bluebooks · March 15, 1976

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing).

A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Content last modified 6/05/2009.

March 12, 1976

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

March 12, 1976

CLASS I - FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Recent Developments (1) Incoming data since the February FOMC meeting suggest

that M1 is growing at about a 6 per cent annual rate in the FebruaryMarch period, somewhat below the mid-point of its range.

Continuing

strength in time deposits other than large CD's (particularly in savings deposits) has sustained M2 growth.

Over February-March, M2 is now expected

to expand at a little more than an 11 per cent annual rate, near the midpoint of its range. (2) Growth in total bank loans has remained quite modest, as business demands for short-term credit have continued to be weak; business loans at banks declined at a 5.3 per cent annual rate in February.

Banks

have continued to allow CD's to run off in volume, as inflows of other time and savings deposits have remained large.

They have also added

further to their security holdings, particularly Treasury coupon issues in the 1-5 year maturity area. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over February-March Period Reserve and monetary aggregates

Ranges

Latest Estimates

5 to 9

6.1

9 to 13

11.4

-4½ to -½

-5.1

(Growth at SAAR. in per cent)

RPD

Avg. for statement

Memo: Federal funds rate

(per cent per annum)

4¼ to 5¼

week ending

Feb. 18 25

4.70 4.80

4.95

4.86

Mar.

-2(3)

Late in February, incoming data suggested that growth in

the aggregates was strengthening rather considerably.

The rate of

expansion in M2 appeared to be at the upper limit of the range specified by the Committee, and growth in M1 was above its mid-point.

Accordingly,

the Desk decided to shade its Federal funds rate target from 4¾ per cent to a 4¾--4-7/8 per cent range. However--with incoming information at the time pointing to a strengthening of economic activity--banks overreacted to the Desk's willingness to permit some additional firming in the money market, and for a while began bidding aggressively for Federal funds.

As a result, the effective funds rate was above 5 per cent on

several days of the statement week, and the average for the week rose to 4.95 per cent.

Subsequently, with additional data indicating that

growth in M1 and M2 over the February-March period might be well within the ranges, the Desk has operated to return the funds rate to the 4¾ per cent area. (4)

The firming in money market conditions at the end of

February, coupled with published data which at the time indicated a substantial strengthening in the monetary aggregates, resulted in a general advance of short-term rates of 1/8 to 1/2 a percentage point, with the largest increases in the bill area.

With the recent easing in

the funds market, however, short-term rates have dropped back, and are now only about 10-25 basis points above levels prevailing at the time of

the February FOMC meeting. Bond market rates showed little net change over the intermeeting period, as declines in late February--which carried

-3rates on some high quality corporate issues td their lowest levels in 2 years--were reversed in early March when short-term rates rose and the forward calendar of new issues increased.

Mortgage rates have edged down

slightly on balance recently, as deposit inflows at thrift institutions have remained strong. (5)

The table on the following page shows (in percentage

annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various time periods.

Calendar Year

1974

1975

Past

Six Months Feb. '76 over

Three Months Feb. '76 over

Aug.

'75

Nov.

'75

Past Month Feb. '76 over Jan.

'75

Total reserves

7.1

-. 4

-1.4

-5.2

-6.1

Nonborrowed reserves

9.2

1.3

-0.6

-5.4

-6.3

7.4

-1.1

-1.4

-3.2

-5.0

4.7

4.2

2.5

1.6

6.5

M 2 (Ml plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's)

7.2

8.3

8.1

9.3

14.3

M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions)

6.8

11.2

10.4

10.9

14.5

M4 (M2 plus CD's)

10.6

6.3

4.8

6.7

M (M3 plus CD's)

9.0

9.6

9.1

8.0

9.6

10.2

3.9

5.1

1.6

4,9

9.2

4.3

4.1

2.0

8.1

2,2

-.6

-2.1

Reserves available to support

private nonbank deposits Concepts of Money M1 (currency plus demand

deposits) 1/

Bank Credit Total member bank deposits

(bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions)

Large CD's

-3.8

Nonbank commercial paper .4 -.2 -.3 .5 .4 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. 2/ Based on month-end figures. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institu-

tions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures, Growth rates p reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (6)

Alternative shorter-run operating ranges for the monetary

aggregates and the Federal funds rate are summarized below for Committee consideration.

More detailed figures, as well as longer-run growth rates,

are shown in the tables on pp. 5a and 5b. Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

4 to 8

3½ to 7½

3 to 7

8 to 12

6¾ to 10¾

6 to 10

Ranges for March-April

RPD Federal funds rate (intermeeting range) (7)

-2 to 2

-2½ to 1½

-3 to 1

3¾ to 4¾

4¼ to 5¼

4¾ to 5¾

The Federal funds rate under alternative B is centered on

4¾ per cent, the funds rate level most recently sought by the Desk.

Given

such a funds rate, over the March-April period M1 is expected to expand in a 3½-7½ per cent annual rate range.

Tax refunds are likely to con-

tribute somewhat to growth in demand deposits in March.

As April progresses,

however, payments by the Treasury will probably be moderating and might be more than offset by the public's drawing down balances that had been built up by earlier refunds.

Thus,

1 growth during the March-April period is

expected to depend essentially on transactions demands associated with the projected relatively rapid expansion in nominal GNP.

Our expectation

for money growth over the next two months assumes some continued downward shift in money demand.

-5aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1976

February March April

296.9 298.3 299.9

296.9 298.3 299.6

296.9 298.3 299.4

677.0 681.8 688.3

677.0 681.8 687.0

677.0 681.8 686.2

1115.6 1125.3 1137.2

1115.6 1125.3 1135.5

1105.6 1125.4 1134.3

1975

QIV

294.7

294,7

660.2

1084.5

1976

QI QII

296.8 302.2 307.8 312.4

296.8

296,8 301.8 307.1 312.4

675.9 695.4 712.0 725.2

675.9 693.3 710.1 724.7

675.9 692.2 707.9 723.8

1114.4 1149,7 1179.7 1203.9

1114.4 1146.5 1176.6 1202.8

1114.4

8.5 7.7

10.4 12.7

10.4 10.9

10.4

9,5 10,3 9.7 8,2

9.5

9.6 9.1 9.0

11.0 12.7 10.4 8.2

11.0 11.5 10.5 8.9

11,0 10.7 9.9 9.8

10.0 9.1

9.7 9.1

12.0 9.4

11.4 9.8

11.0 10.0

9.6

11.0

10.9

10.8

QIII QIV

301.9

307.4 312.4

1144.3

1172.6 1201,3

Growth Rates Monthly: 1976

March April

5.7 6.4

5.7 4.4

8.5 11.4

8.5 9.1

9.4

Quarterly Average: QI QII QIII QIV

2,9 7.3 7.4 6.0

2.9 6.9 7.3 6.5

2,9 6.7 7.0 6.9

9.5 11.5 9.5

QIV '75-QII '76 QII '76-QIV '76

5.1 6.8

4.9 7.0

4.8 7.0

10,7

QIV '75-QIV '76

6.0

1976

Committee Longer-run Growth Ranges QIV '75-QIV '76

4% to 74

7.4

8.6 9.8

9.8

74 to 10

9 to 12

-5bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

February March April

752.4 753.9 759.1

752.4 753.8 758.6

752.4 758.3

1191.0 1197.4 1207.9

1191.0 1197.4 1207.1

1191.0 1197.4 1206.3

516.2 515.0 517.8

516.2 515.0 517.7

516.2 515.0 517.6

1975

QIV

742.1

1166.3

512.2

1976

QI QII QIII QIV

751.5 765.9 783.7 799.1

751.5 764.7 782.7 798.8

751.5 764.2 781.3 798.1

1190.0 1220.2 1251.5 1277.8

1190.0 1217.9 1249.2 1276.9

1190.0 1216.3 1246.0 1275.5

515.1 522.0 534.3 543.9

515.1 521.5 533.8 543.7

515.1 521.3 533.1 543.2

1976

753.8

Growth Rates Monthly: 1976

March April

2.4 8.3

2.2 6.8

6.4 8.8

6.4 10.5

-2.8 6.5

-2.8 6.3

-2.8 6.1

Quarterly Averages:

1976

8.1

QIV

5.1 7.7 9,3 7.9

5.1 7.0 9.4 8.2

5.1 6.8 9.0 8.6

QIV '75-QII '76 QII '76-QIV '76

6.4 8.7

6.1 8.9

6.0 8.9

9.2 9.4

QIV '75-QIV '76

7.7

7.6

7.5

9.6

QII QIII

10.2

10.3 8.4

8.1 9.4 10.3 8.9

2.3 5.4 9.4 7.2

2.3 5.0 9.4 7.4

2.3 4.8 9.1 7.6

8.8 9.7

3.8 8.4

3.6 8.5

3.6 8.4

6.2

6.1

9.4

(8) M 2 under alternativeB is projected to rise in a 6-10 per cent annual rate range in the March-April period. deposits

Growth in time

other than money market CD's is expected to slow from its

exceptional January-February pace, when inflows were being influenced by the initial shift of funds in response to the decline in short-term market rates to levels near or below 5 per cent.

Nevertheless, such

deposits will probably grow at a still fairly substantial 11¼ per cent annual rate over the March-April period.

Short-term rates under alterna-

tive B would be expected to change little between now and the next Committee meeting, although they could rise a bit toward the end of the period, reflecting mid-April tax date pressures. (9) The staff continues to believe that interest rates will have to rise later in the year--perhaps beginning in late spring--if a 6 per cent rate of growth in M1 from QIV '75 to QIV '76 is to be achieved. Under alternative B, we have assumed that the Federal funds rate will average about 6½ per cent in the fourth quarter of 19 7 6 .1/This represents somewhat less upward rate pressure than assumed in the previous blue book, and reflects the need for a little more expansion in M1 over the last three quarters of the year to make up for the fact that growth in the first quarter of 1976 is now expected to be somewhat slower than anticipated a month ago.

Under these assumptions, M2 growth over the

period from QIV '75 to QIV '76 would be about 9¾ per cent--somewhat above the mid-point of the Committee's one-year range. (10)

Alternatives A and C call for an easing and tightening

of the money market, respectively, in the period before the next 1/

See appendix table IV for long-run projections of the Federal funds rate.

-7Committee meeting.

Through the summer months, alternative A would

encourage somewhat more growth in M1 and M2, and alternative C less.than would alternative B. But if M1 and M 2 are to grow over the year. from QIV '75 to QIV '76 at rates near the mid-points of their respective oneyear ranges, the near-term declines in interest rates anticipated under alternative A would be short-lived, and rates would begin rising, perhaps by late spring.

We have assumed that under alternative A the funds rate

would average about 6¾ per cent in the fourth quarter of 1976.

On the

other hand, the greater near-term restraint of alternative C would mean that more monetary expansion would be required later in 1976 to achieve the Committee's longer-run targets.

Under this alternative, interest rates

would be likely to cease rising in late summer, with the funds rate leveling out at around 6 per cent. (11)

The staff expects that under all three alternatives

business credit demands at banks would remain weak over the next month or two and that the bank credit proxy will show relatively little growth. Later in the year, as business working capital needs expand, business loan demand on banks will probably pick up. raise funds in the CD market.

In response, banks may begin to

However, the need to do so may be small

since we expect that flows into other deposits--though slowing somewhat as the year progresses in reflection of rising market interest rates--will be generally sufficient to finance demands on banks. (12)

The forward calendar for corporate and municipal bonds

appears to be relatively substantial over the next few weeks.

In addition,

-8the Treasury may raise some cash through an offering of intermediateor longer-term coupon issues.

Nevertheless, if the money market remains

stable--as is assumed under alternative B--long-term interest rates are likely to remain around current levels in view of the strong institutional investor interest in bonds that has developed since the beginning of the year.

A tightening of the money market, as contemplated under alternative

C, would probably cause some upward adjustment in long rates.

Such a near-

term adjustment may be limited, however, if borrowers postpone scheduled issues--as they may, since many of the issues now on the calendar had been accelerated to take advantage of propitious market circumstances.

Proposed directive (13)

Given below is a proposed operational paragraph if the

Committee wishes to formulate its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead.

No alternatives are pre-

sented for this formulation, in the expectation that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the longer-term targets and that at this meeting the Committee will not reconsider those targets.

"Monetary aggregates" proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to[DEL: maintain

prevailing]ACHIEVE bank reserve and money market condi-

tions CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES over , provided that monetary aggregates the period [DEL:immediately] ahead[DEL: appearto (14)

be growing at about the rates

currentlyexpected.]

Should the Committee desire to continue placing main

emphasis on bank reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought.

Three alterna-

tive "money market" directives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below. Alternative "money market" proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to[DEL: maintain prevailing]ACHIEVE SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money

-10-

market conditions over the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the rates currently expected.

Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks

to maintain prevailing bank reserve and money market conditions over the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the rates currently expected. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: maintain prevailing]ACHIEVE SOMEWHAT FIMER bank reserve and money market conditions over the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the rates currently expected.

CHART 1

CONFIDENTIALIFR) CLASS I-FOMC

3/12/76

RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1 35

-V/2%

growth for Feb.-Mar.

-4V 2 % growth

S 1974

J 1975

M 1976

RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios.

CHART 2

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASSII-FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUP 'PLY M1

3/12/76

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320

305

300 9% growth for Feb.-Mar.

300

280 (t3/3/76)

295

5%growth

PPLY M2 700

290

sea -680

I -------

I I--

690

660 13% growth for Feb.-Mar.

680

640

670

620 9% growth

- so600

1974

1975

1976

- 660

1975

1976

CHART 3

3/12/76

MONETARY AGGREGATES USTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-540

-520

500

- 480

I-

RESERVES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 39

TOTAL

- 35

NONBORROWED 33

- 31

1974

1975

1976

Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios

CHART 4

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

PER CENT 8

INTEREST RATES Short-term

PERCENT -1

INTEREST RATES Long-term

PER CENT

F-

F.R. DISCOUNT RATE

EURO-DOLLARS 3-MONTH -

PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 4-6 MONTH

FUNDS RATE

1975

1976

1975

1976

1975

1976

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS IIFOMC

TABLE 1

BANK RESERVES

MAR. 12, 1976

(ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) AGGREGATE RESERVES aDJUSTED

RESERVES AVAILABLE RESERVES AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE FOR PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS

Period

_-SA

Total Reserves

NSA NA

REQUIRED RESERVES ADJUSTED_____

SEASONALLY

______SEASONALLY

Total Required

Nonborrowed Reserves

Private Demand

Total Time Deposits

Gov't. and Interbank

MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1975--kC. 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR.

32t231 32,100 31t965 131,827)

32,558 33,170 31,982 131,570)

34,539 34,245 34,070 133,919)

34,409 34,167 33,969 133,8601

34,272 34,005 33,831 (33 705)

19,756 19,732 19,822 (19,803)

12,208 12.128 11,904 (11.810)

2,308 2,145 2,105 ( 2,092)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. QTR. 1976-~15

-1.5 0.4 (

-5.0)

(

-0.8 -0.8 -2.6)

-0.8 1.4 -7.2)

0.1 0.6 -4.1)

3.4 -3.4 1.0)

(

6.2 -2.1 0.7)

-0.7 0.5 -6.6)

(

-0.1 -0.1 -3.9)

(

-1.6 -U.4 -6.3 -4.6)

(

1.4 -9.3 -6.1 -4.5)

(

-5.41

-5.3)

-2.8 4.5 -6.4)

-1.9 2.7 -3.5)

-5.7)

(

-9.0 4.1 -13.0)

(

-12.2 -0.6 -7.3)

(

6.3 -7.9 -22.2 -9.5)

(

-15.7)

QUARTERLY-AV 1975--3RO QTR. 4TM QTR. 1976--1ST OTR. MONTHLY 1975--OEC. 1976--JAN . FEB. MAR.

-5.0 -5.2)

0.8 -10.2 -6.1 1 -5.3)

(

-5.1)

(

0.3

-4.9

FEB.-MAR.

-2.5

-1.5 5.5 -1.2) 2.2)

WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS

1976-FEB.

MAR.

NOTE:

4 11 18 25

32.021 31,730 32,307 31,716

32,660 31,742 3Z2363 31,523

34,459 33,775 34,273 33,781

34,404 33,724 34,217 33,633

34,042 33,725 33,703 33,887

19,645 19 767 19,839 19,932

11,959 11,913 11,898 11,890

2,438 2,045 1,966 2,065

3 10

32,159 31v652

31,861 31,132

34,346 33,826

34,261 33,779

33,929 33,732

19,876 19,690

11,866 11,868

2,186 2,174

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF FEB. 18, RANGE OF -4.5 TO -0.5 PERCENT FOR THE FEB.-MAR. PERIOD.

IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. 1976 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD

Table 2

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES

MAR.

12,

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad

Period

MONTHLY

U.S. Govt.

TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other

(Ml)

(M2)

Proxy

Deposits

Total

Than CD's

CD's

Nondeposit Sources of Funds

LFVELS-SBILLIbNS Z95.0 295.3 96." (298.3)

1975--DEC. 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. PERCENT

Adjusted Credit

663.3 660.0 677.0 (681.71

514.4 14.1 516.2 (515.0)

(

451.2 452.9 455.5 (455.5)

.. 0 2.6 2.6 .21

368.3 373.7 380.1 (383.4)

(

82.9 79.2 75.4 72.1)

(

8.4 7.9 8.3 8.3)

ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975-3RD QT0. 4TH QTR. 1976--1S OTR .

(

..6 1.9 .*)

(

7.1 2.5 2.1)

(

-2.8 1.2 6.5 .7)

(

0.1)

-0.8 7.0 0.5)

(

6.5 t.4 11.1)

(

1C.1 6.1 9.. )

1.4 6.0 2.2)

(

3.1 10. 14.2 8.3) 11.4)

(

2.6 11.8 3.8

(

8.9 10.1 16.4)

-23.8 19.2 -52.1)

(

12.7 Q. 14.9)

(

16.1 -53.6 -57.6 ( -52.5) ( -53.8)

QUAkTERLY-AV 175--3R0 )QTR. 4TH.OTR. 1976--IST QTR.

(

4.7 9.) 6.5)

(

0.7 -0.7 4.9 -2.8)

(

9.7 4.5 6.9 0.01

7.9 17.6 20.6 10.4)

(

1.1)

(

3.41

(

15.6)

-27.5 9.5 -30.8)

MONTHLY 1975--DEC. 1976--JAN. FEP. MAR. FER.-MAR.

WEEKLY LEVEL5-SBILLIGNS 1Q76--JAN. 14 21 28

295.0 295.3 294.6

668.0 669.3 670.7

514.1 515.3 513.68

3.3.3 .2

452.B 452.6 453.6

372.9 374.0 376.2

79.9 78.6 77.4

4 11 18 25

2C6.4 297.1 97.9 795.9

674.3 676.7 678..3 676.8

513.9 516.4 .17.0 515.6

2.2 2.5 2.8 3.1

454.6 455.2 455.8 455."

377.9 379.4 380.4 381.0

76.7 75.8 75.4 74.8

7.7 8.1 P.1

296.7

678.0

514.2

2.2

455.3

381.3

74.0

7.8

FEE.

HAR.

3 P

N~~lL: SHOWN DATA IN PAR6NT)IESES~ *5 URN NOIEt DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT

RJCIOS PROJECTIONS.

RLMNR - PPELIMINARY

7.6

8.0 7.7

8.0

1976

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MARCH 12, 1976 TABLE 3

RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) ___

___

Onen Market Oerations 1/ - ;I-------; -;;;;RF's Bills Agency Coupon T sues &A nt Tooues Net '/ A -cc I coupon I IsusZ% sue (4) (1) Fer d

P r nA

1975--Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar.

-371 1,932

1,007

147

-608

15 -2,637

1,799

1,219

-1,590

2,008

3,597

1,205

-3,129

-404

-2,022 803

Tntal

(5)

Effects Daily Average Reserve ---L-L-Other a Member Open Market O

atlnonstn

Bank

norrotwin

-1,332 2,458

445 -2,537 3,315

1,276 521

2,567 -1,101

942 1,631

-2,426

-257 -3,515 773

1,165

Reserve

Cat

Req. res. against U.S.G. and interb.

Available res. 5 (6)+(7)+(8)-(9)

-50

1,210

186

-2,432

Feb.

Mar.

1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/

7 14 21 28

-1,386 1 192

4 11 18 25 3 10 17 24 31

6,504

-583 561 6,696

-190 336 820 37

-3,534 -2,969 2,210 4,014

-3,536 -2,633 3,031 4,389

110

-3,314

-2,907 -9,653

-711

-8,835

2,551

1,605 -4,051 2,656 2,428

-93 -4,051

-205

-130 66 - 48p -3p

-1,150 -387

-813

114

15 1 79

-94 3 339 46 3p -1,423p

-295p -3,224p

137 73 -1 p

-186 -22 108 -94

503 3,788 -490 -3,578 p

-18 -13 180 -371

78 264 211 -750

-1 -6 5 92

-1,607

246 -382 2 13p -100p

-249 -908p

-64 -37

92p lip

338p -733p

2,767 -1,889p

-3,460p 5 87

p 3,366p

559p -840p

Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. Represents change in daily average level for preceeding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for February and March reflects the target adopted at the February 18, 1976 FOMC meeting. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. P - Preliminary.

Available reserves

-48

Apr. 1976--Jan.

^ ^.j,^^ g. , A Taro~t-

(8)

(6)

1,222 5,155

4/ Factors

265 280 355 960 -1,110 -90

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MARCH 12, 1976 TABLE

NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted)

1972 1973 1974

-490 7,232 1,280

87 207 320

789 579 797

539 500 434

167 129 196

1,582 1,415 1,747

46 120 439

592 400 1,665

253 244 659

168 101 318

1,059 864 3,082

1,631 9,273 6,303

-1,358 -46 -154

1975

-468

337

3,284

1,510

1,070

6,202

191

824

460

138

1,613

7,267

1,272

-43

102

215

131

492

138

371

130

691

1,402

-238

1974--Qtr. IV

I II III IV

1975--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. 1975--Sept.

-2,093 1,086

1,054 1,135

2,024 2,079

712 385

1,096 1,006

-757

1,294 -

1,917

562

137

124

822

285

394

508 3,076 1,060 2,626

230 2,392 -1,403

3,148

2,008

Oct. Nov. Dec.

430

-588 1,784

99 2,096

15 -2,637 1,219

1976--Jan.

-1,596

Feb.

1,275

240 297

-1,030 2,029

3,597 -3,129

-404 ---1,386 ---560

-2,022

37 40

110 366

100 63

73 59

321 528

26 76

139 149

47 61

27 11

Mar. 1976--Jan. 7 14 21 28

-404 -1,380

47 188

Feb. 4 11 18 25

Mar. 3 10 17 24 31

-189

177

-107

189

339

-107 ----

149

240

803

S -

192

6,504

-1 336 820 376

-3,534

SSS-

11 .

297

407 -818 --

-2,969 2,210 4,014

-3,314 -8,835

1/ Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes hanges in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MARCH 12, TABLE

1976

SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars)

U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Bills

Period

(1)

~.~

___ ouporx Issues I (2)

Dealer Positions Corporate Municipal n --11

on ... s

Member Bank Reserve Positions Basic Reserve Deticit I Borrowing at FRB** Excess** C e~II es

(5)

Totl I

I8NwYr38Ohr I r-r (6)

8 Now Ynrk (8)

38 Onthrs I

(9)

1974--High Low

3,678 -289

2,203 -309

577 -168

3,906 647

-7,870 -2,447

-12,826

1975--High Low

7,029 1,586

2,845 253

864 -50

871 18

-7,387 -1,757

-11,632

1975--Feb. Mar.

3,329 3,143

2,121 2,521

198 195

147 96

-6,318 -5,732

- 9,533

Apr. May June

2,737 4,744 5,201

1,617 1,752 1,351

143 155 201

110 66 227

-4,079 -3,965 -5,821

-10,426

July Aug. Sept.

4,231 4,020 5,008

1,246 1,204 588

188 195 191

259 211 397

-5,546 -3,964 -3,551

- 9,896 - 9,966 - 9,015

Oct.

5,766 4,751 4,822

1,480 2,073 1,075

161 251 289p

189 60 131p

-2,644 -3,812 -2,811

- 9,202

4,959 *5,214

1,220 *1,051

232 241p

79 81p

1976--Jan. 7 14 21 28

4,607 6,173 4,891 4,294

1,144 1,208 1,637 1,005

324 163 197 165

67 45 153 58

-3,106 -5,523 -3,433 -2,625

Feb. 4 11 18 25

5,020 5,183 *5,961 *4,789

828 1,684 * 903 * 833

417 123 570p -106p

57 51 56p 148p

-2,367 -5,662 -3,673 -3,720

- 9,018

Nov.

Dec. 1976--Jan. Feb.

-3,581 -4,296p

- 6,046

7,207

-10,302

- 9,567 - 9,344

-10,159 -10,418 - 9,746

-10,108p

Mar.

NOTE:

3 10 17 24 31

*4,703 *5,984

* *

581 911

417p 91p

8 p 47p

-4,362p -6,568p

8,478

-10,607 -10,712 - 9,413

-10,889 -10,642 - 9,550 - 9,343p

-10,464p

Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. *

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

**Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II - FOMC MARCH 12, 1976 TABLE 6

SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent) S

STreas

ills

Short-Term

90-119 Day

Lon-Term

CD's New Issua-NYC

New

Commercial

Federal

Aaa Utility

Municipal

Recently

Bond Buyer

U.S. Govt. (20yr. Constant

FNMA

GNMA

Auction

Guaranteed

Period

Funds

90-Day

1-year

60-89 Day

90-119 Day

Issue

Offered

Yield

Securities

1974--High Low

(1) 13.55 8.45

(2) 9,63 6.53

(3) 9.54 6.39

(4) 12.25 7.88

(5) 12.25 8.00

(6) 12.00 7.88

(7) 10.61 8.05

(8) 10.52 8.14

(9) 7.15 5.16

(10) 8.68 7.40

(11) 10.59 8.43

(12) 9.98 7.79

1975--High Low

7.70 5.13

6.68 5.02

7.31 5,46

8.43 5.38

7.88 5.25

7.75 5.38

9.80 8.89

9.71 9.06

7.67 6.27

8.63 7.63

9.95 8.78

9.10 7.93

1975--Feb. Mar.

6.24 5.54

5.50 5.49

5.56 5.70

6.36 6.06

6.00 5.88

6.25 6.03

8.97 9.35

9.09 9.38

6.39 6.74

7.71 7.99

8.93 8.82

8.03 8.09

Apr. May June

5.49 5.22 5.55

5.61 5.23 5.34

6.40 5.91 5.86

6.11 5.70 5.67

5.85 5.44 5.34

6.03 5.63 5.51

9.67 9.63 9.25

9.66 9.65 9.33

6.94 6.97 6.94

8.36 8.22 8.04

9.06 9.27 9.09

8.48 8.51 8.34

July Aug. Sept.

6.10 6.14 6.24

6.13 6.44 6.42

6.64 7.16 7,20

6.32 6.59 6.79

6.05 6.31 6.44

6.25 6.63 6.81

9.41 9.46 9.68

9.43 9.49 9.57

7.06 7.17 7.44

8.17 8.50 8.57

9.14 9.41 9.78

8.50 8.75 8.97

Oct. Nov. Dec.

5.82 5.22 5.20

5.96 5.48 5.44

6.48 6.07 6.16

6.35 5.78 5.88

6.08 5.69 5.65

6.45 6.03 5.83

9.45 9.20 9.36

9.43 9.26 9.23

7.39 7.43 7.31

8.35 8.28 8.23

9.80 9.80 9.31

8.87 8.50 8.56

1976--Jan. Feb. Mar.

4.87 4.77

4.87 4.88

5.44 5.53

5.15 5.13

4.91 4.84

5,03 5.06

8.70 8.63

8.79 8.63

7.07 6.94

8.01 8.03

9.10 9.06

8.37 8.29

1976--Jan. 7 14 21 28

5.12 4.76 4.81 4.80

5.17 4.88 4.82 4.73

5.69 5.42 5.41 5.35

5.44 5.15 5.13 5.03

5.13 4.88 4.88 4.75

5.25 5.00 5.00 4.88

8.88 8.64 8.62 8.66

8.94 8.68 8.69 8.68

7.13 7.09 7.01 6.85

7.99 7.97 8.03 8.02

-9.13 9.07

8.45 8.34 8.38 8.31

Feb. 4 11 18 25

4.82 4.73 4.70 4.80

4.82 4.87 4.88 4.86

5.36 5.48 5.56 5.57

5.00 5.13 5.21 5.15

4.75 4.88 4.88 4.88

4,88 5.13 5.13 5.13

8.68 -8.64 8.58.

8.62 8.68 8.67 8.56

6.86 6.95 6.97 6.98

8.04r 8.10r 8.06 7.96r

-9.07 9.04

8.27 8.31 8.31 8.25

Mar. 3 10 17 24

4.95 4.86

5.11 5.08

5.87 5.92

5.20 5.25

5.13 5.13

5.38 5.25

8.72 8 .64p

8.72 8.66p

7.04 6.98

8,07r 8.00p

9.06

8.31 8.31

4.95

5.22

6.05

5.25

4.81p

4.99

5.91

5.25

Paper

Maturity)

31 Daily--Mar. 4 11

8.08-

n.a.

NOTE: Weekly data for columns I to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wedneqday quotes. For columns 7 and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 8 and 9 are one-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 12 is a one-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the prevailing ceiling rate.

APPENDIX TABLE 1-A

MAR. 12,

1976

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES RESERVES Period

Nto ood

Total

borrowed

SBANK Available Support Pvt

Deposits 3

ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975

6.7 7.1 -0.4

6.0 9.2 1.3

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

CREDIT MEASURES Adi Credit proxy

Total Loans and

Invest

ments 6 4 5 (Per cent annual rates of

growth)

8.4 7.4 -1.1

10.5 10.2 3.9

13.5 9.2 4.3

6.0 4.7 4.2

8.8 7.2 8.3

8.8 6.8 11.2

11.6 10.6 6.3

5.7

6.1

3.1

3.9

6.1

6.2

7.8

7.4

-1.7 -0.6

4.5 3.1

5.1 3.4

5.6 2.7

9.8 6.5

11.9 9.9

6.9 5.4

9.9 9.0

3.7 5.3 -0.8 7.0

5.7 4.6 3.6 3.1

1.4 9.7 3.6 1.9

6.9 12.5 6.5 6.4

9.0 14.5 10.7 8.9

6.0 7.7 3.0 7.8

8.3 11.3 8.1 9.6

8.2 10.6 8.6 11.3

1.0 5.1 4.1 4.7

0.6 7.4 7.1 2.5

5.6 10.2 10,1 6.1

7.5 12.6 13.3 9.2

7.4 5.6 5.7 6.5

8.5 9.4 10.1 9.2

6.8 8.5 10.7 10.1

-5.1 0.0 9.4 3.4 11.4 14.2 3.7 5.3 1.6 -0.8 9.4 -2.8

4.1 7.2 9.3 7.1 13.4 16.5 9.5 5.7 4.2 5.1 10.8 3.1

6.2 8.9 11.7 10.8 14.9 17.4 13.2 10,3 8.5 8.4 11.6 6.4

8.7 4.9 4.4 3.9 6.2 12.9 5.1 -0.5 4.3 7.7 11.1 4.5

9.1 7.3 8.2 8.3 10.1 15.0 10.0 5.9 8.3 9.7 11.6 7.2

10.9 6.7 7.0 7.2 9.4 14.9 11.9 7.0 6.5 11.0 14.6 7.9

1.2 6.5

10.3 14.3

11.5 14.5

3.2 6.7

6.9 9.6

7.0 9.3

10.6 9,0 9.6

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF

1974

4.2

19.3

1ST HALF 2ND HALF

1975 1975

-1.2 0.3

1.7 0.9

-3.6 1.3 -0.8 1.4

3.6 -0.1 -2.8 4.5

-3.1 -0.2 -1.5 0.4

-0.1 -1.4 0.1 0.6

12.5 -0.4 -1.9 2.7

0.4 -2.2 -0.8 -0.8

5.5 3.6 1.4 6.0

1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

-0.5 -9.0 -1.4 3.5 -11.6 12.2 -3.2 -3.1 3.9 -6.3 9.7 0.8

11.1 -0.4 0.0 3.4 -10.1 6.5 -5.8 0.0 -2.6 0.8 14.3 -1.6

1.6 -6.2 -4.8 2.2 -8.1 5.4 -0.3 -4.3 0.3 -5.1 6.0 0.3

5.8 -0.7 6.0 2.2 1.0 12.7 -3.3 -4.3 5.2 5.9 14.4 0.7

4.7 4.3 7.9 3.4 5.1 5.1 2.0 6.8 2.0 6.0 10.5 -7.3

1976--JAN. FEB. P

-10.2 -6.1

-8.4 -6.3

-4.9 -5.0

-0.7 4.9

5.3 8.1

QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH

QTR. QTR. QTR. QTR.

1975 1975 1975 1975

QUARTERLY-AV: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH

QTR. QTR. QTR. QTR.

1975 1975 1975 1975

MONTHLY:

NOTES:

LOANS SOLD TO BANKADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, MONTHLY WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. RELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUDATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. DEPOSITS. INSTITUTION AND THRIFT INVESTMENTS AND , M7,TOTAL LOANS BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. PRELIMINARY

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

MAR.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BANK CREDIT MEASURES

RESERVES! Period Total

Nto Non borrowed

Available Support Pvt. Deposits 3

Adj Credit proxy 4

Total Loans and Investments 5

12,

1976

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

1132.0 1232.7 1350.8

ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975

32,390 34,693 34,539

31,092 33,966 34,409

30,335 32,591 32,231

449.4 495.3 514.4

634.6 691.9 721.6

270.5 283.1 295.0

571.4 612.4 663.3

919.5 981.6 1091.8

634.9 702.2 746.2

1071.4

1174.7

1093.7 1191.0 1310.3

1975--FEB. MAR.

34,418 34,377

34,270 34,271

32,466 32,337

497.4 499.9

697.1 701.7

281.9 284.1

618.2 623.0

994.0 1003.7

710.2 712.8

1086.1 1093.5

1208.5 1215.5

1251.3 1259.6

APR. MAY JUNE

34,477 34,143 34,490

34,367 34,077 34,263

32,396 32,176 32,320

500.8 501.2 506.5

703.7 706.7 709.7

284.9 287.6 291.0

626.7 633.7 642.4

1012.7 1025.3 1040.2

715.1 718.8 726.5

1101.1 1110.4 1124.3

1222.8 1232.4 1247.7

1267.2 1276.3 1290.7

JULY AUG. SEPT.

34,399 34,310 34,421

34098 34,099 34,024

32,311 32,194 32,201

505.1 503.3 505.5

710.9 714.9 716.1

291.9 293.2 293.6

647.5 650.6 652.9

1051.6 1060.6 1068.1

729.6 729.3 731.9

1133.7 1139.3 1147.2

1260.1 1267.5 1274.4

1302.1 1308.6 1314.8

OCT. NOV. DEC.

34,239 34,515 34,539

34,048 34,455 34,409

32,063 32,224 32,231

508.0 514.1 514.4

719.7 726.0 721.6

293.4 295.7 295.0

655.7 661.6 663.3

1075.6 1086.0 1091.8

736.6 743.4 746.2

1156.5 1167.7 1174.7

1286.1 1301.7 1310.3

1326.2 1342.0 1350.8

34,245 34,070

34,167 33,989

32,100 31,965

514.1 516.2

724.8 729.7

295.3 296.9

669.0 677.0

1102.3 1115.6

748.2 752.4

1181.5 1191.0

1317.9 1328.1

1358.3 1368.5

14 21 28

34,184 34,391 34,079

34,139 34,238 34,021

32.193 32,276 31,914

514.1 515.3 513.8

295.0 295.3 294.6

668.0 669.3 670.7

747.9 747.9 748.2

FEB.

4 11 18P 25P

34,459 33,775 34,273 33,781

34,404 33,724 34,217 33,633

32,021 31,730 32,307 31,716

513.9 516.4 517.0 515.6

296.4 297.3 297.9 295.9

674.3 676.7 678.3 676.8

751.0 752.5 753.7 751.6

MAR.

34,346

34,261

32,159

514.2

296.7

678.0

752.0

982.9

MONTHLY:

1976--JAN. FEB.

WEEKLY: 1976--JAN.

NOTES:

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

MAR.

12,

1976

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES m Currency

Period

Total Time Demand Timep Deposits DepositsDeposits

Time Other Than CD's

S .

Mutual Savings Bank and S & L

Credit Union Shares

Sharesu1

4 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

ANNUALLY:

5.3 3.0 2.8

1973 1974 1975

11.4 9.4 11.8

8.5 5.6 15.7

13.8 12.1 20.2

45.6 41.4 -7.7

31.3 11.9 21.3

39.3 9.1 -3.1

20.9

4.4

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF 1974

2.1

8.0

6.1

11.5

1S.T HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975

4.4 1.2

13.4 9.6

15.2 15.2

20.9 17.6

-12.7 -2.9

6.7 34.7

5.7 -11.6

-1.1 9.9 2.9 -0.5

11.8 14.6 8.9 10.1

12.1 17.7 17.4 12.4

20.2 20.6 17.0 17.6

0.0 -25.4 -23.8 19.2

10.7 2.8 19.2 47.9

21.1 -9.1 -24.2 1.0

-2.0 6.9 6.6 0.5

9.9 12.5 12.7 9.1

10.1 16.2 18.2 14.0

17.5 21.0 18.6 16.5

19.7 -24.5 -27.5 9.5

17.9 -5.5 26.4 31.3

-0.9 9.3 -23.7 -7.8

1975--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

-2.8

8.4 3.9 11.1 14.4 3.3 3.8 1.6 -4.3 8.2 -5.4

13.0 10.0 9.9 15.1 18.4 14.0 6.4 6.0 10.4 11.9 7.9

11.2 15.2 16.4 17.2 18.9 18.9 17.7 14.9 13.5 12.4 11.0

21.4 21.0 20.6 20.3 19.9 15.7 19.4 15.2 18.8 14.8 18.3

-7.8 -30.0 -18.7 -44.8 -14.1 -28.5 -48.2 4.6 27.3 13.4 16.1

-4.1 -14.4 -12.5 -2.1 23.1 53.6 27.6 -23.2 37.4 78.2 23.3

L976--JAN. FEB. P

-0.5 4.3

17.6 20.6

13.4 14.1

18.0 21.3

-53.6 -57.6

QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH

QTR. QTR. OTR. QTR.

1975 1975 1975 1975

QUARTERLY-AV: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH

QTR. QTR. OTR. QTR.

1975 1975 1975 1975

MONTHLY:

'---""'

-----

1/ p -

--- "---"-"--

RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODULLAR BUKKUMINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY.

7.0 7.0

31.7 33.6 10.9 -13.5 -24.6 -25. -28.5\ -20.4 -5.9 6.0 3.0 0.0 -3.0

AND REQUIREMENTS CURRENT

MONTH AND

ON BANK-RELATED END

MAR. 12,

1976

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period

Currenc

Demnd ios

-po1 2

T i

utual

Other

avings

Deposits

Than

CD's 4

Short Credit

&DLs

Shares 5

n o

Savings

Term

Bonds

.eS US. Govt

Commercial

deosit

Gov'

Paper

F oosiy Funds

Dedant Demand

ANNUALLY: 209.0 215.3 221.3

364.4 419.1 451.2

300.9 329.3 368.3

323.5 341.6 395.4

24.7 27.7 33.3

63.5 89.8 82.9

60.4 63.3 67.3

50.3 56.3 68.3

38.3 41.8 40.5

1975--FEB. MAR.

213.2 214.7

428.3 428.7

336.2 339.0

347.5 351.9

28.6 29.1

92.1 89.8

63.9 64.2

58.5 57.8

42.8 44.0

APR. MAY JUNE

215.4 217.4 220.0

430.1 431.2 435.5

341.8 346.1 351.4

356.7 361.8 367.5

29.6 30.1 30.6

88.4 85.1 84.1

64.5 64.8 65.1

57.2 57.1 58.2

44.4 43.9 43.0

JULY AUG. SEPT.

220.6 221.3 221.6

437.6 436.2 438.3

355.5 357,4 359.2

373.3 378.8 383.5

31.0 31.5 31.9

82.1 78.8 79.1

65.6 45.9 66.2

60.8 62.2 61.0

42.1 41.1 40.4

OCT. NOV. DEC.

220.8 222.3 221.3

443.2 447.6 451.2

362.3 365.9 368.3

387.8 391.8 395.4

32.4 32.8 33.3

80.9 81.8 82.9

66.6 67.0 67.3

62.9 67.0 68.3

40.2 40.4 40.5

221.2 222.0

452.9 455.5

373.7 380.1

399.8 404.5

33.8 34.4

79.2 75.4

67.6 68.0

68.7 69.1

40.5 40.4

14 21 28

221.0 221.1 220.1

452.8 452.6 453.6

372.9 374.0 376.2

79.9 78.6 77.4

FEB.

4 11 18P 25P

221.8 222.4 222.8 220.8

454.6 455.2 455.8 455.8

377.9 379.4 380.4 381.0

76.7 75.8 75.4 74.8

MAR.

221.6

455.3

381.3

74.0

1973 1974 .1975

MONTHLY:

1976--JAN. FEB. P

WEEKLY: 1976--JAN.

I NOTES:

RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGGINNING OCTOBER 1I 1970. 1/ ESTIMATED MONTHLY-AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. DATA. P - PRELIMINARY

Appendix Table III

Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) MI

M 1973

3.6

7.4

7.3

8.4

10.3

10.1

6.4

9.9

9.8

8.5

III

1.8

5.5

6.3

6.1

7.8

5.1

10.5

9.9

8.4

QIV '72-QIV '73

6,0

6.2

8.8

9.0

1974

5.3

6.0

9.0

9.6

8.4

8.9

5.3

5.6

6.9

7.4

5.7

6.5

3.0

4.2

5.5

6.4

5.2

5.6

4.7

4.0

6.6

6.4

7.2

6.5

4.7

5.0

7.2

7.7

6.8

7.1

1.4

0.6

6.9

5.6

9.0

7.5

9.7

7.4

III

3.6

7.1

1.9 4.2

II III IV

QIV '73-QIV '74 1975

IV QIV '74-QIV '75

10.2

14.5

12.6

6.5

10.1

10.7

13.3

2.5

6.4

6.1

8.9

9.2

4.4

8.3

8.2

11.2

11.1

12.5

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

Appendix Table IV

Projected Federal Funds Rates

Alt. A 1976

Alt. B

4.7

4.8

QII

QIII QIV

6 6%

Alt. C 4.9

5-7/8

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1976, March 15). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760316

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19760316,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1976},
  month = {Mar},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760316},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}