bluebooks · June 16, 1975

Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

June 13,

1975

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

June 13, 1975

CLASS I - FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Growth of M1 accelerated to an 11.3 per cent annual rate

(1) in May, in June.

and recent data suggest that growth may continue at around that pace For the two months combined,

expansion in

Ml thus appears to be

exceeding the high end of the Committee's 7-9½ per cent range of tolerance, as the table shows.

Likewise, with flows to bank time deposits other than

large CD's very strong in significantly above its annual rate.

recent weeks,

growth of M2 appears to be running

two-month range of tolerance--at about a 13 per cent

The rapid disbursement of tax rebates,

$8 billion in May and June, is

amounting to about

thought to be the key factor contributing

to the accelerated monetary growth.

In addition,

has cleared the way for disbursement in

recent Congressional action

the second half of June of $1.7

billion in one-time payments to social security recipients. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over May-June period Reserve and monetary aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent)

Range Tolerance

Latest Estimates

7-9½

11.2

9-11½

13.2

1½-4

-0.6

RPD

Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

4½-5½

for statement week ending 5.14 May 28 5.24 June 4 5.15 June 11

Avg.

(2)

The bank credit proxy appears to be growing at only

about a 5 per cent annual rate in the May-June period.

With loan

demands weak, banks have continued to run off large CD's and have allocated the bulk of their net deposit growth to investments in Treasury securities. (3)

Shortly after the May FOMC meeting, with the aggregates

strengthening, the Desk sought to achieve reserve conditions consistent with a Federal funds rate trading in the upper half of the 5-5¼ per cent range that represented prevailing money market conditions.

As the

aggregates continued to strengthen--growing at rates close to or above the upper limits of the Committee's ranges of tolerance--the Desk sought to achieve an average funds rate of 5¼ per cent or a little higher. In the statement week ending June, the funds rate did average about

5¼ per cent, but in the statement week just ended, it edged down to 5.15 per cent despite a very large absorption of reserves by the Desk. (4)

Private short-term market interest rates have shown

little change on balance during the intermeeting period, although bank prime rates were reduced ¼ of a percentage point to 7 per cent at most banks (and to 6¾ per cent at one major bank).

Treasury bill rates also

showed little net change over most of the intermeeting period, but during the past several days have posted net declines of 12-25 basis points

from the levels prevailing at the time of the last FOMC meeting. The 3-month bill has traded most recently at around 4.95 per cent.

The recent

downturn in bill yields reflects market adjustments to the prospective seasonal shrinkage in bill supply over the latter half of June.

(5)

In bond markets, yields showed little change during late

May, despite the continued heavy volume of corporate financing and the general erosion of confidence in municipal issues stemming from the problems of New York City.

Since then, bond yields have dropped

considerably, with the decline especially sharp in the corporate bond market.

This rally appears to have reflected the more moderate volume

of Treasury financing in prospect through July, the growing conviction in market circles that long-term rates may decline for some months ahead, and most recently the respite for New York City arising from creation of the Municipal Assistance Corporation. (6)

The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual

rates of change) selected monetary and financing flows over various time periods.

Appendix table III compares money supply growth rates

computed on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a lastmonth-of-quarter basis.

Calendar Year 1974

Total reserves Nonborrowed reserves

8.6

Past Twelve Months May '75 over May '74

Past Six Months May '75 over Nov.'74

Past Three Past Month Months May '75 May '75 over over Feb.'75 Apr.'75

-2.7

-3.9

-14.5

10.8

9.0

4.3

-3.0

-13.0

8.9

2.0

-2.5

-4.3

-10.3

4.8

4.4

8.9

11.3

7.2

7.7

8.4

11.0

13.3

6.8

8.5

10.8

13.7

14.9

M4 (M2 plus CD's)

10.7

7.9

7.4

5.9

6.8

M5 (M3 plus CD's)

9.0

8.6

9.9

10.2

10.5

10.2

5.4

4.1

4.5

2.6

9.2

3.7

1.6

4.3

3.8

2.2

-2.2

-2.9

-.1

-.4

-1.3

Reserves available to support private nonbank

deposits Concepts of Money M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/

M2 (Ml plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M 3 (M2 plus deposits at

thrift institutions)

Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions)

Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government, 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (7)

Alternative longer-run growth rates for the monetary

aggregates covering the 12-month period from June 1975 to June 1976 are summarized in the table below for Committee consideration. Alternative B encompasses generally the same growth rates that had been adopted by the Committee for the March '75--March '76 period at its April meeting.

The M 1 growth range--at 5 to 7½ per cent--is exactly

the same, but minor downward adjustments have been made to growth ranges for other monetary and credit aggregates.

These adjustments take

account of changing relationships among the aggregates based on the up-dated longer-run time period and re-assessment of the economic and financial outlook. Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

6-84

5-7½

4-6½

9-11

8-10

7-9

10-12

9-11

8-10

5½-8½

4½-7

Bank credit proxy (8)

6-9

The longer-run path for M1 in alternative B does imply

a somewhat more rapid rate of growth from March '75 to March '76 than contemplated by the mid-point of the 5-7½ per cent range adopted by the Committee at its previous meetings.

This is because M1 growth in the

second quarter seems likely to be at about a 9 per cent annual rate, as compared with the around 7 per cent rate earlier contemplated.

The

growth rate from March '75 to March '76 implicit in the currently proposed alternative B is around 7 per cent (based on mid-points). of course, within the adopted range, though toward the upper end.

This is,

-6(9)

Shorter-run alternative operating guides for policy are

tabulated below, with an indication of the most likely 6-month monetary growth rates that would be associated with each alternative.

More detailed

figures on the aggregates are presented in the table on pp. 6a and 6b.

And

alternative operating guides expressed in terms of nonborrowed reserves, as well as other related reserve measures, are shown in appendix table IV. Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Ranges of tolerance for June-July M1

8-10

7 -9k

10t-12

1014-12

6k-8k

6 -8k

5%-7%

4;-5%

5 -6k

6-7

RPD Federal funds rate (intermeeting range)

7-9 9-11%

Memorandum item: 6-month growth rates (June '75-Dec. '75) M1

10l

(10)

As an operating guide for the intermeeting period under

alternative B, the short-run specifications include a rise in the Federal funds rate to a range centered on 6 per cent.

Given the substantial

12½ per cent annual rate of increase in nominal GNP projected for the second half of calendar 1975, this alternative assumes that a tightening up on bank reserve and money market conditions over the near-term would

6a Alternative Longer-Run Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates

1975

1976

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

hay

289.8

637.4

1029.7

June July

292.5 294.2

292.4 294.0

292.3 293.8

644.4 649.8

644.2 649.1

644.1 648.8

1042.7 1053.5

1042.5 1052.8

1042.4 1052.1

Sept.

298.7

297.8

296.9

662.0

660.4

658.7

1075.1

1072.6

1070.0

Dec.

304.5

302.9

301.3

678.7

675.9

673.0

1104.1

1099.0

1093.8

March

309.4

306.7

304.0

693.6

689.0

684.8

1130.4

1122.0

1114.0

June

313.9

310.7

307.5

707.5

701.8

696.3

1154.9

1143.9

1133.1

10.1 9.4

9.1 8.7

12.4 10.8

11.5 9.8

10.6 8.9

1975

0111O QIV

8.5 7.8

7.4 6.9

6.3 5.9

10.9 10.1

1976

6.4

5.0

3.6

8.8

7.8

7.0

9.5

8.4

7.4

OIl

5.8

5.2

4.6

8.0

7.4

6.7

8.7

7.8

6.9

June '75-Dec.

'75

8.2

7.2

6.2

10.6

9.8

9.0

11.8

10.8

9.9

Dec.

'76

6.2

5.2

4.1

8.5

7.7

6.9

9.2

8.2

7.2

11.2 7.0

10.8 6.6

10.4 6.2

13.2 10.1

12.8 9.5

12.6 8.8

15.2 12.4

14.9 11.9

14.8 11.2

1975

'75-June

June July

6b Longer-Run Alternative Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd)

Credit Proxy

Alt. A

Alt. B Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

May June July

722.9 727.9 733.0

722.9 727.7 732.6

722.9 727.6 732.2

1115.2 1126.2 1136.7

1115.2 1126.0 1136.1

1115.2 1125.9 1135.5

501.3 504.6 506.4

501.3 504.6 506.0

501.3 504.6 505.6

Sept.

745.4

744.0

742.5

1158.5

1156.2

1153.8

513.0

512.0

511.0

Dec.

762.9

760.5

758.0

1188.3

1183.6

1178.6

523.0

521.4

519.8

1976

March June

779.1 794.9

775.1 789.9

771.6 785.1

1215.9 1242.3

1208.1 1232.0

1200.8 1221.9

531.9 542.3

529.3 539.2

526.7 536.1

1975

QIII QIV

9.6 9.4

9.0 8.9

8.2 8.4

11.5 10.3

10.7 9.5

9.9 8.7

6.7 7.8

5.9 7.3

5.1 6.9

1976

QI QII

8.5 8.1

7.7 7.6

7.2 7.0

8.3 7.9

7.5 7.0

6.8 7.8

6.1 7.5

5.3 7.1

'75

9.6

9.0

8.3

9.4

7.3

6.7

6.0

Dec. '75-June '76

8.4

7.7

7.2

7.3

7.4

6.8

6.3

1975

8.3 8.4

8.0 8.1

7.8 7.6

7.9 4.3

7.9 3.3

7.9 2.4

1975

June '75-Dec.

June July

9.3 8.7 11.0 9.1 11.8 11.2

10.2 8.2 11.6

11.5

10.8

10.2

be necessary if growth in the monetary aggregates is to be constrained in an environment of rising incomes and transactions demands.

Even if

the funds rate rises in the weeks ahead to around 6 per cent, staff projections are that M 1 growth over the second half of this year is likely to be on the order of 7 per cent, annual rate, assuming no further increases in the funds rate until late in the period. (11)

The relationship between alternative short-run operating

targets and longer-run objectives for the monetary aggregates is, of course, a relatively loose one.

Maintenance over the weeks immediately

ahead of prevailing money market conditions (as shown for the short-run specifications of alternative A) would probably not be inconsistent with the longer-run objectives of alternative B, but such an approach would appear to entail the need for a more substantial constraint on monetary growth later on, and hence a larger rise in the Federal funds rate later in the summer.

We have, therefore, assumed that maintenance of pre-

vailing money market conditions over the short-run would be more consistent with adoption by the Committee of higher longer-run growth objectives for the monetary aggregates, as shown under alternative A. (12)

Given prevailing money market conditions, M1 growth over

the June-July period is expected to be in an 8-10 per cent annual rate range.

Growth is expected to slow from the very rapid pace of May and

the first part of June as the effect of Treasury disbursement of tax rebates wears off.

However, disbursement of the $1.7 billion of one-

time payments to social security recipients in the second half of June,

as noted earlier, will tend to sustain private deposits.

Thus, any

significant slowdown in M 1 growth probably will be delayed until July. Tightening of the money market over the intermeeting period, as contemplated under alternative B, would work to lower these growth rates slightly, but most of the effect of higher interest rates on the monetary aggregates would develop later on. (13)

Over the next four weeks credit markets are not expected

to be subject to significant, additional demand pressures.

In fact,

between now and mid-year the Treasury will repay a modest amount of debt, on balance.

However, the Treasury will need to raise new cash

again in early July, with the bulk of this financing probably taking the form of additions to bill auctions.

Longer-term credit demands from

corporations and state and local governments may remain quite large, but private short-term credit demands will probably continue quite weak for some while as businesses continue to liquidate inventories and utilize the proceeds of capital market issues to repay short-term debt. Thus, on the basis of demands for credit, interest rates are not likely to be under any significant upward pressure over the weeks ahead, apart from a potential seasonal rebound in bill rates after mid-year. (14)

Although the pace of expansion in time deposit funds

(other than large CD's) at banks and thrift institutions should diminish with the ending of tax rebate and special social security benefit payments, inflows of such funds are expected to remain generally large.

Thus,

expansion of M 2 and M 3 is expected to continue sizable--under alternatives A or B--over the next month or two.

The continued availability of such

funds will permit banks to reduce outstanding large CD's further during

early summer, given weak loan demand at banks.

Thrift institutions will

be encouraged to continue expanding mortgage loan commitments, and mortgage interest rates could edge down somewhat further if conditions in money and capital markets remain stable. (15)

A significant rise in the Federal funds rate--for example,

to the 6 per cent mid-point of the alternative B range--would, however, alter market expectations and lead to upward adjustments in interest The adjustments would probably be most marked in short-term

rates.

rates, with the 3-month bill rate rising to perhaps 5¾-6 per cent by Adjustments in longer-term rates might be moderated by market

mid-July.

expectations of a continued slowing in the rate of inflation, a gradual reduction in the prospective volume of new offerings, and by the relatively substantial upward slope to the yield curve that now exists. (16)

Alternative C contemplates more tightening in money

market conditions over the near-term--with the funds rate range centered on 6

Such an approach appears

per cent--than under alternative B.

compatible with longer-run growth objectives that include holding growth in M 1 over the next year in the 4-6 as shown in the table in paragraph (7).

per cent annual rate range,

Under this alternative, growth

in M 1 over the March '75-March '76 period would be at the mid-point of the 5-7

per cent long-run range earlier adopted by the Committee.

But

this alternative implies enough further tightening in the money market so that growth in the monetary aggregates would be below the bottom of the 5-7

per cent range for M 1 in the first half of 1976.

-10(17)

Near-term tightening in the money market of the magnitude

suggested for alternative C would almost certainly lead to a fairly sharp reaction in other short-term markets and to an upward adjustment in long-term rates.

It could even engender expectations of a rise in

the discount rate from its current 6 per cent level.

Some adverse impact

on savings flows to banks and intermediaries could be expected, but shortper cent-term rates--typified perhaps by a 3-month bill rate around 6 3/2 would not be likely to rise so high as to sharply curtail such inflows.

-11Proposed directive (18)

Presented below are three alternative formulations for

the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. Alternative A To implement this policy,

while taking account of developments

in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks

to ACHIEVE BANK RESERVE AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS CONSISTENT WITH SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES OVER THE MONTHS AHEAD over conditions market money prevailing the about maintain [DEL: generally aggregates monetary that provided ahead, immediately period ranges run short acceptable currently within growing be appear to tolerance]. of Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee

seeks to ACHIEVE BANK RESERVE AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES OVER THE MONTHS AHEAD over conditions market money prevailing the about maintain [DEL: aggregates monetary that provided ahead, immediately period run short acceptable currently within growing be to appear generally tolerance]. of ranges

-12Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to ACHIEVE BANK RESERVE AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS CONSISTENT WITH A SLOWING OF GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES OVER THE MONTHS AHEAD over conditions market money prevailing the about maintain [DEL: generally aggregates monetary that provided ahead, immediately period ranges run short acceptable currently within growing be to appear

tolerance]. of

CHART 1

CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II-FOMC 6/13/75

RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-34

growth for May June

-w34

I _1 I

I M

1975

-30

Ii i

J 1974

I1 j

I I I i

, M

J 1975

I S

RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios

I J

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) II-FOMC CLASS 6/13/75

CHART 2

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY Ml

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -300

295

280

290

280

285

280

11%/% growth for

ne (6/11/75)

9% growth

M 1975

6/13/75

CHART 3

MONETARY AGGREGATES CREDIT PRO XY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

520

-500

4-80

460

I______________

RESERVES

C 0

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 39

- 37 TOTAL

NONBORROWED

I-

'V I

I,, I

a-"

1975 1974 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios

6/16/75

CHART 4

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

PERCENT 14

WEEKLY AVERAGES

INTEREST RATES Short-term

INTEREST RATES Long-term

PERCENT

WEEKLY AVERAGES

PERCENT

WEEKLY

FHA MORTGAGES -

FNMA MONDAY AUCTION

EURO-DOLLARS

FEDERAL FUNDS

3-MONTH

RATE

PRIME COMMERCIAL

PAPER 6 MONTH

UTILITY

SAaa

NEW ISSUE

F R. DISCOUNT RATE

GOVT. BONDS 10 YEAR AVERAGES 8

RESERVES

MUNICIPAL BOND BUYER THURSDAYS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

S-7

BORROWED NET BORROWED

q 1974

1975

TREASURY BILLS 3 MONTH

1 1 1

1 1 1 1974

I I

1LI 1975

I I

I I I I I 1974

I I I I I

I I I I 1975

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE I

BANK RESERVES

JUNE 13, 1975

(ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) A RESERVES RESERVES AVAILABLEE FOR PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS NSA SA

Period

AGGREGATE RESERVES

IREQUIRED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Total Reserves

Nonborrowed Reserves

Total Required

34,925 34,764 35,003 34,581 434,771)

34,777 34,658 34,892 34,515 1349719)

34,731 34,564 34,845 34,426 (34,632)

Private Demand

RESERVES

Other Time CD's and Gov't. and Nondeposits Interbank Deposits

1 MONTHLY

LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1975--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE

33,103 32 951 33,032 32P749 133,001)

33,096 32,694 33,098 32*605 132,740)

19,095 19,236 19,474 19,405 (19,753)

8,996 8,868 8,796 8,716 8,791)

4,815 4,643 4,602 4,471 1 4,318)

1,826 1,817 1,973 1,833 ( 1,771)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1974--3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

1975- -1ST QTR. 2ND QTR.

9.1 0.8 -4.7 0.6)

(

5.5 35.9

8.3 3.5

8.4 2.8

0.1 5.3

-8.3 ( 0.11

-1.4 0.7)

-7.7 1 0.8)

-4.3 10.8)

-19.1 -4.1 8.1 -13.0 S 7.1)

-29.0 -5.8 9.8 -14.4 S7.2)

-6.5 8.9 14.8 -4.3 21.5)

11.0 6.5

(

-7.6 -3.5)

MONTHLY

-8.6

MAR. APR. MAY JUNE

-5.5 2.9 S-10.3 S 9.2)

-27.3 -5.5 8.3 -14.5 ( 6.6)

MAY-JUNE

(

1975- -FEB.

-0.6)

-4.0)

-3.0)

(

-3.7)

(

S 8.6)

-15.9 -17.1 -9.7

-10.9 10.3) -0.3)

WEEKLY LEVELS--$MILLIONS 16 23 30

33,121 33,014 32,985

33,113 33,267 33,460

35,057 35,064 35,204

35,035 34,899 34,963

34,838 34,994 35,015

19,444 19,592 19,47C

8,827 8,764 8,759

4,628 4,585 4,566

1,939 2,052 2,220

MAY

7 14 21 28

32,914 32,601 32,635 32,739

33,209 32 421 32,370 32,415

34,915 34,437 34,603 34.314

34,881 34,420 34,481 34,230

34,604 34,438 34,532 34,153

19,342 19,367 19,411 19,433

8,729 8,734 8,697 8v717

4,529 4,500 4,455 4,428

2,003 1,838 1,969 1,575

JUNE

4 11

32,999 32,840

32,620 32,273

34,714 34.005

34,630 33,967

34,368 34,083

19,566 19,816

8,681 8,775

4,406 4,328

1,716 1,164

1975--APR.

NOTE:

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF MAY 20, 1975 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD DATA SHOWN IN PARANTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. RANGE OF 1.50 TO 4.00 PERCENT FOR THE MAY-JUNE PERIOD.

Table 2

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R)

MONETARY AGGREGATES

CLASS II-FOMC JUNE 13, 1975

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad (M1) (M2)

Period

1 MONTHLY

Adjusted Credit Proxy

U.S. Govt. Deposits

TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other CD's Than CD's Total

Nondeposit Sources of Funds

LEVELS-SBILLIONS 1975--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE

283.5 286.1 267.1 289.8

620.3 626.4 630.4 637.4 (644.4)

(292.5)

495.7 498.1 500.2 501.3 (504.5)

(

0.6 0.7 2.1 2.1 3.1)

428.9 430.0 431.7 433.1 (435.3)

336.8 340.3 343.3 347.6 (351.8)

92.1 89.8 88.4 85.5 ( 83.5)

(

6.5 6.5 6.7 7.4 7.4)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1974--3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

1.0 5.3

4.2 6.7

6.7 4.2

9.1 11.7

7.1 7.9

1975--1ST QTR. 2ND OTR.

2.4 8.9

8.4 11.5

3.1 5.1

10.1 4.9

13.6 13.5

-2.2 -28.1

(

5.5 11.0 4.2 11.3 11.2)

(

9.4 11.8 7.7 13.3 13.2)

(

-0.2 5.8 5.1 2.6 7.7)

-7.8 -30.0 -18.7 -39.4 -28.1)

(

11.3)

(

13.3)

(

5.2)

17.2 25.9

MONTHLY 1975--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE MAY-JUNE WEEKLY

(

8.2 3.1 4.7 3.9 6.1)

(

12.6 12.5 10.6 15.0 14.5)

(

5.0)

(

14.9)

(

-33.3)

LEVELS-$BILLIONS

1975--APR.

16 23 30

287.1 286.3 286.5

630.4 629.8 630.9

501.2 498.6 498.6

3.0 1.4 1.9

431.8 431.4 431.6

343.3 343.5 344.4

88.6 87.9 87.2

6.6 7.2 6.9

MAY

7 14 21 28

288.0 289.0 289.9 292.1

633.2 636.0 637.7 641.5

499.3 499.5 502.6 502.9

2.0 1.4 2.5 2.5

431.6 433.3 433.7 433.8

345.1 347.0 347.8 349.4

86.4 86.3 85.9 84.4

7.0 7.0 7.8 7.9

JUNE

4 11

292.1 293.0

642.9 643.8

505.3 507.0

3.6 6.0

434.5 434.5

350.8 350.8

83.8 83.7

7.5 7.4

P PE

1_________

NOTE: DATA SHOWN IN

PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

P - PRELIMINARY PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATED

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II

- FOMC

JUNE 13, 1975 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECT OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS

(Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted)

Bills & Accept. (1)

pen Market Operations 1 T's Agency Coupon Net 3/ Total Issues Issues (5) (4) (3) (2)

Daily Average Reserve Effects 2/ Other 4 Open Market A Member Factors Operations Bank Borrowing (8) (7) (6)

A in reserve categories available res._5/ Req. res. against U.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) (10) (9)

a Target available reserves 5/ (11)

Monthly 2,739 393

327 2,963

-507 -583

201 -2,395

-183 66

204 -81

395 450

-636 -1,241 53

-313 -243 -41

1,548 -499 -773

258 -344 -13

341 -1,627 -766

965 -670 -495

2,229 510

4 -50

-1,767 -1,193

54 6

414 -739

495 -170 215

-104

868

163

108

-21 -11

1,613 23

-90 111

-334 521

1974--Nov. Dec.

1,217 729

212 280

331 360

981 -976

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar.

-1,102 -1,015 112

406 316 1,301

-14 295 207

1,097 714 -1,758

Apr. May June

1,319 197

1,070 50

-2 -97

5,442 -3,357

7,829 -3,207

-282

373

208

-2,371

-2,072

-493

-1,906 3,750

-2,575 4,1611

-2,016 620

3871 309 -136

July Weekly 1975--Apr.

2 9 16

May

June

-669 411r

23 30

317 1,231

539 530

-324 4,189

532 5,950

2,383 4,097

144 76

-2,481 -3,927

-200 53

246 193

7 14

274 425

-50

-27 --

-2,827 -698

-2,580 -223

966 -905

-207 -17

-1,017 202

-6 70

-252 -790

244

4,175

-1,075

-91

-71

-724

-6

-582

1,155

105

-1,262

-522

-38

-4,652

-5,383

-1,364

-3,571

-4,153

-4,745

3,932

-1,101

70p -1,033p

-2

3,866

253

-68p

-472p

-18p

126p

-2,523p

-531p

-346p

18 25 1/ Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. 2/ Represents change in daily average level for preceding period. 3/ Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. F.R. accounts. 4/ Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other 5/Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for May and June reflects the target adopted at the May 20, 1975 FOMC meeting. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. p--preliminary. * Special certificate (Direct Treasury borrowing from F.R.) ** Reflects special certificate purchase.

CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II--FOMC JUNE 13, 1975 TABLE 4

NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/

($ millions, not seasonally adjusted)

Period

Net Purchases 3/ Within 1-year

Over 10

Net Change Outright Holdings Total Total 4/

Federal Agencies

Treasury Coupons Treasury Bills Net Purchases 2/

Net Purchases 3/

RP's Net 5/

1-5

5 - 10

Over 10

87 207 320

789 579 797

539 500 434

167 129 196

1,582 1,415 1,747

46 120 439

592 400 1,665

253 244 659

168 101 318

1,059 864 3,082

1,631 9,273 6,303

-1,358 46 - 154

497 874 945 43

9 160 49 102

232 232 118 215

133 109 62 131

25 54 73 45

399 555 302 492

-106 195 138

138 430 726 371

135 229 165 130

45 103 117 53

318 870 1,203 691

88 2,188 2,620 1,402

1,431 - 358 - 986 - 238

1975--Qtr. I

-2,093

795

625

312

1,765

169

285

584

508

1975--Jan.

-1,205

305

406

710

1,097

Feb. Mar.

-1,003 115

-19

129 361

113 451

74 212

316 1,043

- 404 1,620

714 -1,758

485

274

164

1,070

114

--- 1972 1973 1974

490 7,232 1,280

1974--Qtr. I Qtr. II Qtr. III Qtr. IV

Apr.

1,295r

May

Apr.

May

June

148

143

293

9 16

642 416r

23 30

311 1,192

108 40

7 14 21 28

265 396 236 -95

50 -

4 11

-704 -560

Total

Within 1-year

1 - 5

121 166

19 42

376 210

- 2

69 --

167 2

----

5 - 10

164

-2

2,387r

150

208

5,442 -3,357

300

-2,371

- 669

-1,906

--- --

--- 856 1,761

- 324 4,189

----

--- -

247 476 244 - 162

-2,827 698 3,932 -1,101

410r

3,750

209 276

168 106

55 109

--- --- ----

-731

-4,652

-3,571

539 530 -50 --

----

582

18 25 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/

Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions with market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects: changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 5/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC JUNE 13, 1975

TABLE 5 TABLE 5

SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions

Member Bank Reserve Positions

Dealer Positions

Corporate Bonds

Municipal Bonds (4)

Excess** Reserves

Borrowing at FRB* Total Seasonal (6)

Basic Reserve Deficit 8 New York 38 Others (9) (8) -12,826 -7,870 - 6,046 -2,447

Period

Bills (1)

1974--High Low

3,678 -289

2,203 -309

384 27

3,906 647

1975--High Low

5,013 1,586

2,845 532

389 48

609 18

-7,387 -1,757

-11,636 - 8,070

1974--May June

408 580

85 9

83 124

2,590 3,020

-3,171 -4,445

- 9,091 - 9,920

July Aug. Sept.

457 1,758 2,309

-214 398 552

79 108 85

3,075 3,337 3,282

-3,522 -4,231 -4,235

- 9,555 - 9,224 - 8,250

Oct. Nov. Dec.

2,174 2,900 2,985

654 1,608 1,836

25 83 175

166 268 149

1,813 1,252 727

-4,602 -6,322 -5,960

- 8,689 - 9,715 -10,169

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar.

2,501 3,329 3,143

2,050 2,121 2,521

97 144 307

79 166 195

-5,378 -6,318 -5,732

- 9,744 - 9,533 -10,302

2,737 *4,744

1,617 *1,752

35 91

115 170

-4,079 -4,130p

-10,426 - 9,633p

2 9 16 23 30

3,287 3,138 2,772 2,296 2,291

2,501 2,336 1,862 1,286 601

47 13 26 55 0

154 92 91 122 109

-4,643 -5,716 -5,025 -3,590 -1,757

- 9,617 -11,390 -11,326 -10,893 - 8 070

May

7 14 21 28

4,129 4,470 *4,728 *4,658

532 2,144 *2,352 *2,109

80 55 144 85

130 190 256 166

-2,601 -4,743 -4,093 -3,990

- 9,175 - 9,562 -10,198 - 9,302

June

4 11 18 25

*4,634 *5,013

*1,445 *1,163

175 60p

-4,738p -6,468p

- 9,136 p -11,636p

Apr. May 1975-Apr.

NOTE:

Coupon Issues (2)

4 12p

Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserves less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL(FR) JUNE 13, 1975 TABLE 6

SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent)

Long-Term U.S. Government (10-yr. Constant Maturity) (10) 8.14 6.93

1974--High Low

13.55 8.45

Short-Term 90-119 Day Treasury Bills Commercial 1-year Paper 90-day (2) (4) 9.63 12.25 6.53 7.88

1975--High Low

7.70 5.13

7.02 5.10

9.34 5.38

9.00 5.25

9.00 5.38

9.80 8.89

9.71 9.06

7.09 6.27

8.28 7.27

9.47 8.78

1974--May June

11.31 11.93

8.23 7.90

10.82

10.83 11.06

10.90

9.24 9.38

9.13 9.40

6.02 6.13

7.58 7.54

9.41

July Aug. Sept.

12.92 12.01 11.34

7.55 8.96 8.06

11.93 11.79

11.83 11.69 11.19

11.83 11.38

10.20 10.07 10.38

10.04 10.19 10.30

6.68 6.69 6.76

7.81 8.04 8.04

9.84 10.25 10.58

Oct. Nov. Dec.

10.06 9.45 8.53

7.46 7.47

9.55

9.35 8.78 9.00

9.33 8.72 8.84

10.16 9.21 9.53

10.23 9.34 9.56

6.57 6.61 7.05

7.90 7.68 7.43*

10.22 9.87

7.15

8.95 9.18

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar.

7.13 6.24 5.54

6.26 5.50 5.49

7.39 6.36 6.06

7.43 6.00 5.88

7.45 6.25 6.03

9.36 8.97 9.35

9.45 9.09 9.38

6.82 6.39 6.74

7.50* 7.39* 7.73

9.25

Apr. May

5.49 5.22

5.61 5.23

6.11 5.70

5.85

6.03 5.63

9.67 9.63

9.66 9.65

6.94 6.97

8.23 8.06

9.06

5.44

2 9 16 23 30

5.59 5.28 5.44 5.54 5.71

5.58 5.74 5.52 5.57 5.60

6.03 6.10 6.18 6.13 6.08

5.75 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88

5.88 6.13 6.13 6.00 6.00

9.80 9.65

6.93 7.03 6.86 6.97 6.95

8.12

9.66 9.80

9.70 9.60 9.55 9.71 9.69

8.28 8.28

9.13

7 14 21 28

5.42 5.20 5.13

5.41

5.75 5.50

5.22

5.25

5.88 5.75 5.50 5.40

9.65 9.54 9.61 9.62

9.60 9.61 9.66 9.70

6.86 6.88 7.09 7.09

8.09 8.04 8.00 8.06

9.29

5.14

5.98 5.90 5.60 5.38

4 11 18 25

5.24 5.15

5.23 5.12

5.43 5.55

5.25 5.25

5.40 5.38

9.41r 8.92p

9.53r 9.24p

7.05 6.80

7.97 7.78p

9.14

Federal funds

Period

Apr.

May

June

(1)

Daily--June 5 12

11.18

11.36

5.18 5.10

5.17 5 19 . p

CD's New Issue-NYC 60-89 Day 190-119 Day (5) (6) 12.25 12.00 8.00 7.88

10.88

11.91

5.25

9.51

Municipal Bond Buyer (9) 7.15 5.16

8.21

FMMA Auctions Yields

(11) 10.59 8.43

9.54

9.53 8.93

8.82 9.27 8.98

8.19

9.25

7.97 n.a.

5.50 5.50 I-

Aaa Utility Recently New Offered Issue (7) (8) 10.61 10.52 8.14 8.05

________.--

Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7,8, and 10 the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the and of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceeding the end of the statement week. The FN MA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. Data have been revised back through December 1974 and * The Treasury has revised its procedure for computing the constant maturity yields. result in an average increase of about 8 basis points in the level of the 10-year yield. p- preliminary.

NOTE:

APPENDIX TABLE 1-A JUNE

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

Period

Non-

Total

oo borrowed

10.8 7.8 8.6

1ST HALF 1973 2ND HALF 1973 1ST HALF 1974 2ND HALF 1974

Available

Total

Adj

Loans

Support PVt.

Credit proxy

and Invest-

6 7 4 5 (Per cent annual rates of growth

7.5 7.2 10.8

10.1 9.2 8.9

11.3 10.4 10.2

14.6 13.5 9.2

8.7 6.1 4.8

11.1 8.8 7.2

13.2 8.8 6.8

12.5 11.6 10.7

12.9 11.2 9.1

12.9 11.9 9.2

6.4 8.9

1.2 13.2

9.8 8.2

13.5 6.8

16.6 9.6

7.4 4.7

9.1 8.3

9.7 7.6

14.2 8.5

13.4 8.4

13.1 10.0

11.0 5.9

0.5 21.0

12.6 4.9

14.5 5.4

15.1 3.0

6.3 3.1

8.7 5.5

7.9 5.4

13.3 7.5

10.9 7.0

11.2 6.9

1.3 8.3 3.5

1.1 -0.1 5.5 35.9

5.6 19.1 9.1 0.8

8.2 20.4 6.7 4.2

17.5 12.1 7.3 -1.1

5.5 7.0 1.0 5.3

9.3 7.9 4.2 6.7

8.9 6.8 3.8 6.9

10.9 15.3 5.8 9.1

9.8 11.8 5.6 8.3

10.3 11.8 6.4 7.2

-8.3

-1.4

-4.7

3.1

4.4

2.4

8.4

10.4

7.0

8.5

8.0

21.8 7.6 21.6

-9.1

21.5 15.7 8.6 10.8 7.8 -1.5 -2.7 6.5

16.9 13.6 9.2

12.1 5.8 17.6 11.1

4.5 11.2 5.0 4.6 3.0 8.4 7.9 3.7

3.7 9.0 4.9 3.6

1.4 5.0 -9.6

4.3 10.4 1.7 0.4 0.9 3.8 8.5 3.4

5.9

12.5 14.7 8.5 4.4 4.4 9.8 5.7 11.5

8.7 11.2 7.9 4.2 4.5 8.8 5.9 10.0

8.8 11.2 8.6 5.4 5.3 8.4 4.7 8.3

3.6 2.8 6.7 2.4 3.8

-9.3 5.5 11.0 4.2 11.3

3.9 9.4 11.8 7.7 13.3

6.5 10.5 14.0 11.8 14.9

7.7 6.9 6.2 4.5 6.8

9.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 13.9

8.4 7.5 7.9 8.2 12.5

ANNUALLY:

ments

Deposits

1972 1973 1974

1975

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

BANK CREDIT MEASURES

RESERVES

13,

SEMI-ANNUALLY:

QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH

QTR. QTR. OTR. OTR.

1974 1974 1974 1974

1ST QTR.

1975

20.5

MONTHLY: 1974--MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY P

7.0 -3.1 -1.7 15.6

-7.6 12.5 -5.6 9.7 51.8 18.4 34.8

7.9 -27.3 -5.5 8.3 -14.5

19.4 -19.1 -4.1 8.1 -13.0

-3.9

NOTES:

IIII--

0.0 -8.6 -5.5 2.9 -10.3

6.4

4.2 -0.2 5.2 7.6

-6.9

3.6 -0.2 5.8 5.1 2.6

2.9

7.1 7.7

I__.

RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREME P - PRELIMINARY.

16,

1969,

AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED

JUNE 13,

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

1975

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RESERVES 1/

RESERVESMEASURES

Period

To t a

Non l

borrowed

Available to Support Pt.

Adi Credit proxy

Deposits

MONEY STOCK

BANK CREDIT Total Loans and Invest-

MEASURES

ments

ANNUALLY: 1972 1973

30,330 32,689

29,281 31,391

28,039 30,610

406.4 448.7

559.0 634.6

255.8 271.5

525.7 572.2

844.9 919.6

569.7 636.0

888.8 983.4

985.5 1095.4

1013.1 1133.6

MONTHLY: 1974--MAR.

32,795

31,481

31,054

457.9

662.4

275.2

585.5

940.0

653.4

1007.9

1122.1

1162.8

APR. MAY. JUNE

33,652 34,263 34,479

31,916 31,673 31,473

31,551 32,115 32,536

469.2 475.8 481.2

672.3 679.1 682.9

276.6 277.6 280.0

589.4 591.6 597.1

945.9 948.8 955.9

663.3 670.2 678.4

1019.8 1027.3 1037.2

1136.3 1144.5 1155.2

1177.5 1186.1 1197.2

JULY AUG. SEPT.

35,101 34,988 35,191

31,800 31,652 31,909

32,770 33,064 33,278

484.9 487.5 489.2

692.9 699.2 695.2

280.4 280.5 280.7

599.6 601.9 603.4

959.8

962.7 965.0

683.2 685.7 688.2

1043.4 1046.4 1049.9

1162.8 1166.9 1171.3

1205.8 1211.2 1216.5

OCT. NOV. DEC.

35,099 35,048 35,503

33,286 33,795 34,776

33.236 33,160 33,341

488.3 491.2 494.3

696.0 697.4 691.8

281.6 283.6 284.4

607.6 611.6 613.5

970.7 976.9 981.7

693.8 697.1 703.8

1056.9 1062.4 1072.0

1179.9 1185.7 1195.6

1225.0 1229.8 1238.3

35,737 34,925 34,764

35,339 34,777 34,658

33,341 33,103 32,951

495.8 495.7 498.1

693.9 695.5 699.4

282.2 283.5 286.1

615.5 620.3 626.4

987.0 995.6 1007.2

708.3 712.4 716.1

1079.8 1087.6 1096.9

1205.2 1213.0 1221.1

1247.0 1254.8 1263.1

35,003 34,581

34,892 34,515

33,032 32,749

500.2 501.3

700.8 703.0

287.1 289.8

630.4 637.4

1017.1 1029.7

718.8 722.9

1105.5 1115.2

1229.4 1243.6

1271.7 1285.0

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY P WEEKLY: 1975--APR.

9 16 23 30

34,710 35,057 35,064 35,204

34,680 35,035 34,899 34,963

32,994 33,121 33,014 32,985

501.5 501.2 498.6 498.6

287.3 287.1 286.3 286.5

629.9 630.4 629.8 630.9

719.3 719.0 717.7 718.2

MAY

7 14 21 28f

34,915 34,437 34,603 34,314

34,881 34,420 34,230

32,914 32,601 32,635 32,739

499.3 499.5 502.6 502.9

288.0 289.0 289.9 292.1

633.2 636.0 637.7 641.5

719.6 722.3 723.5 725.9

34,714

34,630

32,999

505.3

292.1

642.9

726.7

JUNE

34,481

NOTES:

RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY.

June 13, 1975

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period Period

Demand ICurrency CurrencyDeposits

Timetl DTotal Deposits

Time Othernr Than CD's

______________

Credit on Union Shares

CD's CDs

Savings Bonds

ANNUALLY:

Short Term

Commercial

paper S. Gov't Commercial UeTerm Securities Securities

7 6 5 4 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

Mutual Savings aBankk L and S & L Sharesjl

1972

8.2

15.7

16.7

18.0

31.0

6.1

0.5

15.0

1973

8.3

5.5

13.9 11*8

30.9 16.5

38.8 11.5

3.1

8.5 5.6

5.1 4.8

10.2

11.4 9.4

45.3 41.5

1974

16.2 15.1

1ST HALF 1973 2ND HALF 1973

8.4 7.8

7.1 3.8

19.8 11.4

10.6 116

10,.4 3

1.6 94

.61 106

64 41

18.6 10.5

10.9 7.6

5.9 5.1

13.8 9.1

54.9 221

4.3 52

19.8

9.7 10.2

5. 1.0

17.7

1ST HALF 1974 2ND HALF 1974

14.1

2.9

1ST QTR. 1974

11.0

3.8

15.1

12.8

7.9

13.0

26.3

4.0

12.3

25.1

1974

8.2

6.0

6.6

21.3

8.8

3.9

17.2 25 9

4.6

22.3

7.1

29.5 -27 .1

7.9

6.9

126.10

78.2

3.1

14.2

12.0

25.9

9.2

18.9

-2.2

6.4

-2.0

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 0 300 20

QUARTERLYI

2ND OTR.

1974 OTR. 1974 3RD QTR. 3RD

4TH QTR. 1974

0 12.1

-1.1

-1.1 3.2

9.1 11.7

8. 8.8

13.8

-2.1

-6.6

13.1

18.0

5.0

1.5

9.3

74.7

3.9

10.8

11.8

4.3

18.5

42.8

3.9

10.7

14.4

18.0

1.1 -3.3

13.3 .1

7.9 8.6

4.7 1.8

9.1 0.0

33.9 2.9

5.9 3.9

25.4 18.7

22.8 39.2

7.3 10.9

-1.1 2.2

6.8 13.5

4.5 11.9

2.9 4.3

9.1 9.0

14.3 19.8

5.8 8

4.4

-9.7

-29.3

5.6

13.4

-2.0

16.2

7.1

3.9

28.3 28.3

7.7

9.2

13.2

67.4

-35.5

4.0

0.0

16.8

5.8

1.7

12.3

9.9

17.5

31.9

31.6

-25.3

-13.9

18.9

7.6

10.6 12.2

3.9 10.6

8.2 3.1

12.6 12.5

11.5 17.6

17.2 21.2

-7.8 -30.0

5.7 5.7

-7.7 -29.1

1.0

17.1

10.1

7.5

2.8

JUNE

5.6

11.8

JULY AUG.

3.7 3.0

SEPT. OCT.

NOV.

1975

19.0 8

13.6

0.2

1ST QTR.

5.2 52

9.4

MONTHLY: 1974--MA

DEC.

1975--JAN.

FEB. PAR. APR.

MAY P

NOTES:

12.1

5.0

1.0

4.7

10.6

184

20.8 1.4

-18.7 -39.4

t_ rnnrg .w- .j nNo, -t 1_ 116, BY AVA OCTOBER DERIVED -LVS ON S EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDEDBEGINNING 1 RESERVE REQUIREMENTS OCTOBER 1, 1970.

5.6 3.7

t0 1969,

-9.9 84.1

8.7

-2.7 -2.

0.0 5.7 8.6 -25.5

ANn BROIulfRMENTS 0 4 BANK-REL TED ENDOF BANKE-RELATED ONTHONAND CURENT O REQUIREMENTS AND

COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING MONTH AND END OF AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGNG END OF CURRENT 1/ GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. p - PRELIMINARY.

JUNE 13, 1975

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time

Period

Currency

Demand m

2 2

Other Time Total oDeposits Cs Deposits 3 4 4 3

Mutual

Savings Bank and S & L Shares, Share 5 5

Credit Union Shares 6 6

Short

CD's

Commercial Term Savings Te SBnds . t o m er B 1 Securlties cur'tes Paper ' 8 9 10 8 9 10

Nondepot Funds

US Gov't Demand

11 11

12 12

ANNUALLY: 56.9 61.6

198.9 209.9

313.8 364.5

269.9 300.7

297.5 322.8

21.6 24.6

43.9 63.8

57.0 59.9

39.8 52.1

27.6 38.3

4.3 6.6

1974--MAR.

63.3

211.9

378.3

310.3

329.2

25.4

68.0

60.5

53.7

40.7

7.5

APR. MAY JUNE

63.9 64.3 64.6

212.8 213.3 215.4

386.7 392.5 398.4

312.7 314.0 317.1

330.8 331.2 332.4

25.7 25.9 26.3

73.9 78.5 81.3

60.8 61.0 61.2

55.7 56.2 56.7

41.3 41.6 42.1

8.1 8.8 8.4

JULY AUG. SEPT.

64.8 65.5 65.9

215.6 215.0 214.8

402.8 405.2 407.5

319.2 321.5 322.7

333.7 334.2 335.0

26.5 26.5 26.7

83.6 83.8 84.8

61.5 61.7 62.0

57.9 58.8 59.4

42.9 44.3 45.2

9.2 9.0 8.6

OCT. NOV. DEC.

66.5 67.4 67.9

215.2 216.2 216.5

412.1 413.6 419.4

325.9 328.0 32Q.1

336.2 338.2 340.8

26.9 27.2 27.5

86.2 85.5 90.3

62.3 62.5 62.8

60.8 60.7 60.7

45.1 44.0 42.7

7.9 7.6 8.4

68.2 68.8 69.5

214.0 214.7 216.6

426.0 428.9 430.0

333.3 336.8 340.3

343.6 346.9 352.0

27.9 28.3 28.8

92.7 92.1 89.8

63.2 63.5 63.8

62.3 61.9 60.4

41.8 41.8 42.0

7.6 6.5 6.5

69.6 70.3

217.5 219.5

431.7 433.1

343.3 347.6

357.4 362.5

29.3 29.7

88.4 85.5

64.1 64.3

59.9 64.1

42.3 41.4

6.7 7.4

9 16 23 30

69.5 69.5 69.7 69.8

217.8 217.6 216.6 216.8

432.0 431.8 431.4 431.6

342.6 343.3 343.5 344.4

89.4 88.6 87.9 87.2

6.3 6.6 7.2 6.9

MAY

7 14 21 28P

69.8 70.2 70.5 70.8

218.2 218.6 219.4 221.3

431.6 433.3 433.7 433.8

345.1 347.0 347.8 349.4

86.4 86.3 85.9 84.4

7.0 7.0 7.8 7.9

JUNE

70.6

221.6

434.5

350.8

83.8

7.5

1972 1973

MONTHLY:

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY P WEEKLY: 1975--APR.

LOANS SOLD TO BANKADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, MONTHLY WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S. BANKS. RELATED INSTITUTIONS, WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUDATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. TION DEPOSITS. ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY

NOTES:

1/ P -

Appendix Table III

Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate) (Revised Series)

1975

8.8

10.4

8.6

10.5

9.1

5.6

7.8

5.2

7.5

8.7

10.8

8.9

9.8

7.9

5.5

9.3

9.6

8.9

9.1

7.0

7.9

8.3

6.8

7.6

III

1.0

4.2

6.0

3.8

5.2

5.3

6.7

6.2

6.9

5.8

1973

1974

3.4

7.3

11.3

10.6

0.6

9.1

2.4

1.0

8.4

6.4

10.4

8.3

8.9

8.3

11.5

10.8

14.0

13.3

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in of the quarters.

all three months

Appendix Table IV SHORT-RUN OPERATING GUIDES* Total Reserves Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt.

Nonborrowed Reserves C

RPD

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt.

Alt. B

Alt. C

1975

May June July

34,581 34,794 35,089

34,581 34,781 35,038

34,581 34,768 34,987

34,515 34,724 35,009

34,515 34,704 34,901

34,515 34,684 34,793

32,593 32,862 33,013

32,593 32,859 32,988

32,593 32,85F 32,963

1975

June July

7.4 10.2

6.9 8.9

6.5 7.5

7.3 9.8

6.6 6.8

5.9 3.8

9.9 5.5

9.8 4.7

9.7 3.9

8.8

7.9

7.0

8.6

6.7

4.8

7.7

7.3

6.8

June-July

Excess Reserves

Alt. A 1975 May

Alt. B

Alt. C

Borrowings

Alt. A

Alt.

Alt. C

156

June

155

145

135

July

200

175

150

135

Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements.

195

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1975, June 16). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19750617

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19750617,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1975},
  month = {Jun},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19750617},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}