bluebooks · June 21, 1976

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing).

A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Content last modified 6/05/2009.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

June 18, 1976

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

June 18, 1976

CLASS I - FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent Developments (1)

Growth in M1 slowed to a 6 per cent annual rate in

ay--

following April's exceptionally rapid advance--and appears to be moderating somewhat further in June.

Thus, for the May-June period,

M1 expansion is now projected at around a 5½ per cent annual rate, just below the mid-point of the Committee's range.

M2 is projected to expand

at around an 8¾ per cent rate during May and June, also well below its pace in April, but near the upper bound of the Committee's range.

Growth

in the time deposit component of M2 has been somewhat greater than expected in recent weeks, despite a marked diminution of inflows to savings deposits, as market rates moved above the ceiling rate on passbook savings. Inflows of funds to nonbank thrift institutions were well maintained in May. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over May-June Period (SAAR in per cent) Ranges

Latest Estimates

4 to 7½

5.6

5 to 9

8.7

Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

Avg. for statement week ending May 19 5.28 26 5.50

June 2

5.54

5.44

5.47

(2)

Following the May 18 FOMC meeting,

the Desk promptly became

somewhat less accommodative in the provision of reserves and sought a Federal funds rate around 5-3/8 per cent, a shade above the then prevailing 5-1/4 per cent and equal to the mid-point of the 5 to 5-3/4 per cent range newly adopted by the Committee.

When incoming data during the latter

part of May suggested that May-June growth in both M1 and M 2 would be near the upper ends of the Committee's ranges, the Desk raised its funds rate objective to 5-1/2 per cent.

Subsequent data tended to confirm this projec-

tion of M2 growth, but indicated that M1 growth might be weaker than earlier believed. Under the circumstances, the Desk has continued to seek a Federal funds rate averaging about 5-1/2 per cent. (3) Nonborrowed reserves in the May-June period appear to be increasing at about a 3-1/2 per cent annual rate, on average, rather than decreasing slightly as the staff had thought would be consistent with the short-run ranges for the monetary aggregates adopted by the FOMC at its last meeting.1/

Since the banking system held more free reserves (excess

reserves minus borrowings) than anticipated, this growth rate did not support more monetary expansion than expected.

With Federal funds generally trading

around the 5-1/2 per cent discount rate, member bank borrowing did nonetheless increase and averaged about $125 million in the interval between Committee meetings, as compared with about $50 million in the preceding two months. 1/

A discussion of the actual behavior of nonborrowed reserves in the weeks between meetings relative to the behavior that was expected to be consistent with the Committee's short-run targets for monetary growth may be found in Appendix A.

(4)

Since the May

FOMC meeting, private short-term interest

rates have generally increased 1/4 to 1/2 of a percentage point, on balance, while Treasury bill rates have changed little.

Most of the increase in

private rates occurred in late May and early June, as the Federal funds rate rose.

When the funds rate subsequently stabilized around the 5-1/2

per cent level, and published data indicated a substantial slowdown of growth in M1 the upward movement of rates stopped. The spread between private short-term rates and Treasury bill rates widened, in part reflecting some firming in business demands for short-term credit while the Treasury continued to redeem maturing bills in its weekly auction.

The volume

of commercial paper increased modestly further in May. Business loans at banks also rose a little over this period, and banks-perhaps expecting a further increase in business loans and rising interest rates--have increased their outstanding CD's. (5)

Bond yields continued to move higher in late May, but

declined in June as short-term markets stabilized, and on balance were down a little over the intermeeting period.

The bond markets have absorbed

a substantial volume of new corporate and municipal issues in recent weeks. Treasury borrowing activity over the period was less heavy than had previously been projected by the Treasury--reflecting an unexpected shortfall in outlays--but was still on the large side for the period of the year. Although yields in the secondary mortgage market have moved in sympathy with bond market rates, rates in the primary market for home loans have continued to edge upward in the past few weeks. Net acquisitions of

-4-

mortgages by savings and loan associations remained at a relatively high level in April, and loan commitments increased to their highest level in 3 years. (6)

The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual

rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time

periods.

Past

Calendar

Twelve

Y____a_Months 1975

Past

Six

Past

Three

Past Month

Months

May '76

over

May '75

Nov. '15

Peb. '75

Apr.'76

May '76

Nonborrowed reserves

1.3

-.2

-2.6

1.2

Total reserves

-.4

-2.2

3.7

Monetary Base

5.8

6.9

6.7

8.8

6.9

4.1

5.4

5.1

9.0

6.0

8.5

10.0

10.5

10.9

8.8

11.3

12.3

11.9

12.1

M4 (M2 plus CD's)

6.4

6.5

5.7

6.0

2.8

M5 (M3 plus CD's)

9.7

9.8

8.7

8.9

6.5

(bank credit proxy adj.)

3.9

2.9

-3.9

Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/

4.4

5.2

4.1

5.9

5.2

-.6

-1.4

-2.3

-2.4

-3.2

-,2

0.4

0.3

Concepts of Money (Revised Series) M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/

M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks

other than large CD's) M3 (M plus deposits at thrift institutions)

10.4

Bank Credit

Total member bank deposits

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in

billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (7)

Three alternative sets of short-run specifications for

the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate are summarized below for Committee consideration.

(More detailed data, as well as longer-run

growth rates, are shown in the tables on pp. 6a and 6b, while reserve aggregates believed to be consistent with these specifications are presented in appendix Table I.) Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Ranges for June-July

4½-8½

4-8

3½-7½

7-11

6½-10½

5½-9½

Federal funds rate (intermeeting range)

4½-5½

5-6

5½-6½

(8)

If the Federal funds rate between now and the next meeting

of the Committee remains around the recently prevailing 5½ per cent--the mid-point of the alternative B range--the staff would expect that the annual rate of M1

growth may be in a 4-8 per cent range over the June-July period.

In light of the data already reported for the early part of the month, growth in June is expected to be around a 5 per cent annual rate.

Such a

growth rate may reflect, in part, continued adjustment by cash-holders to the April bulge in M1 growth.

Recently available deposit ownership survey

figures suggest that much of the April increase was in balances of consumers, who may take a longer time than busineses and other holders to restore their balances to desired levels.

The staff expects M1 growth in July to be at

a somewhat higher rate, in view of the projected rise in nominal GNP.

-6aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1976

May June July

303.2 304.5 306.6

303.2 304.5 306.3

303.2 304.5 306.0

697.0 702.0 707.6

697.0 701.9 706.8

697.0 701,8 705.5

1151.0 1160.6 1170.2

1151.0 1160.4 1169.1

1151.0 1160.1 1167.6

1976

QI QII QIII QIV

296.5 303.1 308.1 311.3

296.5 303.1 307.6 310.6

296.5 303.1 307.3 310.4

677.4 697.0 711.7 722.4

677.4 696.9 710.8 721.8

677.4 696.9 709.0 720.6

1116.1 1150.9 1177.4 1195.9

1116.1 1150.8 1176.1 1195.5

1116.1 1150.7 1173.8 1194.3

313.5

731.8

732.9

1214.0

1216.3

1217.3

5.1 8.3

5.1 7.1

5.1 5.9

8.6 9.6

8.4 8.4

8.3 6.3

10.0 9.9

9.8 9.0

9.5 7.8

8.9 6,6 4.2 2.8

8.9 5.9 3.9 3.7

8.9 5.5 4.0 4.0

11.6 8.4 6.0 5.2

11.5 8.0 6.2 6.2

11.5 6.9 6.5 6.8

12.5 9.2 6.3 6.1

12.4 8.8 6.6 7.0

12.4 8.0 7.0 7.7

7.8 3.5

7.5 3.8

7.3 4,0

10.1 5.6

9.9 6.2

9.3 6.7

11.0 6.2

10.8 6.8

10.3 7.4

5.7

8.0

8.2

8.8

9.0

9.1

1977 '-I Growth Rates

Monthly: 1976

June July

Quarterly Average: 1976

1977

QII QIII QIV QI

Semi-annual QI '76-QIII '76 QIII '76-QI '77 Annual

QI '76-QI '77 FOMC longer-run range QI '76-QI '77

44-7

7t-10

9-12 --

-6bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy

M4 Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1976

May June July

765.2 772.5 779.5

765.2 772.3 778.9

765.2 772.1 777.9

1219.1 1231.0 1242.1

1219.1 1230.8 1241.2

1219.1 1230.6 1239.9

515.6 522.0 525.8

515.6 521.9 525.5

515.6 521.9 524.9

1976

QI QII QIII QIV

753.2 767.0 784.7 798.1

753.2 767.0 784.0 797.8

753.2 766.9 782.4 795.6

1192.0 1220.9 1250.4 1271.7

1192.0 1220.8 1249.3 1271,5

1192.0 1220.7 1247.1 1269.2

515.2 518.3 529.6 538.2

515.2 518.3 529.2 538.0

515.2 518.2 528.1 536.2

1977

810.8

811.7

810.1

1292.9

1295.0

1294.4

544.8

545.3

543.7

11.4 10.9

11.1 10.3

10.8 9.0

11.7 10.8

11.5 10.1

11.3 9.1

14.9 8.7

14.7 8.3

14.7 6.9

QII QII QIV QI

7,3 9.2 6.8 6.4

7.3 8.9 7.0 7.0

7.3 8.1 6.7 7.3

9.7 9.7 6.8 6.7

9.7 9.3 7.1 7.4

9.6 8.7 7.1 7.9

2.4 8.7 6.5 4.9

2.4 8.4 6.7 5.4

2.4 7.6 6.1 5.6

Semi-annual QI '76-QIII '76 QIII '76-QI '77

8.4 6.7

8.2 7.1

7.8 7.1

9.8 6.8

9.6 7.3

9.2 7.6

5.6 5.7

5.4 6.1

5.0 5.9

Annual QI '76-01 '77

7.6

7.8

7.6

8.5

8.6

5.7

5.8

5.5

Growth Rates eonthly: 1976

June July

Quarterly Averages: 1976

1977

-7(9) Given the prevailing Federal

funds rate, time deposits

other than large money market CD's are expected to grow over the next two months at an annual rate around 10 per cent. With short-term market rates generally above the 5 per cent passbook rate, interest-sensitive holders, including businesses and state and local governments, may continue to reduce holdings of savings deposits.

However, this may be offset by further

expansion of ceiling-free time certificates of deposit, including largedenomination certificates issued by non-money market banks.

Thus, for

the June-July period, M2 growth may be in a 6½-10½ per cent annual rate

range under alternative B. (10)

In the near-term, if the money market remains stable,

short- and long-term interest rates are likely to change little.

Longer-

term market interest rates could edge down further once the market has

absorbed the very large volume of new corporate and municipal bond offerings scheduled for June.

The Treasury has a very large third-quarter deficit

to finance, but it is expected to end the current fiscal year with a large cash balance and will probably raise the bulk of the new cash it needs later this summer. (11)

Over the longer run, the outlook is still for upward

pressures on interest rates, particularly short-term rates. Credit demands on banks and in short-term markets are expected to strengthen as the year progresses--with consequent upward pressure on CD and commercial paper rates.

And by early winter the Treasury may have to finance itself

-8increasingly outside the banking system, even if some upward adjustment in Regulation Q ceiling rates has been made by then, as we assume.

As may be

seen from appendix Table II, under alternative B the staff would expect a Federal funds rate of around 8 per cent by early next year, given a growth rate in M1 from QI '76 to QI '77 of 5¾ per cent. (12)

The specifications of alternative C include a tightening

of the funds rate over the next few weeks to the mid-point of a 5½-6½ per cent range.

This would clearly entail further upward adjustments in

market rates, with the 3-month bill rate moving to the 6 per cent area and the 3-month commercial paper rate rising to perhaps around 6¼-6½ per cent. However, such a near-term tightening of the money market would tend to moderate the need for restraint as the year progresses, as compared with alternative B.

The funds rate under alternative C would be expected to

peak at around 7¼ per cent by late this year, again assuming a 5¾ per cent

growth rate in M1 over the QI '76-QI '77 period, (13)

Growth in M1 in the June-July period may be in a 3½-7½

per cent, annual rate, range under alternative C, only a little less than under alternative B.

In the short run, member banks could be expected

to offset the greater constraint on nonborrowed reserves that is specified under alternative C by increasing their borrowing through the discount

window, as suggested in appendix Table I. Expansion of M2 over the forthcent coming 2-month period might be in a 5½-9½ per annual

rate range, in

part reflecting reduced inflows to time and savings deposits (other than money market CD's) as funds are increasingly diverted from such accounts to higher-yielding market instruments.

-9(14)

Alternative A assumes an easing in the Federal funds rate

to the mid-point of a 4½-5½ per cent range between now and the next Committee meeting.

Such an easing would encourage more rapid money growth

in the third and fourth quarter than under alternatives B and C.

However,

if the FOMC also wished to constrain longer-run M1 growth to 5¼ per cent, alternative A would entail a more pronounced slowing in the rate of expansion of M1 in early 1977 and a sharper rise in interest rates in late 1976 and early 1977 than would the other two alternatives.

-10-

Proposed directive (15)

Given below is a proposed operational paragraph for the

directive if the Committee wishes to continue formulating its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. No alternatives are presented for this formulation, in the expectation that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the longer-term targets and that at this meeting the Committee will not reconsider those targets.

"Monetary Aggregates" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. (16)

Should the Committee desire to place main emphasis on bank

reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought.

Three alternative "money market" direc-

tives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below. Alternative "Money Market" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money market conditions

moderate with consistent [DEL:

monetary in growth

aggregates] over the

-11period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: achieve]MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: moderate with consistent over the period IMMEDIATELY ahead,

growth in monetary aggregates] PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES

APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative C

To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT FIRMER bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: growth moderate with consistent

monetary in

aggregates]over the

period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

Appendix A Comparison of Actual and "Targeted" Reserves

The table below compares the actual average level of reserves for the 5 week period ending June 23 with the "targeted" level that had been thought consistent with the mid-points of the short-run ranges for the monetary aggregates adopted at the last FOMC meeting. Actual 1/

1 (2+3)

"Targeted"

Difference

Nonborrowed reserves

34,023

33,948

Required reserves

33,952

34,061

-109

3 (4-5)

Free reserves

-113

184

194

162

123

275

34,146

34,223

80,298

80,460

-162

114,444

114,683

-239

4 5 6 (1+5) 7

Excess reserves Member bank borrowing Total reserves Currency

8 (6+7) Monetary base

32 -152 -77

1/ Includes week of June 23, which is partly estimated. As can be seen from the table, nonborrowed reserves during the intermeeting period were $75 million higher than "targeted."

Relative

to expectations, these reserves were employed to support more free reserves in the banking system (line 3) rather than more required reserves (line 2). Member banks held somewhat more excess reserves than anticipated and did not borrow as much as had been thought consistent with the "targeted" reserves and monetary aggregates.

At the same time, required reserves were

A-2 about $110 million weaker than expected in the five week period, owing to weaker than anticipated demand deposits at member banks as well as a slightly higher multiplier relationship between lagged deposits at member banks and current required reserves (given changes in the mix of deposits). With borrowing falling considerably short of "target," total reserves

were smaller than anticipated during the intermeeting period.

The

monetary base was even further below "target," as currency in circulation turned out to be substantially smaller than expected. Achievement of the nonborrowed "target" during the period by the Desk would have resulted in a higher Federal funds rate, perhaps around the On the other

upper end of the 5-5¾ per cent range adopted by the FOMC.

hand, if the Desk had attempted to reach "targeted" levels of total reserves or the monetary base, the funds rate would have been lower than actually prevailed--and much lower in the case of the monetary base.

Appendix Table I

Reserve Measures Consistent With Short-run Alternatives (seasonally adjusted) Average of 4 weeks June 23 to July 14

Change from average of previous 5-week period

($ million) Alt. A

Alt. B

($ million) Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B 232

197

Alt. C

34,343

34,265

34,093

310

Member bank borrowing

105

168

325

-23

Excess reserves

166

158

149

-97

-105

-114

34,448

34,433

34,418

288

273

Monetary base1/

115,155

115,140

115,126

843

Nonborrowed monetary base

115,050

114,972

114,801

866

Nonborrowed reserves

2-month Annual Percentage Growth Rate for June-July

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

8.4

6.6

1.0

258

7.7

7.1

6.4

828

814

7.3

7.1

6.9

788

617

7.5

7.0

5.3

Other reserve aggregates: Total reserves

Total reserves plus currency held outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and member banks.

Appendix Table II

Projected Federal Funds Rates

1976

QII QIII

QIV 1977

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) (Revised Series)

M 1973

3.6

7.4-

7.3

9.2

8.4

10.3

10.1

6.4

9.9

8.2

9.8

8.5

III

1.8

5.5

6.3

7.9

6.1

7.8

5.1

10.5

9.0

9.9

8.4

QIV '72-QIV '73

6.0

6.2

8.8

9.0

1974

5.3

6.0

9.0

9.6

8.4

8.9

5.3

5.6

6.9

7.4

5.7

6.5

III

3.0

4.2

5.5

6.4

5.2

5.6

4.7

4.0

6.6

6.4

7.2

6.5

QIV '73-QIV '74

4.7

5.0

7.2

7.7

6.8

7.1

1975

1.4

0.6

6.9

5.6

9.0

7.5

9.7

7.4

12.5

10.2

14.5

12.6

III

3.6

7.1

6.5

10.1

10.7

13.3

1.6

2.3

7.0

6.4

QIV '74-QIV '75

4.1

4.4

8.5

8.3

1976

4.3

2.6

11.5

10.1

9.3

9.4

11.3

11.1

12.6

11.4

M - Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q - Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

CHART 1

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II -FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1

6/18/76

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -l 320

310

305

300

295

1974

1975

1976

CHART 2

6/18/76

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

540

520

- 500

480

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ~ 39

TOTAL

NONBORROWED

1974

1975

1976

Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios.

6/18/76

CHART 3

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

F.R. DISCOUNT RATE

PERCENT -1 10

PER CENT -8

INTEREST RATES Long-term -

- 7

FEDERAL FUNDS. RATE

- 5

1975

1976

1975

1976

1975

1976

PER CENT

TABLE

(FR)

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 1

JUNE 18,

1976

BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED REQUIRED RESERVES

BANK RESERVES Period

Total Reserves

Nonborrowed Reserves

Monetary Base

Total Required

Private Demand

Total Time Deposits

Gov't. and Interbank

MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1976--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE

34,003 34,024 34,128 134,305)

33,949 33,980 34,014 (34,175)

112,192 113,333 113,985 (114,880)

33.780 33,869 33,925 (34,072)

19,659 19,763 19,990 (19,932)

11,871 11,931 11,750 (11,844)

(

2,249 2,155 2,185 2,296)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--4TH QTR. 1976-1ST QTR. 2ND QTR.

(

1.4 -6.2 3.6)

(

4.5 -5.3 2.7)

(

7.3 4.6 9.6)

(

0.5 -5.7 3.5)

(

-3.4 -2.0 5.61

(

4.1 -11.0 -0.9)

(

0.6 -3.8 0.6)

2.7 -3.2 0.3)

(

5.6 5.3 8.7)

(

-0.1 -3.6 1.0)

(

-2.1 -1.0 4.1)

(

-0.6 -6.5 -4.3)

(

-1.7 0.7 3.7 6.2)

(

-0.8 1.1 1.2 5.7)

(

7.0 12.2 6.9 9.4)

(

-1.9 3.2 2.0 5.2)

(

-3.4 7.6 12.6 -3.51

(

-4.6 6.1 -18.2 9.6)

5.0)

(

3.4)

(

8.2)

(

3.6)

(

-4.4)

QUARTERLY-AV 1975--4TH QTR. 1976--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. MONTHLY 1976--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE MAY-JUNE

4.5)

WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1976--MAY

JUNE

NOTE:

5 12 19 26

34,807 33,693 34,187 33,991

34,777 33,638 34,065 33,855

114,355 113,472 114,103 113,843

34,366 33,726 33,942 33,913

20,141 19,945 19,934 20,081

11,790 11,784 11,751 11,719

2,435 1,997 2,257 2,114

2 9 16

34,171 33,967 34,486

33,929 33,874 34,441

114,366 114,254 114,994

33,757 34,010 33,864

19.857 19,914 19,992

11,704 11,759 11,821

2,195 2,337 2,051

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

ASSOCIATED

WITH CHANGES

RESERVE

REQUIREMENT

RATIO.

Table 2

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 1976II-FOMC JUNE 18,CLASS

MONETARY AGGREGATES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Narrow Broad (M2)

Period _____(M1)

Adjusted Credit Proxy

Total U.S. Govt. Deposits

Total

Time and Savings Deposits Ot er Than Ci'S Other avings Total 6

Nondeposit ondeposit Member Bank Sources of U.S.Govt. Deposits Funds

MONTHLY LEVELS-SBIl 1976--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE

298.0 301.7 303.2 (304.5)

683.4 691.9 697.0 (701.91

516.0 517.3 515.6 (521.9)

(

1.6 4.3 8.7)

7.0 11.5 10.8)

(

7.0 1.2 4.61

(

2.3 2.6 8.9)

(

6.4 10.1 11.5)

(

6.0 2.3 2.4)

6.1 14.9 6.0 5.1)

(

8.7 14.9 8.8 8.4)

5.6)

8.7)

458.5 461.6 462.0 (467.8)

385.4 290.2 393.8 (397.4)

173.5 176.7 179.3 1179.8)

211.9 213.5 214.5 (217.61

(

12.9 5.4 8.1)

(

11.6 17.1 12.5)

15.8 32.4 14.5)

(

8.2 5.6 10.8)

(

9.7 7.8 6.2)

(

9.8 15.9 13.7)

(

14.4 28.3 22.0)

(

6.6 6.7 6.8)

9.5 -29.3 -31.1)

(

0.9 3.0 -3.9 14.7)

(

3.1 8.1 1.0 15.1)

(

11.0 14.9 11.1 11.0)

(

23.3 22.1 17.7 3.3)

(

0.6 9.1 5.6 17.3)

(

-35.0 -29.5 -53.8 40.5)

5.3)

(

8.1)

(

11.1)

(

10.5)

(

11.5)

-7.6)

(

11.0 7.2 7.4 9.4)

73.2 71.4 68.2 ( 70.51

(

8.2 7.5 7.6 7.8)

(

2.5 2.5 2.3 3.3)

X ANNUAL GROWTH

---*---------QUARTERLY 1975--4TH QTR. 1976--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR.

(

19.2 -46.8 -14.8)

QUARTERLY-AV 1975--4TH QTR. 1976--1ST QTR. 2NO QTR. MONTHLY 1976--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE MAY-JUNE WEEKLY LEVELS-SBIL 1976--MAY

JUNE

NOTE: 1/ P -

5 12 19 26 2 9 P

302.5 304.6 303.1 302.9

694.5 698.2 697.3 697.6

515.7 516.4 515.1 517.1

6.8 6.3 7.3 9.2

461.0 461.8 461.7 462.7

391.9 393.6 394.1 394.7

178.4 179.3 179.8 179.8

213.5 214.3 214.4 214.9

69.1 68.2 67.6 68.0

7.3 7.6 7.8 7.8

1.7 1.9 2.5 3.1

304.1 303.9

699.6 700.6

516.3 521.4

8.7 8.2

464.2 466.3

395.5 396.7

179.6 179.7

215.9 217.0

68.7 69.6

7.4 7.7

2.8 4.5

DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE PRELIMINARY

BANKS.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JUNE 18, 1976

1/ TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted)

Period 1972 1973 1974 1975

Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Over 1 - 5 5 - 10 10

Treasury Bills Net Change 2/

Within 1-year

-490 7,232 1,280 -468

87 207 320 337

789 579 797 3,284

539 500 434 1,510

Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Over 1 - 5 5 - 10 10

Total

Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/

Total

Within 1-year

167 129 196 1,070

1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202

46 120 439 191

592 400 1,665 824

253 244 659 460

168 101 318 138

1,059 864 3,082 1,613

285

584

508

-2

3,076

230

1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267

Net RP's 6/ -1,358 -46 -154 1,272

1975--Qtr. I

-2,093

1,054

625

312

2,024

169

Qtr. II

1,086

218

1,135

454

273

2,079

Qtr. III Qtr. IV

-757 1,294

13 74

712 385

201 234

171 315

1,096 1,006

64 58

514 141

106 71

63 14

747 284

1,060 2,626

2,392 -1,403

-363

115

554

226

156

1,052

102

288

108

535

1,022

1,256

1975--Dec.

1,784

118

297

2,096

1,219

1976--Jan. Feb.

-1,596 1,275

37 40

110 366

100 63

73 59

321 528

26 76

139 149

47 61

27 11

-1,030 2,029

3,597 -3,129

Mar.

-42

203

Apr. May

513 -292

27 -

179 --

51 --

38 -

294 --

-140

-57

-240

7 14 21 28

-1,593 -501 800 1,008

-27 -

-70 -249 -

--51 --

-38 --

-70 364 --

--- --- --- -----

5 12 19 26

240 -626 298 597

--- -----

--3

--140

2 9 16

-572 -302 949

--- --- --

1976--Qtr. I

1976--Apr.

May

June

23p 30

-----

--- 28

387

112

591

-2

240 297

788

758 -122

1,261 -958

-1,678 -521 1,166 988

-7,764 5,064 5,206 -1,002

--240

242 -634 277 792

-2,077 522 605 -1,115

-587 -310 911

-5,170 -1,068 5,443

Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). 1/ 2/ 3/

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JUNE 18, 1976 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars)

Member Bank Reserve Positions Basic Reserve Deficit Borrowing at FRB**

Underwriting Syndicate Positions Municipal Corporate Bonds Bonds

U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions

Excess** Reserves

Bills

Coupon Issues

(1) 7,029 1,586

(z)

8 New York (8)

38 Others (9)

2,845 253

-7,387 -1,757

-11,632

1976--High Low

6,821 *3,668

1,684 *175

249 34

622 -106

-6,686 -2,367

-12,660

1975--May June

4,744

5,201

1,752 1,351

170 118

155 201

-3,965 -5,821

- 9,567 - 9,344

July

4,321 4,020 5,008

1,246 1,204 588

135 181 122

188 195 191

-5,546 -3,964 -3,551

- 9,896

Aug. Sept.

Oct. Nov. Dec.

5,766 4,751 4,822

1,480 2,073 1,075

123 173 103

161 251 265

-2,644 -3,812 -2,811

- 9,202

1976--Jan. Feb.

4,959 5,214 5,910

1,220

97 181 151

232 256 223

-3,581 -4,138 -4,726

- 9,746

5,750 *4,239

605 *591

133

155 123p

-5,179 -4,426p

-10,783 2 - 8, 59p

6,725

669

14 21

6,821

158 97 139 136

123 173 130

-5,819 -6,686

6,190 4,100

773 611 405

112

-5,016 -3,533

-10,533 -12,660 -11,856

4,309 4,620 3,915 *3,668

548 949 509 *470

137

441 -33 245 78

-4,214 -6,126 -4,789 -3,183

- 7,390 - 9,329

*5,266 *5,052 *5,777

*175 *636

414p -43p

-3,235 -5,490p 914 -4, p

- 7,605 4

Period

1975--High Low

Mar.

Apr.

May 1976--Apr.

28 May

5 12 19

26 June

---NOTE:

__ _

2 9 16 23 30 _

1,051 778

236 175 249 199 223 206p

*522

Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. agreements maturing in 16 days or more,

Seasonal

Total

622p

- 7,207

- 7,390

- 9,966 - 9,015

-10,159 -10,418

-10,015 - 9,640

- 9,215

- 8,523

- 8,124

-10,46 p - 8,848p

Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase

are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term.

Underwriting syndicate positions

consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. *STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

**Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JUNE 18,

1976

TABLE 5

SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per cent)

1-year (3) 7.31 5.46

Short-Term 90-119 Day Commercial Paper (4) 8.43 5.38

Treasury Bills Federal Funds

CD's New Issue-NYC 60-Day (5) 7.88 5.25

90-Day (6) 7.75 5.38

Aaa Utility Recently New Issue Offered (7) (8) 9.80 9.71 9.06 8.89

Municipal Bond Buyer (9) 7.67 6.27

Long-Term U.S. Govt. (20yr. Constant Maturity) (10) 8.63 7.63

FNMA Auction Yield (11) 9.95 8.78

GNMA Guaranteed Securities (12) 9.10 7.93

1975--High Low

7.70 5.13

90-Day (2) 6.68 5.02

1976-1igh Low

5.54 4.70

5.53 4.73

6.32 5.35

5.90 5.00

5.63 4.75

5.75 4.88

8.95 8.38

8.94 8.44

7.13 6.54

8.17 7.80

9.20 8.83

8.45 8.00

1975--May June

5.22 5.55

5.23 5.34

5.91 5.86

5.70 5.67

5.44 5.34

5.63 5.51

9.63 9.25

9.65 9.33

6.97 6.94

8.22 8.04

9.27 9.09

8.51 8.34

July Aug. Sept.

6.10 6.14 6.24

6.13 6.44 6.42

6.64 7.16 7.20

6.32 6.59 6.79

6.05 6.31 6.44

6.25 6.63 6.81

9.41 9.46 9.68

9.43 9.49 9.57

7.06 7.17 7.44

8.17 8.50 8.57

9.14 9.41 9.78

8.50 8.75 8.97

Oct. Nov. Dec.

5.82 5.22 5.20

5.96 5.48 5.44

6.48 6.07 6.16

6.35 5.78 5.88

6.08 5.69 5.65

6.45 6.03 5.83

9.45 9.20 9.36

9.43 9.26 9.23

7.39 7.43 7.31

8.35 8.28 8.23

9.80 9.80 9.31

8.87 8.50 8.56

1976-Jan. Feb. Mar.

4.87 4.77 4.84

4.87 4.88 5.00

5.44 5.53 5.82

5.15 5.13 5.25

4.91 4.84 5.05

5.03 5.06 5.20

8.70 8.63 8.62

8.79 8.63 8.61

7.07 6.94 6.92

8.01 8.03 7.97

9.10 9.06 9.05

8.37 8.29 8.30

Apr. May

4.82 5.29

4.86 5.20

5.54 5.98

5.08 5.44

4.81 5.25

4.94 5,38

8.48 8,82

8.52 8.77

6.60 6.87

7.86 8.13

8.89 9.04

8.10 8.30

Period

(i)

1976-Apr.

7 14 21 28

4.73 4.77 4.78 4.93

4.94 4.84 4.74 4.87

5.69 5.42 5.40 5.57

5.20 5.10 5.03 5.00

4.88 4.75 4.75 4.88

5.00 4.88 4.88 5.00

-8.42 8.38 8.58

8.50 8.44 8.54 8.57

6.65 6.54 6.55 6.55

7.84 7.80 7.84 7.94

8.94 8.83 -

8.15 8.00 8.16 8.09

May

5 12 19 26

5.03 5.02 5.28 5.50

4.88 5.04 5.21 5.44

5.65 5.79 6.01 6.20

5.13 5.25 5.43 5.68

5.00 5.13 5.38 5.50

5.13 5.25 5.50 5.63

8.68 8.82 8.82 8.95

8.62 8.78 8.83 8.84

6.71 6.83 6.91 7.03

8.03 8.15 8.16 8.17

8.94 -9.13 --

8.16 8.16 8.44 8.44

June

2 9 16 23 30

5.54 5.44 5.47

5.53 5.46 5.40

6.32 6.17 6.07

5.81 5.88 5.90

5.63 5.63 5.63

5.75 5.75 5.75

8.83 8.71 8.69p

8.80 8.76 8.72p

6.89 6.86 6.85

8.08 8.04 8.02p

9.20 -9.14

8.44 8.39 8.34

Daily-June 10

5.47

5.43

6.11

5.88

5.57p

5,38

6.09

5.88

_. ..

8.01

8.04(6/16)

NOTE: eekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week,averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 and 10, the weekly date is the aid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 8 and 9 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 12 is a 1-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. CNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling.

APPENDIX TABLE 1-A

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

Period

Total Loans M2 and MI InvestSments 7 6 5 4 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

Adj. Credit proxy

1973 1974 1975

11.1 8.9 10.0

11.9 8 .9 9.7

7.8

7.1

7.0

6.9 5.7

9.5 10.0

9.4 9.5

14.5 10.7 9.3

7.7 3.0 8.4

10.8 8.6 11.3

10.1 7.5 11.3

Total

Nonborrowed

Monetary Base

6.7 7.1

6.0 9.2

10.2

1.3

3.9

19.3

6.1

3.9

6.1

6.2

4.5 3.1

5.6 2.6

9.8 6.8

11.9 10.1

5.3 -0.8 7.0

9.7 3.6 1.6

12.5 6.5 7.0

ANNUALLY:

-0.4

1976

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

BANK CREDIT MEASURES

BANK RESERVES y

JUNE 18,

8.8 6.8 11.3

11.6 10.6 6.4

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF

1974

1ST HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975

4.2 -1.2

1.7

0.3

0.9

1.3

-0.1 -2.8

QUARTERLY: 2ND OTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

1975 1975 1975

-0.8

1.4

4.5

1ST QTR. 1976 QUARTERLY-AV

-6.2

-5.3

1.2

4.3

11.5

12.6

5.0

7.7

2ND QTR. 1975 3RD QTR. 1975 47H QTR. 1975

-1.4 0.1

-0.4 2.7

3.6 1.4 6.0

7.4 7.1 2.3

10.2 10.1 6.4

12.6 13.3 9.4

5.6 5.7 6.7

8.7 10.7 9.9

8.7 9.5 9.6

1976

-3.8

-3.2

2.3

2.6

10.1

11.4

5.7

8.7

1975--MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

-11.6 12.2 -3.2 -3.1 3.9 -6.3 9.7 0.8

-10.1

11.4 14.2 3.7 5.3 1.6 -0.8 9.0 -3.2

13.4 16.5 9.5 5.7 4.2 5.3 11.5 4.0

14.9 17.4 13.2 10.3 8.5 8.7 11.9 7.1

6.2 12.9 5.1 -0.5 4.3 7.9 11.7 5.3

9.4 14.9 11.9 7.0 6.5 10.3 14.3 8.9

8.6 13.5

14.3 -1.6

1.0 12.7 -3.3 -4.3 5.2 5.9 14.4 0.7

1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY P

-10.2

-8.4 -6.9 -0.8 1.1 1.2

-0.7 3.5 0.9 3.0 -3.9

1.2 5.7 6.1 14.9 6.0

10.7 14.9 8.7 14.9 8.8

11.9 14.7 10.8 14.7 10.4

3.5 7.0 4.3 10.9 2.8

7.1 8.2 7.7 12.2 6.9

7.1 8.0 7.8 12.3 7.7

1ST QTR.

0.6

-1.9

MONTHLY:

NOTES: 1/ P -

-6.8

-1.7 0.7 3.7

6.5 -5.8 0.0

-2.6 0.8

I UIaI .a-~ ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS RELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQU: PRELIMINARY

I SUBJECT

aTO RESERVE

I I&I REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANK-

10.6 6.0 5.7 10.1 14.3 9.1

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES JUNE 18,

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BANK CREDIT MEASURES A

BANK RESERVES

Total

n borrowed

Monetary ary Base

A. Adj. Credit proxy

32,390 34,693 34,539

31,092 33,966 34,409

96,051 104,892 110,930

449.4

34,143 34,490

34,077 34,263

106,647 107,833

501.2

JULY AUG. SEPT.

34,399 34,310 34,421

34,098 34,099 34,024

OCT. NOV. DEC.

34,239 34,515 34,539

1976-JAN. FEB. MAR.

Period

Total Loans and Investments 5

1976

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

637.7 695.2 725.5

270.5 283.1 294.8

571.4 612.4 664.3

919.5 981.6 1092.9

634.9 702.2 747.2

982.9 1071.4 1175.8

1093.7 1191.0 1310.3

1132.0 1232.7 1351.9

506.5

705.3 709.7

287.6 291.0

633.7 642.4

1025.3 1040.2

718.8 726.5

1110.4 1124.3

1232.4 1247.7

1276.3 1290.7

108,254 108,694 108,949

505.1 503.3 505.5

710.3 713.6 717.2

291.9 293.2 293.6

647.5 650.6 652.9

1051.6 1060.6 1068.1

729.6 729.3 731.9

1133.7 1139.3 1147.1

1260.1 1267.5 1274.4

1302.1 1308.6 1314.8

34,048 34,455 34,409

109,279 110,287 110,930

508.0 514.1 514.4

721.0 726.9 725.5

293.4 295.6 294.8

655.8 662.1 664.3

1075.8 1086.5 1092.9

736.7 743.9 747.2

1156.6 1168.3 1175.8

1285.3 1300.6 1310.3

1325.9 1341.7 1351.9

34,245 34,052 34,003

34,167 33,971 33,949

111,171 111,538 112,192

514.1

727.6 731.2 735.4

295.1 296.5 298.0

670.2 678.5 683.4

1103.7

515.6 516.0

1117.2 1127.3

749.4 753.8 756.5

1182.9 1192.6 1200.5

1318.0 1327.0 1335.5

1359.9 1369.0 1377.9

34,024 34,128

33,980 34,014

113,333 113,985

517.3 515.6

738.7 741.9

301.7 303.2

691.9 697.0

1141.1 1151.0

763.4 765.2

1212.5 1219.1

1349.1 1356.9

1392.0 1400.9

33,805 34,095 34,107

33,744 34,056 34,049

112,937 113,906 113,760

517.9 519.6 515.2

302.8 303.3 301.9

692.9 693.0 693.5

765.1 763.9 763.2

34,807 33,693 34,187 33,991

34,777 33,638 34,065 33,855

114,355 113,472 114,103 113,843

515.7 516.4 515.1 517.1

302.5 304.6 303.1 302.9

694.5 698.2 697.3 697.6

763.6 766.4 764.8 765.6

34,171 33,967

33,929 33,874

114,366 114,254

516.3 521.4

304.1 303.9

699.6 700.6

768.3 770.2

ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975

495.3

514.4

MONTHLY: 1975--MAY JUNE

APR. MAY P

WEEKLY:

1976--APR. 14 21 28 MAY

JUNE

NOTES:

5 12 19 26 2P 9P

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLO TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUDATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. TION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

JUNE 16,

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period

Currency

D 2

Time

Total Tite

Demand

Mutual

Savings

Other Tan

Time .

Deposits Deits 3

Short

Credit Union

Savings

CD's

s and S L Shares her 4 5 6 7 (Per cent anual rates of growth)

Saving 8

Term Commercial U.S. Gov't Paper

Y Securities Tem CShares 9 10

ANNUALLY: 8.5 5.6 15.8

45.6 41.4 -7.7

31.3 11.9 19.5

39.3 9.1

20.2

8.0

6.1

11.5

20.9

4.4

7.8 7.8

13.4 10.4

15.2 15.2

20.9

17.6

-12.7 -2.9

6.7 31.3

5.7 -6.5

9.9 2.9 -1.1

6.3 2.6 12.9

14.6 8.9 11.6

17.7 17.4 12.5

20.6 17.0 17.6

-25.4 -23.8 19.2

7.0 19.2 41.3

-C.1 -24.2 11.9

2.4

5.4

17.1

14.3

16.8

-46.6

-3.6

8.1 10.2 8.7

5.3 3.0 2.6

16.2 15.0 7.9

11.4 9.4 12.2

1974

9.9

2.1

10.6

1ST HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975

9.4 7.6

4.4 0.9

9.2 5.6 9.4

1973 1974 1975

13.8

12.1

-0.5

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF

QUARTERLY: 2ND QTR. 1975 3RD QTR. 1975 4TH QTR. 1975

10.9

1ST QTR. 1976

7.7

QUARTERLY-AV: 9.3 -23.7 -1.0

2ND QTR. 1975 3RD QTR. 1975 4TH QTR. 1975

8.1 8.5 8.4

6.9 6.6 0.2

4.5 4.7 9.7

12.5 12.7 9.8

16.2 18.2 14.0

21.0 18.6 16.5

-24.5 -27.5 9.5

-2.8 26.4 23.5

1ST 01Q.

9.8

0.4

7.8

15.9

13.4

17.1

-29.3

12.3

9.7

1975-MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OLT. NOV. OEC.

12.1 13.7 5.1 10.1 1.7 10.0 13.2 4.9

11.1 14.4 3.3 3.8 1.6 -4.3 7.1 -5.9

3.1 12.0 5.8 -3.8 5.8 13.7 13.5 11.0

15.1 18.4 14.0 6.4 6.0 10.7 13.6 10.1

17.2 18.9 18.9 17.7 14.9 13.5 12.4 11.3

20.3 19.9 15.7 19.4 15.2 18.8 14.8 18.3

-44.8 -14.1 -28.5 -48.2 4.6 27.3 13.4 16.1

-2.1 23.1 53.6 27.6 -23.2 21.6 63.8 34.9

-13.5 -24.6 -25.1 -28.5 -20.4 3.0 17.8 14.6

1976-J AN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY P

8.1 14.6 9.6 15.9 9.4

-1.1 3.8 4.3 14.6 4.8

5.3 7.7 3.1 8.1 1.0

18.2 21.4 11.0 14.9 11.1

13.4 14.7 14.2 14.1 13.3

18.0 10.7 21.1 6.9 6.9

-53.6 -57.6 -35.0 -29.5 -53.8

3.6 -19.6 5.4 21.6 15.9

8.7 5.7 8.6 17.0 27.9

1976

MONTHLY:

1/ P -

GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY.

AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED

BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT

MONTH AND END OF

1976

JUNE 18,

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

1976

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period

Currency

Time Total-Time Demand otal Other Time De Depdit Than Deposits Deposits CD ____

Mutual Mu" I Credit Savings Credit Bank Un on ank Union and S & L Shares Shares 1 5 6

61.5 67.8 73.7

z09.0 215.3 221.0

364.4 419.1 452.4

300.9 329.3 369.6

323.5 341.6 395.5

1975--MAY JUNE

70.2 71.0

217.4 220.0

431.2 435.5

346.1 351.4

JULY AUG. SEPT.

71.3 71.9 72.0

220.6 221.3 221.6

437.6 436.2 438.3

OCT. NOV. DEC.

72.6 73.4 73.7

220.8 222.1 221.0

1976--JAN. FEB. MAR.

74.2 75.1 75.7

CD's D

Savings

Bonds

Short Short Term Commercia U.S. Gov't Panel Securiies 1, 9 10

Non-

os deposit Funds F unds

U.S. U

Gov't IDemand

Demand

24.7 27.7 33.3

63.5 89.8 82.9

60.4 63.3 67.2

50.3 56.3 67.3

38.3 41.8 41.6

6.o 6.4 8.4

5.0 3.4 3.0

361.8 367.5

30.1 30.6

85.1 84.1

o4.8 65.1

57.1 58.2

43.9 3 .0

7.. 7.0

2.5 3.2

355.5 357.4 359.2

373.3 378.8 383.5

31.0 31.5 31.9

82.1 78.8 79.1

65.6 65.9 66.2

60.8 62.2 61.0

42.1 41.1 40.4

6.8 7.0 7.0

2.6 2.8 3.0

443.3 448.3 452.4

362.4 366.5 369.6

387.8 391.8 395.5

32.4 32.8 33.3

80.9 81.8 82.9

66.6 66.9 67.2

62.1 65.4 67.3

40.5 41.1 41.6

7.9 8.2 8.4

3.0 3.9 3.0

220.8 221.5 222.3

454.4 457.3 458.5

375.2 381.9 385.4

399.9 404.8 409.6

33.8 34.1 34.7

79.2 75.4 73.2

67.6 68.0 68.3

67.5 66.4 66.7

41.9 42.1 42.4

7.9 8.0 8.2

2.6 2.6 2.5

76.7 77.3

225.0 225.9

461.6 462.0

390.2 393.8

414.4 419.0

34.9 35.1

71.4 68.2

68.6 69.0

67.9 68.8

43.0 44.0

7.5 7.6

ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975

MONTHLY:

APR. MAY P

.5 2.3

WEEKLY: 1976-APR.

14 21 28

76.6 77.2 76.9

226.1 226.0 225.0

462.3 460.6 461.3

390.1 389.7 391.6

72.2 70.9 69.7

7.2 8.0 7.6

2.5 3.6 1.9

MAY

5 12 19 26

77.1 77.3 77.4 77.2

225.5 227.2 225.8 225.7

461.0 461.8 461.7 462.7

391.9 393.6 394.1 394.7

69.1 68.2 67.6 68.0

7.3 7.6 7.8 7.8

1.7 1.9 2.5 3.1

77.6 77.8

226.5 226.1

464.2 466.3

395.5 396.7

68.7 69.6

7.4 7.7

JUNE

1/ P -

2P 9P

ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE PRELIMINARY

LEVELS DERIVED

BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT

MONTH AND

END OF

MONTH REPORTED DATA.

.6 4.5

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1976, June 21). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760622

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19760622,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1976},
  month = {Jun},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760622},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}