bluebooks · May 16, 1977

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

May 13,

1977

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I

May 13,

1977

- FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Recent developments (1)

M 1 increased at a record 19¾ per cent annual rate in

April, and growth for the April-May period is projected at a 12¼ per cent annual rate--2¼ percentage points above the upper end of the Committee's desired range.

M 2 appears to be expanding at about a 9.1

per cent annual rate over April and May, below the mid-point of the Committee's range, reflecting a further moderation in the growth of the interest bearing component of this aggregate.

Nonborrowed

reserves expanded substantially in April, reflecting the sharp expansion of demand deposits early in the month, but are likely to show little net change on balance in May, partly in lagged response to recent declines in demand deposits.

Growth in Monetary Aggregates over April-May period (SAAR in per cent)

Ranges

Latest Estimates

6 to 10

12.3

8 to 12

Memorandum: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

9.1 Avg. for statement week ending 4.71 Apr. 20 4.82 27 5.15 4 May 11 5.31

-2(2)

In response to very rapid growth of M1 in the early weeks

of April, the Desk became somewhat less generous in its provision of nonborrowed reserves in the statement week following the April FOMC meeting, expecting the Federal funds rate to average 4-3/4 per cent or slightly higher.

Over following statement weeks, the Desk raised its funds rate

target first to around 5 per cent and then to around 5-1/4 per cent, as incoming data indicated that M1 was apparently growing at rates well above the Committee's range, while M 2 growth was near the mid-point of its range. per cent.

In the latest statement week the funds rate averaged 5.31 With the rise in the funds rate, member bank borrowing at the

discount window has increased since the April FOMC meeting to averages of $214 million and $154 million, respectively, in the last two statement weeks. (3)

Since the April FOMC meeting short-term market rates

generally have increased by around 1/2 percentage point, and most recently, a number of major banks have raised the prime loan rate from 6-1/4 per cent

to 6-1/2 per cent.

Business demands for short-term funds have been

quite strong over this period.

Business loans at banks increased at a

12-1/4 per cent annual rate in April--exceeding the rapid first quarter pace--and commercial paper issued by finance companies and nonfinancial corporations expanded more sharply than in any month since 1974.

Upward

pressures on short-term rates, however, were tempered by the improved Treasury financial position which has permitted a paydown of Treasury bills amounting to $4.5 billion thus far in the second quarter.

(4)

Long-term interest rates have increased from 10 to

20 basis points since the April FOMC meeting.

Upward pressures on

long rates have been moderated by a significant cutback in publicly offered corporate bonds--though both private placements of corporate issues and bonds issued by municipalities have remained relatively large.

In addition, the Treasury paid down debt of around $400 million

in its mid-May refunding and has announced an additional run-off of $500 million in the 2-year notes scheduled to be refinanced right after the May FOMC meeting. (5)

In its May refunding the Treasury reopened securities

first issued in last February's refunding, auctioning $2.85 billion of 7¼ per cent 6¾ year notes and $1.0 billion of 7-5/8 per cent 29¾ year bonds.

Bidding in the auctions for both issues was relatively aggressive

and average auction rates were set within a few basis points of levels on outstanding issues.

Dealers have distributed essentially all of

their awards, and both new offerings are currently quoted at close to issue price. (6)

The table on the following page shows (in terms of

percentage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods.

1975 & 1976 Average

Past Twelve Months Apr. '77 over Apr. '76

Past Six Months Apr. '77 over Oct. '76

Past Three Months Apr. '77 over Jan. '77

Nonborrowed reserves

1.4

3.3

4.2

-1.1

14.3

Total reserves

0.4

3.4

4.1

-1.1

13.2

Monetary Base

6.5

7.1

7.4

5.5

11.8

5.2

6.5

7.0

8.9

19.7

10.4

10.1

9.3

13.0

institutions)

13.0

12.2

11.4

10.2

12.4

(M2 plus CD's)

7.2

8.2

9.1

7.9

11.3

M 5 (M3 plus CD's)

10.7

9.2

11.3

4.5

5.6

6.5

4.1

7.5

6.0

8.9

10.1

13.2

13.9

-1.1

-0.8

-0.1

-0.5

-0.6

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1.2

Past Month Apr. '77 over Mar. '77

Concepts of Money M 1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M 3 (2 M4

plus deposits at thrift

Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of

commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series tIen reserve requirements are changed.

-5Prospective developments (7)

Summarized below for Committee consideration are

alternative short-run operating specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate.

(Detailed data are shown in

the tables on pp. 6 and 7). Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Ranges for May-June

½-4½

1½-5½

1-5

4-8

3½-7½

2¾-6¾

4¼-5¼

4¾-5¾

5¼-6¼

Federal funds rate (intermeeting period) (8)

Under all alternatives, we expect M1 growth to slow

markedly over the next several weeks from the April pace.

The

extremely large M1 expansion last month appears to have provided the public with sufficient cash to accommodate much of their increased transactions needs in the second quarter, when nominal GNP is projected to expand at about a 14 per cent annual rate.

A growth range of

1 to 5 per cent for the May-June period is projected under alternative B, assuming the Federal funds rate remains around 5¼ per cent--the midpoint of a 4¾-5¾ per cent range.

For the second quarter as a whole,

M1 growth would be around a 9¼ per cent annual rate, well above the 4.8 per cent rate of the first quarter. (9)

Under alternative B, we would expect M2 to expand in

a 3½-7½ per cent annual rate range in the May-June period.

The time

and savings deposit component of M 2 is expected to expand somewhat

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1

1977

1978

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

April

321.3

May June

322.6 323.1

322.6 322.9

322.6 322.6

315.0

QII

322.3

322.2

QIII QIV

326.2 329.9

325.4 329.1

324.6 328.4

332.3

4.9 1.9

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

762.4

1279.3

765.6 770.0

765.6 769.4

765.6 768.4

1287.4 1296.5

1287.4 1295.8

1287.4 1294.6

749.4

1256.8

766.0

765.8

765.5

1287.7

1287.5

1287.1

781.0 794.5

779.2 792.8

776.7 790.5

1316.7 1341.6

1314.1 1339.2

1310.7 1336.5

332.3

805.2

805.4

805.1

1362.2

1362.6

1362.4

4.9 1.1

4.9 0.0

5.0 6.9

5.0 6.0

5.0 4.4

7.6 8.5

7.6 7.8

7.6 6.7

Growth Rates Monthly: 1977

May June

Quarterly Average: 1977

QI QII QIII QIV

4.8 9.3 4.8 4.5

4.8 9.3 3.8 4.5

4.8 9.1 3.0 4.7

9.4 8.9 7.8 6.9

9.4 8.8 7.0 7.0

9.4 8.6 5.9 7.1

11.0 9.8 9.0 7.6

11.0 9.8 8.3 7.6

11.0 9.6 7.3 7.9

1978

2.9

3.9

4.8

5.4

6.4

7.4

6.1

7.0

7.8

Semi-annual QI '77-QIII '77

7.1

6.6

6.1

8.4

8.0

7.3

9.5

9.1

8.6

QIII '77-QI '78

3.7

4.2

4.7

6.2

6.7

7.3

6.9

7.4

7.9

Annual QI '77-QI '78

5.5

7.4

7.5

7.4

8.4

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy

M4 Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1977

April May June

824.0 826.6 830.9

824.0 826.6 830.5

824.0 826.6 830.0

1340.9 1348.3 1357.4

1340.9 1348.3 1356.8

1340.9 1348.3 1356.1

546.3 544.8 548.2

546.3 544.8 547.9

546.3 544.8 547.7

1977

QI QII QIII QIV

812.2 827.2 842.6 861.5

812.2 827.0 841.3 860.6

812.2 826.9 839.7 859.1

1319.7 1348.9 1378.3 1408.6

1319.7 1348.7 1376.2 1407.0

1319.7 1348.4 1373.8 1405.1

541.1 546.4 556.5 570.8

541.1 546.3 555.7 570.4

541.1 546.3 555.0 569.7

1978

882.0

882.5

1439.0

1439.7

1439.8

588.8

589.2

589.3

3.8 6.2

3.8 5.7

3.8 4.9

6.6 8.1

6.6 7.6

6.6 6.9

-3.3 7.5

-3.3 6.8

-3.3 6.4

Growth Rates Monthly: 1977

May June

Quarterly Averages: 1977

QI QII QIII QIV

8.7 7.4 7.4 9.0

8.7 7.3 6.9 9.2

8.7 7.2 6.2 9.2

10.6 8.9 8.7 8.8

10.6 8.8 8.2 9.0

10.6 8.7 7.5 9.1

5.4 3.9 7.4 10.3

5.4 3.8 6.9 10.6

5.4 3.8 6.4 10.6

1978

9.5

10.2

10.9

8.6

9.3

9.9

12.6

13.2

13.8

Semi-annual QI '77-QIII '77 QIII '77-QI '78

7.5 9.4

7.2 9.8

6.8 10.2

8.9 8.8

8.6 9.2

8.2 9.6

5.7 11.6

5.4 12.1

5.1 12.4

Annual QI '77-QI '78

9.1

8.6

8.0

10.5

9.7

8.9

7.9

7.5

6.9

FOMC longer-run range QI '77-QI '78

8.6

8.7

9.0

9.1

8.8

8.9

more rapidly over the weeks ahead than during the recent past. In the course of April, growth in consumer-type time and savings deposits appears to have been restrained by relatively large nonwithheld tax payments by individuals.

Still, growth in the weeks ahead

is likely to be slower than the pace during the first quarter in view of the higher level of short- and intermediate-term market rates now prevailing. (10)

It appears that market rates have largely adjusted to

a Federal funds rate of around 5¼ per cent.

However, some further

minor upward adjustments in market rates could develop between now and the next Committee meeting even if the funds rate remains unchanged. The Treasury may not be in a position to continue paying off bills in the weekly and monthly auctions after the end of May, and private short-term credit demands are expected to remain generally strong. If the upward adjustments that have already occurred in the commercial paper rate are sustained, a further rise in the bank prime rate is possible within the next few weeks. (11)

We would expect the funds rate and other interest

rates, particularly short-term rates, to rise substantially after midyear, as the demands for money and credit continue to be generally strong and the Treasury once again becomes a sizable net borrower. By the first quarter of 1978, the staff anticipates a funds rate of around 7 per cent under alternative B, if M1 growth is to be near the mid-point of the Committee's 4 -6

per cent range for the QI'77-QI'78

-9period.

This is a somewhat higher funds rate than the funds rate

projected for the first quarter of 1976 in the previous bluebook. This upward revision reflects the need for greater restraint in M growth over the last three quarters of the target period in view of the 9¼ per cent annual growth rate in M1 now expected for the second quarter.

With the somewhat higher interest rates anticipated,

inflows of interest-bearing deposits in M 2 and M3 would probably slow, and growth in these aggregates over the QI '77-QI '78 period may be around the lower ends of their longer run ranges. (12)

Alternative C contemplates a tightening in money

market conditions over the next few weeks while alternative A involves an easing.

Under alternative C the Federal funds rate would be expected

to rise to the mid-point of a 5¼-6¼ per cent range.

This may be a

accompanied by growth in M1 in the May-June period at an annual rate in a range of ½-4½ per cent--about ½ point slower than under alternative B.

The immediate retarding effect on M 2 is expected to be somewhat

greater under alternative C.

With the funds rate rising to around 5¾

per cent, the 3-month bill rate may adjust up to the 5½-5¾ per cent area.

Such a substantial further rise in short-term rates to a level

well above the ceiling rate on savings deposits is likely to trigger a sizable outflow of savings funds to market instruments. (13)

The increases in short-term rates under alternative C

would probably also be accompanied by a fairly prompt return to ceiling rates on time deposits at those banks and thrift institutions that

had lowered offering rates previously.

Banks may also begin to

press CD offerings more consistently on the market, partly to lock in funds at current interest costs.

Depository institutions are

likely to raise their lending rates on business loans and mortgages. Moreover--with outstanding mortgage commitments at record levels-thrifts are likely to become considerably more cautious in making new commitments.

In bond markets, rates may show some increase, but

these increases may be limited by the continued large volume of institutional funds seeking long-term outlets and by any effect that a tightening of the money market may have in dampening inflationary expectations. (14)

An immediate tightening of the money market, such as

is called for under alternative C, would probably reduce somewhat the level to which the funds rate would have to rise ultimately to restrain monetary growth to within the FOMC's longer-run ranges.

We would

expect the funds rate to peak at around 6¾ per cent in the winter of this year. (15)

The near-term easing of the money market under

alternative A would probably stimulate a substantial rally in debt markets, particularly in light of the sizable short position of U.S. Government security dealers in coupon issues.

The staff would not

expect any decline in the funds rate to be sustainable, given the strong growth in nominal GNP that is projected.

A subsequent rather

sharp rise in the funds rate would seem to be required under the circumstances to keep monetary growth rates within their longer-run ranges.

-11Directive language (16)

Given below are alternatives for the operational paragraphs

of the directive.

The first formulation, like the directive adopted at

the last meeting, places main emphasis on near-term rates of growth in monetary aggregates;

it shows--in strike-through form--the specifications

adopted at the last meeting (except that the upper limit shown for the funds rate range--5-1/2 per cent--reflects the modification agreed upon on May 6).

The second formulation places main emphasis on money market

conditions.

As suggested below, the particular language needed in the

opening lines of the money market formulation would depend on the specific conditions sought; the three alternatives shown--calling, respectively, for somewhat easier, prevailing, and somewhat firmer money market conditions--are intended to be associated with the specifications discussed in the preceding section under alternatives A, B, and C. "Monetary Aggregates" Formulation The Committee seeks to encourage near-term rates of growth in M-1 and M-2 on a path believed to be reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph.

Specifically, at present, it expects the annual

growth rates over the[DEL: April-May]MAY-JUNE period to be within the ranges of [DEL: 6 to 10] ____ ____

to ____

per cent for M-2.

per cent for M-1 and [DEL: 8 to 12] In the judgment of the Com-

mittee such growth rates are likely to be associated with a weekly average Federal funds rate of about [DEL: 4-3/4] ____

per cent.

If,

-12giving approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period will deviate significantly from the midpoints of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range

of[DEL: 4-1/2 to

5-1/2]____

____

per cent. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. "Money Market" Formulation At this time, the Committee seeks to maintain about the prevailing money market conditions (or to achieve somewhat easier or somewhat firmer money market conditions) during the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at approximately the rates currently expected, which are believed to be on a path reasonably consistent with the longerrun ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph.

Specifically, the Committee seeks to maintain the weekly

average Federal funds rate at about ____

per cent, so long

as M-1 and M-2 appear to be growing over the May-June period period at annual rates within ranges of ____ cent and ____

to ____

per cent, respectively.

per

If, giving

-13approximately equal weight to M-l and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period are approaching or moving beyond the limits of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the weekly average Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of ____

to ____

per cent.

If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee.

Appendix I

Expansion in Reserves Over the Period From QI '77 to QIII '77 Consistent With Proposed Alternatives (Seas. adj. annual rates) Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Nonborrowed Reserves

0.5

1.2

0.0

Total Reserves

5.0

4.7

4.4

Monetary Base

7.7

7.6

7.5

On average, thus far in the second quarter nonborrowed reserves have grown at a 3.4 per cent annual rate from the first quarter of 1977 and total reserves have increased at a 3.7 per cent annual rate.

The growth in nonborrowed reserves is above, and the

growth in total reserves below, longer-run growth rates shown for these reserve aggregate measures in the table above.

Growth of

nonborrowed reserves is expected to moderate in the months ahead as the System provides less reserves through Desk operations and banks borrow more through the discount window.

Demand for borrowings is

expected to be greater over the months ahead, given the present

discount rate and expectations of a rising Federal funds rate, and growth in total reserves may be accelerating somewhat.

Growth in the

monetary base has averaged 7.0 per cent thus far in the second quarter, near the longer-run growth rate shown for this aggregate.

Appendix II

Projected Federal Funds Rate

1977

1978

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

4-7/8

5-1/8

5-3/8

QIII

QIV

QII

Appendix III Implied Velocity Growth Rates X1

(GNP/M)

1977

1978

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

4.0

III

6.5

7.5

8.3

7.6

7.5

7.2

8.9

8.0

7.1

4.5

4.6

III

4.3

5.4

5.1

5.0

5.5

4.4

V2 (GNP/M2 ) 1977

1978

CHART 1

5/13/77

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 340

S( -

320

-300

ER MONEY SUPPLY M2

1975

1976

1977

CHART 2

5/13/77

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1 550

530

510

500

RESERVES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 37 S

TOTAL

1975

1976

1977

CHART 3

5/13/77

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES ONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

PER CENT

INTEREST RATES Short-term

PER CENT -- 9

INTEREST RATES Long-term

PER CENT

-6

F.R. DISCOUNT RATE

L5 FUNDS RATE

RESERVES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I1 )WED

D -1

1975

1976

1977

1975

1976

1977

1975

1976

1977

Table 1

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES

MAY

13,

1977

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Narrow Broad (Ml) (M2)

Period

MONTHLY

Adjusted Credit Proxy

Total U S. Govt. Depositsj

Total

Time and Savings Deposits Other Than CD'S Other Total Savings 8

CD'S

Nondeposit Member Sources of U.S.Govt. Funds Deposits

314.5 316.1 321.3 (322.6)

749.1 754.2 762.4 (765.6)

539.5 542.9 546.3 (544.8)

11.7 11.2 10.8 ( 10.5)

497.8 500.2 502.7 (504.0)

434.5 438.0 441.1 (443.1)

207.1 208.8 210.2 (211.5)

227.4 229.2 230.9 (231.6)

4.9 7.7 4.2

10.4 12.8 8.1

1.8 11.5 3.0

6.2 14.6 8.5

14.5 16.7 10.8

19.0 28.7 14.7

10.8 6.5 7.3

-40.5 1.3 -7.0

4.4 6.8 4.8

9.1 12.2 9.4

3.9 8.2 5.4

7.0 11.5 11.3

12.8 16.3 12.7

13.4 26.9 20.5

12.0 7.3 6.1

-24.6 -18.9 1.9

(

0.8 6.1 19.7 4.9)

(

6.6 8.2 13.0 5.0)

(

-2.9 7.6 7.5 -3.3)

(

12.3 9.9 8.0 7.4)

(

12.3)

(

9.1)

(

2.1)

(

7.8)

1 LLVELS-SBIL

1977--FB. MAR. APR. MAY

63.3 62.2 61.6 ( 61.0)

(

7.5 7.7 7.7 7.6)

(

2.5 2.8 3.6 2.5)

% ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976-3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1977-1ST QTR. QUARTERLY-AV 1976-3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1977-1ST QTR. MONTHLY 1977-FEB. MAR. APR. MAY APR.-MAY

(

9.7 5.8 6.0 3.1)

(

10.6 9.7 8.5 5.4)

(

4.61

(

7.0)

(

9.0 9.5 8.9 3.6)

3.8 -20.9 -11.6 ( -11.7)

(

6.3)

( -11.6)

WEEKLY LEVELS-$BIL 1977-APR.

6 13 20 27

320.3 321.4 321.0 322.8

761.3 763.0 761.7 764.0

546.7 547.1 547.9 545.6

8.7 10.6 13.4 10.6

503.5 503.2 502.0 502.5

441.1 441.6 440.7 441.3

209.8 210.4 210.0 210.3

231.3 231.2 230.7 230.9

62.4 61.6 61.3 61.2

7.4 7.8 7.9 7.9

2.6 2.8 6.4 2.9

MAY

321.2

762.6

544.5

11.6

502.7

441.4

210.7

230.7

61.3

7.3

2.8

NOTE: 1/ P -

DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL PRELIMINARY ,

RESERVE BANKS.

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 2

BANK RESERVES

MAY 13, 1977

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period

MONTHLY

REQUIRED RESERVES

Total Reserves

Nonborrowed Reserves

Monetary Base

Total Required

Private Demand

Total Time Deposits

Gov't. and Interbank

LEVELS-SMILLIONS 34,397 34,308 34,685 (34,740)

1977--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY

34,326 34,204 34,612 134,581)

119,079 119,573 120,750 (121,409)

349199 34,093 34,494 (34,580)

20,416 20,403 20,608 120,761)

12,059 12,123 12,162 (12,0971

1,724 1,567 1,724 ( 1,722)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976-3RD QTR.

0.6

1.3

6.1

0.7

3.8

-5.2

47H QTR.

7.6

7.7

8.0

6.8

1.6

8.0

-1.8

-2.4

5.2

-1.1

3.7

6.9

1976--3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

2.7 4.4

2.6 4.8

6.3 7.1

2.4 4.0

3.0 3.2

-0.7 -0.7

1977--1ST QTR.

2.7

2.6

6.8

3.0

5.0

9.5

1977--1ST QTR. QUARTERLY-AV

MONTHLY -13.1 -3.1 13.2 ( 1.9)

1977--FEB. MAR APR. MAY APR.-MAY

(

7.6)

-13.3 -4.3 14.3 I -1.1) 1

6.6)

-0.2 5.0 11.8 6.51

-10.9 -3.7 14.1 3.01

9.2)

(

8.6)

-12.7 -0.8 12.1 ( 8.9)

(

1.5 6.4 3.9 -6.4)

(

-1.3)

10.5)

WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1977-APR.

MAY

NOTEs

6 13 20 27

34,512 34,229 34,755 34,947

34,447 34,191 34,726 34,848

120,273 119,862 120,890 121,543

34,256 33,955 34,721 34,782

20,495 20,180 20,744 20,923

12,148 12,180 12,211 12.146

1,612 1 594 1, 76b 1,713

4 11

35,324 34,635

35,110 34,479

121,592 120,812

35,029 34,653

20,783 20.886

12,072 12,056

2174 1,711

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO.

TABLE 3 1/ NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES($ millions, not seasonally adjusted)

Treasury Bills Net Change 2/

Period

Within 1 year

-490 7,232 1,280 -468 863

Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Over 1 - 5 5 - 10 10

Total

789 579 797 3,284 3,025

539 500 434 1,510 1,048

167 129 196 1,070 642

1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187

Within 1 year

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MAY 13, 1977

Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Over 1 - 5 5 - 10 10 592 400 1,665 824 469

Total

Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/

1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891

1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227

-1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607

1,022 3,371 1,398 436

1,256 1,654 392 304

-363 2,067 45 -886

115 109

554 796

226 245

156 134

1,052 1,284

171 77

881 794

345 232

160 192

1,557 1,294

1,164

192

997

325

165

1,680

1976--Nov. Dec.

-733 -570

113

266

681

170

119

1,029

1977--Jan. Feb. Mar.

2,222 -691 -368

45 L07 41

475 348 174

128 151 46

48 81 37

695 687 298

--- --- ----

Apr.

1,392

327

104

489

173

138

--- --- --- --- -------

----

174

298

---327

---104

1976--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr.

I II III IV

1977--Qtr. I

1977--Mar.

Apr.

May

LEVEL May I/ 2/ 3/ / 5/ /

2 9 16 23 30

-253 -368

6 13 20 27

-151 -109 585 784

4 11 18 25

533 245

11 (in billions)

S 41 --

41.6

--38 S -

10.5

30.9

10.0

5.5

Net RP's 6/

2,738

-4,771

-377 403

-3,930 5,976

--- 2,908 -45 -125

-6,877 1,931 175

346

2,176

2,822

----

--- -278 -371

-25

-3,071 -3,576 -2,310

288 -6 -6

-4,210

--------

----

572 1,258

-9,141 7,954 3,549 822

866 227

2,779 -2,892

56.9

1.4

3.5

1.4

105.6

3.1

--489

115

7.1

-177

-117

9,665

Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemption (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC MAY 13, 1977

TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars)

U.S. Govt. Security

Dealer Positions

Underwriting

Syndicate Positions Corporate Municipal Bonds Bonds (4) (3)

(FR)

Bank Reserve Positions

_Member

Borrowinz at FRB**

Basic Reserve Deficit

Excess** Reserves (5)

Total (6)

Seasonal (7)

8 New York

38 Others

Bills (1)

Coupon Issues (2)

1976--High Low

8,896 3,668

3,046 175

334 0

343 34

655 -180

242 24

34 8

-8,161 -2,367

-12,744 - 6,908

1977--High Low

7,234 *1,729

3,017 *199

163 17

350 125

513 -111

339 20

18 8

-8,742 -4,293

-13,9?5 - 9,010

1976--Apr. May. June

5,570 4,239 4,996

605 591 582

69 95 100

133 199 196

155 210 214

43 114 127

10 11 20

-5,179 -4,402 -4,219

-10,783 - 8,151 - 9,158

July Aug. Sept.

5,743 6,174 7,838

904 1,686 1,509

106 85 95

211 116 172

234 207 205

132 100 63

25 31 31

-4,756 -4,624 -5,703

- 9,399 - 9,691 - 9,716

Oct.

6,271

1,832

258

221

-6,428

-10,527

Nov. Dec.

6,876 8,005

2,418 2,443

79 145

217 167

257 274

72 53

22 13

-6,289 -7,168

-11,618 -11,449

1977--Jan. Feb. Mar.

6,406 4,450 4,906

2,320 1,605 972

82 72 103

202 226 162

265 198 214

68 72 103

10 12 13

-6,421 -5,604 -5,661

-11,504 -11,503 -10,912

Apr.

*4,567

*696

101

173

192p

14p

-6,586

-11,409

2 9 16 23

4,232 5,174 5,342 4,814

913 354 303 275

63 111 163 51

155 137 163 180

150 273 168 77

30 20 24 338

12 12 12 13

-4,716 -6,353 -6,912 -5,079

-10,869 -11,550 -11,527 -11,539

3,140

453

125

175

354

-4,933

- 9,318

Apr.

6 13 20 27

6,208 6,670 *6,025 *1,729

761 453 *1,103 *582

39 0 231 34

232 144 125 192

256 274 34 165p

65 38 29 99p

14 13 14 15p

-5,652 -7,445 -7,119 -5,518

-11,318 -13,727 -11,568 - 9,122

May

4 11 18 25

*2,474 *2,778

*421 *199

350 175p

295p -26p

214p 155p

18p 22p

-5,581p -7,410p

- 9,299p -10,790p

1977--Mar.

33 35p

73p

NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MAY 13, 1977

TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent)

Federal Funds

Short-term Treasury Bills Commercial Paper 90-Day 1-Year 90-119 Day

CD's New Issue-NYC 90-Day

60-Day

U.S. Govt.-Constant Maturity Yields 3-yr 7-yr 20-yr

Long-term Corp.-Aaa Utility Municipal New Recently Bond Issue Offered Buyer

Home Mortgages Primary Secondary Market Cony. FNMA Auc. GNMA Sec.

(15)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

(13)

1976--High Low

5.58 4.63

5.53 4.27

6.32 4.62

5.90 4.63

5.63 4.40

5.75 4.50

7.52 5.65

7.89 6.33

8.17 7.23

8.95 7.93

8.94 7.84

7.13 5.83

9.10 8.70

8.45 7.57

1977--High Low

5.31 4.47

4.87 4.41

5.41 4.67

5.05 4.63

5.00 4.48

5.13 4.63

6.59 5.83

7.33 6.59

7.79 7.26

8.33 7.90

8.35 7.95

5.93 5.68

8.78 8.65

8.08 7.56

1976--Apr. May June

4.82 5.29 5.48

4.86 5.20 5.41

5.54 5.98 6.12

5.08 5.44 5.83

4.81 5.25 5.55

4.94 5.38 5.68

6.84 7.27 7.32

7.44 7.77 7.76

7.86 8.13 8.03

8.48 8.82 8.72

8.52 8.77 8.73

6.60 6.87 6.87

8.73 8.77 8.85

8.89 9.09 9.13

8.10 8.33 8.35

July Aug. Sept.

5.31 5.29 5.25

5.23 5.14 5.08

5.82 5.64 5.50

5.54 4.35 5.33

5.30 5.23 5.11

5.42 5.31 5.24

7.12 6.86 6.66

7.70 7.58 7.41

8.00 7.91 7.78

8.63 8.52 8.29

8.63 8.50 8.33

6.79 6.61 6.51

8.93 9.00 8.98

9.05 8.99 8.88

8.37 8.30 8.10

Oct.

5.03 4.95 4.65

4.92 4.75 4.35

5.19 5.00 4.64

5.10 4.98 4.66

4.90 4.84 4.48

5.04 4.94 4.50

6.24 6.09 5.68

7.16 6.86 6.37

7.70 7.64 7.30

8.25 8.17 7.94

8.24 8.18 7.93

6.30 6.29 5.94

8.93 8.81 8.79

8.75 8.66 8.45

7.98 7.93 7.59

4.61 4.68 4.69

4,62 4.67 4.60

5.00 5.16 5.19

4.72 4.76 4.75

4.61 4.58 4.58

4.68 4.70 4.72

6.22 6.44 6.47

6.92 7.16 7.20

7.48 7.64 7.73

8.08 8.22 8.25

8.09 8.19 8.29

5.87 5.89 5.89

8.72 8.67 8.69

8.48 8.55 8.68

7.83 7.98 8.06

4.73

4.54

5.10

4.75

4.57

4.67

6.32

7.11

7.67

8.26

8.22

5.73

8.75

8.67

7.96

4.70 4.64 4.59 4.57 4.59

5.25 5.23 5.17 5.16 5.18

4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75

4.63 4.63 4.63 4.50 4.50

4.77 4.77 4.75 4.63 4.70

6.49 6.50 6.46 6.44 6.45

7.22 7.23 7.17 7.18 7.22

7.75 7.76 7.72 7.71 7.74

-8.30 8.23 8.22 8.26

8.27 8.32 8.27 8.28 8.28

5.92

8.65

8.06

5.92

8.70

8.66

8.08

16 23 30

4.68 4.63 4.62 4.77 4.74

5.90

8.70

8.08

5.88

8.70

8.02

5.85

8.70

8.06

6 13 20 27

4.60 4.65 4.71 4.82

4.56 4.58 4.51 4.50

5.14 5.10 4.99 5.13

4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75

4.58 4.58 4.50 4.63

4.63 4.70 4.67 4.70

6.45 6.22 6.23 6.38

7.22 7.06 7.04 7.14

7.72 7.65 7.62 7.69

8.26 8.25 8.21 8.31

8.25 8.16 8.21 8.25

4 11 18 25

5.15 5.31

4.65 4.87

5.24 5.41

4.83 5.05

4.65 5.00

4,80 5.13

6.49 6 .59p

7.27 7.33p

7.74 7.79p

-8.33p

8.33 8.35p

5 12

5.21 5.33p

4.74 5.00

5.29 5.49

4.88 5.25

6.50 6.60p

7.27 7.33p

7.74 7.78p

Nov.

Dec. 1977--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. 1977--Mar.

2 9

Apr.

May

Daily--May

(14)

5.79

8.75

8.72

8.01

5.70

8.75

7.99

5.73

8.78

8.62

7.89

5.68

8.78

7.96

5.76 5.82

8.78 n.a.

8.70

8.06 -

8.08

NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 through 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 11 and 12 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 13 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 14 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 15 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMAyields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for Immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling.

APPENDIX TABLE 1-A

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

Period Total

Nonborrowed

Monetary Base

1977

Total

Ad.

Loans

Credit proxy

and Invest. ments

13,

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

CREDIT MEASURES

SBANK BANK RESERVES V

MAY

..Percent annual rate ofr

M2 7

owth)

ANNUALLY:

7.2 -0.5 1.3

1974 1975 1976

9.4 1.3 1.6

9.3 5.8 6.9

0.9

5.8 6.5 7.1

9.2 4.4 7.3

4.7 4.1 6.1

7.2 8.5 11.3

6.7 11.3 13.1

9.0 9.7 10.6

8.8 10.8 10.0

9.0 10.6 10.4

3.5

4.5

2.8

6.9

10.2

9.1

10.8

10.6

3.0 6.7

7.7 6.7

5.7 6.3

10.2 11.8

11.7 13.8

8.9 11.8

8.9 10.7

9.2 11.0

8.5 5.5 7.9

6.8 4.9 7.7

9.1 10.4 12.8

10.7 12.9 14.1

9.0 9.9 13.5

9.0 9.2 11.9

9.7 12.3

4.2

8.1

9.7

9.0

9.1

8.9

10.2 3.9 4.9

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF

0.3

1975

1ST HALF 1976 2ND HALF 1976

4.1

-1.4 4.5

3.1 O.6 7.6

2.2 1.3 7.7

-1.4

QUARTERLY: 2ND QTR. 1976 3RD QTR. 1976 4TH QTR. 1976 1ST QTR.

-2.4

-1.8

1977

8.2 6.1 8.0

4.0 1.8 11.5

5.2

3.0

11.5

9.4

QUARTERLY-AV9 2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH OTR.

1976 1976 1976

0.6 2.7 4.4

0.4 2.6 4.8

8.2 6.3 7.1

2.2 3.9 8.2

8.7 5.8 8.6

8.2 4.4 6.8

10.5 9.1 12.2

11.8 11.4 14.2

9.1 9.3 12.5

9.1 9.2 11.1

9.5 9.7 11.4

1ST QTR.

1977

2.7

2.6

6.8

5.4

B.9

4.8

9.4

11.0

10.6

10.1

0.9 4.1 4.1 2.0 5.9 -6.2 6.0 11.6 4.9

1.3 1.6 3.7 1.8 7.0 -4.8 4.9 12.6 5.6

11.2 8.0 5.4 6.5 6.6 5.1 7.1 9.1 7.7

2.1 -3.7 13.5 3.2 0.7 1.6 11.9 11.3 10.8

11.1 6.3 7.9 2.2 8.4 5.8 12.1 9.6 1.7

14.9 6.8 -1.2 7.1 5.9 1.6 14.1 0.4 8.5

14.1 8.9 4.3 12.0 8.8 10.0 15.7 9.9 12.5

14.1 10.5 7.1 12.8 12.3 13.3 16.7 12.2 13.1

11.1 7.3 8.3 10.8 7.9 10.8 15.1

10.9 7.4 8.6 11.1 7.0 8.6 14.5 10.5 10.4

11.2 t.2 9.3

10.7 -0.2 5.0 11.8

4.5

8.9 14.5 10.7 13.9

5.8 0.8 6.1 19.7

9.3 6.6 8.2 13.0

11.2 8.7 9.2 12.4

10.5 8.4 7.7 11.3

10.8 9.7 6.6

10.8 9.3 6.4 10.5

MONTHLY s 1976--APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

10.9 -13.1 -3.1 13.2

1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. P C

10.4 -13.3 -4.3 14.3 *

C-

-2.9

7.6 7.5 C

11.5

13.4

10.7 S

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, RELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.B I/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMEN P - PRELIMINARY

NOTES:

LOANS

SOLD

10 BANK-

12.1

7.2 8.7 14.6 11.0 10.9

MAY

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

13,

1977

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MONEY STOCK MEASURES

SBANK CREDIT MEASURES

BANK RESERVES V

Total

Period

borrowed

Monetary Base

Adj. Credit proxy

34,174 34,015 34,465

33,447 33,885 34,412

104,380 110,394 118,051

494.6 513.8 538.8

33,545 33,661 33,776

33,501 33,546 33,650

112,747 113.498 114,009

JULY AUG. SEPT.

33,833 33,998 33,823

33,701 33,897 33,761

OCT. NOV. DEC.

33,992 34,325 34,465

1977--JAN. FEB. MAR.

Non

Loans and Investments 5

695.2 725.5 778.?

283.1 294.8 312.8

612.4 664.3 739.3

981.5 1092.6 1236.1

701.4 746.5 802.6

1070.5 1174.7 1299.3

1181.2 1308.4 1439.7

1221.6 1351.0 1491.1

517.2 515.6 521.4

744.5 748.4 753.3

301.8 303.5 303.2

690.6 695.7 698.2

1139.7 1149.7 1156.5

761.8 764.3 768.4

1210.9 1218.3 1226.7

1348.7 1357.0 1366.7

1393.0 1402.5 1413.4

114,625 115,252 115,739

522.8 523.1 523.8

754.7 760.0 763.7

305.0 306.5 306.9

705.2 710.4 716.3

1168.8 1180.8 1193.9

774.1 775.4 779.4

1237.7 1245.8 1257.0

1380.0 1388.1 1398.0

1427.7 1436.3 1446.7

33,898 34,253 34,412

116,424 117,303 118,051

529.0 534.0 538.8

771.4 777.6 778.7

310.5 310.6 312.8

725.7 731.7 739.3

1210.5 1222.8 1236.1

788.0 794.0 802.6

1272.8 1285.0 1299.3

1414.9 1427.3 1439.7

1464.3 1477.7 1491.1

34,778 34,397 34,308

34,710 34,326 34,204

119,101 119,079 119,573

540.8 539.5 542.9

784.5 794.0 801.1

314.3 314.5 316.1

745.0 749.1 754.2

1247.6 1256.6 1266.2

808.0 812.3 816.3

1310.7 1319.9 1328.4

1452.7 1464.5 1472.6

1504.5 1516.1 1524.2

34,685

34,612

120,750

546.3

810.4

321.3

762.4

1279.3

824.0

1340.9

1485.7

1537.5

9 16 23 30

34,048 34,242 34,139 34,761

34,028 34,218 33,801 34,703

118,837 119,355 119,5Z4 120,569

541.0 543.6 543.6 541.1

315.6 317.2 316.0 315.0

752.4 755.0 754.7 754.2

814.8 817.0 816.5 816.7

APR.

6 13 20 27P

34,512 34,229 34,755 34,947

34,447 34,191 34,726 34,848

120,273 119,862 120,890 121,543

546.7 547.1 547.9 545.6

320.3 321.4 321.0 322.8

761.3 763.0 761.7 764.0

823.8 824.6 823.0 825.2

MAY

35,324

35,110

121,592

544.5

321.2

762.6

823.9

STotal 1 ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976

MONTHLY: 1976--APR. MAY JUNE

APR. WEEKLY:

1977-MAR.

NOTES:

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. MEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR H3, M5, M6, MT, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS.

MAY

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

13,

1977

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits Period

Currency

Demand Deposits

Other Than CD's

Total Total

||es

CD's

Savings

Other

Mutual Savings Bank & S&L Shares-

Credit Union Shares

Savings Bonds

short Te Commercial ercial U.S. Gov't Paper ecurities Securities it 11

(Per cent annual rates of growth)

ANNUALLY: 10.2 8.7 9.4

1974 1975 1976

3.0 2.6 5.0

14.9 8.0 8.4

9.4 12.2 15.4

7.0 17.8 25.5

11.2 8.2 7.7

41.3 -7.8 -22.9

5.5 15.7 15.8

12.2 19.6 18.2

4.8 6.3 6.8

9.7 40.1 3.2

17.1 5.4 20.7

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2NO HALF 1975

7.9

1.0

7.7

10.4

16.0

6.1

-3.6

15.2

17.8

6.4

52.0

5.3

15T HALF 1976 2ND HALF 1976

10.3 8.0

4.2 5.8

6.0 10.5

13.8 15.9

23.6 24.5

6.4 8.7

-29.0 -19.7

13.8 16.7

16.4 18.5

6.2 7.2

12.7 -5.9

19.2 20.1

0.6

-17.4 -40.5 1.3

12.7 16.9 15.9

15.1 17.9 18.2

6.4 8.1 6.2

12.9 -1.7 -10.2

28.4 17.1 22.2

-7.0

12.0

16.4

6.1

15.8

1.6

UUARTRLY:

2ND

QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

1976 1976 1976

9.5 8.8 7.1

5.8 3.7 7.7

6.2 14.6

11.1 14.5 16.7

13.6 19.0 28.7

8.9 10.8 6.5

IST QTR.

1977

8.9

2.8

8.5

10.8

14.7

7.3

2ND QTR. 1976 3RD QTR. 1976 4TH 01R. 1976

11.2 7.8 8.1

7.0 3.2 6.2

5.4 7.0 11.5

12.4 12.8 16.3

21.7 13.4 26.9

4.9 1Z.0 7.3

-30.1 -24.6 -18.9

13.5 14.6 17.2

16.5 15.9 18.5

5.9 7.5 6.8

11.8 10.3 -8.9

19.4 23.7 18.3

1ST QTR. 1977

8.5

3.6

11.3

12.7

20.5

6.1

1.9

13.3

16.7

6.7

5.7

9.5

1976--APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

14.3 11.0 3.1 9.3 7.7 9.2 9.1 7.5 4.5

15.1 5.3 -3.2 6.9 5.3 -1.1 15.8 -2.1 9.4

5.8 1.8 12.0 9.5 -0.3 9.2 12.7 14.8 15.9

14.0 9.9 9.2 15.2 11.4 16.3 17.0 17.3 15.1

22.1 18.3 0.0 11.4 21.9 22.8 30.0 26.2 28.0

6.8 3.4 16.4 18.4 2.7 10.9 6.0 9.7 3.7

-36.0 -43.8 28.0 -22.2 -67.9 -35.1 -15.2 -1.9 21.2

13.8 13.0 10.9 13.9 18.0 18.0 18.0 15.3 13.8

17.4 13.8 13.6 16.8 16.6 19.6 19.3 15.8 18.8

7.0 5.2 7.0 6.9 8.6 8.5 5.1 6.8 6.7

12.3 12.2 13.8 34.0 -11.6 -26.7 10.2 -3.4 -37.3

19.3 32.5 31.6 23.1 15.1 12.4 17.2 24.3 23.8

1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. P

10.4 10.3 5.9 13.1

4.7 -2.6 6.2 22.1

9.8 9.7 5.8 6.0

11.8 10.6 9.7 8.5

21.5 12.3 9.9 8.0

3.2 9.0 9.5 8.9

-3.8 3.8 -20.9 -11.6

14.2 11.4 10.0 10.7

15.4 15.2 18.0 17.7

6.7 6.6 5.0 6.6

22.8 37.8 -13.3 3.4

7.0 -2.3 0.0 4.7

QUAR ktRLY-AV:

MONTHLY:

1/ P -

GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY.

APPENDIX TABLE

2-B

MAY

13,

1977

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Tim. and S.vln

De., t

M.utua l Bank

Currency Demand

Period

ort-

Union

Svings

Non

Total

mercial

Deposit

Govt

Co-

Credit

S aV

and Savingn Dep

posits

Sec

Shares I

Total 4

Savings 5

Other 6

369.6

136.2 160.5

193.1 209.0 225.1

89.0 82.1 63.3

341.5 395.2 457.8

27.6 33.0 39.0

63.3 67.3 71.9

47.4 66.4

71.2 68.6 70.2

414.2 418.7 422.5

34.9 35.7

68.7 69.0 69.4

ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976

40.4 42.6 51.4

6.0 0.3 11.2

69.1 69.8 70.6

44.3

7.6

45.5 46.7

1.9

69.8 70.3 70.8

72.6 71.9 70.3

47.6 48.2

457.8

70.9 70.7 68.5

49.4

38.4 39.0

71.1 71.5 71.9

50.4 51.4

13.0 11.2

63.1 63.3 62.2

463.2 467.6 471.5

39.5 40.0 40.6

72.3 72.7 73.0

69.8 72.0 71.2

51.7 51.6 51.6

1i.0

230.9

61.6

475.7

41.2

73.4

71.4

51.8

10.6

208.5 208.7 208.9 209.2

228.4 229.1 229.8 229.9

62.4 62.0 61.8

231.3

441.3

209.8 210.4 210.0 210.3

231.2 230.7 230.9

62.4 61.6 61.3 61.2

441.4

210.7

230.7

61.3

67.8 73.7 80.6

215.3 221.0 232.1

418.3 451.7 489.8

329.3 426.5

201.4

1976--APR. MAY JUNE

76.6 77.3 77.5

225.2 226.2 225.6

460.0 460.7 465.3

388.9 392.1 395.1

176.7 179.4

212.2 212.8 215.7

JULY AUG. SEPT.

78.1 78.6 79.2

226.9 227.9 227.7

469.0

400.1

468.9

403.9 409.4

181.1 184.4 187.9

219.0 219.5 221.5

68.9 65.0 63.1

427.4 433.8 440.3

36.2 36.7 37.3

OCT. NOV. DEC.

79.8 80.3

230.7 230.3

477.5 489.8

222.6 224.4 225.1

62.3 62.2 63.3

37.9

232.1

192.6 196.8 201.4

446.9 452.6

80.6

415.2 421.2 426.5

1977-JAN. FEB. MAR.

81.3 82.0 82.4

233.0 232.5 233.7

493.8 497.8 500.2

430.7 434.5 438.0

205.0 207.1 208.8

225.7 227.4 229.2

83.3

238.0

502.7

441.1

210.2

9 16 23 30

82.3 82.3 82.5 82.9

233.3 234.9

499.2 499.7 500.5 501.7

436.9 437.8 438.7 439.1

6 13 20 27P

83.2 82.8

503.5

441.1

503.2

441.6 440.7

83.6

237.1 238.6 237.8 239.2

83.4

237.8

502.7

68.5

MONTHLY:

APR.

472.5 483.4

179.4

35.3

>.b r,.1 LL.6 IS .U

48.7

11.2

MEEKLY: 1977-MAR.

APR.

HAY

83.2

1/ 2/ P -

233.5 232.1

502.0 502.5

11 .5 1.1 11.' 9.7

62.5

8.7 10.6 13.4 10.6 11.6 11.6 a

ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY

END OF

MONTH REPORTED

DATA.

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1977, May 16). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770517

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19770517,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1977},
  month = {May},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770517},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}