interest rates.

On the other hand, given the still

of securities markets,

the adoption of Alternative B,

sensitive state involving a

marginal firming in money markets, might lead to some stiffening of market interest rates and renewed apprehensions about financial conditions.

Table 1 (Dollar amounts

MARGINAL RESERVE MEASURES millions, based on period averages

Banks

Member Period

Monthly (reserves weeks ending in): 1969--Januarv February March April May June July August September October November December 1970--January February March April May Weekly: 5 1969- Nov. 12 19 26

Frec reserves

Excess reserves

Total

of daily figures)

Borrowings

C Reserve Major banksI YV N Outside R N.Y

ty Other

Country

- 477 - 580 - 635 - 844 -1,116 -1,078 -1,045 - 997 - 744 - 995 - 975 - 849

359 256 202 187 243 277 266 214 282 195 238 278

836 836 837 1,031 1,359 1,355 1,311 1,211 1,026 1,190 1,213 1,127

131 62 58 85 123 57 89 81 83 106 120 268

302 255 233 411 346 459 250 253 236 327 387 310

149 215 254 260 397 288 364 256 222 293 250 220

253 304 293 275 493 550 608 621 485 464 456 329

- 759 - 916 - 751 - 687 - 765

169 210 129 178 159

928 1,126 880 865 924

148 106 90 227 165

287 317 225 331 241

232 289 287 119 228

261 414 278 188 290

-1,032 - 873 - 925 -1,072

296 371 146 138

1,328 1,244 1,071 1,210

121 350 -8

422 296 390

295 189 260

490 409 421

438

260

504

Dec.

3 10 17 24 31

988 903 946 832 576

203 297 98 264 528

1,191 1,200 1,044 1,096 1,104

266 293 164 296 319

307 264 296 356 334

241 264 301 150 153

379 379 296 292 299

1970--Jan.

7 14 21 28

- 567 - 788 - 760 - 918

285 77 203 112

852 865 963 1,030

196 234 75 86

327 281 340 200

87 188 296 358

243 162 252 386

Feb.

4 11 18 25

-1,047 - 862 - 861 - 893

211 207 249 172

1,258 1,069 1,110 1,065

75 130 218 --

383 351 261 271

317 267 246 329

483 321 385 465

Mar.

4 11 18 25

- 638 - 861 667 840

195 71 150 96

836 931 817 936

32 169 146 11

46 349 216 289

419

339 22L 270 279

1 8 15 22 29

610 -2 17 - 915 - 811 - 783

339

232 -322 517 63

264 269 509 252 361

161

102 158 111

9 o0 496 1,017 969 894

47 81 259

292 178 139 119 211

6 13 20 27

-424 -782 - 965 -889

350 28 214 44

774 810 1,179 933

93 150 332 86

248 254 310 150

220 202 243 247

213 204 ?94 450

-1,050 - 738 - 446

175 118 212

1,225 856 658

269 195 --

354 237 251

264 169 186

338 255 221

Apr.

May

June

3 p 10 p 17 p

p - Freliminary.

190 185 357

(1i

peT

Table 2 AGGREGATERESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES ti, Chnc , S ,<'-l A ' asud .2' t mc l aH %

kclt i a rr

2.2 r~

2-f

2 . 'IC'

Ar. 7 4 5

196-1

Ser -annuall l t H.1 2nd Hall

l c 1496

Quarterl 0 Ist Quat-er 1 08 2nd Quarter o168 a 3rd Quarter l 68 4th Quarter 1968 Ist 2nd 3rd Lth

Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter

1st Quarter

- 3

+79 +15 +11 5 +96

+ 11 +21 +15 0 + 5.3

+ +757 5

1969 1o60 19t'. 1960

+ 0.1

+17

S1 4

-2 8 -47 - 4 8 - 01

-8 6 +2 C

- 4.8 -22 -9 4 + 0.1

107C

:.9

- 0.4

+ 0.6

-69 +09 +12 -13 -22 + 8 + 9 +83 +92 + I +53 + 5

-52 -06 *11 - 9 +26 + 2 6

octhl' 19t--April

S12

-6

Ma\ June Auogust Seotemoer Octoher Noveber Derember 1 *6--Januar% Februar' March April

Ma' June Ju!\ August Se-terrr Octoer

\cve-er

- .9 +12 1

5 3 2 J 3

2.5

+ 8.-10 2

7 5 - 3.

+ 4 5 - 4.9

+12 7

8.5

-12 C, +6 0 -82 -19 - 2 S + 7 7 -2S -17 9 - 5.5

- 5r

-76 +19

- 7 69 -22.5 -

+11 5 + 9 8 +98

5.6

-11 7 -. 07

3 L

-Se

-17 6 -76 - . -1"

+ 7 3 +73 + 1 +13 6 +12.7

- -

;

- Pre..---.-

- 3.1 -1:. 2

4 1 +68

+ 1 2 +71 +12

-52 +2.2 +73 +9 +22 2 +88 +13 3 +11.5 +13.0

+59

- 3.2 - 1.2 -10.1 + 4.9 - 1.2 -10.2 -18 9 -11 3 + 1 7 +17 -9 2 S97

+69 S7 8 + 7 6 + 6 6 +76 +66

+ S

4 6 5 +63 + 6 3 + 3 +62

++70 3 2 +32 +42

+ 7.0

+58 +87 +8 7 5 7

- ".2 -1-.1

-..

- 5.1 -30 -1+ J

-32 +12

+26 + 2 6 .5

1 6 + 2.4 +11 3 7 2

-16 1 +18 3 +16.2 +16 6

t.2 3 1 31 7 9

+ 2.8 +83 + .12 2 +2.7 + 8 1 +81 + 81 S5

- 7 1 + 1 6 - 0.9 +11 0 - 1

-122.0 .- 7

S8.0

7 -08 - 0.

1 2 -12 -1 6 & t

- 2.6 +10.t +

n a - - C + 2 0

2.°

+ 8 5 .85 + 2.8 +11.; + 5.6

-35 - 3 6 5-18 -1

- ' 6

- 7 - 7 -75

-I.

- .0

+ 6 8 + 7 0

+76 43 +16 5 +17 3

+ 2.5 2 5 +11 , + 7 -

- 1°1

- 6.3 1-7 --

S55 +67 + 6 8 + 7 1

- i7. .

- +2 +1 ' -1 ,

+22.!

Table 3 AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Seasonally Adjusted (Based on monthly averages of daily figures) Member Bank Deposits Supported by Required Reserves ro: . 1 1 Private U.S. Gov'L. Requrudl memb, bank d T ime demand demand

Money Supply oneyank

ReHerve A ggates I/ Period

Total r e ser v e s

Monthly: 1968--January February March April May June July August September October November December 1969--January February March April May June July August September 0,-toher November December 1970--January February March April May p

(In

26,134 26,352 26,451

26,298 26,353 26,547 26.715 27,213

27,311 27,504 27,685 27,964

28,139 28,060 27,972 27,775 28,235 28,056 27, 530 27,401 27,402

27, 354 27,783 27,928 28,001 27,722 27,723

28,216 27,888

Nonboitowedv

*resev r milli ons of dollirs)

I ts

deposits In

its 1/ b

149.9 150.2 151.2 151.3 151.5 151.8 153.8 156.5 158.9 161.5 163.5 165.8

119.7 120.1 120.6 120.8 122.7 123.8 125.2 125.6 124.8 125.7 126.8 128.2

285.8 285.8

163.2 161.0 160.5 160.1 159.3 158.1 155.1 152.5 152.1 151.5 151.1 151.5

128.4 129.1 128.9 129.4 130.0 130.5 130.5 129.9 1"9.2 178.9 129.1 129.4

284.8 282.9 286.2 290 2 289.2

149.4 148.8 150.6 153.5 154.6

130.1 128.5 129.8 131.4 131.6

25,818 25,961 25,7'55 25.606 25,626 25,889 26,186 26,675 26,860 27,066 27,095 27,215

25,774 25.989 26,078 25,964 25,952 26,196 26,402 26,893 26.951 27,185 27,376 27,609

275.1 277.4

27,318 27,206 27,024 26,754 26,888 26,705 26 275 26,214 26,383 26. 710 26,538 26,806

27,902 27,832 27,729 27,614 27,942 27,742 27,334 27,161 27, 114 27. 12' 27,548 27,707

297.0 296.7 294.2 295.4 295. 1 292.6 28R.0

26,966 26,b15 26,787 27, 350 26,913

27,823 27.523 27,536 28,046 27,692

278.5 277.3 277.8 279.1 281.7 286.9 289.0 292.2 295.0 298.2

?8 . 1 283. '

deposits lions

5.4 7.1 6.7 5.2 3.7

3,9 2.7 4.8 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.2

Total of

Currency 2/

do 1 l

a r

184.1 185.8 187.2

203.2

45.9

152.3 152.5 152.6 154.0 153.8 154.2 154.4 153.8 153.7 1 ' .I 153.4 153.7

46.1 46.4 46.7 47.0 47.6

155.0 153.0 154.8 156.2 156.4

192.1 192 .0 194, ) 197.9 199.6

40.6 40.7 41.1

195.8 196.3 196.8 198,1 198.3 199.0 199.3

43.5

199.0 199.0 199.1 199.3 199.6

45.3 45.2

199.3 201.5 203.3 204.0

41.3

41.6 41.9 42.1 42.4 42.7 42.8 43.2 43.4

43.8

44.1 44.2 44.5

44.8 45.0 45.6 45.9

Credit Prcxy + E,,r,-dnllars + other nindep. sources of | rn

142.0 142.6 143.2 143.8 145.3 146.3 147.5 148.6 148.8 149.1 150.5 151.4

182.6 18J.3 184.2 185.1 186.8 188.2 189.6 191.0 191.4 191.8 193.6 194.8

201.1

Commercial time Private deposits demand adjusted deposits 3 4/

187.7 188.2 188.6 191 1 193.8 196.4 199.4 202.1 204.9

202.4

202.3 202,3 201 .7 200.8 197.7 194 .5 194. 1 19'41. 193.4 194.1

L and corporations and net interbank deposits. Private demand deposits include demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, all commercial banks. of vaults the and Reserve, Federal the Includes currency outside the Treasury, commercial banks and the U.S. Government, lesss cash items Includes (1) demand deposits at all commercial banks, other, than those due to domestic and (2) Foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve Banks. process of collection and Federal Reserve float , Government timee deposits.' Excludes interbank and U.S Includes increases in required reserves due to changes in Regulations M and D of approximately $400 million since October 16, 1969.

307.5 305.7 303.8 a04.2 302.2 '05.5

305.1 304.8

303.4 306.1 309.6

309.5

____________________

Table 4 AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Seasonally Ad usted

R'serve

Period

Total reserves

...

SNnn Nonbor

owed

resci ve. * wc

RequIij

rese.V4

eserv., Vs cI

(In milli mllln onqs f (I'1 1 1

Tn i I Totl meo i h.nk

d i (Irpusits

i. m J

Time elos t

dos

iti

Private

5 12 19 26

27,655 27,565 27,951 27,897

26.1 26, 1133 26,829 26,S' 7

3 10 17 24 31

27,839 28,041 28,020 27,790 27,898

26,588 26,641 26,861 26,718 27,099

27.64 6 27,619' 27,946 27,576 27,713

287.2 285.7 285.5 284.3 286.2

151.3 151.4 151.7 151.8 151.3

129.8 128.7 128.5 127.6 131.3

7 14 21 28

28,115 28,009 28,061 27,837

27,148 27,137 27,048 26,682

27,791 27,939 27,918 27,685

286,2 285.0 284.8 284.0

150.6 149,7 149.2 148.6

Feb.

4 11 18 25

27,959 27,739 27,705 27,597

26,614 26,720 26,545 26,538

27,724 27,549 27,512 27,449

282.8 282.7 282.7 283.2

Mar.

4 11 18 25

27,697 27,518 27,712 27,754

26,711 26 '36 26,869 26,790

27,394 27,404 27,517 27,690

1 8 15 22 29

27,954 27,745 28,390 28,448 28.282

27,005 27,229 27,3 ) 27.,16 27,288

6 13 20

28,481 27,696 27,965 27,504 27,868 27,899 27,949

Dec.

1970--Jan.

Apr.

May

27 June

3 p 10 p 17 p

286.0 285.9 285.7 285.5

151.3 151.0 151.0 151.1

Money Supply

U.S.

Gov't.

demand dem.and deposits 1/ deposits i , m II I n b 1 i o n s 129.3 5.5 129.0 5.9 129.2 5.5 129.1 5.,

) 27.160 27, 3V5 27,712 27,617

1969--Nov.

Member Bank Deposits Supported by Reouired Reserves

\)giegiles

Total

o f

Currency

2/ 1 a r

199.7 200.1 199.2

45.7 45.8 45.9 45.9

lI3.0 153.0

6.1

199.3

45.9

3.5

198.4

46.0

5.2

198.7

5.0 3.7

197.8 203.0

46.1 46.2 45.8

131.6 130.6 130.3 128.7

4.0

202.5 202.1 201.6 199.1

148.4 148.4 148.8 149.1

128.6 127.9 128.6 128.8

5.8 6.4 5.3

281.8 285.4 284,8 286.3

149.6 150.0 150.3 151.0

129.3 129.0 128.6 129.6

27,60' 27,566 28,290 28,110 28, (05

29.5 291.6 289.') 290.7 288.4

152.0 152.9 153.2 153.8 154.2

132.6 132.8

5.9

132.1 130.3 129.8

4.6

27,710 26,876 26,754 26,559

28,101 27,6'52 27,702 27,424

288.9 287.8 289'. 290.1

154.3

3.2

154.7 154.7

131.4 131.2 1 2.4 131.3

2.3 2.2

203.9 203.5 205.1

4.2

26,681 27,011 27,366

27,602 27,714 27,747

290.? 289.8 290.9

155.0 155.3 155.6

132.1' 130.5 130.1

3.0

154.3

198.7

ComnerciallCredlt Proxy + bank time lEuro-dollars + Private dLposits other nondep. demand adjusted 'sources of 4/ I funds deposits J3 t de-si

193.3

154.2 153.2

193. 1 193.2 193.5

304.7 305.2 305.3 305.8

153.3 152.4 152.7 151.6 157.2

193.8 193.8 194. 1 194.3 193.9

307.3 305.9 305.4 304.5 306.1

45.7 46.0 46.1 46.3

156.8 156.1 155.5

305.4 305.0 305.3

152.8

193.2 192.3 191.9 191.4

199.0 198.5 199.5 199.9

46.3 46.3 46.4 46.4

152.7 152.2 153.1 153.4

191.1 19L.4 192.0 192.6

303.1 303.2 303.3 303.8

4.9 6.4

200.6

154.2

5.8

199.9 200.2

46.5 46.6 46.7 46.8

153.5

193.0 193.3 194.1 194.8

304.1 305.2 304.8 106.3

159.9 157.8

196.0 197.2

310.1 311.0

156.6 155.4

109.4 309.9 308.0

4.7

5.3 6.8

5.4

5.7

5.9 6.6 4.4

4.1 5.1

200.0

153.4 153.2

46,9 46.9 47.1 47.1 47.3

206.8 204.7 201.7 202,5' 201.7

304.4

154.5

197.5 198.2 198.8

203.8

47.5 47.6 47.6 47.6

156.4 155.9 157.5 156.2

199.1 199.2 199.7 199.9

309.0 307.9 309.5 310.6

204.0 203.4 204.3

47.6 47.7 47.9

156.4 155.6 156.4

200.1 200.5 201.0

310,8 310.6 311.8

I I L « _ -- I f; -.-4n *.. - tDrl ----- L _-- - -^-J^ - -Preliminary. p depsits. Private demand deposits include demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations and net Interbank banks. commercial all of vaults Includes currency outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the commercial banks and the U.S. Government, less cash items in Includes (1) demand deposits at a11 commercial banks, other than those due to domestic Reserve Banks, Federal at balances demand foreign (2) and float, serve R Federal and process of collection Excludes interank and U.S. Government time deposits.

~~~~~~~~

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1970, June 22). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19700623

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19700623,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1970},
  month = {Jun},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19700623},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}