bluebooks · May 19, 1975

Bluebook

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Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

May 16, 1974

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC

May 16, 1974

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1)

M1 expanded at an annual rate of about 5.9 per cent in April,

1/ and current data suggest about a 9 per cent growth rate for May.

Thus,

for the two-month target period M1 appears to be growing at around a 7½ per cent annual rate, a shade below the mid-point of the Committee's range of tolerance.

The higher rate of growth in M1 for May

in part reflects the

substantial volume of tax rebates being disbursed by the Treasury.

Growth

in time deposits other than large money market CD's has been somewhat slower than expected, 9

and M 2 appears to be expanding at an annual rate of around

per cent over the April-May period, the lower end of its

range of

tolerance.

These figures do not incorporate the regular quarterly benchmark revision 1/ Revisions of monetary aggregates that will be published this coming Thursday. in the series (based in large part on the results of the December call report and new data for foreign agencies and branches) lowered M1 by about $700 million in March of 1975 and as a result first quarter M 1 growth at an annual rate was lowered from 3.5 to 2.4 per cent. Growth in M2 and M3, however, was little changed by the revision. All tables on subsequent pages of this report (with the exception of Tables 1 and 2 following the charts) are based The new and old series are compared in Appendix Table VI. on the new series.

-2Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over April-May period 1/

Reserve and monetary aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent)

Range of Tolerance

Latest Estimates

6-1/2--9

7.5

9-1/2-11-3/4

9.4

RPD

1-1/2--4-3/4

-1.8

4-3/4--5-3/4

Avg. for statement week ending 5.54 23 Apr. 30 5.71 5.42 7 May 5.20 14

Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

(2)

The bank credit proxy appears to be expanding at an annual With business demand

rate of about 4 per cent over the April-May period.

for short-term credit remaining weak and the spread between commercial paper rates and the bank prime rate continuing relatively wide, bank loans to businesses contracted further in

April and early May.

The weakness in

loan

demand along with the strength in time and savings deposit flows led banks to continue adding to their holdings of Government securities, while allowing further runoffs in CD's.

Over the first

4 months of 1975 Government

security portfolios have expanded by about $16 billion, while CD's have dropped by about $6 billion.

Banks have apparently also found it

attractive

to advance funds to their branches abroad; preliminary reports from branches indicate that liabilities to their head offices in the U.S. about $2

increased by

billion in the first quarter. (3)

Following the April 15 FOMC meeting,

the Account Manager

initially sought reserve conditions consistent with a Federal funds rate

-3In following weeks, with incoming data

of 5½ per cent or a shade lower.

on the monetary aggregates suggesting that M1 growth over the April-May target period would be in tolerance,

the lower half of the Committee's range of

the Account Manager sought easier money market conditions.

In doing so, however,

the Manager tried to avoid aggressive operations that

might distort market expectations about monetary policy during the course of the Treasury's large May refinancing.

In the statement week just ended,

when the Desk sought a Federal funds rate declining into the 5-5¼ per cent area, an average rate of 5.20 per cent was realized. (4)

Short-term interest rates, after showing little change in

late April, have since declined 25-50 basis points.

Most recently, 3-month

bills have traded around 5 per cent--the lowest level since December 1972-and 3-month CD's and commercial paper around 5-3/4 per cent.

These markdowns

of short rates have reflected the decline in the funds rate, against a background of continuing weakness in short-term credit demands, to more moderate money growth in data.

the return

April, and somewhat disappointing economic

Market reaction to the decline in

the discount rate to 6 per cent

was mild. (5)

Bond yields rose in

declined 10-25 basis points. Treasury announcement that its

the last half of April, but have since

The recent rally began following the May 1 borrowing needs over the May-June period

would be $5 billion less than previously stated, and it sustained by the decline of short-term rates.

has since been

Against this background,

the Treasury's sale of $7 billion of coupon issues thus far in May has gone smoothly.

The well publicized problems with respect to New York City

have led to a virtual halt in

trading in New York City issues, but have

-4thus far had only minor spill-over effects on the municipal market as a whole. (6) Deposits at nonbank thrift institutions continued to expand at a rapid pace in April, reflecting lower market interest rates and the placement of tax refunds.

Growth in deposits at S&L's and MSB's combined

is estimated at an annual rate of 15 per cent in April, the same as the firstquarter experience.

While mortgage lenders have remained cautious, commit-

ments appear to have risen somewhat further in March and April. Mortgage market interest rates have risen somewhat over the past few weeks. (7) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financing flows over various time periods.

Appendix table III compares money supply growth rates computed

on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a last-month-of-quarter basis.

Past Twelve Months Apr.'75 over Apr.'74

Past Six Months Apr.'75 over Oct.'74

Past Three Months Apr.'75 over Jan.'75

Past Month Apr.'75 over Mar.'75

8.6

4.0

-.5

-8.2

8.4

10.8

9.3

9.7

-5.0

8.3

8.9

4.7

-1.2

-3.6

3.2

4.8

3.8

3.9

7.0

4.2

7.2

7.0

7.5

9.7

7.7

6.8

7.5

9.5

12.2

11.7

Calendar Year 1974

Total reserves Nonborrowed reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits

Concepts of Money (Revised Series) M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M 2 (M

plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's)

M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) M4 (2

plus CD's)

10.7

8.4

7.2

5.9

4.4

plus CD's)

9.0

8.4

9.2

9.5

9.2

10.2

6.6

4.8

3.5

4.8

9.2

4.4

1.8

3.9

2.2

1.2

-1.4

Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ 2/

Other than interbank and U.S. Government. Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on average of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-ofmonth figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments Summarized below for Committee consideration are alternative

(8)

short-run operating ranges of tolerance for key monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate.

More detailed figures on monetary aggregates,

including

growth rates for six month periods comprising the second and third quarters, are shown in

the table on p. 6a.

Appendix table V shows associated figures

for total reserves, nonborrowed reserves,

and RPD's. Alt. B

Alt. A

Alt.

Ranges of tolerance for May-June M1

8-10

7½-9½

7-9

10½-12½

10-12

9-11

3 -5

2¼-4¼

1¼ -3¼

4-5

4¾-5¾

5½-6½

RPD Federal funds rate (intermeeting range) (9)

The ranges of tolerance summarized above are generally

consistent with the longer-run 12-month growth ranges adopted by the Committee

at its last meeting.

included:

These growth ranges for the March '75-March

'76 period

M1, 5-7½ per cent; M2 , 8½-10½ per cent; M3 , 10-12 per cent; and

the bank credit proxy,

6½-9½ per cent.

short-run operating targets,

In all three of the alternatives for

the two-month monetary growth rates are above

longer-run ranges, mainly reflecting the temporary impact of large tax rebates paid out by the Treasury in May and June.

In some cases,

6-month

growth rates are also above longer-run objectives. (10)

Each of the alternative short-run operating targets would,

of course, imply different patterns of interest rate change and monetary

-6afor Key Alternative Longer-Run Growth Rates for Key Monetary Monetary Aggregates Aggregates

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

M2 Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Mar. Apr. May June

286.1 287.1 289.4 291.6

286.1 287.1 289.3 291.2

286.1 287.1 289.2 290.9

626.4 630.4 636.2 642.7

626.4 630.4 636.0 641.8

626.4 630.4 635.8 641.1

1007. 1017.( 1028.2 1041.3

1007.2 1017.0 1027.8

1039.6

1007,2 1017.0 1027.4 1038.0

Sept.

297.9

296.4

294.9

661.5

658.0

655.0

1077.2

1071.1

1066.1

Mar.

304.0

685.9

1097.8

1975

1976 1975

QII

Mar.'75-Sept.75

8.3

7.1 7.1 7.2

1975

9.6 9.1

9.2 7.9

QIII May June

7.7 8.6

6.7 5.5 6.2 8.8 7.1

Growth Rates t104 .8 11.7 11.2

10.1 10.1

11.0 12.3

10.7 10.9

9.4 8.7 9.1 10.3 10.0

M3 Alt. B

13.5 13. 13.9 13.2 15. 3

Alt. C

12.9 12.1 12.7

12.2 10.8 11.7

12.7 13.8

12.3 12.4

Credit Proxy

M4 Alt. B 716.2

Alt. C 716.2

Alt. A

M5 Alt B

1097.0

718.8 721.9 727.0

718.8 721.8 726.5

1105.4 1114.1 1126.3

1105.4 1113.7 1124.7

Alt. C 1097.0 1105.4 1113.3 1123.3

June

Alt. A 716.2 718.8 722.1 727.6

Sept.

744.9

742.3

740.2

1160.6

1155.4

1151.2

520.1

518.0

516.4

1976

Mar.

779.9

1212.2

537.5

537.9

1975

QII

1212.2 1212.2 Growth Rates 10.1 10.7 12.2 10.9 11.6 10.7

1975

Mar.

Apr. May

QIII Mar.'75-Sept.'75 1975

May June

6.4 9.5 8.0

6.0 8.4 7.3

5.5 9.1

5.2

5.0

8.5

7.8

5.8 7.5 6.7

9.4 13.1

9.0 11.9

9.6 9.9 9.9 8.6 10.8

Alt. A S Alt. B 498.1 498.1 1 500.1 L 500.1 501.7 S 501.5 506. 3 505.7

Alt. C 498.1 500.1 501.4

505.3

6.6 10.9 8.8

6.1 8.0

5.8 8.8 7.4

3.8

3.4 10.0

3.1 9.3

11.(

9.7

-7Alternative A, which contemplates

aggregate growth as the year progresses.

a near-term easing of money market conditions,

and an 8 per cent rate of growth

in M1 over the second and third quarters, would imply a considerable turn-around of interest rates later this year if growth in the aggregates over the 12-month period is to be kept at around the mid-points of the indicated longer-term ranges, assuming the GNP projection is correct. Alternative B implies a somewhat smaller rise in interest rates later. Alternative C involves rising interest rates over the near-term, lower growth in the monetary aggregates in the second and third quarters, and hence less upward interest rate pressure later. (11) near the 5-5

The Federal funds rate range for alternative B is centered per cent area in which funds have been most frequently

trading in recent days.

Given this funds rate, M1 in the May-June period

is expected to increase at a 7½-9½ per cent annual rate.

The rate of

growth in M1 is expected to moderate in the third quarter, even though nominal GNP is projected to expand markedly, as the public reduces balances temporarily swollen by tax refunds.

For the second and third quarters

combined, M1 under this alternative is cent annual rate.

indicated to expand at about a 7 per

M2 over the same period would be expected to expand at

about a 10 per cent annual rate, as inflows of consumer-type time and savings deposits to banks remain sizable. (12)

If the Federal funds rate shows little

change over the next

few weeks, we would expect other market interest rates to fluctuate within a narrow range.

After the Treasury auctions $1

billion of 2-year notes

-8next week,

will have essentially completed its

new cash financing for

this half year (apart from continuing cash additions to bill auctions through mid-June).

The corporate and state and local bond calendars

remain sizable, but recent issues have been accorded good receptions, and the steepness of the yield curve may continue to encourage some investors to acquire longer-term issues.

Business credit demands on banks and in the

commercial paper market are expected to remain weak, at least into early summer, as corporations continue to restructure balance sheets and liquidate inventories. (12)

Credit markets remain highly sensitive, however.

U.S.

Government security dealer positions have risen substantially in the wake of recent financing activity, with positions totaling about $8¼ billion on May 15 (or $2-3/4 billion more than a month ago).

Under the circumstances,

and given the very recent decline in the funds rate, any significant increase in the rate would probably lead to fairly sharp upward adjustments of interest rates as market expectations abruptly change. (13) Alternative C contemplates a rise of the Federal funds rate into a 5½-6½ per cent range.

Under this option, the rise in short-

term interest rates may be substantial over the next few weeks--with the 3-month bill rate rising into the 6-7 per cent area--and long-term rates would probably also rise significantly.

It is expected that such a

tightening of money market conditions would lead to M growth over the

second and third quarters at around

a 6 per cent annual rate.

As market

interest rates rise, net inflows of time and savings deposits to banks and thrift institutions would also diminish, as compared with alternative B. Mortgage market conditions would certainly tighten further.

-9(14)

Alternative A involves a further easing of money market

conditions, which would likely be accompanied by further downward adjustments in market interest rates more generally.

Declines in bond rates

might be rather limited, however, as corporate borrowers would be expected to accelerate offerings in order to take advantage of a more favorable market environment.

Over the second and third quarters, M1 growth would

be projected at around 8 per cent at an annual rate, while growth in M2 might be at an 11 per cent rate.

A substantially lower rate of

monetary growth would be required in the fourth and first quarters unless the Committee were to raise its longer-run targets, and, as noted earlier, this would probably require a marked upward readjustment in interest rates later this year.

(15)

Securities markets generally, and the municipal market

in particular, have shown little reaction thus far to the prospect of a default by New York City on its outstanding notes.

It is possible,

however, that an actual default could have wider market repercussions if investors back away from other issues judged to involve a fair degree of capital risk.

In addition, there may be diminished investor con-

fidence in institutions with large holdings of New York City obligations. Should markets become very unsettled, the Manager might need to engage in stabilizing operations, taking account of the customary directive language regarding "developments in domestic and international financial markets", in which case the aggregate specifications might temporarily have to be disregarded.

-10Proposed directive (16)

Presented below are three alternative formulations

for the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section.

In all three alternatives, it is proposed to

delete the reference to Treasury financing because the regular mid-May financing has been completed.

As will be noted, alternatives A and B

refer to growth in monetary aggregates "on average in recent months." Over the first 4 months of this year, growth rates (using revised data) were 2.9, 8.3, and 10.8 per cent for M1, M 2, and M 3 , respectively. Alternative A forth the To implement this policy, while taking account of[DEL: of] and financing Treasury coming

developments in domestic and

international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve somewhat] bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: more rapid growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead than has occurred on average in recent months. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of [DEL: forth the of] and financing Treasury coming

developments in domestic and

international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with somewhat

more rapid growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead than has occurred on average in recent months.

-11Alternative C forth the To implement this policy, while taking account of [DEL: of and financing Treasury coming

developments in domestic and inter-

national financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank more somewhat reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: rapid]MODERATE growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead months]. recent in average on occurred has than [DEL:

CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II-FOMC 5/16/75

CHART 1

RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

growth for Apr -M %% /

34 1% % growt

45/14/75).

1974

J 1975

RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios

I A

1975

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC 5/16/75

CHART 2

MONETARY AGGREGATES

NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-I 300 1295

280

I I I Illllllllllllllj

I I

I I I

I 1111

290

,260 1-

285

ER MONEY SUPPLY M2 280

640

620

600 11 %% growth

580

S60

0 1974

1975

i S

M 1975

CHART 3

5/16/75

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

520

-500

N1AK.' -

480

- 460

RESERVES

I, I "

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ~ 39

TOTAL

V I

i I

1974 1975 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinmuties associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios

5/16/75

CHART 4

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

PER CENT 14

INTEREST RATES Short-term

PER CENT

FUNDS

1974

1975

1974

1975

1974

1975

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

ABLE

BANK RESERVES

MAY 16,

1975

(ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) AV RESERVES RESERVES AVAILABLEE FOR PRIVATE Period

REQUIRED RESERVES ADJUSTED

FSEASONALLY

Total Reserves

Nonborrowed Reserves

Total Required

Private Demand

34,414 33,179 32,775 33,186 (32,786)

35,820 35,006 34,845 35,088 (34,809)

35,421 34,858 34,739 34,978 (34,770)

35,673 34,812 34,645 34,926 (34,632)

NONBANK DEPOSITS NSA SA

AGGREGATE RESERVES Perid

Other Time CD's and Gov't. and Nondeposits Interbank Deposits

9,117 8,996 8,868 8,796 ( 8,759)

4,966 4,902 4,727 4,685 I 4,557)

MONTHLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 33,423 33,184 33,031 33,119 (32,930)

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY

19,199 19,095 19,236 19,476 (19,438)

2,392 1,820 1,814 1,969' 11,878)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1974--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

19.1 9.1 0.8

20.5 8.3 3.6

-0.1 5.6 35.9

19.8 8.4 2.9

1975--IST QTR.

-4.7

-8.3

-1.4

-7.7

2.2 0.0 5.3 -4.2

9.7 11.0 6.5 -7.6

MONTHLY 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY APR.-MAY

(

0.0 -8.6 -5.5 3.2 -6.8)

(

-1.8)

(

8.4 -9.5)

19.4 -19.1 -4.1 8.3 I -7.1)

-0.6)

S0.5)

8.0 -27.3 -5.5

11.8 -29.0 -5.8 9.7 ( -10.1) (

-0.2)

-14.9 8.9 15.0 -2.3)

10.4 -15.9 -17.1 -9.7 -5.0)

6.3)

-7.4)

-6.5

(

WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS

1975--MAR. 19 26

NOTE:

32,737 33,107

32,641 32,904

34,579 34,923

34,412 34,768

34,559 34,779

19,156 19,424

8,844 8,871

4,717 4,669

1,842 1,816

APR.

2 9 16 23 30

33,164 33,074 33,201 33,095 33,091

33,009 32,682 33,196 33,349 33,569

35,001 34,791 35,139 35,144 35,303

34,950 34,761 35,117 34,979 35,062

34,722 34,673 34,920 35,074 35,095

19,331 19,432 19,444 19,592 19,478

8,872 8,813 8,827 8,764 8,759

4,682 4,712 4,712 4,668 4,647

1,837 1,716 1,937 2,050 2,211

MAY

7 14

33,053 32,696

33,350 32,516

35,078 34,506

35,045 34,489

34,693 34,533

19,344 19,403

8,713 8,742

4,610 4,578

2,025 1,810

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. DATA SHOWN IN PARANTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF APRIL 15, 1975 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD RANGE OF 1.50 TO 4.25 PERCENT FOR THE APRIL-MAY PERIOD.

Table 2

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.)

CLASSII-FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES

MAY 16,

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad

Period ___(M1)

Adjusted Credit

U.S. Govt.

(M2)

Proxy

Deposits

Total

Than CD's

CD's

Funds

TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other

Nondeposit Sources of

MONTHLY LEVELS-$BILLIONS 616.2 621.1 627.4 631.6 (637.2)

282.2 283.8 286.8 288.2 1290.4)

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY

495.8 495.7 498.1 500.1 (501.4)

426.7 429.4 430.3 431.8 1432.6)

0.7 0.6 0.7 2.1 2.1)

(

334.0 337.3 340.5 343.4 (346.7)

92.7 92.1 89.8 88.4 ( 85.9)

(

7.6 6.5 6.5 6.7 7.0)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1974--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

7.0 1.6 4.6

7.9 4.5 7.0

20.4 6.7 4.2

21.3 9.1 12.6

8.8 7.1 9.0

78.2 17.2 25.9

1975--1ST QTR.

3.5

8.5

3.1

9.5

12.7

-2.2

-8.9 6.8 12.7 5.9 9.2)

3.7 9.5 12.2 8.0 10.6)

3.6 -0.2 5.8 4.8 3.1)

18.3 7.6 2.5 4.2 2.2)

(

14.5 11.9 11.4 10.2 11.5)

31.-9 -7.8 -30.0 -18.7 ( -33.9)

(

7.5)

(

9.4)

3.2)

(

10.9)

( -26.1)

MONTHLY 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY APR.-MAY

( (

(

4.0)

WEEKLY LEVELS-$BILLIONS

1975--MAR. 19 26

286.2 287.3

627.2 628.2

498.0 500.0

0.0 0.7

430.5 431.0

341.0 340.8

89.5 90.1

6.7 6.8

APR.

2 9 16 23 30

287.5 288.3 288.4 287.4 287.5

629.7 631.0 631.8 631.0 632.0

500.0 501.5 501.2 498.6 498.2

0.8 2.7 3.0 1.4 1.9

432.4 432.1 432.0 431.5 431.6

342.2 342.7 343.4 343.6 344.4

90.2 89.4 88.6 87.9 87.2

6.4 6.3 6.6 7.2 6.9

MAY

7 P 14 PE

289.3 289.8

634.3 635.9

499.2 500.5

2.0 1.9

431.5 432.0

345.1 346.1

86.5 85.9

7.0 6.9

NOTE:

DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE

----

~---~---a--

CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

-~-~-~----ala_-~_-L

PRELIMINARY

- PARTIALLY ESTIMATED

I---

1975

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II

MAY 16,

- FOMC

1975

TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECT OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted)

Bills &Accept.

(1)

Open Market Operations 1/ Total Agency RP's Coupon al Issues Issues Net 3/

(2)

(3)

(4)

A in reserve categories Daily Average Reserve Effects 2/ available res. 5/ Other4/ Req. res. against Member A pen Market Factors U.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) perations Bank Borrowing

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

()

(9)

Target available reserves 5/

(11)

Monthly 1974--Oct. Nov. Dec.

-1,727 1,217 729

212 280

-331 360

-243 981 -976

-1,970 2,739 393

-633 327 2,963

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar.

-1,102 -1,015 112

406 316 1,301

-14 295 207

1,097 714 -1,758

388 309 -136

-636 -1,241 53

Apr. May June

1,319

1,070

5,442

7,829

2,229

5 12 19 26

19 -289 431 276

-1,043* -1,043* 928

376 - 2 --

-4,202 -3,417 3,929 3,292

-3,807 -2,666** 3,318** 4,496

193 -3,025** 676** 3,679

2 9 16 23 30

-282 -669 416 317 1,231

373 539 530

208 -----

-2,371 -1,906 3,750 - 324 4,189

-2,072 -2,575 4,166 532 5,950

- 493 -2,016 620 2,383 4,097

7 14 21 28

274 425

-50

-27 --

-2,827 -698

-2,580 -223

966 -905

-1,494 - 507 - 583

1,990 201 -2,395

177 -183 66

314 204 81

315 395 450

1,548 499 773

258 -356 5

341 -1,627 - 766

965 -670 -495

-1,767

414

495 -170

110 9 106 12

106 2,721 - 754 -3,361

128 40 - 80 46

61 -353 108 260

104 21 11 144 76

868 1,613 23 -2,481 -3,910p

163 - 90 111 -199 p

108 -334 521 245 220p

-208 -15

-951p Illp

26p 21p

-219p -830p

313 243 41

Weekly 1975--Mar.

Apr.

May

1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/

Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. Represents change in daily average level for preceding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for Apr. and May reflects the target adopted at the Apr. 15, 1975 FOMC meeting Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. *

Special certificate (Direct Treasury borrowing from F.R.)

Reflects special certificate purchase.

p - preliminary.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II--FOMC TABLE 4 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted)

MAY 16, 1975

II~ Period

490 7,232 1,280 -

1974--Qtr. Qtr.

1975--Jan. Feb.

Mar.

-1,205 -1,003 115

Apr.

1,300

1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/

167 129 196

1,582 1,415 1,747

46 120 439

592 400 1,665

-2,093

May

539 500 434

497

1975--Qtr. I

Apr.

789 579 797

874 945

Qtr. Qtr.

1975--Mar.

87 207 320

5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30

7 14 21 28

795

625

148

169

1,059 864 3,082

1,631 9,273 6,303

-1,358 46 - 154

135 229 165 130

45 103 117 53

318 870 1,203 691

88 2,188 2,620 1,402

285

584

508

- 710 - 404

1,097 714 -1,758

485

274

164

- 2

1,070

167

1,620 --

121

- 2

280

361 --

293 642

410

139

929

114

164

5,442

395 754

-4,202 -3,417 3,929 3,292

1,204 300

416 856

-2,371 -1,906 3,750 -324

1,761

4,189

247 476

-2,827 698 -

- 669

422 311 1,192

209 7r

168 1in A

539

1,431 358 986 238

2,390

- 612

442 265 -

1,765

168 101 318

406 316 1,043

312

253 244 659

Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions with market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects: changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MAY 16, 1975 TABLE 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars)

U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions

ositions Municipal Bonds j (4)

Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB* Basic Reserve Deficit 38 Others 8 New York Total Seasonal (9) (8) (6) (7)

Bills (1)

Coupon Issues (2)

Dealer Corporate Bonds (3)

1974-High Low

3,678 -289

2,203 -309

253 0

384 27

628 -168

3,906 647

176 13

-7,870 -2,447

-12,826 - 6,046

1975-High Low

4,470 1,586

2,845 532

464 0

389 48

577 -42

609 18

22 5

-7,387 -1,918

-11,390 - 7,976

1974--Apr. May June

1,435 408 580

99 85 9

39 142 66

78 83 124

182 178 204

1,736 2,590 3,020

40 102 134

-3,952 -3,171 -4,445

-11,603 - 9,091 - 9,920

July Aug. Sept.

457 1,758 2,309

-214 398 552

14 33 23

79 108 85

162 197 180

3,075 3,337 3,282

149 164 139

-3,522 -4,231 -4,235

- 9,555 - 9,224 - 8,250

Oct. Nov. Dec.

2,174 2,900 2,985

654 1,608 1,836

25 83 175

166 268 149

197 205 258

1,813 1,252 727

117 67 32

-4,602 -6,322 -5,960

- 8,689 - 9,715 -10,169

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar.

2,501 3,329 3,143

2,050 2,121 2,521

97 144 307

79 166 195

147 198 195

398 147 96

14 11 7

-5,378 -6,318 -5,732

- 9,744 - 9,533 -10,302

Apr.

*2,737

*1,617

115

167p

11Op

-4,11 9 p

- 9,71 4 p

Period

___

Excess** Reserves (5)

1975--Mar.

5 12 19 26

3,146 3,215 3,139 3,066

2,249 2,159 2,839 2,771

266 290 464 208

117 168 389 107

409 230 20 144

70 60 167 155

9 7 5 7

-6,006 -7,387 -5,548 -4,664

- 9,828 -11,297 -10,899 -10,024

Apr.

2 9 16 23 30

3,287 3,138 *2,772 *2,296 *2,291

2,501 2,336 *1,862 *1,286 * 601

47 13 26 55 0

154 92 91 122 109

279 118 219 70 208p

51 30 22 165 24 1p

7 7 5 6 6p

-4,643 -5,716 -5,025 -3,590 -1,918p

- 9,617 -11,390 -11,326 -10,893 - 7,976p

7 *4,129 * 532 80 130 38 5p 33p 10p -2,815p - 9,550p 6 4 96 14 *4,470 *2,144 2p 168p -23p 18p 8p , 5p - 9,753p 21 28 Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net issues still Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures.

May

NOTE:

*STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

**Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) MAY 16, 1975 TABLE 6 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent) Long-Term

Short-Term

Treasury Bill Federal funds

Prlod

(1)

90-day (2)

-year

1 90-119 Day Commercial Paper (4)

CD's New Issue-NYC 60-89 Day (5)

90-119 Day (6)

Aaa Utility Recently New Offered Issue (7) (8) 10.61 10.52 8.05 8.14

Municipal Bond Buyer (9) 7.15 5.16

U.S. Government (10-yr. Constant Maturity) (10) 8.14 6.93

FNMA Auctions Yields (11) 10.59 8.43

1974--High Low

13.55 8.45

9.63

12.25

6.53

7.88

8.00

12.00 7.88

1975--High Low

7.70 5.20

7.02 5.18

9.34 5.90

9.00 5.50

9.00 5.75

9.80 8.89

9.71 9.06

7.08 6.27

8.28 7.27

9.47 8.78

1974--Apr. May June

10.51 11.31 11.93

8.33 8.23 7.90

9.92 10.82 11.18

9.81 10.83 11.06

9.78 10.90 10.88

8.99

8.95

9.24

9.13

9.38

9.40

5.73 6.02 6.13

7.51 7.58 7.54

9.07 9.41 9.54

July Aug. Sept.

12.92 12.01 11.34

7.55 8.96 8.06

11.93 11.79 11.36

11.83 11.69 11.19

11.83 11.91 11.38

10.20. 10.07 10.38

10.04 10.19 10.30

6.68 6.69 6.76

7.81 8.04 8.04

9.84 10.25 10.58

Oct. Nov. Dec.

10.06 9.45 8.53

7.46

9.55

7.47

8.95

7.15

9.18

9.35 8.78 9.00

9.33 8.72 8.84

10.16 9.21 9.53

10.23 9.34 9.56

6.57 6.61 7.05

7.90 7.68 7.43*

10.22 9.87 9.53

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar.

7.13

7.39 6.36 6.06

7.43 6.00 5.88

7.45 6.25 6.03

9.36

5.54

6.26 5.50 5.49

8.97 9.35

9.45 9.09 9.38

6.82 6.39 6.74

7.50* 7.39* 7.73

9.25 8.93 8.82

Apr.

5.49

5.61

6.11

5.85

6.03

9.67

9.66

6.94

8.23

9.06

5 12 19 26

5.88 5.44 5.38 5.53

5.54 5.53 5.42 5.47

5.70 5.64 5.62 5.76

6.25 6.18 5.98 5.90

6.00

5.88

6.13 6.13

8.91 9.27

5.75

5.88

9.60

5.88

6.00

9.60

9.17 9.31 9.41 9.62

6.54 6.65 6.80 6.95

7.50 7.57 7.80 8.05

2 9 16 23 30

5.59 5.44 5.54 5.71

5.58 5.74 5.52 5.57 5.60

6.01 6.48 6.33 6.44 6.44

6.03 6.16 6.18 6.13 6.08

5.75 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.03

5.88 6.13 6.13 6.00 6.00

9.80 9.65 9.51 9.66 9.80

9.70 9.60 9.55 9.71 9.o9

6.93 7.03 6.86 6.97 6.95

8.12 8.21 8.19 8.28

7 14 21 28

5.42 5.20

5.41 5.18

6.21 5.90

5.98

5.75 5.50

5.88 5.75

9.65 9.54p

9.60 9.5 8 p

6.86 6.88

8.09 0

5.37 5.10p

5.43 5.05

6.12 5.87

6.00

Mar.

Apr.

May

Daily--May

6.24

5.28

5.90

5.75

8.78 8.85 8.98 9.13

0.2

8. 6p

9.29

8.09 n.a.

7, 8, and 10 Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns Thursday following the end of the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for The FNMAauction yield is the the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceeding the end of the statetment week. average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. 1974 and result * The Treasury has revised its procedure for computing the constant maturity yields. Data have been revised back through December yield. 10-year the of the level in points basis 8 about of increase in an average p- preliminary.

NOTE:

APPENDIX TABLE 1-A

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES ' RESERVES

Nonborrowe orrowed

Available to Support Pvt.

Perd Period Total

BANK CREDIT MEASURES Adj. Credit proxy

Deposits 1

Total Loans and Invest-

MAY 16,

1975

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

12.5 11.6 10.7

14.0 10.6 9.0

12.9 11.2 9.1

12.9 11.9 9.2

mentsY 4

(Per cent annual rates of growth)

Series Revised

ANNUALLY: 10.8 7.8 8.6

7.5 7.2 10.8

10.1 9.2 8.9

11.3 10.4 10.2

14.6 13.5 9.2

8.7 6.1 4.8

11.1 8.8 7.2

1ST HALF 1973 2ND HALF 1973

6.4 8.8

1.2 13.2

9.8 8.2

13.5 6.8

16.6 9.6

7.4 4.7

9.1 8.3

9.7 7.6

14.2 8.5

13.0 7.8

13.4 8.4

13.1 10.0

1ST HALF 1974 2ND HALF 1974

10.9 5.9

0.5 21.0

17.7 0.2

14.5 5.4

15.0 3.1

6.3 3.1

8.7 5.5

7.9 5.4

13.3 7.5

10.9 6.7

10.9 7.0

11.2 6.9

IST OTR. 1974 2NDO TR. 1974 3RD QTR. 1974 4TH OTR. 1974

1.3 20.5 8.3 3.6

1.1 -0.1 5.6 35.9

17.5 12.0 7.3 -1.1

5.5 7.0 1.0 5.3

9.3 7.9 4.2 6.7

8.9 6.8 3.8 6.9

10.9 15.3 5.8 9.1

11.6 4.9 8.4

9.7 11.8 5.6 8.3

10.3

0.8

8.2 20.4 6.7 4.2

10.0

29.1 -0.4

1ST OTR. 1975

-8.3

-1.4

-4.7

3.1

4.4

2.4

8.4

10.4

7.0

9.3

9.0

8.3

31.3 21.8 7.5 21.7 -3.9 7.0 -3.1 -1.7 15.6

16.6 -9.1 -7.6 12.5 -5.6 9.8 51.7 18.3 34.7

19.2 21.5 44.7 53.4 -59.7 7.8

29.6 16.9 13.6 9.2 6.4 4.2 -0.2 5.2 7.6

17.9 12.1 5.7 17.6 11.1 -6.9 1.4 5.0 -9.6

6.1 4.3

7.5 3.7 9.0 4.9 3.6 2.9 7.1 7.7 5.9

18.2 12.5 14.7 8.5 4.4 4.4 9.8 5.7 11.5

14.2 8.8 11.6 7.2 3.5 4.0 8.0 6.2 10.8

15.2

1.7 0.4 0.9 3.8 8.5 3.4

8.0 4.5 11.2 5.0 4.6 3.0 8.4 7.9 3.7

11.2 7.9 4.2 4.5 8.8 5.9 10.0

15.2 8.8 11.2 8.6 5.4 5.3 8.4 4.7 8.3

3.6 -0.2 5.8 4.8

3.6 2.8 6.7 2.2

-9.3 5.5 11.0 4.2

3.9 9.4 11.8 7.7

6.5 10.5 14.0 11.7

7.7 6.9 6.4 4.4

8.7 8.7 10.4 9.2

9.3 8.5 9.1 10.4

8.0 8.1 8.7 10.0

1972 1973 1974

13.2 8.8 6.8

SENT-ANNUALLYt

QUARTERLY:

5.8

11.8 6.4 7.2

MONTHLY: 1974-APR MAY. JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1975-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. P

8.0 -27.3 -5.5 8.4

NOTESS

-1.5 -2.8 6.6

0.0 -8.6

19.4 -19.1 -4.1 8.3

-5.5 3.1

10.4

______

____

_____

RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EUROOOLLAP AORROMINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. 0 - DFITMTNARY.

8.7

______

1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED

MAY 16,

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

1975

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

RESERVES Period Total

Non borrowed

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

BANK CREDIT MEASURES

1/ Available to Support Pvt Deposits

Adj Credit proxy

Total Loans and InvestmentsY

ANNUALLY:

888.8 983.4

985.5 1095.4

1013.1 1133.6

Series Revised

1972 1973

30,401 32,763

29,351 31,466

28,108 30,685

406.4 448.7

559.0 634.6

255.8 271.5

525.7 572.2

844.9 919.6

569.7 636.0

32,996 32,870

31,805 31,556

30,920 31,131

454.4 457.9

652.4 662.4

273.1

580.8 585.5

932.5 940.0

649.0

275.2

653.4

1000.7 1007.9

1113.6 1122.1

1153.6 1162.8

APR. MAY. JUNE

33,728 34,340 34,556

31,902 31,750 31,550

31,628 32,194 33,393

469.2 475.8 481.2

672.3 679.1 682.9

276.6 277.6 280.0

589.4 591.6 597.1

945.9 948.8 955.9

663.3 670.2 678.4

1019.8 1027.3 1037.2

1136.3 1144.5 1155.2

1177.5 1186.1 1197.2

JULY AUG. SEPT.

35,180 35,066 35,270

31,870 31,730 31,988

34,880 33,145 33,360

484.9 487.5 489.2

692.9

280.4

690.2

280.5

695.2

280.7

599.6 601.9 603.4

959.8 962.7 965,0

683.2 685.7 688.2

1043.4 1046.4 1049.9

1162.8 1166.9 1171.3

1205.8 1211.2 1216.5

OCT. NOV. OEC.

35,179 35,178 35584

339366 33,876 34,857

33,318 33,241 33,423

488.3 491.2 494.3

696.0 697.4

607.6 611.6 613.5

970.7 976.9 981.7

693.8

691.8

281.6 283.6 284.4

1056.9 1062.4 1072.0

1179.9 1185.7 1195.6

1225.0 1229.8 1238.3

35,820 35,006 34,845

35,421 34,858 34,739

33,423 33,184 33,031

495.8 495.7 498.1

693.Q 605.5 699.4

282.2 283.5 286.1

615.5 620.3 626.4

987.0 995.6 1007.2

708.3

712.4 716.2

1079.8 1087.6 1097.0

1204.9 1213.4 1222.6

1246.6 1255.0 1264.1

35,088

34,078

33,117

500.1

700.7

287.1

630.4

1017.0

718.8

1105.4

1233.2

1274.6

12 19 26

34,809 34,579 34,923

34,749 34,412 34,768

33,056 32,737 33,107

498.5 498.0 500.0

287.6 285.6 286.7

627.1 626.3 627.2

716.3 715.8 717.4

2 9 16 23 30P

35,001 34,791 35,139 35,144 35,303

34,950 34,761 35,117 34,979 35,062

33,164 33,074 33,201 33,095 33,084

500.0

501.5 501.2 498.6 498.2

286.2 287.4 287.1 286.4 786.7

628.2 629.9 630.4 629.9 631.0

718.4 719.3 719.0 717.7 718.2

35,078

35,045

33,053

499.2

288.0

633.1

719.5

MONTHLY: 1974 -FEB. MAR.

1975-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR.

697.1 703.8

WEEKLY: 1975--MAR.

APR.

MAY

.1I_

NOTES:

______

RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, COMMERCIAl PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT 1/ P - PRELIMINARY.

1969,

AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED

MAY 16,

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

1975

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period

Demand Deposits

Currency

Time Tol Deposits

Time Time thr CD's

Mutual Savings nk and S & L

Credit Union Shares

CD's

Sharesl

Savings Bonds

9 8

Short Term Commercia U.S.Gov't Paperc Securities y

(Per cent annual rates of growth)

Series Revised ANNUALLY:

8.2 8.3 10.2

8.9 5.5 3.1

15.7 16.2 15.1

13.5 11.4 9.4

16.7 8.5 5.6

18.0 13.9 11.8

31.0 4'.3 41.5

0.5 30.9 16.5

15.0 38.8 11.5

1ST HALF 1973 2ND HALF 1973

8.4 7.8

7.1 3.8

19.8 11.4

10.6 11.6

10.4 6.3

17.6 9.4

76.1 10.6

30.7 27.0

5.1 70.7

1ST HALF 1974 2ND HALF 1974

9.7 10.2

5.2 1.0

18.6 10.5

10.9 7.6

5.9 5.1

13.8 9.1

54.9 22.1

17.7 14.1

19.8 2.9

3.8 6.6 -1.1 3.2

15.1 21.3 9.1 11.7

12.8 8.8 7.1 7.9

7.9 3.9 3.1 6.9

13.0 14.2 6.1 12.0

26.3 78.2 17.2 25.9

12.3 22.3 19.0 8.8

25.1 13.8 29.5 -22.1

0.2

10.1

13.6

13.1

18.9

-2.2

7.2

17.7 8.7 14.4 22.8 39.2 24.4 -2.7 -29.3 -35.5 -28.1 -5.8 0.0 -2.9

1972 1973 1974

SEMI-ANNUALLY:

OUARTERLY: OTR. OTR. QTR. OTR.

1974 1974 1974 1974

11.0 8.2 8.0 12.1

1ST OTR*

1975

9.4

IST 2ND 3RD 4TH

-11.2

MONTHLYI 1974--APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

11.4 7.5 5.6 3.7 13.0 7.3 10.9 16.2 8.9

5.1 2.8 11.8 1.1 -3.3 -1.1 2.2 5.6 1.7

26.6

18.0 18.0 13.3 7.1 6.8 13.5 4.4 16.8

9.3 5.0 11.8 7.9 8.6 4.5 11.9 7.7 4.0

5.8 1.5 4.3 4.7 1.8 2.9 4.3 7.1 9.2

14.2 9.3 18.5 9.1 0.0 9.1 9.0 13.4 13.2

104.1 74.7 42.8 33.9 2.9 19.8 -9.7 67.4

44.7 10.8 10.7 25.4 18.7 12.2 28.3 -2.0 0.0

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR.

5.3 10.6 12.2 1.7

-13.9 3.9 10.6 5.0

18.9 8.2 3.1 4.7

15.3 12.6 12.5 10.6

9.9 11.5 17.6 18.1

17.5 17.2 21.2 20.8

31.9 -7.8 -30.0 -18.7

23.7 7.8 -9.6 36.9

NOTES:

RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING 1/ GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY.

14.3

ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER

16,

1969,

AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED

OCTOBER 1, 1970. MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH

AND END OF

MAY 16,

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

1975

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period

Currency

Time

Total Total Deposits DositsDeposits

Time Time

a CD's 4

Mutual

Savings

Short

Credit

nk Bank and S &L Shares i 5

Union union Shares

CD's CD's

Savings Bonds

Term Commercia yit Pae U.S.Gov't

Non-

US Got Securities

Paper

pot Funds

U.S. Gov't Gov'

Deand 12

Series Revised

ANNUALLYt 56.9 61.6

198.9 209.9

313.8 364.5

269.9 300.7

297.5 322.8

21.6 24.6

43.9 63.6

57.0 59.9

39.8 52.1

27.6 38.3

4.3 6.6

5.6 3.9

62.7 63.3

210.4 211.9

375.9 378.3

307.7 310.3

326.6 329.2

25.0 2< .4

68.2 68.0

60.3 60.5

52.7 53.7

39.9 40.7

6.9 7.5

2.2 3.2

APR. MAY JUNE

63.9 64.3 64.6

212.8 213.3 215.4

386.7 392.5 398.4

312.7 314.0 317.1

330.8 331.2 332.4

25.7 25.9 26.3

73.9 78.5 81.3

60.8 61.0 61.2

55.7 56.2 56.7

41.3 41.6 42.1

8.1 8.8 6.4

4.6 5.6 5.3

JULY AUG. SEPT.

64.8 65.5 65.9

215.6 215.0 214.8

402.8 405.2 407.5

319.2 321.5 322.7

333.7 334.2 335.0

26.5 26.5 26.7

83.6 83.8 84.8

61.5 61.7 62.0

57.9 58.8 59.4

42.9 44.3 45.2

9.2 9.0 8*6

4.2 6*2 6.3

OCT. NOV. OEC.

66.5 67.4 67.9

215.2 216.2 216.5

412.1 413.6 419.4

325.9 328.0 329.1

336.2 338.2 340.8

26.9 27.2 27.5

86.2 85.5 90.3

62.3 62.5 62.8

60.8 60.7 60.7

45.1 44.0 42.7

7.9 7.6 8.4

3.7 4*6 1.9

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR.

68.2 68.8 69.5

214.0 214.7 216.6

426.0 428.9 430.0

333.3 336.8 340.3

343.6 346.9 352.0

27.9 28.3 28.8

92.7 92.1 89.8

63.2 63.5 63.8

61.9 62.3 61.8

41.7 41.5 41.5

7.6 6.5 6.5

0.7 0.6 0.7

69.6

217.5

431.7

343.3

357.3

29.3

88.4

64.1

63.7

41.4

6.7

2.1

12 19 26

69.5 69.5 69.5

218.1 21t.1 217*1

428.8 430.2 430.7

339.6 340.7 340.6

0.0 0.0 0.0

89.2 89.5 90.1

0.0 0.0 0.0

6.2 6.7 6.8

1.7 0.0 0.7

2 9 16 23 30P

69.7 69.5 69.5 69.7 69.8

216.5 217.8 217.6 216.7 216.9

432.2 432.0 431.8 431.4 431.6

342.0 342.6 343.3 343.5 344.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

90.2 89.4 88.6 87.9 87.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 00 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0..0 6.0 0.0

6.4 6.3 6.6 7.2 6.9

0.8 2.7 3.0 1.4 1.9

69.8

218.2

431.5

345.1

0.0

86.5

0.0

7.0

2.0

1972 1973 MONTHLY 1974--FF. MAR.

APR. WEEKLY: 1975--MAR.

APR.

MAY

. . ..

-I

, -

LOANS SOLD TO BANKADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS MONTHLY WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. RELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUDATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. TION DEPOSITS. MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 1/ ESTIMATED P - PRELIMINARY

NOTES:

Appendix Table III

Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate) (Revised Series)

9.1

8.8

10.4

8.6

10.5

9.1

7.8

5.2

7.5

6.8

11.3

7.3

0.6

5.5

8.7

5.0

10.8

8.9

9.8

7.9

5.5

5.8

9.3

9.6

8.9

9.1

7.0

7.3

7.9

8.3

6.8

7.6

1.0

3.5

4.2

6.0

3.8

5.2

5.3

3.9

6.7

6.2

6.9

5.8

2.4

1.0

8.4

6.4

10.4

8.3

II III

1974

III

7.3

M 3.4

1973

1975

10.6 5.6

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in of the quarters.

all

three months

Appendix Table IV

Growth Rates in Money Supply for Alternatives

1975

II III

8.8 8.4

10.4 11.7

10.1 11.7

13.5 13.8

12.9 14.2

1975

II III

7.5 7.2

9.8 10.1

9.9 10.3

12.9 12.1

12.6 12.7

1975

II III

7.3 5.8

9.4 8.7

9.7 9.1

12.2 10.8

12.4 11.4

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in last months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

Appendix Table VI Impact of Benchmark Revisions on Money Stock Growth Rates (Seasonally adjusted, per cent annual rates)

Old

Revised

Old Old

Revised Revised

Old Old

Revised Revised

Annual: 1974

4.7

4.8

7.4

7.2

6.8

Half year: 1974--I II

6.3 3.1

8.7 5.8

8.7 5.5

7.9 5.6

7.9 5.4

Quarterly: 1974--III IV

1.6 4.6

1.0 5.3

4.5 7.0

4.2 6.7

4.0 7.0

3.8 6.9

2.4

8.5

8.4

10.3

10.4

1975--I

Monthly: 1974--June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

10.4 2.1 0.9 1.7 4.7 6.8 2.1

10.4 1.7 0.4 0.9 3.8 8.5 3.4

11.2 5.2 5.0 3.2 8.5 9.7 2.5

11.2 5.0 4.6 3.0 8.4 7.9 3.7

9.0 5.0 3.9 3.1 7.1 8.8 5.2

9.0 4.9 3.6 2.9 7.1 7.7 5.9

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.

-8.9 6.8 12.7 5.9

-9.3 5.5 11.0 4.2

3.7 9.5 12.2 8.0

3.9 9.4 11.8 7.7

6.4 10.6 14.2 11.9

6.5 10.5 14.0 11.7

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1975, May 19). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19750520

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19750520,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1975},
  month = {May},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19750520},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}