bluebooks · April 14, 1975

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing).

A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Content last modified 6/05/2009.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

April 11

1975

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

April 11, 1975

CLASS I - FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments M1 expanded at an annual rate of about 14 per cent in March,

(1)

and current data suggest about a 6 per cent growth rate for April.

For the

two-month target period, M1 thus appears to be growing at a 10 per cent annual rate, well above the Committee's range of tolerance, as the table shows.

Growth of M2 over the March-April period appears to be running at

an annual rate of around 10½ per cent, slightly above the upper limit of its range of tolerance.

Larger-than-seasonal Federal tax refunds have

probably contributed to the particularly rapid growth in deposits other than large CD's. weeks of March,

demand and time

During late February and the first three

refund payments totalled about $10.5 billion, or 55 per

cent more than in

the same period last year. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over March-April Period

Reserve and monetary aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent)

Range of Tolerance

5-7

8-10

RPD

Latest Estimates 9.9

10.6 -0.6

3½-5½ 1/

Memo:

Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

4-3/4-5-3/4

Avg. for statement week ending 5.53 Mar. 26 Apr.

5.59

Apr.

5.28

1/ A majority of the Committee members concurred in the Chairman's recommendation of March 27 that 5

per cent be treated as the

approximate upper limit for the average funds rate for the time being.

(2)

Growth of the bank credit proxy resumed in March, following

the slight February contraction.

The proxy appears to be rising more

rapidly in April, and may show an annual growth rate of around 8 per cent for the two months combined.

With business demand for bank loans

remaining weak, banks have used the recent increases in their overall deposit flows largely to acquire Government securities and to help finance expanded positions of security dealers. (3)

Following the March 18 FOMC meeting, the Account Manager

initially sought reserve conditions consistent with a Federal funds rate remaining around 5

per cent.

Data available shortly after the last

meeting, however, indicated stepped up growth in the aggregates to rates at or above the Committee's ranges.

In these circumstances, the Desk

would normally have tolerated a firming up in the funds rate to the 5¾ per cent upper limit of the Committee's range.

But in view of the weak-

ness in the economy and the sensitive condition of financial markets, the FOMC concurred with the Chairman's recommendation (of March 27) that the Manager be instructed to treat 5½ per cent as the approximate upper limit for the weekly average funds for the time being.

In the first

two statement weeks of the intermeeting period the funds rate had averaged close to 5

per cent.

In the week just ended, when a sharp

drop in the Treasury balance added to the reserve supply, the average funds rate declined to 5.28 per cent. (4)

Short-term interest rates generally have moved higher

since the March meeting.

The rate on 3-month Treasury bills has advanced

15 basis points to around 5.55 per cent, and that on 12-month bills is

up 75 basis points, to 6.40 per cent. advanced 10-25 basis points.

Private short-term rates have

With these latter rates rising, most large

banks have elected to hold their prime lending rate at 7½ per cent. Factors that appear to have contributed to the rise in short-rates include the large amount of new cash being raised by the Treasury in the short-term area, belief that enactment of the tax bill will insure a near term pick-up in economic activity, and the emerging expectation that monetary policy will not be easing much, if any, further. (5)

Bond yields have also increased over the intermeeting

period, carrying some series up by as much as 40 basis points.

With

corporate offerings projected to remain large for some months ahead and the Treasury expected to raise $5-7 billion of new cash on average per month over the next year or so, investors who expect upward rate pressure later in 1975 and on into 1976 were reluctant to commit funds to long-term markets.

In these unfavorable circumstances scheduled new corporate debt

offerings of more than $1 billion were either cancelled or postponed. Near the end of the intermeeting period, the combination of higher bond yields and cutbacks in scheduled bond offerings helped to stabilize conditions in bond markets. (6)

Deposits at nonbank thrift institutions expanded at a

very rapid pace in March, reflecting not only the attractiveness of yields on depositary claims but also inflows of tax refunds.

While these

institutions have continued to use improved flows to pay down debt and rebuild liquidity, current supplies of mortgage funds reportedly are adequate.

Nevertheless, with other long-term yields rising, the thrifts

-4have not been aggressive mortgage lenders and mortgage rates have stopped declining. (7)

The table on the following page shows (in percentage

annual rates of change) selected monetary and financing flows over various time periods.

Appendix table III compares money supply growth

rates computed on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a last-month-of-quarter basis.

-5Calendar

Year 1974

Past Twelve

Months Mar.'75 over Mar.'74

Past Three

Past

Months Mar.'75 over

Month Mar.'75 over

Sept.'74 Dec.'74

Feb.'75

Past Six Months

Mar.'75 over

8.6

6.0

-2.3

-8.2

-5.1

10.8

10.1

17.3

-1.2

-3.7

8.9

6.2

-1.8

-4.3

-4.8

M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/

4.7

4.3

3.9

14.0

M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's)

7.4

7.2

7.8

8.5

12.4

M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions)

6.8

7.2

8.7

10.2

M4 (M plus CD's)

10.8

9.8

8.3

7.3

7.1

M5 (M3 plus CD's)

9.1

8.9

9.0

9.2

10.3

10.2

8.8

3.7

3.2

6.1

8.3

5.1

1.1

5.8

6.6

2.2

1.8

-. 1

-. 2

-. 6

-. 4

Total reserves Nonborrowed reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank

deposits Concepts of Money

14.0

Bank Credit Total member bank deposits

(bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of 2/ commercial banks Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change

in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on average of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments The presentation of alternative policy specifications

(8)

has been revised somewhat in order more clearly to encompass as longer-run objectives a broad spectrum of monetary aggregates and to include a time span of a year as well as shorter periods.

Alternative--

and, as best can be estimated, mutually consistent--ranges for longer-run rates of growth in the various monetary aggregates for the 12-month period from March 1975 to March 1976 are shown below for Committee consideration.

(Consistent growth rates from the first quarter of 1975 to

the first quarter of 1976 are shown in appendix table V).

Growth rates

for interim periods (shown for convenience as point estimates rather than ranges) under the three alternatives are included in the detailed table on the next page.

Alt. A

Alt. C

5-7½

4-6½

10-12

8½-10½

7-9

11½-13½

10-12

8½-10½

7½-10½

7-10

10-12

9½-11½

7½-10½

6½-9½

6-8½

Bank credit proxy 1/

Alt. B-

6-9

8-10 5½-8½

Consistent with staff assumptions adopted for GNP projections in the Green Book. (9)

Of the alternatives shown, alternative B most nearly

corresponds to the longer-run objectives implied in Committee specifications adopted at the last meeting.

It incorporates a 6 per cent annual

-6aAlternative Longer-Run Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates

1975

1976

Mar. Apr. May June Sept. Dec. Mar.

1975

2nd Q.

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt.

287.1 288.5 290.9 292.9 298.2 303.0

287.1 288.4 290.7 292.4 296.8 300.9

287.1 288.4 290.5 292.0 295.6 299.0

627.4 632.0 638.6 645.2 662.6 679.9

627.4 631.9 638.3 644.4 659.4 674.6

627.4 631.8 637.7 643.4 655.8 668.1

1007.6 1018.2 1031.6 1043.8 1076.9 1106.8

1007.6 1017.9 1030.8 1042.4 1072.0 1098.4

1007.6 1017.6 1029.5 1040.3 1065.5 1087.0

307.9

305.0

302.3

695.3 688.1 678.9 Growth Rates 11.4 10.8 10.2 10.8 9.3 7.7 10.5 9.8 9.0 11.2 10.2 9.1 8.8 8.4 8.6 12.5 11.2 12.2

1132.6

1120.7

1105.0

14.4 12.7 12.8 13.8

13.8 11.4 12.1 12.8 12.3 15.2

3rd Q.

Dec.'74-Sept.'75 Mar. '75-Sept. 1975

'75

Apr.

May

5.9 10.0

7.4 6.0 5.9 6.8

6.8 4.9 5.3 5.9

5.4 9.6

5.4 8.7

12.6 15.8

Mar. Apr. May June Sept.

Dec. 1976

Mar.

Alt. A 717.4 721.8 728.1 734.5 751.3 767.9 783.0

Alt. B 717.4 721.7 727.9 734.0 749.1 764.3 777.8

13.0 9.7 11.3 11.5

11.9 14.0

Credit Proxy

1975

Alt. C 717.4 721.6 727.5 733.4 746.5 759.5 770.9

Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1097.5 1097.5 1097.5 1107.9 1107.7 1107.4 1121.1 1120.4 1119.3

1133.1 1165.6 1194.8 1220.3

1132.0 1161.7 1188.1 1210.4

1130.3 1156.2 1178.4 1197.0

I Ilt. A 498.2 502.2 505.0 508.3 521.2 532.2 542.9

Alt. B 498.2 502.0 505.0 508.3 520.3 529.8 539.1

Alt. C 498.2 502.0 504.5 507.7 518.3 526.2 534.1

Growth Rates

2nd Q. 3rd Q. Dec.'74-Sept.'75 Mar.'75-Sept. '75 1975

1975 Apr. May

9.5 9.1 8.8 9.5 7.4 10.5

9.3 8.2 8.4 8.8

8.9 7.1 7.9 8.1

7.2

7.0

10.3

9.8

13.0 11.5 11.5 12.4 11.4 14.3

12.6 10.5 11.0 11.7 11.2 13.8

12.0 9.2 10.4 10.7 10.8 12.9

8.1 10.2 7.3 9.2 9.6 6.7

8.1 9.4 7.0 8.9 9.2 7.2

7.6 8.4 6.5 8.1 9.2 6.0

rate of growth for M 1 over the period from December 1974 to September 1975.

Growth in the second and third quarters of 1975 would be at

a more rapid 6¾ per cent annual rate to make up for the first quarter M 2 for this alternative shows about the same rate of growth

shortfall.

as at the last meeting, but M 3 is somewhat more rapid, reflecting the greatly enlarged public preference for deposits at thrift institutions which appears to have emerged. (10)

Possible alternative short-run operating ranges of

tolerance for the Federal funds rate and for Ml, M2, and RPD are shown in the table below for Committee consideration.

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Range of tolerance for April-May M1

7-9

64-8k

6-8

9%-11

9k-11

9-11

RPD

21-4k

1 -34

k-21

4-5%

5k-6k

6-7

Federal funds rate (intermeeting range) (11)

Various different short-run specifications could be

consistent with a given longer-run target.

Any particular 12 month

growth rate for a monetary aggregate could be achieved with different patterns of growth in the aggregate during the period, and with consequent different timing and magnitude of any necessary interest rate adjustments.

The short-run specifications deemed "consistent" with the

12-month growth rate will depend in part on the particular time pattern contemplated in attaining the 12-month objective.

In developing the

short-run specifications shown for the several alternatives in the preceding paragraph, it was assumed that the Committee would desire to have the aggregates grow at a faster rate over the first half of the period-that is, from March to September--than over the ensuing 6 months, for the following reasons: (1) large tax rebates and one-time social security payments are expected to have a strong impact on demand and time deposits in late spring and early summer; (2) previous declines in short-term interest rates are still having an expansionary impact on money demand; and (3) the sharp rebound projected for the economy in the third quarter would spur transactions demand for cash. that as economic recovery develops,

All of the alternatives assume

the Federal funds rate would need

to rise above the mid-point of the short-run ranges shown to bring growth in the aggregates into line with longer-run targets.

In the case of

alternatives B and C, the short-run specifications indicate a rise in the Federal funds rate over the next few weeks.

The staff expects that

such a rise would moderate the extent to which interest rates might have to rise later in order to restrain money demand. (12)

Alternative A contemplates a Federal funds rate remaining

in the 5¼-5½ per cent range most recently prevailing.

M 1 would be

expected to increase over the two month April-May period in a 7-9 per cent annual rate range.

Growth is expected to be especially large in

May when the largest part of the tax rebates are paid out.

This

alternative contemplates about a 7¾ per cent annual rate of growth in M1, and 11 per cent in M 2 , over the second and third quarters.

(13)

With little or no change in the Federal funds rate over

the next few weeks, upward pressures on market interest rates, if any, are likely to occur mainly in the Treasury market.

The Treasury will

continue to add sizable amounts to its weekly and monthly bill auctions, A $1.5 billion 2-year note will be auctioned on Tuesday.

And in the

mid-May refunding of $3.8 billion of maturing publicly held debt--to be announced on Thursday, May 1--the Treasury will also probably raise about $2-2½ billion of new cash in the coupon area.

Recent postponements

in the corporate bond market have relieved pressure in that area to some extent, but any interest rate decline will be limited over the near-term since the calendar remains heavy and recently postponed issues would likely be rescheduled as the market shows signs of improvement. (14)

A rise in the Federal funds rate to around the 6 per

cent level--as shown for alternative B short-run specifications in paragraph (10)--would probably lead to a sharp market reaction. 3-month bill rate could move up into the 6¼-6¾ per cent area.

The Treasury

coupon issues, particularly short-term coupons, might rise another 50 basis points, or possibly more in the short-run as markets over-anticipate the extent of monetary tightening in process.

Such a rise would lead to

yields in the 7¾-8 per cent area on 2-year Treasury notes--a yield level which, if sustained, would begin to attract funds that might otherwise go into banks and thrift instituions.

We have assumed some moderation

in such flows under this alternative, but relatively large over the next few months.

they are expected to remain The availability of mortgage

market funds may not, therefore, be significantly limited in this period.

-10(15)

The rise of interest rates under alternative B would work

to hold growth in M1 over the second and third quarters to around a 6¾ per cent annual rate, as noted earlier.

With some diminution in the expansion

of interest-bearing deposits, growth in broader measures of money would be moderated, relative to alternative A. Bank credit expansion would be reduced somewhat, but with business and consumer loan demands expected to be weak at least over the next month or two, banks would still be in a position to participate heavily in Treasury financings. (16)

The roughly 1 percentage point rise in the Federal funds

rate over the next few weeks contemplated under alternative C would probably cause other short-term rates to rise by even larger amounts, at least temporarily, mainly because of expectational effects on markets in a period of heavy Treasury financings and with near-term prospects of economic recovery.

Longer-term rate increases could be substantial, if

borrowers tended to accelerate offerings under the circumstances in

anticipation of even higher rates later.

On the other hand, pressures

on bond markets could be moderated if corporate borrowers begin to

utilize bank lines so as to avoid being locked into relatively high interest costs.

Lower growth rates in all of the monetary aggregates

would be expected.

Banks and thrift institutions may begin to experience

a significantly slower inflow of consumer-type time and savings deposits, and the bank prime loan rate and mortgage market rates would probably show significant increases.

-11Proposed directive (17)

Presented below are three alternative formulations

for the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section.

In all three alternatives, it is proposed to include

a reference to Treasury financing because the regular mid-May financing will be announced later this month. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF developments in domestic and international financial markets,

the Committee seeks to

achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with more rapid growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead than has occurred ON AVERAGE in recent months. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF developments in domestic and international financial markets,

the Committee seeks to

achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with SOMEWHAT more rapid growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead than has occurred ON AVERAGE in recent months.

-12Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF developments in and international financial markets,

domestic

the Committee seeks to

achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent

with[DEL: rapid] more

MODERATE growth in monetary aggregates over the

months ahead[DEL: months]. recent in occurred has than

CHART 1

CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II-FOMC 4/11/75

RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

Mar -Apr

34 ( 4/9/75)

1974

J 1974

J 1975

RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios

1975

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC 4/11/75

CHART 2

MONETARY AGGREGATES

NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -

300

280

iI .JLJ .

'260

II ...

7%% growth for Mar -Apr

growth

BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 660

640

820 10% growth for Mar -Apr

growth

S I I I I

I 1974

j 15 .j

i-f1 1975

__-_ M

1975

! M

4/11/75

CHART 3

MONETARY AGGREGATES CREDIT PRO XY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

- '520

Sao

480

\ I \

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 39

TOTAL

5 i

V I_______________

I !___,__,__________

1974 1975 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuitles associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios

4/11/75

CHART 4

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES DITIONS

PER CENT 14l

INTEREST RATES Short-term

PERCENT

INTEREST RATES Long-term

FUNDS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 4

1974

1975

1974

1975

1974

1975

PER CENT

TAPLE

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC

APRIL 11, 1975

BANK RESERVES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS)

RFOUIRFD RFSERVES AGGREGATE RESERVES RESERVES AVAILABLE ----SEASOALLY ADJUSTED---------------------------------------------------FOR PRIVATE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ( ---------------- ---- ----------------------------------------------------------NONBANK DEPOSITS CD'S AND GOV'T AND OTHER PRIVATE TOTAL NONBORROWED I TOTAL --------------------NON DEP INTERBANK PERIOD DEMAND TIME DEP RESERVES RESERVES I REQUIRED I SA I NSA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(6)

(5)

(7)

(8)

9,039

4,675

9,113 8,985 8,865 (8,824)

4,970 4,912 4,731 (4,712)

(9)

MONTHLY LEVELS-tMILLIONS 1074--EC.

33,423

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. PERCENT ANNUAL

33.423 33,196 33,063 (33,165)

33,631 34,414 33.191 32,807 (33,231)

35,584 35,820 35,006 34,857 (35,148)

34,857 35,421 34,858 34,751 (35,102)

35,326 35,673 34,812 34,647 (34,960)

19,440 19,199 19,108 19,259 (19,440)

2,173 2,392 1,807 1.793 ( 1,983)

GROWTH

OUARTFRLY 1974--2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH QTR.

19.1 9.1 0.8

1975--1ST OTR.

-4.3

20.5 8.3 3.6

-0.1 5.6 35.9

19.8 8.4 2.9

2.2 0.0 5.3

-1.2

-7.7

-3.7

34.7

13.8

8.3

9.7 11.0 6.5 -7.7

MONTHLY

15.6

1974--DEC.

0.0

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR.

(

MAR.-APR. WEEKLY

------NOTE:

8.0 -27.3 -5.1 ( 10.01

-8.2

(

-4.8 3.7) (

-0.6)

2.4)

5.2

19.4 -19.1 -3.7 ( 12.1)

11.8 -29.0 -5.7 ( 10.8)

-14.9 -5.7 9.5 ( 11.3)

9.8 -16.9 -16.0 f -5.5)

(

( -10.8)

4.2)

2.6)

10.4)

LEVELS-SMILLIONS

FEB.

12 19 26

33,136 33,152 33,146

33,067 33,133 32,848

34,860 35,014 34,760

34,770 34,785 34,580

34,801 34,856 34,601

19,112 19.129 19,157

9,050 8,945 8,910

4,918 4.919 4,920

1,721 1,863 1,614

MAR.

5 12 19 26

33,192 33,077 32,760 33.140

32.910 32,5%3 32,664 32,936

35,001 34,809 34,579 34,937

34,931 34,749 34,412 34,782

34,592 34,579 34,559 34,784

19,094 19,200 19,180 19,447

8,869 8,881 8,844 8,866

4,820 4,766 4,717 4,673

1,809 1,731 1,818 1,797

APR.

2 9

33,233 33,075

33,079 32,683

35,056 34,791

35,005 34,759

34,731 34,677

19,353 19,442

8,864 8,798

4,691 4,721

1,822 1,716

---------------------------- ---------------------------------------^-----------------RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF MARCH 18, 1975 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD DATA SHOWN IN PARANTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. RANGE OF 3.50 TO 5.50 PERCENT FOR THE MARCH-APRIL PERIOD. ------------------

~----

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC

TABLE 2

(ACTUAL

MONFY SUPPLY NARROW EROAD (Ml) (M2)

I I

PERIOD

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY

I I

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

I U.S. OVT. I I DEPOSITS

(1)

(2)

(3)

284.3

614.3

494.3

1.9

616.0 621.0 627.4 (637.0)

495.8 495.7 498.2 (502.2)

0.7 0.6 0.7 ( 3.3)

I I

APRIL 11, ADJUSTED)

TIME

AND

TOTAL

(4)

SAVINGS DEPOSITS OTHER CD'S THAN CD'S

(5)

(6)

(7)

420.3

330.0

90.3

333.6 337.2 340.4

92.9 92.2 89.9 89.8)

I I

NONDFPOSIT SOURCES OF FUNDS (8)

MONTHLY LEVELS-$BILLTONS 1974--0DEC.

282.2 283.8 287.1 f288. )

1975--JAN. CEP. MAR. APR. PERCENT

ANNUAL

426.7 429.4 430.3 (433.3)

(343.5)

21.3 9.1 12.6

8.8 7.1 9.0

9.5

12.6

(

8.4 7.6 6.5 6.5 S 6.2)

CROWTH

OUARTERLY 1974--2ND OTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH OTP.

7.0 1.6 4.6

7.9

1975--1ST QTR.

3.9

8.5

20.4 6.7 4.2

7.0 4.5 7.C

78.2 17.2 75.9 -1.8

MONTHLY

(

5.o)

(

3.3 9.7 12.4 8.81

(

9.91

(

10.6)

-8.9

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR.

6.8 14.0

MAR.-APR. WEEKLY

2.9

67.4

3.6 -0.2 6.1 9.6)

18.3

13.8 12.2 11 . 10.9)

34.6 -9.0 (

-1.3)

11.2)

(

-15.6)

(

7.6 2.5

7.9)

(

8.4)

(

5.4)

-29.9

FEP.

5 12 19 26

281.8 284.2 283.6 284.7

616.8 621.2 621.0 623.4

494.3 495.5 496.0 497.2

427.9 430.0 429.7 430.0

335.0 337.1 337.5 338.8

93.0 92.9 92.3 91.3

MAR.

5 12 19 26

285.3 288.1 286.2 287.3

624.0

628.0 627.0 628.0

494.9 498.5 498.0 500.0

428.9 429.1 430.5 431.0

338.7 339.8 340.8 340.7

90.2 89.3 89.6 90.3

287.6 287.8

629.5 630.2

500.0 500.9

432.4 432.2

341.9

90.5 89.8

2 9

P PF

NOTE: --

16.2

LEVELS-$BILLIONS

APR.

- -

7.6

2.5

1974--DFC.

--- --- -- -

--- DATA SHOWN IN -------

------

PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. ------

- ---

----

-----

------

----

342.4

P - PRELIMINARY PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATED ------------ - - ---- -----

1975

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC APRIL 11, 1975 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECT OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted)

Open Market Qperatons 1/ RP's Coupon Agency Bills Net 3/ & Accept. Issues Issues (4) (3) (2) (1)

Total (5)

1974--Sept.

-594

176

191

549

322

Oct. Nov. Dec.

-1,727 1,217 729

212 280

331 360

-243 981 -976

-1,970 2,739 393

1975--Jan.

-1,102

406

-14

1,097

388

316 1,301t

-1,015 112r

Feb. Mar.

714 295 207 -1,758

309 -136r

.. Daily Average Reserve Effects 2/ Other 4/ Member A Open Market Factprs. Bank.Borrowing Operations (8) (7) (6)

in reserve cateories . _ available res. 5/ req. res. against (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) U.S.G. and interb. (10) (9)

-60

-67

375

-633 327 2,963

-1,494 -507 -583

1,990 201 -2,395

177 -183 66

-314 204 -81

315 395 450

-636

-313

1,548

258

341

965

-1,241 53

-243 - 41

-499 -773

-356 5

-1,627 -766

-670 -495

-32

495

April May

Weekly 1975--Feb.

Mar.

5 12' 19 26

19 -289 431

276

9 16 23 30

-316

-299 -1,091 -298 384

5 12 19

April 2

1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/

-1,043* -1,043*

-282r -669

-38 --43

-2,271 3,612 -2,186 2,496

376 -4,202 -2 -3,417 3,929 3,292

467 961 -1,520 -1,608

10 42 3 -277

-276 -987 -914 -285

-110 -9 106

106 2,721 -754

127 44 -83

62 -357 111

3,679

-12

-3,344p

-493

-104

9 6

166p

-2,016

- 19

1,564p

-76p

-689 -1,899 471 1,144

-3,807 -2,666** 3,318**

193 -3,025** 676**

4,496

928

373r

208

-2,371

-2,072r

-1,906

-2,575

-44 -7 138 -48

-2,608 2,521 -2,484 3,152

51p

272p

143 p -395p

auctions. Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill Represents change in daily average level for preceding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. Target change for Mar. and Apr. reflects the target adopted at the Mar. 18, 1975 FOMC meeting. Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. *

A Target available reserves 5/ (11)

Special certificate

(Direct Treasury borrowing from F.R.)

Reflects special certificate purchase.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC APRIL 11, 1975 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (Millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Period

Bills

Dealer Positions Municipal Corporate . Bonds Bonds

Coupon Issues

4'-.--,-.------

(1)

ota (6)

(5)

(2)

...

a (7)

.. [Basic .

. . . 8 N .

Reserve uetclit Vnrk

8 Others w

(8)

(9)

3,906 647

176 13

-7,870 -2,447

-12,826

609 32

22 5

-7,387

-11,415

-4,659

- 8,504

134

1,314

-5,030

-11,058

182 178 204

1,736 2,590 3,020

40 102 134

-3,952 -3,171 -4,445

-11,603

162 197 180

3,075 3,337 3,282

149 164 139

-3,522 -4,231 -4,235

- 9,555 - 9,224 - 8,250

25 83 175

197 205 258

1,813

117 67 32

-4,602 -6,322 -5,960

- 8,689 - 9,715

147 198 2 19p

398 147 94p

14 11

-5,378 -6,318 -5,732

- 9,744 - 9,533

*2,521

97 144 307

2,739 3,555 3,644 3,335

2,178 1,863 1,699 2,607

0 59 128 244

395

98 90

11 10 12 11

5 12 19 26

3,146 3,215 *3,139 *3,066

2,249 2,159 *2,839 *2,771

266 290 464 208

409

*3,287 *3,138

*2,501 *2,336

628

3,678 - 289

1975-High Low

3,644 1,586

2,845

1,615

577 -42

1974--Mar.

1,986

583

Apr. May June

1,435

July Aug. Sept.

457 1,758 2,309

-214 398

552

Oct. Nov. Dec.

2,174 2,900 2,985

654 1,608

1975--Jan.

2,501

2,050

Feb. Mar.

3,329 *3,143

2,121

5 12 19 26

Mar.

.l . . x ll. . .... DYZU, T^ l 1

Aerves

1974--High Low

1975-Feb.

Member Bank Reserve Positions

Excess-

2,203 -

99 85 9

408 580

Apr.

-168

309

1,836

1,252 727

59 158 159

47 34p

-10,302

-6,006 -7,387 -5,548 -4,664

- 9,828

155p

9 7 5 7 p

51p 32p

7p 7p

-4,961p -5,869p

- 9,497p

70 60 167

325p 115p

-10,169

- 8,653 - 9,074

180

20 1 53p

- 9,091 - 9,920

-5,652 -7,138 -6,439 -5,866

229

230

- 6,046

-10,184 - 9,961

-11,297 -10,899 -10,024

-11,415p

16 23 30 -

NOTE:

.,.

.I..

-I _

Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Other The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at in syndicate, excluding trading positions. issues still Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues Friday figures. *STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

financed by repurchase security dealer positions Federal Reserve less net in syndicate which are

** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures,

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

TABLE 5

APRIL 11, 1975 SELECTED INTEREST RATES Per cent

SShort-Term Treasury Bills

Federal funds P e. (1)

Period

90-dav (2)

13.55 8.45

1974--High Low

9.63 6.53

190-119

Lone-Ter

_________________________

CD's New Issue-NYC

(3) 9.54 6.39

12.25 7.88

12.25 8.00

12.00 7.88

10.61 8.05

10.52 8.14

7.15 5.16

1-year

60-89 Day (5)

90-119 Day (6)

U.S. Government Municipal (10-yr. Constant Bond yarrMarty) ^.61 (9)

Aaa Utility Recently New TIse Onfrad (8) (7)

Day Commercial Paper (4)

FNMA Auction

10.59 8.43

Low

7.70 5.28

6.69 5.46

9.34 5.90

9.00 5.75

9.00 5.88

9.80 8.89

9.70 9.06

7.08 6.27

8.26 7.27

9,47 8.78

1974--Mar.

9.35

7.34

8.64

8.69

8.56

8.46

8.44

5.41

7.21

8.53

Apr. May June

10.51 11.31 11.93

8.08 8.21 8.16

9.92 10.82 11.18

9.81

9.78 10.90 10.88

8.99 9.24 9.38

8.95

10.83 11.06

9.13

9.40

5.73 6.02 6.13

7.51 7.58 7.54

9.07 9.41 9.54

July Aug. Sept.

12.92 12.01 11.34

8.04 8.88 8.52

11.93 11.79 11.36

11.83 11.69 11.19

11.83 11.91 11.38

10.20 10.07 10.38

10.04 10.19 10.30

6.68 6.69 6.76

7.81 8.04 8.04

9.84 10.25 10.58

Oct. Nov. Dec.

10.06 9.45 8.53

7.59 7.29 6.79

9.55 8.95 9.18

9.35 8.78 9.00

9.33 8.72

10.23 9.34 9.56

6.57

8.84

10.16 9.21 9.53

7.90 7.68 7.43*

10.22 9.87 9.53

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar.

7.13 6.24 5.54

6.27 5.56 5.70

7.39 6.36 6.06

7.43 6.00 5.88

7.45 6.25 6.03

9.36 8.97 9.35

9.45 9.09 9.38

6.82 6.39 6.74

7.50* 7.39*

9.25 8.93

7.73

8.82

6.46 6.28 6.29 6.15

5.65 5.58 5.46 5.59

6.60 6.38 6.38 6.25

6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00

6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25

8.89 9.02 9.04 8.94

9.12 9.10 9.08 9.06

6.34 6.27 6.40 6.55

7.42* 7.42* 7.27* 7.44*

5 12 19 26

5.88 5.44 5.38 5.53

5.70 5.64 5.62 5.76

6.25 6.18 5.98 5.90

6.00 5.88 5.75 5.88

6.13 6.13 5.88 6.00

8.91 9.27 9.60 9.60

9.17 9.31 9.41 9.62

6.54 6.65 6.80 6.95

7.50 7.57 7.80 8.05

2 9 16 23 30

5.59 5.28

5.58 5.74

6.01 6.48

6.03 6.10

5.75 5.88

5.88 6.13

9.80 9.65p

9.70 9.60p

6.93 7.03

8.12 8.20p

3 10

5.41 5.31p

5.60 5.71

6.40 6.45

1975--High

1975--Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

Daily--Apr.

~i*IYYLIL NOTE:

Ilr--r n~i-L~-

--- - L ~

Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceeding the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government

6.61 7.05

8.98 8.87 8.78 8.85

8.98

8.13 n.a. L

________________

-L

and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7, 8, and 10 Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the underwritten mortgages.

December 1974 and The Treasury has revised its procedure for computing the constant maturity yields. Data have been revised back through result in an average increase of about 8 basis points in the level of the 10-year yield.

APRIL

11,

1975

APPENDIX TABLE I-A MONETARY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES

RESERVES 1/

PERIOD

TOTAL

NONBORROW

AVAL TO SUP PVT DEPOS

ADJUST CREDIT PROXY

(3)

(4) (PER

TOTAL LOAN & INVEST

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

- --- - - - -- -- - -- - - - - - -- -- -- -- - - - -- -- - - - -- -- -- - - - - - -- - - - - -- -- - - -- - - - - -- - - -(11

(2)

10.9 7.8 8.6

7.7 7.2 10.8

1ST HALF 1973 2ND HALF 1973

6.4 8.8

1.2 13.2

9.8 8.2

1ST HALF 1974 2ND HALF 1974

10.9 5.9

0.5 21.0

(7) (6) (51 CENT ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH)

(8)

(9)

(10)

-- - - - -- - - -- -- -- -- - -- - - --- --

- -- - -- - -

(11)

(12)

ANNUALLY: 1972 1973 1974

11.3 10.4 10.2

11.1 8.8 7.4

13.2 8.8 6.8

14.0 10.6 9.1

12.9 11.2 9.2

12.9 11.9 9.3

13.0 7.8

13.4 8.4

13.1 10.0

10.9 6.9

10.9 7.1

11.2 7.0

10.0 11.6 5.1 8.6

9.7 11.8 5.7 8.4

10.3 11.8 6.6 7.3

9.2

9.1

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 13.5 6.8

16.6 9.6

12.6 4.9

14.5 5.4

15.0 1.4

6.3 3.1

8.2 20.4 6.7 4.2

17.5 12.0 5.6 -2.8

5.5 7.0 1.6 4.6

3.2

5.8

8.7 5.8

7.9 5.6

13.4 7.7

QUARTERLY: QTR. QTR. QTR. QTR.

1974 1974 1974 1974

1.3 20.5 8.3 3.6

1.1 -0.1 5.6 35.9

5.8 19.1 9.1 0.8

1ST QTR.

1975

-8.2

-1.2

-4.3

-4.6 31.3 21.8 21.7 -3.9 7.0 -3.1 -1.7 15.6

-9.4 16.6 -9.1 -7.6 12.5 -5.6 9.8 51.7 18.3 34.7

8.2 19.2 21.5 15.7 8.6 10.B 7.8 -1.5 -2.8 6.6

9.2 29.6 16.9 13.6 9.2 6.4 4.2 -0.2 5.2 7.6

18.4 17.9 12.2 5.7 16.0 9.4 -8.6 0.0 4.5 -12.8

8.0 -27.3 -5.1

19.4 -19.1 -3.7

0.0 -8.2 -4.8

3.6 -0.2 6.1

8.2 2.6 6.6

1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH

3.9

10.9 15.4 6.0 9.2 8.5

10.2

MONTHLY: 1974--MAR. APR. MAY. JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. P

NOTES:

7.5

9.2 6.1 4.3 10.4 2.1 0.9 1.7 4.7 6.8 2.1 -8.9 6.8 14.0

8.1 18.2 12.5 14.9 8.5 4.7 4.7 9.8 7.3 10.5 3.3 9.7 12.4

RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY.

6.1 10.3 14.0

16,

1969,

8.6 14.2 8.8 11.6 7.3 3.7 4.1 8.1 7.3 10.2

9.2 15.2 8.7 11.2 8.0 4.4 4.6 9.0 6.7 9.4

8.5 8.7 10.3

AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED

9.6 15.2 8.8 11.2 8.7 5.6 5.3 8.6 5.4 7.8

APRIL

11,

1975

APPENDIX TABLE I-B MONETARY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

RFSERVES

TOTAL

PERIOD

(1)

NONPORROW (21

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

PANK CREDIT MEASURES

I/ AVAL TO SUP PVT DEPOS (3)

ADJUST CREDIT PROXV

TOTAL LOAN E INVEST

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

ANNUALLY: 30.401 32,763

29.351 31,466

28,108 30,685

406.4 448.7

=59.0 634.6

255.8 271.5

525.7 572.2

844.9 919.6

569.7 636.0

888.8 983.4

985.5 1095.4

1013.1 1133.6

1074--JAN. FEP. MAR.

33,660 32,996 32,870

32,600 31.80w ?31,56

3C,850 30,920 31.131

453.* 4r4.4 457.9

643.3 652.4 662.4

270.9 273.1 275.2

575.5 580.9 585.5

925.2 932.5 940.0

641.9 649.1 653.4

991.6 1000.7 1007.9

1103.8 1113.7 1122.1

1142.9 1153.6 1162.8

APR. MAY. JUNF

33,72A 34.340 34,5r6

31,992 31.750 31.550

31,628 32,IQ4 32,616

469.2 475.9 481.2

672.3 679.1 682.9

276.6 '77.6 280.0

580.4 591.6 597.1

045.9 948.8 959.9

663.3 670.2 678.9

1019.8 1027.3 1037.2

1136.3 1144.5 1155.2

1177.5 1186.1 1197.2

JULY AUG. SEPT.

35,180 35.066 '5,270

31,879 31,730 A1,988

32,850 33,145 33,360

484.9 487.5

4P9.2

692.0 697.3 692.3

280.5 280.7 281.1

599.7 602.2 603.8

959.9 963.0 965.5

683.3 686.0 688.7

1043.5 1046.7 1050.3

1162.9 1167.2 1171.7

1205.9 1211.5 1216.9

OCT. NOV. DEC.

35,179 c 3 ,128 35,584

33,366 33,876 34,857

33.31P 33,241 33,423

488.3 491.2 494.3

692.3 693.4 686.0

282.2 783.8 284.3

608.1 613.0 614.3

971.2 978.3 982.5

604.3 698.5 704.6

1057.4 1063.8 1072.8

1180.5 1187.1 1196.4

1225.6 1231.1 1239.1

1075--JAN. FEB. MAR.

35,820 39,006 34,857

"4,421 34,8%8 4.751

33,473 33.196 33,06?

495.8 405.7 498.2

690.7 692.2 696.0

282.2 283.8 2R7.1

616.0 621.0 627.4

987.5 996.0 1007.6

708.9 713.2 717.4

1080.4 1088.2 1097.5

1205.1 1213.6 1223.6

1246.7 1255.0 1265.0

12 19 26

35,42 34.860 35.014 34,760

3t,4&4 34.770 34,78 34,580

33,413 33.136 33,152 33,146

494.3 495.r 496.0 497.2

281.8 284.2 283.6 284.7

616.8 621.2 621.0 623.4

709.7 714.1 713.3 714.7

MAR.

5 12 19 26P

35,001 34,809 34,579 34,937

34,931 34,749 34,412 34,782

33,192 33,077 32,760 33,140

494.9 498.5 498.0 500.0

285.3 288.1 286.2 287.3

624.0 628.0 627.0 628.0

714.2 717.2 716.7 718.3

APR.

35,056

35,005

33,233

500.0

287.6

629.5

720.0

1972 1973 MONTHLY

WEEKLY: 197%--FEB.

---------------

----------- ------- ------------------------------------------------------

i------- -- ---------------------

RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOTES:

-----

AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED

-----------------------

APRIL 11, COMPONENTS

CURRENCY

DEMAND DEPOS

TOTAL TIME DEPOS

TIME OTH THN CD'S

MUTUAL SAV PANK AND SEL SHARESj/

CREDIT UNION SHARES.J

CD'S

SAVINGS BONDS/

SHORT TERM US GOV'T SEC J,

- -- -- - -- -- - - - -- - -- - - - -- - - - - -- - - - -- -- - -- - -- -- -- - - - -- - - - - --- - - - -- - - -- - - - -- -- -- - -- - -- -(1)

(2)

(3)

1975

APPENDIX TABLE II-A OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES

(4) (5) (6) (7) (PER CENT ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH)

(8)

(9)

COM'L PAPERS

-- - -- - -- - (10)

ANNUALLY: 1972 1973 1974

15.7 16.2 15.3

8.2 8.3 10.1

16.7 8.5 5.6

18.0 13.9 11.8

31.0 45.3 41.5

17.6 9.4

76.1 10.6

0.5 30.9 16.5

15.0 38.8 11.5

6.0 4.1

30.7 27.0

5.1 70.7

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF 2ND HALF

1973 1973

8.4 7.8

7.1 3.8

19.8 11.4

10.6 11.6

10.4 6.3

1ST HALF 2ND HALF

1974 1974

9.7

9.9

5.2 1.1

18.6 11.0

10.9 8.1

5.9 5.1

13.8 9.1

54.9 22.1

4.3 5.2

17.7 14.1

19.8 2.9

3.8 6.6 -0.2 2.4

15.1 21.3 9.1 12.6

12.8 8.8 7.1 9.0

7.9 3.9 3.1 6.9

13.0 14.2 6.1 12.0

26.3 78.2 17.2 25.9

4.0 4.6 5.2 5.2

12.3 22.3 19.0 8.8

25.1 13.8 29.5 -22.1

13.1

-1.8

6.4

10.5

-12.2

19.2 14.2 9.3 18.5 9.1 0.0 9.1 9.0 13.4 13.2

-3.5 104.1 74.7 42.8 33.9 2.9 14.3 19.8 -9.7 67.4

22.8 44.7 10.8 10.7 25.4 18.7 12.2 28.3 -2.0

24.1 17.7 8.7 14.4 22.8 39.2 24.4 -2.7 -29.3 -35.5

17.5 8.6 12.8

34.6 -9.0 -29.9

15.8 7.8 7.8

OUARTERLY: OTR. OTR. OTR. QTR.

1974 1974 1974 1974

11.0 8.2 8.0 11.5

1ST OTR.

1975

9.4

1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH

2.0

9.5

12.6

12.8

MONTHLY: 1974--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

11.5 11.4 7.5 5.6 3.7 13.0 7.3 10.9 14.4 8.9

8.6 5.1 2.8 11.8 1.7 -2.2 0.0 2.2 4.4 .6

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. P

5.3 8.8 14.0

-13.9 5.6 14.5

7.3 26.6 18.0 18.0 13.3 7.1 6.8 13.5 7.6 16.2

---------------------------------------RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR

NOTES:

9.7 9.3 5.0 11.8 7.9 8.6 4.5 11.9 12.2 2.9 9.9 11.5 16.6

0.0

--------------------------------------------

-30.9 -5.8 0.0

-----------------

BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

APRIL 11, COMPONENTS OF

CURRENCY

DEMAND DEPOS

TOTAL TIME DFPOS

APPENDIX TABLE II-B MONEY STOCK AND RELATED

TIME OTH THN CD'S

MUTUAL SAV BANK AND SEL SHARESJ/

CREDIT UNION SHARES /

1975

MEASURES

CD'S

SAVINGS BONDSS

SHORT TERM US GOV'T SEC #/

COM'L PAPERj/

NONDEPOS FUNDS

(10)

(11)

----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ---------- ------ -- ----- --- ---------(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

56.9 61.6

198.9 209.9

313.8 364.5

269.9 300.7

297.5 322.8

21.6 24.6

43.9 63.8

57.0 59.9

39.8 52.1

1974--JAN. FEB. MAR.

62.0 62.7 63.3

208.9 210.4 211.9

371.0 376.0 378.3

304.6 307.8 310.3

324.9 326.6 329.2

24.8 25.0 25.4

66.4 68.2 68.0

APR. MAY JUNE

63.9 64.3 64.6

212.8 213.3 215.4

386.7 392.5 398.4

312.7 314.0 317.1

330.8 331.2 332.4

25.7 2'.9 26.3

73.9 81.3

60.8 61.0 61.2

55.7 56.2 56.7

41.3 41.6 42.1

JULY AUG. SEPT.

64.8 65.5 65.9

215.7 215.3 21;.3

402.8 405.2 407.8

319.2 321.5 322.7

333.7 334.2 335.0

26.5 26.5 26.7

83.6 83.8 84.8

61.5 61.7 62.0

57.9 58.8 59.4

42.9 44.3 45.2

OCT. NOV. DEC.

66.5 67.3 67.8

21".7 216.5 216.6

412.1 414.7 420.3

325.9 329.2 330.0

336.2 338.2 340.8

26.9 27.2 27.5

86.2 85.5 90.3

62.3 62.5 62.8

60.8 60.7 60.7

45.1 44.0 42.7

68.1 68.6 69.4

214.1 215.1 217.7

426.7 429.4 430.3

333.9 337.2 340.4

343.6 346.9 351.7

27.9 28.1 28.4

92.0 92.2 89.9

63.2 63.5 63.8

61.5 61.9 62.3

41.6 41.4 41.4

68.2 68.6 68.8 68.8

213.6 215.6 214.8 215.9

427.9 430.0 429.7 430.0

335.0 337.1 337.5 338.8

93.0 92.9 92.3 91.3

US GOV'T DEMAND

(12)

ANNUALLY: 1972 1973

27.6 38.3

MONTHLY:

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR.

78.5

39.1 39.9 40.7

WEEKLY: 0

1 75--FEB.

MAR.

5 12 19 26P

68.9 69.4 69.4 69.4

216.4 218.7 216.9 217.9

428.9 429.1 430.5 431.0

338.7 339.8 340.8 340.7

90.2 89.3 89.6 00.3

APR.

69.7

217.9

432.4

341.9

90.5

6.4

NOTES:

0.8

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7. TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY

---------------------------------------------------------

-------

----------

------------

Appendix Table III

Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate)

1973

1975

3.4

6.8

7.3

9.1

8.8

10.4

11.3

7.3

10.6

8.6

10.5

9.1

III

0.6

5.5

5.6

7.8

5.2

7.5

8.7

5.0

10.8

8.9

9.8

7.9

IV 1974

5.8

8.9

9.1

7.3

6.8

7.6

III

3.9

4.0

5.3

3.7

7.0

6.0

3.9

1.4

8.5

6.3

10.2

8.1

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

Appendix Table IV

Growth Rates in Money Supply for Alternatives

M1 0

Alt. A

1975

II III

8.1 7.2

11.4 10.8

11.0 11.3

14.4 12.7

13.7

10.8 10.2

13.8 11.4

13.4

10.4 8.9

13.0 9.7

12.9 11.0

13.5

Alt. B 1975 II

III

7.4 6.0

10.8

9.3

12.3

Alt. C 1975

II III

6.8 4.9

10.2 7.7

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in last months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

Appendix Table V

Growth Rates in Monetary Aggregates for Alternatives (First quarter 1975 to first quarter 1976) 1 Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt, C

8.0

7.0

6.0

11.0

10.0

9.0

13.0

11.5

10.5

9.0

8.5

7.5

11.5

10.5

9.5

8.5

8.0

7.0

Credit proxy

Growth rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1975, April 14). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19750415

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19750415,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1975},
  month = {Apr},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19750415},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}