bluebooks · June 20, 1977

Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

June 17, 1977

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC

June 17, 1977

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1)

M-1 increased at a 1.1 per cent annual rate in May

following April's record rise, and over the May-June period it appears to be growing at around a 1¾ per cent annual rate, slightly below the mid-point of the Committee's desired range.

M-2 appears to be increasing

at nearly a 6 per cent annual rate in May-June, a little above the mid-point of the Committee's range.

Nonborrowed reserves apparently

will decline on balance over May-June--with a small June increase not quite offsetting a May decline--primarily because of a flattening of growth in demand deposits and an increase in member bank borrowing since mid-April.

Growth in Monetary Aggregates over May-June period 1/ (SAAR in per cent)

Ranges

Latest Estimates

0 to 4

3 to 7

M-2

Memorandum: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

Avg. for statement week ending May 18 5.34 25 5.45 June 1 5.36 8 5.31 15 5.37

These figures do not incorporate the regular quarterly benchmark revisions of monetary aggregates that will be published on Thursday, June 23. The revisions (based on the December Call Report) are generally quite small. The level of M-1 was lowered somewhat by these revisions, while the level of M-2 was raised slightly. Quarterly growth rates for M-1 for the last quarter of 1976 and the first quarter of 1977 were lowered about ½ of a percentage point. M-2 growth was raised by about the same amount. All tables on subsequent pages of this report (with the exception of Tables 1 and 2 following the charts) are based on the new series. The new and old series are compared in Appendix IV.

(2)

In accordance with the Committee's directive, following

the May meeting the Account Management aimed at a Federal funds rate of about 5-3/8 per cent.

Subsequently, with incoming data suggesting that

growth rates in the monetary aggregates would be within the Committee's desired ranges, the Desk has continued to seek a funds rate around that level. (3)

Short-term market interest rates generally increased about

10 to 15 basis points in the latter part of May, but subsequently they declined and are now little different from their levels at the time of

the May meeting.

The recent tendency for such rates to decline appears

to be attributable in part to the steadiness of the Federal funds rate and to the slowing of growth in the aggregates. also have eased somewhat in recent weeks.

Short-term credit demands

The Treasury has continued to

redeem bills in its regular weekly and monthly auctions, and short-term borrowing by State and local governments has dropped back to relatively moderate levels following a bulge in April.

In addition, business demands

for short-term funds at banks and in the commercial paper market moderated in May, after showing exceptional strength in April.

Most major banks

recently raised the prime rate in two steps from 6¼ to 6¾ per cent, although most recently one large bank posted a 6½ per cent prime rate.

Even with

the prime rate at 6¾ per cent, the spread over the cost of open market funds has narrowed by about ¼ of a percentage point since the previous prime rate adjustment in mid-December. (4)

Most long-term yields have declined about 10 to 20 basis

points since the time of the last FOMC meeting, in part because short-term rates did not rise in the manner expected by many market participants. These yield declines also reflected reduced offerings of long-term Treasury and corporate debt and strong institutional demands for municipal securities.

Yields on primary mortgages, on the other hand, have changed

little. (5)

The table on the following page shows (in terms of

percentage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods.

Past

1975 & 1976 Average

Twelve Months May '77 over May '76

Six Months May '77 over Nov.'76

Three Months May '77 over Feb.'77

Nonborrowed reserves

1.4

2.9

1.6

2.2

-3.0

Total reserves

0.4

3.2

2.3

3.8

1.6

Monetary Base

6.5

6.9

7.7

6.3

M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/

5.2

5.7

6.6

8.5

0.7

M 2 (M plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's)

10.4

10.3

9.6

9.0

4.7

M 3 (M plus deposits at thrift institutions)

13.0

12.1

10.7

9.7

7.0

(M2 plus CD's)

7.3

8.6

8.9

7.8

5.4

M 5 (M3 plus CD's)

10.7

10.9

10.2

8.9

7.3

4.5

5.8

4.3

4.4

-1.3

6.7

10.0

10.4

11.5

10.3

-1.1

-0.5

0.0

-0.3

0.7

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.3

Past Month May '77 over Apr.'77

Concepts of Money

Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.)

Loans and investments of commercial banks2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change

in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 1/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (6)

Summarized below for Committee consideration are

alternative short-run operating specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate. (Detailed data are shown in the tables on pp. 6 and 7.) Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

M-1

3½ to 7½

3 to 7

2½ to 6½

M-2

6½ to 10½

6 to 10

5½ to 9½

Federal funds rate (Intermeeting period)

4½ to 5¼

5 to 5¾

5½ to 6¼

Ranges for June-July

(7)

Assuming the Federal funds rate remains around the

5-3/8 per cent mid-point of the alternative B range, the staff expects M-1 growth in the June-July period to strengthen to an annual rate in the range of 3 to 7 per cent.

Available weekly data suggest that M-1

growth will remain relatively slow in June.

By July, however, most

of the adjustment to the April bulge should have already occurred, and M-1 is expected to grow more rapidly in response to the projected expansion in GNP and the associated increases in transactions demands for money. The July expansion in M-1 is likely to be buoyed further by an earlier-

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1977

May June July

320.7 321.2 323.6

320.7 321.2 323.4

320.7 321.2 323.2

767.6 772.3 778.6

767.6 772.3 778.1

767.6 772.3 777.5

1288.7 1298.2 1309.5

1288.7 1298.2 1308.5

1288.7 1298.2 1307.5

1977

QI QII QIII QIV

314.4 320.8 325.2 329.0

314.4 320.8 324.7 328.4

314.4 320.8 324.3 328.0

751.0 768.2 784.1 797.9

751.0 768.2 782.8 796.3

751.0 768.2 781.5 794.5

1258.4 1289.4 1319.8 1345.4

1258.4 1289.4 1317.4 1342.4

1258.4 1289.4 1315.2 1339.6

1978

331.7

809.7

809.3

808.3

1367.8

1366.5

1364.7

1.9 9.0

1.9 8.2

1.9 7.5

7.3 9.8

7.3 9.0

7.3 8.1

8.8 10.4

8.8 9.5

8.8 8.6

Growth Rates Monthly: 1977

June July

Quarterly Average: 1977

QI QII QIII QIV

4.2 8.1 5.5 4.7

4.2 8.1 4.9 4.6

4.2 8.1 4.4 4.6

9.9 9.2 8.3 7.0

9.9 9.2 7.6 6.9

9.9 9.2 6.9 6.7

11.3 9.9 9.4 7.8

11.3 9.9 8.7 7.6

11.3 9.9 8.0 7.4

1978

3.3

4.0

4.5

5.9

6.5

6.9

6.7

7.2

7.5

6.9 4.0

6.6 4.3

6.3 4.6

8.8 6.5

8.5 6.8

8.1 6.9

9.8 7.3

9.4 7.5

9.0 7.5

5.5

7.8

7.6

8.7

8.6

8.4

Semi-annual

QI '77-QIII '77 QIII '77-QI '78 Annual

QI '77-QI '78 FOMC longer-run range QI '77-QI '78

4-64

7-94

84-11

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy

M4 Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1977

May June July

829.9 836.0 842.5

829.9 836.0 842.2

829.9 836.0 841.7

1351.0 1361.9 1373.3

1351.0 1361.9 1372.6

1351.0 1361.9 1371.7

545.5 550.6 553.8

545.5 550.6 553.6

545.5 550.6 553.4

1977

QI QII QIII QIV

813.8 830.7 848.7 867.1

813.8 830.7 847.7 865.9

813.8 830.7 846.6 864.8

1321.3 1351.9 1384.3 1414.8

1321.3 1351.9 1382.3 1412.0

1321.3 1351.9 1380.4 1409.8

541.1 547.4 557.5 569.5

541.1 547.4 556.9 568.7

541.1 547.4 556.3 568.1

1978

887.2

886.8

886.1

1445.2

1444.0

1442.5

587.6

587.3

587.0

8.8 9.3

8.8 8.9

8.8 8.2

9.7 10.0

9.7 9.4

9.7 8.6

11.2 7.0

11.2 6.5

11.2 6.1

Growth Rates Monthly: 1977

June July

Quarterly Averages: 1977

QI QII QIII QIV

9.3 8.3 8.7 8.7

9.3 8.3 8.2 8.6

9.3 8.3 7.7 8.6

10.9 9.3 9.6 8.8

10.9 9.3 9.0 8.6

10.9 9.3 8.4 8.5

5.4 4.7 7.4 8.6

5.4 4.7 6.9 8.5

5.4 4.7 6.5 8.5

1978

9.3

9.7

9.9

8.6

9.1

9.3

12.7

13.1

13.3

Semi-annual QI '77-QIII '77

8.6

8.3

8.1

9.5

9.2

8.9

6.1

5.8

5.6

QIII '77-QI '78

9.1

9.2

9.3

8.8

8.9

9.0

10.8

10.9

11.0

9.0

8.9

9.4

9.3

9.2

8.6

8.5

Annual

QI '77-QI '78

8.5

than-usual distribution of social security checks, leading to more than normal amounts of funds held in demand deposit accounts over the long holiday weekend.1/ (8)

Under alternative B growth in M-2 over June-July would

be expected to pick up somewhat, due mainly to the anticipated strengthening in M-1.

However, growth in the time and savings deposit

component of M-2 also should recover somewhat from the reduced pace of recent months.

The stimulative effects on time and savings deposit

inflows of a continued rise in personal income and advances in offering rates at some banks are expected to be about counterbalanced by the delayed impact of earlier increases in short-term market rates. (9) Over the next few weeks aggregate demands on credit markets may change little.

Households probably will continue borrowing

substantial amounts in the residential mortgage and consumer credit markets, and business demands for short-term credit may strengthen from May's temporarily reduced pace.

However, offerings of long-term bonds

by businesses are expected to remain light into the summer, and offerings by State and local governments are likely to decline somewhat. 1/

Since the usual distribution date for social security checks (the third of the month) falls on a Sunday in July, the checks will be delivered on the preceding Friday. In October 1976 and April 1977, the two previous occasions when checks were delivered early, the money stock bulged in the first week of the month and remained relatively high throughout the first half of the month. The staff projection of July M-1 growth reflects an assumption that this pattern will reoccur. If this assumption were not made, the projected M-1 growth rate would be reduced by about 2 percentage points in July and about 1¼ percentage points in the 2-month June-July period.

-9Furthermore, the Treasury may continue redeeming bills on into July. Although it is widely expected that the Treasury will market about $1.5 billion of 15-year bonds in the last week of June, it appears that this will be the only new money it will raise in the coupon market until early August. (10)

Given this background, and assuming that Federal funds

continue to trade at around 5-3/8 per cent as contemplated under alternative B, it seems probable that short-term rates will remain close to current levels in the near term.

However, there might well be

some backup in long-term rates in the aftermath of the recent rally that carried corporate and municipal yields to around their lowest levels in several years. (11)

Over the longer run, interest rates, particularly in

short-term markets, are likely to come under upward pressure. Treasury's need for new money will be expanding substantially.

The Business

demands for funds may strengthen in the latter part of the summer and in the autumn as rising expenditures on plant and equipment and inventories outpace growth in internal sources of funds.

Also, credit demands of

households and State and local governments are likely to remain strong. (12)

The staff projections suggest

that under alternative B

the Federal funds rate would have to advance to an average of about 6 per cent in the first quarter of next year if M-1 growth in the QI '77QI '78 period is to be held near the mid-point of the Committee's

4 -6

per cent range.

This funds rate level is somewhat lower than that

-10shown in the last blue book, reflecting both the slower second-quarter growth of the aggregates than projected then and the slightly slower growth of nominal GNP now expected in late 1977 and early 1978.

Inflows

of interest-bearing deposits are still expected to slow sufficiently to keep growth in M-2 and M-3 in the lower part of their respective one-year ranges. (13)

The alternative C specifications involve an increase of

the funds rate over the next few weeks to the mid-point of a 5½-6½ per cent range.

This may be accompanied by growth in M-1 in the June-July

period at an annual rate in a range of 2½ to 6½ per cent.

Money market

firming of the degree contemplated under this alternative probably would produce a prompt, appreciable rise in short-term interest rates and some increase in bond yields.

The rise in short-term market rates probably

would induce more depository institutions to raise offering rates on savings and time deposits to ceiling levels.

Short-term rates might rise

far enough to trigger sizable outflows of savings funds to market instruments and to induce banks to bid aggressively for negotiable CD's and for the types of large-denomination time deposits included in M-2.

ceiling rates are unattractive relative to market rates, beginning in July

-11some institutions may experience substantial withdrawals in connection with heavy maturities of "wild card" accounts.1/ (14)

The immediate tightening of the money market under

alternative C would tend to lessen the degree of restraint that would be needed later to achieve growth in M-1 over the QI '77-QI '78 period near the mid-point of the Committee's one-year range.

The funds rate under

this alternative would be expected to reach 6½ per cent in the fourth quarter of this year and to remain around that level in early 1978. Because short-term market interest rates also would be expected to be lower than under alternative B or A, banks and thrift institutions should be able to maintain stronger inflows of interest-bearing deposits at that time.

Although growth in M-2 and M-3 would consequently

be stronger in late 1977 and early 1978 than under the other alternatives, even under alternative C the growth rates projected for M-2 and M-3 over the year ending QI '78 are in the lower part of their respective ranges. (15)

An easing of the Federal funds rate over the near term

to the mid-point of a 4½ to 5¼ per cent range--as called for under alternative A--and the associated decline in short-term rates might well be accompanied, at least temporarily, by significant declines in

1/ From July to October 1973 interest ceilings were removed on time deposits with minimum denominations of $1,000 and maturities of at least four years. Commercial banks accumulated about $9 billion, and thrift institutions $18 billion, in such "wild card" accounts. About one-third of these deposits at commercial banks are estimated to have been issued at rates above now-prevailing ceilings on fouryear accounts. Although information concerning thrifts is much less complete, it is estimated that about the same proportion of their "wild card" certificates were issued at rates above current ceilings on four-year accounts.

-12long-term rates.

At present dealer positions in Treasury coupon issues

are relatively low and forward calendars for long-term Treasury and corporate debt are quite light.

In order to achieve growth rates in M-1

at the mid-point of the Committee's one-year range, however, the Federal funds rate would have to begin to rise relatively soon and to reach a level above those envisioned under alternatives B and C.

Thus, under

alternative A, the Federal funds rate would be expected to average around 7¼ per cent in the first quarter of 1978.

-13-

Directive language (16)

Given below are alternatives for the operational para-

graphs of the directive.

The first formulation, like the directive

adopted at the last meeting, places main emphasis on near-term rates of growth in monetary aggregates; it shows--in strike-through form--the specifications adopted at the last meeting. main emphasis on money market conditions.

The second formulation places

As suggested below, the

particular language needed in the opening lines of the money market formulation would depend on the specific conditions sought; the three alternatives shown--calling, respectively, for somewhat easier, prevailing, and somewhat firmer money market conditions--are intended to be associated with the specifications discussed in the preceding section under alternatives A, B, and C. "Monetary Aggregates" Formulation The Committee seeks to encourage near-term rates of growth in M-1 and M-2 on a path believed to be reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph.

Specifically, at present, it expects the annual growth

rates over the May-June JUNE-JULY period to be within the ranges of [DEL: 0-to-4] ____

____

per cent for M-2.

per cent for M-1 and [DEL: 3½ 7½] to

____

In the judgment of the Committee such

growth rates are likely to be associated with a weekly average 5-3/8]____ Federal funds rate of[DEL:

per cent.

If, giving approximately

equal weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the

-142-month period will deviate significantly from the mid-points of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of [DEL: 5¼to 5¾]

____

to ____

per cent.

If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairmanwho will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. "Money Market" Formulation At this time, the Committee seeks to maintain about the prevailing money market conditions (or to achieve somewhat easier or somewhat firmer money market conditions) during the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at approximately the rates currently expected, which are believed to be on a path reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph.

Specifically, the Committee seeks to maintain the per cent, so long

weekly average Federal funds rate at about ____

as M-1 and M-2 appear to be growing over the June-July period at annual rates within ranges of ____to

to ____

per cent, respectively.

____

per cent and

If, giving approximately equal

weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period are approaching or moving beyond the limits of the

-15indicated ranges, the operational objective for the weekly average Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of ____

to ____

per cent.

Appendix I Expansion in Reserves Over the Period From QI '77 to QIII '77 Consistent With Proposed Alternatives (seasonally adjusted, per cent annual rate) Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Nonborrowed Reserves

3.6

2.7

1.6

Total Reserves

4.8

4.5

4.3

Monetary Base

7.7

7.6

7.5

From the first to the second quarter the reserve aggregate measures shown above are estimated to have grown at the following annual rates: nonborrowed reserves, 1.9 per cent; total reserves, 2.9 per cent; and the monetary base, 7.2 per cent.

These growth rates are

generally below the longer-run rates shown in the table above.

Growth

in reserve aggregates is projected to accelerate from the second to the third quarter, as member bank deposits--including CD's--expand more rapidly. The growth rate in nonborrowed reserves would still be quite moderate, however, as the System provides less reserves through open market operations and banks borrow more through the discount window.

Demand

for borrowings is expected to be greater in the July-September period, given the present discount rate funds rate.

and expectations of a rising Federal

Growth in the monetary base in the third quarter is projected

at a rate slightly above the longer-run growth rates shown for this aggregate.

Appendix II Projected Federal Funds Rate Alt. A 1977

1978

QII

Alt. B

Alt. C

5-1/8

5k 6

QIII

QIV

Appendix III Implied Velocity Growth Rates V

Alt. C

(GNP/M )

Alt. A

Alt. B

5.3

III

6.3

6.9

7.4

6.9

7.1

8.1

7.3

6.8

4.2

III

3.5

4.1

4.8

4.6

4.8

5.1

5.5

4.9

4.4

1977

1978

2 (GNP/M 2 1 1977

1978

Appendix IV SUPPLEMENTAL TABLE 1 COMPARISONS OF OLD AND REVISED MONEY STOCK GROWTH RATES

Old

Revised

Old

Revised

Old

Revised

Yearly 1976--Dec/Dec

6.1

6.0

11.3

11.4

13.1

13.2

1976--QIV/QIV

5.7

5.6

10.8

10.9

12.7

12.8

Quarterly: End Month of Quarter Basis 1976--QIV

7.7

7.2

12.8

13.4

14.1

14.5

1977-QI

4.2

3.8

8.1

8.5

9.7

10.0

Quarterly Average Basis 1976--QIV

6.7

6.4

12.2

12.5

14.2

14.4

1977-QI

4.8

4.2

9.4

9.9

11.0

11.3

14.1

13.7

15.7

16.1

16.7

16.9

November

0.4

0.0

9.9

10.6

12.2

12.6

December

8.5

7.7

12.5

13.1

13.4

5.8

5.4

9.3

9.7

11.2

11.4

February

0.8

6.6

7.1

8.7

8.9

March

6.1

5.3

8.2

8.6

9.2

9.4

April

19.7

19.4

13.0

13.5

12.1

12.4

1.1

0.7

4.6

4.7

6.9

7.1

Monthly 1976-October

1977-January

May

CHART 1

6/17/77

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 340

S320 300

280

780

760

740

7V 2 % growth for May-June

720

/77

700

growth

680

660

I 1975

1976

1977

I A

I M

1977

CHART 2

6/17/77

MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 550

-530

510

RESERVES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 37

T OT A L

NONBORROWED

1976 1976

I 977 1977

CHART 3

6/17/77

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

PER CENT

INTEREST RATES Short-term

PER CENT -1 9

F.R. DISCOUNT RATE

:DERAL FUNDS RATE

RESERVES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1975

1976

1977

1975

1976

1977

1975

1976

1977

Table 1

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES

JUNE

17,

1977

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Time

Totail

Broad (M2)

Credit Proxy

U.S. Govl. Deposits.

754.2 762.4 765.2 (769.9)

542.9 546.1 545.5 (550.8)

11.2 10.8 10.6 ( 9.0)

500.2 502.7 505.9 1511.4)

438.0 441.1 443.6 (447.6)

208.9 210.4 211.3 (211.3)

229.2 230.7 232.3 (236.3)

62 2 61.6 62.3 ( 6N..8)

(

11.5 3.0 5.8)

(

14.6 8.5 9.0)

(

16.7 10.8 8.8)

(

28.5 15.3 4.6)

6.5 6.9 12.4)

..3 -7.0 11.3)

(

8.2 5.4 4.1)

(

11.5 11.3 7.6)

(

16.3 12.7 8.9)

(

26.7 20.5 7.9)

(

5.8 6.0 7.6 13.0)

9.7 8.5 6.8 10.8)

(

11.0 8.6 5.1 0.0)

(

10.4)

(

8.8)

(

2.6)

Othr Than C'D Savins otal

Member

Nondeposit

nd Savings Deposits

Adjusted

Narrow (M1)

Money Supply Period

Sources Funds

tar

o f

US. Govt. Deposits

7.7 7.7 7.8 7.9)

2.8 3.6 2.1 3.5)

MONTHLY LEVELS-SBIL 1977-MAR. APR. MAY JUNE % ANNUAL

316.1 321.3 321.6 (322.2)

(

GROWTH

QUARTERLY 1976-4TH QTk. 1977-151 QTR. 2ND QTR.

7.7 4.2 7.7)

12.8 8.1 8.3)

6.8 4.8 b.5)

(

12.2 9.4 8.8)

6.1 19.7 1.1 2.2)

(

8.2 13.0 4.4 7.4)

(

7.6 7.1 -1.3 11.7)

1.7)

5.9)

(

5.2)

4 11 18 25

321.3 321.0 322.2 322.4

762.8 763.9 766.0 766.7

544.4 543.6 545.8 547.2

11.6 10.7 10.9 10.5

502.8 504.9 506.2 507.0

441.5 443.0 443.9 444.3

210.9 211.7 211.5 211.4

230.6 231.2 232.4 232.9

61.3 62.0 62.4 62.7

7.3 7.7 6.1 8.3

2.8 1.6 2.0 2.2

1 8

321.5

767.0 769.3

546.7 551.0

8.3 7.5

508.4 510.0

445.5 't46.8

211.0 211.3

234.!, 235.0

62.9 63.2

7.5 7.8

2.6 4.4

QUARTERLY-AV 1976-41H QTR. 1977-151 QTR. 2ND QTR.

7.6 5.9 9.8)

-18.9 1.9 ( -1.9)

9.0 7.9 8.3 20.7)

-20.9 -11.6 13.6 28.9)

(

14.6)

(

MONTHLY

1977-MAR. APR. MAY JUNE MAY-JUNE

(

21.4)

WEEKLY LEVELS-$BIL 1977-MAY

JUNE

NOTE: 1/ P -

322.5

DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 2

BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period

MONTHLY

Total

17,

I 7

REQUIRED RESERVES

Reserves

Nonborrowed Reserves

Monetary Base

Total Required

Private Demand

Total Time Deposits

Gov't. and Interbank

LEVELS-$MILLIONS

1977--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE PERCENT

JJht

34,308 34,680 34,726 134,8221

34,204 34,606 34,519 (34959b)

(

7.6 -1.8 6.0)

7.7 -2.4 4 4.6)

4.4 2.7 2.9)

119,573 120,750 121,379 (122,043)

34,093 34,48u 34.521 (34.629)

20,403 20,608 20,706 (20,574

12,123 1.,162 14,116 (12,3141

1, 7 1,1 t 1, 11. 1, I41)

ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976--4TH QTR. 1977--1S1 QTR. 2ND QTR.

8.0 I

5.2 8.3)

(

7.1 6.8 7.2)

6.8 -1.1 b.3)

(

4.0 3.0 3.2)

(

-3.7 13.9 1.1 3.8)

(

2.5)

1.6 3.7 3.4)

(

3.2 5.0 2.8)

8.0 6.9 6.3)

QUARTERLY-AV 1976--4TH OTR. 1977-1ST QTR. 2ND QTR.

(

4.8 2.6 1.9)

(

-4.3 14.1 -3.0 2.7)

(

-0.1)

(

-0.7 9.5 4.0)

-0.8 12.1 5.7 -7.7)

6.4 3.9 -4.5 19.61

(

-1.0)

(

7.5)

MONTHLY 1977--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE

MAY-JUNE WEEKLY

(

2.5)

5.0 11.8 6.3 6.6)

1 (

6.4)

LEVELS-MNILLIONS 1977-MAY

JUNE

4 11 16 25

35,327 34,646 34,829 34,277

35,112 34,530 34,702 33,966

121,654 120,989 121,468 121,062

35,025 34,640 34,611 34,142

20,783 20 872 20,744 20,552

12,072 12,067 12,091 12,138

2,169 1 701 1,776 1 45i

1 8 15

34,773 34r517 34,754

34.543 34,294 34,531

121,892 121,212 121,670

34,382 34,471 34,443

20,595 20,661 20,481

12,207 12,240 12,292

1,560 1,511 1 671

I NOTEs

-3.1 13.0 1.6 3.3)

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

I RESERVE REQUIREMENT

RA1IO.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JUNE 17, 1977

TABLE 3 1/ NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES($ millions, not seasonally adjusted)

Treasury Bills Net Change 2/

Period

Within 1 year

-490 7,232 1,280 -468 863 1976--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr.

I II III IV

1977--Qtr. I

Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Over 1 - 5 5 - 10 10

Total

789 579 797 3,284 3,025

539 500 434 1,510 1,048

167 129 196 1,070 642

1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187

-363 2,067 45 -886

115 109 171 77

554 796 881 794

226 245 345 232

156 134 160 192

1,052 1,284 1,557 1,294

1,164

192

997

325

165

1,680

Within 1 year

592 400 1,665 824 469

1976--Dec.

-570

681

170

119

1,029

1977--Jan. Feb. Mar.

2,222

475 348 174

128 151 46

48 81 37

695 687 298

-691 -368

45 L07 41

Apr. May

1,392

327

104

489

-208

----

327

104

1977--Apr. 6 13 20 27 May

-151 -109 585

784

4 11 18 25

533 245 11 -125

June 1 8 15 22 29

-702 -1,442 -33

----

S -

Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Over 5 5 -10 10

1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891

1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227

-1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607

1,022 3,371 1,398 436

1,256 1,654 392 304

2,738

-4,771

403

5,976

2,908 -45 -125

-6,877 1,931 175

----

--- ----

173

138

346

----

--------

----

489

Total

Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/

Net RP's 6/

2,176

2,822

-254

-3,207

----

-177 -117

1,258

-9,141 7,954 3,549 822

346

866 227

2,779 -2,892

572

173 -

138

S S -

-2,841

-133

-2,697

----

-704 -1,445 -58

47 -6,501 3,444

-----

------------

LEVEL June 15 39.3 9.4 29.9 11.2 6.4 56.9 1.5 3.4 1.4 .8 7.1 103.3 -5.5 (in billions) 1/ Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemption (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars)

U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions

Underwriting Syndicate Positions

Municipal

Excess**

Bonds

Bonds (4)

Reserves (5)

3,046 175

343 34

7,234 1,729

3,017 *-289

1976--1ay June

4,239 4,996

July Aug.

8 New York

38 Others

655 -180

-8,161 -2,367

-12,744

350 125

513 -111

-8,742 -4,293

-13,975

591 582

199 196

210 214

-4,402 -4,219

- 8,151 - 9,158

Sept.

5,743 6,174 7,838

904 1,686 1,509

211 116 172

234 207 205

-4,756 -4,624 -5,703

- 9,399 - 9,691 - 9,716

Oct.

6,271

Nov. Dec.

6,876 8,005

1,832 2,418 2,443

258 217 167

221 257 274

-6,428 -6,289 -7,168

-10,527 -11,618 -11,449

1977--Jan. Feb.

6,406 4,450

2,320

202 226 162

265 198 214

-6,421 -5,604 -5,661

-11,504 -11,503 -10,912

1976--High Low

1977--High Low

Coupon Issues (2)

8,896 3,668

Member Bank Reserve Positions Basic Reserve Deficit Borrowing at FR**

Corporate Bills (1)

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JUNE 17, 1977

Total

Seasonal

- 6,908

- 9,010

Mar.

4,906

1,605 972

Apr. May

4,567 *3,072

696 *123

173 228

192 210p

-6,586 -5,693

-11,409 -10,175

6,208 6,670 6,025

761 1,103 582

232 144 125 192

256 274 34 164

-5,652 -7,445 -7,119 -5,518

-11,318 -13,727 -11,568

421 199 -289 *-83

350 180 188 194

302 46 218 157p

-5,840 -7,349 -5,627 -5,133

- 9,209

*681 *281 *164

166 213 6 1 8p

-4,392 6 -5, 14p 41 4 -5, p

- 9,433

1977--Apr.

13 20 27 May

June

1,729

2,474

11 18 25

2,778 3,232 *2,837

*4,172

8 15

*5,579 *5,711

453

- 9,122

-10,843 -11.054 - 9,817

29 NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

-1 .19 p 2 -1 ,433p

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JUNE 17, 1977

TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES

(per cent) Short-term Treasury Bills Commercial Federal Funds

90-Day

1-Year

Paper 90-119 Day

(4)

60-Day

90-Day

U.S. Govt.-Constant

Long-term Corp.-Aaa Utility Municipal

Maturity Yields 3-yr 7-yr 20-yr

New Issue

Recently Offered

Bond Buyer

Home Mortgages Primary Cony.

Secondary Market FNMA Auc. GNMA Sec.

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

(13)

(14)

(15)

5.63 4.40

5.75 4.50

7.52 5.65

7.89 6.33

8.17 7.23

8.95 7.93

8.94 7.84

7.13 5.83

9.10 8.70

9.20 8.39

8.45 7.57

5.50 4.63

5.30 4.48

5.44 4.63

6.58 5.83

7.31 6.59

7.78 7.26

8.32 7.90

8.33 7.95

5.93 5.55

8.85 8.65

8.79 8.46

8.08 7.56

5.98 6.12

5.44 5.83

5.25 5.55

5.38 5.68

7.27 7.32

7.77 7.76

8.13 8.03

8.82 8.72

8.77 8.73

6.87 6.87

8.77 8.85

9.09 9.13

8.33 8.35

5.23 5.14 5.08

5.82 5.64 5.50

5.54 4.35 5.33

5.30 5.23 5.11

5.42 5.31 5.24

7.12 6.86 6.66

7.70 7.58 7.41

8.00 7.91 7.78

8.63 8.52 8.29

8.63 8.50 8.33

6.79 6.61 6.51

8.93 9.00 8.98

9.05 8.99 8.88

8.37 8.30 8.10

4.92 4.75 4.35

5.19 5.00 4.64

5.10 4.98 4.66

4.90 4.84 4.68

5.04 4.94 4.50

6.24 6.09 5.68

7.16 6.86 6.37

7.70 7.64 7.30

8.25 8.17 7.94

8.24 8.18 7.93

6.30 6.29 5.94

8.93 8.81 8.79

8.75 8.66 8.45

7.98 7.93 7.59

4.61 4.58 4.58

4.68 4.70 4.72

6.22 6.44 6.47

6.92 7.16 7.30

7.48 7.64 7.73

8.08 8.22 8.25

8.09 8.19 8.29

5,87 5.89 5.89

8.72 8.67 8.69

8.48 8.55 8.68

7.83 7.98 8.06

6.32 6.55

7.11 7.26

7.67 7.74

8.26 8.33

8.22 8.31

5.73 5.75

8.75 8.83

8.67 8.74

7.96 8.04

8.25

5.79

8.75

8.72

8.01

8.16

5.70

8.75

8.21

5.73

8.78

8.25

5.68

8.78

(1)

(2)

(3)

1976--High Low

5.58 4.63

5.53 4.27

6.32 4.62

1977--High Low

5.45 4.47

5.11 4.41

5.53 4.67

1976--May June

5.29 5.48

5.20 5.41

July Aug. Sept.

5.31 5.29 5.25

Oct. Nov.

5.03 4.95 4.65

Dec.

CD's New Issue-NYC

1977--Jan. Feb. Mar.

4.57 5.04

Apr.

May

20 27

4.60 4.65 4.71 4.82

4.56 4.58 4.51 4.50

5.14 5.10 4.99 5.13

4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75

4.58 4.58 4.50 4.63

4.63 4.70 4.67 4.70

6.45 6.22 6.23 6.38

7.22 7.06 7.04 7.14

7.72 7.65 7.62 7.69

8.26 8.25 8.21 8.31

May

4 11 18 25

5.15 5.31 5.34 5.45

4.65 4.87 4.99 5.11

5.24 5.41 5.46 5.53

4.83 5.05 5.35 5.48

4.65 5.00 5.25 5.25

4.80 5.13 5.28 5.44

6.49 6.58 6.57 6.56

7.27 7.31 7.25 7.21

7.74 7.78 7.74 7.70

-8.32 8.34 --

8.33 8.32 8.31 8.28

5.76 5.82 5.70 5.71

8.78 8.83 8.85 8.85

8.70 -8.74 --

8.06 8.08 8.04 8.04

June

1 8 15 22 29

5.36 5.31 5.37

5.02 5.04 5.04

5.42 5.43 5.41

5.50 5.46 5.44

5.30 5.25 5.25

5.40 5.38 5.35

6.49 6.46 6.36p

7.17 7.13 7.01p

7.68 7.68 7.63p

8.15

8.22 8.22 8.08p

5.72 5.65

8.85 8.85

8.79 --

7.99 7.99

5.55

n.a.

8.77

7.99

9 16

5.33 8 5.3 p

5.08 5.02

5.45 5.43

5.50 5.40

6.49 6.37p

7.14 7.02p

7.69 7.64p

1977--Apr.

6 13

Daily--June

8.11 8

.01p

8.62 --

7.99

7.89 7.96

NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 through 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 11 and 12 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 13 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 14 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 15 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for shortterm forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FRA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling.

1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES APPENDIX TABLE

BANK CREDIT

BANK RESERVES Y

JUNE

17, 1977

MONEY STOCK

MEASUMS

MEASURES

Total Period Total

bon

borrowed

onetary

Base

Adj. edit

proxy

Loans n

2 2

Invest-

ments 4 5 6 7 (Per cet ammel rates of growth)

7.0 -0.2 1.0

7.7 3.2 1.2

9.1 5.9 6.9

9.8 4.2 4.3

10.1 3.9 8.0

5.1 4.4 5.6

7.7 8.3 10.9

7.1 11.1 12.8

10.6 6.5 7.1

9.0 9.7 10.3

8.9 10.5 9.9

9.5 10.1 10.2

2ND HALF 1975

0.3

0.9

5.8

3.5

4.5

2.8

6.9

10.2

5.7

9.1

10.8

10.6

15T HALF 1976 2ND hALF 1976

-1.4 4.1

-1.4 4.5

6.5 7.1

3.0 6.7

77.7 9.3

5.7 6.1

10.2 12.1

11.7 13.9

5.9 9.1

8.9 12.0

8.8 10.7

9.2 10.6

3.1 0.6 7.6

2.2 1.3 7.7

8.2 6.1 8.0

4.0 1.8 11.5

8.5 7.2 11.2

6.8 4.9 7.2

9.1 10.4 13.4

10.7 12.9 14.5

6.6 5.7 12.4

9.0 9.9 13.8

6.8 9.j 11.8

9.5 9.5 11.5

-2.4

5.1

3.0

9.5

3.8

8.5

10.0

7.3

9.2

9.8

10.2

2/ ANNUALLY : 1974 1975 1976 SEMI-ANNUALLYI

QUARTERLY: 2ND QTK. 1976 .RD QTR. 1976 4TH QTR. 1976 1ST QTR.

1977

-1.8

QUARTERLY-AVI 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTK.

1976 1976 1976

0.6 2.7 4.4

0.4 2.6 4.8

8.2 6.3 7.1

2.2 3.9 8.2

8.7 6.9 10.8

8.2 4.4 6.5

10.5 9.1 12.5

11.8 11.4 14.4

6.4 6.0 9.8

9.1 9.3 12.7

9.0 9.2 11.1

9.4 9.6 10.9

1SI QTR.

1977

2.7

2.6

6.8

5.4

8.8

4.2

9.9

11.3

9.3

10.9

10.5

10.6

4.1 4.1 2.0 5.9 -6.2 6.0 11.8 4.9

1.6 3.7 1.8 7.0 -4.8 4.9 12.6 5.6

8.0 5.4 6.5 6.6 5.1 7.1 9.1 7.7

-3.7 13.5 3.2 0.7 1.6 11.9 11.3 10.8

6.3 7.9 4.1 9.7 7.6 13.5 11.1 8.6

6.8 -1.2 7.1 5.9 1.6 13.7 0.0 7.7

8.9 4.3 12.0 8.8 10.0 16.1 10.6 13.1

10.5 7.1 12.8 12.3 13.3 16.9 12.6 13.4

3.9 6.4 8.9 2.0 6.2 13.5 9.7 13.4

7.3 8.3 10.8 7.9 10.8 15.3 11.9 13.7

7.1 8.2 11.5 7.6 8.6 14.0 10.7 10.5

8.0 9.2 11.8 7.7 8.7 15.7 10.3 10.2

10.9 -13.1 -3.1 13.0 1.6

10.4 -13.3 -4.3 14.1 -3.0

10.6 -0.2 5.0 11.8 6.3

4.5 -2.9 7.6 7.1 -1.3

3.7 14.7 10.0 14.0 10.3

5.4 0.8 5.4 19.4 0.7

9.7 7.1 8.6 13.5 4.7

11.4 8.9 9.4 12.4 7.0

8.7 7.0 6.2 11.7 5.4

10.8 8.7 8.0 11.3 7.3

10.8 11.0 7.2 10.7 7.3

11.0 11.3 7.9 11.0 7.9

MONTHLY: 1976--MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. OLC. 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY P NOTES:

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS RELATkD INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. 2/ BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. P - PRELIMINARY

SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANK-

17,

JUNE

1977

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BANK RES u BANK SEVES Period Total 1

BANK CREDIT MEASURES

NonMonetary borod ae borrowedBase

Adl Credit proxy

Total Loans and Investments 5

MONEY STOCK MEASURES

M2 2

1161.d 131. i 143b.

1221.0 131.1 148.4

34,174 34,015 34,465

33,447 33,885 34,412

104,380 110,394 118,054

494.6 513.8 538.8

695.2 725.5 788.2

263.1 294.8 312.4

612.4 664.3 740.3

981.5 1092.6 1237.1

71.4 74t.5 803.5

1010.5 1174.7 1300.3

33,661 33,776

33,546 33,650

113,498 114,009

515.6 521.4

748.4 753.3

403.5 303.2

695.7 69b.2

1149.7 1156.5

764.3 768.4

1218.3 126.7

JULY AU6. SEPT.

33,833 33,998 33,823

33,701 33,897 33,761

114,625 115,252 115,739

522.8 523.1 523.8

755.9 762.0 766.8

305.0 306.5 306.9

705.2 710.4 716.3

1168.8 1180.8 1193.9

774.1 775.4 779.4

OCT. NOV. DOC.

33,992 34,325 34,465

33,698 34,253 34,412

116,424 111,304 118,054

529.0 534.0 538.8

775.4 762.6 788.2

310.4 310.4 312.4

725.9 732.3 740.3

1210.7 1223.4 1237.1

1977--JAN. FEB. MAR.

34,778 34,397 34,308

34,710 34,326 34,204

119,100 119,077 119,572

540.8 539.5 542.9

790.6 800.3 807.0

313.8 314.0 315.4

746.3 750.7 756.1

34,680 34,726

34,606 34,519

120,749 121,379

546.1 545.5

816.4 823.4

3z0.5

320.7

764.6 767.6

13 20 27

34,229 34,755 349922

34,191 341726 34,823

119,863 120,890 121,516

547.1 547.9 545.6

320.6 320.2 321.9

765.1 763.9 766.2

826.7 825.2 827.4

4 11 18 25

35,327 34,686 34,829 34,277

35,112 34,530 34,702 33,966

121,653 120,990 121,488 121,061

544.4 543.6 545.8 547.2

320.4 320.1 321.3 321.5

765.1 766.2 768.4 769.1

826.4 828.2 830.7 831.8

34,773 34,517

34,543 34,294

121,891 121,213

546.7 551.0

320.6 321.5

769.4 771.7

832.3 834.9

ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976

MONTHLYs 1976--MAY JUNE

APR. MAY P

15. 1 .65.7

1402.5 141..k

1237.7 1245.8 1257.0

137a.b 16l7.5 1397.

1427.1 1436.3 1440.7

788.2 794.6 803.5

1273.0 1285.6 1300.3

1413.8 14.L.4 1436.9

1463.z 1475.8 148.4

1248.9 1258.2 1268.1

809.3 814.0 818.2

1312.0 1321.5 1330.3

1451.9 l46'.d 1471. 0

150 . 1516.<. 1526.2

1281.2 1288.7

826.2 8S9.9

1342.8 1351.0

1487.1 149o.l

1510.2 155U.4

WEEKLYS

1977-APR.

MAY

JUNE

NOTESs

IP BP

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOk STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERA6ES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3. M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVEbTMENTS AND "-.. ,-«tll TION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTC P - PRELIMINARY

17, 1977

JUNE

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period

Currency 1

Demand D a Deposits

Total

Time and Savings Deposits Other Than CD'Savings Other ThanCD's Savin

Total 4

Savings

Mutual CD's

Credit Union Shares1/

Bank S&L &

Other

Short Term Savngs U.S.Gov't Commercial Paper'/ BondsJJSecurities

Shares-i

1/ 9

8 6 7 5 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

ANNUALLY: 1974 197> 1976

10.3 8.8 9.6

3.b 2.9 4.3

14.7

HALF 1975

7.9

1ST HALF 197o 2ND HALF 1976

8.1

10.1 11.7 15.Z

6.5 17.0 24.5

12.7 8.0 8.1

36.5 -6.1 -23.5

5.6 15.5 15.6

12.3 19.4 17.8

4.7 6.2 6.9

13.5 33.-# 7.2

1.0

7.7

10.4

15.9

6.1

-3.6

15.2

17.8

6.4

51.1

5.3

10.3 7.7

4.2 5.6

6.0 11.1

13.8 16.6

23.7 24.2

6.3 10.2

-29.0 -19.7

13.8 16.7

16.4 18.5

6.2 7.2

10.3 -B.9

21.5 8.9

2ND QTR. 1976 ARO QTR. 1976 4TH QTk. 176

9.5 8.8 6.6

5.8 3.7 7.4

6.6 6.* 15.7

11.1 14.5 18.1

13.8 16.5 28.5

8.9 11.3 8.b

-17.4 -40.5 1.3

12.7 16.9 15.9

15.1 17.9 18.2

6.4 8.1 0.2

8.2 0.0 -17.8

31.9 15.2 2.4

11T 0TK.

8.4

2.2

9.5

11.9

15.-

9.0

-7.0

12.0

16.4

6.1

24.0

22.6

0.0

29.0 -1.0 18.8

SEMI-ANNUALLY:

LND

QUARTtELY:

1977

QUARTERLY-AV: 2ND OTK. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

1976 1976 1976

11.2 7.6 8.1

7.0 3.2 b.0

5.4 7.0 12.2

12.4 12.8 17.1

22.0 13.4 26.7

4.7 12.2 8.9

-30.1 - 4.6 -18.9

13.5 14.6 17.2

16.5 15.9 18.5

5.9 7.0 7.4

9.5 9.2 -14.0

22.0 22.6 5.7

1ST QiR.

1977

7.5

3.1

12.5

14.0

20.5

b.5

1.9

13.3

16.7

6.7

7.0

14.6

197o--MAY JUNE JULY AUG. StPT. OCT. NUV. DOL.

11.0

9.3 7.7 9.2 9.1 6.0 +.5

5.3 -3.2 6.9 5.3 -1.1 15.3 -L.1 8.9

1.8 12.0 9.5 -0.3 9.2 13.5 16.1 17.1

9.9 9.2 15.2 11.4 16.3 17.9 18.8 16.8

18.3 0.7 11.4 21.2 22.1 30.0 26.2 27.5

3.4 16.4 18.4 3.3 12.0 6.5 12.9 6.9

-43.8 28.0 -22.2 -67.9 -35.1 -15.2 -1.9 21.2

13.0 10.9 13.9 18.0 18.0 18.0 15.3 13.8

13.8 13.6 16.8 16.6 19.6 19.3 15.8 18.8

7.0 7.0 5.2 8.6 10.3 5.1 6.8 6.7

3.5 10.4 e9.3 0.0 -28.6 -1.7 -5.1 -46.8

34.6 33.* 20.3 14.9 9.8 4.9 0.0 L.4

1977--JAN. tB. MAR. APK. MAY P

8.9 10.4 5.9 13.1 7.2

4.1 -3.1 5.7 21.6 -2.0

11.0 10.7 6.7 6.9 8.3

12.9 11.7 10.7 9.5 7.6

22.1 12.3 11.0 8.6 -9. 1 1

5.3 11.1 10.4 10.4

-3.8 3.6 -20.9 -11.6 ..

14.2 11.4 10.0 10.4 1.f

15.4 15.2 18.0 11.8

6.7 6.6 5.0 6.6

18.0 60.4 -6.8 6.8 - -r- * I7i

14.5 Z4.0 28.2 Ib.4

MONTHLY:

1/ i/ P -

4.1

GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED PRtVIOUS MONTH RtPORI D DATA. BASED ON QUARTERLY AVEKAGE UATA. PRELIMINARY.

MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS

DERIVED BY AVERAGING

END OF CURRENT

MONTH AND END OF

JUNE

17,

1977

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Mutual

Deposits Savings Time and Time Savings and Deposits Currency Demand Deposits

Period

Total

Bank & &L

Credit Union Savings Shares Bonds

ShortTerm U S Gov't

Cornmercial Paper

Sec / 11

Total NonTotal Gov't Deposit Funds Demand

Other Than CD's

CDs

Savings 5

Other 6

136.2 160.5 201.2

193.1 209.0 226.0

89.0

341.5

62.1

27.6 33.0 39.0

63.3 67.3 71.9

47.4 (6.3

4(.4 4!.6

63.3

395.2 457.

bt.6

+>.5

212.7 215.6

6. .6 10.2

418.7 422.5

35.3 35.7

69.0

69.1

69.4

69.7

4o. 1 46.1 47.4

7.9 9.t

66.9 65.0

427.4 433.8

36.2

440.3

37.3

69.7 710.2 70.8

71.4 71.4 69.7

40. z 4a.6 49.2

10.1 .2.6 IL .o

13.0

_Total

Shares 8

1/ 9

D 13

2 14

67.8 73.7 80.5

215.3 c21.0 z31.9

418.3 '*51.7

329.3

491.1

427.9

77.3 77.5

226.2 225.6

460.7 465. 4

392.1

179.4

395.1

179.5

JULY AUb. SEPI.

78.1 78.6 79.2

420.9

469.0

400.1

227.9 227.7

468.9

181.2 1B4.4 187.8

218.9 219.5

472.5

403.9 409.4

OCT. NOV. UtC.

79.8 80.2 80.5

230.6

231.9

477.8 484.2 491.1

415.5 422.0 427.9

192.5 196.7 201.2

222.9 225.3 22e.6

62.3 62.2 63.3

440.9 452.6 457.8

37.9 38.4 39.0

71.1 71.5 71.9

69.6 69.3 66.o

49.4 49.4 49.5

81.1 81.8 82.2

z 2.7 232.1 233.2

495.0 500.0 502.8

432.5 4536.7 440.6

204.9 2U7.0 208.9

227.6

03.1

463.2

229.7 231.7

63.3

467.6 471.5

39.5 40.0 40.6

72.3 7z.7 73.0

67.6 71.0 70.6

50.1 51.1 52.*

83.1 83.6

237.4

505.7 509.2

444.1 446.9

210.4

233.7 235.6

61.6

237.0

475.6 479.8

41.0 41.3

73.4 13.8

71.0 71.3

53.1 54.3

13 20 27

82.7 83.0 83.4

237.9 237.2 238.5

506.1 503.0 505.5

444.5 443.7 444.3

210.o 210.2 210.5

233.9 233.5 233.8

61.6 01.3 61.e

4 11 le 25

83.3 83.4 83.6 83.7

237.1 23o.7 237.6 237.8

505.9

444.7

509.5 510.3

233.8 234.4 235.7 23o.2

11.6

446.2 447.1 447.6

210.9 211.7 211.5 211.4

61.*6

508.1

62.0 62.4 62.7

10.7 10.9 10.5

84.1

236.5 237.7

511.7 513.4

448.8 450.2

211.0 211.3

237.8 238.9

62.9

6.3 7.5

ANNUALLY: 1974 1976 1976

469.6

6.0 a.

MONTHLY: 19 76--IMA Y JUNk

1977--JAN. FLb. MAR. APR. MAY P

230.2

221.7

411.3

62.2

62.3

30.7

1u.0 11.7

WEEKLY: V177-APR.

MAY

JUNE

1P 8P

83.7

I 1/ 2/

P -

ESTIMATED MONTHLY INCLUDES TREASURY PRELIMINARY

l0.7 10.6 13.4 10.0

63.2 Ii

,, -.

AVEKAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGbNG END OF CURRENT MONTH AND LUPOSIlS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS.

END OF

PRLVIOUS

MONTH REPORTcD

DAIA.

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1977, June 20). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770621

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19770621,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1977},
  month = {Jun},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770621},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}