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Content last modified 6/05/2009.
Strictly Confidential (FR)
Class I FOMC
July 16, 1976
MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS
Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC
July 16, 1976
MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent Developments
(1) M1 declined at a 1.2 per cent annual rate in June.
Although
growth is expected to resume in July, expansion over the June-July period is now projected at only a 2½ per cent annual rate, below the 3½ per cent lower bound of the Committee's operating range.
Growth in M2 slowed to a
5¼ per cent annual rate in June, mainly because of the weakness in M1.
How-
ever, expansion in the time and savings deposit component of M 2 also slowed somewhat; passbook savings declined and growth in small-denomination time deposits slackened, but there was a partially offsetting increase in large non-negotiable CD's.
These shifts apparently were prompted by the higher
interest rates generally available on market instruments and on bank CD's following the increases of May. However, growth in bank time and savings deposits (other than CD's) strengthened considerably in early July, and for the June-July period, M2 is now projected to expand at a 7¾ per cent rate, close to the mid-point of the Committee's range.
Deposit growth slowed
in June at thrift institutions also. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over June-July Period (SAAR in per cent) Ranges
Latest Estimates
M1
3½ to 7½
2.6
M2
6 to 10
7.7
Memo:
Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)
Avg. for statement
week ending June 23
5.45
30
5.58
7 14
5.37 5.27
July
-2(2) In the week following the June 22 Committee meeting, incoming data suggested that over the June-July period M1 and M2 would expand at rates not far from--although slightly below--the mid-points of their respective ranges. Accordingly, the Desk aimed at reserve availability consistent with maintaining the then-prevailing Federal funds rate of 5-1/2 per cent. The projected growth rates in the aggregates were lowered in the two subsequent weeks, however, and the Desk became more accommodative in its reserve provision, seeking to move the Federal funds rate toward 5-3/8 per cent in the July 7 statement week and toward 5-1/4 per cent in the July 14 week.
Data becoming available in the current statement week have tended to support the expectation of a low M1 growth rate, but the projection for M2 has been raised somewhat.
Under the circumstances, the Desk is continuing to aim for
an average funds rate around 5-1/4 per cent. (3) Nonborrowed reserves appear to be increasing in the JuneJuly period at about a 4-1/2 per cent annual rate, less than the rate the staff had thought would be consistent with the mid-points of the short-run ranges for the monetary
aggregates adopted by the FOMC at its last meeting.1 /
This shortfall is due entirely to the slower-than-expected growth in demand deposits, and therefore, in required reserves. The shortfall would have been even greater had not the average level of excess reserves in the period been raised substantially above projections by an unusually large buildup of excess reserves during the July 7 statement week. 1/ Appendix A contains a discussion of the actual behavior of nonborrowed reserves in the weeks between the June and July meetings relative to the behavior that was expected to be consistent with the Committee's short-run ranges for monetary growth. (As indicated, the comments in the text above apply to the 2-month June-July period.)
(4) Short-term interest since the June Committee meeting.
rates have fallen 20 to 40 basis points Following a period of stability in late
June, most rates began to move down near the end of the month, and they declined further in early July as market participants responded to the decline in the Federal funds rate. Business short-term credit demands expanded somewhat in June for the second successive month, but the rise was confined to the commercial paper market; businesses resumed their paydown of bank debt.
The Treasury continued to run off bills in its weekly auctions
in June and early July.
However, with borrowing needs substantially greater
in the third quarter than in the second quarter, the Treasury has gradually reduced the volume of bills redeemed weekly and it has announced that it will roll over all maturing issues in next Monday's bill auction.
(5) The declines in short-term rates in early June were accompanied by reductions in bond yields of about 5 to 15 basis points.
Bond
markets also were favorably influenced by the data that became available during the period on prices and economic activity and by the prospect of a greatly reduced calendar of new corporate and municipal bond issues in July and August.
For home mortgages, interest rates in the primary market
continued to edge higher until early July. (6) The table on the following page shows (in terms of percentage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various
time periods.
SJune
Past Past Six Calendar Twelve ..,Months ar .....MMnths ._. e June '76 June '76 over over 1975 '75 Dec. '75
Past Three Months June '76 over Mar. '75
Past Month June '76 over May '76
Nonborrowed reserves
1.3
-.2
-1.2
3.1
6.6
Total reserves
-.4
-.4
-1.2
3.9
7.0
Monetary Base
5.8
6.3
6.7
8.8
6.9
4.1
4.1
5.6
6.7
-1.2
8.5
9.0
10.8
9.8
5.2
11.3
11.4
12.0
11.0
7.5
(M2 plus CD's)
6.4
6.1
6.3
7.6
8.5
M 5 (M3 plus CD's)
9.7
9.3
9.0
9.5
9.4
Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.)
3.9
3.1
3.1
4.9
Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/
4.4
4.7
4.9
4.3
2.1
-.6
-1.1
-2.1
-.9
2.4
-.2
.1
.5
.6
.8
Concepts of Money M 1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ 12 (Ml plus time deposits at commercial banks
other than large CD's) M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) M
Bank Credit 16.3
Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in
billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper
Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 1/ 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month
figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.
Prospective developments (7)
Shown below for the Committee's consideration are three
alternative sets of longer-run growth ranges for the monetary aggregates, together with the current ranges for the QI '76 to QI '77 period adopted by the Committee in April. from QII '76 to QII '77.
The alternatives pertain to the one-year period More detailed figures, including quarterly average
levels and growth rates based on mid-point paths, are shown in the tables on pages 5a and
5b.
Projected patterns for the Federal funds rate are
shown for the three alternatives in Appendix table II.
M1
Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. C
Current
5½ to 8
4½ to 7
3½ to 6
4½ to 7
6½ to 9
7½ to 10
M2
9 to 11½
7½ to 10
M3
9½ to 12½
8 to 11
Credit Proxy
5½ to 8½
5 to 8
(8)
7 to 10 4½ to 7½
9 to 12 6 to 9
Of the three alternatives, B encompasses the current range
for M1, which is centered on a 5¾ per cent growth rate.
The current 7
to 10 per cent range for M 2 appears to be generally consistent with that M1 range.
However, on the basis of recent experience, it appears that the
pattern of gradually rising short-term interest rates anticipated under B would lead to a slowing of inflows to thrift institutions more consistent
with an 8 to 11 per cent range for M3.
In connection with the M 3 range,
it might be noted that the Committee did not reduce the upper bound at its
April meeting when it lowered the upper limits for M1 and M2.
-5aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1
M2
Alt. A
Alt..B
Alt. C
Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. C
Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. C
1976
June July August
303.0 304.6 306.5
303.0 304.6 306.3
303.0 304.6 306.0
700.2 706.2 712.8
700.2 706.2 712.1
700.2 706.2 711.4
1158.4 1169.4 1182.0
1158.4 1169.4 1180.9
1158.4 1169.4 1179o7
1976
QII
302.7 306.5 312.3
302.7 306.3 311.3
302.7 306.0 310.2
696.4 712.8 732.2
696.4 711.9 728.0
696.4 711.1 724.9
1150.2 1181.8 1217.1
1150.2 1180.4 1209.4
1150.2 1179.1 1203.7
318,1 323.3
316.0 320.1
313.5 316.9
749.7 765.9
742.3 756.3
736.7 748.7
1247.8 1276.6
1233.9 1258.5
1224.7 1246.5
10.3 10.0
10.3 8.8
11.4 12.9
11.4 11.8
11.4 10.6
8.4 7.8
11.0 11.9
10.5
10.1 8.3
QIII QIV QI
1977
QII Growth Rates Monthly: 1976
July August
6.3 7.5
6.3 6.7
6.3 5.5
10.3 11.2
5.0 7.6
4.8 6.5
4.4 5.5
10.9
6.0 5.2
4.3 4.3
9.6 8.6
6.5 6.5
10.1 9.2
8.1 8.0
7,.0 7.1
6.3 7.0
5.7 5.7
5.0 4.3
10.3 9.2
8.2 6.6
11.6 9.8
10.3 8.1
9.3 7.1
7.3 6.8
6.6 5.7
5.7 4.7
10.7
8.8 7.5
11.8 11.0
10.6 9.4
9.7 8.4
Quarterly Average: QIII
1976
QIV QI QII
1977
Semi-annual QII '76-QIV '76 QIV '76-QII '77
9.4
9.8
Annual
QI '76-QI '77 QII '76-QII '77
10,0
-5bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. C
Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. C
Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. C
1976
June July August
770.8 776.9 783.6
770.8 776.9 783.2
770.8 776.9 782.5
1229.0 1240.1 1252.8
1229.0 1240.1 1252.0
1229.0 1240.1 1250.9
522.3 523.5 528.4
522.3 523.5 528.1
522.3 523.5 527.8
1976
QII
766.5 783.6 803.6
766.5 783,1 800.6
766.5 782.4 798.2
1220.3 1252.6 1288.4
1220.3 1251.6 1282.0
1220.3 1250.4 1277.1
518.3 527,7 537,7
518.3 527.5 536.2
518.3 527.1 534.7
822.7 841.7
817.2 834.5
813.2 829.4
1320.7 1352.4
1308.8 1336.7
1301.2 1327.3
546.1 555.3
543.0 551.2
540.8 548.7
2.8 11.2
2.8 10.5
QIII QIV 1977
QI
QII reamth Rates Monthly: 1976
July August
9.5 8.6
10.8 12.3
10.8
10.8
11.5
10.5
8.7 8.9
8.3 8.1
10.6 11.4
10.3 9.7
9.9 8.5
7.6
7.1 6.6
6.8 5.8
8.3 8.5
7,5 8.0
10.0 9.6
8.4 8.5
7.5 8.0
6.2 6,7
5.1 6.0
4.6 5.8
8.9 8.5
8.3 7.8
11.2 9.9
10.1 8.5
9.3 7.9
7.5 6.5
6.9 5.6
6.3 5.2
8.5 8.9
8.0 8.2
10.8 10.8
9.8 9.5
9.2 8.8
6.0 7.1
5.4 6.3
5.0 5.9
9.5 10.3
Quarterly Averages: 1976
QIII QIV
1977
QI QII
8.9 10.2
7.3
Semi-annual QII '76-QIV '76 QIV '76-QII '77
Annual QI '76-Q1 '77 QII '76-QII '77
-6(9) Alternatives A and C
call for longer-run M1 ranges one
percentage point higher and lower, respectively, than that shown under alternative B.
Alternative C would compensate for the second-quarter
overshoot in M 1 , in that M1 would be expected to reach roughly the same level in the first quarter of 1977 as that implied by a 5¾ per cent growth rate measured from the first quarter of 1976.
To reach this level, M1
would have to expand at about a 4¾ per cent annual rate over the three quarters ending with the first quarter of 1977.
(10)
Short-run operating ranges corresponding generally to the
longer-run alternatives are summarized below. Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. C
M1
5 to 9
4½ to 8½
4 to 8
M2
9 to 13
8 to 12
7½ to 11½
4¼ to 5¼
4¾ to 5¾
Ranges for July-August
Federal funds rate
1/
5¼ to 6¼
(intermeeting period) (11)
Alternative B assumes a Federal funds rate range over the
next four weeks centered on 5¼ per cent, the Desk's most recent objective; alternatives A and C assume some easing and some tightening, respectively. Under all three alternatives, growth in M1 is expected to pick up appreciably in the July-August period, on the assumption that various factors which appear to have depressed M1 balances in June--despite rising nominal GNP--will no longer be operating.
These factors include the lagged
1/ Reserve aggregates thought to be consistent with these ranges are shown in Appendix table I.
-7adjustment of money balances to desired levels following the April surge, the unusually heavy use by corporations of demand deposit balances to make tax payments in June, and an unexpected and probably temporary slowing in currency growth.
Also, a draw-down in the first half of July of the
Treasury's unusually high end-of-June cash balance may add, at least temporarily, to private demand balances. (12)
Under alternative B, the annual rate of growth of M1 in the
July-August period is expected to be in a 4½ to 8½ range.
(On average from
the second to the third quarter, M 1 is expected to grow at only a 4¾ per cent annual rate for arithmetic reasons--specifically, because the second quarter average is high relative to the June level.)
Given the projection
for nominal GNP, if growth in M1 over the QII '76-QII '77 period is to be constrained to 5¾ per cent--the mid-point of the alternative B longer-run growth range--it is likely that short-term interest rates would have to begin moving up later in the summer.
Under this alternative, the funds rate
is expected to reach 7 per cent in early 1977 and to rise marginally further in the spring. (13)
If the funds rate remains around 5¼ per cent over the next
four weeks, short-term interest rates are unlikely to change significantly. Inflows of time and savings deposits other than negotiable CD's at banks can be expected to be higher than in June as a result of the declines in interest rates since mid-year.
Over the July-August period, M2 might
expand at an annual rate in an 8 to 12 per cent range.
As the year pro-
gresses, however, rising market rates would probably slow net inflows of
-8time and savings deposits somewhat.
The alternative B projection assumes
an upward adjustment in Regulation Q ceilings in early 1977. (14)
Alternative C contemplates a modest tightening of the money
market over the next few weeks, with the Federal funds rate moving to the 5-3/4 per cent mid-point of the funds rate range.
Subsequently, interest
rates undoubtedly would have to rise appreciably further if M1 growth over the QII '76 to QII '77 period is to be constrained to the 4-3/4 per cent
mid-point of the longer-run range. might be around 8-1/4 per cent.
By the spring of 1977, the funds rate
Under these circumstances, inflows of
funds into small-denomination deposits at banks and thrift institutions in the first half of 1977 would be depressed by the greater relative attractiveness of rates on market instruments, even though under this alternative Regulation Q ceilings are assumed to be relaxed in the fourth quarter of 1976. (15)
Alternative A contemplates more rapid growth in the monetary
aggregates over QII '76-QII '77--including a 6-3/4 per cent growth rate for M1 --and some near-term easing of money market conditions, with the funds rate range centering on 4-3/4 per cent.
With economic expansion continu-
ing, however, it would be expected that interest rates would have to begin rising in early fall, with the funds rate reaching 5-3/4 per cent by early 1977 and 6-1/2 per cent in the spring.
Under these conditions, inflows of
interest-bearing deposits would probably accelerate for a time and M2 and M3 would remain quite strong into early winter--before slowing as rates on market securities become more attractive.
(16)
Over the July-August period, corporate and municipal bond
offerings are expected to recede more than seasonally from their recent high levels.
The Treasury is expected to take advantage of this reduced
forward calendar to continue its debt-lengthening operations.
During the
third quarter the Treasury is expected to raise in the neighborhood of $14 billion of new money, and it appears that about one-half of this amount will be raised in the forthcoming intermeeting period.
In addition, the
Treasury will also have to refund $4.6 billion of publicly held debt maturing on August 15. (17)
Increases in bond yields over the balance of the year are
expected to be relatively small.
Business and other credit demands on
banks can be expected to strengthen somewhat over the second half as inventory and fixed capital expenditures increase and long-term borrowing slows. Under alternative B, and especially under C, banks would be likely to reduce their acquisitions of Treasury securities and to borrow in CD and Eurodollar markets.
Under alternative A, inflows of other deposits should reduce the
need for banks to rely on such sources of funds over the balance of the year.
-10Proposed directive (18)
Presented below are four alternative formulations for
the operational paragraph of the directive.
The first three are couched
in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead and are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section.
The fourth alternative is proposed
in the event that the Committee wishes to formulate its instructions in
terms of money market conditions and to maintain the conditions now prevailing. Alternative "Monetary Aggregates" Proposals Alternative A
To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee
seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions conmoderate]SUBSTANTIAL growth in monetary aggregates sistent with[DEL: over the period ahead. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead.
-11Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with[DEL: moderate]MODEST growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. "Money Market" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: achieve]MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions
[DEL: consistent with moderate growth in monetary
aggregates]over the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT
MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
Appendix A Comparison of Actual and Targeted Reserves The table below compares the actual average level of reserves for the four-week period ending July 21 with the "targeted" level that had been thought consistent with the mid-points of the short-run ranges for the monetary aggregates adopted at the last FOMC meeting. Actual1 / Targeted 1.
(2+3) Nonborrowed reserves
2. 3.
Required reserves (4-5)
Free reserves
Differences
34,428
34,339
89
34,208
34,268
-60
220
71
149
4.
Excess reserves
356
239
117
5.
Member bank borrowing
136
168
-32
34,564
34,506
58
80,505
80,759
-254
115,069
115,265
-196
6. 7.
(1+5) Total Reserves Currency
8. (6+7) Monetary base
As can be seen from the table, even though required reserves were $60 million lower than anticipated during the intermeeting period, non-
borrowed reserves were about $90 million higher than "targeted."
Banks
held more excess reserves and borrowed less than had been thought consistent with the ranges specified for the monetary aggregates.
Required
reserves were below expectations because of weakness in deposits subject to reserves, which was only partly offset by a slightly lower multiplier between lagged deposits and current required reserves. 1/
Includes week of July 21, which is partly estimated.
A -2 Despite the strength in ndnborrowed reserves, total reserves were only slightly larger than anticipated because of the shortfall in member bank borrowings.
The monetary base, however, was well below
"target" because the growth in currency in circulation was much smaller than expected. Achievement of the nonborrowed reserve "target" during the period would have resulted in a higher Federal funds rate, possibly near the upper end of the 5¾ to 5¾ per cent range adopted by the FOMC.
On
the other hand, if the Desk had attempted to achieve the "targeted" monetary base, the Federal funds rate would have been much lower than actually prevailed.
Appendix Table I
Reserve Measures Consistent With Short-run Alternatives (seasonally adjusted) Average of 4 weeks July 28 to August 18 ($ million) Alt. A
Nonborrowed reserves Member bank borrowing Excess reserves
Alt. B
Alt. C
Change from average of previous 4-week period ($ million) Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt.
2-month Annual Percentage Growth Rate for July-August
C
34,491
34,452
34,319
63
53
81
195
-83
-55
183
173
163
-173
-183
34,544
34,534
34,514
-20
-30
-50
115,533
115,523
115,503
464
454
115,480
115,442
115,308
547
509
24
-109
Alt. A 8.2
Alt. B
Alt.
7.1
4.7
6.9
6.6
6.2
434
6.7
6.6
6.5
375
7.1
6.7
6.0
59
--
-193
Other reserve aggregates: Total reserves Monetary base1/ Nonborrowed monetary
base
1/
Total reserves plus currency held outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and member banks.
C
Appendix Table II Projected Federal Funds Rates
1976
QIII
QIV 1977
QI QII
Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. C
4%
5k
6
5
6k
7%
Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) (Revised Series)
M2
M 1973
3
M
Q
M
q
7.4-
7.3
9.2
8.4
10.3
I
3.6
II
10.1
6.4
9.9
8.2
9.8
8.5
III
1.8
5.5
6.3
7.9
6.1
7.8
IV
7.8
5.1
10.5
9.0
9.9
8.4
QIV '72-QIV '73
6.0
6.2
8.8
8.8
8.8
9.0
I
5.3
6.0
9.0
9.6
8.4
8.9
II
5.3
5.6
6,9
7.4
5.7
6.5
3.0
4.2
5.5
6.4
5.2
5.6
IV
4.7
4.0
6.6
6.4
7.2
6.5
QIV '73-QIV '74
4.7
5.0
7.2
7,7
6.8
7.1
1975
1.4
0.6
6.9
5.6
9.0
7.5
II
9.7
7.4
12.5
III
3.6
7.1
6.5
Iv
1.6
2.3
7.0
6.4
QIV '74-QIV '75
4.1
4.4
8.5
8.3
11.3
11.1
1976
4.3
2,6
11.5
10.1
12.6
11.4
6.7
8.4
9.8
11.2
11.0
12.2
1974
III
I
I II
10.2
14.5
12,6
10.1
10.7
13.3
9.3
9.4
M - Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q - Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.
CHART 1
CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II- FOMC 7/16/76
MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1 320
-300
7%% growth for June-July -280
II II
I II II II I II I
I I II I II I
I
I
g
MONEY SUPPLY M2 730
I
-1 710
I
I
I
690
670
650
630
1975
1976
A
M
J 1976
J
A
CHART 2
7/16/76
MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
540
520
500
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
RESERVES
I
I0
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
--
TOTAL
35
NONBORROWED
1975
1976
fotal and nonborrowed reserve series have been adlusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios
CHART 3
7/16/76
MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS
PER CENT
-1
8
_J
4
INTEREST RATES Short-term
PER CENT 1 10
F.R. DISCOUNT RATE
FEDERAL FUNDSI RATE
1975
1976
1975
1976
1975
1976
CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC
TABLE 1
BANK RESERVES
JULY16, 1976
ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period
REQUIRED RESERVES
Total Reserves
Nonborrowed Reserves
Monetary Base
Total Required
Private Demand
Total Time Deposits
Gov't. and Interbank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
34,024 34,136 34.335 (34,388)
33,980 34,022 34,208 (34,278)
113,333 113 994 114,654 (115,106)
33,669 33,927 34,121 (34,125)
19,783 19,990 19,953 (19,894)
11,931 11,750 11.843 (12,017)
MONTHLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1976--APR. MAY JUNE JULY
(
Z'155 2,186 2,325 2,214)
PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--4TH QTR. 1976--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR.
1.4 -6.2 3.9
4.5 -5.3 3.1
7.3 4.6 8.8
0.5 -5.7 4.0
-3.4 -2.0 6.0
4.1 -11.0 -0.9
0.6 -3.6 0.8
2.7 -3.2 0.5
5.6 5.3 8.5
-0.1 -3.6 1.2
-2.1 -1.0 4.2
-0.6 -6.5 -4.4
QUARTERLY-AV 1975--4TH QTR. 1976--1ST OTR. 2ND QTR. MONTHLY 1976--APR. MAY JUNE JULY JUNE-JULY
(
0.7 4.0 7.0 1.9)
(
1.1 1.5 6.6 2.5)
(
4.4)
I
4.5)
I 1
12.2 7.0 6.9 4.7) 5.91
(
3.2 2.1 6.9 0.1)
I
3.5)
(
7.6 12.6 -2.2 -3.5)
(
6.1 -18.2 9.5 17.6)
(
-2.9)
I
13.6)
WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS
NOTE9
1976--JUNE
2 9 16 23 30
34,219 33,939 34,438 34,031 34,963
33,977 33,846 34,389 33,866 34 797
114,420 114,213 114,784 114,389 115,299
33,766 34,009 33,867 34,211 34 498
19,857 19,91. 19,996 19,931 19 999
11,704 11,760 11,821 11,884 11,946
2,205 2,335 2,049 2,396 2553
JULY
7 14
34,855 34,094
34,731 33,920
114,996 114,851
34 200 34,041
19 915 19.820
11,961 12,053
2t324 2.168
RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.
WITH CHANGES
IN
RESERVE
REQUIREMENT
RATIO.
Table 2
CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
MONETARY AGGREGATES
JULY
16, 1976
ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Narrow Broad (Ml) (M2) 1 2
Period
Adjusted Total Credit U.S. Govt. Proxy Deposits 3 4
Nondeposit
Time and Savings Deposits ther Than C Total ings 6 7 8
Total 5
' CD'S 9
e
er
Sources of U.S. ovt. Funds Deposits 10 11
MONTHLY LEVELS-SBIL 1976--APR. MAY JUNE JULY
301.7 303.3 303.0 (304.6)
691.9 697.2 UO0.2
517. 515.3 522.3 (523.)
r'706.Z)
7.2 7.4 9.8 9.0)
461.6 462.0 467.9 1472.4)
390.2 393.9 397.2 (401.61
176.1 179.4 179.3 (180.21
213.5 214.5 217.9 (221.5)
71.4 68.2 70.6 ( 70.7)
(
7.5 7.6 8.4 8.41
(
2.5 2.3 3.7 2.91
X ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975-4TH QTR. 1976--ST QTR. 2ND QTR.
1.6 4.3 6.7
7.0 11.5 9.8
7.0 1.2 4.9
12.9 5.4 8.2
11.6 17.1 12.2
15.8 32.4 13.4
8.2 5.6 11.3
19.2 -46.8 -14.2
2.3 2.6 8.4
6.4 10.1 11.2
6.0 2.3 2.4
9.7 7.8 6.2
9.8 15.9 13.7
14.4 28.3 21.7
6.6 6.7 7.0
9.5 -29.3 -30.6
14.9 6.4 -1.2 6.3)
(
14.9 9.2 5.2 10.3)
(
3.0 -4.6 16.3 2.8)
(
8.1 1.0 15.3 11.5)
(
14.9 11.4 10.1 13.3)
(
22.1 18.3 -0.7 6.0)
9.1 5.6 19.0 19.8)
(
-29.5 -53.8 42.2 1.7)
2.6)
1
7.71
(
9.5)
(
13.51
(
11.7)
(
2.71
19.6)
(
22.0)
QUARTERLY-AV 1975--4TH QTR. 1976-15T QTR. 2ND QTR. MONTHLY 1976--A PR NAY JUNE JULY JUNE-JULY
(
( (
WEEKLY LEVELS-SBIL 1976--JUNE
JULY
NOTE:
1/ P -
2 9 16 23 30 7 P
304.2 304.0 303.7 301.9 301.7
699.7 700.6 701.3 699.5 701.2
516.4 520.6 524.2 522.9 522.7
8.7 8.2 9.3 10.3 10.4
464.2 466.3 468.0 468.7 471.5
395.5 396.6 397.6 397.7 399.5
179.6 179.7 179.2 179.2 179.2
215.9 216.9 218.4 218.4 220.2
68.7 69.7 70.4 71.1 72.0
7.4 7.7 8.4 9.1 8.8
2.8 4.5 5.3 3.8 2.5
304.3
705.1
522.6
9.5
472.4
400.9
179.7
221.2
71.5
8.5
2.2
-1-DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL PRELIMINARY
-I RESERVE
I
BANKS.
-
-
CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JULY 16, 1976
TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted)
Treasury Bills Net Change 2/
Period 1972 1973 1974 1975
Within 1-year
Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Over 10 0 5 - 1 1 - 5
Total
Within 1-year 46 120 439 191
-490 7,232 1,280 -468
87 207 320 337
789 579 797 3,284
539 500 434 1,510
167 129 196 1,070
1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202
Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Over 10 5 5 - 10
1-
592 400 1,665 824
253 244 659 460
168 101 318 138
-2
--
Total
Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/
Net RP'6/
1,059 864 3,082 1,613
1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267
-1,358 -46 -154 1,272
1,086
218
1,135
454
273
2,079
-
--
-2
3,076
230
Qtr. III Qtr. IV
-757 1,294
13 74
712 385
201 234
171 315
1,096 1,006
64 58
514 141
106 71
63 14
747 284
1,060 2,626
2,392 -1,403
1976--Qtr. I Qtr. II
-363 2,067
115 109
554 796
226 245
156 134
1,052 1,284
102 3
288 140
108 57
38 40
535 240
1,022 3,371
1,256 1,654
1976--Jan. Feb.
-1,596 1,275
37 40
110 366
100 63
73 59
321 528
26 76
139 149
47 61
27 11
240 297
-1,030 2,029
3,597 -3,129
Mar.
-42
38
78
63
24
203
-
-
--
--
--
23
788
Apr. May June
513 -292 1,845
27 -83
179 617
51 195
38 -96
294 -990
3 -
140 --
-57 --
-40 --
-240 -
758 -122 2,735
1,261 -958 1,351
3
-140
---57
-40
--240
242 -634 277 792
-2,077 522 605 -1,115
--- --- --- -587 -310 911 1,484 1,240
-5,170 -1,068 5,443 -147 3.157
--
--
-
-481 -791
-3,126 -1,003
1975--Qtr. II
1976--May
June
July
5 12 19 26
240 -626 298 597
--
--- --- -----
--- -
2 9 16 23 30
-572 -302 949 909 861
28 55
--387 229
---112 83
--64 32
--591 399
--
------
7 14
-472 -783
-
--- --- --- --
-
-
-
21 28 1/ Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).
CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JULY 16, 1976 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS
(millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions
Underwriting Syndicate Positions
Member Bank Reserve Positions Basic Reserve Deficit at FRB**
__Borrowing
Corporate
Municipal
Excess**
Period
Bills (1)
Coupon Issues (2)
Bonds (3)
Bonds (4)
Reserves (5)
Total (6)
Seasonal (7)
8 New York (8)
38 Others (9)
1975--High Low
7,029 1,586
2,845 253
464 0
389 48
804 -42
609 17
74 5
-7,387 -1,757
-11,632 - 7,207
1976--High Low
6,821 3,668
1,684 175
334 0
249 34
655 -106
242 24
29 8
-6,686 -2,367
-12,660 - 6,695
1975--June
5,201
1,351
89
118
201
227
11
-5,821
- 9,344
July Aug.
4,321 4,020
1,246 1,204
60 44
135 181
188 195
259 211
17 37
-5,546 -3,964
- 9,896 - 9,966
Sept.
5,008
588
31
122
191
397
58
-3,551
- 9,015
Oct. Nov. Dec.
5,766 4,751 4,822
1,480 2,073 1,075
14 156 95
123 173 103
161 251 265
189 60 130
65 29 14
-2,644 -3,812 -2,811
- 9,202 -10,159 -10,418
1976--Jan. Feb.
4,959 5,214
1,220 1,051
34 66
97 181
232 256
79 81
9 10
-3,581 -4,138
- 9,746 -10,015
Mar.
5,910
778
43
151
223
54
8
-4,726
- 9,640
Apr. May June
5,750 4.239 *4,996
605 591 *582
69 95 100
133 199 196
155 210 258p
43 114 132p
10 11 20p
-5,179 -4,402 4 2 - , 70p
-10,783 - 8,151 - 8,943p
137 236 175 249
441 -33 245 78
30 55 122 136
11 9 10 11
-4,214 -6,126 -4,789 -3,183
-
1976--May
5 12 19 26
4,309 4,620 3,915 3,668
548 949 509 470
110 65 70 135
June
2
5,266
175
10
199
453
242
17
-3,235
- 7,605
9
5,052
636
30
223
-70
93
12
-5,370
-10,581
16 23
5,777 *4,445
522 *561
25 334
201 160
571 -180
49 165
-4,916 -3,701
- 9,561 - 9,559
30
*4,495p
*793
213
204
p
16 6p
16 22
-3,154
- 6,908
55p 52p
124p 177 p
26p 23 p
July
7 14 21 28
*5,263 *5,630
*1,264 *1,015
228 2 15p
146 135p
46 5 6
2
9p
28
-5,0 p -6.126p
7,390 9,329 8,523 8,124
- 7,880p 6 5 -10, 1p
NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Feder funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. *STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
**Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JULY 16, 1976
TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per cent)
Short-Term Federal Funds (1)
90-Day (2)
1-Year (3)
90-119 Day Commercial Paper (4)
1975--High Low
7.70 5.13
6.68 5.02
7.31 5.46
1976--High Low
5.58 4.70
5.53 4.73
June
5.55
July
Treasury Bills
Long-Term
II CD's New Issue-NYC
I
Aaa Utility Recently New Offered Issue (8) (7)
Municipal Bond Buyer (9)
U.S. Govt. (20yr. Constant Maturity) (10)
FNMA Auction Yield (11)
GNMA Guaranteed Securities (12)
60-Day (5)
90-Day (6)
8.43 5.38
7.88 5.25
7.75 5.38
9.80 8.89
9.71 9.06
9.95 8.78
9.10 7.93
6.32 5.35
5.90 5.00
5.63 4.75
5.75 4.88
8.95 8.38
8.94 8.44
9.20 8.83
8.45 8.00
5.34
5.86
5.67
5.34
5.51
9.25
9.33
9.09
8.34
Sept.
6.10 6.14 6.24
6.13 6.44 6.42
6.64 7.16 7.20
6.32 6.59 6.79
6.05 6.31 6.44
6.25 6.63 6.81
9.41 9.46 9.68
9.43 9.49 9.57
9.14 9.41 9.78
8.50 8.75 8.97
Oct. Nov. Dec.
5.82 5.22 5.20
5.96 5.48 5.44
6.48 6.07 6.16
6.35 5.78 5.88
6.08 5.69 5.65
6.45 6.03 5.83
9.45 9.20 9.36
9.43 9.26 9.23
9.80 9.80 9.31
8.87 8.50 8.56
1976--Jan. Feb. Mar.
4.87 4.77 4.84
4.87 4.88 5.00
5.44 5.53 5.82
5.15 5.13 5.25
4.91 4.84 5.05
5.03 5.06 5.20
8.70 8.63 8.62
8.79 8.63 8.61
9.10 9.06 9.05
8.37 8.29 8.30
4.82 5.29 5.48
4.86 5.20 5.41
5.54 5.98 6.12
5.08
5.44 5.83
4.81 5.25 5.55
4.94 5.38 5.68
8.48 8.82 8.72
8.52 8.77 8.73
8.89 9.09 9.13
8.10 8.33
5 12 19 26
5.03 5.02 5.28 5.50
4.88 5.04 5.21 5.44
5.65 5.79 6.01 6.20
5.13 5.25 5.43 5.68
5.00 5.13 5.38 5.50
5.13 5.25 5.50 5.63
8.68 8.82 8.82 8.95
8.62 8.78 8.83 8.84
8.94
8.16 8.16 8.44 8.44
2 9 16 23 30
5.54 5.44 5.47 5.48 5.58
5.53 5.46 5.40 5.36 5.34
6.32 6.17 6.07 6.06 6.08
5.81 5.88 5.90 5.85 5.68
5.63 5.63 5.63 5.50 5.38
5.75 5.75 5.75 5.63 5.50
8.83 8.71 8.69 8.70 8.72
8.80 8.76 8.70 8.74 8,67
Period
Aug.
Apr. May June 1976--May
June
July
7 14 21 28
Daily-July 8 15
5.37 5.27
5.38 5.21
6.03 5.75
5.39 2 5. 5p
5.33 5.11
5.87 5.67
5.50 5.25
5.63 5.38
8.58 8.53 p
8.57 8.53p
9.13
6.89 6.86 6.85 6.87 F,87 6.78 6.78
8.35
9.20
8.44 8.39
9.14
8.34
8.34 9.12
8.34
7.98 7.95p
7.98 7.96 (7/14)
VKOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 8 and 9 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 12 is a 1-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FHMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FRA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 baris points below the current WFA/VA ceiling.
APPENDIX TABLE 1-A
MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES
BANK RESERVES
JULY 16,
1976
MONEY STOCK MEASURES
Total
Period Total 1
orr
borrowed
onedary
Base Sments
2
Adj. Credit
Loans and
M1
M
4
5
6
7
proxy
Invest-
M3
M4
M5
6
M7
9
10
10
111
11
12
11.6 t.4
10.6 9.0 9.7
11.1 8.9 10.0
11.9 8.9 9.7
9
Z
(Per cent annual rates of growth) ;,NNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975
6.7 7.1 -0.4
6.0 9.2 1.3
7.7 9.2 5.8
0.5 0.2 3.9
13.8 9.2 4.4
6.0 4.7 4t.1
5.6 5.7
4.5 3.1
4.2
5.6 2.6
10.1
6.9 5.7
9.9 9.2
9.5 10.0
9.4
4.5
8.7
8.. 7. 8.
8.8 6.8 11.3
10.6
SEM1-ANNUALLY: 11.9
1'S HALF 2ND HALF
1975 1975
-1.2
0.3
1.7 0.9
1ST
1916
-1.2
-1.2
6.7
3.1
4.9
5.6
12.0
6.3
9.0
6.5
1975 1975
-0.8 1.4
-2.8 4.5
4.1 7.3
-0.8
3.0 8.4
8.1 10.0
8.6 11.3
11.3
-6.2 3.9
-5.3 3.1
4.6 8.6
7.7
7.7
9.2
9.6
0.1 0.6
-1.9 2.7
6.3 5.6
0.8
-3.2 0.5
5.3 8.5
12.2 -3.2 -3.1
6.5 -5.8 0.0
12.7 -3.3 -4.3
0.8 14.3 -1.6
13.3 4.7 4.9 2.6 3.6 11.1 7.0
-8.4 -6.9 -0.8 1.1 1.5 6.6
2.6 4.0 7.0 12.2 7.0 6.9
-0.7
3.5
3.5 0.9 3.0 -4.6 16.3
5.9
HALF
9.5
C!UARTERLY: 3R~D; TR. 41H WTR.
1976 1ST OTR. 2ND QTR. 197b OUART ERLY-AV: 3RD fiTR. 4TH OTR.
1975 1975
15) QTR. 2ND QTR.
1976 1976
-3.8
4.2
3.6
10.7
7.0
4.6
1.6
9.3
1.2
5.5
4.3
4.9
4.3
6.7
12.6 11.0
5.0 7.6
1.4 6.0
4.4
7.1 2.3
13.3 9.4
5.7 6.7
2.3 2.4
3.8
2.6 8.4
11.4
5.7 7.1
14.2 3.7 5.3 1.6 -0.8 9.0 -3.2
17.4 13.2 10.3 8.5 8.7 11.9
12.9 5.1
7.1
5.3
1.2 5.7 6.1 14.9 6.4
11.9 14.7 10.8
3.5 7.0
6.0 5.4
12.2
8.4 9.5
10.1 9.4
7.5
9.9
9.5 9.6
8.6 9.5
8.7 8.S
8.7 9.2
15.0 10.0 5.9 8.2 9.9 12.1 7.7
14.9 11.9 7.0 6.5 10.3 14.3 8.9
13.5
7.2 9.8 7.9 12.0 6.8 9.4
7.1 8.2 7.7 11.1 6.4
7.1 8.0 7.8 11.3 7.0
9.7
10.3
10.7
MONTHLY: 1975--JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE P
NOTES: 1/ P -
3.9
-6.3 9.7 0.8 -10.2 -6.8 -1.7
0.7 4.0 7.0
-2.6
5.2 5.9 14.4
0.7
7.5 1.0 5.9 5.7 6.4
9.8 -2.3
6.9 5.4 5.4 2.1
14.7 10.6 7.5
-1.2
** ** *aa m ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT RELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. PRELIMINARY
*
TO RESERVE
-0.5
4.3 7.9 11.7
4.3
10.9 3.1 8.5
Ij j I REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANK-
10.6
6.0 5.7 10.1 14.3 9.1
APPENDIX TABLE 1-B
MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES
JULY 16,
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Period Total
1
MONEY STOCK MEASURES
BANK CREDIT MEASURES
BANK RESERVES
on borrowed
Monetary Base
Adj. Credit proxy
2
3
4
I
Total Loans and Investments 5
1976
M1
M
M
M4
M5
M6
M7
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975
32,390 34,693 34,539
319092 33,966 34,409
96,051 104,892 110,930
449.4 495.3 514.4
637.7 695.2 725.5
270.5 283.1 294.8
571.4 612.4 664.3
919.5 981.6 1092.9
634.9 702.2 747.2
dZ .9 1071.1 1175.8
1093.7 1191.0 1310.3
113 .0 12j2 .7 1351.9
34,490
34,263
107,833
506.5
709.7
291.0
642.4
1040.2
7.6.5
LL124.3
1.47.7
1290.7
JULY AUG. SEPT.
34,399 34,310 34,421
34,098 34,099 34,024
108,254 108,694 108,949
505.1 503.3 505.5
710.3 713.8 717.2
291.9 293.2 293.6
647.5 650.6 652.9
1051.6 1060.6 1068.1
729.6 729.3 731.9
1133.7 1139.3 1147.1
1260.1 1267.5 1274.4
1302.1 1308.6 1314.8
OCT. NOV. DEC.
349239 34,515 34,539
34,048 34,455 34,409
109,279 110,287 110,930
508.0 514.1 514.4
721.0 726.9 725.5
293.4 295.6 294.8
655.8 662.1 664.3
1075.8 1086.5 1092.9
736.7 743.9 747.2
1156.6 1168.3 1175.6
1:25.3 1300.6 1310.3
1325 .9 1341.7 1351.9
34,245 34,052 34,003
34,167 33,971 33,949
111,171 111,538 112,192
514.1 515.6 516.0
727.6 731.2 735.4
295.1 296.5 298.0
670.2 678.5 683.4
1103.7 1117.2 1127.3
749.4 753.8 756.5
1182.9 1192.6 1200.5
1318.0 1327.0 1335.5
1359.9 1369.0 1377.9
34,024 34,136 34,335
33,980 34,022 34,208
113,333 113,994 114,654
517.3 515.3 522.3
38.7 742.0 743.3
301.7 303.3 303.0
691.9 697.2 700.2
1141.1 1151.2 1158.4
763.4 765.4 770.8
1212.5 1219.4 1229.0
1347.9 1355.1 1366.1
1390.9 1399.0 1411.0
12 19 26
33,693 34,187 33,991
33,638 34,065 33,855
113,472 114,103 113,843
516.4 515.1 517.1
304.6 303.1 302.9
698.2 697.3 697.6
766.4 764.8 7t5.6
JUNE
2 9 16 23 30P
34,219 33,939 34.438 34,031 34,963
33,977 33,846 34,389 33,866 34,797
114,420 114,213 114,784 114.389 115,299
516.4 20.6 524.2 522.9 522.7
304.2 304.0 303.7 301.9 301.7
699.7 700.6 701.3 699.5 701.2
768.4 770.3 771.7 770.6 773.2
JULY
7P
34,855
34,731
114,996
522.6
304.3
705.1
776.7
MONTHLY: 1975-JUNE
1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE P
WEEKLY:
1976-MAY
ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE AEQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7T TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THR1FT INSTIIUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY
NOTES:
APPENDIX TABLE 2-A
COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period
Currency
Demand os
Total Timet Deposits
utual
ime
Other
Savings Bank nd S & L
Ds S
1
Short
Credit Union Shares1
CD's
Savings Bonds
U.STerm Gov't Commercial CPera Securities Pap
Shares6
2
3
8.1 10.2 8.7
5.3 3.0 2.6
16.2 15.0 7.9
1 1.4 9.4 12.2
8.5 5.6 15.8
9.4 7.6
4.4 0.9
7.8 7.8
13.4 10.4
10.6
4.0
6.9
JULY 16, 1976
1
4 5 6 7 (Per cent annual rates of growth)
8
9
0
10
ANNUALLY 1973 1974 1975
13.8 12.1 20.2
45 41 -7
31.3 11.9 19.5
39.3
15.2 15.2
-12.7 -2.9
6.7 31.3
5.7 -6.5
14.9
13.9
-29.7
1.2
15.9
9.1 -0.5
SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975 1ST HALF 1976 QUARTER LY: 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.
1975 1975
5.6 9.4
2.9 -1.1
2.6 12.9
8.9 11.6
17.4 12.5
-23.8 19.2
19.2 41.3
-24.2 11.9
1ST QTR. 2ND OTR.
1976 1976
10.9 10.0
2.4 5.6
5.4 8.2
17.1 12.2
14.3 13.1
-46.8 -14.2
-3.6 6.0
7.7 23.6
1975 1975
8.5 8.4
6.6 0.2
4.7 9.7
12.7 9.8
18.2 14.0
-27.5 9.5
26.4 23.5
-23.7 -1.0
1ST QTR. 1976 2ND QTR. 1976
9.8 11.7
0.4 7.2
7.8 6.2
15.9 13.7
13.4 13.8
-29.3 -30.6
12.3 0.6
9.7 17.1
1975--JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.
13.7 5.1 10.1 1.7 10.0 13.2 4.9
14.4 3.3 3.8 1.6 -4.3 7.1 -5.9
12.0 5.8 -3.8 5.8 13.7
18.9 18.9 17.7 14.9 13.5 12.4 11.3
-14.1 -28.5 -48.2 4.6 27.3
11.0
18.4 14.0 6.4 6.0 10.7 13.6 10.1
16.1
23.1 53.6 27.6 -23.2 21.6 63.8 34.9
1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE P
8.1 14.6
-1.1 3.8 4.3 14.6 5.3 -3.2
5.3 7.7 3.1 8.1 1.0 15.3
18.2 21.4 11.0 14.9 11.4 10.1
13.4 14.7 14.2 14.1 13.3 11.5
-53.6 -57.6 -35.0 -29.5 -53.8 42.2
3.6 -19.6 5.4 0.0 0.0 18.0
QUARTERLY-AV: 3RD OTR. 4TH QTR.
MONTHLY:
1/ P -
15.9 11.0 3.1
13.5
GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY.
MONTHLY AVERAGE
LEVELS DERIVED
13.4
BY
AVERAGING END
OF CURRENT
-24.6 -25.1
-28.5 -20.4 3.0 17.8 14.6
8.7 5.7 8.6 17.0
25.1 27.3 MONTH AND END OF
JULY
APPENDIX TABLE 2-B
169
1976
COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Demand Currency
Period
Deposits
Total Deposits
Time Other
Mutual Savings
Credit
Thn
Bank and S & L
Union Shares
CD
Short Term U.S. Gotdeposit pe
Savings CD's
nds
Securities
Shares v
;
7
2
3
4
5
6
61.5 67.8 73.7
209.0 215.3 221.0
364.4 419.1 452.4
300.9 329.3 369.6
323.5 341.6 395.5
24.7 27.7 33.3
63.5 89.8 82.9
60.4 63.3 67.2
U.S.
Funds
Gov't Demand
11
12
1
9
8
1
y
Non-
10
ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975
50.3 56.3 67.3
38.3 41.8 41.6
6.6 8.4 8.4
5.0 3.4 3.0
MONTHLYt 1975--JUNE
71.0
220.0
435.5
351.4
367.5
30.6
84.1
65.1
58.2
43.0
7.0
3.2
JULY AUG. SEPT.
71.3 71.9 72.0
220.6 221.3 221.6
437.6 436.2 438.3
355.5 357.4 359.2
373.3 378.8 383.5
31.0 31.5 31.9
82.1 78.8 79.1
65.6 65.9 66.2
60.8 62.2 61.0
42.1 41.1 40.4
6.8 7.0 7.0
2.6 2.8 3.0
OCT. NOV. DEC.
72.6 73.4 73.7
220.8 222.1 221.0
443.3 448.3 452.4
362.4 366.5 369.6
387.8 391.8 395.5
32.4 32.8 33.3
80.9 81.8 82.9
66.6 66.9 67.2
62.1 65.4 67.3
40.5 41.1 41.6
7.9 8.2 8.4
3.0 3.9 3.0
1976--JAN. FEB. MAR.
74.2 75.1 75.7
220.8 221.5 222.3
454.4 457.3 458.5
375.2 381.9 385.4
399.9 404.8 409.6
33.8 34.1 34.7
79.2 75.4 73.2
67.6 68.0 68.3
67.5 66.4 66.7
41.9 42.1 42.4
7.9 8.0 8.2
2.6 2.6 2.5
76.7 77.4 77.6
225.0 226.0 225.4
461.6 462.0 467.9
390.2 393.9 397.2
414.4 419.0 423.0
34.9 35.1 35.3
71.4 68.2 70.6
68.6 69.0 69.3
66.7 66.7 67.7
43.0 43.9 44.9
7.5 7.6 8.4
2.5 2.3 3.7
5 12 19 26
77.1 77.3 77.4 77.2
225.5 227.2 225.8 225.7
461.0 461.8 461.7 462.7
391.9 393.6 394.1 394.7
69.1 68.2 67.6 68.0
7.3 7.6 7.8 7.8
1.7 1.9 2.5 3.1
JUNE
2 9 16 23 30P
77.6 77.8 77.7 77.7 77.6
226.5 226.2 226.0 224.2 224.1
464.2 466.3 468.0 468.7 471.5
395.5 396.6 397.6 397.7 399.5
68.7 69.7 70.4 71.1 72.0
7.4 7.1 8.4 9.1 8.8
2.8 4.5 5.3 3.8 2.5
JULY
7P
77.7
226.6
472.4
400.9
71.5
8.5
2.2
APR. MAY JUNE P WEEKLY: 1976--MAY
1/ P -
ESTIMATED MONTHLY PRELIMINARY
AVERAGE
-
-LEVELS DERIVED
BY AVERAGING
END OF CURRENT
-
-
MONTH AND END OF
In
-
-
PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED
DATA.
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (1976, July 19). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760720
@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19760720,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Bluebook},
year = {1976},
month = {Jul},
howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760720},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}