bluebooks · July 14, 1975

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing).

A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Content last modified 6/05/2009.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

July 11, 1975

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC

July 11, 1975 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Recent developments (1)

Growth of M1 accelerated further from May to June, on

average, to about an 18 per cent annual rate, but data for the two statement weeks ending July 9--a period after Federal tax rebates and special social security payments had ended--indicate a significant decline in the level of the money stock.

For June and July combined,

therefore, growth in M1 is now projected at an annual rate of about 8½ per cent--well within the Committee's two-month range of tolerance. While growth of bank time and savings deposits other than large CD's has also slowed recently, expansion of M 2 still appears likely to run somewhat above its two-month range of tolerance, as the table shows. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over June-July period Reserve and monetary aggregate (Growth at SAAR in per cent)

Range of Tolerance

Latest Estimates

6½-9½

8.5

9-12

12.7

RPD

5-8

Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

5-6½ 1/

3.0

Avg. for statement week ending 5.72 6/25 6.31 7/2 6.06 7/9

Upper limit raised from 6 to 6¼ per cent by a majority vote of the Committee on June 26, with the understanding that the added leeway would be used only if another week's data confirmed excessive strength in the monetary aggregates.

(2)

Until the early days of July, incoming data on the monetary

aggregates were running well ahead of earlier staff projections, implying growth in M 1 and M 2 at rates substantially in excess of the Committee's ranges of tolerance.

The Desk responded to this evidence of excessive

monetary growth, first by seeking a Federal funds rate moving up to around 5¾ per cent, and then by raising the target to the 6 per cent upper limit of the Committee's range.

On June 26 a majority of the

Committee concurred with the Chairman's recommendation to increase the upper limit of the funds rate range to 6¼ per cent, on the understanding that the additional leeway would be utilized "only in the event that another week's data confirm excessive strength in monetary aggregates". In the early days of July, however, incoming data indicated a weakening of the monetary aggregates relative to staff projections; thus, the additional leeway was not used. (3)

Special factors affecting the Federal funds market did

force the average funds rate above 6 per cent, however, in late June and early July.

On the two trading days that preceded the Monday,

June 30 bank statement date, the daily funds rate rose to 6.31 and 6.61 per cent, respectively, as banks positioned themselves to minimize borrowing on the statement date itself.

As a result, even though the

rate then dropped back to around 6 per cent, the average for the week was 6.31 per cent.

On Thursday, July 3, banks scrambled to bolster

their reserve positions before the long holiday weekend. the funds rate up to about 6¼ per cent.

This forced

After the holiday weekend,

however, the funds rate fell back, fluctuating generally between 5¾ and 6 per cent.

Member bank borrowing at Federal Reserve Banks rose to

nearly $1.5 billion just prior to the end-of-June statement date and averaged $871 million in that week.

In the statement week just ended

member borrowing averaged $223 million, still somewhat on the high side of recent experience. (4) Advances in short-term rates during the intermeeting period were most pronounced in the Treasury bill market.

The 3-month

bill--after reaching a peak rate of 6.20 per cent in last Monday's auction--has traded most recently at around 6 per cent, which compares with a level just above 5 per cent prevailing at the time of the last meeting.

The advance in bill rates was particularly large because

dealers had previously built up positions in anticipation of the seasonal contraction in bill supply during the latter half of June. When the funds rate then began to rise after mid-June, dealers pressed aggressively to reduce their swollen positions.

The impact of this

shift in dealer strategy was augmented when foreign buyers at the same time began cutting back on demands for bills and the Treasury shortly resumed its net additions to supply in bill auctions.

Other

short-term rates responded to the rise in Federal funds and Treasury bill rates--showing net advances of 75 to 100 basis points over the intermeeting period. (5)

In longer-term securities markets, yield advances for

the intermeeting period amounted to about 20-30 basis points on Treasury and new high grade corporate issues.

Most recently, however, these

markets have stabilized, and new issues have been readily distributed.

-4Rates on State and local government securities showed little net change for the period, but they were already close to their 1974 highs.

Mortgage

rates have been generally stable, although the volume of mortgage offerings accepted in FNMA secondary market auctions has grown. (6)

The table on the following page shows (in percentage

annual rates of change) selected monetary and financing flows over various time periods.

Appendix table III compares money supply growth

rates computed on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a last-month-of-quarter basis.

Calendar Year

1974

Twelve Months

Past Six Months

Past Three Months

Past Month

June '75 June '75 over over

June 75 over

June '75 over

June '74 Dec. '74

Mar. '75

May

'75

10.7

8.6

1.2

-3.5

1.4

10.8

10.1

- .7

8.9

1.5

-2.0

9.6

4.8

5.0

6.8

11.2

18.2

7.2

8.4

11.0

13.3

18.8

6.8

9.4

13.0

15.3

18.8

i4 (M2 plus CD's)

10.7

7.8

8.5

14.1

lus CD's)

9.0

8.9

10.8

12.0

15.8

10.2

5.5

5.4

7.6

15.3

9.2

3.3

3.4

2.3

2.2

-1.0

-1.9

-1.4

- .5

- .3

Total reserves Nonborrowed reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits

5.1

Concepts of Money M

(currency plus demand

deposits)

2 (M plus time deposits

at commercial banks

other than large CD's) M3 (1

plus deposits at

thrift institutions)

(M3

Bank Credit

Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.)

Loans and investments of commercial banks Short-term

arket Paper

(bnthly average change in billions) Large CD's

.4 .2 Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government.

2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (7)

Summarized below for Committee consideration are three

alternative short-run operating specifications for policy.

More detailed

figures, including associated longer-run growth rates, are presented in the tables on pp. 6a and 6b.

Alternative operating guides expressed

in terms of nonborrowed reserves, as well as other related reserve measures, are shown in appendix table IV. Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

4 to 6

3½ to 5½

3 to 5

9 to 11

8½ to 10½

8 to 10

Ranges of tolerance for July-Aug.

RPD

-½ to 1½

Federal funds rate (intermeeting range)

5 to 6

-1½ to ½ 5

to 6½

-2½ to -½ 6¼ to 7¼

Memorandum item: 6-month annual growth rate (June '75- Dec. '75) M1

(8)

The short-run specifications of alternative B involve

maintenance of prevailing money market conditions between now and the next Committee meeting.

Thus, the Federal funds rate range shown is

centered on 6 per cent.

It is expected that growth in M1 and M 2 over

the two-month July-August period will slow considerably from the recent extreme pace.

M 1 is likely to expand in a 3½-5½ per cent annual rate

-6aAlternative Longer-Run Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates

Alt.

M1 Alt. B

Alt.

Alt. A

Alt. B Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

June July August

294.1 293.8 296.5

294.1

647.3

1045.7

293.8

293.7

651.0

650.9

650.7

1055.1

1054.9

1054.6

296.4

296.2

657.8

657.4

656.8

1066.6

1065.9

1065.0

1975

Dec.

305.7

304.2

302.9

682.8

679.9

676.8

1108.3

1104.0

1099.6

1976

June

312.5

310.7

704.0

698.9

695.3

1145.9

1137.2

1129.8

1975

QII-Av. QIV-Av.

290.3 303.5

290.3 302.5

290.3 301.6

638.3 676.7

633.3 674.5

638.3 672.2

1030.8 1098.3

1030.8 1095.0

1030.8 1091.4

1976

QII-Av.

310.2

308.6

700.0

695.3

692.0

1139.6

1131.6

1124.9

7.9

6.9

6.0

11.0

10.1

12.0

11.2

4.4

4.3

5.2

6.2

5.6

6.8

6.0

5.5

QII-Av.'75-QIV Av.'75

9.1

8.4

7.8

12.0

11.3

10.6

13.1

12.5

11.8

QIV-Av.'75-QII-Av.'76

4.4

4.0

4.6

6.9

6.2

5.9

7.5

6.7

6.1

6.3

5.7

8.8

8.0

7.4

9.6

8.8

8.0

6.9

6.3

9.7

8.9

8.4

10.6

9.8

9.1

1975

June '75 - Dec. '75 Dec.

'75 - June '76

June '75 QII-Av.

- June '76 75-QII-Av.' 76

9.1 5.5

10.3

-6b

Alternative Longer-Run Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) M

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

June July August

731.4 734.1 739.4

731.4 733.9 738.9

731.4 733.7 738.4

Dec.

764.2

761.9

1976

June

791.2

1975

QII-Av. QIV-Av.

1976

QII-Av.

1975

Alt.

Credit Proxy

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1129.8 1138.2 1148.2

1129.8 1137.9 1147.4

1129.8 1137.6 1146.6

507.6 505.4 507.5

507.6 505.2 507.1

507.6 505.1 506.8

759.7

1189.7

1185.8

1181.9

523.0

521.6

520.2

787.3

785.0

1233.2

1225.6

1219.5

538.1

535.8

534.6

724.4 758.1

724.4 756.3

724.4 754.5

1116.8 1179.8

1116.8 1176.7

1116.8 1173.6

503.0 519.3

503.0 518.1

503.0 517.0

786.0

782.3

780.2

1225.6

1218.6

1213.1

534.4

532.4

531.1

June' 75-Dec. '75 Dec.' 75-June' 76

9.0 7.1

8.3 6.7

7.7 6.7

10.6

7.3

9.9 6.7

QII-Av.'75-QIV-Av.'75 QIV-Av.'75-QI-Av. '76

9.3 7.4

8.8

8.3 6.8

11.3 7.8

10.7 7.1

10.2

6.9

June'75-June'76

8.2

7.6

7.3

9.2

QII-Av.'75-QII-Av.'76

8.5

8.0

7.7

9.7

6.1 5.8

5.5 5.4

5.0 5.5

6.7

6.5 5.8

6.0 5.4

5.6 5.5

8.5

7.9

6.0

5.6

5.3

9.1

8.6

6.2

5.8

5.6

9.2 6.4

-7range, and M 2 in an 8½-10½ per cent range.

Preliminary data for M 1 in

late June and early July indicate an unwinding of the recent deposit expansion and support the view that the upsurge in good part reflected temporary factors (tax rebates and one-time payments to social security recipients).

For July, M1 growth is expected to be slightly negative,

while growth in August is expected to resume at a pace more consonant with underlying transactions demands, given prevailing money market conditions. (9) While alternative B calls for maintenance of prevailing money market conditions in the short-run, given the temporary slowing expected in M1 growth, it appears likely that money market conditions will need to be tightened further later on in order to achieve growth in the aggregates as indexed by expansion in M1 over the next year at around the center of the 5-7½ per cent range adopted by the Committee at its last meeting.

The staff at this point believes that the funds rate

might need to rise to the neighborhood of 8 per cent by fall, if the projected 13 per cent annual rate of increase in nominal GNP for the second half of 1975 materializes.

On that assumption we would expect

M1 growth in the second half of 1975 to be at about a 7 per cent annual rate; a lower growth rate in the first half of 1976 would hence be required if the Committee's longer-run M1 target is to be achieved. (10)

In the table on p. 6a, under alternative B, the one-year

growth rate for M 1 from June '75 to June '76 is shown as 5¾ per cent-which is ½ point below the mid-point of the 5-7½ per cent target range. The staff used such a rate in the alternative B calculations because the substantial overshoot in M1 growth during June raised the base

level for that month by about $1.7 billion above the estimate made at the previous FOMC meeting. June 1976,

Over the 12-month period from June 1975 to

M1 would therefore have to grow about

indicated earlier if

per cent less than

the Committee wished to ensure that the June overshoot

did not permanently raise the money supply.

The long-run growth rate under

alternative B measured on a quarterly average basis--that is,

from the

average level for M1 in the second quarter of 1975 to the average level in the second quarter of 1976--is around 6¾ per cent, as is

(11)

also shown in the table.

The same one-year growth rates are shown for alternative C

as for alternative B--with alternative C implying a somewhat different pattern of monetary growth rates and interest rate movements over the two six month periods, as will be noted below.

Alternative A includes a growth rate for

the June '75-June '76 period of 6¼ per cent from the current estimate of the June '75 base.

Thus, it

keyed to the mid-point of the 5-7

per cent

range adopted by the Committee for that period at its last meeting and, in effect, "forgives" the June overshoot. from QII '75 (12)

to QII '76

This alternative implies M1 growth

of around 6-3/4 per cent.

The short-run specifications for alternative C contemplate

some further near-term tightening of the money market,

involving a Federal

funds rate range of 6¼-7¼per cent for the period until the next meeting. Adoption of this alternative would introduce an increased monetary restraint earlier than under alternative B.

As a result, the staff would expect that

less additional pressure would have to be exerted on the Federal funds rate

later on to achieve targeted growth in the monetary aggregates over the next year.

Over the July-August period M1 growth under this

alternative would be expected to be at about a 3-5 per cent annual rate, with growth over the last half of 1975 at around a 6 per cent annual rate, or one percentage point less than under alternative B. (13)

If the Federal funds rate were to rise in coming weeks

to the 6¾ per cent mid-point of the alternative C range, a very substantial upward adjustment in other short-term rates would likely ensue. The 3-month bill rate would probably move up to around 7 per cent, the commercial paper rate to around 7

per cent, and the general level of

the prime loan rate would adjust upwards.

However, if the Federal funds

rate were stabilized at around 6 per cent, as is contemplated under alternative B, no more than minor upward market rate adjustments, if any, would seem likely in the weeks immediately ahead.

The Treasury

will be adding substantial amounts to weekly and monthly bill auctions, but private short-term credit demands still appear weak enough so that Treasury bills can probably be readily marketed to banks and other investors. (14)

On July 23, the Treasury will announce the terms of its

mid-August refunding of $4.8 billion of maturing publicly-held coupon issues and will probably also raise some new cash at that time.

While

specific maturity areas of the new offerings are still uncertain, it seems clear that intermediate-term issues will be involved and possibly

a longer-term option as well.

In the corporate bond market, a continued

large volume of new issues is expected this summer, though less than in

-10June.

The municipal volume will also be large, including another

$1 billion from the Municipal Assistance Corporation for New York City,

in late July or August and a third $1 billion by early fall.

Given

these near-term demands on bond markets, any appreciable further tightening of the money market in the weeks ahead would be likely to exert some additional upward pressure on longer-term interest rates.

Such pressures

could be moderated, of course, by postponements of corporate bond issues-as might happen if borrowers thought that inflation was coming under

control and,therefore,that higher bond yields were not sustainable over the longer run. (15)

Alternative A involves an easing of money market conditions

over the near-term, which in effect reverses the recent tightening. Market interest rates would tend to decline in sympathy, but declines might be quite modest as many market participants may assume that the easing in money market conditions will be transitory, given the consensus forecast of a strengthening in economic activity.

Indeed, the staff

believes that under this alternative, short-term rates would have to

begin rising again by late summer or early fall to achieve longer-term objectives for the monetary aggregates. (16)

Under all three alternatives net inflows of time and

savings deposits (other than large money market CD's) to banks and to thrift institutions are expected to slow from their recent unusually

rapid pace that included the effects on savings of tax rebates and one-time social security payments.

The slowdown would be greatest over

the near-term under alternative C, which involves the probability of a

-11significant further rise in short-term market interest rates.

Never-

theless, net inflows of consumer-type time deposits are still likely to be good-sized during the summer.

Later this fall reduced inflows might

be expected to exert more pronounced pressures on banks to raise additional funds in the CD market and on thrift institutions to borrow from Home Loan Banks and commercial banks under either alternatives B or C.

-12Proposed directive (17)

Presented below are four alternative formulations for the

operational paragraph of the directive.

The first

three are intended to

correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in

the

preceding section, while the fourth may be associated with any of the policy

alternatives.

In all of the alternatives, it is proposed to include a

reference to Treasury financing because of the regular mid-August financing that will be announced on July 23. Alternative A

To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF developments in domestic and international financial markets,

the Committee

seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, [DEL: con moderate] PROVIDED with sistent

THAT growth in monetary

the over aggregates APPEARS TO BE SLOWING SUBSTANTIALLY [DEL: ahead]. months Alternative B

To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee acheive] MAINTAIN ABOUT THE PREVAILING bank reserve seeks to [DEL: and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, moderate] with consistent [DEL:

IN THE EXPECTATION THAT growth in

monetary aggregates WILL SLOW SUBSTANTIALLY [DEL: months the over ahead].

-13Alternative C

To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF developments in domestic and international financial markets,

the Committee

seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT TIGHTER bank reserve and money consistent market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, [DEL: moderate] with

IN ORDER TO ENCOURAGE A SUBSTANTIAL SLOWING OF

ahead]. months the over growth in monetary aggregates [DEL: Possible substitute wording for all alternatives To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead.

CHART 1

CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II-FOMC 7/11/75

RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

36 8% growth for June-J uly

1975

- I I

I I I I I I I

J 1974

I. I. I. I.

IIIIl1111,11

I. J 1975

I. I. S

> ..

RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios

CHART 2

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC 7/11/75

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS S300

280

IIIlSI i

I ljlllll iI I l i

I l IIII I

BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2

-1 40

620

-4 600

1974

1975

7/11/75

CHART 3

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

520

500

480

-460

RESERVES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 7 39

TOTAL

- 35

1974 1975 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in r eserve requirement ratios

6/16/75.

CHART 4

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

PER CENT

l~ q

INTEREST RATES Short-term

PERCENT

INTEREST RATES Long-term

FUNDS

F.R. DISCOUNT RATE

RESERVES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BORROWED

NET BORROWED

III

ill1 1974

Ill1l

111111 1975

1974

1975

1974

1975

PER CENT

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 1

BANK RESERVES

JULY 11,

1975

(ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) RESERVES AVAILABLE PRIVATE FOR FOR PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS

PeriodPeriod

SA I

NSA

REQUIRED RESERVES

AGGREGATE RESERVES --------------Total Nonborrowed Reserves Reserves

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Total Required

Private Demand

--- ------

Other Time CD's and Nondeposits Deposits

Gov't. and Interbank

MONTHLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1975--MAR. APR* MAY JUNE JULY PERCENT

32.951 33,032 32,752 133,014) 132,915)

32,694 33,098 32,608 (32,7531 132,789)

34,764 35,003 34,581 (34,888) 135,003)

34.658 34,892 34,515 (34,661) (34,840)

34,564 34,845 34,422 134,668) 134,816)

19,236 19,474 19,405 (19,799) S10,807)

8,868 8,796 8,715 ( 8,666) 1 8,610)

4,643 4,602 4,471 ( 4,330) I 4.311)

1,817 1,973 1,830 ( 1,874) 2,088)

ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1974--3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1975-1ST QTR. 2ND OTR.

9.1 0.8 I

8.3 3.5

-4.7 0.8)

-8.3 1.4)

5.5 35.9

-1.4 0.0)

8.4 2.8

(

0.0 5.3

-7.7 1.2)

-4.2 S11.7)

MONTHLY 1975--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY

-7.6

-9.1 -5.5 2.9 -10.2 S 9.6) 1 -3.6)

JUNE-JULY

11.0 6.5

-5.5 8.3 -1,.5 S10.7) 1

3.0)

4.0)

-4.1 8.1 -13.0 5S.1) I 6.2)

7.3)

S 5.6)

-5.8 9.8 -14.6 ! 8.6) 5I.1) (

6.91

1 (

8.9 14.8 -4.3 24.4) 0.5) (12.4)

-17.1 -11.1 -6 7) -7.81 -7.2)

WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS

1275--MAY 14 21 28 JUNE

JULY

NOTE:

32,601 32,649 32.742

329.21 32,384 32,418

34,437 34,617 34.311

34,420 34,496 34,227

34,438 34,532 34,147

19,367 19,411 19,433

8,734 8.697 8.717

4, 500 4,455 4,429

1,838 1, 9e9 1,569

4 11 8e 25

32,987 32,754 33,165 32,971

32,608 32,189 33,007 32,817

34,682 34,047 35,160 35,045

34.598 34,009 35,083 34,857

34,348

34,083 34,776 34,924

19,566 19,760 19,804 19,884

8.680 8,702 8,677 8,645

4,407 4,329 4,300 4,320

1,o95 1.293 1,995 2,074

2 9

33,240 32,951

33,216 32,524

35,c29 3A.01

34,758 34,668

35,235 34,805

19,913 10,953

8,616 8,582

4,326 4.329

2,380 1.9-0

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN AD JUSTE D TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT R A T IO, DATA SHOWN IN PARANTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF MAY 20, 1975 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD RANGE OF 6.2 5 TO 8.25 PERCENT FOR T H E JUNE-JULY PERI OD.

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.)

Table 2

MONETARY AGGREGATES

CLASS FOMC II JULY 11, 1975

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad

Period

(M1)

Adjusted Credit

U.S. Govt.

(M2)

Proxy

Deposits

TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other

Nondeposit Sources of

Total

Than CD's

CD's

Funds

MONTHLY LEVELS-$BILLIONS 286.1 287.1 289.7 (294.1) (293.8)

1975--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY

626.4 630.4 637.3 (647.3) (650.8)

498.1 500.2 501.2 (507.6) (505.2)

I (

430.0 431.7 433.1 (437.3) (440.1)

0.7 2.1 2.1 3.8) 2.4)

89.8 88.4 8505 ( 84.1) ( 83.0)

340.3 343.3 347.6 (353.2) (357.1)

( (

6.5 6.7 7.4 7.0) 6.9)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1974-3RD QTR. 4TH OTRe

1.0 5.3

4.2 6.7

6.7 4.2

9.1 11.7

7.1 7.9

17.2 25.9

1975--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR.

2.4 11.2

8.4 13.3

3.1 7.6

10.1 6.6

13.6 15.2

-2.2 -25.4

( (

11.0 4.2 10.9 18.2) -1.2)

( I

11.8 7e7 13.1 18.8) 6.5)

5.8 5.1 2.4 15.3) -5.7)

( (

3.1 4.7 3.9 11.6) 7.7)

( (

12.5 10.6 15.0 19.3) 13.31

-30.0 -18.7 -39.4 ( -19.6) ( -15.7)

8.5)

(

12.71

4.81

(

9.71

(

16.4)

( -17.51

MONTHLY 1975--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY JUNE-JULY

(

WEEKLY LEVELS-$BILLIONS

1975--MAY 14 21 28

289.0 289.9 292.0

636.0 637.6 641.5

499.5 502.6 502.9

1.4 2.5 2.4

433.3 433.7 433.9

347.0 347.7 349.5

86.3 85.9 84.4

7.0 7.8 7.9

4 11 18 25

292.4 294.2 294.1 294.7

643.1 646.3 647.6 649.0

505.7 509.0 509.2 507.3

3.6 5.7 5.0 2.6

434.6 436.2 437.7 438.4

350.7 352.1 353.5 354.3

93.9 84.1 84.1 84.2

7.5 7.4 6.8 6.8

293.2 292.0

648.1 647.9

505.2 504.3

1.4 2.8

439.2 439.6

35A.9 355.9

84.3 83.8

6.5 6.6

JUNE

JULY

2 P 9 PE

NOTE: DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

P PE -

PRELIMINARY PARTIALLY ESTIMATED

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC

July 11, 1975 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECT OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS

(Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted)

Bills & Accept.

Open Market Operations 1 RP' Coupon Agency Net Issues Issues

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

1,217 729

212 280

331 360

981 -976

1975--Jan.

-1,102

406

-14

1,097

Feb.

-1,015

316

295

714

Mar.

112

1,301

207

-1,758

Apr. May

1,319 197

1,070 50

-2 -97

June

-413

958

-6

1974--Nov. Dec.

Total -

(5)

Daily Average Reserve Effects 2/ Other 4/ Member Open Market Factors Bank Borrowing Operations

(8)

(7)

(6)

A in reserve categories available res. 5/ Req. res. against (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) U.S.G. and interb.

(9) -183 66

A Target available reserves 5/

(10)

(11)

204 -81

395 450

327 2,963

-507 -583

201 -2,395

387

-636

-313

1,548

258

341

965

309

-1,241

-243

-499

-344

-1,627

-670

-136

- 41

-773

-13

5,442 -3,357

7,829 -3,207

2,229 5,064

4 -50

-1,767 -5,747

-1,855

-1,317

-3,165

215

3,442

2,739 393

-766

-495

54 4

414 -739

495 -170

-102

594

215 290

July Aug. -1,017 202 -1,075 67

-6 70 253 -478

-2 40 110

-1,062 3,939 8 3p 9 3p -2,9

112 -385 462 - 6 5p

1,832

683

-1,

-2,692

-648

7 14 21 28

274 425 244 -91

-50 .--

-27 -71

-2,827 -698 3,932 -1,101

-2,580 -223 4,175 -1,262

966 -905 1,155 -522

-207 -17 105 -38

June 4 11 18 25

-724 -582 222 9

333

-6 --

-4,652 -3,571 4,054 3,968

-5,383 -4,153 4,276 4,310

-1,364 -4,745 1,107 2,678

July 2

624

-1

-4,183

-3,545

-5,357

-5,549

1975--May

-192

2,449

-252 -790 -68 -15 -2,538 -419 768 -140p

3 4 0p

399p

-200p

-691p

16 23 30 1/ 2/

3/ 4/ 5/

to from end-of-period portfolio Represents change in System's Represents change in daily average level for preceding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's.

end-of-period;

includes

redemptions

regular

bill

auctions.

accounts. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. meeting. FOMC 1975 17, June the at adopted target the reflects July and June for change Target Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. during the month. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted P - Preliminary.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II--FOMC July 11, 1975 TABLE 4 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted)

Period

1972 1973 1974

490 7,232 1,280

Net Purchases 3/

1Within

Over

Total

592 400 1,665

253 244 659

1,059 864

106 195 138

430 726 371

229 165 130

169

285

584

508

-2

3,076

53 230

-376 210

-710 -404 1,620

1,097 714 -1,758

-2 --- 2,387 150 539

5,442 -3,357 -1,855 -2,827 - 698 3,932 -1,101

109

555

302

102

215

131

492

1975--Qtr. I Qtr. II

-2,093 1,086

33 218

795 973

625 454

312 273

1,765 1,917

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar.

-1,205 -1,003 115

14 -

305 129

61 113

26 74

406 316

361

451

212

1,043

Apr. May June

1,295 143 -352

148 50 20

485 -488

274 -180

164 -109

1,070 -797

50 -

167 2

121 166

S--

Net 5/

46 120 439

118

-704 -560 248

Total

1,582 1,415 1,747

232

5-10

10 167 129 196

July 2

Over

1-5

5 - 10 539 500 434

160

June 4 11 18 25

1 - 5 789 579 797

874 945 43

7 14 21 28

et PurchaAan

Wl thin 1-year

Net Change Outright Holdings Total 4/

1-vear 87 207 320

1974--Qtr. II Qtr. 1 Qtr. IN

1975--ay

__I

Federal Agencies

Treasury Coupons Treasury Bills Net Purchases 2/

-153

113

335

3.082

1,631 9,273 6,303

-1,358 46 - 154

870 1,203 691

2,188 2,620 1,402

--- --- --- 247 476 244

-162

-731

358 986 238

-582

333

222 342

-4,652 -3,571 4,054 3,968

462 -

638 -192

-4,183 -5,357

23 30 end-of-period to end-of-period. 1/ Change from 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions with market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 4/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects: changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 5/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC

July 11, 1975 TABLE 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars)

U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Coupon Issues (2)

Member Bank Reserve Positions

Dealer Positions Corporate Bonds (3)

Basic Reserve Deficit 38 Others 8 New York (9) (8)

Borrowing at FRB* Seasonal Total (7) (6)

Excess** Reserves (5)

Municipal Bonds (4)

Period

Bills (1)

1974--High Low

3,678 -289

2,203 -309

253 0

384 27

628 -168

3,906 647

176 13

-7,870 -2,447

-12,826 -6,046

1975--High Low

6,094 1,586

2,845 532

464 0

389 48

577 -42

871 18

22 5

-7,387 -1,757

-11,390 - 8,070

1974--June July Aug. Sept.

580 457 1,758 2,309

9 -214 398 552

66 14 33 23

124 79 108 85

204 162 197 180

3,020 3,075 3,337 3,282

134 149 164 139

-4,445 -3,522 -4,231 -4,235

Oct. Nov. Dec.

2,174 2,900 2,985

654 1,608 1,836

25 83 175

166 268 149

197 205 258

1,813 1,252 727

117 67 32

-4,602 -6,322 -5,960

- 8,689 - 9,715 -10,169

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar.

2,501 3,329 3,143

2,050 2,121 2,521

97 144 307

79 166 195

147 198 195

398 147 96

14 11 7

-5,378 -6,318 -5,732

- 9,744 - 9,533 -10,302

Apr. May June

2,737 4,744 *5,201

1,617 1,752 *1,351

35 91 89

115 170 118

143 155 220p

110 66 227p

6 9 l1p

-4,079 -3,965 -5,430

-10,426 - 9,567 - 9,344

7 14 21 28

4,129 4,470 4,728 4,658

532 2,144 2,352 2,109

80 55 144 85

130 190 256 166

311 -1 71 164

34 17 121 84

10 8 8 10

-2,601 -4,743 -4,093 -3,990

- 9,175 - 9,562 -10,198 - 9,302

June

4 11 18 25

4,634 5,013 *6,094 *5,289

1,445 1,163 *1,286 *1,282

4 13 143 197

175 77 121 99

334 -36 334 121p

84 38 78 188p

9 11 10 10p

-4,709 -6,335 -6,006 -6,013

- 9,295 -10,957 -11,131 - 9,639

July

2 9 16 23 30

*4,197 *4,029

*1,791 *1,310

108 141p

394p 8 7p

871p 22 3p

15p 13p

-5,754p -6,639

- 8,23 p -10,030p

1975--May

NOTE:

58 98p

-----.-. diI.4.J.

411o

fnancedo

rpu,,rchase

9,920 9,555 9,224 8,250

----Government security dealer tracing positions are on a commitment bbasis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserves less net Federal funds in syndicate, excluding trading positions. purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

-T-

** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) July 11, 1975 TABLE 6 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent) ~

___Long-Term

Short-Term

Federal Funds Fud

Period

(1)

13.55

1974--High Low

8.45

90-day 90, (2)

1-year 1-ea

(3)

90-119 Day Commercial Paper Pa (4)

9.63 6.53

9.54 6.39

12.25 7.88

12.25

Treasury Bills

CD's New Issue-NYC

Aaa Utility New

60-89 Day (5) 8.00

90-119 Day

Issue Issue

Recently Offered Ofee

Municipal Bond Burver ..

U.S. Government (20-yr. Constant Maturiytv auiv..

(7)

(8)

12.00 7.88

10.61

8.05

10.52 8.14

(10) 8.68 7.40

(6)

FNMA Auctions Yields Yields. (11) 10.59 8.43

High Low

7.70

7.02

5.02

6.69 5.46

9.34 5.38

9.00

5.13

5.25

9.00 5.38

9.80 8.89

9.71 9.06

8.41 7.63

9.47 8.78

1974--June

11.93

7.90

8.16

11.18

11.06

10.88

9.38

9.40

8.10

9.54

July Aug. Sept.

12.92 12.01 11.34

7.55 8.96 8.06

8.04 8.88 8.52

11.93 11.79 11.36

11.83 11.69 11.19

11.83 11.91 11.38

10.20 10.07 10.38

10.04 10.19 10.30

8.26 8.60 8.60

10.25 10.58

Oct. Nov. Dec.

10.06

7.59 7.29 6.79

9.55

9.35

8.95 9.18

8.78 9.00

9.33 8.72 8.84

10.16 9.21 9.53

10.23

8.53

7.46 7.47 7.15

9.34 9.56

8.37 7.99 7.91

10.22 9.87 9.53

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar.

7.13 6.24 5.54

6.26 5.50 5.49

6.27 5.56 5.70

7.39 6.36 6.06

7.43 6.00 5.88

7.45 6.25 6.03

9.36

9.45 9.09 9.38

7.88 7.71 7.99

9.25 8.93

Apr. May June

5.49 5.22 5.55

5.61 5.23 5.34

6.40 5.91 5.86

6.11 5.70 5.67

5.85 5.44 5.34

6.03 5.63 5.51

9.67 9.63 9.20

9.66 9.65

9.06 9.27

9.33

8.36 8.22 8.04

5.42 5.20

5.41 5.18 5.10 5.22

6.21 5.90 5.77 5.76

5.98

5.75 5.50 5.25 5.25

5.88 5.75 5.50 5.40

9.65 9.54 9.61 9.62

9.60 9.61 9.66 9.70

8.25 8.18 8.16 8.24

9.29

5.79 5.63 5.53 6.13

5.43 5.55 5.53 5.78

5.25

5.40 5.38 5.50 5.75

9.41

9.53 9.22 9.14 9.41

8.16 7.95 7.99 8.07

9.14

5.25 5.25 5.63 5.88 6.00

6.00 6.13

9.62

9.30 37 9. p

8.13 8 19 . p

9.07

9.45

1975--May

5.13 5.14 June

5.90 5.60

5.38

5.24

11 18 25

5.15 5.31 5.72

5.23 5.12 5.02 5.63

2 9 16 23 30

6.31 6.06

5.94 6.06

6.45 6.51

6.20 6.28

Daily--July 3 10

6,24

6.00 6.04

6.52 6.51

6.25 6.25

July

5.88p

8.97 9.35

8.95 9.07 9.37

9.38p

9.84

8.82

9.10

9.25

9.06

--- NOTE:

P--

Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7, 8, and 10 the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceeding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. Preliminary.

APPENDIX TABLE 1-A

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES E

RESERVES

Period Total

No on borrowed

Available to Support Pvt Deposits 3

BANK CREDIT

MONEY STOCK

MEASURES

Total Adl Loans Credit and MI M proxy Invest2 ments 4 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

1975

JULY 11,

12.9 11.9 8.9

ANNUALLY: 1972 1973 1974

10.8 7.8 A.6

7.5 7.2 10.8

10.1 9.2 8.9

11.3 10.4 10.2

14.6 13.5 9.2

8.7 6.1 4.8

11.1 8.8 7.2

13.2 8.8 6.8

14.0 10.6 9.0

12.9 11.2 9.1

8.9

13.2

8.2

6.8

9.6

4.7

8.3

7.6

7.8

8.4

10.0

10.9 6.7

11.0 6.9

11.0 6.5

SEMI-ANNUALLY. 2ND HALF

1973

15.0 3.1

6.3 3.1

8.7 5.5

7.9 5.4

5.4

3.4

6.8

11.0

13.0

10.8

10.7

19.1 9.1 0.8

20.4 6.7 4.2

12.0 7.3 -1.0

7.0 1.0 5.3

7.9 4.2 6.7

6.8 3.9 6.9

11.6 4.9 8.4

11.6 5.6 8.1

11.6 6.3 6.6

-1.4 0.0

-4.7 0.8

3.1 7.6

4.3 2.3

2.4 11.2

8.4 13.3

10.4 15.3

9.3 12.0

8.3 12.8

13.1

7.6 21.6 -3.9 7.0 -3.1 -1.7 15.6

-7.6 12.5 -5.6 9.7 51.8 18.4 34.8

15.7 8.6 10.8 7.8 -1.5 -2.7 6.5

13.6 9.2 6.4 4.2

10.4 1.7 0.4 0.9 3.8 8.5 3.4

11.2 5.0

-0.2 5.2 7.6

5.8 17.6 11.1 -6.9 1.4 5.0 -9.5

3.0 8.4 7.9 3.7

9.1 4.8 3.8 3.0 7.1 7.7 5.9

11.7 7.1 3.7 4.0 8.0 6.4 10.7

11.5 8.0 4.2 4.4 8.8 5.8 9.5

11.3 8.5 5.3 5.0 8.5 3.6 7.4

7.9 -27.3 -5.5 8.3 -14.5 10.7

19.4 -19.1 -4.1 8.1 -13.0 5.1

0.0 -8.6 -5.5 2.9 -10.2 9.6

3.6 -0.2 5.8 5.1 2.4 15.3

3.5 2.8 6.7 2.4 3.8 0.9

-9.3 5.5 11.0 4.2

3.9 9.4 11.8 7.7 13.1 18.8

6.5 10.5 14.0 11.9 14.6 18.8

8.7 8.7 10.4 9.4 10.3 15.8

8.9 7.3 8.4 9.7 9.9 18.4

8.1 7.3 8.5 9.7 9.9 19.3

1ST HALF 1974 2ND HALF 1974

11.0 5.9

0.5 21.0

12.6 4.9

1ST HALF 1975

-3.5

-0.7

-2.0

1974 2ND QTR. 3R0 QTR. 1974 4TH QTR. 1974

20.5 8.3 3.5

-0.1 5.5 35.9

1ST QTR. 2ND QTR.

-8.3 1.4

14.5 5.4

QUARTERLY:

1975 1975

8.0

MONTHLY: 1974--JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE

10.9

18.2

4.6

NOTES:

RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREME P - PRELIMINARY.

AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED

-I

APPENDIX MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES 1-B TABLE

JULY 11, 1975

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

Period Total

Non-o borrowed

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

BANK CREDIT MEASURES

RESERVE RESERVES Available to Support Pvt. Deposits 3

Adj. Credit proxy 4

Total Loans and Invest. ments 5

ANNUALLYs 1972 1973

30,330 32,689

29,281 31,391

28,039 30,610

406.4 448*7

559.0 634.6

255.8 271.5

525.7 572.2

844.9 919.6

569.7 636.0

888.8 983.4

985.5 1095.4

1013.1 1133.6

34,479

31,473

32,536

481.2

682.9

280.0

597.1

955.8

678.4

1037.1

1155.4

1196.1

JULY AUG. SEPT.

35,101 34,988 359191

31,800 31,652 319909

32,770 33,064 33,278

484.9 487.5 489.2

692.9 699.2 695.2

280.4 280.5 280.7

599.6 601.9 603.4

959.6 962.6 965.0

683.2 685.7 688.2

1043.2 1046.4 1049.9

1163.1 1167.2 11,71.5

1204.6 1209.9 1214.9

OCT.

35,099

33,286

33,236

488.3

696.0

281.6

607.6

970.7

693.8

1056.9

NOV.

35,048

33,795

1180.1

1223.5

33,160

491.2

697.4

283.6

611.6

976.9

697.1

1062.5

1185.8

1227.2

DEC.

35,503

349776

33,341

494.3

691.9

284.4

613.5

981.7

703.8

1072.0

1195.2

1234.8

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR.

359737 34,925 34,764

35,339 349777 34,658

33,341 33,103 32,951

495.8 495.7 498.1

693.9 695.5 699.4

282.2 283.5 286.1

615.5 620.3 626.4

987.0 995.6 1007.2

708.3 712.4 716.1

1079.8 1087.6 1097.0

1204.1 1211.4 1219.9

1243.1 1250*7 1259.6

APR. MAY JUNE

35,003 34,581 34,888

34,892 349515 34,661

33,032 32,752 33,014

500.2 501.2 507.6

700.8 703.0 703.5

287.1 289.7 294.1

630.4 637.3 647.3

1017.2 1029.6 1045.7

718.8 722.9 731.4

1105.6 1115.1 1129.8

1229.8 1239.9 1258.9

1269.8 1280.3 1300.9

34,437 34,617 34,311

34,420 34,496 349227

32,601 32,649 32,742

499.5 502.6 502.9

289.0 289.9 292.0

636.0 637.6 641.5

722.3 723.5 725.9

MONTHLY: 1974--JUNE

WEEKLY: 1975--MAY 14 21 28

NOTES:

1/ P -

JUNE

4 11 18 25P

34,682 34,047 35,160 35,045

34,598 34,009 35,083 34,857

32,987 32,754 33,165 329971

505.7 509.0 509.2 507.3

292.4 294.2 294.1 294.7

643.1 646.3 647.6 649.0

727.0 730.4 731.7 733.2

JULY

35,629

349758

33,249

505.2

293.2

648.1

732.4

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S. BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

JULY 11,

1975

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period

Currency

Demand o Period Deosts De

Total Time Curnc Deposits

Time Other her

Mutual Savings Bank and S & L

s 1

Credit Union Shares

CD's

Savings Bonds

Short o Paer Gov't ICommercial U Term Securities

Sharesj/

6 7 4 5 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

s 9

ANNUALLY: 1972 1973 1974

8.2 8.3 10.2

8.9 5.5 3.1

15.7 16.2 15.1

13.5 11.4 9.4

16.7 8.5 5.6

18.0 13.9 11.8

31.0 45.3 41.5

0.5 30.9 15.7

15.0 38.8 3.4

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF

1973

7.8

3.8

11.4

11.6

6.3

9.4

10.6

27.0

70.7

1ST HALF 2ND HALF

1974 1974

9.7 10.2

5.2 1.0

18.6 10.5

10.9 7.6

5.9 5.1

13.0 9.9

54.9 22.1

19.2 11.2

12.5 -5.4

1ST HALF 1975

9.4

6.0

8.5

14.6

16.2

18.2

13.9

12.1

1974 1974 1974

8.2 8.0 12.1

6.6 -1.1 3.2

21.3 9.1 11.7

8.8 7.1 7.9

3.9 3.1 6.9

15.9 7.6 12.0

78.2 17.2 25.9

19.9 18.2 4.0

10.1 25.6 -34.2

1ST QTR. 1975 2ND QTR. 1975

9.4 9.2

0.2 11.8

10.1 6.8

13.6 15.2

13.1 18.6

20.+ 15.2

-2.2 -25.4

-7.3 35.8

1.0 23.2

1974--JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

5.6 3.7 13.0 7.3 10.9 16.2 8.9

11.8 1.1 -1.1 2.2 5.6 1.7

18.0 13.3 7.1 6.8 13.5 4.4 16.8

11.8 7.9 8.6 4.5 11.9 7.7 4.0

4.3 4.7 1.8 2.9 4.3 7.1 9.2

18.6 4.6 9.1 9.1 9.0 13.4 13.2

42.8 33.9 2.9 14.3 19.8 -9.7 67.4

17.1 27.3 14.4 12.2 24.1 -2.0 -9.9

5.9 23.6 31.8 19.7 2.8 -55.3 -52.2

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE P

5.3 10.6 12.2 1.7 12.1 13.7

-13.9 3.9 10.6 5.0 10.5 19.7

18.9 8.2 3.1 4.7 3.9 11.6

15.3 12.6 12.5

9.9 11.5 17.6 18.4 17.1 19.5

17.5 17.2 25.4 20.8 16.3 8.1

31.9 -7.8 -30.0 -18.7 -39.4 -19.6

15.9 -15.7 -21.9 18.2 6.0 81.5

-13.7

QUARTERLY: 2ND OTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH QTR.

MONTHLY:

NOTES:

-3.3

10.6 15.0 19.3

-15.2 6.1 12.2 12.1 9.0 47.5

RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY.

JULY 11,

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

1975

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period

Currency

Demand Deosts

Time

Mutual

Total Time Deposits Deposits

Other Than CD's

ans Bank and L andS & L

Short r Union Shares Shares

CD'

________________

56.9 61.6

198.9 209.9

313.8 364.5

269.9 300.7

297.5 322.8

Commercial Term Savngs Bondsyy U.S. Gov't Papery Securities 1ecuties 8 9 10

Non deposit Funds Funds

Gov't Demand Demand

ANNUALLY: 1972 1973

21.6 24.6

43.9 63.8

57.0 59.9

39.8 52.1

27.6 38.3

4.3 6.6

5.6 3.9

MONTHLY: 1974--JUNE

64.6

215.4

398.4

317.1

332.4

26.2

81.3

61.2

57.1

40.7

8.4

5.3

JULY AUG. SEPT.

64.8 65.5 65.9

215.6 215.0 214.8

402.8 405.2 407.5

319.2 321.5 322.7

333.7 334.2 335.0

26.3 26.5 26.7

83.6 83.8 84.8

61.5 61.7 62.0

58.4 59.1 59.7

41.5 42.6 43.3

9.2 9.0 8.6

4.2 6.2 6.3

OCT. NOV. DEC.

66.5 67.4 67.9

215.2 216.2 216.5

412.1 413.6 419.4

325.9 328.0 329.1

336.2 338.2 340.8

26.9 27.2 27.5

86.2 85.5 90.3

62.3 62.6 62.8

60.9 60.8 60.3

43.4 41.4 39.6

7.9 7.6 8.4

3.7 4.6 1.9

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR.

68.2 68.8 69.5

214.0 214.7 216.6

426.0 428.9 430.0

333.3 336.8 340.3

343.6 346.9 352.0

27.9 28.3 28.9

92.7 92.1 89.8

63.2 63.5 63.8

61.1 60.3 59.2

39.1 39.3 39.7

7.6 6.5 6.5

0.7 0.6 0.7

APR. MAY JUNE

69.6 70.3 71.1

217.5 219.4 223.0

431.7 433.1 437.3

343.3 347.6 353.2

357.4 362.5 368.4

29.4 29.8 30.0

88.4 85.5 84.1

64.1 64.4 64.6

60.1 60.4 64.5

40.1 40.4 42.0

6.7 7.4 7.0

2.1 2.1 3.8

70.2 70.5 70.8

218.8 219.4 221.2

433.3 433.7 433.9

347.0 347.7 349.5

86.3 85.9 84.4

7.0 7.8 7.9

1.4 2.5 2.4

WEFKLY: 1975--MAY 14 21 28 JUNE

4 11 18 25P

70.6 71.1 71.2 71.4

221.8 223.1 222.9 223.3

434.6 436.2 437.7 438.4

350.7 352.1 353.5 354.3

83.9 84.1 84.1 84.2

7.5 7.4 6.8 6.8

3.6 5.7 5.0 2.6

JULY

71.1

222.2

439.2

354.9

84.3

6.5

1.4

0NOTES:

-I

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA.

Appendix Table III

Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate) (Revised Series)

M 1973

3.4

6.8

7.3

9.1

8.8

10.4

11.3

7.3

10.6

8.6

10.5

9.1

III

0.6

5.5

5.6

7.8

5.2

7.5

8.7

5.0

10.8

8.9

9.8

7.9

5.8

9.3

9.6

8.9

7.3

7.9

8.3

6.8

III

3.5

4.2

6.0

3.8

3.9

6.7

6.2

6.9

1974

1975

2.4

8.4

6.4

10.4

8.3

11.2

13.3

11.3

15.3

13.7

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the

final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in of the quarters.

all

three months

Appendix Table IV SHORT-TERM OPERATING GUIDES* Total Reserves

1975

June July August

1975

July August

July-August

Nonborrowed Reserves

RPD

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt.

34,888 35,004 34,790

34,888 34,991 34,737

34,888 34,984 34,686

34,661 34,757 34,640

34,661 34,707 34,487

34,661 34,662 34,246

33,014 32,916 33,038

33,014 32,903 32,985

33,014 32,897 32,934

4.0 -7.3

3.5 -8.7

3.3 -10.2

-1.7

-2.6

-3.5

3.3 -4.0

1.6 -7.6

0.0 -14.4

-3.6 4.4

-0.4

-3.0

-7.2

0.4

Excess Reserves Alt. A 1975

Alt. B

June

220

July

185

175

August

200

175

Adjusted for changes in

Alt. C

reserve requirements.

-4.3 1.3

-0.5

-1.5

Borrowings Alt.

220

150

-4.0 3.0

150

Alt. B

Alt.

227

285

320

250

440

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1975, July 14). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19750715

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19750715,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1975},
  month = {Jul},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19750715},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}