bluebooks · January 17, 1977

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

January 14, 1977

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS I

(FR)

January 14, 1977

- FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Recent developments (1)

M1 expanded at an 8.1 per cent annual rate in December,

after remaining unchanged in November.

For the December-January period

growth is estimated at about a 7-1/4 per cent annual rate--somewhat above the Committee's operating range.

Savings deposits at commercial

banks have continued to expand at a very rapid pace in December and early January, but inflows of M2-type time deposits have slowed considerably. Consequently, for the two-month period M 2 is expected to grow at around an 11 per cent annual rate, near the mid-point of the Committee's range. Deposit flows at nonbank thrift institutions accelerated somewhat in December from their November pace.

Nonborrowed reserves appear to be

rising at about a 10 per cent annual rate over the December-January period, reflecting strong bank demands for excess reserves in recent statement weeks as well as the pick-up in growth of demand deposits. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over December-January period (SAAR in per cent) Ranges M1 M2

Memorandum: Federal funds rate (Per cent per annum)

to 6

9 to 13

Latest Estimates 7.2 11.1

Avg. for statement week ending 4.63 Dec. 22 4.66 29 Jan. 5 4.47 12 4.55

-2(2)

Throughout most of the intermeeting period, incoming data

suggested that growth in M1 and M 2 over the December-January period would be within their respective two-month ranges, and the Desk continued to seek a Federal funds rate of around 4-5/8 per cent.

While data available

in the past few days suggested that M1 growth for the period may be somewhat above its range, M

growth remained near the mid-point of its range,

and the Desk--with the FOMC meeting only a few days away--decided to continue aiming for a funds rate of around 4-5/8 per cent. (3)

Interest rates were generally stable in the last half of

December, but in early January there were substantial upward rate pressures, especially on intermediate-term Treasury coupon issues.

The

continued stability of the funds rate at a time when many market participants had expected this rate to decline further appears to have contributed somewhat to the backup in market rates.

Rate increases were intensified

by press reports regarding possible fiscal stimulus and Federal deficits, by indications that the pace of economic activity has picked up in recent months, and by more rapid M1 growth than anticipated.

On balance, since

the last FOMC meeting, rates in short-term markets have advanced 10 to 30 basis points; yields on intermediate Treasury issues have increased as much as 60 basis points; and interest rates on long-term corporate and Treasury bonds have risen 10 to 25 basis points. (4)

Short-term business credit demands increased modestly in

December as a rise in commercial paper issuance was nearly offset by

-3decline in business loans at commercial banks.

Activity in the capital

markets was light over much of the intermeeting period reflecting the normal holiday lull.

Most recently, however, the volume of corporate

and municipal issues brought to market has increased sharply and the forward calendar has built up substantially, apparently reflecting the decision of borrowers to take advantage of the relatively low yields prevailing in bond markets.

The Treasury has raised $3.8 billion of new

money since the December meeting, and is expected to borrow much more heavily in the four weeks following the January meeting. (5)

The table on the following page shows (in terms of per-

centage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods.

Past Six Months Dec. '76 over June '76

Past Three Months Dec. '76 over Sept. '76

Past Month Dec. '76 over Nov. '76

1.7

4.7

8.3

7.0

-1.9

1.5

4.2

8.2

6.3

5.3

7.0

8.4

7.8

M 1 (currency plus demand deposits ) 1/

4.1

5.8

5.7

7.3

8.1

M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's)

8.5

11.3

11.7

12.9

12.3

11.3

13.1

13.6

13.7

12.7

M 2 plus CD's)

6.4

7.5

8.9

12.6

14.2

M5 (M3 plus CD's)

9.7

10.6

11.7

13.5

13.6

Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.)

3.9

4.8

6.5

12.0

10.8

Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/

4.4

6.3

7.5

7.9

1.9

Large CD's

-.6

-1.6

-1.1

1.7

Nonbank commercial paper

-.2

-.1

Calendar Year

1975

1976

Nonborrowed reserves

-0.2

Total reserves Monetary Base Concepts of Money

M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) M4

Bank Credit

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions)

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective Developments (6)

Three alternative sets of longer-run ranges for the

monetary aggregates applicable to the one year QIV '76-QIV '77 period are shown below. place

Alternative B continues the same ranges currently in

except for the bank credit proxy for which the range is higher

than the present 5-8 per cent.

The relationship of the proposed ranges to

shorter-run specifications and longer-run interest rate and monetary developments is discussed in ensuing paragraphs.

(End-point levels for

M1 and M 2 implied by current and proposed longer-run ranges are compared in appendix I). Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

5½-7½

4½-6½

3½-5½

8½-11

7½-10

6½-9

10-12½

9-11

7½-10

8-11

7½-10½

6½-9½

Bank credit proxy (7)

Shorter-run specifications for monetary aggregates

and the Federal funds rate consistent with the longer-run ranges are summarized below.

More detailed short-run and longer-run data are shown

in the tables on pp. 5a and 5b.1/ Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Ranges for January-February M1

4-8

3½-7½

3-7

8-12

7½-11½

7-11

Federal funds rate (Intermeeting period) 1/

3¾-4½

4¼-5

4¾-5½

Appendix II includes estimates of 6-month growth rates in nonborrowed reserves--and related measures--believed consistent with the alternative longer-run growth rates in the monetary aggregates.

-5aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1976 December 1977 January February

311.9 313.5 315.0

311.9 313.5 314.8

311.9 313.5 314.6

739.5 745.5 751.7

739.5 745.5 751.2

739.5 745.5 750.7

1236.3 1248.3 1260.5

1236.3 1248.3 1259.9

1236.3 1248.3 1259.3

1976 QIII

305.9 310.5

710.9 732.4

1182.5 1223.8

315.2 320.7

315.0 320.0 323.9 327.6

314.8 319.1 322.1 324.4

752.1 772.8 790.8 808.2

751.5 769.7 784.9 798.3

750.9 767.1 778.6 788.4

1261.0 1299.6 1332.9 1363.9

1260.2 1295.1 1323.9 1348.7

1259.5 1290.6 1313.1 1331.1

QIV 1977 QI QII QIII QIV

325.7

330.8

Growth Rates Monthly: 6.2 5.7

6.2 5.0

1976 QIV

6.0

12.1

1977 QI QII QIII QIV

6.1 7.0 6.2 6.3

5.8 6.3 4.9 4.6

5.5 5.5 3.8 2.9

10.8 11.0 9.3 8.8

10.4

Semi-annual QIV '76-QII '77 QII '77-QIV '77

6.6 6.3

6.1 4.8

5.5 3.3

Annual QIII '76-QIV '77 QIII '76-QIII '77 QIV '76-QIV '77

6.5 6.5 6.5

5.7 5.9 5.5

4.8 5.3 4.5

1977 January February

9.7 10.0

11.6 11.7

11.6 11.2

11.6 10.6

12.1

14.0

7.9 6.8

10.1 8.6 6.0 5.0

12.2 12.2 10.2 9.3

11.9 11.1 8.9 7.5

11.7 9.9 7.0 5.5

11.0 9.2

10.2 7.4

9.5 5.6

12.4 9.9

11.7 8.3

10.9 6.3

10.9 11.2 10.3

9.8 10.4 9.0

8.7 9.5

12.3 12.7 11.4

11.2 12.0 10.2

10.1 11.0

Quarterly Average:

9.7

7.6

8.8

-5bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates

(cont'd) Credit Proxy

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1976 December 1977 January February

803.4 809.6 815.2

803.4 809.6 814.7

803.4 809.6 814.3

1300.1 1312.4 1324.0

1300.1 1312.4 1323.4

1300.1 1312.4 1322.9

539.2 542.3 545.2

539.2 542.3 544.8

539.2

1976 QIII

776.3 795.1

1247.9 1286.4

523.2 534.1

523.2 534,1

815.4 834.5 852.7 871.1

815.1 832.7

814.7 830.8 845.0 858.0

1324.2 1361.4 1394.8 1426.8

1323.8 1358.2 1388.2 1415.4

1323.2 1354.3 1379.5 1400.7

545.5 558.6 573.4 584.6

545.4 557.8 571.7 581.5

545.1 556.7 569.5 577.6

9.3 7.0

11.4 10.6

11.4 10.1

11.4 9.6

6.9 6.4

6.9 5.5

6.9 4.9

9,7

12.3

8.3

8.5 9.1 10.0 6.9

8.2 8.5 9.2 5.7

QIV 1977 QI QII QIII QIV

849.2

864.9

542.3

544.5

Growth Rates

Monthly: 1977 January February

9.3 8.3

Quarterly Averages:

9.7

1976 QIV 1977 QI QII QII QIII

QIV

10.2 9.4 8.7 8.6

10.1 8.6 7.9 7.4

9.9 7.9 6.8 6.2

11.8 11.2 9.8 9.2

11.6 10.4

11.4 9.4

8.8 7.8

6.1

8.5 9.6 10.6 7.8

9.9 8.8

9.5 7.7

9.0 6.5

11.7

11.2

9.6

8.4

10.6 6.9

9.2 9.3

8.9 8.5

8.5 7.5

9.8 9.8 9.6

9.1 9,4

8,4 8.8 7.9

11.5 11.8 10.9

10.7 11.2 10.0

9.8 10,5 8.9

9.4 9.6 9.5

8.9 9.3 8.9

8.3 8.8 8.1

7.4

Semi-annual

QIV '76-QII '77

QII '77-QIV '77 Annual QII '76-QIV '77 QIII '76-QIII '77

QIV '76-QIV '77

8.8

(8)

Under alternative B, with a Federal funds rate centered

within a 4¼-5 per cent range, we would expect M1 to grow in a 3 -7 cent annual rate range over the January-February period.

per

This represents

a slightly higher 2-month range than has been presented in recent blue books, and reflects the pick-up in M1 growth that has occurred during the past few weeks as well as the stronger demand for money expected to be associated with the projected acceleration in growth of nominal GNP in the first quarter. (9) 7 -11

Growth in M2 over the January-February period may be in a

per cent annual rate range under alternative B.

The time and

savings deposit component of M 2 is expected to grow less than in the fourth quarter, largely because banks have become less aggressive in seeking out time deposit funds.

Offering rates reportedly have been cut,

and longer-term certificates are apparently not being offered by some banks. (10)

Interest rates might show little further change between

now and the next Committee meeting if the funds rate remains around 4-5/8 per cent, although some further rate increase would not be surprising in view of market conditions.

Demands by corporations and state and

local governments on bond markets are expected to be quite heavy, as a large number of new issues have been accelerated to take advantage of current relatively low yield levels.

Treasury cash needs in the first

quarter are large--probably about $24 billion.

The Treasury may raise

about $4-5 billion of new cash in connection with the mid-February-

refunding, to be announced on January 26.

Perhaps the chief factor that

could cause market rates to rise somewhat over the next few weeks, however, would be the effect on market expectations of any further evidence of a

strengthening in the economy, monetary aggregates, and fiscal stimulus. (11)

To maintain growth in monetary aggregates over the

QIV '76-QIV '77 period within the longer-run ranges proposed under

alternative B, the staff expects that the Federal funds rate would have to begin rising by early spring, and would reach a 1977 peak of around 6½ per cent in the fourth quarter of the year.

The rise in short-term

rates more generally that would be associated with such an increase in the funds rate would tend to curb the growth in time and savings deposits at banks and thrift institutions.

As a result growth in M2 and M3 is

expected to slow progressively as the year goes on.

At the same time

banks would probably begin to offer CD's more aggressively to accommodate credit demands generated by the projected substantial expansion in GNP. Bank credit expansion in 1977 is likely to be considerably more rapid than in 1976, when banks permitted outstanding CD's to drop sharply. (12)

Growth in M1also is expected to be slower in the second

half of the year than in the first half, partly reflecting the cumulative impact on money demand of a gradual tightening in money market conditions. In addition, growth in the first half is likely to be raised relative to the second half as a result of the particular fiscal stimulus being proposed.

We have assumed that $10 billion of tax rebates and one-time

social security payments would be made during the spring, which would enlarge growth in M1, as well as M2 and M3, in that period.

Tax refunds

in late winter and early spring are expected to be larger than last year and could also have a transitory impact on M1.

(13)

Alternative A encompasses a reduction in the Federal

funds rate to the mid-point of a 3-4

per cent range over the next

Under this assumption, M1 and M 2 over the January-February

few weeks.

period would be expected to grow at annual rates of 4-8 and 8-12 per cent respectively.

Interest rates would be expected to decline over

the next few weeks, but reductions maybe limited, particularly in long-term markets.

Expectations that interest rates would soon rise

might develop as the market observes faster growth in the aggregates and

as the pace of economic expansion picks up. (14)

Over the longer-run, under alternative A, we would not

expect a very substantial rise in interest rates to develop, however, since the higher longer-run growth in the monetary aggregates embodied in that alternative would be more accommodative of money and credit demands.

The funds rate would probably have to rise under this alterna-

tive, given the projected strength of the economy, but perhaps to no more than an average level of around 5¼ per cent by the fourth quarter of the year. (15)

Alternative C involves a tightening of the Federal funds

rate over the next few weeks to the mid-point of a

4¾

-5½

per cent range.

Over the January-February period M1 growth may be in a 3-7 per cent range--a step toward attaining the lower longer-run ranges for the

monetary aggregates proposed for this alternative.

The staff would

expect that further pressures would have to be applied to the money market as the year progresses if

growth in M1 over the QIV '76-QIV

'77

period is to be constrained to around the mid-point of the 3½-5½ per

cent alternative C range.

The funds rate might reach about 7¼ per cent

by the fourth quarter. (16)

An increase in the funds rate over the next few weeks

by about ½ percentage point would probably cause the 3-month bill rate to rise into a 5-5¼ per cent range.

And rate increases in the intermediate-

term Treasury coupon market could be substantial, since dealer coupon positions remain fairly sizable and because of the large amount of cash that may be raised in this area in connection with the forthcoming Treasury refunding.

Corporate and municipal bond yields would also be

likely to rise, but postponements of issues recently scheduled to take advantage of lower rates could moderate the increase.

-10Proposed directive (17)

Presented below are four alternative formulations for the

operational paragraph of the directive.

The first three are couched in

terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead and are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. in

The fourth alternative is proposed

the event that the Committee again wishes to formulate its

instructions

in terms of money market conditions and to maintain the conditions now prevailing. Alternative "Monetary Aggregates" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: maintain prevailing]ACHIEVE bank reserve and money market conditions CONSISTENT WITH SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES over the period [DEL: immediately] ahead[DEL:, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the rates currently

expected].

Alternative B To implement this policy,

while taking account of developments

in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to[DEL: maintain prevailing] ACHIEVE bank reserve and money market conditions CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES over the period [DEL: immediately]ahead [DEL: , provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the

ratescurrently

expected].

-11Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to[DEL: maintain prevailing]ACHIEVE bank reserve and money market conditions CONSISTENT WITH MODEST GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES over the period [DEL: immediately]ahead, [DEL: provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the rates currently expected].

"Money Market" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to maintain prevailing bank reserve and money market conditions over the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the rates currently expected.

Appendix I

Comparison of Levels of M1 and M2 Under Current and Proposed Longer-run Ranges ($ billion) M1

Quarters

Level Based on Growth From QIII '76 at a 5¼ Per Cent Rate

QIII '77

322.8

325.7

323.9

322.1

QIV '77

327.2

330.8

327.6

324.4

Terminal

Levels based on longer-run growth from QIV '76 at rates assumed in: Alt. C Alt. B Alt. A

M2 Growth From QIII at an 8¾ Per Cent Rate QIII '77

773.1

790.8

784.9

778.6

QIV '77

790.0

808.2

798.3

788.4

NOTE:

The last three columns assume that growth around the mid-points of the proposed ranges is achieved and are the same numbers as shown in the table on p. 5a. The above tabulation indicates that the proposed alternative B

implies levels of M1 in the latter half of 1977 little different from those implicit in the current longer-run range based on the third quarter of 1976. in

the first

Because of the more rapid growth in M1 now expected

half of 1977,

the third quarter 1977 level under alternative

B is slightly higher (.3 of a per cent),

but the fourth quarter level is

virtually the same. For M2, however, the proposed alternative B implies substantially higher levels in the latter half of 1977 than are implied by the mid-point

I-2 of the current growth range based on QIII '76.

By the third quarter,

M 2 would be about 1½ per cent, and by the fourth quarter about 1 per cent, higher under proposed alternative B.

The levels of alternative C

are considerably closer to the previously implied mid-point levels.

Appendix II

Expansion in Reserves Over the Period From QIV '76 to QII '77 Consistent With Proposed Alternatives (Seas. adj. annual rates) Alt. A

Alt. B

Nonborrowed Reserves

7.8

6.5

Total Reserves

7.8

Monetary Base

8.3

Alt.

Appendix III Projected Federal Funds Rate

1977

QI QII QiII QIV

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

5t 6k

Appendix IV

Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate)

3.6

7.4

7.3

9.2

8.4

10.3

10.1

6.4

9.9

8.2

9.8

8.5

III

1.8

5.5

6.3

7.9

6.1

7.8

5.1

10.5

9.0

9.9

8.4

QIV '72-QIV '73

6.0

6.2

8.8

9.0

1974

5.3

6.0

9.0

9.6

8.4

8.9

5.3

5.6

6.9

7.4

5.7

6.5

III

3.0

4.2

5.5

6.4

5.2

5.6

4.7

4.0

6.6

6.4

7.2

6.5

QIV '73-QIV '74

4.7

5.0

7.2

7.7

6.8

7.1

1.4

0.6

6.9

5.6

9.0

7.5

9.7

7.4

12.5

10.2

14.5

12.6

III

3.6

7.1

6.5

10.1

10.7

13.3

1.6

2.3

7.0

6.4

9.3

QIV '74-QIV '75

4.1

4.4

8.5

8.3

11.3

11.1

1976

4.5

2.7

11.0

9.7

12.3

11.2

6.8

8.4

9.3

10.8

11.0

12.0

III

4.1

10.3

9.2

13.1

11.6

7.3

6.0

12.9

12.1

13.7

14.0

QIV '75-QIV '76

5.8

5.4

11.3

10.9

13.1

12.8

1973

1975

9.4

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters.

1 MONETARY AGGREGATES CHART

NARROW M ON EY SUPPLY M 1

1/14/77

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

ER MONEY SUPPLY M 2

700

growth

680

660

640 1975

1976

1977

I N 1976

I D

I F

J 1977

CHART 2

1/14/77

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS S550

-530

-510

, _,J,

__,I

RESERVES

500

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - 37

- 35 TOTAL

NONBORROWED

___I____i 1975

I 1976

Ia 1977

Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adusted to remove discontiruities associated with changes in reserve requirement rat7os.

1/14/77

CHART 3

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

PERCENT

INTEREST RATES Short-term

PERCENT

INTEREST RATES L WEEKLY

WEEKLY AVERAGES

- 7

FHA MORTGAGI FNMA MONDAY AU

Aaa

-- 8

NEW

IUNT RATE

PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER

-6 MONTH 7

L3-MONTH

EURO-DOLLARS

DS RATE'

GOVT. B( 10-YEAR A'

RESERVES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

MUNICIPAL BOND BU THURSDAYS

TREASURY BILLS 3-MONTH WED 4

-1

1975

1976

1977

1975

1976

1977

1975

1976

1977

Table 1

MONETARY AGGREGATES

JAN.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC

1977

14,

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply p Narrow Broad (Ml) (M2)

Period

MONTHLY

Total U.S. Govt. Deposits

Total

309.8 309.8 311.9 (313.5)

725. 732.0 739.5 (745.5)

528.6 534.4 539.2 (542.3)

Nondeposit

Time and Savings Deposits

Adjusted ABank Credit Proxy

Other Than CD'S Total Savngs Other 6

416.0 422.2 427.6 (432.0)

192.6 196.8 201.4 (205.1)

C CD

Member

Sources of U.S. Govt. Funds Deposits

9.0 9.1 9.2 6.6)

3.4 4.5 3.2 2.4)

LEVELS-SBIL

1976--OCT. NOV. DEC. 1977-JAN.

(

13.9 13.5 10.1 9.1)

478.0 484.2 491.5 (496.0)

223.5 225.4 226.2 (226.9)

(

62.0 62.1 63.8 64.1)

(

2 ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976-2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

6.8 4.1 7.3

9.3 10.3 12.9

4.9 0.9 12.0

7.3 5.7 16.1

11.3 15.0 17.1

13.6 19.0 28.7

9.5 11.7 7.2

-14.2 -46.5 9.0

8.4 4.1 6.0

10.8 9.2 12.1

2.4 3.8 8.3

5.3 7.1 12.1

12.5 13.2 16.7

21.7 13.4 26.9

5.1 12.7 8.2

-30.6 -26.2 -17.7

(

17.3 17.9 15.3 12.3)

(

30.0 26.2 28.0 22.0)

(

7.0 10.2 4.3 3.7)

(

-7.7 1.9 32.9 5.6)

(

13.9)

(

25.3)

(

4.0)

19.3)

QUARTERLY-AV 1976-2ND OTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. MONTHLY 1976-OCT. NOV. DEC. 1977-JAN. DEC.-JAN.

(

13.7 0.0 8.1 6.2)

(

7.)

(

15.7 10.3 12.3 9.71

11.1)

(

11.7 13.2 10.8 6.9)

(

14.0 15.6 18.1 11.0)

8.9)

(

14.6)

WEEKLY LEVELS-$BIL 1976-DEC.

15 22 29

310.2 311.3 311.1 312.3 312.3

735.0 737.6 739.0 740.5 740.2

537.1 538.2 539.1 540.8 538.2

11.8 8.9 8.7 11.2 10.7

487.6 489.5 491.3 492.0 492,8

424.9 426.4 427.9 428.2 427.9

198.3 199.9 201.0 202.1 202.2

226.6 226.4 226.9 226.1 225.7

62.8 63.1 63.4 63.7 64.9

9.4 b.9 8.9 9.9 9.0

3.5 4.0 4.3 3.8 2.1

314.3

744.3

543.3

10.2

495.3

430.1

202.9

227.2

65.3

8.9

1.9

JAN.

NOTEt

DATA

SHOWN

PARENTHESES

ARE

CURRENT

PROJECTIONS.

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 2

JAN.

14,

1977

BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period

MONTHLY

REQUIRED RESERVES

Total Reserves

Nonborrowed Reserves

Monetary Base

Total Required

Private Demand

Total Time Deposits

Gov't. and Interbank

33,877 34,283 34,483 (34,BS3)

116,375 117.361 118,128 (119,150)

33,751 34,097 34,235 (349624)

20,131 20,336 20,242 (20,563)

11,696 11,749 11,924 (12,162)

3.9 0.2 8.2

3.0 1.0 8.3

8.8 5.4 8.4

4.0 0.4 7.0

6.0 4.0 1.8

-1.0 -6.4 9.3

0.7 3.0 4.4

0.4 3.0 4.7

8.5 6.0 7.3

1.1 2.7 3.9

4.2 3.6 2.9

-4.4 -0.8 -0.9

(

4.5 13.6 6.3 12.2)

3.3 14.4 7.0 12.91

(

7.1 10.2 7.8 10.41

(

3.8 12.3 4.9 13.6)

(

-1.3 12.2 -5.5 19.0)

(

4.4 5.4 17.9 24.0)

(

9.3)

10.0)

9.1)

(

6.7)

21.1)

LEVELS-$MILLIONS

1976--OCT. NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN.

33,971 34,355 34,536 (34,887)

(

1,925 2,013 2,069 1,899)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH OTR. QUARTERLY-AV 1976--2NO QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. MONTHLY 1976--OC0. NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. DEC.-JAN.

9.3)

WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS

NOTEt

1976-DEC.

1 8 15 22 29

34,763 34,084 34,756 34,383 34,757

34,676 34,058 34,687 34,346 34,675

118,069 117,358 118,397 117,964 118,552

34,379 33,959 34,289 34,312 34,310

20,333 19,872 20,385 20,387 20,267

11,806 11,859 11,906 11.935 11,993

2,240 2,228 1,998 1,991 2,050

1977-JAN.

5 12

34,995 34.736

34,963 34.717

119,001 118.966

34,403 34,277

20,395 20,494

11,996 12.124

2,012 1,660

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

REQUIREMENT

RATIO.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC January 14, 1977

TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted)

Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Treasury Bills Net Change 2/

Period

Within 1-year -i---

1 -

-490 7,232 1,280 -468 863

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

5 - 10

Over 10

Total

789 579 797 3,284 3,025

539 500 434 1,510 1,048

167 129 196 1,070 642

1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187

Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Within 1-vear

Over 1 - 5

5 - 10

592 400 1,665 824 469

141

Total

Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/-

Net RP's 6/

1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891

1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227

-1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607

284

2,626

-1,403

535 240

1,022 3,371 436

1,256 1,654 392 304

1975--Qtr.

1,294

385

234

315

1,006

1976--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr.

I II III IV

-363 2,067 45 -886

.15 09 .71 77

554 796 881 794

226 245 345 232

156 134 160 192

1,052 1,284 1,557 1,294

-2,000 1,100 954

42 .29

301 580

72 272

65 95

480 1,077

-2,040 1,484 1,954

-2,334 2,093 633

418 -733 -570

18 59

113 681

62 170

73 119

266 1,029

409 -377 403

-1,742 -3,930 5,976

-199 ----535 ----

3,597 -4,105 -588 3,462

1976--July Aug, Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1976--Nov.

Dec.

3 10

--- -200 -535 92 54

S S

1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/

------------

-492

-- ----

--- --- --- --- 1,249 43

537

465 -45 --

-234 757

-242

-122

-84

-35

91 171

115

266 -

439

73 -

62 -

41 --

113 --

--- 1,398

18 -

-------

-518 -1,025

42 1977--Jan.

--- --

115

-292 -

-1,033

-267

-6,290 3,102 3,384 2,882 3,254 -6,349

-1,231

Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Exclude redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

6/ Note:

On January 12, the System's outright holdings of securities totalled $100.1 billion, including $38.4 billion of Treasury bills, $54.7 billion of Treasury notes and bonds, and $6.8 billion of Agency issues. In addition, the System had a net RP position of 91.9 billion.

TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars)

U. S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Bills

1975--High Low

Coupon Issues

Underwriting Syndicate Positions Corporate Municipal Bonds Bonds

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JANUARY 14, 1977

Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit Excess** 8 New York 38 Others Total Seasonal Reserves

(1)

(2)

(8)

7,029

2,845 253

-7,387 -1,757

-11,632 - 7,207

1,586

(9)

1976--High Low

8,896

*3,046 175

343 34

655 -180

242 24

-8,161

3,668

-2,367

-12,744 - 6,908

1975--Dec.

4,822

1,075

103

265

130

-2,811

-10,418

1976--Jan. Feb.

Mar.

4,959 5,214 5,910

1,220 1,051 778

97 181 151

232 256 223

79 81 54

-3,581 -4,138 -4,726

- 9,746 -10,015 - 9,640

Apr. May June

5,750 4,239 4,996

605 591 582

133 199 196

155 210 214

43 114 127

-5,179 -4,402 -4,219

-10,783 - 8,151 - 9,158

July Aug. Sept.

5,743 6,174 7,838

904 1,686 1,509

211 116 172

234 207 205

132 100 63

-4,756 -4,624

- 9,399 - 9,691 - 9,716

Oct. Nov.

6,271 6,876 *8,005

1,832 2,418 *2,443

258 217 167

221 257 311p

3 10 17 24

6,106 7,818 6.894 6,480

1,355 2,904 2,417 2,441

253 343 176 97

461

1 8 15 22 29

6,402 7,927 8,896

2,359

384 125

Dec. 1976--Nov.

Dec.

1977--Jan.

5 12 19 26

*7,815 *8,179

1,932 *2,068 *3,046

122 144 226 201 143

*7,123 *7,141

*3,017 *2,680

188 196p

2,611

94 72 53 p 202 51 54 44

-5,703 -6,428 -6,289 -7,168 -5,730

-10,527

-11,618 -11,449

-8,030

-10,276 -12,664

-7,059 -5,479

-11,665

87 26 69 37 82 p

-5,146 -6,873 -7,908 -7,726 -6,407

-10,845 -12,362 -12,349 -11,729 -10,050

592p 468p

32p 20p

- ,781p -8,885p

22 434

120

467

71 44 7

-11,985

-10,537p 2 6 -1 ,31 p

NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. *

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

TABLE 5

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC JANUARY 14, 1977

SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent) Long-term

Short-term Federal Funds

(1)

Treaury Bills

90-119 Day

Commercial Paper

-Day

1-Year

(2)

(3)

(4)

(FR)

CD's New Issue-NY 60-Day

Aaa Utility

90-Day

(5)

(

New Issue

Recently Offered

() 76)

(8)

Municipal Bond Buyer

(9)

FNMA

GNMA

Yr. Constant Maturity

Auction Yield

Guaranteed Securities

(10)

(11)

(12)

U.S. Govt.

20-

1975--H1gh Low

7.70 5.13

6.68 5.02

7.31 5.46

7.88 5.25

7.75 5.38

9.80 8.89

9.71 9.06

7.67 6.27

8.63 7.63

9.10 7.93

1976--High Low

5.58 4.63

5.53 4.27

6.32 4.62

5.63 4.40

5.75 4.50

8.95 7.93

8.94 7.85

7.13 5.83

8.17 7.26

8.45 7.57

1975--Dec.

5.20

5.44

6.16

5.65

5.83

9.36

9.21

7.31

8.23

8.56

1976--Jan. Feb. Mar.

4.87 4.77 4.84

4.87 4.88 5.00

5.44 5.53 5.82

4.91 4.84 5.05

5.03 5.06 5.20

8.70 8.63 8.62

8.79 8.63 8.61

7.07 6.94 6.92

8.01 8.03 7.97

8.37 8.29 8.30

4.82 5,29 5.48

4.86 5.20 5.41

5.54 5.98 6.12

4.81 5.25 5.55

4.94 5.38 5.68

8,48 8.82 8.72

8.52 8.77 8.73

6.60 6.87 6.87

7.86 8.13

8.10 8.33 8.35

5.23 5.14 5.08

5.82 5.64 5.50

5.30 5.23 5.11

5.42 5.31 5.24

8.63 8.52 8.29

8.63 8.50 8.33

6.79 6.61 6.51

8.00

Aug. Sept.

5.31 5.29 5.25

7.78

8.37 8.30 8.10

Oct. Nov. Dec.

5.03 4,95 4.65

4.92 4.75 4.35

5.19 5.00 4.64

4.90 4.84 4.48

5.04 4.94 4.50

8.25 8.17 7.94

8.24 8.18 7.93

6.30 6.29 5.94

7.70 7.64 7.31

7.98 7.93 7.59

5.06 4.98 5.02 4.90

4.87 4.87 4.87 4.67

5.16 5.16 5.12 4.89

4.85

5.03

8.23

6.34

4.95 4.95 4.63

5.06 5.05 4.63

8.31 8.24 8.05

8.28 8.18 8.04

6.39 6.26 6.16

7.70 7.76 7.66 7.51

8.02 8.02 8.02 7.84

4.78 4.67 4.68 4.63 4.66

4.46 4.40 4.37 4.27 4.33

4.68 4.65 4.66 4.62 4.62

4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50

7.95 7.93 7.95

7.39 7.32 7.34 7.28 7.23r

7.75 7.62 7.60 7.57 7.57

5 12 19 26

4.47 4.55

4.41 4.58

4.67 4.89

4.50 4.70

7.90 8.05p

7.26 7.51p

7.56 7.92

4.59 4.59p

4.50 4.52

4.75 4.87

July

1976--Nov.

3 10 17

24 Dec.

1 8 15 22

1977--Jan.

Daily--Jan.

4.48 4.65

7.95 8.02p

5.78 5.89

8.03 7.91

7.28

7.51(1/12)

NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 8 and 9 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 12 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling.

APPENDIX TABLE 1-A

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES BANK RESERVES /

BANK REERVEMEASURES

BANK CREDIT

JAN.

14,

1977

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

Total Period Totl

Nonbore borrowd a I

Monetary M

ay Base

Adi.

Loans

redit

and

proxy I

Investments

7.1 -1.9 1.5

9.2 -0.2

9.2 5.3 7.0

10.2 3.9 4.8

9.2 4.4 6.3

4.7 4.1 5.8

7.2 8.5 11.3

6.8 11.3 13.1

10.6 6.4 7.5

2ND HALF 1Q75

-2.6

-2.1

4.8

3.1

4.5

2.6

6.8

10.1

5.7

1ST HALF 1976 2NQ HALF 1976

-1.2 4.2

-1.2 4.7

6.7 7.0

3.1 6.5

4.9 7.5

5.7 5.7

10.3 11.7

11.8 13.6

5.9 8.9

8.9 11.7

-6.3 3.9 0.2 8.2

-5.4 3.0 1.0 8.3

4.6 5.4 8.4

1.2 4.9 0.9 12.0

5.5 4.3 7.0 7.9

4.5 6.8 4.1 7.3

11.0 9.3 10.3 12.9

12.3 11.0 13.1 13.7

4.6 7.1 5.0 12.6

8.1 9.4 9.7 13.5

8.3 9.5 9.0 12.1

-3.8 0.7 3.0 4.4

-3.2 0.4 3.0 4.7

5.4 8.5 6.0 7.3

2.3 2.4 3.8 8.3

3.8 5.4 5.9 8.7

2.7 8.4 4.1 6.0

9.7 10.8 9.2 12.1

11.2 12.0 11.6 14.0

5.4 6.6 5.9 9.7

8.4 9.3 9.4 12.3

9.0 9.3 9.3 10.8

0.6

-1.6

7.0

0.7

-2.3

-3.2

4.0

7.1

5.3

7.7

8.8

9.6

-10.Z

-8.4 -7.0 -0.8 1.1 1.3 6.6 1.7 5.7 -4.4 3.3 14.4 7,0

2.7 4.0 7.1 12.2 7.0 6.9 5.3 6.4 4.5 7.1 10.2 7.8

-0.7 3.5 9.9 3.0 -4.6 16.3 3.0 -2.5 2.3

3.5 5.9 6.9 5.4 5.4 2.1 6.9 8.2 5.9 12.2 9.4 1.9

1.2 6.1 6.1 14.9 6.8

10.3 14.1 8.3 14.4 8.5 4.8 11.9 9.2 9.5 15.7 10.3 12.3

11.6 14.4 10.5 14.4 10.5 7.7 13.0

3.2 6.6 3.8 10.3 2.7 8.2 9.0 0.3 5.7 14.0 9.3 14.2

7.0 9.5 7.7 11.8 6.6 9.7 11.1 7.1

7.4 9.2 8.0 11.6 6.9 9.8 12.0 6.3 8.4 13.6 10.1 12.3

7.5 9.0 8.1 11.9 7.8 10.7 12.3 6.2 8.2 13.4 10.4 12.7

4 5 6 (Per cent annual rate of growth)

ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976

1.7

9.0 9.7 10.6

8.8 10.7 10.1

9.0 10.6 10.3

9.Z

10.1

10.6

9.0 10.7

10.8

SENI-ANNUALLYt

9.4

QUARTERLY: 1ST Q7R. 1976

2ND OTR.

1976

3RD QTR. 1976 4TH QTR. 1976

8.8

8.3 10.2

9.0 12.3

QUARTERLY-AVy 1ST QTR.

1976

2NQ

1976

QTR.

3RQ QTR. 1976 4TH QTR. 1976

9.3 9.8 9.7 10.8

MONTHLYI 1975-*OEC. 19T6--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT.

-6.9 -1.8 0.8 3.8 7.0 2.0 4.6 -5.8 4.5 13.6 6.3

OCT. NOV. DEC. P

11.7 13.2 10.8

-1.2

6.7 5.9 -0.4

13.7 0.0 8.1

12.7 13.2

16.5 11.6 12.7

10.6

15.3 11.1 13.6

w NOTES:

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

JAN.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

Period

ITotal

Non Nonborrowed

Monetary Monetary Base

Adj. Credit proxy

34,693 34,034 34,536

33(966 33,904 34,483

104,892 110,425 118,128

495.3 514.4 539.2

1975--DEC.

34,034

33,904

110,425

1976--JAN. FEB. MAR.

33,745 33.551 33,502

33,667 33,470 33,448

.33,523 33,629 33,826

JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. P

Total

1977

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

CREDIT MEASURES

,BANK

BANK RESERVES Y

14,

Loans and Investments 5

695.2 725.5 771.3

283.1 294.8 311.9

612.4 664.3 739.5

981.6 1092.9 1236.3

702.2 747.2 803.4

1071.4 1175.8 1300.1

1181.6 1308.7 1440.3

1222.2 1351.4 1490.8

514.4

725.5

294.8

664.3

1092.9

747.2

1175.8

1308.7

1351.4

110,671 111,037 111t691

514.1 515.6 516.0

727.6 731.2 735.4

295.1 296.6 298.1

670.0 677.9 682.6

1103.5 1116.7 1126.5

749.2 753.3 755.7

1182.7 1192.1 1199.7

1316.8 1326.9 1335.7

1359.9 1370.1 1379.3

33,478 33,515 33,699

112,831 113,487 114,143

517.3 515.3 522.3

738.7 742.0 743.3

301.8 303.5 303.2

690.8 695.7 698.5

1140.0 1150.0 1157.4

762.2 763.9 769.1

1211.5 1218.2 1228.0

1348.6 1356.3 1367.4

1393.0 1402.1 1414.6

33,881 34,010 33,845

33,748 33,909 33,784

114,644 115,255 115,686

523.6 522.5 523.5

747.6 752.7 756.4

304.9 306.4 306.3

705.4 710.8 716.4

1169.9 1182.3 1195.3

774.9 775.1 778.8

1239.4 1246.7 1257.7

1381.1 1388.3 1398.0

1429.1 1436.5 1446.3

33,971 34,355 34,536

33,877 34.283 34,483

1169375 117.361 118,128

528.6 534.4 539.2

764.1 770.1 771.3

309.8 309.8 311.9

725.8 732.0 739.5

1211.7 1223.4 1236.3

787.9 794.0 803.4

1273.7 1285.5 1300.1

1413.8 1425.7 1440.3

1462.5 1475.2 1490.8

10 17 24

33,903 34,705 34,087

33,853 34,651 34,043

116,697 117,657 117,209

531.7 535.0 534.4

310.5 310.8 307.6

731.1 732.5 731.0

792.6 794.5 793.4

1 8 15 22 29P

34,763 34,084 34,756 34,383 34,757

34,676 34,058 34,687 34,346 34,675

118,069 117,358 118,397 117,964 118,552

537.1 538.2 539.1 540.8 538.2

310.2 311.3 311.1 312.3 312.3

735.0 737.6 739.0 740.5 740.2

797.8 800.7 802.4 804.2 805.1

34,995

34,963

119,001

543.3

314.3

744.3

809.6

I ANNUALLY 1974 1975 1976

MONTHLY:

APR. MAY JUNE

WEEKLYt

1976-NOV.

DEC.

1977-JAN.

NOTESI

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD 10 BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS, M6, MT, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 8ASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS.

14, 1977

JAN.

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits Period

CurrencyDemand

Savings

DepstTotal 1

ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976

CD'

Other Than CD's

10.2 8.7 9.5

3.0 2.6 4.6

15.0 7.9 8.6

7.6

0.9

1976 1976

10.6 8.0

4.2 5.0

1SI QTR. 1976 1976 2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. 1976 4TH qTR. 1976

10.9 10.0 7.7 8.1

Mutual ndBank avings &

8 7 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 7.0 17.8 25.5

11.2 8.2 8.2

7.8

10.4

16.0

6.0 11.0

13.9 16.3

23.6 24.5

2.5 5.8 2.8 7.0

4.6 7.3 5.7 16.1

16.0 11.3 15.0 17.1

32.4 13.6 19.0 28.7

9.8 11.7 7.3 8.7

0.5 7.4 2.8 5.1

7.2 5.3 7.1 12.1

15.3 12.5 13.2 16.7

4.9

-5.9

11.0

8.1 12.9 11.2 15.9 9.4 4.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 10.6 7.5 6.0

-0.5 3.8 4.3 15.1 5.3 -3.2 6.4 5.3 -3.2 14.6 -2.6 8.9

4.5 6.9 2.4 7.3 0.0 14.3 10.6 -3.3 9.7 14.0 15.6 18.1

Sainds

Short Ter

Commercial

Shares-

Other

9.4 12.2 15.7

Credit Union

41.4 -7.7 -23.0

5.6 15.8 15.8

12.1 20.2 17.4

4.8 6.3 6.7

J.0 39.5 4.1

16.8 5.7 18.3

6.1

-2.9

15.2

17.6

6.4

51.7

5.3

6.6 9.5

-29.7 -19.3

14.0 16.5

16.8 16.6

6.2 6.9

13.1 -4.6

21.1 14.0

3.6 9.5 11.7 7.2

-46.8 -14.2 -46.5 9.0

14.3 13.2 17.6 14.7

16.8 16.1 16.6 16.0

5.9 6.4 8.1 5.6

12.8 13.0 -2.3 -6.9

8.4 33.0 9.3 18.9

28.3 21.7 13.4 26.9

5.6 5.1 12.7 8.2

-29.3 -30.6 -26.2 -17.7

13.4 13.8 15.4 16.6

17.1 16.4 15.7 18.4

6.6 5.9 7.5 6.8

22.7 13.1 10.4 -13.0

17.3 23.1 21.0 11.6

10.1

20.5

1.7

16.1

11.3

18.3

7.2

31.9

34.7

17.2 20.5 9.8 14.0 10.2 9.5 15.5 12.0 16.9 17.3 17.9 15.3

26.9 44.6 23.3 22.1 18.3 0.0 11.4 21.9 22.8 30.0 26.2 28.0

10.3 2.3 -1.7 8.0 3.4 16.9 18.9 3.8 12.0 7.0 10.2 4.3

-53.6 -57.6 -35.0 -27.9 -55.4 42.2 -17.0 -89.7 -37.3 -7.7 1.9 32.9

13.4 14.7 14.2 14.1 13.3 11.7 14.5 18.8 18.8 17.1 13.4 13.0

18.0 10.7 21.1 13.8 13.7 20.3 10.0 19.8 19.5 19.1 15.7 12.4

5.3 7.1 5.3 5.3 7.0 7.0 5.2 10.3 8.5 5.1 6.8 5.0

14.6 5.4 18.0 12.4 10.5 15.6 34.3 -10.0 -30.3 -10.3 -3.5 -7.0

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1975

2ND HALF 1ST HALF 2ND HALF QUARTERLY:

QUARTERLY-AV: 1ST 2N0 3RD 4TH

OTR. OTR. OTR. OTR.

1976 1976 1976 1976

MONTHLY 1975-DEC. 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT, OCT. NOV. DEC. P I/ P -

GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY.

END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF

11.2 5.6 8.3 22.0 37.8 36.1 20.3 5.0 2.5 9.9 19.7 24.2

JAN. 14, 1977

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits Deposi

Total

Other Than CD's

ITotal

ISavings

CD's

Other

Com-

on-

onds

Gov't Sec /

Paper

Funds

Demand Depo

27.7 33.3 39.1

63.3 67.3 71.8

47.1 65.7 68.4

40.4 42.7 50.5

5.6 7.6 10*1

& S&L Shares Shares _

67.8 73.7 80.7

215.3

419.1 452.4 491.5

329.3 369.6 427.6

136.2 160.5 201.4

193.1 209.0 226.2

89.8

221.0 231.2

63.8

341.6 395.5 457.9

1975-DEC.

73.7

221.0

452.4

369.6

160.5

209.0

82.9

395.5

33.3

67.3

65.7

42.7

7.6

1976-JAN. FEB. MAR.

74.2 75.0 75.7

220.9

454.1 456.7 457.6

374.9 381.3 384.4

164.1 170.2 173.5

210.8 211.2 210.9

79.2 75.4

399.9 404.8

33.8 34.1

73.2

409.6

34.7

67.6 68.0 68.3

66.5 66.8 67.8

43.1 43.3 43.6

8.0 10.9 10.9

176.7 179.4 179.4

212.3 212.9 215.9

71.5 68.2

414.4 419.0 423.1

35.1 35.5 36.1

68.6 69.0 69.4

68.5 69.1 70.0

44.4 45.8 47.2

7.2 7.4 9.b

69.6

428.2 434.9 441.7

36.4 37.0

69.7 70.3 70.8

72.0 71.4 69.6

48.0 48.2 48.3

9.0 13.8 13.1

448.0

38.2

453.0 457.9

38.7 39.1

71.1 71.5 71.8

69.0 68.8 68.4

48.7 49.5

13.9 13.5 10.1

s Credit

Sav

ANNUALLYt 1974 1975 1976

82.9

MONTHLYt

221.6 222.4

APR. MAY JUNE

76.7

77.3 77.6

225.2 226.2 225.6

460.4 460.4 465.9

388.9 392.2 395.3

JULY AUG. SEPT.

78.1 78.6 79.1

226.8 227.8 227.2

470.0 468.7 472.5

400.4 404.4 410.1

181.1 184.4 187.9

219.3 220.0

OCT. NOV. DEC. P

79.8 80.3 80.7

230.0

416.0 422.2 427.6

192.6 196.8 201.4

223.5 225.4 226.2

62.0 62.1

231.2

478.0 484.2 491.5

10 17 24

80.3

80.2 80.3

230.2 230.7 227.3

482.1 483.7 485.8

420.6 421.6 423.4

196.0 196.7 197.6

224.6 225.0 225.8

61.5 62.0 62.4

15.4 14.2 2.2

1 8 15 22 29P

80.3 80.6 80.8 80.7 80.8

229.9 230.7 230.4 231.5 231.5

487.6

198.3 199.9 201.0 202.1 202.2

226.6 226.4 226.9 226.1 225.7

62.8

491.3 492.0 492.8

424.9 426.4 427.9 428.2 427.9

64.9

11.8 8.9 8.7 11.2 10.7

80.9

233.3

495.3

430.1

202.9

227.2

65.3

10.2

229.5

222.2

70.6

64.4 62.4

63.8

37.6

SO-S.

WEEKLYt 1976-NOV.

DEC.

1977-JAN.

1/ 2/ P -

489.5

63.1 63.4 63.7

.aS*S*. . . ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY

a .~

END OF

aMONTH REPORTED DATA.

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1977, January 17). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770118

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19770118,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1977},
  month = {Jan},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770118},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}