bluebooks · December 15, 1975

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing).

A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Content last modified 6/05/2009.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

December 12, 1975

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC

December 12,

1975

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1)

M1 increased at about a 12 per cent annual rate in November,

but data available for recent weeks suggest that growth in December will be much slower.

For November and December combined,

projected to grow at about a 7 per cent annual rate.

M1is, therefore, Growth in time deposits

other than money market CD's has been somewhat stronger than expected at the time of the November FOMC meeting, and M2 is projected to increase at about a 9.7 per cent annual rate over the November-December period, in the upper Net inflows to thrift institu-

part of the Committee's range of tolerance. tions have been well maintained.

Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over November-December Period Reserve and monetary aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent)

Ranges of Tolerance

6 to 10

7.1

7½ to 10½

9.7

RPD

4½ to 8½

4.7

Memo:

Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

Latest Estimates

Avg. for statement

4½ to 5½

week ending Nov. 19 5.24 Dec.

26 3

5.28 5.25

5.26

-2(2)

Some of the unexpected strength in "other" time deposits at

banks stems from increases in business

savings accounts following the recent

lifting of the regulatory prohibition on business holdings of such deposits. In the first three weeks after this regulatory change, they rose to about

$530 million at the weekly reporting banks.

Since this form of saving probably

appeals mainly to smaller firms, much of the recent growth may well reflect shifts of funds out of demand deposits. (3) With growth in M2 consistently in the upper part of its range, and M1 growth in November large (particularly after taking account of the shift of corporate deposits from demand to savings accounts), the Desk has continued to seek reserve conditions consistent with Federal funds trading around 5 per cent.

Member bank borrowing has remained minimal.

Despite the stability of the

Federal funds rate, short-term market interest rates have edged higher in recent weeks.

These increases appear to reflect in part some market concern

that the recent strengthening of key monetary aggregates may before long induce the System to tighten money market conditions.

In addition, they may reflect

seasonal corporate dividend and tax date pressures. (4) The volume of securities going through longer-term markets has been quite heavy, and longer-term rates have remained at relatively advanced levels.

The Treasury this week announced that it will raise $3

billion of new cash through 2-year and 4-year notes to be auctioned in late December.

Moreover, the volume of new corporate and municipal bond issues has

been large--due in part to heavy foreign financing activity.

The enactment

of a Federal assistance program for New York City has helped bring about

-3scattered declines in municipal yields.

But the market is still affected by

uncertainties with regard to state agencies, longer-run prospects for the state itself, and legal challenges to the mandated restructuring of New York City's debt. (5) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various time periods.

Past

Calendar Year 1974 Total reserves

Twelve Months Nov. '75 over Nov. '74

Six Months Nov. '75 over May. '75

Past

Three Past. Months Month Nov. '75 Nov. '75 over over Aug. '75 Oct. '75

8.5

-.2

2.3

10.7

3.3

2.3

8.9

-.9

4.8

4.7

5.9

3.8

12.2

7.2

8.8

9.3

7.3

12.9

6.8

11.4

11.7

9.2

12.5

M4 (M2 plus CD's)

10.6

7.2

7.1

8.4

11.7

M5 (M3 plus CD's)

9.0

10.1

9.8

11.7

10.2

4.4

4.7

7.9

11.6

9.2

4.1

5.5

6.2

10.5

2.2

-.3

-.7

1.1

Nonborrowed reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits

4.7 6.5 1.0

12.3 16.9 5.2

Concepts of Money M 1 (currency plus demand

deposits)

M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks

other than large CD's) M3 (

plus deposits at thrift institutions)

Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.)

Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions)

Large CD's

-.8 -1.0 -.5 -.3 .4 Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (6)

Summarized below for Committee consideration are alternative

operating specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate for the period between now and the next Committee meeting.

All of

the alternatives can be viewed as being consistent with the FOMC's current longer-run objectives for the aggregates--as indexed by a 5-7½ per cent rate of growth in M1 from QIII '75 to QIII '76.

They do, of course, imply

differing patterns of growth in M 1 over the target period and differing levels and time paths of interest rates (as shown in appendix table IV). Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Ranges of tolerance for December-January M11/

4½-6½

4-6

3½-5½

M2 1/

7½-9½

7-9

6½-8½

RPD

4½-6

4-6

3½-5½

4¾-5¾

5¼-6¼

Federal funds rate

4¼-5¼

1/ The 2-month growth rates for M1 and M2 are based on preliminary new seasonal factors.

Appendix table V compares the new and previous factors

for M1 and shows the effect of the change on monthly growth rates.

For

the December-January period, the new factors add about 2¼ percentage points to the growth rate for M1. The revised money supply series incorporating new seasonal factors will not be published until late January. By that time benchmark and certain other statistical adjustments will have been completed for M1, weekly seasonals consistent with the monthly seasonals will have been developed, and figures for reserves and bank credit will also have been revised. With the exception of the table in paragraph (6), all tables show data based on the old seasonal factors. However, the figures in parentheses in the detailed table on p. 5a reflect the new seasonal factors.

-5aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates. M1

1975 1976 1975

1976

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

November December January

297.0 297.5 298.6

297.0

297.0 297.5 298.2

665.6 669.2 673.6

665.6 669.2 673.2

665.6 669.2 672.8

1088.7 1096.3 1104,8

1088.7 1096.2 1104.1

1088.7 1096.1 1103.4

QIII QIV

294.1 296.2

294.1

294.1 296.2

653.5 664.4

653.5

653.5 664.4

1063.7 1087.5

1063.7 1087.4

QI Oil

301,2 307.4 312.4

300.7 306.7 312.4

300.3

678,7 693.3 706.8

678.0 692.6

312.4

679.8 694.7 706.4

1115.2 1140.8 1161.9

1113.6 1138.6 1162.0

1112.2 1137.4 1162.5

2.0(0.8) , 2.0(0.8)

2.0(0.8)

6.5(5.9)

4.4(9.9)

2.8(8.3)

QIII

297.5

298.4 296.2

306.3

664.4

707.2

Growth Rates Monthly: 1975 1976

December 1/ January 17

3.6(9.1)

6.5(5.9) 6.5(5.9) 7.9(10.7) 7.2(10.0) 6.5(9.3)

8.4 9.3

8.3 8.6

9.0 9.6 9.0 8.2

8.9

Quarterly Average: QIV QI QII QIII

2.9 6.8 8.2 6.5

2.9 6.1 8.0 7.4

2.9 5.5 8.0 8.0

6.7 9.3 8.8 6.7

6.7 8.6 8.6 7.8

6.7 8.2 8.6

8.4

9.0 10.2 9.2 7.4

QIII '75-QI '76 QI '76-QIII '76

4.8 7.4

4.5 7.8

4.2 8.1

8.0 7.8

7.7 8.3

7.5 8.6

9.7 8.4

9.4 8.7

9.1 9.0

QIII '75-QIII '76

6.2

8.1

8.2

9.2

9.3

1975 1976

9.1 9.1 8.8

1/ Figures in parentheses represent rates of growth based on the preliminary new seasonal factors and are consistent with 2-month growth rates shown in summary table in paragraph (6).

-5b-

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy

M4 Alt, A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

November December January

747.0 751.9 757.0

747.0 -751.9 756.6

747.0 751.9 756.2

1170.1 1179.0 1188.3

1170,1 1178.9 1187.5

1170.1 1178.8 1186.8

512.9 516.1 519.4

512.9 516.1 519.1

512.9 516.1 518.8

1975

QIII QIV

733.2 746.2

1143.5 1169.3

1143.5 1169.2

504.7 512.3

1976

QI QII QIII

764.1 780.9 794.5

762.8 779.3 794.6

762.1 778.6 795.1

1199.5 1227.0 1250.0

1197.7 1224.6 1249,7

1196.3 1223.4 1250.4

523.0 530.4 535.3

522.1 529.2 535.3

521.5 528.7 535.7

7.9 8.1

7.9 7.5

7.9 6.9

9.1 9.5

9.0 8.8

8.9 8.1

7.5 7.7

7.5 7.0

7.5 6.3

7.1 9.6 8.8 7.0

7.1 8.9 8.7 7.9

7.1 8.5 8.7 8.5

9.0 10.3 9.2 7.5

9.0 9.7 9.0 8.2

9.0 9.3 9.1 8.8

6.0 8.4 5.7 3.7

6.0 7.7 5.4 4.6

6.0 7.2 5.5 5.3

QIII '75-QI '76 QI '76-QIII '76

8.4 8.0

8.1 8.3

7.9 8.7

9.8 8.4

9.5 8.7

9.2 9.0

7.3 4.7

6,9 5.1

6.7 5.4

QIII '75-QIII '76

8.4

9.3

6.1

1975 1976

Growth Rates

Monthly: 1975 1976

December January

Quarterly Averages: 1975 1976

QIV QI QII QIII

-6(7)

Under alternative B the Federal funds rate range is centered

around the 5¼ per cent level that has been prevailing for several weeks. The staff believes that in these circumstances M 1 would grow in about a 4-6 per cent, annual rate, range and M 2 in a 7-9 per cent range.

Growth

of M 1 in the December-January period is expected to be constrained by continuing shifts of corporate funds from demand deposits to savings accounts. The expected range of M 1 growth reflects our assumption that such shifts may reduce M

growth by 1 to 1

percentage points.

This assumption is based on an

evaluation of early data on the increase in corporate savings accounts and our expectation that the pace at which funds are transferred out of demand accounts will slow. (8)

Assuming little change in money market conditions, the 3-month

bill rate is likely to fluctuate within a relatively narrow range between now and the next Committee meeting.

The rate could drop somewhat as mid-

December dividend and tax date pressures ease, but offsetting upward pressures are likely to be generated by a continuation of the Treasury's practice of raising sizable amounts of new cash in the weekly and monthly bill auctions. Longer-term rates are likely to change little over the period ahead.

The

holiday period will provide only a brief respite for the market, since the prospective volume of new corporate and municipal offerings in January remains relatively sizable and a large amount of Treasury financing is anticipated for the first quarter of the year.

-7(9)

The basic outlook over the longer run for monetary aggregates and

interest rates appears little changed from the previous blue book.

Under

alternative B, the Federal funds rate would be expected to begin rising by around mid-winter and may reach the 7-7½ per cent range by summer, which would be a shade less than projected last time.

Growth in time deposits other than

large CD's is expected to moderate progressively over the first half of next year.

We have assumed that shifts of funds from demand deposits into corporate

savings accounts will become negligible by late winter, but this assumption is subject to considerable uncertainty because of the novelty of the development. (10)

Although there may be some effort on the part of banks to issue

CD's for year-end window-dressing purposes, banks are not likely to be aggressive issuers of CD's in the weeks ahead.

Loan demands are likely to remain on the

moderate side, and banks should have ample funds from other sources to accommodate these demands.

Moreover, there are no signs that banks are significantly changing

their conservative lending and liability management policies.

Thus, bank credit

growth will probably be relatively moderate in the December-January period, and also in the first half of next year. (11)

Alternative A contemplates a decline in the Federal funds rate

to the mid-point of a 4¼-5¼ per cent range.

Given the high rates of growth

in the monetary aggregates in November, such an easing in the money market would be contrary to current market expectations

and might be accompanied by

a sizable near-term decline in short-term rates.

On the other hand, many market

participants may take the view that such an easing is only temporary and, to that extent, declines in market rates would be limited.

Under this alternative,

the staff expects that the funds rate would have to begin rising later in the

-8winter in order to attain the FOMC's current longer-run monetary objectives and that the rate would be in the 7½-8 per cent area by summer.

This

alternative, therefore, would ultimately tend to exert considerable pressure on savings inflows at thrift institutions and banks. (12) of the 5 -6

Under alternative C, a rise in the funds rate to the mid-point

per cent range between now and the next meeting is contemplated.

Such a move would likely be accompanied by increases of point

to ¾ of a percentage

in other short-term rates and by smaller upward adjustments in longer-

term rates.

Net inflows of consumer-type time and savings deposits at banks

and thrift institutions would be expected to moderate somewhat from their recent pace over the next few weeks.

Later on, however, they would be subject

to less pressure than under alternatives A or B since the early tightening of money market conditions would tend to limit the extent to which interest rates would need to rise in the future in order to keep growth in the monetary aggregates on target, given the staff's GNP projection.

Proposed directive (13)

Shown below is a proposed operational paragraph for

consideration if the Committee wishes to continue formulating its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead.

No alternatives are presented for this formulation, in the expecta-

tion that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the longer-term targets and that at this meeting the Committee will not reconsider its present 5 to 7½ per cent target range for M1, with which all of the short-run operating alternatives discussed in the preceding sections are consistent. "Monetary Aggregate" Proposal usual] than more To implement this policy, while taking[DEL: account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. (14)

Should the Committee desire to formulate the directive

in terms of bank reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought.

These alternative "money

market" directives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below.

-10Alternative "Money Market" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking [DEL: usual] than more

account

of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT RATES ABOVE THOSE

CURRENTLY EXPECTED [DEL: monetary in growth moderate with consistent ahead]. months the over aggregates Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking[DEL: usual]account than more of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: achieve]MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED[DEL: monetary in growth moderate with consistent ahead]. months the over aggregates Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking[DEL: usual] than more

account

of developments in domestic and international financial markets,

the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT FIRMER bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT RATES BELOW THOSE CURRENTLY EXPECTED [DEL: monetary in growth moderate with consistent ahead]. months the over aggregates monetary in growth

-11(14)

In all four of the alternatives, it is proposed to delete the

words "more than usual" in the phrase, "while taking more than usual account of developments in domestic and international financial markets," since action by the Federal Government has somewhat eased New York City's nearterm financial problems.

CONFIE NTIAL(FR) CLASS g-FOMC

CHART 1

12/12/75

RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

8Y2% growth for Nov

J 1974

J 1975

0 1975

RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios

CHART 2

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1

12/12/75

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

.280

1JI

260

1975

CHART 3

12/12/75

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

RESERVES

BILLIONS Of DOLLARS 39

TOTAL

1975 1974 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios

12/12/75

CHART 4

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

PER CENT 1 14

INTEREST RATES Short-term

PER CENT

- 13

FUNDS

,L -

FR DISCOUNT RATE

1974

1975

1974

1975

1974

1875

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 1

BANK RESERVES

DEC. 12,

1975

(ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS)

RESERVES AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE

EQUIRED RESERVES

AGGREGATE RESERVES ___ _

_SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED .

Total Time

Gov't. and

NSA

Reserves

Required

Demand

Deposits

Interbank

NONBANK DEPOSITS

Total

Nonborrowed

Total

Private

MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1975--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEL.

32,424 32,345 32,486 (32,598)

32,242 32,247 32.498 132,812)

34,320 34,257 34,607 134,970)

33.923 34,067 34,547 (34.910)

34,129 34,050 A4,324 (34,781)

19.870 19,628 19,737 (19,852)

1.2 -2* 7.61

-0.2 -4.2 11.6)

1.2 -2.1 S 7.6)

11.7 1.4 -0.4)

-3.6 -1.1 2.2)

8.0 5.7 -2.0)

(

4.1 -2.8 9.7 16.0)

4.5 -14.6 6.7 7.0) (

12,365 12,510 12,466 (12,556)

1.894 1.912 2,121 f 2.373)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH OTRe

0.6 -2.6 ( 2 1)

(

-15.4 -8.7 ( 6.2)

QUARTERLY-AV 1975--2ND OTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH OTR.

-2.5 -1.2 0.1)

-3.7 -0.8 ( 2.6)

-2.8 -2.8 ( 5.0)

0.6 -2.9 5.2 4.1)

3.9 -2 .2 12.3 12.6)

-2.6 5.1 16.9 12.6)

4.7)

12.5)

14.8)

-17.0

(

-12.2 2.1)

MONTHLY 1975--SEPT. OCT* NOV. DEC. NOV.-DEC.

S12.9)

(

6.8)

-5.4 14.1 -4.2 8.7) 2.2)

WEEKLY LEVELS.-1MTLL1NS -----------"'

NOTE:

1975--NOV.

32,920 32,016 32,426 32,620

329969 31,905 32.541 32,569

34,970 33,842 34,707 34,833

34,903 33,802 34,648 34,759

34,106 33,830 349t22 34,621

19,628 19,496 199804 19938

12,428 12,509 12,437 12,470

2,049 1,825 29281 2,213

DEC.

3 10

32,635 32,531

32,748 32,389

34,924 34,637

34,657 34,607

34,595 34,463

19,827 19.832

12,480 12,'26

2,289 2,106

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF NOV. 18, 1975 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPO RANGE OF 4.5 TO 8.5 PERCENT FOR THE NOV.-DEC. PERIOD.

CONFIDENTIAL (F R ) CLASS II-FOMC

Table 2

MONETARY AGGREGATES

DEC.

12,

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad

Period

Proxy

Deposits

Nondeposit Sources of

Than CD's

CD's

Funds

Total

TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other

LEVELS-S8ILLIONS 361.7 364.5 368.6

440.7 445.7 450.0 (454.4)

(371.7)

6.7 3.3 12.4)

15.3 9.7 11.1)

-25.4 -23.8 1 18.2)

(

5.2 4.9 9.9)

13.3 13.2 9.9)

-24.0 -29.3 ( 10.5)

6.7 5.2 11.6 7.5)

(

9.1 13.6 11.6 11.7)

7.7 9.3 13.5 10.1)

16.9 33.4 1.5 19.21

9.6)

(

11.7)

(

11.9)

10.3)

294.7 294.0 297.0 (297.51

656.3 658.5 665.6 (669.2)

505.8 508.0 512.9 (516.11

(

11. 2.3 3.8)

(

13.4 6.3 7.9)

(

7.5 -1.3 8.1)

8.6 6.9 2.9)

11.2 10.4 6.7)

(

5.2 1.4 6.0)

(

2.0 -2*9 1,.2 2.01

(

4*8 4.0 1:.9 6.51

(

.7)

1975--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. PERCENT

U S Govt

(M2)

(Ml)

MDM1HLY

Adjusted Credit

3.1 2.9

3.5 (

26)

(

79.1 81.3 81.4 82.7)

(

7.0 T.9 8.2 8.4)

ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--ZND OTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH OTR. QUARTERLY-AV 1975--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH OTR. MONTHLY 1975--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

(

NOV.-OEC.

7.11)

WEEKLY LEV:LS-$BILLIONS 1975--OCT. NOV.

DEL.

292.5

658.0

507.2

2.4

446.7

365.5

81.3

7.9

5 12 19 26 P

296.1 298.0 296.4 296.7

662.0 665.7 664.9 666.8

510.2 513.1 513.5 514.1

3.0 3.9 3.9 3.3

446.9 448.7 449 451.6

365.9 367.7 368.5 370.0

81.0 80.9 81e2 81.5

8.0 7.9 8.6 8.5

3 P

299.1

669.1

516.2

3.4

452.3

369.9

82*4

8.0

. DATA NOTI: NOTt; DATA

S SHOWN IN SHOWN IN

. -

CURRENT PROJECtIONS. PARENThESES PARENTHESES ARE ARE CURRENT PROJECTlONS.

P P

*PRILIMINARY - PRELIMINARY -

1975

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II- FOMC DECEMBER 12, 1975 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted)

Bills 6 Accept.

Period

July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Total

Daily Average Reserve Effects Open Market A Member Other 4/ Operations Bank Borrowing Factors

6 In Reperve Catgories . Req. res. against available res. 5/ U.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) (9)

(10)

.Target available reserves 5/ (11)

(7)

(8)

5,064 -3,165

-50 211

-5,747 3,438

1 -96

-734 580

-170 215

-2,926 1,222 5,155

-832 -1,332 2,458

-10 -50 186

553 1,210 -2,432

167 -124 98

-456 -48 114

-325 -45 10

15 -2,637

445 -2,537

1,276 521

-204p -130p

-1,135p -327p

15 26p

-78p 38p

766 -1,098 527 -353 54 6p

(2)

(3)

(4)

197 -413

50 958

-97 -6

-3,357 -1,855

-3,207 -1,317

-2,302 -371 1,932

-274 822

-2 313 393

-623 1,007 2,008

147 -608

-709

284 -1

(1) 1975--May June

Open Market Operations Coupon Agency RP's Issues Issues Net 3/

(5)

(6)

265 278 353

Jan. 1975--Oct.

1 8 15 22 29

435 -240 -932 501 690

----

394 --284

-1,092 -5,806 1,548 3,527 793

-263 -6.047 616 4,028 1,767

2,798 -2,763 -1,935 935 2,418

186 -343 -65 60 -138

-2,157 1,922 2,462 -1,112 6 -2,15 p

61 -86 -65 236 -422p

Nov.

5 12 19 26

-85 -910 23 689

-355 354

-1 ----

-7,526 6,114 670 3,216

-7,612 5,204 1,048 4,259

407 -4,580 2,243 2,995

-28 -27 19 15

-104p 3 , 93p -1,301p -3,037p

20 p -150p 2 3 5p 5 -5 p

Dec.

3 10 17 24 31

-202 -204

-5,793 -1,482

-5,994 -1,686

-1,064 -2,536

-7 -37

1,207p 2,152p

-43p -63p

1/ 2/ 3/ 4/

p 6 -1,0 4p 636p 28 p 179p -358p

auctions. Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill Represents change in daily average level for preceeding period. Ifcludes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.A. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts.

5/ Reserves to support private nonbank deposits.

Target change

for November and December reflects the target adopted at the November 18, 1975 FOMC meeting.

Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. P - Preliminary.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II -- FOMC

DECEMBER 12, 1975 TABLE 4 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Coupons

Federal Agencies

Net Purchases 3/

Treasury Bills Net Change 2/

Period 1972 1973 1974

-490 7,232 1,280

1974--qtr.III

Within 1-year

87 207 320

789 579 797

5 - 10 539 500 434

Net

Over 10

Within 1-year

Total

167 129 196

1,582 1,415 1,747

46 120 439

Net Change

urchases 4/

Outright

5 - 10

Over 10

Total

Holdings Total 5/

592 400 1,665

253 244 659

168 101 318

1,059 864 3,082

1,631 9,273 6,303

-1,358 -46 -154

1 - 5

RP's Net6/

945

118

302

195

726

165

117

1,203

2,620

-986

Qtr.IV

-43

102

215

131

492

138

371

130

691

1,402

-238

1975--Qtr. I

-2,093

1,054

625

312

2,024

169

285

584

508

1,086

218

1,135

454

273

2,079

-2

3,076

230

-757

712

201

171

1,096

514

106

747

1,060

2,392

1975--June

-352

650

180

109

958

539

-1,855

July

-2,305

Qtr. II

Qtr. III

-2,304

-623

-369 1,917

13 --

150 562

64 137

47 124

274 822

41 23

229 285

49 57

34 29

353 394

216 3,148

1,007 2,008

97 -588

-267

156

-244

-709

58 -

141 --

71 --

14 --

284 -

430 99

15 -2,637

413

285

394

8 15 22

-239 -926 479

--- --

----

--- -

671

141

5 12

-93 -882

--- --- --- --

19 26

19 683

32 11

136 131

114 130

355 354

--- 3 10

-200 -200

--- --

Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 1975--Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

74 82 --

829

-1,092

-240 -932 502

-5,806 1,548 3,527

284

974

793

-85 910

-7,526 6,114

--- 378 1,043

670 3,216

--- --

-202 -204

17 24 31 Ij Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. 4/

Excludes maturity shifts,

rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts.

In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' System, ahd redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the

-5,793 -1,482

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC DECEMBER 12, 1975

TABLE 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Period

Bills

Coupon Issues (2)

(1)

Member Bank Reserve Positions Basic Reserve Deficit Borrowing at FRB**

Dealer Positions Corporate Bonds

Municipal Bonds

Excess** Reserves (5)

Total (6)

Seasonal

8 New York (8)

38 Others (9)

1974--High Low

3,678 -289

2,203 -309

577 -168

3,906 647

-7,870 -2,447

-12,826

1975--High Low

7,029 1,586

2,845 253

864 -50

871 18

-7,387 -1,757

-11,664

1974--Nov. Dec.

2,900

1,608 1,836

205 258

1,252 727

-6,322 -5,960

- 9,715

2,985

1975--Jan. Feb. Mar.

2,501 3,329 3.143

2,050 2,121 2,521

147

-5,378 -6,318 -5,732

- 9,744 - 9,533

195

398 147 96

Apr. May June

2,737 4,744 5,201

1,617 1,752 1,351

143 155 201

110 66 227

-4,079 -3,965 -5,821

-10,426 - 9,567

July Aug. Sept.

4,231 4,020 5,008

1,246 1,204 588

188 195 191

259 211 397

-5,546 -3,964 -3,551

- 9,896

Oct. Nov.

5,766 *4,571

1,480

207p 283p

188p 60p

-2,644 -4,488p

- 9,202

*2,073

1975--Oct.

4,657 5,812 7,029 6,037 5,085

462 846 1,576

462

581 238 173 22 3p 95 p

-2,575 -2,663 -3,475 -2,236 -2,206

- 7,207 - 9,923 -10,042 - 9,398 - 7,661

5 12 19 26

4,928 4,050 *4,765 *4,616

2,751 2,585 *2,022 *1,534

p 40p 59 p 74p

-2,497 -5,045 -3,746 -3,340

- 8,868 -11,632 -10,635 - 9,626

3 10 17 24 31

*4,748 *4,620

*1,281 * 875

67p 30p

- , 5 p -4,055p

Nov.

Dec.

-- i--

NOTE:

198

-24 313 2 9p 286p

1,835 1,456

864p 12p 185p

212p

~LIIIL

L-

3 4

- 6,046

- 7,207

-10,169

-10,302

- 9,344

- 9,966 - 9,015

-10,055p

- 9, 1p -11,664p

Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. *

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC DECEMBER 12, 1975 TABLE 6 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent)

S STreasury Bills Federal

Period 1974-High Low

1975--High Low 1974--Nov.

Funds (1)

90-Day

1-year

(2)

(3)

13.55 8.45

9.63 6.53

9.54

7.70

5.13

6.68 5.02

Short-Term CD's New Issue-NYC 90-119 Day Commercial

Paper (4)

Municipal Bond

Long-Term U.S. Government (20-yr. Constant

FNMA Auction

GNMA Guaranteed

Yield

Securities

Issue (7)

Offered

(6)

12.00 7.88

10.61 8.05

10.52 8.14

7.15 5.16

8.68

7.40

10.59 8.43

9.98 7.79

60-89 Day 190-119 Day (5)

Aaa Utility Recently New (5)

Buyer (9)

Maturity) (10)

111)

12.25 7.88

12.25

7.31

8.43 5.38

7.88 5.25

7.75

5.46

5.38

9.80 8.89

9.71 9.06

7.67 6.27

8.63 7.63

9.95 8.78

9.10 7.93

7.29 6.79

8.95 9.18

8.78 9.00

8.72 8.84

9.21 9.53

9.34

9.56

6.61 7.05

7.99 7.91

9.87 9.53

8.71 8.62

7.39 6.36 6.06

7.43 6.00 5.88

7.45 6.25 6.03

9.36 8.97 9.35

9.45 9.09 9.38

6.82 6.39 6.74

7.88 7.71 7.99

9.25 8.93 8.82

8.48 8.03 8.09

6.94 6.97 6.94

8.36 8.22 8.04

9.06 9.27 9.09

8.48 8.51 8.34

8.17 8.50 8.57

9.14 9.41 9.78

8.50 8.75 8.97

8.35 8.28

9.80 9.80

8.87 8.50

6.39

8.00

9.45

7.47

Dec.

S8.53

7.15

1975-Jan.

7.13 6.24

Mar.

5.54

6.26 5.50 5.49

6.27

Feb.

Apr.

5.49 5.22

6.40 5.91 5.86

6.11 5.70 5.67

5.85 5.44 5.34

6.03 5.63 5.51

9.67 9.63 9.20

9.66

5.55

5.61 5.23 5.34 6.13 6.44 6.42

6.64 7.16 7.20

6.32 6.59 6.79

6.05 6.31 6.44

6.25 6.63 6.81

9.42 9.45 9.68

9.43 9.49

Sept.

6.10 6.14 6.24

9.57

7.06 7.17 7.44

Oct. Nov.

5.82 5.22

5.96 5.48

6.48 6.07

6.35

6.08 5.69

6.45 6.03

9.45 9.20

9.43 9.26

7.39 7.43

7.00 6.75 6.38 6.00 6.13

9.72 9.60

9.70 9.56 9.41 9.30 9.33

8.59 8.43 8.34 8.26 8.22

9.10 9.11 9.40

9.24 9.24 9.30 9.25

8.19 8.22 8.34 8.35

9.32

9.46

9.34 9.27p

8.34 3 8. 9p

9.32

May June July

Aug.

5.56 5.70

5.78

9.65 9.33

Dec.

1975--Oct.

22 29

5.73

5.65

7.26 6.88 6.61 6.37 6.18

5.17 5.24 5.24 5.28

5.87 5.86 6.10 6.23

6.13

5.25 5.26

6.24 6.44

6.13 6.00

8 15

Nov.

12 19 26 Dec.

10 17

6.36 6.06

5.82

6.00

9.53 9.32 9.22

6.00

9.37p

9.95

9.65

9.33

24 31 Daily--Dec. 4

11 NOTE:

5.61 5.56

6.39 6.38

8.32 n.d.

For columns 7, B, and 10, Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 12 is a one-day quote for Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FRA/VA mortgages carrying the prevailing ceiling rate.

APPENDIX TABLE 1-A

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES RESERVESSSRESER Period

Non-

Total

orow borrowed

Total

AdJ

Loans

Support Pvt

Credit proxy

and Invest

Deposits

ANNUALLY: 1972 1973 1974

1975

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

CREDIT BANK MEASURES

Available

DEC. 12,

ments

4 5 6 7 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

10.8 7.9 ft.5

7*4 7.3 10.7

10.1 9.2 8.9

11.3 ] 10.4 10.2

14.6 13.5 9.2

8.7 h 1

10.9 .o0

0.3 21.1

12.6 9 .0

14.5 5.4

15.0 3.1

6:6 3.1

-3.6

-0.7

-2.1

5.3

5.1

b6.0

13.2 8.5 6.8

12.5 11.6 10.6

14.0 10.6 9.0

12.9 11.9 0.9

13.3 7.5

10.9 6.7

11.0 6.5

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF 1974 2ND HALF 1974 1ST

HALF

1975

7.9 5.4

7.5

9.9

6.Q

9.0

6.b

9.9

6.3 8.6 2.9

12.3 7.4

13.0

QUARTERLY: LTH OTRe

1974

3.6

1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RO OTR.

1975 1975 1975

-8.4 1.2 -2.2

0.9

4.2

-1.3 -0.2 -4.2

-4.7 0.6 .6

3.1 7.5 -1.3

5.7 4.6 3.6

a.a 11.2

36.4

-1.0

0.3

2.3

7.6 11.9 6.2

OUARTERLY-AV: QTR.

1074

1.4

27.5

2.6

3.5

0.2

3.9

7.3

6.6

6.8

1ST OTR. 2NO QTR. 3RD QTR.

1975 1975 1975

-0.9 -3.7 -0.8

11.6 -2.8 -2.8

-1.4 -2.5 -1.2

4.1 5.2 1.4

1.0 5.1 4.1

-0.3 8.6 0o.9

7.8 13.8 13.2

7.4 6.6 5.6

8.8 10.6 9.9

8.0 9.9 9.6

-1.4 15.4

19.0 34.8

-2.5 6.6

5.2 7.6

8.5 3.4

7.7 5.

5.7 11.4

6.2 10.8

5.8 9.4

7.9 -27.3 -5.6 8.2 -14.7 10.3 4.1 -14.6 3.9 -2.2 12.3

19.5 -19.0 -4.1 8.1 -13.2 4.7 1. -11.5

0.0 -8.6

3.6 -0.2 508 5.1 2.4 15.1 -1.2 -5.5 6.7 5.2 11.6

-11. 3.4

5.6 9.9 13.9 11.7 14.9 19.8 12.2 9.4 7.8 7.2 12.5

7.9 8.2 10.2 9.2 10.7 16.7 9.1 4.4 8.4 9.0 11.7

8.2 7.0 8.2 9.6 10.0 16.3 9.2 3.7 8.1 8.2 10.7

4TH

MONTHLY: 1974--NOV. DEC. 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. P NOV. P -

5*1 16.9

2.9 -10.3 9.1 -2.1 -6.1 0.6 -2.9 5.2

5.0 -9.4 4.7 4.3 7.9 3.4 5.1 5.1 2.0 6.8 2.0 6.0 10.5

11.0 3.4 11.3 18.7 2.0 Z.9 2.0 -2.9 12.2 "

NOTES:

6.7 6.1

6.1 4.2 7.0 14.3 4.1

-1.5 6.1 7.2 11.7

LOANS SOLD 10 BANKADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, MONTHLY WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. RLLATED INSTITUTIONS, WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUDATA ARE DAILY AVLRAGES. , M7,TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. PRELIMINARY

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

DEC.

12,

1975

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

Period Total

Non borr borrowed

Available to Support Pvt

Adl Credit proxy

Deposits

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

BANK CREDIT MEASURES

RESERVU RESERVES

Total Loans and Invest

ments

30,016 32,377

28,966 31,078

27,734 30,272

406.4 448.7

559.0 634.6

255.8 271.5

525.7 572.2

844.9 919.6

569.7 636.0

888.8 963.4

985.5 1095.4

1013.1 1133.6

1974--NOV. DEC.

34,693 35,138

33,441 34,411

32,79r, 32,075

491.2 494.3

697.4 691.9

2B3.6 284.4

611.6 613.5

976 .9 981.7

697.1 703.7

1062.4 1072.0

1185.8 1195.1

1227.2 1234.7

175--JAN. FEB. MAR.

35,368 34,564 34,404

34,970 34,417 34,298

32,974 32,739 32,588

495.8 495.7 498.1

694.6 697.1 701.7

281.6 282.4 285.0

614.8 619.1 62 .1

986.3 994.4 1005.9

707.6 711.2 714.8

1079.1 1086.5 1095.7

1203.3 1210.3 1218.6

1242.4 1249.5 1258.3

APR. MAY JUNE

34,640 34,216 34,510

34,530 34,150 34,e83

32,668 32,388 32,633

500.2 501.2 507.5

703.7 706.7 709.7

285.8 288.5 293.0

628.9 635.9 6.6.1

1015.7 1028.3 1045.3

717.3 721.5 730.1

1104.1 1113.9 1129.4

1228.3 1238.5 1255.3

1268.3 1278.7 1295.6

JULY AUG. SEPT.

34,628 34,20 34,320

34,326 33,996 33,923

32,575 32,409 32,424

505.3 503.0 505.8

710.9 714.e 716.1

293.5 294.2

£94.7

6,0.5 653.7 656.3

1055.9 1064.2 1071.1

732.6 731.7 735.4

1138.0 1142.2 1150.2

1264.0 1268.8 1277.4

1305.1 1308.3 1315.8

OCT. P NOV. P

34,257 34,607

34,067 34,547

32.345 32,486

508.0 512.9

719.7 726.0

294.0 297.0

658.5 665.6

1077.5 1088.7

739.8 747.0

1158.8 1170.1

1286.1 1297.6

1323.8 1334.3

22P 29P

33,945 34,312 34,153 34,320

33,706 34,139 33,920 34,225

32,087 32,500 32,051 32,518

506.9 507.9 508.7 507.2

293.4 294.7 294.3 292.5

656.3 659.1 659.0 658.0

737.9 740.5 740.0 739.3

NOV.

5P 12P 19P 26P

34,970 33,842 34,707 34,833

34,903 33,802 34,648 34,759

32,920 32,016 32,426 32.620

510.2 513.1 513.5 514.1

Z96.1 298.0 296.4 296.7

662.0 665.7 664.9 666.8

743.0 746.7 746.2 748.3

DEC.

34,924

34,857

3L.635

516.2

299.1

669.1

751.4

ANNUALL: 1972 1973

MONTHLY:

WEEKLY: 1975--OCT.

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA AKE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSIT . 1/ ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS nERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY

NOTES:

DEC.

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

12,

1975

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Demand

u Perod PerDeaposits

Tl Te

Mutual

ther Than

Savings Bank

6.9 5,.5 3.1

15.7 16.2 15.0

13.5 11.4 9.4

16.7 8.5 5.o

18.0

1 r:.0

13.9 11.8

Term

Savings Bonds

CD's

ANNUALLY: 1072 1973 1974

Short

Cred

Union CD's and S & L Shares y 4 5 6 7 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

Cu c Deposits SSharesi 2

Time

U S e S Gov't curities

Commercial per

31 .0 45 .3 41 .5

0.5 30.9 15.7

15.0 38.A

54 -0 22.1

19.2 11.2

12e. -5.4

3.t

SEMI-ANNUALLY: IST 2ND

HALF HALF

1974 1974.

5.2 1.0

18.6 10.5

10.9 7.6

5.9 '.1

LST

HALF

1975

5.0

8.5

14.6

16.3

4TH OTR.

1974

3.11

11.6

7.9

6.9

12.0

25.9

4.0

-34.2

1ST QTR. 2NO OTR. 3RD QTR.

1975 1975 197T

10.1 6,7 3.3

13.4 15.3 9.7

13.1 18.9 15.5

,0.4 2j.5 17.0

-2.2 -25'. -23 .8

-7.3 13.5 1.3

1.0 6.0 -16.9

3.0

-13.7

3.5

QUARTERLY:

-1.7 11.7 1.4

QUARTtRLY-AV: 47H OTR. 1ST OTR* 2ND QTR. 3RD OTR.

1974 ,

1975 1975 1975

1.7

9.7

8.2

4.9

10.o

-3.3

11.0 13.3 13.2

10.8 17,6 17.6

17.6 L2 5'

6.6

12.7 5.2 4.9

5.6 1.7

4.1 16.8

7.7 4.0

19.2 7.9 3.1 4.5 3.9 11.6 5.5 -4.6 9.1 13.6 11.6

14.9 12.6 IL.1 10.6 15. 19.7 13.3 8.1 7.7 9.3 13.5

8.6

15.2

e0.0

19.2 -24.0 -29.3

7.1 9 e

13.4 13.2

-9.7 67.4

9.9 11.5 17.6 18.4 1 7.1 20.2 18.9 14.7 12.3 11.6 11.2

17.5 17.2

31.9 -7.9 -30.0 -18.7 -39.4 -19.6 -28.5 -59.9 16.9 33.4 1.5

10 .

-9.4

-3.3 2.0 6.6

-20.2 8.1 -9.0

-2.0

-'5.3 -52.2

MONTHLY: 1974--NOV. DEC.

-17.2 1.7 10.7 3.9 11.1 19.8 1.1 1.1 2.2 -6.5 11 .

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. P OCT. NOV. P

NOTES: 1/ P -

_______

O0.d

Z0.',

28.1 15.7 19.4 18.8 18.5

RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARe INCLUDED COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGIN INING OCTOBER 1, 1970. GPUWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATEO MONTHLY AVFRAGE LEVELS PREVIOUS MONTH RhPOR1EU DATA. PRELIMINARY.

-9,

15.9 -15.7 -21.9 20.3 0.0 19.9 11.8 -11.7 3.9 -5.9 -3 .9

BEGINNING OCTOBER

16,

DERIV C 4Y AVERAGING

1969, END OF

-1".2 6.1 12.2 9.1 6.0 3.0 -3.0 -23.9 -30.5 -21.9 -28.6

AND

REQUIREMENTS ON

CURRENT MONTH

BANK-RELATED

AND END

DEC.

12,

1975

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time

Period

Currency

emand

Deposits

Mutual

Total

Other

Savings

Credit

Deposits

CD's

Vnion

CD's

and & L as35 5

Shares 6 6

7 7

8 8

Time

ank

Than

Short Term .S

Savings

Bonds

deposit

Gov't

SecuresJ Paery 9 1 9 10

Funds 11 11

Demand 12 12

4 4

56.9 61.6

190.9 209.9

313.8 304.5

269.9 300.7

297.5 322.8

21.6 24.6

43.9 63.8

57.0 59.9

39.8 52.1

27.o 38.3

1974--OCT. NOV. DEC.

66.* 67.4 67.9

215.2 216.5

412.1 413.5 419.3

325.9 328.0 329.1

336.2 338.2 340.8

i6.9 27.2 17.

86.2 85.5 90.3

62.3 62.6 62.8

60.9 60.8 60.3

43.4 41.4 39.6

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR.

68.2 66.7 69.4

213.4 213.7 215.6

446.0 448.8 429.9

333.2 336.7 340.1

343.o 346.9 352.0

L7.9

92.7 92.1 89.b

63.2 63.5 63.8

61.1 60.3 59.2

39.1 39.3 39e7

APR. MAY JUNE

69.5 70.e 71.1

216.3 218.3 241.9

431.5 432.9 437.1

343.1 347.4 353.1

357.4 362.5 368.6

30.b

88.4 85.5 84.1

64.1 64.4 64.7

60.2 60.2 61c2

40.0 40.2 40.3

JULY AUG. SEPT.

71.4 71.9 72.0

222.1 222.3 222.7

439.1 437.4 440.7

357.0 359.4 361.7

374.4 379.0 382.9

31.0 31.5 31.v

82.1 78d*0 79.1

65.1 65.4 65.8

61.8 61.2 61.4

40.2 39.4

P P

72.6 73.3

221.5 223.7

445.7 450.0

364.5 368.6

366.o 390.2

32.4 32.9

81.3

66.2 66.6

61.1 60.9

37.7 36.8

8 15 22P 29P

72.5 72.6 72.5 72.7

221.0 222.1 221.9 219.9

444.5 445.8 445.7 446.7

36,.9 364.4 3b4.6 365.5

81.6 81.4 81.0 81.3

5P I2P 19P 26P

72.8 73.3 73.4 73.4

223.3 224.7 223.0 223.3

446.9 448.7 449.8 451.6

365.9 367.7 368.5 370,0

61.0 80.9 81.2 81.5

73.9

225.s

452.3

369.9

82.4

U.S.

Non-

Commercia

ANNUALLY: 1972 1973

MONTHLY:

OCT. NOV.

216.2

28.3 28.9

29.4 29.9

b1.4

38.4

WEEKLY: 1975--OCT.

NOV.

DEC.

- -

NOTES: 1/ P -

- -

. -

RESERVE RGUIREMENIS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEbINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED 1970. COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGGINNING OCTOBER 1, ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING kNb OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. DATA. PRELIMINARY

Appendix Table III

Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate)

M 1973

9 10.4

3.4

6.8

7.3

9.1

8.8

11.3

7.3

10.6

8.6

10.5

9.1

III

0.6

5.5

5.6

7.8

5.2

7.5

8.7

5.0

10.8

8.9

9.8

7.9

6.1

6.3

8.8

8.9

8.8

9.0

5.8

9.3

9.6

8.9

9.1

7.3

7.9

8.3

6.8

7.6

III

3.5

4.2

6.0

3.8

5.2

3.9

6.7

6.2

6.9

5.8

5.2

7.2

7.7

6.8

7.1

7.6

5.8

9.9

7.8

15.7

QIV '72-QIV '73

IV QIV '73-QIV '74 1975

1974

0.8

-0.3

11.2

8.6

13.4

11.2

2.3

6.9

6.3

10.4

9.9

13.8 13.2

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

Appendix Table IV

Projected Federal Funds Rates Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1975 QIV

5-3/8

1976 QI

QII

QIII

Appendix Table V

Preliminary Revised Seasonal Factors on Demand Deposits and Effects on M 1 Growth Rates

January

Old factors

New factors

Effect on M growth (at1 1 annual rate)-

103.5

February

99.0

103.1 98.7

5.5 -0.4

March

99.0

-3.4

April May June

100.9 97.9 99.1

100.9 97.9 99.5

0.4 0

July August September October November December

99.55 98.4 99.2 98.8 100.5 103.1

99.8

98.4 99.2 99.6 100.6

103.3

1/ Includes effect of currency seasonals.

-4.1 2.1 2.0 -- m

1.5 -3.2 -1.2

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1975, December 15). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19751216

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19751216,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1975},
  month = {Dec},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19751216},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}