Bluebook
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Content last modified 6/05/2009.
(CONFIDENTIAL
FR)
October
16,
1970.
MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee
By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
October 16, 1970.
CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1)
Interest rates on short-term credit instruments and on
Treasury notes and bonds have moved lower since the September 15 meeting of the Committee, while yields on corporate and municipal bonds have changed little on balance under the pressure of a very heavy volume of The latest yield on the 3-month Treasury bill was around
new issues.
5.90 per cent, compared with 6.30 per cent at the time of the meeting. Other short-term rates, which tend to lag behind bill rates, have drifted steadily lower, as banks have continued to reduce their borrowings in the commercial paper market and the GM strike has lessened demands on the finance paper market. (2)
The Federal funds rate has fluctuated widely since the
last meeting.
Immediately following the meeting, an unexpected bulge
in reserve availability pushed the Federal funds rate into the 5-3/4--6 per cent range and helped give rise to market expectations that the discount rate was about to be reduced.
Most recently, however, trading has taken
place generally in the 6-1/8--6-1/2 per cent range specified in the last Blue Book.
With large and unexpected shifts in market factors affecting
reserves over the last four weeks, net reserves have fluctuated in a -$500 million to +$25 million range.
At the same time, weekly average
-2member bank borrowings have ranged from around $400 million to about $660 million. (3)
The outstanding level of the money supply in September
turned out to be higher than was estimated at the time of the last meeting mainly as a result of higher-than-expected weekly money supply figures in the first half of the month.
At the moment, the third quarter rate of
expansion in money is 5 per cent corrected for bias (and 5.3 per cent on a published basis).
The adjusted bank credit proxy is estimated to have
grown from August to September and also over the third quarter as a whole at rates in line with previous Blue Book indications.
Banks continued to
run off commercial paper in anticipation of the new reserve requirement, with the $2.0 billion September decline (September 2-September 30) bringing the total run-off from the August 17 reserve requirement announcement through September to /$3.1 billion. Bank liabilities to their foreign branches dropped by about $600 million over the four weeks ending September 30 as the widening spread between Euro-dollars and domestic rates caused banks to reduce their use of foreign funds, and, in some instances, to allow these deposits to fall below the reserve free base.
These reductions in September in non-
deposit sources of funds were only partially offset by a $1.5 billion increase in CD's over the month.
But growth of other time and savings
deposits was very strong in September--at a 14 per cent average annual rate, close to that
in the two previous months taken together.
(4)
The following table shows recent developments in the
money supply and the adjusted credit proxy. Recent Paths of Key Monetary Aggregates (Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars) Adjusted Credit Proxy Indicated at . Last Meeting-
Actual Results
Money Supply Indicated at , Last Meeting-
Actual Results
1970 Month August
322.0
321.9
206.2
(210.6)2/
206.0
(210.5)2/
September
324.6
324.5
205.9
(209.9)
206.3
(210.8)
9
323.7
324.3
204.2
(208.2)
205.8
(210.2)
16
323.5
324. 9
205.9
(209.9)
207.1
(211.6)
23
325.4
324.0
205.9
(209.9)
205.0
(209.6)
30
325.7
323.7
207.5
(211.5)
206.4
(210.9)
7
326.2
325.3
206.8
(210.8)
207.0
(211.5)
326.1
324.4
206.9
(210.9)
205.7
(210.2)
Week ending September
October
14 e
/
% Annual Rates of Change September over August Third Quarterl/ (Sept. over June) e/ 1/
9.5
17.5
9.7
17.2
% Annual Rates of Change
- 1.5 (-
4.0)
1.7
(
1.7)
4.5 (
5.0)
5.3
(
5.0)
partly estimates. Alternative A path of previous Blue Book.
2/ Figures in parentheses reflect estimated money supply levels and per cent annual rates of growth after correction for bias. 3/ The third quarter annual rates of increase for the money supply measured on a quarterly average over quarterly average basis were 3.7 per cent on a published basis and 4.6 per cent corrected for bias.
(5)
The following table summarizes seasonally adjusted annual
rates of change in major financial aggregates for selected periods: Past Year (Sept. over
First Half of 1970 (June over
Sept.)
December)
Total Reserves
6.7
- 0.2
Nonborrowed Reserves
8.8
1.9
24.3
Money Supply
5.9
4.0
5.3
(5.2)1/ Large CD's (dollar amount)2/
(5.5)1/
Third Quarter (Sept. over June) 19.1
(5.0)1/
$9.5
$ 1.6
$ 8.7
7.3
5.7
15.3
5.0
4.5
7.8
3.3
24.1
6.7
3.5
17.2
Total loans and investments of all commercial banks
6.3
1.9
16.3
L&I plus loans sold outriiht to affiliates and foreign braaches
6.6
3.9
13.2
Nonbank commercial paper
8.1
14.2
Other time and savings deposits Savings account at nonbank
thrift institutions
9.4
Member bank deposits and related sources of funds Total member bank deposits
(Bank credit proxy) Proxy plus Euro-dollars and other nondeposit sources Commercial bank credit (Month end)
NOTE:
-17.7
1/
All items are averages of daily figures (with "other nondeposit sources" based on an average for the month of Wednesday data), except the commercial bank credit series, which are based on total outstanding on last Wednesday of month, and the nonbank commercial paper and thrift institutions series, which are end-of-month data. All additions to the total member bank deposit series are seasonally unadjusted numbers, since data have not been available for a long enough time to make seasonal adjustments. Figures in parentheses reflect estimated percentage annual rates of growth
2/
Actual dollar change over the period in billions.
in money supply after correction of levels for bias.
Prospective developments
(6)
If the Committee wishes to continue the policy stance
adopted at the previous meeting, the language incorporated in the second paragraph of the directive at the last meeting could be continued, with an amendment to take account of the Treasury financing schedule, as follows: "To implement this policy, the Committee seeks to promote some easing of conditions in credit markets and moderate growth in money and attendant bank credit expansion over the months ahead.
System open market
operations until the next meeting of the Committee shall be conducted with a view to maintaining bank reserves and money market conditions consistent with that objective, TAKING ACCOUNT OF THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCINGS." (7)
"Moderate growth in money and attendant bank credit expansion
over the months ahead" could be interpreted to encompass a 5 per cent annual rate of growth for the money stock over the fourth quarter.
It would appear,
at this point, that such a money growth would be accompanied by around a 9 per cent rate of expansion in the adjusted bank credit proxy.
Monthly
paths for money and bank credit consistent with these growth rates are shown in the table below, along with the associated supply of bank reserves needed to sustain bank deposits.
-6Adjusted Credit Proxy
Money Supplyl/ Month
(210.8) 206.3
Levels
Total Reserves
Annual Rate of change
Levels
(1.7) 1.7
324.5
9.7
29.2
(211.6) (proj.) 207.1
(4.5) 4.5
326.4
7.0
29.1
Sept.
Oct.
Levels
Annual Rate of change
Annual Rate of change
31.0 -16.5
Nov.
"
(212.7) 208.2
(6.0) 6.0
329.4
11.0
29.9
33.5
Dec.
"
(213.4)
(4.0)
331.6
8 .5
30.0
5.5
Quarter 4th (Dec. over
5.0
Sept.)
9.0
7.5
1/ For the money supply, the figures in parenthesis represent the unpublished figures corrected for bias. The quarter-over-quarter money supply growth for the fourth quarter would be 5 per cent also. (8) To sustain a 5 per cent growth rate in the money supply over the fourth quarter may entail some declines in interest rates from current levels between now and year-end.
The economy is expected to be generally sluggish in the
current quarter, partly because of the auto strike and its ramifications, with a consequent slackening in the transactions needs for cash.
Business loan demands
at banks are likely to be sluggish, if the rate of inventory accumulation declines as expected and as corporations continue to finance heavily in capital markets partly for debt structure reasons.
Under these circumstances, injections
of bank reserves through open market operations to achieve the desired money growth are likely to be reflected, among other things, in relatively sizable bank purchases of U.S. Treasury and other market securities. rates may edge downwards on balance.
As a result, interest
(9)
The actual movement of short- and long-term rates will
depend in large part on bank liquidity preferences, Treasury financing strategy, the volume of new corporate and municipal issues, bank loan demands, and shifts in market expectations.
Banks are still likely to
have a general preference for more liquid, short-term instruments. However, there is some evidence that more banks are beginning to make longer-term investments in the municipal market; these banks have already restored some liquidity and may be attracted by wider spreads of longterm over short-term rates.
Moreover, the drop in short-term market
rates has come to make both large CD's and other time deposits be a more permanent source of funds.
seem to
Such considerations may encourage
banks to be more willing buyers of a long option in the Treasury's forthcoming mid-November financing, to be announced on October 22, with books open in the last week of October. (10)
While it is too early at this writing to be certain about
the form of the forthcoming Treasury financing, it would appear that it may entail a rights offering of two note issues, plus a cash offering to cover attrition and whatever additional cash may be desired. portion would have to be settled on November 16.
The rights
The cash portion may
be settled on that date, or possibly, if the attrition is low enough, at a later time; the cash portion could take the form of a bill auction or perhaps an auction of a short note.
In any event, the Treasury will have
to raise some additional cash by early December.
During the fourth
quarter, the Treasury is likely to have to raise about $7 billion of net
new cash mainly in the bill area, including additions to the weekly and monthly bill auctions and the $2-1/2 billion tax bill financing currently in the market.
This may cushion further declines in short-
term rates. (11)
A continuing large calendar of corporate and municipal
issues will tend to inhibit declines in long-term rates.
Nevertheless,
investors have shown a desire to lock up high long-term yields--as indicated by the market absorption of a huge volume of long-term securities with little upward yield pressure.
Thus, the absorption capacity
of the market should tend to offset upward yield pressure from a continued very large supply of new offerings.
And long-term market rates
could work lower if weak loan demand leads to liberalization of bank lending terms and/or greater bank interest in longer-term securities. (12)
Between now and the next meeting, day-to-day operating
targets for money market conditions designed to lead to injection of sufficient bank reserves to promote the desired growth path for other monetary aggregates and lead to some easing of credit market conditions might include a Federal funds rate in a 6--6-1/2 per cent range, member bank borrowings averaging around $350-$450 million per week, and net borrowed reserves in a wide 0-$500 million range.
The 3-month bill rate
might be expected to be in a 5-3/4--6-1/8 per cent range. (13)
With the bill rate at this level, banks will be in a
position to obtain large CD's virtually throughout the whole maturity spectrum, although investor interest in longer-term CD's thus far seems
-9quite modest,
Also banks may not be as aggressive as in recent months in
the CD area, and offering rates on short CD's have dropped while a few banks have even reduced offering rates on 3- and 6-month CD's below ceiling rates.
Thus, the rate of increase in time deposits may still be
at about a 22 per cent annual rate in the fourth quarter, although this is about 10 percentage points less rapid than in the third quarter.
Some
of the new bank deposit funds will be used to repay nondeposit sources, as banks have no further incentive to maintain a high level of borrowing through the round-about channel of the commercial paper market and as they react to the unfavorable yield spread of Euro-dollars over CD rates.
It
is not clear to what extent banks will take account of yield relationships in their behavior toward Euro-dollar borrowings, but we have estimated all outstanding non-deposit funds will drop by about$150 million per week through mid-November, and by lesser amounts thereafter, thus contributing to the slower expected growth rate in the adjusted credit proxy for the fourth quarter as compared with the third. (14) 7
In October the adjusted credit proxy may rise at about a
per cent annual rate, down about 3 percentage points from September,
as shown in the table in paragraph (7).
On the other hand, money supply
growth may rebound to around a 4-1/2 per cent annual rate from the 1-1/2 per cent growth rate of September.
Both the credit proxy and the money
supply are expected to rise a little more rapidly in November, as the Treasury financing stimulates some additional credit and money flows.
-10Weekly paths for the monetary aggregates through mid-November that seem consistant with these developments are shown below. Money Supply1/
Credit Proxy adjusted
Total Reserves
Week ending October
November
3/
14t/
205.7
(210.2)
324.4
28.4
21
207.9
(212.4)
325.7
29.5
28
207.7
(212.2)
329.1
29.5
4
206.9
(211.4)
329. 1
29.5
11
208.1
(212.6)
329.6
29.9
18
208.6
(213.1)
329.4
30.0
Estimated.
1/ For the money supply, corrected for bias.
the figures in
parenthesis represent the figures
SELECTED MONETARY AGGREGATES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
MONEY AND GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS
BANK CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
WEEKLY AVERAGES
I
-210 TOTAL MONEY SUPPLY -200
PRIVATE DEMAND DEPOSITS
-1280
I
I
II
II
GOVT DEPOSITS MEMBER BANKS
I
I I
1969
I I
1970
1969
1970
1969
1970
SELECTED MONETARY AGGREGATES - Cont. COMMERCIAL BANK TIME DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MEMBER BANK RESERVES WEEKLY AVERAGES
BIL
TIME AND SAVINGS
1969
1970
1969
1970
MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES INTEREST RATES Short-term
1969
1970
INTEREST RATES Long-term
Table 1 MARGINAL RESERVE MEASURES (Dollar amounts in millions, based on period averages of daily figures) Member Period
Free reserves
Excess reserves
Total
Banks Borrowin Re s e r v e C i t Other Major banks 8 N.Y. Outside N.Y.
s Country
Monthly (reserves weeks ending in): 1969--January February March April May June July August
477 580 635 - 844 -1,116 -1,078 -1,045 - 997
359 256 202 187 243 277 266 214
836 836 837 1,031 1,359 1,355 1,311 1,211
131 62 58 85 123 57 89 81
302 255 233 411 346 459 250 253
149 215 254 260 397 288 364 256
253 304 293 275 493 550 608 621
September
-
744
282
1,026
83
236
222
485
October
-
995
195
1,190
106
327
293
464
November December
-
975 849
238 278
1,213 1,127
120 268
387 310
250 220
456 329
-
759
169
928
148
287
232
261
February March April May
-
916 751 687 765
210 129 178 159
1,126 880 865 924
106 90 227 165
317 225 331 241
289 287 119 228
414 278 188 290
June
-
736
171
907
140
289
217
261
July
-1,134
183
1,317
218
460
348
291
August
-
706
175
881
143
278
273
187
September p
-
379
230
609
101
117
272
119
I 8 15 22 29
-
610 317 915 811 783
339 179 102 158 111
949 496 1,017 969 894
232 -322 517 63
264 269 509 252 361
161 49 47 81 259
292 178 139 119 211
May
6 13 20 27
-
424 782 965 889
350 28 214 44
774 810 1,179 933
93 150 332 86
248 254 310 150
220 202 243 247
213 204 7q4 450
June
3 10
-1,029 - 721
195 136
1,224 857
269 195
354 238
262 169
339 255
17 24
-
390 799
268 88
658 887
-97
251 313
188 248
219 229
July
1 8 15 22 29
- 718 -1,219 -1,451 -1,201 -1,078
273 75 230 185 153
991 1,294 1,681 1,386 1,231
93 360 467 139 29
260 412 569 531 528
304 283 371 395 388
333 240 274 321 286
Aug.
5 12 19 26
-
822 894 589 522
188 280 92 138
1,010 1,174 681 660
114 382 21 56
362 362 243 144
303 300 229 262
231 130 188 198
Sept.
2 9 16 23 30 p
-
482 348 144 507 413
178 415 356 -47 250
660 763 500 460 663
79 160 89 75 103
181 143 93 77 93
221 343 224 259 312
179 117 94 49 155
Oct.
7 p 14 p
-
27 421
423 32
396 453
-21
4 21
303 338
89 73
1970--January
1970--.Apr.
p - Preliminary.
Table 2
(In Reserve
A
AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Retrospective Changes, Seasonally Adjusted per cent, annual rates based on monthly averages of daily figures)
ere
a tes
Variables_
___Monetary
S up p 1 y Private Demand Currencypi
M o n e y Period
Total Reserves
Nonborrowed Reserves
Required Reserves
MTota eTotal Deposits
Annually 1968 1969
+ 7.8 -
Semi-annually 1st Half 1969 2nd Half 1969 1st Half 1970 Quarterly 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
1969 1969 1969 1969
1st Quarter 1970 2nd Quarter 1970 3rd Quarter 1970 Monthly 1969--January February March April May June July August September October November December 1970--January February March April May June July August September p
p - Preliminary.
1.6
+ 0.7 - 3.9 - 0.2
+ 0.1 + 1.2 -
9.3
+ 1.4 -
2.9
+ 2.6 +19.1
+ 7.5 - 3.4 - 3.8 - 8.5
+19.9 -
7.6
-22.5 -
5.6
-11.7 + 9.7 + 6.3 + 3.1 -12.0 +21.3 -13.9 + 0.5 + 6.0 +23.3 +31.0
Deposits
C Commercial bank time deposits adjusted
Credit Proxy + Euro-dollars + other nondep.
Addendum: Nonbank commercial
sources of funds
paper
+ 6.0 - 3.0
+ 7.9 - 1.2
+ 9.0 - 4.0
+ 7.2 + 2.5
+ 7.4 + 5.8
+ 7.1 + 1.5
+11.5 - 5.3
n.a. n.a.
- 3.7 - 2.4 + 1.9
+ 1.0 -3.3
- 3.5 - 4.6 + 3.3
+ 4.3 + 0.6 + 4.0
+ 6.5 + 4.9 + 8.3
+ 3.7 - 0.6 + 2.9
- 4.0 - 6.7 + 7.1
n.a. - 1.2 + 3.5
+27.6 +14.0
-
+ + +
- 4.8 - 2.2
+ 4.1 + 4.5
- 9.4 + 0.1
+ 3.2 + 4.2 - 1.3
- 5.1 - 3.0 -13.3
+ 1.2
n.a. - 4.3 + 2.0
+31.0 +22.4
+ 2.9 + 2.8 + 5.4
+ 0.4 +13.8 +31.6
+ 7.1 + 1.6
-10.0 - 4.7 - 0.6
2.8 4.7 4.8 0.1
1.7 0.2 8.6 2.0
- 0.4 + 4.1 +24.3
- 2.5 + 2.6 +18.9
+ 0.6 + 6.0
+ 3.8
+24.1
+ 5.3
+ 4.5 -4.9 - 8.0 -12.0 + 6.0 - 8.2 -19.3 - 2.8 + 7.7 -17.9 + 5.5 +12.1
+12.7 - 3.0 - 4.4 - 5.0 +14.3 - 8.6 -17.6 - 7.6 - 0.8 -10.4 + 9.3 + 6.9
- 3.2 - 1.2 -10.1 + 4.9 - 1.2 -10.2 -18.9 -11.3 + 1.7 - 9.2 + 9.7
+ + + + + +
+ 7.2 -15.6 + 7.5 +25.4 -19.0 + 6.2 -16.1 +48.8 +39.8
+ 5.0 -12.9 + 0.6 +22.2 -15.1 + 0.9 + 7.9 +22.0 +26.0
- 4.2 - 8.0 +14.0 +16.8 - 4.5 + 5.8 +22.7 +29.2 +19.0
+ 9.0 -10.7 +13.2 +10.7 + 3.5 - 1.8 + 4.1 +10.0 + 1.7
+ 4.2
6.2 3.1 3.1 7.9 1.2 4.2
+ 1.8 - 1.8
+ + + + + + + +
2.8 8.3 8.2 2.7 8.1 8.1 5.4 8.0
- 2.6
+ 0.6 + 1.2 + 1.8
+10.6 + 7.9 + 5.2 + 7.8 + 7.8 + 7.7 +15.3 + 5.0 + 7.5 +
2.5
+ 2.5
+ 0.8 +11.0 - 1.6
+ 3.1 + 1.6
- 4.7 - 0.8 - 0.8 - 1.6 + 2.3 +10.1 -15.5 +14.1 +10.9 - 2.3 + 2.3 +12.3 + 1.5
- 3.6 - 5.4 -18.5 -19.4 - 2.5 - 3.7 - 0.6 + 4.3 -12.4 - 0.6 +14.4 +22.2 +10.3 + 8.4 +35.2 +28.4 +28.9
+ 0.5 + 6.5 +17.2
+ -
7.0 7.5 1.6 7.9
+13.1 + 0.8 - 3.5 - 5.5 +10.7 +13.7 - 1.2 + 7.0 +18.1
+23.2 + 9.7
+13.2 +14.3 -17.7
+26.4 +23.8 +40.7 +20.0 +11.7 +34.2 + 3.6 +35.7 + 0.4 +71.3 +10.7 -37.3 -88.4 -14.1 +53.0
Table 3 AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Seasonally Adjusted (Based on monthly averages of daily figures) Money Supply
Monthl: 1969--January February March April May June July August September October November December 1970--January February March April May June July August September p
1/ 2/ 3/
Commercal bank time deposits adjusted 4/
Member Bank Deposits Supported by Required Reserves Time Private U.S. Gov't. demand demand e i bank memTber reer reere reserve reservesm a deposits ps depots s sdeposits deposits 1/ (In millions of dollars) ( In b i ll i on s
o f
28,139 28,060 27,972 27,775 28,235 28,056 27,530 27,401 27,402 27, 354 27,783 27,928
27,318 27,206 27,024 26,754 26,888 26,705 26,275 26,214 26,383 26, 210 26,538 26,806
27,902 27,832 27,729 27,614 27,942 27,742 27,334 27,161 27,144 27,129 27,548 27,707
297.0 296.7 294.2 295.4 295.1 292.6 288.0 285.3 285.7 283.5 285.8 285.8
163.2 161.0 160.5 160.1 159.3 158.1 155.1 152.5 152.1 151.5 151.1 151.5
128.4 129.1 128.9 129.4 130.0 130.5 130.5 129.9 129.2 128.9 129.1 129.4
5.4 6.7 4.8 5.9 5.9 4.0 2.4 2.9 4.4 3.1 5.6 4.9
195.8 196.3 196.8 198.1 198.3 199.0 199.3 199.0 L99.0 199.1 199.3. 199.6
43.5 43.8 44.1 44.2 44.5 44.8 45.0 45.3 45.2 45.6 45.9 45.9
152.3 152.5 152.6 154.0 153.8 154.2 154.4 153.8 153.7 153.6 153.4 153.7
203.2 202.4 202.3 202.3 201.7 200.8 197.7 194.5 194.1 193.5 193.4 194.1
28,001 27,722 27,723 28,216 27,890 27,902 28,041 28,585 29,234
26,966 26,615 26,782 27,350 26,916 27,056 26,694 27,780 28,702
27,823 27,523 27,536 28,046 27,692 27,713 27,896 28,408 29,023
284.8 282.9 286.2 290.2 289.1 290.5 296.0 303.2 308.0
149.4 148.8 150.6 153.5 154.6 155.7 160.7 164.9 169.5
130.1 128.5 129.8 131.4 131.4 130.0 130.9 131.9 132.3
5.3 5.6 5.9 5.2 3.0 4.8 4.4 6.4 6.2
201.1 199.3 201.5 203.3 203.9 203.6 204.3 206.0 206.3
46.1 46.4 46.7 47.0 47.6 47.8 48.1 48.2 48.3
155.0 153.0 154.8 156.2 156.2 155.9 156.2 157.8 158.0
192.1 192.0 194.3 197.9 199.6 201.0 206.9 211.8 216.9
/ SA Required
Reserve Aggregates
Period
Total
Nonborrowed
Total
I
Currency 2/ d o 1 a r s
Total
Private demand deposits 3
Credit Prcxy + Euro-dollars + Addendum: other nondep. Nonbank commercial sources of pper paper
307.5 305.7 303.8 304 302 =05.5
25.5 26.1 26.6 27.5 27.9 28.2
305.7
29.0
304.8 303.4 306.1 309.6 309.3 311.1 315.8 321.9 324.5
29.1 30.0 30.0 31.8 32.0 31.0 28.8 28.4 29.7*
Private demand deposits include demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations and net interbank deposits. Includes currency outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the vaults of all commercial banks. Includes (1) demand deposits at all commercial banks, other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government, less cash items in process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (2) foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve Banks. 4/ Excludes interbank and U.S. Government time deposits. * - Last Wednesday figure. 5/ Includes increases in required reserves due to changes in Regulations M and D of approximately $400 million since October 16. 1969.
Table 4 AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Seasonally Adjusted
Member Bank Deposits Supported by Required Reserves
Reserve Aggregates er i od
reserves reserves
onborrowed
Required
Total
reserves reserves
reserves reserves
member bank
Ti demep deposits
U.S. Gov't. demand
Private demand deposits
deposits
Money Supply
I/
Total
deposits
1 8 15 22 29
(In millions of dollars) 27,954 27,005 27,605 27,745 27,229 27,566 28,390 27,363 28,290 28,448 27,516 28,330 28,282 27,288 28,051
290.5 291.6 289.9 290.7 288.4
152.0 152.9 153.2 153.8 154.2
May
6 13 20 27
28,481 27,696 27,965 27,504
27,710 26,876 26,754 26,559
28,101 27,652 27,702 27,424
288.9 287.8 289.3 290.2
154.3 154.3 154.7 154.7
131.4 131.2 132.4 131.3
3.2 2.3 2.2 4.2
203.9 203.5 205.1 203.8
June
3 10 17 24
27,888 27,917 28,002 27,645
26,702 27,028 27,419 26,870
27,602 27,714 27,744 27,659
290.1 289.9 290.3 289.9
155.0 155.3 155.4 155.6
132.1 130.5 129.8 128.8
3.0 4.1 5.1 5.5
July
1 8 15 22 29
28,077 27,698 27,985 28,321 28,151
27,061 26,415 26,414 26,850 26,941
27,794 27,664 27,907 28,059 27,973
291.5 294.3 294.3 294.9 299.3
156.7 158.6 159.8 161.3 162.7
129.5 131.8 130.6 130.3 131.0
Aug.
5 12 19 26
28,052 28,684 28,612 28,689
27,052 27,610 27,916 28,064
27,879 28,440 28,510 28,502
300.6 301.4 302.4 305.5
163.7 164.1 164.6 165.7
Sept.
2 9 16 23 30 p
28,801 29,402 29,482 28,878 29,298
28,160 28,741 28,996 28,518 28,708
28,623 29,068 29,126 28,985 29,028
306.8 307.1 308.3 307.9 308.2
Oct.
7 p 14 p
28,551 28,189
28,198 27,784
28,138 28,131
310.5 309.9
1970--Apr.
( In b i 1 1 o n s 132.6 5.9 132.8 5.9 132.1 4.6 130.3 6.6 129.8 4.4
Currency
Private demand
2/
deposits 3.
o f d o 1 1 a r s ) 206.8 46.9 204.7 46.9 203.7 47.1 202.5 47.1 201.7 47.3
4/
funds funds
paper paper
159.9 157.8 156.6 155.4 154.5
196.0 197.2 197.5 198.2 198.8
310.1 311.0 309.4 309.9 308.0
47.5 47.6 47.6 47.6
156.4 155.9 157.5 156.2
199.1 199.2 199.7 199.9
309.0 307.9 309.5 310.6
31.7 32.1 32.0 32.3
204.0 203.4 203.9 202.1
47.6 47.7 47.8 47.8
156.4 155.7 156.0 154.3
200.0 200.5 200.7 201.0
310.8 310.6 311.1 310.5
32.1 ?2.4 31.7 32.0
5.3 4.0 3.9 3.4 5.6
204.5 205.6 204.3 202.8 204.3
47.8 48.1 48.0 48.1 48.0
156.6 157.5 156.2 154.8 156.2
202.3 204.5 206.0 207.6 209.1
312.2 314.2 314.2 315,0 318.9
29.7 29.8 29.0 29.3 29.8
131.4 131.6 132.2 132.4
5.6 5.7 5.6 7.4
204.5 206.1 206.7 206.2
48.1 48.2 48.2 48.1
156.4 157.9 158.4 158.0
210.2 210.9 211.6 212.7
319.4 320.3 321.3 324.2
29.5 29.6 1 29.6 1 30.0
166.8 168.1 169.2 170.2 171.1
132.9 131.9 133.2 131.5 131.9
7.1 7.1 5.9 6.2 5.1
206.2 205.8 207.1 205.0 206.4
48.1 48.4 48.3 48.3 48.1
158.1 157.4 158.8 156.7 158.3
213.8 215.4 216.6 217.7 218.8
325.0 324.3 324.9 324.0 323.7
i 29.5 29.7 30.1 30.4 29.3
172.0 172.9
133.1 132.1
5.4 4.9
207.0 205.7
48.2 48.3
158.8 157.4
219.7 221.2
325.3 324.2
30.0 n.a.
Private demand deposits include demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations and net interbank deposits. Includes currency outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the vaults of all commercial banks. Includes (1) demand deposits at all commercial banks, other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government, process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (2) foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve Banks. 4/ Excludes interbank and U.S. Government time deposits. 5/ Weekly nonbank commercial paper are not seasonally adjusted. i.a. - Not available. 1/ 2/ 3/
Commercial Credit Proxy+ bank time Euro-dollars + Addendun:5 deposits other nondep. Nonbank commercia sources of adjusted
less cash items in
Table 5
SOURCE OF FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT Retrospective Changes (Dollar amounts in
Period
Total Federal Reserve credit (Excl.
Year: 1968 (12/27/67 - 12/25/68) 1969 (12/25/68 - 12/31/69)
millions of dollars, based on weekly averages of daily figures)
U.S. Government securities Total
float)
holdings
Bills I/
+3,298 +5,192
+3,757 +5,539
Other
(
--
)
+4,279 (
--
)
+2,143
Repurchase agreements
+1,176 + 707
+
21 206
Federal Agency Securities +
3 r,7
Bankers' acceptances +
52 35
+ + +
18 8 32 28 16
Weekly: 1970--Apr.
May
June
July
1 8
+
179
-
720
15 22 29
+ +
947 222
6 13 20 27
+1,047
+1,154
+ + -
131 512 664
+ -
397 50 221
3 10 17 24
+ -
b39 213
+
224
+ + +
255 143 539
-
449
-
678
1 8
+
544
+
445
+
231
15 22 29 Aug.
5
12 19 26 Sept.
Oct.
71)
40
--
)
+
156
--
)
225 182 214
+ -
2 72
--
)
134
-
)
108
--
) ) ) )
36 202 138 138
--- ) )
--
)
71 15 86
-
17
73
+1,181
+ +
362 591
+ + + +
293 266 644 209
+ +
31 193
-
)
--
)
-
236 358
+
222
-
165
231 343
+
189
+ +
473 248 982 691
7 p 14 p
-
486
II
-
-
,
638
+
632 444
)
+
-
+
)
185 460
+
-
145) -
-
+
145)
-
2 9 16 23 30 p
____________________________I
1/
-
111
-
29) 42)
42
188
247 196 9 452
71) -
)
-
)
--
)
133 123 250 506 196
90)
256) 346) --
)
--
)
18 56
I
Figures in parenthesis reflect reserve effect of match sale-purchase agreement. p - Preliminary.
4
______________
6 38 19 23
2 14
Member banks borrowings
+ +
514 245
Table 6
Pe d
Year: 1968 (12/27/67-12/25/68) 1969 (12/25/68-12/31/69)
MAJOR SOURCES AND USES OF RESERVES Retrospective and Prospective Changes (Dollar amounts in millions, based on weekly averages of daily figures) r e s e r v e s of u p p 1 y a f f e c t i F a c t o r s Other nonmember Foreign Currency Gold and Federal Reserve deposits and deposits Float Treasury outside spec. dr. credit (excl. accounts F.R. loans gold bansand rhts / float) banks and gold loans F.R. accounts serves) s e t c t on r Sc a t i (S ign +3,757 +5,539
-2,067
-3,221 -2,676
+
928
-
813
+1,309 + 241
+
S67 54
Weekly:
1970--Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
1 8 15 22 29
+
179
-
720
+-
+
947
+
-
222 - 17
+
6 13 20 27
+1,047 + 131 + 512 -
664
3 10 17 24
+
639
-
213
+
224
-
449
1 8 15 22 29
+ 544 + 231 +1,181 -
185 460
5 12 19 26
+ + +
362 591 231
-
343
2 9 16 23 30
+ +
189 473
-
248 982
7 14
+
691
-
486
1/ For retrospective details, see TaLle 5. p - Pralimimary.
+ +
+
+
+
+ + +
+ +
51 9A
+ -
869 898
=
Change in total
= Bank use of reserves Re d Exces Required reserve reserves
reserves
r
+1,508 +1,448
+1,563 +1,340
+
55 108
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (1970, October 19). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19701020
@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19701020,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Bluebook},
year = {1970},
month = {Oct},
howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19701020},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}