bluebooks · October 20, 1975

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing).

A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Content last modified 6/05/2009.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

October 17, 1975

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC

October 17, 1975 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Recent developments (1) M1 grew at about a 2 per cent annual rate in September, and further weakness in recent data now suggest some net contraction for October. As a result M1 is projected to decline slightly on average over the two-month target period--falling substantially below the lower end of the Committee's range of tolerance, as shown in the table.

The weakness in M1 and a further

slowing of growth in consumer-type time deposits in September have reduced the expected two-month growth rate for M2 to a 4.3 per cent annual rate, also well below its range of tolerance. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over September-October Period Reserve and monetary aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent)

Ranges of Tolerance

Latest Estimates

5 to 8

-0.4

7 to 9k

4.3

RPD

Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

-2.1

1 to 4

Avg. for statement

53 to 7-

week ending

Sept. 17

6.28

24 1 8 15

6.29 6.36 6.06 5.82

Oct.

A majority of the Committee members concurred in the Chairman's recommendation of October 2 to reduce the lower end of the funds rate range from 6 to 5¾ per cent.

-2(2) Business loans at banks and commercial paper issued by nonfinancial corporations both declined in September, as high corporate liquidity reduced the need for external financing. Even so, the outstanding volume of large negotiable bank CD's expanded appreciably for the first time since January.

This unexpected CD growth was concentrated among a few money

center banks and seems to have represented an effort to improve their liquidity positions in preparation for possible adverse market reactions stemming from the continuing financial problems of New York and recent publicity highlighting loan losses at banks.

As a result of the CD expansion, and of a larger than

projected rise in Government deposits, the bank credit proxy appears to be expanding at about a 5

per cent annual rate in the September-October period.

(3) In the initial statement week after the September FOMC meeting, the Desk sought reserve conditions consistent with a Federal funds rate trading in a 6¼-6½ per cent range.

On October 2, incoming data suggested

that growth in the monetary aggregates was running below the Committee's ranges of tolerance, and conditions in the municipal market were becoming increasingly unsettled.

Accordingly, the Chairman recommended and the

Committee concurred in a strategy calling for the Manager to lower the Federal funds rate to 6-1/8 per cent immediately, and then to reduce it further over the following few days to 6 per cent.

The Committee also agreed to reduce

the lower limit of its funds rate constraint to 5¾ per cent, in order to provide leeway for further reserve provision in the event that signs of continuing weakness in the monetary aggregates were confirmed by additional data.

In the statement week ending October 8, the funds rate averaged

-36.06 per cent.

Since then--with additional data confirming weakness in the

aggregates--the rate has averaged around 5.80 per cent.

On October 15,

the Board of Governors announced a cut in reserve requirements on longermaturity time deposits--which had the effect of releasing about $350 million of reserves to banks in the week beginning October 30. (4) early October

Short-term interest rates have declined significantly since in response to the evidence of weaker growth in the monetary

aggregates, the decline in the Federal funds rate, and the cut in bank reserve requirements.

As a result, most short-term rates are now 40 to 70

basis points below the levels that prevailed at the time of the September FOMC meeting.

The 3-month Treasury bill has traded most recently at around

5.90 per cent, its lowest level since late June. (5)

Recent declines in short rates have contributed to a general

strengthening of markets for longer-term securities as well.

Yield reductions

have been largest on Treasury notes and bonds--ranging to as much as 50 basis points.

In the municipal market, developments surrounding the New York

financial crisis have continued to dominate.

The atmosphere has improved

somewhat in response to the general easing in market conditions.

October 17, New York City managed to roll over its debt maturities, but there is still no demand for such issues from the general public. (6)

Combined deposit growth at savings and loan associations

and mutual savings banks slowed to an annual rate of 11½ per cent during September.

At S&L's the slower deposit flows, taken in conjunction with

the large volume of new mortgage commitments made during August, reportedly

-4led to more cautious lending policies in September.

This is suggested by

recent data which show no further increase in commitments for September and an increase of 10-15 basis points in the average interest rate on conventional mortgages over the past five weeks. (7)

The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual

rates of change) selected periods.

monetary and financial flows over various time

Calendar Year 1974

Twelve -_Months Sept.'75 over

Past Six Months Sept.'75 over

Past Three Months Sept.'75 over

Past Month Sept.'75 over

Sept.'74 Mar. '75 June '75 Aug, '75 Total reserves Nonborrowed reserves

8.5

-1.4

-0.5

-2.2

4.0

10.7

7.5

-2.1

-4.1

-2.4

8.9

-1.5

-1.0

-2.5

Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits

0.7

Concepts of Money M

(currency plus demand

deposits) I/

4.8

5.0

6.8

2.3

2.0

7.2

8.8

10.0

6.4

5.0

6.8

11.0

12.9

9.8

7.4

M4 (M2 plus CD's)

10.6

6.9

5.8

3.0

6.2

M5 (M3 plus CD's)

9.0

9.5

9.9

7.3

8.1

(bank credit proxy adj,)

10.2

3.4

3.1

-1.3

6.9

Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/

9.2

2.6

3.6

4.8

2.2

-.5

-1.8

-1.7

1.1

-. 3

-. 1

-1.0

M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions)

Bank Credit

Total member bank deposits

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's

Nonbank commercial

aper

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. Based on month-end figures. 2/ of daily figures, except for data on total on averages based are NOTE: All items institucommercial paper, and thrift banks, of commercial loans and investments last Wednesday-of-month or end-of-month either tions--which are derived from figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are

adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (8)

Shown below for Committee consideration are alternative The one-year

longer-run growth ranges in the monetary aggregates.

span has been moved forward one quarter to cover the period from the third quarter of 1975 to the third quarter of 1976.

The FOMC's current

longer-run growth ranges for the period between the second quarters of

1975 and 1976 are also shown for comparative purposes. 1/ Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

6-84

5-7h

4-64

5-74

6-10

6-8

4t-64

8%-10k

8-10

6k-84

5-7

10-12

4-7

2t-51

64-94

Bank credit proxy (9)

5-8

Current

Of the longer-run alternatives, B encompasses the same

growth range as adopted in June for Ml.

Growth rates for M2 and M3 are

lower, however, because slower growth in time and savings deposits is now anticipated, given recent experience and the expectation that market interest rates will again be under upward pressure late this year and early next year.

Since M 1 grew at a 6.9 per cent annual rate from the second to third quarters of 1975, the new proposed long-run rates of growth are calculated from a base level that incorporates a rate of expansion slightly above the mid-point of the Committee's current longer-run range. While achievement of a 6¼ per cent growth rate over the next four quarters would not include any adjustment for the higher rate of expansion in the third quarter, the problem in this instance would not appear to be of any real quantitative significance. For example, under alternative B the implied growth rate from QII '75 to QII '76 for M (the Committee's previous target period) would be no more than about 6.4 per cent--well within the Committee's range.

-7(10)

Shorter-run alternatives for monetary aggregates and the

Federal funds rate are summarized below Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Ranges of tolerance for October-November

3h to 5h

3 to 5

2 to 4

6 to 8

5 to 7

45 to 6

RPD

1h to 3

0 to 2

5 to 6

5% to 6k

Federal funds rate (intermeeting range)

-1 to 5% to 63

These alternatives can be viewed as first stages that are loosely related to attainment of the corresponding longer-run growth paths.

Appendix Table IV

shows quarterly average Federal funds rates that the staff currently believes

likely to evolve over the next four quarters in attaining longer-run monetary objectives.

In general, all the alternatives involve rising Federal funds

rates as the period progresses, given the continued expansion projected for GNP. (11)

The staff still believes that growth in M 1 will soon resume.

We are now projecting growth over the latter part of October and continuing through winter, in view of the strong further expansion in nominal GNP, and hence in transactions needs for money, forecast by the staff.

Since the early

October level of M1 is so low, however, this growth would not be reflected in the monthly averages until November.

Given current money market conditions,

as under alternative B, the staff expects M 1 to expand at more than a 10 per cent annual rate in November.

But since the level of M1 is expected to decline,

-7aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

294.7 293.9 296.1

656,4 658.6 664.8

656,4

656.4

658,4 663.4

658.2 662.3

1070.8 1076.4 1085.0

1070.8 1076.0 1082.8

1070.8 1075.5 1080.9

1975 September October November

294.7 294.1 296.9

294.7 294.0 296.6

1975 QIII

294.1 296.8

294.1 296.4

294.1 296.0

653.5 664.6

653.5 663.4

653.5 662.2

1063.6 1084.9

1063.6 1082.8

1063.6 1080.8

303.5

302.2 307.5 312.2

300.9

680,0 695.5 710.7

676.6 688.8 700.1

673.1 682.7 690.1

1110.1 1135.2 1159.3

1103.1 1124.0 1142.6

1097.3 1112.9 1125.0

QIv 1976 QI QII

QIII

310.1 316.1

305.3 308.5

Growth Rates Monthly: 1975 October November

-2.4 11.4

-2.9 10.6

-3.3

9.0

4.0 11.3

3.7 9.1

3.3 7.5

6.3 9.6

5.8 7.6

5.5 5.8

7.2 7.7 7.4 6.6

6.5 6.1 5.7 4.3

Quarterly Average: 3.7 9.0 8.7 7.7

3.1 7.8 7.0 6.1

2.6 6.6 5.8 4.2

6.8 9.3 9.1 8.7

6.1 8,0 7.2 6.6

5.3 6.6 5.7 4.3

8.0 9.3 9.0 8.5

QIII '75-QI '76 QI '76-QIII '76

6.4 8.3

5.5 6.6

4.6 5.1

8.1 9.0

7.1 6.9

6.0 5.1

8.7 8.9

QIII '75-QIII '76

7,5

6.2

4.9

8.8

7.1

5,6

9.0

1975 QIV 1976 QI QII

QIII

6.3 5.0 7,4

5.8

-7b-

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy

M4 Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

735.5 740.6

735.5 740.3

735.5 740.2

1149.9 1158.3

1149.9 1157.9

1149.9 1157.6

505.9 507.8

505.9 507.6

746.8

745.5

744.6

1166.9

1164.8

1163.1

511.7

510.8

510.3

1975 QIII QIV

733.3 746.7

733.3 745.6

733.3 744.6

1143.4 1166.9

1143.4 1165.0

1143.4 1163.1

504.7 511.2

504.7 510.5

504.7 509.9

1976 QI

763.6

760.7

757.5

1193.7

1187.8

1181.7

521.8

519.9

517.8

780.6 797.3

774.8 788.3

769.3 779.5

1220.4 1245.9

1210.1 1230.8

1199.6 1214.4

529.5 537.1

525.9 531.5

522.3 525.9

1975 September October November

QII QIII Growth Rates Monthly:

8.3

7.8

7.7

8.8

8.3

8.0

4.5

4.0

10.0

8.4

7.1

8.9

7.2

5.7

9.2

7.6

6.4

1975 QIV 1976 QI QII QIII

7.3 9.1 8.9 8.6

6.7 8.1 7.4 7.0

6.2 6.9 6.2 5.3

8.2 9.2 8.9 8.4

7.6 7.8 7.5 6.8

6.9 6.4 6.1 4.9

5.2 8.3 5.9 5.7

4.6 7.4 4.6 4.3

4.1 6.2 3.5 2.8

QIII '75-QI '76

8.3

7.5

6.6

8.8

7.8

6.7

6.8

6.0

5.2

QI '76-QIII '76

8.8

7.3

5.8

8.7

7.2

5.5

5.9

4.5

3.1

QIII '75-QIII '76

8.7

7.5

6.3

9.0

7.6

6.2

6.4

5,3

4.2

1975 October

November Quarterly Averages:

-8on average, in October, the two month October-November growth rate would be relatively low--in a 3-5 per cent annual rate range under alternative B. (12)

Alternative B involves a Federal funds rate range centered

around the recently prevailing 5¾ per cent rate.

Yields in short- and

long-term markets (other than the mortgage market) have declined recently in response to the easing of the money market, and little further decline is likely in the period immediately ahead, assuming the funds rate remains around 5¾ per cent.

The 3-month bill is likely to trade around 6 per cent and 3-month

commercial paper may be around 6-3/8 per cent.

Bond yields could decline

somewhat further if there should be a breakthrough in resolving New York's financing problem or if the volume of corporate bond offerings drops further. However, the Treasury will announce its mid-November refunding on October 22. While the refunding is a small one--involving only about $2.4 billion of maturing publicly-held issues--the Treasury may offer mainly longer-term issues in the financing and is expected to raise a modest amount of new cash at the same time. (13)

Given at least maintenance of the recent lower level of market

rates, time deposit experience at banks and thrift institutions should improve somewhat as compared with the recent past.

However, over the longer-run, with

upward interest rate pressures still anticipated, the staff believes that institutional savings flows will come under renewed pressure, and we have assumed an increase in Regulation Q ceilings in the first quarter of next year.

-9(14)

A slight easing of the money market, as is contemplated by

the mid-point of the 5-6 per cent Federal funds rate range shown for alternative A, might be accompanied by some further declines in market interest rates.

These declines probably would not be particularly large

since many market participants may still expect rates to turn around later. Such an expectation would be reinforced to the extent that incoming business news continues to be good.

A larger decline in the funds rate to around

the 5 per cent bottom of the alternative A range would of course trigger more substantial interest rate declines as the market's assessment of future monetary policy and possibly also the business outlook changes. (15)

The staff expects that interest rate declines under

alternative A would facilitate attainment of higher longer-run growth rates for the monetary aggregates--typified by M1 growth over the next year in a 6-8

per cent range.

The effect on money demands of these initial declines

in interest rates are likely to be quite substantial, however, especially when considered in conjunction with expansion over the longer-run of transactions demands.

Thus, the Federal funds rate under this alternative

probably would have to begin rising again late in the year to keep money growth around the mid-point of the higher range. (16)

Alternative C involves a Federal funds rate range over the

next four weeks centered on 6

per cent.

This would return the rate to where

it was at about the time of the previous Committee meeting.

Such an immediate

rise in the funds rate appears most consistent with adoption by the Committee

-10-

of lower longer-run rates of growth in the monetary aggregates, indexed by M1 expansion over the year ahead in a 4-6½ per cent range.

Also such a rise in the funds rate would not be inconsistent

with the longer-run growth rates of alternative B.

An immediate increase in

the funds rate would retard money growth over the near term, but would imply somewhat less of a rise in the Federal funds rate over the next year than shown for alternative B in appendix Table IV. (17)

A rebound in the funds rate to around 6

per cent would

exert significant general upward pressure on interest rates, since it would be contrary to current market expectations.

Yields on Treasury securities

would probably be particularly affected given the imminent quarterly Treasury refunding and the continuing sizable volume of Federal deficit financing. these circumstances, savings inflows to depositary institutions could, of course, be expected to deteriorate.

-11Proposed directive (18)

Presented below are three alternative formulations for

the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section.

No reference to the forthcoming Treasury financing

is proposed because the quarterly financing to be announced on October 22 is relatively small and because Treasury financings have been and for some time will continue to be frequent. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: moderate] SUBSTANTIAL growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: moderate]MODEST growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead.

CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II-FOMC 10/17/75

CHART 1

RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

~134

for Sept -Oct

(10/15/75)

I A

i 0

1975

I I I M

J 1974

I I I S

I D

J 1975

RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios

CHART 2

CONNFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASSII-FOMC 10/17/75

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY Ml

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-300

280

260

1974

1975

0 1975

CHART 3

10/17/75

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-520

500

- 00

nzon

480

BILLIONS OF DOI .LARS

TOTAL

\\-

-- "

1974 1975 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove dlscontinuiltes associated wtih changes in reserve requirement ratios

8/15/75

CHART 4

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES EY MARKET CONDIT IONS LY AGES

INTEREST RATES Long-term

PERCENT

PER CENT 14

WEEKLY

FHA MORTGAGES

- FNMA MONDAY AUCTION

FEDERAL FUINDS

- 10

11 NEW ISSUE

FR DISCOUNT RATE

GOVT BONDS

10 YEAR AVERAGES

RESERVES

MUNICIPAL BOND BUYER

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 4

THURSDAYS

- 7

1974

1975

1974

1975

1974 1874

1975 1975

PER CENT

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 1

BANK RESERVES

OC,. 17, 1075

(ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) AVAILABLE RESERVES RESERVES AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE

Period

NONBANK DEPOSITS NSA SA oA I N oA

REQUIRED RESERVES

AGGREGATE RESERVES FOR

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

PRIVATE

Total Reserves

Nonborrowed Reserves

Total Required

Private Demand

Gov't. and CD's and Other Time Nondeposits Interbank Deposits ___

1 MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1975--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT.

32,938 329769 32,787 (32,657)

32,812 32,521 32,602 (32,559)

34,991 34,567 34,682 (34,589)

34,690 34,355 34.286 (34.413)

34,803 34.371 34,490 (34,425)

19,847 19,796 19,870 (19,611)

8,613 8.699 8,747 ( 8,743)

(

4,290 4,079 3,978 4,140)

2,053 1,798 1,895 ( 1,932)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD OTR.

-4.7 0.5 -2.5

-8.3 1.2 -2.2

-1.4 -0.2 -4.1

-7.7 1.2 -2.1

-4.2 11.7 1.4

-7.1 -9.2 3.8

-1.4 -2.5 -1.1

-0.9 -3.7 -0.8

11.5 -2.8 -2.7

-0.7 -3.6 -1.0

-3.3 8.0 5.7

-0.1 -12.0 -1.8

1.6 -11.6 -2.4 S4.4)

4.6 -14.9 4.2 -2.3)

QUARTERLY-AV 1975--1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD OTR. MONTHLY 1975--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. SEPT.-OCT.

(

-2.1 -6.2 0.7 -4.8)

4.1 -14.5 4.0 -3.2) (

-2.1)

(

0.4)

S 1.0)

(

S0.9)

2.9 -3.1 4.5 (-15.6) S-5.6)

( f

-7.2 12.0 6.6 -0.5) 3.0)

WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1975--AUGo

SEPT.

OCT.

6 13 20 27

32,885 32,563 32,853 32,755

32,617 32,262 32,633 32,548

34,751 34,331 34,687

3 10 17 24

32,833 32,602 32,833 32,628

32,590

33,111 32,488 32,760

15 NOTE:

34,505

34,571 34.152 34,483 34,233

34,552 34.315 34,476 34,209

19,857 19,749 19,890 19,688

8.653 8,677 8,696 8,745

4,176 4,121 4,057 4,026

1,867 1,768 1,834 1,751

32,587 32.509

34,598 34,294 34,616 34,641

34,376 33,909 34,289 34,246

34,297 34,300 34,349 34,608

19,811 19,936 19.835 19.856

8,730 732 8r 8.772 8.748

3,991 3,939 3,960 3,992

1,765 1,692 1,783 2,013

33,279 32,216 32,600

35,303 34,400 34.602

34,722 34,162 34,430

34,837 34,385 34.358

19,879 19,655 19,655

8,745 8,748 8,736

4,021 4,070 4.126

2,192 1,912 1,842

32,134

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. DATA SHOWN IN PARANTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF SEPT. 16, 1975 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPO RANGE OF 1.0 TO 4.0 PERCENT FOR THE SEPT.-OCT. PERIOD.

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS ]I-FOMC

Table 2

MONETARY AGGREGATES

OCT.

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad (M2) (Ml)

Period

U.S Govt Deposits

1 MONTHLY

Adlusted Credit Proxy

TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other CD's Than CD's Total

Nondeposit Sources of Funds

LEVELS-$BILLIONS 1975--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT.

PERCENT ANNUAL

293.5 294.2 294.7 (294.0)

650.5 653.7 656.4 (658.4)

505.3 503.0 505*9 (507.6)

2.5 2.9 3.0 3.4)

439.1 437.4 440.7 (446.3)

357.0 359.4 361*7 (364.4)

82.1 78.0 79.1 1 81.9)

(

6.8 7.0 7.0 7.3)

GROWTH

QUARTERLY 1975--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR.

0.8 11.2 2.3

7.6 13.4 6.4

3.1 7.5 -1.3

10.1 6.7 3.3

13.4 15.3 9.7

-2.2 -25.4 -23.8

-0.3 8.6 6.9

5.8 11.2 10.4

4.1 5.2 1.4

12.7 5.2 4.9

11.0 13.3 13.2

19.2 -24.0 -29.3

(

5.5 -4.6 9.1 15.2)

(

13.3 8.1 7.7 9.0)

-28.5 -59.9 16.9 42.5)

(

12.2)

(

8.3)

(

30.0)

QUARTERLY-AV 1975--15T QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. MONTHLY 1975--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. SEPT.-OCT. WEEKLY

(

2.0 2.9 2.0 -2.9)

(

-0.4)

(

8.2 5.9 5.0 3.7)

(

-5.2 -5.5 6.9 4.0)

(

4.3)

(

5.5)

LEVELS-SBILLIONS 1975--AUG.

6 13 20 27

294.6 293.1 293.9 295.9

653.0 652.5 653.2 655.5

503.8 502.7 503.1 504.0

2.7 2.5 2.7 3.1

437.8 438.0 437.3 436.5

358.4 359.4 359.3 359.6

79.4 78.7 77.9 77.0

6.8 6.8 7.1 7.3

SEPT.

3 16 17 24

295.4 295.5 295.4 293.5

656.0 656.5 656.8 654.8

504.0 566.4 506.2 505.3

3.6 4.2 4.0 2.9

437.7 439.1 440.0 441.0

360.6 361.0 361.3 361.3

77.1 78.1 78.7 79.7

7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0

293.7 292.8

655.8 655.5

505.3 506.9

1.9 3.0

443.0 444.4

362.1 362.7

80.9 81.7

7.1 7.5

OCT.

1 8 P

NOTE:

DATA

SHOWN

PARENTHESES

ARE CURRENT

PROJECTIONS.

PRELIMINARY

1975

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II- FOMC OCTOBER 17, 1975 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECT OF

OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted)

Bills & Accept. (1) 112

Period 1975--Mar.

Open Market Operations 1/ Agency RP's Coupon Issues Issues Net (3) (4) (2) 1,301 207 -1,758

Total (5)

A In Reserve Categories Daily Average Reserve Effects 2/ Other 4/ Req. res. against available res.5/ Member Open Market A Operations Bank Borrowing Factors V.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8J-(9) (10) (9) (8) (7) (6)

ATarget available reserves 51 (11)

-136

-41

-773

-774

-495

412 -734 580

495 -170 215

-456 -48 113p

-325 -45 10

Apr. May June

1,319 197 -413

1,070 50 958

-2 -97 -6

5,442 -3,357 -1,855

7,829 -3,207 -1,317

2,229 5,064 -3,165

4 -50 211

-1,767 -5,747 3,438

54 1 -96

July Aug. Sept.

-2,302 -371 1,932

-274 822

-2 313 393

-623 1,007 2,008

-2,926 1,222 5,155

-832 -1,332 2,458

-10 -50 186

553 1,210 -2,432p

167 -124 99p

Oct.

265

Nov. 1975--Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

6 13 20 27

-382 -573 5 321

966* -566* -399* --

---313

-3,822 2,488 3,067 -2,632

-3,238** 1,349** 2,673** -1,998

-1,154** -1,521** 1,865** 575

-73 -2 26 68

781 1,134 -1,425 -802

-37 36 95 -73

409 -425 371 -86

3 10 17

-113 -223 309

273 -456

-1 -1 --

2,225 -3,833 -794

2,384 -4,057 -29

747 -1,857 678

-50 163 -58

-638 1,263 -166

17 25 1

42 -456 453

1,427

367

6,512

8,306

3,399

-3,402

143

435

394

-1,092

-263

2,798

186

8 15

-240 -932

-5,806 1,548

-b,047 616

-2,763 -1,935

-343 - 65

-2,161p 2

,009p 2,297p

67 p - 35p -87p

56p

-1,062p 384p

22 29 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/

Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. Represents change in daily average level for preceeding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for September and October reflects the target adopted at the September 16, 1975 POMC meeting. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. * Special certificate (Direct Treasury borrowing from F.R.) ** Reflects special certificate purchase. P - Preliminary.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II--FOMC TABLE

OCTOBER 17,

1975

NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted)

Treasury Coupons Period

1972 1973 1974

INet Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ -

Within L-year

1 - 5

Federal Agencies

5 - 10

Over 10

1,582 1,415 1,747

490

1975--Qtr. I Qtr. II Qtr. III

-2,093 1,086 -757

1975--Apr. May June

July Aug. Sept. 1975--Aug.

945 43

1,295 143 352

369

1,917 -

Sept.3 10 17 24

116

200

1 8 15 22

33 218 13

1 - 5

5 - 10

RP Net Nt

168 101 318

1,059 864 3,082

1,631 9,273 6,303

-1,358 -

46 154

2,620 1,402

986 238

118 215

62 131

73 45

302 492

195 138

726 371

165 130

117 53

1,203 691

1,054 1,135 712

625 454 201

312 273 171

2,024 2,079 1,096

169

285 ----2 106

584

508

-2

3,076

747

1,060

53 230 2,392

-2

--- -2 --

2,387 150 539

5,442 -3,357 -1,855

-2,304 ----

514 ----

1,070 50 958

274 822

41 23

229 285 S

49 57

34 29

S-

229 S

309 1,396 413 -239 -926

Total

Outright Holdings Total 5/

253 244 659

373 565

312

Over 10

592 400 1,665

-2,305

6 13 20 27

Oct.

Total

Within 1-year

Net Change

Purchases 4/

Net

7,232 1,280

1974--Qtr. III Qtr. IV

' I

Purchases

S S

285 --

353 394

353

-- -

-3,822 2,488 3,067 -2,632

584 --1,138

394 --

394

634

623

1,007 2,008

216 3,148

159 223 765 1,794

2,225 -3,833

829

-1,092 -5,806 1,548

----240

-932

794

6,512

Change from end-of-per iod to end-of-perLod. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes maturity shifts, o rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowi gs from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC

OCTOBER 17, 1975 TABLE 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars)

U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Bills

Coupon Issues

Member Bank Reserve Positions

Dealer Positions

Corporate

Municipal

Excess**

Borrowing at FRB**

Bonds

Reserves

Total

(6)

1974--High Low

(1) 3,678 -289

(2) 2,203 -309

(3) 253 0

(4) 384 27

(5) 577 -168

3,906 647

1975--High Low

*7,029 1,586

2,845 253

464 0

389 48

466 -50

871 18

Seasonal

Basic Reserve Deficit 8 New York

(8)

(7) 176 13 74p 5

38 Others

(9)

-7,870 -2,447

-12,826 - 6,046

-7,387 -1,757

-11,390 - 8,070

2,309

552

180

3,282

139

-4,235

- 8,250

Oct. Nov. Dec.

2,174 2,900 2,985

654 1,608 1.836

25 83 175

166 268 149

197 205 258

1,813 1,252 727

117 67 32

-4,602 -6,322 -5,960

- 8,689 - 9,715 -10,169

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar.

2,501 3,329 3,143

2,050 2,121 2,521

97 144 307

79 166 195

147 198 195

398 147 96

14 11 7

-5,378 -6,318 -5,732

- 9,744 - 9,533 -10,302

Apr. May June

2,737 4,744 5,201

1,617 1,752 1,351

35 91 89

115 170 118

143 155 201

110 66 227

6 9 11

-4,079 -3,965 -5,821

-10,426 - 9,567 - 9,344

4,231 4,020 *5,008

1,246 1,204 *588

60 44 31

135 181 122

188 195 169p

259 211 358p

17 37 58

-5,546 -3,964 -3,551

- 9,896 - 9,966 - 9.015

6 13 20 27

3,958 4,007 4,045 4,618

1,995 1,150 769 1,152

96 33 4 0

138 215 207 155

199 16 211 296

180 179 204 272

29 35 35 40

-4,082 -4,988 -3,672 -3,313

- 9,547 -10,640 - 9,733 - 9,870

Sept. 3 10 17 24

4,294 5,070 5,384 *4,779

1,103 894 253 * 477

1 33 30 58

183 84 113 107

301 -6 267 33

222 385 327 395

51 54 61 64

-2,745 -4,884 -3,932 -3,190

- 9,391 -10,478 -10,094 - 8,393

1 8 15 22 29

*4,657 *5,812 *7,029

* 462 * 846 *1,576

466

58 1p 238p 173p

74p 74p 66 p

-2,575 6 -2,7 5p 3 43 - , 7p

- 7,2078 - 9,96 p -10,360p

1974--Sept.

July Aug. Sept. 1975--Aug.

Oct.

NOTE:

5 0 7p

142 154 82 p

p 15p 245p

Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) TABLE 6

CLASS II - FOMC

OCTOBER 17, 1975

SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent)

Short-Term

ILong-Term Aaa Utility Recently New Issue Offered (7) (8)

Municipal Bond Buyer (9)

U.S. Government (20-yr. Constant Maturity) (10)

FNMA Auctions Yields (11)

10.52 8.14

7.15 5.16

8.68 7.40

10.59 8.43

9.80 8.89

9.71 9.06

7.67 6.27

8.6j 7.63

9.95 8.78

11.38

10.38

10.30

6.76

8.60

10.58

9.35 8.78 9.00

9.33 8.72 8.84

10.16 9.21 9.53

10.23 9.34 9.56

6.57 6.61 7.05

8.37 7.99 7.91

10.22 9.87 9.53

7.39 6.36 6.06

7.43 6.00 5.88

6.40 5.91 5.86

6.11 5.70 5.67

5.85 5.44 5.34

7.45 6.25 6.03 6.03 5.63 5.51

9.36 8.97 9.35 9.67 9.63 9.20

9.45 9.09 9.38 9.66 9.65 9.33

6.82 6.39 6.74 6.94 6.97 6.94

7.88 7.71 7.99 8.36 8.22 8.04

9.25 8.93 8.82 9.06 9.27 9.09

6.13 6.44 6.42

6.64 7.16 7.20

6.32 6.59 6.79

6.05 6.31 6.44

6.25 6.63 6.81

9.42 9.45 9.68

9.43 9.49 9.57

7.06 7.17 7.44

8.17 8.50 8.57

9.14 9.41 9.78

6.09 6.08 6.15 6.23

6.37 6.41 6.44 6.52

6.99 7.15 7.23 7.26

6.50 6.58 6.63 6.63

6.38 6.25 6.25 6.38

6.50 6.63 6.63 6.75

9.44 9.43 9.53 9.49

9.51 9.49 9.54 9.50

7.16 7.17 7.18 7.18

8.49 8.50 8.53 8.48

3 10 17 24

6.06 6.15 6.28 6.29

6.40 6.39 6.48 6.36

7.08 7.06 7.31 7.21

6.69 6.75 6.80 6.83

6.38 6.38 6.50 6.50

6.75 6.88 6.88 6.75

9.64 9.68 9.70

9.41 9.50 9.61 9.70

7.34 7.40 7.49 7.54

8.47 8.61 8.63 8.52

1 8 15 22 29

6.36 6.06 5.82

6.47 6.32 6.13

7.26 6.88 6.61

6.80 6.83 6.53

6.50 6.38 6.13

7.00 6.75 6.38

9.72 9.60 9.5 3 p

9.70 9.56 9 51 . p

7.67 7.48 7.29

8.59 8.43 8.36p

5.87 5.7 9 p

6.22 5.97

6.76 6.46

6.63 6.38

Treasury Bills

CD's New Issue-NYC

Federal Funds (1)

90-day (2)

1-year (3)

190-119 Day Commercial Paper (4)

1974--High Low

13.55 8.45

9.63 6.53

9.54 6.39

12.25 7.88

12.25 8.00

12.00 7.88

10.61 8.05

1975--High Low

7.70 5.13

6.68 5.02

7.31 5.46

8.43 5.38

7.88 5.25

7.75 5.38

11.34

8.06

8.52

11.36

11.19

10.06 9.45 8.53

7.46 7.47 7.15

7.59 7.29 6.79

9.55 8.95 9.18

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar.

7.13 6.24 5.54

6.26 5.50 5.49

6.27 5.56 5.70

Apr. May June

5.49 5.22 5.55

5.61 5.23 5.34

July Aug. Sept.

6.10 6.14 6.24

Period

1974--Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

1975--Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Daily--oct. 9 16

60-89 Day (5)

90-119 Day (6)

p -

9.50

9.70 9.86

9.95

8.40 n.a. --

NOTE:

9.32

~-----

Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7,8, and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceeding the end of the statement week. The PNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages.

Preliminary.

APPENDIX TABLE 1-A

OCT. 17, 1975

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES RESERVES! Period

Total

Non-

Available to

Adl

Total Loans

borrowed

Support Pvt

Credit proxy

and Invest-

Deposits

ments

ANNUALLY: 1972 1973 1974

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

BANK CREDIT MEASURES

5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

10.8 7.9 8.5

7.5 7.3 10,7

10.1 9.Z 8.9

11.3 10.4 10.2

14.6 13.5 9.2

8.7 6.1 4.8

11.1 8.8 7.2

13.2 8.8 6.8

12.5 11.6 10.6

14.0 10.6 9.0

12.9 11.2 9.1

12.9 11.9 8.9

1ST HALF 1974 2NO HALF 1974

10.8 5.9

0.4 21.0

12.6 4.9

14.5 5.4

15.0 3.1

6.3 3.1

8.7 5.5

7.9 5.4

13.3 7.5

10.9 6.7

11.0 6.9

11.0 6.5

1ST HALF 1975

-3.6

-0.8

-2.1

5.3

SEMI-ANNUALLY:

3.4

10.6

13.0

7.5

10.7

10.1

9.9

5.3

6.7

6.9

9.0

8.4

8.1

6.5

6.0

QUARTERLY: 4TH QTR.

1974

3.6

36.0

0.8

4.2

1ST OTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD 0TR.

1975 1975 1975

-8.3 1.2 -2.2

-1.4 -0.2 -4.1

-4.7 0.5 -2.5

3.1 7.5 -1.3

4.3 2.3 4.8

0.8 11.2 2.3

7.6 13.4 6.4

9.9 15.7 9.8

6.3 8.6 3.0

8.8 12.3 7.3

7.9 12.0 7.0

7.6 11.9 6.6

1.4

27.3

2.5

3.5

0.2

3.9

6.2

5.8

7.3

6.6

6.8

6.2

5.8 11.2 10.4

7.8 13.8 13.1

7.4 6.6 5.7

8.8 10.6 9.9

8.0 9.9 9.5

7.0 9.9 9.2

3.0 8.4 7.9 3.7

3.0 7.1 5.9

4.4 9.8 5.7 11.4

4.0 8.0 6.2 10.8

4.4 8.8 5.8 9.4

5.0 8.5 3.6 7.3

2.5 8*4 11.6 7.3 13.4 19.2 8.2 5.9 5.0

5.6 9.9 13.9 11.7 14.9 19.8 12.2 9.4 7.4

6.7 6.1 6.1 4.2 7.0 14.3 4.1 -1.5 6.2

7.9 8.2 10.2 9.2 10.7 16.7 9.1 4.4 8.1

8.2 7.6 8.2 9.6 10.0 16.3 9.2 3.8 7.8

7.5 6.9

-1.0

OUARTERLY-AV: 4TH OTR. 1ST OTR. 2NZ OTR. 3RD OTR.

1974 1975 1975 1975

-0.9 -3.7 -0.8

11.5 -2.8 -2.7

-1.4 -2.5 -1.1

4.1 5.2 1.4

0.1 3.5 4.2

6.8 -3.1 -1.6 15.5

9.6 51.9 18.5 34.7

7.8 -1.5 -2.7 6.5

4.2 -0.2 5.2 7.6

-6.9 1.4 5.0 -9.4

7.9 -27.3 -5.5 8.3 -14.7 10.3 4.1 -14.5 4.0

19.4 -19.1 -4.1 8.1 -13.2 4.8 1.6 -11.6 -2.4

0.0

3.6 -0.2 5.8 5.1 2.4 15.1 -5.2 -5.5 6.9

3.5 2.8 6.7 2.4 3.8 0.9 5.3 6.8 2.2

-0.3 8.6 6.9

MONTHLY I 1974--SEPT. OCT. NOV. 6EC. 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APt. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. P

-8.6

-5.5 2.9 -10.3 9.1 -2.1 -6.2 0.7

___I _ ___

NOTES:

0.9 3.8 8.5 3.4 -11.8 3.4 11.0 3.4 11.3 18.7 2.0 2.9 2.0

7.7

RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, RASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE 1/ P - PRELIMINARY.

1969, AND REQUIREMENTS

ON BANK-RELATED

8.5

9.5 9.8 15.9 8.8 3.4 7.6

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

OCT.

17, 1975

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

Period

To ta

Non l

borrowed

Available to Support Pvt

proxy

Total Loans and

Invest.

ments 5

Adl Credit

Deposits 12

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

BANK CREDIT MEASURES

E RESERVES-

ANNUALLY: 1972 1973

30,327 32,711

29,278 31,413

28,039 30,610

406.4 448.7

559.0 634.6

255.8 271.5

525.7 572.2

844.9 919.6

569.7 636.0

888.8 983.4

985.5 1095.4

1013.1 1133.6

1974--SEPT.

35,187

31,904

33,278

489.2

695.2

280.7

603.4

965.0

688.2

1049.9

1171.5

1214.9

OCT.

35,097 35,050 35,503

33.284 33,798 34,776

33,236 33.160 33,341

488.3

696.0 697.4 691.9

281.6 283.6 284.4

607.6 611.6 613.5

970.7 976.9 981.7

693.8 697.1 703.7

1056.9 1062.4 1072.0

1180.1 1185.8 1195.1

1223.5 1227.2 1234.7

35,737 34,925 34,764

35,339 34,777 34,658

33,341 33,103 32,951

495.8 495.7

MAR.

693.9 695.5 699.4

281.6 282.4 285.0

614.8 619.1 625.1

986.3 994.4 1005.9

707.6 711.2 714.8

1079.1 1086.5 1095.7

1203.3 1210.3 1218.6

1242.4 1249.5 1258.3

APR. MAY JUNE

35,003 34,574 34,872

34,892 34,508 34,645

33,032 32,748 32,995

500.2

285.8 288.5 293.0

628.9 635.9

507.5

700.8 703.0 703.5

646.1

1015.7 1028.3 1045.3

717.3 721.5 730.1

1104.1 1113.9 1129.4

1228.3 1238.5 1255.3

1268.3 1278.7 1295.6

JULY AUG. SEPT, P

34,991 34,567 34,682

34,690 34,355 34,286

32,938 32,769 32,787

505.3 503.0 505.9

706.6 710.6 711.9

293.5 294.2 294.7

650.5 653.7 656.4

1055.9 1064.2 1070.8

732.6 731.7 735.5

1138.0 1142.2 1149.9

1264.9 1268.9 1277.2

1305.1 1308.8 1317.1

13 20 27

34,331 34,687 34,505

34,152 34,483 34,233

32,563

32,853 32,755

502.7 503.1 504.0

293.1 293.9 295.9

652.5 653.2 655*5

731.1 731.1 732.5

3 10 17 24

34,598 34,294 34,616 34,641

34,376 33,909 34,289 34,246

32,833 32,602 32,833 32,628

504.0 566.4 506.2 505.3

295.4 295.5 295.4 293.5

656.0 656.5 656.8 654.8

733.1 734.6 735.5 734.5

35,303 34,400

34,722 34,162

33.111 32,488

505.3 506.9

293.7 292.8

655.8 655.5

736.7 737.2

MONTHLY:

NOV. DEC. 1975--JAN. FEB

491.2

494.3

498.1

501.2

WEEKLYs 197S--AUG.

SEPT.

OCT.

1P 8P

LOANS SOLD TO BANKADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT 70 RESERVE REOUIREMENTS, MONTHLY WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS* RELATED INSTITUTIONS, WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MSi M6, M7t TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUDATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. TION DEPOSITS. ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY

NOTES:

1/ P -

OCT.

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

17,

1975

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Currency

Period

Demand Deme Deposts

Total Deposits

Time

Mutual

Other CD's

Savings Bank and S & L

C_^____ Ds

ANNUALLY:

Short Credit Union Shares

CD's

Savings

Bondsvt

Term

ICommercal Paper

Securities

Shares.

7 6 5 4 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

8.2 8.3 10.2

8.9 5.5 3.1

15.7 16.2 15.0

13.5 11.4 9.4

16.7 8.5

18.0 13.9 11.8 1.6

31.0 45.3 41.5

6.1 5.1 4,8

0.5 30.9 15.7

15.0 38.8 3.4

9.7 10.2

5.2 1.0

18.b 10.5

10.9 7.6

5.9 5.1

13.0 9.9

54.9 22.1

4.3 5.2

19.2 11.2

12.5 -5.4

1975

9.4

5.0

8.5

14.6

16.3

22.5

6.1

3.0

3.5

OTR.

1974

12.1

3.2

11.6

7.9

6.9

12.0

5.2

4.0

15T OTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD OTR.

1975 1975 1975

8.8 9.8 5.1

-1.7 11.7 1.6

10.1 6.7 3.3

13.4 15.3 9.7

13.1 18.9 15.5

20.4 23.5 11.8

6,4 5.6 6.8

-7.3 13.5

2.0

1,0 6.0 -4.0

8.2

4.9

10.6

15.2

5.8

10.8

-9.4

1972 1973 1974 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF 1974 2ND HALF 1974 IST HALF

-13.7

QUARTERLY: 4TH

25.9 -2.2 -25.4 -23.8

-34.2

OUARTERLY-AV, 9.7

4TH

QTR.

1974

11.6

1.7

1ST 2ND 3RD

OTR. QTR. QTR.

1975 1975 1975

8.9 8.7 8.5

-3.3 8.6 6.6

12.7 5.2 4.9

11.0 13.3 13.2

10.8 17.6 17.6

17.6 22.5 17.3

19.2 -24.0 -29.3

5.8 5.7 6.2

-3.3 2.0 6.6

-20.2 8.1 -2.0

1974--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

7.3 10.9 16.2 8.9

-1.1 2.2 5.6 1.7

6.8 13.5 4.1 16.8

4.5 11.9 7.7 4.0

2.9 4.3 7.1 9.2

9.1 9.0 13.4 13.2

14.3 19.8 -9.7 67.4

5.8 5.8 5.8 3.8

12.2 24.1 -2.0 -9.9

19.7 2.8 -55.3 -52.2

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT.

5.3 8.8 12.2 1.7 12.1 15.4 5.1 8.4 1.7

-17.2 1.7 10.7 3.9 11.1 19.8 1.1 1.1 2.7

19.2 7.9 3.1 4,5 3.9 11.6 5.5 -4.6 9.1

14.9 12.6 12.1 10.6 15.0 19.7 13.3 8.1 7.7

9.9 11.5 17.6 18.4 17.1 20.2 18.9 14.7 12.3

17.5 17.2 25.4 20.8 20.4 28.1 15.7 19.4 0.0

31.9 -7.8 -30.0 -18.7 -39.4 -19.6 -28.5 -59.9 16.9

7.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 7.4 5.5 7.3

15.9 -15.7 -21.9 20.3 0.0 19.9 11.8 -11.7 5.9

-15.2 6.1 12.2 9.1 6.0 .0 -3.0 -6.0 -3.0

MONTHLY:

NOTES:

RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 196c, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED 1970. COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF 1/ PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY.

OCT. APPENDIX TABLE 2-B Appendix Table 2-B COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES

Period

Currency

DemandTotal Deposits Time pnk Deposits 2

Time Other Than C's S 4

Mutual Savings

and

and S & L Shares 5

Short

Credit

Shares Unin

CD's

Bonds

U STerm Gov't Commercial Paper er Securtes

17, 1975

Non-

deposit

Gov't

Funds

Demand

1 6

ANNUALLY: 1972 1973

56.9 61.6

198.9 209.9

313.8 364.5

269.9 300.7

297.5 322.8

21.6 24.6

43.9 63.8

57.0 59.9

39.8 52.1

27.6 38.3

4.3 6.6

5.6 3.9

1974--SEPT.

65.9

214.8

407.5

322.7

335.0

26.7

84.8

62.0

59.7

43.3

8.6

6.3

OCT. NOV. DEC.

66.5 67.4 67.9

215.2 216.2 216.5

412.1 413.5 419.3

325.9 328.0 329.1

336.2 338*2 340.8

26.9 27.2 27.5

86.2 85.5 90.3

62.3 62.6 62.8

60.9 60.8 60.3

43.4 41.4 39.6

7.9 7.6 8.4

3.7 4.6 1.9

68.2 68.7 69.4

213.4 213.7 215.6

426.0 428.8 429.9

333.2 336.7 340.1

343.6 346.9 352.0

27.9 28.3 28.9

92.7 92.1 89.8

63.2 63.5 63.8

61.1 60.3 59.2

39.1 39.3 39.7

7.6 6.5 6.5

0.7 0.6 0.7

APR. MAY JUNE

69.5 70.2 71.1

216.3 218.3 221.9

431.5 432.9 437.1

343.1 347.4 353.1

357.4 362.5 368.6

29.4 29.9 30.6

88.4 85.5 84.1

64.1 64.4 64.7

60.2 60.2 61.2

40.0 40.2 40.3

6.7 7.4 7.0

2.1 2.1 3.8

JULY AUG. SEPT.

71.4 71.9 72.0

222.1 222.3 222.8

439.1 437.4 440.7

357.0 359.4 361.7

374.4 379.0 382.9

31.0 31.5 31.5

82.1 78.0 79.1

65.1 65.4 65.8

61.8 61.2 61.5

40.2 40.0 39.9

6.8 7.0 7.0

2.5 2.9 3.0

1975--AUG. 13 20 27

71.9 71.8 72.0

221.2 222.1 223.9

438.0 437.3 436.5

359.4 359.3 359.6

78.7 77.9 77.0

6.8 7.1 7.3

2.5 2.7 3.1

72.0 71.9 72.1 72.1

223.4 223.6 223.4 221.4

437.7 439.1 440.0 441.0

30.6 361.0 361.3 361.3

77*1 78.1 78.7 79.7

7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0

3*6 4.2 4.0 2.9

72.0 72.4

221.7 220.4

443.0 444.4

362.1 362.7

80.9 81.7

7.1 7.5

1.9 3.0

MONTHLY:

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR.

WEEKLY:

SEPT.

OCT.

NOTES:

3 10 17 24 IP 8P

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FUR STATEMENT WEEKSo MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA.

Appendix Table III

Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate)

Q 10.4

3.4

6.8

7.3

9.1

8.8

11.3

7.3

10.6

8.6

10.5

9.1

III

0.6

5.5

5.6

7.8

5.2

7.5

8.7

5.0

10.8

8.9

9.8

7.9

QIV '72-QIV '73

6.1

6.3

8.8

8.9

8.8

9.0

1974

5.5

5.8

9.3

9.6

8.9

9.1

7.0

7.3

7.9

8.3

6.8

7.6

III

1.0

3.5

4.2

6.0

3.8

5.2

5.3

3.9

6.7

6.2

6.9

5.8

QIV '73-QIV '74

4.8

5.2

7.2

7.7

6.8

7.1

1975

0.8

-0.3

7.6

5.8

9.9

7.8

11.2

8.6

13.4

11.2

6.9

6.4

10.4

1973

2.3

15.7

9.8

13.8 13.1

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

Appendix Table IV

Projected Federal Funds Rates Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1975

QIV

1976

QII

QIII

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1975, October 20). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19751021

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19751021,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1975},
  month = {Oct},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19751021},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}