bluebooks · May 20, 1974

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing).

A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Content last modified 6/05/2009.

(CONFIDENTIAL

FR)

May 17,

1974

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee

By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

May 17,

1974

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Recent developments

(1)

M 1 increased at an annual rate of 8.3 per cent in April.

Growth appears to be moderating in May, and M1 is indicated to expand at a 6.5 per cent annual rate over the April-May period, slightly below the upper end of the Committee's range of tolerance.

Growth

in M2 also appears to be slowing over April and May, to a rate slightly below the mid-point of its range of tolerance, reflecting somewhat more moderate expansion of time deposits (other than large CD's) than

projected at the time of the April Committee meeting.1 /

Deposit in-

flows at nonbank thrift institutions have slowed markedly.

Estimates

for April show no growth, seasonally adjusted, at mutual savings banks and only a 4 per cent rate of growth at S&L's; data for recent weeks suggest the possibility of an even weaker performance in May.

Growth rates for M 1 and M2 are based on revised data. Money supply figures have been revised back to October to reflect December call report information for nonmember banks and new data for foreign agencies and branches. The revision raises the annual rate of growth for M 1 from 7.5 to 8.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 1973, and from 6.7 to 7.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 1974. Levels of M 1 for December and March are raised by $1 and $1.3 billion, respectively. The old and revised series are compared in appendix table V.

-2Growth of Monetary Aggregates and RPD's in April-May Target Period Reserve and Monetary Aggregates (Growth at SAAR in >er cent) RPD's

6 - 11

3 -7

21.4 6.5

54 -8h

M2 Memo: Sfunds rate Federa:1 funds rate (per cent per annum) 1/

Latest Estimates

Range of Tolerance

6.8

Avg, for Statement week ending

9 - ll 9k

pril 17

10.36

Lay 15

11.46

On April 24 the Committee raised the upper limit of the Federal funds rate range from 10% per cent to 11 per cent; on May 16, the Committee agreed to change the ceiling guideline to 11% per cent. (2)

CD's and other non-deposit sources, however, expanded much

more rapidly than projected for the inter-meeting period, as bueiness loan demands remained strong.

Mainly as a result of this, estimated RPD

growth for the April-May period is far above the upper end of the Committee's range of tolerance, as indicated in the table below. Comparison of Projected Changes in RPD's by Use April-May 1974 (In millions of dollars)

Change in Total RPD's

Projections as of April 16, 1974 FOMC meeting

Current Projection.

561

1179

Change in Category of Use: Private demand deposits Time deposits other than large CD's CD's and nondeposit funds

Excess I/ Changes from March to May 1974.

25 485

987 73

-3(3)

Following the April FOMC meeting, incoming deposit data

suggested that growth in both M 1 and M2 would exceed the upper end of their ranges of tolerance.

Accordingly, the Account Manager adopted a

more reluctant approach to the provision of reserves, expecting the Federal funds rate to move up to around 10¾ per cent, the upper end of its range.

Money market pressures proved unexpectedly strong, however,

and Federal funds began to trade around 11 per cent toward the end of the statement week ending April 24th. to

raise

Given these conditions, and the action

the discount rate to 8 per cent on April 24, Chairman Burns

recommended on that day raising the upper end of the tolerance range for the Federal funds rate to 11 per cent.

A majority of the Committee members

concurred in this recommendation. (4)

Subsequently, the Account Manager sought reserve conditions

consistent with an 11 per cent Federal funds rate.

Unusually strong

money market pressures persisted, however, and the Federal funds rate averaged above 11 per cent.

In the past statement week the effective

rate has been consistently close to 11 eased to about 11.35 per cent.

per cent, although today it

It appears that member banks have had

a strong preference to avoid borrowing at the discount window, opting instead to pay a higher rate on Federal funds.

Apart from special

borrowing by a problem bank, member bank borrowing over the past two statement weeks averaged $1.6 billion, down from an average of almost $2 billion in the previous three weeks. (5)

The Desk has been handicapped in attempting to counteract

these pressures by the technical state of the markets for Treasury and

-4Dealer positions in U.S. Government securities

Federal Agency securities.

have been depleted throughout the period, reflecting the state of expectations in the dealer community, sizable Desk purchases, and good Collateral for repurchase agreements has also been on

retail demand. the scarce side.

Moreover, dealers have withdrawn sizable amounts of

repurchase agreements before maturity because they have been making considerable net sales of Treasury securities to the public. (6)

On May 17, Chairman Burns recommended that the Committee

take note of the difficulties faced by the Desk in the recent period. Also, given the likelihood that the technical problems encountered might persist over the next few days, the Chairman expressed the view that it would be appropriate to change the ceiling guideline for the funds rate from 11 to ll¼ per cent.

A majority of Committee members concurred in the

Chairman's recommendations. (7) After rising sharply early in the inter-meeting period, interest rates on Treasury securities, particularly on Treasury bills, have dropped considerably in recent days.

The 3-month bill rate was

quoted 7.93 per cent at the close on Friday, as compared with an average issuing rate of 9.02 per cent established in the auction of May 6.

The

rally in the Treasury securities market has been generated not only by the previously noted shortage of issues, but also by an apparent shift of investor preferences toward securities of the highest quality, sparked by news stories regarding the problems of the Franklin National Bank and widespread rumors that some other banks and financial houses might also be encountering difficulties.

-5(8)

Private short-term rates have risen sharply since the

last Committee meeting.

Banks have raised their prime rates from the

10 per cent level prevailing in mid-April into an 11¼--11½ per cent range.

Yields on large CD's and commercial paper with 3-month maturity

dates have risen a percentage point or more to levels above 11 per cent. Evidence of a move toward higher quality securities is also apparent in these sectors of the credit markets.

There are reports, for example, that

a number of investors have reduced the list of institutions whose commercial paper, bankers' acceptances, and negotiable CD's they are prepared to acquire.

And there has been a marked widening of the yield

spread between issues of prime and lower grade borrowers in these markets. (9)

For its mid-May refunding operations, the Treasury

decided to pay down $1.6 billion of the $5.6 billion of maturing debt and to refund the remainder by issuing three securities: of an 8¾,

$2.0 billion

5½ month note; $1.75 billion of an 8¾, 4¼ year note; and

$300 million of a 8.50 per cent, 25-year bond.

Both notes were auctioned

at prices near par and currently are quoted above their auction averages. The bond was auctioned at a substantial premium to provide a yield of 8.23 per cent; the premium subsequently increased enough to reduce the yield to 8.13 per cent, but most recently the price has fallen back to about the auction average.

Dealers have now distributed the bulk of

their awards of all three issues. (10)

The table on the next page shows (in percentage annual

rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various recent time periods; money supply figures are on a revised basis.

Appendix

-6table III compares money supply growth rates computed on a quarterlyaverage basis with those computed on a last-month-of-quarter basis. Projected figures on the two bases are shown in appendix table IV for the three alternatives presented in the next section.

Average of Past Three Calendar Years 1971 -1973

Past

Twelve Months Apr. '74 over Apr. '73

Six Months Apr. '74 over Oct. '73

Three Months Apr. '74 over Jan. '74

Past Month Apr. '74 over Mar. '74

Total reserves

8.5

8.2

7.5

33.1

Nonborrowed reserves

7.6

8.6

6.2

-7.1

19.4

Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits

8.8

9.8

7.1

10.6

20.0

7.0

7,2

8.6

10.8

8.3

other than large CD's) 10.4

9.6

10.1

10.3

8.2

11.7

8.9

9.4

7.6

Total member banks deposits (bank credit proxy adj.)

10.5

11.1

15.0

31.9

Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/

12.8

12.0

12.1

16.4

16.5

1.0

1.4

1.9

3.3

7.6

-.6

-.8

Concepts of Money (revised series) M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/

M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks

M 3 (M2 plus deposits at

thrift institutions) Bank Credit

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ 2/

Other than interbank and U.S. Government. Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches.

NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-ofmonth figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (11)

Alternative policy approaches are summarized below for

Committee consideration (with more detailed figures shown in the table on P.8a). Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

6¼

5½

4¾

6½

Credit proxy

18-20

16½-18½

15½-17½

5-7

4½-6½

4-6

5½-7½

5-7

4-6

Federal funds rate range (inter-meeting period)

10-12

11-13

12-14

Targets (2nd & 3rd qtrs. combined)

Associated ranges for May-June RPD

(12)

At its last meeting, the Committee established a 5½ per

cent annual rate of growth for M 1 from March to September as its longerrun target.

Since then, the March level of M1 has been raised by

$1.3 billion, reflecting revisions for new year-end benchmark data (as explained in the footnote on page 1).

The 4¾ per cent annual rate of

growth for M 1 in alternative C has been set to compensate for this upward revision.

As shown in the chart on the following page, such a

growth rate would achieve the M 1 level in September that was implicit in the longer-run path adopted by the Committee at its last meeting. Alternative B continues a 5½ per cent growth rate for M1, but from the

MONEY SUPPLY AND LONGER RUN TARGET PATH

RATIO SCALE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

REVISED SERIES

RATE OF GROWTH DEC. '72 TO MAR. '74

%%GROWTH .--

280

GROWTH

6.4%

LEVEL

- 270

- 260

1973

1974

Alternative Longer-Run Targets for Key Monetary Aggregates

1974

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Apr. May June

278.1 279.2 280.8

278.1

278.1 279.1 280.3

590.2 592.8 596.5

590.2 592.8 595.9

590.2

279.2 280.6

921.6 924.9

595.2

921.6 924.9 929.7

928.8

924.7 927.9

Sept.

284.7

283.9

282.8

606.3

603.7

600.6

942.7

939.4

935.3

592.7

921.6

Rates Of Growth

Quarters: 1974

M3 Alt. B

2nd Q. 3rd Q.

6.4 4.7

7.0 6.6

5.7 4.6

5.3 3.2

4.3 5.1

4.0

Months:

May June

4.7 6.9

4.7 6.0

4.3 5.2

Adjusted Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1974

5.3

5.3 6.3

7.5 Alt. A

Apr. May June

471.3 477.4 482.2

471.3 477.4 481.8

471.3 477.4 481.5

35,914 36,557

Sept.

491.2

487.0

20.1 7.5

15.5 12.1

5.1 5.1

Total Reserves Alt. B Alt. C

4.3 6.2

4.2

Alt. A

RPD Alt. B

Alt. C

36,635

35,914 36,550 36,565

35,914 36,550 36,486

33,669 34,296 34,730

33,669 34,288 34,660

33,669 34,280 34,581

482.0

36,918

36,440

35,911

35,338

34,867]

34,336

19.8 4.3

19.5 0.5

19.3 3.1

18.5

17.6 6.3

19.5

18.6 2.4

17.7

15.5 11.0

15.5 10.3

21.5 2.6

21.2 0.5

21.2 -2.2

22.4

22.1

22.0

15.2

13.0

10.1

Quarters: 1974

2nd Q. 3rd Q.

1.7

7.0

-2.8

Months: May June

-8a-

-9Alternative A contemplates a somewhat more rapid 6¼ per

new March level.

cent growth rate in M 1 over the second and third quarters combined. (13)

A somewhat more rapid longer-run rate of growth in M1 than

adopted by the Committee at its last meeting, such as envisioned under alternative A, appears necessary if money market conditions are not to Under alternative A, the staff would expect the Federal

tighten further.

funds rate to trade most frequently around 11-11¼ per cent. (14)

The funds rate has been subject to upward pressure, in

part because of a shift of bank borrowing preferences from the window to the funds market.

This pressure may moderate, however, if more normal

borrowing preferences come to prevail.

We have assumed that member banks

will want to increase their borrowing (apart from special borrowing) to about $2 billion per week on average under alternative A, given the roughly 3 percentage point spread of the Federal funds rate over the current 8 per cent discount rate.

Special borrowing by a problem bank may add another

$1 billion or so to borrowing levels. (15)

If funds were to trade mostly around 11 per cent over

the weeks ahead there probably would be some decline in other short-term rates, and also in long rates, since market participants appear to have adjusted to a funds rate somewhat above this level.

Declines could be

fairly sizable, at least temporarily, if the market were to interpret such a move as signaling a shift in policy direction.

Moreover, the

shift in investor preferences toward high quality assets, and the

-10continued short market supply of Treasury bills, would tend to keep Treasury rates low relative to other market rates--perhaps in a 7½--8½ per cent range in the case of the 3-month bill.

The odds on bill rates

settling in the upper part of this range would increase if the Treasury should choose to issue a bill strip of $1-1½ billion--a possibility that has been under some discussion. (16)

With the money market conditions assumed under alternative

A, the staff would expect M1 growth in May-June to be in a 5-7 per cent range.

The mid-point of this range, if attained, would produce a 6¾ per

cent annual growth rate in the second quarter.

Growth would be expected

to slow somewhat in the third quarter to about a 5¾ per cent rate, as demand for money is further restrained by lagged impacts of the sharp rise in short-term interest rates over the past few months. (17)

Growth in time and savings deposits at banks (other than

negotiable CD's at the large weekly reporting banks), and in deposits at thrift institutions has been sharply curtailed by the attraction of high market interest rates to savers.

We would expect this tendency

to continue even under alternative A, so that M2 growth over the second and third quarters would be expected to slow to around 6.5 per cent, and in M3 to about 5.0 per cent--on the order of 4 percentage points below the average annual rate of expansion in the fourth and first quarters. (18)

Restraining M1 growth to a 5½ per cent annual rate over

the second and third quarters--as under alternative B-- would be expected to put somewhat more pressure on the money market, with the

-11Federal funds rate rising to around 12 per cent between now and the next Committee meeting.

The 3-month bill rate would likely move up into

an 8½--9½ per cent range over the next few weeks, and other market rates would also adjust upward.

This rise in rates would be needed to hold

the rise in money demands to a pace consistent with a 5½ per cent growth rate for M1 in the second and third quarters, in view of the larger increase in prices and nominal GNP. now projected.

This relationship

between money growth and interest rates makes no allowance for the possibility that liquidity preference may increase if confidence in financial markets continues to weaken. To achieve the even greater restraint on monetary ex-

(19)

pansion called for under alternative C, the Federal funds rate would be expected to rise to around 13 per cent over the next few weeks.

The

time and savings deposits experience at banks and thrift institutions would be expected to deteriorate further--with deposit flows at thrift institutions probably negative as the Treasury bill rate adjusted sharply upward, perhaps to near 10 per cent. (20)

Under alternative A, banks are expected to continue

borrowing fairly heavily through CD's, and to obtain funds in the EuroWe have projected a slower growth in CD's, though, in

dollar market.

the expectation that tighter lending terms by banks will work to moderate loan growth.

Moreover, it appears that less-than-prime banks are be-

ginning to encounter investor resistance to their CD's.

If, as seems

quite possible, such resistance intensifies, CD growth could be substantially less than projected, bank credit expansion could be constrained, and strains in

other financial markets (including the Euro-dollar market)

be exacerbated.

could

-12(21)

Under alternative C and possibly also B, sharply higher

interest rates would erode asset values and bring the adequacy of bank liquidity into question.

Banks outside major money centers might in some

cases be excluded altogether from raising funds in national money markets. With the intensification of pressures on financial institutions and financial markets, many institutional lenders would likely severely restrict loan extensions.

The mortgage market would come under great

pressure and some nonfinancial businesses would encounter serious liquidity problems. (22)

A further significant rise in interest rates over the

next few months may need to be followed by a decline in late summer in order to avoid unduly limiting monetary expansion in the final months of the year.

Alternative C has the greatest potential for such a pattern,

and might well bring about a severe wrenching of market conditions.

-13Proposed directive (22)

Presented below are three alternative formulations for

the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section.

In all three alternatives, it is proposed to

delete the reference to Treasury financing because the quarterly refunding announced on May 1 has been completed and the issues largely distributed. Also, in view of the strong connection between U.S. financial markets, the Euro-dollar market, and foreign exchange markets, it is proposed to say ". . .while

taking account of financial market developments. . ."

without separate reference to "international" and "domestic" developments.

In alternative C, it is proposed to give special emphasis to that phase--i.e.,". . .while taking careful account. . ."--in view of the

strong possibility of exaggerated market reactions to the sharp rise in interest rates associated with open market operations designed to achieve the specified rates of growth in the aggregates. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of [DEL: the domestic] internationl of and financing Treacury forthcoming

financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that moderate] would [DEL:

CONSISTENT

WITH MODERATE growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead.

-14Alternative B the To implement this policy, while taking account of [DEL: domestic] international of and financing Treasury forthcoming financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that would moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking CAREFUL account of domestic] international of and financing Treasury forthcoming the [DEL: financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that would moderate SLOW APPRECIABLY THE growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. (23)

In the event that the Committee wishes to couch the

operational paragraph of the directive in terms of money market conditions, the specifications of alternative A might be associated with language indicating that ". . .the Committee seeks to maintain about the prevailing restrictive money market conditions, provided that the monetary aggregates appear to be growing at rates within the specified ranges of tolerance."

CHART 1

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

5/17/74

RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

11% growth for Apr

-38

1974 11

11 4 1i i I liliiI I I I I,I

LI I -II _ III11111111 M

J ]973

J 1974

I S

SBreak in Series Actual Level of RPD After Changes in Reserve Requirements

-l D

CHART 3

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

PER CENT - 12

INTEREST RATES Short-term

PERCENT -I 13

-8

1973

1974

1973

1974

1973

1974

TABLE

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

MAY

BANK RESERVES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) AGGREGATE RESERVES

II RESERVES

AVAILABLE

PRIVATE NOMBANK

FOR

DEPOSITS

PERIO

---SEAS ADJ

(1)

I I

32,791 33,117 33.669 134,296)

----------I NON SEAS ADJ I

(2)

1974

REQUIRED RESERVES

-----------------

--------

I------------

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

II----------------------------------------------------

17,

TOTAL RESERVES

NONBORROWED I RESERVES I

(3)

(4)

359108 34,949 35,914 (36,557)

33,916 339634 34,178 (34,502)

PRIVATE DEMAND

-------

OTHER TIME DEP

CD'S AND NON DEP

(6)

(7)

18)

3,967 4,037 4,416 1 5,024)

2,316 1,831 2,245 ( 2,261)

(5)

GOV'T AND INTERBANK

MONTHLY LEVELS-$MILLIONSI

1974--FEB MAR. APR. MAY ANNUAL

32,875 32,888 33,751 (34,112)

20,039 20,291 20,411 120,350)

8,601 8,654 8,651 8,715)

RATES OF CHANGE

--------------

QUARTERLY: 1973--4TH OTR.

1.4

1974--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR.

6.2 S19.7)

1.7 ( 19.5

1.5 ( 2.6)

1.3 1 2.5)

-0.3 11.9 20.0 22.3)

-24.8 -5.4 33.1 ( 21.5)

-30.4 -10.0 19.4 S11.4)

-15.7 15.1 7.1 ( -3.6)

MONTHLY: 1974--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY

(

APR.-MAY

6.1

(

(21.4)

27.61

13.4

15.51

5.8

(

1.71

12.7

9.2 3.7)

10.7 7.4 -0.4 8.9) 4.2)

WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS MAR.

6 13 20 27

33,134 32,938 33,216 33,115

32,810 32,594 33,030 32,979

34,663 34,792 35,233 34,808

33,751 33,809 33,750 33,095

20,351 20,140 20,470 20,229

8,647 8,663 8,659 89649

4,01.7 4,019 4,007 4,068

1,530 1,854 2,017 1,693

APR.

3 10 17 24

33,240 33,117 33,794 33,773

33,116 32,849 33,835 34,042

35,398 35,040 36,161 36,057

33,895 33,846 34,345 34,119

20,263 20,218 20,468 20,359

8,652 8,633 8,628 8,657

4,099 4,204 4,369 4,566

2,158 1,923 2,367 2.284

MAY

1 8 15

34,258 34,151 34,169

34,682 34,304 34,094

36,737 36,385 36,633

34,580 34,768 34,833

20,705 20,385 20,240

8,693 8,698 8,727

4,702 4,855 4.958

2,478 2,234 2,463

NOTE: DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF APRIL 16, THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD RANGE OF 6 TO 11 PERCENT FOR THE APRIL-HAY PERIOD.

1974

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

TABLE 2

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

(ACTUAL

PERIOD

I I I

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

II II II

(21

(31)

581.9 586.2 590.2 1592.8)

454.8 459.1 471.3 (477.4)

S MONEY SUPPLY I NARROW I BROAD (MI) I (M2) (11

U.S. GOVT. DEPOSITS (41

I I I

MAY 17, 1974

I I I

TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS I OTHER I TOTAL I THAN CD S I CD S

16)

17)

NONDEPOSIT SOURCES OF FUNDS

18)

I MONTHLY LEVELS-tBILLIONSI 273.7 276.2 278.1 (279.2)

1974--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY

3.0 3.7 4.6 ( 3.9)

308.2 310.0 312.1 (313.7)

374.8 377.7 387.4 (394.6)

66.6 67.7 75.3 (80.9)

7.7 8.6 9.6 (10.71

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1973--4TH OTR.

11.0

8.9 I I

3.3 8.5 (20.7)

15.6 (23.5)

12.5 ( 7.4)

13.6 8.9 8.2 1 5.3)

1.3 11.3 31.9 (15.5)

15.2 9.3 30.8 (22.3)

14.2 7.0 8.1 ( 6.2)

f 6.5)

( 6.8)

(23.9)

(26.8)

( 7.2)

277.0 276.1 275.9 275.5

586.6 585.8 586.1 585.7

458.2 456.4 459.3 460.2

4.2 3.0 4.0 3.6

375.5 376.5 377.3 379.0

309*6 309*7 310.2 310.2

65.9 66.8 67.1 68.8

8.0 8.1 8.8 9.2

3 10 17 24

277.4 277.6 280.0 277.7

588.0 589.2 592.2 590.1

466.3 468.4 472.9 471.8

4.8 5.0 5.0 4.0

382.0 385.4 387.0 389.2

310.5 311.5 312.2 312.3

71.4 73.9 74.8 76.9

9.5 9.3 9.4 9.7

1 8 P 15 PE)

276.9 278.4 278.9

589.8 591.1 592.4

473.7 476.4 476.4

4.4 5.3 3.4

390.8 392.3 394,1

312.9 312.7 313.5

77.9 79.6 80.6

1974--LST QTR 2ND QTR.

7.1 ( 6.7)

12.9 11.0 8.3 1 4.7)

9.9 7.0)

12.6

6.1

MONTHLY 1974--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY APR.-NAY WEEKLY LEVELS-SBILL IONS I

----------------

MAR.

6 13 20 27

APR.

MAY

I----

- --

U ----

-----

NOTE: DATA SHOIN IN PARENTHESES

-C--

~--

--- ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

10.2 10.4 10.7

~-------

YL-

- PRELIMINARY

PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATED -LI 1

------- -

----------

C------

----

II----

-------

--- --

- --

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) MAY

17,

1974

TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted)

Bills & Accept. (1)

Open Market Operations 1/ Agency RP's Coupon Issues Issues Net 3/ (3) (4) (2)

Total (5)

Daily Average Reserve Effect 2/ Other 4/ Open Market a Member Bank Borrowing Factors Operations (8) (6) (7)

in reserve categories available res. 5/ req. res. against U.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) (10) (9)

Target available reserves 5/ (11)

Monthly 1973 --

Oct. Nov. hec.

1,972 -1,008 1,862

-533 226

172 71 128

295 -902 -831

2,440 -1,307 1,386

1,986 394 1,336

-395 -68 -101

-678 -646 -759

379 -190 -70

534 -130 546

1,005 860 475

1974 --

Jan. Feb. March

-397 -32 -64

179 30 190

-10 74 122

-100 -1,531

-328 71 1,780

1,031 9 -74

-254 143 166

698 -1,505 -358

773 -356 -323

702 -997 57

895 -875 -30

April May June

790

172

312

-485

789

922

362

-338

177

769

315 -130

Weekly 1974 --

1/ 2/ J/ 4/ /

Mar.

6 13 26 27

-759 -416 451 -18

--190 --

-5 -43 -170

370 2,116 -893 -1,474

-394 1,657 -252 -1,321

-376 -21 678 136

-339 71 501 229

497 65 -717 -800

-326 332 25 -384

108 -217 437 -51

Apr.

3 10 17 24

--5 206 -33

---172

---119

251 -532 142

251 -5 738 399

494 -785 963 156

-210 -309 622 122

385 653 -331 -367

532 -174 268 54 -3 p

137p -267 986 265p

May

1 8 15 22 29

526 267 176

193 --- 220 494 446

939 761 622

1,103

219

-591p

91p

640p

483 454

-540 360

-359p -525p

-38p 49 3 p

-378p -204p

Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; Includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. Represents change in daily average level for preceding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. Target change for April and May reflects the target adopted at the April 16, 1974 FOMC meeting. Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) MAY 17, 1974 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS Millions of dollars

U S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Period

Bills (1)

Coupot Issues (2)

Dealer Positions Corporate Municipal Bonds Bonds (3) (4)

Excess** Reserves (5)

Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit Total Seasonal 8 Ney York 38 Qthers (6) (7) (8) (9)

1973 --

High Low

3,796 897

1,299 -301

197 0

384 36

631 -240

2,561 688

163 3

-5,243 -1,831

-10,661 -4,048

1974 --

High Low

3,238 305

2,203 -39

253 7

371 43

394 -83

2,157 776

94 13

-6,189 2,672

-12,843 - 9,181

1973 --

Apr May Tune

2,457 1,894 2,281

106 421 562

12 66 33

60 151 120

255 161 234

1,688 1,843 1,851

3 30 75

-3,293 -3,019 -3,507

-6,577 -5,872 -6,443

July Aug. Sept

1,425 1,690 2,745

265 39 395

24 0 6

139 70 80

285 177 216

1,953 2,165 1,852

155 163 148

-2,460 -2,689 -3,173

-6,106 -4,440 -5,355

Oct Nov. Dec

2,565 2,804 3,441

484 793 973

44 90 105

226 148 276

227 239 307

1,476 1,393 1,298

126 84 41

-3,814 -4,469 -4,682

-6,090 -8,186 -9,793

Jan Feb Mar

3,102 2,436 1,986

540 1,619 583

114 120 68

254 263 239

162 184 134

1,051 1,162 1,314

18 17 32

-4,753 -5,262 -5,030

-10,893 -10,769 -11,058

Apr

*1,435

1,736p

40p

-3,952

-11,603

1974 --

NOTE:

Mar. 6 13 20 27

2,474 2,466 1,501 1,538

1,097 848 520 154

114 14 71 73

298 286 167 204

118 116 80 169

912 983 1,483 1,713

19 19 34 44

-5,911 -5,858 -4,304 -4,402

-10,497 -11,388 -11,441 -11,298

Apr. 3 10 17 24

2,264 2,120 1,754 * 472

263 212 80 * -39

86 16 30 24

97 46 43 124

226 62 329 190p

1,503 1,194 1,816 1,938p

48 41 47 54p

-4,032 -5,375 -4,739 -2,672

-11,062 -11,470 -12,826 -11,648

May

* * *

*-15 *-17 *384

7 37 150p

153 129 95p

158p 213p 250p

74p 82p 94p

-2,967 3 676 - , p 3 9 9 - , 9 p

- 9,712 - 9,185p - 9,181p

1 8 15. 22 29

810 616 305

,157p 6 1, 17p 1,977p

Government security dealer trading positions are on a commtiment basis. Trading positions, wnicn exclude Treasury DiLLs rinanced by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions are debt issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate less net Federal funds purchases which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) MAY 17,1974

TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES Per cent

Treasury Bills Period

1973 --

1974 --

U.S Government (10-yr Constant Maturity)

FNMA Auction Yields

i-Year

(2)

(3)

Low

10.84 5.61

8.95 5.15

8.43 5.42

10.50 5.63

10.50 5.38

10.75 5.50

8.52 7.29

8.30 7.26

5.59 4.99

7.54 6.42

9.37 7.69

High Low

11.46 8.81

8.78 7.04

8.52 6.39

11.00 7.88

11.00 8.00

11.00 7.88

9.27 8.05

9.14 8.14

6.00 5.16

7.66 6.93

9.34 8.43

Apr. May

7.12 7.84 8.49

6.26 6.36 7.19

6.51 6.63 7.05

7.13 7.26 8.00

7.04 7.44 7.98

6.75 7.41 8 13

7.46 7.51 7.64

7.48 7.50 7.64

5.15 5.15 5.18

6.67 6.85 6.90

7.89 7.98 8.07

July Aug. Sept.

10.40 10.50 10.78

8.01 8.67 8.29

7.97 8.32 8.07

9.26 10.26 10.31

9.09 10.25 10.31

9.19 16.40 10.50

8.01 8.36 7.88

7.97 8.22 7.99

5.40 5.48 5.10

7.13 7.40 7.09

8.46 8.83 9.32

Oct. Nov. Dec.

10.01 10.03 9.95

7.22 7.83 7.45

7.17 7.40 7.01

9.14 9.11 9.28

9.15 9.06 9.44

9.08 8.91 9.13

7.90 7.90 8.00

7.94 7.94 8.04

5.05 5.18 5.12

6.79 6.73 6.74

9.01 8.84 8.78

Jan.

9.65 8.97 9.35 10.51

7.77 7.12 7.97

7.01 6.51 7.34 8.08

9.05 8 09 8.69 9.81

8.83 7.97 8.56

8.33

8.86 8.00 8.64 9.92

9.78

8.21 8.12 8.46 8.98

8.22 8.23 8.42 8.94

5.22 5.20 5.41 5.73

6.99 6.96 7.21 7.51

8.71 8.48 8.53 9.07

13 20 27

8.98 9.03 9 33 9.61

7.60 7.81 7.93 8.22

6.91 7.02 7.26 7 83

8.15 8.33 8.58 9.10

8.25 8.38 8.75 9.38

8.13 8 25 8.63 9.25

8.37 8.33 8.59 8.64

8.27 8.37 8.52 8.67

5.27 5.32 5.46 5.57

7.08 7.12 7.28 7.38

Apr. 3 10 17 24

9.93 10.02 10.36 10.78

8.41 8.60 8.13 7.96

7.84 8.10 8.01 8.08

9.45 9.63 9.80 10.03

9.38 9.75 9.88 10.25

9.25 9.75 9.88 10.25

8.78 9.13 8.91 8.98

8.75 8.92 8.95 9 08

5.73 5.75 3.61 5.82

7 47 7.48 7.46 7.58

May

1 8 15 22 29

11.17 11.29 11.46

8.65 8.78 8.15

8.34 8.52 8.21

10.65 10.98 11.00

10.75 11.00 10.88

10.75 11.00 11.00

9.27 9.27 9.22p

9.01 9 14 . p n.a.

5.91 6.00 6.04

7.63 7.66 7.55p

9 16

11.51 11.53p

8.49 7.94

8.49 8.08

11.00 11.00

High

Mar.

Daily--May -- ____

Municipal Bond Buyer

90-Day

Apr.

NOTES:

INew 60-89 Day

Aaa Utility Recently Issue Offered

(1)

Feb. Mar.

1974 --

Long-Term CD's New Issue-NYC

Federal Funds

June

1974 --

Short-Term 90-119 Day Conmmercial paper

-~---e

(4)

(5)

90-119 Day

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(11)

(10)

8.44 8.62 8.95 9.18 9.34

7.70 n.a. --

-~-L~--------

Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For Columns 7, 8 and 10 the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in the hi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages.

APPENDIX TABLE I

May 17,

1974

RESERVES ANDMONETARY VARIABLES

RESERVES

period

Total (1)

Nonborrowed (2)

MONEYSTOCK MEASURES BANKCREDIT MEASURES Available to Support Pvt. Deposits (3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

Adjusted Credit Proxy

OTHER

Total Loans and Investments

(7)

Total Time

Time Other than CD's

(9)

(8)

(10)

Thrift Institution Deposits 1/ (11)

(12)

Nondeposit Funds (13)

(Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth) (

revised

Series

1970 1971 1972 1973

+6.0 +7.2 +10.6 +7.8

+9.3 +7.8 +7.7 +7.2

+8.7 +6.9 +10.1 +9.3

+6.0 +6.3 +8.7 +6.1

+8.4 +11.2 +11.1 +8.9

+8.3 +13.3 +13.0 +8.8

+8.2 +9.4 +11.6 +10.6

+8.1 +11.2 +14.6 +12.6

+17.9 +18.2 +15.7 +16.0

+11.1 +16.7 +13.5 +11.4

+8.0 +17.1 +16.6 +8.6

+14.4 + 7.7 +10.4 +19.4

+0.4

SeMtiIAnnually: 1st Half 1972 2nd Half 1972

+10.8 +9.9

+11.0 +4.1

+8.3 +11.5

+7.7 +9.4

+10.7 +10.9

+12.4 +12.8

+11.2 +11.3

+13.6 +14.7

+15.4 +14.8

+13.8 +12.3

+15.7 +16.3

+4.4 +6.0

-0.2 +0.6

+6.7 +8.6

+1.6 +12.7

+10.3 +7.8

+7.7 +4.4

+9.1 +8.2

+9.7 +7.5

+13.8 +7.0

+16.6 +8.0

+20.8 +10.2

+10.4 +11.8

+10.7 +6.1

+18.6 + 0.8

+1.2 +1.8

1st Half 1973 2nd Half 1973

-8.4 -7.6 +3.0

IstQtr. 2st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr.

19 1972 1972 1972 1972

+8.7 +12.6 +4.4 +15.1

+9.1 +12.6 -0.9 +9.2

+9.6 +6.9 +10.4 +12.2

+13.5 +11.0 +13.3 +12.0

+10.5 +11.6 +10.2 +12.1

+15.7 +11.1 +13.0 +15.8

+14.5 +15.7 +14.3 +14.8

+15.5 +11.7 +12.7 +11.4

+15.9 +14.9 +17.8 +14.2

+0.7 +3.7 +2.4 +3.6

-0.3 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3

Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr.

1973 1973 1973 1973

+6.4 +6.9 +10.6 +6.1

-3.6 +7.0 +11.3 +13.4

+7.8 +12.5 +14.2 +1.4

+8.6 +10.6 +5.1 +9.8

+14.6 +12.6 +10.5 +3.3

+19.9 +12.7 +11.4 +4.4

+22.7 +17.8 +14.0 +6.1

+ 9.9 +10.6 +10.6 +12.6

+11.4 +9.7 +4.6 + 7.6

+11.2 +7.4 +4.7 -3.9

+0.5 +0.7 +1.7 +0.1

sltQtr.

1974

+1.7

+1.5

+6.2

+9.4

+8.5

+16.2

+15.6

+12.5

+8.6

+15.9 -2.9 +10.3 +10.0 +9.9 +17.3 +18.5 +10.1 +13.3 +1.0 -6.3 +9.4

+10.8 +8.1 +6.6 +8.6 +10.9 +11.9 +6.3 +5.0 +3.9 +9.3 +10.1 +9.6

+9.7 +11.1 +22.3 +15.4 +11.0 +11.1 +8.6 +17.0 +5.7 +1.6 +2.7 +5.6

+17.8 +23.7 +17.2 +13.1 +16.6 +8.2 +13.3 +16.7 +4.1 +6.7 +5.0 +1.5

+16.5 +22.3 +28.2 +22.5 +18.8 +11.2 +12.8 +18.9 + 9.8 + 3.7 + 3.3 +11.3

+12.9 + 7.0 + 9.6 +10.0 +10.8 +10.7 + 7.6 +13.0 +10.8 +16.1 +11.4 +10.1

+13.7 +11.6 +8.7 +9.0 +9.4 +10.4 +7.3 +2.3 +4.2 +6.8 +7.2 +8.6

+6.9 -0.3 +11.9 +20.0

+7.5 +11.5 +9.0 +7.6

+12.5 +1.3 +11.3 +31.9

+15.8 +15.0 +17.1 +16.5

+21.8 +15.2 +9.3 +30.8

+16.0 +14.2 +7.0 +8.1

+8.6 +7.8 +9.2 +6.6

1st 2nd 3rd 4th

1973--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

+30.1 -21.1 +10.5 +14.7 +5.4 +27.2 -5.1 +9.4 +12.1 -4.3 +10.5

+26.8 -38.5 +1.8 +20.1 +0.5 +0.2 +24.9 -13.5 +21.9 +26.7 -1.6 +14.4

1974--Jan. Feb. Mar. April p

+35.7 -24.8 -5.4 +33.1

+45.9 -30.4 -10.0 +19.4

+0.5

U.S. Gov't Demand (14)

(Dollar Change in Billions)

(Series revised)

Annually

CD's

+4.9

+1.2

+ 1.3 + 4.4 + 5.5 + 3.8 + 2.9 + 0.7 + 1.9 + 2.4 + 0.4 - 2.9 - 1.8 + 0.8

+0.6 -0.5 +0.4 +0.2 +0.3 +0.2 +0.9 +0.6 +0.2 -0.4 +0.2 +0.3

42.7 +1.1 +1.1 +7.6

+0.1 +0.2 +0.9 +1.0

1/ Growth rates are based on estimated monthly average levels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous month reported data, NOTE: Reserve Requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. p - Preliminary.

May

APPENDIX TABLE II RESERVES AND MONETARYVARIABLES (Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars)

Total (1)

Period

Nonborrowed

Available to Support Pvt. Deposits

Total (4)

M, I Pvt. Dep. I (5) I (6) (Series revised) 425.2 172.2 473.0 182.6 525.5 198.7

642.7 727.9 822.8

3 (7)

Adjusted Credit Proxy (3)

Total Loans & Investments

1974

OTHER

BANjCCREDIT MEASURES

MONEYSTOCKMEASURES

RESERVES

17,

(9)

Total Time (10)

332.9 364.3 406.4

438.5 487.6 559.0

229.2 270.9 313.3

Thrift Time Institution Other Deposital then, CD's (11) (1Z) Series revised) 217.5 203.9 237.9 254.8 297.2 269.9

NonDeposits '

U.S. Gov't Desapd

6dsi (13)

'(4)

(15)

25.3 33.0 43.4

11.6 4.0 4.4

6.5 6.1 6.1

ANNUALLYDec. 1970 Dec. 1971 Dec. 1972

29,193 31,299 31,410

28,861 31,173 30,360

27,099 28,965 29,053

221.2 235.2 255.7

'IONTIILY 97 1 1--an. Feb. Mar.

12.199 31,634 31,910

31,037 30.040 30,085

29,439 29,368 29,621

256.7 257.9 258.1

199.6 200.4 200.1

529.6 532.4 534.7

830.2 835.8 940.4

409.7 413.5 421.2

567.3 578.5 586.8

317.6 323.6 331.2

272.9 274.5 276.6

300.6 303.5 305.7

44.7 49.1 54.6

5.0 4.5 4.9

6.7 6.1 7.6

Apr. May June

32,300 32,445 32,459

30,589 30,602 30,608

29,867 30,114 30,548

259.4 262.4 265.5

200.8 203.4 206.2

538.4 543.7 549.5

846.4 854.1 862.6

426.6 430.5 434.5

593.2 601.4 605.5

337.4 342.7 345.9

278.9 281.4 283.9

308.0 310.4 313.1

58.4 61.3 62.0

5.1 5.4 5.6

7.1 5.2 5.3

July Aug. Sept.

33,576 33,906 34,173

31,622 31,741 32,321

31,358 32.038 32,394

266.4 266.3 265.5

206.9 206.4 205.3

552.1 555.1 556.8

867.1 870.7 873.5

437.6 443.8 445.9

612.2 620.7 622.8

349.6 355.1 358.0

285.7 288.8 291.4

315.0 315.6 316.7

63.9 66.3 66.7

6.5 7.1 7.3

3.9 4.8 5.0

Oct. Nov. Dec.

34,942 34,857 35,105

33,466 33,463 33,807

32,845 32,714 32,912

266.6 269.2 271.4

206.1 208.2 209.7

561.9 567.3 572.1

880.3 887.7 894.8

446.5 447.5 449.6

626.3 628.9 629.7

359.1 360.1 363.5

295.3 298.1 300.6

318.5 320.4 322.7

63.8 62.0 62.8

6.9 7.1 7.4

6.0 5.8 4.9

35,850 35,108 34,949 35.914

34,799 33,916 33,634 34,178

32,799 32,791 33,117 33,669

270.8 273.7 276.2 278.1

208.9 211.1 212.8 214.1

575.4 581.9 586.2 590.2

900.4 909.0 915.8 921.6

454.3 454.8 459.1 471.3

638.0 646.0 655.2 664.2

370.1 374.8 377.7 387.4

304.6 308.2 310.0 312.1

325.0 327.1 329.6 331.4

65.5 66.6 67.7 75.3

7.5 7.7 8.6 9.6

6.2 3.0 3.7 4.6

35,398 35,040 36,161 36,057

33,895 33,846 34,345 34,119

33,240 33,117 33,794 33,773

277.4 277.6 280.0 277.7

214.0 213.5 215.9 213.8

588.0 589.2 592.2 590.1

466.3 468.4 472.9 471.8

382.0 385.4 387.0 389.2

310.5 311.5 312.2 312.3

71.5 73.9 74.8 76.9

9.5 9.3 9.4 9.7

4.8 5.0 5.0 4.0

36,737 36,385

34,580 34,768

34,258 34,151

276.9 278.4

212.9 213.9

589.8 591.1

473.7 476.4

390.8 392.3

312.9 312.7

77.9 79.6

1974--Jan. Feb. Mar. April

1974--April

May

3 10 17 24 lp 8p

10.2 10.4

4.4 5.3

1/ Estimated monthly average levels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous month reported data. p - Preliminary. NOTE: Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, bank-related commercial paper and Eurodollar borrowings of U.S. banks. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks. Monthly data are daily averages except for nonbank commercial paper figures which are for last day of month. Weekly data are not available for M, total loans and investments and thrift institution deposits.

Appendix Table III

Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate)

1972

1973

9.0

5.3

12,3

6.2

8.2

8.9

III

8.7

8.2

9.9

8.4

3.8

7.0

11.5

7.5 5.6

Q-

12.5

9.8

11.0

11.7

10.8

13.3

13.0

10.6

10.2

12.0

12.2

8.6

10.2

7.0 11.1

5.3

8.8

10.6

9.0

7.9

5.1

7.5

8.8

8.9

4.5

11.0

8.9

9.8

7.9

7.1

6.7

9.9

9.4

13.5

11.0

IVI

1974

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

Appendix Table IV

Growth Rates in Money Supply for Alternatives

M1 M

M2 Q

NSL

Alt. A 1974

II III II & III Combined

6.7 5.6 6.2

8.5 5.7 7.1

7.0 6.6 6.8

8.3 6.6 7.4

6.1 5.6 5.8

7.5 5.6 6.5

5.7 4.6 5.1

7.4 4.7 6.0

5.3

7.2 3.5 5.3

Alt. B 1974

II III II & III Combined

6.4 4.7 5.5

8.3 4.9 6.6

6.6 5.3 5.9

8.1 5.5 6.8

Alt. C II III II & III Combined

1974

5.9 3.6 4.7

8.2 3.9 6.0

6.1 3.6 4.8

7.9 4.0 5.9

4.2 4.2

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in last months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

May 17, 1974 Appendix Table

Comparison of Money Stock Growth Rates

Old series

Revised series 1/

Old series

Revised series 1/

5.7

6.1

8.6

8.9

I H2

7.7 3.7

7.7 4.4

9.1 7.8

9.1 8.2

Q3 Q4

-0.2 7.5

0.0 8.9

5.2 10.1

5.3 11.0

1974 Q1

6.7

7.1

9.4

9.9

1973 June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

14.2 4.1 -0.9 -3.6 5.0 10.4 7.1

14.2 4.0 -0.5 -3.6 5.0 11.7 9.8

12.8 5.7 6.3 3.7 10.8 10.9 8.5

12.8 5.7 6.5 3.7 11.0 11.5 10.2

1974 Jan. Feb. Mar. April

-3.6 12.9 10.6 7.4

-2.7 12.9 11.0 8.3

6.3 13.4 8.3 7.8

6.9 13.6 8.9 8.2

1973 1973

1/ Incorporates benchmark data from December 1973 call report.

Appendix Table VI Money Supply Growth Rates

M1 1973

1974

M 1 less Foreign Official Deposits

M less Foreign Official Deposits and Deposits due to Foreign Commercial Banks

January

4.7

5.2

5.3

February

5.6

6.7

March

0.9

0.5

0.9

April

6.0

6.5

6.6

May

13.9

13.0

11.8

June

14.2

14.7

14.4

July

4.1

3.6

August

-0.5

September

-3.6

October

5.0

5.5

November

11.7

December

9.8

10.9

2.8 -3.7 4.6 10.1

9.9

8.2

January

-2.7

-3.6

February

12.9

12.5

13.1

March

11.0

11.5

11.2

April

8.3

6.1

5.8

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1974, May 20). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19740521

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19740521,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1974},
  month = {May},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19740521},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}