bluebooks · April 19, 1976

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

April 16,

1976

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

April 16,

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC

1976

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments

(1) M1 increased at about a 6½ per cent annual rate during March. With incoming data for early April showing further strength, growth for March and April combined now appears to be running at about a 7¼ per cent annual rate, as compared with the 6 per cent mid-point of the Committee's range.

Growth in M 2 over the March-April period is now projected at nearly

a 10 per cent annual rate, also above the mid-point of the Committee's range.

Inflows to savings accounts at banks, although below the extra-

ordinary February pace, have remained quite strong. nonbank thrift institutions

Deposit growth at

also has been well maintained, with March

expansion at S&L's and savings banks combined running close to a 15 per cent annual rate. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over March-April Period Reserve and monetary aggregates

(Growth at SAAR, in per cent)

Ranges

Latest Estimates

4 to 8

7.3

7 to 11

9.9

RPD

-2 to 2

Avg. for statement

Memo:

Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

0.0

4¼ to 5¼

week ending March 24 31 April 7 14

4.79 4.84 4.73 4.78

(2)

During the intermeeting period, estimates of growth in M 1

and M2 for March-April fluctuated around the mid-point of the FOMC's ranges, and the Desk continued to aim for reserve availability consistent with Federal funds trading around 4¾ per cent.

In the four statement weeks since

the March meeting, excess reserves and member bank borrowing have averaged $210 million and $50 million, respectively, both somewhat below their recent levels.

Nonborrowed reserves over the March-April period have shown little

net change, as reserves to support M1 and M2 continued to be released by declines in CD's; in addition, more of the money growth than expected took the form of currency, which requires no reserves. (3)

With the funds rate remaining stable, short-term interest

rates have dropped back to levels reached in mid-January, when the funds rate first moved down into the 4¾ per cent range.

These declines, together

with the relatively favorable performance of the wholesale and consumer price indexes, have contributed to a further strengthening of investor demands for longer-term investments.

Since the last FOMC meeting, bond

yields have declined another 15 to 40 basis points despite the heavy recent volume of new issues.

In mortgage markets, rates have declined 5-10 basis

points further. (4) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various time periods.

Past Six Months Mar. '76 over Sept,'75

Past Three Months Mar. '76 over Dec. '75

Past Month Mar. '76 over Feb. '76

-,4

-2.4

-6.2

-1,8

9.2

1.3

-0.5

-5.4

-0.9

7.4

-1.1

-2.8

-5.9

-3.7

4.7

4.2

3.3

4.6

6.5

7.2

8,3

8,8

11.1

8.5

6.8

11.2

10.8

12.4

10.8

M4 (M2 plus CD's)

10.6

6.3

4.6

4.0

M 5 (M3 plus CD's)

9.0

9.6

9.0

8.2

7.9

10.2

3.9

4.3

1.6

1,2

9.2

4.3

5,2

7.3

8.2

2.2

-.6

-1.0

-3.3

-2.3

Calendar Year

1974

1975

Total reserves

7.1

Nonborrowed reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits Concepts of Money M1

(currency plus demand deposits) 1/

M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M3 (M2 plus deposits at

thrift institutions)

Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 21 Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's

-0.1 0.3 -0.1 -.2 .4 Nonbank commercial paper I/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. if Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (5)

Alternative longer-run growth ranges for the monetary

aggregates are shown below for Committee consideration. one year period from QI '76 to QI '77.

They pertain to the

The ranges shown under alternative B

are the same as those adopted in January for the QIV '75-QIV '76 period.

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

5½-8½

4½-7½

3½-6½

9-12

7¾-10¾

6-9

10-13

9-12

7½-10½

6-9

5-8

Proxy (6)

7-10

In considering these alternative longer-run targets, the

Committee may be interested in their relationship to the QIV '76 levels for the monetary aggregates that were implied by the mid-points of the ranges adopted in January.

From the fourth quarter of '75 to first quarter of '76,

M2 and M 3 expanded at annual rates very near the mid-points of the ranges adopted previously (and shown above under alternative B); thus, continuation of growth near these rates would be associated with QIV '76 levels close to those implied by the earlier targets.

However, M1 growth from the fourth

to first quarter--at a 2.9 per cent annual rate--was well below both the lower limit of the longer-run range and the 6 per cent mid-point of that range.

To achieve the level in QIV '76 implied by the mid-point of the

earlier range, M1 would have to grow at almost a 7 per cent annual rate over the last three quarters of this year.

Assuming M1 growth returns to a 6 per

cent annual rate in the first quarter of 1977, this would imply a growth rate

-4aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates __

1976

1977

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

March April May

298.4 300.5 302.2

298.4 300.4

302.0

298.4 300.3 301.8

681.7 688.4 694.5

681.7 688.1 693.9

681.7 687.9 693.3

1125.6 1138.0 1150.1

1125.6 1137.6 1148.9

1125.6 1137.2 1147,8

QI QII QIII

296.8 302.0 306.5 310.5

296.8 301.8 305.7 308.6

675.9 694.5 712.3 729.5

675.9 693.8 709.6 722.6

675.9 693.3 707.4 717.9

1114.5 1149.9 1183.6 1215,1

1114.5 1148.7 1178.7 1206.1

1114.5

QIV

296.8 302.2 307.3 312.5

317.7

314.5

311.5

745.2

735.3

727.9

1242.8

1231.5

1214.8

1147.6 1174.9 1196.0

Growth Rates Monthly:

8.4 6.8

8.0 6.4

7.6 6.0

11.8 10.6

11.3 10.1

10.9 9.4

13.2 12.8

12.8 11.9

12.4 11,2

7.3 6.8 6.8 6.7

7.0 6.0 5.2 5.2

6.7 5.2 3.8 3.8

11.0

10.6

9.1 7.3 7.0

10.3 8.1 5.9 5.6

12.7 11.7 10.6 9.1

12.3 10.4 9.3 8.4

11.9 9.5 7.2 6.3

Semi-annual QI '76-QIII '76 QIII '76-QI '77

7.1 6.8

6.5 5.2

6.0 3.8

10.8

10.0 7,2

9.3 5.8

12.4 10.0

11.5 8.9

10.8

Annual QIV '75-QIV '76 QI '76-QI '77

6.0 7.0

5.4 6.0

4.7 5.0

10.5 10.2

9.5 8.8

8.7 7.7

12.0 11.5

11.2 10.5

10.3 9.0

1976

April May

Quarterly Average: 1976

QII QIII

QIV 1977

10.3

9.7 8,6

9.2

6.8

-4bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates

(cont'd) Credit Proxy

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt, A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1976

March April May

754.8 761.1 767.3

754.8 760.8 766.9

754.8 760.7 766.5

1198.7 1210.7 1222.8

1198.7 1210.3 1221.9

1198,7 1210.0 1221.0

516.4 517.9 521.9

516.4 517.8 521.7

516,4 517.6 521.5

1976

QI QII QIII QIV

751.8 767.2 785.2 805.5

751.8 766.8 783.8 800,3

751.8 766.5 781.8 795.6

1190.4 1222.6 1256.5 1291.1

1190.4 1221.7 1252.9 1283.8

1190.4 1220,8 1249.2 1273.6

515.5 521.8 534.0 547.2

515.5 521.6 533.4 544.1

515.5 521.4 532.1 541.8

824.7

816,8

809.0

1322.3

1311.1

1295.8

559.3

554.2

549.0

3.3 9.0

2.8 9.0

1977

Growth Rates Monthly: 1976

April May

12.0 12.0

11.6 11.5

11.3

9.2

7.8 8.0 7.1 6.7

10.8 11.1 11.0 9.7

10.5

9.5

8.0 8.9 8.4 8.2

10.2 9.9 8.5

10.2 9.3 7.8 7.0

4.9 9.4 9.9 8.8

4.7 9.0 8.0 7.4

4.6 8.2 7.3 5.3

8.9 10.1

8.5 8.4

8.0 7.0

11.1 10.5

10.5 9.3

9.9 7.5

7.2 9.5

6.9 7.8

6.4 6.4

8.5 9.7

7.8 8.6

7.2 7.6

10.7

10.1 10.1

9.2 8.9

6.8 8.5

6.2 7.5

5.8 6.5

10.0

9.4

9.8

10.9

Quarterly Averages:

1976 1977

QII QIII QIV QI

Semi-annual QI '76-QIII '76 QIII '76-QI '77

Annual QIV '75-QIV '76 QI '76-QI '77

8.2 9.4 10.3

11.1

for the new one-year target period QI '76-QI '77 of about 6¾ per cent--well within the ranges of alternatives A and B and a shade above the upper limit

of alternative C. (7)

Short-run operating strategies roughly corresponding to the

longer-run ranges are suggested below:

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Ranges for April-May 1/

5½-9½

5-9

4½-8½

9½-13½

8½-12½

8-12

Federal funds rate (intermeeting range)

3¾-4¾

4¼-¼

4¾-5¾

(8) The Federal funds rate range of alternative B is centered on the recently prevailing 4¾ per cent level.

Given the bulge in M1 in

early April, we expect that such a funds rate would be accompanied by M1 growth in a 5-9 per cent, annual rate, range over the April-May period. With expansion in time and savings deposits other than large CD's remaining relatively strong, M2 growth over the same period is likely to be in an 8½-12½ per cent annual rate range. (9) M1 growth has been generally strengthening in recent months. Part of the expansion in recent weeks may be attributable to declining Treasury deposits, but on balance it seems likely that a somewhat more typical relationship between M1 and GNP is being re-established.

We would

expect M1 to grow at about a 7 per cent annual rate from the first to second quarter. The staff expects that interest rates will soon have to begin 1/ Reserve aggregates thought to be consistent with these ranges are shown in appendix table V.

rising if growth over the one-year QI '76-QI '77 period is to be constrained to 6 per cent--the mid-point of the longer-run growth range of alternative B. Our projected Federal funds rate patterns through the first quarter of 1977 for all alternatives are shown in appendix table IV.

Under alternative B,

the funds rate is expected to reach the 7 per cent level by early next year. (10)

If the funds rate stays around the mid-point of its

alternative B range over the next four weeks, short- and longer-term interest rates are unlikely to change significantly.

On April 28, the Treasury will

be announcing its mid-May refunding of some $4 billion of publicly-held maturing debt.

The Treasury may also raise about $1 -2 billion of new cash

at the same time.

It is possible that a longer-term bond as well as a note

in the 7-10 year maturity area may be included in the offering.

While the

volume of corporate and municipal bond offerings appears to be dropping off from its exceptional March pace, the forward calendar remains high, and substantial longer-term offerings by the Treasury could exert some upward pressure on bond yields. (11)

Alternative C contemplates a gradual tightening of the

money market over the next four weeks to the mid-point of a 4¾-5¾ per cent funds rate range in the process of moving toward lower longer-run growth rates for the aggregates. In the short-run, however, the impact on M1 and M 2 probably would be no more than minor because member banks would respond to the reduced availability of nonborrowed reserves contemplated under this alternative by increasing their borrowing.

It is possible,

though, that a substantial upward adjustment in the Treasury bill and other short-term rates would occur in response to signs of a sustained upward movement in the funds rate.

Under these conditions, if short-rates moved

well above the 5 per cent passbook ceiling rate, there could be sizable outflows of interest-sensitive funds from savings accounts, particularly those held by businesses and State and local governments.

This would tend to drop

the rate of growth in M2 toward the bottom of the indicated April-May range. (12)

Under alternative C, we expect that interest rates would

have to rise considerably further to achieve a 5 per cent M1 growth from QI '76 to QI '77.

By early 1977, the funds rate might be around 7¾ per

cent. (13)

Under alternative A, the mid-point of the longer-run growth

target for M1 is 7 per cent.

In order to achieve this more rapid growth,

money market conditions would probably have to ease somewhat over the next few weeks, and the funds rate would probably remain below 5 per cent until well into the summer months.

Thereafter, however, interest

rates would need to rise, with the Federal funds rate probably reaching the 6 per cent area in early 1977.

Given the expected pattern of market

interest rates, interest-bearing deposits would likely remain quite strong into the third quarter, but inflows would begin to slow later on as rates on market instruments became more attractive. (14)

Over the period immediately ahead, internal funds available

to the business sector are expected to remain quite ample relative to

-8requirements generated by inventory and capital investment, so that little pick-up in business short-term credit demands is anticipated.

As expenditures

continue to rise, though, businesses later this year are expected to turn increasingly to commercial banks and the paper market for funds.

Under

alternatives A and B, banks are likely to have sufficient funds available without reliance on significant increases in CD's. C limited fund

But under alternative

flows by late this year could induce banks to rely

appreciably more on sales of CD's to satisfy credit demands.

Proposed directive (15)

Presented below are four alternative formulations for the

operational paragraph of the directive.

The first three are couched in terms

of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead and are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section.

The fourth alternative is proposed in the event that the

Committee wishes to formulate its instructions in terms of money market conditions and wishes to maintain the conditions now prevailing.

Since the

last meeting, exchange market conditions have tended to become stable, although the pound and the lira remain subject to particular uncertainties.

Therefore, in all alternatives, we propose deleting the

specific reference to "the sensitive state of foreign exchange markets" that was inserted at the last meeting, and restoring the previously longstanding reference to international financial markets. Alternative "Monetary Aggregates" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic AND INTERNATIONAL financial markets, [DEL: and the sensitive state of

foreign exchange

markets,] the Committee seeks to achieve

moderate] bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: SUBSTANTIAL growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead.

-10Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments and the sensitive in domestic AND INTERNATIONAL financial markets, [DEL;

state of foreign

exchange markets,] the Committee seeks to achieve

bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments and the sensitve in domestic AND INTERNATIONAL financial markets, [DEL; state of foreign exchange markets,] the Committee seeks to achieve moderate] bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: MODEST growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead.

'Money Market" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments and the sensitive in domestic AND INTERNATIONAL financial markets, [DEL: achieve] markets,] the Committee seeks to [DEL: exchange

of foreign state

consistent MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: in growth moderate with

monetary

aggregates] over the period ahead,

PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

CHART 1

CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II-FOMC 4/16/76

RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 35

S 1974

J 1975

M 1976

RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios.

CHART 2

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC 4/16/76

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320

305

300

280

295

290

1974

1975

J 1975

M 1976

CHART 3

4/16/76

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-540

-520

-500

-480

RESERVES

I l

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 39

- 37

-TOTAL

NONBORROWED 33

1974

1975

1976

Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios.

CHART 4

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

PER CENT

INTEREST RATES Short-term WEEKLY

PERCENT 10

INTEREST RATES WEEKLY

AVERAGES

F.R. DISCOUNT RATE

RATE

1 4

1975

1976

1975

1976

1975

1976

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 1

BANK RESERVES

APRIL 16, 1976

(ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) REQUIRED RESERVES

AGGREGATE RESERVES

AVAILABLE RSERVES RESERVES AVAILABLE

SEASONALLYADJUSTED ASEASONALLY ADJUSTED

dFOR PRIVATE

FOR PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS

Period

Total

Nonborrowed

SA SA

NSA NSA

Reserves

Total Required

Private Demand

Total Time Deposits

Gov't. and Interbank

MONTHLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 32,100 31,849 31,752 131,847)

1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. PERCENT

33.170 31,667 31,496 (31,952)

34,245 34,052 34,000 (34,026)

34, 1'7 33,971 33,946 (33,990)

34,005 33,833 33,776 (33,817)

19,732 19,715 19,t59 (19t,99)

12,126 11,915 11,869 (S11,939

2,145 2,203 2,24b ( 2.179)

ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. 1976--IST QTR.

-1.5 0.4 -5.9

-0.8 1.4 -6.2

-2.8 4.5 -5.4

-0.7 0.5 -5.8

3.4 -3.4 -2.0

-0.8 -0.8 -3.4

0.1 0.6 -3.9

-1.9 2.7 -3.2

-0.1 -0.1 -3.6

6.2 -2.1 -1.0

-12.2 -0.6 -t.4

(

-8.4 -6.9 -0.9 1.6)

(

-9.3 -6.1 -2.0 1.5)

-1.5 -1.0 -5.4 2.4)

-7.' -21.1 -4.6 ( 7.1)

(

0.3)

(

-0.3)

-9.0 4.1

QUARTERLY-AV 1975--3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. 1976--1ST QTR. MONTHLY 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAR.-APR.

(

-4.9 -9.4 -3.7 3.6)

(

-10.2 -6.8 -1.8 0.9)

(

0.0)

(

-0.5)

1 1

-0.5)

1.2)

WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS

NOTE:

1976--MAR.

3 10 17 24 31

31,970 31,533 31,608 31.699 32,074

31,675 31,016 31,459 31,470 31,963

34,340 33 834 33,843 33,876 34,300

34,256 33,786 33,803 337.98 34,263

33,930 33,731 33,642 33,765 33,899

19,676 19,545 19,555 19,749 19,761

11,884 11,885 11,852 11,839 11,892

2,370 2,300 2,235 2,177 2,226

APR.

7 14

31t621 31,738

31,383 31,692

33t858 33,786

33,834 33,724

33,727 33,603

19,576 19,628

11,914 11,926

2,237 2,048

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF MAR. 16, RANGE OF -2.0 TO 2.0 PERCENT FOR THE MAR.-APR. PERIOD.

IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. 1l76 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC

Table 2

MONETARY AGGREGATES APRIL 16,

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

MONTHLY

U.S.

Broad

Credit

Govt

Total

(M1)

(M2)

Proxy

Deposits

Total

Savings

Other

295.3 296.8 298.4 (300.41

669.0 676.9 681.7 (688.11

514.1 515.9 516.4 (517.8)

452.9 455.5 456.4 (460.4)

373.7 380.1 383.2 (387.7)

164.2 170.0 173.4 (176.7)

209.5 210.1 209.9 (211.0)

Other Than CD'S

Sources of Funds

LEVELS-SBILLIONS 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR.

PERCENT

Nondeposit

Time and Savings Deposits

Adjusted

Narrow

Money Supply

Period

(

2.6 2.6 2.5 2.1)

(

79.2 75.4 73.1 72.7)

(

7.9 8.3 8.6 8.1)

ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 3.6 1.9 4.6

6.5 6.4 11.1

-0.8 7.0 1.6

2.6 11.8 4.6

8.9 10.1 16.2

14.5 17.1 31.9

4.9 4.7 4.2

-23.8 19.2 -47.3

7.1 2.5 2.9

10.1 6.1 9.5

1.4 6.0 2.6

4.7 9.1 6.8

12.7 9.1 14.8

18.4 14.7 28.4

8.6 4.9 4.4

-27.5 9.5 -29.3

(

1.2 6.1 6.5 8.0)

(

10.3 14.2 8.5 11.3)

(

-0.7 4.2 1.2 3.3)

(

4.5 6.9 2.4 10.5)

(

17.6 20.6 9.8 14.1)

26.9 42.4 24.0 2.8)

(

10.4 3.4 -1.1 6.3)

-53.6 -57.6 -36.6 -6.6)

(

7.3)

9.9)

(

2.2)

6.5)

12.0)

23.6)

(

2.6)

-21.5)

1975--3RD QTR. 4TH 0TR. 1976--15T OTR. QUARTERLY-AV 1975--3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1976-1ST QTR. MONTHLY 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAR.-APR.

(

WEEKLY LEVELS-SBILLIONS 1976--MAR.

APR.

381.7 382.7

73.8 73.0

7.9 8.1

456.1

383.1

73.0

6.3

456.7 457.8

383.7 384.4

73.0 73.4

8.5 8.2

460.0

386.7

73.4

7.2

296.8 299.3

678.5 682.0

514.4 515.7

2.2 2.9

455.5 455.8

298.7

681.8

516.7

2.8

24 31

297.3 298.6

681.0 683.0

515.9 515.3

2.8 1.9

300.0

686.6

517.4

2.4

3 10

7 P

NOIEI

DATA

SHOWN

PARENTHESES

I ARE

CURRENT

PROJECTIONS.

h P

PRELIMINARY

1976

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC APRIL 16, 1976

TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted)

Bills & Accept.

Period

/ Open Market Operations Coupon Agency RP's Issues Issues Net 3/

(10)

(8)

(9)

2,008

5,155

2,458

186

-2,432

114

15 -2,637

445 -2,537

1,276 521

-205 -130

-1,150 -387

15 1

-94 3

265 280

1,219

3,315

1,165

-813

339

355

3,597 -3,129

2,567 -1,101

942 1,631

-48 -3

-308 -3,250

137 -76

449 -1,546

960 -1,110

1,932

822

393

Oct. Nov.

147 -608

-709

284 -1

Dec.

1,799

297

1976--Jan. Feb.

-1,590 1,205

321 528

240 295

Apr. May

Mar.

Apr.

(11)

(7)

(4)

1976--Feb.

A Target Available reserves 5/

(6)

(3)

1975--Sept.

Total

A In Reserve Categories Available res. 5/ Req. res. against U.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9)

(5)

(2)

(1)

Daily Average Reserve Effects 2Open Market A Member Other 4/ Operations Bank Borrowing factors

470

4 11 18

-190 336 820

189 -

----

339

3 10

110 -711

--107

401

310

376

-147

7 14 21 28

-1,608 -521

-70 -

-3,534 -2,969 2,210

-3,536 -2,633 3,031

1,605 -4,051 2,656

-1 -6 5

-1,607 2,767 -1,900

246 -279 172

-249 -1,011 589

-1

4,014

4,389

2,428

-3,404

-33

-851

297 --

-3,314 -8,835

-2,907 -9,653

-93 -4,051

-63 -38

588 3,380

144 -50

288 -659

4,115

4,826

429

-7

-91

-112

443

3,143

3,519

3,541

-3,727

-159

1,142

995

-1,002

-41

1,658p

166

449p

--- -7,764 5,064

-9,442 4,543

-4,396 -1,273

-13 38

3,768p 1,399p

-61 -146

-580p 310p

Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill

2/ 3/ 4/ 5/

Represents change in daily average level for preceding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for March and April reflects

auctions.

gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. the target adopted at the March 16, 1976 FOMC

meeting. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. P - Preliminary.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC APRIL 16, 1976

TABLE

NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted)

Treasury Bills Net Change 2/

Period 1972 1973 1974 1975

Within 1-year

Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Over 1 - 5 5 - 10 10

Total

Within 1-year

Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Over I - 5 5 - 10 10

Total

Net Change Outright Holdings Net Total 5/ RP's 6/

-490 7,232 1,280 -468

87 207 320 337

789 579 797 3,284

539 500 434 1,510

167 129 196 1,070

1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202

46 120 439 191

592 400 1,665 824

253 244 659 460

168 101 318 138

1,059 864 3,082 1,613

1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267

-1,358 -46 -154 1,272

-2,093 1,086 -757 1,294

33 218 13 74

1,054 1,135 712 385

625 454 201 234

312 273 171 315

2,024 2,079 1,096 1,006

69 64 58

169 -514 141

285 -2 106 71

61 -63 14

584 -2 747 284

508 3,076 1,060 2,626

53 230 2,392 -1,403

-363

115

554

226

156

1,052

102

288

108

535

1,022

1,256

1975--Oct. Nov. Dec.

97 -588 1,784

-43 31

-267 118

156 78

244 71

-709 297

58 --

141 --- 71 -

14 --

284 --- 430 99 2,096

15 -2,637 1,219

1976--Jan. Feb. Mar.

-1,596 1,275 -42

37 40 38

110 366 78

100 63 63

73 59 24

321 528 203

26 76 -

139 149 --

47 61 --

27 11 -

240 297 --

-1,030 2,029 23

3,597 -3,129 788

1976--Feb. 4 11 18 25

-189 356 840 53

-40

189 --177

--63

---59

189 -339

--- --

--- ----

-1 336 820 376

-3,534 -2,969 2,210 4,014

Mar. 3 10 17 24 31

150 -688 438 431 -156

-38 -

--107 185 --

--24 --- --107 310 -

76 --- 149 --- 61 --

11 --

297 --- 407 -818 711 376 -147

-3,314 -8,835 4,115 3,143 1,142

Apr. 7 14 21 28

-1,593 -501

-70

1975--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr.

I II III IV

1976--Qtr. I

Apr.

-70 -..

63 --..-

-1,678

-7,764

-521

5,064

1/ Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Tncludes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC APRIL 16, 1976 TABLE 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions

Period

Bills

Coupon Issues

1I\ \

Member Bank Reserve Position Dealer Positions

Corporate Bonds

Municipal Bonds

Borrowin

Excess** Reserves (S)

Total (6)

at FRB**

Seasonal

Basic Reserve Deficit

8 New York (8)

38 Others (9)

1975--High Low

7,029 1,586

2,845 253

804 -42

609 17

-7,387 -1,757

-11,632

1976--High Low

*6,821 4,294

1,684 349

570 -106

153 37

-6,736 -2,367

-12,603

1975--Mar.

3,143

2,521

195

-5,732

-10,302

Apr. May June

2,737 4,744 5,201

1,617 1,752 1,351

143 155 201

110 66 227

-4,079 -3,965 -5,821

-10,426

July

1,246 1,204 588

188 195

Sept.

4,231 4,020 5,008

191

259 211 397

-5,546 -3,964 -3,551

- 9,896 - 9,966 - 9,015

Oct. Nov. Dec.

5,766 4,751 4,822

1,480 2,073 1,075

161 251 265

189 60 130

-2,644 -3,812 -2,811

- 9,202

1976--Jan. Feb. Mar.

4,959 5,214 *5,910

1,220 1,051

232 256 254p

-3,581 -4,138 -4,726

- 9,746

5,020 5,183 5,961 4,789

828 1,684 903 833

3 10 17 24 31

4,530 5,984 6,107 *6,106 *6,032

581 911 349 *809 *1,184

410 103 201 111 4 01p

7 14 21 28

*6,725 *6,821

*669 *773

13 p 84 1 p

Aug.

1976--Feb. 4 11 18 25 Mar.

Apr.

NOTE:

*778

417 123 570 -106

79 81 54p

- 7,207

- 8,478

- 9,567 - 9,344

-10,159 -10,418

-10,015 - 9,640

57 51 56 148

-2,367 -5,662 -3,673 -3,720

84 48 40 78 37p

-4,415 -6,510 -4,980 -3,681 -4,226

- 9,390

24p 62p

-5,942p 6 - ,736p

-10, 03p -12,603p

- 9,018

-10,889 -10,642 - 9,550

-10,252 - 9,914

-10,095 - 8,824

Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. *

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

**Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II

FOMC

APRIL 16, 1976 TABLE 6 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent) Treasury Bills Federal Funds (1)

Period

90-Day

1-year

Short-Term 90-119 Day CD's New Commercial Paper 60-89 Day

ssue-NYC 90-119 Day

(3)

(6)

. aA Ut .y Municipal New Recently Bond Issue Offered Buysr (7) (8) 9.71 9.80, 8.89 9.06

1975--High Low

7.70 5.13

7.31 5.46

7.75 5.38

1976--High Low

5.12 4.70

5.92 5.35

5.38 4.88

8.88

8.53

1975--Mar.

5.54

5.70

6.03

Apr. May June

5.49

6.40 5.91 5.86

6.03

July Aug. Sept.

6.10 6.14 6.24

6.64 7.16

6.25

7.20

Oct. Nov. Dec.

5.82

1976--Jan. Feb. Mar.

4.87 4.77

1976-Feb. 4 11 18 25

4.82 4.73 4.70 4.80

5.00 5.13 .5.21 5.15

Mar. 3 10 17 24 31

4.95 4.86 4.77 4.79 4.84

Apr. 7 14 21 28

4.73 4.77

Daily-Apr.

4.73 4 .75p

5.22 5.55

5.22

5.20

4.84

4.9Q 4.78

Lona-Te r m U.S. Govt.(20- IFNA yr, Constant Auction Natrity) Yield (10) (11)

lONMA Guaranteed Securities (12)

8.63 7.63

9.95 8.78

9.10

8.94

8.10

8.50

7.85

9.13 8.94

8.45 8.25

9.35

9.38

7.99

8.82

8.09

9.67 9.63 9.25

9.66

8,36

906

9.65 9.33

8.22 8.04

9.27 9.09

8.48 8.51 8.34

9.43

8.17 8.50 8.57

9.14

6.81

9.41 9.46 9.68

6.48 6.07 6.16

6.45 6.03 5,83

9.45 9.20 9.36

9.43 9.26 9.23

8.35 8.28

9.80 9.80

8.23

9.31

5.44 5.53 5.82

5.03

8.70 8.63 8.62

8.79 8.63

8.01

9.10 9.06

8.61

8.03 7.97

4.88 5.13

8.68

8.62

8.04

8.10

9.07

5.13

8.64

5.13

8.58

8.68 8.67 8.56

8.06 7.96

9,04

5.20 5.25 5.33 5.30 5.13

5.38 5.25

8.72 8.63 8.61 8.53 8.60

8.72 8.64

8,07

5.20 5.10

5.00

5.56 5.37

5.63 5.51

6.63

5.06 5.20

5.13 5.13

5.25 5.13 5.00 4.88

8.43p

9,49 9.57

9.41 9.78

9.05

9.06

8.50 8.54

7.99 7.97 7.89 7.90

8.50 8.4 6p

7.84 7.80p

8.94

8.60

7.93

8.50 8.75 8.97 8.87 8.50 8.56 8.37 8.29 8.30

9.03

7.82 n.a. "

NOTE:

Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For colmm 7 and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 8 and 9 are one-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data fo the Monay preceding the and of the statement week. Column 12 is a one-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The EMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auctiaofor short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average notayild to tiveators on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mlotgages carrylg the prevaling ceiling rate.

APPENDIX TABLE 1-A

APRIL 16,

1976

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

Available Period Total

Noto Non borrowed

Support Pvt. Deposits 3

ANNUALLY:

Total Loans M2 M1 and Investments 7 6 5 4 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

AdlCredit proxy

11.0 10.6 6.3

10.6 9.0 9.6

11.1 8.9 10.0

11. ,

8.4 7.4 -1.1

10.5 10.2 3.9

13.5 9.2

-0.4

6.0 9.2 1.3

4.3

6.0 4.7 4.2

4.2

19.3

5.7

6.1

3.1

3.9

7.8

7.'.

7.1

7.0

9.9 9.0

9.5 10.U

9.4 9.3

6.7 7.1

1973 1974 1975

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

BANK CREDIT MEASURES

RESERVES

6.9 9.6

SEMI-ANNUALLY: END HALF

1974

-1.2

1ST HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975

0.3

-1.7 -0.6

1.7 0.9

4.5 3.1

5.1 3.4

5.6 2.7

C.9 5.4

5.3 -0.8 7.0

4.6 3.6 3.1

9.7 3.6 1.9

7.7 3.0 7.8

11.3 8.1 9.6

10.6 8.6 11.2

10.1 7.5 10.9

DUARTERLY: -0.1 -2.8 4.5

-0.2 -1.5 0.4

-6.2

-5.4

-5.9

1.6

7.3

4.6

4.E

6.2

6.1

7.6

2ND OTR. 1975 3RD QTR. 1975 4TH QTR. 1975

-1.4

-0.4 -1.9 2.7

-2.2 -0.8 -0.8

3.6

7.4 7.1 2.5

5.6 5.7 t.5

9.4

6.0

!.1 4.1 4.7

10.1 9.2

U.7 10.7 10.1

8.7 9.5 9.5

1ST QTR.

-3.9

-3.2

-3.4

2.6

4.0

2.9

5.2

6.3

8.6

8.i

1975--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

-9.0 -1.4 3.5 -11.6 12.2

-0.4 0.0 3.4 -10.1 6.5 -5.8 0.0 -2.6 0.8 14.3 -1.6

-6.2 -4.e 2.2 -8.1 5.4 -0.3 -4.3 0.3 -5.1 6.0 0.3

-0.7 6.0 2.2 1.0 12.7 -3.3 -4.3 5.2 5.9 14.4 0.7

4.9 4.4 3.9 6.2 12.9 5.1 -C.5 4.3 7.7 11.1 4.5

7.3 8.2 8.2 10.1 16.0 10.0 5.9 8.3 '-.7 11.6 7.2

6.t 6.9 7.8 9.4 14.9 11.9 7.0 6.5 11.0 14.6 7.7

1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. P

-10.2

-8.4 -6.9 -0.9

-4.9 -9.4 -3.7

-0.7 4.2 1.2

'7.u 9.4 7.9

6.8 9.3 8.G

2ND QTR. 1975 3RD OTR. 1975 4TH OTR. 1975

1.3 -o.d

IST QTR.

1.4

1976

QUARTERLY-AV:

0.1 0.6

1976

1.4

MONTHLY:

-3.2 -3.1 3.9

-6.3 9.7 0.8

-6.8

-1.8 I

NOTES:

1/ P -

4.3 7.9 3.4 5.1 5.1 2.0 6.8 2.0 6.0 10.5 -7.3 5.3 6.1 6.2

0.0 9.4 3.4 11.4 14.2 3.7 5.3 1.6 -0.8 9.4 -2.8 1.2 6.1 6.5

3.2 6.6 4'.0

7.9 7.8 6.6 13.5 10.6 6.0 3.7 10.4 14.3 7.6 6.5 8.9

7.1

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMEN1S, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR bORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. ONMHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS. Mt, M1, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. PRELIMINARY

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

APRIL 16,

1976

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

RESERVESU

BANK CREDIT

MONEY STOCK

MEASURES

Total

borrowed

Available to Support Pvt. Deposits 3

32,390 34,693 34,539

31,092 33,966 34,409

30,335 32,591 32,231

449.4 495.3 514.4

34,377

34,271

32,337

Period

Non

Adj. Credit proxy

Total Loans and Investments 5

634.6 691.9 721.6

270.5 283.1 295.0

571.4 612.4 663.3

919.5 981.6 1091.8

634.9 702.2 746.2

982.9 1071.4 1174.7

1093.7 1191.0 1310.0

1132.0 1232.7 1350.5

499.9

701.7

284.1

623.0

1003.7

712.8

1093.5

1214.9

1259.0

284.9 287.6 291.0

626.7 633.7 642.4

1012.7 1025.3 1040.2

715.1 718.8 726.5

1101.1 1110.4 1124.3

1222.8 1232,4 1247.7

1267.2 1276.3 1290.7

ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975

MONTHLY: 1975--MAP. APR. MAY JUNE

34,477 34.143 34,490

34,367 34,077 34,263

32,396 32,176 32.320

500.8 501.2 506.5

703.7 706.7 709.7

JULY AUG. SEPT.

34,399 34,310 34,421

34,098 34,099 34,024

32,3)1 32,194 32,201

505.1 503.3 505.5

710.9 714.9 716.1

291.9 293.2 293.6

647.5 650.6 652.9

1051.6 1060.6 1068.1

729.6 729.3 731.9

1133.7 1139.3 1147.2

1260.1 1267.5 1274.4

1302,1 1308,6 1314.6

OCT. NOV. DEC.

34,239 34,515 34,539

3',048 34,455 34.409

32,063 32,224 32,231

508.0 514.1 514.4

719.7 726.0 721.6

293.4 295.7 295.0

655.7 661.6 663.3

1075.6 1086.0 1091.8

736.6 743.4 746.2

1156.5 1167.7 1174.7

1286.1 1301.7 1310.0

1326.2 1342.0 1350.5

1976--JAN. FEB. MAR,

34,245 34,052 34,000

34,167 33.971 33,946

32,100 31.849 31,752

514.1 515.19 516.4

724.8 729.7 734.7

295.3 296.8 298.4

669.0 676.9 681.7

1102.4 1115.6 1125.6

748.2 752.3 754.8

1181.6 1190.9 1198.7

1317.4 1327.6 1336.5

1357.6 1367.9 1376.1

33,775 34,210 33,774

33,724 34,154 33,626

31,626 32 176 31,578

516.4 516.9 515.4

297.3 297.9 295.8

676.7 678.4 676.7

752.5 753.7 751.4

3 10 17 24 31P

34,340 33,834 33,843 33,876 34,300

34,256 33.786 33,803 33,798 34,263

31,970 31,533 31 608 31 699 32,074

514.4 515.7 516.7 515.9 515.3

296.8 299.3 298.7 297.3 298.6

678.5 682.0 681.8 681.0 66b.0

752.3 755.0 754.8 754.0 756.4

33,858

33,834

31,621

517.4

300.0

686.6

760.0

WEEKLY:

1976--FEB. 11 18 25 MAR.

APR.

I I . I I I6 ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLL 10 BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.DANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. I/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY

NOTES:

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

APKIL 1t,

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Currency

Period

Demand

otal

Time Deposits

Other Time Than CD's

Credit

Union Shares

CD's

Savings Bonds

C T Term v't ICommercial Paper USShort Securities

Sharesy

. 1

Savings

Mutual ank and S & L

S(Per

31.3 11.9 21.0

39.3 9.1 -3.3

4.4

cent annual rates of growth)

ANNUALLY : 11.4 9.4 11.8

6.5 5.6 15.7

13.8 12.1 20.2

45.6 41.4 -7.7

20.9

8.7

16.2 15.0 7.7

2ND HALF 1974

9.9

10.6

8.0

11.5

1ST HALF 1975 2NO HALF 1975

9.4 7.6

7.8 7.2

13.4 9.6

15.2 15.2

20.9 17.6

-12.7 -2.9

6.7 34.0

5.7 -12.1

1975 QIR. R. 1975 QiiR. 1975

9.2 5.6 9.4

6.3 2.6 11.8

14.6 8.9 10.1

17.7 17.4 12.4

20.6 17.0 17.6

-25.4 -23.8 19.2

7.0 19.2 46.6

-9.1 -24.2 0.0

1976

10.9

4.6

16.2

14.1

19.2

-47.3

8.2

-2.0

8.1

1.73 1974

10.

SMI-ANNUALLY:

QUAI 2ND 3RD 4TH

RKLY:

1lT O-TR.

QUARTERLY-AV: 9.3 -23.7 -8.7

2ND OTR. 3RD QTR. 4tfl QTR.

1975 1975 1975

8.1 8.5 8.4

4.5 4.7 9.1

12.5 12.7 9.1

16.2 18.2 14.0

21.0 18.6 16.5

-24.5 -27.5 9.5

-2.6 26.4 30.7

1'1 QTR.

1976

9.8

6.8

14.8

13.2

18.3

-29.3

17.0

0.0

12.2 1.7 12.1 13.7 5.1 10.1 1.7 10.0 13.2 4.9

1.1 3.9 3.1 12.0 5.8 -3.8 5.8 13.4 11.9 9.7

10.0 9.9 15.1 18.4 14.0 6.4 6.0 10.4 11.9 7.9

15.2 16.4 17.2 18.9 16.9 17.7 14.9 13.5 12.4 11.0

21.0 20.3 19.9 15.7 19.4 15.2 18.8 14.8 18.3

-30.0 -18.7 -44.8 -14.1 -28.5 -48.2 4.6 27.3 13.4 16.1

-16.6 0.0 -2.1 23.1 53.6 27.6 -23.2 37.4 78.2 19.7

33.6 10.9 -13.5 -24.6 -25.1 -28. -20. -5.9 6.0 0.0

8.1 12.9 11.2

4.5 6.9 2.4

17.6 20.6 9.8

13.4 14.4 13.9

18.0 10.7 28.2

-53.6 -57.6 -36.6

1.8 10.6 12.2

0.0 -3.0 -3.0

MOT HLY: )97h---MAR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DLL. 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR.

1/ P -

GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY.

MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS

20.6

DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT

MONTH AND END OF

19ft.

APRIL 16,

1976

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Currencyd D Cu ncy

Period

Demand Time Deposits _

Time -Total Other rhn CD' _

Mutual Savings Bank and S & L

Credit Union Shares

CD's

Savings Bnds

Shares y

Short Term Commercial 't S Scurite Secur 9 10

Nondeposit Fu n d s

U.S. Gov't Demand

61.5 67.8 73.7

209.0 215.3 221.3

364,4 419.1 451.2

300.9 329.3 368.3

323.5 341.6 395.4

17.7 13.3

63.5 89.8 82.9

60.4 63.3 67.3

50.3 56.3 68.1

38.3 41.8 40.4

6.6 8.4 8.4

5.0 3.4 3.0

1975--MAR.

69.4

214.7

428.7

339.0

351.9

29.1

89.8

64.2

57.2

44.0

6.5

2.5

APR. MAY JUNE

69.5 70.2 71.0

215.4 217.4 220.0

430.1 431.2 435.5

341.8 346.1 351.4

356.7 361.8 367.5

29.6 30.1 .0.6

88.4 85.1 84.1

64.5 64.8 65.1

57.2 57.1 58.2

44.4 43.9 43.0

6.7 7.4 7.0

2.7 2.5 3.2

JULY AUG. SEPT.

71.3 71.9 72.0

220.6 221.3 221.6

4jT.6 436.2 438.3

355.5 351.4 359.2

373.3 378.8 383.5

31.0 31.5 31.9

82.1 78.8 79.1

65.6 65.9 66.2

60.8 62.2 61.0

42.1 41.1 40.4

6.8 7.0 7.0

2.6 2.8 3.0

OCT. NOV. DEC.

72.6 73.4 73.7

220.8 222.3 221.3

443.2 447.6 451.2

362.3 365.9 36.3

387.8 391-8 395.4

32.4 32.8 33.3

80.9 81.8 82.9

66.6 67.0 67.3

62.9 67.0 68.1

40.2 40.4 40.4

7.9 8.2 8.4

3.0 3.9 3.0

74.2 75.0 75.7

221.2 221.8 222.8

452.9 455.5 456.4

373.7 380.1 383.2

399.8 404.6 409.3

33.8 34.1 34.9

79.2 75.4 73.1

67.6 67.9 68.3

68.2 68.8 69.5

40.4 40.3 40.2

7.9 8.3 8.6

2.6 2.6 2.5

74.9 75.0 75.1

222.4 222.8 220.7

455.2 455.8 455.7

379.4 380.5 380.9

75.8 75.3 74.8

8.1 8.1 8.0

2.5 2.8 3.0

ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1915

24.7

MONTHLY:

1976--JAN. FEB. MAR.

WE;KLY:

1976--FEB. 11 18 25

1/ P -

MAR.

3 10 17 24 31P

75.2 75.7 75.7 75.8 75.8

221.6 223.5 223.0 221.5 222.6

455.5 455.8 456.1 456.7 457.8

381.7 382.7 383.1 383.7 384.4

73.8 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.4

7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.2

2.2 2.9 2.8 2.8 1.9

APR.

76.2

223.8

460.0

386.7

73.4

7.2

2.4

ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE DATA. PRELIMINARY

LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING

END OF CURRENT

MONTH

AND

END

OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA.

Appendix Table III

Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) Ml

3.6

7.4

7.3

10.1

6.4

III

1.8

5.5

7.8

5.1

QIV '72-QIV '73

6.0

6.2

1974

5.3

9.2

8.4

10.3

9.9

8.2

9.8

8.5

6.3

7.9

6.1

7.8

9.0

9.9

8.4

8.8

9.0

6.0

9.0

9.6

8.4

8.9

5.3

5.6

6.9

7.4

5.7

6.5

III

3.0

4.2

5.5

6.4

5.2

5.6

4.7

4.0

6.6

6.4

7.2

6.5

QIV '73-QIV '74

4.7

5.0

7.2

7.7

6.8

7.1

1975

1.4

0.6

6.9

5.6

9.0

7.5

9.7

7.4

12.5

III

3.6

7.1

6.5

1.9

2.5

6.4

6.1

4.2

4.4

8.3

8.2

11.2

11.1

2.9

11.1

9.5

12.4

11.1

1973

QIV '74-QIV '75

1976

10.5

10.2

14.5

12.6

10.1

10.7

13.3

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in months of the quarters.

9.2

8.9

the final

Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

Appendix Table IV Projected Federal Funds Rates Alt. A 1976

1977

Alt. B

Alt. C

QII

4-5/8

QIII

4-7/8

QIV

Appendix Table V Reserve Measures Consistent With Short-run Alternatives (seasonally adjusted)

Average of 4 weeks April 28 to May 19 ($ million) Alt. A Nonborrowed reserves Member bank borrowing Excess reserves

34,012

Alt. B 33,966

Change from average of previous 5-weok period ($ million)

Alt, C 33,88(

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

-2

-82

2-month Annual Percentage Growth Rate for April-May Alt. A

Alt, B

Alt. C

2.6

1.6

0.0

-14

-9

204

186

9 16!

-28

-46

-63

-12

-51

2.2

1.4

0.6

Other reserve aggregates: Total reserves

Monetary base-

Nonborrowed monetary base

34,045

34,003

33,964

113,316

113,274

113,234

756

714

674

7.9

7.6

7.4

113,237

113,157

770

724

644

8.0

7.7

7.2

113,283

Total reserves plus currency held outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and member banks.

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1976, April 19). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760420

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19760420,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1976},
  month = {Apr},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760420},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}