Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

1

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing).

2

A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Content last modified 6/05/2009.

(CONFIDENTIAL

FR)

April 14, 1972

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee

By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

April 14, 1972

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) Seasonally adjusted total reserves available to support private nonbank deposits (RPD) expanded somewhat less rapidly in March than targeted, as shown in attached Table 1.

However, RPD in April appears to be growing

more than anticipated, and for the two months combined the growth rate seems likely to be at an annual rate of about 13-1/2 per cent. an adjusted 10-1/2--14-1/2 per cent target range.

This compares with

Originally, the Committee

had set the target range at 9-13 per cent, but for comparability the range should be adjusted upward by 1-1/2 percentage points to allow for corrections in the distribution of reserves between private and interbank deposits necessitated by the introduction of the new PEPS system for clearing international transfers.1/ (2)

In March measures of the money stock and the adjusted credit

proxy expanded somewhat more than expectedas shown in attached Table 2. A slowing in the rate of growth is anticipated for April, although partial data for the early part of the month suggest that all three of the money and credit aggregates are running somewhat ahead of rates for the month indicated in pattern II at the last meeting.

1/

See appendix for explanation.

-2(3) At the time of the last Committee meeting, Federal funds were trading around 3-7/8 per cent, below the level thought likely to emerge in achieving the desired RPD growth rate.

As the intermeeting period progressed,

the funds rate edged steadily higher from 3.91 to 4.18 per cent, with recent daily trading most frequently around 4-1/4 per cent.

With the money market

tightening and with increasing evidence of strengthening economic activity, other interest rates also rose during the period--generally by 20-40 basis points on private short-term market instruments and by 10-30 basis points in bond markets.

The 3-month bill rate, however, was virtually unchanged

over the period, as demand for very short maturities expanded in the face of anticipated interest rate increases. (4)

The following table compares seasonally adjusted annual rates

of change in major financial aggregates for recent periods,

-3-

1971

Total Reserves

Nonborrowed Reserves

8.0

Reserves available to support

First Quarter (March

Fourth and First Quarters Combined

over

over

(Mar. over

Sept.)

Dec.)

2.2

10.2

6.9

11.1

5.8

11.5

Fourth Quarter (Dec.

Sept.) 6.2

private nonbank deposits Concepts of Money M1 (currenty plus demand deposits 1/)

9.5

5.3

6.2

1.1

11. 1

8.0

13.3

10.8

13.3

9.6

15.5

12.8

9.7

11.4

10.7

8.7

16.2

12.6

M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M (M plus deposits at thrift 3 2 institutions) Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (Bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/

9.5 10.7

Short-term market paper (Actual $ change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper

$ 7.9 -1. 8

-0.1 0.1

Other than interbank and U.S. Government. Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches.

NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift

institutions--which are either end-of-month or last Wednesday of month figures.

Prospective developments Of the two patterns summarized below, pattern I incorporates

(5)

essentially the same second quarter growth rates for monetary aggregates adopted at the last Committee meeting. rates of growth in

Pattern II shows somewhat slower (The patterns in detail are

the monetary aggregates.

shown on the next page.) Pattern I Federal funds rate Member bank borrowings 3-month Treasury bill rate

Pattern II

3-3/4--4-3/4

4-1/2--5-1/2

50--200

150--400

3-1/2--4-1/2

4--5-1/4.

Growth in M 1 (SAAR) April May June 2nd Q.

(6)

8% 9% 5-1/2% 7-1/2%

8% 8% 4% 7%

Rates of expansion in reserves available to support

nonbank deposits consistent with the two patterns are as follows: Pattern I April

Pattern II

11

10

May

8-1/2

6-1/2

April-May

9-1/2

8

2nd Q.

7-1/2

6

The reserve path shown here for pattern I represents a logical continuation of the path adopted at the last Committee meeting.

The April

increase in these reserves would put the average level of such reserves

Alternative Monthly and Quarterly Patterns for Key Monetary Aggregates

M1

1972

Apr. May June

I

II

I

II

235.2 237.0 238.1

235.2 236.8 237.6

483.4 486.8 489.6

483.3 486.2 488.5

Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth Apr. May June

8.0 9.0 5.5

2nd Q.

8.0 8.0 4.0

8.0 8.5 7.0

8.0 7.0 5.5

7.0

8.0

7.0

Adjusted Credit Proxy

1972

Apr. May June

374.9 374.2 377.3

Total Reserves

II

I

374.8 373.9 376.8

32.7 32.5 32.6

32.7 32.4 32.5

II

Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth Apr. May June

8.5 -2.0 10.0

8.5 -3.0 9.5

26.0 -10.5 5.0

25.5 -12.5 3.5

2nd Q.

5.5

5.0

7.0

5.5

-6somewhat above the mid-point of the earlier range (after technical adjustment) but below the upper end,

The rate of increase in RPD is targeted to

decelerate over the two months May and June.

And the rate of growth for

the second quarter as a whole leads to a June level of RPD that is slightly above the mid-point of the earlier adjusted path because recent experience has suggested a somewhat greater bank demand for excess reserves. (7)

If the Committee instructs the Manager to achieve the

pattern I reserve path and aggregates, the staff expects that the Federal funds rate would remain near or slightly above the 4-1/4 per cent mid-point of the 3-3/4--4-3/4 per cent range associated with this pattern.

However,

if such a funds rate prevails through the second quarter, we would also expect growth in the aggregates, particularly M1, in the third quarter.

to remain generally strong

For M1, it appears likely that such a posture would

lead to third quarter growth on the order of 8-1/2 per cent, assuming that transactions demands will accelerate along with projected GNP. (8)

Attainment of pattern II reserve objectives in the second

quarter would probably lead to a funds rate moving up to an average of around 5--5-1/4 per cent fairly promptly, at or slightly above the mid-point of the 4-1/2--5-1/2 per cent range shown for the pattern.

This would be

associated not only with some slowing in M1 growth in the second quarter, but would encourage a lower third quarter growth rate of M1, perhaps on the order of 6-1/2 per cent, annual rate. (9)

Short-term markets are likely to have to absorb continua-

tion of the recent stronger business loan performance and greater than seasonal Treasury cash requirements (though much lower than earlier anticipated by

-7the market).

Nevertheless, given the aggregates of pattern I, any further rise

in short-term interest rates might be minor, since it does not now seem probable that the funds rate would need to rise to the top end of the range shown in paragraph (5).

However, the 3-month bill rate, which has been

running low relative to the Federal funds and other short-term rates, may show a noticeable increase.

Under pattern II, with a rising Federal funds

rate, short-term rates would be expected to adjust upward substantially. Such a rate rise would be reinforced by spreading expectations of a discount rate increase. (10)

The long-term bond market appears to have adjusted in

good part to the recent rise in short rates.

On balance, no more than a

moderate further rise in long rates seems likely so long as the Federal funds rate stays around its recent 4-1/4 per cent level.

Security dealer positions

are light, and corporate bond offerings are not expected to be heavy. Treasury refunding to be announced on April 26 is comparatively small.

The There

apparently will be no need to raise new cash at that time, and the public holds only $2-1/2 billion of the issues maturing in mid-May. (11)

A rise in the funds rate toward the upper end of the

pattern I range, and certainly into the pattern II range, would be very likely, however, to spark further significant increases in long-term rates. As market rates generally rose further, this would, moreover, begin to be reflected in rising primary mortgage market rates.

The secondary mortgage

market has already shown signs of caution, and a further general rise in short- and long-term market rates would be likely to reduce inflows to savings institutions and to induce diversified lenders to shift some funds away from mortgages.

(12)

The anticipated behavior of M 2 and the credit proxy over

the second quarter is little different from what was presented to the Committee four weeks ago.

Growth in time deposits other than large CD's is

expected to be significantly slower in the second quarter than in the first in both patterns I and II, and the slowdown is greater in response to the higher short-term market rates expected in pattern II.

Reflecting slower

growth in time deposits, as well as a substantial drop in U. S. Government deposits, the bank credit proxy should expand at a much more moderate rate in both patterns.

However, as market rates rise, especially under pattern

II, major money market banks can be expected to raise interest rates offered on time deposits, both large and small, to keep deposit inflows from slowing markedly further in what appears to be a period of developing loan demand.

Proposed directive (13)

This section presents three alternative formulations for

the operational paragraph of the directive.

All continue the same language

with respect to reserves and money market conditions contained in the directives of the last three meetings, and all include a qualifying instruction to the Manager to take account of the forthcoming Treasury refunding, the terms of which are expected to be announced on April 26, as noted in paragraph (10).

It is proposed to delete the reference to international

developments on the assumption that the Committee will not consider it necessary to take specific account of those developments in the currently quieter environment surrounding the exchange markets.

(14)

Alternative A.

"To implement this policy, while taking account of

possible] and development international [DEL:

THE FORTHCOMING

Treasury financing, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that will support moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead." Alternative A language is proposed for possible use if the Committee wishes to adopt essentially the same second-quarter growth rates for the monetary aggregates that were adopted at the meeting on March 21. The pattern of specifications for this alternative is described in paragraph (5). (15)

Alternative B.

"To implement this policy, while taking account of possible] and developments international [DEL:

CAPITAL MARKET

-10DEVELOPMENTS AND THE FORTHCOMING Treasury financing, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that will support moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead." The language of alternative B differs from that of alternative A in that it includes a reference to developments in capital markets.

It is

proposed for possible use in the event that members of the Committee wish to provide some safeguard against the risk of a significant near-term rise in interest rates, particularly long-term rates.

The pattern of specifications

for this alternative could be the same as that for alternative A, but the phrase "taking account of capital market developments" could be construed as instructing the Manager to be more liberal in providing reserves and more cautious in allowing the Federal funds rate to move upward if significant increases in long-term interest rates appear to be in process. (16)

Alternative C.

This language differs from that of alternative

A in the inclusion of the word "more" before "moderate growth in monetary aggregates."

It is proposed for possible use if the Committee decides to

pursue the more restrictive course contemplated by the specifications given earlier for pattern II. "To implement this policy, while taking account of [DEL: possible] and developments international

THE FORTHCOMING

Treasury financing, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that will support MORE moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead."

-11APPENDIX BACKGROUND TO TECHNICAL CORRECTION OF RPD PATH The correction affects the measured distribution of reserves held The

behind private nonbank demand deposits (RPD) and net interbank deposits.

target after correction represents what the staff would have presented at the time of the March 21 FOMC meeting as consistant with pattern II aggregates if the timing and extent to which foreign banking institutions were moving onto

PEPS had been known.

The change in effect reduces the multiplier between

available reserves for private nonbank deposits and currently measured M 1 .

The correction was necessary because of the accounting effect of the recent transfer (on February 7 and March 13) to the PEPS system for clearing international transactions of several foreign banking institutions which had not yet been incorporated into our banking statistics.

The staff did not

know the magnitude and exact timing of this transfer at the time of the last FOMC meeting.

As these foreign institutions joined

PEPS, the effect

was to lower both cash items and net interbank deposits on the books of member banks.

In staff calculations of the distribution of reserves, this

would mean that reserves against net interbank deposits would decline and required reserves against private demand deposits at member banks (gross demand deposits less the now lower cash items) would rise by an equivalent amount, thereby increasing the measured reserves available series.

As noted above,

if the timing and extent of transfer had been known at the time of the last FOMC meeting, the staff would have allowed for the effect in construction of

the reserve path presented at that meeting.

-12Incorporation of these institutions into the banking statistics will, when we make our next annual revision, raise the measured level of the money supply (unless offset, of course, by other benchmark changes).

But the

data for the institutions that we have gathered indicates that there will be virtually no effect on rates of change in money supply.

In the annual

revision, a gradually decreasing level will be carried back over a number of years.

CHART 1

(FP) 4/14/72

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

13% growth for Mar - Apr

r

D 1970

M

J 1971

S

D

M 1972

J

J

F

M 1972

A

M

CHART 2

(FR) 4/14/72

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

MONETARY AGGREGATES MONEY SUPPLY M1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

- 236

14/12/72)

-230

234

-232

-230

-228 I

I

I

t

I

I

"1

BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2

(4/12/72)

/

J I 1970

1971

1972

1t

D '71

J

.1

\

\ J

F

M '72

I I

A

-460 -1 M

,

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

CHART 3

4/14/72

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

/ -3 4/12/72)

3

3 j1 I

jI

II

I

JI

I

I

RESERVES

1970

1971

1972

0 '71

J

F

M '72

A

M

CHART 4

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

1970

1971

INTEREST RATES Short-term

1972

1970

1971

INTEREST RATES Long-term

1972

1970

1971

1972

Table

1

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

April 14,

Bank Reserves

Reserves Available for Private Nonbank Deposits Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted Target and Actual Target and Actual Associated and Associated and Patterns / Proieted Patterns I/ Projected (2) (4)

Period

1972--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr .

29,509 29,611 30,009

29, 613 30,087 30,138-30, 335 2/

30,280

29,736 29,800 30,225-30,422 2/

1972

Aggregate Reserves

Total Reserves

(5)

30,487 29,737 29,719 30,376

Required Reserves Seasonally Adjusted Time U.S. Gov't. Nonborrowed Private and and Reserves Demand Nondeposits Interbank (6)

(7)

(8)

31,772 31,616 32,041 32,743

31,678 31,580 31,940 32,625

20,757 20,805 21,037 21,237

7.1 2.2 10.2 ( 7.0)

6.0

2.4 2.8 10.5 (8.0)

6.7 14.5 17.9 (6.5)

6.4 2.8

22.3

8,538 8,656 8,757 8,786

(9) 2,263 2,005 2,031 2,463

Annual Rates of Change Quar terly: 1971--3rd Otr. 4th Otr. 1972--lst Qtr. 2nd Otr.

3.1

5.8 11.5

(7.5)

1972--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Mar.-Apr.

19.0 6.0 10.5-14.5 2/ ...

Weekly: 1972--Feb.

2

. .•,

• •.

..

•

23 1 8 15 22 29

29,907 29,971 30,345 29,499 30,159

5 12

30,291 30,100

16

Apr.

• .. E ..

(11.0) (13.5) 29,528 29,205 29,793 29,604

9

Mar.

13.8 4.1 16.1

• .,•..•.#.,....,o,• "" "" "" ...o••.. " " "" o•• " • o•••.o •" o•....•o. " " ""..."" •.••oo ••o••• " "" o .o. . ....••••.• • ... " .,••.•oo.•.•.• " " " " " " ::::::::::::::::::::::: .,..-,..,. .,.•... ,o..,, ....... ,,........,..••. •" ,•.,.,.....,•..., " " " " " " •... .,,.•.,,,..,..•.. • "" ,•.,.,•.,..,.. "" ::: "" ::::::: "" "" :::::: "" "" ::::::: • .•. " " ... " •,.•.....o•• " ' " "~ •' ......•. ",.o.....•..,.. "" "" ....... " " " •" ... "" ,.....,•..•. ".. • • "... "" ,......,, """" "' """" ..... • ., ".... ,.,. o,.... .H..,,,,.... • •,...o........•• " " " "" "" • "" .. "" .• " " o,."o.• " ' "" .. •,.•,•,.... .,. • .. "" •,....,....•... "" "" ........... "" "" "" "" • • .. ••....,,.•o.... • "" .. " o• "" ......... """ " ' "" "" . •,. ...•o•....... • ... " ."""".,. ...••,...•... " ,..,o.....•. " " " " o• ... ,• ..... "... ,,..,o••...,. " "••. """ .."" ,•... " "" • .. " • " •........ " " " .,. " " ..""•.,. "

~~

.•,.,,• .o..,o• Hoo"o...• ",,... ... o '.. ;;;::;;;;; ...• ,,..,. .,..•, .,,, .,.•,., ...... , •,..,.. :::111::1: .. o.,,o.. ,,.o ,•.•,.. ,...... ,.. ,.o. .,,. .,,.,,,.,, .. .,..,.. ... ,.•,• ,,..• .. .,,..,. .. •..,• ...,.,.. """. .,....• .•• ..... ..... ,. ,....,, ,...,,,

20.2 -5.9 16.1 (26.0)

(6.5)

(21.5)

23.1 -3.7 13.7 (25.5) (20.0)

30,335 29,679 29,924 29,591

31,797 31,473 31,695 31,519

29,514 29,376 29,926 29,412 30,077

31,744 31,709 32,164 31,650

30,127 29,927

•.......... •••..... .••....•• .••....••••••,•.•.o•.•••o,.,,. .....•••o••°•.•••• ....••°,... •••• • •••o•• o• °•...•oo• • ......•°•.°•••••o.°••••oo,..° .,..o. ...°•.°.°o°. .••oo oo ...••°••.°o°••°•.•°o.•...o,••° ...................... ,.....• .•,•.•.••,•°..°•••o,•,.••°•..• °••••°..•,•°•.,•o•° .... •.°.• •°,••°°.•,•°o....•°• .......•o .•o•,....,•.••,.,•.•°.• 6.°.•o. : ::: : :: :: ::::: : : :: °,°•• ....••°••.o°•°•....•,.•.. ••...•°.•°•o.••°•.°o•••.o.•°.• ••,,....o.••••..••°•,...o,•.•° o°••••,•°•• ......••°••..• • •••.°•.o••°• .... °• .... •o••• • ,•••°•...•• ••.o°.°, ... °•.••• •:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::! .••°•••••.••,• ... •.°.•••

oo...••............._ •°°••°••.•. .... •...... o. ...... •••°••••••..°••• ...... °•°•.•••••,o••••••oo•••o•.•,., .••••°•....................... •••••o°••...••••••°.••••.•••., ....ei.....H...••i....o°..•.• o••..o••••••.•.•••.oo...••••o

6.9 11.1

13.4

15.5

(12.5)

14.0 (4.0) ( 9.0)

31,778 31,427 31,678 31,505

20,667 20,532 20,898 20,851

8,593 8,607 8,644 8,676

21,004 21,005

32,500

31,666 31,598 32,151 31,538 32,339

20,875 21,087

8,723 8,734 8,774 8,757 8,772

2,269 2,268 1,902 1,915 1,837 1,738 1,818 2,151 2,340

32,687 32,578

32,551 32,565

21,166 21,076

8,742 8,768

2,396 2,470

(11.5)

21,154

.••••••.............

. I'

NOTE: Data shown in parentheses are current projections. Annual rates of change other than those for the past are rounded to the nearest half percent. 1/ The target has been adjusted to reflect corrections in the distribution of reserves between private and interbank deposits necessitated by the introduction of the new PEPS system for clearing international transfers. These corrections, worked out in conjunction with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, are purely technical. The adjusted target represents what the staff would have presented at the time of the March 21 FOMC meeting as consistent with Pattern II aggregates and money market conditions if the timing and extent to which foreign banking institutions were moving onto PEPS had been known. The amount of correction is plus 1-1/2 percentage points at an annual rate for the March-April period. Thus, the adjusted target indicates a 12-1/2 percent annual rate (mid-point of the range) for the two-month period, as compared with 11 percent in the original target. 2/ The range is centered on the adjusted 12.5 percent annual rate of growth in these reserves from February to April thought to be consistent with the growth in monetary aggregates shown in Pattern II in the March 17, 1972 Bluebook.

Annual Growth Rates in Pattern II 1/ Mar. Apr. QII 11.0 6.5 7.5 M1 10.5 8.0 8.0 M2 C

redit Proxy 15.0 (Adj.)

6.0

7.0

Adjusted Credit Proxy

Broad Money Supply (M2)

Narrow Money Supply (M1 )

Period

Annual Percentage Rates of Change--Qualrterly and Monthly II I II 7.6 4.4 3.7

1971--3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr.

1.1

241.2 244.3 246.5 (248.1)

14.8

17.1

(8.0)

1972--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.

3.2 12.6 12.5 (8.0)

13.4 14. 3 11.6

9.9 5.9 18.0

(8.0)

(8.5)

(8)

33.2 33.8 33.4 (33.8)

4.0 3.6 3.7 (3.6)

5.3 14.7

20.0 16.2 (7.8 ( 9.0)

24.4 15.4

10.8 ( 8.5)

229.8 230.3 231.2 232.2

472.2 473.3 475.6 477.2

365.1 365.7 366.9 367.2

4.8 5.1 3.8 3.0

275.8 276.5 278.2 279.3

242.4 243.0 244.4 245.0

33.4 33.5 33.8 34.3

3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6

1 8 15 22 29

231. 4 232.5 233. 9

477.3 478.1

233,8

480.1 479.9

368.3 369.9 372. 5 372.7 373.4

3.2 5.2 6.2 6.7 6.9

279.7 279.4 279.8 279.5 280.2

245.9 245.7 246.8 246.4 246.5

33.8 33.7 33.0 33. 1 33.7

3.6 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8

5 12

234.9 234.8

375.8 375.8

7.8 8.1

281.1

247.7 247.8

33.4 34.3

3.5 3.7

2

1972--Feb.

9 16 23

480.7

233.4

482,6 482.6

t

_

_

_

_

_1

__

_

282.1

_

Data shown in parentheses are current projections. Annual rates of change other than those for the past are rounded to the nearest half per cent.

ts shown

Nondeposit Sources of Funds

)ollars

Weekly Pattern in Billions

1/

274.4 278.1 279.9 (282.0)

Negotiable CD's (7)

(8.5)

11.4 ( 5.5)

NOTES:

(6)

8.2 15.9

13.3 ( 8.0)

rrnm nr~ .

(5)

Time deposits other than CD's

9.7

9,5 (7.5)

Apr.

Total Time and Savings

8.0

1972--1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr.

Mar.

6.3 3.7 6.1 (6.4)

364.9 366.7 372.2 (374.9)

469.9 475.5 480,1 (483,4)

228.8 231.2 233.6 (235.2)

U.S. Govt. Deposits (4)

(3) (2) (1) Monthly Pattern in Billions of Dollars 1972--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) April 14, 1972

Table 2 Monetary Aggregates (Actuals and current projections, seasonally adjusted)

in

the March

17.

1972 Bluebook.

p<---P:irti~illy

stimit d

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) April 14,1972

Appendix Table I RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES

Reserves

Period

Total

Nonborrowed

Money Stock Measures

Bank Credit Measures

M

Adjusted Credit Proxy

(3)

Annually

1

M

M3

(4)

(5)

Total Loans and Investments

(6)

_Other

Total Time

(7)

Time Other than CD's

Thrift lInstitution Deposits

(9)

CD's

(13) (11) (12) (Dollar Change in Billions)

(10)

(Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth)

1968 1969 1970 1971

+ + + +

7.8 3.2 5.4 6.2

+ 9,3 + 2.3 + 8.1 + 11.1

+ 8.3 + 2.7 + 7.8 + 13.3

+ + + +

+ 5.0 + 10.3

+ 4.8 + 11.4

+

5.2

+

10.8

+ 17.0 + 8.8

+ +

4

11.5

+

9.3

9.7 0.3 8.3 9.5

+ 11.0 + 3.9

+ 11.3

4

+ 17.9 + 17.9

+ 1.4 + 11.0 + 16.2

+ 8.4 + 26.3

+ 6.0 + 15.6

+ 4.7 + 10.6

+ 22.3 + 12.2

+ 21.2 + 10.1

+ 20.1 + 13.5

8.1

+ 10.7

-

4.9

+ 11.1

U.S. Gov't. Demand

Nondeposit Funds

+ 6.4 + 3.4 S+ 7.7 + 17.5

4 2.8 - 12.6

+ 2.6 + 13.0

- 14.5 + 7.9

-

8.4 7.6

-

0.1

+ +

0.3 1.1

-

0.3

Semi-Annually: 1st Half 1970 2nd Half 1970

+ 0.4 - 11.6

+

5.6

+

5.2

1st Half 1971 2nd Half 1971

+ +

+ 10.0

9.6 4.7

+

2.4

9.7 8.8

QuartPrlJ. 1st Qtr. 1971 2nd Qtr. 1971 3rd Qtr. 1971 4th Qtr. 1971

1st Qtr. 1972

1971:

Jan. Feb.

NOTE:

+ 12.3

+ 16.2

+ + + + +

+ 10.3 4 9.7 + 8.7

+ + + + +

28.8 14.7 8.2 15.9 14.8

21.9 17.3 13.7 12.8 20.4

+ 10.6 + 8.6 + 7.3

+ 2.8 + 13.4 + 11.0

+ 15.5 + 20.9 + 19,3

+ 10.2 + 11.9 + 10.3

+ 12.8 + 14.6 + 9.1

+ 28.8 + 29.7 + 26.0

+ 26.0 + 28.3 + 26.5

+ 23.9

Apr. May June

+

+

+ 15.5 + 15.2 + 12.0

+ + +

8.5 8.8 7.7

+ +

+ 13.2 + 15.5 + 14.8

+ 16.0 + 13.6 + 11.8

+ 22.5 + 12.9 + 15.8

+ 10.5 + 6.6 + 6.2

+ 10.7 + 4.1 + 7.9

+

+ 9.4 + 4.2 + 10,7

+ + +

4.8 3.2 7.9

+ 16.7 + 10.3 + 13.8

+ 4.8 + 11.2 + 13.1

+ 10.1 + 11.2

+ 17.1 + 9.1 + 20,8

+ 13.7 + 13.0 + 17.0

+ 13.0 + 11.4 + 13.7

9.9

+ 17.5 + 12.4 + 18.1

+ 20.0 + 16.2 + 7.8

+ 24.4

+ 23.9 + 17.4 + 18.8

Mar.

1972:

+ 10.9 8.4 + 7.6 + 9.7 + 11.4

8.5

8.2

+ 13.4

+ 14.1

+

7.9

+

9.1

July Aug. Sept.

+ 4.4 + 4.1 + 12.9

+

10.1

+

3.2

-

2.1

Oct. Nov.

+

7.4 3.4

+

0.5

Dec.

+ +

9.1 8.7

+ 10.7

+

2.6

+

11.0

Jan. Feb. Mar .p

+ 20.2

+ 3.2 4 12.6 + 12.5

*

5.9

+ 16.1

+ 15.4 + 16.7

+ +

+ 14.0

+ 18.0

5.9

7.4 9.7

+ 13.6 6.2

+ 11.9

+ 10.9 +

4.5

+ 18.5

+ 22.1

+ 15.4

+ 10.8

J

__

_

_

_

J___

_

_

1-

Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970.

p - Preliminary,

1

-

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

Appendix Table II

April 16,1972

RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES (Seasonally adjusted, Billions of dollars) Money Stock Measures

Reserves

Total

Period

(1)

Annu ally Dec. 1968 Dec. 1969

NonborrTotal otal (2) (3)

M

Other

Bank Credit Measures_

M

M3

Prv't Dep. (4)

(5)

(6)

Adjusted Credit Proxy (7)

Total Loans and Investments (8)

Total Time (9)

Other than CD's (10)

Time

Thrift Institution Deposits

CD's

(11)

(12) 23.6 11.0

27,249 27,977

26,471 26,829

197.4 203.7

154.0 157.7

378.0 368.8

572.6 588.3

304.6 305.4

390.6 406.0

204.2 194.1

180.6 183.2

194.6 201.5

NonDeposit Funds

U.S. Gov't. Demand

Monthly: 28,037

27,227

209.4

161.7

398.1

603.0

312.8

416.5

202.3

188.7

204.9

July Aug. Sept.

28,315 28,695 29,059

27,060 27,907 28,438

210.3 211.6 212.8

162.4 163.5 164.5

401.7

318.2 322.5 324.3

422.5 427.5 429.5

208.4 213.2 217.7

191.4 193.9 196.4

206.6 208.4

409.2

608.4 613.9 619.1

Oct. Nov. Dec.

28,700 28,704 29,132

28,190 28,239 28,764

213.1 213.6 214.8

164.8 164.9 165.8

412.1 414.3 418.2

623.9 627.9 634.0

324.8 326.5 330.6

430.6 433.1 438.9

221.5 224.2 228.9

198.9 200.6 203.4

211.8 213.6 215.8

1971--Jan. Feb. Mar.

29,390 29,600 29,779

28,958 29,240 29,445

215.3 217.7 219.7

166.0 168.0 169.7

423.1 430.4 437.1

642.2 653.4 663.9

333.4 336.7 339.6

443.6 449.0 452.4

234.4 240.2 245.4

207.8 212.7 217.4

219.2 223.0 226.8

Apr. May June

29,991 30,327 30,527

29,859 30,106 30,106

221.2 223.8 225.5

170.7 173.0 174.5

441.5 446.6 450.6

672.5 681.0 687.8

342.0 344.5 346.7

455.2 458.9 464.1

248.1 251.3 254.4

220.3 222.8 225.0

231.0 234.4 237.2

July Aug. Sept.

30,639 30,743 31,073

29,915 29,985 30,556

227.4 228.0 227.6

175.8 176.3 175.5

453.4 454.5 455.6

693.8 697.6 701.2

349.8 351.0 353.3

466.5 471.1 475.4

256.4 257.3 259.6

225.9 226.5 228.0

240.4 243.1 245.6

Oct. Nov. Dec.

30,882 30,970 31,246

30,485 30,535 31,079

227.7 227.7 228.2

175.5 175.5 175.7

458.3 460.8 464.7

706.5 711.6 718.1

354.7 358.0 361.9

479.4 481.2 485.7

263.3 265.3 269.9

230.6 233.1 236.4

248.3 250.8 253.4

31,772 31,616 32,041

31,678 31,580 31,940

228.8 231.2 233.6

176.0 178.0 179.9

469.9 475.5 480.1

727.3 737.4 746.0

364.9 366.7 372.2

492.8 497.9 505.4

274.4 278.1 279.9

241.2 244.3 246.5

257.4 261.9 265.9

5 12 19 26

31,770 31,652 32,051 31,596

31,709 31,883 31,489

228.2 228.5 229.0 229.2

175.6 175.8 176.1 176.5

468.2 469.2 469.8 470.-6

363.8 364.5 365.7 366.1

273.2 274.0 274.1 274.6

240.0 240.7 240.9 241.4

2 9 16 23

31,797 31,473 31,695 31,519

31,778 31,427 31,678 31,505

229.8 230.3 231.2 232.2

176.9 177.2 178.0 178.8

472.2 473.3 475.6 477.2

365.1 365.7 366.9 367.2

275.8 276.5 278.2 279.3

242.4 243.0 244.4 245.0

1 8 15 22 291' 5p

31,744 31,709 32,164 31,650 32,500 32,687

31,666 31,598 32,151

231.4 232.5 233.9 233.8 233.4 234.9

178.2 179.0 180.2 180.1 179.5 180.9

477.3 478.1 480.7 480.1 479.9 482.6

279. 7 279.4 279.8 279.5 280.2

245.9 245.7 246.8 246.4 246.5

281.1

247.7

1970--June

1972--Jan. Feb. Mar. p

405.6

209.9

Weekly: 1972--Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

31,569

31,538

32,339 32,551

I......

.............:

368.3 369.9 t itiiiii 372.5 372.7 373.4

........... i 375.8

... .. .. ... ..

..................

NOTES:

p -

Reserve requirements on Euro-dollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, bankincluded beginning October 1, 1970. related commercial paper, and Euro-dollar borrowings of U. S. banks. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks. Monthly data are daily averages except for nonbank commercial paper figures which are for last day of month. Weekly data are not available for M3 , total loans and investments and thrift institution deposits.

Preliminary.