bluebooks · January 21, 1974

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing).

A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Content last modified 6/05/2009.

(CONFIDENTIAL

FR)

January 18, 1974

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee

By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

January 18, 1974

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND ONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Recent developments (1)

New revised data for monetary aggregates, scheduled for

publication on January 31, 1/show that M 1 increased at an annual rate of about 8-1/2 per cent in December, substantially more rapidly than anticipated at the time of the December FOMC meeting.

But there has

been little change in M1, on balance, since mid-December, and as shown in Table 1 below, for the December-January target period M1

growth now

appears to be near the middle of the Committee's range of tolerance. Growth in M 2 appears to be close to the top of its range, as net inflows of consumer-type time deposits to banks have been well sustained.

The

sharp December rise in M1 appears partly attributable to a late month bulge in foreign commercial bank deposit balances with U.S. banks. Without the increase in deposits held by foreign banks, the M 1 growth rate in December would have been about 6-1/2 per cent.

The new revised data for M1 indicate that its level for recent months is about $1 billion below the level of the preliminary revised series (and about $2 billion above the old published series). The new series incorporates nonmember bank figures based on the October call report; this is the first year since the early 1960's that useable deposit data from the spring and fall surprise calls have been available to us. Rates of growth for the currently published, preliminary revised, and new revised series are shown in appendix Table IV.

-2Table 1 Growth of Monetary Aggregates and RPD's in December-January Target Period Reserve and Monetary Aggregates Growth at SAAR in per cent)

Range of Tolerance

RPD's

8-1/4--11

9.1

M1 M1

3--6

4.91/

5--8

7.8 7.8 1/ 1/ Avg.

Memo:

Fed funds rate (per cent per annum)

Latest

Estimates

8-3/4--10

for Statement week ending 9.76 Jan. 9 Jan. 16 9.77

These figures are based on the new revised series. December-January rates of growth for the preliminary revised series would be little different. (2)

RPD's have been expanding at about a 9 per cent annual rate

in the December-January target period, well within the growth range desired by the Committee.

As indicated in Table 2, however, there were minor

deviations from projections made at the time of the December FOMC meeting in the use of RPD to support various types of deposits and excess reserves.

-3Table 2

Comparison of Projected Changes in RPD's by Use December 1973-January 1974 (In millions of dollars) Projections as of December 18, 1973 FOMC meeting Change in Total RPD's RPD's 1/1/

Current Projection

167

137

Change in Category of Use: Private demand deposits

362

Time deposits other than large CD's CD's and nondeposit funds

55 -318

Excess 1/

94 -263

- 31

Change from November 1973 to January 1974 level consistent with midpoint of Committee's range of tolerance for RPD growth on basis of new estimates of deposit data.

(3)

The Federal funds rate declined to around an average of 9-3/4 per

cent soon after the last Committee meeting--and the level of member bank borrowings has dropped to an average of about $1 billion during the past four statement weeks--as the Desk took actions to ease conditions of reserve availability somewhat, in accordance with the Committee's policy instructions. Deposit data available in the early part of January, however, suggested that both M1 and M2,

partly influenced by increases in

banks, were expanding at rates somewhat in excess growth range established by the Committee,

foreign deposits at U.S. of the upper limits of the

while RPD was estimated to be

increasing at a rate just below the upper limit of its

range.

In view of

the sensitive state of financial markets and the general economic situation,

-4a majority of Committee members concurred on January 11 in the Chairman's recommendation that the Desk should continue to maintain prevailing money market conditions, aiming at a Federal funds rate of 9-3/4 per cent. (4)

Bond market yields have generally moved up about 10 to 30

basis points since the last Committee meeting, responding first to the potential and then to the actual weight of a heavy calendar of new corporate and municipal issues. have moved on divergent paths.

Meanwhile, short-term interest rates Treasury bill rates have increased from

20 basis points (in the longer maturity area) to 50 basis points (in the shorter maturity areas).

In the private market--with business short-term

credit demands slackening in December--rates on commercial paper and short-term bank CD's have declined 1/8 to 1/4 of a point, and banks with prime rates of 10 per cent have dropped the rate to 9-3/4 per cent. (5)

The advance in bill rates appears attributable mainly to

the dispelling of expectations held by many market participants that monetary policy would ease significantly over the near-term future.

The

fact that the Federal funds rate failed to move down from the 9-3/4 per cent level achieved early in the inter-meeting period appears to have been mainly responsible for this reassessment of expectations.

The

process was reinforced, however, by the sharp rise in M1 reported for December.

And bill rates also responded to ongoing and expected sales of

Treasury issues by foreign central banks.

Most of the net foreign sales

in December and early January were absorbed by the System in the course of normal seasonal reserve supplying operations.

But this in turn meant that

seasonal demand for bills from the dealer market was commensurately reduced.

-5(6)

The table on the next page shows (in percentage annual rates

of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various recent time periods on the new revised basis.

Appendix Table III compares money supply

growth rates computed on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a last-month-of-quarter basis.

This blue book does not contain the usual

charts 1-3 on the monetary aggregates because of time pressure in converting to the new revised money supply series.

3 years ending Dec. 1972 Dec. '72 over Dec. '69

Past 12 Months Dec. '73 over Dec. '72

Past 6 Months Dec. '73 over June '73

Past 3 Months Dec. '73 over Sep, '73

Past Month Dec. '73 over Nov. '73

Total reserves

7.8

7.7

8.5

6.1

10.3

Nonborrowed reserves

8.3

7.2

12.6

13.3

14.1

Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits

8.5

9.3

7.8

1.4

9.4

7.5

5.9

3.9

8.0

8.5

M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's)

11.3

8.6

7.8

10.2

8.7

M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions)

12.8

8.6

6.5

9.1

9.6

Total member banks deposits (bank credit proxy adj.)

10.7

7.0

3.5

6.2

Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/

12.6

8.0

4.4

1.5

1.6

0.1

Concepts of

Money

Ml (currency plus demand deposits)

Bank Credit

Short-term market paper (Monthly avg. change in billions) Large CD's

Nonbank commercial paper 0.1 Other than interbank and U.S. 1/ 2/

Based on month-end figures.

0.3 Government.

0.8

-1.3 1.2

0.8 -0.4

Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches.

NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-ofmonth figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments for growth rates in

Three alternative sets of specifications

(7)

the aggregates and money market conditions are summarized below for Committee consideration.

(More detailed figures are shown in the table on p. 7a). Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Targets (1st & 2nd qtrs. combined) M1

6-3/4

8-1/2

Credit Proxy

9-1/2

8-1/2

RPD

6--8

5-1/2--7-1/2

4-3/4--6-3/4

4--6

3-1/2--5-1/2

3--55

5-1/4

Associated ranges for January-February

7-1/2--9-1/2

M2 Federal funds rate range (inter-meeting period) (8)

8-3/4--9-3/4

Alternative C encompasses

9-1/4--10-1/4

9-3/4--10-3/4 10-3/4

the 5-1/4 per cent growth rate

for M1 between December and June adopted by the Committee at its meeting.

6--88

7--9

last

(This and other alternative growth rates are shown in the chart

on the following page in relation to the rate of increase for M1 over the past year).

The money market specifications

for alternative C indicate

that continuation of the path for the aggregates adopted at the last meeting would likely be associated with some upward movement in

the

Federal funds rate from the prevailing level of around 9-3/4 per cent. This now seems probable because we expect somewhat greater demand for money in the first

half of 1974 than we did at the time of the last

MONEY SUPPLY AND LONGER RUN TARGET PATH

RATIO SCALE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

28Q

GROWTH 5/%%

- 270 REVISED M1

. . -** RATE OF GROWTH DEC. '72 TO DEC. '73 5.9%

II,

A 1973

-1260

-1

M 1974

-7aAlternative Longer-Run Targets for Key Monetary Aggregates Ml Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt.

Alt. A

M3 Alt. B

Alt. C

1973

Dec.

270.7

570.8

893.4

1974

Jan. Feb. Mar.

271.0 272.9 274.6

271.0 272.7 274.2

271.0 272.6 273.9

574.1 578.9 583.9

574.1 578.3 582.6

574.0 577.6 581.0

899.1 906.1 913.2

899.1 905.3 911.5

898.9 904.5 909.6

June

280.0

279.1

277.9

599.3

595.6

590.8

935.0

930.5

925.0

Quarters: 1974

Rates of Growth

1st Q. 2nd Q.

Months: Jan. Feb.

1.3

8,4

7.5

Adjusted Credit Alt. A Alt. B 1973 1974

4.7 5.8

9.2 10.5

8.3 8.9

7.1 6.7

1.3 7.1

6.9 10.0

6.9 8.8

6.7 7.5

Proxy Alt. C

Total Reserves Alt. A Alt. B Alt.

7.3 6.8

7.7 9.3

7.7 8.3

Alt. A

RPD Alt. B

7.4 7.5

Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.

449.8 454.0 455.6 457.6

449.8 454.0 455.2 456.6

449.8 454.0 454.6 455.6

35,097 35,883 35,473 34,998

35,097 35,888 35,437 34,924

35,097 35,882 35,401 34,855

32,912 32,847 32,992 33,085

32,912 32,851 32,956 33,012

32,912

June

471.4

468.8

465.8

35,977

35,797

35,598

33,968

33,793

33,600

6.0

Quarters: 1974 1st Q.

2nd Q. Months: Jan. Feb.

12.1

10.7

5.2 9.0

2.3 11.2

1.5 10.0

11.2 4.2

11.2 3.2

11.2 1.6

37.1 -13.7

37.3 -15.1

6.9

0.7 8.5 37.1 -16.1

5.8 10.7 8.6 5.3

32,845 32,920 32,943

4.0 8.0 8.9 3.8

8.6 2.7

-8FOMC meeting,

reflecting the larger increase in prices and in nominal

GNP now projected. (9)

The specifications for alternative B include a 6 per

cent annual rate for M1 over the first half of 1974.

The staff believes change in the funds

that such a growth rate would probably entail little rate from current levels.

Thus, the range for the funds rate in that

alternative centers on 9-3/4 per cent.

Alternative A includes moderately

higher growth rates for the monetary aggregates and a consequent easing in money market conditions. (10)

No matter which of these alternatives might be chosen,

the rates of growth for M1 are expected to be higher in the second quarter than in the first quarter of 1974, and to be quite moderate for the two month January-February period.

For example,

under alternative B,

annual rate of M1 growth over the first quarter is

the

indicated to be around

5-1/4 per cent--and in a 3-1/2 to 5-1/2 per cent range for January-February-but to rise to 7 per cent in the second quarter.

The greater growth in

the second quarter reflects the temporary impact of large tax refunds-estimated at $2-$3 billion above last year--and initial consumer adjustments to higher social security benefit payments.

We would expect M1 growth in

the third quarter, assuming little change in interest rates from those prevailing, to be on the order of one percentage point lower than in the second quarter as these temporary factors disappear. (11)

The outlook for interest rates in general is uncertain

partly because market attitudes are so sensitive to the course of military and oil developments in the Middle East and their implications for domestic inflation, international capital flows, Government securities.

Also,

and foreign official sales of U.S.

of course, market participants are quite

-9sensitive at this time to monetary policy.

In long-term markets, the

recent enlarged flow of bond offerings has moved relatively well, but a continued heavy calendar is likely to lead to a further updrift in longterm yields--assuming no significant change in the Federal funds rate, and no dramatic change in the outlook for oil prices and supplies.

In the

short-term sector, rates could also back up somewhat further, given the prevailing Federal funds rate, as dealer financing costs remain high and market participants come to believe that further monetary ease is not in prospect.

However, Federal Government financing requirements appear light

enough over the next few weeks to moderate upward rate pressures.

Housing

agencies will be repaying debt, and the Treasury has little or no net cash need between now and late March or early April (assuming no sizable further liquidation of Treasury specials by foreign central banks). (12)

Given the sensitivity of markets, a rise in the funds rate

from current levels would probably lead to an increase of interest rates generally--adjustments that could be fairly large if the funds rate increase were sizable, say on the order of 1/4--1/2 percentage points, and gave signs of persisting.

A drop in the funds rate from prevailing

levels, on the other hand, would be accompanied by declines in market interest rates, particularly short-term rates. ensuing market rally is unclear.

The likely strength of any

Since the market over-anticipated the

extent and speed of the easing in policy late last year, reactions to further declines in the funds rate might be on the cautious side.

-10(13)

The Treasury will be announcing mid-February refunding

terms on January 30. held.

About $4-1/2 billion of maturing debt is publicly

Under current market circumstances, it does not appear likely

that the Treasury would seek to pre-refund additional issues or to offer longer-term securities in volume.

Thus, the refunding may be a

relatively uncomplicated operation, although somewhat larger in size than the mid-November refunding. (14)

Net inflows of consumer-type time and savings deposits

are expected to continue at about the November-December pace at banks and thrift institutions under alternative B, which does not contemplate significant changes in market rates. likely to evolve under alternative A.

Somewhat greater growth would be There is risk of an appreciable

reduction in savings flows under alternative C if the money market does in fact tighten as much as shown in paragraph (7). (15)

The various alternatives include more rapid expansion

in bank credit in the winter and spring of 1974 than occurred in the fourth quarter of last year, when growth was quite slow.

Since mid-

December, banks have once again begun to increase offerings of CD's. We have assumed a modest continuing expansion in CD's, in contrast to the sharp decline that occurred over the fourth quarter--a decline that was equivalent to a reduction in bank credit growth by about 4 percentage points (at an annual rate).

However, demands for bank credit

may be relatively modest in the first quarter, given recent emphasis on capital market financing by businesses, slower consumer credit growth, and less mortgage credit demand.

Thus, banks may be reluctant to issue CD's in

-11any significant volume at current relatively high interest rates.

have not assumed availability of relatively low cost funds to banks through oil revenues in the Euro-dollar market; the means and channels by which oil revenues will be recycled through world money and capital markets are still unclear.

If banks were to obtain more funds in the

Euro-dollar market, however, they would mainly substitute for domestic CD sales rather than add to the over-all bank credit expansion that would otherwise occur.

-12-

Proposed directive language Presented below are three alternative formulations

(16)

for the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section.

For all three alternatives, it

proposed to

add a reference to Treasury financing because of the regular February refinancing to be announced later this month.

As will be noted, the

three alternatives refer to growth rates in the aggregates "over the past 12 months."

For the 12 months through December 1973, these are as

follows in terms of the revised series:

M1, 5.9 per cent; M2, 8.6 per

cent; and the bank credit proxy, 10.7 per cent. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF internationl and domestic financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve in] easing some [DEL:

bank reserve and money market conditions

provided [DEL:

that the] CONSISTENT WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER GROWTH IN monetary aggregates [DEL: excessively] growing be to appear not do

AHEAD THAN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS.

OVER THE MONTHS

-13Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF international and domestic financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve provided bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL:

in] easing some [DEL:

not do CONSISTENT WITH GROWTH IN monetary aggregates [DEL:

the] that

OVER THE MONTHS AHEAD AT ABOUT

excessively] growing be to appear

THE RATES THAT PREVAILED OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS.

Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF international and domestic financial market developments,

the Committee seeks to achieve

provided bank reserve and money market condition [DEL:

in] easing some [DEL:

CONSISTENT WITH SOMEWHAT SLOWER GROWTH IN monetary aggregates

the] that

OVER THE MONTHS AHEAD

excessively] growing be to appear not do [DEL:

THAN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS.

(17)

In the event that the Committee again wishes to couch

the operational paragraph of the directive in

terms of money market

conditions, the specifications of alternative A might be associated with the language adopted at the December meeting (".

. .the Committee

seeks to achieve some easing in bank reserve and money market conditions, provided that the monetary aggregates do not appear to be growing excessively."

The specifications of alternative B might be associated

with language indicating that ".

. . the Committee seeks to maintain

about the prevailing money market conditions, provided that the monetary aggregates appear to be growing at rates within the specified ranges of tolerance."

CHART 1

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES IONEY MARKET CONDITIONS WEEKLY AVERAGES

PER CENT 411

FEDFRAL FUNDS RATE I

1972

1973

TARLE 1

NeV RtVISED SERIES

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL --------------------,

RANK RESERVES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) -------------

**---_*---

---------------------------------------

RESERVFS AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE NON@ANK DEPOSIT%

II AGREGATF RESFRVFS II ------------------------------------------II ...---------------------

-*----------------------------11 II I SEAS AOJ I NON SEAS AOJ I

PFRIOD

TOTAL RESFRVES

-------------------------

(1)

(2)

32.394 32.845 32.714 32.91P

I I

32179 32.739 32.752 33,166

I I

(32.851)

I ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE

---------------------

OUARTERLY

1973--1T QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RDO TR. 4TH QTR

7.8 17.5 14.2 1.4

I I

I 1

1974--1ST OTR.

( 4.9) I I

MONTHLY 1973--SPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

I I I I

11.3 1.0 -6.3 9.4

1974--JAN.

I I

II II

II I I It

(

0.1)

I --

it II II II

II II (33.919) 1f II (I II I it I If I II II II II II II II I I

I WEEKLY

S A.8)

DEC.-JAN. LFVELS-SMILLIONS

NO NRnRROWED RESERVES

(3)

--------------

-------

(6)

(7)

(8)

19.930 19«998 19.97f20,227

B.199 8,310 8,430 8*460

4,038 4,312 4,069 3,918

1.779 2.098 2,142 2,185

(20.313)

S8.524)

( 3,806)

( 3,037)

(4)

1974

REQUIRED RESERVES ******************-******-----SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ----------------------------------- m ------ *---I CD'S AND GOV*T AND OTHER PRIVATE NON DEP INTER8ANK TIME DEP DEMANn I am

MONTHLY LEVELS-IMILIIONSI ------------------------ I I 1973--SEPT OCT. NOV. DEC. I 1974--JAN.

JANUARY 18.

(5)

34.173 34.942 34,857 35,097

32.321 33,4A6 33.463 33,799

(35.848)

(34,879)

6.4 6.9 10.6 6.1 (

-3.6 7.0 11.3 13.3

S 3.9)

1.5)

9.4 12.1

-4.3 10.3

(

21.9 26.7 -1.6 14.1 Irl .

I I

37.3)

(

49.0)

(

?3.9)

(

31.

)

7.4 9.7 15.7 12.7

O.6 3.P 1.4 5.8 -1.9)

(

2A.4 16.2 17.3 4.3

-6.8 3.4 -1.1 15.1 (

( 9.1)

5.1) S 10.1)

8.5)

(

6.7)

---- **---------

I 1973--NOV.

7 14 21 28

32.657 32.694 32.904 32.508

32.647 32.745 32.977 32,552

I I

DEC.

5 12 19 26

I 1 I

33,041 32.561 32,869 33.209

33.053 32.534 33,127 33,637

I 1

1974--JAN.

9 16

I I I

32.918 32,657 33,088

I I

33.560 33.392 34.77 1

-,r--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

II 1I 11 II II I II II II

(I II II II II 1I

34,b55 34.866 35,192 34,641

33,485 33,345 33,620 33,354

35,108 34,623 35,191 35 330

33,633 33,321 33.702 34,922

35,291 35,646 36*468

34.081 34.870 35,479

8.386 8,432 8,441 89462

4.188

1.998

49158

2.172

19,817 q1,941 20,064 20,011

3.948

2,132

20,221 2C ,171 20,151 20,264

8,422 8,450 8,472 8,441

3,952 3*966 3*930 4,028

2*068 2.062 2.322 2*121

20,361 20,42 20,41?

8,523 8,506 8,528

3.649 3*731 3,821

2.373 2,990 3,380

I I

29288

NOTE: DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF DECEMBER 18, 1973 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD RANGE OF 8.25 TO 11 PERCENT FOR THE DEC-JAN PERIOD.

kw-

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL *......... ..------.-

TABLE 2

NEWLY REVISED -------------

JANUARY 18, 1974

MONETARY AGGREGATES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) m

.mmmw.memm.......m

mmwm---

mmeme-m----------------

mmmmmemmm

memm------mmem---mm

TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS U.S. I I ADJUSTED 1I I MONEY SUPPLY I OTHER I II GOVT. I BROAD I CREDIT I NAOW I CO S I TOTAL I THAN CD S I PROXY II DEPOSITS I (Ml) I (M2) PERIOD mmmme ee wmeeemmemmemee emeemmemmm emmmemememmmmmmeememmmee ---------------------------------------------------------------------------e emme meeeeeeeeeemmeeeeeeee (7) (6) (5) (A4 I (3) II (2) 9 I (1) II I I I MONTHLY LEVELS-SRILLIONSI I I I ---- --II I I-----I I I I 291.2 I 66.7 556.6 1 445.9 11 5.0 357,9 1973--SEPT. I 265.4 I I 295.1 63.8 11 6.0 358.9 561.6 446.5 I 266. I OCT. NOV. I 268. I 566.7 447.5 11 5.0 I 359.9 1 297.8 6200 DEC. 270.7 I 570.8 449.8 II 5.0 363.0 300.2 I 62.8

I 1974--JAN.

I (271.n)

I (574.1)

1I (454.0)

II PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH -------------------QUARTERLY OTR. QTR9. OTR. QTR.

I I I

I I

I 6.9 11.1 5.2

1 I

110.2

I 5.?)

1974--JAN.

I I I I I

( 1.3)

( 8.3)

( 4.0

I I I

5 12 19 26

I (303.1)

268.1 269.1 269.4 269.0

269.1 270.7 270.9 270.9

(8) I I

I (64.9)

I I

7.3 6.9 7.1 7.4

1 I

I I

II II

( 6.0)

I 22.7 17. 14.0 5.7

7.2)

9.9 10.4 10.4 12.4

I (14.3)

(10.9)

5.7 1.6 2.7 6.2

II 11 II I

(11.2)

11 If I

I 1

II I If I (I 11 11

I I 1

3.7 10.8 10.9 8 .7 ( 6.9)

I I

WEEKLY LEVELS-SRILLIONS I ---------------------I I NOV. 7 14 1 21 28 DEC.

I -3.6 5.0 10.4 8.5

DEC.-JAN.

14.6 12.6 10.5 3.5

I MONTHLY -----1973--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

(368.0)

emmm

I 3.0 11. -0.2 8.0

I 1974--1ST OTR.

I I

I ( 6.2)

I 1973--1ST 2ND 3RO 4TH

em--

I NONDEPOSIT I SOURCES OF FUNDS I

I 8.7)

7.8)

565.7 567.2 5 66.8 567.2 568.2 569.7 571.8 571.6

I I I 1 I I

447.7 647.1 447T6 447.6 4476 447.9 449.3 452.4

1 I f

9.8 3.4 3.3 10.3

I I

(16.5)

I I

4.8 4.1 4 .5 5.9

I 1

360.1 360.0 359.3 3601 360. 361.9 363.1 363.7

(11.61 (10.7)

(13.51

6.5 5.8 5.7 4.9

10.4 16.1 11.0 97

297.6 298.1 297.4 298.2 299.1 296.9 300.9 300.7

1 I

I 62.5 61.9 61.9 61.9

I61.7 1 I 1

63.0 62.2 63.0

6.7 6.7 7.4 7.6 I 1 I 1

?.6 7*6 7.3

I 5.9 I 366.0 1 301.7 I 64.3 T70 7.1 1 366.8 1 30260 1 64.8 I 1 6.8 302.9 64*8 1 7*3 11 6.6 367.6 1 I I If I I I ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------P - PRELIMINARY NOTEl DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJecTIONS. PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATES 1974--JAN.

2 1 9 P 1 16 PE I

270.1 269.3 270.2

-......---..---...-.-............---.-.....---

1 1 I

571.8 571.3 573.0

452.0 453.1 453.6

.-..--....--

......--.-..---.-----.-------- .

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

TABLE 2-A

CURRENTLY PUBLISHED DATA --------------------.---

JANUARY 18, 1974

MONETARY AGGREGATES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --------,, -------U.S. I ADJUSTED II MONEY SUPPLY 1 GOVT. CREDIT II I BROAD I I NARROW (M?) I PROXY II DEPOSITS I (MI) I PERIOD ------------------------------------------------------(2) (1) I (3) II (A) I I II MONTHLY LEVELS-SBILLIONSI II ----------------------- I I II 445.9 II 552.3 5.1 1973--SEPT. I 263.4 446.5 6.6 557.1 II 264.4 OCT. 446.6 562.4 1 5.9 I 266.4 NOV. 566.8 449.8 5.5 II DEC. I 268.7 II PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH I II -----------------I I II QUARTERLY I I II --------I I 5.7 15.0 I 1.7 1973--1ST QT. 12.2 II 9.5 10.3 2ND QTR. 10.5 II I 3RD QTR. 0.3 5.1 3.5 4TH OTR. 8.0 I 10.5 I II MONTHLY II II 3.9 5.4 -2.1 II 1973--SEPT. 10.4 1.6 II 4.h OCT. 11.4 0.3 I NOV. 10.0 8.6 11 9.4 I I 9. DEC. I I II WEEKLY LEVFLS-SBILLIONS I II ----------------------- I I II II 561.5 446.8 II NOV. 7 266.4 6.4 446.4 II 562.9 6.5 14 267.0 562.8 446.6 11 5.S 267.5 21 446.5 II 561.5 5.5 I 65.4 I 2 II I I 5.7 446.8 563.3 II DEC. 5 1 266.6 564.3 4.8 447.0 1 267.9 12 567.4 448.2 II 4.4 19 I 268.8 6.1 451.7 567.8 II 269.2 26 II I I 453.9 7.5 569.0 11 269.4 2 1974--JAN. 453.8 7.8 567.7 I II 267.6 1 9 P I I II I --------------------

NOTEI DATA SHOWN

IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS I I OTHER I I THAN CD S I CO S I TOTAL .... (5) (6) <7) I

355.6 356.1 356.8 360.6

23.) 16.0 13.4 5.6

9.5 9.8 12.7

2.4 12.8

356.8 356.7 356.1 357.2

295.1 295.9 295.3 296.1

61.7 60.8 61.1

357.8 359.2 360.7 361.5

296.7 296.4 298.7 298.6

61.1

363.5 364.4

299.5 300.1

PROJECTIONS.

-=-

60.

62.8 62.0 62.9 64.0 64.3

I NONDEPOSIT I SOURCES OF I FUNDS

9.6 16.2 12.3 9.3

6.8 1.7

66.8 63.4 61.1 62.5

288.9 292.8 295.8 298.1

- PRELIMINARY P PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATED

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) JANUARY 18, 1974 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATTONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted)

Bills _ & Accept. (1)

Open Market Operations/ RP's Agency Coupon Net 3/ Issues Issues (4) (3) (2)

_1 Total (5)

Daily Average Reserve Effect 2/ Other 4/ A Member Open Market Factors Bank Borrowing Operations (8) (7) (6)

Target in reserve categories available res. 5/ available req. res. against reserves 5 (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) U.S.G. and interb. (11) (10) (9)

lfonthly 1973 -- .une July Aug. Sept Oct Nov Der 1974 --

649 1,073 -753 -494 1,972 -1,008 1.867

228 27 ---533 226

209 168 -20 -30 172 71 178

-1,148 -143 531 295 -902 -831

1.085 2,416 -915 7 2,440 -1,307 1,386

-1,450 2,090 -818 -583 1,986 394 1,339

1 263 93 -282 -395 -68 -101

1,084 -850 978 1,150 -678 -646 -846

-470 311 -304 -133 373 -167 -68

105 1,185 557 418 540 -153 460

895

Jan.

Feb. Weekly 1973 --

Nov.

Dec

1974 -- Jan.

175 795 680 475 1,005 860 475

7 14

-418 -303

21 28

3 13

-2,811 2,571

-3,229 2,268

-326 -848

-285 351

288 738

-78 122

-245 119

50 20

907 -1,522

1,458 -1,454

2,562 -827

51 -284

-2,389 449

12 -220

212 -442

499 34

-304

593

288

710

188

-424

412

12 19 26

-33 1,002 420

73 50

-84 73 --

-1,393 2,752 -5,874

-1,510 3,900 -5,404

-824 868 6 13p

-172 186 -447

538 -370 152

-31 106 -238

-427 -578 556

2 9

659 205

205 -

121 -2

5,124 -3,819

6,110 -3,616

716p -36p

168 -434

-885 1,025

293 669

-294o -114p

-201

2,187

1,986

213

1,394

307

1,145p

-155p

23 30 T- Represents change in System s portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. 2/ Represents change In daily average level from preceding period. T/ Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. 4/ Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. 5/ Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for December and January reflects the target adopted at the December 18, 1973 FOMC meeting. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) JANUARY

18, 1974

TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS Millions of dollars U 8 Govt. Security Dealer Positions

Per Iorl

Bills

Coupon Issues B ill.

Corporate Bonds

Positions

Member Bank Reserves

Dealer Positions Municipal Bonds

Excess** Reserves

Borrowing at FRB** _ Total Seasonal

Basic Reserve Deficit 8 New York 38 5thera

(1)

(2)

1977 -- High

4,291 1,916

1,585 -93

1.223 12

-5,635 -1,638

-5,770 -1,910

1913 --

Low

3,796 897

1,299 -301

2,561 688

-5,243 -1,831

-10,661 -4,048

1972 --

Dec.

3,510

953

291

1,049

-4,977

-4,958

1073 --

Tan. r1h.

407

2,132 7,400

720 562 -50

177 123 125

289 207 177

1,161 1,594 1,825

-4,550 -4,187 -4,273

-5,469 -5,436 -5,847

Apr.

2,457 1,894 7,281

106 421 562

60 151 120

255 161 234

1,688 1,843 1,851

-3,793 -3,019 -3,507

-6,577 -5,872 -6,443

) .25 1,690 7,745

265 39 395

139 70 80

285 177 216

1,953 2,165 1,801

155 163 148

-2,460 -2.689 -3.173

-6,106 -4,940 -5,355

2,565 2,804 *31,41

484 793 *973

276 148 276

227 239 299p

1,476 1,393 1,299p

126 84 41 p

-3,814 -4,469 -4,682

-6,090 -8,186 -9,793

lligh

MaV .Tuno JuTly Aug. 0

pIt .

Oct. Nov. 1) r . 1073 --

1974 --

(7)

(8)

3 30 75

(9)

Nov.

7 14 21 28

2,973 7,975 2,727 2,357

1,299 859 470 644

154 167 104 168

265 163 384 85

1,170 1,521 1,572 1,287

93 80 85 84

-5,168 -5,056 -4,157 -3.756

-6,867 -8,572 -8,757 -8,199

Dec.

5 12 19 76

3,090 3.737 3,796 *3,312

746 910 1,144 *1,090

275 225 327 277

446 -28 31 6 p 476p

1,475 1,303 1,489 p 1,038p

57 45

-3.6 ~" -5,017 -4,757

-8,594 -10,651 -10,661 -9,281

2 9 16 23 30

*2,890 *3,079 *3,117

*858 *611 *533

238 213 2 1 5p

386

1,210p

-4,418 -5,220p - 6 ,079p

-10, 79 7 p -11,314p

.Tan.

p -2p 321p

776 p 989p

-4,881

3 p p

19 20p

- 9,541

Y1..- overnment Security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, wh-ch exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions are debt Issues is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds The basic reserve deficit still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. Weekly data are daily averages for statem(nt weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. pIreChales. * **

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Beginning with Tanuary 1973,

monthly sverprirs for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) JANUARY 18, 1974

TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES Per Cent

Treasury Bills Federal Funds (M)

90-Day (2)

1-Year (3)

1972 -- High T.Lw

5.38 3.18

5 13 3.03

5.52 3.60

193) -- High .Low

10.84 5.61

8.95 5.15

1917 -- Dec.

5.33

1q73 -- Jan. reh. Mar Apr. May Timn8.49

New 60-89 Day

Paper

90-119 Day

Issue (7)

U.S. Government

Utility

(10-yr Constant

Recently

Municipal

Offered (8)

Bond Buyer (9)

Maturi ty) (10)

FNMA

Auction yields

(

(.)

(6)

5.50 3.75

5.38 3.13

5.50 3 50

7.60 6.99

7 46 7.12

5.54 4.96

6.58 5.87

7.72 7.54

8.43 5.42

10.50 5.63

10.50 5.38

10.75 5 50

8.52 7.29

8.30 7.26

5.59 4.99

7.54 6.42

9.37 7.69

5.07

5.28

5.40

5 19

5.38

7.15

7.18

5.05

6.36

7 68

5.94 6.58 7.09

5.41 5.60 6.09

5.58 5.93 6.53

5.76 6.17 6.76

5.63 6.16 6.78

5.75 6.28 6.75

7.38 7.40 7.49

7.35 7 41 7.51

5.05 5.13 5.29

6 46 6.64 6.71

7.69 7.72 7.78

7.12 7.84

6.26 6.36 7.19

6.51 6.63 7.05

7.13 7.26 8.00

7.04 7.44 7.98

6.75 7.41 8.13

7.48 7.51 7.64

7.48 7.50 7.64

5.15 5.15 5.18

6.67 6.85 6 90

7.89 7.98 8.07

(4)

July

10.40

8.01

7.97

9.26

9.09

9.19

8.01

7.97

5.40

7.13

8 46

Aug.

10.50

8.67

8.32

10.26

10.25

10.40

8.36

8.22

5.48

7.40

8 83

Sept.

10.78

8.29

8.07

10.31

10.50

7.88

7.99

5.10

7 09

9.32

(Ot Nov. De-e

10.01 10.03 .95

7.22 7.83 7.45

7.17 7.40 7.01

9 14 9.11 9.28

9.15 9.06 9.44

9.08 8,91 9.13

7.90 7.89 8.03

7.94 7.94 8.03

5.05 5.18 5.12

6.79 6.73 6 74

9.01 8.84 8.78

9.71 10.03 10.23 1 10.09

7.84 8,34 7.64 7.67

7.30 7.54 7.47 7.32

8.78 9.03 9.28 9.25

8.75 9.00 9.25 9.25

8.50 8.88 9.13 9.13

8.00 7.98 7.86 7.85

8.02 7.99 7,85 7.87

5.19 5.27 5.13 5.15

6.76 6.76 6.71 6.70

113 -- Nov

7 14 21

2 Dec.

1474 --

CD's New Issue-NYC

Commercial Period

Long-Term

Short-Term 90-119 Day

Jan.

5 12 19 26

10.17 10.04 10.18 9.52

7.36 7.55 7.44 7.40

7.31 7.27 6.77 6.79

9.33 9.48 9.18 9.16

9.50 9.50 9.38 9.38

9.25 9.13 9.13 9.00

8.06 7.97 7.98 --

7.98 7.97 8.05 8.10

5.15 5.06 5.11 5.16

6.72 6.69 6.71 6 87

9.87

7.48

6.88

9.16

9.38

9.00

8.14

5.18

6 94

9 t6 23 30

9.76 9.77

7.57 7.89

7.01 7.09

8.98 8.88

9.13 9.13

8.88 8.88

8.17r 8.27p

8.25 8.2 5p

5.22 5.24

6.98 6 9 . 9p

8.87 8.81

8.78

8.71

Noter : Weklty data for columns I to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For Columns 7, 8 and 10 Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week ove: which data are averaged. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the hire statement week average yield in the bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Governent underwritten mortgages.

CONFIDENTIAL

CURRENTLY PUBLISHED DATA RESERVE ony Stock

Reserves

period

Total

Nnborrowe

posit

Appendix Table I AND MONETARY VARIABLES k crl

arrea

Available to Support Pvt.

January 18,

M 3

Adjusted Credit Proxy

ther

Total ' Loans and I

(FR) 1974

I local

stment..

Time Other than

Thrift Institution

C I

Depot *

U.S. Gov't

Noudepoait ' 1

Cp \"/

)

Funds n-

D (

(Dolla; Change in Billions)

(Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth) Annually 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Semi-Annually: lst Half 1971 2nd Half 1971 1st Half 1972 2nd Half 1972

+7.5 -1.1 +6.1 +7.2 +10.6 +7.6

+5.3 -2,8 +9.6 +8.1 +7.1 +6.4

+8.1 -1.7 +8.6 +7.2 +9.7 +9.0

+9.3 +2.6 +8.4 +11.4 +10.8 +7.9

+8.3 +2.9 +8.0 +13.5 +13.0 +8.2

+9.5 +0.4 +8.2 +9.4 +11.6 +10.7

+10.9 +2.9 +8.1 +11.2 +14.6 +12.6

+11.5 -4.8 +17.9 +18.2 +15.5 +15.3

+11.2 +1.4 +11.1 +16.7 +13.3 +10.6

+6.3 +3.6 +7.1 +17.4 +17.0 +&.7

+9.7 +4.4 +11.7 +9.0

+9.6 +6.3 +12.1 +2.0

+10.7 +3.4 +8.6 +10.4

+14.9 +7.4 +10.8 +10.3

+16.4 +9.8 +13.0 +12.1

+10.1 +8.4 +11.4 +11.1

+12.1 +9.7 +13.6 +14.7

+21.6 +13.4 +15.4 +14.5

+20.0 +12.1 +13.7 +12.1

+19.3 +14.3 +17.3 +15.4

+13.8 +7.0

+16.6 +8.0

+20.0 +9.6

+9.2 +11.4

+11.6 +5.3

+8.5 +10.6

+9.8 +16.6

+8.0 +15.9

+2.9 -12.4 +14.4 +7.7 +10.1 +19 3 +4.3 +3.4 +4.4 +5.7

+2.6 +13.0 -8.4 -7.6 +0.4 +3.0

-0.6 +0.5 +1.1 -0.3 +0.4 -1.1

-7.1 -0.4 -0.3 +0.6

-1.4 +1.1

+18.9 +0.5

+1.2 +1.7

-1.4 +0.3

+14.5 +13.5

+1.7 +1.8

-0.4

+1.1

+0.8 +3.7 +2.4 +3.3

-0.3 -+0.4 +0.3

-0.4 +0.5 -1.1 +1.4

+0.4

let Half 2nd Half Quarter. : 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr.

1973 1973

+7.4 +7.7

+4.9 +7.8

+11.4 +6.2

+7.7 +7.9

+9.1 +7.0

1971 1971

+6.5 +2.3

+6.6 +6.0

+3.2 +3.6

+6.0 +8.7

+8.9 +10.5

Qtr. Itr. Qtr. Qtr.

1972 1972 1972 1972

+10.4 +12.6 +3.6 +14.2

+10.7 +13.1 -0.8 +4.8

+10.4 +6.6 +9,9 +10.6

+12.7 +8.5 +10.3 +10.2

+14.9 +10.7 +12.4 +11.5

+11.0 +11.5 +9.8 +12.1

+15.7 +11.1 +11J, +15.8

+15.4 +14.8 +14.0 +14.4

+16.1 +10.8 +12,3 +11.6

+19.1 +14.7 +16.2 +13.9

+8.8 +5.8 +10.3 +4.7 +21.8 -5.2 +14.5 +22.1 +8.8 +6.4 +5.2 +7.6 -1.9 +18.2 +11.4 +12.5

-7.1 +17.3 +12.4 +3.0 +26.7 -5.7 +11.0 +21.7 +9.4 +8.0 +2.9 +0.7 -6.1 +15.5 +9.8 -10.9

+10.5 +12.0 +13.6 -1.2 +11.0 +6.5 +13.4 +6.8 +3.9 +9.0 +6.9 +9.7 +12.9 +3.2 +20.8 +7.7

+5.7 +9.5 +5.1 +10.5 +10.4 +15.1 +12.4 +7.9 +8.3 +9.2 +12.5 +9.3 +8.7 +10.1 +7.9 +12.2

+8.6 +9.4 +4.4 +9.4 +13.2 +16.8 +14.2 +10.7 +10.1 +11.1 +13.9 +11.6 +11.2 +12.0 +9.8 +12.4

+15.0 +12.2 +10.5 +3.5 +9.2 +7.2 +16.2 +12.2 +15.6 +6.6 +10.0 +9.6 +9.5 +11.9 +10.5 +13.4

+19.9 +12.7 +11.4 +4.4 +15.3 +13.9 +17,3 +11.4 +15.2 +6.5 +9.9 +14.4 +14 2 +11.2 +21. +14.3

+23.1 +16.0 +13.4 +5.6 +17.7 +16.2 +11.6 +12.8 +18.2 +12.9 +13.6 +15.9 +12.0 +11.5 +14.2 +17.1

+9.5 +8.7 +9.8 +12.7 +19.2 +15.4 +13.2 +7.8 +13.0 +11.4 +12.3 +14.0 +10.2 +12.8 +10.4 +11.2

+13.6 +9.4 +3.1 +7.6 +18.9 +20.0 +17.4 +15 8 +13.4 +14.5 +17.0 +15.5 +15.7 +15.5 +13.2 +12.7

+11.7 +7.1 +4.7 -4.3 +0.1 +0.6 +0.1 +1.5 +1.5 +0.7 +0.8 +0.8 +0.8 +0.2 +1.2 +1.9

+0.5 +0.7 +1.6 +0.1 -0.1 -0.3 +0.1 -0.2 +0.2 -+0.1 +0.3 -0.1 +0.2 -+0.1

+9.9 -2.4

+35.8 -22,1 +13.3 +12.3 +4.4 +0.6 +26.9 -5.1 +8.7 +14.1 -72 +7.3

+31.3 -41.3 -10.5 +26.1 +1.1 +24.0 444.9 -30.3 +22.8 +19.3 - 2.0 - 8.2

+22.8 -4.7 +13.4 +9.6 +9.4 +16.6 +18.6 +8.4 +13.1 +0.9 -8 5 +4.1

+6.4 +5.9 +4.7 +8.1 +9.8 +10.4 +5.1 +6.4 +3.9 +10.4 +11.4 +9.4

+9.8 +9.0 +6.9 +8.4 +9.1 +10.4 +5.6 +4.2 +3.2 +9.1 + 9.9 + 9.1

+8.3 +16.4 +19.7 +13.1 +12.1 +11.1 +8,8 +17.0 +5.4 +1.6 +0.3 +8.6

+17.8 +23.7 +17.2 +13.1 +16.6 +8.2 +13.3 +16.7 +4.1 +6.7 +5.0 +1.5

+15.7 +21.6 +30.9 +21.0 +18.2 +8.1 +12.6 +20.4 +6.8 +1.7 +2.4 +12.8

+12.9 +5.7 +9.6 +8.7 +9.1 +8.1 +5.5 +14.0 +9.6 +16.2 +12 3 +9.3

+15.8 +14.4 +10.2 +9.4 +7.8 +10.8 +6.5

+1.2 +4.5 +6.1 +3.8 +3.1 +0.3 +2.4 +2.5 -0.2 -3.4 -2.3 +1.4

+0.1 -+0.4 +0.2 +0.3 +0.2 +0.9 +0.6 +0.1 -0.4 +0.2 +0.3

+0.6 +0.1 +0.3 -1.7 -1.2 +0.5 -1.7 +0,8 +0.9 +1.5 -0.7 -0.5

let 2nd 3rd 4th lot 2nd 3rd 4th 1972:

1973:

Qtr. 1973 Qtr. 1973 Qtr. 1973 Qtr. 1973 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. June July Aug. Sept, Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb, Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.p

-------

+6.7 +9.8

~---I

+2.7 +6 4 +7.2 +9.0

+0.3 +0.2 -1.7 +1.1 +1.1 +0.7 -1.3 -1.0 -0.7 +0.6 +1.2 +0.6 -0.4

p - Preliminary NOTE: Reserve Requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1/ Growth rates are based on estimated monthly average levels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous month reported data Data are preliminary and may be subject to minor changes. 2/ Series revised to incorporate new seasonal factors and June 30, 1973, benchmark adjustments

1970

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) January 18, 1974

Appendix Table II RESERVES AND MONETARYVARIABLES (Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars)

Available to Support Pvt. Deposits

Total

Nonborrowed

1969 1970 1971

27,959 29,121 31,209

26,699 28,727 31,060

25,339 26,975 28,907

208.8 221.3 236.0

162.7 172.2 183.4

197 -- July Aug. Sept.

33,171 33,381 33,327

33,018 33,038 32,870

30,317 30,562 30,890

247.7 248.6 250.1

Oct. Nov. Dec.

33,832 31,883 31,309

33,295 31,297 30,063

30,973 29,496 28,862

1973--Jan. Feb. Mar.

32,242 31,649 31.999

30,848 29,787 29,526

Apr. May June

32,326 32,445 32,460

July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Period

BANK CREDIT

MONEYSTOCKMEASURES

RESERVES

Total

Pvt.

ep.

Adjusted Credit Proxy

OTHER

MEASURES

Total 2/ Loans & Investments

Total Time

Time Other than GO's

Thrift Institution Deposits 1

NonDepotta Funds

ANNUALLY: Dec. Dec. Dec.

594.0 641.3 727.7

307.7 332.9 364.3

405.6 438.5 487.6

194.4 229.2 270.9

183.5 203.9 237.9

201.7 216.1 253.8

193.1 193.8 194.8

784.0 791.6 799.0

388.3 391.4 394.5

525.1 531.4 537.7

295.0 298.9 301.9

256.8 259.8 262.0

279.6 283.2 286.9

251.6 252.7 255.5

195.9 196.5 198.7

807.0 813.6 822.0

398.4 401.9 406.4

542. 552.4 559.0

304.8 308.4 312.8

264.8 267.1 269.6

290.6 293.8 296.9

29,411 29,296 29,622

255.4 256.7 256.6

198.4 199.3 198.7

828.7 834.9 839.7

409.2 414.8 421.6

567.3 578.5 586.8

316.9 322.6 330.9

272.5 273.8 276.0

300.8 304.4 307.0

30,167 30,195 30,800

29,860 30,095 30,511

258.2 260.5 263.2

199.5 201.6 203.9

845.6 852.0 859.4

426.2 430.5 434.5

593.2 601.4 605.5

336.7 341.8 344.1

278.0 280.1 282.0

309.4 311.4 314.2

33,569 33,898 34,145

32,332 31,996 32,604

31,324 31,961 32,311

264.3 263.9 263.4

204.9 204.2 203.3

863.5 866.5 868.8

437.7 443.9 445.9

612.2 620.7 622.8

347.7 353.6 355.6

283.3 286.6 288.9

315.9 315.9 316.6

34,971 34.803 34,957

33,553 33,539 33,252

32,759 32,571 32,623

264.4 266.6 268.7

204.0 205.8 207.2

875.4 882.6 899.3

446.5 446.6 449.8

626.3 628.9 629.7

356.1 356.8 360.6

292.8 295.8 298.1

318.3 320.2 322.6

392.3 425.2 473.8

Nov.

7 14 21 28

34,658 34,675 35,216 34,606

33,235 32,943 33,875 33,777

32,496 32,464 32,892 32,369

266.4 267.0 267.5 265.4

205.9 206.2 206.4 204.6

446.8 446.4 446.6 446.5

356.8 356.7 356.1 357.2

295.1 295.9 295.3 296.1

Dec.

5 12 19 26

35,009 34,514 35,217 35,196

33,218 31,941 33,153 34,188

32,802 32,311 32,765 32,873

266.6 267.9 268.8 269.2

205.9 206.4 207.3 207.1

446.8 447.0 448.2 451.7

357.8 359.2 360.7 361.5

296.7 296.4 298.7 298.6

34,906 35,502

33,474 34,497

32,415 32,459

269.4 267.6

207.5 205.5

453.9 453.8

363.5 364.4

299.5 300.1

Jan.

2 p 9p

p - Pieliminary NOTE: Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning OLtober 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, bank-related commercial paper and Eurodollar borrowings of U.S. banks. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks. Monthly data are daily averages except for nonbank commercial paper figures which aif or last day of month. Weekly datai are not available for M3, total loans and investments and thrift institution deposits. EbtimIoted monthly average levels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous month reported data. 1/ Data are preliminary and may be subject to minor changes. 2/ Series revised to incorporate new season.alfactorb and June 30, 1973, benchmark adjustments.

U.S. Gov't Demand

Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply--New Revised Series (Per cent change at an annual rate)

1972

1973

9.0

II III

5.3

12.3

11.0

14.6

13.2

6.2

8.2

8.9

10.9

12.0

8.7

8.2

10.8

12.8

12.6

9.9

8.4

10.6

10.2

11.8

3.8

7.1

6.9

8.9

9.4

10.8

11.1

8.6

10.4

9.1

7.9

4.5

7.2

8.6

9.3

7.4

11.5

7.3

III

-0.2

5.5

8.0

4.1

5.2 10.2

9.8

___ 5

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters.

Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels three months of the quarters.

in all

Appendix Table IV Comparison of Published, Preliminary Revised and New Revised M 1 and M 2 Growth Rates Ml

M2 Preliminary

New

Revised

Preliminary

New

Published

Revised

Published

6.6 8.3 5.2

6.3 8.7 6.3

6.3 8.7 5.9

11.4 10.8 7.9

11.2 11.1 8.9

11.2 11.1 8.6

Annual: 1971 1972 1973 Half year: 1971

1st Half 2nd Half

10.1 3.0

9.9 2.6

14.9 7.4

14.8 7.1

1972

1st Half 2nd Half

7.7 8.5

7.7 9.4

10.8 10.3

10.7 11.0

10.7 10.9

1973

1st Half 2nd Half

6.0 4.2

7.7 4.7

7.7 3.9

7.7 7.9

9.0 8.5

9.1 7.8

Quarterly: 1972

I II III IV

9.2 6.1 8.2 8.6

9.0 6.2 8.7 9.9

12.7 8.5 10.3 10.2

12.3 8.9 10.8 10.6

1973

I II III IV

1.7 10.3 0.3 8.0

3.4 11.8 0.8 9.2

3.8 11.5 -0.2 8.0

5.7 9.5 5.1 10.5

6.5 11.3 6.2 10.6

6.9 11.1 5.2 10.2

January

-0.5

4.7

6.4

9.1

9.4

February March

6.1 -0.5

6.5 -0.9

7.0 -0.5

5.9 4.7

6.3 4.1

6.8 4.5

April Nay June July August September October November December

7.5 10.7 12.4 5.0 -1.8 -2.3 4.6 10.0 9.5

6.5 13.4 15.1 5.0 0.0 -2.7 6.3 10.6 8.5

6.0 13.9 14.2 4.1 -0.9 -3.6 5.0 10.4 8.5

8.1 9.8 10.4 5.1 6.4 3.9 10.4 11.4 9.4

8.3 12.3 13.0 6.6 7.2 4.8 11.4 11.3 9.4

8.3 11.8 12.8 5.7 6.3 3.7 10.8 10.9 8.7

Monthly: 1973

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1974, January 21). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19740122

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19740122,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1974},
  month = {Jan},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19740122},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}