bluebooks · October 18, 1976

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

October 15, 1976

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC

October 15, 1976

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Recent developments (1)

M1 remained essentially unchanged in September, but appears

to be increasing at a relatively rapid rate in October.

For the two months

combined its growth is now projected at about a 3.5 per cent annual rate,

a shade below the low end of the Committee's 4 to 8 per cent operating range.

However, expansion in bank time and savings deposits other than

money market CD's has been substantially stronger than anticipated during

both September and early October, so that growth in M 2 appears to be running above the mid-point of its range.

Deposit inflows at nonbank thrift

institutions have continued at an unusually high rate. Growth in Monetary Aggregatesl/ over September-October Period(SAAR in per cent) Ranges M1

4 to 8

8 to 12

Memo:

Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

Latest Estimates 3.5 11.2 Avg. for statement

week ending Sept. 22 5.21 29 5.32 Oct. 6 5.17 13 5.02

1/ These figures do not incorporate the regular quarterly benchmark revision of monetary aggregates that will be published on Thursday, October 21. The revisions (based on the March call report) are generally quite small, however. The level of M1 for each month of this year was revised up no more than $100 million, and quarterly growth rates for M1 for the first three quarters of the year hardly changed. The level of M 2 , however, was revised downward more substantially and its quarterly growth rates were lowered by about 1/2 percentage point. All tables on subsequent pages of this report (with the exception of tables 1 and 2 following the charts) are based on the new series. The new and old series are compared in Appendix Table IV.

(2)

Despite expansion of M1 and M 2 in the September-October

period, nonborrowed reserves appear to be showing little net change over 2/ that time.2/

This divergent behavior in part reflects the effect of lagged

reserve requirements.

In addition, total demand deposits at banks (includ-

ing Government and interbank) are declining somewhat on balance, releasing reserves to support expansion in time and savings deposits. (3)

In the week immediately following the September Committee

meeting, incoming data suggested that growth in M1 and M 2 would be well within the Committee's two-month ranges.

Accordingly, the Desk continued

to aim at a Federal funds rate of 5-1/4 per cent.

In the following two

statement weeks, however, new data indicated a weakening in demand deposit flows.

As a result, the projected 2-month growth rate for M

was lowered

to below Committee's range but M2 remained around the mid-point.

The Desk

responded by gradually lowering its Federal funds rate objective to the 5 per cent currently prevailing. (4)

Short-term interest rates have dropped 10 to 35 basis points

since the September Committee meeting, while yields on Treasury issues in the 2 to 4 year maturity range have dropped 50 basis points.

This flatten-

ing of the yield curve in part may reflect market expectations of less upward interest rate pressure for some time ahead.

In the bond area,

yields have declined 5 to 25 basis points over the past four weeks.

The

reduced average level of market rates resulted from the easing in money

Appendix A contains a discussion of the actual behavior of nonborrowed reserves in the weeks between the September and October meetings relative to the behavior that was expected to be consistent with the Committee's short-run ranges for monetary growth.

-3market conditions brought about by Desk operations, from weak M1 data published for late September, and from widely publicized downward revisions in market forecasts of economic growth over the next several quarters.

The unfavorable economic news has apparently also dampened

enthusiasm in the stock market, resulting in a substantial decline in stock prices. (5)

The table on the following page shows (in terms of percent-

age annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods.

Past Calendar

Twelve

Year

Months

Six

Past Three

Past

Months

Month

Sept.'76

1975

over Sept.'75

over Mar.'76

over June '76

over Aug. '76

Nonborrowed reserves

1.3

0.8

2.1

1.1

-4.3

Total reserves

-.4

-0.2

2.1

0.3

-5.6

Monetary Base

5.8

6.7

7.1

5.4

4.5

4.1

4.3

5.5

4.1

-0.4

8.5

9.7

9.9

10.3

9.5

11.3

11.9

12.2

13.1

M4 (M2 plus CD's)

6.4

6.1

5.0

M 5 (M3 plus CD's)

9.7

9.6

9.7

9.6

Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.)

3.9

3.5

2.8

0.8

1.8

Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/

4.4

5.5

5.7

7.0

5.9

-.6

-1.4

-1.8

-2.7

-2.0

-.2

-.4

-1.4

Concepts of Money (Revised Series) M1 (currency plus demand

deposits) 1/ M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks ther than large CD's) M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions)

13.2 5.7 10.6

Bank Credit

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions)

Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (6)

Current longer-run growth ranges and three alternatives for

Committee consideration are shown below.

In keeping with usual procedures,

the proposed longer-run ranges pertain to the one-year period from QIII '76 to QIII '77.

(The current ranges relate to the QII '76-QII '77 period.)

Current

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

4½-7

5½-8

4½-7

3½-6

7½-9½

10-12

8½-10½

7½-9½

9-11

11½-13½

10-12

8½-10½

5-8

6½-9½

5½-8½

5-8

Bank credit

proxy

(7) It appears that the longer-run relationship between M1 and the other monetary aggregates may be changing from earlier expectations. From the second to the third quarter of 1976 M1 grew at a 4 per cent annual rate--somewhat below the lower limit of the FOMC's longer-run range.

How-

ever, over that period M2 expanded at about a 9-1/4 per cent annual rate, close to the upper limit of its longer-run range, and M3 rose at a rate slightly above the upper end of its range.

The staff had expected rela-

tively rapid growth in M 2 and M3 in the third quarter.

Growth in M1 over

the third quarter was slower than anticipated, however, and interest rates somewhat lower. (8) The staff anticipates continued moderation in M relative to M2 and M3.

growth

In some part, this reflects an expectation that

shifts from demand to savings deposits will be a little larger than the staff had earlier anticipated.

In addition, in view of the less expansive economy

now projected, market interest rates are expected to be under less upward

-6pressure over the next few quarters than previously thought.

Therefore,

investors are likely to have a somewhat greater preference than earlier assumed for time and savings deposits relative to market instruments. (9)

Under the circumstances, the three lettered alternatives

incorporate a different relationship between M1 and the broader aggregates place.

han is contained in the set of longer-run ranges currently in Under alternative C, the growth ranges for the broader monetary

aggregates are about the same as those that now prevail, but the range for M1 is lower.

Alternative B continues the current growth range for

M1, but involves somewhat higher ranges for M2 and M3 .

Alternative A--

which contemplates little change in interest rates over the next year-contains higher ranges for all of the monetary aggregates.1/ (10)

Shorter-run specifications for the monetary aggregates

and the Federal funds rate thought to be consistent with the proposed longer-run alternatives are summarized below.

More detailed data--includ-

ing one-year growth rates for the QII '76-QII '77 period as well as for the QIII '76-QIII '77 period--are shown in the tables on the following two pages.

Levels of the monetary aggregates for QII '77 implied by growth from QII '76 at the mid-point of the ranges currently in place relate to the proposed alternatives in the following way. The implied QII '77

level for M1 is midway between alternatives A and B. For M2 and M3, the implied levels for QII '77 are best approximated by alternative C, after taking account of the downward revision in levels associated with the new benchmark revision.

-6aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1976

September October November

306.3 308.3 309.9

306.3 308.3 309.7

306.3 308.3 309.5

716.4 723.3 730.4

716.4 723.3 729.4

716.4 723.3 728.6

1195.2 1208.9 1222.8

1195.2 1208.9 1221.2

1195.2 1208.9 1219.6

1976

QII QIII QIV

302.8 305.9 309.9

302.8 305.9 309.8

302.8 305.9 309.6

695.0 710.9 730.4

695.0 710.9 729.4

695.0 710.9 728.6

1149.1 1182.4 1222.8

1149.1 1182.4 1221.1

1149.1 1182.4 1219.2

1977

QI QII QIII

315.5 321.0 326.5

314.4 319.1 323.5

313.2 316.8 320.3

751.2 770.3 788.3

747.6 764.2 779.7

744.2 758.0 771.3

1262.0 1297.8 1331.7

1255.9 1286.3 1313.9

1247.2 1271.3 1294.6

7.8 6.2

7.8 5.4

7.8 4.7

11.6 11.8

11.6 10.1

11.6 8.8

13.8 13.8

13.8 12.2

13.8 10.6

11.6 12.4

Growth Rates Monthly: 1976

October November

Quarterly Average: 1976

QIII QIV

4.1 5.2

4.1 5.1

4.1 4.8

9.2 11.0

9.2 10.4

9.2 10.0

11.6 13.7

11.6 13.1

1977

QI QII QIII

7.2 7.0 6.9

5.9 6.0 5.5

4.7 4.6 4.4

11.4 10.2 9.3

10.0 8.9 8.1

8.6 7.4 7.0

12.8 11.3 10.4

11.4 9.7 8.6

9.2 7.7 7.3

Semi-annual QII '76-QIV '76 QIV '76-QII '77

4.7 7.2

4.6 6.0

4.5 4.7

10.2 10.9

9.9 9.5

9.7 8.1

12.8 12.3

12.5 10.7

12.2 8.5

Long-run QII '76-QII '77 QII '76-QIII '77 QIII '76-QIII '77

6.0 6.3 6.7

5.4 5.5 5.8

4.6 4.6 4.7

10.8 10.7 10.9

10.0 9.7 9.7

9.1 8.8 8.5

12.9 12.7 12.6

11.9 11.5 11.1

10.6 10.1 9.5

-6bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy

M4 Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1976

September October November

778.8 785.4 792.3

778.8 785.4 791.2

778.8 785.4 790.5

1257.6 1271.0 1284.7

1257.6 1271.0 1283.0

1257.6 1271.0 1281.6

523.3 526.3 531.0

523.3 526.3 530.2

523.3 526.3 529.8

1976

QII QIII QIV

765.1 776.3 792.3

765.1 776.3 791.3

765.1 776.3 790.6

1219.2 1247.8 1284.7

1219.2 1247.8 1283.0

1219.2 1247.8 1281.3

518.3 523.1 530.2

518.3 523.1 529.5

518.3 523.1 529.1

1977

QI QII QIII

813.2 832.6 851.7

809.6 827.1 844.3

806.8 822.4 838.1

1324.0 1360.1 1395.1

1317.9 1349.2 1378.5

1309.8 1335.7 1361.3

542.2 552.4 565.4

539.8 548.9 560.8

538.2 546.2 557.3

10.2 10.5

10.2 8.9

12.8 12.9

12.8 11.3

12.8 10.0

6.9 10.7

6.9 8.9

6.9 8.0

QIII

5.9

9.4

3.7

QIV

8.2

7.7

7.4

11.8

11.3

10.7

5.4

4.9

4.6

10.6

9.3

8.2

12.2

10.9

8.9

9.1

7.8

6.9

QII

9.5

8.6

7.7

10.9

9.5

7.9

7.5

6.7

5.9

QIII

9.2

8.3

7.6

10.3

8.7

7.7

9.4

8.7

8.1

7.1 10.2

6.8 9.0

6.7 8.0

10.7 11.7

10.5 10.3

10.2 8.5

4.6 8.4

4.3 7.3

4.2 6.5

8.8 9.1 9.7

8.1 8.3 8.8

7.5 7.6 8.0

11.6 11.5 11.8

10.7 10.5 10.5

9.6 9.3 9.1

6.6 7.3 8.1

5.9 6.6 7.2

5.4 6.0 6.5

Growth Rates Monthly: 1976

October November

10.2 7.8

Quarterly Averages: 1976

1977

Semi-annual QII '76-QIV '76 QIV '76-QII '77 Long-run QII '76-QII '77 QII '76-QIII '77 QIII '76-QIII '77

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Ranges for Oct.-Nov.

5-9

4½-8½

4-8

10-14

9-13

8-12

4-5

4½-5½

5-6

Federal funds rate (Inter-meeting period) (11)

Alternative B, which has a Federal funds rate range centered

on 5 per cent, assumes that money market conditions remain unchanged between now and the next Committee meeting.

Growth in M1 under this alternative is

expected to accelerate into a 4-1/2 to 8-1/2 per cent annual rate range over the October-November period--in large part because of the substantial increase that has already occurred in early October.

Moreover, nominal GNP

is projected to expand at about an 11-1/2 per cent annual rate in the fourth quarter, up from an 8-1/2 per cent rate in the third, and this should strengthen transactions demands for money.

Growth in M 2 is expected to remain quite

large over the 2-month period, reflecting not only the projected rebound in M1 growth but also the expectation that net inflows into time and savings deposits (other than money market CD's) will continue large as market interest rates over the next few weeks remain low relative to offering rates on these deposits. (12)

The staff would still expect interest rates to rise over

the longer run under alternative B, given the projected pace of economic activity.

However, we would now anticipate a Federal funds rate no higher

than about 6 per cent by mid-'77 and perhaps rising to around 6-1/2 per cent later that year, as may be seen from Appendix Table II.

This represents

both more delayed, and less, interest rate pressure than anticipated earlier.

M2 and M3 would, as a result, probably show somewhat more

strength over the longer run relative to M1 than previously expected-although growth rates in the broader monetary aggregates would, of course, be expected to slacken over the next few quarters. Over the next few weeks, interest rates would be likely

(13)

to show little net change under alternative B.

About $4 billion of pub-

licly-held debt maturing on November 15 will need to be rolled over, and the Treasury may also take the opportunity to raise about $2-1/2 billion of new cash.

Private credit demands in short-term markets, including

demands at banks, are likely to remain quite moderate over the next few weeks.

With banks expected to receive large inflows of funds from

deposits, they probably will permit CD's to run off somewhat further over the next few weeks and may also be substantial investors in intermediateand short-term issues offered in the Treasury refunding.

Thus, interest

rates in short- and intermediate-term market sectors are not likely to be under any pressure from market forces over the period immediately ahead. However, some upward pressure on private long-term rates may be generated if the Treasury offers a substantial amount of the new issues in the 10year and longer maturity area, given the existing relatively narrow spread between Treasury and corporate issues and the sizable forward calendar of corporate and State and local government bonds. (14)

Alternative C involves a rise in the funds rate over the

next few weeks to the 5-1/2 per cent mid-point of a 5-6 per cent range.

-9Under those conditions, market interest rates would, of course, rise between now and the next Committee meeting.

The increase might be fairly

sharp since a sizable Treasury financing will be in process and since current dealer positions in Treasury securities remain substantial, although not quite as large as a month ago.

Net inflows of funds to banks and

thrift institutions through interest-bearing deposits, particularly savings deposits, would be constrained somewhat by such a move in the funds rate-which would probably be accompanied by a rise in the 3-month bill rate back to near 5-1/2 per cent.

However, the net inflows of interest-bearing

deposits would still remain ample, and banks and thrift institutions would not be likely to tighten non-price lending terms, even though the prime loan rate, and perhaps mortgage rates, might edge upwards. (15)

Further increases in interest rates can be expected over

the longer-run under alternative C, assuming M1 growth over the QIII '76 QIII '77 period is constrained to around 4-3/4 per cent.

As shown in the

appendix table, a funds rate as high as 7-3/4 per cent might develop by the fall of 1977. (16)

Alternative A encompasses an easing of the money market

between now and the next Committee meeting.

Such an approach seems most

consistent with an effort to raise longer-run growth rates from those currently in place.

The contemplated 1/2 point reduction in the Federal funds

rate in the near-term would lead to a significant decline in market rates-and also probably in the prime loan and primary mortgage rates--over the next few weeks.

There would be some further increase in net inflows of

-10interest-bearing deposits at banks and thrift institutions.

As such

inflows continued, and as market rates declined, it is likely that earnings experience would place these institutions under some pressure to reduce interest rates offered on deposits.

However, no substantial

reductions would be likely over the next few weeks.

-11Proposed directive (17)

Presented below are four alternative formulations for the

operational paragraph of the directive.

The first three are couched in

terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead and are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section.

The fourth alternative is proposed

in the event that the Committee wishes to formulate its instructions in terms of money market conditions and to maintain the conditions now prevailing. Alternative "Monetary Aggregates" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: moderate]SUBSTANTIAL growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead.

-12Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: moderate]MODEST growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. "Money Market" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: achieve]MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions

[DEL: consistent with moderate growth in-monetary aggregates]over

the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

APPENDIX A Comparison of Actual and Targeted Reserves

The table below compares the actual average level of reserves for the four-week period ending October 20 with the "targeted" level that had been thought consistent with the mid-points of the short-run ranges for the monetary aggregates adopted at the last FOMC meeting.

(2+3)

(4-5)

Actual1/

Targeted

Differences

Nonborrowed reserves

34,474

34,304

170

Required reserves

34,275

34,167

108

199

137

268

215

-9

34,543

34,382

161

Currency

82,286

82,422

-136

Monetary base

116,829

116,804

Free reserves Excess reserves Member bank borrowing

(1+5)

(6+7)

Total reserves

As can be seen from the table, actual nonborrowed reserves were $170 million higher than the "targeted" level.

Banks held more free

reserves than the staff expected, reflecting a slightly lower level of borrowing and greater demand for excess reserves by banks than anticipated. Meanwhile, actual required reserves were about $100 million above expectations as both the level of deposits, on a lagged basis, subject to reserves and the average reserve ratio against deposits turned out to be somewhat higher than expected.

Includes week of October 20, which is partly estimated.

A-2 Total reserves were also higher than expected.

But the monetary

base was only slightly above the targeted level, as currency growth was less than anticipated.

Appendix Table I Reserve Measures Consistent With Short-run Alternatives (seasonally adjusted) Change from average of previous 4-week period ($ million)

Average of 4 weeks Oct. 27 to Nov. 17 ($ million) Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B -111

34,362

34,326

34,26!5

-75

9(0

-34

263

241

22(0

34,397

34,376

34,355

Monetary base1/

117,413

117,399

117,378

605

591

Nonborrowed monetary base

117,378

117,349

117,288

639

610

Nonborrowed reserves Member bank borrowing Excess reserves

-19

Alt. C -172

2-month Annual Percentage Growth Rate for Oct.-Nov.

Alt.

Alt. C

4.5

4.0

2.8

4.1

3.8

3.5

570

8.9

8.7

549

9.0

8.9

8.5

Other reserve aggregates: Total reserves

-109

-130

-152

-_/

Total reserves plus currency held outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and member banks.

Appendix Table II

Projected Federal Funds Rates Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

5-1/8

1976

QIV

1977

QII QIII

5 6

5 5k

7k 7%

Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) (Revised Series) M3

1973

3.6

7.4

7.3

10.1

6.4

9.2

8.4

10.3

9.9

8.2

9.8

8.5

6.3

7.9

6.1

7.8

9.0

9.9

8.4

III

1.8

5.5

7.8

5.1

10.5

QIV '72-QIV '73

6.0

6.2

8.8

9.0

5.3

6.0

9.0

9.6

8.4

8.9

5.3

5.6

6.9

7.4

5.7

6.5

III

3.0

4.2

5.5

6.4

5.2

5.6

4.7

4.0

6.6

6.4

7.2

6.5

QIV '73-QIV '74

4.7

5.0

7.2

7.7

6.8

7.1

1975

1.4

0.6

6.9

5.6

9.0

7.5

9.7

7.4

12.5

10.2

14.5

12.6

III

3.6

7.1

6.5

10.1

10.7

13.3

1.6

2.3

7.0

6.4

9.3

QIV '74-QIV '75

4.1

4.4

8.5

8.3

11.3

11.1

1976

4.5

2.7

11.0

9.7

12.3

11.2

6.8

8.4

9.3

10.8

10.9

12.1

III

4.1

10.3

9.2

13.1

11.6

1974

9.4

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

APPENDIX TABLE IV Comparison of Old and Revised Money Stock Growth Rates

Old 1976--January

Revised

Old

Revised

Old

Revised

1.2

10.7

9.8

11.9

11.3

February

5.7

6.1

14.9

14.5

14.7

14.6

March

6.1

8.7

8.5

11.0

10.6

April

14.9

14.4

14.6

14.4

6.4

6.8

9.2

8.5

10.8

10.5

June

-0.8

-1.2

5.3

4.8

8.0

July

6.7

12.5

11.9

13.3

13.0

August

5.9

9.8

9.0

13.2

12.7

-0.4

10.1

9.6

13.5

13.2

1976--I

4.3

4.5

11.5

11.0

12.6

12.3

6.8

9.9

9.3

11.3

10.9

III

4.1

10.9

10.3

13.5

13.1

2.6

2.7

10.1

9.7

11.4

11.2

8.4

11.3

10.8

12.4

12.1

III

4.1

9.8

9.2

12.0

11.6

May

September

7.6

.1/ Quarterly:-

Quarterly average: 1976--1

End-month-of-quarter to end-month-of-quarter

CHART 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1

10/15/76

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 320

l i

I~i

BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M 2

720

710

700

1975

S 1976

10/15/76

CHART 2

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-540

J -520

-500

RESERVES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

- 35

TOTAL

NONBORROWED -

II 1975

1976

Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with ctarges in reserve requirement ratios.

CHART 3

10/15/76

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET COiNDITIONS

PERCENT -

F.R. DISCOUNT RATE

INTEREST RATES Short-term

PERCENT 10

WEEKLY AVERAGES

- 7

INTEREST RATES I WEEKLY

9 FHA MORTGAGES FNMA MONDAY AUCTION

EURO-DOLLARS 3-MONTH

PRIME COMMERCIAL

Aaa UTILIT)

PAPER

FEDERAL FUNDSJ RATE'

NEW ISSUE

MONTH7 I N4-6 . .

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS S2

1975

1976

1975

1976

1975

1976

Table 1

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

CLASS

MONETARY AGGREGATES

OCT.

15,

II-FOMC

1976

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Narrow Broad (M2) (Ml)

Period

MONTHLY

Adjusted Credit Proxy

Total U.S. Govt. Deposits

Tota

472.4 471.5 475.6 (480.7)

402.8 407.1 413.2 (418.5)

181.1 184.4 187.9 (191.9)

221.7 222.8 225.4 (226.7)

304.8 306.3 306.2 (308.1)

707.6 713.4 719.4 (726.7)

523.6 522.5 523.3 (526.3)

Time and Savings Deposits Other Than C'S Oter Sav Total

Nondeposit Member Sources of U.SGovt. Deposits Funds 9

8.8

2.7 3.9 3.8 3.3)

LEVELS-$BIL

1976-JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT.

(

9.0 13.8 13.0 13.3)

(

69.6 64.4 62.4 62.2)

(

6.9 8.2 8.5)

I ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 4.3 6.8 4.1

11.5 9.9 10.9

1.2 4.9 0.8

5.4 8.2 6.6

17.1 12.4 16.0

32.4 13.6 19.0

5.6 11.3 13.8

-47.3 -13.7 -46.5

2.6 8.4 4.1

10.1 11.3 9.8

2.3 2.4 3.7

7.8 6.3 8.0

15.9 13.7 14.1

28.3 21.7 13.4

6.7 7.0 14.9

-29.3 -30.6 -26.2

(

6.7 5.9 -0.4 7.4)

(

12.5 9.8 10.1 12.2)

(

3.0 -2.5 1.8 6.9)

(

11.5 -2.3 10.4 12.9)

(

16.6 12.8 18.0 15.4)

(

11.4 21.9 22.8 25.5)

(

20.9 6.0 14.0 6.9)

-17.0 -89.7 -37.3 ( -3.8)

(

3.5)

(

11.2)

(

4.4)

11.7)

(

16.8)

(

24.4)

(

10.5)

( -20.5)

1976-1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. QUARTERLY-AV 1976-1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. MONTHLY 1976-JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. SEPT.-OCT. WEEKLY LEVELS-SBIL 1976-SEPT.

OCT.

NOTE: 1/ P -

1 8 15 22 29 6 P

305.9 304.3 308.9 305.8 304.8

715.6 715.6 721.7 719.9 719.7

522.6 521.5 524.1 524.6 522.6

15.9 16.0 10.0 12.7 12.5

472.5 473.7 474.8 476.3 477.8

409.7 411.3 412.8 414.1 415.0

185.9 186.8 187.5 188.2 189.1

223.8 224.5 225.2 225.9 225.9

62.8 62.4 62.0 62.2 62.9

8.6 7.9 7.7 8.7 8.4

3.6 5.7 3.6 4.0 2.9

308.8

725.7

528.6

13.1

479.6

416.9

190.8

226.1

62.7

8.4

3.2

DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 2

BANK RESERVES OCT.

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period

Total Reserves

Monetary Base r

Total Required

1976

RESERVES

_REQUIRED

Nonborrowed Reserves

15,

Private Demand

Total Time Deposits

n-...

. i_

Gov't. and Interbank

MONTHLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS

1976--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT.,

PERCENT

34,254 34,424 34,302 (34,394)

34,387 34,524 34,364 (34,452)

115,150 115,769 116,202 (116,957)

34,152 34,317 34,160 134,207)

19,952 20,166 20,153 (20,060)

12,003 11,797 11,654 (11,687)

2,198 2,355 2,353 ( 2,460)

ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR.

-6.2 3.9 0.3

-5.3 3.1 1.1

4.6 8.8 5.4

-5.7

4.0 0.5

-2.0 6.0 4.0

-11.0 -1,0

-3.8 0.8 3.0

-3.2 0.5 3.0

5.3 8.5 6.0

-3.6 1.2 2.8

-1.0 4.2 3.6

-6.5

1-1 5.8 -5.5 .7) (

-0.1 12.9 -0.8 -5.5)

(

16.3 -20.6 -14.5 3.4)

-1.9)

-3.2)

-5.6)

-6.4

QUARTERLY-AV 1976--IST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR.

-4.4 -0.8

MONTHLY

4.0 -5.6 ( 3.11

(

1.6 6.0 -4.3 3.21

-1.3)

-0.5)

1.8

1976--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. SEPT.-OCT.

WEEKLY LEVELS-sMILLIONS 1976-SEPT.

1 15 22 29

OCT.

34,505 34,278 34,467 34,045 349608

34,412 34,233 34,406 34,001 34,520

115,817 115,785 116,288 115,987 116,703

34,215 34,005 34*208 34,003 34,406

20,248 20,115 20,239 19,788 20t475

11,686 11.659 11,652 11,645 11,652

2,281 2,231 2,317 2,571 2,279

34,644 34.035

34,542 33,998

116,913 116,191

34,230 33,829

20,021 19,847

11,668 11,649

2,541 2,334

NOTEs

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 15, 1976

TABLE 3 1/ NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES($ millions, not seasonally adjusted)

Treasury Bills Net Change 2/

Period

Within 1-year

-490 7,232 1,280 -468 1975--Qtr. III Qtr. IV

-757 1,294

1976--Qtr. I Qtr. II Qtr. III

-363 2,067 45

1976--Apr. May June

513 -292 1,845

Net RP's 6/f

1,059 864 3,082 1,613

1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267

-1,358 -46 -154 1,272

747 284

1,060 2,626

2,392 -1,403

1,022 3,371 1,398

1,256 1,654 392

990

758 -122 2,735

1,261 -958 1,351

480 1,077

-2,040 1,484 1,954

-2,334 2,093 633

Sept.

Oct.

4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 13 20 27

To ....

1 - 5

5 -

789 579 797 3,284

539 500 434 1,510

167 129 196 1,070

1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202

712 385

201 234

171 315

1,096 1,006

Within 1-year r--

64 58

514 141

106 71

63 14

1,052 1,284 1,557 294

-2,009 1,100 954

July Aug. Sept. 1976--Aug.

13 74

Over 10

592 400 1,665 824

Total

Agencies Federal Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Over 15 5- 10 10

Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/

Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/

301

-S-

340

188 -

240

85 -

-- --

-- ---

S42

140

-480

--- -

54 --

621 -

456 -

-- --

-13

2,499

----

115 950 441

-8,081 8,359 -1,510

-- --

--- --

-5,731

-34

-3,133

--- -

--- 973 535

6,565 4,670

648

-13,110

255

10,061

186

2,002

Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

1/ 2/ 31

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 15, 1976

TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Period

Bills (1) 7,029 1,586

1975--High Low

*8,569 3,668

1976--High Low

*2,117 175

249 34

Excess** Reserves (5) 804 -42

Total (6) 609 17

Seasonal (7)

8 New York (8) -7,387 -1,757

655 -180

242 24

7,075 -2,367

38 Others (9) -11,632 - 7,207

-2 ,660 - 6,908

588

122

191

397

-3,551

, 4015

1,480 2,073 1,075

123 173 103

161 251 265

189 60 130

-2,644 -3,812 -2,811

- 9,202

4,959 5,214 5,910

1,220 1,051 778

97 181 151

232 256 223

79 81 54

-3,581

- 9,746

-4,138 -4,726

-10,015

5,750 4,239 4,996

605 591 582

133 199 196

155 210 214

43 114 127

-5,179 -4,402 -4,219

-10,783

5,743 6,174 *7,838

904 1,686 *1,509

211 116 172

234 247p 209p

132 lOOp 69p

-4,756

- 9,399 - 9,691 9 5 11 , p

4 11 18 25

6,201 6,103 5,478 5,856

977 2,060 1,960 1,602

107 101 167 89

436 -36 337 118

157 122 85 67

-3,598 -5,170 -4,575 -4,469

- 8,908

1 8 15 22 29

7,539 7,932 7,628 *8,569 *7,520

1,568 1,705 1,613 *1,447 *1,152

145 107 170 220 219

290 273 259 42 212 p

-5,165 -7,075 -5,965 -4,498 -5,357

- 8,016 - 9,647

Dec. 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar.

July Aug. Sept,

Oct.

(2) 2,845 253

5,766 4,751 4,822

Oct. Nov.

Sept.

Issues

Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit

5,008

1975--Sept.

1976--Aug.

ICoupon

Underwriting Syndicate Positions Municipal Corporate Bonds Bonds (3) (4) 389 48

6 13 20 27

*7,020

*5,549

*1,896 *2,117

205 210p

414p 206p

93 45 61 44 88p 102p 47p

-4,624 7 -5, 90p

-6, 69p -8,037p

-10,159 -10,418

- 9,640 - 8,151 - 9,158

-11,321 -10,744 - 8,941

-11,668 -10,474 - 7,737 - 9,

16p

-11,417p

NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. *

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

**Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 15, 1976

(FR)

TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per cent)

Short-Term Treasury Bills

90-119 Day

CD's New Issue-NYC

Long-Term Aaa Utility

Municipal

60-Day

90-Day

(5) 7.88 5.25

(6) 7.75 5.38

(7) 9.80 8.89

(8) 9.71 9.06

7.67 6.27

8.63 7.63

5.90 5.00

5.63 4.75

5.75 4.88

8.95 8.16

8.94 8.20

7.13 6.25

8.17 7.64

7.20

6.79

6.44

6.81

9.68

9.57

7.44

5.96 5.48 5.44

6.48 6.07 6.16

6.35 5.78 5.88

6.08 5.69 5.65

6.45 6.03 5.83

9.45 9.20 9.36

9.43 9.26 9.21

4.87 4.77 4.84

4.87 4.88 5.00

5.44 5.53 5.82

5.15 5.13 5.25

4.91 4.84 5.05

5.03 5.06 5.20

8.70 8.63 8.62

Apr. May June

4.82 5.29 5.48

4.86 5.20 5.41

5.54 5.98 6.12

5.08 5.44 5.83

4.81 5.25 5.55

4.94 5.38 5.68

8.48 8.82 8.72

July Aug. Sept.

5.31 5.29 5.25

5.23 5.14 5.08

5.82 5.64 5.50

5.54 5.35 5.33

5.30 5.23 5.11

1976--Aug.

5.36 5.25 5.29 5.28

5.15 5.18 5.15 5.13

5.74 5.67 5.63 5.63

5.38 5.38 5.38 5.35

5.20

1 8 15 22 29

5.28 5.25 5.22 5.21 5.32

5.09 5.10 5.12 5.06 5.07

5.57 5.54 5.56 5.42 5.50

6 13 20 27

5.17 5.02

5.07 4.94

5.12 4.96 p

5.03 4.85

Period

90-Day

1-Year

(1)

(2)

(3)

1975-High Low

7.70 5.13

6.68 5.02

7.31 5.46

1976-High Low

5.58 4.70

5.53 4.73

6.32 5.18

1975-Sept.

6.24

6.42

5.82 5.22 5.20 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar.

Sept.

Oct.

Daily-Oct.

7 14

Commercial Paer

(4)

Recently Offered

Bond Buyer

(9)

U.S. Govt.

New sue

Federal Fuda

20-

Yr. Constant Maturity)

(10)

FNMA Auction Yield

GNMA Guaranteed Securities

(11) 9.95 8.78

(12) 9.10 7.93

8.57

9.20 8.80 9.78

8.45 7.96 8.97

7.39 7.43 7.31

8.35 8.28 8.23

9.80 9.80 9.31

8.87 8.50 8.56

8.79 8.63 8.61

7.07 6.94 6.92

8.01 8.03 7.97

9.10 9.06 9.05

8.37 8.29 8.30

8.52 8.77 8.73

6.60 6.87 6.87

7.86 8.13 8.03

8.89 9.09 9.13

8.10 8.33 8.35

8.63 8.52 8.29

6.79 6.61 6.51

8.00 7.91 7.78

9.05 8.99 8.88

5.25

8.60 8.49

5.25 5.20

8.47

6.65 6.60 6.60 6.58

7.99 7.93 7.89 7.86

8.37 8.30 8.10 8.37 8.37 8.27 8.25

5.30 5.38 5.38 5.33 5.25

5.10 5.13 5.13 5.10 5.10

8.38 8.28 8.28 8.23 8.29

6.52 6.52 6.50 6.52 6.47

7.82 7.81 7.79 7.74 7.76

5.39 5.18

5.25 5.19

5.10 4.88

6.33 6.25

7.69 7 .64p

5.26 5.05

5.25 5.13

5.20 5.00

8.26 8.16p

8.23 8.20p

9.01

8.97 8.92 8.84 8.80

8.25 8.13 8.13 8.02 8.13 8.06 7.96

7.69 7.64(10/13)

IOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown *re for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Colnas 8 and 9 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 12 is a 1-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward conmitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on ortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FRA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling.

APPENDIX TABLE 1-A

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

OCT.

15,

1976

Period

(Per cent annual rates of growth) ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975

6.7 7. 1 -0.4

6.0 9.2 1.3

1.7 0.9

6.0 4.7 4.1

8 .8 7 .2 8 .5

5.6 5.7

5.6 2.6

9 .8 6..8

6.7

5.6

.5 .2 .9

13.8 9.2 4.4

11.6 10.6 6.4

10.6 9.0 9.7

11.9 10.1

6.9 5.7

9.9 9.2

9.5 10.0

12.1

6.3

9.2

8.6

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF 2ND HALF

1975 1975

-1.2 0.3

1ST

1976

-1.2

HALF

-1.2

10 .8

QUARTERLY: 4TH OTR. 1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD QTR.

1975 1976 1976 1976

1.4

4.5

7.3

1.6

9.3

8.4

10.0

11.3

-6.2 3.9 0.3

-5.3 3.1 1.1

4.6 8.B 5.4

4.3 6.8 4.1

12.6 11.3 13.5

5.0 7.6 5.7

8.4 9.8 10.0

7.7 9.3 9.2

QUART ERLY-AV: 4TH QTR.

1975

0.6

2.7

5.6

2.3

9.4

6.7

9.4

9.9

1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR.

1976 1976 1976

-3.8 0.8 3.0

-3.2 0.5 3.0

5.3 8.5 6.0

2.6 8.4 4.1

11.4 12.4 12.0

5.7 7.1 6.4

8.6 9.6 9.8

8.7 9.0 9.0

3.9

-2.6 0.8 14.3 -1.6

2.8 3.6 11.1 7.0

1.6 -0.8 9.0 -3.2

8.5 8.7 11.9 7.1

4.3 7.9 11.7 5.3

8.2 9.9 12.1 7.7

6.5 10.3 14.3 8.9

5.7 10.1 14.3 9.1

7.2 9.8 7.9 12.2 6.9 9.9 11.5 7.3 11.0

7.1 8.2 7.7 11.2 6.6 9.9 10.4 6.0 10.9

7.1 8.0 7.8 11.4 7.2 10.4

MONTHLY: 1976--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. NOTESt 1/ P -

-6.3

9.7 0.8

-10.2

-8.4 2.6 11.9 1.2 3.5 4.0 -6.9 5.7 14.7 7.0 7.0 -0.8 4.3 6.1 11.0 1.1 0.7 12.2 14.9 14.7 10.9 7.0 4.0 1.5 10.8 3.1 6.4 6.9 6.6 7.0 8.0 8.6 -0.8 5.2 1.8 1.6 6.7 13.3 9.8 6.5 4.8 6.0 13.2 0.8 5.9 P 4.5 -5.6 -4.3 13.5 6.3 -0.4 IIu U----U IU I ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, RELATED INSTITUTIONSt AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. PRELIMINARY -6.8 -1.7

LOANS SOLD

TO BANK-

10.4

6.0 10.8

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES OCT.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BANK CREDIT MEASURES

BANK RESERVES!/

15,

1976

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

Total Period

Total

Adj.

Loans

bor borrowed

Monetary Base

Credit proxy

and Investments

32,390 34,693 34,539

31,092 33,966 34,409

96,051 104,892 110,930

449.4 495.3 514.4

637.7 695.2 725.5

270.5 283.1 294.8

571.4 612.4 664.3

919.5 981.6 1092.9

634.9 702.2 747.2

982.9 1071.4 1175.8

1093.7 1191.0 131U.3

1132.0 1232.7 1351.9

34,421

34,024

108,949

505.5

717.2

293.6

652.9

1068.1

731.9

1147.1

1274.4

1314.8

OCT. NOV. DEC.

34,239 34.515 34,539

34,048 34,455 34,409

109,279 110,287 110,930

508.0 514.1 514.4

721.0 726.9 725.5

293.4 295.6 294.8

655.8 662.1 664.3

1075.8 1086.5 1092.9

736.7 743.9 747.2

1156.6 1168.3 1175.8

1285.3 1300.6 1310.3

1325.9 1341.7 1351.9

1976--JAN. FEB. MAR.

34,245 34,052 34,003

34,167 33,971 33,949

111,171 111,538 112,192

514.1 515.6 516.0

727.6 731.2 735.4

295.1 296.5 298.0

670.2 678.5 683.4

1103.7 1117.2 1127.4

749.4 753.8 756.5

1182.9 1192.6 1200.5

1318.0 1327.0 1335.5

1359.9 1369.0 1377.9

APR. MAY JUNE

34,024 34,136 34t335

33,980 34,022 34,209

113,333 113,994 114,653

517.3 515.3 522.3

738.7 742.0 743.3

301.7 303.3 303.1

691.9 697.2 700.3

1141.2 1151.5 1159.2

763.4 765.4 770.9

1212.7 1219.7 1229.8

1348.0 1355.4 1366.6

1391.0 1399.4 1411.5

JULY AUG. SEPT. P

34,387 34,524 34,364

34,254 34,424 34,302

115,150 115,769 116,202

523.6 522.5 523.3

747.6 752.7 756.4

304.8 306.3 306.2

707.6 713.4 719.4

1172.0 1184.9 1198.2

777.2 777.7 781.8

1241.6 1249.2 1260.6

1378.4 1385.3 1397.9

1423.7 1430.8 1443.7

11 18 25

34t226 34,725 34t355

34,104 34,640 34,287

115,397 115,966 115,764

522.8 523.0 521.9

306.3 307.3 306.4

712.0 714.1 714.7

777.4 778.5 778.2

1 8 15 22 29P

34,505 34,278 34,467 34 045 34,608

34,412 34,233 34,406 34,001 34,520

115,817 115,785 116,288 115,987 116,703

522.6 521.5 524.1 524.6 522.6

305.9 304.3 308.9 305.8 304.8

715.6 715.6 721.7 719.9 719.7

778.5 778.0 783.7 782.1 782.6

34,644

34,542

116,913

528.6

308.8

725.7

788.4

ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975

MONTHLY: 1975--SEPT.

WEEKLY;

1976-AUG.

SEPT.

OCT.

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLO TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY

NOTES:

OCT.15,

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

1976

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits Period

Currency

Demand Deposits

Total

Other Than CD's

Mutual Savings Bank & S&L S 2

CD's

Total

Savings

Other

h T Short TrCommercial aer Uin .S.Gov't ScPaper./

Credit Union hares s

Bond

8.5 5.6 15.8

13.8 12.1 20.2

4.9 ".#b 6.2

31.3 11.9

19.5

39.3 9.1 -0.5

(Per cent annual rates of growth)

ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975

8.1 10.2 8.7

5.3 3.0 2.6

16.2 15.0 7.9

11.4 9.4 12.2

2.8 7.0 17.8

18.7 11.2 8.2

45.6 41.4 -7.7

4.4 0.9

7.6 7.8

13.4 10.4

18.2 16.0

10.0 6.1

-12.7 -2.9

15.2 15.2

20.9 17.6

5.7 6.5

6.7 31.3

5.7 -6.5

4.1

6.9

15.0

23.6

8.5

-29.7

14.0

16.8

6.3

0.3

15.9

12.9

11.6

15.6

6.2

19.2

12.5

17.6

6.0

41.3

11.9

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST MALF 2ND HALF

1975 1975

9.4 7.6

1ST HALF

1976

10.6

4TH QTR.

1975

9.4

15T QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD QTR.

1976 1976 1976

10.9 10.0 8.2

2.4 5.8 2.7

5.4 8.2 6.6

17.1 12.4 16.0

32.4 13.6 19.0

5.6 11.3 13.8

-47.3 -13.7 -46.5

14.3

13.2 17.4

16.8 16.1 15.5

6.5 5.9 11.5

-3.6 4.2

-8.3

7.7 s3.6 8.0

14.0

16.5

6.1

23.5

-1

13.4 13.8 15.3

17.1 16.4 15.7

6.6 5.9 9.3

12.3 0.0 -4.8

9.7 17.1 15.5

14.9 13.5 12.4 11.3

15.2 18.8 14.6 18.3

5.5 7.3

-23.2 21.6 63.8 34.9

-20.4 3.0 17.b 14.6

13.4

18.0 10.7 Z1.1 13.6 13.7 20.3 10.0 19.8 16.2

7.1 7.1 5.3 5.3 7.0 5.2 10.4 12.0 11.9

3.6 -19.6

8.7 5.7 8.6 17.0 15.1 27.3 13.& 2.6 7.9

QUARTERLY: -1.1

QUARTE RLY-AV: 4TH UTR.

1975

8.4

0.2

9.7

9.8

14.4

6.6

9.5

1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD QTR.

1976 1976 1976

9.8 11.7 7.8

0.4 7.2 2.8

7.8 6.3

8.0

15.9 13.7 14.1

28.3 21.7 13.4

6.7 7.0 14.9

-29.3 -30.6 -26.2

1975- SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

1.7 10.0 13.2 4.9

1.6 -4.3 7.1 -5.9

5.8 13.7 13.5 11.0

6.0 10.7 13.6 10.1

13.4 11.7 14.6 20.5

0.6 10.0 12.8 1.7

4.6 27.3

1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. P

8.1 14.6 9.6 15.9 11.0 3.1 9.3 6.1 9.2

-1.1 3.8 4.3 14.6 5.3

5.3 7.7 3.1 8.4 1.0 15.1 11.. -2.3 10.4

18.2 21.4 11.0 14.9 11.4 10.4 16.6 12.8 18.0

26.9 44.6 23.3 22.1 18.3 0.0 11.4 21.9 22.8

12.1 4.0 0.6 9.6 5.1 19.0 20.9 6.0 14.0

-53.6 -57.6 -36.6 -27.9 -53.8 42.2 -17.0 -89.7 -37.3

MONTL Y

. -

1/ P -

5.9 5.3 -3.2 . a

. -

GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY.

13.4 16.1

14.7 14.2 14.1 13.3 11.7 14.2 18.8 18.5 . -

BY AVERAGING

. -

END OF

CURRENT

5.4 5.4

a -

5.4 0.0

0.0 12.6 -8.9 -25.1

9.2 * -

MONTH AND END OF

. -

OCT.

15,

1976

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits Currency Demand Deposits

Period

Total

Mutual Credit Savings

Union Savings hares Bonds

ShortTerm US Gov't

mercial Paper

Com

CD's

Bank & S&L

Savings 5

Other 6

Sharesl 8

Sec I/ 11

Other Than CD's

i_/

Total Non Total Gov't Deposit Funds Dean

_Depo 13

Total 4

61.5 67.8 73.7

209.0 215.3 221.0

364.4 419.1 452.4

300.9 329.3 369.6

127.3 136.2 160.5

173.6 193.1 209.0

63.5 89.8 82.9

323.5 341.6 395.5

24.7 27.7 33.3

60.4 63.3 67.2

50.3 56.3 67.3

36.3 41.8 41-,6

0.6 8.4 8.4

7.3 b.o 7.0

72.0

221.6

438.3

359.2

154.4

204.8

79.1

383.5

31.9

66.2

61.0

40.4

7.0

6.t

OCT. NOV. DEC.

72.6 73.4 73.7

220.8 222.1 221.0

443.3 448.3 452.4

362.4 366.5 369.6

155.9 157.8 160.5

206.5 208.7 209.0

80.9 81.8 82.9

387.8 391.8 395.5

3t.4 32.8 33.3

66.6 66.9 67.2

6L.1 65.4 67.3

40.5 41.1 41.6

7.', 6b., 6.4

8. 9.6 7.o

1976-JAN. FEB. MAR.

74.2 75.1 75.7

220.8 221.5 222.3

454.4 457.3 458.5

375.2 381.9 385.4

164.1 170.2 173.5

211.1 211.8 211.9

79.2 75.4 73.1

399.9 404.8 409.6

33.8 34.1 34.7

67.6 68.0 68.3

67.5 66.4 o6.7

41.9 4i.1 42.4

7.9 8.0 8.2

6.0 10.9 10.9

APR. MAY JUNE

76.7 77.4 77.6

225.0 226.0 225.5

461.7 462.1 467.9

390.2 393.9 397.3

176.7 179.4 179.4

213.6 214.5 217.9

71.4 68.2 70.6

414.4 419.0 423.1

35.1 35.5 36.1

68.6 69.0 69.3

66.7 66.7 67.4

43.0 43.9 44.9

7.5 7.6 6.4

JULY AUG. SEPT. P

78.2 78.6 79.2

226.6 227.6 227.0

472.4 471.5 475.6

402.8 407.1 413.2

181.1 184.4 187.9

221.7 222.8 225.4

69.6 64.4 62.4

428.1 434.8 441.5

36.4 37.0 37.5

69.9 70.6 71.3

66.9 65.5 66.0

45.4 -+5.5 45.8

8.6 6.9 8.2

9.0 13.8 13.0

11 18 25

78.7 78.6 78.7

227.6 228.6 227.7

471.1 471.2 471.8

405.7 406.9 408.3

183.6 184.2 185.0

222.1 222.6 223.3

65.4 64.4 63.5

8.7 9.2 9.3

11.4 12.7 16.5

1 8 15 22 29P

78.6 79.1 79.1 79.3 79.3

227.4 225.2 229.8 226.6 225.4

472.5 473.7 474.8 476.3 477.8

409.7 411.3 412.8 414.1 415.0

185.9 186.8 187.5 188.2 189.1

223.8 224.5 225.2 225.9 225.9

62.8 62.4 62.0 62.2 62.9

8.6 7.9 7.7 8.7

8.4

15.9 16.0 10.0 12.7 12.5

79.8

229.0

479.6

416.9

190.8

226.1

62.7

8.4

13.1

ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975

MONTHLY: 1975-SEPT.

7.4 7.4 9.t6

MEEKLY: 1976-AUG.

SEPT.

OCT.

1/ 2/ P -

ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY

MONTH REPDRTEb DATA.

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1976, October 18). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19761019

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19761019,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1976},
  month = {Oct},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19761019},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}