bluebooks · December 19, 1977

Bluebook

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Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

December 16,

1977

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I

December 16,

1977

- FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1)

M-1 declined at a 1.8 per cent annual rate in November,

following its sharp advance in October.

With growth apparently resuming

in December, M-1 is projected to increase at a 2 per cent annual rate over November and December, 1 percentage point above the lower end of its FOMC range.

Expansion in M-2 also weakened significantly in

November and for November-December is projected at an annual rate of 6 per cent, also about 1 percentage point above the lower end of its range.

Growth in the interest-bearing component of M-2 has remained

relatively strong in recent weeks, reflecting a sharp rise in the large denomination time deposits included in this measure.

Balances in small

time and savings deposit accounts, on the other hand, are estimated to have declined somewhat in November, apparently in lagged response to the rise in market interest rates that occurred in late summer and early fall.

Inflows to deposit accounts at nonbank thrift institutions

also weakened markedly in November. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over November-December Period (SAAR in per cent)

Ranges

Latest Estimates

M-1

1 to 7

2.0

M-2

5 to 9

6.0

Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

Avg. for statement week ending Nov.

6.42

23 30 Dec. 7 14

6.51 6.55 6.51 6.49

-2(2)

Throughout the period since the November 15 FOMC meeting,

projections of growth rates of the key monetary aggregates for the November-December period have been well within the ranges specified by the Committee.

Accordingly, the Account Management has continued

to aim for reserve conditions consistent with Federal funds trading around 6½ per cent. (3)

Total reserves are projected to expand at a moderate

5 per cent annual rate over the November-December period.

Nonborrowed

reserves, however, are expected to rise at an 18 per cent annual rate, reflecting the substantial decline in member bank borrowing over the past several weeks. In response to the October 26 increase in the discount rate, member bank borrowing from Federal Reserve Banks dropped from the average October level of $1.3 billion to an average of about $550 million in the first two weeks of December. (4)

In addition to the sizable increase in large denomination

time deposits included in M-2, negotiable CD's at weekly reporting banks also expanded sharply further in November.

Together, the

increase in both forms of large denomination time deposits amounted to a record $9½ billion, substantially greater than October's relatively large increase of just over $5 billion.

Banks have been

issuing substantial volumes of such instruments recently in order to raise funds to meet strong credit demands at a time when flows into demand and other time and savings deposits have been weak.

-3(5)

The substantial further rise in bank credit in November

was concentrated in loan portfolios, as continued liquidation of Treasury securities more than offset a further rise in other security holdings.

Business loans again expanded at a rapid pace, and gains

in mortgages and consumer loans are also estimated to have been quite large.

The advance in business loans--which apparently occurred at

both large and small banks--extends the more rapid upward trend observable since around mid-year. (6)

With the Federal funds rate remaining essentially

unchanged and published data indicating that growth in the aggregates was weakening significantly, most market participants appear to have concluded that the System would not change its funds rate target over the remainder of this year.

Against this background, the general level

of short-term interest rates has remained essentially unchanged.

How-

ever, some minor realignments in relationships among individual rates have occurred:

rates on private short-term instruments have edged a

bit higher, apparently in response to the large volume of bank CD's being offered, while

Treasury bill

rates have edged down somewhat, reflect-

ing, in part, the impact of substantial foreign central bank acquisitions of these securities. (7)

In longer-term markets, on the other hand, yields have

generally moved somewhat higher.

The increase in longer-term yields

appears to reflect in part an upward revision in interest rate projections for next year, as market participants apparently have interpreted

-4recently published data, such as the upward revision in third quarter GNP and the November rise in employment, as indicating stronger than previously anticipated economic activity in prospect for next year. In addition, market expectations may have been influenced by larger than anticipated Treasury borrowing in recent weeks, as well as by increased prospects for a tax cut in 1978. (8)

The table on the following page shows (in terms of

percentage annual rate of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods.

1975 & 1976 Average

Past Twelve Months Nov. '77 over Nov. '76

Nonborrowed reserves

1.5

2.6

3.7

6.6

19.4

Total reserves

0.4

4.9

7.4

4.2

3.8

Monetary Base

6.4

8.2

9.2

8.6

8.1

5.1

7.3

7.8

5.8

-1.8

10.0

9.6

9.1

7.6

4.5

12.3

11.6

11.8

10.8

7.3

M-4 (M-2 plus CD's)

7.0

9.9

10.5

10.6

10.5

M-5 (M-3 plus CD's)

10.2

11.7

12.6

12.5

10.8

Month-end basis

6.5

11.2

10.3

9.8

11.8

Average of Wednesdays

6.2

11.1

11.9

10.7

12.9

-1.1

0.7

1.4

2.6

4.5

0.0

0.2

0.0

-0.3

-0.4

Past Six Months Nov. '77 over May '77

Past Three Months Nov. '77 over Aug. '77

Past Month Nov. '77 over Oct. '77

Concepts of Money M-1 (Currency plus demand

deposits) 1/ M-2 (M-1 plus time deposits

at commercial banks other than large CD's)

M-3 (M-2 plus deposits at thrift institutions)

Bank Credit Loans and investments of all commercial banks 2/

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change

in billions) Large CD's

Nonbank commercial paper

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions --which are derived from either end-of-month or Wednesday statement date figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (9)

The table below presents, for the Committee's con-

sideration, three alternative sets of specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate for the forthcoming intermeeting period.

(More detailed and longer-term data for the aggregates

are shown in the tables on pp. 7 and 8). Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Ranges for December-January M-1

4 to 10

3½ to 9½

3 to 9

M-2

6½ to 10½

6 to 10

5½ to 9½

5¾ to 6¼

6¼ to 6¾

6¾ to 7¼

Federal funds rate (Inter-meeting period) (10)

In view of the underlying strength of the economy, it

is unlikely that the weakness in M-1 behavior in November will persist. Given projections of nominal GNP, money demand can be expected to be relatively strong over the months ahead as the restraining effect of the 1

to 2 percentage point rise in short rates since last spring

wears off.

While the growth in GNP will probably generate less demand

for money than historical relationships would suggest, it appears likely,

on the basis of recent experience, that demand will be stronger relative to economic activity than was the case in 1975 and 1976. (11)

Against that background, M-1 growth is likely to pick

up in the December-January period.

Given the Federal funds rate assump-

tions of alternative B--where the rate is centered at the prevailing level of 6-1/2 per cent--M-1 growth over this period is likely to be

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M-2

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1977 November December 1978 January

333.2 334.9 337.0

333.2 334.8 336.8

333.2 334.7 336.6

802.6 807.8 813.6

802.6 807.6 813.1

802.6 807.6 812.8

1977 QIII QIV

328.5 333.9

788.0 803.3

1978 QI QII QIII

338.9 343.1 345.8

338.6 342.4 345.8

338.3 342.2 345.8

819.1 834.0 846.4

818.3 832.3 845.9

817.8 831.8 845.9

7.8 8.6

Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 December 1978 January

6.1 7.5

5.8 7.2

5.4 6.8

Quarterly Average: 1977 QIV

6.6

6.0 5.0 3.1

5.6 4.5 4.0

5.3 4.6 4.2

QIII '77-QI '78 QI '78-QIII '78

6.3 4.1

6.1 4.3

6.0 4.4

Annual: QIII '77-QIII '78

5.3

1978 QI QII QIII

7.5 8.2

7.5 7.7

7.8

7.9 7.3 5.9

7.5 6.8 6.5

7.2 6.8 6.8

7.9 6.7

7.7 6.7

7.6 6.9

7.3

Semi-Annual:

FOMC Range

4-6

6k-9

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M-3 Alt.

Alt.

(cont'd)

Bank Credit Alt.

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1977 November December 1978 January

1365.3 1374.9 1385.3

1365.3 1374.6 1384.4

1365.3 1374.4 1383.6

870.5 877.8 884.9

870.5 877.8 884.6

870.5 877.8 884.3

1977 QIII

1329.8 1365.8

1329.8 1365.7

1329.8 1365.6

847.7 870.1

1395.4 1424.0 1449.0

1393.7 1419.7 1445.0

1392.4 1418.0 1443.4

891.3 909.6

890.8 908.4 925.7

890.2 907.2 924.0

QIV 1978 QI QII QIII Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 December 1978 January Quarterly Average: 1977 QIV

8.4 9.1

10.8

8.2 8.6 10.8

10.6

10.6 9.2 7.6 7.4

7.4

9.4 7.3

10.3 8.1

10.2 7.8

10.0 7.6

8.7

8.5

9.4

9.2

9.0

9.9 7.7

9.6

Annual: QIII '77-QIII '78

9.0

FOMC Range

10.1 8.9

9.5 7.9 7.6

Semi-annual: QIII '77-QI '78 QI '78 QIII '78

QIII

10.1 9.3

9.7 8.2 7.9

8.2 7.5

QII

10.8

10.1 9.7

7.9 7.4 7.2

8.7 8.2 7.0

1978 QI

8.0 8.0

927.6

7.1

8-10%

7-10

in a 3-1/2 to 9-1/2 per cent annual rate range.

If the staff's December

projection of 6 per cent annual rate of increase in M-1 proves correct, growth in the fourth quarter would be at a 6-1/2 per cent annual rate, significantly below the rates of growth for the second and third quarters.

For the year 1977 (measured from QIV '76 to QIV '77) M-1

would grow at around a 7-1/4 per cent rate. (12)

Growth in M-2

over the December-January period is likely

to be in a 6-10 per cent annual rate range under alternative B. Commercial bank savings deposits, after contracting in November, are likely to resume modest growth over the period, even though market yields will remain above rate ceilings on such deposits, as the most interest sensitive holders have probably shifted to other instruments. Small denomination time deposits with maturities in excess of 4 years, whose rates are still above those on marketable securities of comparable maturity, are also expected to grow moderately in the DecemberJanuary period.

As in October-November, however, most of the expansion

in the interest bearing

component of M-2 is likely to occur in large

denomination time deposits not subject to interest rate ceilings. (13)

At thrift institutions, inflows over the months ahead

are likely to remain well below the unusually rapid pace of JulyOctober, when these institutions were apparently successful in capturing a substantial volume of maturing wild card deposits from commercial banks. Saving deposits at S&L's and MSB's have already slowed considerably in reflection of the higher level of market yields, but longer-term deposits at these institutions, where offering rates remain above market yields,

can be expected to grow at a relatively rapid pace in December-January. While thrift institutions have only limited ability to supplement

-10deposit flows with ceiling-free large denomination deposits, they appear to be in a position to fulfill their record level of mortgage commitments by reducing liquid asset holdings and continuing to draw on FHLB advances. (14) 6

If the Federal funds rate remains near its present

per cent level over the inter-meeting period, as envisioned under

alternative B, short-term rates probably will remain fairly near their current levels.

Credit demands are not likely to exert

upward pressures on short-term rates in the weeks immediately ahead. The Treasury is not expected to expand the supply of bills until late January or early February.

In private short-term markets, banks are

likely to issue a sizable amount of new large, negotiable CD's in coming weeks, though the amount issued will probably drop below the exceptional volume of the fourth quarter, as other deposit inflows pick-up somewhat and loan demands moderate. (15)

Over the longer-run, however, short-term rates can be

expected to rise further.

Given the 11 per cent increase in nominal GNP

projected for the first three quarters of 1978, further increases in interest rates seem required to restrain M-1 growth during that period to about the 4¾ per cent annual rate necessary to achieve the midpoint of the Committee's longer-run range of 4-6½ per cent for the QIII '77-QIII '78 period.

The Federal funds rate may have to begin

rising around mid-January and reach a level of about 7¾ per cent by spring, as shown in Appendix I. This would probably be accompanied by

-11a rise of 1½ percentage points or so in other short rates and of about

a ½ percentage point in bond yields.

Mortgage rates may rise somewhat

less, given prospective Federal support programs.

(16)

Alternative C contemplates an increase in the Federal

funds rate to the mid-point of a 6¾-7¼ per cent range between now and mid-January.

With additional monetary restraint in place sooner,

the staff would expect growth in the monetary aggregates to be somewhat slower over the next few months than under alternative B. Consequently, interest rates would have to rise somewhat less next year in order to achieve the mid-points of the Committee's longer-run ranges for the QIII '77-QIII '78 period. (17)

In light of the recent moderation in the growth of the

monetary aggregates, an increase in the Federal funds rate to the 7 per cent mid-point of the alternative C range over the next few weeks would probably surprise market participants and involve a substantial upward adjustment in short rates--with the 3-month bill rate, for example, rising to about 6½ per cent.

Longer-term rates would also

probably be subject to upward pressures, but the large volume of investible funds from insurance companies and pension funds would very likely restrain

the net increase in such rates.

Member bank borrowing from

the discount window would rise substantially, and pressure for another increase in the discount rate would develop. (18)

An easing in the Federal funds rate to 6 per cent, as

envisioned under alternative A, could stimulate a substantial downward adjustment in short-term market rates.

However, the lower level of

-12rates could not be maintained for long if growth in the aggregates is to be held within the Committee's longer-run ranges.

Thus,

interest rates would soon need to begin rising, and would reach levels next year higher than those necessary under alternatives B and C. Under alternative A, M-1 is likely to expand at a 6¼ per cent average rate of growth over the fourth quarter of 1977 and the first quarter of 1978, requiring interest rate increases sufficient to hold M-1 growth in the second and third quarters of 1978 to about a 4 per cent annual rate.

The projected Federal funds rate pattern to achieve such a

slowdown calls for an increase to around 8¼ per cent in the third quarter of 1978.

Such rate levels would likely warrant consideration

of adjustments to Regulation Q ceilings by next summer.

-13Directive language (19)

Given below are alternatives for the operational

paragraphs of the directive.

The first formulation places main

emphasis on near-term rates of growth in monetary aggregates.

The

second formulation, like the directive adopted at the last meeting, places main emphasis on money market conditions; it shows--in strikethrough form--the specifications adopted at the last meeting.

suggested below, the particular language needed in the opening lines of the money market formulation would depend on the specific conditions sought; the three alternatives shown--calling, respectively, for somewhat easier, prevailing, and somewhat firmer money market conditions-are intended to be associated with the specifications discussed in the preceding section under alternatives A, B, and C. "Monetary Aggregates" Formulation The Committee seeks to encourage near-term rates of growth in M-1 and M-2 on a path believed to be reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph.

Specifically, at present, it expects the

annual growth rates over the December-January period to be within the ranges of ____ ____

to ____ per cent for M-1 and

to ____ per cent for M-2.

In the judgment of the Committee

such growth rates are likely to be associated with a weeklyaverage Federal funds rate of about ____ per cent.

If, giving

approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that

-14growth rates over the 2-month period will deviate significantly from the mid-points of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of ____ to ____ per cent. IN THE CONDUCT OF DAY-TO-DAY OPERATIONS, ACCOUNT SHALL BE TAKEN OF EMERGING FINANCIAL MARKET CONDITIONS. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. "Money Market" Formulation At this time, the Committee seeks to maintain about the prevailing money market conditions (OR TO ACHIEVE SOMEWHAT EASIER OR SOMEWHAT FIRMER MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS) during the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at approximately the rates currently expected, which are believed to be on a path reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph.

Specifically, the Committee seeks

to maintain the weekly-average Federal funds rate at about [DEL: level] ____, current the

so long as M-1 and M-2 appear to

be growing over the[DEL: November-December]DECEMBER-JANUARY period

-15at annual rates within ranges of[DEL: 1to 7]____ cent and [DEL: 5 to 9]____

TO ____

TO____

per

per cent, respectively.

If,

giving approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period are approaching or moving beyond the limits of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the weekly-average Federal funds rate shall be 6¼-to-6¾] modified in an orderly fashion within a range of[DEL: ____

TO ____

per cent.

IN THE CONDUCT OF DAY-TO-DAY

OPERATIONS, ACCOUNT SHALL BE TAKEN OF EMERGING FINANCIAL MARKET CONDITIONS. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee.

Appendix I

Projected Federal Funds Rates Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt.

1977

QIV

1978

7-1/8

QII

7-5/8

QIII

7-5/8

Appendix II

Implied Velocity Growth Rates

(GNP/M 12

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1977

5.2

1978

4.7

5.1

5.4

5.6

6.0

5.9

III

6.8

5.9

5.7

4.0

(GNP/M2 )

1977

1978

2.9

3.3

3.2

3.7

III

4.0

3.4

Appendix III

Expansion in Reserves Over the Period From QIII 1977 to QI 1978 Consistent with Proposed Alternatives (Seasonally adjusted annual rates) Alt. A 5.9

Alt. B 0.8

Total Reserves

6.3

6.0

5.7

Monetary Base

8.7

8.6

8.5

Nonborrowed Reserves

Alt. C -0.1

On average, nonborrowed reserves expanded at about a 3 per cent annual rate, total reserves at about a 5-1/2 per cent rate, and the monetary base at an 8-1/2 per cent rate in the fourth quarter.

The fourth

quarter growth rates for total reserves and the monetary base are at or somewhat below the growth rates for the 1977 QIII to 1978 QI period thought to be consistent with the alternatives presented to Committee, as shown in the table above.

Thus, a modest acceleration in the growth of these

reserve aggregates will be needed over the months ahead.

On the other hand,

recent growth in nonborrowed reserves has been below the longer-run growth thought consistent with Alternative A, but above the growth rates shown for Alternatives B and C.

The estimates for nonborrowed reserves shown in

the table assume no change in the discount rate from its current level of 6 per cent.

Increases in the discount rate would, of course, shift the

composition of total reserves more toward nonborrowed than borrowed reserves.

Appendix Table IV-1 MONEY STOCK--M-1 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)Base Period

Ending Period 1975

1976

1977

1978

74IV

751

7511

75111

75IV

761

7611

7611I

76IV

771

7711

77111

0.7

3.9

7.1

III

5.0

7.2

7.3

4.4

5.6

4.9

4.1

4.9

4.2

2.7

2.9

4.8

5.6

5.3

4.6

5.6

8.5

III

4.7

5.4

5.1

4.5

5.2

6.4

4.4

5.0

5.6

5.4

5.0

5.6

6.5

5.6

4.9

5.4

5.2

4.9

5.3

6.0

5.1

5.5

4.3

5.3

5.8

5.6

5.4

5.9

6.5

6.0

6.5

8.7

III

5.7

6.2

6.1

5.9

6.4

7.0

6.7

7.3

7.5

9.2

9.7

IV p

5.8

6.2

6.1

6.0

6.5

7.0

6.7

7.2

7.3

8.2

6.7

III2/

5.6

5.9

6.0

6.3

6.2

6.6

6.1

5.3

Based on quarterly average data. Based on attainment of mid-point of current longer-run range. Projected

Appendix Table IV-2 MONEY STOCK--M-2 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)Base Period

Ending Period 1975

1976

1977

74IV

751

7511

75111

75IV

761

7611

76111

76IV

771

7711

77111

5.8

8.1

10.4

III

8.9

10.4

8.3

9.2

8.5

8.7

9.4

9.1

8.4

10.2

9.1

9.7

9.6

9.3

10.6

10.9

III

9.1

9.7

9.5

9.3

10.2

9.4

9.6

10.2

10.1

10.0

10.9

11.1

11.2

13.1

9.7

10.2

10.1

10.8

10.9

11.7

10.3

9.7

10.1

10.0

10.6

10.7

10.6

11.0

9.9

9.5

III

9.8

10.2

10.1

10.6

10.7

10.6

10.9

10.2

10.1

10.7

IV p

9.6

10.0

9.9

10.3

10.1

9.6

9.4

9.3

8.0

8.5

8.3

8.0

7.3

10.5

10.3

*9.1 1978 1/ 2/ p

III-

9.1

9.3

9.4

Based on quarterly average data. Based on growth rate projected under alternative B. Projected

9.3

Appendix Table IV-3 MONEY STOCK--M-3 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)-

Ending Ending

Base Period

Period

74IV

1975

1976

1977

1978

751

7511

751V

761

7611

7611I

76IV

771

7711

77111

7.9

10.4

12.9

III

11.5

13.3

13.7

11.1

12.2

11.8

9.9

11.3

12.1

11.8

10.9

11.9

11.4

12.2

12.0

11.4

12.1

12.3

III

11.5

12.1

11.9

11.5

12.0

12.1

11.9

12.0

12.5

12.2

12.8

13.1

13.5

15.2

11.9

12.5

12.4

12.2

12.6

12.8

12.9

13.5

11.8

12.2

12.1

11.9

12.2

12.3

12.5

11.1

10.4

III

11.9

12.3

12.2

12.0

12.3

12.4

12.6

11.7

11.6

13.0

IV p

11.8

12.2

12.1

12.0

12.2

12.3

12.2

12.3

11.6

12.1

III /'

11.0

11.2

11.1

10.9

11.0

10.9

10.7

10.6

10.0

9.7

9.5

I/ Based on quarterly average data. 2/ Based on growth rate projected under alternative B. Projected p

11.3

8.7

CHART I

12/16/77

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW r- MONEY SUPPLY M1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 340

320

300

_LLLLI

OADER MONEY SUPPLY M2

S-i

280

800

9% growth for

5% growth.

I 1976

1977

0 1977

CHART 2

12/16/77

MONETARY AGGREGATES BANK CREDIT

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

END OF MONTH -

900

860

820

780

740

BILLIONS

1976

1977

CHART 3

12/16/77

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS I

PER CENT -- 7

INTEREST RATES Short-term

PER CENT

WE KLY AVERAGES

FEDERAL FUNDS/RATE /

- 8

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I - 12

1976

1977

1978

1976

1977

1978

1976

1977

1978

Table 1

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS -FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES

DEC.

16,

1977

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply road Narrow

Period

(Ml)

___

(M2)

Total U.S. Govt.

Time & Savings Deposits Other Than C's

Deposits 1/

Total

avings

the r

462.6 465.9 469.4 (472.8)

217.8 218.4 218.3 1218.8)

244.8

C C D

Nondeposit Sources of Funds

MONTHLY LEVELS-SBIL 330.4 333.7 333.2 (334.8)

1977--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

792.9 799.6 802.6 (807.6)

525.8 532.2

10.7 10.3 6.7 ( 10.5)

540.3 (547.3)

-39.3 23.8 -7.5)

9.5 8.5 16.4)

63.2

251.1 (254.0)

66.4 70.9 1 74.4)

13.2 11.1 15.0)

10.9 -4.4 70.91

247.5

57.7 57.4 60.0

ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1977--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH OTR.

8.2 10.6 '5.3)

(

8.8 10.4 7.4)

(

9.2 10.3 7.8)

-18.2 15.2 ( -62.41

7.9 10.1 4.5 7.5)

58.8 -44.9 -419.4 ( 60.6)

7.6 14.6 18.3 15.5)

8.b 8.6 9.0 8.7)

8.9 3.3 -0.5 2.7)

8.4 13.2 17.5 13.9)

0.0 60.8 81.3 59.2)

(

17.0)

8.9)

1.1)

15.8)

72.31

(

9.4 10.4 S 8.8)

5.1 9.6 1.8)

9.8 10.9 6.6)

8.5 6.6 S 4.8)

QUARTERLY-AV 1977--2ND OTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

8.4 9.3 6.6)

(

8.3 10.0 (13.2)

(

10.8 15.0 (

11.8)

-1.9

(

3.2 47.5)

MONTHLY 1977--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

7.3 12.0 -1.8 ( 5.8

NOV.-DEC.

(

2.0)

6.0)

11.7)

MEEKLY LEVELS-SBIL 1977-NOV.

DEC.

NOTE: 1/ Z/

2 9 16 23 30

331.3 333.8 334.1 331.5 333.1

798.0

535.0 537.4 539.5 542.2 543.2

466.7 468.0 468.9 470.3 470.7

218.3 218.2 218.3 218.2 217.9

248.5 249.0 250.6 254.2 252.7

68.2 69.4

803.0 801.8 803.8

9.1 6.6 6.3 6.5 6.1

334.9

806.3

10.0

544.2

471.4

218.2

253.2

72.8

801.8

P - PRELIMINARY DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS, INCLUDES TREASURY DEPUSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. INCLUDES BORROWINGS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, MENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY, PLUb GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN (EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS), LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS.

70.5

71.8 72.5

60.7 56.1 58.1 63,4 63.3

SECURITIES SOLD UNDER FOREIGN BRANCHES

AGREE-

CONFIDENTIAL (FR.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 2

BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

[__ Period

MONTHLY

Total Reserves

BANK RESERVES

DEC.

16,

1977

REQUIRED RESERVES

Nonborrowed Reserves I I

Monetary Base III

Total Required

Private Demand II

Total Time Deposits II

125,144 126,109 126,956 (127,778)

35v418 35,686 35,757 (35.993)

21,279 21,364 21,437 (21,411)

12,388 12,456 12,646 (12 855)

3.9 13.2 2.5)

6.1 2.6 1 15.1)

Gov't. and Interbank

LEVELS-SMILLIONS

1977-SEPT. UCT. NOV. DEC.

35,627 35,897 36,012 (36,2051

35,001 34,591 35,151 (35,629)

(

6.5 8.8 6.5)

S 7.2)

b.2 10.2 8.4)

(

3.0 9.0 5.6)

1.9 3.4 2.9)

7.2 9.6 8.5)

(

-0.5 9.1 3.8 6.4)

(

1,751 1,846 1,674 1,728)

PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1977-2ND OTf. 3RD QTR. 4TH OTT.

4.6

(

7.3 8.1 6.5)

(

3.5 8.6 5.7)

QUARTERLY-AV 1977-2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH QTR.

(

3.0 10.2 S4.6)

4.0 6.3 (

8.6)

MONTHLY 1977-SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

S 5.1)

NOV.-DEC.

14.6

-14.1 1

19.4 16.3) S18.0)

8.2 9.3 8.1 7.8)

-0.8 9.1 2.4 7.9)

7.9)

5.2)

3.5 5.9 3.0 -1.5) 0.8)

-O.I 6.6 18.3 19.8) 19.2)

WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLZONS 1977-NGV.

OEC.

16 23 30

36,112 36,013 36,158 35,908 35,941

34,999 35,126 35,624 35,027 34,868

126,660 126,503 127,036 12o,840 127,470

35,847 35,858 35,741 35,919 35,464

21,432 21,586 21,472 21,352 21,340

12,535 12594 12,620 12,670 12,731

1.881 1,676 1.649 1,897 1,413

7 14

35,891 36,227

35,308 35,717

127,081 127,680

35,$56 35,931

21,263 21,476

12,801 12 630

1,792 1,625

NOTEs

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

m ASSOCIATED

a WITH CHANGES

i IN RESERVE

a REQUIRMENT RATIO.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC DECEMBER 16, 1977

TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ million, not seasonally adjusted)

Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Treasury Bills

Within

Net Chane

1 year

-490 7,232 1,280 -468

863 171 77

1976--Qtr. III Qtr. IV 1977--Qtr. I Qtr. II Qtr. III

942

July Aug. Sept.

-1,136 636 1,385

Oct. Nov.

-1,877 -736

Nov.

5 12

Dec.

124 -304

2 9 16 23

539 500 434 1,510 1,048

167 129 196 1,070 642

1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187

881 794

345 232

160 192

1,557 1,294

200

114

470

116

--681 --

-128

-1,021

-60

333 --

--- -568

-376

-360 - -..

--- ~--

Within 1 year

~-~

1 - 5

5 - 10

-- 37

-41

Over 10

Total

-..

-96

1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891

1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227

115

1,398 436

604

14.3

26.9

552 4,881

-1,353 1,883

-4,380 -736

-6,530 2,996

--- --- --

40 --- 87 --- 520

-----

--- --

645

--- ---------

-..

4,561

380

-- -----

.-.

-..-

-..

166

10.2

108

977

7.0

58.4

1.3

3.8

--- --

-459 -304 -397

--- -

-569 -376

-..

1.5

4,175 -2,331

-2,861

-4,771

1,744

--- -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3.607

-1,159

113

--- --- --

Net RP's 6/

233

----

--- --

Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/

2,738 3,666 4,273

S S -

41.1

~~--

592 400 1,665 824 469

7 14

LEVEL--Dec. 14 (in billions'

4/ 5/

789 579 797 3,284 3,025

-394

21p 28

1/ 2/ 3/

Total

Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/

1,680 959 1,021

-459

19 26

5 - 10

1,164 2,126 886

1977--June

1977--Oct.

1 -5 -

(FR)

-360 ..

7.3

.585 327

106.7

-5,482 -1,333c -3,846 5,898 -2,690 -4,479 -1,726 8,439 -1,167 1,317 -4,553

-4.9

Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Excludes redemptions, Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC DECEMBER 16, 1977

(millions of dollars)

U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions

Underwriting Syndicate Positions Corporate Municipal

Bills

Coupon Issues

Bonds

8,896

3,046

334

343

3,668

175

7,234 1,729

3,017 -1,445

295 0

350 116

1976--Nov. Dec.

6,876 8,005

2,418 2,443

79 145

1977--Jan. Feb.

6,406 4,450

2,320 1,650

Mar.

4,906

Apr.

4,567

May June July Aug. Sept.

1976--High

Low 1977--High Low

Oct. Nov.

Excess** Reserves

Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit** ] Total

Seasonal

8 New York

38 Others

655

242

-8,161

-12,744

-180

-2,367

- 6,908

513 -111

1,861 20

131 8

-8,742 -4,234

-13,975 - 8,206

217 167

257 274

72 53

22 13

-6,289 -7,168

-11,618 -11,449

82 72

202 226

265 198

68 72

10 12

-6,421 -5,604

-11,504 -11,503

972

103

162

214

103

-5,661

-10,912

696

101

173

192

-6,586

-11,409

3,072 4,752

123 206

20 142

228 217

213 154

206 262

30 54

-5,693 -5,341

-10,175 -10,332

3,899 2,533 4,812

-309 -933 -313

143 71 128

209 199 230

275 200 209

323 1,084 626

60 102 112

-6,391 -5,581 -7,333

-11,012 -11,452 -11,120

4,142 *3,617

-360 *610

83 36

186 210

210 2 55p

1,305 861p

112 83p

-6,480 -6,971

-11,511 -11,825

1977--Oct.

5 12 19 26

3,898 3,868 3,930 4,712

-777 -216 -496 -90

54 63 108 108

263 200 166 116

401 169 84 202

883 1,051 1,861 1,444

117 112 112 116

-6,699 -8,525 -6,416 -5,391

- 8,730 -12,135 -13,061 -11,294

Nov.

2 9 16 23 30

4,203r 3,662r 4,428 *3,326 *2,818

-203 547r 426 *575 *1,203

0 40 21 48 295

124 140 306 271 221

265 155 417 -11 457p

1,113 887 534 879

-5,011 -7,494 -7,340 -7,447

-11,554 -13,734 -12,638 -10,748

1,073p

104 87 81 84 74p

-6,165

-10,259

Dec.

7 14 21

*3,397 *5,059

*1,026 *447

160 215p

281 380p

583p 509p

70p 6 5 p

-7,728p 9 9 - ,08 p

-11,617p -11,781p

p 304p

28 Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financing by NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * **

Strictly confidential. Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

Revised.

TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent)

Treasury Federal Funds

90-Day

Short-Term Bills Commercial CD's New Paper Issue-NYC 1-Year 90-119 Day 60-Day 90-Day

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC DECEMBER 16, 1977

Long-Term U.S. Govt.-Constant Maturity Yields 3-yr 7-yr 20-yr

Corp.-Aaa Utilit Municipal Home Mortgages New Recently Bond Primary Secondary Market Issue Offered Buyer Cony. FNMA Auc.GNMA Sec. (12) (13) (14) (15) (10) (11)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

1976--High Low

5.58 4.63

5.53 4.27

6.32 4.62

5.90 4.63

5.63 4.40

5.75 4.50

7.52 5.65

7.89 6.33

8.17 7.23

8.95 7.93

8.94 7.84

7.13 5.83

9.10 8.70

9.20 8.39

8.45 7.57

1977--High

6.58 4.47

6.27 4.41

6.62 4.67

6.60 4.63

6.45 4.48

6.63 4.50

7.32 5.83

7.57 6.59

7.84 7.26

8.35 7.90

8.34 7.95

5.93 5.45

8.95 8.65

8.89 8.46

8.24 7.56

1976--Nov. Dec.

4.95 4.65

4.75 4.35

5.00 4.64

4.98 4.66

4.84 4.68

4.94 4.50

6.09 5.68

6.86 6.37

7.64 7.30

8,17 7.94

8.18 7.93

6,29 5.94

8.81 8.79

8.66 8.45

7.93 7.59

1977--Jan. Feb. Mar.

4.61 4.68 4.69

4.62 4.67 4.60

5.00 5.16 5.19

4.72 4.76 4.75

4.61 4.58 4.58

4.68 4.70 4.72

6.22 6.44 6.47

6.92 7.16 7.20

7.48 7.64 7.73

8.08 8.22 8.25

8.09 8.19 8.29

5.87 5.89 5.89

8.72 8.67 8.69

8.48 8.55 8.68

7.83 7.98 8.06

Apr.

4.73

4.54

5.10

4.75

4.57

4.67

6.32

7.11

7.67

8.26

8.22

5.73

8.75

8.67

7.96

May June

5.35 5.39

4.96 5.02

5.43 5.41

5.26 5.42

5.04 5.24

5.16 5.35

6.55 6.39

7.26 7.05

7.74 7.64

8.33 8.08

8.31 8.12

5.75 5.62

8.83 8.86

8.74 8.75

8.04 7.95

July Aug.

5.42 5.90

5.19 5.49

5.57 5.97

5.38 5.75

5.16 5.65

5.28 5.78

6.51 6.79

7.12 7.24

7.60 7.64

8.14 8.04

8.12 8.05

5.63 5.62

8.95 8.94

8.72 8.76

7.96 8.03

Sept.

6.14

5.81

6.13

6.09

5.95

6.01

6.84

7.21

7.57

8.07

5.51

8.90

8.74

8.02

Oct. Nov.

6.47 6.51

6.16 6.10r

6.52 6.52

6.51 6.54

6.33 6.44

6.53 6.56

7.19 7.22

7.44 7.46

7.71 7.76

8.23 8.28

8.22 8.25

5.64 5.49

8.92 8.92

8.82 8.86

8.16 8.19

5 12

6.41 6.41

5.98 6.22

6.29 6.52

6.31 6.43

6.20 6.38

6.30 6.63

6.97 7.18

7.32 7.47

7.63 7.72

8.15 8.20

8.14 8.23

5.60 5.70

8.93 8.93

8.77 --

8.09 8.16

6.50

6.27

6.62

6.59

6.38

6.63

7.28

7.47

7.73

8.22

8.21

5.67

8.93

8.84

8.18

6.49

6.11

6.53

6.57

6.37

6.56

7.28

7.50

7.74

8.28

8.24

5.59

8.90

8.19

2 9 16 23

6.50 6.58 6.42 6.51

6.14 6.17 6.10 6.06

6.55 6.58 6.51 6.48

6.55 6.57 6.56 6.52

6.41 6.45 6.45 6.45

6.55 6.60 6.55 6.55

7.32 7.24 7.17 7.19

7.56 7.47 7.41 7.42

7.81 7.80 7.74 7.73

8.35 8.29 8.24 8.23

8.32 8.26 8.24 8.19

5.55 5.51 5.45 5.45

8.90 8.93 8.93 8.93

8.86 -8.86 --

8.18 8.21 8.17 8.18

6.55

6.04

6.49

6.53

6.45

6.55

7.22

7.45

7.75

8.26

8.23

5.47

8.95

8.85

8.18

6.51

6.05

6.50

6.54

6.45

6.55

7.27

7.54

7.81

8.35

8.34

5.54

8.95

8.23

14 21

6.49

6.06

6.51

6.60

6.50

6.70

7.28p

7.57p

8.37p

5.55

n.a.

8.89

8.24

6.50 54 6. p

6.08 6.01

6.53 6.48

6.55 6.63

7.27 7.26p

7.55 7.57p

Low

1977--Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

. 6p

28 Daily--Dec.

8 15

--- 7.82 7.85p

Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. NOTE: For columns 7 through 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are fore 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). are averaged. Columns 11 and 12 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 13 is an average

of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 14 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 15 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling.

DEC.

16, 1977

Appendix Table 1-A

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES Bank Reser

Period Total

Nonborrowed

Money Stoak Measures

oCrt

Monetary Base

Total Loans and Invest-

_ments

(PER CENT ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH)

ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976

7.0 -0.2 1.0

7.7 3.2 1.2

9.1 5.9 6.9

10.1 3.9 6.0

5.1 4.4 5.6

7.7 0.3 10.9

7.1 11.1 12.8

10.6 6.5 7.1

9.0 9.7 10.3

8.9 10.5 10.0

9.5 10.1 10.2

1ST HALF 1976 2ND HALF 1976

-1.5 3.6

-1.3 3.7

6.9 6.8

6.7 8.9

5.6 5.5

10.3 10.9

11.8 13.1

6.0 8.0

8.9 11.1

9.2 10.3

9.6 10.4

IST HALF 1977

2.9

2.3

7.0

11.6

6.4

9.7

10.8

9.0

10.3

10.2

10.4

SEMI-ANNUALLY:

QUARTERLYS 4TH QTR.

1976

7.6

7.7

8.0

11.2

7.2

13.4

14.5

12.4

13.8

11.9

11.6

IST OTR. 2NO QTR. 3RD QTR.

1977 1977 1977

-1.8 6.5 8.8

-2.4 4.6 4.6

5.1 8.2 10.2

10.6 12.6 8.6

3.6 8.2 10.6

8.5 8.8 10.4

10.0 9.9 13.4

7.3 9.1 9.3

9.2 10.0 12.6

10.1 9.7 11.9

10.5 9.9 11.7

QUARTERLY-AV: 4TH QTR.

1976

4.4

4.8

7.1

10.8

6.5

12.5

14.4

9.8

12.7

11.1

11.0

1ST OTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR.

1977 1977 1977

2.7 3.0 9.0

2.6 1.9 3.4

6.8 7.2 9.6

9.5 13.3 9.8

4.2 8.4 9.3

9.9 9.2 10.3

11.3 10.0 12.4

9.3 8.5 9.7

10.9 9.4 11.9

10.7 9.5 11.4

10.8 9.6 11.3

11.8 4.9

12.6 5.6

9.1 7.7

11.1 8.6

0.0 7.7

10.6 13.1

12.6 13.4

9.7 13.4

11.9 13.7

10.8 10.5

10.5 10.3

10.9 -13.1 -3.1 13.0 1.5 4.8 16.9 9.8 -0.5. 9.1 3.8

10.4 -13.3 -4.3 14.1 -3.1 2.9 14.9 -15.4 14.6 -14.1 19.4

10.6 -0.2 5.0 11.8 6.2 6.4 14.2 8.1 8.2 9.3

4.7 15.9 10.9 15.7 12.0 9.6 9.5 12.3 3.8 13.5 11.8

5.4 0.8 5.4 19.4 0.7 4.5 18.3 5.9 7.3 12.0 -1.8

9.7 7.1 8.6 13.5. 4.7 8.1 16.6 6.4 7.9 10.1 4.5

11.4 8.9 9.4 12.4 7.3 9.8 16.1 11.5 12.3 12.5 7.3

8.7 7.0 6.2 11.7 5.4 10.0 13.6 6.5 7.5 13.6 10.5

10.8 8.7 8.0 11.3 7.6 10.8 14.3 11.2 11.7 14.6 10.8

10.9 11.4 7.8 10.6 7.7 10.5 13.3 10.8 11.4 14.0 10.5

11.0 11.7 .5 10.8 7.9 10.6 13.0 10.6 11.2 13.7 10.4

MONTHLY 1976--NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. P

8.1

1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. 2/ BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. P - PRELIMINARY

Table 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

DEC.

Appendix

16,

1977

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Bnk Credit

Sank Reserves I Period Period

Total Loans and Invest-

Money Stock Measure

onborrowed

Monetary Base

34,174 34,015 34,465

33,447 33,885 34,412

104,380 110,394 118,054

695.2 725.5 788.2

283.1 294.8 312.4

612.4 664.3 740.3

981.5 1092.6 1237.1

701.4 746.5 803.5

1070.5 1174.7 1300.3

1181.2 1308.3 1439.1

1221.6 1351.1 148.8

1976--NOV. DEC.

34,325 34,465

34,253 34,412

117,304 118,054

782.6 788.2

310.4 312.4

732.3 740.3

1223.4 1237.1

794.6 803.5

1285.6 1300.3

1426.6 1439.1

1476.1 1488.8

1977--JAN. FEB. MAR.

34,778 34,397 34,308

34,710 34,3k6 34,204

119,100 119,077 119,572

791.3 801.8 809.1

313.8 314.0 315.4

746.3 750.7 756.1

1248.9 1258.2 1268.1

809.3 814.0 818.2

1312.0 1321.5 1330.3

1452.2 1466.0 1475.5

1502.4 1517.1 1527.8

APR. MAY JUNE

34,680 34,723 34,862

34,606 34,517 34,599

120,749 121,376 122,027

819.7 827.9 834.5

320.5 320.7 321.9

764.6 767.6 772.8

1281.2 1289.0 1299.5

826.2 829.9 836.6

1342.8 1351.3 1363.5

1488.5 1498.1 1511.2

1541.6 1551.8 1565.5

JULY AUG. SEPT.

35,352 35,641 35,627

35,029 34,580 35,001

123,468 124,297 125,144

841.1 849.7 852.4

326.8 328.4 330.4

783.5 767.7 792.9

1316.9 1329.5 1343.1

846.3 850.9 856.2

1379.8 1392.7 1406.3

1528.0 1541.7 1556.3

1582.4 1596.4 1611.3

35,897 36,012

34,591 35,151

126,109 126,956

862.0 870.5

333.7 333.2

799.6 802.6

1357.1 1365.3

865.9 873.5

1423.4 1436.2

1574.4 1588.2

1629.7 1643.8

12 19 26

35,171 36,408 35,693

34,120 34,547 34,249

124,989 126,688 126,202

334.5 333.3 334.5

800.1 799.0 800.8

865.5 865.0 867.9

NOV.

2 9 16 23 30P

36,112 36,013 36,158 35,908 35,941

34,999 35,126 35,624 35,027 34,868

126,860 126,503 127,038 126,840 127,470

331.3 333.8 334.1 331.5 333.1

798.0 801.8 803.0 801.8 803.8

866.3 871.2 873.6 873.6 876.3

DEC.

35,691

35,306

127,081

334.9

606.3

879.1

Total

ments

S 5

ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976

MONTHLY:

OCT. NOV.

MEEKLY:

1977-OCT.

MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENIS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION OEPOSITS. M3, M5, M6, M7, 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FUR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY

NOTE:

WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR

DEC.

16,

1977

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES De d Period

Currency

Demand Deposits

Time and Savings Deposits Other Than CD's

Total

Savings

ANNUALLY:

(Pr

1974 1975 1976

III

CD's Other

Mutual Savings Credit Bank & Union S&L -Securities Shares Shares 1

Savings / Bonds

Other Short Term Private U.S.Gov't Short-term Securities Assets Assets 1/

cent annual rates of growth)

10.3 b.8 9.6

3.6 2.9 4.3

14.7 8.0 8.1

10.1 11.7 15.2

6.5 17.5 25.0

12.7 7.8 7.7

36.5 -6.1 -23.5

5.6 15.5 15.6

12.3 19.4 17.8

4.7 6.2 6.9

13.5 33.4 7.5

29.6 -1.0 19.2

10.7 8.0

4.0 4.6

6.3 9.7

14.1 15.2

27.5 19.8

3.9 11.3

-28.9 -21.1

13.8 16.2

16.6 17.6

6.3 7.2

16.6 -1.4

21.6 15.2

6.5

5.7

10.5

12.1

15.0

9.5

0.0

12.2

16.1

6.4

12.5

16.5

2/ SEMI-ANNUALLY1ST hALF 1976 2ND hALF 1976 1ST HALF

1977

QUARTERLY: 4TH QTR.

1976

6.6

7.4

15.7

18.1

26.2

10.9

1.3

15.9

18.2

6.2

1ST QTR. 2ND 0iR. 3RD0 TR.

1977 1977 1977

8.4 6. 11.4

2.2 6.2 10.1

9.5 9.5 8.5

11.9 9.4 10.4

16.3 5.1 9.6

8.1 13.2 11.1

-7.0 10.9 -4.4

12.0 11.2 17.3

16.4 13.8 23.8

o.1 6.6 7.0

17.1

25.4

10.2

-18.9

17.2

18.5

7.4

-16.1 31.1 8.3 4.9

4.1 20.9 15.3 5.2

QUARIERLY-AV: 4TH OTR.

1976

8.1

6.0

IST QTR. 2NO QTR. 3RD lTR.

1977 1977 1977

7.5 9.3 10.0

3.1 8.3 9.1

12.5 8.3 10.0

14.0 9.8 10.9

21.1 B.5 6.b

b.0 10.8 i5.0

1.9 -1.9 3.2

13.3 10.9 15.2

16.7 15.0 19.3

6.7 6.1 6.5

11.1 13.6 5.5

6.0 4.5

-2.1 8.9

16.1 17.1

18.8 16.8

5.4 26.1

13.5 8.0

-1.9 21.2

15.3 13.8

15.8 18.8

6.6 6.7

-3.4 -44.9

6.9 10.4 5.9 13.1 7.2 5.7 15.7 5.6 12.6 9.1 9.6

4.1 -3.1 5.7 21.6 -1.5 4.b lb.7 6.0 5.4 1..6 -5.4

11.0 10.7 6.7 b.9 b.3 11.2 11.0 0.9 7.6 14.6 16.3

12.9 11.7 10.7 9.5 7.6 10.7 15.4 6.8 b.6 b.6 9.0

23.2 14.6 10.4 10.9 4.5 0.0 5.1 14.6 B.9 3.3 -0.5

4.2 9.5 10.5 8.3 10.3 20.5 24.7 0.0 8.4 13.2 17.5

-3.8 3.6 -20.9 -11.6 13.6 30.8 -20.7 7.6 0.0 60.6 81.3

14.2 11.4 10. 10. 11.1 11.8 15.1 16.3 17.8 14.9 10.8

15.4 15.2 16.0 11.8 11.7 17.4 20.0 19.7 30.4 27.0 15.8

6.7 6.6 5.0 6.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.4 8.0 7.9 7.9

17.9 68.9 5.u 3.3 11.6 9.9 0.0 6.5 6.1 8.1 8.0

I1.2

-11.9

7.4 12.9 19.5 7.'

MONTHLY: 1976--NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. FEd. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. P

1/ GROwTH RATES ARE bASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 2/ BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. P - PRFIMINARY.

LEVELS DERIVED BY

AVERAGING END OF CURRENT

MONIH AND END

0.0 4.8 12.1 21.5 28.2 18.4 15.6 11.2 2.2 6.6 o.6 6.5 6.5

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

DEC.

16, 1977

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Deposits and Savings Timee and "Savi Depot T__ Currency Demand Deposits

Period

Other Than CD's

Tota

CD'

Total

Savings

Other

ShortTerm U.S. G t Sec

Other Prvate Shortterm

NonDeposit Funds

1/2/

Mutual Credit Savings Union Savings Bank & S&L Shares Bonds 1/ Sharesi

Total Gov't Demnd /

67.8 73.7 80.5

215.3 221.0 231.9

416.3 451.7 491.1

329.3 369.6 427.9

135.8 160.5 201.8

193.5 209.1 226.0

89.0 82.1 63.3

341.5 395.2 457.8

27.6 33.0 39.0

63.3 67.3 71.9

47.4 66.3 66.9

40.4 42.8 49.7

37.6 33.7 51.4

6.0 8.3 11.2

1976--NOV. DEC.

80.2 80.5

230.2 231.9

484.2 491.1

422.0 427.9

197.5 201.8

224.5 226.0

62.2 63.3

452.6 457.8

38.4 39.0

71.5 71.9

69.5 66.9

49.5 49.7

48.2 51.4

13.0 11.2

1977--JAN. FEB. MAR.

81.l 81.8 82.2

232.7 232.1 233.2

495.6 500.0 502.8

432.5 436.7 440.6

205.7 208.2 210.0

226.8 228.6 230.6

63.1 63.3 62.2

463.2 467.6 471.5

39.5 40.0 40.6

72.3 72.7 73.0

67.9 71.8 72.1

50.2 51.1 52.3

49.9 50.3 51.4

10.0 11.7 11.2

APR. MAY JUNE

83.1 83.6 84.0

237.4 237.1 238.0

505.7 509.2 514.8

444.1 446.9 450.9

211.9 211.7 212.7

232.2 234.2 238.2

61.6 62.3 63.9

475.6 480.0 484.7

41.0 41.4 42.0

73.4 73.8 74.2

72.3 73.0 73.6

53.1 53.8 54.3

50.8 54.6 53.5

10.8 10.6 10.1

JULY AUG. SEPT.

85.1 85.5 86.4

241.7 242.9 244,0

519.5 522.5 525.8

456.7 459.3 462.6

213.6 216.2 217.8

243.1 243.1 244.8

62.8 63.2 63.2

490.8 498.3 505.7

42.7 43.4 44.5

74.6 75.0 75.5

73.6 74.0 74.5

54.4 54.7 55.0

53.3 55.6 57.7

11.8 10.2 10.7

OCT. NOV. P

87.1 87.8

e46.6 245.5

532.2 540.3

465.9 469.4

218.4 218.3

247.5 251.1

66.4 70.9

512.0 516.6

45.5 46.1

76.0 76.5

75.0 75.5

55.3 55.6

57.4 60.0

10.3 6.7

12 19 26

86.9 67.1 87.3

247.6 246.1 247.2

531.0 531.8 533.4

465.6 465.7 466.3

218.3 218.3 218.4

247.3 247.4 247.9

65.4 66.1 67.1

56.2 60.2 58.9

8.4 10.0 10.2

NOV.

2 9 16 23 30P

87.5 87.6 87.7 87.7 88.1

243.8 246.Z 246.4 243.8 245.1

535.0 537.4 539.5 542.2 543.2

466.7 468.0 468.9 470.3 470.7

218.3 218.2 218.3 218.2 217.9

248.5 249.8 250.6 252.2 252.7

68.2 69.4 70.5 71.8 72.5

60.7 56.1 58.1 63.4 63.3

9.1 6.6 6.3 6.5 6.1

DEC.

88.0

246.9

544.2

471.4

218.2

253.2

72.8

ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976 MONTHLY:

WEEKLY: 1977-OCT.

1/ 2/

ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAG LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. INCLUDES PRIVATE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS' HOLDINGS OF COMMERCIAL PAPER, BANKERS ACCEPTANCES, SECURITY RP'S AND MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUND SHARES. 3/ BORROWINGS BY BANKS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SECURITIES SOLD UNDER AGREEMENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES (EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS), LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. 4/ INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL KESERVE BANKS. P - PRELIMINARY

10.0

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1977, December 19). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19771220

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19771220,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1977},
  month = {Dec},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19771220},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}