bluebooks · November 17, 1975

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing).

A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Content last modified 6/05/2009.

Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC

November 14,

1975

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

November 14, 1975

CLASS I - FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M1 declined at about a 3 per cent annual rate in October, but data for early November are consistent with the staff forecast of a substantial rebound in the current month.

For the two-month target

period, M 1 is projected to expand at an annual rate of about 4 per cent, somewhat above the low end of the Committee's range of tolerance. With growth in consumer-type time deposits a little stronger than projected, M2 is expected to grow at about a 7½ per cent annual rate over the two-month target period--somewhat above the mid-point of its tolerance range. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over October-November Period Reserve and monetary aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent)

Ranges of Tolerance

Latest Estimates

3 to 7

4.1

5½ to 8½

7.7

0 to 4

2.1

RPD Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

5¼ to 6¼

Avg. for statement week ending Oct. 22 5.73 29 5.65 Nov. 5 5.17 12 5.24

-2(2) October.

There was some increase in total short-term business credit in

Outstanding business loans at banks expanded by a relatively sizable

amount, mainly at banks outside the major money market centers, but this was offset in part by another decline in commercial paper issued by nonfinancial corporations.

Outstanding bank CD's have shown little change since the

build-up that occurred in

late September and early October.

While this

mainly reflected the continuing weakness in business loans at large banks, several New York City banks appear to have experienced some investor reluctance to acquire their CD's and did not aggressively seek such funds.

These banks

also relied less than they usually do on purchases of Federal funds during the past month and generally have lengthened the maturities of their managed liabilities. (3)

Immediately following the October FOMC meeting, the Desk

sought reserve conditions consistent with a Federal funds rate in a 5½ to 5¾ per cent range but with the expectation that the rate would be moved down to 5

per cent unless incoming data on the aggregates indicated more rapid

growth.

Data available shortly after the Committee meeting did in fact

suggest some strengthening in monetary growth causing the Desk to slow the movement to a 5½ per cent rate.

As a result, the funds rate averaged 5.65

per cent in the week ending October 29.

When subsequent data suggested a

considerable weakening in the aggregates, the Desk followed a more accommodative approach to reserve provision, and the funds rate moved to the

5¾ per cent lower limit of the Committee's range of tolerance.

As the

funds rate dropped increasingly below the discount rate, member bank borrowing

-3dwindled.

Although the latest data indicate a strengthening in the aggregates,

the Desk has continued to aim at a funds rate around 5

per cent in view

of the proximity of the November Committee meeting and the continuing uncertainties affecting financial markets. (4)

Short-term rates dropped another 20-50 basis points over the

intermeeting period, with the largest decline occuring in Treasury bill-rates. In longer-term markets yields have also declined somewhat further except on municipals.

Municipal yields which had declined in early October from the

peak reached at the turn of the month, advanced again in late October and Most recently, however, some of this advance has been erased

early November.

as the market has come to believe that a settlement of the New York problem is in the offing. (5)

Deposits at savings and loan associations and mutual savings

banks grew during October at an annual rate of around 11 the same as in September.

per cent, about

Given the sharp declines in market rates, managers

of thrift institutions reportedly have become more optimistic about the future course of deposit flows and therefore less cautious about extending new mortgage commitments.

Interest rates on primary mortgages have dropped

slightly; the Home Loan Bank series shows a decline in the average rate on new commitments for 80 per cent conventional mortgages from 9.25 to 9.17 per cent over the intermeeting period.

In the secondary market, average

yields in FNMA auctions dropped about 30 basis points. (6)

The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual

rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various time periods.

Calendar Year 1974

Twelve Months Oct. '75 over

Past Six Months Oct. '75 over

Past Three Months Oct. '75 ov er

Past Month Oct.'75 over

Oct. '74

Apr. '75

July '75

Sept.'75

8.5

-1.4

-2.2

-4.3

-2.1

10.7

3.5

-2.7

-3.0

5.2

8.9

-1.5

-1.9

-2.7

-2.6

4.8

4.4

5.7

0.7

-2.9

7.2

3.4

9.4

4.9

4.0

6.8

10.9

12.1

8.0

6.9

M4 (M2 plus CD's)

10.6

6.6

6.3

3.9

7.2

M5 (M3 plus CD's)

9.0

9.6

9.8

7.1

8.7

10.2

4.0

3.1

2.1

5.2

9.2

3.6

4.5

5.0

6.0

2.2

- .4

-1.2

2.2

Total reserves

Nonborrowed reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits Concepts of Money M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ plus time deposits 1 at commercial banks other than large CD's)

M2 (M

M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions)

Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's

Nonbank commercial paper .4 - .2 - .5 - .6 -1.1 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (7)

Summarized below for Committee consideration are three

alternative sets of short-run specifications for monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate.

All three alternatives are intended to be

consistent with the FOMC's longer-run objectives for the aggregates, as indexed by a 5-7½ per cent rate of growth in M1 from QIII '75 to QIII '76. Each of the alternatives, therefore,implies a different pattern of interest rate developments, as summarized in appendix table IV and as explained in the ensuing paragraphs. Alt. A

Alt. C

Alt. B

Ranges of tolerance for November-December M1

7-9

6½-8½

6-8

8½-10½

8-10

7½-9½

RPD

5½-7½

5-7

4½-6½

4¾-5¾

5¼-6¼

Federal funds rate (8)

4¼-5

Under alternative B the Federal funds rate range is

centered around the recently prevailing 5¼ per cent level.

is once

again expected to begin growing at a reasonably rapid rate; under this alternative growth over the two-month November-December period is estimated to be in a 6½-8½ per cent annual rate range.

The main basis

for this expectation is the growing need for transactions balances associated with the 14½ per cent annual rate of expansion in nominal GNP projected by the staff for the fourth quarter M1

growth in Nov.-Dec.

at an annual rate of 7½ per cent--the midpoint of the indicated range--would

-5a-

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1l

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1975 October November December

294.0 296.7 297.8

294.0 296.7 297.6

294.0 296.7 297.4

658.5 664.8 668.7

658.5 664.7 668.4

658.5 664.6 668,1

1076.9 1087.2 1095,2

1076.9 1087.1 1094.7

1076.9 1086.9 1094.2

1975 QIII QIV

294.1 296.2

294.1 296.1

653.5 664.0

653.5 663.9

653.5 663.7

1063.6 1086.4

1063.6 1086.2

1063.6 1086.0

1976 QI QII QIII

302.2 307.7 312.4

301.7 307.3 312.4

301.4 037.2 312.4

677.8 690.6 702.0

677.0 689.9 702.2

676.1 690.1 704.0

1111.2 1133.1 1152.7

1109.9 1132.2 1153.6

1108.7 1132.2 1156.1

11.0 4.4

11.0 3.6

1.0 2.8

11.5 7.0

11.3 6.7

11.1 6.3

11.5 8.8

11.4 8.4

11.1 8.1

1975 QIV QI QII QIII

2.9 8.2 7.3 6.1

2.7 7.6 7.4 6.6

2.7 7.2 7.7 6.8

6.4 C.3 7,6 .,

6.4 7.9 7.6 7.1

6.2 7.5 8.3 8.1

8.6 9.1 7.9 6.9

8.5 8.7 8.0 7.6

8.4 8.4 8.5 8.4

QIII '75-QI '76 QI '76-QIII '76

5.5 6.8

5.2 7.1

5.0 7.3

7,4 7.1

7.2 7.4

6.9 8.3

9.0 7.5

8.7 7.9

8.5 8.6

QIII '75-QIII '76

6.2

7.4

7.5

7.7

8.4

8.5

8.7

Growth Rates Monthly: 1975 November December Quarterly Average:

-5bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy IE

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1975 October November December

739.8 745.7

739.8

749.6

749.4

739.8 745.6 749,2

1158.1 1168.3 1176.1

1158.1 1168.1 1175.7

1158.1 1168.0 1175.3

508.0 511.7 512.9

508.0 511.6 512.8

508.0 511.6 512.7

1975 QIII QIV

733.2 745.0

733.2

733.2 744.9

1143.3 1167.5

1143.3 1167.3

1143.3 1167.1

504.7 510.9

504.7

745.0

510.8

504.7 510.8

1976 QI Q11 OII

759.2 773.3 787.0

758.6 773.1 787.6

758.0 772.9 788.2

1192.6 1237.7

1191.6 1215.4 1239.0

1190.6 1215.0 1240.3

517.2 523.4 528.5

516.9 523.3 529.0

516.6 523.1 529.0

9.6 6.3

9.6 6.0

10.6 8.0

10.4 7.8

1975 QIV 1976 QI QII QIII

6.4 7.6 7.4 7.1

6.4 7.3 7.6 7.5

6.4 7.0

QIII '75-QI '76 QI '76-QIlI '76

7.1 7.3

QIII '75-QIII '76

7.3

<^m,

745.7

1215.8

Growth Rates Monthly: 1975 November December

8.7 2.8

8.5 2.8

8.5

7.5

7.9

8.4 8.3 8.0 7.8

8.3 8.1 8.2 8.3

4.9 4.9 4.8 3.9

4.8 4.8 5.0 4.4

4.8 4.5 5.0 4.5

6.9 7.6

6.8 8.0

8.4 8.0

8.3 8.3

5.0 4.4

7.4

7.5

8.4

8.5

4.7

10.3

2.6

Quarterly Averages:

7.9

8.3

4.7 4.8 4.8

4.8

result in expansion from QIII '75 to QIV '75 at a rate of about 2¾ per cent, implying a rise in income velocity at about an 11 per cent annual rate between those quarters.

This would be an extremely large rise even for the early

stages of an economic recovery, particularly if, as assumed, it is not associated with upward interest rate pressures during the quarter. (8)

Such a large rise in velocity would not appear to be long

sustainable at current interest rate levels, given the reduction in the public's cash balances relative to income that has already occurred and given the continued, even though somewhat diminished, rate of expansion projected for nominal GNP in 1976.

With the demand for money likely to

continue to rise, the staff would expect the Federal funds rate to increase in the course of next year if the rate of growth in M1 is to average near the mid-point of the FOMC's longer-run target range of 5-7 summer, the funds rate might peak out at around 7½½er cent.

per cent.

This would be

lower than had been projected by the staff at the time of the last meeting. (9)

If the funds rate shows little change over the next few

weeks, the 3-month bill rate might be in a 5 -6 per cent range.

The rate

could show some tendency to rise from its recent trading level of about 5.40 per cent because the increase in short-term credit typical of the holiday season will coincide with continued sizable net additions to outstanding bills by the Treasury to raise new cash. Short-term rates will also be heavily influenced by developments with respect to New York.

resolution of the problem would affect attitudes and expectations in a manner likely to put upward pressure on rates, whereas a dashing of hopes would have the opposite effect.

-7-

(10)

With bond volume in the corporate and municipal markets

expected to be generally moderate, longer-term market interest rates are likely to show little further net change between now and year-end under the specifications of alternative B.

If the New

York situation is resolved

without default, yields in the municipal market could well show significant declines.

Primary mortgage market yields are likely to edge down over the

period ahead in lagged reaction to earlier declines in short-term interest rates and corporate bond yields, and in light of a continued relatively comfortable inflow of savings funds to thrift institutions. (11)

Both banks and nonbank thrift institutions may experience

more favorable net inflows of time and savings deposits over the next several weeks than they had in late summer and early fall, when market interest rates were higher.

However, very recent experience suggests

no more than a modest pick-up.

Because upward pressures on interest rates

in the fourth quarter of 1975 and now projected for 1976 are weaker than those antitipated earlier, consumer-type time deposit flows are no longer expected to slacken substantially in the near future.

Accordingly, the date

for an assumed upward adjustment in Regulation Q ceiling rates has been shifted forward, from year-end to mid-1976. (12)

Alternative A contemplates a modest further decline in

the Federal funds rate between now and the next Committee meeting, to the mid-point of a 4 -5

per cent range.

This would tend to strengthen forces

making for a rebound in growth of the monetary aggregates and would also

-8be more accommodative of any increase in demands for liquidity should

uncertainties with regard to municipal markets and banks continue.

would expect that such a reduction in the funds rate would have to be reversed at least by early next year in order to keep longer-run growth in M1 at around the mid-point of the 5-7½ per cent range, and that by Spring the funds rate would be around 7¾ per cent. (13)

A reduction in the funds rate over the next few weeks of

about the dimensions contemplated under alternative A would probably be accompanied by similar declines in other short-term rates and by some further decline in longer-term market rates.

Mortgage market yields would also be

likely to drop as the outlook for continued savings inflows brightens.

But

declines in mortgage yields, as well as in security rates, may be limited insofar as market participants view the easing in money market conditions Market attitudes will, of course, be influenced by the nature

as temporary. of incoming

economic news and by the degree of use, if any, of other monetary

policy instruments. (14)

Alternative C involves some rise in the Federal funds rate

over the next few weeks, to the mid-point of a 5 -6

per cent range.

Such

a reversal in the recent trend of the funds rate would likely be accompanied by a sharp rebound in market rates; the 3-month bill rate, for example, might promptly move up to the 6-6½ per cent area.

But if interest rates are pushed

up over the next few weeks, it is likely that less of an increase would be required over the longer run than under alternatives A or B, since an early start will have been made in restraining money demand.

It seems

probable that the alternative C strategy might lead to a funds rate that

peaks out at around 6¾ per cent next year.

Thus, over the longer run this

approach would place less pressure on banks and thrift institutions.

In the

short run, however, recent easing tendencies in bank and mortgage loans rates would be quickly reversed. (15)

Among the assumptions made in developing the specifications

presented in this blue book are:

(a) no more than modest business loan growth

at banks in view of (i) expected conservative inventory investment policies by business that would limit their demand for bank credit and (ii) continued relatively cautious bank lending policies; and (b) unwillingness of major banks to actively press CD's on the market in the period immediately ahead. In addition, it has been assumed that there will be no significant further impairment of confidence in the municipal market and banks.

-10Proposed directive (16)

Given below is a proposed operational paragraph if the

Committee wishes to continue formulating its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead.

No alternatives

are presented for this formulation, in the expectation that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the longer-term targets and that at this meeting the Committee will not reconsider its present 5 to 7

per cent

target range for M1, with which all of the short-run operating alternatives discussed in the preceding sections are consistent. "Monetary Aggregate" proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments

in domestic and international financial

markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead.

Should the Committee desire to formulate the directive in

(17)

terms of bank reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought.

Alternative "money market"

directives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below.

-11Alternative "Money Market" proposals Alternative A To implement this policy while taking

account of develop-

ments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT RATES ABOVE THOSE CURRENTLY EXPECTED growth moderate with consistent [DEL: aggregates monetary in

ahead]. months teh over Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of develop-

ments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: achieve] MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD,

PROVIDED

THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWIING AT ABOUT THE RATES

CURRENTLY EXPECTED [DEL: monetary in growth moderate with consistent ahead]. months the over aggregates

Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT FIRMER bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT RATES BELOW THOSE CURRENTLY EXPECTED [DEL: growth moderate with consistent ahead]. months the over aggregates monetary in

CHART 1

CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II-FOMC

11/14/75

RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-38 Oct - Nov

- 33

NI A

0 1975

H28

l lII M

I I i J

1974

I M

1975

RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes ,n reserve requirement ratios

CHART 2

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASSII-FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1

11/14/75

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

300

280 7% growth for Oct - Nov

260 growth _

BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2

8 /2

growth for Oct - Nov

5 75) 711

620

5 ~c growth

600 ,J-

580

560 1974

1975

O 1975

CHART 3

11/14/75

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

520

500

480

460

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

- 37

TOTAL

VNO NONBORROWED I

A 31

1974 1975 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adlusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios

8/15/75

CHART 4

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES EY MARKET CONDITIONS LY

PER CENT

FEDERAL FUNDS

FR DISCOUNT RATE L

RESERVES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

4 Al.

1974

1975

1974

1975

1974

1975

CONFIDENTIAL (F R) CLASS II-FOMC

1 BANK RESERVES TABLE

NUV.

14,

1975

(ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) AGGREGATE RESERVES AVAILABLE RESERVES RESERVES AVAILABLE Ped FOR PRIVATE

FOR PRIVATE

Period

MONTHLY

NONBAN DEPOSITS NSA SA SA I NSA

Total Reserves

Nonborrowed Reserves

Total Required

Private Demand

Total Time Deposits

Gov't. and Interbank 8

LEVELS-tMILLIONS 1975--AUG. SEPT OCT. NOV.

PERCENT

REQUIRED RESERVES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

32,409 32,425 32,355 (32,537)

32,164 32,242 32,257 (32,549)

34,208 34,320 34,259 (34,547)

33,

3?,923 34,069 (34,485)

?3,012 34,129 34,050 (34,286)

19:796 1l,870 19,626 (19,603)

12,21 12,365 12,519 (12,584)

1,894 1,964 (

2,010)

ANNUAL GROWTH QUARIErLY 1975--S1T QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD TPR.

0.6 -2.5

-8,4 1.2 -2.2

-1.3 -0.2

-1.4

-0.9

11.t

-2.5 -1.1

-3.7 -0.8

- l.8

-4.7

-4.2

-7.8 1.2 -2.1

-4.2

-0.7 -3e6

-3.3

11.7 1.4

-3.4 -15.4 -8.7

QUARTEL Y-AV 1975--IS QOTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR.

6.0 5.7

-1.1

2.3 -17.0 -12.2

MONTHLY 1975--AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. OCT.-NOV. WEEKLY

(

2.1)

(

-14.6 3.9 -2.1 10.1 ) (

4.0

-14.9 4.1 -2.8

-2.t -11.5 5.2

(

S 14.7)

(

8.3)

9.9)

(

2.81)

-3.1

4.5 -14.6

( 4.0) (

-?.3I

-12.2 -5.4 14.9 ( 6.2) S10.61

LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1'75--OCTe

NOV.

NOTEI

(

-6.1 0.6 -2.6 b68)

1 8 1" 22 29

32,744

5 12

33,070 32,096

32.088

32,502 32,052 32,519

32'911 31.h19 32.344 31.992 32.535

34,929 33,045 34,312 34,153 34,320

34,348 33,706

33,119

35.001 33,859

34,134

31.986

34,139 33,920

34,225

33.819

34 467 33,969 23,999 34,124 34,034

19,660 19,483 19, t71

34,130 33.830

19,t28 19.496

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONT1NUIT1ES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANCES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE LURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FUMC MEETING OF OCT. Zl, RANGE OF 0.0 TO t.0 PtECENT FOR THt OCT.-NOV. PERIOD.

19,879

19,655

12,40t 12,457 12,529 12,540

2,183 1,857 1,809

12,556

1,800

12,547 12.573

1,931 1.761

101

IN kESERVE REQUIREMENT RATI0. 1975 THE COMMITTEE AGREED UN A RPU

Table 2

CONFIDENTIAL (F R.) CLASS II FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES

NOV.

14,

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad

Period

Adjusted Credit

U S Govt

TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other

(M1)

(M2)

Proxy

Deposits

Total

Than CD's

CD's

_39e4 3b1.d 364.5 (367.)

e7oO 79.1 bl.3 ( BI.1)

Nondeposit Sources of Funds

MONTHLY LFVtLS-SbILLIGNS 1975--AUG SEPT. OCT. NOV.

294.2 204.7 244.0 (296.7)

653.7 656.3 658.5 (664.71

%03.0 505.8 508.0 (11.7)

(

2.9 3.1 2.9 6.)

437*4 440.7 445.8 1449.01

(

7.0 7.0 7.r 7.4)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1 75--15T QTR. 2Nt, QTR. 3RODQ4.

0.8

7.b 13.4 6.3

3.1 7.5 -1.3

10.1 t.7 3..-

)3.4 9.7

-2.2 -25.4 -23.8

0.9

5.8 11.2 10.4

4.1 5.2 1.4

12.7 4.2 4.9

11.0 13.3 13.2

19.2 -24.0 -29.3

2.4 2.0 -2.9 11.0)

(

5.9 4.8 4.0 11.)

(

-5.5 6.7 5.2 8.71

(

-4. 9.1 13.9 B,6)

(

8.1 7.7 9.. 11.Z)

-59.9 16.9 33.4 ( -3.0)

4 4.1)

(

7.0)

(

11.3)

(

10.3)

(

11.o 2.3

0'.3

OUARTERLY-AV 1975--IST QTR. 2NO OTR. 3RD QTR.

-0.3 8.6

MONTHLY 1975--AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. OCT.-NOV.

7,7)

15.2)

WEEKLY LEVELS-SILLIONS 1 75--OCT.

NOV.

1 6 15 22 29

293.7 293v4 294.7 294.3

5 P

£92.5

655.8 656.3 650.1 650.0 658.0

505.3 506.9 507.9 '08.7 507.2

1.9 2.9 3.3 3.5 e3

443.0 445 445.8 445.7 446.7

362.1 362.' 364.4 364.6 365.5

60.9 81.6 81.4 81.0 8P13

7.1 7.5 7.8 8.4 7.9

295.7

61 9

10.2

3.0

447.23

3(.2

81.1

8.0

NCTE:

DATA SHOWN

PARtN1HESES ARE

CURRENT

PROJECTIONS.

PRELIMINARY

1975

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC

NOVEMBER 14, 1975 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECT OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) I-

I S ills A

Period_

ccep . (1)

1975--Apr. May June

1,319 197 -413

I,.,

TIo a l

Daily Average Reserve Effects 21 .-

upen

On«

~. r narKetc r..

a V

MemDer .,

r,I,,

n rn

7,829 -3,207 -1,317

2,229 5,064 -3,165

4 -50 211

-1,767

-5,747 3,438

1 -96

-2 313 393

-623 1,007 2,008

-2,926

-832 -1,332 2,458

-10 -50 186

553 1,210 -2,432

-124

284

435 -240 -932

394

22 29

501 690

-1

-85 -910

I ____-.~I

98 7

-70p

2,384 -4,057 -29 8,306

747 -1,857 678 3,399

-638 1,263 -166 -3,402

17 25 1 143

42 -456

-263

1,767

2,798 -2,763 -1,935 935 2,418

-2,157 1,922 2,462 -1,112 -2,156p

61 -86 -65 236 -422p

766 -1,098 527p -353p 546p

-7,612 5,204

407 -4,580

3,465p

616

453 -78

132p -1,047p

82p 95 - p

Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period: includes redemptions in regular bill Represents change in daily average level for preceeding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, FR. float, gold and foreign accounts, Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for October and November reflects the target adopted Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were P - Preliminary.

265

278

-165p

495

-325 -45 10

2,225 -3,833 -794 6,512

4,028

ava.-auscS

II rocerva (11)

-456 -48 114

167

-1,135p

a Target

580

1,276

-6,047

-20 p

Iri-

-170 215

445

-7,526 6,114

412 -734

-1,092 -5,806 1,548 3,527 793

284

1,222 5,155

orrow ng (7)

In Reserve Categories

Keq. res. against avatsauLS LM.-qi urner 4/ T4tUh (L-)+7(i-E's-(9~ .A VFt "1 C 0 actors 11 . . . r . 6 (10) (8) (9)

5,442 -3,357 -1,855

(6)

-11

-2 -97 -6

(5)

perat ons

.. l

1,070 50 958

1 8 15

________

r II

I ssues I I (3)

5 12 19 26

KrNTi* et (4)

ssues t. (2)

-1 -1

-_________

Agency tI...

-113 -223 309 1,427

Nov.

coupon

147

Oct. Nov. De.

Oct.

Open- Marketi-'--i--rOperations 11

-2,302 -371 1,932

July Aug. Sept,

1975--Sept.

auctions. and other F.R. accounts. at the October 21, 1975 FOMC meeting. adopted during the month.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II--FOMC NOVEMBER 14, 1975 TABLE 4 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted)

Treasury Bills Net Change 2/

Period 1972 1973 1974 1974--Qtr. III Qtr. IV 1975--Qtr. I

Within 1-year

Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Over 1- 5 5 - 10 10

Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Total

Within 1-year

1- 5

5 - 10

789 579 797

539 500 434

167 129 196

1,582 1,415 1,747

46 120 439

592 400 1,665

253 244 659

168 101 318

1.059 864 3,082

1,631 9,273 6,303

945 -43

49 102

118 215

62 131

73 45

302 492

195 138

726 371

165 130

117 53

1,203 691

2,620 1,402

285

584

508

-2

3,076

230

747

1,060

2,392

1,054

625

312

2,024

169

1,086

218

1,135

454

273

2,079

Qtr. III

-757

712

201

171

1,096

514

106 -

143

June

-352

650

180

109

July

-2,305

1975--Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

958

-1,358 -46 -154 -986 -238

150

-3,357

539

-1,855

-2,304

-623

13 -

150 562

64 137

47 124

274 822

41 23

229 285

49 57

34 29

353 394

216 3,148

1,007 2,008

141

284

430

-369 1,917

Oct.

RP's Net 6/

87 207 320

-2,093

Aug. Sept.

Total

-490 7,232 1,280

Qtr. II

1975--May

Over 10

Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/

-116

150

273

159

2,225

10 17

-200 309

-314

-91

-51

456

--- --

-223 765

-3,833 -794

1,396

248

367

1,794

6,512

413

285

8 15 22

-239 -926 479

----

--- ----

--- --- -

671

5 192

-93

141

71 --- 394 -

14 -

284

829

-1,092

-240 -932 502

-5,806 1,548 3,527

974

793

-85

-7,526

-910

6,114

Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreigh accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC NOVEMBER 14, 1975

TABLE 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars)

U.S. Govt. Security

Member Bank Reserve Positions

Dealer Positions

Corporate Period

Bills

Coupon Issues

(1)

(2)

1974--High Low

3,678 -289

2,203 -309

1975--High Low

7,029 1.586

1 7 --Oct. Nov. Dec.

Bonds

(3)

Municipal Bonds

Borrowing at FRB**

Reserves

(4)

(5)

253 0

384 27

577 -168

2,845 253

464 0

389 48

462 -50

2,174 2,900 2,985

654 1,608 1,836

25 83 175

166 268 149

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar.

2.501 3,329 3,143

2,050 2,121 2,521

97 144 307

Apr. May June

2,737 4,744 5,201

1,617 1,752 1,351

July Aug. Sept.

4,231 4,020 5,008

Oct.

Basic Reserve Deficit

Excess** Total

Seasonal

8 New York

38 Others

(6)

(7)

3,906 647

176 13

-7,870 -2,447

-12,826 - 6,046

871 18

74 5

-7,387 -1,757

-11,390 - 7,207

197 205 258

1,813 1,252 727

117 67 32

-4,602 -6,322 -5,960

- 8,689 - 9,715 -10,169

79 166 195

147 198 195

398 147 96

14 11 7

-5,378 -6,318 -5,732

- 9,744 - 9,533 -10,302

35 91 89

115 170 118

143 155 201

110 66 227

6 9 11

-4,079 -3,965 -5,821

-10,426 - 9,567 - 9,344

1,246 1,204 588

60 44 31

135 181 122

188 195 191

259 211 397

17 37 58

-5,546 -3,964 -3,551

- 9,896 - 9,966 - 9,015

5,766

1,480

123

188p

65p

-2,644

- 9,202

3 10 17 24

4,294 5,070 5,384 4,779

1,103 894 253 477

1 33 30 58

183 84 113 107

301 -6 267 31

222 385 327 395

51 54 61 64

-2,745 -4,884 -3,932 -3,190

- 9,391 -10,478 -10,094 - 8,393

Oct.

1 8 15 22 29

4,657 5,812 7,029 *6,037 *5,085

462 846 1,576 *1,835 *1,456

5 0 17 10 25

142 154 86 110 122

462 -24 313 29p 286p

581 238 173 22 3p 95p

74 74 66 63p 61p

-2,575 -2,663 -3,475 -2,236 -2,206

- 7,207 - 9,923 -10,042 - 9,398 - 7,661

Nov.

5 12

*4,928 *4,050

*2,751 *2,585

48 69p

194 11Op

67p 4 0p

43p 27p

- ,821p -5,092p

1975--Sept.

07p

03p 23p

(8)

(9)

- 8,819p -11,372p

NOTE:

Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. *

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC

NOVEMBER 14, 1975 TABLE 6 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent) Short-Term

Treasury Bills Federal Funds

Period

90-day

1-year

90-119 Day Commercial PaRer

Long-Term

CD's New Issue-NYC 60-89 Day

90-119 Day

Aaa Utility New Issue

Municipal

Recently Offered

Bond Buyer

(9)

U.S. Government (20-yr. Constant Maturity)

A Auctions Yields

(11)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

9.63 6.53

12.25 7.88

12.25 8.00

12.00 7.88

10.61 8.05

10.52 8.14

7.15 5.16

8.68 7.40

10.59 8.43

7.70 5.13

6.68 5.02

8.43 5.38

7.88 5.25

7.75 5.38

9.80 8.89

9.71 9.06

7.67 6.27

8.63 7.63

9.95 8.78

10.06 9.45 8,53

7.46 7.47

9.35 8.78 9.00

9.33 8.72 8.84

10.16 9.21 9.53

10.23 9.34 9.56

6.57 6.61 7.05

8.37 7.99

7.15

9.55 8.95 9.18

7.91

10.22 9.87 9.53

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar.

7.13 6.24 5.54

6.26 5.50 5.49

7.39 6.36 6.06

7.43 6.00 5.88

7.45 6.25 6.03

9.36 8.97 9.35

9.45 9.09 9.38

6.82 6.39 6.74

7.88 7.71 7.99

9.25 8.93 8.82

Apr. May June

5.49 5.22 5.55

5.61 5,23 5.34

6.11 5.70 5.67

5.85 5.44 5.34

6.03 5.63 5.51

9.67 9.63 9.20

9.66 9.65 9.33

6.94 6.97 6.94

8.36 8.22 8.04

9.06 9.27 9.09

July

6.10 6.14 6.24

6.13 6.44 6.42

6.32

Aug. Sept.

6.59 6.79

6.05 6.31 6.44

6.25 6.63 6.81

9.42 9.45 9.68

9.43 9.49 9.57

7.06 7.17 7.44

8.17 8.50 8.57

9.14 9.41 9.78

Oct.

5.82

5.96

6.35

6.08

6.45

9.45

9.43

7.39

8.35

9.80

6.06 6.15 6.28 6.29

6.40 6.39 6.48 6.36

6.69 6.75 6.80 6.83

6.38 6.38 6.50 6.50

6.75

9.41 9.50 9.61 9.70

7.34 7.40 7.49 7.54

8.47

9.64 9.68 9.70

6.36 6.06 5.82 5.73 5.65

6.47 6.32 6.13 5.83 5.66

6.80

6.50

7,00

6.83 6.53 6.23 5.93

6.38 6.13 5.75 5.63

6.75 6.38 6.00 6.13

9.72 9.60 9.53 9.32 9.22

9.70 9.56 9.41 9.30 9.33

7.67 7.48 7.29 7.17 7.36

8.59 8.43 8.34 8.26

5.17

5.52 5.39

5.88 5.81

5.88

5.24

5.63

6.13 6.00

9.10 9.08p

9.24 9. 2 0 p

7.52 7.43

8.19 8.19p

5.31 5.22p

5.51 5.37

(L)

(2)

1974--High Low

13.55 8,45

1975--High Low

1974--Oct. Nov.

Dec.

1975--Sept. 3 10 17 24 Oct.

1 8 15

22 29 Nov.

5 12 19 26

Daily--Nov. 6 13

5.90 5.97

5.88 5.75

6.88

6.88 6.75

(10)

8.61 8.63 8.52

8.22

8.19

n.a,

Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7,8, and 10, the Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceeding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. p - Preliminary NOTE:

APPENDIX TABLE 1-A

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES Y

RESERVES Period

T ota

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

BANK CREDIT MEASURES

Available to Support pvt Deposits

Non N borrowed

Total Loans and Invest. ments

Adl Credit proxy

4 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

ANNUALLY: 1972 1973 1974

10.8 7.9 8.5

7.4 7.3 10.7

10.1 9.2

NOV. 14, 1975

9.2

8.7 6.1 4.8

11.1 8.8 7.Z

13.2 8.8 6.8

12.5 11.6 10.6

14.0 10.6 9.0

12.9 11.2 9.1

12 .9 11.9 8 9

14.6

8e9

11.3 10.4 10.2

13.5

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF ZND HALF

1974 1974

10.9 5.9

0.3 21.1

12.6

14.5

5.0

5.4

15.0 3.1

6.3 3.1

8.7 5.5

7.9 5.4

13.3 7.5

10.9 6.7

11.0 6.9

11 .0 6 .5

1ST

1975

-3.6

-0.7

-2.1

5.3

5.1

6.0

10.6

13.0

7.5

10.7

10.1

9.9

0.9

4.2

-1.0

5.3

6.7

6.9

9.0

8.4

8 .1

6.5

-4.7 0.6 -2.5

3.1 7.5 -1.3

5.7 4.6 3.6

0.8 11.2 2.3

7.6 13.4 6.3

9.9 15.7 9.7

6.3 8.6 2.9

8.8 12.3 7.2

7.9 12.0 6.9

7.6 11 .9 6.6

2.6

3.5

0.2

3.9

6.2

7.3

6.8

6.2

1.0 5.1

-0.3 8.6 6.9

5.8 11.2 10.4

7.8 13.8 13.1

7.4 6.6 5.6

8.6 10.6 9.9

8.0

7.0 9.9 9.2

3.8 8.5 3.4

8.4 7.9 3.7

7l1 7.7 5.9

9.8 5.7 11.4

8.0 6.2 10.8

8.8 5.8 9.4

8.5

2.5 8.4 11.6 7.3 13.4 19.2 8.2 5.9 4.8 4.0

5.6 9.9 13.9 11 .7 14.9 19.6 12.2 9.4 7.3 6.9

6.7 6.1 6.1 4.2 7.0 14.3 4.1 -1.5 6.1 7.2

7.9 8.2 10.2 9.2 10.7 16.7 9.1 4.4 8.0 8.7

8.2 7.0 8.2 9.6 10.0 16.3 9.2 3.7 7.9 8.5

7.5 6.9 8.5

HALF

OUARTERLY: 4TH OTR.

1974

3.6

IST OTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD QTR.

1975 1975 1975

-8.4 1.2 -2.2

36.4 -1.3 -0.2 -4.2

QUARTERLY-AV: 47H OTR*

1974

1ST OTR. 2ND OTR* 3RD OTR.

1975 1975 1975

1.4

27.5 11.6 -2.8 -2.8

-1.4

4.1

-3.7 -0.8

-2.5 -1.1

5.2 1.4

-3.0 -1.4 15.4

52.5 19.0 34.8

-1.3 -2.5 6.6

-0.2 5.2 7.6

0.0 -8.6 -5.5 2.9 -10.3 9.1 -2.1 -6.1 0.6 -2.6

3.6 -0.2

-0.9

4.1

5.8

9.9 9.5

MONTHLY: 1974-OCT. NOV. DEC.

7.9 -27.3 -5.6 8.2 -14.7' 10.3 4.1 -14.6 3.9 -2.1

1975--JAN. FEE. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. P

a NOTFS:

19.5 -19.0 -4.1 8.1 -13.2 4.7 1.5 -11.5 -2.6 5.2 I

1.4

5.0 -9.4

4.7 4.3

5.8

7.9

5.1

3.4 5.1 5.1 2.0 6.8 2.0

2.4

15.1 -5.2 -5.5 6.7 5.2 S

6.0 U

-11.8 3.4 11.0 3.4 11.3 18.7 2.0 2.9 2.0 -2.9

______________

RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY.

______________

16,

1969. AND REQUIREMENTS

3.6

7.3

9.5

9.8 15.9 8.8 3.4 7.5 8.1 -

ON BANK-RELATED

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

NOV.

14,

1975

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RE RESERVES

BANK CREDIT MEASURES

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

Total

Nonboro borrowed

Available to uprt pits Deposits

Ad! Credit proxy

Tots Loans and Invests ments

30,016 32,377

28.966 31,078

27,734 30,272

406.4 448.7

559.0 634.6

255.8 271.5

34,734 34.693 35,138

32,921 33.441 34,411

32,863 32,795 32,975

488.3 491.2 494.3

696.0 697.4 691.9

281.6

1975--JANe FEB. MAR.

35,368 34,564 34,404

34.970 34,417 34,298

32,974 32,739 32,588

495.8 495.7 498.1

APR. MAY JUNE

34,640 34,216 34,510

34,530 34,150 34.283

32668

JULY AUG. SEPT.

34,628 34.208 34,320

Period

525.7 572.2

844.9 919.6

569.7 636.0

888.8 983.4

985.5 1095.4

1013.1 1133.6

283.6 284.4

607.6 611.6 613.5

970.7 976.9 981.7

693.8 697.1 703.7

1056.9 1062.4 1072.0

1180.1 1185.8 1195.1

1223.5 1227 .2 1234.7

694.6 697.1 701.7

281.6 282.4 285.0

614.8 619.1 625.1

986.3 994.4 1005.9

707.6 711.2 714.8

1079.1 1086.5 1095.7

1203.3 1210.3 1218.6

1242.4 1249.5 1268.3

32,633

500.2 501.2 507.5

703.7 706.7 709.7

285.8 288.5 293.0

628.9 635.9 646.1

1015.7 1028.3 1045.3

717.3 721.5 730.1

1104.1 1113.9 1129.4

1228.3 1238.5 1255.3

1268.3 1278.7 1295.6

34.326 339996 33,923

329575 32,409 32,425

505.3 503.0 505.8

710.9 714.9 716.1

293.5 294.2 294.7

650.5 653.7 656.3

1055.9 1064.2 1070.7

732.6 731.7 735.4

1138.0

1142.2 1149.

1Z64.9 1268.8 1277.1

1305 1 1308.8 1317.0

34,259

34.069

32,355

508.0

719.7

294.0

658.5

1076.9

739.8

1158.1

1286.1

1325.9

33,935 34.258 34,279

33.550 33,931 33,884

32,241 32,473 32,265

506.4 506.2 505.3

295.5 295.4 293.5

656,5 656.8 654.8

734.6 735.5 734.5

34,929

8 15

33,945

32,744 32,088 32,502 32,052 32,519

505.3 506.9 507.9 508.7 507.2

293.7 293.4 294.7 294.3 292.5

655.8 656.3 659.1

659.0 658.0

736.7 737.9 740.5 740.0 739.3

33.070

510.2

295.7

661.9

743.0

ANNUALLY! 1972 1973

MONTHLY: 1974--0CT, NOV. DEC.

OCT.

32,388

WEEKLY: 1975--SEPT.1O 17 24 OCT.

NOV.

34,312 34,153 34,320

35,001

34.934

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3. MS. M6, MT, TOTAL LOANS AND rNVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY

NOTES!

1/ P -

22P 29P

34,348 339706 34.139 33*920 34,225

NOV. 14,

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

1975

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES U--

--- ----

Demand Deposits

Period

Total Tiot Deposits

ANNUALLY:

Time Mutua l The Savings Credt CDs Union Bank Other Tan an CD's CD'S and $ & L Shares I I SharesY 1s] 4 5 6 7 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

Saings Bonds

Short Commercal Term U S Gov't Paper Securities 9

15.7 16.2 15.0

13.5

10.2

8.9 5.5 3.1

11.4 9.4

16.7 8.5 5.6

5.2 1.0

18.6 10.5

10.9 7.6

5.9 5.1

1972 1973

8.2 8.3

1974

18.0 13.9 11.8

31.0 45.3

41.5

0.5 30.9 15.7

15.0 38.8 3.4

13.0 9.9

54.9 22.1

19.2 11.2

12.5 -5.4

3.0

3.5

SEMI-ANNUALLY 1ST HALF 2ND HALF

1974 1974

9.7 10.2

1ST HALF

1975

9.4

5.0

8.5

14.6

16.3

22.5

12.1

3.2

11.6

7.9

6.9

12.0

-13.7

QUARTERLY: 4TH QTKe 1974 IST QTR. 2NO OTR. 3RD QTR.

1975 1975 1975

8.8 9.8 5.1

1.4

10.1 6.7 3.3

13.4 15.3 9.7

8.2

-1.7

11.7

13.1 18.9

20.4 23.5

25.9

4.0

-34.2

-2.2

-7.3 13.5 2.0

-4.0

1.0 6.0

11.8

-25.4 -23.8

4.9

10.6

15.2

10.8

-9.4

11.0 13.3 13.2

10.8 17.6 17.6

17.6 22.5 17.3

19.2 -24.0 -29.3

-3.3 2.0 6.6

-20.2 8.1 -2.0

11.9 7.7 4.0

4.3 7.1 9.2

9.0 13.4 13.2

19.8 -9.7 67.4

24.1 -2.0 -9.9

2.8 -55.3 -52.2

14.9 12.6 12.1 10.6 15.0 19.7 13.3 8.1 7.7 9.3

9.9 11.5 17.6 18.4 17.1 20.2 18.9 14.7 12.3 11.6

17.5 17.2 25.4 20.8 20.4 28.1 15.7 19.4 0.0 11 .4

31.9 -7.8 -30.0 -18.7 -39.4 -19.6 -28.5 -59.9 16.9 33.4

15.9 -15.7 -21.9 20.3 0.0 19.9 11.8 -11.7 5.9 5.9

-15.2 6.1 12.2 9.1 6.0 3.0 -3.0 -6.0 -3.0

QUARTERLY-AVi 4TH QTR.

1974

11.6

1.7

9.7

1ST OTR. 2ND OT. 3RD QTR.

1975 1975 1975

8.9 8.7 8.5

-3.3

12.7

8.6 6.6

5.2 4.9

2.2 5.6 1.7

13.5 4.1

MONTHLY: 1974--OCT. MOV. DEC.

10.9 16.2 8.9

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. P

5.3 8.8 12.2 1.7 12.1 8.4 1*7 10.0

16.8

19.2 7.9

3.1 4.5

3.9 11.6

5.5 -4.6

9.1 13.9

0.0

. I 1 J . I r I I J RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER I, 1970, 1/ GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY.

____________

NOTES:

15.4 T.1

-17.2 1.7 10.7 3.9 11.1 19.8 1.1 1.1 2.2 -7.0

NOV.

14,

1975

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Per

Curren

emand Totl DepositsDepos 2

Tme Other Than

MutualnSavng ak and & L

CD_ _ 4

Shares i 5

US C U

sTime Sangs

Bonds

Uic m S.

Commerca Cnm

Ndeposit

U Gov't

Paper

Funds

Demand

Secuit 6

ANNUALLY: 56.9 61.6

198.9 209.9

313.8 364.5

269.9 300.7

297.5 322.8

21.6 24.6

43.9 63.8

57.0 59.9

39.8 52.1

27.6 38.3

4.3 6.6

5.6 3.9

1974--OCT. NOV. DEC.

66.5 67.4 67.9

215.2 216.2 216.5

412.1 413.5 419.3

325.9 328.0 329.1

336.2 338.2 340.8

26.9 27.2 27.5

86.2 85.5 90.3

62.3 62.6 62.8

60.9 60.8 60.3

43.4 41.4 39.6

7.9 7.6 8.4

3.7 4.6 1.9

1975--JAN. FEBE MAR.

68.2 68.7 6904

213.4 213.7 215.6

426.0 428.8 429.9

333.2 336.7 340.1

343.6 346.9 352.0

27.9 28.3 28.9

92.7 92.1 89.8

63.2 63.5 63.8

61.1 60.3 59.2

39.1 39.3 39.7

7.6 6.5 6.5

0.7 0.6 0.7

APR. MAY JUNE

69.5 70.2 71.1

216.3 218.3 221.9

431.5 432.9 437.1

343.1 353.1

357.4 362.5 368.6

29.4 29.9 30.6

88.4 85.5 84.1

64.1 64.4 64.7

60.2 60.2 61.2

40.0 40.2 40.3

6.7 7 4 7.0

2.1 2.1 3.8

JULY AUG. SEPT.

71.4 71.9 72.0

222.1 222.4 222.7

439.1 437.4 440.7

357.0 359.4 361.7

374,4 379.0 382.9

31.0 31.5 31.5

82.1 78.0 79.1

65.1 65.4 65.8

61.8 61.2 61.5

40.2 40.0 39.9

6.8 7.0 7.0

2.5 2.9 3.1

72.6

221.4

445.8

364.5

386.6

31.8

81.3

66.2

61.8

39.9

7.9

2.9

71.0 72.1 72.1

223.6 223.4 221.4

439.1 440.0 441.0

361.0 361.3 361.3

78.1 78.7 79.7

1.0 7.0 7.0

4.2 4.0 d.9

1 8 15 22P 29P

72.0 72.5 72.6 72.5 72.7

221.7 221.0 222.1 221.9 219.9

443.0 444.5 445.8 445.7 446.7

362.1 362.9 364.4 364.6 365.5

80.9 81.6 81.4 81.0 81.3

7.1 7.5 7.8 8.4 7.9

1.9 2.9 3.3 3.5 2.3

7-.8

222.9

447.3

366.2

81.1

8.0

3.0

1972 1973

MONTHLY

OCT.

947.4

WEEKLY: 1975--SEPT.10 17 24 OCT.

NOV.

NOTES:

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER SANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVe REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY OATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITIUTION DEPOSITS. ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND EN OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA.

Appendix Table III

Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate)

9.1

8.8

10.4

8.6

10.5

9.1

7.8

5.2

7.5

8.9

9.8

7.9

7.3

3.4

6.8

11.3

7.3

0.6

5.5

8.7

5.0

QIV '72-QIV '73

6.1

6.3

8.8

8.9

8.8

9.0

1974

5.5

5.8

9.3

9.6

8.9

9.1

7.0

7.3

7.9

8.3

6.8

7.6

1.0

3.5

4.2

6.0

3.8

5.2

5.3

3.9

6.7

6.2

6.9

5.8

4.8

5.2

7.2

7.7

6.8

7.1

0.8

-0.3

7.6

5.8

9.9

7.8

1973

III IV

II1 III IV QIV '73-QIV 1975

'74

11.2

8.6

2.3

6.9

10.6

5.6 10.8

13.4 6.3

11.2

10.4

15.7 9.7

13.8 13.1

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

Appendix Table IV Projected Federal Funds Rates

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1975

QIV

5¼

5½

5¾

1976

6¼

6½

QII

7¾

7¼

6¾

QIII

7¾

7½

6¾

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1975, November 17). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19751118

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19751118,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1975},
  month = {Nov},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19751118},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}