bluebooks · September 9, 1974

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

(CONFIDENTIAL

FR)

September 6, 1974

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee

By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

September 6, 1974

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M1 grew at an annual rate of about 3.0 per cent in August, somewhat above the very low July rate but short of the 4.7 per cent indicated at the last Committee meeting.

Fragmentary data for early As a result,

September suggest that a sizable shortfall is continuing.

M 1 growth for August and September combined now appears to be running at only a 2.6 per cent annual rate, below the low end of the Committee's range of tolerance, as shown in the table, while growth of M 2 is close to

the low end of its range. Growth of Monetary Aggregates and RPD's in Aug.-Sept. Period Reserve and Monetary Aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent)

Range of Tolerance

Latest Estimates

4¾-6¾

2.6

5½-7½

5.8

RPD's

7¾-9¾

8.8

11½-12½

Avg. for statement week ending 12.31 Aug. 21 11.84 Aug. 28

Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

Sept. 4 (2)

11.64

As evidence of weakness in the aggregates emerged, the

Account Management supplied reserves more readily, expecting the Federal funds rate to move into the lower half of the Committee's 11½-12½ per cent

range of tolerance.

The funds rate averaged 11.84 per cent and 11.64 per

cent, respectively, in the 2 full statement weeks since the last meeting. Member banks showed a greater willingness to borrow in this period, and borrowings (apart from Franklin) averaged $2.2 billion, up about $400 million from the average in the previous four weeks. (3)

Net changes in short-term interest rates have been relatively

minor since the last Committee meeting, although quotes on both Treasury bills and large bank CD's have moved over a rather wide range.

Bill rates

rose sharply early in the period, with the bid quote on the 3-month issue moving to a record 9¾ per cent, as the Treasury was in process of raising a sizable amount of new cash through additions to the supply of bills. Subsequently, with the Federal funds rate continuing to edge lower, bill rates turned down again, and most recently, the 3-month issue has traded around 9.25 per cent.

Bank CD rates also moved up early in the inter-

meeting period when a number of institutions were seeking to expand CD volume in anticipation of large September maturities, but since then they have dropped to levels close to those prevailing at the time of the last

meeting.

Announcement on September 4 of the Board action eliminating the

3 per cent marginal reserve requirement on large longer maturity bank CD's was interpreted by the market as evidence that monetary policy has become slightly less restrictive. (4)

Long-term debt markets remained under pressure during

most of the inter-meeting period, with yields in most areas tending to edge a little higher.

Contributing to this pressure were large current

and prospective borrowings by Government sponsored agencies that support

housing.

While some renewed problems developed in the placement and

distribution of new corporate and municipal security issues, the degree of difficulty appears to be less than in early July.

Mortgage rates

continued to rise, as deposit inflows to thrift institutions were severely constrained. (5)

The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual

rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various recent time periods.

Appendix table III compares money supply growth rates

computed on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a last-monthof-quarter basis.

Projected figures on the two bases are shown in appendix

table IV for the three alternatives presented in the next section.

Past Three

Past Twelve

Past Six

Calendar Years 1971

Months Aug. '74

over

1973

Aug. '73

Feb. '74

Total reserves

8.5

9.9

12.3

8.2

-4.9

Nonborrowed reserves

7.6

6.9

0.1

-6.5

8.8

10.4

15,7

12.8

10.9

7.0

5.4

5.6

4.2

3.0

10.4

8.5

7.2

7.6

6.6

11.7

7.6

6.2

5.8

4.6

Total member banks deposits 10.5 (bank credit proxy adj.)

10,3

15.2

9.6

5.9

12.8

11.3

12.8

10,7

10.0

1.0

1.5

3.0

3.4

-.8

Average of Past Three

Past

Month Months Aug. '74 Aug. '74 over

over

May '74 July '74

Reserves available to support

private nonbank deposits Concepts of Money M1 (currency plus demand

deposits) 1/ M2 (M plus time deposits at commercial banks

other than large CD's) M 3 (M, plus deposits at

thrift institutions) Bank Credit

Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions)

Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper

-.1

1.5

11 Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on average of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (6)

Summarized below for Committee consideration are three

alternative policy courses, with more detail presented in the table on

the following page. Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Targets (Balance of 1974 and 1st qtr. of 1975)

5¼

5¾

6½

6¾

5½

Credit proxy

6 4¾

Associated ranges of tolerance for Sept.-Oct.

3¾-5¾

3¼-5¼

2¾-4¾

5¾-7¾

5-7

4½-6½

RPD

7¼-9¼

6-8

5-7

Federal funds rate (inter-meeting period)

9¼-11¼

10-12

10¾-12¾

(7) The alternative longer-run targets for growth rates in the aggregates cover a seven-month period that encompasses the balance of 1974 (September and the fourth quarter) and the first quarter of 1975. It was assumed that the Committee would wish to continue looking ahead about two quarters in establishing its longer-run targets.

However, at

this time, if the targeted growth rates covered only the fourth and first quarters, they would be based on September levels that are almost wholly projected and subject to very considerable error since there are virtually no hard data yet available for that month.

Since the August figures

would provide a more reliable base, the alternative longer-run targets

-5aAlternative Longer-Run Targets for Key Monetary Aggregates

1974

1975

Alt. A

M1 Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

AltA Alt, A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Aug. Sept. Oct.

280.7 281.4 282.9

280.7 281.3 282.7

280.7 281.2 282.5

60 2.2 60)5.1 609.0

602.2 604.8 608.3

6 02.2 6 04.7 6 07.8

936.6 940.9 946.5

936.6 939.8 944.0

936.6 939.2 942.4

Dec.

286.4

285.9

285.4

61.7.4

615.9

6 14.4

957.1

952.7

949.5

Mar.

291.4

290.2

289.3

6310.4

626.6

6 23.2

973.5

965.0

959,4

6.5

5.8

5.3

8.0

6.9

6.0

6.8

5.2

4.2

2.6 7.1 7.0

2.4 6.5 6.0

2.3 6.0 5.5

6.0 8.1 8.4

5.8 7.3 6.9

5.7 6.4 5.7

5.0 6.9 6.9

4.6 5.5 5.2

4.3 4.4

3.0 6.4

2.6 6.0

2.1 5.5

5.8 7.7

5.2 6.9

5.0 6.2

5.5 7.1

4.1 5.4

3.3 4.1

RPD Alt. B

Alt. C

Rates of Growth Aug. '74--Mar. '75 Quarters: 1974 3rd Q.

4th Q. 1975

1st Q.

4.2

Months: Sept. Oct.

1974

Adjusted Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C

Total Reserves Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C

Alt. A

489.3 493.0 495.5

489.3 492.8 494.6

37,269 37,328 37,696

37,269 37,304 37,625

37,269 37,282 37,555

35,365 35,446 35,451

35,365

Oct.

489.3 493.3 496.3

35,422 35,381

35,365 35,400 35,311

Dec.

500.3

499.0

497.4

38,151

38,034

37,895

35,819

35,703

35,566

Mar.

508.3

505.4

502.9

38,213

37,999

37,794

36,118

35,905

35,701

Aug.

Sept.

1975

Aug. '74--Mar. '75 Quarters: 1974 3rd Q.

4th Q. 1975

1st Q.

Rates of Growth 5.2

6.7

5.6

4.8

6.2

8.4 5.7 6.4

8.2 4.9 5.1

8.0 3.7 4.4

8.2 11.3 0.6

9.8 7.3

9.1 6.1

8.6 4.4

7.1 19.5

4.3

5.6

4.6

3.6

8.0 10.4 -0.4

7.7 9.1 -1.1

9.3 6.9 3.3

9.0 5,9 2.2

8.8 4.6 1.5

6.3 18.0

5.6 16.4

8.2 8.3

7.4 6.7

6.6 5.1

Months:

Sept. Oct.

are shown for a seven-month period including September.

As may be seen

from the chart on the following page, the level of M1 in August reflects a 5.2 per cent annual rate of growth thus far this year; since this is reasonably consistent with recent Committee desires, the August level is not unreasonable as a base for formulating longer-run targets. (8)

Alternative C involves a 5¼ per cent growth rate for

M1 over the target period and assumes money market conditions about unchanged from those recently prevailing.

Because of the shortfalls

in M 1 in July and August, such a growth rate measured from August would imply lower levels of M1 in coming months than were implicit in the longer-run target (of 5¼ per cent for the second half of 1974) that was adopted at the August Committee meeting.

Alternative B con-

templates a 5¾ per cent growth rate for M1 from now on.

Such a growth

rate would compensate for recent shortfalls by early spring of next year--i.e., by early spring of 1975, the rate of increase in M1 measured from mid-1974 would be around 5¼ per cent.

The more rapid

6½ per cent growth rate for M 1 contemplated under alternative A would almost make up for the recent shortfall by year-end.

(9) The 5¼ per cent growth path for M1 of alternative C is expected to be consistent with a Federal funds rate range centering

MONEY SUPPLY AND LONGER RUN TARGET PATHS

RATIO SCALE. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

A=6 1 2% Growth B=5%% Growth C=51/% Growth RATE OF GROWTH DEC. '73 TO AUG '74

5.2%

J 1974

F 1975

on 11¾ per cent, which is close to the rate that has prevailed on average since the last meeting.

Over the two month September-October

period M 1 growth would be expected to be in a 2¾-4¾ per cent, annual rate, range.

The expectation of a continued relatively low growth

rate over the near-term in part reflects the weakness in the fragmentary information thus far available for the early days of September, a period when a substantial recovery in growth had earlier been expected. M 1 growth is projected to pick up in October, with growth more rapid over the fourth quarter as a whole, since transactions demands for cash are assumed to strengthen if the staff forecast for about a 7 per cent annual rate of growth in nominal GNP is realized. (10)

With money market conditions assumed to be essentially

unchanged under this alternative, little further net change in market interest rates generally would be expected between now and the next Committee meeting.

The volume of new issues expected in corporate and

municipal bond markets is fairly heavy over the week immediately ahead, but no new Treasury cash borrowing is anticipated until later in the year.

In the mortgage market, rates have already adjusted upward sub-

stantially, and reduced demands for mortgage credit may limit further

-8upward rate adjustments.

However, the spread between corporate bond

yields and mortgages is still unfavorable to the latter, and high shortterm market interest rates would be expected to continue diverting savings from banks and thrift institutions to market instruments. (11)

Given the market interest rates assumed under alternative

C, growth in savings deposits at thrift institutions would be expected to remain barely positive, while net inflows of time deposits other than money market CD's to banks would be expected to expand at a modest pace. Banks have reduced reliance on money market CD's recently, and growth in these instruments over the months ahead would probably be slower than earlier in the year as bank loan growth is projected to abate somewhat.

The reduced rate of expansion in economic activity is likely to

temper bank credit demands, although the needs of borrowers under liquidity pressure could remain substantial.

The recent Board action

to remove the marginal reserve requirement on large time deposits maturing in four months or more is assumed to have a marginal effect on the structure of CD's issued by banks, but to have an insignificant effect on the total amount of CD's issued. (12)

Adoption of the somewhat higher 5¾ per cent growth rate

of alternative B would be expected to entail a further decline in the

-9Federal funds rate over the next few weeks to around 11 per cent, the center of the 10-12 per cent range shown for this alternative.

Growth of M1 in the

September-October period in a 3¼-5¼ per cent annual rate range might be anticipated.

Growth over the fourth and first quarters would be con-

siderably higher--around 6-6

per cent, annual rate--to compensate for

the marked weakness expected in September.

The stimulative impact of

the easing in money market conditions on money demand would be felt mainly in the fourth and first quarters; subsequently growth in M1 could be expected to drop back to around the 5¾ per cent rate. (13)

If the funds rate were to decline to 11 per cent over

the next few weeks, other rates would be likely to decline rather sharply on expectational grounds.

Rate declines would probably be larger than

justified by the stance of monetary policy and the likely strength of credit demands, if our nominal GNP forecast is correct.

Thus interest

rates would probably readjust upward to some degree as time goes on. Between now and the next Committee meeting the 3-month bill rate would be mostly in a 7¾-8¾ per cent range.

A very modest recovery in savings

flows at banks and thrift institutions might develop, and mortgage market rates would be under less pressure. (14)

Alternative A presents a more expansive policy alternative,

characterized by a 6

per cent long-run rate of growth in M1 and a

greater near-term decline in the Federal funds rate.

Expectational effects

on markets would be quite strong, and market interest rates generally could be expected to decline rather sharply.

Improvement in the position

of thrift institutions would be rather marked, and mortgage rates, after

-10some time, may begin to decline.

Banks could expand CD offerings over

the near-term to obtain funds for investment in longer-term market securities while high yields on the securities are still available. (15)

It was assumed in the preceding discussion that if the

Committee adopts alternative

B or A, it would want to have the money

market conditions expected to be consistent with the higher growth rates for M 1 established between now and the next meeting.

However, the

Committee may wish to phase in any easing of market conditions over a longer period, particularly under alternative A.

Thus, the funds rate

could be permitted to decline in the inter-meeting period by less than implied by the mid-points of the ranges shown in the summary table of paragraph (6), in the expectation that some further decline would be sought later.

If staff estimates of relationships between interest

rates and monetary aggregates are correct, however, under such a procedure achievement of the indicated targets for the aggregates would require a somewhat larger total decline in the funds rate than if the move were accomplished quickly.

For example, under alternative A, a

drop in the funds rate to 10¾ per cent over the next five weeks, followed by a further decline to around 10 per cent by mid-November, could be envisaged.

-11Proposed directive (16)

Presented below are three alternative formulations for

the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section.

As will be noted, alternative A refers to the

rate of growth in monetary aggregates "over recent months."

Over the

second quarter and the first 2 months of the third quarter, growth rates were 4.8 and 7.1 per cent for M 1 and M2, respectively. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market moderate] growth in conditions consistent with A HIGHER RATE OF[DEL: ahead] months the over monetary aggregates [DEL:

THAN HAS PREVAILED

OVER RECENT MONTHS. Alternative B

To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead.

-12Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with MODEST[DEL: moderate] growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead.

CHART 1

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

9/6/74

RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

for August-September

growth

-134

r J

1973 *Break

1974

n Series Actual Level of RPD After Changes in Reserve Requirements

I J

I A 1974

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

CHART 2

9/6/74

MONETARY AGGREGATES OW MONEY SUPPLY M1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 290

290

270

285

S6%% growth for Aug -Sept.

4%% growth 2

280

DER MONEY SUPPLY M2 -

(9/4/74)

-275 -

610

-600 77%% growth for Aug -Sept

605 580

/2%growth 5% (9/4/74)

S600

560

595 540

- 590

1973

1974

A 1974

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL(FR) 9/6/74

CHART 3

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 550

520

480

460

430

____I

TOTAL RESERVES

I I I 44

1973 *Break in series Actual Leveicf Total Reserves After Chanses in Reserve Reouirements

1874

CHART 4

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES INTEREST RATES

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

PERCENT -12

Short-term

PERCENT 13

WEEKLY AVERAGES

INTEREST RATES Long-term WEEKLY

FEDERAL FUNDS RATE -

FHA MORTGAGES

EURO-DOLLARS

FNMA MONDAY AUCTION

3 MONTH

Aaa UTILITY NEW ISSUE

F.R DISCOUNT

RATE

GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YEAR AVERAGES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

RESERVES BORROWED

3.A/ 3

I-

7 MUNICIPAL BOND BUYER

TREASURY BILLS 3 MONTH

1973

THURSDAYS

1974

1973

1974

PER CENT 1 11

TABLE

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

SEPTEMBER

BANK RESERVES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS)

RESERVES AVAILABLE FOR S PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS

PERIOD I

MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONSI ---------------) 1974--JUN. I JUL. AUG. SEP. ANNUAL RATES OF

(1) (1)

34,795 35,047 (35,3651 (35,560)

I NON SEAS ADJ I 1

(2) (2)

34,439 34,840 (35,0531 135,375)

1974

REQUIRED RESERVES I AGGREGATE RESERVES II II -------------------------------------------------------SEASONALLY ADJUSTED f

SI------------------------------------------------------------------------SEAS ADJ

TOTAL RESERVES

II 11

NONBORROWFD RESERVES

(3) (3

36,731 37,421 (37,269) (37,442)

(4) (4)

33,725 34,120 (33,9331

(33.974)

I I I

----------

--- PRIVATE DEMAND

OTHER TIME DEP (6) (6)

(5) (5)

20,379 20,449 (20,405) (20,4561

8,807 8,866 I 8,997) ( 9,072)

CD'S AND NON DEP

GOVT AND INTERBANK

(7) (7)

18 181

5,411 5,570 ( 5.737) I 5,840)

1,936 2,374 ( 1,904) ( 1,882)

2,282 2,108 2,721 2,581 2,124

CHANGE

-----------

QUARTERLY: 1973--4TH QTR.

1.4

6.1

13.4

5.8

12.7

1974--1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD OTR.

6.2 20.3 8.81

1.7 20.4 7.7)

1.5 1.1 S 3.0)

1.3 1.7 ( 1.51

9.2 7.1 S12.0)

18.4 8.7 10.9) 6.6)

6.8 22.5 -4.9) 5.6)

-7.4 1 (

2.2 4.1 -2.6) 3.0)

11.P

14.1 -6.6) 1.4)

8.81

0.3)

(

-2.6)

0.2)

(

MONTHLY: 1974--JUN. JUL. AUG. SEP. AUG.-SEP.

8.0 (

17.7)

(

10.0)

(

13.9)

WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLICNS

-----------------

I JUL.

AUG.

3 10 17 24 31

35,164 34,994 35,107 34,847 35,191

34,961 34,583 34,891 34,756 35,079

37,446 37,102

7 28

35,243 35,279 35,401 35,363

35,772

14 21

SEP.

20,437 20,316 20,674 20,326 20,483

8,854 8,848 8,P41 8,882 8,898

5,503

37,428 37,315

34,011 34,462 34,653 33,787 33,625

34,925 34,952 35,058 35,098

37,101 37,112 37,412 37.311

34,012 34,072 33,975 33,778

20,346 20,392 20,447 20,399

8,942 8,989 8,996 9,040

5,727 5,753 5,694

5,742

1,858 1,833 2,011 1,948

35,473

37,600

33,693

20,490

9,042

5,807

1,828

37,828

5,552 5,607 5,524 5,625

NOTE: DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF AUG. 20, 1974, THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD RANGE OF 7.75 70 9.75 PERCENT FOR THE AUGUST-SEPTEMBER PERIOD.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

TABLE 2

SEPTEMBER

MONETARY AGGREGATES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

I I I

PERIOD

MONEY SUPPLY BROAD I NARROW I IM21 (Ml) (1)

MONTHLY LEVELS-SBILLIONS

-I-----

------

I I

1974--JUN. JUL. AUG. SEP.

--------QUARTERLY

I 8.9

1974--1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD OTR.

5.6 6.4 (2.3)

U.S. GOVT. DEPOSITS

483.1 486.9 (489.3) (492.8)

II II

I I

TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS I OTHER I CD S I THAN CD S I TOTAL

(6)

(5)

I I I

NONDEPOSIT SOURCES OF FUNDS

(8)

S 316.5 319.0 (321.51 (323.5)

399.9 404.3 (406.2) (408.8)

(7)

I 3.7 2.5 ( 5.3) ( 6.7)

(4)

83.3 5.4 184.6) (85.3)

10.3 11.2 1 (10.61 (11.0)

1973--4TH OTR.

(3)

(2)

596.2 598.9 (602.2) (604.7)

----

ADJUSTED II II CREDIT II PROXY

I 279.6 280.0 (280.7) (281.2)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH

- - --

I I I

11.0

3.3

9.0 7.7 ( 5.7)

8.5 20.9 8.0)

I I

6.1

12.6

15.4 23.7 ( 8.9)

12.2 8.7 (8.8)

MONTHLY 1974--JUN. JUL. AUG. SEP.

WEEKLY

AUG.-SEP.

LEVELS-SBILLIONS

---------------------JUL.

AUG.

--- -

--------

2.6)

( 5.8)

601.5 602.7 602.4 602.1

603.0

16.7 13.2 ( 5.6) ( 7.7)

12.3 9.5 (9.4) ( 7.5)

( 6.7)

(

3.1 3.3 2.1 2.1 2.3

402.4 403.2 404.0 405.2 405.9

317.4 318.5

85.0 84.7

10.7 10.4

318.5

85.4

10.8

319.3 320.3

85.9 85.6

12.1 11.7

4.0 5.0 5.8 6.1 6.0 6.0

405.5 406.2 406.0 406.4 407.6 407.6

320.6 321.5 321.4 322.2

84.9 84.7 84.6 84.2

11.0 9.8 10.5 11.1

( 7.3)

281.0 281.2 281.0 279.8 ISEP. 280. 4 280.5 4 PEI

13.3 9.4 ( 5.9) ( 8.6)

I 598.1 597.8 599. 598.5 599.6

7 14 21 28 P

10.6 5.4 ( 6.6) ( 5.0)

280.8 279.3 280.9 279.2 279.2

3 10 17 24 31

SEP.

7.8 1.7 ( 3.0) ( 2.1)

487.9 485.3 486.2 487.0 487.7 488.8 488.6 489.6 489.3 490.9 490.9

I I1 I

1I II

I I

--- ' ------ " "-------------------------

~"""~"~'~

-------

--------""

11.0

85.1

322.5

- ' - -'' - - "---------- - - - -"- - -" - '- - - - - - -------------------------------- - - - - NOTE: DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

---------------

8.5)

" " " -" "' P - PRELIMINARY PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATED "

"~"

"~~

1974

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL SEPTEMBER

(FR)

6, 1974

TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted)

Open Market Operations Bills & Accept. (1)

Coupon Issues

Agency Issues

(2)

(3)

Daily Average Reserve Effect 2/

RP's Net 3

TOTAL

(4)

(5)

Open Market Operations

Member Borrowing

Other 4/ Factors

(6)

(7)

(8)

in reserve categories

req. res. against available res. 5/ U.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) (9)

are available reserves

(10

(11)

Monthly 1974--Feb March

-32 -64

30 190

74 122

-1,531

71 1,780

9 -74

143 166

-1,505 -358

-356 -323

-997 57

-875 -30

April May June

790 653 -544

172 207 176

312 185 237

-485 1,111 -984

789 2,155 -1,115

922 1,970 -673

362 866 420

-338 -2,239 74

173 207 -400

773 390 221

315 -130

July Aug. Sept.

898 862

125 --

726 235

-3,760 2,225

-2,011 3,322

1,601 141

309

-901

471

538

3 10 17 24 31

292 58 288 446 1

176 -125 --- 305 298 291 145 -3

-170 128 -426 -72 -3,787

603 484 278 518 -3,789

197 46 811 -469 -195

647 -795 535 466 49

-106 343 -390 -404 -67

7 14 21 28

66 -138 881 567

-----

-3 ----

366 1,820 1,232 -4,768

430 1,682 2,113 -4,200

-589 -161 2,003 -145

-601 -49 397 96

906 231 2 - ,155p 6 2 p

p -5p 139p -151p

-518

221

5,742

5,446

373

-154p

-100p

3 5

Oct. Weekly 1974--July

Aug

Sept

383 -28 648 -272 -536 130

355 -378 308 -135 323 -154p 26p 1 6 0 p 40p 37

18 25 / 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/

Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. Represents change in daily average level for preceding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R accounts. Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for Aug. and Sept. reflects the target adopted at the Aug. 20, 1974 FOMC meeting. Target change for previous months reflect the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL SEPTEMBER

(FR)

1974

TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS Millions of dollars

U S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions

Period

SCorporate Bills

Coupon Issues

Dealer Positions Municipal Bonds Bonds

_Member

Excess** Reserves

. Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit Total Seasonal 8 New York 38 Others

(1)

(2)

1973--High Low

3,796 897

1,299 -301

2,561 688

-5,243 -1,831

-10,661

1974--High L6w

3,238 -289

2,203 -309

3,906 776

-5,911 -2,447

-12,826

1973--Aug Sept

1,690 2,745

39 395

2,165

-2,689 -3,173

- 4,940 - 5,355

2,565 2,804 3,441

484 793 973

1,476

-3,814 -4,469 -4,682

- 6,090 - 8,186

3,102 2,436 1,986

540 1,619 583

1,051 1,162 1,314

-4,753

-10,893 -10,769 -11,058

Apr. May June

1,435 408 580

99 85 9

2,590

July Aug

457 *1,758

-214 *398

Oct. Nov. Dec 1976-- Tan. Feb Mar

1974--July

Aug

Sept.

NOtS:

(6)

1,852 1,393 1,298

- 4,048

- 7,241p

- 9,793

-5,262

-5,030 -3,952 -3,171 -4,445

1,736 3,020 162

(9)

(8)

-11,603 - 9,091 - 9,920

3,075 3,336p

149 164p

-3,522

227p

- 9,555

-4,271p

- 8, 90p

-76 -145 -309 -263 -209

369 278 -16 115 184

3,435 2,640 3,175 3,641 3,690

126 137 152 155 163

-3,794

- 8,966

-4,L16 -3,972 -2,669 -3,111

-10,178

-178 772 487 489

228p 145p 263p 3 18 p

3,089p 040 3, p 3 43 7 , p 3,533p

176

p 160p 166p 161p

-4,466 -5,174 -4,172 -3,041p

- 9,938

432p

3,90&p

152p

-3,

3 10 17 24 31

75 26 24 284 1,673

7 14 21 28

2,065 *2,290 *L,657 *1,226

* * *

4 11 18 25

*2,669

*459

9 74

- 9,826 - 9,758 - 8,957

- 9,382 - 8,605 - 8,567p - 7,241p

Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions are debt issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. *

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) SEPTEMBER

1974

TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES per cent

Short-Term Treasury Bills

Long-Term 90-119 Day

CD's New Issue-NYC

New

Commercial

Federal Funds (1)

90-Day (2)

1 60-89 Day

90-119 Day

1-Year

paper_

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

U.S. Government

Aaa Utility

Issue (7)

Recently

Municipal

Offered

Bond Buyer

(8)

(9)

TNMA

(10-yr. Constant Auction

Maturity) (10)

Yields (11)

1973 --

High Low

10.84 5.61

8.95 5.15

8.43 5.42

10.50 5.63

10.50 5.38

10.75 5.50

8.52 7.29

8.30 7.26

5.59 4.99

7.54 6.42

9.37 7.69

1974 --

High LOw

13.55 8.81

9.63 7.04

9.54 6.39

12.25 7.88

12.25 8.00

12.00 7.88

10.31 8.05

10.31 8.14

6.95 5.16

8.14 6.93

10.38 8.43

10.50 10.78

8.67 8.29

8.32 8.07

10.26 10.31

10.25 10.31

10.40 10.50

8.36 7.88

8.22 7.99

5.48 5.10

7.40 7.09

8.83 9.32

Oct. NOV. Nov. Dec.

10.01 10.03 9.95

7.22 7.83 7.45

7.17 7.40 7.01

9.14 9.11 9.28

9.15 9.06 9.44

8.08

7.90 7.90 8.00

7.94 7.94 8.04

5.05

6.79

5.18 5.12

6.73 6.74

9.01 8.84 8.78

Jan.

Feb. Mar.

9.65 8.97 9.35

7.77 7.12 7.97

7.01 6.51 7.34

8.86 8.00 8.64

9.05 8.09 8.69

8.83 7.97 8.56

8.21 8.12 8.46

8.22 8.23 8.42

5.22 5.20 5.41

6.99 6.96 7.21

8.71 8.48 8.53

Apr. May June

10.51 11.31 11.93

8.33 8.23 7.90

8.08

9.81

8.21 8.16

9.92 10.82 11.18

10.83 11.06

9.78 10.90 10.88

8.98 9.24 9.38

8,94 9.13 9.36

5.73 6.02 6.13

7.51 7.58 7.54

9.07 9.41 9.54

July Aug.

12.92 12.01

7.55 8.96

8.04 8.88

11.93 11.79

11.83 11.69

11.83 11.91

10.20 10.07

10.04 10.19

6.68 6.69

7.81 8.04

9.84 10.25

3 10 17 24 31

13.55 13.34 13.04 12.60 12.29

7.45

8.36 8.32 7.84 7.75 8.13

11.95 12.09 12.25 11.90 11.45

11.75 12.25 11.88 11.50 11.75

11.75 12.00 12.00 11.63 11.75

10.30

9.79 10.16 10.10 10.09 10.28

6.64 6.95 6.78 6.34 6.70

7.68 7.82 7.88 7.77 7.90

9.65

7.58 7.51 7.63 7.53

7 14 21 28

12.09 12.02 12.23

8.50 8.52 8.80 9.54

11.55 11.68 11.85 12.00

11.75 11.75 11.63 11.63

11.75

10.15 10.02 10.28 10.26

7.99 8.04

10.12

12.00 12.00

9.82 10.10 10.26 9.99

6.58 6.61 6.73

11.84

8.42 E.84 8.94 9.63

6.91

8.05 8.14

10.38

Sept. 4 11 18 25

11.64

9.18

9.26

11.94

11.63

12.00

10.31p

10.27p

6.88

8.12p

11.67 11.63p

9.02

1973 -- Aug. Sept.

1974

1974 --

July

Aug.

Daily - Aug. 29 Sept. 5 NOTE:

9.33

8.91 9.13

11.88

10.25 10.10

9.90 9.98

12.00 11.88

8 and 10 the Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are oneeday Wednesday quotes. For columns 7, Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the stateweekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in the Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. ment week. bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages,

September

6, 1974

APPENDIX TABLE I RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES

BANK CREDIT

MONEY STOCK

Non-

Total borrowed

Period

(1)

-to able to support rivate

(2)

oved Series H

eposits (3)

(4)

Total Adjusted Credit

f (5)

__OTHER

MEASRES

MEASURES_

RESERAVS

3 (6)

Loans and Invest-

Revised Sertes Total

Proy

ent

time

(7)

(8)

(9)

Thrift Testituinonpotic De

Tine other than

D's

o it

dep

-funds

(12)

(11)

(10)

(13)

(Dollar Change

(Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth)

.S. Gov't.

Dmand (14) in Billions)

Annually 1970 1971 1972 1971

+9 +7 +7 +7

3 8 7 2

+8 7 +6.9 +10 1 +9.3

+8 4 + 8 .3 +8.2 +11 2 +13.3 +9.4 +11.1 +13 0 +11.6 +8 9 +8.8 +10 6

+10.7 +12 +10.9 +12

+8 1 +11.2 +14.6 +13.5

+17.9 +18 2 +15 7 +16.0

+13.6 +14.7

+15. +14.8

+13.8 +12.3

+8.0 +17 1 +16.6 +8.6

+14.4 +7.7 +10.4 +19 4

-8.4 -7.6 +0.4 +3.0

+15.7 +16 3

+4.4 46.0

-0.2 +0.6

Semi-Annually tat Half 1972 2nd Half 1972

+10.8 +9 9

+11.0 +4.1

+8 3 +11 5

lot Half 1973 2nd Half 1973

+6.7 +8.6

+1.6 +12.7

+10.3 +7.8

+9 7 +13.8 +7 5 +7.0

+16.6 +9.6

+20.8 +10.2

+10 +11.8

+10.7 +6.1

+18.6 +0.8

+1 2 +1.8

+11. 0

+1.3

+13 3

+ 7. 7 +14.9

413.9

+20.0

+10.6

+6.4

+20,5

+2.9

1974

Qunrterly* 1st Qtr. 1972 2nd Qtr 1972 3rd Qtr. 1972 4th Qtr. 1972

+8 7 +12.6 +4. 4 +15.1

+15 7 +11.1 +13.0 +15.8

+14.5 +15.7 +14.3 +14 8

+15 5 +11.7 +12.7 +11.4

+15.9 +14.9 +17.8 +14 2

+8.6 +14.6 +10.6 +12.6 +5 1 +1 5 +9. +3.3

+19.9 +12.7 +12 7 +6 3

+22.7 +17.8 +14.0 +6.1

+9.9 +10.6 +10.6 +12.6

+11.4 +9.7 +4.6 +7.6

+8.9 +8.5 +6.4 +20.9

+15.9 +11.5

+15.4 +23.7

+12.2 +8 7

+8.6 +4.1

+12.9 +7.0 +9.6 +10.0 +10.8 +10 7 +7.6 +13 0 +10.8 +16 1 +11.4 +10.1

+13.7 +11.6 +8 7 +9.0 +9.4 +10.4 +7.3 +2.3 +4.7 46.8 +7.2 +8.6

1,t

Half

+9 +12 -0 +9

1 6 9 2

+9 6 +6 9 +10 4 +12.2

lst Qtr 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr.

1973 1973 1973

4th Qtr

1973

+10.6 +6.1

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr

1974 1974

+1.7 +20.4

+t.5 +1 1

+30.1 -21 1 +10.5 +14.7 +5.4 +0.5 +27.2 -5.1 +9.4 +12.1 -4.3 +10.5

+26.8 -38.5 +1.8 +20.1 +0.5 +0.2 +24.9 -13.5 +21.9 +26 7 -1,6 +14.4

+15.9 -2.9 +10.3 +10.0 +9.9 +17.3 +18 5 +10.1 +13.3 +1.0

+35,7 -24.8 -5.4

+45.9 -30.4 -10.0

+6.9 -0.3 +11.9

+32.7

+19.0

+19.7

+20.8 +6.8 +22. 5

-8.2 -7.4 +14.1

+21.7 +18 4 +8.7

Moanthly! 1971--Jan Feb. Mat Apt. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov, Dee. 1974--Jan Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July

+6.4 +6.9

-3 6 47 0 +11.3 413.4

+13.5 +11 0 +13.3 +12.0

+7.8 +12.5 +14.2 +1 4 +12+.2

+6.2 +20 3

-6.3

+9.4

4 +11.2 8 +11 3

+5.6

+9.0

+6.4

+7.7

+10.5 +11.6 +10.2 +12.1

+8.1 +6.6 +8.6 +10.9 +11.9 +6.3 +5.0 +3.9 +9.3 +10.1 49.6

+11.1 +22.3 +15.4 +11.0 +11.1 +8.6 +17.0 +5.7 +1.6 +2 7 +5 6

+17.8 +23 7 +17.2 +13.1 +16.6 +8 2 +14.5 +18.2 +5 2 +7.7 +7.4 +3.6

+16.5 +22.3 +28,2 +22.5 +18.8 +11.2 +12.8 +18 9 +9 8 +3.7 +3 3 +11.3

+7.1 +10.9 +8.3 +7.0 +4.2 +7,9 +4.9

+12.5 +1.3 +11.3 +31.6 +16.8 +13.3 +9.4

+14.7 +15.5 +16.8 +16.0 +10.2 +7.8 +13.1

+21.8 +14.9 +9.0 +30.5 +22.6 +16.7 +13.2

+10.8

+16.0 +13.8 +6.6 +7.7 +5.8 +12.3 +9.5

derived by averaging ~d Growth rates are based on estimated monthly average levels data month reported NOTE" Reserve Requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, commercial paper are included beginning Oct ber 1, 1970 e If

p -

Prelimnary

+0.7 +3.7 +2.4 +3.6 +11.2 +7 4 +4.7 -3.9 +4.9

+15.6 +1.3

+4.4 +5.5 +3.8 +2.9 +0 7 +1.9 +2.4 +0.4 -2.9 -1 8 +0.8

+8.6 +7.8 +9.2 +6.6 +2.5 +3.6 +3.2

current month

1969,

and

-0.3 +0.1 +0.3

+0.3 +0.5 +0 7 +1.7

+0.1 +1.2

+1.7 +0.6 -0.5 +0.4 +0.2 +0.3 +0.2 +0.9 +0 6 +0.2 -0.4

+0.2 +0.3

+2.7 +1.1 +1.1

+0.1 +0.2 +0.9

+7.7

+1.0

+5.8 +2.1 +2.1

+1.1 -0.4 +0.9

and end

requirements on

of previous bank-related

September 6, 1974 APPENDIX TABLE II RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES (Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars) MONEY STOCK MEASURES

RESERVES Available Co Support Pvt.

NonPeriod

Total

borrowed

(1)

(2)

Denoslts

(3)

NT N

Total (4)

Dep. (5)

Revised

2 (6)

Total Loans & Ad). Credit InvestProxv ments

(7)

(8)

(9)

Serie

ANNUALLY Dec. 1970 Dec 1971 Dec. 1972

29,193 31,299 31,410

28,861 31,173 30,360

27,099 28,965 29,053

221 2 235 2 255 7

172 2 182.6 198 7

425.2 473 0 525 5

642.7 727 9 822.8

332 9 364.3 406 4

438.5 487.6 559.0

MONTHLY. 1973--Jan. Feb. Mar.

32,199 31,634 31,910

31,037 30,040 30,085

29,439 29,368 29,621

256.7 257 9 258.1

199.6 200.4 200 1

529.6 532.4 534.7

830.2 835.8 840.4

409.7 413.5 421 2

32,300 32,445 32.459

30,589 30,602 30,608

29,867 30,114 30,548

259 4 262 4 265 5

200.8 203.4 206 2

538 4 543 7 549 5

846.4 854 1 862.6

33,576 33,906 34,173

31,622

Aug. Sept.

31,358 32,038 32,394

266.4 266.3 265 5

206 206 205

9 4 3

552 1 555.1 556 8

Oct. Nov Dec

34,942 34,857 35,105

33,466 33,807

32,845 32,714 32,912

266.6 269 2 271.4

206 1 208 2 209.7

1974--Jan Feb Mar

35,850 35,108 34,949

34,799 33,916 33,634

32,799 32,791 33,117

270.6 273.1 275.2

35,902 36,523 36,731 37,421

34,166 33,933 33,725 34,120

33,660 34,270 34,795 35,047

3 10 17 24

35.398

35,040 36,161 36,003

33,895 33,846 34,345 34.066

1 15 22 29

36,742 36,385 36,572 36,659 36,447

34,585 34,768 34.595 33,569 32,841

5 12 19 26

36,514 36,122 36,967 36,851

33,460 33,393 33,744 34,063

3 10 17 24 31

37,446 37,102 37,828 37,428 37,315

34,011 34,462 34,653 33,787 33,625

37,101 37.112 37,412 37,311

34,012 34,072 33,975 33,778

Apr May lune July

Apr May June July WEEKLY. 1974--April

June

July

Aug.

7 14 21 p 28 p

31,741 32,321

33.463

...

Non-

Insti-

tution YSPVIL .

CD'

U.S.

Dep.

Gov't

sYCELunIs

(12)

(13)

(14)

(15)

237.9 269 9

217 5 254.8 297 2

25.3 33.0 43.4

11.6 4.0 DIP 4.4

6.5 6.1 6.1

567.3 578.5 586 8

317.6 323.6 331.2

272.9 274.5 276.6

300.6 303.5 305.7

44.7 49.1 54.6

5.0 4.5 4.9

6.7 6.1 7.6

426.6 430.5 434.5

593.2 601.4 605.5

337.4 342.7 345.9

278.9 281 4 283.9

308 0 310.4 313.1

58.4 61 3 62.0

5.1 5.4 5.6

7,1 5.2 5.3

867.1 870 7 873 5

437.6 443 8 445.9

612.8 622 1 624.8

349.6 355.1 358.0

285.7 288.8 291.4

315.0 315.6 316.7

63.9 66.3 66.7

6.5 7.1 7.3

3.9 4.8 5 0

561.9 567.3 572.1

880 3 887 7 894 8

446 5 447.5 449.6

628.8 632.7 634.6

359.1 360.1 363.5

295.3 298.1 300.6

318 5 320.4 322.7

63.8 62.0 62 8

6.9 7.1 74

6.0 5.8 4.9

208.7 210.4 211.9

575.1 581.2 585.0

900.1 908.3 914.6

454.3 454.8 459 1

642 4 650.7 659.8

370.1 374.7 377.5

304.6 308.1 309.8

325.0 327.1 329.6

65.5

66.6 67.7

7.5 7.7 8.6

6.2 3.0 3.7

276.7 277.8 279.6 280.0

212.8 213.4 214.8 215.1

588.5 591.0 596.2 598.9

919.9 923.1 929.2 933.0

471.2 477.8

668.6 674 3 679.3 686.7

387.1 394.4 399.9 404.3

311.8 313.3 316.5 319.0

331.4 332.1 333 1 334. 0

75.4 81.2 83.3 85.4

9.6 10 7 10.3 11.2

4.5 3.8 3.7 2.5

33,240 33,117 33,794 33,722

276.3 276.4 278.7 276.3

212.9 212.3 214.6 712.4

586.6 587.7 590.6 588.4

466 3 468.4 472.9 471 8

381.8 385.1 386.7 388.9

310.3 311.3 311.9 312.0

71.5 73.9 74.8 76.9

9.5 9.3 9.4 9.7

4.8 5.0 5.0 4.0

34,277 34,151 34,104 34,250 34,434

275.3 277.1 278.0 279.2 276.7

211.5 212.7 213.7 214.6 212.2

587.9 589.5 591.3 592.1 590.8

473.8 476.4 476.6 478.5 478.4

390.5 392.1 393.8 394.9 396.6

312.5 312.4 313.3 312.9 314.0

78.0 79.7 80.6 82.0 82.5

10.2 10.4

10.8 11.1 11.0

4.4 5.3 3.3 3.2 3.0

34, 754 34.467

279. 8 279.6 280.2 278.9

215.3 214.6 215.4 214.2

595.1 595.4 597.1 596.1

481.9 482.5

482 .8

397.2 398.4 400.4 401.4

315.3 315.8 316.9 317.2

81.9 82.5 83.5 84.1

10.6 10.1 9.7 10 4

3.7 4.7 3.5 3.3

35,164 34,994 35,107 34,847 35,191

280.8

216.0 214.2 216.1

598.1 597.8 599.4

402.4 403.2 404.0 405.2 405.9

317.4 318.5 318.5 319.3 320.3

85.0 84.7 85.4 85.9 85.6

10.7 10.4 10.8 12.1 11.7

3.1 3.3 2.1 2.1 2.3

35,243 35,279 35,401 35,363

281.0 281.2 281.0 279.8

405.5 406.2 406.0 406.4

320.6 321.5 321.4 322.2

84.9 84.7 84.6 84.21

11.0 9.8 10.5 11.1

4.0

34,775

. .

OTHER Thrift

270.9 313.3

34.963

Time Other Total Than CD's Time Time (10) I Than (11) Revised Series Total T Other 229.2 203.9

279.3 280.9 279.2 279.2

483.1 486.9

482.9

214.3

598.5

214.4

599.6

487.9 485.3 486.2 487.0 487.8

215.6 215.6 215.4 214.1

601.5 602.7 602.4 602.1

488.8 488.6 489.6 489.3

1:8 6.1

I/ Estimated monthly average levels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous month reported data. NOTE Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, bank-related commercial paper and Eurodollar borrowings of U.S. banks. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks. Monthly data are daily averages except for nonbank commercial paper figures which are for last day of month Weekly data are not available for M 3 , total loans and investments and thrift institution deposits. p - Preliminary.

Appendix Table III

Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate)

M1 M

1972

9.0

6.2

12.3

11.0

13.5

12.5

11.0

11.7

8.9

9.8

10.8

13.3

13.0

9.9

10.6

10.2

12.0

12.2

3.8

7.0

11.5

7.5

5.6

8.9

4.5

5.6

6.4

III

1974

8.7

III

1973

7.0 11.1

8.8

8.6

8.8

10.6

10.2 9.0

7.9

5.1

7.5

8.9

9.8

7.9

9.0

9.4

8.9

7.7

7.9

6.4

5.3 11.0

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

Appendix Table IV Growth Rates in Money Supply for Alternatives M1

Alt. A

1974

III IV

2.6 7.1

3.9 5.7

6.0 8.1

6.9 7.4

5.0 6.9

5.5 6.4

1975

7.0

5.9

8.4

7.9

6.9

6.5

Alt. B 1974

III IV

2.4 6.5

3.9 5.1

6.8 6.7

4.6 5.5

5.4 5.0

1975

6.0

5.3

6.7

5.2

5.0

Alt. C 1974 1975

III IV

2.3 6.0

3.7

4.8

5.7 6.4

6.8 6.1

4.3 4.4

5.3 4.1

5.5

4.6

5.7

5.6

4.2

4.0

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in last months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

Appendix Table V

Money Supply Growth Rates

M1 1973 January

M1 less Foreign Official Deposits and Deposits due to Foreign Commercial Banks

4.7

5.2

5.3

February

5.6

6.7

March

0.9

0.5

0.9

April

6.0

6.5

6.6

May

13.9

13.0

11.8

June

14.2

14.7

14.4

July

4.1

3.6

August

-0.5

September

-3.6

-3.7

5.0

5.5

4.6

10.9

10.1

October November December

1974 January February

NOTE:

M1 less Foreign Official Deposits

11.7

9.8

9.9

2.8 --

8.2

-3.5

-4.0

-5.0

11.1

11.2

11.3

March

9.2

10.2

9.9

April

6.5

3.9

4.0

May

4.8

6.6

5.8

June

7.8

6.1

6.2

July

1.7

3.0

1.3

August

3.0

3.5

4.4

Growth rates from January 1974 to date have been revised to reflect changes due to April 1974 call report benchmark adjustments to M1.

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1974, September 9). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19740910

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19740910,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1974},
  month = {Sep},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19740910},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}