bluebooks · February 14, 1977

Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

February 11, 1977

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

February 11,

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC

1977

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Recent developments (1)

M1 and M 2 appear to be expanding at annual rates of around

4-1/2 and 8-1/2 per cent, respectively, over the January-February period, in both cases just below the mid-point of the Committee's operating range. The recent reduction in offering rates at some banks and thrift institutions on time and savings accounts, in combination with the rise in market interest rates, seems to have had the expected moderating impact on growth of the time and savings deposit component of the broader monetary aggregates. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over January-February period 1/ (SAAR in per cent)

Ranges

Latest Estimates

3 to 7 7 to 11 Memorandum: Federal funds rate (Per cent per annum)

Avg. for statement week ending Jan. 19 4.65 26 4.72 Feb. 2 4.60 4.66 9

These figures do not incorporate the quarterly benchmark and seasonal factor revisions of monetary aggregates that will be published on February 17. The benchmark revisions (based on the June call report) are quite small. The level of M1 for each month of last year was revised up no more than $300 million. The monthly levels of M2 were adjusted up by even smaller amounts. The effects of changes in seasonal factors on M1 and M 2 levels were also generally quite small. The net impact of the revisions raised growth rates of M1 and M2 for 1976 by less than .1 percentage point. All tables on subsequent pages of this report (with the exception of Tables 1 and 2, following the charts) are based on the new series. The new and old series are compared in Appendix IV.

-2(2)

Immediately following the January FOMC meeting the Desk

aimed for a Federal funds rate in the 4-5/8--4-3/4 per cent area in accordance with the Committee's instructions.

This objective has been maintained

throughout the intermeeting period, as incoming data have suggested M1 and M 2 growth well within their respective two-month ranges.

With negotiable

CD's declining since year end and demand deposits falling in late January, nonborrowed reserves are expected to decrease in February after increasing rapidly in January.1 / (3)

Since the mid-January FOMC meeting, interest rates on

Treasury securities, especially coupon issues, have fluctuated within a relatively wide range.

Interest rates rose in late January following announce-

ment of the terms of the Treasury's mid-February financing package and likely cash needs over the balance of the first quarter.

Subsequently,

with the funds rate remaining near 4-5/8 per cent and growth in the monetary aggregates slowing, interest rates declined.

Interest rates generally

showed little change, on balance, over the intermeeting period, but most interest rates remained significantly above their December lows. (4)

Credit demands have generally remained strong recently.

Public offerings of corporate bonds were substantial in January despite some postponements and cancellations in response to higher interest rates. State and local governments have issued new securities at a rapid pace so

The recent behavior of nonborrowed reserves is compared with estimates of 6-month growth rates in nonborrowed reserves, and related measures, believed consistent with longer-run growth ranges for the aggregates in appendix I.

-3far in 1977.

On the other hand, the pace of business borrowing in short-term

markets appears to have slackened somewhat over the past two months. (5)

The Federal government has borrowed appreciable amounts

of new cash since the January FOMC meeting, raising $2.8 billion through a late January sale of 2-year notes and $3.7 billion in connection with its mid-February refunding.

In the refunding the Treasury auctioned $3.0

billion of 3-year notes at an average rate of 6.62 per cent, $2.0 billion of 7-year notes at an average rate of 7.25 per cent, and $750 million of 30-year bonds at an average rate of 7.63 per cent.

Most recently, the

two notes have been trading at prices above their auction averages, and dealers have made reasonable progress in distributing their awards of these issues.

The bond has been trading slightly below its average issuing

price; dealers still hold most of the relatively sizable awards they received of this issue.

Past

1975 & 1976

Six Months

Past Three Mon t h.

Jan. '77 over July '76

Jan. '77 over Oct. '76

Past Mnnth

Jan. '77 over Dec. '76

Nonborrowed reserves

1.5

5.6

9.7

8.5

Total reserves

0.5

5.3

9.4

9.0

Monetary Base

6.4

7.7

9.3

10.0

5.0

5.7

4.6

5.8

M 2 (Ml plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's)

10.0

11.4

10.8

9.4

M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions)

12.3

13.5

12.1

10.7

M4 (M2 plus CD's)

7.0

8.9

10.4

8.4

M 5 (M3 plus CD's)

10.2

11.8

11.7

10.0

Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.)

4.4

6.8

8.8

4.2

Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/

5.4

7.9

6.9

9.0

- 1.1

- 1.0

0.3

- 0.2

0.0

0.4

Concepts of Money M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/

Bank Credit

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper

1/ Other than interbank and U. S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks,commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (6)

Summarized below are alternative short-run specifications

for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate.

(More detailed

short-run and longer-run data are shown in the tables on pp. 5a and 5b).

Each of the alternatives is believed to be consistent with growth ranges for the monetary aggregates over the QIV '76-QIV '77 period adopted by the Committee at its previous meeting.

The differing patterns of

Federal funds rates and velocity implied by the three alternatives-given the projected growth in nominal GNP--are shown in appendices II and III, respectively.

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

2½-6½

Ranges for February-March

3½-7½

3-7

7½-11½

7-11

6½-10½

3¾-4½

4¼-5

4¾-5½

Federal funds rate (intermeeting period)

(7) Growth in M1 over the February-March period is expected to be in a 3-7 per cent annual rate range, assuming a Federal funds rate centered in a 4¼-5 per cent range, as in alternative B. The rate of expansion that is anticipated for M 1 reflects in part the retardation in economic activity caused by the recent cold snap and associated fuel shortage. (8) M 2 expansion under alternative B may be in a 7-11 per cent annual rate range over the February-March period.

Time and savings

deposits other than large CD's are likely to continue rising at close

-5aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1

1977

1976

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

January February March

313.7 314.9 316.6

313.7 314.9 316.4

313.7 314.9 316.1

745.5 750.7 757.1

745.5 750.7 756.5

745.5 750.7 755.9

1247.9 1258.3 1270.2

1247.9 1269.3

1247.9 1258.3 1268.5

QIII

306.0 310.8

710.7 732.5

1181.7 1223.9

315.1 321,8 325.1 327.9

315.0 321.3 324.7 327.9

314.9 320.8 324.2 327.9

751.1 771.9 786.4 798.0

750.9 770.3 784.9 797.8

750.7 768.7 782.9 798.0

1258.8 1295.6 1324.0 1356.1

1258.5 1293.1 1321.6 1345.8

1258.2 1290.3 1318.0 1346.9

4.6 4.6

8.4 10.2

8.4 9.3

8.4 8.3

10.0 11.3

10.0 10.5

10.0 9.7

12.3

14.3

QIV 1977

QI QII

QIII QIV

1258.3

Growth Rates Monthly: 1977

February March

4.6 6.5

Quarterly Average: 1976

QIV

6.3

12.3

1977

QI QII

QIII QIV

5.5 8.5 4.1 3.4

5.4 8.0 4.2 3.9

5.3 7.5 4.2 4.6

10.2 11.1 7.5 5.9

10.0 10.3 7.6 6.6

9.9 9.6 7.4 7.7

11.4 11.7 8.8 6.7

11.3 11.0 8.8 7.3

11.2 10.2 8.6 8.8

Semi-annual QIV '76-QII '77 QII '77-QIV '77

7.1 3.8

6.8 4.1

6.4 4.4

10.8 6.8

10.3 7.1

9.9 7.6

11.7 7.8

11.3 8.2

10.9 8.8

Annual QIV '76-QIV '77

5.5

8.9

10.0

FOMC longer-run range QIII '76-QIV '77

4k-6

7-10

8k-11%

-5bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

January February March

808.6 813.9 819.8

808.6 813.9 819.3

808.6 813.9 818.8

1311.0 1321.5 1332.8

1311.0 1321.5 1332.1

1311.0 1321.5 1331.4

540.7 542.1 546.5

540.7 542.1 546.3

540.7 542.1 546.0

1976

QIII QIV

776.4 795.2

1247.4 1286.5

523.2 533.9

1977

QI QII

814.1 833.7 848.7

813.9 832.6 847.7 862.7

813.8 831.5 846.4 862.4

1321.8 1357.4 1386.2 1411.0

1321.5 1355.5 1384.3 1410.8

1321.3 1353.1 1381.4 1411.3

543.1 557.0 568.9 580.0

543.0 556.4 568.4 579.9

542.9

9.6 9.6

1977

QIII QIV

862.8

555.8 567.7 579.6

Growth Rates Monthly:

7.9 8.0

7.9 7.2

9.6 10.3

9.7

12.5

9.4 9,2 7.3 7.1

9.4 8.7 7.2 7.6

11.0 10.8 8.5 7.2

10.9 10.3

QIV

9.5 9.6 7.2 6.6

Semi-annual QIV '76-QII '77 QII '77-QIV '77

9.7 7.0

9.4 7.2

9.1 7.4

11.0 7.9

10.7 8.2

Annual QIV '76-QIV '77

8.5

1977

February

March

7.9 8.7

9.6 9.0

3.1 9.3

3.1 8.6

8.2

10.8 9.6 8.4 8.7

6.9 10.2 8.5 7.8

6.8 9.9 8.6 8.1

6.7 9.5 8.6 8.4

10.4 8.6

8.7 8.3

8.4 8.4

8.2 8.6

8.6

Quarterly Averages: 1976

QIV

1977

QI QII QIII

9.7

8.5 7.7

9.7

to their reduced January pace, as banks remain less aggressive in offering time deposits over the next few weeks in light of moderate bank credit demands from business and other customers. Also, the rise in yield on intermediate-term Treasury obligations since the beginning of the year has made such securities somewhat more attractive to savers as compared with time certificates of deposit. (9) M1 and M 2 under alternative B may be expected to rise at annual rates of about 5½ and 10 per cent, respectively, in the first quarter.

Growth in these aggregates, especially M1, is likely to

strengthen in the second quarter, as a result of the temporary impact of tax rebates.

M1 growth in the second quarter would be further augmented

by increased money demands associated with the rapid expansion in nominal GNP projected for the spring as the fuel shortage subsides. (10)

A considerably slower growth in monetary aggregates would

be required in the second half of 1977 than in the first half if growth over the year is to be around the mid-points of the longer-run ranges adopted at the previous Committee meeting.

Growth in the aggregates

would probably slow to some extent as a natural reaction to the sharp expansion in money that is likely to accompany rebate payments.

achieve the amount of slowing needed, however, it is very likely that short-term interest rates will have to rise as the year progresses, given the projected expansion in nominal GNP over the year.

Under alternative

B, the staff would expect the Federal funds rate to begin rising in the spring and reach around 6½ per cent by the fourth quarter of this year.

(11)

Interest rates are expected to show little net change over

the next few weeks, though, given the specifications of alternative B. The Treasury will probably raise $7-9 billion of new money between now and the next meeting through routine offerings of 2- and 4-year notes, additions to the weekly and monthly bill auctions, and cash management bills.

Much of this need has probably already been discounted by the

market, but rates on Treasury securities could rise a little in the process of distributing the issues.

The municipal bond volume is expected to

remain at around the advanced January pace over the weeks immediately ahead, but new issues of publicly offered corporate bonds seem to be moderating in reaction to the recent rise in bond yields. (12)

Bank credit is expected to continue expanding at a

moderate pace in the first quarter.

Business loan expansion may be only

a little above the reduced December-January average rate, but banks can be expected to continue to be active lenders in the consumer and mortgage loan markets.

The higher level of yields on intermediate-term Treasury

issues since the beginning of the year may encourage some pick-up in bank buying of such securities.

Banks are expected to obtain sufficient

funds to finance such credit expansion from demand deposits and time deposits other than money market CD's.

The outstanding volume of CD's

will probably continue to decline modestly. (13)

Alternative C contemplates a tightening of the money

market over the next few weeks, with the funds rate rising to the midpoint of a

4¾-5½ per cent range.

Such a rise in the funds rate in the

weeks immediately ahead has probably not been discounted by the market,

and thus a fairly substantial upward adjustment in interest rates could be expected to ensue.

The 3-month bill rate would probably rise to

levels somewhat above 5 per cent.

Yields on intermediate- and longer-term

issues would also increase, though probably by less than the rise in short rates, given increases that have already occurred in longer-term interest rates. (14)

The tightening of the money market and slower near-term

growth in nonborrowed reserves under alternative C would also tend to hold down expansion of the monetary aggregates over the February-March period as compared with alternative B.

It would also be likely to lead

to slower growth in the aggregates over the first half of 1977, assuming that the funds rate were permitted to rise somewhat further in the spring. However, alternative C would require a more rapid growth in the aggregates than alternative B in the second half of 1977 to attain the longer-run, QIV '76-QIV '77 ranges for the aggregates adopted by the FOMC.

Thus,

monetary policy would have to be more accommodative in the latter part of 1977, and the Federal funds rate would not be likely to rise as high as under alternative B.

We estimate that the rate would, as a result,

peak at about 6 per cent in the summer of this year. (15)

The near-term easing of the money market encompassed by

alternative A would, of course, lead to declines in interest rates over the next few weeks and higher growth rates in the monetary aggregates. Most market participants would probably view the drop in the funds rate as temporary, and this would work to limit interest rate declines.

bond markets, for example, corporations would be likely to accelerate offerings of new issues.

-9(16)

With monetary growth rates more rapid over the next

few months than under the alternatives discussed above, alternative A would imply more restraint later in the year if growth in the aggregates is to be constrained within current longer-run ranges.

A funds rate of

around 6¾ per cent is expected by the end of 1977 under this alternative.

-10Proposed directive (17)

Given below is a proposed operational paragraph for the

directive if the Committee wishes to continue formulating its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. No alternatives are presented for this formulation, in the expectation that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the longerterm targets and that at this meeting the Committee will not reconsider those targets. "Monetary Aggregates" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. (18)

Should the Committee desire to place main emphasis on bank

reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought.

Three alternative "money market" direc-

tives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below.

Alternative "Money Market" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks

to achieve SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: consistent

with moderate growth

monetary aggregates]over the period

-11IMMEDIATELY ahead,

PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE

GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: achieve]MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions

[DEL: consistent

with moderate growthin monetary

over aggregates]

the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT FIRMER bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates]over the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

Appendix I Expansion in Reserves Over the Period

From QIV '76 to QII '77 Consistent With Proposed Alternatives (Seas. adj. annual rates) Alt. A

Alt. BB

Alt. C

Nonborrowed Rese rves

6.9

6.2

5.0

Total Reserves

7.6

7.4

7.2

Monetary Base

8.0

7.9

7.8

Growth in both nonborrowed and total reserves from the fourth quarter of 1976 to February of this year is estimated at about a 3 per

cent annual rate, below the longer-run growth rates for reserve aggregates shown in the table above.

The rate of increase in reserves

is expected to accelerate in the spring, however, when required reserves would expand considerably because of a transitory rise in the public's holdings of demand deposits resulting from the proposed tax rebates.

Appendix II

Projected Federal Funds Rate, 1977 Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

QII

QIII

QIv

Appendix III

Implied Velocity Growth Rates

V1 (GNP/M ) 1977

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

3.3

3.5

3.6

4.8

5.3

5.8

III

7.2

7.1

8.3

7.9

7.2

-1.2

-1.0

2.2

3.0

3.7

III

3.8

4.0

6.0

5.1

4.1

V! (GNP/M) 1977

APPENDIX IV

Comparison of Old and Revised Money Stock Growth Rates

M1 Old

Revised

Old

Revised

Old

Revised

1976--January-

1.2

2.0

10.3

10.8

11.6

12.3

February

6.1

14.1

14.4

14.6

March

6.1

5.3

8.3

7.8

10.5

10.0

April

14.9

14.1

14.4

14.2 10.5

14.9

14.4

6.8

8.5

8.9

10.5

June

-1.2

4.8

4.3

7.7

July

6.7

7.1

August

5.9

5.1

September

-0.4

1.2

October

13.7

November

0.0

December

May

7.1

12.0

13.0

12.8

9.2

9.0

12.7

12.5

9.5

10.1

13.2

13.3

15.7

16.5

16.8

0.0

10.3

10.1

11.6

12.3

8.1

12.5

12.6

12.8

13.0

4.6

5.8

8.8

10.5

10.7

4.5

11.0

12.3

12.4

6.8

9.1

11.0

10.7

III

4.1

4.5

10.3

10.5

13.1

13.0

7.3

13.0

13.8

14.2

2.7

2.9

9.9

11.2

11.5

8.4

8.2

10.5

12.0

11.8

III

4.1

4.2

9.2

11.6

11.4

6.0

6.3

12.3

14.0

14.3

1977--January

13.7

11.9

9.4

Quarterly:1976--I

9.3

Quarterly Average: 1976--I

9.7 10.8 9.2 12.2

End-month-of-quarter to end-month-of-quarter

2/11/77

CHART I

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1975

1976

-I

1977

320

r--

N 1976

F 1977

CHART 2

2/11/77

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

1 550 BILLIOPIS OF DOLLARS

530

510

_______________

RVES

500

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -1 37

0 1975

1976

1977

Total and ronborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios

CHART 3

2/11/77

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

PER CENT

INTEREST RATES Short-term

PER CENT 9

INTEREST RATES Long-term

PER CENT

-10

1975 1975

1976

1977

1975

1976

1977

1975

I I I1976I I I I I 1976

I 1977I 1977

Table 1CONFIDENTIAL

(FR)

MONETARY AGGREGATES

FEB.

CLASS 1977II-FOMC 11,

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Money Supply Period

MONTHLY

Broad (M2)

Adjusted Credit Proxy

Total U.S. Govt.

732.0 739.6 745.0 (750.0)

534.4 539.2 541.0 (541.9)

Deposits

Total

Time and Saving Deposits Other Than C'S Other Savins Total

CD'S

196.8 201.4 204.9 (207.01

225.4 226.2 227.0 (228.8)

62.1 63.8 63.7 4 63.2)

Nondeposit Member Sources of U.SBavt Deposits Funds

9.1 9.2 8.3 7.8)

4.5 3.2 2.6 2.3)

LEVELS-SBIL

1976--NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. FEB. t

Narrow (M1)

309.8 311.9 313.1 (314.2)

(

13.5 10.1 10.2 11.9)

484.2 491.5 495.6 (499.01

422.2 427.7 431.9 (435.8)

ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

6.8 4.1 7.3

9.3 10.3 13.0

4.9 0.9 12.0

7.3 5.7 16.1

11.3 15.0 17.2

13.6 19.0 28.7

9.5 11.7 7.2

-14.2 -46.5 9.0

8.4 4.1 6.0

10.8 9.2 12.2

2.4 3.8 8.3

5.3 7.1 12.1

12.5 13.2 16.8

. 21.7 13.4 26.9

5.1 12.7 8.2

-30.6 -26.2 -17.7

(

0.0 8.1 4.6 4.2)

(

10.3 12.5 8.8 8.1)

(

13.2 10.8 4.0 2.0)

15.6 18.1 10.0 8.2)

(

17.9 15.6 11.8 10.8)

(

4.4)

8.4)

3.0)

9.2)

(

11.4)

QUARTER LY-AV 1976-2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. MONTHLY 1976--NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. FEB. JAN.-FEB. MEEKLY

I 1

16.7)

10.2 4.3 4.2 9.5)

(

1.9 32.9 -1.9 -9.4)

(

6.9)

(

-5.6)

LEVELS-SBIL

1977-JAN.

5 12 19 26

FEB.

NOTE& I/ P -

26.2 28.0 20.9 12.3)

315.0 314.9 313.5 311.5

745.4 746.5 745.6 744.5

543.6 542.1 541.1 540.4

10.2 10.6 10.2 10.1

495.6 495.7 495.4 496.1

430.4 431.6 432.1 433.0

203.1 204.7 205.0 205.8

227.4 227.0 227.2 227.3

65.2 64.1 63.3 63.1

9.0 8.0 8.3 8.5

1.9 3.5 3.3 2.8

311.7

744.8

539.7

9.9

496.1

433.1

205.7

227.3

63.0

7.8

1.7

DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL PRELIMINARY

RESERVE

BANKS.

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC FEB. 11, 1977

TABLE 2

BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period

Total Reserves

Nonborrowed Reserves Ee~setflles

REQUIRED RESERVES

Monetary Base

Total Required

Private Demand

Total Time Deposits

Gov't. and Interbank

11,749 11,925 12,068 (12.072)

2,013 2,067 1,810 ( 1,716)

1 MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1976--NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. FEB.

34,355 34,507 34,767 134,528)

34,283 34,454 34,698 (34,469)

34,097 34,233 34,498 (34,299)

117,361 118,097 119,082 1119,221)

20,336 20,242 20,619 (20,511)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

3.9 0.2 7.8

3.0 1.0 7.9

8.8 5.4

0.7 3.0 4.3

13.6 5.3 9.0 -8.2)

6.0 4.0 1.8

-1.0

0.3

4.0 0.4 7.0

0.4 3.0 4.6

8.5 6.0 7.2

1.1 2.7 3.9

4.2 3.6 2.9

-4.4

14.4 6.0 8.5 -7.9)

10.2 7.5 10.0 1.43

12.3 4.8 9.3 -6.9)

12.2 -5.5 22.4 -6.3)

5.7)

1.2)

(

-6.4 9.3

QUARTERLY-AV 1976--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

-0.8 -0.9

MONTHLY 1976--NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. FEB.

JAN .- FEB.

0.41

( (

0.3)

(

8.0)

(

5.4 18.0 14.4 0.4)

7.4)

WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1977-JAN.

FEB.

NOTE:

5 12 19 26

34,923 34,521 34,714

2 9

35,052

34,892 34,501 34 605 349962

118,913 118,762 119,047 119,560

34,410 349117 34,825 34,647

20,398 20515 20,836 20,752

129008 12.062 12.139 12,079

1#005 1,540 1,850 1,816

34,629 34,475

34.542 34,400

119,079 118,572

34,450 349223

20,500 20,321

12,024 12.026

1,926 1,877

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED 10 REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

ASSOCIATED

WITH CHANGES

RESERVE

REQUIREMENT

RATIO.

TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted)

Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Period

Treasury Bills Net Change 2/

Within 1-year

-490 7,232 1,280 -468 863

1 - 5

5 - 10

Over 10

Total

789 579 797 3,284 3,025

539 500 434 1,510 1,048

167 129 196 1,070 642

1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187

1,294

385

234

315

1,006

1976--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr.

I II III IV

-363 2,067 45 -886

115 109 171 77

554 796 881 794

226 245 345 232

156 134 160 192

1,052 1,284 1,557 1,294

1,100 954

42 129

301 580

72 272

65 95

480 1,077

-73

-266

119

1,029

695 266

Oct. Nov. Dec.

418 -733 -570

1977--Jan.

2,222

475

128

-518 -1,025 -234 757 42

113

-71 -45 184 1,098

1976--Dec.

1 8 15 22 29

1977--Jan.

12 19 26 Feb.

LEVEL Feb.

-242

-122

439 --

48 --

475

128

35 --48

2 9 16 23

9 (in billions)

40.4

-84

S 27

10.3

30.9

9.2

Net

Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/

1975--Qtr.

1976--Aug. Sept.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC FEBRUARY 11, 1977

5.0

Within 1-year

1 - 5

5 - 10

Over 10

592 400 1,665 824 469 58

141

Total

1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227

-1,158 -46 -154 1,279 3,607

284

2,626

-1,401

535 240

1,022 3,371 436

1,256 1,654 392 304

1,484 1,954

2,093 633

409 -377

-1,742 -3,930 5,976 -6,877

115 S S

-41

-37

-36

403

2,908

-115

-492

-----

--- --- --- --- -

--- ----

--- --- --

55.4

1,398

--- -

1.4

-292 -

-1,033

-267

1,249 43

465 181 1,772

-7,198

720

-24

1.3

6.8

-6,290 3,102 3,384 2,882 3,54 -6,349 -1,231 -3,305 4,191

-45

3.3

Net RP's 6/

1,059 964 3,082 1,613 891

537 -677

Change Outright Holdings Total 5/

102.7

6,641

2.3

Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Exclude redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC FEBRUARY 11, 1977

TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars)

Bonds

Coupon Issues (2)

Bills 1975--High Low

I) 7,029 1,586

1976--High Low

8,896 3,668

3,046 175

1976--Jan. Feb. Mar.

4,959 5,214 5,910

Apr. May June

Member Bank Reserve Positions Basic Reserve Deficit Borrowing at SRB**

Underwriting Syndicate Positions Municipal Corporate

U. S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions

2,845 253

Excess**

Seasonal

Total

8 New York

Others (a)

Bonds

Reserves

(4) 389 48

(5) 804 -42

(8) -7,387 -1,757

655

-8,161 -2,367

-12,744

-11,632 - 7,207

343 34

1,220 1,051 778

34 66 43

97 181 151

232 256 223

-3,581 -4,138 -4,726

- 9,746

5,570 4,239 4,996

605 591 582

69 95 100

133 199 196

155 210 214

-5,179 -4,402 -4,219

-10,783

July Aug. Sept.

5,743 6,174 7,838

904 1,686 1,509

106 85 95

211 116 172

234 207 205

-4,756

-4,624

- 9,399 - 9,691

-5,703

- 9,716

Oct. Nov. Dec.

6,271 6,876 8,005

1,832 2,418 2,443

94 79 145

258 217 167

221 257 311p

-6,428

-10,527

-6,289 -7,168

-11,618

*6,406

*2,320

202

332p

-6,421

-11,504

1 8 15 22 29

6,402 7,927 8,896 7,815 8,179

2,359 2,611 1.932 2,068 3,046

0 152 266 116 44

384 125 467 71 348

-5,146

-7,726 -6,407

-10,845 -12,362 -12,340 -11,720 -10,050

5 12 19 26

7,123 7,141 *7,234 *5,917

3,017 2,680 *1,958 *2,243

26 59 91 152

513 404

31 20 p 90p

-6,719

- 9,656

-8,742

-12,481 -12,993 -10,913

2 9 16 23

*3,720 *4,371

*1,694 *2,385

87p 75p

-4,382p -5,817p

1977--Jan. 1976--Dec.

1977--Jan.

Feb.

-4

334

-1RO

1 p 252p

-10,15 -

-11,449

-7,0n0

-7,244 -5,490

9,640

- 8,151 - 9,158

-6,873

109

-lllp 405p

70 5 2 p

87 2' 60 37 82

- 6,908

-10,032p -1

, 43p

Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed bv repurchase NOTE: agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserve and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC FEBRUARY 11, 1977

TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES

(per cent)

ort-tera Comercial aper 1-ear 90-119 Day (3) (4)

Long-term Municipal Corp.-Aaa Utility Bond Recently New Buyer Offered Issue (10) (11) (12)

(FR)

Horn1 Mortgage Secodary Market Primary IFMA Auc. GNMA Sec. Cony. (13) (14) (15)

Treasury Bills

CD's Neaw Issue-NYC

Federal Fund (1)

90-Day (2)

60-Day (5)

90-Day (6)

1975--High Low

7.70 5.13

6.68 5.02

7.31 5.46

8.43 5.38

7.88 5.25

7.75 5.38

8.44 6.46

8.50 7.18

8.63 7.63

9.80 8.89

9.71 9.06

9.59 8.80

9.95 8.78

9.10 7.93

1976--High Low

5.58 4.63

5.53 4.27

6.32 4.62

5.90 4.63

5.63 4.40

5.75 4.50

7.52 5.65

7.89 6.33

8.17 7.23

8.95 7.93

8.94 7.84

9.10 8.70

9.20 8.39

8.45 7.57

1976--Jan. Feb. Mar.

4.87 4.77 4.84

4.87 4.88 5.00

5.44 5.53 5.82

5.15 5.13 5.25

4.91 4.84 5.05

5.03 5.06 5.20

6.99 7.06 7.13

7.67 7.77 7.65

8.01 8.03 7.97

9.10 9.06 9.05

8.37 8.29 8.30

Apr. May June

4.86 5.20 5.41 5.23 5.14 5.08

5.54 5.98 6.12 5.82 5.64 5.50

5.08 5.44 5.83 5.54 4.35 5.33

4.81 5.25 5.55 5.30 5.23 5.11

4.94 5.38 5.68

6.84 7.27 7.32

8.89' 9.09 9.13

5.42 5.31 5.24

7.12 6.86 6.66

7.44 7.77 7.76 7.70 7.58 7.41

7.86

July Aug. Sept.

4.82 5.29 5.48 5.31 5.29 5.25

9.05 8.99 8.88

8.10 8.33 8.35 8.37 8.30 8.10

Oct. Nov. Dec.

5.03 4.95 4.65

4.92 4.75 4.35

5.19 5.00 4.64

5.10 4.98 4.66

4.90 4.84 4.48

5.04 4.94 4.50

6.24 6.09 5.68

7.16 6.86 6.37

7.70 7.64 7.30

8.25 8.17 7.94

8.24 8.18 7.93

8.93 8.81 8.79

8.75 8.66 8.45

7.98 7.93 7.59

4.61

4.62

5.00

4.72

4.61

4.68

6.22

6.92

7.48

8.08

8.09

8.72

8.48

7.83

4.78 4.67 4.68 4.63 4.66

4.46 4.40 4.37 4.27 4.33

4.68 4.65 4.66 4.62 4.62

8.80

8.63

1977-Jan. 1976--Dec.

1 8 15 22 29

U. S. Govt.-Constant Maturity Yields 20-yr 7-yr 3-yr (7) (8) (9)

8.13

8.03 8.00

7.91 7.78

8.80

1977--Jan.

5 12 19 26

4.47 4.55 4.65 4.72

4.41 4.58 4.62 4.68

4.67 4.89 5.03 5.12

4.63 4.68 4.75 4.75

Feb.

2 9 16 23

4.60 4.66

4.74 4.64

5.25 5.16

4.80 4.78

Daily--Feb.

3 10

4.58 7 4.6 p

4.73 4.63

5.30 5.12

8.80 8.78 8.78

8.51 8.39

4.48 4.65 4.63 4.70

4.50 4.70 4.75 4.75

5.83 6.20 6.33 6.48

6.59 6.97 6.99 7.09

7.26 7.50 7.54 7.59

7.90 8.05 8.10 8.22

7.95 8.06 8.15 8.18

5.78 5.89 5.90 5.92

8.70 8.73 8.73 8.73

-8.46 -8.49

7.56 7.92 7.92 7.92

4.70 4.61

4.80 4.75

6.54 6 4 . 0p

7.17 7.12p

7.63 7.61p

8.15 --

8.14 8.12p

5.93 5.86

8.68 n.a.

-8.52

7.95 7.92

6.58 6.41p

7.22 7.14p

7.66 64 7. p

Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. For columns 7 through 10, the weekly date Is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). averaged. Columns 11 and 12 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 13 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 14 gives PNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 15 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for shortterm forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling.

APPENDIX TABLE 1-A FEB.

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SBANK CKRDIT MEASURES

BANK RESERVES Period

Non borrowed

Total 6_

....

Monetary Ba

Adj.

Total Loans

Credit proxy

and Invest-

1977

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

ments

11,

4 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

7.2 -0.5 1.4

9.4 1.3 1.6

9.2 5.8 6.9

10.2 3.9 4.9

9.2 4.4 6.4

4.7 4.1 5.9

7.2 8.5 11.4

6.1 11.4 13.2

10.6 6.4 7.6

9.0 9.8 10.6

8.7 10.8 10.4

9.0 10.6 10.6

ZND HALF 1975

0.3

0.8

5.8

3.5

4.5

2.8

6.9

10.2

5.7

9.2

10.8

10.6

1ST HALF 1976 2ND HALF 1976

-1.3 4.1

-1.3 4.5

6.7 6.9

3.0 6.7

4.9 7.6

5.7 5.9

10.2 11.9

11.7 13.8

5.9 9.0

8.9 11.9

8.9 11.3

9.3 11.4

-6.3 3.7 0.4 7.8

-5.4 2.9 1.1 7.9

4.6 8.7 5.4 8.3

1.9 4.0 1.8 11.5

5.5 4.3 7.2 7.9

4.5 6.8 4.5 7.8

11.0 9.1 10.5 13.0

12.4 10.7 13.0 14.2

5.0 6.6 5.8 12.1

8.5 9.0 9.9 13.5

8.7 9.0 9.2 13.1

8.6 9.8 9.Z 13.2

-3.9 0.7 3.0 4.3

-3.2 0.4 3.0 4.6

5.4 8.5 6.0 7.2

2.6 2.2 3.9 8.2

3.8 5.4 6.0 8.7

2.9 8.2 4.2 6.3

9.9 10.5 9.2 12.3

11.5 11.8 11.4 14.3

5.4 6.4 6.1 9.7

8.6 9.1 9.3 12.5

9.2 9.1 9.3 11.6

9.4 9.6 9.6 11.6

-10.2 -6.9 -1.8 0.7 4.0 6.5 2.2 4.7 -5.8 4.4 13.6 5.3

-8.4 -7.0 -0.8 1.0 1.4 6.1 2.0 5.9 -4.5 3.3 14.4 6.0

2.7 4.0 7.1 12.2 7.0 6.8 5.4 6.4 4.5 7.1 10.2 7.5

0.2 4.4 1.2 2.1 -3.7 13.5 3.2 0.7 1.6 11.9 11.3 10.8

3.5 5.9 6.9 5.4 5.4 2.1 7.1 8.2 6.1 12.2 9.4 2.0

2.0 6.1 5.3 14.9 6.8 -1.2 7.1 5.1 1.2 13.7 0.0 8.1

10.8 14.1 7.8 14.1 8.9 4.3 12.0 9.0 10.1 15.7 10.1

12.3 14.6 10.0 14.2 10.5 7.1 12.8 12.5 13.3 16.8 12.3 13.0

3.5 7.7 3.8 9.4 3.9 6.4 8.9 2.2 6.2 13.4 9.3 13.1

7.6 10.6 7.3 11.1 7.3 8.3 10.9 7.9 10.9 15.3 11.5 13.4

7.9 10.1 7.8 10.9 7.5 8.6 11.8 7.0 8.6 14.5 11.4 12.9

8.0 10.0 7.7 11.3 8.4 9.4 12.1 7.0 8.4 14.4 11.6 13.2

8.4

10.0

9.8

10.2

ANNUALLY:

1974 1975 1976 SE M-ANNUALLY:

QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH

QTR. QTR. QTR. QTR.

1976 1976 1976 1976

QUARTERLY-AVt 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH

QTR. QTR. QTR. OTR.

1976 1976 1976 1976

MONTHLYt 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

10.0 4.2 9.0 5.8 . *. NOTESt ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS RELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY 1977-JAN.

8.5

9.0

12.6 9.4 . SUBJECT

10.7 I

TO RESERVE

* U ** REQUIREMENTS. LOANS SOLD TO BANK-

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

FEB. 11,

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BANKCREDIT MEASURES

BANK RESERVES Period

Non

Total 1

r on borrowed

1977

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

Total Loans

Adj.

oneary Base

Credit proxy

and Investments

34,202 34,034 34,507

33,475 33,904 349454

104,400 110,425 118,097

494.6 $13.8 538.8

695.2 725.5 771.6

283.1 294.8 312.2

612.4 664.3 739.7

981.5 1092.9 1236.9

701.4 746.5 803.0

1070.5 1175.1 1300.2

1180.9 1308.0 1443.6

1221.3 1350.7 1494.1

1976-JAN. FEB. MAR.

33,745 33,551 33,502

33,667 33,470 33,448

110,671 111,037 111,691

513.9 515.8 516.3

727.6 731.2 735.4

295.3 296.8 298.1

670.3 678.2 682.6

1104.1 1117.5 1126.8

748.7 753.5 755.9

1162.5 1192.9 1200.2

1316.6 1327.7 1336.3

1359.7 1371.0 1379.8

APR. MAY JUNE

33,521 33,632 33,814

33,477 33,517 33,688

112,830 113,489 114,132

517.2 515.6 521.4

738.7 742.0 743.3

301.8 303.5 303.2

690.6 695.7 698.2

1140.1 1150.1 1156.9

761.8 764.3 768.4

1211.3 1218.7 1227.1

1348.4 1356.8 1366.5

1392.8 1402.6 1413.6

JULY AUG. SEPT.

33,877 34,010 33,846

33,745 33,910 33,784

114,641 115,296 115,686

522.8 523.1 523.8

747.7 752.8 756.6

305.0 306.3 306.6

705.2 710.5 716.5

1169.2 1181.4 1194.5

774.1 775.5 779.5

1238.2 1246.3 1257.6

1379.9 1388.0 1397.9

1427.9 1436.2 1446.2

OCT. NOV. DEC.

33,971 34,355 34,507

33,877 34,283 349454

116,375 117,360 118,097

529.0 534,0 538.8

764.3 770.3 771.6

310.1 310.1 312.2

725.9 732.0 739.7

1211.2 1223.6 1236.9

788.2 794.3 803.0

1273.6 1285.8 1300.2

1414.8 1428.2 1443.6

1463.6 1477.6 1494.1

34,767

34,698

119,082

540.7

777.4

313.7

745.5

1247.9

808.6

1311.0

1455.4

1506.8

8 15

34,084 34,756

34,058 34,687

117,358 118,397

538.2 539.1

311.6 311.5

737.7 739.1

800.8 802.5

34,383

34,346

117,964

540.8

312.6

740.6

804.3

34,650

34,568

118,441

538.3

312.8

740.5

805.4

5 12 19

34,923 34,521 34,714

34,892 34,501 34,605

118,913 118,762 119,047

543.6 542.1 541.1

315.3 315.2 313.8

745.5 746.7 745.7

810.7 810.7 808.9

26P

35,052

34,962

119,560

540.4

311.8

744.7

807.8

34,629

34,542

119,000

539,7

312.1

745.2

808.2

ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976

NONTHLYs

1977-JAN.

WEEKLY I 1976-OEC.

1977-JAN.

FEB*

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR FORROMINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS5 M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. I/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQIIRlEMNT&.

NOTESI

FEB.

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

1977

11,

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Currency

Period

Demand Deposits 2

Total 3

Time and Savings Deposits

Mutual

Other Than CD's S Total Svings Other

Savings Bank & S&L Shares

ANNUALLY:

CD's 7

Credit Union Shares

Savingss TerCommercial U S Gov't Paper Bondsi/ Securities

1 10

(Per cent annual rates of growth)

1974 1975 1976

10.2 8.7 9.5

3.0 2.6 4.8

14.9 8.0 8.6

9.4 12.2 15.6

2ND HALF 1975

7.9

1.0

7.7

1ST HALF 1976 2ND HALF 1976

10.3 8.3

4.2 5.3

6.0 10.9

10.9 9.5 8.8 7.6

2.5 5.8 3.2 7.4

9.8 11.2 7.8 8.7

7.0 17.8 25.5

11.2 8.2 8.1

10.4

16.0

6.1

13.8 16.4

23.6 24.5

6.4 9.6

-29.0 -19.7

5.4 6.6 6.5 15.1

16.0 11.1 15.0 17.1

32.4 13.6 19.0 28.7

3.6 9.1 11.7 7.2

0.9 7.0 2.8 5.8

7.1 5.4 7.3 11.8

15.3 12.4 13.0 16.8

28.3 21.7 13.4 26.9

9.8 11.3 11.2 14.3 11.0 3.1 9.3 7.7 9.2 10.6 6.0 6.0

0.5 3.8 3.2 15.1 5.3 -3.2 6.4 4.8 -1.6 15.3 -2.6 9.4

4.3 9.0 2.9 5.8 1.8 12.0 9.8 0.0 9.7 13.2 15.3 16.1

17.2 20.5 9.8 14.0 9.9 9.2 15.5 11.7 17.2 17.3 17.6 15.6

10.4

3.6

10.0

12.1

41.3 -7.8 -22.9

5.5 15.8 15.9

12.1 20.2 18.0

4.8 6.3 6.8

9.0 39.5 8.8

-3.b

15.3

18.4

6.4

51.7

5.3

13.9 16.7

16.2 18.3

6.2 7.2

13.1 4.3

21.1 14.0

-42.4 -17.4 -40.5 1.3

14.5 12.8 16.9 15.9

16.8 15.0 17.8 18.1

5.9 6.4 8.1 6.2

12.8 13.0 -2.3 10.9

8.4 33.0 9.3 18.2

5.6 4.9 12.5 8.2

-29.8 -30.1 -24.6 -18.9

13.9 13.6 14.7 17.1

17.0 14.0 16.9 18.4

6.6 5.9 7.5 6.8

22.7 13.1 10.4 -0.6

17.3 23.1 21.0 11.6

26.9 44.6 23.3 22.1 18.3 0.0 11.4 21.9 22.8 30.0 26.2 28.0

10.3 2.3 -1.7 7.4 3.4 16.4 18.9 3.8 12.0 6.5 10.8 4.3

-54.1 -45.9 -31.8 -36.0 -43.8 28.0 -22.2 -67.9 -35.1 -15.2 -1.9 21.2

14.3 15.6 13.0 14.1 13.0 10.9 13.9 18.0 18.2 18.0 15.3 13.8

21 6 10.6 17.5 13.8 13.7 16.9 13.3 19.8 19.5 19.1 15.7 18.6

5.3 7.1 5.3 5.3 7.0 7.0 5.2 10.3 8.5 5.1 6.8 6.7

14.6 5.4 18.0 12.4 10.5 15.6 34.3 -10.0 -30.3 10.3 12.0 10.2

11.2 5.6 8.3 22.0 37.8 36.7 20.3 5.0 2.5 9.9 22.2 21.8

20.9

4.2

-3.8

12.0

15.3

6.7

10.1

16.b 5.7 18.3

SEMI-ANNUALLY:

QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH

QTR. OTR. QTR. QTR.

1976 1976 1976 1976

QUARTERLY-AV: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH

QTR. OTR. QTR. QTR.

1976 1976 1976 1976

MONTHLY: 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1977-JAN. 1/ P -

GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY.

AVERAGE

LEVELS

DERIVED

8Y AVERAGING

END OF CURRENT

MONTH

AND END OF

21.4

11, 1977

FEB.

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Savings Tie and Tre SaSavings and Deposits Demand Currency DPriod Deposits

Othr Than CD's

Total 2

ISavings

D's

Mutual Bank & S&L

Other

329.3

136.2 160.5 201.4

193.1

209.0 226.0

89.0 82.1 63.3

405.4 409.8

ShortTerm U.S. Gov't

Credit Union Savings Shares Bonds _ 1_

Commercial Paper _ Sec 1/

NonTotal Gov't Deposit Funds Demand Depit

341.5 395.5 458.3

27.7 33.3 39.3

63.3 67.3 71.9

47.1 65.7 71.5

40.4 42.7 50.5

5.6 7.6 10.1

400.2

33.9 34.2 34.7

67.6 68.0 68.3

66.5 66.8 67.8

43.1 43.3 43.6

8.0 10.9 10.9

35.1 35.5 36.0

68.6 69.0 69.4

68.5 69.1 70.0

44.4 45.8 47.2

7.2 7.4 9.6

ANNUALLY:

67.8 73.7 80.7

215.3 221.0 231.6

418.3 451.7 490.7

74. 3 75,0 75.7

221.1 221.8 222.4

453.3 456.7 457.8

374.9

381.3 384.4

164.1 170.2 173.5

210.8 211.2 210.9

78.4 75.4 73.4

APR. MAY JUNE

76.6 77.3 77.5

225.2 226.2 225.6

460.0

460.7 465.3

388.9 392.1 395.1

176.7 179.4 179.4

212.2 212.8 215.7

71.2 68.6 70.2

JULY AUG. SEPT.

78.1 78.6 79.2

226.8 227.7 227.4

469.1 469.1 472.9

400.2 404.1 409.9

181.1 187.9

219.1 219.8 222.0

68.9 65.0 63.1

434.2 440.8

36.4 37.0 37.6

69.7 70.3 70.8

72.0 71.4 69.6

48.0 48.2 48.3

9.0 13.8 13.1

OCT. NOV. DEC.

79.9 80.3 80.7

230.3 229.8 231.6

478.1

484.2 490.7

415.8 421.9 427.4

192.6 196.8 201.4

223.2 225.2 226.0

62.3 62.2 63.3

447.4 453.1 458.3

38.2 38.7 39.3

71.1 71.5 71.9

70.2 70.9 71.5

48.7 49.6 50.5

13.9 13.5 10.1

81.4

232.3

494.8

431.7

204.9

226.8

63.1

462.9

39.8

72.3

72.1

51.4

10.2

80.6 80.8 80.7 80.8

231.0 230.7 231.9 232.0

489.2 491.0 491.7 492.6

426.1 427.7 428.0 427.7

202.3 203.4 204.5 204.7

223.9 224.3 223.5 223.0

63.1 63.4 63.7 64.9

8.9 8.7 11.2 10.7

19 26P

80.9 81.3 81.4 81.6

234.4 233.9 232.3 230.2

495.4 495.5 495.2 496.0

430.2 431.4 431.9 432.9

205.6 207.3 207.7

205.8

224.6 224.1 224.2 227.1

65.2 64. 1 63.3 63.1

10.2 10.6 10.2 10.1

81.6

230.5

496.1

433.1

205.9

227.2

63.0

9.9

1974 1975 1976

369.6

427.4

MONTHLY: 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR.

1977--JAN.

184.4

414.6 419.1 422.9 427.8

WEEKLY 1976-

EC.

22 29 1977-J AN.

FEB.

. -

1/ 2/ P -

ESTIMATED MONTHLY INCLUDES TREASURY PRELIMINARY

. -

a -

. -

a -

AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS.

AND

. -

END

MONTH REPORTED

I -

DATA.

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1977, February 14). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770215

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19770215,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1977},
  month = {Feb},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770215},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}