bluebooks · July 15, 1974

Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

(CONFIDENTIAL

FR)

July 12, 1974

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee

By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

July 12, 1974 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Recent developments (1)

Following an increase in M1 at a 7.3 per cent annual rate

in June, growth in July now appears likely to be at a rate a little over 5 per cent.

M1 growth for the June-July target period thus is

estimated at about 6¼ per cent, well within the range of tolerance set by the Committee at its last meeting.

M2 growth is also expected

to decelerate between June and July, with the June growth rate at 9½ per cent and the July projection at about 7 per cent.

The 2-month growth

rate is expected to be about 8¼ per cent, a little below the top of the range of tolerance.

RPD growth, on the other hand, is projected at

about a 15 per cent rate for the 2-month target period, above the top of its range of tolerance, as CD growth was stronger than expected.

-2Growth of Monetary Aggregates and RPD's in June-July Target Period Reserve and Monetary Aggregates

(Growth at SAAR in per cent

Range of Tolerance

Latest Estimates

6.2 8.3

Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

15.1

10-13

RPD's

11¾

Avg. for statement week ending June 19 11.85 11.97 June 26 July 3 13.55 13.34 July 10

Range shown is that set at the June 18 meeting of the Committee. In a telephone conference on July 5, the Committee agreed that for the time being the Desk should not press hard to reduce the funds rate, which had averaged 13.55 per cent in latest statement week, in view of the likelihood that the high level was primarily a consequence of technical factors which might well prove temporary. Subsequently, a majority of members concurred in the Chairman's recommendation of July 10 that System operations be undertaken promptly to reduce the average funds rate to 13 per cent, on the understanding that the rate would be permitted to decline to the neighborhood of 12 per cent should money market factors work in that direction.

(2)

Growth in the bank credit proxy over June and July is

expected to average close to 10 per cent, a less rapid expansion than in other recent months.

Business loan expansion, while weak in early June,

spurted from mid-June to early July, particularly at large banks.

important share of this borrowing reflects a shift of financing demands to banks that would ordinarily have been met in the commercial paper market

-3or by the issuance of corporate securities.

Some firms that lack the

highest credit rating have been prevented from tapping the commercial paper market because of investor unwillingness to buy their paper.

In the

market for corporate and municipal securities a number of issues--especially by public utilities--were canceled due to rapidly rising interest rates and reluctance on the part of underwriters to make bids in the atmosphere of rate uncertainty.

In this environment, there has been some market

discussion of possible capital controls, which may have also contributed to recent borrowing at banks. (3)

In June deposit growth at nonbank thrift institutions

(including interest credited) strengthened to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7½ per cent from the depressed April-May level.

This

improvement is probably temporary; partial data for early July indicate large outflows at both New York savings banks and large California S&L's following the mid-year interest crediting. (4)

Most short- and long-term interest rates have risen

sharply since the last meeting of the Committee.

In the short-term

area commercial paper, CD's, and bankers' acceptances increased by around 1 percentage point to levels ranging from 12¾-12¾ per cent in the 3-month area.

Bank prime rates generally have been increased to

12 per cent, but this level is low relative to currently prevailing short-term rates.

In contrast, short-term Treasury bill rates have

declined somewhat on balance, for three main reasons: the prime quality characteristic of bills, active demands from foreign and small investors, and recent large seasonal debt repayment by the Treasury.

Corporate

-4and municipal bond yields have increased by about

90 basis points since

mid-June; even larger increases in these rates were forestalled by cancelations and withdrawals of new issues. subject to much less upward pressure.

Treasury bond rates were

As rates have adjusted upwards,

the ability of a number of borrowers with less than the highest quality credit ratings to obtain funds in accustomed financial markets has been impaired--including some industrial and real estate commercial paper issuers, utilities, and bank holding companies.

In addition, a few

regional commercial banks are experiencing problems in rolling over CD's, especially in the national market, and some banks are reported to be having difficulty placing their acceptances.

Thus, yield spreads

representing risk differentials have widened markedly. (5) During the first statement week following the June Committee meeting the Federal funds rate edged up slightly to 11.97 per cent. Thereafter, the funds rate jumped to record highs, averaging 13.55 per cent in the week of July 3 and 13.34 per cent in the week of July 10.

The

rise in the funds rate was influenced by churning around the mid-year statement date and the July 4 holiday, uncertainties in both domestic and international financial markets, the increasingly sensitive state of CD and commercial paper markets, and perhaps a desire on the part of lenders to obtain a risk premium on some of their placements.

In this

environment, banks became more cautious in managing their money positions, and some city banks--despite the high cost of Federal funds-apparently wanted to stay out of the discount window in order to establish a clean record in liquidity pressures grow still

should needs the case of future borrowing more intense.

borrow at the window became evident in

The reluctance of banks to

the week ending July 10, when member

-5bank borrowing, other than emergency borrowing, declined to a level of $1.3 billion despite the record Federal funds rate.

Excess reserves in

early July also were somewhat higher than they have been recently, although this was in large part influenced by statement date windowdressing. (6) At the time of the telephone conference of the FOMC on July 5, chances seemed good that the funds rate would recede with a continuation of normal reserve-supplying operations.

On the basis of

the discussion at that meeting, the Desk continued to resist the high Federal funds rate without injecting an unusually large amount of reserves. Subsequently, however, the funds rate remained well above 13 per cent, and a majority of the members concurred in the Chairman's recommendation of July 10 that System operations be undertaken promptly with a view to reducing the average funds rate to 13 per cent, on the understanding that the rate would be permitted to decline to the neighborhood of 12 per cent should money market factors work in that direction.

Despite

large reserve-supplying operations, the funds rate remained about, 13½ per cent on Thursday and Friday, but if reserve projections turn out to be right it should decline somewhat after the weekend. (7)

The table on the next page shows (in percentage annual

rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various recent time periods.

Appendix table III compares money supply growth rates

computed on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a last-monthof-quarter basis.

Projected figures on the two bases are shown in

appendix table IV for the three alternatives presented in the next section.

-6Average of Past Three Calendar Years 1971 -1973

Past Twelve Months June '74 over June '73

Past Six Months June '74 over TDe. _'7 3

Past three Past Months Month June '74 June'74 over over M vl '74 .May '7A

Total reserves

8.5

10.2

10.9

20.3

6.6

Nonborrowed reserves

7.6

7.0

1.3

1.0

-7.6

Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits

8.8

11.1

13.2

20.2

18.2

7.0

5.8

7.0

6.8

7.3

M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) 10.4

8.7

8.8

7.6

9.3

M3 (M2 plus deposits at Thrift institutions)

11.7

7.9

8.1

6.6

7.8

Total member banks deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) 10.5

11.2

14.9

20.8

13.1

Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/

12.8

12.1

13.9

11.5

7.8

1.0

1.8

3.4

5.2

2.2

-.2

-.1

Concepts of Money Ml (currency plus demand deposits) 1/

Bank Credit

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions)

Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ 2/

Other than interbank and U.S. Government. Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches.

NOTE: All items are based on average of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesdayof-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments Specifications for alternative suggested policy stances

(8)

are summarized below for Committee consideration (with more detailed figures shown in the table on p. 7a). Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Targets (3rd & 4th qtrs. combined)

5½

6½

7½

4¾-6¾

4-6

3¼-5¼

6½-8½

5½-7½

4¾-6¾

RPD

10½-12½

9¾-ll¾

9-11

10-12

11-13

12-14

M1 M2 Credit proxy Associated ranges for July-August

Federal funds rate range (inter-meeting period)

(9)

Of the alternatives presented, alternative B represents

continuation of the longer-run target path for M1 adopted at the last Committee meeting.

In that alternative, the annual growth rate for the

second half of 1974 is 5½ per cent.

This is slightly above the 5¼ per

cent rate adopted at the last meeting simply because the June level for M1 turned out to be slightly lower than estimated at that time; the level set for December is unchanged from the previous meeting. (10)

The specifications of alternative B would contemplate a

Federal funds rate in an 11-13 per cent range between now and the next Committee meeting, and M1 growth for July-August in a 4-6 per cent annual

MONEY SUPPLY AND LONGER RUN TARGET PATH

RATIO SCALE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-- 1

- 285

5/4% RATE OF GROWTH JUNE '73 TO JUNE '74

. ... ....- *--* ....*** ....

5.8%

-1275

.***/

-1265

_________________________

N 1973

J 1974

-7aAlternative Longer-Run Targets for Key Monetary Aggregates

Alt. A

1974

June July Aug. Set. Dec.

280.9 282.2

M1 Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

280.9

282.1

282.0 282 9 283.8 286.6

597.4 601.2

597.4 601.0 604.0 606.8 616.7

597.4 600.9 603.2 605.2 612.3

930.9 936.1 941.0 946.6 963.6

930.9 935.8 939.5 943.5 956.4

930.9 935.7

5.2 4.7

6.7 7.2

5.4 5.5

6.2 3.5

7.0 4.6

6.7 6.3

6.3 4.7

4.3 3.7

290.9 290.9

288.8'

Quarters:

1974

3rd Q. 4th Q.

621.7

938.4

941.0 949.8

Rates of Growth

6.1 8.0

5.0 6.2

4.1 3.9

5.6 6.0

5.1 4.7

4.7 3.8

Months: July Aug.

7.6 7.6

Adjusted Credit * Pro y

1974

7.2 6.0

RPD

Total Reserves Alt. C Alt. B

At A

A!A. B

Alt. C

36,723 37,396 37,082

36,723 37,376 37,044

34,790 35,151 35,451

34,790 35,131 35,413

34,790 35,111 35,375

37,416

37,304

37,208

35,738

55,626

35,531

38,821

3?,485

38,121

36,615

36,286

35,929

10.9 9.8

9.6 7.4

8.5 4.5

12,5 10.2

11.8 9.6

11.1

Alt, A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt, A

June July Aug.

483.0 485.7 490.1

483.0 485.6 489.4

483.0 485.4 488.6

36,723 37,416 37,120

Sept.

494.6

493.1

491.5

Dec.

505.4

501.6

497.1

Quarters; 1974

3rd Q.

4th Q. Months

9.6 8.7

8.4 6.9

7.0 4.6

7.5 15,0

1?..7

5.3 9.8

22.7

22.0

21.4

o.3

July Aug.

6.7 10.9

6.5 9.4

-9.5

-10.1

-10.7

9.0

-8rate range.

The funds rate centers on 12 per cent, which would represent

an easing from the money market conditions prevailing over the past two weeks.

Such a funds rate would probably lead to some relaxation in

pressures on short- and long-term markets, partly because investors and borrowers would come to believe that monetary policy was a little less restrictive than had appeared to be the case in the most recent weeks. Any drop in market rates is likely to be modest in size and short-lived, however, given the inflationary environment, continued strong credit demands, and the forthcoming Treasury, Federal Financing Bank, and Agency financings (both to raise cash and to refund maturing issues).

Large

demands for U.S. securities by foreign official accounts, of course, could modify this rate outlook appreciably in particular market sectors. (11)

On July 31, the Treasury will announce the terms on which

it will refund $4.4 billion of publicly held securities maturing in midAugust.

A modest amount of new cash may also be raised in early August,

and looking ahead to September, the Treasury will probably have to raise about $3 billion of additional new cash.

Private credit demands are also

expected to be substantial in both short- and long-term markets.

With

markets increasingly cautious--and yield spreads between low and high quality issues widening further--a sizable part of the market demand may be diverted to banks as less than prime grade borrowers are forced to fall back on credit lines.

Thus, pressures on banks are likely to

remain intense. (12)

The ability of banks to finance additional loan demands

is expected to be relatively limited, though.

With growth in demand

deposits and consumer-type time deposits constrained, banks will be

-9under pressure to issue new CD's. market receptivity to CD's is

However, except for the prime names,

in some question.

In general, the recent

concern with liquidity exposure, on the part of both banks and investors, will probably reduce the pace at which new CD's will be offered.

As a

result, bank credit growth under alternative B is projected at around an 8½ per cent annual rate over the third quarter, substantially less than in the first half of the year.

This rate of expansion would probably mean

that banks will have to cut back sharply on acquisitions of securities, particularly municipal and Federal agency issues.

Thus, interest rates

in intermediate and longer-term markets would likely come under renewed upward pressure as time goes on.

The bank prime loan rate would probably

also rise somewhat further. (13)

Under alternative B pressures on thrift institutions would

be expected to be somewhat greater than during the second quarter.

Growth

in deposits at mutuals and savings and loan associations is expected to drop slightly to about a 3½ per cent annual rate, making no allowance for Citicorp and similar issues--the timing, terms, and volume of which are still unknown.

Rough estimates based on the terms originally announced

suggested that about half the funds for the $850 million Citicorp issue would come out of thrift institutions, about a quarter out of banks, and a quarter from other market instruments.

For a one-month period, this

would represent a reduction in deposits at thrift institutions by 1½ per cent at an annual rate and in consumer-type time deposits at banks by ¾ per cent at an annual rate.

-10(13)

Alternatives A and C specify faster and slower rates of

growth in monetary aggregates, respectively, than alternative B. Alternative C contemplates little

change from the Federal funds rate

that has come to prevail in recent weeks, and this would be expected to lead to a slowing in the growth rate of M1 to around 4 per cent over the second half of this year.

The market is currently in process of adjusting

to a funds rate in the 13 per cent area, although the process of adjustment does not appear to be complete.

Under this alternative,

interest rates would likely rise further in the weeks immediately ahead, and would rise by more than under alternative B over the longer run. Between now and the next Committee meeting, the 3-month commercial paper rate might move up to the 13 per cent area, the CD rate would adjust upward, and upward pressures on the prime loan rate would be very strong given these still higher market rates.

Inflows to thrift institutions

would be further curtailed, and the mortgage market--apart from Government support--would come under even greater constraint than at present. (14)

Under alternative A--which contemplates M1 growth at

a 7 per cent annual rate over the second half of the year--the Federal funds rate would be expected to decline to around 11 per cent between now and the next Committee meeting, probably stimulating a fairly marked decline of interest rates over a broad maturity spectrum.

Interest

rate declines would be intensified in the short run as market attitudes with respect to monetary policy shift and as Government security dealers begin to cover short positions.

However, given the size of prospective

borrowing demands and the concern over inflation, rate declines would

-11not be likely to cumulate.

For example, recently postponed municipal and

corporate offerings would probably be re-offered shortly under the circumstances, and this would tend to moderate downward rate pressures.

The

position of banks and thrift institutions would ease under this alternative, though remaining on the tight side as compared with historical experience, since an 11 per cent Federal funds rate implies a structure of market rates still quite attractive relative to present Regulation Q ceilings. (15)

The possibility of a credit crunch in financial markets

cannot be ignored, especially under alternative C.

Such a development

could be triggered by a series of failures of financial or industrial concerns, here or abroad.

This could lead to sharply higher rates and a

drying up of credit flows in markets where there is perceived to be heightened credit risk and to lower rates in safe markets, such as the Treasury securities market.

Many borrowers would not be able to obtain

credit, and some bank and other institutional to tap their usual sources of funds.

lenders would not be able

Under the circumstances, remedial

action by the System would be expected, either through the market or through the discount window.

As a result, whatever specifications are

adopted by the Committee would very likely have to be superseded, at least temporarily, by other operating criteria.

It should be recognized

in any event that the various specifications presented are more uncertain than usual since the situation in financial markets and the economy is unprecedented in the postwar period.

-12Proposed directive language (16)

Presented below are three alternative formulations

for the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section.

For all three alternatives, it is proposed

to include a reference to Treasury financing because the regular August refunding will be announced on July 31. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY REFUNDING AND OF developments in

domestic

and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: restrictive] prevailing the about maintain ACHIEVE

BANK RESERVE

that]CONSISTENT provided AND money market conditions [DEL:

WITH

GROWTH IN the monetary aggregates AT ABOUT THE RATES PREVAILING the within rates at growing be to appear OVER RECENT MONTHS [DEL: tolerance]. of ranges specified Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY REFUNDING AND OF developments in

domestic

and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: restrictive] prevailing the maintain

the] that provided AND money market conditions [DEL:

ACHIEVE BANK RESERVE

THAT WOULD

MODERATE GROWTH IN monetary aggregates OVER THE MONTHS AHEAD of ranges specified the within rates at growing be [DEL: appear to tolerance].

-13Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY REFUNDING AND OF developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to ACHIEVE BANK RESERVE

restrictive] prevailing the about maintain [DEL: the] that provided AND money market conditions [DEL:

THAT WOULD SLOW

APPRECIABLY THE GROWTH IN monetary aggregates OVER THE MONTHS AHEAD [DEL: ranges specified the within rates at growing be to appear of tolerance]. (17)

In the event that the Committee again wishes to couch

the operational paragraph of the directive in terms of prevailing money market conditions, the specifications of alternative C might be associated with the language used in the directive adopted at the last meeting-namely, that ".

. .the Committee seeks to maintain about the prevailing

restrictive money market conditions, provided that the monetary aggregates appear to be growing at rates within the specified ranges of tolerance."

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

CHART 1

7/12/74

RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

140

13%% growth

-138

1974 I

J 1973

I I

J 1974

SBreak in Series Actual Level of RPD After Changes in Reserve Requirements

CHART 2

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

7/12/74

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2

1973

1974

M 1974

CHART 3

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

7/12/74

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS

TOTAL RESERVES

A,^M

-4 34

k04 iii

1973 SBreak in series, Actual Level of Total Reserves After Changes in Reterve Requirements

~lI

I 1974

CHART 4

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES 13 80 13 34

INTEREST RATES

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Short-term

PERCENT 12

FEDERAL FUNDS

PERCENT - 13

INTEREST RATES Long-term

PERCENT 11

WEEKLY AVERAGES

WEEKLY

S-

S S1

EURO-DOLLARS

FHA MORTGAGES

3 MONTH

FNMA MONDAY AUCTION

Aaa

UTILITY

NEW ISSUE

F.R. DISCOL RATE

r GOVERNMENT BONDS 10-YEAR AVERAGES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

MUNICIPAL BOND BUYER

TREASURY BILLS 3 MONTH

THURSDAYS

PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 4 6 MONTH I9733 1973

1974

3OWEI 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1973

1 1 1 1 1 1.1 1 1 1 1974

174

1 17 1 1.1 1973

191741

1974

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

TABLE 1

JULY 12,

BANK RESERVES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS)

AGGREGATE RESERVES

I--------------------PERIOD

SEAS ADJ (1)

REOUIRED RESERVES

-----------------------------------------

RFSERVES AVAILABLE FOR

S PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS

1974

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SII----------------------------------------

I NON SEAS ADJ II I

(21

NONBORROWED I RESERVES I

PRIVATE PFMAND

13)

(4)

15)

35,902 36.523 36,723 (37,3961

34,166 33,933 33,717 134,367)

TOTAL RESERVES

OTHER TIME DEP 161

CD'S AND NCN DEP

GOV'T AND INTERBANK

(7)

(8)

4,416 5,031 5,411 ( 5,6141

2,242 2,253 19933 ( 2,265)

MONTHLY LFVELS-SMILLIONSI

------------- I I

1974--APR. MAY JUN. JUL. ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE ---- ---------- -----QUARTERLY:

33,660 34,270 34.790 (35,131)

33,743 34,086 34,434 (34,923)

20,411 20,341 20,360 (?0,435)

8,651 8,721 8,807 1 8,868)

1973--4TH OTR.

1.4

6.1

13.4

5.8

12.7

1974--1ST QTR. ?NO QTR.

6.2 20.2

1.7 20.3

1.5 1.0

1.3 1.8

9.2 7.1

MONTHLY: 1974--APR. MAY JUN. JUL.

19.7 21.7 18.2 11.8)

32.7 20.8 6.6 22.0)

7.1 -4.1 2.3 3.2)

-0.4 9.7 11.8 S 8.3)

15.1)

(

14.3)

JUN.-JUL.

10.0 -8.2 -7.6 (23.11 I

S 2.8)

7.7)

(

10.1)

WFEKLY LEVELS-SMILLInNS

JUN.

5 12

19 26 JUL. - ----

3 10

,-,,------ --

34,754 34,467 34,974 34,780

34,179 33,907 34,702 34,611

36,514 36,122 36,980 36,844

33,460 33,393 33,757 34,056

20,487 20,145 20,512 20,370

8,727 8,789 8,827 8,835

5,316 5,401 5,376 5,471

1,760 1,656 2,006 2,064

35,097 34,992

34,894 34,579

37,374 37*063

33,940 34,422

20,441 20,370

8,855 8853

5,503 5.552

2,277 2,072

--------- ------ -

-----

----- I------~

NOTE: DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF JUNE 16,1974 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD RANGE OF 10.0 TP 13.5 PERCENT FOR THE JUNE-JULY PERIOD.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

TABLE 2

JULY 12,

MONETARY AGGREGATES CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

(ACTUAL AND

---------------------------------- ----- ----- - ---------- - --- ------------- -- - ----- - --- --------- ---------MONEY SUPPLY BROAD ( NARROW (M2) I I(M1

I I

PFRIOP

----------------------------------- - -------(1)

(2)

I t

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

- ---------

II II

U.S. GOVT. DEPOSITS

--- I---

I I I

(5)

I NONDEPOSIT I SOURCES OF I FUNDS

- ------------- ------------

-- --- - --------

(4)

(3)

SAVINGS DEPOSITS TIME AN I I OTHER CD S I THAN CD S I TOTAL

(71

16)

MONTHLY LEVELS-SBILLIONS

--- -

1974--APP. MAY JUN. JUL.

PEPCENT ANNUAL GROWT --------------OUARTERLY

78.1 779.2 280.9 (282.1

7.1 6.8

I I

9. 7.6

JUN.

5 12 19 26

I I

281.2 280.9 281.5 280.4

I I

596.7 97.1 598.6 597.

3 P 10 PFI

281.? 286.9

598.4 9.6

487.6 485.8

NOTE:

I 0.8 22.6 16.1 (14.4)

I I

P4.1

I 317.2 3118.6

P PE -

10.6 10.1 0,7 10.4

81 l. 82.5 83.5

315.7 316.7 317.0 317.1

I I ----- ---------------

------------ ------

I I

I (10.3)

I 402.5 403.8

3.2 3.4

. 5.8 11.5 ( 9.1)

I I

DATA SH WN IN PARENTHFSES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

--- ------------------------------

I (15.4)

II I I ------1------------------- -------------- ---- -- - ------ - ------ -

397.6 398.7 400.5 401.2

3.7 4.7 3.5 3.3

481.9 482.5 482.9 482.9

If JUL.

9.6 10.7 10.3 (10.4)

12.5 .5

I I

II II

15.6 23.6

( o.P

( 8.?)

6.7

31.6 16.8 13.1 ( 6.5)

P.2 5.3 9.3 ( 7.2)

8.3 4.7 7.3 ( 5.1)

rI 8.5 20.8

II -----------------------

I 75.4 81.2 83.4 (85.9)

12.6

6.1

3.3

I I

II II

11.0

8.9

1074--1ST 0TR. 2Nn OTR.

WEEKLY LEVELS-SBILLINS

I 312.1 313.6 316.6 (319.0)

1973--4TH QTR.

JUN.-JUL.

I 387.4 94.7 400.0 (404.8)

-----

MONTHLY -----1974--APP. MAY JUN. JUL.

P 4.5 3.8 3.8 ( 2.4)

471.2 477.8 483.0 (485.61

590.2 592.8 597.4 (601.0)

I 85.3 81.2

10.7 10.3

I I ~-----------------------PRELIMINARY PARTIALLY ESTIMATED

--------------------------------------

1974

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) July 12, 1974

TABLE

RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) -

hills A .-._ A ccept.

Open Market Operations 1/ RP's Agency

gues

__I

gues

rI-*

Daily Average Reserve Effect 2/ Other 4/ Member A A..,-- i BD «1k F rt*- -

Open Market

Coupon

TrVrTA

(4)

(5)

, Ia

B I

a14.1

(7)

(6)

a~ _--- t_r Z. in reserve categories. STarget req. res. againsq available res.5/J available 5/ . a d

~ v ~ -\

(8)

ireslgvessi

(10)

(9)

(11)

Monthly 1973 --

Dec.

1,862

-831

1,386

1,336

-101

-759

Jan.

-397 -32 -64

-100 1,531

-328 71 1,780

1,031 9 -74

-254 143 166

790 653 -544

-485 1,111 -984

789 2,155 -1,115

922 1,970 -673

526 267 176 127 80

220 494 446 -2,609 3,808

939 761 622 -2,281 3,873

5 12 19 26

42 -370

-6,093 4,068 -1,007 1,740

3 10 17 24 31

292 58

-170 128

1974

Feb. March April 'Tay

utne

-70

546

475

698 -1,505 -358

773 -356 -323

702 -997 57

895 -875

362 866 419

-338 -2,239 27

173 207 -402

773 390 175

315 -130

1,103 483 454 86 -692

218 -540 360 1,111 517

-531 -364 -592 -1,258 -136

80 -24 497 145 -461

710 -397 -275 -206 150

-5,844 3,626 -1,007 1,434

-23 -1,892 1,829 825

-551 -325 494 -435

580 1,740 4 -1, 05p -582p

-201 -218 137? -101p

207 -259 7 81p 91 - p

603 484

197 46

646 -792

-170p 399p

390p -58p

83p - 89p

-30

July Aug. Weekly 1974 -

May 1

8 15 22 29 June

Jul,

-306

Irl

Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill Represents change in daily average level for preceding period. Inclides matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, Restrves to support private nonhank deposits. Target change for June and July reflects the target adopted at the Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were

auctions.

and other F.R. accounts. June 18, L974 FOMC meeting. adopted d uring the month.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL July 12, 1974 Table

(FR)

SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS Millions of dollars

U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Bills (1)

Period

Coupon Issues (2)

Dealer Positions Municipal Corporate Bonds Bonds (3) (4)

Excess** Reserves (5)

Member ,Bank Reserve Positions Basic. Reserve Deficit Borrowing at FRB** 38 Others 8 New York Total Seasonal (6) (7) (8) (9)

L973 --

High Low

1 3,796 897

1,299 -301

197 0

384 36

631 -240

2,561 688

163 3

-5,243 -1,831

-10,661 - 4,048

.9/, --

High Low

3,238 -289

2,203 -145

253 0

371 43

394 -83

3,605 776

142 13

-5,911 -2,447

-12,826 - 8,711

9,1 --

June

2,281

562

120

234

1,851

-3,507

- 6,443

July Aug. Sept.

1,425 1,690 2,745

265 39 395

24 0 6

139 70 80

285 177 216

1,953 2,165 1,852

155 163 148

-2,460 -2,689 -3,173

- 6,106 - 4,940 - 5,355

Oct. Nov Dec

2,565 2,804 3,441

484 793 973

44 90 105

226 148 276

227 239 307

1,476 1.393 1,298

126 84 41

-3,814 -4,469 -4,682

- 6,090 - 8,186 - 9,793

Jan. Feb. Mar

3,102 2,436 1,986

540 1,619 583

114 120 68

254 263 239

162 184 134

1,051 1,162 1,314

18 17 32

-4,753 -5,262 -5,030

-10,893 -10,769 -11,058

Apr. May June

1 435 408 *580

99 85 *9

39 142 66

78 83 124

182 178 192p

1,736 2,590 3,006p

40 102 135p

-3,952 -3,171 -4,445

-11,603 - 9,091 - 9,920

May 1 8 15 22 29

810 616 305 94 333

-15 -17 384 8 19

7 37 40 117 136

153 129 96 131 211

177 213 176 129 179

2,157 1,617 1,977 3,090 3,606

74 82 94 112 114

-2,967 -3,423 -4,002 -2,858 -2,447

5 12 19 26

1,031 1,110 * 778 * -289

12 76 * 29 *-45

50 185 29 0

98 100 127 171

225 131 2 8 5 p 104p

3,054 2,729 3,223p 2,788p

131 136 142p 133p

-3,521 -5,052 -4,803 -4,394

- 9,361 -10,333 - 9,946 - 9,347

126p 137p

-3,850p -4,301p

- 9,726p

974 --

June

July 3 10 17 24 NOTE:

* *

75 26

*-76 *-145

50 95p

0 70p

, 31___________ ______________

________.

298p 242p

3 4 4

, 3 p 6 2 2, 4 p

_________.-

.--

-___________

9,712 9,102 9,091 9,329 8,711

-10,089p

----- h

Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, wnicn excLude Treasury DILLS financed uy repurc ase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer posiThe basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal in syndicate, excluding trading positions. tions are debt issues still Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) JULY 12, 1974 Table

SELECTED INTEREST RATES Per cent

*11'-

4eirA

S--

Federal Funds Federa

(1)

Fu nd

10.84 5.61

1973 -- High

Low

__ Short-Term Treasury Bills 90-119 Day Commercial npaer 90-Day 1-Year I (4) 10.50 5.63

CD's New lssue-NYC 60-89 nav (5) 10.50 5.38

90-119 Day (6) 10.75 5.50

oeTr

Lone-Term

Aaa Utilty Recently New Issue Offered (7) 8.52 7.29

U S. Government Municipal (10-yr Constant Bond Buyer Maturity) ~ "' (10) (9) 5.59 7.54 4.99 6.42

FNMA Auction Yields II

(11)

9.37 7.69

1974 -- High Low

13.55 8.81

12.09 7.88

12.25 8.00

12.00 7.88

9.50 8.05

10.09 8.14

6.95 5.16

7.80 6.93

9.65 8.43

1973 -- June

8.49

8.00

7.98

8.13

7.64

5.18

6.90

8.07

July Aug Sept.

10.40 10.50 10.78

9.26 10.26 10.31

9.09 10.25 10.31

9.19 10.40 10.50

8.01 8.36 7.88

7.97 8.22 7.99

5.40 5.48 5.10

7.13 7.40 7.09

8.46 8.83 9.3?

Oct.

10.01 10.03 9.95

9.14 9.11 9.28

9.15 9.06 9.44

8.08 8.91 9.13

7.90 7.90 8.00

7.94 7.94 8.04

5.05 5.18 5.12

6.79 6.73 6.74

9.01 8.84 8.78

9.65 8.97 9.35

8.86 8.00 8.64

9.05 8.09 8.69

8.83 7.97 8.56

8.21 8.12 8.46

8.27 8.23 8.42

5.22 5.20 5.41

6.99 6.96 7 21

8.71 8 48 8 53

10 51 11.31 11.93

9.92 10 82 11.18

9.81 10.83 11.06

9.78 10.90 10.88

8.98 9.24 9.38

8.94 9.13 9.36

5.73

6.02 6.13

7 51 7.58 7.54

9 07 9 41 9.54

11.17 11.29 11.46 10.95 11.54

10.65 10.98 11.00 10 90 10 41

10.75 11.00 10.88 10.88 10.63

10.75 11.00 11.00 11.00 10.75

9.27 9.27 9.23 9.34 9.09

9.15 9.11 9.13 9.10 9 08

5.91 6.00 6.04 6.05 6.08

7.63 7.66 7.55 7.54 7.51

June 5 12 19 26

11.45 11.60 11.85 11.97

10.70 10.85 11.23 11.45

10.63 10.75 11.13 11.75

10.50 10.50 11.00 11.50

9.23 9.28 9.49 9.50

9.14 9.18 9.48 9.65

6.01 6.04 6.13 6.33

7.51 7.49 7.53 7.62

9.54

July 3 10 17 24 31

13.55 13.34

11.95 12.09

11.75 12.25

11.75 12.00

9.79

6.64 6.95

7.68 7.80p

9.65

10.25p

July 5

13.30 3 1 .43p

12.00 12 25

Nov

Dec. 1974 -- Jan.

Feb. Mar

Apr May June 1974

-- May

8 15 22 29

Daily

NOTrS

10. 9p

9.34 9.48

9.54

7.71 n.a.

Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7, 8 and 10 the Weekly data for columns I to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. it hi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages.

June 12,

1974

APPENDIX TABLE I RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES

RESERVES

MONEY STOCK

BANK CREDIT

MEASURES

MEASURES 'Total Loans Adjusted and InvestCredit menta Proxy

tvailable to support Non-

Period

Total

horo.e

(1)

(2)

ieposlts

M 1

M 2

M 3

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

jrivate

(7)

(8)

OTHER

Total time

Time other than CD

(9)

(10)

Thrift Institution De/ poits

CD's (12)

(11)

Nonponot. ps und (13)

Anottally: 1970 1971 1972 1973

+6.0 +7.2 +10.6 +7.8

+9.3 +7.8 +7.7 +7.2

+8.7 +6.9 +10.1 +9.3

+6.0 +8.4 +8.3 +8.2 +6.3 +11.2 +13.3 +9.4 +8.7 +11.1 +13.0 +11.6 +8.8 +10.6 +6.1 +8.9

+8.1 +11.2 +14.6 +13.5

+17.9 +18.2 +15.7 +16.0

+11.1 +16.7 +13.5 +11.4

+8.0 +17.1 +16.6 +8.6

+14.4 +7.7 +10.4 +19.4

Seani-Alnua2 lst Half 1972 2nd Half 1972

+10.8 +9.9

+11.0 +4.1

+8.3 +11.5

+7.7 +10.7 +12.4 +11.2 +9.4 +10.9 +12.8 +11.3

+13.6 +14.7

+15.4 +14.8

+13,8 +12.3

+15.7 +16.3

+4.4 +6.0

-0.2 +0.6

+6.7 +8.6

+1.6 +12.7

+10.3 +7.8

+7.7 +4.4

+13.8 +7.0

+16.6 +9.6

+20.8 +10.2

+10.4 +11.8

+10.7 +6.1

+18.6 +0.8

+1.2 +1.8

+13.2

+7.0

+14,9

+13.9

+20,1

+10,6

+6.6

+20,6

+2.9

+10,9

+1.3

guarterly: 1st Qtr. 1972 2nd Otr. 1972 3rd Qtr. 1972 4th Qtr. 1972

+8.7 +12.6 +4.4 +15.1

+9.1 +12.6 -0.9 +9.2

+9.6 +6.9 +10.4 +12.2

+10.5 +11.6 +10.2 +12.1

+15.7 +11.1 +13.0 +15.8

+14.5 +15.7 +14.3 +14.8

+15.5 +11.7 +12.7 +11.4

+15.9 +14.9 +17.8 +14.2

1st 2nd 3rd 4th

1973 1973 1973 1973

+6.4 +6.9 +10,6 +6.1

-3.6 +7.0 +11.3 +13.4

+7.8 +12.5 +16.2 +1.4

+14.6 +12.6 +10.5 +3.3

+19.9 +12.7 +12.7 +6.3

+22.7 +17.8 +14.0 +6.1

+9.9 +10.6 +10.6 +12.6

1st Qtr. 1974 2nd Qtr. 1974

+1.7 +20.3

+1.5 +1.0

+6.2 +20.2

+9.41 +8.5 +6.6 +20.8

+15.9 +11.5

+15.6 +23.6

+12.5 +8.5

NoAthly:L 1973--Jan. Teb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

+30.1 -21.1 +10.5 +14.7 +5.4 +0.5 +27.2 -5.1 +9.4 +12.1 -4.3 +10.5

+26.8 -38.5 +1.8 +20.1 +0.5 +0.2 +24.9 -13.5 +21.9 +26.7 -1.6 +14.4

+15.9 -2.9 +10.3 +10.0 +9.9 +17.3 +18.5 +10.1 +13.3 +1.0 -6.3 +9.4

+17.8 +23.7 +17.2 +13.1 +16.6 +8.2 +14.5 +18.2 +5.2 +7.7 +7.4 +3.6

1974--Jan. Teb. Mar. Apr. May June p

+35.7 -24.8 -5.4 +32.7 +20.8 +6.6

+45.9 -80.4 -10.0 +19.0 -8.2 -7.6

+6.9 -0.3 +11.9 +19.7 +21.7 +18.2

+14.7 +15.5 +16.8 +16.0 +10.2 +7.8

+9.9 +7.6

S-8.4 -7.6 +0.4 +3.0

+0.7 +3.7 +2.4 +3.6

-0.3 +0.1

+11.4 +9.7 +4.6 +7.6

+11.2 +7.4 +4.7 -3.9

+0.5 +0.7 +1.7 +0.1

+8.6 +4.6

+4.9 +15.7

+1.2 +1.7

+16.5 +22.3 +28.2 +22.5 +18.8 +11.2 +12.8 +18.9 +9.8 +3.7 +3.3 +11.3

+13.7 +11.6 +8.7 +9.0 +9.4 +10.4 +7.3 +2.3 +4.2 +6.8 +7.2 +8.6

+1.3 +4.4 +5.5 +3.8 +2.9 +0.7 +1.9 +2.4 +0.4 -2.9 -1.8 +0.8

+0.6

+21.8 +15.2 +9.3 +30.8 +22.6 +16.1

+8.6 +7.8 +9.2 +6.6 +2.5 +4.7

+2.7 +1.1 +1.1 +7.7 +5.8 +2.2

+0.1 +0.2 +0.9 +1.0 +1.1 -0.4

derived by averaging Growth rates are based on estimated monthly average levels month reported data. Reserve Requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. Preliminary.

ROTE: p -

+7.1 +6.8

(14)

(Dollar Change in Billions)

(Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth)

Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr.

Go Demad

end

16,

1969,

current month

+0.3

-0.5 +0.4 +0.2 +0.3 +0.2 +0.9 +0.6 +0.2

-0.4 +0.2 +0.3

and end of previous

and requirements

on bank-related

APPENDIX TABLE II RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES (Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars)

R___ESERVES Period

Total

Available to Support NonPvt. borrowed Depoaits

MONEY STOCK MEASURES _ M 1 Pvt. Total Dep. 2 M3

"IEIRIT Total Adj. Loans & Credit InvestProxy ments

Jul

12,1974

Tie Other Than CD'a

OTHER Thrift Intitution Deposits

CD's

(10)

(11)

(12)

(13)

(14)

(15)

Total Time

NonU.S. Dep. Cov't Funds peman

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

AU1AL LY: Dec. 1970 Dec. 1971 Dec. 1972

29,193 31,299 31,410

28,861 31,173 30,360

27,099 28,965 29,053

221.2 235.2 255.7

172.2 182.6 198.7

425.2 473.0 525.5

642.7 727.9 822 8

332.9 364.3 406.4

438.5 487.6 559.0

229.2 270.9 313.3

203.9 237.9 269.9

217.5 254.8 297.2

25.3 33.0 43.4

11.6 4.0 4.4

6.5 6.1 6.1

MONTHLY: 1973--Jan. Feb. Mar.

32,199 31,634 31,910

31,037 30,040 30,085

29,439 29,368 29,621

256.7 257.9 258.1

199.6 200.4 200.1

529.6 532.4 534.7

830.2 835.8 840.4

409.7 413.5 421.2

567.3 578.5 586.8

317.6 323.6 331.2

272.9 274.5 276.6

300.6 303.5 305.7

44.7 49.1 54.6

5.0 4.5 4.9

6.7 6.1 7.6

Apr. May June

32,300 32,445 32.459

30,589 30,602 30,608

29,867 30,114 30,548

259 4 262.4 265.5

200.8 203.4 206.2

538.4 543.7 549.5

846.4 854.1 862.6

426.6 430.5 434.5

593.2 601.4 605.5

337.4 342.7 345.9

278.9 281.4 283.9

308.0 310.4 313.1

58.4 61.3 62.0

5.1 5.4 5.6

7.1 5.2 5.3

July Aug. Sept.

33,576 33,906 34,173

31,622 31,741 32,321

31,358 32,038 32,394

266.4 266.3 265.5

206.9 206.4 205.3

552.1 555.1 556.8

867.1 870.7 873.5

437.6 443.8 445.9

612.8 622.1 624.8

349.6 355.1 358.0

285.7 288.8 291.4

315.0 315.6 316.7

63.9 66.3 66.7

6.5 7.1 7.3

3.9 4.8 5.0

Oct. Nov. Dec.

34,942 34,857 35,105

33,466 33,463 33,807

32,845 32,714 32,912

266.6 269.2 271.4

206.1 208.2 209.7

561.9 567.3 572.1

880.3 887.7 894.8

446.5 447.5 449.6

628.8 632.7 634.6

359.1 360.1 363.5

295.3 298.1 300.6

318.5 320.4 322.7

63.8 62.0 62.8

6.9 7.1 7.4

6.0 5.8 4.9

1974--Jan. Feb. Mar.

35,850 35,108 34,949

34,799 33,916 33,634

32,799 32,791 33,117

270.8 273.7 276.2

208.9 211.1 212.9

575.4 581.9 586.2

900.4 909.0 915.8

454.3 454.8 459.1

642.4 650.7 659.8

370.1 374.8 377.7

304.6 308.2 310.0

325.0 327.1 329.6

65.5 66.6 67.7

7.3 7.7 8.6

6.2 3.0 3.7

Apr. May June

35,902 36.523 36,721

34,166 33,933 33,717

33,660 34,270 34,790

278.1 279.2 280.9

214.1 214.8 216.0

590.2 592.8 597.4

921.5 924.9 930.9

471.2 477.8 483.0

668.6 674.3 678.7

387.4 394.7 400.

312.1 313.6 316.6

331.4 332.1 333.4

75.4 81.2 83.4

9.6 10.7 10.3

4.5 3.8 3.8

3 10 17 24

35,398 35,040 36,161 36,003

33,895 33,846 34,345 34,064

33,240 33,117 33,794 33,722

277.5 277.7 280.1 277.8

214.1 213.6 216.0 213.9

588.1 589.3 592.3 590.2

-----

466.3 468.4 472.9 471.8

-----

382.0 385.4 387.0 389.2

310.5 311.5 312.2 312.3

-----

71.5 73.9 74.8 76.9

9.5 9.3 9.4 9.7

4.8 5.0 5.0 4.0

May

1 8 15 22 29

36.742 36,385 36,572 36,659 36,447

34,585 34,768 34,595 33,569 32,841

34,277 34,151 34,104 34,250 34,434

276.8 278.6 279.5 280.6 278.1

213.0 214.1 215.1 216.0 213.5

589.6 591.3 593.1 593.9 592.5

------

473.8 476.4 476.6 478.5 78.4

390.8 392.4 394.2 395.2 396.9

312.8 312.7 313.6 313.3 314.4

------

78.0 79.7 80.6 82.0 82.5

10.2 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.0

4.4 5.3 3.3 3.2 3.0

June

5 12 19P 26 P

36,514 36,122 36,980 36,844

33,460 33,393 33,757 34,056

34,754 34,467 34.974 34,780

281.2 280.9 281.5 280.4

216.7 216.0 216.7 215.6

July

37,374

33,940

35,097

281.2

216.3

596.9 597.2 598.6 597.4 598.4

------

481.9 482.5 82.9 482.9 487.6

397.6 398.7 400.5 401.2 402.5

315.7 316.2 317.0 317.1 317.2

-----

81.9 82.5 83.5 84.1 85.3

10.6 10.1 9.7 10.4 10.7

3.7 4.7 3.5 3.3 3.2

WEEKLY: 1974--April

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

monthly average leels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous onth reported data. / tiated NOTE: Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, beak-related commercial paper and Eurodollar borrowings of U.S. banks. Weekly data are daily averages for statamaent weeks. Monthly data are daily averages except for nofbank commercial paper figures which are for last day of month. Weekly data are not available for M 3 , total loans and investments and thrift institution deposits. p - Preliminary.

Appendix Table III

Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate) M1

1972

1973

9.0

5.3

6.2

8.2

III

8.7

8.2

9.9

8.4

3.8

7.0

8.8

11.5

7.5

11.1

8.8

5.6

5.3

7.9

5.1

7.5

8.9

4.5

11.0

8.9

9.8

7.9

7.1

9.9

9.4

6.8

7.6

8.5

6.6

7.7

III

1974

12.3

11.0

13.5

12.5

8.9

9.8

11.0

11.7

10.8

13.3

13.0

10.6

10.2

12.0

12.2

8.6

10.2

10.6

9.0

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. t = annual races calculated from dverage levels in all ch-ee months of the quarters.

Appendix Table IV

Growth Rates in Money Supply for Alternatives

M3 Q

Alt. A 1974

III IV III & IV Combined

6.1 8.0 7.0

6.2 7.5 6.8

7.7 8.4 8.0

6.7 7.2 7.0 Alt.

1974

III IV III & IV Combined

5.0 6.2

5.4 5.8

5.6

6.3 6.5 6.4

6.7 7.1 6.9

7.0 6.4 6.7 Alt. C

1974

III IV III & IV Combined

4.1 3.9 4.0

5.0 4.0 4.5

5.2 4.7 5.0

6.5 4.6 5.5

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in last month of the quarters, Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

Appendix Table V Money Supply Growth Rates

M1 1973

M 1 less Foreign Official Deposits and Deposits due to Foreign Commercial Banks

January

4.7

5.2

5.3

February

5.6

6.7

March

0.9

0.5

0.9

April

6.0

6.5

6.6

May

13.9

13.0

11.8

June

14.2

14.7

14.4 2.8

4.1

3.6

August

-0.5

September

-3.6

-3.7

5.0

5.5

4.6

July

October November

1974

M1 less Foreign Official Deposits

11.7

10.9

10.1

December

9.8

9.9

8.2

January

-2.7

-3.6

February

12.9

12.5

13.1

March

11.0

11.9

11.2

April

8.3

5.7

5.8

May

4.7

6.5

5.7

June

7.3

5.6

5.3

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1974, July 15). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19740716

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19740716,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1974},
  month = {Jul},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19740716},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}