bluebooks · October 17, 1977

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

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Content last modified 6/05/2009.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

October 14, 1977

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared or the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I FOMC

October 14,

1977

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Recent developments (1) M-1 growth picked up to a 7.7 per cent annual rate in September, and for the September-October period is projected at an 8.8 per cent annual rate, almost 2 percentage points above the upper end of the Committee's range.

Growth in the time and savings deposit component

of M-2 has shown little net change in recent weeks, despite further advances in short-term market interest rates.

Thus, M-2 is projected to increase at

about an 8.6 per cent annual rate over September and October, somewhat over the Committee's range.

Funds continued to flow into deposit accounts at

nonbank thrift institutions in September at a rate only slightly below August's very strong pace.

Reflecting the recent strong expansion of

demand and time deposits, nonborrowed reserves are expected to rise at a 9.2 per cent annual rate in the September-October period. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over September-October period

(SAAR in per cent) Ranges

Latest Estimates

M-1

2 to 7

8.8

M-2

4 to 8

8.6

Memorandum: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

6 to 6-1/2

Avg. for statement week ending Sept. 21

6.10

6.35

5 12

6.41 6.41

Oct.

-2(2)

In light of the policy agreed upon by the FOMC at its

September meeting, the Desk began to aim for a Federal funds rate of 6-1/4 per cent on the day following that meeting.

Thereafter, as incoming data

suggested that growth rates of the key aggregates would be near or above the FOMC's ranges, the funds rate was raised to 6-3/8 per cent and then to the 6-1/2 per cent upper end of its range.

Short-term market inter-

est rates have generally increased about 30 to 65 basis points since the September FOMC meeting, and long-term market yields have moved up 10 to 20 basis points.

As short-term rates rose relative to the discount

rate, member bank borrowing at the discount window increased, reaching an average of $1,051 million in the statement week just passed.

The System's

$2.5 billion direct loan to the U.S. Treasury, extended on September 30 in anticipation of the lapse in the Treasury's temporary debt ceiling, was repaid on October 4, 1977. (3)

Aggregate demands for credit have been fairly well maintained

in recent weeks.

Although outstanding short-term business debt was about

unchanged in September following two months of moderate growth, corporations continued to issue fairly substantial amounts of long-term debt. State and local governments and the U.S. Treasury have raised a substantial volume of funds in securities markets in recent weeks, and households have apparently continued to borrow heavily in the mortgage market.

With

sales of autos and other durables slackening somewhat in September, however, expansion in consumer instalment credit probably slowed a bit from August's strong pace.

-3(4)

The table on the following page shows (in terms of

percentage annual

rates of change) related monetary and financial

flows over various time periods.

Past Twelve Months

1975 &

Sept.

1976 Average

over Sept. '76

'77

Nonborrowed reserves

1.5

3.8

Total reserves

0.4

Monetary Base

Past Six Months

Sept.

'77

Past Three Months

Sept.

'77

Past Month

Sept.

'77

over June '77

over Aug. '77

4.9

5.2

16.3

5.5

8.0

9.3

1.2

6.4

8.2

9.4

10.4

8.6

5.1

7.7

9.5

10.6

7.7

10.0

10.7

9.8

10.5

8.1

12.3

12.5

11.8

13.3

12.0

M-4 (M-2 plus CD's)

7.0

9.9

9.3

7.5

M-5 (M-3 plus CD's)

10.2

11.8

11.4

12.4

11.5

Month-end basis

6.5

10.5

9.9

8.5

3.7

Average of Wednesdays

6.2

10.8

9.4

9.2

6.7

-1.2

0.0

0.2

-0.2

0.0

0.3

-0.1

-0.3

over Mar. '77

Concepts of Money M-1 (Currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M-2

(M-1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's)

M-3 (M-2 plus deposits at thrift institutions)

Bank Credit Loans and investments of all commercial banks 2/

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper

0.0

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions -- which are derived from either end-of-month or Wednesday statement date figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective Developments (5)

Displayed below for Committee consideration are four alter-

native sets of longer-run ranges for the monetary aggregates applicable to the QIII '77-QIII '78 period.

Also shown are the ranges currently

in place that pertain to the QII '77-QII '78 period. Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. D

Current

M-1

4-7

4-6½

4-6

3-5½

4-6½

M-2

6½-9

6-8½

5½-8

5-7½

7-9½

M-3

8-10½

7½-10

7-9½

6½-9

8½-11

Bank credit

7½-10½

7-10

6-9

7-10

(6)

Alternative B retains the growth range for M-1 adopted by

the Committee in July.

However, the associated ranges for M-2 and M-3

are lower than those currently in place.

The staff has assumed that

a higher average level of market interest rates would be required in the QIII '77-QIII '78 period than had been earlier contemplated to keep M-1 growth at the mid-point of a 4-6½ per cent range in the face of an apparently strengthened demand for cash balances.

Higher interest rates

would work to constrain growth in the time and savings deposit component of M-2 and M-3 by more than would be implied by the mid-points of the current ranges for those aggregates.

Alternatives A and C encompass,

respectively, slightly higher and slightly lower longer-run growth ranges for the aggregates.

Alternative D reflects a larger downward adjustment

in growth ranges, including a reduction in the M-1 range sufficient to compensate for the third-quarter overshoot in M-1 growth.

-6(7) The implications of mid-points in the proposed growth ranges for M-1 and M-2 for growth rates in these aggregates over 15-month and 18-month periods beginning in QII '77 and QI '77, respectively, and ending in QIII '78 are shown in the table below.1/ Growth Rates in Monetary Aggregates Assuming Growth over QIII '77-QIII '78 Period at near Mid-Points of Alternative Ranges (Annual rates, compounded quarterly) Period

M-1 QIII '77-QIII '78 QII '77-QIII '78 QI '77-QIII '78 Memo: QII '77-QII '78

5.6 6.4 6.8

5.3 6.1 6.6

5.0 5.9 6.4

4.2 5.3 5.8

6.6

6.4

6.2

5.6

M-2

QIII '77-QIII '78 QII '77-QIII '78 QI '77-QIII '78 Memo: QII '77-QII '78 (8)

7.9 8.5 8.6

7.5 8.1 8.3

7.0 7.8 8.0

6.4 7.3 7.6

8.6

8.3

8.0

7.5

It may be seen that under alternative D growth in M-1 at

around a 4¼ per cent rate over the QIII '77-QIII '78 period would lead to expansion in the QII '77-QIII '78 period at a 5¼ per cent annual rate --the mid-point of the current longer-run range.

Growth would be somewhat

higher if measured from QI '77 since there was also an overshoot in the second quarter for which alternative D does not compensate.

Growth of

1/ Implications for growth over longer time periods are shown in appendix IV for alternatives B and D. To permit the Committee to evaluate proposed ranges in relation to growth in the aggregates over a variety of past periods, appendix V contains growth triangles for M-1, M-2 and M-3. These tables show base periods for each quarter from QIV '74 to QII '77 and terminal periods from QI '75 to QIII '77.

-7M-1 of around 5¼ per cent in the QIII '77-QIII '78 period, as called for under alternative B, would be associated with expansion over the 15-month QII '77-QIII '78 period at an annual rate of close to 6 per cent, in the upper part of the FOMC's current longer-run range.

Under all of

the alternatives, however, growth rates in M-2 over the more extended 15- and 18-month periods would generally be near the mid-point, or in the lower half, of its current 7-9½ per cent range. (9)

Proposed shorter-run specifications to guide Desk opera-

tions in the interval between FOMC meetings (and that are believed consistent with longer-run proposals) are summarized below for Committee consideration.

(More detailed, and longer-term, data are shown in the

tables on pp. 8 and 9). Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C (or D)

Ranges for October-November M-1

3½-8½

3-8

2½-7½

M-2

6-10

5½-9½

5-9

5¾-6¼

6¼-6¾

6¾-7¼

Federal funds rate (intermeeting period) (10)

Alternative B includes a Federal funds rate centered

on the recently prevailing level of about 6½ per cent.

With such a funds

rate, M-1 growth during October-November may be in a 3-8 per cent, annual rate, range.

A relatively rapid growth appears to be in train for October,

given data thus far available for the month.

The mid-point of the October-

November range assumes a substantially slower rate of growth in November

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates

M-2 Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. D

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. D

September October November

330.4 333.7

330.4 333.1 333.5

330.4 333.1 333.3

793.0 799.0 803.4

793.0 799.0 802.9

793.0 799.0 802.4

1977

QIII QIV

328.5 334.1

328.5 333.9

328.5 333.7

328.5 333.4

788.1 803.8

788.1 803.3

788.1 802.9

788.1 802.3

1978

QI QII QIII

338.3 342.3 346.8

337.7 341.5 345.8

337.2 340.8 344.8

336.1 338.9 342.3

819.1 834.3 850.4

817.7 832.0 846.9

816.2 829.6 843.5

814.3 826.2 838.6

Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 October November

9.8 2.2

9.8 1.4

9.8 0.7

Quarterly Average: 1977 QIV

6.8

6.6

6.3

4.6 4.5

QIII

5.0 4.7 5.3

5.0

4.2 4.3 4.7

Semi-Annual: QIII '77-QI '78 QI '78-QIII '78

6.0 5.0

5.6 4.8

5.3 4.5

4.6 3.7

5.3

5.0

4.2

1977

1978

QI QII

Annual: QIII '77-QIII '78

333.1

9.1 6.6

6.0 7.6 7.4 7.7

7.9

9.1 5.9

9.1 5.1

7.7

7.5

7.2

7.2 7.0 7.2

6.6 6.6 6.7

6.0 5.8 6.0

7.5 7.1

7.1 6.7

6.6 6.0

7.5

7.0

6.4

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) M-3

Bank Credit

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. D

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. D

1977

September October November

1342.6 1356.1 1367.6

1342.6 1356.1 1366.9

1342.6 1356.1 1366.2

845.8 851.8 856.9

845.8 851.8 856.6

845.8 851.8 856.3

1977

QIII QIV

1329.6 1365.4

1329.6 1364.7

1329.6 1363.9

1329.6 1362.9

839.9 856.5

839.9 856.3

839.9 856.1

839.9 855.9

1978

QI QII

1394.9 1422.8 1451.3

1392.9 1419.4 1446.1

1390.7 1416.1 1440.9

1386.4 1409.5 1432.2

875.3 893.8 913.8

874.7 892.6 912.3

874.1 891.4 910.5

872.7 887.9 905.4

Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 October November

12.1 10.2

12.1 9.6

12.1 8.9

8.5 6.8

8.5 6.3

Quarterly Average: 1977 QIV

10.8

10.6

10.3

10.0

7.8

7.7

7.6

QIII

8.6 8.0 8.0

8.3 7.6 7.5

7.9 7.3 7.0

6.9 6.7 6.4

8.6 8.2 8.8

8.4 7.9 8.6

7.9 7.0 7.9

Semi-annual: QIII '77-QI '78 QI '78-QIII '78

9.8 8.1

9.5 7.6

9.2 7.2

8.3 8.6

8.1 8.3

7.8 7.5

Annual: QIII '77-QIII '78

9.2

8.8

8.4

8.6

8.4

7.8

QIII

1978

QI QII

7.7

8.8 8.5 9.0

8.8

-10(which would represent a pattern similar to last year's), and is consistent with growth in M-1 from the third to the fourth quarter at about a 6 cent annual rate.

per

Such a moderation in M-1 growth from the advanced

rates of the past two quarters is likely as a result of the lagged effect on money demand of the rise of about 1¼ percentage points in short-term rates that has occurred since mid-year. (11)

The staff expects, however, that even further increases

in interest rates would be required as time

goes on if growth in M-1

over the QIII '77-QIII '78 period is to be held to the mid-point of the longer-run 4-6

per cent range associated with alternative B.

This would

entail M-1 growth in the area of 4 -5 per cent, annual rate,during the first three quarters of 1978.

Given staff GNP projections and our assess-

ment of the likely strength of money demand, the Federal funds rate may peak out at about 7

per cent in the second quarter of 1978, as shown in

appendix I. (12)

Our projection of the Federal funds rate still assumes

some downward shift in demand for M-1 relative to GNP in the year ahead. However, given the rapid growth in M-1 of the past two quarters, we have assumed a somewhat slower downward shift than in the year ending in QIII '77.

If the downward shift proceeds even more slowly, or stops

entirely, upward interest rate projected.

pressures would be larger than we have

On the other hand, a rebound in economic confidence could

well be accompanied by an increased willingness to spend out of existing cash balances by businesses and consumers, as appears to have occurred in earlier stages of the current economic expansion; if this takes place, a rebound in velocity need not entail significant interest rate pressures.

-11(13) to be in a 5 -9

Growth in M-2 over the October-November period is likely per cent annual rate range under alternative B.

The time and savings deposit component of M-2 is expected to expand by only slightly more than its reduced August-September pace.

We continue

to anticipate little, if any, growth in outstanding large CD's at banks-including the large-denomination time deposits that are included in M-2-as short-term credit demands on banks remain moderate.

In addition,

market rates are above bank ceiling rates on time deposits under $100,000 and maturing in less than four years, and this may be tending to constrain inflows of such deposits. (14)

If the Federal funds rate remains around 6

per cent

over the next few weeks, short-term market rates generally may show little further change.

There has been a substantial upward adjustment of Treasury

bill rates in the last few days, and this market appears to have fully adjusted to a 6½ per cent funds rate.

In long-term markets, an enlarged

volume of corporate and municipal bond offerings is expected in October and November.

In addition, longer-term markets will have to absorb a sizable

Treasury debt offering to be announced October 21.

At that time the Trea-

sury is expected to offer $5½ to $6 billion of new issues to refund about $2½ billion of publicly-held issues maturing in mid-November and to raise about $3 to $3½ billion of new cash.

Recent upward adjustments in

intermediate- and longer-term rates may have been sufficient to accomodate this enlarged volume of bond offerings, but some further rise cannot be ruled out.

-12(15)

A tightening of the funds market to the mid-point of a

6¾-7¼ per cent range over the next few weeks is contemplated under alternatives C or D--alternatives that over the longer-run involve lower growth ranges for the monetary aggregates than alternative B.

Such a

rise in the funds rate in the weeks immediately ahead would probably be associated with a 2½-7½ per cent annual rate range for M-1 and a 5-9 per cent range for M-2. (16)

Under both alternatives C and D, interest rates would

probably have to rise further in late 1977 and in 1978 to achieve the mid-points of their respective longer-run ranges for the monetary aggregates.

Rate increases would, of course, be larger under alternative D,

which involves M-1 growth over the QIII '77-QIII '78 period at a midpoint rate of 4¼ per cent.

The funds rate under this alternative

would be expected to reach around 8¼ per cent by the third quarter of 1978, as compared with a level of 7-5/8 per cent under alternative C. Under alternative D, we have assumed an upward adjustment in Regulation Q ceilings on time deposits of ¼ percentage point across the board in the second quarter of next year. (17)

A rise in the funds rate to around 7 per cent over the

next few weeks would probably entail an increase in the 3-month bill rate to around 6-3/4 per cent, with commensurate adjustments in other short-term rates.

Long-term rates may be somewhat more sensitive to increases in

short rates over the period ahead than has been the case in the past several months.

Deposit flows to thrift institutions would very likely

-13begin to slow and this could cause mortgage yields to begin rising; given the current wide spread of mortgage over bond rates, bond yields could also be expected to adjust upwards.

Still, upward pressures on longer-

term market rates would be moderated by the sizable cash flow to insurance companies and pension funds. (18)

The easing in money market conditions over the next few

weeks under alternative A would be consistent with a shift to somewhat higher longer-run growth ranges than those of alternative B.

A decline

in the funds rate would have to be soon reversed, though, given the staff's GNP projections.

We would expect the funds rate to rise to

around 7-1/4 per cent by the second quarter of 1978 under this alternative.

-14Directive language (19)

Given below are alternatives for the operational paragraphs

of the directive.

The first formulation, like the directive adopted at

the last meeting, places main emphasis on near-term rates of growth in monetary aggregates; it shows--in strike-through form--the specifications adopted at the last meeting. on money market conditions.

The second formulation places main emphasis As suggested below, the particular language

needed in the opening lines of the money market formulation would depend on the specific conditions sought; the three alternatives shown--calling, respectively, for somewhat easier, prevailing, and somewhat firmer money market conditions--are intended to be associated with the specifications discussed in the preceding section under alternatives A, B, and C. "Monetary Aggregates" Formulation The Committee seeks to encourage near-term rates of growth in M-1 and M-2 on a path believed to be reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges preceding paragraph.

for monetary aggregates cited in

the

Specifically, at present, it expects the

September-October] OCTOBER-NOVEMBER annual growth rates over the[DEL: period to be within the ranges of [DEL: 2-to-7]____ for M-1 and [DEL: 4-to-8]____

to ____

to ____per

per cent for M-2.

cent

In the judg-

ment of the Committee such growth rates are likely to be associated with a weekly-average Federal funds rate of about [DEL: 6-1/4] ____ per cent.

If, giving, approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2,

it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period will deviate significantly from the midpoints of the indicated ranges, the

-15operational objective for the Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of [DEL: 6 to 6-1/2]____

to ____

per cent. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. "Money Market" Formulation At this time, the Committee seeks to maintain about the prevailing money market conditions (or to achieve somewhat easier or somewhat firmer money market conditions) during the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at approximately the rates currently expected, which are believed to be on a path reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph. Specifically, the Committee seeks to maintain the weekly-average Federal funds rate at about ____

per cent, so long as M-1 and

1-2 appear to be growing over the October-November period at annual rates within ranges of ____ to ____

per cent, respectively.

to ____

per cent and ____

If,giving approximately

equal

weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2month period are approaching or moving beyond the limits of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the weekly-average

-16-

Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of ____

to ____

per cent.

If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee.

Appendix I Projected Federal Funds Rate Alt. B

Alt. C

6-3/8

6-7/8

7-1/8

7-3/8

7-7/8

Alt. A 1977

QIV

1978

Alt. D

QII

7-5/8

8-1/8

QIII

7-5/8

Appendix II

Expansion in Reserves Over the Period From QIII '77 to QI '78 Consistent With Proposed Alternatives (Seas. adj. annual rates) Alit.

Alt. D

Alt. A

Alt. B

-0.9

-1.5

2.6

-3.9

Total Reserves

4.5

4.3

4.1

3.9

Monetary Base

7.6

7.5

7.4

Nonborrowed Reser*ves

Shown above are 6-month growth rates in various reserve measures consistent with the midpoints of the alternative longer-run paths for the monetary aggregates presented in this blue book.

Appendix III Implied Velocity Growth Rates V1

Alt. A

(GNP/M

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. D

1977

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.5

1978

6.1

6.4

6.5

7.1

6.3

6.2

6.4

III

5.3

5.1

5.0

V2 (GNP/M

)

1977

3.9

4.1

4.2

4.3

1978

3.6

3.7

4.1

4.3

3.6

3.7

3.9

III

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.0

Appendix IV

Growth Rates of Monetary Aggregates From Earlier Quarters to QIII '78 Implied by Mid-points of Selected Alternative Longer-run Ranges (Per cent annual rates, compounded quarterly) M-1 Base Quarter:

Alt. A

M-2 Alt. D

Alt. B

M-3 Alt. D

Alt. B

Alt. D

1975

II III IV

5.8 5.7 6.0

5.5 5.3 5.6

9.3 9.2 9.5

9.0 8.9 9.1

11.1 10.9 11.0

10.8 10.6 10.6

1976

I II III IV

6.3 6.1 6.3 6.2

5.9 5.6 5.7 5.6

9.4 9.2 9.2 8.6

8.9 8.7 8.6 8.0

10.9 10.8 10.6 10.0

10.5 10.3 10.1 9.4

1977

I II III

6.6 6.1 5.3

5.8 5.3 4.2

8.3 8.1 7.5

7.6 7.3 6.4

9.7 9.6 8.8

9.0 8.7 7.7

Note:

Alternatives A and C would encompass growth rates slightly higher and slightly lower, respectively, than those shown for alternative B.

Appendix Table V-1 MONEY STOCK-M 1 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)Base Period

Ending Period

74IV

1975--1

0.7

7511

75111

75IV

7611

76111

76IV

771

3.9

7.1

III

5.0

7.2

7.3

4.4

5.6

4.9

4.1

4.9

4.2

2.7

2.9

4.8

5.6

5.3

4.6

5.6

8.5

III

4.7

5.4

5.1

4.5

5.2

6.4

4.4

5.0

5.6

5.4

5.0

5.6

6.5

5.6

6.7

4.9

5.4

5.2

4.9

5.3

6.0

5.1

5.5

4.3

5.3

5.8

5.6

5.4

5.9

6.5

6.0

6.5

8.7

III

5.7

6.2

6.1

5.9

6.4

7.0

6.7

7.3

7.5

9.2

1976--I

1977--I

751

Based on quarterly average data.

7711

9.7

Appendix Table V-2 MONEY STOCK-M 2 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly) Base Period

Ending Period

74IV

751

7511

75111

75IV

761

7611

76III

76IV

7711

1975--1 II

8.1

10.4

III

8.9

10.4

8.3

9.2

8.5

6.6

8.7

9.4

9.1

8.4

10.2

9.1

9.7

9.6

9.3

10.6

10.9

III

9.1

9.7

9.5

9.3

10.2

9.6

10.2

10.1

10.0

10.9

11.1

11.2

13.1

9.7

10.2

10.1

10.8

10.9

11.7

10.3

9.7

10.1

10.0

10.6

10.7

10.6

11.0

9.9

9.5

III

9.8

10.2

10.1

10.6

10.7

10.6

10.9

10.2

10.1

1976--1

1977--1

10.5

Based on quarterly average data.

9.4

10.7

Appendix Table V-3 MONEY STOCK-M 3 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)-

Base Period

Ending Period

741V

751

7511

75111

75IV

761

7611

76111

761V

771

7711

1975--1 II

10.4

12.9

III

11.5

13.3

13.7

11.1

12.2

11.8

11.3

12.1

11.8

10.9

11.9

11.4

12.2

12.0

11.4

12.1

12.3

11.5

12.1

11.9

11.5

12.0

12.1

11.9

12.0

12.5

12.2

12.8

13.1

13.5

15.2

11.9

12.5

12.4

12.2

12.6

12.8

12.9

13.5

11.8

12.2

12.1

11.9

12.2

12.3

12.5

11.1

10.4

III

11.9

12.3

12.2

12.0

12.3

12.4

12.6

11.7

11.6

1976--1

II III 1977--1IV

Based on quarterly average data.

12.9

10/14/77

CHART 1I

MONETARY AGGREGATES MONEY SUPPLY M NARROW r...1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

340

- 320

-335 7% growth for

-Oct. 5/77)

-300

330 I280 growth

800

325

780

320

760

740

720

700

-680

1976

1977

S 1977

CHART 2

10/14/77

MONETARY AGGREGATES BANK CREDIT

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

OF MONTH

900

860

820

780

740

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 36

1976

1977

CHART 3

10/14/77

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES EY MARKET CONDITIONS

PER CENT

INTEREST RATES Short-term

PER CENT 8

INTEREST RATES Long-term

LY AVERAGES

F.R. DISCOUNT RATE -

-- s

FEDERAL

BILLIONS OF DOLLAI

I 1976

1977

3 1976

1977

PER CENT

Table 1

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES OCT.

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply road Narrow (M2) 1 2

Period Perio(Ml)

Total U.S. Govt. Deposits 1/ 3

Time & Savings Deposits Other Than CD's Other Savins 5 6 7

Total

CD's 8

14,

1977

Nondeposit Sources of Funds 2( 9

MONTHLY LEVELS-SBIL 1977-JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT.

326.8 328.3 330.4 (333.1)

783.5 787.7 793.0 (799.0)

(

11.6 10.2 10.7 11.6)

456.7 459.4 462.6 (465.9)

519.5 522.5 525.8 (531.2)

213.8 216.2 217.8 (218.2)

242.9 243.1 244.8 (247.7)

(

62.8 63.2 63.2 65.3)

55.9 57.9

1 ANNUAL GROWTH OUARTERLY 1C/7--1R1 CTh. 2ND OTR. 3PD OTR.

3.8 8.2 10.6

6.5 8.8 10.5

0.0 -39.3 23.8

9.5 9.5 8.5

11.9 9.4 10.4

15.4 4.0 10.4

b.7 14.2 10.4

-7.0 10.9 -4.4

4.2 8.4 9.j

9.9 9.2 10.3

-48.0 -18.2 15.2

12.5 8.3 10.0

14.0 9.8 11.0

21.9 7.9 6.8

7.1 11.6 14.6

1.9 -1.9 3.2

(

18.3 5.5 7.7 9.0)

(

16.6 6.. 8.1 9.1)

(

15.4 7.1 8.4 8.6)

(

8.5 13.5 8.9 2.2)

21.6 1.0 b.4 14.2)

(

-20.7 7.6 0.0 39.9)

(

8.6)

(

8.6)

(

8.5)

(

5.6)

11.4)

(

19.9)

QUARTERLV-AV 1977-1ST OTR. 2ND (TR. 3RD CTR.

MCNTHLY 1977--JULY AU(. SFPT. U0C . SEPT.-OCT. WEEKLY

(

11.0 6.9 7.6 12.3)

(

10.0)

82.4)

(

LEVELS-SblL

1977-PT.

OCT.

NOTE: 1/ 2/

202.0 -162.7 58.8 ( 100.9)

7 14 21 2H

329.7 331.7 330.6 3s9.5

791.5 794.1 793.2 792.6

7.3 8.6 12.9 12.3

524.7 525.1 525.5 527.0

461.8 462.4 4t2.6 463.1

217.6 217.8 217.9 218.0

244.2 244.6 244.7 245.1

62.9 6&.7 62.9 63.9

334.4

799.1

13.1

529.7

464.7

218.2

246.5

6b.0

58.3 65.2 59.7 63.2

P - PRELIMINARY DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. INCLUDES ,_RROINGS FROM UTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN IHE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SECURITIES SOLD UNDER AGREEMENTS TL REPURCHASE, AND OTHhR LIABILITIFS FOR BORROWED MONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO DWN FOREIGN BRANCHES LOANS SLLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN KPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. (-URODOLLAk BORROWINGS),

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS IIFOMC

TABLE 2

BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period

MONYHLY LEVI L

ANNUAL

Total Reserves

Nonborrowed Reserves

Monetary Base

Total Required

Private Demand

Total Time Deposits

Gov't. and Interbank

12j.4.6H , 1;4,i97 1 ,l191 1126 1,01)

j5,071 35,441 35,418 (35,694)

f0,998 11,18 21,279 (21,3571

-4. 4.0t 5.2

5.1 6.4" 10.4

-1.1 7, -.1

13.2

2.6 1.9 3.6

6.8 7.2 9.7

Z.J 3.5 8.6

5.0 3.0 10.2

S.5 4.l. 6.3

-I ILLiL'LN

1977--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. PERCET

REQUIRED RESERVES

35,3535,641 35,676 (36,012)

35,029

34,560 35,050 (35,110)

12 ,.4 1,3,9 12.ba36 (12,''4

,6 1, '>l, 1,751 I 1,d,3) 1

(.,OwlTH

QiJu Th-kLY 1977--1ST ZNh 3RD

-1.8 6.5 9.3

OTR. QTR. OTR.

-.9

3.7

3.*

I.1

QUAP TERLY- V 1977--151 QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD TR.

2.7 3.0 9.2

MONTHLY 1977-JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. SEPT.-OCT.

16.9 9.8 1.2 11.3)

6.2)

14.

14.' -15.4 16.3 2.1) 1

(

8.6 8.7)

(

8.7)

(

9.2)

8.1

12.5 12.5 -0.8 9. . 4.3)

(

23.1 12.b 3.5 4.4)

(

7.5 0.5 -0.1 6.4)

(

3.9)

(

3.1)

WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLINS 1977-StPT.

OCT.

7 14 21 Z2

35,497 35,890 35.395 35,750

34,6b6 35,553 34,657 35,031

124,596 125,203 124,998 125,745

35,266 35,569 35,398 35,311

21,025 21449 21,290 21,339

12,396 12,412 12,369 12,36R

1 844' 1,708 1,719 1 604

5 12

36.285 35,251

35,402 34,195

125,971 124,977

35,865 35,023

21,316 21,091

12,346 12,403

2 199 1,529

NOTE:

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURREN1 PROJECTIONS.

ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREHENT RATIO.

TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES1/ ($ million, not seasonally adjusted)

Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Treasury Bills Within Net Change 2/ 1 year

Period

1977--Qtr. I Qtr. II Qtr. III

1,164 2,126

1977--Apr. May June

1,392

196 1,070 642

171 77

881 794

345 232

160 192

1,557 1,294

192 109 116

997 526 681

325 171 96

165 152 128

1,680 959 1,021

Sept.

3 10

-176

450

24 31

362

7 14 21 28

-603 296

53 1,363

116

681

128

5 -10

-41

173 233

-1,136 636 1,385

Over 10

592 400 1,665 824 469

1,021

138

113 S S

Total

Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/

Net RP's 6/

1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891

1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227

-1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607

115

1,398 436

392 304

2,738 3,666 4,273

-4,771 4,175 -2,331

2,176

2,822 -3,207 4,561

346 --- 380 --

---254

1,744 ----1,159 552 4,881

-2,861 -1,353 1,883 -2,009 -4,604 3,347 -1,028 3,521

----

57 -

347 -

S6 -

333 --

28.1

5 12 19 26

124 -459

LEVEL--Oct. 12 (in billions)

42.1

13.0

Oct.

167 129

Within 1 year

-208 942

July Aug. Sept. 1977--Aug.

886

Total 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187

-468 863

Over 10

539 500 434 1,510 1,048

1,280

-886

5 -10

Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/

789 579 797 3,284 3,025

-490 7,232

1976--Qtr. III Qtr. IV

1 -5

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 14, 1977

41 -

500 -

40 --

87 --

520 --

10.5

6.7

58.4

-603

-6,625 4,519 24 6,816

271

--- --- -

--- 553 1,363

-----

--- --- --- --- -459

-5,482 -1,333

1.3

3.7

1.5

7.3

107.8

-2.1

645

Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars)

U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions

1976--High Low

Underwriting IMember Syndicate Positions Corporate Municipal Excess** Reserves Bonds Bonds

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 14, 1977

(FR)

Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit** 8 New York

38 Others

242 24

-8,161 -2,367

-12,744

513 -111

1,665 20

-8,742 -4,234

-13,975

Bills

Coupon Issues

8,896 3,668

3,046 175

334 0

655 -180

Tol

Seasonal

- 6,908

1977--High Low

7,234 1,729

3,017 -1,445

278 0

1976--Sept.

7,838

1,509

205

-5,703

- 9,716

6,271

Dec.

6,876 8,005

1,832 2,418 2,443

94 79 145

221 257 274

94 72 53

-6,428 -6,289 -7,168

-10,527 -11,618 -11,449

1977--Jan. Feb. Mar.

6,406 4,450 4,906

2,320 1,650 972

82 72 103

265 198 214

68 72 103

-6,421 -5,604 -5,661

-11.504 -11,503 -10,912

Apr. May June

4,567 3,072 4,752

696 123 206

101 20 142

192 213 154

73 206 262

-6,586 -5,693 -5,341

-11,409 -10,175 -10,332

July Aug. Sept.

3,899r 2,533r *4,812

-309r -933r *-313

143 71 128

275 200 259p

323 1,084 626p

-6,391 -5,581 6 8 - , 52p

-11,012 -11,452 -11,233p

598 585 901 1,665 1,393

-6,675 -6,458 -5,534 -4,969 -4,892

- 9,792

-7,285 -7,990 -7,441 -6,433p

-11,729 -12,979 -12,249

-6,776p -11,284p

- 8,930p -10,282p

Oct. Nov.

3 10 17 24 31

2,176 1,910 2,171 3,338 2,906

1,265 -494 -1,445 -1,231 -379

76 78 52 76 69

424 103 202 28 371

Sept.

7 14 21 28

4,562 4,998 *5,927 *3,976

263 -268 *-682 *-272

96 190 126 158

231 321 -3

Oct.

5 12 19

*3,898 *3,868

*-777 *-216

1977--Aug.

54 2 5p

636 337 738 719p

420p 251p

883p 1,051p

439

- 8,570

-11,765 -12,313 -12,161 -10,279

- 8,604p

NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financing by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures.

* **

Strictly confidential. Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent)

Treasury

CLASS II

- FOMC

OCTOBER 14, 1977

Short-term Bills Commercial CD's New U.S. Govt.-Constant Paper Issue-NYC _ Maturity Yields 1-Year 90-119 Day 60-Day 90-Da 3-vr 7-vr 20-vr (6) (7) (8) (9) (3) (4) (5)

Long-term Corp.-Aaa Utility Municipall Home Mortgages I New Recently Bond Primary Secondary Market ssue Offered Buyer Conv. FNMA AucGNMA Sec. (12) (13) (14) (15) (10) (11)

Federal Funds (1)

90-Day (2)

1976--High Low

5.58 4.63

5.53 4.27

6.32 4.62

5.90 4.63

5.63 4.40

5.75 4.50

7.52 5.65

7.89 6.33

8.17 7.23

8.95 7.93

8.94 7.84

7.13 5.83

9.10 8.70

9.20 8.39

8.45 7.57

1977--High Low

6.41 4.47

6,22 4.41

6.52 4.67

6.43 4.63

6.38 4.48

6.63 4.63

7.17 5.83

7.47 6.59

7.78 7.26

8.34 7.90

8.33 7.95

5.93 5.48

8.95 8.65

8.79 8.46

8.16 7.56

1976--Sept.

5.25

5.08

5.50

5.33

5.11

5.24

6.66

7.41

7.78

8.29

8.33

6.51

8.98

8.88

8.10

5.03 4.95 4.65

4.92 4.75 4.35

5.19 5.00 4.64

5.10 4.98 4.66

4.90 4.84 4.68

5.04 4.94 4.50

6.24 6.09 5.68

7.16 6.86 6.37

7.70 7.64 7.30

8.25 8.17 7.94

8.24 8.18 7.93

6.30 6.29 5.94

8.93 8.81 8.79

8.75 8.66 8.45

7.98 7.93 7.59

1977--Jan. Feb. Mar.

4.61 4.68 4.69

4.62 4.67 4.60

5.00 5.16 5.19

4.72 4.76 4.75

4.61 4.58 4.58

4.68 4.70 4.72

6.22 6.44 6.47

6.92 7.16 7.20

7.48 7.64 7.73

8.08 8.22 8.25

8.09

5.87

8.72

8.48

7.83

8.19

5.89

8.67

8.55

7.98

8.29

5.89

8.69

8.68

8.06

Apr.

4.54 4.96 5.02

5.10 5.43 5.41

4.75 5.26 5.42

4.57 5.04 5.24

4.67 5.16 5.35

6.32 6.55 6.39

7.11 7.26 7.05

7.67 7.74 7.64

8.26 8.33 8.08

8.22

5.73

8.75

8.67

7.96

June

4.73 5.35 5.39

8.31 8.12

5.75 5.62

8.83 8.86

8.74 8.75

8.04 7.95

July Aug. Sept.

5.42 5.90 6.14

5.19 5.49 5.81

5.57 5.97 6.13

5.38 5.75 6.09

5.16 5.65 5.95

5.28 5.78 6.01

6.51 6.79 6.84

7.12 7.24 7.21

7.60 7.64 7.57

8.14 8.04 8.07

8.12

5.63

8.95

8.72

7.96

8.05 8.07

5.62 5.51

8.94 8.90

8.76 8.74

8.03 8.02

3 10 17 24 31

5.80 5.70 5.94 5.99 6.02

5.37 5.40 5.57 5.52 5.56

5.82 5.88 6.05 6.04 5.99

5.49 5.60 5.80 5.89 5.88

5.50 5.50 5.76 5.75 5.72

5.65 5.65 5.90 5.86 5.85

6.74 6.81 6.85 6.78 6.72

7.27 7.30 7.29 7.18 7.11

7.66 7.69 7.68 7.58 7.52

8.10

5.63

8.95

8.04

8.07 8.11 8.01 7.97

8.05

5.63

8.95

8.75

8.04

5.63

8.93

8.08

8.03

5.58

8.93

8.77

8.04

8.02

5.54

8.88

7.97

7 14 21 28

5.97 6.05 6.10 6.35

5.57 5.80 5.87 5.93

5.98 6.14 6.10 6.21

5.88 6.01 6.17 6.22

5.70 5.91 5.97 6.20

5.75 6.00 6.00 6.28

6.75 6.84 6.86 6.94

7.15 7.22 7.22 7.26

7.52 7.57 7.59 7.61

8.02 8.08 8.08 8.14

8.03

5.48

8.90

8.74

7.96

8.07 8.09

5.51 5.50

8.90 8.90

-8.74

8.07 8.01

8.12

5.51

8.90

8.08

5 12 19

6.41 6.41

5.98 6.22

6.29 6.52

6.31 6.43

6.20 6.38

6.30 6.63

6.97 7.17p

7.3.2 7.47p

7.63 7,71p

8.15 2 8. 0p

8.14 8.21p

5.60 5.70

8.93 n.a.

8.77 --

8.09 8.16

6 13

6.41 6.50p

6.13 6.36

6.42 6.64

6.38 6.50

6.98 7 .21p

7.34 7.47p

7.63 7.73p

Oct. Nov. Dec.

May

1977--Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Daily--Oct.

NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 through 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 11 and 12 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 13 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 14 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 15 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for shortterm forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling.

OCT.

14,

1977

Appendix Table 1-A

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES Money Stock Measures

Bank Reservesdt Period Total

Nonborrowed

Monetary Base

Total Loans and Invest-

ments

(PER CENT ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH)

ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976

7.0 -0.2 1.0

7.7 3.2 1.2

9.1 5.9 6.9

10. 3.9 6.0

5.1 4.4 5.6

7.7 8.3 10.9

7.1 11.1 12.8

10.6 6.5 7.1

9.0 9.7 10.3

8.9 10.5 10.0

9.5 10.1 10.2

2/ SEM1-ANNUALLYV 1ST HALF 2ND HALF

1976 1976

-1.5 3.6

-1.3 3.7

6.9 6.8

6.7 8.9

5.6 5.5

10.3 10.9

11.8 13.1

6.0 8.0

8.9 11.1

9.2 10.3

9.6 10.4

IST HALF

1977

2.9

2.3

7.0

10.5

6.4

9.7

10.8

9.0

10.3

10.2

10.4

QUARTERLYS 47H QTR.

1976

7.6

7.7

8.0

11.2

7.2

13.4

14.5

12.4

13.8

11.9

11.6

1ST 01R. 2ND OTR. 3RD QTR.

1977 1977 1977

-1.6 6.5 9.3

-2.4 4.6 5.2

5.1 8.2 10.4

9.5 11.2 8.5

3.8 8.2 10.6

8.5 8.8 10.5

10.0 9.9 13.3

7.3 9.1 9.3

9.2 10.0 12.4

10.1 9.7 11.8

10.5 9.9 11.6

QUARTERLY-AV: 4TH QTR.

1976

4.4

4.8

7.1

10.8

6.5

12.5

14.4

9.8

12.7

11.1

11.0

1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR.

1977 1977 1977

2.7 3.0 9.2

2.6 1.9 3.6

6.8 7.2 9.7

8.8 11.9 9.4

4.2 5.4 9.3

9.9 9.2 10.3

11.3 10.0 12.3

9.3 8.5 9.7

10.9 9.4 11.9

10.7 9.5 11.3

10.8 9.8 11.2

1976--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

-6.2 6.0 11.8 4.9

-4.8 4.9 12.6 5.6

5.1 7.1 9.1 7.7

7.6 13.5 11.1 8.6

1.6 13.7 0.0 7.7

10.0 16.1 10.6 13.1

13.3 16.9 12.6 13.4

6.2 13.5 9.7 13.4

10.b 15.3 11.9 13.7

b.6 14.1 10.8 10.5

8.7 13.8 10.5 10.3

1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT.

10.9 -13.1 -3.1 13.0 1.5 4.8 16.9 9.8 1.2

10.4 -13.3 -4.3 14.1 -3.1 2.9 14.9 -15.4 16.3

10.6 -0.2 5.0 11.8 6.2 6.4 14.2 8.1 8.6

3.7 14.7 10.0 14.0 10.3 8.9 9.3 12.3 3.7

5.4 0.8 5.4 19.4 0.7 4.5 18.3 5.5 7.7

9.7 7.1 8.6 13.5 4.7 8.1 16.6 6.4 8.1

11.4 8.9 9.4 12.4 7.3 9.8 16.0 11.4 12.0

8.7 7.0 6.2 11.7 5.4 10.0 13.6 6.5 7.5

10.8 8.1 8.0 11.3 7.6 10.7 14.3 11.2 11.5

10.9 11.4 7.8 10.6 7.7 10.5 13.3 10.7 11.1

11.0 11.7 8.5 10.8 7.9 10.6 12.9 10.5 11.0

MONTHLY:

1/ 2/ P -

BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. PRELIMINARY

REQUIREMENTS.

Appendix Table 1-B

OCT.

14,

1977

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

s hak Crede

Bak Roservs Period Total

Nonborrowed

Monetary Ba s

Total Loans and

Y Stock

Mesaures

Invest-

ments

ANNUALLY: 34,174 34,015 34,405

33,447 33,885 34,412

104,380 110,394 118,054

695.2 725.5 788.2

283.1 312.4

612.4 664.3 740.3

961.5 1092.6 1237.1

701.4 746.5 803.5

1070.5 1174.7 1300.3

1181.2 1308.3 1439.1

1221.6 1351.1 1488.8

33,823

33,761

115.739

766.8

306.9

716.3

1193.9

779.4

1257.0

1397.5

1446.7

33,992 34,325 34,465

33,898 34,253

116,424 117,304 118,054

775.4 782.6 788.2

310.4 310.4 31i.4

725.9 732.3 740.3

1210.7 1223.4 1237.1

788.2 794.6 803.5

1273.0 1285.6 1300.3

1413.9 1426.6 1439.1

1463.3 1476.1 1486b.

1977--JAN. FEB. MAR.

34,778 34,397 34,308

349710 34,326

34,204

119,100 119,077 119,572

790.6 800.3 807.0

313.8 314.0 315.4

746.3 750.7 756.1

1248.9 1258.2 1268.1

809.3 814.0 818.2

1312.0 1321.5 1330.3

1452.2 1466.0 1475.5

1502.4 1517.1 1527.8

APR. MAY JUNE

34,680 34.723 34,662

34,606 34,517 34.599

120,749 121,376 122,027

816.4 823.4 829.5

320.5 320.7 321.9

764.6 767.6 772.8

1281.2 1289.0 1299.5

826.2 829.9 636.6

1342.8 1351.3 1363.4

1488.5 1498.1 1511.2

1541.6 1551.6 1565.5

JULY AUG. SEPT.

35,029 34,580 35,050

123,468 124,297 125,191

835.9

32b.8 326.3 330.4

783.5 767.7 793.0

1316.8 1329.3 1342.6

846.3 850.9 856.2

1379.6 1392.5 1405.8

1527.9 1541.5 1555.6

1582.3 1596.2

35,3*2 35,641 35,676

10 17 24 31

35,635 35,705 35,258 35,745

35,050 34,907 33,593 34,352

123,931 124,226 124,044 124,827

327.2 327.5 327.4 330.5

786.0 786.8 787.2 791.2

849.3

7 14 21

28P

35,497 358b90 35,395 35,750

34t,61 350553 34,657 35 031

124,596 125,203 124,998 125,745

329.7 331.7 330.o 329.5

791.5 794.1 793.2 792.6

854.3 856.6 656.1 656.5

36,285

35,402

125,971

334.4

799.1

664.1

1974 1975 1976

294.8

MONTHLY: 1976--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

34,412

644.5

847.1

1610.8

WEEKLY:

1q77-AUG.

SEPT.

7 OCT.

;;

850.1 850.4 854.3

WEEKLY OATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STAEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. M3, MS, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY

NOTES:

WEEKLY DATA

ARE NOT AVAILABLE

FOR

OCT.14,

1977

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period

Time and Deposits nd Savings S v n D m Other Than CD's

CurrncyDemand

PerioDepurrency Deposits Total I

Total

Savings

Other I

CD's 7

Mutual Savings Bank & S&L V-ns S,haresU ha .s 8

Other Short Ter Private U.S.Gov't Short-term Securities Assets

Credit Union Shares-l Ceit

, Savings Bonds

(Per cent annual rates of growth)

ANNUALLY: 2/ 1974 1975 1976

10.3 8.8 9.6

3.6 2.Q 4.3

14.7 8.0 8.1

10.1 11.7 15.2

6.5 17.4 25.0

12.7 7.8 7.7

36.5 -6.1 -23.5

5.6 15.5 15.6

12.3 19.4 17.8

4.7 6.2 6.9

13.5 33.4 7.5

.9.6 -1.0 19.2

10.7 8.0

4.0 4.6

6.3 9.7

14.1 15.2

27.6 19.7

3.8 11.4

-28.9 -21.1

13.8 16.2

16.6 17.6

6.3 7.2

16.6 -1.4

21.6 15.2

6.5

5.7

10.5

12.1

15.1

9.4

0.0

12.2

lo.1

6.4

12.5

16.5

6.6

7.4

15.7

16.1

27.5

10.0

1.3

15.9

18.2

6.2

-16.1

8.4 8.8 11.4

2.2 8.2 10.3

9.5 9.5 8.5

11.9 9.4 10.4

15.4 4.0 10.4

8.7 14.2 10.4

-7.0 10.9 -4.4

12.0 11.1 17.3

16.4 13.6 20.0

6.1 6.6 7.0

1976

8.1

6.0

12.2

17.1

24.7

10.8

-18.9

17.2

18.5

7.4

1ST OTR. 1977 2ND QTR. 1977 3RD QTR. 1977

7.5 9.3 10.0

3.1 a.3 8.9

12.5 8.3 10.0

14.0 9.8 11.0

21.9 7.9 6.b

7.1 11.6 14.6

1.9 -1.9 3.2

13.3 10.9 15.0

16.7 15.0 18.3

6.7 6.1 6.5

11.1 13.6 5.5

12.9 19.5 7.4

9.2 9.1 6.0 4.5

-1.1 15.3 -2.1 8.9

9.2 13.5 16.1 17.1

16.3 17.9 18.8 16.8

23.3 19.6 29.9 31.0

11.0 15.8 9.7 4.3

-35.1 -15.2 -1.9 21.2

18.0 18.0 15.3 13.8

19.6 19.3 15.8 18.

10.3 5.1 6.8 6.7

-28.6 0.0 -3.4 -44.9

9.8 7.3 0.0 4.8

8.9 10.4 5.9 13.1 7.2 5.7 15.7 5.6 12.6

4.1 -3.1 5.7 21.6 -1.5 4.6 18.2 6.0 6.4

11.0 10.7 6.7 6.9 6.3 13.2 11.0 6.9 7.6

12.9 11.7 10.7 9.5 7.6 10.7 15.4 7.1 8.4

21.9 13.4 10.4 9.7 4.5 -2.3 8.5 13.5 8.9

4.8 10.6 10.5 9.4 10.3 22.5 21.6 1.0 8.4

-3.8 3.8 -20.9 -11.6 13.6 30.8 -20.7 7.6 0.0

14.2 11.4 10.0 10.4 11.1 11.5 14.9 1.6 17.6

15.4 15.2 18.0 11.8 11.7 17.4 20.0 19.7 19.4

6.7 6.6 5.0 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.4 8.0

17.9 68.9 5.0 3.3 11.6 9.9 0.0 6.5 8.1

12.1 21.5 28.2 18.4 15.8 11.2 2.2 6.6 6.6

2/ SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF 1976 2ND HALF 1976 1ST

HALF 1977

QUARTERLY: 4TM QTR. 1976 IST OTR. 2NO OTR. 3RD QTR.

1977 1977 1977

31.1 8.3 4.9

4.1 20.9 15.3 5.2

QUARTERLY-AV: 4TH QTR.

-11.9

7.4

MONTHLY: 1976--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. P

1/ GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 2/ BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. P - PRELIMINARY.

BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

OCT.

14,

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Currency Demand Deposits

Period

Total

Mutual Credit Time and CurencyDemanSavings Savings Deposits iriSd UniU.S. Ban Other Than CD's C' & S& Shar Bngs i ta Savns Shar SOther es Sha Total [Savingsl Other haereSec 4

ShortGt Gov't

O tee P PTerm t

ter

1977

NonDeposit Funds

Tota Total Gov't Demand epo p: 4

ecI 11

ANNUALLY 1974 1975 1976

67.8 73.7 80.5

215.3 221.0 231.9

418.3 451.7 491.1

329.3 369.0 427.9

136.2 161.0 202.4

193.1 208.0 225.5

89.0 82.1 63.3

341.5 395.2 457.

27.6 33.0 39.0

63.3 67.3 71.9

47.4 o6.3 66.9

40.4 4-.d *4.7

37.o 33.7 51..

8.3 11.2

6.0

MONTHLYt 79.2

227.7

472.5

409.4

189.4

220.0

63.1

440.3

37.3

70.8

o9.7

49.2

-2.0

12.0

OCT. NOV. DEC.

79.8 80.2 60.5

230.6 230.2 231.9

477.3 484.2 491.1

415.5 422.0 427.9

102.5 197.3 ZC02.4

222.9 224.7 425.5

62.3 62.2 63.3

446.9 452.6 457,8

37.9 38.4 39.0

71.1 71.5 71.9

69.7 69.5 66.9

49.5 <9.5

43.8 ~8.2 51.4

.3.2 13.0

1977--JAN. FEB. MAR.

81.1 81.8 82.2

232.7 232.1 233.2

495.6 500.0 502.8

432.5 436.7 440.6

206.1

22b.4 228.4 230.4

63.1 63.3 62.2

463.2 467.6 471.5

39.5 40.0 40.6

72.3 72.7 73.0

67.9 71.8 72.1

10.0

52.3

50.3 50.7 52.7

APR. MAY JUNE

83.1 83.6

237.4 237.1 238.0

505.7 509.2 514.8

444.1 446.9 450.9

211.9 212.7

232.2 234.2 23P.6

61.6 6Z.3 63.9

475.6 480.0 484.6

41.0 41.4 42.0

73.4 73.8 74.2

72.3 73.0 73.6

53.1 53.8 54.3

52.7 50.2 55.9

10.8 10.6 10.1

213.8 216.2 217.8

242.9

62.8 63.2 63.2

*90.6 498.2 505.5

42.7 43.4

74.6 75.0 75.5

73.6 74.0 7.5S

54.4 54.7 55.0

55.9 57.9

11.6

243.1 24'. .

1976--SEPT.

84.0

206.4 210.2

212.3

49 .7

51.1

11.2

11.7 11.2

85.1 85.5 86.4

241.6 242.8

244.1

519.5 522.5 525.8

456.7 459.4 462.6

24 31

85.4 85.4 85.6 85.8

241.8 242.1 241.7 244.7

522.0 522.6 523.0 523.8

456.8 459.3 459.9 460.7

215.7 216.2 216.6 216.8

243.0 243.0 243.3 243.9

63.3 63.3 63.1 63.1

59.. 59.0 57.4 58.4

7 14 21 28P

86.2 66.1 86.4 86.7

;43. 245.6 244.2 242.7

524.7 525.1 525.5 527.0

461.8 462.4 462.6 463.1

217.o 217.0 217.9 218.0

244.2 244.6 244.7 245.1

62.9 62.7 62.9 63.9

58.3 65.2

7.3

59.7

12.9

63.2

12.3

86.6

.47.7

529.7

464.7

218.2

246.5

65.0

JULY AUG. SEPT.

44.

10.2 10.7

WEEKLY: 1977-AUG.

SEPT.

OCT.

-1/ 2/ 3/

ESTIMATEO MLNTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED SY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. INCLUDES PRIVATE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS' HOLDINGS OF COMMERCIAL PAPER, BANKERS ACCEPTANCES, SECURITY RP'S AND MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUND SHARES. BORROWINGS BY BANKS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PuKCHASE3, SECURITIES SOLO UNDER AGREEMENTS 1' REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FCR BORRLWED MONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES (EURODOLLAR BORR4WING1S) LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES. LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER EANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY

10.2 10.5

10.7 8.5

8.6

13.1

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1977, October 17). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19771018

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19771018,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1977},
  month = {Oct},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19771018},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}