bluebooks · November 15, 1976

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing).

A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Content last modified 6/05/2009.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

November 12, 1976

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

November 12,

1976

CLASS I - FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1)

M1 grew at a 14.5 per cent annual rate in October, after

remaining essentially unchanged in September.

In November M1 growth

appears to be moderating significantly, however, and for the OctoberNovember period it is now projected at a 9.5 per cent annual rate--somewhat above the upper end of the Committee's 5-9 per cent operating range. With time and savings deposit inflows at commercial banks also running stronger than anticipated, M2 is expected to grow at a 14.1 per cent annual rate in the October-November period, also above the upper limit of its 2-month range.

Growth of deposits at nonbank thrift institutions also

remained rapid during October, though less so than in the third quarter. As a result of the increased demand for reserves associated with the strength in demand and time deposits, nonborrowed reserves appear to be increasing at an 8.7 per cent annual rate in the October-November period-a considerably more rapid pace than over the preceding months of the

year.-

1/ Appendix A contains a discussion of the actual behavior of nonborrowed reserves in the weeks between the October and November meetings relative to the behavior that was expected to be consistent with the Committee's short-run ranges for monetary growth.

Growth in Monetary Aggregates over October-November Period (SAAR in per cent) Ranges

5 to 9

9 to 13

Memo: Federal funds rate

Latest Estimates

9.6 14.1

Avg. for statement week ending

(Per cent per annum)

Oct. 20 27

4.97 4.99

Nov.

5.06 4.98

3 10

(2) Shortly after the October FOMC meeting, incoming data suggested that growth in M1 and M 2 would be at the upper limits of the Committee's ranges.

In these circumstances it appeared likely that the

immediate reduction in the funds rate objective contemplated by the FOMC at its October meeting would have to be quickly reversed.

The Chairman,

therefore, recommended--and a majority of the members concurred--that the Desk continue aiming for a Federal funds rate at about the prevailing level of 5 per cent.

In the following week, with additional data suggesting

continued strength in the aggregates, the Chairman advised the Desk that an increase in the funds rate would be inconsistent with the Committee's intentions. (3) Interest rates have fluctuated within a narrow range since the October Committee meeting.

Most market rates edged upwards, as

market expectations of an immediate further decline in the Federal funds rate were apparently disspelled early in the intermeeting period by published weekly data suggesting that the monetary aggregates would grow substantially in October.

In lagged response to earlier declines in market

yields, however, the bank prime rate was reduced ¼ of a point to 6½ per cent.

In the mortgage market, the FNMA auction yield and interest rates

on conventional home mortgages reported by savings and loan associations have declined somewhat in recent weeks.

Stock prices have fallen

significantly further since the October FOMC meeting. (4)

Corporate demands for long term credit, after being very

strong through much of October, have been moderating recently, but the volume of new tax exempt bond offerings has remained quite high.

The

Treasury has also been an active borrower over the period since the October FOMC meeting, raising $1.3 billion of new money through the sale of 2-year notes in late October and $2.5 billion in connection with its mid-November refunding.

In the refunding, the Treasury auctioned $3.3

billion of 3-year notes at an average rate of 6.36 per cent, $2.2 billion of 7-year notes at an average rate of 7.02 per cent and $1.0 billion of a reopened 23¼ year bond at an average rate of 7.79 per cent.

These issues

have most recently been trading around their auction averages.

Dealers

have made fairly good progress in distributing the large awards they

received in the auctions. (5) The table on the following page shows (in terms of percentage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows

over various time periods.

Calendar Year 1975

Twelve Months Oct. '76 over Oct. '75

Past Six Months Oct.'76 over Apr.'76

Past Three Months Oct.'76 over July'76

Past Month Oct.'76 over Sept.'76

Nonborrowed reserves

1.3

1.0

2.5

1.7

3.5

Total reserves

-.4

0.7

2.8

1.2

4.6

Monetary Base

5.8

7.0

6.3

6.0

7.1

M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/

4.1

5.7

5.4

6.7

14.5

M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's)

8.5

10.7

10.2

11.6

15.9

M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) 11.3

12.6

14.3

16.4

(M2 plus CD's)

6.4

6.9

6.7

14.0

(M3 plus CD's)

9.7

10.1

10.3

11.1

15.2

Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.)

3.9

4.1

4.4

4.0

12.1

Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/

4.4

6.0

6.9

8.8

12.2

-.6

-1.6

-2.5

-0.4

-.2

0.1

-.5

-.2

Concepts of Money (Revised Series)

Bank Credit

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper

-.1

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments Summarized below are three alternative sets of short-run

(6)

specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate. More detailed data, including longer-run growth rates, are shown in the tables on pp. 5a and 5b. Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Ranges for November-December M1

3-7

2½-6½

2-6

10-14

9½-13½

8½-12½

Federal funds rate (Intermeeting period) (7)

4-5

4½-5½

5-6

Each of the alternatives presented is believed to be generally

consistent with the longer-run ranges for the aggregates covering the QIII '76-QIII '77 period adopted by the Committee at the November 8 telephone meeting.

But each of the shorter-run alternatives implies a

different pattern of interest rates and of money growth rates within the QIII '76-QIII '77 period, as summarized in the following table.1/ Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

6¼

5¾

4-7/8

5-1/8

5-3/8

QIII '76-QI '77 Growth in M1 Average funds rate QI '77-QIII '77 Growth in M1 Average funds rate

4½ 6-1/8

4¾ 5-7/8

5 5½

The projected quarterly patterns of the funds rate over the next year are shown in Appendix table II.

-5aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1976

October November December

310.0 311.2 312.5

310.0 311.2 312.3

310.0 311.2 312.1

725.9 733.6 740.8

725.9 733.2 740.1

725.9 732.9 738.8

1211.7 1225.6 1239.6

1211.7 1225.1 1238.1

1211.7 1224.6 1236.2

1976

QIII QIV

305.9 311.2

305.9 311.1

710.9 733.4

710.9 733.1

710.9 732.5

1182.5 1225.6

1182.5 1225.0

1182.5 1224.2

1977

QI QII QIII

315.5 319.6 322.8

315.3 319.1 322.8

314.7 318.6 322.8

754.0 771.0 783.6

752.3 768.4 783.0

750.3 767.1 783.7

1265.0 1297.7 1322.4

1261.9 1292.7 1320.7

1258.7 1291.3 1323.4

12.7 11.6

12.1 11.3

11.6 9.7

13.8 13.7

13.3 12.7

12.8 11.4

12.2

14.6

14.4

14.1

Growth Rates Monthly: 1976

November December

4.6 5.0

4.6 4.2

Quarterly Average: 1976

QIV

6.9

6.8

12.7

12.5

1977

QI QII

QIII

5.5 5.2 4.0

5.3 4.8 4.6

4.6 5.0 5.3

11.2 9.0 6.5

10.5 8.6 7.6

9.7 9.0 8.7

12.9 10.3 7.6

12.0 9.8 8.7

11.3 10.4 9.9

Semi-annual QIII '76-QI '77 QI '77-QIII '77

6.3 4.6

6.1 4.8

5.8 5.1

12.1 7.9

11.6 8.2

11.1 8.9

14.0 9.1

13.4 9.3

12.9 10.3

Annual QIII '76-QIII '77

5.5

10.2

10.1

10.2

11.8

11.7

11.9

FOMC Longer-run Range QIII '76-QIII '77

44-6%

74-10

9-11

-5bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1976

October November December

787.9 794.5 801.3

787.9 794.1 800.3

787.9 793.8 799.4

1273.7 1286.6 1299.8

1273.7 1286.0 1298.2

1273.7 1285.5 1296.7

528.8 533.0 535.0

528.8 532.7 534.2

528.8 532.5 533.8

1976

QIII

QIV

776.3 794.6

776.3 794.1

776.3 793.7

1248.0 1286.7

1248.0 1286.0

1248.0 1285.3

523.2 532.3

523.2 531.9

523.2 531.7

QI QII QIII

813.7 831.6 846.7

812.1 829.8 846.5

810.8 828.5 846.8

1324.7 1358.2 1385.5

1321.7 1354.0 1384.1

1319.2 1352.8 1386.5

540.9 553.0 564.5

539.9 552.0 564.5

539.2 551.2 564.6

1977

Growth Rates Monthly: 1976

November December

10.1 10.3

9.4 9.4

12.2 12.3

11.6 11.4

11.1 10.5

9.5 4.5

8.9 3.4

8.4 2.9

9.2

12.4

12.2

12.0

7.0

6.7

6.5

9.1 8.7 8.1

11.8 10.1 8.0

11.1 9.8 8.9

10.6 10.2 10.0

6.5 8.9 8.3

6.0 9.0 9.1

5.6 8.9 9.7

12.3 9.2

11.8 9.4

11.4 10.2

6.8 8.7

6.4 9.1

6.1 9.4

11.0

10.9

11.1

7.9

Quarterly Averages: 1976

QIV

1977

QI QII

QIII

9.6

8.8 7.3

Semi-annual

QIII '76-QI '77

9.6

QI '77-QIII '77

8.1

9.2 8.5

9.1

9.0

Annual

QIII '76-QIII '77

9.1

(8)

Alternative A involves an easing in money market conditions

over the next few weeks--with the funds rate moving down to the mid-point

of a 4-5 per cent range.

However, assuming the staff's projection of the

rate of expansion in nominal GNP over the next year is correct, interest rates would not be expected to decline for long and would probably soon have to

begin rising if M1 growth over the QIII '76-QIII '77 period were to be kept to around 5½ per cent (the mid-point of the Committee's longer-run range of 4½-6½ per cent).

On balance, money market conditions would be somewhat

easier and monetary growth rates somewhat more rapid over the next six months under alternative A than under alternatives B or C. On the other hand, alternative A would involve greater monetary restraint in the second six months of the QIII '76-QIII '77 period. (9) Alternative B involves maintenance of the Federal funds rate at around 5 per cent over the next few weeks.

We have also assumed

that credit and money demands would not begin to exert significant upward pressures on the rate until around the middle of the first quarter of 1977.

Moreover, because alternative B--in contrast to alternative A--

does not involve any additional stimulation over the near term, not as much monetary restraint would be required in the spring and summer of next year to attain a one-year growth rate of 5½ per cent in M1.

As a

result, the funds rate would rise less than under alternative A. (10)

Alternative C involves a tightening in the money market

over the next few weeks, with the funds rate rising to around 5½ per cent by the time of the next Committee meeting.

With such an early effort to

restrain growth in the aggregates, we would expect that little, if any, further tightening would be required later. (11)

In general, under all three alternatives, the staff fore-

sees less upward pressure on interest rates than it had earlier.

Transactions

needs for money are expected to be lower than thought earlier because the staff's projection of nominal GNP over the next year has been further reduced.

Also, of course, financial innovations of the past year or two are expected to continue to reduce the demand for M 1 over the coming year. (12)

If our assessment of the interest rate outlook is correct,

it appears likely that growth in M 2 and M 3 over the QIII '76-QIII '77 period under any of the three alternatives may be at, or a shade above, the upper ends of the 7½-10 and 9-11½ per cent ranges adopted for them by the Committee.

In making these estimates, we have assumed no substantial

near-term efforts by banks and thrift institutions to discourage recent large inflows of time and savings deposits (other than large CD's) by lowering offering rates on time certificates or by other means.

If such

efforts develop, or if upward market interest rate pressures turn out to be stronger than expected, growth in M2 and M 3 would be more likely to fall within the Committee's ranges. (13)

Under any of the alternatives presented, we expect M1

growth over the November-December period to be modest.

Assuming unchanged

money market conditions over the next few weeks, as under alternative B, M1 may expand in a 2½-6½ per cent annual rate range during the 2-month period.

Incoming data for early November suggest a sharp deceleration

in growth during the current month from the unusually high October rate

Moreover, growth is unlikely to strengthen in December, given the sluggish expansion in economic activity now expected in the fourth quarter.

If the

mid-point of the 2½-6½ per cent November-December range is realized, growth in M1 from the third to the fourth quarter would be at almost a 7 per cent annual rate. (14) and December.

Expansion in M 2 is expected to be quite sizable in November Recent data suggest that net inflows of time and savings

deposits (other than large CD's) at banks are continuing at around the rapid September-October pace.

Interest rates on such deposits are expected

to remain attractive over the weeks ahead as competing market interest rates remain relatively low, especially under alternatives A and B.

With

the unchanged money market conditions of alternative B, growth for M2 during November-December may be in a 9½-13½ per cent annual rate range-the mid-point of which is above the upper limit of the Committee's longerrun range.

(The mid-point of the 2-month M1 growth band, on the other hand,

is at the lower limit of its longer-run range).

The tightening of money

market conditions contemplated under alternative C may reduce the 2-month M 2 growth rate to an 8½-12½ per cent range. (15)

Credit demands are not expected to be particularly strong

between now and year-end.

Neither information from the banking community

nor underlying economic forces suggest that business loan growth at banks will be as large in the weeks ahead as it was in October, when there was a surge in loan growth.

Corporate demands on capital markets--particularly

the public bond market--seem to be in process of moderating, but a large volume of foreign bond offerings is scheduled over the next few weeks.

The Treasury will probably raise $5 to $7 billion of new cash in the market between now and year-end, but borrowing of this size has probably already been discounted in the market. (16)

Thus, if the funds rate over the next few weeks stays around

its currently prevailing level of 5 per cent, market interest rates generally are not likely to be under any upward pressure from the demand side.

If incoming economic data remain weak and expectations of a further

easing in monetary policy once again develop, interest rates might edge down.

And if the Federal funds rate should decline over the next few

weeks by about ½ percentage point, short-term rates may well drop substantially, with the 3-month bill rate perhaps falling to around 4 cent. spread.

per

Expectations of a discount rate decline would become more wideDownward pressures on institutional rates--such as the prime loan

rate and primary mortgage market rates--would intensify.

On the other

hand, if the Federal funds rate were to rise by about ½ percentage point, there might be very considerable upward market rate adjustments in the short run--particularly in the U.S. Government securities market, where dealer positions are currently very large.

-10Proposed directive (17)

Given below is a proposed operational paragraph for the

directive if the Committee wishes to continue formulating its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. No alternatives are presented for this formulation, in the expectation that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the longer-term targets and that at this meeting the Committee will not reconsider those targets. "Monetary Aggregates" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. (18)

Should the Committee desire to place main emphasis on bank

reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought.

Three alternative "money market" direc-

tives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below. Alternative "Money Market" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money market conditions

-11{DEL: consistent with moderate IMMEDIATELY ahead,

monetary in growth

aggregates] over the period

PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE

GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: achieve] MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: consistent with

moderate growth in monetary aggregates]over

the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT FIRMER bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates]over the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

APPENDIX A Comparison of Actual and Targeted Reserves The table below compares the actual average level of reserves for the four-week period ending November 17 with the "targeted" level that had been thought consistent with the mid-points of the short-run ranges for the monetary aggregates adopted at the last FOMC meeting. /

Targeted

Nonborrowed reserves

34,601

34,362

239

Required reserves

34,462

34,134

328

139

228

-89

Actual 1.

(2+3)

2. 3.

(4-5)

Free reserves

Differences

Excess reserves

241

263

-22

Member bank borrowing

102

34,703

34,397

306

82,660

83,023

-363

117,363

117,420

6. 7. 8.

(1+5)

Total reserves Currency

(6+7) Monetary base

As can be seen from the table, actual nonborrowed reserves were $240 million higher than the "targeted" level.

Required reserves were

about $330 million above expectations as deposits

subject to reserves

turned out to be significantly higher than expected.

The Desk did not

have to increase nonborrowed reserves by quite that amount to keep the funds rate unchanged because banks' demand for free reserves was lower than expected. Total reserves were also higher than expected.

But the monetary

base was near the targeted level, as currency expanded less than expected.

1/ Includes week of November 17, which is partly estimated.

Appendix Table I

Reserve Measures Consistent With Short-run Alternatives (seasonally adjusted) Change from average of previous 4-week period ($ million)

Average of 5 weeks Nov. 24 to Dec. 22

($ million) Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C 34,53 7

Alt. B

Alt. C

3.1

2.1

0.5

Alt. A

-45

-13

-31

34,645

-30

-58

2.1

1.5

1.0

118,183

118,155

854

820

792

7.8

7.5

7.4

118,126

118,047

918

865

786

8.0

7.7

7.4

108

246

228

8) 21 0

34,707

34,673

Monetary base1/

118,217

Nonborrowed monetary base

118,179

Excess reserves

Alt. C -64

34,616

Member bank borrowing

Alt. B 15

34,669

Nonborrowed reserves

Alt. A

2-month Annual Percentage Growth Rate for Nov.-Dec.

-64

Other reserve aggregates:

Total reserves

Total reserves plus currency held outside the Treasury,

the Federal Reserve,

and member banks.

Appendix Table II Projected Federal Funds Rates Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C 5k

QII

QIII

1976 QIV 1977 QI

Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate)

Q 10.3

3.6

7.4

7.3

9.2

8.4

10.1

6.4

9.9

8.2

9.8

8.5

1.8

5.5

6.3

7.9

6.1

7.8

5.1

9.0

9.9

8.4

QIV '72-QIV '73

6.0

6.2

8.8

9.0

1974

5.3

6.0

9.0

9.6

8.4

8.9

5.3

5.6

6.9

7.4

5.7

6.5

III

3.0

4.2

5.5

6.4

5.2

5.6

4.7

4.0

6.6

6.4

7.2

6.5

QIV '73-QIV '74

4.7

5.0

7.2

7.7

6.8

7.1

1975

1.4

0.6

6.9

5.6

9.0

7.5

9.7

7.4

12.5

10.2

14.5

12.6

III

3.6

7.1

6.5

10.1

10.7

13.3

1.6

2.3

7.0

6.4

QIV '74-QIV '75

4.1

4.4

8.5

8.3

11.3

11.1

4.5

2.7

11.0

9.7

12.3

11.2

6.8

8.4

9.3

10.8

11.0

12.0

III

4.1

10.3

9.2

13.1

11.6

1973

1976

10.5

9.3

9.4

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

CHART 1

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1

11/12/76

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320

ANHV 300

280

jli/ .

...

I1i

[

BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2

1976

S 1976

CHART 2

11/12/76

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-540

520

500

RESERVES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

35 35

TO TA L

NONBORROWED 33

1975

1976

Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios.

CHART 3

11/12/76

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

PER CENT -8

INTEREST RATES Short-term

PER CENT 10

F.R. DISCOUNT

RATE

_J RESERVES

1975

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -1 2

1976

1975

1976

1975

1976

Table 1

MONETARY AGGREGATES

NOV.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC 12, 1976

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Period

Narrow (Ml)

Broad (M2)

Adjusted Credit Proxy

Total U.S. Govt. Deposits

Total

522.5 523.5 (528.8) (532.7)

13.8 13.1 ( 14.0) ( 12.5)

468.7 472.5 (477.9) (483.0)

404.4 410.1 (415.9) (422.1)

184.4 187.9 (192.5) (196.4)

220.0 222.2 (223.3) (225.6)

64.4 62.4 ( 62.0) ( 60.9)

Time and Savings Deposits Other Than CD'S T l Savings Other

_Nondeposit

CD'

M ker Sources of U.S.Govt. Deposits Funds 10

8.9 8.2 9.0) 8.7)

3.9 3.8 3.55 4.2

MONTHLY LEVELS-SBIL 306.4 306.3 (310.0) (311.2)

1976-AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. X ANNUAL

710.8 716.4 (725.9) (733.2)

( (

GROWTH

QUARTERLY 1976-1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR.

4.5 6.8 4.1

11.0 9.3 10.3

1.2 4.9 0.9

4.6 7.3 5.7

16.0 11.3 15.0

32.4 13.6 19.0

3.6 9.5 11.7

-46.8 -14.2 -46.5

2.7 8.4 4.1

9.7 10.8 9.2

2.3 2.4 3.8

7.2 5.3 7.1

15.3 12.5 13.2

28.3 21.7 13.4

5.6 5.1 12.7

-29.3 -30.6 -26.2

-2.5 2.3 12.1) 8.9)

( (

-3.3 9.7 13.7) 12.8)

( (

12.0 16.9 17.0) 17.9)

( (

21.9 22.8 29.4) 24.31

( (

3.8 12.0 5.9) 12.4)

-89.7 -37.3 ( -7.7) 1 -21.3)

10.5)

13.3)

(

17.6)

(

27.1)

(

9.2)

( -14.4)

OUARTERLY-AV 1976-1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. MONTHLY 1976--AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. OCT.-NOV.

(

5.9 -0.4 14.5) 4.6)

( (

9.2 9.5 15.9) ( 12.1) 1

(

9.6)

14.1)

(

WEEKLY LEVELS-SBIL 1976-0CT.

NOV.

NOTE: 1/ P -

6 13 20 27 3 P

310.0 310.8 308.7 310.4

723.8 725.7 724.4 727.7

528.9 527.1 529.2 529.6

13.0 13.8 15.6 14.2

476.5 477.3 477.7 478.6

413.8 414.9 415.7 417.3

191.0 192.0 192.4 193.5

222.8 222.9 223.3 223.8

62.7 62.4 62.0 61.4

8.4 8.6 9.2 9.4

3.1 3.2 4.0 3.5

310.6

729.3

532.1

14.9

480.0

418.7

194.5

224.2

61.3

9.5

4.0

DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 2 NOV.

BANK RESERVES

12,

1976

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES

Period

Total Reserves

Nonborrowed Reserves

REQUIRED RESERVES

Monetary Base

Total Required

Private Demand

Total Time Deposits

Gov't. and Interbank

MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1976--AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV.

34,424 34,298 (34,398) (34,766)

34,524 34,360 (34,492) (34,832)

115,770 116,201 (116,888) (117,835)

20,166 20,153 (20,131) (20,310)

34,317 34,159 134,266) 134,582)

11,797 11,653 (11,698) (11734)

2,355 2.352 I 2,437) I 2,537)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976-1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR.

3.9 0.3

-5.3 3.1 1.0

4.6 8.8 5.4

-5.7 4.0 0.4

-3.8 0.8 3.0

-3.2 0.5 3.0

5.3 8.5 6.0

-3.6 1.2 2.8

-6.2

-11.0 -1.0 -6.4

QUARTERLY-AV 1976--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR.

-1.0 4.2 3.6

-6.5 -4.4 -0.8

12.9

-20.6 -14.6 ( 4.6) ( 3.71

MONTHLY 1976--AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. OCT.-NOV.

( (

4.8 -5.7 4.6) 11.8)

6.0 -4.4 S 3.5) S12.8)

6.5 4.5 7.1) 9.71

5.8 -5.5 S 3.8) ( 11.1)

8.2)

S 8.2)

8.4)

(

-0.8 -1.3) 10.71 4.7)

7.4)

(

4.2)

WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1976-OCT.

NOV.

6 13 20 27

34,570 34,033 34,766 34,369

34t469 33,986 34,718 34,249

116,959 116,344 117,159 116,688

34,236 33,821 34,667 34,223

20,021 19,804 20,353 20,274

11,668 11,695 11,715 11,701

2,547

3 10

34,914 34,487

34,712 34,436

117,609 117,127

341466 34,428

20,228

11,712 11,710

2,526 2,462

I NOTE:

20,257

_____________I

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

_____________

CHANGES IN RESERVE

REQUIREMENT RATIO.

2,321 2e598 2,247

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC NOVEMBER 12, 1976 TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted)

Treasury Bills Net Change 2/

Period

Within 1-year

1 - 5

Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Over 10 5 - 10

Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Total

Within 1-year

1 - 5

5 - 10

Over 10

Total

Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/

Net RP's 6/

1972 1973

-490 7,232

87 207

789 579

539 500

167 129

1,582 1,415

46 120

592 400

253 244

168 101

1,059 864

1,631 9,273

-1,358 -46

1974 1975

1,280 -468

320 337

797 3,284

434 1,510

196 1,070

1,747 6,202

439 191

1,665 824

659 460

318 138

3,082 1,613

6,303 7,267

-154 1,272

1975--Qtr. III Qtr. IV

-757 1,294

13 74

712 385

201 234

171 315

1,096 1,006

64 58

514 141

106 71

63 14

747 284

1,060 2,626

2,392 -1,403

1976-Qtr. I Qtr. II

-363 2,067

115 109

554 796

226 245

156 134

1,052 1,284

102 3

288 140

108 57

38 40

535 240

1,022 3,371

1,256 1,654

171

881

345

160

1,557

1,398

392

-292 1,845

617

195

-990

140 -

57 --

40 --

240 --

-122 2,735

-958 1,351

-2,000 1,100 954

42 129

301 580

-72 272

-65 95

-480 1,077

----

--- --

-2,040 1,484 1,954

-2,334 2,093 633

Qtr. III 1976--May June July Aug. Sept.

418

Oct. 1976--Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

3 --

409

-1,742

-171

-186

2,002

-5,731

15 22 29

372 549

39 -

-340 -

-188 --

54 --

-621 --

--- -

--- -34 973 535

-3,133 6,565 4,670

6 13 20 27

204 255 364 -

90 -

240 --- 85 --- 41 --- 456 ----

-----

----

648 255 363 -3

-13,110 10,061 -2,158 -1,797

3 10

-200 -535

--- --

--- -

--- --

-199 -535

3,597 -4,105

17 24

Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includeschanges in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). 1/

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC NOVEMBER 12, 1976 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Period

Bills

Coupon Issues

(1)

(2)

1975--High Low

7,029 1,586

2,845 253

1976-High Low

6,569 3,668

*2,117 175

1975--Oct. Nov. Dec.

5,766 4,751 4,822

1976--Jan. Feb. Mar.

Underwriting Syndicate Positions Municipal Corporate Bonds Bonds

(3)

(4)

Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit Excess** Reserves

(5)

Total

Seasonal

(7)

(6)

8 New York

38 Others

(8)

(9)

-7,387 -1,757

-11,632 - 7,207

655 -180

-8,037 -2,367

-12,660

1,480 2,073 1,075

161 251 265

-2,644 -3,812 -2,811

- 9,202

4,959 5,214 5,910

1,220 1,051 778

232 256 223

-3,581 -4,138 -4,726

- 9,746 -10,015 - 9,640

Apr. May June

5,750 4,239 4,996

605 591 582

155 210 214

-5,179 -4,402 -4,219

- 8,151 - 9,158

July Aug. Sept.

5,743 6,174 7,838

904 1,686 1,509

234 207 205

-4,756 -4,624 -5,703

- 9,399 - 9,691 - 9,716

*6,271

*1,832

226p

15 22 29

7,539 7,932 7,628 8,569 7,520

1,568 1,705 1,613 1,447 1,152

6 13 20 27

7,020 5,549 *5,740 *6,254

1,896 2,117 *1,893 *1,653

1976--Sept.

Oct.

32p

- 6,908

-10,159 -10,418

-10,783

- ,514p

-in,500p

290 273 259 42 199

-5,165 -7,075 -5,965 -4,498 -5,357

- 8,016D - 9,647

334 212 121p 146p

-6,718 -7,911 -5,813 -5,098

-11,668 -10,474 - 7,737 9,037

-11,640 -10,835 -10,484

-10,132p 7p -5,7 0p 202p 417p 253 *1,355 165 *6,106 3 74 na na na na na 20p 240p *2,9 p-*7,556p10 17 24 NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. Nov.

* STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. 1/ Weekly averages from daily data through Tuesday (Wednesday data are not yet available).

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC NOVEMBER 12, 1976 TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per cent)

90-Day (2)

Short-Term 90-119 Day Commercial Paper 1-Year (4) (3)

7.70 5.13

6.68 5.02

7.31 5.46

5.58 4.70

5.53 4.73

6.32 5.06

Treasury Bills Federal Funds (1)

Period

1975--High Low 1976--High Low

7.75 5.38

9.80 8.89

9.71 9.06

9.95 8.78

9.10 7.93

5.90 5.00

5.63 4.75

5.75 4.88

8.95 8.15

8.94 8.20

9.20 8.67

8.45 7.89

6.35 5.78 5.88

6.08 5.69 5.65

6.45 6.03 5.83

9.45 9.20 9.36

9.43 9.26 9.21

9.80 9.80 9.31

8.87 8.50 8.56

5.15 5.13 5.25

4.91 4.84 5.05

5.03 5.06 5.20

8.70 8.63 8.62

8.79 8.63 8.61

9.10 9.06 9.05

8.37 8.29 8.30

5.54 5.98 6.12

5.08 5.44 5.83

4.81 5.25 5.55

4.94 5.38 5.68

8.48 8.82 8.72

8.52 8.77 8.73

8.89 9.09 9.13

8.10 8.33 8.35

5.54 5.35 5.33

5.30 5.23 5.11

5.42 5.31 5.24

8.63 8.52 8.29

8.63 8.50 8.33

9.05 8.99 8.88

8.37 8.30 8.10

4.90

5.04

8.26

8.24

5.10 5.13 5.13 5.10 5.10

5.22 5.25 5.30 5.20 5.23

8.38 8.28 8.28 8.23 8.29

8.38 8.35 8.30 8.29 8.29

5.10 4.88 4.83 4.80

5.20 5.00 4.91 5.05

8.26 8.15 8.28 8.29

8.23 8.20 8.25 8.27

8.80

8.06 7.96 7.89 8.02

4.85 na

5.03 na

-8.31p

8.23 27 8. p

Mar. Apr. May June

4.82 5.29 5.48

4.86 5.20 5.41

July Aug. Sept.

5.31

5.23

5.82

5.29

5.14

5.64

5.25

5.08

5.50

Oct.

5.03

4.92

5.19

8 15 22 29 6 13 20 27

5.17 5.02 4.97 4.99

5.07 4.94 4.82 4.89

5.39 5.18 5.06 5.18

3 10 17 24

5.06 4.98

4.87 4.87

5.16 5.16

5.00 5.08

5.03 5.07

4.79 4.92

5.07 5.18

5.00 5.13

GNMA uaranteed Securities (12)

7.88 5.25

Dec.

Daily--Nov.

FNMA Auction Yield (11)

8.43 5.38

1976-Jan. Feb.

Nov.

Long-Term U.S. Govt. 20Yr. Constant Maturity) (10)

90-Day (6)

Nov.

Oct.

_Municipal Aaa Utility Bond Recently New Buyer Issue Offered (9) (7) (8)

60-Day (5)

1975--Oct.

1976--Sept.

CD's New Issue-NYC

8.70

7.70 7.76p

NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 8 and 9 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 12 is a 1-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FRA/VA ceiling.

APPENDIX TABLE l-A

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES S

BANK RESERVES Y

NOV. 12,

1976

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

BANK CREDIT MEASURES Total

Period

Total

Adi.

on borrowed

ontary Base

Credit proxy

6.7 7.1 -0.4

6.0 9.2 1.3

7.7 9.2 5.8

1 0.5 10.2 3.9

1SI HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975

-1.2 0.3

1.7 0.9

5.6 5.7

4.5 3.1

1ST HALF 1976

-1.2

6.7

Loans

and investments

4 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

ANNUALLY 1973 1974 1975

13.8

6.0

8.8 6.8 11.3

11.6 10.6 6.4

10.6 9.0 9.7

11.1 8.9 10.0

11.9 8.9 9.7

4.2 4.5

5.6 2.6

9.8 6.8

11.9 10.1

6.9 5.7

9.9 9.2

9.5 10.0

9.4 9.5

3.1

4.9

5.7

10.3

11.8

5.9

8.9

8.3

9.3

8.4 4.6 7.1 5.0

9.2 4.4

SEMI-ANNUALLY:

8.6

QUARTERLY: 1975

1.4

4.5

7.3

7.0

4.6

1.6

7.0

1ST QTR. 1976 2ND QTR. 1976 3RD QTR. 1976

-6.2 3.9 0.3

-5.3 3.1 1.0

4.6 8.8 5.4

1.2 4.9 0.9

5.5 4.3 7.0

4.5 6.8 4.1

11.0 9.3 10.3

12.3 11.0 13.1

47H QTR. 1975

0.6

2.7

5.6

6.0

2.3

6.4

9.4

1ST QTR. 1976 2ND QTR. 1976 3RD QTR. 1976

-3.8 0.8 3.0

-3.2 0.5 3.0

5.3 8.5 6.0

2.3 2.4 3.8

3.8 5.4 5.9

2.7 8.4 4.1

9.7 10.8 9.2

-6.3 9.7 0.8

0.8 14.3 -1.6

3.6 11.1 7.0

5.9 14.4 0.7

6.4 9.8 -2.3

-0.8 9.0 -3.2

-8.4 -6.9 -0.8 1.1 1.5 6.6 1.6 6.0 -4.4 3.5

2.6 4.0 7.0 12.2 7.0 6.9 5.2 6.5 4.5 7.1

-0.7 3.5 0.9 3.0

3.5 5.9 6.9 5.4 5.4 2.1 6.9 8.2 5.9 12.2

1.2 6.1 6.1 14.9 6.8 -1.2 6.7 5.9 -0.4 14.5

4TH QTR.

11.3

8.1 9.4 9.7

7.4 9.0 8.4

7.4 9.5 8.3

6.7

9.4

9.9

11.2 12.0 11.6

5.4 6.6 5.9

8.4 9.3 9.4

8.5 8.7 8.5

5.3 11.5 4.0

8.7 11.9 7.1

7.9 11.7 5.3

9.9

10.3 14.3 8.9

10.1

10.3 14.1 8.3

11.6 14.4 10.5 14.4

3.2 6.6 3.8

6.9 7.9 7.4 11.0 6.2 9.7 10.0 5.7 9.3 13.5

6.9 7,8 7.5 11.2 6.9 10.2 10.1 5.5 9.2 13.2

10.0

QUARTERLY-AVt

MONTHLY: 1975-OCT. NOV. DEC.

-10.2

1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. P

-6.8

-1.7 0.7 4.0 7.0 1.8 4.8 -5.7 4.6

1/ P -

16.3 3.0 -2.5 2.3 12.1

14 .4

8.5 4.8 11.9 9.2 9.5 15.9

Ui a U U ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT RELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. PRELIMINARY i

NOTES:

-4.6

10.5

7.7 13.0 12.7 13.3 16.4

10.3

2.7 8.2 9.0 0.3 5.7 14.0

12.1

7.7 7.0 9.5 7.7 11.8 6.6 9.7 11.1 7.1 10.7

15.2

I a aI TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD

TO BANK-

14.3

9.1

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

NOV.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BANK RESERVES

BANK CREDIT MEASURES

Period Total 1

Nonborrowed

Monetary Base

Adl Credit proxy

12,

1976

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

Total Loans and Investments

ANNUALLY: 32,390 34,693 34,539

31,092 33,966 34,409

96,051 104,892 110,910

449.4 495.3 514.4

637.7 695.2 725.5

270.5 283.1 294.8

571.4 612.4 664.3

919.5 981.6 1092.9

634.9 702.2 747.2

982.9 1071.4 1175.8

1093.7 1191.0 1310.3

1132.0 1232.7 1351.9

1975-OCT. NOV. DEC.

34,239 34,515 34,539

34,048 34,455 34,409

109,279 110s287 110,930

508.0 514.1 514.4

721.0 726.9 725.5

293.4 295.6 294.8

655.8 662.1 664.3

1075.8 1086.5 1092.9

736.7 743.9 747.2

1156.6 1168.3 1175.8

1285.3 1300.6 1310.3

1325.9 1341.7 1351.9

1976-JAN. FEB. MAR.

34,245 34,052 34,003

34,167 33,971 33,949

1119171 111,538 112,192

514.1 515.6 516.0

727.6 731.2 735.4

295.1 296.6 298.1

670.0 677.9 682.6

1103.5 1116.7 1126.5

749.2 753.3 755.7

1182.7 1192.1 1199.7

1317.8 1326.5 1334.7

1359.7 1368.5 1377.0

APR. MAY JUNE

34,024 34,136 34,335

33,980 34,022 34,209

113,333 113,994 114,653

517.3 515.3 522.3

738.7 742.0 743.3

301.8 303.5 303.2

690.8 695.7 698.5

1140.0 1150.0 1157.4

762.2 763.9 769.1

1211.5 1218.2 1228.0

1346.9 1353.9 1364.8

1389.8 1397.6 1409.7

JULY AUG. SEPT.

34,387 34,524 34,360

34,254 34,424 34,298

115,151 115,770 116,201

523.6 522.5 523.5

747.6 752.7 756.4

304.9 306.4 306.3

705.4 710.8 716.4

1169.9 1182.3 1195.4

774.9 775.1 778.8

1239.4 1246.7 1257.8

1376.2 1382.7 1393.4

1421.6 1428.1 1439.0

34,492

34,398

116,888

528.8

764.1

310.0

725.9

1211.7

787.9

1273.7

1409.1

1454.8

8 15 22 29

34,278 34,467 34,045 34,599

349233 34,406 34,001 34,512

115,785 116,289 115,987 116,688

521.5 524.1 524.6 522.6

304.4 309.1 305.9 304.8

712.7 718.7 716.8 716.6

775.1 780.7 779.1 779.4

6 13

34,570 34,033

34,469 33,986

116,959 116,344

528.9 527.1

310.0 310.8

723.8 725.7

786.5 788.1

20 27P

34,766 34,369

349718 34,249

117,159 116,688

529.2 529.6

308.7 310.4

724.4 727.7

786.3 789.0

34,914

34,712

117,609

532.1

310.6

729.3

790.6

1973 1974 1975

MONTHLY:

OCT.

WEEKLY:

1976-SEPT.

OCT.

NOV.

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, Mb, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUDATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. TION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY

NOTES:

NOV.

12,

1976

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period

SSavings Demand Deposits

Currenc

epi Currency 2

Time and Savings Deposits Other Than CDs

Total

TTotal 3

ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975

8.1 10.2 8.7

5.3 3.0 2.6

16.2 15.0 7.9

CD's

MutualShortTer Credit Bank & Union S&L Shares

SharesV Other Savings 8 7 6 5 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

11.4 9.4 12.2

2.8 7.0 17.8

18.7 11.2 8.2

S h o r t T e r Commercial U.S.Gov't oaer-I Securities aper

Sa Vinds

Bon

Ut 12

8.5 5.6 15.8

13.8 12.1 20.2

4.9 4.8 6.2

31.3 11.9 19.5

39.3 9.1 -0.5

-12.7 -2.9

15.2 15.2

20.9 17.6

5.7

6.5

6.7 31.3

5.7 -6.5

-9.7

14.0

16.6

6.3

0.3

15.9

45.6 41.4 -7.7

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF 2ND HALF

1975 1975

9.4 7.6

4.4 0.9

7.8

13.4 10.4

18.2 16.0

10.0 6.1

IST HALF

1976

10,6

4.2

6.0

13.9

23.6

6.6

12.9

11.6

15.8

6.2

19.2

12.5

17.6

6.0

41.3

-46.8 -14.2 -46.5

14.3 13.2 17.6

16.8 16.1 16.6

6.5

-3.6 4.2 -14.2

QUARTERLY: 11.9

4TH QTR.

1975

9.4

-1.1

IST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR.

1976 1976 1976

10.9 10.0 7.7

2.5 5.8 2.8

4.6 7.3 5.7

16.0 11.3 15.0

32.4 13.6 19.0

3.6 9.5 11.7

1975

8.4

0.2

9.7

9.8

14.4

6.6

9.5

14.0

16.5

6.1

23.5

-1.0

1ST QTR. 1976 2ND QTR. 1976 3RD QTR. 1976

9.8 11.7 7.3

0.5 7.4 2.8

7.2 5.3 7.1

15.3 12.5 13.2

28.3

5.6

21.7 13.4

5.1 12.7

-29.3 -30.6 -26.2

13.4 13.8 15.4

17.1 16.4 15.7

6.6 5.9 7.5

12.3 0.0

9.7 17.1 14.6

10.7

11.7

13.6 10.1

14.6

20.5

10.0 12.8 1.7

27.3 13.4 16.1

13.5 12.4 11.3

18.8 14.8 18.3

7.3 5.4 5.4

17.2 20.5 9.8 14.0 10.2 9.5 15.5

26.9 44.6 23.3 22.1 18.3 0.0 11.4 21.9 22.8 29.4

10.3 2.3 -1.7 8.0 3.4 16.9 18.9 3.8 12.0 5.9

-53.6 -57.6 -35.0 -27.9 -55.4 42.2 -17.0 -89.7 -37.3 -7.7

13.4 14.7 14.2 14.1 13.3 11.7 14.5 18.8 18.8 17.1

18.0 10.7 21.1 13.8 13.7 20.3 10.0 19.8 19.5 12.8

7.1 7.1 5.3 5.3 7.0 5.2 8.7 10.3 3.4 5.1

5.9 7.5

7.7 23.6 6.2

QUARTERLY-AV: 4TH QTR.

-6.0

MONTHLY: 1975-OCT. NOV. DEC.

10.0 13.2 4.9

-4.3

7.1 -5.9

13.7 13.5 11.0

1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. P

8.1 12.9 11.2 15.9 9.4 4.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 10.6

-0.5 3.8 4.3 15.1 5.3 -3.2 6.4 5.3 -3.2 15.8

4.5 6.9 2.4 7.3 0.0 14.3 10.6 -3.3 9.7 13.7

If P -

___________________

12.0

16.9 17.0 __

GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY.

DERIVED

BY AVERAGING

END OF CURRENT

21.6 63.8 34.9 3.6 -19.6 5.4 0.0 0.0 12.6

-7.1 -25.1 -11.0 -9.2 1

MONTH AND END OF

3.0 17.8 14.6 8.7 5.7 8.6 17.0 25.1 27.3 13.4 0.0 5.3 2.6

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

NOV. 12, 1976

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Currency Demand

Period

Deposits

Time and Saings Deposits

Mutuaj

Tim. and Savings Deposits

Other Thn CD's

Total

____Total

Savings

& S&L

Union

Term

Savings

SharesY

Other

svins Credit

Bank

Total

Short-

U.S.

Com-

Non.

mercial Deposit

Total

Gov't

unds

Demand

Sec

Gov't

Paper

ANNUALLY: 173.6 I 193.1

63.5 89.8 82.9

323.5 341.6 395.5

24.7 27.7 33.3

60.4 63.3 67.2

50.3 56.3 67.3

38.3 41.8 41.6

7.3 5.6 7.6

387.8 391.8

209.0

80.9 81.8 82.9

32.4 32.8 33.3

66.6 66.9 67.2

62.1 65.4 67.3

40.5 41.1 41.6

8.6 9.6 7.6

164.1 170.2 173.5

210.8 211.2 210.9

79.2 75.4 73.2

399.9

33.8 34.1 34.7

67.6 68.0 68.3

67.5 66.4 66.7

41.9 42.1

8.0 10.9 10.9

388.9 392.2 395.3

176.7 179.4 179.4

212.3 212.9 215.9

71.5 68.2 70.6

414.4

419.0 423.1

35.1 35.5 36.1

68.6 69.0 69.3

66.7 66.7 67.4

43.0 43.9 44.9

7.Z 7.4 9.8

468.7 472.5

400.4 404.4 410.1

181.1 184.4 187.9

219.3 220.0 222.2

69.6 64.4 62.4

428.2 434.9 441.7

36.4 37.0 37.6

69.8 70.4 70.6

67.0 65.6 65.0

45.4 45.4 45.6

9.0 13.8 13.1

230.2

477.9

415.9

192.5

223.3

62.0

448.0

38.0

70.9

64.5

45.7

14.0

79.0 79.0 79.2 79.3

225.4 230.0 226.7 225.6

470.7

408.3 409.7 410.9 411.7

186.8 187.5 188.2 189.1

221.5 222.1 222.7 222.6

62.4 62.0 62.2 62.9

16.0 10.0 1,.7

6 13 20 27P

79.9 79.7 79.6 79.5

230.1 231.1 229.0 230.9

476.5 477.3 477.7 478.6

413.8 414.9 415.7 417.3

191.0 192.0 192.4 193.5

222.8 222.9 223.3 223.8

62.7 62.4 62.0 61.4

13.0 13.8 15.6 14.2

79.9

230.6

480.0

418.7

194.5

224.2

61.3

14.9

73.7

209.0 215.3 221.0

364.4 419.1 452.4

300.9 329.3 369.6

127.3 136.2 160.5

72.6 73.4 73.7

220.8 222.1 221.0

443.3

448.3 452.4

362.4 366.5 369.6

155.9 157.8 160.5

206.5 208.7

1976-JAN. FEB. MAR.

74.2 75.7

220.9 221.6 222.4

454.1 456.7 457.6

374.9 381.3 384.4

APR. MAY JUNE

76.7 77.3 77.6

225.2 226.2 225.6

460.4

JULY AUG. SEPT.

78.1 78.6 79.1

226.8 227.8 227.2

470.0

79.8

8 15 22 29

61.5

1973 1974 1975

67.8

209.0

MONTHLY 1975-OCT. NOV.

DEC.

OCT.

75.0

460.4 465.9

395.5

404.8

409.6

42.4

WEEKLY: 1976-SEPT.

OCT.

NOV.

1/ 2/ P -

471.7 473.1 474.6

ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS A1 MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY

AND

END OF

HONTH REPORTED DATA.

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1976, November 15). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19761116

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19761116,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1976},
  month = {Nov},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19761116},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}