Bluebook
Prefatory Note
The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.
1
In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing).
2
A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.
Content last modified 6/05/2009.
(CONFIDENTIAL
FR)
April 13, 1973
MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee
By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
April 13,
1973
MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1)
Both RPD and M 1 appear to be growing at annual rates below
the low ends of the Committee's March-April ranges of tolerance, as shown in the table.
Expansion in M2 also seems to be on the slow side, at the
low end of the range specified four weeks ago.
Growth in the bank credit
proxy--at a 17 per cent annual rate for the March-April period--appears to be somewhat faster than expected at the time of the last Committee meeting. Growth of Monetary Aggregates and RPD in March - April period (SAAR in Per Cent)
Ranges of Tolerance RPD
12--16
9-1/2
M1
4--7
2-1/2
M2
5--8
5
MEMO: Federal funds rate
*
Current Estimates
6-3/4--7-1/2
Weeks Ending 7.18 4/4 4/11 6.84
Raised to 7 per cent on April 11.
(2)
The shortfalls in RPD and the money supply aggregates relative
to earlier expectations are attributable almost entirely to slower than anticipated growth in private demand deposits.
The reasons for this are
-2obscure as usual, but one factor may be that processing of Treasury refund checks has been slower than we had anticipated, thus keeping Treasury tax and loan balances higher and private demand balances lower than projected. Also, the steepness of the rise in short-term interest rates since late last year may be producing a dampening effect on money demands with a somewhat shorter time lag than usual.
In addition, the dramatic first
quarter upsurge in consumer spending and the accompanying sharp advances in retail prices might have caused households to draw down money balances below normal levels. (3)
Early in the inter-meeting period, RPD and the money
supply aggregates all appeared to be growing at rates within the Committee's March-April ranges of tolerance.
While the Desk in this period continued
to follow a reserve strategy expected to produce a Federal funds rate averaging around 7 per cent, unexpected shortfalls in reserve availability from other reserve factors produced an average funds rate closer to 7-1/8 per cent.
When it became clear, in late March, that RPD and M1 were
running below their desired growth ranges and that M2 was at the bottom of its range, the Desk adopted a reserve strategy expected to be consistent with a Federal funds rate averaging around 7 per cent, but with doubts resolved on the side of less tautness.
By the statement week of April 11,
the average Federal funds rate had dropped to 6.84 per cent.
Late on
Wednesday, April 11, a majority of Committee members concurred in the Chairman's recommendation that the low end of the range of tolerance for the funds rate be raised from 6-3/4 to 7 per cent for the remaining part of the intermeeting period, and the Desk has since sought to keep reserve availability correspondingly firm.
-3(4)
Other short-term interest rates continued under general
upward pressure during the early weeks of the intermeeting period, but after early April this trend was reversed, as the market came to expect an early announcement of a stronger controls program and the view developed that no further near-term tightening (and possibly some easing) of monetary policy was likely. term rates showed mixed changes.
Over the full intermeeting period, shortYields on both Treasury bills and
Federal agency issues with 6-month to 1-year maturities are down significantly on balance. around 6.20
The 3-month Treasury bill--presently at
per cent--has shown little net change since the last meeting,
although it did at one point reach an intermeeting high of around 6-1/2 per cent. by 25 --
Rates on large CD's and commercial paper increased on balance 35 basis points, reflecting the pressure of continued rapid net
issuance of CD's by large banks. (5)
Yields on longer-term securities showed little
response
to the further rise of short-term rates early in the intermeeting period and have generally experienced net declines over the period as a whole. This relative strength was attributable partly to the rather moderate volume of new longer-term debt offerings.
In addition, following the
early April shift in market expectations, professionals moved to reduce their short positions. hand,
Rates in secondary mortgage markets, on the other
continued to edge higher over the period,
and there were field reports
of some upward pressure on new mortgage commitment rates as well. (6)
The table on the following page shows (in percentage
annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various time periods.
-4Past 3 Calendar Yearr
Dec.
'72
over Dec.
Past 12 Months
Mar. '73
Past 6
Past
Months Mar. '73
3 Months Mar. '73
Past Month Mar. '73
Sept '72
Dec.
Feb.
over
'69
Mar..'72
'72
'73
Total reserves
8.4
9.9
11.2
8.8
Nonborrowed reserves
8.8
2.6
-0.9
-7.2
Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits
9.0
9.5
10.2
10.4
13.0
7.5
6.4
5.4
2.0
0.5
11.3
9.0
8.1
5.9
5.4
12.8
11.2
10.1
8.5
6.6
Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.)
10.7
12.7
13.8
15.2
20.3
Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/
12.4
15.2
17.7
20.3
19.4
.9
1.8
2.5
3.9
6.1
13.1 -10.7
Concepts of Money M 1 (currency plus demand deposits)1/ M 2 (MI plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large
CD's) M 3 (M2 plus deposits
at thrift institu-
tions) Bank Credit
Short-term market paper
(Monthly ave, change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper
--
1/
Other than interbank and U.S.
7/
Based on month-end figures.
--
.1
-
9
-1.3
-Government.
Includes loans ~old to affiliates and branches.
NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total instituloans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift tions--which are either end-of-month or last-Wednesday-of-month figures.
Prospective developments (7)
Longer-run targets and associated April-May ranges for
key variables are shown below in summary form for Committee consideration (with figures for aggregates representing seasonally adjusted annual rates of change).
Of the alternatives shown, alternative B--which is
indexed by a long-run growth rate of 5-1/4 per cent for M --represents 1 essentially a continuation of longer-run monetary targets adopted by the Committee at its last meeting (stipulated at the time as 5--5-1/2 per cent for M1).
Alternative A represents an easing of policy, and
alternative C a tightening.
Alt. A
Alt.
B
Alt. C
Longer-run targets (represented by growth rates for 2nd and 3rd quarters of 1973) M1
6-1/2
5-1/4
4
M2
6-1/2
5-1/4
4
11
10
9
10-1/2
8-3/4
7
21--23
13--15
RPD
11--13
10--12
M
4-1/2--6-1/2
4--6
3-1/2--5-1/2
5--7
4-1/2--6-1/2
3-1/2--5-1/2
5-3/4--7
6-1/2--7-1/2
6-3/4--8
Credit Proxy RPD Associated ranges for April-May Nonborrowed RPD
7-1/2--9-1/2 9--11
1
M2 Federal funds rate
-5aAlternative Longer-Run Targets for Key Monetary Aggregates M1
Alt. C
Alt. A
Alt. B
Mar. Apr. May June
Alt. B 256.8 257.7 259.0 260.2
256.8 257.7 258.8 259.6
532.9 534.9 538.3 541.7
Sept.
265.3
263.6
261.9
550.5
1973
Alt. A 256.8 257.7 259.2 260.8
Quarters:
1973 2nd. 3rd.
Q. Q.
6.0 7.0
5.3 5.2
4.0 7.0
4.0 6.0
6.5 6.5
-Adjusted Credit Proxy
532.9 534.9 537.7 540.3
Alt. C 532.9 534.8 537.0 538.7
Alt. A 421.8
Alt. B 421.8
Alt. C 421.8
426.6 429.7 434.5
426.6 429.3 433.4
426.5 428.8 432.3
547.2
543.1
445.4
443.2
440.7
Rates of Growth 4.5 5.5 3.5 5.0
12.0 10.0
11.0 9.0
10.0 8.0
4.5 5.0
13.5 8.5
13.5 7.5
13.5
Months: Apr. May
4.0 5.0
4.5 7.5
4.5 6.5
Ttal Reserves
Alt. B
Alt. C
Alt. A
Mar. Apr. May June
31,995 32,254 32,683 32,385
31,995 32,238 32,642 32,291
31,995 32,221 32,594 32,189
29,614 29,788 30,208 30,374
Sept.
32,952
32,695
32,427
5.0 7.0
3.5 5.0
2.5 3.0
31,162 Rates of Growth 10.5 10.5
9.5 16.0
9.0 15.0
8.5 14.6
1973
Alt. A
Quarters:
1973 2nd. Q. 3rd. Q.
Months: Apr. May
7.0 17.0
RPD Alt. B 29,614 29,772 30,167 30,281
Alt. C 29,614 29,756 30,118 30,182
30,907
30,638
8.5
7.5 6.0
6.5 16.6
6.0 14.5
9.0
6.5
(8)
The staff expects that the alternative B path for the
aggregates would be achieved with little change from recently prevailing money market conditions.
Given such conditions--centering on a Federal
funds rate of 7 per cent--growth in
M1 is
expected to be somewhat
greater than it has been on balance over the first three months of the year.
In April-May, a growth rate of 4--6 per cent for M1 is indicated.
During that period, income tax refunds are likely to add somewhat to private demand balances.
In addition, continued strong expansion in
economic activity will likely lead to a reassertion of the underlying growth trend in transactions demands for cash. experience,
the sharp drop in
that developed in (9)
the first
On the basis of historical
demand for money relative to GNP growth
quarter seems very unlikely to persist.
With a Federal funds rate around 7 per cent,
interest
rates generally are expected to show only minor changes on balance over the next month.
However, the recent stability in rates has been based
in part on expectations that a stiffer controls program is in the offing. If this comes to seem less likely, upward rate adjustments might well take place.
Apart from attitudinal shifts, however,
basic supply-demand
conditions do not suggest significant further upward pressure on rates in the near-term.
The Treasury will be announcing a refunding of $4.3 billion
of publicly-held issues on Wednesday, April 25.
But this refunding will be
in a quarter when the Treasury will be repaying about $5 billion of debt on balance.
Some attrition in this refunding and the maturity of $2 billion
of mid-April tax bills could keep Treasury bill cantly from current levels.
rates from rising signifi-
-7(10)
It is not clear, though, that long-term interest rates
have yet fully adjusted to earlier advances in short-term rates. Mortgage interest rates seem likely to rise further in view of our projection that savings inflows will continue to moderate,
given the
current level of short-term market rates and assuming no rise in Q ceilings.
The development of a dual prime loan rate is
likely over time
to push some bank borrowers back into the open market, with consequent upward pressure on the commercial paper market and, on corporate bond rates.
Upward yield pressures in
to a lesser extent, bond markets are
likely to be limited by the basically light calendar of corporate bond offerings scheduled thus far, although increased Federal agency issues and possible debt lengthening by the Treasury could be adding to the supply of longer-maturity debt. (11)
The sensitivity of the current market is such that a
drop in the funds rate to the 6-1/2 per cent lower end of the alternative B range is
likely to be accompanied by a drop in the 3-month Treasury
bill rate to under 6 per cent and an accompanying decline in long-term rates.
On the other hand, a rise in the funds rate to the 7-1/2 per
cent top of the range would exert upward pressure on the whole interest rate structure, including the discount rate. (12)
Bank credit growth in April-May,
though expected to slow
from the exceptional pace of recent months, still is likely to be fairly substantial by historical standards, reflecting continued strength in business and consumer demands for bank credit.
Given roughly the pre-
vailing structure of short-term market rates, growth in time deposits
-8other than large CD's probably will be quite moderate--at around a 6 per cent annual rate in April-May.
Banks are expected to con-
tinue adding substantially to CD's outstanding, although the rate of growth should decrease somewhat as businesses shift more of their borrowing to the open narket. (13) in
Under alternative A, the staff would expect a decline
the Federal funds rate to accompany an effort to encourage more rapid
growth in the aggregates, and vice-versa for alternative C.
However,
even-keel may constrain the Committee's willingness to adopt reserve objectives that lead to changes in money narket conditions of the dimensions of alternatives A and C.
If the Committee were to choose
alternative A or C, but limit the downward or upward movement of the funds rate to smaller dimensions than indicated, it would, of course, extend the period needed to achieve the aggregate objectives of either alternative.
Proposed directive (14)
Presented below are three alternative formulations
for the operational paragraph of the directive, which might be taken to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section.
For all three alternatives it is proposed
to add a reference to Treasury financing because of the regular May refinancing to be announced late this month, and to delete the reference to international developments because only a moderate reflow into dollars has developed in recent weeks and exchange markets have been relatively quiet.
Also, for the sake of clarity, it is proposed to describe the
conditions sought as those "consistent with" rather than those "that will support" the aggregate objectives described.
Retention of the
reference to credit market developments is proposed only for alternative C, the one alternative that contemplates a significant tightening of the money market. Alternative A possible To implement this policy, while taking account of [DEL: domestic developments] international and market credit
FORTHCOMING
TREASURY FINANCING, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve slower] somewhat] FASTER[DEL: and money market conditions CONSISTANT WITH[DEL: occurred than growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead [DEL: months. 6 past the in growth on
-10-
Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developinternational and market credit domestic possible [DEL: ments] FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions CONSISTENT WITH [DEL: slower] somewhat support will that
MODERATE
growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead [DEL: than months]. 6 past the in average on occurred
Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of domestic] credit FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND possible [DEL: market [DEL: international] and
developments, the Committee seeks to
achieve bank reserve and money market conditions CONSISTENT
slower] somewhat support will that WITH MODEST [DEL:
growth in
on occurred than monetary aggregates over the months ahead [DEL: months]. 6 past the in average
CHART 1
(FR) STRICTLY CONFIDENTIA
4/13/73
RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
I-r J
F
M 1973
M
1971
J
1972
S
D
M
J
1973
*Break in Series, Actual Level of RPD After Reduction in Reserve Requirements Effective November 9
1972
A
M
(FR) CONFIDENTIAL STRICTLY
CHART 2
4/13/73
MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 7% growth for Mar -Apr
i0
4% growth
14/11/73)
-250
BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2
-5:
- 480
-1460
1971
1972
1973
I
I
I
N D 1972
J,
F
1
M A 1973
-5
I
M
b"
CHART 3
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
4/13/73
MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
/
420
-1400
I
1
*rBak
I !I 1971
iI i
I
i I i 1972
i I I 1973
l
I I N D J 1972
1
J
I
I I F M A 1973
in serses Actual Levei ol Totai Reserves After Reduction in Reserve Re~uirements Effective November 9, 1972
CHART 4
MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES
wF~I(
y AVI
PFR CENT
r
INTEREST RATES Long-term
INTEREST RATES Short-term
MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS
wi
-7
- 9
1
PER CENT
wrf KLY
PFR CENT
KY tl Avi RAFs
-
9
MORTGAGES
VFHA
FNMA MONDAY AUCTION
J~
FEDERAL FUNDS
R A TE
R A TE-1
5
7
Aaa UT ILITY
7 \NEW
ISSUF
EURO DOLLARS 3 MONTH FR DISCOUNT RATE
--35 3
GOVERNMENT BONDS
BILIONS OF DOLLARS I
WFDNESPAY
/
f /_j
RESERVES
5
MUNICIPAL Aaa
10 YEAR AVERAGES
2
TREASURY BILLS 3 MONTH
+
0-31 SI
I I I I
1972
PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 46 MON1H
NET BORROWFD
1971
3
I
I
I
1973
1971
1972
I I I
1973
II I
1971
I
II I
II
I 1972
II I I
l
.. lI l . 1973
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
TABLE 1
APRIL 13,
1973
BANK RESERVES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) ------ --------------------
I I I
---------------- ---- ft-- ------------------------- -------------------------- ------------------------REQUIRED RESERVES I AGGREGATE RESERVES II -----------.-.--------I ---------------------RESERVES AVAILABLE FOR II SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS
------------------
II------------------------------------------I------ .---... -----------....II I SEAS ADJ I NON SEAS ADJ II
PERIOD
TOTAL RESERVES
NONBORROWED RESERVES
----,------------------------- ft ---------------------(1)
I
(2)
S
29,211
I 29,411 29,296 29,614 (299772)
30,384 29,369 299351 S (29.805)
ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE QUARTERLY
I
1973-IST OTR. 2ND QTR
I I
MONTHLY
I
II
(3)
(4)
1
II II II II II II SII II II
31.309
30.063
1I
329242 31.649 319995 (32,238)
1
10.4 9.0)
I
II II
fI
II II II II II II II
7.7 I
1973--JAN. FEB. MAR.
22.8 -4.7
I I
13.0 6.5)
APR.
(
8.8 3.5)
(
I
9.5)
I
18,883 19.248 19.031 199020 (18.852)
-7,2 16,5)
-----------OOV#T AND INTERBANK
(6)
(7)
(8)
79561
2,178
2,47
7,646 79674 7,707 (7,760)
2,253 2,384 2,669 (2,965)
2,832 2,353 2,381 ( 2466)
13.1 11.4
27.4 23.1
(
7.7 4.0)
90.2 ( 90.0)
7.8
51.7
I I -10.9
12.5 35.8 -22.1 13.1 I 9.0)
9.2 23.2 -13.5 -0.7 ( *10.5)
31,3 .41.3 .10.7 ( 23.5)
(
11.0)
(133.0)
6.5)
(146.0)
19,230 199293 199482 199084 19(139
79592 7.628 79672 7,634 7*674
2,234 2.2b6 2,240 2,267 2,259
20592 2,6b7 3.330 2.833 2,610
199046 186957 199143 18979
7,670 79688 7,646 79692
2,288 2,338
2,442 29457 2,274 2.241
19243 18,953 199033 189857
7,686 7,693 7,722 7,713
2,524 2,603 2,671 2,799
2,455 20422 2.331
199008 18,790
7,741 7,771
2,859 2,910
2.518
(
( 6.5)
41.3 60.8
13.5 4.4 5.2 8.5)
I
II MAR.-APR
(5)
-0.8 4.8
3.6 14.2
3II
I 29591
I
309848 299787 299522 (30,104)
II 1972--DEC.
CODS AND NON DEP
t-----------------------------
II
9.9 10.6
1972--3RD OTR. 4TH QTR.
OTHER TIME OEP
I
28,862 I I
PRIVATE DEMAND
II II
MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONSI
1972--DEC. 1973--JAN. FEB MAR APR.
I I
-5.5)
14'3.5
WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS ---------------------
1973--JAN.
FEB.
It
3 10 17 24 31
I
7 14 21 28
29,367 299241 29,915 28*958 29,548
I I
I
30292 30,034 31,044 30,105 30*394
I 299167 29*111
S S
29,671 299235
29,591 29,314 29965 28917
I MAR.
APR.
7 14 21 28
I f
1
29,850 2996 299676 29,428 309093 299400
4 11 I
----------------------------
I
I f I I
I
9.407 8699 29503 29,293 29,937 29.170
319959 319898 12965 II 339245 II II 319791 II II II 32*158 I! 319608 II 319560 I 319945 I 31.476 II II II 32*305 II 317118 II 32.006 II 319687 II II 32.610 II 319864
I II ----------------- 6-----
~r-----
298e86 31.007 31.720 30537 30.576
I I
309284 299511 299767 299530 309238 290148 28E679 299338 309560 299350
1 I I
I I I
2.259 2.464
I ---------------------------
NOTEs DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. 1/ AT THE FOMC MEETING MARCH 209 1973 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPO RANGE OF
------------------------------------
2.478
12 TO 16 PER CENT.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
TABLE 2
APRIL 13, MONETARY AGGREGATES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY
I I I
PERIOD
MONEY SUPPLY NARROW I BROAD (MI) I (M2) (1)
I MONTHLY LEVELS-SRILLIONS --------------------I 1972--DEC. 1973--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR.
I I
PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH --------------------QUARTERLY 1972--3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.
(2)1
MONTHLY
I 255.5 255.4 256.7 256.8 (257.7)
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
2.0 ( 5. )
FEB.
MAR.
APR.
7 14 21 28 7 14 21 28 P
1
I 1
4 P 11 PEI I
(5)
I
(6)
527.9 530.5 532.9 (534.9)
409.2 414.8 421.8 (426.6)
II S II II I
I
II
I I
I I I
I
9.8 12.1
I 5.9 ( 5.5)
( ) (I
(7)
I
I
I
I I
4 06.4
103 10.2
I 13.3
15.2 (11.0)
I 12.2
I -05 6.1 0.5 ( 4.0)
I WEEKLY LEVELS-SBILLIONS I --------------------- I I 1973--JAN. 3 10 I 17 24 31
1
(4)
I NONOEPObIT I SOURCES OF I FUNDb
6.5
I
312.8
I
269.6
I T.1 7.2 7.5 ( 5.6)
43.2
I
II
I
II II
I I
II
I I
I 1
272.5 273.8 276.0 (277.2)
I 14.0 14.4
I
23.1 (17.0)
I
1
44.4 488 54.9 (59.0)
I
I
4.4
I
I 316.9 322.6 330.9 (336.2)
I
I II
I
I 1
4.5 4.5 4.9 ( 5.0)
I
I 12.3 11.6
I
I 9.5 6.0)
I
I
II
1
MAR.-APR. I
11
TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS I I OTHER TOTAL I THAN CD S I CD S
IIt
I
I I
I I I
II
525.1
I 8.2 8.6
I
1973--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR.
(3)
II U.S. II GOVT. (f DEPOSITS
I
I 1972--EC.
ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY
1
I
I 1973--1ST OTR. 2ND OTR.
I I I
ADJUSTED)
I 6.4 5.9 5.4 ( 4.5)
258.2 254.6 255.7 255.0 254.3 256.3 256.4 258.3 255.9 I 257.6 256.1 257.5 256.1 I 257.5 255.2
I I
( 5.0)
I 1
I I I I I I 1
530.2 526.2 528.5 527.8 527.7 529.0 530.4 532.3 530.3
I
(17.0)
I 1 1 I
534.1 531.9
I
I
I tI
I I
I I
If I II I II
1 I I
II
I
II
1
II I II II
I
I 11
8.6 7.2 6.8 6.9 6.7
411.3 413.0 417.5 417.2
II II II II
5.5 6.9 8.6 7.9
418.8 419.9 4 23,2 423.6
II 11 II II
7.0 6.3 8.1 8.2
426.0 422.7
II II It
7.7 56
412.0 407.4 409.4 409.1 409.8
1 533.0 531.7 533.7 5132.9
I I
8,3 16.4 20.3 (13.5)
I
I ( 2.5)
II 13.4
I
f
I I
I I I 1 I I I I I I I
17.1 15.7 21.6 30.9 (19.0)
11.2 I I
I (25.5)
315.5 315.6 316.7 317.3 318.9 320.1 322.2 323.2 325*0 327.5 330.1 331.4 333.2 334.3 335.1
1
I
I
1 I 1 I
I I I I I 1 I
I
I
I
I
12.9 5.7 9.6 ( 5.0) ( 7.5)
272.0 271.6 272.8 272.7 273.4 272.8 274.0 274.1 274.4 275.3 275.6 27602 276.9 276.6 276,7
I
I
I I I 1 I I I I I I
43.5 44.0 43.9 44.5 45.5 47.3 48.2 49.1 50.7 52.2 54.5 55.2 56.3 57.8 58.4
I
I
I 1 1 1 1 I I
I I
4.4 4.1 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.8
P - PRELIMINARY PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE OTHER THAN THOSE FOR THE PAST ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST HALF PERCENT. NOTEO DATA SHOWN
IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.
------------------------------ r---------------------------------------.......
1973
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) APRIL
13,
1973
Table 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted)
Daily Average a Open Market Operations Bank (6)
Reserve Effect 2/ 1 Other 4/ Member Borrowing Factors (7) (8)
in reserve categories available res.5/ req. res. against U.S.G and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) (9) (10)
Target available reserves 5/ (11)
Bills & Accept. (1)
Open Market Operations 1/ RP's Agency Coupon Issues Issues Net Total (4) (5) (2) (3)
1972 -- Oct. Nov. Dec.
ll -548 450
116 -51 -135
-22 157 134
--147
205 -442 596
1,124 -226 - 25
59 32 443
-378 -1,835 -839
493 -651 - 78
312 1,378 -343
335 -1,520 -300
1973 -- Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May.
1,336 659 1,109
196 --
--18 -14
862 -193 542
2,197 644 1,636
1,116 146 1,689
117 428 266
376 -1,794 -1,718
278 -109 160
1,331 -1,111 77
995 -1,140 -40 505
-2,493
-3,055
-1,020
-77
375
81
-804
2,274 -1,034
2,270 -454
110 647
759 -319
-890 - 99
256 -114
-277 343
1,059
1,883
-62
-190
-504
-16
-740
-1,856
-2,015
781
206
-215
282
490
1,827
2,259
293
-197
-599
-48
-455
--- -1,686 2,112
-1,245 2,159
37 p 4 15 p
648 -126p
-617 -331p
--8
-1,212 -379
-769 -144
998p -572p
-258p -255p
Period
3
Monthly
Weekly 1973 -- Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
-
-
7
-561
14 21
-4 383
-196
-
28
842
--
-18
-
7
-159
14
446
--
21 28
441 47
-
4 11 18 25
443 243
--
-
-14
6
2
03p 10p
-144 - 93p 2
98p -4 9 p
551 -210p
645p -768p
1/ Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. 2/ Represents change in daily average level from preceding period. 3/ Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. 4/ Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other FR accounts. 5/ Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for March and April reflects the target adopted at the March 20, 1973 FOMC meeting. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month.
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) APRIL 13, 1973
Table 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS Millions of Dollars U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions _Dealer Bills Coupon Issues
Period
Other Security Positions Corporate Municipal Bonds Bonds
(1)
(2)
(3)
Excess Reserves
(4)
(5)
Member Bank Reserves Positions s Member Bak R Borrowings Net Free Basic Reserve Deficit Reserves 8 New York 38 Other at FRB
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
1972 --
High Low
4,291 1,916
1,585 -93
235 0
383 40
796 -133
1,223 12
380 -1,070
-5,635 -1,638
-5,270 -1,910
1973 --
High Low
3,718 1,683
1,125 -96
175 0
244 70
560 -78
2,139 688
-562 -1,943
-5,243 -3,567
-7,165 -4,839
1972 --
Mar.
3,489
604
101
185
249
99
150
-3,208
-3,522
Apr. May June
2,612 2,792 2,694
274 675 205
46 123 87
99 134 260
136 104 204
109 119 94
27 -15 110
-3,026 -2,625 -2,828
-3,299 -2,652 -2,864
July
2,262
97
142
166
147
202
-55
-2,945
-2,603
Aug.
2,643
692
114
176
255
438
-183
-3,913
-2,801
Sept.
4,099
170
53
174
162
514
-352
-3,835
-4,024
Oct. Nov.
Bec.
2,887 3,096 3,510
207 1,039 953
105 84 58
132 191 291
247 314 219
574 606 1,049
-327 -292 -830
-3,637 -4,561 -4,977
-4,044 -3,622 -4,958
Jan.
3,407
720
27
177
342
1,165
-823
-4,550
-5,469
Feb. Mar
2,132 *2,490
562 *-50
77 24
123 125
205 294p
1,593 1,859p
-1,388 -1,56 5p
-4,187 -4,273
-5,436 -5, h47
1973 --
1973 --
Feb. 7
2,293
642
1
120
147
1,232
-1,085
-3,686
-5,407
14 21
2,304 1,683
1,125 362
175 128
112 155
188 505
1,991 1,670
-1,803 -1,167
-4,906 -4,527
-5,265 -4,883
28
2,191
190
0
104
-14
1,482
-1,496
-3,628
-5,829
Mar, 7
1,976
11
27
126
341
1,688
-1,347
-3,760
-6,235
14
1,973
-73
44
142
23
1,491
-1,468
-4,883
-5,920
21 28
*2,740 +1,028
* -96 * -83
12 12
168 63
249 7 0p
2,139 2,013p
-1,890 -1,943p
-4,719 -4,062
-6,075 -5,269
*3,342
*
55
507p
],
*2,549
-1,248p
*190
-3.567p
-5,
-1,578p
-4,335p
-7,165p
Apr. 4
II 18 25 NOtes:
72
15
25p
6
0p
Government Security deaLer trading positions are on a conmitment agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer are debt issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages which are Friday figures. *STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
-7 8p
755
p
1,500 p
aslis. Trading positions, which excLude Treasury bits ilnancea holdings available for sale over the near-term. Other security The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues
83
5p
by repurcnase dealer positions Federal Reserve in syndicate
CONFIDENTIAL (FR) APRIL 13,
1973
Table 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES Per Cent
Short-term Period
Federal Funds
Treasr 90-day
~
..
(1)
(2)
~~
_
CD's l l
bi t-year
~
~
.............
90-119 day Commercial paper (4)
~
~
Prime-NYC
~60-89
day d^ a
(5)
Ass Utility New Recently Issue Offered
90-119 day (b)
Municipal Bond Buyer
(7)
(8)
(9)
Long-term FNMA Auction (10-Yr Constant Yields Maturity) __ (10)
5.38 3.18
5.13 3.03
5.50 3.75
5.38 3.13
5.50 3.50
7.60 6.99
7.46 7.12
5.54 4.96
6.58
7.18 5.61
6.44 5.15
7.13 5.63
7.13 5.38
6.75 5.50
7.52 7.29
7.60 7.26
5.35 5.00
6.76 6.42
1972 -- Mar.
3.83
3.73
4.10
3.73
3.98
7.24
7.24
5.31
6.07
Apr. May June
4.17 4.27 4.46
3.71 3.69 3.91
4.55 4.45 4.60
4.34 4.15 4.38
4.47 4.33 4.50
7.45 7.38 7.32
7.40 7.38 7.36
5.43 5.31 5.34
6.19 6.13 6.11
July Aug. Sept.
4.55 4.80 4.87
3.98 4.02 4.66
4.83 4.75 5.07
4.63 4.65 4.88
4.75 4.78 5.00
7.38 7.37 7.40
7.37 7.34 7.42
5.41 5.30 5.36
6.11 6.21 6.55
Oct.
5.04 5.06 5.33
4.74 4.78 5.07
5.21 5.18 5.40
5.00 5.00 5.19
5.19 5.13 5.38
7.38 7.09 7.15
7.38
7.18 7.18
5.19 5.02 5.05
6.48 6.28 6.36
5.94 6.58 7.09
5.41 5.60 6.09
5.76 6.17 6.76
5.63 6.16 6.78
5.75 6.28 6.75
7.38 7.40 7.49
7.35 7.41 7.51
5.05 5.13 5.29
6.46 6.64 6.71
14 21 28
6.21 6.58 6.79 6.75
5.68 5.45 5.49 5.72
6.13 6.13 6.16 6.25
6.13 6.13 6.13 6.25
6.25 6.25 6.25 6.38
7.46 7.34
7.43 7.39 7.37 7.45
5.16 5.06 5.13 5.22
6.64 6.62 6.65 6.65
7 14 21 28
7.02 7.13 6.96 7.11
5.83 6.25 6.28
6.40 6.65 6.88 7.00
6.63 6.63 6.88 7.00
6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75
7.52 7.45
7.50 7.60 7.53 7.44
5.27 5.34 5.35 5.26
6.67 6.72 6.76 6.71
4 11 18 25
7.18 6.84
6.44 6.26
7.08 7.13
7.13 7.00
6.75 6.75
7.51
7.43 40 . p
5.22 5.07
6.70 6 6. 4p
1972 -- High
Low 1973 -- High
Low
Nov.
Dec. 1973 -- Jan.
Feb. Mar. 1973 -- Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
-
Notes:
7
5.92
7
'"
5.87
-'L~--~---~-~---
Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7,8 and 10 the Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Column 9 is a one-day quote for the Thursday following the end of weekly data is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data forthe Monday preceding the end of the statement week. in the bi-weekly auction for short-term forward comtitments for Government underwritten mortgages.
The FNMA auction yield is
the yield
Appendix Table I
CONFIDENIAL (FR) RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES
April 13, 1973 Money Stock Measures
Reserves
Period
Total (1)
Nonborrowed (2)
Available to Support Pvt. Deposits (3)
I
1 (4)
M2 (5)
M3 (6)
Bank Credit easures Ad justed TotT Credit Loans and Proxy Investments (7) (8)
Total Time (9)
time Other than CD' s (10)
Other _ Thrift Institution DeDosits . CD's (11) (12)
(Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth)
(Dollar Change in Billions)
I +7.5 -1.1 +6.1 +7.2 +10.6
+5.3 -2.8 +9.6 +8.1 +7.1
1st Half 1971 2nd Half 1971
+9.7 +4.4
+9.6 +6.3
+10.7 +3.4
1st Half 1972 2nd Half 1972
+11.7 +9.0
+12.1 +2.0
+8.6
+10.4
+6.5 +2.3
+6.6 +6.0
1968 1969 1970 1971 1972
+8.1 -1.7 +8.6
+7.2 +9.7
U.S. Gov't. De a d (14)
Nondeposit Fqtids (13)
I
1
I
-0.6
+0.4 +8.2 +9.4 +11.6
+11.0 +3.9 +8.1 +11.3 +14.0
+11.5 -4.8 +17.9 +18.2 +15.5
+11.2 +1.4 +11.1 +16.7 +13.3
+6.4 +3.5 +7.7 +17.5 +16.8
+2.9 -12.4 +14.4 +7.7 +10.1
+2.6 +13.0 -8.4 -7.6 +0.4
+16.4 +9.8
+10.1 +8.4
+11.5 +10.6
+21.6 +13.4
+20.0 +12.1
+19.6 +14.0
+4.3 +3.4
-7.1 -0.4
-1.4 +1.1
+10.8 +10.3
+13.0 +12.1
+11.4 +11.1
+12.8 +14.2
+15.4 +14.5
+13.7 +12.1
+17.3 +15.0
+4.4 +5 .7
-0.3 +0.6
+0.4
+4.1 +1.9
+6.0 +8.7
+8.9
+6.7 +9.8
+9.7 +11.1
+9.8 +16.6
+8.0 +15.9
+14.2 +13.3
+1.7 +1.8
-0.4
+1.1
+10.5
+15.7 +9.5 +13.6 +14.4
+15.4 +14.8
+16.1 +10.8 +12.3 +11.6
+19.7 +14.3 +16.2 +13.2
+0.8 +3.7 +2.4 +3.3
-0.3 +0.4 +0.3
-0.4 +0.5 -1.1 +1.4
+12.5
+11.7
+0.5
+0.9
-0.1 -0.3
+0.2 -1.7 +1.1 +1.1 +0.7 -1.3 -1.0 -0.7
+7.8
+9.3
+8.3
+3.6 +6.0 +6.6 +8.3
+2.6 +8.4 +11.4 +10.8
+2.9 +8.0 +13.5 +13.0
+10.1 +3.0
+14.9 +7.4
+7.7 +8.5
+9.5
+0.5
+1.1 -0.3 +0.4
Semi-Annuall y
Quarterly3rd Qtr. 1971 4th Qtr. 1971
+3.2 +3.6
1972 1972 1972 1972
+10.4 +12.6 +3.6 +14.2
+10.7 +13.1 -0.8 +4.8
+10.4 +6.6 +9.9 +10.6
+9.2 +6.1 +8.2 +8.6
+12.7 +8.5 +10.3 +10.2
+14.9 +10.8 +12.4
+11.5
+11.0 +11.5 +9.8 +12.1
let Qtr. 1973
+8.8
-7.2
+10.4
+2.0
+5.9
4+8.5
+15.2
+20.3
+23.1
+21.8 -5.2 +14.5 +22.1 +8.8 +6.4 +5.2 +7.6 -1.9 +18.2 +11.4 +12.5
+26.7 -5.7 +11.0 +21.7 +9.4 +8.0 +2.9 +0.7 -6.1
+11.0 +6.5 +13.4 +6.8
+17.7 +16.2 +11.6 +12.8 +18.2 +12.9 +13.6 +15.9 +12.0
+13.3
+12.2
+9.2 +7.2 +16.2 +12.2 +15.6 +6.6 +10.0 +9.6 +9.5 +11.9 +10.5 +13.4
+14.2 +12.4 +19.9 +5.4 +20.0 +2.3 +10.2
+9.8 -10.9
+10.4 +15.1 +12.4 +7.9 +8.3 +9.2 +12.5 49.3 +8.7 +10.1 +7.9 +12.2
+13.2 +16.8
+9.0 +6.9 49.7 +12.9 43.2 +20.8 +7.7
+1.0 +14.7 +11.5 +8.0 +4.0 +6.4 +12.7 44.6 7.2 17.2
+35.8 -22.1 +13.1
+31.3 -41.3
472.8 -4 7
+10.7
+13.0
-0.5 +6.1 +0.5
+6.4 +5.9 +5.4
+9.9 +8.7 +6.6
+8.1 +16 4 +20.3
+18.6 +21.9 +19.4
slt Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. &th Qtr.
1972:
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct.
Nov. Dec. 1973'
Jan.
feb.
Mar.
p
4-15.5
+3.9
+5.2
+14.2 +10.7 +10.1 +11.3 +13.8 +11.6 411.4 411 9
410.0
Reserve requiremente on Eurodollar borrowings are iinelided beginning Ortober 16, October 1, 1970. p - Preliminarv. NOTE-
1969,
+18.1
+11.9 +11.4 +20.6 +10.7
+14.0 +14.4
+9.5 +19.2 +15.4 +13.2 +7.8 +13.0 +11.4
+0.1 +0.6 +0.1 +1.5 +1.5 +0.7 +0.8 +0.8
+14.2 +17,1
+14.0 +10.2 +12.8 +10.4 +11.2
+23.3 +16.6 +18.2 +13.4 +21.6 +16.9 +16.7 +14.8 +16.3 +14.4 +12.3 412.5
+15.7 +21.6 +30.9
+12.9 + .7 +9.6
+19.4 +8. 1 +9.0
+1.2 +4.5 +6.1
+11.5
+12.3
and requirements on bank-related commercial paper
+0.8 +0.2 +1.2 +1.9
+0.1 -0.2 +0.2 +0.1 +0.3 -0.1 +0.2
+1.2
+0.1
+0.6 -0.4
+0.6
+0.1
+0.5
+0.4
+0.2 +0.2
are included beginning
CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
Appendix Table II
April 13, 1973
RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES (Seasonally adjusted,
Money Stock Measures
Reserves
Totat (1)T-
Period Annually: Dec. 1968 Dec. 1969 Dec. 1970
27,219 27,959 29,121
7
___
billions
of dollars)
Bank Credit Measures Total Adjusted Total Loans and Credit Time Investments Proy (10) (9) (8)
_
Available to Support Pvt. NonDeposits horrowed (3) (2)
Total (4)
Pvt. Dep. (5)
26,416 26,699 28,727
24,791 25,339 26,975
201.6 208.8 221.3
158.2 162.7 172.2
382.5 392.3 425.2
577.2 594.0 641.3
306,6 307.7 332.9
390.6 406.0 438.9
204.2 194.4 229.2
M
MI
2 (6)
3 (7)
Other
CD's (13)
NonDeposit Funds (14)
U.S. Gov't. Demand (15)
194.7 201.7 216.1
23.3 10.9 25.3
7.0 20.0 11.6
4.9 5.3 6.5
Thrift Institution Deposits (12)
180.9 183.5 203.9
Time Other than CD's (11)
19 1--Dec.
31,209
31,060
28,907
236.0
183,4
473.8
727.7
364.3
488.6
270.9
237.9
253.8
33.0
4.0
6.1
1972--Jan. Feb. Mar.
31,776 31,639 32,021
31,751 31,601 31,891
29,172 29,329 29,656
236.2 239,1 241.4
1.83.3 185.8 187.7
477.9 483.9 488.9
735.7 746.0 754.8
367.1 369.3 374.3
494.4 499.5 507.8
274.9 278.6 281.3
241.7 244.8 247.5
257.8 262.1 265.9
33.2 33.7 33.8
4.0 3.6 3.7
6.3 4.6 5.7
Apr. May June
32,612 32,852 13,027
32,467 32,720 32,938
29,824 29,920 30,144
243.0 243.8 245.1
189.1 189.6 190.7
492.1 495.5 499.3
761.5 767.9 775.1
378.1 383.0 385.1
510.1 518.6 519.8
284.3 288.6 291.7
249.1 251.8 254.2
269.4 272.4 275.7
35.2 36.8 37.5
3.5 3.7 3.8
6.8 7.5 6.2
July Aug. Sept.
33.171 33.381
33,018 33,038 32,870
30.317 30,562 30,890
247.7 248.6 250.1
193.1 193.8 194.8
504.5 508.4 512.1
784 . 791.6 799.1
388.3 391.4 994.5
526.2 532.2 537.5
295.0 298.9 301.9
256.8 259.8 262.0
279.6 283.3 286.9
38.3 39.1 39.8
3.9 4.2 4.1
5.2 4.5 5.1
33.832 31,883
33.295 31,297 30,063
30,973 29,496 28,862
251.6 252.7 255.5
195.9 196.5 198.7
516.4 519.8 525.1
807.0 813.7 822.0
398.4 401.9 406.4
542.6 551.9 556.8
304.8 308.4 312.8
264.8 267.1 269.6
290.6 293.9 296.9
40.0 41.2 43.2
4.3 4.3 4.4
6.3 6.9 6.5
32,242
30,848 29,787 29.521
29.411 29,296 29.61.4
255.4 256.7 256.8
198,4 199.3 198.9
527.9 530.5 532.9
828.8
31,649 1,995
409.2 414.8 412.9
565.4 575.7 585.0
316.9 322.6 330.9
272.5 273.8 276.0
300.8 304.3 306.5
44.4 48.8 54.9
4.5 4.5 4.9
7.1 7.2 7.5
315.5
272.0
43.5
4.4
8.6
315.6 316.7 317.3 318.9
271.6 272.8 272.7 273.4
;: ;:
44.0 43.9 44.5 45.5
4.1 4.6 4.7 4.7
7.2 6.8 6.9 6.7
320.1 322.2 323.2 32).0
272.8 274.0 274.1 274.4
::: ::::: 'i49. ; :iii iiiiiii i
47.3 48.2 49.1 50.7
4.5 4.4 4.4 4.7
5.5 6.9 8.6 7.9
327.5 330.1 331.4
275.3 275.6 276.2
i.;ijii:
52.2 54.5 55.2
4.8 5.0 4.9
7.0 6.3 8.1
333.2
276.9
56.3
5.0
8.2
334.3
276.6
.
49
7.7
13.327
Ott, NOv. Dec,
31,309
1973--Jan.
eb. Mar. p
834.8 839.4
Weekly:
Feb.
fat ,
31,959
29.886
29,367
258.2
200.8
530,2
1,898 3,245 1,791 2,1.58
31.007 31,720 30,537 30.576
29,241 29,91.5 28,958 29,548
254.6 255.7 255.0 254.3
197.4 198.7 198.0 197.
526.2 528.5 527.8 527.7
407.4 409.4 409.1 4:: 409.8
7 14 21 28
1.,609 31,568 1.945 31,476
30, 74 29,511 2 9.767 29,530
29,167 29.111 29,671 29,235
256.3 256.4 258.3 255.9
1.98.9 199.0 200.6 198.6
52,0 530.4 532,3 530.3
11.3 413.0
7 14 21
32,305 31,718 32,006
30,238 29,148 28,679
29,850 29,296 29.676
251.6 256.1 257.5
199.R 198.3 199.5
533.0 531,7 533.7
28 p
31,687
2 ,338
29,42
256.1
198.2
4 p
32,630
30,560
30,093
257.5
199.4
Apr.
NOTE:
p -
412.0
3
10 17 24 31
1973--Jan.
Reserve
? 2.9.)
534.1
:
iii iiii
617.5 417.2
ii;i: iiii
418.8 419.9 423.2
1
.i i iii.iii.. . i::
:::
: :::::::::: : ::: :::::: i iiiiiiiii iii iiiiijji iiiiiiiiiiii:::iii
A23.6 7iii
426.0
........
.
:.:::::::.::
iiiii l;:
:
iiiiii
i::
iii
57 8
requirements on Euro-dollar borrowings are included beginnng October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, bank-related commercial paper, and Euro-dollar October 1, 1976. Monthly data are daily averages except for nonbank commercial paper figures which borrowings of U.S. banks. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks. deposits. institution loans and investments and thrift total Weekly data are not available for M3 day of month. are for last
Preliminary.
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (1973, April 16). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19730417
@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19730417,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Bluebook},
year = {1973},
month = {Apr},
howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19730417},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}