bluebooks · April 18, 1977

Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

April 15, 1977

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC

April 15, 1977

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M 1 expanded at about a 5 March.

per cent annual rate in

However, growth accelerated sharply in the early weeks of

April, partly, it seems, as a result of earlier-than-usual disbursement of the regular monthly social security payments.

For the March-

April period, M1 is now projected to increase at about a 9¼ per cent annual rate--above the 8

per cent upper limit of the Committee's desired

range.

M 2 grew at somewhat more than an 8 per cent annual rate in

March.

While its growth also accelerated in early April, this was due

entirely to the more rapid expansion of M1; the March-April growth for M 2 still appears to be well below the upper limit of the Committee's range.

Nonborrowed reserves fell in March.

With the recent pick-up in

deposit growth at member banks, however, they are expected to grow rapidly in April.

Growth in Monetary Aggregates over March-April period 1/ (SAAR in per cent) Ranges

Latest Estimates

4½ to 8½

9.2

7 to 11

9.8 Avg. for statement

Memorandum:

week ending 4.62 Mar. 16 23 4.77 30 4.74 4.60 Apr. 6 13 4.65

Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

1/ These figures do not incorporate the quarterly benchmark revisions of monetary aggregates that will be published on April 21.

The

benchmark revisions (based on the September call report) are relatively small.

The level of M

for recent months revised up no

more than $700 million. The monthly levels of M 2 were adjusted by even smaller amounts. All tables on subsequent pages of this report (with the exception of Tables 1 and 2, following the charts) are based on the new series. The new and old series are compared in Appendix V. (2) Over most of the intermeeting period, incoming data suggested that March-April growth rates for M within their respective ranges.

and M 2 would be well

The Desk, therefore, continued to aim

for a Federal funds rate in the area of 4-5/8--4¾ per cent.

Most recently,

with growth in M1 exceeding its two-month range, the Desk has sought a funds rate around 4¾ per cent. (3) Credit demands have remained sizable in recent weeks. Business short-term borrowing appears to have slackened from the high rate of January-February, but public offerings of long-term corporate bonds have picked up a little.

State and local governments security

issues have remained very large.

The Federal Government borrowed

$3.6 billion of new cash through issues of 2- and 5-year notes since the March FOMC meeting.

In addition the Treasury sold $4.5 billion of

short-dated cash management bills to bridge a low point in its cash balance prior to the April tax date. (4)

Market interest rates showed little change over most of the

intermeeting period.

But when the President's intention to withdraw the

rebate program became known, interest rates fell sharply.

The subsequent

publication of data indicating a record weekly growth of M1 in early April had very little offsetting market impact.

On balance, over the inter-

meeting period, most short-term rates have declined 5 to 15 basis points, bond yields are down 10 to 20 basis points, and intermediate-term Treasury coupon yields are off as much as 35 basis points.

(5) The table on the following page shows (in terms of percentage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods.

-4-

1975 & 1976 Average

Past

Twelve Months Mar. '77 over Mar. '76

Six Months Mar. '77 over Sept. '76

Three Months Mar. '77 over Dec. '76

Past Month Mar. '77 over Feb. '77

Past

Nonborrowed reserves

1.4

2.2

2.6

-2.4

-4.2

Total reserves

0.4

2.4

2.9

-1.8

-3.0

Monetary Base

6.5

7.0

6.6

5.2

5.0

5.2

6.0

4.2

6.1

10.4

10.5

10.6

8.0

institutions)

13.0

12.4

12.1

9.7

8.9

M4 (M2 plus CD's)

7.2

8.0

9.5

6.8

5.9

M5 (M3 plus CD's)

10.7

11.3

8.9

7.5

Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.)

4.5

5.1

7.2

2.9

7.1

Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/

6.0

8.6

9.8

11.5

10.7

-1.1

-0.9

-0.2

-0.4

-1.1

0.0

0.2

0.1

-0.4

Concepts of Money M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's)

M3 (2 plus deposits at thrift

Bank Credit

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments

(6)

Alternative longer-run ranges for the monetary aggregates

are shown below for Committee consideration.

Alternatives A through C

are the staff's estimates of consistent sets of specifications that pertain to the one-year QI '77-QI '78 period.

The ranges earlier adopted by the

Committee for the QIV '76-QIV '77 period are shown in the fourth column. Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

5½-7½

4½-6½

3½-5½

8-11

6½-9½

5½-8½

9-12

7½-10½

6-9

8½-11½

7½-10½

7-10

Bank credit proxy (7)

Current 4½-6½ 7-10

Alternative B encompasses a one-year growth rate for M1

of 4½-6½ per cent, the same range as is currently in place.

However,

growth ranges for M2 and M 3 under this alternative are lower--by ½ percentage point for M 2 and 1 percentage point for M 3 .

Lower ranges for the

broader aggregates relative to M1 are expected mainly because the new ranges now apply to a period that excludes QIV '76, when relatively low market rates produced large inflows of time and savings deposits at depository institutions, and instead includes QI '78, when relatively high market interest rates are expected to dampen such flows.1/ (8)

Shorter-run ranges for the monetary aggregates and

the Federal funds rate that are thought to be consistent with the 1/

Appendix I compares terminal levels of M1 and M2 under the proposed alternatives with levels implicit in the current ranges.

-6various longer-run ranges are presented below.

(Detailed data are

shown in the tables on pp. 7 and 8). Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

6½-10½

6-10

5½-9½

8½-12½

8-12

7½-11½

3¾-4¾

4¼-5¼

Ranges for April-May

Federal funds rate (intermeeting period) (9)

4¾-5¾

Under alternative B (as well as the other two alternatives),

growth in M1 is expected to be relatively sizable in the April-May period, reflecting the large increase in M1 that is apparently under way in April. We expect the exceptionally large April growth to be partly offset by relatively small growth rates in May and June.

However, for the second

quarter, M1 is anticipated to grow at about a 7 per cent annual rate, a more rapid pace than in the past few quarters, reflecting the recent strengthening of economic activity and presumably also of transactions demands for money. (10)

M 2 growth under alternative B is expected to be in an

8-12 per cent annual rate range during the April-May period, and to expand at about a 9¼ per cent annual rate from the first to second quarter.

Time and savings deposits other than large CD's are expected

to expand over the next few weeks at close to their recent pace, given a Federal funds rate around the mid-point of a 4¼-5¼ per cent range. (11)

Over the next few weeks, demands on credit markets are

likely to be quite moderate.

Without the rebate program, Treasury

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates

Alt. A

Alt. B

March April May

316.1 319.6 320.7

316.1 319.6 320.4

316.1

319.6 320.2

754.1 761.3 767.5

1976

QIV

311.3

1977

QI QII QIII QIV

315.0 325.7 330.6

315.0 320.5 324.9 329.0

335.6

13.3 4.1

1977

1978

320.9

Alt.

Alt. A

Alt.

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

754.1 761.3 766.7

754.1 761.3 765.9

1265.9 1277.7 1289.2

1265.9 1277.7 1287.9

1265.9 1277.7 1286.5

732.2

1223.1

315.0 320.1 323.7 326.1

749.4

767.6 785.0 801.7

749.4 766.6 782.2 796.7

749.4 765.6 778.7 789.7

1256.7 1289.5 1323.0 1355.1

1256.7 1287.8 1317.3 1344.1

1256.7 1286.1 1310.4 1330.8

332.3

329.1

818.6

810.0

800.9

1387.7

1369.1

1351.0

13.3 3.0

13.3 2.3

11.5 9.8

11.5 8.5

Growth Rates Monthly: 1977

April May

11.5 7.3

11.2 10.8

11.2 9.6

11.2 8.3

Quarterly Average:

1977

QIV

4.8 7.5 6.0 6.0

4.8 7.0 5.5 5.0

4.8 6.5 4.5 3.0

9.4 9.7 9.1 8.5

9.4 9.2 8.1 7.4

9.4 8.6 6.8 5.7

11.0 10.4 10.4 9.7

11.0 9.9 9.2 8.1

11.0 9.4 7.6 6.2

6.0

4.0

3.7

8.4

6.7

5.7

9.6

7.4

6.1

Semi-annual QI '77-QIII '77 QIII '77-QI '78

6.8 6.1

6.3 4.6

5.5 3.3

9.5 8.6

8.8 7.1

7.8 5.7

10.6 9.8

9.6 7.9

8.5 6.2

Annual QIV '76-QIV '77 QI '77-QI '78

6.2 6.5

5.7 5.5

4.8 4.5

9.5 9.2

8.8 8.1

7.9 6.9

10.8 10.4

9.9 8.9

8.8 7.5

1978

QI QII QIII

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1977

March April May

816.3 823.5 829.1

816.3 823.5 828.5

816.3 823.5 827.8

1328.1 1339.9 1350.9

1328.1 1339.9 1349.7

1328.1 1339.9 1348.5

542.7 545.6 548.2

542.7 545.6 547.8

542.7 545.6 547.3

1976

QIV

794.9

1285.7

533.9

1977

QI QII QIII

812.2 829.4 848.0

812.2 828.5 845.7

812.2 827.8 843.2

1319.5 1351.3 1386.0

1319.5 1349.7 1380.8

1319.5 1348.3 1375.0

541.0 548.9 562.5

541.0 548.4 561.0

541.0 547.9 559.7

QIV

867.2

863.4

858.6

1420.5

1410.9

1399.7

575.9

573.7

571.0

887.5

880.9

874.5

1456.6

1439.9

1424.6

594.0

590.0

586.4

10.6 8.2

10.6 7.3

10.6 6.3

10.7 9.9

10.7 8.8

10.7 7.7

6.4 5.7

6.4 4.8

6.4 3.7

8.7

10.5

5.3

QII QIII QIV

8.5 9.0 9.1

8.0 8.3 8.4

7.7 7.4 7.3

9.6 10.3 10.0

9.2 9.2 8.7

8.7 7.9 7.2

5.8 9.9 9.5

5.5 9.2 9.1

5.1 8.6 8.1

9.4

8.1

7.4

10.2

8.2

7.1

12.6

11.4

8.8 9.3

8.2 8.3

7.6 7.4

10.1 10.2

9.3 8.6

8.4 7.2

7.9 11.2

7.4 10.3

6.9 9.5

9.1 9.3

8.6 8.5

8.0 7.7

10.5 10.4

9.7 9.1

8.9 8.0

7.9 9.8

7.5 9.1

6.9 8.4

1978

Growth Rates Monthly: 1977

April May

Quarterly Averages: 1977

1978

Semi-annual QI '77-QIII '77 QIII '77-QI '78

10.8

Annual

QIV '76-QIV '77 QI '77-QI '78

borrowing in the second quarter will be reduced by about $8 ½ billion. As a result, the Treasury probably will raise no, or very little, new cash in the market between now and mid-year.

The Treasury will announce

terms of its mid-May refunding on April 27, and this may well be a routine package of intermediate- and longer-term coupon issues to replace $4.3 billion of publicly held maturing obligations.

Corporate bond offerings

during the spring are expected to run below the monthly average pace of the first quarter, according to market reports, but offerings of municipal bonds are expected to remain sizable. (12)

After mid-year, Treasury demands on credit markets will

strengthen considerably.

Total private credit demands are also expected

to expand along with continued relatively rapid growth in economic activity. With demands for money also anticipated to be rather substantial, interest rates, particularly short-term rates, are likely to rise substantially in the second half of the year if growth in the monetary aggregates is to be maintained around the mid-points of the longer-run ranges shown for alternative B.

As shown in appendix III, the staff expects the funds

rate under alternative B to average around 4-7/8 per cent in the current quarter, to rise to 5½ per cent in the third, and to reach about 6½ per cent by the first quarter of 1978. (13)

These interest rate projections are a little lower than

shown in recent blue books for a longer-run M1 growth rate in a 4½-6½ per cent range.

In part this reflects reduced Treasury credit demands. But

-10it also takes account of the possibility that the demand for money may be somewhat less relative to GNP than we earlier thought--as might be suggested by the acceleration in the income velocity of M1 that occurred during the first quarter of this year without any accompanying rise in short-term rates.

Velocity figures for all three alternatives are shown

in appendix IV. (14)

The projected rise in market interest rates will lead

to slower inflows of time and savings deposits other than large CD's to banks and thrift institutions as the year progresses even though institutions that had earlier reduced offering rates on such deposits are likely to re-establish ceiling rates.

With loan demands at banks expected to

be at least as strong as in the past few months, banks can be expected both to cut down on acquisitions of Treasury securities and also to expand their outstanding volume of CD's.

Thrift institutions are also

likely to reduce their liquidity over the year--with savings and loan associations increasing their borrowing from the Home Loan Bank System-in order to accommodate outstanding commitments and to become more cautious in making new commitments. come under increasing pressure.

As a result the mortgage market would

The extent of upward rate pressure in

long-term markets in general under this alternative may be fairly moderate, though, given the large cash flow to institutional investors, particularly insurance companies, and assuming inflationary expectations do not worsen. (15)

Alternative A contemplates an easing of money market

conditions between now and the next Committee meeting, with the funds

-11rate dropping to the mid-point of a 3¾-4¾ per cent range.

Such a move

would be accompanied by somewhat greater growth in the monetary aggregates than under alternative B over the April-May period.

particular, there may be substantial inflows into savings deposits as short-term market rates drop significantly further below ceiling rates on such deposits.

This would, of course, increase pressure on institutions

to shave their offering rates. (16)

The lower interest rates associated with this alternative

over the next few weeks are not likely to prove sustainable, however. In view of the apparent strength of the economy, interest rates may be expected to rise even with the more rapid longer-run growth in the monetary aggregates encompassed by alternative A.

The increase in rates

would probably be moderate, though, with the funds rate rising to about

5 per cent by the first quarter of next year. (17)

Alternative C involves an increase in the Federal funds

rate between now and the next Committee meeting to around 5¼ per cent, the mid-point of a 4¾-5¾ per cent range.

Such a funds rate increase at

this time may be accompanied by a rise in bill rates of roughly the same magnitude over the next few weeks.

The extent of adjustment in bill,

as well as longer-term, rates will depend in large part on the market's assessment of the interest rate outlook and on the market's technical condition.

At present, dealer positions are relatively low, particularly

in the coupon area, and this would tend to moderate upward interest rate adjustments.

On the other hand, if many market participants

do not expect the Fed to let the money market tighten at this time, evidence of a tightening could cause a more substantial market reaction.

-12(18)

The immediate tightening of the money market contemplated

under alternative C would also more quickly set in train the market and institutional responses described in paragraph (14).

Inflows of time

and savings deposits would begin to slow in the weeks ahead as the bill

rate moved close to and perhaps above the passbook ceiling rate.

Large

commercial banks could be expected to become more aggressive in the market for CD's and nondeposit sources of funds.

And thrift institutions would

begin re-evaluating their mortgage market participation. (19)

If the growth in M1 over the QI '77-QI '78 period is

to be constrained to around the mid-point of the 3½-5½ per cent longerrun range of alternative C, further firming in money market conditions would probably be required as the year progresses. institutions would, of course, intensify.

Pressures on financial

The staff expects that the

Federal funds rate would have to rise to about 6¼ per cent in the third quarter and 7¼ per cent by early 1978.

-13Directive language (20)

Given below are alternatives for the operational para-

graphs of the directive.

The first formulation, like the directive

adopted at the last meeting, places main emphasis on near-term rates of growth in monetary aggregates; it shows--in strike-through form--the specifications adopted at the last meeting.

The second formulation

places main emphasis on money market conditions.

As suggested below,

the particular language needed in the opening lines of the money market formulation would depend on the specific conditions sought; the three alternatives shown--calling, respectively, for somewhat easier, prevailing, and somewhat firmer money market conditions--are intended to be associated with the specifications discussed in the preceding section under alternatives A, B, and C. "Monetary Aggregates" Formulation The Committee seeks to encourage near-term rates of growth in M-1 and M-2 on a path believed to be reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph.

Specifically, at present, it expects the

March-April]APRIL-MAY period to be annual growth rates over the [DEL: 4- 1 /2 to 8-1/2]____ within the ranges of [DEL: 7 to _____ 11] for M-1 and [DEL:

to ____

per cent

per cent for M-2.

In the

judgment of the Committee such growth rates are likely to be associated with a weekly average Federal funds rate of about[DEL: 4-5/8 to 4-3/4]____

per cent.

If giving,

-14approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period will deviate significantly from the midpoints of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion 4-1/4 to 5-1/4]____ within a range of[DEL:

to ____

per cent.

If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to

notify

the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. "Money Market" Formulation At this time, the Committee seeks to maintain about the prevailing money market conditions (or to achieve somewhat easier or somewhat firmer money market conditions) during the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear

to be growing at approximately the rates currently

expected, which are believed to be on a path reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph.

Specifically, the Committee seeks

to maintain the weekly average Federal funds rate at about ____ per cent, so long as M-1 and M-2 appear to be growing over the APRIL-MAY period at annual rates within ranges of ____ to ____

per cent and ____

to ____

per cent,

-15respectively.

If, giving approximately equal weight to M-1 and

M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period are approaching or moving beyond the limits of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the weekly average Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of ____

to ____

per cent.

If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee.

Appendix I Comparison of Levels of M1 and M2 Under Current

and Proposed Longer-run Ranges ($ billion; based on revised series) M1 Level Based on Growth From QIV '76 at a Terminal Quarters

Levels based on longer-run growth

5 Per Cent Annual Rate

from QI '77 at rates assumed in: Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C

QIV '77

328.4

330.6

329.0

326.1

QI '78

332.9

335.6

332.3

329.1

M2 M

Growth From QIV at an 8 Per Cent Rate QIV '77

794.4

801.7

796.7

789.7

QI '78

811.3

818.6

810.0

800.9

NOTE:

The last three columns assume that growth around the mid-points of the proposed ranges is achieved and are the same numbers as shown in the table on p. 7. The table above facilitates comparison of longer-run paths

proposed in the present blue book with the Committee's current longerrun path.

The first column of numbers shows the level of M1 and M 2 in

the fourth quarter of 1977 implied by the mid-point growth rate of the longer-run path (which takes QIV '76 as the base) and in the first quarter of 1978 on the assumption that the mid-point growth rate is

I - 2 extended for one more quarter.

The last three columns shown levels

in the fourth quarter of 1977 and the first quarter of 1978 implied by the alternatives presented in the present blue book (which take QI '77 as the base). Of the three alternatives presented, alternative B is closest to the current longer-run path.

By the first quarter of 1978, the levels

of M1 and M 2 under B are only two-tenths of 1 per cent different from those implied by the current path.

Terminal levels under alternatives

A and C are about 3/4 of a per cent to 1¼ per cent different from those implied by the current path.

Appendix II

Expansion in Reserves Over the Period From QI '77 to QIII '77 Consistent With Proposed Alternatives (Seas. adj. annual rates) Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Nonborrowed Res erves

6.6

4. 9

2.0

Total Reserves

6.6

6. 1

5.6

Monetary Base

8.1

8. 0 L 3

7.8

Shown above are 6-month growth rates in various reserve measures consistent with the mid-points of the alternative longer-run paths for the monetary aggregates presented in this blue book.

Appendix III

Projected Federal Funds Rate Alt. A

1977, QII QIII QIV 1978, QI

Alt.

Alt. C

4-3/8

4-7/8

5-3/8

Appendix IV Implied Velocity Growth Rates

(GNP/M4

1977

1978

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

4.4

4.8

5.2

III

5.0

5.2

5.8

6.8

7.2

8.3

6.7

7.4

7.0

2.2

2.6

3.1

III

2.0

2.6

3.5

4.3

4.8

5.6

4.3

4.7

5.0

V2 (GNP/MA 1977

1978

Appendix V Comparisons of Old and Revised Money Stock Growth Rates

-M M -2-

-1M Old 1976-July

Revised

-3-

Old

Revised

Old

Revised

7.1

12.0

12.8

August

5.1

5.9

9.0

8.8

12.5

12.3

September

1.2

1.6

10.1

10.0

13.3

13.7

14.1

15.7

16.8

16.7

November

0.0

0.4

10.1

9.9

12.3

12.2

December

8.1

8.5

12.6

12.5

13.0

5.4

5.8

9.2

9.3

11.3

11.2

February

0.8

6.8

6.6

8.6

8.8

March

5.4

6.1

8.2

8.0

8.7

8.9

1976--I

4.5

11.0

12.4

6.8

9.1

10.7

III

4.5

4.9

10.5

10.4

13.0

12.9

7.3

7.7

13.0

12.8

14.2

14.1

3.8

4.2

8.1

8.0

9.6

2.9

9.9

11.5

11.4

8.2

10.5

11.8

III

4.2

4.4

9.2

9.1

11.4

6.3

6.7

12.3

12.2

14.3

14.2

4.4

4.8

9.4

11.0

October

1977-January

Quarterly: /

1977--1

9.7

Quarterly Average:

1976--I

1977--I 1/

End-month-of-quarter to end-month-of-quarter

CHART 1

4/15/77

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 325

320

315

BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2

310

305

720

770 11% growth

760

700

growth

680

740

660

I 1975

1976

750

M 1977

730

CHART 2

4/15/77

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - 550

RESERVES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -37

TOTAL

1975

1976

1977

4/15/77

CHART 3

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY

MARKET CONDITIONS

INTEREST RATES Long-term

PER CENT

WEEKLY AVERAGES

| F.R. DISCOUNT RATE

FUNDS

BILLIONS OF

1975

1976

1977

1975

1976

1977

1975

1976

1977

Table 1

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) APR.1, CLASS

MONETARY AGGREGATES

II-FOMC

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Narrow Broad (Ml) (M2)

Period

MONTHLY

Adjusted Credit Proxy

Total U.S. Govt. Deposits

Time and Savings Deposits Other Than CD'S Total Savings Ot er

Nondeposit Member Sources of U.S. Govt. Funds Deposits,

313.6 313.8 315.2 (318.6)

745.4 749.5 754.6 (761.80

540.8 539.5 542.7 (545.5)

10.0 11.7 11.2 1 9.7)

494.8 499.0 501.6 (505.3)

431.8 435.8 439.4 (443.2)

205.0 207.1 208.8 (210.9)

226.7 228.6 230.6 (232.3)

4.5 7.3 3.8

10.5 13.0 8.1

1.8 11.5 2.9

6.5 15.1 8.9

15.0 17.1 11.2

19.0 28.7 14.7

11.7 7.2 8.1

-40.5 1.3 -7.0

4.2 6.3 4.4

9.2 12.3 9.4

3.9 8.2 5.3

7.3 11.8 11.7

13.0 16.8 13.3

13.4 26.9 Z0.5

12.5 8.2 6.8

-24.6 -18.9 1.

(

5.4 0.8 5.4 12.9)

(

9.2 6.6 8.2 11.4)

(

4.5 -2.9 7.1 6.2)

(

10.0 10.2 6.3 8.9)

(

12.4 11.1 9.9 10.4)

21.5 12.3 9.9 12.1)

(

3.7 10.1 10.5 8.8)

-3.6 3.3 -20.9 0.0)

(

9.2)

(

9.8)

(

6.7)

(

7.6)

(

10.2)

(

11.0)

9.7)

-10.4)

LEVELS-sBIL

1977-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR.

(

.3.1 63.3 62. 62.2)

6.3 I(

7.5 7.7 .7)

2.1 2.5 2.8 2.t)

X ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976-3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1977-1ST QTR. QUARTERLY-AV 1976-3RD QTR. 4TH OTR. 1977-1ST OTR. MONTHLY 1977-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAR.-APR. WEEKLY

LEVELS-SBIL

1977-MAR.

2 9 16 23 30

313.2 314.7 316.4 315.2 314.1

750.1 752.9 755.5 755.2 754.7

540.3 541.0 543.6 543.6 541.2

11.6 11.5 12.1 11.2 9.7

499.6 500.5 501.1 501.9 503.1

436.9 438.2 439.1 440.0 440.6

207.6 208.5 208.7 208.9 209.2

229.3 Z29.7 230.5 231.2 231.4

62.7 62.4 62.0 618 62.5

7.7 7.7 7.5 8.3 7.4

2.4 2.9 3.7 3.0 2.0

APR.

319.1

761.5

546.5

8.6

504.9

442.4

209.7

232.7

62.5

7.4

2.6

NOTE: 1/

DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER bANKS AND FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANKS.

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC APR. 15, 1977

TABLE 2

BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

REQUIRED RESERVES

BANK RESERVES Period

Total Reserves

Nonborrowed Reserves

Monetary Base

Total Required

Private Demand

Total Time Deposits

Gov't and Interbank

'1"NTHLY LEV.LS-SMILLIfNS

1977-JAN.

PFRCF'T

34,778

34,710

119,102

34,512

20,

,34

12,044

FES.

34,326

1,633

34,397

119,079

34,199

20,416

12,038

1,725

MAR. APR.

34,310 134,689)

34,2C7 (34,638)

119,574 (120,834)

34,102 (34,437)

20,403 12,511)

14I,13 (1llb2)

ANNUAL

1,!77 1,139)

GROWTH

OUARTFRLY 1976--3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1977-1ST QTR.

0.6 7.6 -1.s

1.3 7.7 -2.4

6.1 8.0 5.2

0.7 6.8 -1.0

3.8 1.6 3.7

-5.8.C 6.9

2.7 4.4 2.7

2.6 4.8 2.6

6.3 7.1 6.8

2.4 4.0 3.1

3.0 3.2 0.0

-0.7 -0.7 9.5

(

24.8 -12.7 -O.b t.7)

QUARTERLY-AV 197b-3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. 1977-1ST OTR. MONTHLY 1977-JAN. FEB. MAR APR. MAR.-APR.

(

10.9 -13.1 -3.0 13.3)

(

5.1)

10.4 -13.3 -4.2 1 15.1) (

5.5)

(

10.7 -0.2 5.0 12.6)

(

11.3 -10.9 -3.4 11.8)

(

8.8)

(

4.2)

3.0)

(

12.9 1.4 b.5 5.8) 6b.2)

WEEKLY LEVELS-MILLIONS

NOTE:

1977-MAR.

2 9 16 23 30

34,346 34,048 34,242 34,139 34,762

34,316 34,028 34,218 33,801 34,704

119,244 118,837 119,356 119,524 120,568

34,196 33,775 34,074 34,062 34,443

20,539 20,t3z 20,328 20,369 20,630

12,139 12,120 12,111 12,123 12,129

1,518 1,424 1,635 1,571 1,64

APR.

6 13

34,586 34,280

34,521 34 241

120,299 119,868

34,299 33,995

20,495 20,203

12,149 12,154

1,t55 1,638

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

ASSOCIATFD

WITH

HANGES.

RFSFRVE RFOQIITRFMMT ... "L"

RATTI"

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC

TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted)

I Treasury Bills Net Change 2/

Period

Within 1 year

789 579 797 3,284 3,025

-490 7,232 1,280 -468 863 1976--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr.

Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Over 10 5 - 10 1 - 5 539 500 434 1,510 1,048

167 129 196 1,070 642

-363 2,067 45 -886

I II II] IV

1,164

1977--Qtr. I

192

997

325

165

107

41 --

6 13 20 27

LEVEL Apr. 13

4/ 5/

592 400 1,665 824 469

1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187

1,680

--- --

Total 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891

(in billions)

39.5

10.2

Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/

-1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607

1,022 3,371 1,398 436

1,256 1,654 392 304

--- --- --

--- -4,771

409 -377 403

-1,742 -3,930 5,976

2,908 -125

-6,877 1,931 175 -7,198 6,641 -946

-45

Net RP's 61

1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227

2,738

18 --

720 -24 ----5

348

151

687

681

2,179

--- --- --- --------

----

298

-----

-278

--- 288

-3,071 -3,576 -2,310 9,665

-6

-4,210

--- --- --- --- -------

--- --- --- --- 9.9

5.4

1.5

3.3

1.2

S--

9 16 23 30

1/ 2/ 3/

5 -

695 687 298

2,222 -691 -368

Apr.

1 -

Over 10

266 1,029

1977--Jan. Feb. Mar.

Mar.

Total

--- Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/

1,052 1,284 1,557 1,294

1976--Oct. Nov. Dec.

1977--Feb.

APRIL 15, 1977

II SWithin 1 year

(FR)

174

30.8

56.4

6.7

-371

-25 -6

-177

-117

102.7

-9,141 7,954

-1.2

Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludeiredemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC

TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars)

U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Bills

(1)

Coupon Issues

(2)

Underwriting Syndicate Positions Municipal Corporate Bonds

Bonds

APRIL 15, 1977

Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit Excess** Reserves

Total

(6)

(4)

Seasonal

8 New York

38 Others

(8)

(9)

343 34

655 -180

242 24

-8,161 -2,367

-12,744

1976--High Low

8,896 3,668

3,046 175

1977--High Low

7,234 *3,140

3,017 *275

333 137

513 -111

339 20

-8,742 -4,293

-13,975 -9,318

5,910

778

151

223

-4,726

- 9,640

Apr. May June

5,570 4,239 4,996

605 591 582

133 199 196

155 210 214

43 114 127

-5,179 -4,402 -4,219

-10,783

July Aug. Sept.

5,743 6,174 7,838

904 1,686 1,509

211 116 172

234 207 205

132 100 63

-4,756 -4,624 -5,703

- 9,399 - 9,691 - 9,716

Oct. Nov. Dec.

6,271 6,876 8,005

1,832 2,418 2,443

258 217 167

221 257 274

94 72 53

-6,428 -6,289 -7,168

-10,527 -11,618 -11,449

1977--Jan. Feb. Mar.

6,406 4,450 *4,906

2,320 1,605 *972

202 226 162

265 198 7 21 p

68 72 104p

-6,421 -5,604 -5,652p

-11,504 -11,503 9 6 -10, 1 p

2 9 16 23

3,720 4,371 4,583 5,098

1,694 2,385 1,623 969

139 204 228 333

130 256 164 229

86 75 129 36

-4,293 -5,680 -6,288 -5,589

- 9,905

Mar.

2 9 16 23 30

4,232 5,174 5,342 *4,814 *3,140

913 354 303 *275 *453

155 137 163 180 175

150 273 168 77 319p

30 20 24 338 58p

-4,716 -6,353 -6,912 -5,079 -4,933

-10,869 -11,550 -11,527 -11,539 -9,318

Apr.

6 13 20 27

*6,208 *6,670

*761 *453

232 86p

287p 292p

65p 39p

-5,766p -7,563p

-11,479p 97 -13, 5p

1976--Mar.

1977--Feb.

- 6,908

- 8,151 - 9,158

-12,294 -11,482 -11,090

NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures,

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC APRIL 15, 1977

TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent)

Long-term

Short-term Treasury Bills Federal Funds (1)

90-Day (2)

1-Year (3)

Commercial Paper 90-119 Day (4)

1976--High Low

5.58 4.63

5.53 4.27

6.32 4.62

1977--High Low

4.77 4.47

4.74 4.41

1976--Mar.

4.84

5.00

CD's New Issue-NYC

U.S. Govt.-Constant Maturity Yields 7-yr 20-yr 3-yr (7) (8) (9)

Corp.-Aaa Utility Recently New Offered Issue (10) (11)

Municipal Bond Buyer (12)

Home Mortgages Primary Secondary Market FNMA Auc. GNMA Sec. Cony. (13) (14) (15)

60-Day (5)

90-Day (6)

5.90 4.63

5.63 4.40

5.75 4.50

7.52 5.65

7.89 6.33

8.17 7.23

8.95 7.93

8.94 7.84

7.13 5.83

9.10 8.70

9.20 8.39

8.45 7.57

5.25 4.67

4.75 4.63

4.70 4.48

4.80 4.63

6.49 5.83

7.23 6.59

7.76 7.26

8.30 7.90

8.32 7.95

5.93 5.78

8.73 8.65

8.72 8.46

8.08 7.56

5.82

5.25

5.05

5.20

7.13

7.65

7.97

8.62

8.61

6.92

8.76

9.05

8.30

4.81 5.25 5.55

4.94 5.38 5.68

6.84 7.27 7.32

7.44 7.77 7.76

7.86 8.13 8.03

8.48 8.82 8.72

8.52 8.77 8.73

6.60 6.87 6.87

8.73 8.77 8.85

8.89 9.09 9.13

8.10 8.33 8.35

Apr. May June

4.82 5.29 5.48

5.08 5.44 5.83

July Aug. Sept.

5.31 5.29 5.25

5.54 4.35 5.33

5.30 5.23 5.11

5.42 5.31 5.24

7.12 6.86 6.66

7.70 7.58 7.41

8.00 7.91 7.78

8.63 8.52 8.29

8.63 8.50 8.33

6.79 6.61 6.51

8.93 9.00 8.98

9.05 8.99 8.88

8.37 8.30 8.10

Oct. Nov. Dec.

5.03 4.95 4.65

4.92 4.75 4.35

5.10 4.98 4.66

4.90 4.84 4.48

5.04 4.94 4.50

6.24 6.09 5.68

7.16 6.86 6.37

7.70 7.64 7.30

8.25 8.17 7.94

8.24 8.18 7.93

6.30 6.29 5.94

8.93 8.81 8.79

8.75 8.66 8.45

7.98 7.93 7.59

1977--Jan. Feb. Mar.

4.61 4.68 4.69

4.62 4.67 4.60

4.72 4.76 4.75

4.61 4.58 4.58

4.68 4.70 4.72

6.22 6.44 6.47

8.48 8.55 8.68

7.83 7.98 8.06

4.60 4.66 4.70 4.74

4.74 4.64 4.62 4.67

4.80 4.78 4.75 4.75

4.70 4.61 4.50 4.50

4.80 4.75 4.63 4.63

6.54 6.39 6.35 6.51

8.09 8.19 8.29 8.14

8.72 8.67 8.69

1977--Feb.

8.08 8.22 8.25 8.15

2 9 16 23 30

4.68 4.63 4.62 4.77 4.74

4.70 4.64 4.59 4.57 4.59

4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75

4.63 4.63 4.63 4.50 4.50

4.77 4.77 4.75 4.63 4.70

6.49 6.50 6.46 6.44 6.45

6 13 20 27

4.60 4.65

4.56 4.58

4.75 4.75

4.58 4.58

4.63 4.70

6.45 6.27p

7.22 7.10p

7.72 6 7. 6p

7 14

4.65 4.64p

4.58 4.52

6.43 6 .07p

7.21 6.97p

7.72 7.57p

Mar.

Apr.

Daily--Apr.

5.19 5.00 4.64

5.14 5.10

4.75 4.75

8.18 8.28

8.68 8.70 8.65 8.65

8.12

8.17 8.26 -

8.65 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.70

8.27

8.30 8.23 8.22 8.26

8.32 8.27 8.28 8.28

8.26 8.23p

8.25 8.16p

8.52 8.58 8.66 8.70

7.95 7.92 7.96 7.99 8.06 8.08 8.08 8.02 8.06

5.79

8.75

8.72

8.01

5.70

n.a.

7.99

NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 through 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 11 and 12 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 13 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 14 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 15 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for shortterm forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling.

APPENDIX TABLE 1-A

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

15, 1977

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

BANK CREDIT MEASURES

BANK RESERVES V

APR.

Total

Period Total 1

Nonborrowed

Monetary Base

Adj. Credit proxy

Loans and Investments

M3 3

4 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

REVISED SERIES

ANNUALLY:

7.2 -0.5 1.3

1Y74 1975 1976

9.4 1.3 1.6

9.3 5.8 6.9

10.2 3.9 4.9

9.2 4.4 7.3

4.1

7.2 8.5 11.4

6.7 11.3 13.1

10.b 6.4 7.5

9.0 9.7 10.6

b.8 10.8 10.0

9.0 10.6 10.4

6.1

0.9

5.8

3.5

4.5

2.8

6.9

10.2

5.7

9.1

10.8

10.6

?.7

5.7 6.3

10.2 11.8

11.7 13.7

5.9

8.9 11.8

8.9 Iu.'f

9.2 11.0

8.5 5.5 7.9

b.8 4.9 7.7

9.1 10.4 12.8

10b7 12.9 14.1

6.6 5.7 11.9

9.0 9.9 13.5

9.0 9.Z 11.9

9.7 9.4 12.2

9.7

6.'

8.9

4.7

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF 1975

0.3

197b 197o

-1.4

WND QTK. 3RD QTR. 4TH OTR.

1976 1976 1976

3.1 0.6

2.5 1.3

7.6

7.7

IST QTR.

1977

1ST HALF MND HALF

-1.4

4.1

6.5 7.1

.. 7

QUARTtRLY:

-1.8

-2.4

8.2 6.1 8.0

4.0 1.8 11.5

5.2

2.9

11.'r

4.2

B.0

b.3

OUARTERLY-AV 2ND QTR. KD QTR. 4TH Q,.

1976 1976 1976

0.6 2.7 4.4

0.4 2.6 4.8

8.2 6.3 7.1

2.2 3.9 8.2

8.7 5.8 a.o

8.2 4.4 6.8

10.5 9.1 12.2

11.8 11.4 14.2

6.4

6.0 9.6

9.1 9.3 12.5

9.1 9.2 11.1

9.5 9.7 11.4

I&T QTR.

1977

2.7

2.6

6.8

5.3

8.9

4.d

9.4

11.0

8.7

10.5

9.0

9.3

7.2 11.2 8.0 5.4 6.5 6.6 5.1 7.1 9.1 7.7

1.2 2.1 -3.7 13.5 3.2 0.7 1.6 11.9 11.3 10.8

8.5 11.1 6.3 7.9 2.2 8.4 5.8 12.1 9.6 1.7

5.3 14.9 6.8 -1.2 7.1 5.9

7.8 14.1 8.9 4.3 12.0

1.6 14.1

0.4 8.5

10.0 15.7 9.9 12.5

10.1 14.1 10.5 7.1 12.8 12.3 13.3 16.7 12.2

7.8 10.9 7.4 8.6 11.7 7.0 8.6 14.5 10.5 10.4

7.6 11.2 8.2 9.3 12.1 7.2 8.7 14.6 11.0 10.8

10.7 -0.2 5.0

4.5

5.8 0.8 6.1

9.3 6.6 8.0

MONTHLY 1976--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. P NOTES: 1/ P -

-1.7 0.9 4.1 4.1 2.0 5.9 -6.2 6.0 11.8 4.9 10.9 -13.1

-0.7

1.3 1.6 3.7 1.8 7.0 -4.8

4.9 12.6

5.6 10.4 -13.3 -4.2

-2.9

8.9 1-t.5 10.7

8.8

13.0

3.8 9.4 3.9 6.4 8.9 2.0 6.2 13.2 9.1 13.0

11.2 8.8 8.9

8.1 6.4 5.9

7.4 11.1 7.3 8.3 10.8 7.9 10.8 15.1 11.5! 13.4 10.4 8.4 7.5

-3.0 7.1 I. L ____i I ___ ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS RELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, PRELIMINARY

8.9 8.2 7.5

8.5 8.1 7.4 &

SOLD

TO BANK-

APR.

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

15,

1977

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BANK CREDIT MEASURES

BANK RESERVES 1 Period Total 1

Nonbored borrowed

Monetary Monetary Base

Adj Credt proxy

Total Loans and Investments 5

MONEY STOCK MEASURES M

REVISED SERIES

ANNUALLY: 34,174 34,015 34,465

33,447 33,885 34,412

104,380 110,394 118,051

494.6 513.8 538.8

695.2 725.5 778.7

283.1 294.8 312.8

612.4 664.3 739.3

981.5 1092.6 1236.0

701.4 746.5 802.6

1070.5 1174.7 1299.3

1181.2 1308.4 1439.7

1221.6 1351.0 1491.0

1976--MAR.

33.519

33 465

111,707

516.3

737.7

298.1

682.6

1126.5

755.9

1199.8

1336.6

1380.1

APR. MAY JUNE

33,545 33,a61 33,776

33,501 33,546 3a,650

112,747 113,498 114,009

517.2 515.6 521.4

744.5 748.4 753.

301.8 303.! 303.2

690.6 695.7 696.2

1139.7 1149.7 1156.5

761.8 764.3 768.4

1210.9 1218.3 1226.7

1348.7 1357.0 1366.7

1393.0 1402.5 1413.4

JULY AUG. SEPT.

33,833 33,998 33,823

33,701 33,897 33,761

114,625 115,252 1150739

522.8 523.1 523.8

754.7 760.0 763.7

305.0 306.5 306.9

705.2 710.4 716.3

1168.8 1180.8 1193.9

774.1 775.4 779.4

1237.7 1245.8 1257.0

1380.0 1388.1 1398.0

1427.7 1436.3 1446.7

OCT. NOV. DEC.

33,992 34,325 34,465

33,898 34.253 34,412

116,424 117,303 118,051

529.0 534.0 538.8

771.4 777.6 778.7

310.5 310.6 312.8

725.7 731.7 739.3

1210.5 1222.8 1136.0

788.0 794.0 802.6

1272.8 1285.0 1299.3

1414.9 1427.3 1439.7

1464.3 1477.7 1491.0

1977--JAN. FbB. MAR.

34,778 34,397 34,310

34,710 34,326 34,207

119,101 119,079 119,573

540.8 539.5 542.7

784.5 794.0 801.1

314.3 314.5 316.1

745.0 749.1 754.1

1247.5 1256.6 1265.9

808.0 812.3 816.3

1310.6 1319.8 1328.1

1449.9 1459.7 1468.7

1502.1 1512.4 1521.8

9 16 23

34,545 34,437 34,200

34,470 34,308 34,164

118,879 119,010 119,234

538.8 540.9 538.9

314.4 315.5 314.5

748.2 750.1 749.7

811.7 813.7 812.8

MAR.

2 9 16 23 30P

34,346 34,048 34,242 34,139 34,762

34,316 34,028 34,218 33,801 34,704

119,244 118,837 119,355 119,524 120,567

540.3 541.0 543.6 543.6 541.2

313.9 315.6 317.2 316.0 314.9

749.6 752.4 755.0 754.7 754.1

812.2 814.8 817.0 816.5 816.6

APR.

34,586

34,521

120,299

546.5

319.9

760.9

823.4

1974 1975 1976

MONTHLY

WEEKLY

1977-FEB.

NOTESS

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLO TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGE. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS, M6, M7, 1OTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED LN DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESEKVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY

APR.

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

15,

1977

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits

Period

Currency

Total

ANNUALLY:

REVISED

1974 1975 1976

-Savings Bank &

Other Than CD's

Demand Deposits

Mutualr

Total

Savings

Other

SERIES

CD's

S&L

Credit Union Shares

Saa v

s s

Bonds

Short Term U.S.Gov't Securities

Sharesl 7

ommercal Paper

41.3 -7.8 -22.9

5.5 15.7 15.8

12.2 19.6 18.2

4.8 6.3 6.8

9.7 40.1 3.2

17.1 5.4 20.7

(Per cent annual rates of growth)

10.2 8.7 9.4

3.0 2.6 5.0

14.9 8.0 b.4

9.4 12.2 15.4

7.0 17.8 25.5

11.2 8.2 7.7

SEMI-ANNUALLYS 2ND

HALF

1975

7.9

1.0

7.7

10.4

16.0

6.1

-3.6

15.2

17.8

6.4

52.0

5.3

1ST HALF 2ND HALF

1976 1976

10.3 8.0

4.2 5.8

6.0 10.5

13.8 15.9

23.6 24.5

6.4 6.7

-29.0 -19.7

13.8 16.7

16.4 18.5

6.2 7.2

12.7 -5.9

19.2 20.1

QUARTERLY: 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TM QTR.

1976 1976 1976

9.5 8.8 7.1

5.8 3.7 7.7

6.6 6.2 14.6

11.1 14.5 16.7

13.6 19.0 28.7

8.9 10.8 6.5

-17.4 -40.5 1.3

12.7 16.9 15.9

15.1 17.9 18.2

6.4 8.1 6.2

12.9 -1.7 -10.2

28.4 17.1 22.2

1ST QTR.

1977

8.9

2.0

8.5

10.8

14.7

7.3

-7.0

11.8

15.4

6.7

-5.8

13.2

QUARTERLY-AV 2ND QIR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

1976 1976 1976

11.2 7.8 8.1

7.0 3.2 6.2

5.4 7.0 11.5

12.4 12.8 16.3

21.7 13.4 26.9

4.9 12.0 7.3

-30.1 -24.6 -18.9

13.5 14.6 17.2

16.5 15.9 18.5

5.9 7.5 6.8

11.8 10.3 -8.9

19.4 23.7 18.3

1ST OTR.

1977

8.5

3.6

11.3

12.7

20.5

6.1

1.9

13.2

16.7

6.7

-15.4

18.3

1976--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

11.2 14.3 11.0 3.1 9.3 7.7 9.2 9.1 7.5 4.5

3.2 15.1 5.3 -3.2 6.9 5.3 -1.1 15.8 -2.1 9.4

2.9 5.8 1.8 12.0 9.5 -0.3 9.2 12.7 14.8 15.9

9.8 14.0 9.9 9.2 15.2 11.4 16.3 17.0 17.3 15.1

23.3 22.1 18.3 0.0 11.4 21.9 22.e 30.0 26.2 28.0

-1.1 6.8 3.4 16.4 18.4 2.7 10.9 6.0 9.7 3.7

-31.8 -36.0 -43.8 28.0 -22.2 -67.9 -35.1 -15.2 -1.9 21.2

13.3 13.8 13.0 10.9 13.9 18.0 18.0 18.0 15.3 13.8

17.7 17.4 13.8 13.6 16.8 16.6 19.6 19.3 15.8 18.8

5.3 7.0 5.2 7.0 6.9 8.6 8.5 5.1 6.8 6.7

14.2 12.3 12.2 13.8 34.0 -11.6 -26.7 10.2 -3.4 -37.3

5.5 19.3 32.5 31. 23.1 15.1 12.4 17.2 4 .3 23.8

1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. P

10.4 10.3 5.9

4.7 -2.6 6.2

9.8 9.7 5.8

11.8 10.6 9.7

21.5 12.3 9.9

3.2 9.0 9.5

-3.8 3.8 -20.9

13.9 11.4 9.8

15.4 15.2 15.0

6.7 6.6 6.6

-26.3 5.4 3.6

18.7 11.5 9.1

MONTHLY:

1/ P -

GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY.

LEVELS

DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF

CURRENT

MONTH

AND END OF

APR.

15,

1977

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits Currec Currency

Peri

Demand Deposits

Total

Other Than CD's _Total

ISavings 5

CDs

Credit Union Sings Shares Bonds

Short Term U.S.

Com mercial

Non Deposit

Total Total Gov't

Gov't

Paper

Funds

Demand

1_posit

Sec 1

SharesI

Other 6

Mutual Savings Bank & S&L

REVISED SERIES ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976

67.8 73.7 80.6

215.3 221.0 232.1

418.3 451.7 489.8

329.3 369.6 426.5

136.2 160.5 201.4

193.1 209.0 225.1

89.0 82.1 63.3

341.5 395.2 457.8

27.6 33.0 39.0

63.3 67. 3 71.9

47.4 66.4 68.5

40.4 42.6 51.4

6.0 8.3 11.2

75.7

222.4

457.8

384.4

173.5

211.0

73.4

409.5

34.4

68.3

68.4

43.6

10.2

APR. MAY JUNE

76.6 77.3 77.5

225.2 226.2 225.6

460.0

388.9 392.1 395.1

176.7 179.4 179.4

212.2 212.8 215.7

71.2 68.6 70.2

414.2 418.7 422.5

34.9 35.3 35.7

68.7 69.0

69.1 69.8

69.4

70.6

44.3 45.5 46.7

7.6 7.9 9.8

JULY AUG. SEPT.

78.1

226.9 227.9 227.7

469.0 468.9

400.1 403.9 409.4

181.1 184.4 187.9

219.0 219.5 221.5

68.9

427.4

78.6 79.2

65.0

433.8 440.3

36.2 36.7 37.3

69.8 70.3 70.8

72.6 71.9 70.3

47.6 48.2

63.1

10.1 12.6 12.0

OCT. NOV. DEC.

79.11 80.3 80.6

,30.7 230.3 232.1

477.5

415.2 421.2 426.5

192.6 196.8 201.4

222.6 224.4 225.1

62.3 62.2 63.3

446.9 452.6 457.8

37.9

70.9 70.7 68.5

49.4 50.4 51.4

13.2

39.0

71.1 71.5 71.9

81.3 82.0 82.4

233.0 232.5 233.7

493.8

205.0 207.1 208.8

225.7 227.4 229.2

6.11 63.3 62.2

463.1 467.5 471.3

39.5 40.0 40.5

72.3 72.7 73.1

67.0

500.2

430.7 434.5 438.0

52.2 52.7 53.1

10.0 11.7 11.2

9 16 23

81.8 61.8 82.3

232.6 233.7 232.2

497.3 498.2

433.8 434.6

498.4

435.2

206.7 207.0 207.4

227.1 227.5 227.8

63.5 63.7 63.1

12.3 11.7 11.7

2 9 16

231.9 233.3 234.9 233.5 232.0

498.3

499.2 499.7 500.5 501.7

435.6 436.9 437.8 438.7 439.2

207.6 208.5 208.7 209.2

228.0 228.4 229.1 229.8 230.0

62.7 62.4

30P

82.1 82.3 82.3 82.5 82.9

61.8 62.5

11.6 11.5 12.1 11.2 9.7

83.1

236.8

503.5

441.0

209.5

231.5

62.5

8.6

MONTHLYs 1976--MAR.

1977--JAN. FEB. MAR.P

460.7

465.3

472.5

483.4

489.8

497.8

38.4

67.3

67.5

48.7

13.0 11.2

MEEKLY: 1977-FEB.

MAR.

23 APR.

1/ 2/ P -

208.9

62.0

ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT IMONTH AND END OF INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY

MONTH

REPORTED DATA.

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1977, April 18). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770419

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19770419,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1977},
  month = {Apr},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770419},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}