bluebooks · August 16, 1976

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

August 13, 1976

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

August 13,

1976

CLASS I - FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent Developments (1) Over the July-August period, M1 appears to be expanding at an annual rate of about 6 per cent--the mid-point of the Committee's operating range. around a 10 range.

Growth of M 2 over the same period is now projected at

per cent annual

rate, somewhat above the mid-point of its

Expansion of the time deposit component of M2 in July was somewhat

more rapid than anticipated, reflecting a resumption of savings deposit growth as short-term market interest rates declined.

Deposit inflows to

nonbank thrift institutions also increased sharply during the month.

Non-

borrowed reserves appear to be increasing at only about a 2½ per cent annual rate over the July-August period, as a decline in the outstanding volume of money market CD's of banks released reserves to support other deposits. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over July-August Period (SAAR in per cent) Ranges

Latest Estimates

4 to 8

5.9

7½ to 11½

Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

10.4 Avg. for statement week ending July 21 5.30 5.28 28 5.36 Aug. 4 5.25 11

(2)

Given growth in M1 and M 2 close to the mid-points of the

FOMC's short-run ranges, the Desk has continued to aim at a Federal funds rate of around 5¼ per cent.

With earlier market concern about a

near-term tightening in monetary policy allayed by the stability of the funds rate--as well as by moderate growth in the monetary aggregates and incoming economic data that seemed to indicate less than anticipated strength in the economy--short-term market interest rates declined another 10 to 20 basis points during the intermeeting period.

The prime

rate at major banks was reduced ¼ percentage point to 7 per cent in early August. (3)

Long-term credit markets have also been influenced by a

more optimistic assessment of the interest rate outlook.

Corporate

and municipal bond yields have fallen 15 to 20 basis points since the July Committee meeting, although this partly reflects a moderation in the volume of new offerings coming to market during the period and in immediate prospect.

Mortgage rates have changed little over the

intermeeting period. (4)

The Treasury successfully marketed a substantial volume

of longer-term debt in connection with its mid-August refunding.

redeem $4.5 billion of maturing obligations held by the public and to raise new cash, the Treasury sold $10.6 billion of new securities.

The

refunding package included $2 billion of 3-year notes, $7.6 billion of 10-year notes (increased from $4 billion when subscriptions for the

issue totaled $2444 billion), and $1 billion of

-year bonds.

While

dealers were awarded most of the new bond, they received only minimal allotments of the 10-year note.

In when-issued trading, however, they

have taken a large volume of 10-year securities into their positions. Total dealer positions in Treasury coupon issues are large, but dealers thus far appear to be willing holders as all three new issues are selling at sizable premiums over their issue prices and there is a very sizable positive carry on the longer-term issues. (5)

The table on the following page shows (in terms of

percentage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods.

Calendar Year 1975

Past Twelve Months July '76 over July '75

Past Six Months July '76 over Jan. '76

Past Three Months July '76 over April'76

Past Month July '76 over June '76

Nonborrowed reserves

1.3

-.5

3.2

1.5

Total reserves

-.4

4.2

1.7

Monetary Base

5.8

6.4

7.1

6.4

5.1

M 1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/

4.1

4.4

6.6

4.1

6.7

M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's)

8.5

9.3

11.2

9.1

12.5

M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions)

11.3

11.5

12.4

10.8

13.2

M4 (M2 plus CD's)

6.4

6.5

7.4

7.2

9.8

M5 (M3 plus CD's)

9.7

9.5

9.9

9.6

11.4

Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.)

3.9

3.7

4.9

3.2

Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/

4.4

5.3

5.5

4.8

6.9

-. 6

-1.0

-1.6

-. 6

-.2

Concepts of Money

Bank Credit

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper

-1.0 .1

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (6)

Summarized below for Committee consideration are three

alternative short-run specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate. Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Ranges for August-Sept.1/ M1

4½-8½

8-12

Federal funds rate (intermeeting period) (7)

4¼-5¼

4-8

7½-11½ 4¾-5¾

3½-7½

7-11 5¼-6¼

Longer-run projections of levels and growth rates are shown

in the tables on pp. 5a and 5b.

Under all three alternatives, the monetary

growth rates shown for the QII '76-QII '77 period are around the mid-points of the longer-run ranges adopted by the Committee at its last meeting. Expected behavior of the funds rate between now and mid-1977 under these assumptions is shown in Appendix Table II. (8)

Over the longer-run, the three alternatives would differ

in the distribution of monetary ease or restraint--whether measured by monetary growth rates or interest rate levels--between the second half of 1976 and the first half of 1977.

Alternative A--which involves an

easing of the money market over the next few weeks--encompasses more

monetary ease in the second half of this year than the other two alternatives, and more monetary restraint in the first half of next year.

At the

other end of the spectrum, alternative C--which assumes a tightening of the 1/ Nonborrowed reserves and other reserve aggregates thought to be consistent with these ranges are shown in Appendix table I.

-5a-

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates

1976

1977

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

July August September

304.8 306.1

304,8 306.1 307.9

304.8 306.1 307.7

707.6 712.4 719.2

707.6 712.4 718.8

707.6 712.4 718.2

1172.1 1182.8 1194.9

1172.1 1182.8 1194.4

1172.1 1182.8 1193.7

QII QIII QIV

302.7

306.3 311.5

302.7 306.3 311.1

302.7 306.2 310.6

696.5 713.1 730.9

696.5 712.9 729.9

696.5 712.7 728.4

1150.7 1183.3 1216.0

1150.7 1183.1 1214.4

1150.7 1182.9 1211.9

QI QII

316.1 320.1

315.8 320.1

315.0 320.1

745.0 758.0

744.4 758.4

742.1 756.9

1240.3 1262.5

1239.7 1263.7

1235.3 1260.0

10.8

8.1 9.8

11.0 12.3

11.0 11.8

11.1

11.3

11.3 10.6

11.2 9.8

308,1

Growth Rates

Monthly: 11.0

5.1 7.8

5.1 7.1

5.1 6.3

8.1 11.5

4.8 6.8

4.8 6.3

4.6 5.7

9.5 10.0

9.3 8.8

QII

5.9 5.1

6.0 5.4

5.7 6.5

7.7 7.0

7.5 8.0

8.0 7.2

8.3 7.7

7.7 8.0

Semi-annual QII '76-QIV '76 QIV '76-QII '77

5.8 5.5

5.6 5.8

5.2 6.1

9.9 7.4

9.2 7.8

11.3 7.6

11.1 8.1

10.6 7.9

5.7

8.8

8.7

9.7

9.8

9.5

1976

August September

8.1

Quarterly Average:

1976

QIII

QIV 1977

Annual QII '76-QII '77 FOMC Longer-run Range QII '76-QII '77

4k-7

74-9!

11.1

9-11

-5bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt.

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1976

July August September

777.2 776.8 781.9

777.2 776.8 781.6

777.2 776.8 781,1

1241.6 1247.2 1257.6

1241.6 1247,2 1257.2

1241.6 1247.2 1256.6

523.7 522.0 523.6

523.7 522.0 523.4

523.7 522.0 523.1

1976

QII

766.6 778.6 794.4

766.6 778.5 793.6

766.6 778.4 792.6

1220.7 1248.8 1279.5

1220.7 1248.7 1278.1

1220.7 1248.5 1276.0

518.3 523.1 532.5

518.3 523.0 532.1

518.3 522,9 531.5

812.3 831,0

812.1 831.8

809.8 829.7

1307,7 1335,5

1307.3 1337.0

1303.1 1332.8

539.7 550.2

539.7 550.9

538.1 549.3

QIII QIV 1977

QII Growth Rates Monthly: 1976

August September

-0.6 7.9

-0.6 7.4

-0.6 6.6

5.4 10.0

5.4 9.6

5.4 9.0

-3.9 3.7

-3.9 3.2

-3.9 2.5

Quarterly Averages:

QIV

6.3 8.1

6.2 7.8

6.2 7.3

9.2 9.8

9.2 9.4

9.1 8.8

3.7 7.2

3.6 7.0

3.6 6.6

QI QII

9.0 9.2

9.3 9.7

8.7 9.8

8.8 8.5

9.1 9.1

8.5 9.1

5.4 7.8

5.7 8.3

5.0 8,3

Semi-annual QII '76-QIV '76 QIV '76-QII '77

7.3 9.2

7.0 9.6

6.8 9.4

9.6 8.8

9.4 9.2

9.1 8.9

5.5 6.6

5.3 7.1

5.1 6.7

Annual QII '76-QII '77

8.4

8.5

8.2

9.4

9.5

9.2

6.2

6.3

6.0

1976

1977

QIII

money market between now and the next Committee meeting--focuses monetary restraint more in the second half of this year. between.

Alternative B lies in

The differences among the alternatives, as indexed by growth rates

for M1 and the average level of the funds rate, are summarized in the table below.

M1 growth 2nd half '76 1st half '77 Average level of funds rate 2nd half '76 1st half '77 (9)

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

5¾

5½

5¾ 5¾

5¼ 6

5-3/8 7¼

5½ 6-7/8

6-1/8 6¾

The intermeeting range for the Federal funds rate under

alternative B is centered on 5¾ per cent, the rate recently prevailing. Given the projected increase in nominal GNP at about an 11 per cent annual rate on average over the next few quarters, the staff still expects that interest rates will begin rising fairly soon if longer-run M1 growth is held to around a 5¾ per cent annual rate.

By the second quarter of 1977,

we would expect the funds rate to average around 7¼ per cent. (10)

Under alternative B, M1 is expected to expand in a 4-8 per

cent, annual rate, range over the August-September period and M 2 in a 7½-11½ per cent range.

M1 is expected to increase somewhat more rapidly

in September than in August, in part because of a sharp drop in Treasury balances.

These balances have built up substantially in August, reflecting

the unexpectedly large amount of net new money raised in the recent Treasury financing operation.

(11)

M2 growth is likely to be sustained by sizable inflows of

time and savings deposits other than money market CD's, given continued stability in the funds rate and little change in other short-term rates. The rate of increase in such time deposits may be more rapid in September than in August, when expansion apparently is being restrained by the diversion of funds to purchase the Treasury's new 8 per cent, 10-year note. Over the longer run, the prospective rise in interest rates would likely dampen savings and time deposit flows. spring of 1977,

It appears likely that, by the

Regulation Q ceilings would need to be increased in order

to maintain M 2 and M3 growth rates near the mid-points of their respective longer-run ranges. (12)

Demands on credit markets are expected to be relatively

modest over the next few weeks.

In the August-September period, the

average monthly volume of new issues may amount to only about $1-1/2 billion for publicly offered corporate

bonds, and about $2 billion for state

and local government issues--down from average monthly volumes of about $2-1/2 billion and just under $3 billion, respectively, in the first half

of the year.

There are signs of some pick-up in short-term business credit

demands, but these demands remain relatively light.

However, there is a

very large inventory of U.S. Government securities in dealer hands that has

not yet been distributed to ultimate holders.

Dealers hold $9 bil-

lion in U.S. Government and Federal agency issues, including $1-1/4 billion of the new 10- and 25-year Treasury issues.

(13)

Alternative C involves a tighter monetary policy over the

next few weeks and assumes that the Federal funds rate rises to the midpoint of a 5-1/4 to 6-1/4 per cent range.

Such an increase would be likely

to spark substantial efforts by Government dealers to unload their positions, and would therefore probably lead to considerable short-run upward adjustment in yields on Treasury securities.

The 3-month bill rate might

rise 40 to 60 basis points to the 5-1/2 to 5-3/4 per cent area, and Treasury note and bond yields could increase 20 to 30 basis points.

(14)

While alternative C involves more near-term restraint than

B, the early move toward tightening would work to limit interest rate increases needed over the longer run to maintain M1 growth over the QII '76-QII '77 period at around 5-3/4 per cent.

The staff believes that the

funds rate could peak out at around 6-3/4 per cent during the fall under an alternative C approach.

At such a rate level, it appears that

upward adjustment in Regulation Q may not be needed to enable the Committee to attain its longer-run M 2 and M 3 objectives. (15)

Alternative A assumes an easing of money market conditions

between now and the next meeting--with the funds rate dropping to the midpoint of a 4-1/4 to 5-1/4 per cent range.

Given the outlook for GNP, such

a near-term easing would probably need to be reversed shortly in order to attain a 5-3/4 per cent growth in M1 from QII '76 to QII '77.

If the

reversal were begun in early fall, the funds rate might peak out at around 7-1/2 per cent by the second quarter of 1977, a somewhat higher rate than

under alternative B.

An upward adjustment in Regulation Q ceiling rates

might be required somewhat earlier than under B, perhaps in the winter of next year. (16)

Market reactions to an easing of money market conditions

over the next few weeks are difficult to evaluate.

Downward yield adjust-

ments may be limited by expectations that such an easing is likely to be reversed soon.

On the other hand, if economic news also continues to be

suggestive of a pause in activity, an easing of the money market could be

accompanied by fairly substantial rate declines in short- and long-term markets.

The 3-month bill rate, for example, might well return to around

4-3/4 per cent, its earlier low for the year.

At such a rate, savings

inflows to banks and thrift institutions would probably become even larger. This would exert pressure on these institutions to seek higher yielding

longer-term investments, and thus would place downward pressure on bond yields and also on mortgage rates.

However, some institutions--fearful

of being locked into longer-term securities should there be a reversal of interest rates and a strengthening of credit demands--might elect to reduce time and savings deposit rates, or at least to cut back their advertising for deposits.

-10-

Proposed directive (17)

Given below is a proposed operational paragraph for the

directive if the Committee wishes to continue formulating its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. No alternatives are presented for this formulation, in the expectation that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the Longer-term targets and that at this meeting the Committee will not consider those targets. "Monetary Aggregates" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. Should the Committee desire to place main emphasis on bank

(18)

reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought.

Three alternative "money market" direc-

tives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below. Alternative "Money Market" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in

domestic and international financial markets,

the Committee

seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money market conditions

[DEL: consistent with moderate growth inmonetary aggregates]over the

period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to[DEL: achieve]MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates] over the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT FIRMER bank reserve and money market condiconsistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates]over the tions[DEL:

period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

Appendix A Comparison of Actual and Targeted Reserves The table below compares the actual average level of reserves for the four-week period ending August 18 with the "targeted" level that had been thought consistent with the mid-points of the short-run ranges for the monetary aggregates adopted at the last FOMC meeting. Actual1/

(2+3)

2. 3.

Nonborrowed reserves Required reserves

(4-5)

Free reserves

Targeted

Differences

34,371

34,326

34,335

34,360

-25

-35

Excess reserves

164

163

Member bank borrowing

128

198

-70

34,499

34,523

-24

Currency

80,952

80,989

-37

Monetary base

115,451

115,512

(1+5)

7. 8.

(6+7)

Total reserves

-61

As can be seen from the table, actual nonborrowed reserves turned out to be within $50 million of the "targeted" level.

Banks

held somewhat more free reserves than the staff had expected, almost entirely reflecting a lower level of borrowing than anticipated.

the other hand, actual required reserves were a little below expectations.

This occurred because of more weakness than anticipated in the

outstanding volume of banks' money market CD's.

Includes week of August 18, which is partly estimated.

A-

Total reserves were only slightly weaker than anticipated, but the monetary base was further below "target" because growth in currency was much smaller than expected.

Appendix Table I Reserve Measures Consistent With Short-run Alternatives (seasonally adjusted) Change from average of previous 4-week period ($ million)

Average of 5 weeks Aug. 25 to Sept. 22 ($ million) Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

2-month Annual Percentage Growth Rate for Aug.-Sept.

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

34,412

34,333

34,181

-38

-190

108

243

-79

-20

115

216

200

187

34,461

34,441

34,423

-38

-58

-76

1.8

1.5

1.1

Monetary base-

115,998

115,978

115,961

548

528

511

5.0

4.9

4.8

Nonborrowed monetary base

115,949

115,870

115,718

627

548

396

5.4

5.0

4.2

Nonborrowed reserves Member bank borrowing Excess reserves

3.2

1.8 --- -0.8 --

Other reserve aggregates: Total reserves

Total reserves plus currency held outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and member banks.

Appendix Table II

Projected Federal Funds Rates

1976

1977

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

QIII

5-1/8

QIV

6-5/8

QII

Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) (Revised Series)

Mi 1973

q 10.3

3.6

7.4

7.3

9.2

8.4

10.1

6.4

9.9

8.2

9.8

8.5

III

1.8

5.5

6.3

7.9

6.1

7.8

5.1

10.5

9.0

9.9

8.4

QIV '72-QIV '73

6.0

6.2

8.8

9.0

1974

5.3

6.0

9.0

9.6

8.4

8.9

5.3

5.6

6,9

7.4

5.7

6.5

3.0

4.2

5.5

6.4

5.2

5.6

4.7

4.0

6.6

6.4

7.2

6.5

QIV '73-QIV '74

4.7

5.0

7.2

7.7

6.8

7.1

1975

1.4

0.6

6.9

5.6

9.0

7.5

9.7

7.4

III

3.6

7.1

1.6

QIV '74-QIV '75 1976

III IV

I II

12.5

10.2

14.5

12.6

6.5

10.1

10.7

13.3

2.3

7.0

6.4

4.1

4.4

8.5

8.3

4.3

2,6

6.8

8.4

9.3

9.4

11.3

11.1

11.5

10.1

12.6

11.4

9.9

11.3

11.4

12.4

--- M - Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters.

Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

CHART 1

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1

8/13/76

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320

1976

J 1976

CHART 2

8/13/76

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-540

-520

-500

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

TOTAL

NONBORROWED

1975

1976

Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adlusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios.

CHART 3

8/13/76

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

PER CENT S8

F.R. DISCOUNT RATE

INTEREST RATES Short-term -

PER CENT

WEEKLY AVERAGES

- 7

INTEREST RATES

PER CENT

WEEKLY

FHA MORTGAGES FNMA MONDAY AUCTIOr

EURO-DOLLARS 3-MONTH

PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER

1975

S-4-6 MONTH

FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

1976

Aaa UTILIT' NEW ISSUE

1975

1976

1975

1976

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 1

BANK RESERVES

AUG. 13, 1976

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED REQUIRED RESERVES

BANK RESERVES Period

Total Reserves

Nonborrowed Reserves

Monetary Base

Total Required

Private Demand

Total Time Deposits

Gov't. and Interbank

34,022 34,209 34,252 (34,357)

113,994 114,653 115,145 (115,662)

19,990 19,953 19,952 (20,120)

11,750 11,842 12,004 (11,798)

2,186 2,326 2,200 I 2,380)

MONTHLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS

34,136 34,335 34,384 (34,462)

1976--MAY JUNE JULY AUG.

33,927 34,121 34,156 (34,298)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--4TH QTR. 1976--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR.

1.4 -6.2 3.9

4.5 -5.3 3.1

7.3 4.6 8.8

0.5 -5.7 4.0

-3.4 -2.0 6.0

4.1 -11.0 -1.0

0.6

2.7 -3.2 0.5

5.6 5.3 8.5

-0.1 -3.6 1.2

-2.1 -1.0 4.2

-0.6 -6.5 -4.4

QUARTERLY-AV 1975--4TH QTR. 1976--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR.

-3.8

0.8

MONTHLY 197t--MAY JUNE JULY AUG. JULY-AUG.

(

7.0 6.9 5.1 5.41

(

5.3)

12.6 -2.2 -0.1 10.1)

( (

-18.2 9.4 16.4 ( -20.6)

5.0)

(

-2.2)

WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1976--JULY

7 14 21 28

34,760 34,072 34,324 34,103

34,634 33,896 34,265 33,944

114,939 115,001 115,189 115,085

34,198 34,043 34,096 34,101

19.915 19,835 19,961 19,976

11,959 12,058 12,033 11,997

2,325 2,149 2,102 2,126

1976--AUG.

4 11

35,035 34,227

34,879 34,105

116,004 115,060

34,591 34,266

20,232 20,081

11,936 11,889

2,423 2,296

NOTE:

I-

1---

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

1 CHANGES

RESERVE

REQUIREMENT

RATIO.

Table 2

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES

AUG. 13, 1976

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Narrow Broad (M2) (Ml)

Period

Adjusted Total Credit U.S. Govt Deposits Proxy

697.2 700.3 707.6 (712.4)

515.3 522.3 523.7 1522.0)

Time and Savings Deposts Other Than C*'S ns S Total

Total

_ondeposit

CD C'S

Member Sources of US Govt Deposits Funds

MONTHLY LEVELS-$BIL 303.3 303.1 304.8 (306.1)

1976--MAY JUNE JULY AUG.

(

7.4 9.8 9.0 12.4)

462.1 467.9 472.3 (470.71

393.9 397.3 402.8 (406.3)

179.4 179.4 181.1 (183.6)

214.5 217.9 221.7 (222.7)

(

68.2 70.6 69.6 64.4)

7.6 8.4 8.8 8.8)

(

2.3 3.7 2.7 4.0)

X ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--41H QTR. 1976-151 QTR. 2ND OTR.

1.6 4.3 6.8

7.0 11.5 9.9

7.0 1.2 4.9

12.9 5.4 8.2

11.6 17.1 12.4

15.8 32.4 13.6

8.2 5.6 11.3

19.2 -46.8 -14.2

2.3 2.6 8.4

6.4 10.1 11.3

6.0 2.3 2.4

9.7 7.8 6.3

9.8 15.9 13.7

14.4 28.3 21.7

6.6 6.7 7.0

9.5 -29.3 -30.6

1.3 15.1 11.3 -4.1)

(

11.4 10.4 16.6 10.4)

(

18.3 0.0 11.4 16.6)

(

5.6 19.0 20.9 5.4)

-53.8 42.2 -17.0 ( -89.7)

(

3.6)

(

13.6)

(

14.0)

(

13.2)

( -52.7)

QUARTERLY-AV 1975-4TH OTR. 1976--IST QTR. 2ND QTR. MONTHLY 1976-MAY JUNE JULY AUG. JULY-AUG.

6.4 -0.8 6.7 5.1)

5.9)

(

9.2 5.3 12.5 8.1)

-4.6 16.3 3.2 -3.9)

10.4)

(

-0.3)

WEEKLY LEVELS-SBIL 1976-JULY

AUG.

NOTE: I/ P -

7 14 21 28 4 P

304.3 304.6 306.0 304.8

704.9 706.9 709.0 709.2

522.6 523.1 526.6 524.4

9.4 9.3 8.9 8.6

472.0 472.8 472.7 472.6

400.6 402.3 403.0 404.4

179.6 180.7 181.4 182.1

221.0 221.6 221.6 222.3

71.5 70.4 69.7 68.2

8.5 8.5 9.0 9.1

2.0 2.4 3.7 3.0

305.5

710.1

523.3

11.0

471.2

404.7

182.6

222.1

66.5

8.7

3.0

DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHSES ARE CURRENT PROECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC

AUGUST 13, 1976 TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Treasury Bills Net Change 2/

Period

Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/

Within 1-year

1 - 5

5 - 10

Over 10

Total

Within 1-year

1 - 5

5 - 10

Over 10

Total

Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/

Net RP's 6/

1972 1973 1974 1975

-490 7,232 1,280 -468

87 207 320 337

789 579 797 3,284

539 500 434 1,510

167 129 196 1,070

1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202

46 120 439 191

592 400 1,665 824

253 244 659 460

168 101 318 138

1,059 864 3,082 1,613

1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267

-1,358 -46 -154 1,272

1975-Qtr. II Qtr. III Qtr. IV

1,086 -757 1,294

218 13 74

1,135 712 385

454 201 234

273 171 315

2,079 1,096 1,006

64 58

514 141

-2 106 71

-63 14

-2 747 284

3,076 1,060 2,626

230 2,392 -1,403

1976--Qtr. I Qtr. II

-363 2,067

115 109

554 796

226 245

156 134

1,052 1,284

102 3

288 140

108 57

38 40

535 240

1,022 3,371

1,256 1,654

1976--Feb. Mar.

1,275 -42

40 38

366 78

63 63

59 24

528 203

76 -

149 -

61 --

11 --

297 --

2,029 23

-3,129 788

Apr. May June

513 -292 1,845

27 83

179 617

51 195

38 -96

294 -990

3 -

-140 -

-57 --

40 --

-240 --

758 -122 2,735

1,261 -958 1,351

July

-2,009

-2,040

-2,334

1976--June

2 9 16 23 30

-572 -302 949 909 861

-28 55

387 229

-112 83

--64 32

---591 399

--- -----

----

-587 -310 911 1,484 1,240

-5,170 -1,068 5,443 -147 3,157

July

7 14 21 28

-472 -783 -523 -231

--- --- --- ----

-----

----

-481 -791 -526 -238

-3,126 -1,003

4 11

135

--- --- --

--- -13 115

2,499 -8,081

Aug.

r 2,188

18 25 1/ Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC AUGUST 13, 1976 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars)

U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions

Underwriting Syndicate Positions Municipal Corporate Bonds Bonds (3) (4)

Period

Bills (1)

Coupon Issues (2)

1975--High Low

7,029 1,586

2,845 253

1976--igh Low

6,821 3,668

*2,060 175

249

1975-July Aug. Sept.

4,321 4,020 5,008

1,246 1,204 588

135

Oct. Nov. Dec.

5,766 4,751 4,822

1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June

1976--June

July

Aug.

Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit Excess** Reserves (5)

Seasonal (7)

8 New York (8)

38 Others (9)

-7,387 -1,757

-11,632

655 -106

-6,686 -2,367

-12,660 - 6,908

-5,546 -3,964 -3,551

- 9,896

122

188 195 191

1,480 2,073 1,075

123 173 103

161 251 265

-2,644 -3,812 -2,811

- 9,202

4,959 5,214 5,910

1,220 1,051 778

97 181 151

232 256 223

-3,581 -4,138 -4,726

- 9,746

5,750 4,239 4,996

605 591 582

133 199 196

155 210 214

-5,179 -4,402 -4,219

-10,783

*5,743

*904

211

235p

-4,728p

- 9,289p

2 9 16 23 30

5,266 5,052 5,777 4,445 4,495

175 636 522 561 793

199 223 201 160 204

-3,235 -5,370 -4,916 -3,701 -3,154

- 7,605

7 14 21 28

5,263 5,630 *5,744 *6,232

1,264 1,015 *619 *817

228 238 212 175

562 29 228 2p

-5,006 -5,958 -3,917

- 7,760

107

444

-3.525p -5,193p

4 11 18 25

*6,201 *6,103

*977 *2,060

389 48 34 181

lOOp

804 -42

453 -70 571 -180 465

p -35p

Total (6)

-3,805

- 7,207

- 9,966 - 9,015

-10,159 -10,418

-10,015 - 9,640

- 8,151 - 9,158

-10,581 - 9,561

- 9,559 - 6,908

-11.101 - 9,724 - 8,875 -

9,091p

-11,

33p

NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. *STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

**Monthly averages for excess

reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC

TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per cent)

AUGUST 13, 1976

Long-Term

Short-Term Treasur Federal Funds (1)

Period

Bills

90-119 Day Commercial Paper (4)

CD's New Isue-NYC

Aaa Utilit New Recently Issue Offered (7) (8)

Municipal Bond Buyer (9)

U.S. Govt. 20Yr. Constant Maturity) (10)

FNMA Auction Yield (11)

GNMA Guaranteed Securities (12)

90-Day (2)

1-Year (3)

6.68 5.02

7.31 5.46

8.43 5.38

7.88 5.25

7.75 5.38

9.80 8.89

9.71 9.06

7.67 6.27

8.63 7.63

9.95 8.78

9.10 7.93

1976--High Low

5.53 4.73

6.32 5.35

5.90 5.00

5.63 4.75

5.75 4.88

8.95 8.38

8.94 8.44

7.13 6.54

8.17 7;80

9.20 8.83

8.45 8.00

1975--July Aug. Sept.

6,13 6.44 6.42

6.64 7.16 7.20

6.32 6.59 6.79

6.05 6.31 6.44

6.25 6.63 6.81

9.41 9.46 9.68

9.42 9.49 9.57

7.06 7.17 7.44

8.17 8.50 8.57

9.14 9.41 9.78

8.50 8.75 8.97

5.96 5.48 5.44

6.48 6.07 6.16

6.35 5.78 5.88

6.08 5.69 5.65

6.45 6.03 5.83

9.45 9.20 9.36

9.43 9.26 9.21

7.39 7.43 7.31

8.35 8.28 8.23

9.80 9.80 9.31

8.87 8.50 8.56

4.87

5.44

5.15

5.53 5.82

5.13 5.25

4.91 4.84 5.05

5.03 5.06 5.20

8.70 8.63 8.62

8.79 8.63 8.61

7.07 6.94 6.92

8.01

4.88 5.00

8.03 7.97

9.10 9.06 9.05

8.37 8.29 8.30

Apr. May June

4.86 5.20

5.54 5.98

5.08 5.44

5.41

6.12

5.83

4.81 5.25 5.55

4.94 5.38 5.68

8.48 8.82 8.72

8.52 8.77 8.73

6.60 6.87 6.87

7.86 8.13 8.03

8.89 9.09 9.13

8.10 8.33 8.35

July

5.23

5.82

5.54

5.30

5.42

8.63

6.79

8.00

9.05

8.37

5.63 5.63 5.63 5.50 5.38

5.75 5.75 5.75 5.63 5.50

8.83 8.71 8.69 8.70 8.72

8.80 8.76 8.70 8.74 8.67

6.89 6.86 6.85 6.87 6.87

8.08 8.04 8.02 7.99 8.02

9.20

8.44 8.39 8.34 8.34 8.34

7.70 5.13

1975--High Low

Oct. Nov. Dec. 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar.

1976-June

July

Aug.

Daily-Aug.

2 9 16 23 30 7 14 21 28

60-Day (5)

I 90-Day (6)

5.38 5.21 5.20 5.19

6.03 5.75 5.79 5.78

5.75 5.60 5.50 5.40

5.50 5.25 5.25 5.20

5.63 5.38 5.38 5.30

8.58 8.53 8.66 8.72

8.57 8.55 8.68 8,69

6.78 6.78 6.77 6.73

7.98

5.20 5.25

5.30 5.35

8.60 8.50p

8.60 8.49 p

6.65 6.60

7.99 7 94 . p

4 11 18 25

5.36 5.25

5.15 5.18

5.74 5.67

5.38 5.38

5 12

5.33 5.24p

5.19 5.16

5.73 5.66

5.38 5.38

9.14 9.12

8.41

7.96

9.05

8.03 8.03

9.04

8.34 8.34 8.37

8.00

7.92(8/11)

NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 8 and 9 are 1-day quotes for Priday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 12 is a 1-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling.

APPENDIX TABLE 1-A

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

Period

Total

Adj.

borrod

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

BANK CREDIT MrEASURIES

ANK RESERVESI

aonser Credit proxy

Base

1976

AUG.

Total Loans

and Invest-

11.6 10.6 6.4

10.6 9.0 9.7

11.1 8.9 10.0

11.9 8.9 9.7

mnnts

(Per cent annual rates of groth) ANNUALLY: 13.8 9.2 4.4

6.0 4.7 4.1

8 7 8

6.7 7.1 -0.4

6.0 9.2 1.3

10.5 10.2 3.9

1ST HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975

-1.2 0.3

1.7 0.9

4.5 3.1

9.8 6.8

6.9 5.7

9.9 9.2

9.5 10.0

9.4 9.5

1ST HALF 1976

-1.2

3.1

10.8

6.3

9.2

8.6

8.9

3RD QTR. 1975 4TH QTR. 1975

-0.8 1.4

-2.8 4.5

-0.8 7.0

6.5

7.0

3.0 0.4

8.1 10.0

8.6 11.3

7.5 11.3

1ST QTR. 1976 2NO QTR. 1976

-6.2 3.9

-5.3 3.1

1.2 4.9

11.5 9.9

5.0 7.6

8.4 9.8

7.7 9.4

7.7 9.9

3RD QTR. 1975 4TH OTR. 1975

0.1 0.6

-1.9 2.7

1.4 6.0

10.1 6.4

5.7 6.7

10.1 9.4

10.7 9.9

9.5 9.6

1ST OTR. 1976 2ND QTR. 1976

-3.8 0.8

-3.2 0.5

2.3 2.4

10.1 11.3

5.7 7.1

8.6 9.6

8.7 9.0

8.7 9.3

-3.Z -3.1 3.9 -6.3 9.7 0.8

-5.8 0.0 -2.6 0.8 14.3 -1.6

-3.3 -4.3 5.2 5.9 14.4 0.7

9.5 5.7 4.2 5.3 11.5 4.0

5.1 -0.5 4.3 7.9 11.7 5.3

10.0 5.9 8.2 9.9 12.1 7.7

11.9 7.0 6.5 10.3 14.3 8.9

-10.2 -6.8 -1.7 0.7 4.0 7.0 1.7

-8.4 -6.9 -0.8 1.1 1.5 6.6 1.5

-0.7 3.5 0.9 3.0 -4.6 16.3 3.2

10.7 14.9 8.7 14.9 9.2 5.3 12.5

3.5 7.0 4.3 10.9 3.1 8.6 9.8

7.2 9.8 7.9 12.1 7.0 10.0 11.4

7.1 8.2 7.7 11.2 6.6 10.2 11.6

1973 1974 1975 SEMI-ANNUALLY:

QUARTERLY:

QUARTERLY-AV:

MONTHLY: 1975--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. NAY JUNE JULY P NOTES:

I~~ m

ApJUSTEO CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS RELATED INSTITUTIONSt AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. I/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY

SUBJECT TO RESERVE

I I

REQUIREMENTS. LOANS

10.6 6.0 5.7

10.1 14.3 9.1 7.1 8.0 7.8 11.4 7.2 10.8 12.0

SOLD TO BANK-

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES AUG.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

Period To 1

1976

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

BANK CREDIT MEASURES

BANK RESERVES y

13,

Total Loans and Invest. ments

Non borrowed

Monetary Base

Adj. Credit proxy

ANNUALLY: 32,390 34,693 34,539

31,092 33,966 34,409

96.051 104,892 110,930

449.4 405.3 514.4

637.7 695.2 725.5

270.5 283.1 294.8

571.4 612.4 664.3

919.5 981.6 1092.9

634.9 702.2 747.2

982.9 1071.4 1175.8

1093.7 1191.0 1310.3

1132.0 1232.7 1351.9

34,399 34,310 34.421

34,098 34,099 34,024

108,254 108,694 108,949

505.1 503.3 505.5

710.3 713.8 717.2

291.9 293.2 293.6

647.5 650.6 652.9

1051.6 1060.6 1068.1

729.6 729.3 731.9

1133.7 1139.3 1147.1

1260.1 1267.5 1274.4

1302.1 1308.6 1314.8

OCT. NOV. DEC.

34,239 34,515 34,539

34,048 34,455 34,409

109,279 110,287 110,930

508.0 514.1 514.4

721.0 726.9 725.5

293.4 295.6 294.8

655.8 662.1 664.3

1075.8 1086.5 1092.9

736.7 743.9 747.2

1156.6 1168.3 1175.8

1285.3 1300.6 1310.3

1325.9 1341.7 1351.9

1976--JAN. FEB. MAR.

34,245 34,052 34,003

34,167 33,971 33.949

111,171 111,538 112,192

514.1 515.6 516.0

727.6 731.2 735.4

295.1 296.5 29 .0

670.2 678.5 683.4

1103.7 1117.2 1127.3

749.4 753.8 756.5

1182.9 1192.6 1200.5

1318.0 1327.0 1335.5

1359.9 1369.0 1377.9

APR. MAY JUNE

34,024 34,136 34,335

33,980 34,022 34,209

113,333 113,994 114,653

517.3 515.3 522.3

738.7 742.0 743.3

301.7 303.3 303.1

691.9 697.2 700.3

1141.2 1151.5 1159.3

763.4 765.4 770.9

1212.6 1219.7 1229.9

1348.0 1355.4 1366.9

1391.0 1399.3 1411.9

JULY P

34,384

34,252

115,145

523.7

747.6

304.8

707.6

1172.1

777.2

1241.6

1380.1

1426.0

9 16 23 30

33,939 34,438 34,031 34,965

33,846 34,389 33,666 34,799

114,213 114,784 114,389 115,291

520.6 524.2 522.9 522.7

304.0 303.7 301.9 302.2

700.6 701.3 699.5 701.6

770.3 771.7 770.6 773.6

JULY

7 14 21 28P

34,760 34,072 34,324 34,103

34,634 33,896 34,265 33,944

114,939 115,001 115,189 115,085

522.6 523.1 526.6 524.4

304.3 304.6 306.0 304.8

704.9 706.9 709.0 709.2

776.4 777.4 778.7 777.4

AUG.

35,035

34,879

116,004

523.3

305.5

710.1

776.6

1973 197+. 1975

MONTHLY: 1975--JULY AUG. SEPT.

WEEKLY:

1976--JUNE

NOTES;

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT 10 RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3. MS, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY

AUG.

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

13, 1976

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits Period

urrency 1

Demand Deposits 2

Other Than CD's

Total 3

Total

Savings

Ohr

CD's

Other

Mutual Savings Bank & S&L

Credit Union Shares-11

Short Term Savings USGov't Commercial Bondst/ Securities Paper1/

8.5 5.6 15.8

13.8 12.1 20.2

4.9 4.8 6.2

31.3 11.9 19.5

39.3 9.1 -0.5

(Per cent annual rates of growth)

ANNUALLY:

45.6 41.4 -7.7

8.1 10.2 8.7

5.3 3.0 2.6

16.2 15.0 7.9

11.4 9.4 12.2

2.8 7.0 17.8

18.7 11.2 8.2

1975 1975

9.4 7.6

4.4 0.9

7.8 7.8

13.4 10.4

18.2 16.0

10.0 6.1

-12.7 -2.9

15.2 15.2

20.9 17.6

5.7 6.5

6.7 31.3

5.7 -6.5

1ST HALF 1976

10.6

4.1

6.9

15.0

23.6

8.5

-29.7

14.0

16.8

6.3

1.2

15.9

3RD QTR. 1975 4TH OTR. 1975

5.6 9.4

2.9 -1.1

2.6 12.9

8.9 11.6

15.6 15.8

3.9 8.2

-23.8 19.2

17.4 12.5

17.0 17.6

6.8 6.0

19.2 41.3

-24.2 11.9

1ST QTR. 1976 2ND QTR. 1976

10.9 10.0

2.4 5.8

5.4 8.2

17.1 12.4

32.4 13.6

5.6 11.3

-46.8 -14.2

14.3 13.2

16.8 16.1

6.5 5.9

-3.6 6.0

7.7 23.6

1975 1975

8.5 8.4

6.6 0.2

4.7 9.7

12.7 9.8

18.9 14.4

8.0 6.6

-27.5 9.5

18.2 14.0

18.6 16.5

6.8 6.1

26.4 23.5

-23.7 -1.0

1ST QTR. 1976 2ND OTR. 1976

9.8 11.7

0.4 7.2

7.8 6.3

15.9 13.7

28.3 21.7

6.7 7.0

-29.3 -30.6

13.4 13.8

17.1 16.4

6.6 5.9

12.3 0.6

9.7 17.1

1975--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

5.1 10.1 1.7 10.0 13.2 4.9

3.3 3.8 1.6 -4.3 7.1 -5.9

5.8 -3.8 5.8 13.7 13.5 11.0

14.0 6.4 6.0 10.7 13.6 10.1

17.8 15.1 13.4 11.7 14.6 20.5

11.2 0.0 0.6 10.0 12.8 1.7

-28.5 -48.2 4.6 27.3 13.4 16.1

18.9 17.7 14.9 13.5 12.4 11.3

15.7 19.4 15.2 18.8 14.8 18.3

9.2 5.5 5.5 7.3 5.4 5.4

53.6 27.6 -23.2 21.6 63.8 34.9

-25.1 -28.5 -20.4 3.0 17.8 14.6

1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY P

8.1 14.6 9.6 15.9 11.0 3.1 9.3

-1.1 3.8 4.3 14.6 5.3 -2.7 5.9

5.3 7.7 3.1 8.1 1.3 15.1 11.3

18.2 21.4 11.0 14.9 11.4 10.4 16.6

26.9 44.6 23.3 22.1 18.3 0.0 11.4

12.1 4.0 0.6 9.1 5.6 19.0 20.9

-53.6 -57.6 -35.0 -29.5 -53.8 42.2 -17.0

13.4 14.7 14.2 14.1 13.3 11.7 13.9

18.0 10.7 21.1 13.8 13.7 20.3 23.3

7.1 7.1 5.3 5.3 7.0 5.2 6.9

3.6 -19.6 5.4 0.0 0.0 18.0 19.5

8.7 5.7 8.6 17.0 25.1 27.3 26.7

1973 1974 1975 SEMI-ANNUALLY: IST HALF 2ND HALF

QUARTERLY:

QUARTERLY-AV: 3RD QTR. 4TH OTR.

MONTHLY:

1/ P -

GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY.

MONTHLY AVERAGE

LEVELS DERIVED

BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT

MONTH AND END OF

AUG. 13, 1976

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Sain Currency Demand Deposits

Period

Total

vTime gs Credit Union Savings Bank & S&L Shares Bonds j Y Shares

ndDpo

Other Than CD's STotal ISavings Other 6 5 4

Term U.S. Gov't Sec /

56.3 67.3

38.3 41.8 41.6

6.6 8.4 8.4

7.3 5.6 7.6

65.6 65.9 66.2

60.8 62.2 61.0

42.1 41.1 40.4

6.8 7.0 7.0

4.3 3.6 6.9

32.4 32.8 33.3

66.6 66.9 67.2

62.1 65.4 67.3

40.5 41.1 41.6

7.9 8.2 8.4

8.6 9.6 7.6

399.9 404.6 409.6

33.8 34.1 34.7

67.6 68.0 68.3

67.5 66.4 66.7

41.9 42.1 42.4

7.9 8.0 8.2

8.0 10.9 10.9

71.4 68.2 70.6

414.4 419.0 423.1

35.1 35.5 36.1

68.6 69.0 69.3

66.7 66.7 67.7

43.0 43.9 44.9

7.5 7.6 8.4

7.2 7.4 9.8

221.7

69.6

428.0

36.8

69.7

68.8

45.9

8.8

9.0

323.5 341.6 395.5

24.7 27.7 33.3

60.4 63.3 67.2

50.3

82.1 78.8 79.1

373.3 378.8 383.5

31.0 31.5 31.9

206.5 208.7 209.0

80.9 81.8 82.9

387.8 391.8 395.5

164.1 170.2 173.5

211.1 211.8 211.9

79.2 75.4 73.2

390.2 393.9 397.3

176.7 179.4 179.4

215.5 214.5 217.9

472.3

402.8

181.1

Total NonCornGov't mercial Deposit Paper Funds Dempos Dep

61.5 67.8 73.7

209.0 215.3 221.0

364.4 419.1 452.4

300.9 329.3 369.6

127.3 136.2 160.5

173.6 193.1 209.0

63.5 89.8 82.9

71.3 71.9 72.0

220.6 221.3 221.6

437.6 436.2 438.3

355.5 357.4 359.2

150.8 152.7 154.4

204.7 204.7 204.8

OCT. NOV. DEC.

72.6 73.4 73.7

220.8 222.1 221.0

443.3 448.3 452.4

362.4 366.5 369.6

155.9 157.8 160.5

1976--JAN. FEB. MAR.

74.2 75.1 75.7

220.8 221.5 222.3

454.4 457.3 458.5

375.2 381.9 385.4

APR. MAY JUNE

76.7 77.4 77.6

225.0 226.0 225.5

461.6 462.1 467.9

JULY P

78.2

226.6

ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975

MONTHLY: 1975--JULY AUG. SEPT.

WEEKLY: 1976--JUNE

9 16 23 30

77.8 77.7 77.7 77.6

226.2 226.0 224.2 224.6

466.3 468.0 468.7 471.5

396.6 397.6 397.7 399.5

179.7 179.2 179.2 179.2

216.9 218.4 218.4 220.3

69. 70.4 71.1 72.0

7.7 8.4 9.1 8.8

8.2 9.3 10.3 10.4

JULY

7 14 21 28

77.8 78.3 78.2 78.3

226.6 226.3 227.8 226.5

472.0 472.8 472.7 472.6

400.6 402.3 403.0 404.4

179.6 180.7 181.4 182.1

221.0 221.6 221.6 222.3

71.5 70.4 69.7 68.2

8.5 8.5 9.0 9.1

9.4 9.3 8.9 8.6

AUG.

78.4

227.1

471.2

404.7

182.6

222.1

66.5

8.7

11.0

1/ 2/ P -

ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY

PREVIOUS MONTH

REPORTED

DATA.

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1976, August 16). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760817

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19760817,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1976},
  month = {Aug},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760817},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}