bluebooks · December 17, 1973

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing).

A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Content last modified 6/05/2009.

(CONFIDENTIAL

FR)

December 14, 1973

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee

By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

December 14,

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

1973

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1)

During November, growth of M1 was more rapid than anticipated,

rising at an annual rate of nearly 11 per cent, but on balance in recent weeks.

11 has changed little

For the two-month target period as a whole,

the annual growth rate appears to be running at around 6-1/2 per cent, close to the upper limit of the Committee's range of tolerance, as the table shows.

With recent expansion of time deposits other than large CD's

slowing a little more than expected, growth in M 2 appears to be only a little above the mid-point of its two-month range of tolerance.

The

flattening of M1 in early December lends some credence to the view that the November upsurge reflected essentially temporary influences, including a rise in foreign commercial and central bank deposits and increased precautionary holdings by the public stemming from the energy crisis and the associated stock market decline. Table 1

Growth of Monetary Aggregates and RPD's in November-December Target Period Reserve and Monetary Aggregates

Range of

(Growth at SAAR in per cent)

Tolerance

Latest Estimates

-1 -- -3

-5.0

4-1/2--6-1/2

6.4

6-1/2--8-1/2

7.9

RPD's

Memo: Fed funds rate (per cent per annum)

for Statement Week Ending 10.17 12.5 10.04 12/12 Avg.

9--10-1/2

-2(2)

RPD's appear to have contracted during the November-December

target period at about a 5.0 per cent annual rate.

This shortfall was

greater than allowed for by the Committee's range of tolerance.

As shown

in Table 2, most of the shortfall in RPD's was attributable to a weaker than expected performance of large CD's (subject over most of the period to a reserve requirement of 11 per cent).

Relatively more reserves than

anticipated were absorbed by private demand deposits.

Table 2 Comparison of Projected Changes in RPD's by Use November-December 1973 (In

millions of dollars) Projection as of November 20, 1973 FOMC Meeting

Change in Total RPD's

Current 1 Projection

- 58

Change by Category of Use:

-23

2 /

Private demand deposits Time deposits other than large CD's

134

150

157

CD's and nondeposit funds

-165

-371-

Excess

- 64

-152

Change from October 1973 to December level consistent with mid-point of Committee's range of tolerance for RPD growth.

Excludes $60 million decline in required reserves resulting from December 7 change in marginal reserve requirement.

(3)

Early in

the inter-meeting period incoming data indicated that

growth of M1 appeared to be above,

and M2 about equal to,

the upper limits

of the ranges specified by the Committee.

In such circumstances,

would ordinarily have become somewhat more

restrictive in its

the Desk

reserve-

supplying operations, expecting the weekly average federal funds

-3rate to rise toward the 10-1/2 per cent upper limit of its tolerance.

Because of the uncertainties in

range of

the economic outlook stemming

from the mid-East oil embargo and the sensitive state of financial market psychology, however, the Committee directed the Account Manager to continue aiming for a weekly average Federal funds rate around 10-1/4 per cent. In the first two statement weeks of December the funds rate actually averaged 10.17 and 10.04 per cent respectively, with the rate dropping sharply on the last day of both weeks.

Member bank borrowing at the

Federal Reserve amounted to $1.5 billion in the first week of December, with excess reserves rising to $375 million, but in the following week excess reserves were negative, by $244 million, and borrowing dropped back to $1.3 billion. (4)

Since the last Committee meeting, most short- and long-term

market interest rates have fluctuated in

response to changing expectations

with regard to monetary policy and the impact of the energy crisis on the economy.

On balance since the last Committee meeting, most short-term

rates have declined somewhat.

For the most part, the decline in these

rates occurred following announcement of the reduction in marginal reserve requirements on December 7. 1/8 to 3/8 of a percentage point. bill rate was bid at 7.53 per cent.

The declines ranged generally from

Most recently the 3-month Treasury A few large banks have raised their

prime lending rate to 10 per cent, but the higher rate has shown no tendency to spread through the banking system. (5)

The table on the next page shows (in percentage annual

rates of change)

selected monetary and financial flows over various recent

-4time periods; figures in parentheses are preliminary revised growth rates based on new benchmarks and seasonal factor review.

Appendix Table III

compares money supply growth rates computed on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a last-month-of-quarter basis, old and revised figures.

Appendix Table IV compares old and revised money

supply growth rates over various other time intervals. are preliminary.

and includes both

All revised figures

-5Past 3 Calendar Years Dec. '72 over Dec. '69 Total reserves

8.4

Nonborrowed reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits

Past 12 Months Nov. '73 over

Nov. '72 7.3

(8.5)

(7.4)

8.8

5.5

(9.2)

(5.2)

Past 6 Months Nov. '73 over May '73 6.3

(6.6) 13.3 (9.9)

Past

3 Months

Nov.

'73

over

Aug. '73 4.9 (5.4) 13.2

(15.2)

Past Month Nov. '73 over Oct. '73

-8.1

(-5.3) -2.9

(-3.5)

9.0

8.4

8.1

1.4

-9.t

(9.3)

(8.4)

(8.8)

(2.1)

(-7.9)

10.9 (10.8)

Concepts of Money 7.5

5.6

4.8

4.4

(7.5)

(6.8)

(5.6)

(4.5)

11.3

8.2 (9.2)

8.1 (9.1)

8.7

11.6

(11.4)

(9.0)

(11.5)

12.8

8.5

7.2

7.4

9.9

M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M 2 (M1 plus time deposits atcommercial banks

other-than large CD's) M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Total member banks deposits (bank credit proxy adj.)

10. 7

11.1

7.5

2.5

0.5

(10.7)

(11.1)

(7.9)

(3.4)

(3.0)

12.4

13.8

9.1

5.3

5.0

Loans and investments of commercial banks

Short-term market paper (Monthly avg. change in billions) .9

Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 3

( .9)

1.7 (1.7)

0.1

0.4

-0.1 -

-2.0

(0.1)

(-1.4)

1.1

1.6

-2.3

(-1.8) 1.1 ~-"-3~-

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. 3/ November data not available. Data based on October 1973. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-ofmonth figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

-6Prospective developments (6)

Of the three alternatives summarized below for Committee

consideration, alternative B includes a growth rate for M1 over the first half of 1974 that is

consistent with the extension to mid-year of

the 5 per cent growth path adopted by the Committee at its previous meeting. This growth path starts from the revised September 1973 base (which is about $2-1/2 billion above the old series, as was indicated in

the previous bluebook).

In alternative B, M1 is targeted to increase at a 4-1/2 per cent annual rate from December

'73-to June '74.

This growth rate is

lower than 5 per cent to

compensate for the overshoot in M 1 growth in the fourth quarter. the chart on the next page,

As shown in

the estimated level of the money stock in December

is about $1 billion above the path level for that month.

Alternatives A and C

involve more and less rapid growth in the aggregates, respectively.

(Detailed

figures for the alternatives are shown on page 6a; all figures for the aggregates are based on revised data, though revisions are still in a preliminary

stage). Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

5-3/4

4-1/2

3-1/4

8-3/4

5-1/4

10-1/2

5-1/2

9-11

8-1/4-10-1/4

7-1/4--9-1/4

Targets (1st & 2nd qtrs. combined

Credit Proxy Associated ranges for December-January RPD M1

3-1/2-5-1/2

3--5

2-1/2-4-1/2

5-1/2--7-1/2

5--7

4-1/2--6-1/2

9--10-1/4

9-3/4--10-1/2

Federal funds rate range (inter-meeting period)

8-1/4--10

MONEY SUPPLY AND LONGER RUN TARGET PATH

RATIO SCALE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

- 280 5% GROWTH

.,,

,,--

--1270 REVISED Ml (PRELIMINARY)

-1260

A 1973

M 1974

-6aAlternative Longer-Run Targets for Key Monetary Aggregates

1973 1974

Alt. A

Alt.

NOv. Dec. Jan.

269.7 270.3 271.6

269.7 270.3 271.4

Mar.

273.7

273.0

Alt.

Alt. A

Alt.

269.7 270.2 271.2

568.1 570.5 574.1

272.3

582.2

Quarters:

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt.

568.1 570.5 573.8

568.1 570.4 573.1

888.2 892.8 899.0

888.2 892.7 898.4

888.2 892.6 897.6

580.1

577.8

912.2

909.3

906.3

Rates of Growth

1973

4th Q.

6.6

9.3

8.6

8.5

1974

1st Q.

5.0

8.2

6.7

5.2

8.7

7.4

6.2 8.3

6.1 7.7

Months: Dec.

1974

2.7 5.8

2.7 4.9

2.2 4.4

Adjugted Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C

5.1 5.1 4.9 7.6 6.9 5.7 Total Reserves Alt. C Alt. B Alt. A

Alt. A

Alt.

Alt. C

Nov. Dec. Jan.

477.6 447.2 450.6

447.6 447.2 450. 2

447.6 447.2 449.6

34,830 34,876 35,561

34,830 34,872 35,521

34,830 34,862 35,471

32,652 32,739 32,819

32,652 32,725 32,780

32,652 32,725 32,731

Mar.

456.7

454.6

453.2

34,756

34,614

34,467

33,654

32,911

32,765

Jan.

1973

Quarters: 1973 4th Q.

1.2

2.9

2.7

1st Q.

8.5

4.5

2.2

0.7

-0.9

3.5 33.1

3.2 31.7

1974

Months: Dec. Jan.

-1. 1 9.1

-1. 1 8.0

-1. 1 6.4

3.6 34.3

Alt A

-1.2

-1.3

-1.3 4.3

5.4 14.5

5.2 13.2

4.9 11.7

-7(7)

With regard to money market conditions, the staff would

expect some decline in the Federal funds rate between now and mid-January if the Committee chooses

to provide the reserves consistent with alternative B.

A funds rate range of 9--10-1/4 per cent is shown for that alternative.

the rate were to drop toward the lower end of the range over the next few weeks, the staff would not anticipate that any significant further reductions would be needed in

the first few months of 1974 to be consistent with the

targeted growth rates for money. (8)

The decline in the funds rate expected under alternative B

(and the greater decline expected under alternative A) essentially reflects the substantial downward revision in the staff's projection of growth in nominal GNP and the associated weakening in the demand for money and credit. At the time of the last meeting the staff was projecting about a 9 and 8 per cent rate of growth in nominal GNP in the first and second quarters of 1974 respectively; currently, the projected rates of growth are about 6 and 5 per cent for the two quarters. (9)

If the Committee wishes to maintain money market conditions

close to those currently prevailing, the staff would expect growth in the aggregates to slow to alternative C dimensions.

With the Federal funds

rate unchanged, it is likely that market interest rates--particularly short-term rates--would adjust upward from current levels in the process of re-establishing a more normal relationship to the funds rate.

Current

levels of market rates are low relative to the funds rate--in part, apparently, because market participants are anticipating an economic slowdown and the money market easing that has accompanied slowdowns in the past.

-8(10)

Market interest rates, however, do not appear to have fully

discounted future declines in the funds rate.

Thus, an actual drop in the

funds rate, such as would be likely to occur under alternative B, might trigger sizable further declines in short-term interest rates and also some decline in long rates.

Expectational forces probably would carry market

rates down in the short run by more than is sustainable over the longer run, however, assuming the funds rate in the early months of next year remained On balance, over the next few weeks the

in the 9 per cent plus range.

3-month bill rate is likely to decline into a 6-1/2--7 per cent if the funds rate drops to 9-1/2 per cent or somewhat below.

This assumes no

substantial central bank sales of Treasury securities as a result of reflows of dollars from abroad. (11)

The greater decline in the funds rate under alternative A,

as compared with B, would intensify market expectations of declining interest rates.

If the funds rate were to drop rapidly and to fall below

9 per cent, the 3-month bill rate might well go to 6 per cent, and perhaps a little lower, at least temporarily.

Market expectations of a decline in

the discount rate would become much more prevalent. (12)

Among the assumptions we have made in working out the

various monetary and interest rate relationships are: in

large negotiable CD's,

(1) moderate growth

some part reflecting the lower cost of those

funds resulting from the recent reduction in marginal reserve requirements; (2)

continued fairly strong short-term credit demands by business

(at

least in the early part of next year when inventory accumulation is expected to be strong),

but only moderate business loan growth at banks unless the

prime loan rate drops relative to the commercial paper rate; (3)

no Treasury

-9cash borrowing until March (unless foreign central banks find it

necessary

to redeem sizable amounts of Treasury specials) and sharply diminished Federal agency borrowing; and (4) moderate growth in consumer-type time deposits at banks (under alternative C) and more rapid growth as market interest rates decline (under alternatives B and A) as banks reduce time deposit offering rates only with a lag.

-10Proposed directive language (13)

Presented below are three alternative formulations for

the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section.

As will be noted, alternatives A and C refer to

growth rates in the aggregates "so far this year."

For the period

through November, these are as follows in terms of the revised series: M 1 , 6.0 per cent; M2, 8.8 per cent; and the bank credit proxy, 11.1 per cent. Alternative A

To implement this policy, while taking account of international and domestic financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions conmoderate] growth in monetary aggregates over the sistent with [DEL: months ahead AT ABOUT THE RATES PREVAILING SO FAR THIS YEAR. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of international and domestic financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with SOMEWHAT SLOWER growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead THAN HAS OCCURRED SO FAR THIS YEAR. Alternative C

To implement this policy, while taking account of international and domestic financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with

moderate] [DEL: SLOWER growth in monetary aggregates over

the months ahead THAN HAS OCCURRED SO FAR THS YEAR.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

CHART 1

12/14/73

RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-- 34

-1

0 1973

t 1 i I Ill M J 1973

. . . . . . . . .

J 1972

i II

~ l

* Break in Series Actual Level of RPD After Changes in Reserve Requirements Effective November 9, 1972, July 19, 1973,

and October 4, 1973

STRICTLYCONFIDENTIAL (FR)

CHART 2

12/14/73

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - 270

61/2% growth

250

for Nov -0ec

4%/% growth

BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2

255 580

560 570 8% 2 % growth for Nov Dec

540

560

520 6'%% growth

550

500

-540

440o -

1972

1973

S 0 1973

N 4)

-CHART 3

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 12/14/73

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLILARS

470

450

430

-I410

F I i I 1 I 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 I I I Io TOTAL RESERVES

1972

1973

'" eak in series, Actual Level of Total Reserves After Changes in Reserve Requirements and October 4, 1973

1973

ltective November 9, 1972, July 19, 1973,

CHART 4

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET C

INTEREST RATES

WEEKLY AVERAGES

FEbERAL FUNDS RATE /

1972

1973

1972

1973

1972

1973

TABLE 1

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ---------------------

DECEMBER 14, 1973

BANK RESERVES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) 4eow-

-----

W --------------------------------ft---------------f--------ft-----------------------------------------------

------------

I REQUIRED RESERVES I AGGREGATE RESERVES .----------------------------------------------------------I--.---II SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ----------------- ft----1(---------------------------------CDOS AND MONBORROWED I PRIVATE OTHER --......---------------------I TOTAL I SEAS ADJ I NON SEAS ADJ II RESERVES RESERVES I DEMAND TIME DEP NON OEP RESFRVES AVAILARLE FOR PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS

PERIOf

----------------------------------------------------------

fl)

MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONSI ---------------1973--OCT. 9 NOV. I DEC. I 1 ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE ***-***-------------II OUARTERLYS I

I I 32.759 32,540 (32,5271 I I

9TR. OTR. QTR. GTR.

I I I

Is.5 1.0 11.6 -3.1)

1 MONTMLYI 1973--OCT NOV.

I I

DEC.

( I1

NOV.-DEC. I I WEEKLY LEVFLS-SMTLLIONS I ---------- ----I OCT. 3 10 1 1 74 31 NOV.

DEC.

7 14 21 28 S 12

I 1

(3)

34,971 34.777 (34*745)

----

(4)

33.553 33.513 (37,840)

--------------

1 1

f )

(St

I 19.899 19.889 20.031)

8.299 8,428 ( 8,456)

2.9 2.2 1.4 3.21

7.7 9.9 14.5 13.2)

(

--------

(7)

4,304 4,026 ( 3.933)

2.212 2.238 2,218)

I 1413--1ST 2ND Ro 4TH

I II I II 32.661 (I 32.620 it (32952) II 91 (2)

"wo-ft. GOVOT ANO INTERBANK

n.9 -9.6 -o .5)

9 1

99 I II

I I

8.8 5.8 10.3 1.6)

(

-7.1 17.3 12.4 -2.8)

32,715 32.558 32.481 32.785 32.798

I if II I 1 II t II f

32,553 32.672 32,836 32,374 32.782 32.274

-. 0 9

I I

32,496 32,464 32,844 32,301

1 I 1

32,729 32,156

(

16.7 18.7 4.01

-55.8 -98.4 -27.7)

11.4)

-63.6)

I 1

9 1 I I

1 1

90.2 85.4 92.5 -59.0)

I 14.1 -8.1 -1.1)1

19.3 -2.9 -24.1)

3P,674 32.808 32.524 32.978 32.764

I -4.6)

-16) )

4.0)

9 34,644 34,876 34,867 35.258 35,023

33*224 33.438 33,672 33.571 33,725

If 1 II

34,658 34.675 35,180 34.544

33,235 32.943 33,841 33,715

It 1

34.958 34.300

33.164 319729

(

1., -0.6 8.7)

I 9 1

1 I

I 9

19.980 19.595 20.06% 19.82A 20*071

89196 89262 8,298 89326 8.354

4,096 4.500 4,336 4.283 4,186

1,970 2,067 2,343 2,281 2,259

19681 19,914 20,011 19,909

8,379 8,433 8,432 8,467

4.165 4,111 3,973 3,892

2,162 2,211

20,044 20040

8,430 8,454

3.900 39927

2,229 29144

2*336 2*243

m m mm m mm m -...... .. .. m--------------------- m-m-----------------.. -----. w-----..w---m -................--NOTEt DATA SmOWN IN PaRENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REOUIRFMENTS EFFECTIVE JULY 19. AND OCT 4v 1973. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF NOVERMBER 20. 1973 THE COMMTTTEE AGREFD ON A RPD RANGE OF -3 TO -1 m

PER CENT.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

TABLE 2

DECEMBER 14,

MONETARY AGGREGATES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

-~~-~-

I I f

PERIOD --

~---

. . . -------o. ft.---

MONEY SUPPLY NARROW I BROAD (Mil (M2) - - - -

rI)

I I I

I U.S. ADJUSTED II I CREDIT II AOVT. PROXY II DEPOSITS I

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - -m-

(21

SSI 557.1 562.5 (56*.4)

264,4 266.a (267.2)I

13)

446.5

II IFI II

I I I

446.7

(446.9)

1973--1ST 2NO 3RO ATM

1973--OCT NOV. DEC.

5. 9.5 5.1 ( 8,8)

15.0 122.2 10.5 ( 0.9)

I 1 I I

10.4 11,6

< 4.1)

7.9)

( 6.6)

1.6 0.5 1 0.5)

( 0.5)

I I

447.7 446.1 448.3 445.0 445.8

WEEKLY LEVELS-SBILLTONS I --------------------- 1 OCT. 3 10 17 24 31 NOV.

21 23 DEC.

---------------

5 P 12 RE

~~--

-- ft

(7)

356.1 356,8 (359.5)

292.8 295.8 (297.2)

23,1 16.0 13.4 ( 4.4

9.5 8.7 9.6 9.8 (11.5)

16.2 12.3 ( 5.7)

1 9.0)

290.4 291.5 292.5 293.3 294.7

295.1 295.9 295.3 296.0

I I I

- - - - -

63.4 61.1 (62.4)

I I

6.9 7.1 ( 7.2)

64.9 63.9 63.1 63.2 62.5

I 1

7.1 7.0 7.2 6.8 6*5

61.7 60,8 60.8 610.1

6.7 6.7 7.4 7.6

622

7.2 7.4

NOV.-MEC.

(6)

OTAR QTR. OTR. QTR,

MONTHLY

6.6 6.0 ( *4.8

(5)

(61

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY ---------

I NONDEPOSIT I SOURCES OF I FUNDS

- - - - - - - - --

MONWTLY LEVELS-SMILLIONSI 1973--OCT NOV. DEC*

TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS OTHER I I TOTAL I THAN CO S I CD S

26.4. 263.6 265.4 262.1 264. 266. 2670,

I F I

267.6 265. 266,4 266.n

-----------------------

SSSI 555.1 555.1 558.0 556.0 559,.6 561.5 562.9 562,9 561.4

t 1 II I II II IF 1 IF II II (I )i 11 II II

446.8 444.3

563.2 562.5 I

59 6.9 7.5 6.8 5.3 6.4.7 4.S 6.

446.4

446,6 446.5

446.8 1

',1

I II 1 II

6.5 5.7 5. 5.5

1.7 2.4 (9.1)

( 5.7)

355.3 355.4 359.6 356.5 357.?

I ! ! I

I F I

356.8 356.7 356.2

357.1

3S7.7 358.7 J

F F

206.6 I1

6, (

tf-----------0------------------

NOTE, DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHSEES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

P - PRELIMINARY PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATED

1973

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) DECEMBER 14,

1973

TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted)

srket.

Open Bills & Accept.

(1)

tonthly 1973 -- May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

-506 649 1,073 -753 -494 1,972 -1,008

Coupon Isapes

tot

Agency Issues

RP's Net 3/

Da aily Average Reserve Effect 2/ Total

a Member Bank Borrowing

Open Market Operetions

(7)

45 -470 311 -304 -133 373

66 105 1,185 557 418 550

200 175 795 680 475 1,005 860 475

-293 850 -230 -998 389

-5 280 297 -208 -176

593 -157 -77 304 13

-1,470 1,085 2,416 -915 7 2,440 -1,307

1,437 -1.450 2,090 -818 -583 1,985

66 1 263 93 -282 -394

-1,392 1,084 -8O0 978 1,150 -668

1,880 -5,059 5,238 383 1,019

1,491 -559 632 351 -95

-670 -168 -182 743 -457

-228 27 533

-21 209 168 -20 -30 172 71

Veetily 1973 --

-----

152 --

1,567 -5,668 4,648 -71 716

-418 -303 3 13

--499 34

*-50 20

-2,811 2,571 907 -1,522

-3,229 2,268 1,458 -1,454

-326 -848 2,562 -827

-285 351 48 -281

288 738 -2,422 420

-78 122 24 -226

-245 119 164 -462

-304 - 33

--- --84

593 -1,393

288 -1,510

710 -824

189 -175

-414 382

77 -113

408p -504

3 10 17 24 31

313 589 590 302 303

Nov.

7 14 21 28

Dec.

5 12

Oct.

19 26 ..

Represents change in Systems parttoiio trom ena-or- perio to ena-or-perlao; includes reoeTnptions in regutar ULit au.i.ons. Represents change in daily average level from preceding period. Ihcludes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sumn f changes ih vault cash, currency Lt circultion, Treasury operations, F.1. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. Reserves to support private honbanfk deposits. Target change for November and December reflects the target adopted at the November 20, 1973 FOMC fieetihg. target change for previous moftha reflects the bluebook patterhs that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. *

Thr lcl)r effect of special certificate (i.e., borrowing by Treasury from F.R.).

T (11)

-942 -1,148 -143 531 295 -902

(4)

available res. 5/ Iavailable (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) 5/ reaseyes 5/

(10)

(6)

(3)

(9)

(8)

(5)

(2)

In resetve categries

req. res. against U.s.G. and interb.

Other 4/ Factors

SSTRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL DECEMBER 14, 1973 TABLE

(FR)

SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS Millions of dollars

Dealer

Dsei ( p*9ilonio

Period

" Bils

(1) 1972 --

eoaler Poamions ____

Coup on (2)

ssues

Member Bonk Reserves Positions

Coporae uondi

(3)

____________________..__________

Municipal

Bondp (4)

Borrowing at FRB**'

Kcesa**

Reserves (5)

Se a na l (7)

Total1 (6)

Basic Reserve 8 New Vork' Y

(8)

eficic

Sfthera (9)

383 40

796 -13)

1,223 12

-5,635 -1,6J8

-5,720 -1,919

1,299 -301

197 0

384 36

63L -240

2,561 688

-5,243 -1,8J3

-8,864 -4,048

3,096 3,510

1,039 953

84 58

191 291

314 219

606 1,049

-4,561 -4,977

-3,622 -4,958

1973 -- Jan. Feb. Mar.

3,407 2,132 2,490

720 562 - 50

27 77 24

177 123 125

289 207 177

1,161 1,594 1,825

-4,550 -4,187 -4,273

-5,469 -5,436 -5,847

Apr. Kay June

2,457 1,894 2,281

106 421 562

12 66 33

60 151 120

255 161 234

1,688 L,843 1,851

3 30 75

-3,293 -3,019 -3,507

-6,577 -5,872 -6,443

July Aug. Sept.

1,425 1,690 2,745

265 39 395

24 0 6

139 70 80

285 177 216

1,953 2,165 1,801

155 163 148

'2,460 -2,689 '3,173

-6,106 -4,949 -5,355

Qcc. Nov.

2,565 *2,804

484 *793

44 90

226 148

227 170p

1,476 1,393p

126 4 8 p

-3,814 -4,469

-6,090

3 10 17 24 31

2,124 2,743 2,372 2,640 2,823

462 447 416 462 629

60 15 117 18 30

177 55 189 185

452 400 -91 370 131

1,519 1,351 1,169 1,912 1,455

144 131 120 125 119

-2,910 -3,526 "4,614 -3,906 -3,591

-4,612 -6,593 -6,669 -5,877 -5,773

7 14 21 28

2,973 2,975 *2,727 *2,357

1,299 859 * 470 * 644

2 75 86 197

154 167 104 168

265

1,170 1,521 1,569p 2 .188p

93 80 85p 84p

-5,168 -5,056 -4,157 -3,756

-6,867 -8,572 -8,757 -8,199

5 12 19 26

*3,090 *3,737

* *

100 8 1 0p

275 225p

6p - 40p

57p 45p

r ,628p 5,023p

Righ Low

4,291 1,916

1,585 -93

235

1973 --

High Low

3,737 897

1972 --

Rov. Dec.

1973 -- Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Bto:

746 910

163 3

36p 17p

l, 7 p 3 1, 02p

-8,186

-0,8 4p -0,523p

Trading positiois, which eiclude Treaeury bills financed by repurciaee agreeu&i aie oo a comni ien' basis. Cowvernmien security dealer rading daiYstin Other security dealer positions are debt isaues over the near-erm. are indicators of dealer holdiiys available for ale maturing in 16 days or Ioe, borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds the basic reserve deficit is excess reserves les still in syndicate, excluding crad4ng positions. purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figurea. * STRICTLY COIpENTIA ** Beginning with January 1973,

monthly averages for exSqas reserves an

birrqwtuiu

are weighted averages of

cateiment week figqea.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) DECEMBER 14, 1973 TABLE

SELECTED INTEREST RATES Per Cent

Treasury Bil!s Period

Federal Funds (1)

90-Iay (2)

l-year. (3)

SS.hort rm

90-119 bay Commercial

CD's New Issue-NYC

Pappr (4)

60-89 Day , (5)

90-119 Day , (6) 1

..Long-Term

.. aaUtilit .. 1 Recently Municipal New Issue (7)

Offered (8)

...

U.S. Government (10-yr Constant

FNA Auction

Bond Buyer (9)

Maturity) (10)

Yie.ld

(11)

ligh Low

5.38 3.18

5.13 3.03

5.52 3.60

5.50 3.75

5.38 3.13

5.50 3.50

7.60 6,99

7.46 7.12

5.54 4.96

6.58 5.87

7.72 7.54

1973 -- Ili h Low

10.84 5.61

8.95 5.15

8.43 5.42

10.50 5.63

10.50 5.38

10.75 5.50

8.52 7.29

8 30 7.26

5.59 4.99

7.54 6.42

9.37 7.69

1972 -- Nov. Pec

5.06 5.33

4.78 5.07

5.20 5.28

5.18 5.40

5.00 5.19

5.13 5.38

7.09 7.15

7.18 7.18

5.02 5.05

6.28 6.36

7.71 7.68

1973 -- Jan Teb. Mar

5.94 6.58 7.09

5.41 5.60 6.09

5.58 5.93 6.53

5.76 6. 7 6.76

5.61 6.16 6.78

5.75 6.28 6.75

7.38 7.40 7.49

7.35 7,41 7,51

5.05 5.13 5.29

6.46 6.64 6.71

7.69 7.72 7.78

Apr. May Tune

7.12 7.84 8.49

6.26 6.36 7.19

6.51 6.63 7.05

7.13 7.26 8.00

7.06 7.44 7.98

6.75 7.41 8.13

7.48 7.51 7.64

7.48 7.50 7.64

5.15 5.15 5.18

6.67 6.85 6.90

7.89 7.98 8.07

T7l0y Aug. prpt.

10.60 10.50 10.78

8.01 8 67 8.29

7.97 8.32 8.07

9,26 10.26 10.31

9.09 10.25 10.31

9.19 10.40 10.50

8.01 8.36 7.88

7.97 8.22 7.99

5.40 5.48 5.10

7.13 7.40 7.09

8.46 8.83 9.32

Oct. Nov.

10.01 10.03

7.22 7.83

7.17 7.40

9.14 9.1t

9.15 9.06

9.08 8.91

7.90 7.89

7.94 7.94

5.05 5.18

6.79 6.73

9.01 8.84

1971 -- Oct. 1 10 17 24 31

10.72 9 87 10.07 9.98 9.90

7.22 7.30 7.19 7.06 7.20

7.51 7.35 7.27 6.91 6.88

9.63 9.53 9.33 9.06 8.45

9.75 9.50 9.25 8.75 8.50

9,50 9.38 9.25 8.75 8.50

7.75 7.96 7.99 7.97 7.76

7.90 7.88 7,98 7.98 7.97

5.04 4.99 5.05 5.12 5.17

6.89 6.77 6.80 6.75 6.72

9.11

Nov. 7 14 72 28

9.71 10.03 10.23 10.09

7.84 8.34 7.64 7.67

7.30 7.54 7,47 7.32

8.78 9.03 9.28 9.25

8,75 9,00 9.25 9.25

8.50 8.88 9.13 9.13

8.00 7.98 7.86 7.85

8.02 7.99 7.85 7.87

5.19 5.27 5.13 5.15

6.76 6.76 6.71 6.70

fec. 5 12 19 26

10.17 10.04

7.36 7.55

7.31 7.27

9.33 9.48

9.50 9.50

9.25 9.13

8.66 8,09

7.98 7.97

5.15 5.06

6.72 6 .70 p

1972 --

Notes:

8.97 8.94 8.87 8.81 --

For columnm 7, 8 and 10 Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement wek averages of daily data. Columns 5 anT 6 are oneday Wdeday quote. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. auction yield is the the statement week. Column 11 gives FNM auctio6 data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FN average yield in the bi-weekly auction for phort-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgagee.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) December 14,1973

Appendix Table I RESERVES VARIABLES MONETARY AND Money Stock M suras

Reserves

Perid

Total

(-- -(7)

tnborryewd -

Available to Support Pvt. Deposits - f - '

N 1 T -

M 2 (5 ->T

M 3

Bank .rittt Adjusted Credit Proxy 1 ((mt

M0ahurea Total 2 Loans and Investment -) -

Total Tim '"1-

,ther, Time Other than CD's

Thrift Institution Deposits "

CD's (Mz

Nondeposlt Funds tT1O

IT S. Gov't Detnand

(Dollai Change in Billions)

(Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth) Annually. +7.8

+9.3

+7.5 -1.1 +6.1 +7.2 410.6

+5.3 -2.8 49.6 48.1 -47.1

falf 1971 Half 1971 Ralf 1972 Half 1972

+9.7 4 .4 +11.7 -9.0

49.6 46.3 +12.1 +2.0

410.7 +3.4 +8.6 +10.4

1st Ialf 1973

47.4

44.9

+11.4

46.0

3rd Qtr, 1971 4th Orr. 1971

+6.5 42.3

46 6 +6.0

+3.2 +3.6

44.1 +1.9

1t Otr, 2nd Jtr 3rd Otr 4ttiOtr

1972 1972 1972 1972

+10.4 412.6

+10.7

43,6

-6.8 44.8

+10.4. +6.6 +9.9 +10.6

tat 0tr 2nd Qtr. 3rd Otr.

1973 1973 1973

+8.8 +5.8 410 3

-7.1 +17.3

+10.5 +12.0 +13.6

+1.7 +10.3 +0.3

*5.7 +9.5 45.1

+21 R -5 2 +14.5 422.1 +8.8

+26 7 -5 7 + 11.0 +21.7 +9.4 +8.0 +2.9 4+0.7 -6 1 +13 5 49 8 -10.9

-11.0 +6.5 +13.4 +6 8 +3.9 49.0 +6.9 +9.7 +12.9 +3.2 +70.8

+1.0 414 7 411.5 +8 0 44 0 +6.4 +12.7 44.6 47.2 7 2 45.2 +13.3

+31.3 -41.1 -10.5 426.1 41 1 424.0 -44 9 -30 3 +22.8 +19.3 -2 0

+22.8

-0 5

-4.7 +13.4 +9.6 +9.4 +16.6

+6.1

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

Ist 2nd 1st 2fid

1972

1973

dt -

Jann. Feb. ar. Apr May. Tune Tuly Aug. qept. Oct. Nov. 4ee. Ja,. Feb. 4ar. Apr. $lay June July Aug. Sept Oct. Nlv.p

414.2

46.4

*4,2 + 6 -1 9 +18.7

411.4 +12.5

435.8 -22,1 +13.3 -12 3 44.4 ,0.6 +269 -5 1 49.7 +14.1 -8 1

413.1

412.4

-r--mi-na-y

+8.1 -1 7 +8.6 +7.2 +9.7

+7.7

+18.6 4.4 +13.1 440.9 -9 6

+8 3 +2.9

+10,9 42.9 +8.1 +11.2 +14.6

+11.5 -4.8 +17.9 +18.2 +15.5

+11.2 +1.4 411.1 +16.7 +13.3

46.3 +3.6 47.1 +17,4 417.0

+2.9 -12.4 +14.4 47.7 +10.1

+2 6 +13.0 -8 4 -7.6 +0.4

-6,6 +0.5

-7.1 -0.4 -0.3 +0.6

-1 4 +1.1 -+0.4

+11 4 +10.8

+13.5 +13.0

+9.5 +0.4 +B 2 +9 4 +11.6

+10.1 +14.9 +4 0 +7.4 +7.7 +10,8 +8.5 +10.3

+16.6 49.8 +13.0 +12.1

+10.1 48.4 411.4 411.1

+12.1 49.7 +13.6 +14.7

+21.6 +13.4 +15.4 +14 5

+20.0 +12.1 +13 7 +12.1

+19.3 +14.3

+7.7

+9.1

+13.8

+16.6

+20.0

+9.2

411.6

+18.9

+1.2

-1.4

+6 0 +8.7

+8 9 +10 5

+6.7 +9.8

48.5 +10.6

+9,8 +16 6

+8.0 +15.9

+14.5 +13.5

+1.7 +1.8

-0.4

+1.1

9.2 +12.7 +6.1 +8.5 48 2 +10.3 6 +10.2 48

+1 . 9 +10 7 412.4 +11.5

+11.0 +11.5 +9. +12.1

415.7 +11.1 4+13.0 +15.8

+15 4 414.8 +14.0 +14.4

16,1 +10.8 +12.3 +11 6

+19.1 +14.7 +16.2 +13.9

+0 8 +3 7 +2.4 +3.3

-0.3 -+0.4 +0.3

-0.4 +0.5 -1.1 41.4

6 +9.4 +4 4

415 0 +12,7 +10 5

419.9 +12.7 +11 4

423.1 +16.0 +13.6

+9 5 +8.7 +9.80

+13.6 +9.4 +3.1

+11.7 47.1 4.7

+0.5 +0.7 +1 6

40.9 -2.4 --

+10 4 +15.1 +12.4 +7 9 4 3 *9.2 +17.5 49 1 48 7 410 1 47 9 417 2

+13.2

+9 2 +7 7 +16.2 417,7 415 6 +6.6 410,0 +6 9 +9 5 '11,9 410 1 411 4

+15.3

+17.7 416 7 411.6 +12.8 +18 2 +12.9 +13 6 +15 9 412 0 +11.5 +14.2

419.2 +15 4 413.2 +7.8 +13 0 411 4 +12.3 +14.0 410.2 +12.8 +10.4

+18 9 +20.0 +17 4 +15 8 +13.4 414 5 417 0 415 5 +15.7 415.5 413 2 +12.7

+0.1 +0.6 40.1 -0.1 +1.5 +1.5

-0.1 -0 3

+0.8 +0.8 +0.8 +0.2 +1.2 +1.9

+0.1 +0.3 -0 1 +0 2 -40 1

+0.2 -1.7 +1.1 +1.1 +6.7 -1 3 -1.0 -0.7 +0.6 +1.2 40.6 -0.4

+6 4 45. 4-4,7 +8.1 +9,8 410.4 45 1 +6 4 +3.0 +10 4 +11 6

+9,. 4±0.0 +6.9 P.4 49.1 4'.6 +5.6 -+4.? 43.2 +9.1 +9.9

+8.3

417 8

+15.8 +14.4 +10 2 +9.4 +7.8

+1.2 +4.5 +6.1 +3.8 +3.1 +0.3 +2.4 +2.5 -0.2 -3 4 -2 3

+0.1

+3.6 +2.6 +6.0 48.4 46.6 +8.3

-0.5 +7.5 +10.7 +12.4 450 -1.4 -2 1 +4.6 +10.9

48.0

416.8 +14.2 +10 7

410.1 411.1 +13.9

411.6 411.2 412.0 +9.8 12.4

416

4 +19,7 +13.1 +12.1 +11.1 +8.8 +17.0 +5 4 *1.A 401

413.9 +17.3 411.4 415 2 +6.5 +9.9 +14 4 414 2 411.2 +21.4 +14 3

+21.7 +17.2 +13 1 +16.6 48.2 +13.3 +16.7 4 1 +6.7 +5 0

417.1

411.2

+15.7 +21.6 +30.9 +21.0 +18.2 48.1 412.6 +20 4 +6 8 +1 7 +2 4

+17.9 +5.7 +9.6 +8.7 +9.1 +8.1 +5.5 +14.0 +9.6 +16.2 +12 3

417.3 +15.4

410.8

+6.5 -+2.7 +6 1 +6.8

4-4.3 +3 4 44.4 +5.7

41.1 -0.3 +0.4

-0.2 +0.2

40.7

+0.4 +0.2 +0.3 +0.2 +0.9 +0.6 +0.1 -0 6 +0.2

+0.6 +6.1 40.3 -1 7 -1.2 +0 5 -1 7 +0.8 +0.9 +1 5 -0 7

n Furodallar hbrrowtngs are included heglhnfng October 16, 1969. and requiremaets on bank-related cortnterial paper are included beginning October 1, lF:. RIleNerve Reqirementos t1Grfiwthrates are based on eqtfmattedmonthly average levels derived by averaging end of currrentmonth and end of previous month reported data Onts are preltminary and tmaybe subject to minor changes. 7/ Seres rev-sed to Incorporate new seasonal factors and Tune 30. 1973, benchmark adltutments

1970.

Appendix Table II RESERVES VARIABLES MONETARY AND

(Seasonally adjusted, RESERVES

No-

Totucal

(1)

borrowed (2)

Support Pvt,

Dpoisiea

()

Total (4)

I Pvt. Oep. (5)

2 (6)

OTHER

BANK CREDIT MEASURES

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

Available to Period

CONFIDENTIAL December 14,

billions of dollars)

"3 (7)

Adjusted Credit Frjy (8)

Total 1 Loans and Total Time Invesmeots (10) (9)

Time Other than CD's (11)

Thrift Inatitutionl DeposIta (12)

CD'a (13)

(FR) 1973

tonDeposits Funds (14)

ARNUALLY. sec. 1969 Dec, 1970 Oec. 1971

27,959 29,121 31,209

26,699 28,727 31,060

25,339 26,975 28,907

208.8 221.3 236.0

162.7 172,2 183.4

392.3 425.2 473.8

594.0 641.3 727.7

307.7 332.9 364.3

405.6 438.5 487.6

194.4 229.2 270.9

183.5 203.9 237.9

201.7 216.1 253.8

10.9 25.3 33.0

1972--July Aug. Sept.

33,171 33,381 33,327

33,018 33,038 32,870

30,317 30,562 30,890

247.7 248.6 250.1

193.1 193.8 194.9

504.5 508.4 512.1

784.0 791,6 799.0

388.3 391,4 394,5

525.1 531.4 537.7

295.0 298,9 301.9

256.8 259.8 262.0

279.6 283,2 286.9

38.3 39.1 39.8

3.9 4.2 4.1

Oct. Mov. Dec.

33,832 31.883 31,309

33,295 31,297 30,063

30,973 29,496 28,862

251.6 252.7 255.5

195.9 196.5 198.7

516.4 519.8 525.1

807.0 813.6 822.0

398.4 401.9 406.4

542. 552.4 559.0

304.8 308.4 312.8

264.8 267.1 269.6

290.6 293.8 296.9

40.0 41.2 43.2

4.3 4.3 4.4

1973--Jan. Feb. Mar.

32,242 31,649 31,999

30,848 29,787 29,526

29,411 29,296 29,622

255.4 256.7 256.6

198.4 199.3 198.7

527.9 530.5 532.6

828.7 834.9 839,7

409.2 414.8 421.6

567.3 578.5 586.8

316.9 322.6 330.9

272.5 273.8 276.0

300.8 304.4 307.0

44.4 48.8 54.9

4.5 4.5 4.9

Apr. May June

32,326 32,445 32,460

30,167 30,195 30,800

29,860 30,095 30,511

358.2 260,5 263.2

199.5 201.6 203,9

536.2 540.6 545.3

845.6 852.0 859.4

426.2 430.5 434.5

593.2 601.4 605.5

336.7 341.8 344.1

278.0 280.1 282.0

309.4 311.4 314.2

58.7 61.7 62.0

5.1 5.4 5.6

July Aug. Sept. Oct.

33,569 33,898 34,145 34,971

32,332 31,996 32,604 33,553

31,324 31.961 32,311 32. 75

264.3 263, 9 263.4 264.4

204.9 204.2 203.3 204.0

547.6 550,5 552,3 557 ,1

863.5 866.5 868A8 815.4

437,7 443.9 445.9 446.5

612.2 620.7 622.8 626,3

347.7 353.6 355.6 356.1

283,3 286.6 288,9 292.8

315.9 315.9 316.6 318.2

64.5 67.0 66.8 63.4

6.5 7.1 7.3 6.9

Nov, p

34,-"'

33,513

32,540

266.8

205.9

562.5

882.6

446.1

628.9

356.8

295.8

.......... ? . ....

61.1

7.1

7 14 21 p 28 p

34,658 34,675 35,180 34,544

33,235 32,943 33,841 33,715

32,496 32,464 32,844 32,301

266.4 267.0 267.6 265.4

205.9 206,2 206.5 204.6

561.5 562,9 562.9 561.4

446,8 446.4 446.6

295.1 295.9 295,3

5 p

34,954

33,164

32,729

266.6

205.8

563.2

446.8

Nov.

Dec.

446.5

ii 356.8 i;::;::::::::::I;: 356.7 iili 357.1 ::.:::...:::::::: 356.2 iiiiiii!iiiii

357.7

iiiiiiii li ii

296.6

61.1

6.7 6.7 7,4 7.6 7.2

::::::::::::::::::::: ::::::::::::::::::::::

Iil I. 33. 3

61.7 60.8 :: .'ii!........60.8 61.1

iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii i

:::::: ::::: :

...

20.0 11.6 4.0

::::::::::::::: :::::::

iiiiiiiii i

3jj

...

iiiiiii ll ii !

iili !:iii ii!i ;

"""""""""'""'"

p - Preliinary NOT1B Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commeecial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deppsita subject to reserve requirements, bank-related commercial paper and Eurodollar borrowings of U.S. banks. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks. Monthly data are daily averages except for nonbank coumercial paper figures which are for last day of month, Weekly data are not available for N, total loans and investments and thrift institution deposits. Estimated monthly average Levels derived by averaging end of current month and en4 of prevlous month reported data. / Series revised to lncorporate new seasonal factors and June 30, 1973, benchmark adjustmaeul, Data are preliminary and may be subject to minor changes.

U.S. t Demand (15) Gov'

Appendix Table III

1/ Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate)

M3 M 1972

9.2 (9.0)

(5.3)

6.1 (6.2)

(8.2)

1973

III

5.3

8.4

Q 11.1

M 14.9

13.2

(11.0)

(14.6)

(13.2)

8.5 (8.9)

10.0 (9.8)

10.7 (10.9)

12.1 (12.0)

10.3

12.4 (12.8)

12.2 <12.6)

11.5

11.4

(11.9)

8.6

10.0 (10.6)

8.2

8.0

(8.2)

10.3 (10.8)

(10.8)

8.6 (9.9)

7.1 (8.4)

10.2 (10.8)

9.5 (10.2)

1.7 (3.6)

4.7 (7.0)

5.7 (6.5)

10.3 (11.8)

6.9 (7.5)

0.3 (0.5)

5.1 (6.1)

7.7

(8.6)

(9.0)

(11.3)

7.8 (8.6)

(10.6)

8.5 (9.1)

5.1 (6.0)

7.0 (8.5)

4.4 (5.0)

6.6 (7.5)

9.5

9.4

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. 1/

12.7 (12.3)

(8.7)

III

Figures in parentheses are growth rates based on series revised for benchmark and seasonal factor changes.

Appendix Table IV Comparison of old and Revised M1 and M2 Growth Rates M1

Old

Revised

Old

6.6 8.3 4.6

6.3 8.7 5.7

11.4 10.8 7.5

11.2 11.1 8.5

1971 1st Half

10.1

9.9

14.9

14.8

2nd Half

3.0

2.6

7.4

7.1

1972 1st Half 2nd Half

7.7 8.5

7.7 9.4

10.8 10.3

10.7 11.0

1973 1st Half 2nd Half (est)

6.0 3.0

7.7 3.5

7.7 7.0

9.2

9.0

12.7

6.1

6.2

8.5

8.9

III IV

8.2 8.6

8.7 9.9

10.3 10.2

10.8 10.8

Revised

Annual: 1971 1972 1973 (est) Half year:

9.0 7.7

Quarterly: 1972

1973

12.3

1.7

3.6

5.7

6.5

10.3

11.8

9.5

11.3

0.3 5.8

0.5 6.5

5.1 8.8

6.0 9.3

-0.5 6.1 -0.5

4.7 7.0 -0.9

6.4 5.9 4.7

8.7 6.8 3.8

April May

7.5 10.7

6.5 13.4

8.1 9.8

8.3 12.3

June

12.4

15.1

10.4

13.0

July

5.0

4.5

5.1

6.6

August

-1.8

0.4

6.4

7.2

September

-2.3

-3.6

3.9

4.1

4.6

6.3

10.4

11.2

10.9 1.8

10.8 2.2

11.6 4.1

11.5 4.9

II III IV (est) Monthly: 1973 January February March

October

November December (est)

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1973, December 17). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19731218

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19731218,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1973},
  month = {Dec},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19731218},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}