bluebooks · September 15, 1975

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

September 12, 1975 Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC

September 12, 1975 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Recent developments (1)

M1 grew at a 4½ per cent annual rate in

suggest some pick up in is

September.

August, and data

For the August-September period, M1

now projected to grow at an annual rate of 5.7 per cent,

mid-point of its

range of tolerance.

also slowed in August, at a 7

and M2 is

about the

Growth of consumer-type time deposits

projected during the August-September period

per cent annual rate, somewhat below the lower end of its

target of

tolerance. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over August-September Period 1/ Reserve and monetary aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent)

Ranges of Tolerance

4 to 7

Latest Estimates 5.7

8¼ to 10¾ RPD

-1½ to

5¾ to

-3.7

Memo:

Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

Avg. for statement week ending 6.15 Aug. 20 6.23 27 6.06 Sept. 3 10 6.15

These figures do not incorporate the regular quarterly benchmark revision of monetary aggregates that will be published this coming The revisions (based on the April call report) lowered the Thursday. half of 1975 from 5 to 4.1 per cent. rate of growth for M1 in the first The level of M was reduced by $1.3 billion in April and by $1.2 billion All tables on subsequent pages of this on average in the second quarter. report (with the exception of table 1 and 2 following the charts) are based The new and old series are compared in Appendix table IV. on the new series.

-2Business loans at banks remained about unchanged

(2)

in August,

following a small July advance, but the volume of commercial and finance company paper outstanding rose $600 million, as the wide differential between the bank prime and commercial paper rates continued to make the paper market relatively attractive.

Banks allowed CD's to run off for the seventh straight month,

and the bank credit proxy declined. (3)

Following the August FOMC meeting, the Desk continued to

provide reserves consistent with the Federal funds rate remaining in a range of 6-1/8 to 6-1/4 per cent.

On the basis of data for the aggregates that

became available after Labor Day,

the staff reduced its projection of M1

growth for August-September to the lower part of the Committee's range of tolerance and its projection of M2 growth below the bottom of the range.

view of the expectation of a substantial strengthening in demands for money and credit over coming months, and the likelihood that a decline in the Federal funds rate may have to be reversed shortly, the Committee concurred on September 5 in the Chairman's recommendation to instruct the Desk to continue aiming at a Federal funds rate in a 6-1/8 to 6-1/4 per cent area, leaning toward the lower figure.

In the most recent statement week,

the

funds rate averaged 6.15 per cent. (4) Treasury bill rates have changed little on balance since the August meeting, even though the Treasury continued to add significantly to the supply of bills. 6.45 per cent.

The 3-month bill was most recently trading around

Private short-term rates, on the other hand, increased

10-15 basis points, as the demand for funds in the commercial paper market rose.

-3(5)

Over most of the intermeeting period, yields on Treasury coupon

issues edged lower, and corporate bond yields remained about unchanged, reflecting the stability of short-term rates, System purchases of coupon issues in

late August,

and a lull in

the volume of new offerings in

both sectors.

Municipal yields rose to record levels during the intermeeting period as the financial problems facing New York City continued to cast a pall. However,

on September 9,

the New York State legislature adopted a financial

plan that would avoid a near-term default on the City's outstanding securities and cover the City's cash needs through mid-December.

atmosphere improved and prices of MAC issues strengthened. Treasury's September 10 announcement of its remainder of 1975,

however,

yields in

response,

the market

Following the

sizable cash requirements over the

all bond markets adjusted upward.

Throughout the intermeeting period, mortgage rates advanced as demands for mortgage funds expanded and lenders became more uncertain as to the cost and availability of savings funds.

(6)

The Treasury indicated that it would be raising about $44 to

$47 billion in the second half of 1975, which is about $3-$6 billion more than previously announced.

Allowing for the funds already raised since mid-year,

the remaining cash need to be covered between now and year-end appears to be

in the $23-$26 billion range.

A substantial amount of this will be auctioned

between now and the next Committee meeting.

The Treasury will raise $1 billion

of new cash in the monthly 2-year note auction on September 16, and will offer $2 billion of 29-month notes on September 24.

is also likely that another

$5 billion will be auctioned in the note market near the time of the next Committee meeting on October 21.

Meanwhile,

the Treasury will also be

adding to weekly and monthly bill auctions,

though in

auctions by somewhat lesser amounts than in

recent months.

the case of the weekly

-4(7)

The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual

rates of change) selected monetary and financing flows over various time periods.

-5Calendar Year

Twelve Months

Past Six Months

Past Three Months

Past Month

Aug. '75

1974

over Aug. '74

over Feb. '75

over May 75

over July '75

8.5

-1.2

-2.0

-14.4

10.7

8.6

-2.4

-1.7

-11.5

8.9

-0.9

-2.0

0.3

-6.0

M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/

4.8

5.0

8.6

8.3

4.1

M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's)

7.2

8.6

11.2

11.3

6.3

M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions)

6.8

10.6

14.2

9.9

Total reserves Nonborrowed reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits

Concepts of Money (Revised Series)

(M2 plus CD's)

10.6

6.7

5.8

(M3 plus CD's)

9.0

9.2

10.4

5.0

10.2

3.2

3.1

1.7

-4.7

9.2

1.8

4.3

4,3

6.8

2.2

-.5

-2.4

-2.5

-4.1

Nonbank commercial paper .4 .1 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government.

-.2

-1.1

Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change

in billions) Large CD's

2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (8)

Summarized below for Committee consideration are specifi-

cations for three alternative short-run policy courses.

More detailed

figures--including longer-run growth rates--are presented in the tables on pp. 6a and 6b. Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Ranges of tolerance for Sept.-Oct.

6½-8½

6-8

5½-7½

8-10

7½-9½

6-8¾

2½-4½

2-4

1½-3½

5¾-7

6½-8

RPD Federal funds rate (intermeeting range) (9)

-7½

Following relatively slow growth in the July-August period,

in September and October M1 is expected to expand at rates more nearly consistent with the underlying strength of transactions demands.

Deposit

expansion in the previous months had been dampened as the public brought deposit holdings into a more normal relationship with income and interest rates, following the sharp bulge in late spring resulting from special Treasury payments.

This process now appears to have been completed.

Under alternative A --which assumes the same Federal funds rate range for the forthcoming intermeeting period as that adopted at the last meeting--M 1 is

expected to rise at an annual rate in the 6½-3½ per cent

area over this and the next month on average.

M 2 growth is also likely

to accelerate, mainly reflecting the more rapid expansion on demand deposits.

-6aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1975 August September October

294.5 296.2 298.2

294.5 296.1 298.0

1975 QII OIII QIV

289.1 294.7 300.4

1976 QI QII

305.5 310.2

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

294.5 296.1 297.8

653.9 658.6 663.7

653.9 658.4 663.2

653.9 658.2 662.4

1064.8 1073.5 1082.4

1064.8 1073.3 1081.5

1064.8 1073.0 1080.3

289.1 294.7 300.2

289.1 294.7 299.8

637.0 654.3 668.9

637.0 654.3 667.8

637.0 654.2 666.5

1029.7 1064.8 1090.9

1029.7 1064.7 1088.9

1029.7 1064.6 1086.6

304.8 308.5

304.1 307.3

682.3 694.6

679.8 689.6

676,7 684.0

1113.3 1133.6

1108.7 1125.2

1103.4 1116.1

Levels

Growth Rates 1975 September October

6.9 8.1

6.5 7.7

6.5 6.9

8.6 9.3

8.3 8.7

7.9 7.7

9.8 9.9

QIII

7.7 7.7

7.7 7.5

7.7 6.9

10.9 8.9

10.9 8.3

10.8 7.5

13.6

1976 QI Q11

6.8 6.2

6.1 4.9

5.7 42

8.0 7.2

7.2 5.8

6.1 4.3

QII '75-QIV '75

7.8

7.7

7.4

10.0

9.7

9.3

QIV '75-QII

'76

6.5

5.5

5.1

7.7

6.5

5.3

QII '75-Q0I

'76

7.3

6.7

6.3

9.0

8.3

7.4

QIV

9.2

9.2 8.2

9.8

13.6 9.1

13.6 8.3

8.2 7.3

7.3 6.0

6.2 4.6

11.9

7.8 10.1

9.6

11.5

11.1

6.7

5.4

9.3

8.4

MEMO

Committee Target Ranges

84-10~

10-12

- 6b Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd)

Credit Proxy

Levels 1975 August September Octnber 1975

QII

QIII QIV 1976

QII

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

731.9 736.0 740.3

731.9 735.9 740.1

731.9 735.7 739.7

1142.9 1150.9 1159.0

1142.9 1150.8 1158.4

1142.9 1150.5 1157.5

503.3 504.6 507.2

503.3 504.5

503.3 504.4 507.0

723.0 733.5 746.0

723.0 733.5 745.4

723.0 733.4 744.7

1115.8 1144.0 1168.0

1115.8 1144.0 1166.5

1115.8 1143.9 1164.8

503.0 504.4 511.2

503.0 510.9

503.0 504.3 510.6

762.0 777.3

760.2 773.4

758.1 769.9

1193.1 1216.3

1189.0 1209.0

1184.9 1202.1

520.6 527.9

519.5 525.5

518.4 523.8

Growth Rates 1975 September October

6.7 7.0

6.6 6.8

6.2 6.5

8.4 8.4

QII QIV

5.8 6.8

5.8 6.5

5.8 6.2

10.1 8.4

QII

7.9 6.9

7.2 6.2

QII '75-QIV '75

6.2

QIV '75-QII

'76

7.5

QII '75-QII

'76

1976

7.5

8.3 7.9

8.0 7.3

507.1

504.4

3.1 6.2

2.9 6.2

2.6 6.2

1.1 5.4

1.1 5.2

1.0 5.0

10.1 7.9

10.1 7.3

8.6 7.8

7.7 6.7

6.9 5.8

7.4 5.6

6.7 4.6

6.1 4.2

6.0

9.4

9.1

8.8

3.3

3.1

3.0

6.8

8.3

7.3

6.4

6.5

5.7

5.2

6.5

9.0

8.4

7.7

5.0

4.5

4.1

However, growth in consumer-type time and savings deposits also is expected to strengthen a little, at least temporarily, from its reduced August rate. (10)

If Federal funds over the next few weeks were to continue

trading in the recent 6-1/8--6¾ per cent range, market interest rates generally would be likely to show little further net change.

Interest

rates on Treasury securities--particularly bills and short-intermediate issues--have been adjusting upward recently in response to the cash need and financing package announced by the Treasury on Wednesday.

Some

further yield increases could occur, though, as the new securities are auctioned, with about $8

billion of new cash to be raised through auctions

of coupon issues between now and around the time of the next meeting. (11)

Business borrowing in the corporate bond market over the

weeks ahead is likely to be at a slower rate than in the first half of this year, though picking up from the reduced August pace and still quite sizable by historical standards.

The prospective volume of state

and local government issues remains relatively large.

The municipal market

could be stabilized, for a time, by the assistance package for New York City enacted by the New York State legislature.

It is possible that the

period of calm may last into the fall, but there are still substantial uncertainties in the market, typified by the slow reception initially accorded the recent offering of generously priced short-term New York State issues. (12)

Given the large amount of Treasury borrowing that is

being compressed into the next month or so, as well as the still sensitive

-8state of the municipal market,

a significant rise in

the Federal funds

rate--for example, toward the upper end of the 5-3/4--7 per cent range of alternative A--would likely lead to substantial further yield advances. Interest rate increases would be accentuated if

strengthening credit

demands on banks from businesses and consumers were at the same time reducing bank willingness to add to Treasury security holdings. (13) in

While alternative A basically assumes little

the Federal funds rate between now and the next meeting,

believes the funds rate would have to rise later in

or no change the staff

the fall if

the

monetary aggregates are to remain on track with the Committee's longerrun objectives.

A funds rate in

the 7-7

per cent area would be expected

by late fall, assuming a longer-run M 1 objective characterized by 7

per

cent growth from QII '75 to QII '76 (the assumption of the Green Book GNP projection), with further funds rate increases anticipated in the first half of next year.

Attainment of a longer-run 6

per cent annual

rate of growth in M1 would be likely to require more prompt and intensive pressure on the funds market.

In view of the further interest rate increases

expected given either of these two M1 growth rates,we have assumed, in working out all of the alternatives in this bluebook, a small upward adjustment in Regulation Q ceilings around year-end of ¼ to ½ percentage point on time certificates. is

With this assumption, longer-run M2 growth

projected toward the low end of the Committee's announced target

range under alternative A.

-9(14)

Alternative C encompasses an immediate substantial tightening

of the money market and is characterized by a Federal funds rate range for the intermeeting period of 6 -8 per cent, centering on 7¼ per cent. With growth in nonborrowed reserves more constrained, member bank borrowing under this alternative would be likely to rise to $400 million or more, given the 6 per cent discount rate.

Nonetheless,

growth of M 1 in

September-October would probably be reduced somewhat, area.

to the 6-8 per cent

Interest rates generally would rise quite sharply during the next

month under this alternative, particularly given the very large Treasury financing demands described in paragraph (6). rate to [8]per cent or a little

A rise in the 3-month bill

above would not be unlikely, and the yield

on 2-year Treasury notes could exceed 9 per cent. (15)

Such rate levels would undoubtedly divert savings flows

away from banks and thrift institutions.

The staff would expect the

annual rate of growth in consumer-type time deposits at banks and deposits at thrift institutions to drop to around a 7-8 per cent rate in October. Pressures on such flows would be intensified later in the fall and early next year, when further increases in the Federal funds rate would be expected. (16)

Under alternative C mortgage market conditions may be

expected to tighten rather promptly, with rates rising further over the next few weeks and with lenders becoming less willing to make loan commitments.

Under alternative A, and to a certain extent under

alternative B (to be discussed below),

strains on the mortgage

market would be more delayed and less severe.

The assumed adjustment

in Regulation Q ceilings would temper the impact of upward market rate adjustments on savings inflows to thrift institutions after year-end, but the mortgage market would still pressure next year.

be expected to come under additional

-10(17)

Alternative B contemplates a modest tightening of money

market conditions between now and the next Committee meeting, as indicated by the 6-3/4 per cent mid-point of a 6-7 funds rate range.

per cent Federal

As in the other alternatives, additional tightening

would appear to be necessary later this year and early next year.

The

staff has assumed that the Federal funds rate under this alternative would probably rise to the 7 -8

per cent area by late fall.

This

particular funds rate pattern would be consistent with a one-year growth rate for M1 between QII '75 and QII '76 downward revision of $1.2 billion in second quarter of 1975, average level of M1 in 6

of 6-3/4 per cent.

Given the

the average level of M1 in

such a growth rate would result in

the

the same

the second quarter of 1976 as was implied by the

per cent growth path presented in

the previous bluebook.

-11Proposed directive (18)

Given below is a proposed operational paragraph if the

Committee wishes to continue formulating its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead.

alternatives are presented for this formulation, in the expectations that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the longer-term targets and that the Committee will not be reconsidering its present 5 to

per cent target range--with which all of the short-run operating

alternatives discussed in the preceding sections are consistent--until the October meeting. "Monetary aggregates" proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. (19)

Should the Committee desire to formulate the directive

in terms of bank reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought.

These alternative

"money market" directives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below. Alternative "money market" proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: achieve] MAINTAIN ABOUT THE PREVAILING bank reserve and money

-12-

market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD,

PROVIDED

THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED [DEL: monetary in growth moderate with consistent ahead]. months the over aggregates Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT FIRMER bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD,

PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES

DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT RATES BELOW THOSE CURRENTLY EXPECTED months the over aggregates monetary in growth moderate with consistent [DEL:

ahead]. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve FIRMER bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD,

PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES DO NOT

APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT RATES BELOW THOSE CURRENTLY EXPECTED the over aggregates monetary in growth moderate with consistent [DEL: ahead]. months

CHART 1

CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS IH-FOMC 9/12/75

RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-Sept

- 33

I J

A 1975

S28

M M

i JJ 1974

M M

S S

I J

D D

1975

RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios

CHART 2

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC

9/12/75

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -300

305

- 280

300

7% growth for August-September

- 280

~ iLI~

iiLLLI

L1ae

295 growth

BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 660

290

1875

A 1975

-1

9/12/75

CHART 3

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

520

500

480

46e

RESERVES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 39

TOTAL

- 35

VL I

1974 1975 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios

8/15/75

CHART 4

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES EY MARKET CONDITIONS

PER CENT 14

INTEREST RATES Short-term

PER CENT

- 13

SFEDERAL FUNDS

,L -

FR DISCOUNT RATE B 9

1974

1975

1974

1975

1974

1975

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 1

SEPT.

BANK RESERVES

12,

1975

(ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) RESERVES AVAILABLE

RESERVES AVAILABLE o PRIVATE FOR Period

NONBANK DEPOSITS N A SA SA5 1

REQUIRED RESERVES

AGGREGATE RESERVES Total Reserves 3 3

ADJUSTED

_SEASONALLY

Nonborrowed Reserves 4

Total Required 1

Private Demand 6 6

Other Time CD's and Gov't. and Interbank Nondeposits Deposits 7 9 7 1 8 1 9

MONTHLY LEVELS-tMILLIONS 1975--JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. PERCENT ANNUAL

32,995 32.938 32,772 (32,735)

32,734 32,812 32,524 (32,548)

34,872 34,991 34,571 (34,585)

34,645 34,690 34,359 (34,275)

34,671 34,803 34,372 (34,437)

199799 19,847 19,796 (19,874)

(

8,665 8,613 8,698 8.749)

4,330 4,290 4,079 ( 3.965)

19877 2,053 1,799 ( 1,850)

GROWTH

QUARTERLY 1975--IST OTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR.

-4.7 0.5 -3.2

-8.3 1.2 -3.3

-1.4 -0.2 -4.3

-7.7 1.2 -2.7

-4.2 11.7 1.5

-7.6 -9.2 3.9

-1.4 -2.5 -1.3

-0.9 -3.7 -1.1

11.5 -2.8 -2.8

-0.7 -3.6 -1.2

-3.3 8.0 5.7

-0.1 -12.0 -1.7

4.6 -14.9 ( 2.3)

(

-6.3)

QUARTERLY-AV 1975--1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD OTR. MONTHLY 1975--JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. AUG.-SEPT.

(

9.1 -2.1 -6.0 -1.4)

10.3 4.1 -14.4 0.S) I

(

4.8 1.6 -11.5 -2.9)

(

-3.7)

(

-7.2)

-7.0)

8.8

(

24.3 2.9 -3.1 4.7) 0.8)

-6.9 -7.2 11.8 7.0)

9.5)

WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1975--JULY

9 16 23 30

33,025 32,888 32,753 33,003

32,598 32,766 32,769 33,025

34.924 34.916 34,896 35,077

34,702 34,714 34,514 34,824

34,791 34,843 34,693 34.796

19,962 19 866 19,675 19.865

8,600 8,618 8,604 8,622

4,330 4,330 49270 4,235

19899 2*028 2,143 2,074

AUG.

6 13 20 27

329885

32,617 32,262 32,633 32,551

34,751

32 ,63 32,853 32,758

34,515

34,571 34,152 34,483 34,243

34,552 34,315 34,476 34,216

19,857 19 749 19,890 19t688

8.653 8,677 8,696 8,744

4,176 4.121 4,057 4.027

1,867 1,768 1.834 1,758

32.852

32,609

34,613

34,391

34.292

19,811

8,727

3 993

1,761

SEPT.

NOTE:

34,331 34,687

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF AUG. 19, 1975 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD DATA SHOWN IN PARANTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. RANGE OF -1.5 TO -4.0 PERCENT FOR THE AUG.-SEPT. PERIOD.

Table 2

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.)

MONETARY AGGREGATES

CLASS.FOMC SEPT.

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad

Period

(M)

Adjusted Credit

US Govt

(M2)

Proxy

Deposits

Total

Than CD's

CD's

TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other

Nondeposit Sources of Funds 8

MONTHLY LEVELS-$BILLIONS 1975--JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT.

294.0 294.5 295.6 (297.3)

647.3 651.7 655.2 (659.9)

507.5 505.3 503.3 (504.5)

2.4 11.0 4.5

8.4 13.3 7.8

3.1 7.5 -2.4

10.1 6.8 2.5

13.6 15.3 10.4

-2.2 -25.4 -31.9

1.0 9.0 7.6

6.4 11.3 10.8

4.1 5.2 1.1

12.8 5.3 4.6

11.1 13.4 13.4

19.2 -24.0 -31.6

11.6 5.5 -4.6 6.61

19.7 13.2 8.1 9.71

(

-19.6 -28.5 -59.9 -9.21

1.0)

8.9)

(

-34.3)

(

3.8 2.5 2.9 2.2)

437.3 439.3 437.6 (440.0)

353.3 357.2 359.6 1362.5)

(

84.1 82.1 78.0 77.4)

(

7.0 6.8 7.0 7.0)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. OUARTERLY-AV 1975--1ST OTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. MONTHLY 1975--JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT.

(

AUG.-SEPT.

(

17.8 2.0 4.5 6.9)

(

5.7) 1

18.8 8.2 6.4 8.6)

(

15.1 -5.2 -4.7 2.9)

7.51

-0.9)

1 I

WEEKLY LEVELS-SBILLIOMS 1975--JULY

9 16 23 30

293.5 295.3 295.0 293.4

649.7 652.5 652. 651.7

504.6 506.3 505.9 503.9

2.9 2.9 2.5 2.0

439.7 440.1 439.5 438.8

356.1 357.2 357.9 358.3

83.6 82.9 81.6 80.5

6.5 6.6 7.0 7.0

AUG.

6 13 20 27

295.6 294.1 294.9 207.0

654.2 653.T 654.4 656.7

503.8 502.7 503.1 504.0

2.7 2.5 2.7 3.1

438.0 438.2 437.4 436.7

358.6 359.5 359.5 359.7

79.4 78.7 77.9 77.0

6.8 6.8 7.1 7.3

296.3

657.3

504.0

3.6

438.0

361.0

77.1

7.1

SEPT.

3 P

NOTE: DATA

-A-

SHOWN IN PARENTHESES

ARE CURRENT

PROJECTIONS.

PRELIMINARY

12,

1975

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC

SEPTEMBER 12, 1975 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECT OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Daily Average Reserve Effects 2/

Open Market Operations 1/

Bills

Coupon

Agency

RP's

& Accept

Issues

Net

(2)

(3)

(1)

(4)

Open Market Total

Operations

(5)

(6)

Member

Bank Borrowing

(7)

Target

In Reserve Categories

Other 4/

Req. res. against

available res. 5/

vailable

Factors

U.S.G. and interb.

(6)+(7)+(8)-(9)

reserves5/

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

-499 -773

-344 13

-1,627 -774

-670 -495

54 1 -96

412 -734 580

495 -170 215

1975-Feb. Mar.

-1,015 112

316 1,301

295 207

714 -1,758

309 -136

-1,241 53

-243 -41

Apr. May June

1,319 197 -413

1,070 50 958

-2 -97 -6

5,442 -3,357 -1,855

7,829 -3,207 -1,317

2,229 5,064 -3,165

4 -50 211

July Aug. Sept.

-2,302 -371

-274

-2 313

-623 1,007

-2,926 1,222

-832 -1,332

-10 -51p

624

-1

-4,183

-3,545

1,832

683

-1,740

345

430

9 16

-192 -214

--- -5,357 5,094

-5,549 4,880

-2,692 -1,599

-649 -20

2,472 1,871

-250 84

-619 168

-1,206

569

-638

505

180

-651

-337

-300

-637

-128

-129

358

-155

256

6 13 20 27

-382 -573 5 321

966* -566* -399* --

---313

-3,822 2,488 3,067 -2,632

-3,238** 1,349** 2,673** -1,998

-1,154** -1,521** 1,865** 575

-73 -2 26 68

781 1,134 -1,425 2 -79 p

-37 36 95 -67p

409 -425 371 -82p

3 10 17 24

-113 -223

273 --

-1 -1

2,225 -3,833

2,384 -4,057

747 -1,857

-50 163

-633p 1,208p

6p 31p

58p -517p

-1,767 -5,747 3.438

553 p

206

167 3 -12 p

-456 -1,466p

Oct.

1975--July

Aug.

Sept.

1/ 2/ 3/ 4/

-1

Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; Represents change in daily average level for preceeding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations,

5/ Reserves to support private nonbank deposits.

includes redemptions in regular bill

F.R.

float,

gold and foreign accounts,

auctions.

and other F.R.

accounts.

Target change for Aug. & Sept. reflects the target adopted at the Aug. 19, 1975 FOMC Meeting.

Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. ** Reflects special certificate purchase. (Direct Treasury borrowing from F.R.) * Special certificate P- Preliminary.

-325 -45

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II --FOMC SEPTEMBER 12, 1975 TABLE 4 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Coupons

Federal Agencies

Net

Treasury Bills

Period

Net

Change

Change 2/

Net Purchases 3/ Within

Over

__1-year

1972 1973 1974

Net Purchases 4/ Over

Within

1 - 5

5 - 10

Total

1-year

1 - 5

539 500 434

167 129 196

1,582 1,415 1,747

46 120 439

592 400 1,665

253 244 659

168 101 318

1,059 864 3,082

1,631 9,273 6,303

-1,358 46 - 154

874 945 43

160 49 102

232 118 215

109 62 131

54 73 45

555 302 492

106 195 138

430 726 371

229 165 130

103 117 53

870 1,203 691

2,188 2,620 1,402

169

285

-2,093

1,054*

625

312

2,024*

Qtr. II

1,086

218

1,135*

454

273

2,079

1975--Mar.

115

620*

451

212

1,301*

Apr. May June

1,295 143 352

148 50 20

485 650*

274 180

164 109

1,070 50r 958*

July

-2,305

150

274r

497* --- 67 --- 57 --- 624* ----

-369 2 9 16 23 30

5 188 208 -1,199 -337

6 13 20 27

Sept. 3 10

Total 5/

789 579 797

1975--Qtr. I

Aug.

Total

87 207 320

1975--July

RP's Net 6/

490 7,232 1,280

1974--Qtr. II Qtr. III Qtr. IV

Aug.

5 - 10

Outright Holdings

--- 13 --

150 --

373 565 --

312 -116 -200

64 --

47 --

-2

166

584

508

-2

3,076

230

210

1,620

-1,758

2,387 150 539

5,442 -3,357 -1,855

-2

-2,304

-623

229

353

216

1,007

638 192

-4,183 -5,357 5,094 569 -300

--- --

--- --- --- --

--- --

229

353

--- --

--- -

273 -

-2 --- __

358 986 238

-214 -1,207 -337 584 394 634

-3,822 2,488 3,067 -2,632

159 -223

2,225 -3,833

-1,138 -

17 24 ..

Change from and-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). Revised to include short-term coupons acquired in exchange for maturing hills.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC SEPTEMBER 12, 1975 TABLE 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions

Dealer Positions Corporate Municipal Bonds Bonds (3)

Excess** Reserves

Member Rank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit Total Seasonal 8 New York 38 Others (7) (6) (8) (9)

(1)

Coupon Issues (2)

1974--High Low

3,678 -289

2,203 -309

253 0

628 -168

3,906 647

176 13

-7,870 -2,447

-12,826

1975--High Low

6,094 1,586

2,845 532

464 0

577 -50

871 18

40 5

-7,387 -1,757

-11,390

1974--Aug. Sept.

1,758 2,309

398 552

33 23

197 180

3,337 3,282

164 139

-4,231 -4,235

- 9,224 - 8,250

Oct. Nov. Dec.

2,174 2,900 2,985

654 1,608 1,836

25 83 175

197 205 258

1,813

117 67 32

-4.602 -6,322 -5,960

- 8,689 - 9,715

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar.

2,501 3,329 3,143

2,050 2,121 2,521

97 144 307

147 198 195

398

14 11 7

-5,378 -6,318 -5,732

- 9,744 - 9,533

Apr. May

1,617 1,752 1,351

35 91 89

143 155 201

110

6 9 11

-4,079 -3,965 -5,821

-10,426

June

2,737 4,744 5,201

July Aug.

4,231 *4,020

1,246 *1,204

60 44

188 211p

259 180p

-5.546 -3,964

- 9,896 - 9,966

1975--July

4,197 4,029 4,426 4.237 4,241

1,791 1,310 1,064 1,295 963

58 36 74 72 63

396 133 73 203 281

871 222 202 382 253

15 13 16 19 20

-5,652 -6,593 -6,582 -4,759 -4,306

- 8,267

3,958 4,007 *4,045 *4,618

1,995 1,150

96 33 4 0

199 16 211 299p

180 179 204 2 2 7 p

29 35 35 40p

-4,082 -4,988 -3,672 -3,313

- 9,547

1 48p

321p 47p

222p 385p

51p 4 5 p

-2,838p -4,928p

Period

Bills

Aug.

13 20 27 Sept. 3 10 17 24 NOTE:

*4,294 *5,070

769

*1,152 *1,103 *

894

(5)

1,252 727

147 96

66 227

- 6,046

- 8,070

-10,169

-10,302 - 9,567 - 9,344

-10,124 -10,928 - 9,773 - 8,785

-10,640 - 9,733 - 9,870 9 3 99

-10.293p

Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserves less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) SEPTEMBER 12, 1975 TABLE 6 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent) -1

Short-Term

Treasury Bills Period I

Federal Funds

(1)

90-day (2)

1-vear (3)

Short-Term90-119 Day Commercial I

-1

Panor -'--

(4)

Aaa Utility New Recently

CD's New Issue-NYC li-

Ilav

(5)

I I

. ol--I1

'"'l

Issue

(6)

(7)

Offered (8)

Long-Term Municipall U.S. Government Bond (20-yr. Constant IBuae

(9)

Maturity) (10)

FNMA Auctions Yelrs

Yields (11)

1974--High Low

13.55 8.45

9.63 6.53

9.54 6.39

12.25

12.25 8.00

12.00 7.88

10.61 8.05

10.52 8.14

7.15

5.16

8.68 7.40

10.59

7.88

1975--High Low

7.70 5.13

7.02 5.02

7.26 5.46

9.34 5.38

9.00 5.25

9.00

9.71

5.38

9.80 8.89

9.06

7.40 6.27

8.57 7.63

9.70 8.78

1974--Aug. Sept.

12.01

8.96 8.06

8.88 8.52

11.79

11.34

11.36

11.69 11.19

11.91 11.38

10.07 10.38

10.19 10.30

6.69 6.76

8.60 8.60

10.25 10.58

Oct. Nov. Dec.

10.06 9.45 8.53

7.46 7.47 7.15

7.59 7.29 6.79

9.55 8.95 9.18

9.35 8.78 9.00

9.33

10.23 9.34 9.56

6.57

8.84

10.16 9.21 9.53

8.37 7.99 7.91

10.22 9.87 9.53

7.13 6.24 5.54

6.26 5.50 5.49

6.27 5.56 5.70

7.39 6.36

7.43 6.00 5.88

7.45 6.25 6.03

9.36 8.97 9.35

9.45 9.09

6.82

9.38

6.39 6.74

7.88 7.71 7.99

9.25 8.93 8.82

Apr. May June

5.49 5.22

6.40 5.91 5.86

6.11

5.85 5.44 5.34

6.03 5.63

5.55

5.61 5.23 5.34

5.51

9.67 9.63 9.20

9.66 9.65 9.33

6.94 6.97 6.94

8.36 8.22 8.04

9.06 9.27 9.09

July Aug.

6.10 6.14

6.13 6.44

6.64 7.16

6.32 6.59

6.05 6.31

6.25 6.63

9.42 9.45

9.43 9.49

7.06 7.17

8.17

8.50

9.14 9,41

2 9 16 23 30

6.31 6.06 5.93 6.14 6.25

5.94 6.06 6.04 6.19 6.25

6.45 6.51 6.49 6.72 6.83

6.20 6.28 6.25 6.35 6.38

5.88 6.00 6.00 6.13 6.25

6.00 6.13 6.13 6.50 6.50

9.62 9.38 9.53 9.25 9.37

9.30 9.45 9.57 9.33

6.96 6.98 7.09 7.22 7.09

8.13

9.07

8.16 8.13 8.18 8.27

9.10

6 13 20 27

6.09 6.08 6.15 6.23

6.37

6.99

7.15

6.44 6.52

7.23 7.26

6.50 6.58 6.63 6.63

6.38 6.25 6.25 6.38

6.50

6.41

9.44 9.43 9.53 9.49

9.51 9.49 9.54

3 10 17 24

6.06 6.15

6.40 6.39

7.08 7.06

6.69 6.75

6.38 6 38

6.75 6.88

6.19 2 . 1p

6.33 6.46

7.03 7.23

6 75 6.75

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar.

July

Aug.

Sept.

Dally--Sept.

4 11

un,".

NOTE:

6.06 5.70 5.67

8.72

6.63 6.63 6.75

9.63p

9.35

6.61 7.05

8.49

9.50

7.16 7.17 7.18 7.18

9.41 9.52p

7.34 7.40

8.43

9.17

8.50 8.53

9.32

8.48

9.50

8.47 8 57p

9.70

8.46 n.a.

-~-------

Weekly

data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7,8, and 10 the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceeding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. Preliminary.

APPENDIX TABLE 1-A

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

Period

Total

Non borrowed borrowed

Available to Support Pt

Deposits

ANNUALLV:

1972 1973 1974

10.8 7.9 8.5

7.5 7.3 10.7

10.1 9.2 8.9

10.8 5.9

0.4 21.0

12.6 4.9

Ad Credit proxy

Total Loans and Invest.

12,

1975

13.2 8.8 6.8

12.5 11.6 10.6

14.0 10.6 9.0

7.9 5.4

13.3 7.5

10.9 6.7

11.0 6.5

12.9

7.5

10.7

9.8

ments

4 5 6 7 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 1.3 1.4 0.2

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

BANK CREDIT MEASURES

RESERVES 1/ RESERVES

SE P

14.6 13.5 9.2

8.7 6.1 4.8

11, 8. 7.

12.9 11.2 9.1

12.9 11.9 8.9

SEMI-ANNUALLY: IST HAL 1974 2ND HALF 1974

8.7 10.5

1ST HALF 1975

-3.6

-0.8

-2.1

10.6

QUARTERLY: 39D QTR. 4TH QTR.

1974 1974

8.2 3.6

IST OTR, 1975 2N OQTR. 1975

5.5 36.0

9.1 0.8

6.7 4.2

7.3 -1.0

1.0 5.3

4.2 6.7

3.9 6.9

5.8 9.0

4.9 8.4

5.6 8.1

6.3 6.5

4.3 2.3

0.8 11.2

7.6 13.4

9.9 15.6

6.3 8.6

8.8 12.3

7.9 12.0

7.6 11.8

6.0 6.2

5.2

9.0 7.3

7.2

-8.3 1.2

-1.4

-0.2

-4.7 0.5

3.1 7.5

11.3 1.4

1.2 27.3

12.1 2.5

9.9 3.5

10.6 0.2

3.5 3.9

11.5 -2.8

-1.4 -2.5

4.1 5.2

0.1 3.5

-0.3 8.6

-3.9 6.8 -3.1 -1.6 15.5

-5.6

10.8 7.8

6.4 4.2 -0.2 5.2 7.6

11.1 -6.9 1.4 5.0 -9.4

0.4 0.9 3.8 8.5 3.4

7.9 -27.3 -5.5 8.3 -14.7 10.3 4.1 -14.4

19.4 -19.1 -4.1 9.1 -13.2 4.8 1.6

3.6 -0.2 5.8 5.1 2.4 15.1 -5.2 -4.7

3.5 2.8 6.7

-11.8 3.4 11.0 3.4 11.3 18.7 2.0 4.1

UUARTERLY-AV: 3RD OTR. 4TH OTR. 1ST QTR. 2ND OTR.

1974 1974 1975 1975

-0.9 -3.7

5.8 11.2

7.8 13.7

7.4 6.6

10.6

3.8 3.0 7.1 7.7 5.9

4.4 4.4 9.8 5.7 11.4

3.7 4.0 8.0

5.6 9.9 13.9 11.7 14.9 19.7 12.5 9.8

6.7 6.1 6.1 4.2 7.0 14.3 4.1 -1.1

7.6 6.8 8.0 9.9

MONTHLY: 1974--AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV.

OEC. 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. P

9.6

51.9 18.5 34.7

-11.5

-1.5

-2.7 6., 6.0

-8.6 -5.5 2.9 -10.3 9.1 -2.1

-6.0

2.4 3.8 0.9 5.3 6.4

4.6 3.0 8.4 7.9 3.7 2.5 8.4 11.6 7.3 13.4 19.2 8.2 6.3

10.8

7.9 8.2 10.2 9.2 10.7 16.6 9.5

4.8

4.2 4.4 8.8 5.8 9.4

5.3 5.0 8.5 3.6 7.3

8.2 7.0 8.2 9.6 10.0 16.1 9.3 5.1

7.5 6.9 8.5 9.5 9.8 15.7 9.0 5.1

NOTES:

RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY.

16,

1969,

AND REQUIREMENTS

ON BANK-RELATED

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

SEPT.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS CREDIT MEASURES

-BANK

RESERVES!

Period l

Tota Total

Non No, borrowed

Available to SUP

Adl

1 1972 1973

30,321 32,711

2 29,278 31,413

3 28.039 30,610

1975

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

Total Loans

Credit

and

proxy

Invest

Deposits

12,

985.5 1095.4

1133.6

ments

4 406.4 448.7

5 559., 634.4

255.8 271.5

525.7

'72.2

844.9 919.6

569.1 636.0

a3ee. 98341

1013,1

MONTHLY: 197

4--AUG. SEPT.

34,988 35,187

31.652 31,904

33,064 33,278

487.5

35,097 35,050 35.503

33,284 33.798 34,776

33,236 33,160 33,341

488.3

1975--JAM. FEB. MAR.

35.73T 34,925 34,764

35,339 34,777 34,658

33.341 33.103 32,951

APR. MAY JUNE

35,003 34,574 34,872

34,892 34,508 34,645

OCT. NOV. DEC.

JULY AUG. P

34,991 34.571

34,690 34,359

699.2 695.2

280.5 280.7

601.9 603.4

962.6 965.0

685.7 688.2

1046.4 1049.9

1167.2 1171.5

1209.9 1214.9

491.2 494.3

696.q 697.4 691.9

281.6 283.6 284.4

607.6 611.6 613.5

970.? 976.9 981.7

693.8 697.1 703.7

1056.9 1062.4 1072.0

1180.1 1185.8 1195.1

495.8 495.7 498.1

1223.5 1227.2 1234.7

693.9 695.5 699.4

281.6 282.4 285.0

614.8 619.1 625.1

986.3 994.4 1005.9

707.6 711.2 714.8

1079.1 1086.5 1095.7

33.032 32,74 32,995

1203.3 1210.3 1218.6

500.2 501.2 507.5

1242.4 1249.5 1258.3

700R.8 703.0 703.5

285.8 288.5 293.0

628.9 635.9

646.1

1015.7 1028.3 1045.2

717.3 721.5 730.1

1104.1 1113.9 1129.3

32,938 32,772

1228.3 1238.5 1255.1

505.3 503.3

1268.3 1278.7 1295.4

706.6 710.6

293.5 294.5

650.5 653.9

1056.1 1064.7

732.6 731.9

1138.2 1142.8

1264.8 1270.2

1305.1 1310.6

489.2

WEEKLY: 1975--JULY

AUG.

9 16 23 30

34,924 34,916 34,896 35.O77

34,702 34,714 34,514 34,824

33.025 32,888 32,753 33,003

504.6 506.3 505.9 503.9

34,751 34.331 34,687 34,515

34,571 34.152 34,483 34,243

32.885 32,563 32.853 32,758

503.8 502.7

34,391

32.852

13 20 27P SEPT.

NOTES:

S34,613

292.6 294.3 294.0 292.4

648m5 651*3 651.7 650.5

732.1 734.2 733.3 731.0

504.0

294.6 293.1 293.9 296.6

653.0 652.4 653.2 655.5

732.4 731.1 731.1 732.4

504.2

295.2

656.0

733.0

503.1

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS. AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGSOF BANK U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA.

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

SEPT.

12,

1975

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period

Currency

Demand osits

Total me

Deposits Deposits__

ANNUALLY:

Time Other Other Cns

Mutual Savings Bank ank

Credit Union Union

and S & L

CD's CD's

Savings IndsI B

Securities

Shares 6 7 4 5 6 7 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

Short Short Term Pacer . Gov't ICommercia

8 8

9 9

10 10

8.2 8.3 10,2

8.9 5.5 3.1

18.0 13.9 11.8

31.0 45.3 41.5

0.5 30.9 15.7

15.0 38.8 3.4

IST HALF 1974 2ND HALF 1974

9.7 10.2

5.2 1.0

13.0 9.9

54.9

19.2 11.2

12.5 -5.4

1ST HALF 1975

9.7

5.8

22.5

2.3

3.5

1972 1973 1974 SEMI-ANNUALLY:

22.1

-13.7

QUARTERLY: 3RD OTR. 4TH QTR.

1974 1974

8.0 12.1

-1.1 3.2

7.6

17.2

12.0

25.9

18.2 4.0

1ST QTR. 2ND OTR.

1975 1975

9.4 9.8

0.2 11.4

20.4 23.5

-2.2 -25.4

-7.3 12.2

1.0 6.0

2.4 1.7

10.9 10.6

31.8 15.2

19.1 10.8

20.8 -9.4

-3.3 2.0

-20.2 8.1

25.6 -34.2

OUARTERLY-AV: 3AD OTR. 4TH QTR.

1974 1974

6.8 11.6

1ST OTR. 2ND QTR.

1975 1975

8.9 9.3

-1.7 8.9

17.6 22.5

19.2 -24.0

1974--AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

13.0 7.3 10.9 16.2 8.9

-3.3 -1.1 2.2 5.6 1.7

9.1 9.1 9.0 13.4 13.2

2.9 14.3 19.8 -9.7 67.4

14.4 12.2 24.1 -2.0 -9.9

31.8 19.7 2.8 -55.3 -52.2

1975--JAN. FEB MAR APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. P

5.3 10.6 12.2 1.7

-13.9 3.9 10.6 5.0 10.5 18.6 1.1 3.2

17.5 17.2 25.4 20.8 20.4 28.1 23.5 26.9

31.9 -7.8 -30.0 -18.7 -39.4 -19.6 -2805 -59.9

15.9 -15.7 -21.9 20.3 0.0 15.9 9.8 7.8

-15.2 6.1 12*2 9.1 6.0 3.0 0.0 3.0

MONTHLY:

NOTES:

12.1 15.4 8.4 8.4

RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY.

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

SEPT.

12,

1975

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Perod

Currency

Demand

Total

Tome

STTime Other

____Depos

Mutual Savings Bank

Credit Union

CD's

and S Shares

Non

Securities

Shares,_

Shrt Svr

dposit

US Gov't

Funs

ANNUALLVY 1972 1973

56.9 61.6

198.9 209.9

313.8 364.5

269.9 300.7

297.5 322.8

21.6 24.6

43.9 63.8

57.0 59.9

39.8 52.1

27.6 38.3

4.3 6.6

5.6 3.9

65.5 65.9

215.0 214.8

405.2 407.5

321.5 322.7

134.2 335.0

26.5 26.7

83.8 84.8

61.7 62.0

59.1 59.7

42.6 43.3

9.0 8.6

6.2 6.3

OCT. NOV. DEC.

66.5 67.4 67.9

215.2 216.2 216.5

412.1 413.5 419.3

325.9 328.0 329.1

336.2 338.2 340.8

26.9 27.2 27.5

86.2 85.5 90.3

62.3 62.6 62.8

60.9 60.8 60.3

43.4 41.4 39.6

7.9 7.6 8.4

3.7 4.6 1.9

1975--JAN. FER. MAR.

68.2 68.7 69.4

213.4 213.7 215.6

426.0 428.8 429.9

333.2 336.7 340.1

343.6 346.9 352.0

27.9 28.3 28.9

92.7 92.1 89.8

63.2 63.5 63.8

61.1 60.3 59.2

39.1 39.3 39.7

7.6 6.5 6.5

0.7 0.6 0.7

APR. MAY JUNE

69.5 70.2 71.1

216.3 218.3 721.9

431.5 432.9 437.1

343.1 347.4 353.1

357.4 362.5 368.6

29.4 29.9 30.6

88.4 85.5 84.1

64.1 64.4 64.7

60.2 60.2 61.0

40.0 40.2 40.3

6.7 7.4 7.0

2.1 2.1 3.8

JULY AUG. P

71.3 71.9

222.1 222.6

439.1 437.4

357.0 359.4

374.4 378.9

31.2 31.9

82.1 78.0

65.1 65.5

61.5 61.9

40.3 40*4

6.8 7.0

2.5 2.9

9 16 23 30

71.5 71.3 71.4 71.4

221.1 223.0 222.6 220.9

439.5 439.9 439.3 438.6

355.9 357.0 357.7 358.2

83.6 82.9 81.6 80.5

6.5 6.6 7.0

2.9 2.9 2.5 2.0

6 13 20 27P

71.8 71.9 71.8 72.0

222.8 221.2 222.1 223.9

437.8 438.0 437.3 436.5

358.4 359.3 359.3 359.5

79.4 78.7 77.9 77.0

6.8 6.8 7.1 7.3

2.7 2.5 2.7 3.1

72.0

223.2

437.8

360.8

77.1

7.2

3.6

0INTHLYr 1974--AUG. SEPT.

WEEKLY: 1975--JULY

AUG.

SEPT.

7.0

Appendix Table III

Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) (Revised Series)

3.4

6.8

7.3

9.1

8.8

10.4

11.3

7.3

10.6

8.6

10.5

9.1

III

0.6

5.5

5.6

7.8

5.2

7.5

8.7

5.0

10.8

8.9

9.8

7.9

QIV '72-QIV '73

6.1

6.3

8.8

8.9

8.8

9.0

1974

5.5

5.8

9.3

9.6

8.9

9.1

7.0

7.3

7.9

8.3

6.8

7.6

III

1.0

3.5

4.2

6.0

3.8

5.2

5.3

3.9

6.7

6.2

6.9

5.8

QIV '73-QIV '74

4.8

5.2

7.2

7.7

6.8

7.1

2.4

-0.3

8.4

5.8

10.4

7.8

11.0

8.6

13.3

11.2

15.6

1973

1975

13.7

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

Appendix Table IV Impact of Benchmark Revisions on Money Stock Growth Rates (Seasonally adjusted, per cent annual rates)

Old Quarterly:

M2 Revised

Old

Revised

Old

Revised

end-of-quarter to end-of-quarter

1975 I

2.4 11.0

10.4 15.6

9.9 15.6

5.8

8.3

11.2

13.8

7.8 13.7

6.5 10.5 14.0

5.6 9.9 13.9

11.9 14.7 19.6 12.4

11.7 14.9 19.7 12.5

0.8 11.2

8.4 13.3

7.6 13.4

-0.3 8.6

6.4 11.3

Quarterly average: 1975 I II

Monthly 1975 Jan.

Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug.

-9.3 5.5 11.0 4.2 10.9 17.8 2.0 4.5

-11.8 3.4 11.0 3.4 11.3 18.7 2.0 4.1

3.9 9.4 11.8 7.7 13.1 18.8 8.2 6.4

2.5 8.4 11.6 7.3

13.4 19.2 8.2 6.3

9.9

9.8

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1975, September 15). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19750916

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19750916,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1975},
  month = {Sep},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19750916},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}