bluebooks · March 20, 1978

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

March 17, 1978

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

March 17, 1978

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1)

M-1 declined at about a 4 per cent annual rate in

February, but growth appears to have resumed in March and, over the two months, is projected at about a

per cent annual rate, slightly

below the lower end of the FOMC's range.1 /

Reflecting weakness in

M-1, M-2 growth over the February-March period is projected at around a 5 per cent annual rate, in the lower half of its range. Large denomination time deposits included in M-2 have continued to expand sharply in recent weeks, while flows into small time and savings deposits have remained quite weak.

Deposit growth at thrift

institutions has been relatively slow as well. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over February-March Period (SAAR in per cent)

M-1 M-2 Memo:

Range

Latest Estimates

1 to 6

to 8

5.0

Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

Avg. for statement week ending 6.80 Mar. 1 8 6.76

6.77

These figures do not incorporate the revisions for benchmarking based on recently available call report data for nonmember banks and for regular annual adjustments of seasonal factors; these revisions will be published on March 23. Growth rates for 1977 were increased--for M-1, from 7.4 to 7.8 per cent; for M-2, from 9.6 to 9.8 per cent. All tables on subsequent pages of this report (with the exception of Tables 1 and 2 following the charts)

are based on the new series. in Appendix III.

The new and old series are compared

-2(2)

The Account Manager aimed for a Federal funds rate

of around 6¾ per cent throughout the intermeeting period, even though M-1 and M-2 growth weakened relative to their respective ranges.

The FOMC, in a telephone meeting on March 10, decided to

retain the 6¾ per cent funds rate target for the time being in view of the weakness of the dollar in international exchange markets and the probability that the economic effects of the prolonged coal strike and severe weather were temporarily depressing the aggregates. (3)

With Federal funds trading steadily at rates around 6¾

per cent, private short-term interest rates have remained essentially unchanged since the February FOMC meeting.

Treasury bill rates,

however, have edged down a bit further over this period, mainly in response to continued large foreign central bank acquisitions of these securities.

In addition, the volume of Treasury bill financing

has been somewhat smaller than previously anticipated, reflecting a short-fall in Federal outlays and lagging disbursements of tax refunds.

Bond yields also have edged lower as the volume of public

bond offerings by corporations and State and local governments has remained moderate. (4)

Yields in both primary and secondary sectors of the

mortgage market have stayed about unchanged since late February, following their advance earlier in the first quarter.

However, with

deposit inflows still sluggish, S&L's have continued their sizable borrowings from the Federal Home Loan Banks.

As a result, the thrifts

-3probably have continued to become less accommodative in extending new loan commitments and appear to be tightening lending terms. (5)

The table on the next page shows (in terms of percentage

annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods.

1976 & 1977 Average

Past Twelve Months Feb. '78 over Feb. '77

Past Six Months Feb. '78 over Aug. '77

Past Three Months Feb. '78 over Nov. '77

Past Month Feb. '78 over Jan. '77

Nonborrowed reserves

1.5

6.4

11.3

15.8

4.3

Total reserves

2.1

7.4

7.3

10.4

1.7

Monetary Base

7.6

9.3

9.5

10.2

5.3

6.9

7.2

6.0

5.3

-1.1

10.3

8.6

7.3

6.4

4.4

12.2

10.3

9.0

7.2

5.2

M-4 (M-2 plus CD's)

8.8

9.9

10.6

9.8

8.2

M-5 (M-3 plus CD's)

11.1

10.9

9.2

7.5

Month-end basis

9.5

10.5

8.6

7.2

10.1

Average of Wednesdays

9.3

10.9

10.1

9.4

12.0

-0.3

1.3

2.7

2.8

3.1

0.2

0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.5

Concepts of Money (Revised Series) M-1 (Currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M-2 (M-1 plus time deposits

at commercial banks other than large CD's) M-3 (M-2 plus deposits at thrift institutions)

Bank Credit Loans and investments of all commercial banks 2/

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions --which are derived from either end-of-month or Wednesday statement date figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (6)

The table below presents for Committee consideration

three alternative sets of specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate for the forthcoming intermeeting period. (More detailed and longer-term data for the aggregates are shown in the tables on pp. 6 and 7.) Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

M-1

5 to 10

4½ to 9½

4 to 9

M-2

6½ to 10½

6 to 10

5½ to 9½

Federal funds rate (Intermeeting period)

6 to 6½

Ranges for March-April

(7)

6½ to 7

7 to 7½

Each of the alternatives is consistent with the growth

ranges for QIV '77 to QIV '78--as indexed by M-1 growth in a 4 to 6½ per cent range--adopted by the Committee at its February meeting and each requires that interest rates would rise over the balance of the year in order to constrain growth in the aggregates to the midpoint of the longer-run ranges.

Under alternative B, the Federal

funds rate would be expected to remain unchanged over the intermeeting period

and then begin rising thereafter, reaching about 8

per cent by fall.

The near-term decline in the funds rate contemplated

The ranges are based on the revised series for the monetary aggregates, described in Appendix III. The benchmark revision raised the growth of M-1 and M-2 in 1977 by .4 and .2 of a percentage point. The impact of the revision was reported orally to the FOMC at its last meeting, when the current longer-run ranges were established.

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates

M-2

M-1 Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1978

February March April

339.1 340.5 343.4

339.1 340.4 343.1

339.1 340.3 342.8

816.6 821.4 828.3

816.6 821.1 827.6

816.6 820.8 826.9

1977

QIV

335.3

803.9

1978

QI QII

339.7 345.0

339.6 344.5

339.6 344.1

817.2 833.7

817.1 832.9

817.0 832.5

QIII QIV

349.0 353.0

348.2 353.0

348.0 353.0

851.6 868.8

849.9 866.0

848.0 863.3

5.0 10.2

4.6 9.5

4.2 8.8

7.1 10.1

6.6 9.5

6.2 8.9

Quarterly Average: 1978 QI QII QIII QIV

5.2 6.2 4.6 4.6

5.1 5.8 4.3 5.5

5.1 5.3 4.5 5.7

6.6 8.1 8.6 8.1

6.6 7.7 8.2 7.6

6.5 7.6 7.4 7.2

Semi-Annual: QIV '77-QII '78 QII '78-QIV '78

5.8 4.6

5.5 4.9

5.2 5.2

7.4 8.4

7.2 7.9

7.1 7.4

Annual: QIV '77-QIV '78

5.3

8.1

7.7

7.4

Growth Rates

Monthly: 1978 March April

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) M-3

Bank Credit

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1978

Februar3 March April

1390.0 1398.3 1409.3

1390.0 1397.9 1408.1

1390.0 1397.4 1406.8

889.0 895.5 902.0

889.0 895., 901.8

889.0 895.5 901.6

1977

QIV

1365.4

865.0

865,0

865.0

1978

QI QII QIII QIV

1390.8 i419.0 1450.4 1481.6

1390.6 1417.2 1446.3 1475.1

1390.5 1416.0 1442.5 1468.9

888.1 909.8 929.0 946.3

888.1 909.6 928.7 945.8

888.1 909.4 928.4 945.3

Growth Rates Monthly: 1978 March April

7.2 9.4

6.8 8.8

6.4 8.1

8.8 8.7

8.8 8.4

8.8 8.2

Quarterly Average: 1978 QI QII QIII QIV

7.4 8.1 8.9 8.6

7.4 7.7 8.2 8.0

7.4 7.3 7.5 7.3

10.7 9.8 8.4 7.4

10.7 9.7 8.4 7.4

10.7 9.6 8.4 7.3

Semi-Annual: QIV '77-QII '78 QII '78-QIV '78

7.9 8.8

7.6 8.2

7.4 7.5

10.4 8.0

10.3 8.0

10.3 7.9

Annual: QIV '77-QIV '78

8.5

8.0

7.6

9.4

9.3

under alternative A would likely require a greater rise in this rate over the summer and fall.

Under alternative C, restraint would

begin earlier; thus the required upward adjustments in the funds rate over 1978 would be somewhat less.1/ The levels of interest rates consistent with each alternative imply continued relatively slow growth of interest-bearing deposits subject to rate ceilings at banks and thrift institutions, even though the projections of deposit aggregates assume a 50 basis point increase in time deposit ceiling rates in the months ahead. (8)

It is likely that the recent weakness in M-1 growth

will be reversed over the near-term. weather conditions

The abatement of severe

expected to contribute to an acceleration

of economic activity and an associated pick-up in money demand. Moreover, tax refunds are expected to accelerate in coming weeks, thus temporarily buoying money balances in March-April.

In addition,

the restraining impact on money demand of the relatively sharp increase in interest rates from the spring to the fall of last year by now probably has been exhausted, and short-term rate increases since fall have been relatively small, about 1/4 of a percentage point. (9)

Against this background, M-1 growth is expected to

accelerate in the weeks ahead.

Given the Federal funds rate assump-

tion of alternative B--with the rate centered at the 6¾ per cent

See Appendix I for projected Federal funds rate under each alternative. Appendix II displays the implied velocities of M-1 and M-2 associated with each alternative.

level prevailing since early January--M-1 growth over March-April is likely to be in a 4 (10)

to 9

per cent annual rate range.

Growth in M-2 over this period is expected to be in a

6 to 10 per cent annual rate range under alternative B.

As has

been the case since last fall, savings deposits at commercial banks are projected to remain essentially unchanged.

Temporary inflows

from larger than seasonal tax refunds may do little more than offset deposit weakness caused by the large differential between market rates and the ceiling rate on passbook savings accounts.

With

market yields also above the effective ceiling rates on all maturities of small denomination time deposits at commercial banks, such deposits are likely to grow only moderately in the March-April period.

However,

loan demands are expected to remain relatively strong; thus banks are likely to continue aggressively to offer large denomination time deposits in order to supplement their deposit base. of these deposits is included in M-2.

A major portion

Consequently the interest-

bearing component of this aggregate is projected to continue to expand at an 8 to 9 per cent seasonally adjusted annual rate. (11)

The modest pace of inflows to thrift institutions

can be expected to persist in March-April under alternative B. Growth of deposits at mutual savings banks and savings and loan associations, combined, may be around a 6 to 7 per cent annual rate. Over subsequent months, the assumed increase in deposit rate ceilings would keep deposit inflows to thrifts from eroding further as market

-10interest rates rise.

Reductions in thrift portfolio

liquidity and increased borrowings from the Federal Home Loan Banks and from other sources are thus likely to continue in order to finance takedowns of existing commitments.

Moreover, further

reductions in new commitment activity and in spot purchases of mortgages from mortgage bankers and others can be expected. (12)

If the Federal funds rate remains at the 6¾ per

cent level contemplated under alternative B, short- and intermediateterm interest rates over the intermeeting period are likely to remain near their current levels.

Some upward rate pressures

might develop as accelerating economic activity bolsters financing demands of businesses at banks and in the commercial paper market. In addition, Treasury borrowing in short- and intermediate-term markets between now and mid-April will be relatively heavy. Potential upward rate pressures in the short-term sector will tend to be offset, however, by market anticipation of the substantial pay-down of Treasury bills following the mid-April tax date. Moreover, rates on shorter-term Treasury securities could remain low relative to other market rates, should foreign central banks continue to acquire large amounts of such securities as a result of their intervention activities in foreign exchange markets. (13)

Under alternative B, mortgage rates might rise

somewhat further in the intermeeting period as thrifts adjust lending policies in response to sustained weak deposit inflows.

1The

Bond yields, however, are expected to be essentially unchanged.

forward calendar for corporate issues remains relatively modest and institutional demands large.

Furthermore, the forward calendar for

tax-exempt offerings continues below the exceptional 1977 level and interest in such issues by fire and casualty insurance companies, commercial banks, and individuals are projected to remain sizable. (14)

Alternative C contemplates an increase in the Federal

funds rate to the mid-point of a 7 to 7-1/2 per cent range between now and mid-April.

Growth in M-1 in the March-April period would probably

be in a 4 to 9 per cent and M-2 in a 5-1/2 to 9-1/2 per cent annual rate range.

Although the market is expecting some tightening of policy

later this spring, an increase in the Federal funds rate over the near-term apparently is not being anticipated by market participants, given the recent moderation of growth in the monetary aggregates. The 3-month bill might move into a 6-5/8--6-3/4 per cent area, and there would be commensurate adjustment in other short-term rates. Member bank borrowing from the discount window would rise substantially, producing expectations of an upward adjustment in the discount rate. Such borrowing has been relatively low recently, and no banks are under administrative pressure at the window. (15)

The sizable increase in short-term rates likely to

develop under alternative C would probably be accompanied by only modest upward pressure on bond yields in the intermeeting period.

-12As previously noted, new bond offerings are expected to be modest and institutional investment demand strong.

By contributing to

slower deposit inflows, however, alternative C would add to near-term upward pressure on mortgage rates and increase the need for an adjustment in deposit ceiling rates. (16)

An easing of the Federal funds rate to around 6¼

per cent, as contemplated under alternative A, would be very surprising to the market in light of the weakness of the dollar in foreign exchange markets and recent indications of acceleration in the rise of wholesale and retail prices.

In addition, if staff pro-

jections are correct, such an easing action would be taking place in conjunction with publication of accelerated growth in M-1.

Short-

term market rates would decline, with the 3-month Treasury bill rate possibly falling below 6 per cent.

The value of the dollar would

probably decline in international exchange markets.

Long-term interest

rates would probably decline little, since market participants would likely view such an action as temporary.

Indeed, as noted earlier,

interest rates would soon need to begin rising in order to restrain growth in the aggregates to the mid-point of their longer-run ranges, and by autumn would have to reach levels higher than under alternatives B and C.

-13Directive language (17)

Given below are alternatives for the operational

paragraphs of the directive.

The first formulation places main

emphasis on near-term rates of growth in monetary aggregates.

The

second formulation, like the directive adopted at the last meeting, places main emphasis on money market conditions; it shows--in strikethrough form--the specifications adopted at the last meeting.

suggested below, the particular language needed in the opening lines of the money market formulation would depend on the specific conditions sought; the three alternatives shown--calling, respectively, for somewhat easier, prevailing, and somewhat firmer money market conditions--are intended to be associated with the specifications discussed in the preceding section under alternatives A, B, and C. "Monetary Aggregates" Formulation The Committee seeks to encourage near-term rates of growth in M-1 and M-2 on a path believed to be reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph.

Specifically, at present, it expects the

annual growth rates over the March-April period to be within ranges of ____

____

to ____

per cent for M-2.

per cent for M-1 and ____

In the judgment of the Committee such

growth rates are likely to be associated with a weekly-average Federal funds rate of about ____

per cent.

If, giving approx-

imately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates

-14over the 2-month period will deviate significantly from the midpoints of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of ______

to ______

per cent.

the conduct of day-to-day operations, account shall be taken of emerging financial market conditions, including the conditions in foreign exchange markets. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify

the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. "Money Market" Formulation At this time, the Committee seeks to maintain about the

prevailing money market conditions (OR TO ACHIEVE SOMEWHAT EASIER OR SOMEWHAT FIRMER MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS) during the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates

appear to be growing at approximately the rates currently expected, which are believed to be on a path reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph.

Specifically, the Committee

seeks to maintain the weekly-average Federal funds rate at about the current level (OR TO REDUCE OR TO INCREASE THE WEEKLYAVERAGE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE SOMEWHAT FROM THE CURRENT LEVEL) ____,

-15Februaryso long as M-1 and M-2 appear to be growing over the [DEL: 1 to 6] March]MARCH-APRIL period at annual rates within ranges of [DEL: ______

TO ______

4-1/2 to 8-1/2] ______ TO ______ per cent and [DEL:

per cent, respectively.

If, giving approximately equal weight

to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period are approaching or moving beyond the limits of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the weekly-average Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of [DEL: 6-1/2-to-7] ____

TO ____

per cent.

In the conduct of day-

to-day operations, account shall be taken of emerging financial market conditions, including the conditions in foreign exchange markets. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee.

Appendix I

Projected Federal Funds Rate Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

6-3/4

7-1/8

7-3/8

QIII

7-7/8

7-3/4

QIV

8-1/2

7-3/4

1978--QI QI1

Appendix II Implied Velocity Growth Rates

VY (GNP/M 1978

5.3

5.5

4.9

5.3

5.8

III

5.5

5.9

5.6

6.6

5.7

5.4

3.9

4.1

3.1

3.4

III

1.6

2.1

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

Alt. B

(GNP/M

1978

Alt.

Alt. A

APPENDIX III Revisions in the Monetary Aggregates

Benchmark adjustments for domestic nonmember banks and revised seasonal factors have been incorporated into the money stock series and related data.

The benchmark adjustments are based on the most recent

call report data and go back to December 1976.

Seasonal factors have

been revised to incorporate an additional year of data and adjustments resulting from the Board staff's annual review of these factors.

Growth

rates for the revised M 1 and M 2 in 1977 are 7.8 and 9.8 per cent, respectively, as compared with rates of 7.4 and 9.6 per cent for the old series.

The impact of benchmark and seasonal factor changes on monthly,

quarterly, and annual M 1 and M 2 growth rates for 1977 are shown in Tables III-1 and 111-2. The benchmark adjustments are based on corrected data for the universe of domestic nonmember banks for December 1976 as well as such universe figures for March, June, and September 1977.

The

adjustments added $400 million to M1 at the end of 1976 and $1.6 billion to the level of M

at the end of 1977.

The level of M 2 was reduced

by $400 million at the end of 1976 and was raised by $1.4 billion at the end of 1977.

As shown in column 4 of Tables III-I and 111-2, over

the year 1977, on a quarterly average basis (QIV '76 to QIV '77),

the

benchmark adjustment added 0.4 percentage point to M1 and 0.2 to M 2 . For MI, the benchmark added about 1 percentage point to the growth rate in the first half of the year, but had essentially no effect on growth in the second half of the year.

III - 2

Seasonal revisions, shown in the last column of Tables III-1 and III-2, smoothed the quarterly and the monthly data by considerably reducing bulges in growth of M-l that had occurred in April, July, and October of last year. April and October had also developed in 1976.

Bulges in

Growth in these

months is still quite strong, however, possibly indicating development of a new seasonal pattern not yet fully captured in tne seasonal adjustment procedure.

Table III-1 EFFECT OF BENCHMARK AND REVISED SEASONAL FACTORS ON M 1 GROWTH (Seasonally adjusted annual rates of change in per cent)

Differences due to:Old Series

ReVised Series

Difference (1) - (2)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

7.4

7.8

0.4

4.2

6.9

2.7

1.1

1.6

QII

8.4

8.1

-0.3

1.2

-1.5

QIII

9.3

8.1

-1.2

0.3

-1.5

QIV

6.8

7.2

0.4

-0.4

0.8

3.6

5.1

1.5

5.4

9.2

3.8

0.7

3.1

February

0.8

5.3

4.5

1.5

3.0

March

5.4

7.6

1.2

1.8

-0.6

1.0

-6.5

2/ Annual1977

Benchmark

Seasonal Factors

Quarterly1977-QI

1978-QI

(proj)

1.5

Monthly 1977-January

April

19.4

13.9

-5.5

May

0.7

1.1

0.4

June

4.5

7.8

3.3

0.7

2.6

July

18.3

-6.8

-0.5

-6.3

11.5

August

5.9

6.2

0.3

-0.8

1.1

September

7.3

8.7

1.4

-0.8

2.2

10.9

-1.1

-0.4

-0.7

October

12.0

November

-1.4

0.4

December

7.6

7.5

-0.4

1978-January

7.2

9.6

2.4

-3.9

-1.1

2.8

5.0

4.6

February March

(proj)

In percentage points. From average of QIV to average of QIV. Quarterly average.

1.0

-0.4

1.0

-0.4

Table III-2 EFFECT OF BENCHMARK AND REVISED SEASONAL FACTORS ON M 2 GROWTH (Seasonally adjusted annual rates of change in per cent)

Differences due to:Old Series

2/ Annual1977

Revised Series

(1)

(2)

9.6

9.8

Difference Benchmark (1) - (2) (3) (4)

Seasonal Factors (5)

0.2

1.0

0.2

0.8

9.0

-0.2

0.3

-0.5

9.9

-0.4

0.2

-0.6

7.6

8.0

0.4

6.0

6.6

0.6

Quarterly-

9.9

1977-QI

9.2

QII

10.3

QIII QIV 1978-QI

(proj)

10.9

Monthly 1977-January

9.7

11.2

1.5

0.2

1.3

February

7.1

9.2

2.1

0.7

1.4

March

8.6

9.6

1.0

0.5

-2.7

0.3

-3.0

13.5

April

10.8

May

4.7

5.3

0.6

0.3

June

8.1

9.4

1.3

0.5

0.8

-3.3

0.3

-3.6

16.6

July

13.3

August

6.4

7.7

1.3

September

7.9

9.0

1.0

9.7

-0.4

0.7

October

10.1

November

4.7

5.4

December

5.7

8.2

8.9

3.5 6.3

1978-January February

March

(proj)

-0.1

0.8

0.1

-0.1

0.7

0.2

0.5

4.4

0.9

0.1

0.9

6.6

0.3

0.2

0.1

In percentage points. From average of QIV to average of QIV. Quarterly average.

Appendix Table IV-1 MONEY STOCK--M-l (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)Base Period

Ending Period 1975

1976

1977

74IV

7511

75111

75IV

761

7611

76111

761V

771

7711

2.3

4.3

6.4

III

5.0

6.3

4.4

5.1.

4.5

2.8

4.5

5.0

4.6

3.7

4.7

4.9

5.4

5.2

4.8

5.9

7.0

III

4.7

5.1

4.9

4.6

5.2

5.4

3.8

5.1

5.5

5.3

5.1

5.7

6.1

5.6

5.3

5.7

5.6

5.5

6.0

6.3

6.1

7.1

5.6

6.0

5.9

6.4

6.7

6.6

7.7

8.3

III

5.8

6.2

6.7

7.0

7.9

8.3

6.0

6.3

6.7

7.0

7.8

8.0

7.8

* * * *

1978

751

77III

77IV

d******~

IV Alt. A

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.3

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.1

5.7

5.3

Alt. B

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.3

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.1

5.7

5.3

Alt. C

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.3

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.1

5.7

5.3

Based on quarterly average data.

Appendix Table IV-2 MONEY STOCK--M-2 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly) Base Period

Ending Period 1975

1976

1977

1978

74IV

751

7511

75111

75IV

761

6.4

8.3

10.2

III

8.8

10.1

8.3

9.0

8.4

6.9

8.9

9.5

9.3

8.9

11.0

9.1

9.7

9.5

9.4

10.7

10.4

III

9.1

9.5

9.4

9.3

10.1

9.6

10.1

10.0

10.1

10.9

10.8

9.8

10.2

10.3

11.0

10.9

9.7

10.1

io.1

10.1

10.7

10.6

III

9.8

10.1

10.2

10.6

9.7

10.0

9.9

Alt. A

9.3

9.5

9.4

Alt. B

9.2

9.4

Alt. C

9.1

9.3

7611

76IV

771

7711

77111

9.9

8.9 11.1

13,2 12.3

11.3

10.7

11.3

10.3

9.4

10.6

11.0

10.3

9.8

10.3

10.2

10.5

9.8

9.3

9.2

8.2

9.4

9.6

9.4

9.3

9.4

8.9

8.6

8.5

8.1

9.3

9.4

9.3

9.2

8.7

8.4

8.2

7.8

9.2

9.1

9.3

9.2

9.1

8.6

8.2

8.0

7.6

1/ Based on quarterly average data.

77IV

Appendix Table IV-3 MONEY STOCK--M-3 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)Base Period

Ending Period

1975

1976

1977

74IV

751

7511

75111

751V

761

7611

76111

76IV

771

7711

77IV

8.3

10.6

13.0

III

11.5

13.1

13.2

11.1

12.0

11.5

9.8

11.4

12.2

11.9

11.2

12.7

11.5

12.2

12.0

11.6

12.5

12.2

III

11,5

12.0

11.8

11.5

12.1

11.8

11.3

11.9

12.5

12.4

12.2

12.8

13.1

15.0

12,0

12.5

12.4

12.3

12.8

13.0

13.9

12.7

11.9

12.3

12.2

12.0

12.4

12.8

11.7

10.6

III

11.9

12.3

12.2

12.1

12.4

12.7

11.9

11.5

12.5

11.9

12.2

12.1

12.0

12.2

12.4

11.7

11.4

11.7

11.0

10.1

9.7

9.6

9.0

8.5

* * * * *k * * * * * * * *

1978

IV Alt.

11.0

11.2

11.1

10.9

11.0

10.8

10.7

10.6

Alt.

10.9

11.1

10.9

10.7

10.8

10.7

10.5

10.4

9.9

9.4

9.3

8.6

8.0

Alt.

10.8

10.9

10.8

10.6

10.7

10.5

10.3

10.2

9.6

9.2

8.9

8.3

7.6

Based on quarterly average data.

3/17/78

CHART 1

MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M 1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

350

330

310

I I290 I

BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2

1976

1977

1978

N 1977

F 1978

CHART 2

3/17/78

MONETARY AGGREGATES BANK CREDIT

SEND

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

OF MONTH

900

860

820

780

740

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 37 WEEKLY AVERAGES

TOTAL

- 36

- 35

- 34

II33 1976

1977

1978

CHART 3

3/17/78

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

PER CENT 7

INTEREST RATES Short-term

PER CENT

RESERVES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I

1976

1977

1978

1 2

1976

1977

1978

1976

1977

1978

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS fI-FOMC

Table 1

MONETARY AGGREGATES

MAR. 17, 1978

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Broad Narrow

Period

Total U.S. Govt.

CDurces Other

avins

Total

Deposits i

(M2)

(Ml)

Time & Savings Deposits Other Than CDs

Total

CD's

Nondeposit of Funds 2/

MONTHLY LEVELS-SBIL 1977--DEC. 1978-JAN. FEB. MAR.

ANNUAL

335.4 337.4 336.3 (337.7)

812.0 814.4 (818.73

10.6 6.1

10.4 6.9

806.5

(

11.4 9.7 7.5 7.91

471.1

545.8 550.9 557.4 (562.3)

478.0 (481.0)

8.5 15.2

10.4 7.3

252.8 255.2 256.4 (261.5)

218.3 219.4 219.6 (219.5)

474.6

74.7 76.3 79.4

61.6 63.8 66.3

(81.2)

GROWTH

(UAKTEKLY 1977--3KD OTK. 4TH OTR.

(

2.7)

1978--1ST QTR.

6.1)

(

S 8.4)

12.1)

(

-4.4 72.8

11.1 13.1

9.6 0.9

(13.8)

2.21

(34.81

OUARTERLY-AV

9.3 6.8

1977-3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1978--15T

10.3

3.61

QTR.

(

10.9

10.0 12.9

7.6 6.0)

6.6 4.4

8.1 (

7.81

(

3.2

15.0 11.2

2.21

48.2

(47.0)

(12.6)

(

13.0)

7.6 7.2 -3.9 5.0)

(

12.2 11.2 14.2 10.5

0.0 6.0 1.1 -0.51

8.1 11.4 15.0 14.4)

64.3 25.7 48.8 27.2)

O.5)

(

12.4)

0.3)

14.8)

38.5)

MONTHLY 1977--DEC. 1978-JAN. FEB. MAR. FEB.-MAR. MEEKLY LEVELS-$8IL 1978-FEB.

MAR.

1 8 15 22

336.0 337.3 336.4 335.9

811.7 814.8 814.2 814.4

9.8 10.0 7.3 6.3

553.0 555.9 556.8 558.3

475.7 477.5 477.8 478.6

219.6 219.7 219.9 219.8

256.1 257.8

257.9 258.8

77.3 78.4 79.0 79.7

70.1 65.0 61.3 69.3

1 8

334.9 335.9

813.5 815.4

6.1 7.3

559.3 561.0

478.6 479.5

219.5

259.1 259.8

80.8 81.3

69.1

-1

NOTE: 1/ 2/

219.7

P - PRELIMINARY DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. INCLUDES BORROWINGS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS 1N THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, MENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN (EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS), LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RP4, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS.

SECURITIES SOLD UNDER AGREEFOREIGN BRANCHES

Table 1-A

TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXCEPT AS NOTED T im e

eriod

CLASS-FOMC NAR.

17, 1978

Time Deposits

Savings Deposits

Total

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)

Memo: Large

and Savings

Total

Indi al Nonprofit

Business (NSA)

Government (NSA)

Total

514.8 519.5 522.5 525.8 532.2 540.3 545.8 550.9 557.4

212.7 213.6 216.2 217.8 218.4 218.3 218.3 219.4 219.6

196.9 198.6 201.4 203.3 204.2 204.5 204.7 205.a 206.0

9.9 9.9 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.1 10.1 9.7 9.6

6.0 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.2 3.7 3.6 3.9 4.0

302.1 305.9 306.3 308.0 313.9 322.0 327.5 331.5 337.8

137.9 140.8 141.0 142.0 147.2 15o.6 161.8 164.9 170.9

164.2 165.1 165.3 166.0 166.7 165.4 165.7 166.5 166.9

63.9 b2.8 63.2 63.2 66.4 70.9 74.7 76.3 79.4

54.7

16.5

17.5

1.6

-2.5

38.2

24.4

13.7

11.4

1976-IV

14.3

11.6

8.4

1.4

1.9

1.5

-5.6

8.1

-3.1

1977--I II III IV

15.1 10.4 12.7 16.8

10.4 4.4 3.5 2.4

7.1 4.4 4.9 3.4

1.2 0.7 0.1 0.1

2.1 -0.5 -1.6 -0.9

4.7 5.9 9.3 14.4

-0.2 -1.4 0.4 13.9

4.9 7.3 3.0 0.4

0.3 -0.3 0.5 7.6

Large Small Negotiable CD's Denomination Denomination

OUTSTANDING (S BILLIONS) 197T--JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1978--JAN. FEB.

CHANGES ($ BILLIONS) 1977 YEAR QUARTERLY AVERAGEs

MONTHLY AVERAGE: 1977-AUG.

3.0

2.6

2.8

0.2

-0.Z

0.4

0.2

0.4

SEPT.

3.3

1.6

1.9

0.0

-0.4

1.7

1.0

0.7

0.0

OCT. NOV. DEC. 1978-JAN.

6.4 8.1 565 5.1

0.6 -0.1 0.U 1.1

0.9 0.3 0.2 1.1

-0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4

-0.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.3

5.2 9.4 5.2 3.1

0.7 -1.3 0.3 0.8

3.2 4.5 3.8 1.6

FEB.

6.5

0.2

-0.1

0.1

5.9 8.1 5.5 4.0 6.3

6.0

0.4

3.1

NOTEI COLUMNS (1)i 12), AND (9) ON THIS TABLE CORRESPOND TO COLUMNS 14), (6), ANO IB), RLSPECTIVELYe ON TABLE 1--MONtTARY AGGREGATES. FIGURES IN COLUMNS (11) (2)1 AND 16) REFLECT DAILY DATA REPORTED BY MEMBER BANKS, WITH ESTIMATES FUK NONMEMBER BANKS DERIVED FROM DATA REPORTED BY SMALL MEMBER BANKS, BENCHMARKED TO NONMEMBER CALL KEPORT FIGURtS. SAVINGS DfPOSITS OF BUSINESS ANU

GOVERNMENTAL UNITS-COLUMNS (4) AND (5)-- AND LARGE DENOMINATION TIME DEPOSITS --COLUMN (7)--REFLECT BREAKUOONS REPORTEU EACH

WEDNESDAY BY LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS BLOWN UP TO REPRESENT DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS ON THE BASIS UF CALL KEPURT RELATIONSHIPS.

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 2

BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

MONTHLY

17,

1978

REQUIRED RESERVES

BANK RESERVES Total

Nonborrowed

Monetary

Reserves

Base

36,207 36,689 36,941 (36,439)

35,637 36,405 36,536 (36,075)

127,911 129,612 130,179 (130,031)

Period

MAR.

Total Required

Private Demand

Total Time Deposits

21,454 21,742 21,838 (21,275)

12,854 13,038 13,074

Gov't. and Interbank

LEVELS-SMILLIONS

1977--DEC. 1978-JAN. FEB. MAR. PERCENT ANNUAL

36,017 36,623 36,693 (36,186)

(13

210)

1,709

1,843 ( 1,701)

GROWTH

QUARTERLY 1977-3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1978--1ST QTR.

(

2.6)

10.2 6.8

4.6 7.3

8.8 6.5

S 6.6)

.9)

2.6 15.0

13.2 3.3

8.1 o.a

(-3.3)

1.9)

(

11.1)

QUARTERLY-AV

1978-1ST QTR.

(

8.0)

9.6 6.7

3.4 2.9

9.0 5.6

1977-3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

(

13.8)

(

8.6 5.6

9.3)

(

6.3 6.6

10.2 4.9 ( 3.61

7.6)1

(

14.4)

MONTHLY 1977--DEC. 1978--JAN. FEB. MAR.

6.6 22.6 1.7 -16.3)

FEB.-MAR.

-7.3)

16.7 25.9 4.3 (-15.1)

(

-5.4)

9.1 16.0 5.3 -1.4) 1.9)

8.7 20.2 2.3 -16.6

( (

-7.2)

(

1.0 16.1 5.3 -30.9)

-12.9)

19.7 17.2 3.3 12.5) 7.9)

WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1978-FEB.

MAR.

NOTEt

36,363 36,869 36,823 36,322

129,928 130,178 130,1t0 130,336

36,675

36,833 37,362 37,104 36,768

1 8 15

36,479 36,251 36,298

36,089 35,855 36,050

130,040 129,413 129,482

36,327 35,937 36.142

1 6 15

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOMN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

36,992 36,926 36,476

ASSOCIATED

WITH CHANGES

21,834 22,108 22,160

il,427 21,627 21,142

21.153

13,011 13,025 13,054 13,117

1,830 1,859 1,712 1,931

13,117 13,145 13,192

1,584 1,650

IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT

1,798

RATIO.

TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES-' ($ million, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Treasury Bills Net Change 2/

Within 1 year

-490 7,232 1,280 -468 863 4,361 1976--Qtr. IV

-886

1977--Qtr. I

1,164 2,126 886 186

Qtr. II Qtr. III

Qtr. IV 1977--Sept.

Dec.

-1,877 -736 2,798

1978--Jan. Feb.

-627 -2,695

Nov.

1978--Jan.

4 11 18 25

Feb.

1 8 15 22 1 8 15 22p 29

5 - 10

Over 10

Total

789 579 797 3,284 3,025 2,833

539 500 434 1,510 1,048 758

167 129 196 1,070 642 553

1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187 4,660

794

232

192

1,294

Within 1 year

Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Over 5 5 - 10 10

592 400 1,665 824 469 792 -41

Total

681

311

128

108

1,001

100

556

-1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607 -2,892

115

436

304

2,738 3,666 4,273 -643 -4,881

-860 -275 -1,358 -200

-248

448

275

Net RP's 6/

1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227 10,035

1,021

.66

Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/

1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891 1,433

1,680 959 1,021 1,001

1,385

Oct.

Mar.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MARCH 17, 1978

-4,771 4,175 -2,331 34 1,883

-4,380 -736 4,474

-6,530 2,996 3,568

--- ----

-2,717

-7,149 4,141

-9 -347 696 440

-4,526 -7,893 5,232 -2,239 5,009 -5,745 4,629 2,408

--- -----

---882 ---275

--- ----

----1,358

--- -- 862

351

-- --

-44

----200

-1,474 -4,050 612

1,024

9.6 7.6 59.9 LEVEL--Mar. 15 1.4 4.0 1.6 .9 7.9 107.8 (in billions) i Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term note s acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing fro m the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redeInptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System ho Ldings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

TABLE 4

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC MARCH 17, 1978

SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars)

U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions

Underwriting Syndicate Positions Municipal Corporate Bonds Bonds

OFR)

Member Bank Reserve Positions Basic Reserve Deficit** Borrowing at FRB** Excess** ' Reserves

8 New York

38 Others -12,744 - 6,908

Bills

Coupon Issues

1976--High Low

8,896 3,668

3,046 175

1977--High Low

7,234 1,729

3,017 -1,445

1977--Feb. Mar.

4,450 4,906

1,650 972

198 214

72 103

4,567

696 123 206

192

73 206 262

-6,586 -5,693

-309 -933 -313

275 200 209

323 1,084

-6,391 -5,581

626

-7,333

-360 610 804

210

1,305

-6,480

251 193

863

-6,971 -7,403

-11,511 -11,825 -11,350

-6,047 7 -5,00 p

-12,299 -12,558p

-6,675 -7,699 -6,352 -5,496

- 8,533 -13,055 -13,938 -12,729

185 292

-3,993 -5,056 -4,906 -5,241

-11,516 -13,137 -13,295 -12,344

152p 314p 148p

-4,962p -7,142p 49 7 -7, p

-11,444p -11,527p -11,606p

3,072 4,752 July Aug. Sept.

3,899 2,533

4,812 4,142 3,617 4,257

1978--Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

242 24

-8,161

513

1,861

-9,151 -4,234

-13,975

-5,604

-11,503 -10,912

-111

213

154

327 *1,492

293 197

268

4 11 18 25

4,416 5,625 3,565 3,167

1,247 369 -221 365

316 284

287

1 8 15 22

3,599

4,127

1 8 15 22 29

3,842

4,128 *3,185

*2,176 *2,807 *2,923

273

297

315

674 2,043 1,264 *968

154

158 370

*1,577 *1,290 *891

253

210 236p

-2,367

20 12 13

-5,661

-5,341

570

269p

313 261

151 251 231

Seasonal

655 -180

*3,418

1978--Jan. Feb.

Total

32 50p

- 8,206

-11.409 -10,175 -10,332 -11,012 -11,452 -11,120

NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * **

Strictly confidential. Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

TABLE 5

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MARCH 17, 1978

SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent)

Treasury Federal 90-day Funds ' 2) (1)

Short-Term Bills CD's New Issue-NYC 90-Day 1-Year (4) (3)

Comm. Paper 90-119 Day (5)

Bank Prime Rate (6)

U.S. Govt.-Constant Maturity Yields 20-yr 7-yr 3-yr (8) (9) (7)

Long-Term Corp.-Aaa Utility Municipal Bond Recently New Buyer Offered Issue (11) (12) (10)

Home Mortgages Secondary Market Primary FNMA Auc. IGNMA Sea Cony. (15) (14) (13)

1976--High Low

5.58 4.63

5.53 4.27

6.32 4.62

5.75 4.50

5.90 4.63

7.25 6.25

7.52 5.65

7.89 6.33

8.17 7.23

8.95 7.93

8.94 7.84

7.13 5.83

9.10 8.70

9.20 8.39

1977--High Low

6.65 4.47

6.27 4.41

6.62 4.67

6.70 4.50

6.66 4.63

7.75 6.25

7.39 5.83

7.70 6.59

7.99 7.26

8.36 7.90

8.48 7.95

5.93 5.45

9.00 8.65

8.98 8.46

1977--Feb. Mar.

4.68 4.69

4.67 4.60

5.16 5.19

4.70 4.72

4.76 4.75

6.25 6.25

6.44 6.47

7.16 7.20

7.64 7.73

8.22 8.25

8.19 8.29

5.89 5.89

8.67 8.69

8.55 8.68

Apr. May June

4.73 5.35 5.39

4.54 4.96 5.02

5.10 5.43 5.41

4.67 5.16 5.35

4.75 5.26 5.42

6.25 6.41 6.75

6.32 6.55 6.39

7.11 7.26 7.05

7.67 7.74 7.64

8.26 8.33 8.08

8.22 8.31 8.12

5.73 5.75 5.62

8.75 8.83 8.86

8.67 8.74 8.75

7.96 8.04 7.95

July Aug. Sept.

5.42 5.90 6.14

5.19 5.49 5.81

5.57 5.97 6.13

5.28 5.78 6.01

5.38 5.75 6.09

6.75 6.83 7.13

6.51 6.79 6.84

7.12 7.24 7.21

7.60 7.64 7.57

8.15 8.04 8.07

8.12 8.05 8.07

5.63 5.62 5.51

8.95 8.94 8.90

8.72 8.76 8.74

7.96 8.03 8.02

Oct. Nov. Dec.

6.47 6.51 6.56

6.16 6.10 6.07

6.52 6.52 6.52

6.53 6.56 6.65

6.51 6.54 6.61

7.52 7.75 7.75

7.19 7.22 7.30

7.44 7.46 7.59

7.71 7.76 7.87

8.23 8.28 8.34

8.22 8.25 8.38

5.64 5.49 5.57

8.92 8.92 8.96

8.82 8.86 8.94

8.16 8.19 8.27

1978--Jan. Feb.

6.70 6,78

6.44 6.45

6.80 6.86

6.82 6.77r

6.75 6.76

7.93 8.00

7.61 7.67

7.86 7.94

8.14 8.22

8.68 8.69

8.60 8.67

5.71 5.62

9.02 9.15

9.17 9.31

8.56 8.64

4 11 18 25

6.69 6.58 6.78 6.72

6.16 6.48 6.50 6.46

6.55 6.81 6.87 6.83

6.65 6.87 6.87 6.88

6.68 6.69 6.80 6.79

7.75 7.82 8.00 8.00

7.40 7.71 7.66 7.65

7.72 7.93 7.89 7.89

8.01 8.18 8.16 8.17

8.48

5.64

9.00

8.65

5.75

9.03

8.65

5.74

8.98

8.62

5.70

9.05

1 8 15 22

6.80 6.75 6.76 6.78

6.42 6.44 6.46 6.48

6.80 6.83 6.86 6.91

6.81 6.75 6.75 6.75

6.76 6.76 6.76 6.78

8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00

7.58 7.62 7.71 7.74

7.85 7.91 7.99 7.99

8.17 8.20 8.25 8.25

8.65 8.69 -8.71

8.60 8.64 8.68 8.70

5.63 5.59 5.61 5.65

9.13 9.15 9.15 9.15

6.80 6.76 6.77

6.41 6.33 6.27

6.85 6.83 6.81

6.75 6.75 6.73

6.75 6.75 6.75

8.00 8.00 8.00

7.71 7.69 7.64p

7.95 7.94 7.91p

8.21 8.21 8.17p

8.70

5.63 5.58 5.58

9.15 9.15 n.a.

6.76 6 .75p

6.25 6.25

6.81 6.79

8.00 8.00

7.68 6 7. 4p

7.95 7.91p

8.20 8.17p

1978--Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

8 15 22 29 Daily--Mar.

9 16

-6.75 -6.75

8.70 8.68 -

8.65 8.64p

9.13 9.21

9.27 9.35

8.43 8.54 8.60 8.59 8.62 8.62 8.65 8.68

NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1, 2, 3, 5, and 6 are statement week averages of daily data. Data in column 4 are 1-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7 through 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 11 and 12 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 13 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 14 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 15 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities tor immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling.

MAR.

17,

1978

AWppedi Tale 1-A

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES Revised Series i

lerwvIYs

__,,P,_

Total

Nonborrowed

Monetary Base

Loans and Investmrnts

(PIER CENT .ANNU

ANNUALLY:

1975 1976 1977

-0.2 1.0 5.2

3.2 1.2 2.7

5.9 7.0 8.3

__,,,

total Period

Mseeey Saks* Measures

3.9 8.0 10.9

4.4 5.7 7.8

8.9

RATES OF SOWTN) C.3 10.9 .8

11.1 12.8 11.7

6.5 7.1 10.0

9. 10.3 11.7

10.4 10.0 11.4

10.0 10.2 11.4

5.5

10.8

12.7

7.8

10.8

10.0

10.1

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF

1976

3.5

3.6

1ST HALF 2ND HALF

1977 1977

2.9 7.3

2.3 3.1

7.9 8.4

II-

7.6 7.7

10.1 9.0

11.3 11.4

9.3 10.2

10.8 12.0

10.7 11.6

10.9 11.4

1977 1977 1977 1977

-1.6 6.5 8.9 6.1

-2.2 4.7 4.7 6.8

5.1 8.9 9.5 9.3

10.6 12.6 8.6 8.3

7.3 7.7 6.2

10.0 8.5 10.1 7.0

11.3 9.9 12.7 9.1

9.0 8.4 9.6 11.2

10.6 9.8 12.3 11.6

11.4 9.6 11.7 11.2

11.7 9.8 11.5 11.1

2.7 3.i 8.9 5.7

2.6 2.0 3.3 3.0

6.7 8.9 7.7 8.9

9.5 13.3 9.6 9.3

6.9 8.1 6.1 7.2

10.9 9.0 9.9 8.0

12.2 10.2 11.9 10.6

10.2 8.2 9.5 10.7

11.7 9.6 11.6 12.1

11.4 9.6 11.1 11.7

11.5 10.0 10.9 11.5

15.9 10.9 15.7 12.0 9.6 9.5 12.3 3.8 13.5 11.8 -0.7

5.3 7.6 13.9 1.1 7.6t 11.5 6.2 8.7 10.9 0.4 7.2

9.2 9.6 10.8 5.3 9.4 13.3 7.7. 9.0 9.7 5.4 5.7

10.7 10.4 11.0 8.0 10.5 13.9 11.7 12.2 11.8 7.8 7.6

8.6 7.4 9.1 6.6 9.2 11.7 7.5 9.2 12.5 11.2 9.6

10.3 6.9 9.9 8.8 10.4 12.8 11.5 12.2 13.3 11.3 9.8

12.9 8.5 9.4 8.9 10.2 12.0 10.9 11.8 12.8 11.0 9.6

13.2 9.2 9.7 9.1 10.2 11.6 10.8 11.6 12.6 10.8 9.5

12.1 10.1

9.6 -1.1

8.9 4.4

8.6 5.2

11.3 6.2

10.1 7.5

9.9 7.5

9.8 7.5

16.9

QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH

QTR. QTR. QTR. QTR.

b.9

QUARTERLY-AV: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH

QTR. QTR. QTR. OTR.

1977 1977 1977 1977

MONTHLYs 1977--FEB. MAR. APR. NAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

-12.4 -3.1 12.5 2.8 4.2 15.4 10.7 0.3 8.5 4.3 5.4

-12.6 -4.2 13.6 -1.8 2.3 13.5 -14.5 15.4 -14.6 19.8 15.5

-1.0 5.3

1978--JAN. FEI.P

22.4 2.8

25.7 5.4

15.5

1/ 2/ P -

17.6

8.5 0.3 11.1

9.2 7.9 9.6 7.8 10.3 4.7

BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESEkVE BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. PRELIMINARY

REQUIKREMNTS.

MAR. 17, 1978

AppedWi Tahe 1-8

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLAfR Revised Series

hok Reserves 1/ Period

TPero Total

Nonborrowed

Monetary Base

Moy Stock Measures

Bank CmWt Total Tol Loans and

investments

___

'------

ANNUALLY:

36,189

33,865 34,395 35,619

110,371 118,070 128,019

725.5 ?bb.k 76b.2 870.0

294.5 312.6 336.7

664.1 739.6 807.6

1091.8 1235.6 1374.1

745.4 802.3 b81.6

1173.2 1298.3 1448.1

1306.7 1437.1 1601.1

1349.5 1486.7 1657.0

1977--FEB. MAR.

34,401 34,312

34,330 34,209

119,040 119,566

b01.8

316.3 318.3

752.1 758.1

1259.7 1270.6

815.3 820.3

1323.0 1332.8

1467.5

809.1

1477.9

1518.6 1530.2

APR. MAY JUNE

34,669 34,751 34,873

34,596 34,545 34,610

121,319 122,180 122,214

819.7 827.9 834.5

322.0 322.3 324.4

764.9 768.3 774.3

1282.2 1290.8 1302.1

826.5 831.2 837.6

1343.8 1353.7 1365.4

1489.5 1500.5 1513.2

1542.6 1554.3 1567.5

JULY AUG. SEPT.

35,321 35,636 35,646

34,998 34,576 35,020

123,344 124,291 125,113

841.1 852.4

327.5 329.2 331.6

782.9 787.9 793.8

1317.2 1330.0 1343.5

845.8 651.1 857.6

1380.0 1393.2 1407.4

1528.3 1542.2 1557.4

1582.7 1596.9 1612.4

LT. NOV. DEC.

35,898 36,027 36,189

34,593 35,165 35,619

126,115 126,934 128,019

*62.0 b70.5 870.0

334.6 334.7 336.7

800.2 803.8 807.6

1356.7 1365.5 1374.1

866.5 674.6 881.6

1423.0 1436.4 1448.1

1574.0 1588.4 1601.1

1629.3 1644.0 1657.0

1978--JAN. FEb.P

36,865 36,951

36,381 36,546

129,673 130,177

876.8

339.4 339.1

813.6 816.6

1384.0 1390.0

889.9 896.0

1460.3 1469.4

1614.3 1624.4

1670.5 1680.9

11 16 25

36,172 37,517 36,917

35,730 37,099 36,325

128,848 130,245 129,806

336.7 339.5 339.6

612.4 814.0 814.6

888.0 890.0 891.3

1 b 15 22

36,845 37,375 37,122 36,770

36,376 36,882 36,841 36,324

129,885 130,279 130,306 130,146

Z39.2

339.4 338.9 339.4

814.5 816.4 816.1 817.5

892.2 894.9 895.1 897.2

36,487 36,261

36t097 35,865

129,994 129,487

339.4 339.1

817.5 818.4

898.4 900.3

1975 1976 1977

33,995

34,448

MONTHLY:

849.7

88b.;

WEEKLY:

1978-JAN.

FEB.

MAR.

WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. EEKLY DATA ARE M3, M5, M6b M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ bASEU UN DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE RE.UIREMENTS. DATA SHOWN IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS. P - PRELIMINARY

MOTES:

NOT AVAILABLE

FOR

MAR.

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

1978

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Revised Series Mutual Savings Bank & Shares /

Time and Savings Deposits Period

nd Demand Deposits

Currency

Tol

Total

8.9 9.6 9.5

3.0 4.4 7.2

7.9 a.0 11.4

11.7

7.8

4.7

9.3

8.7 9.8

7.2 7.0

8.4 9.2 9.5 10.2

6.5

Other Than CD's Savings Other

5 6 7 8 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

Credit Union

Savings

Other Short Term Private U.S.Govt Short-term Asse1 1/ 11

ANNUALLY: 1975 1976 1977

11.2

17.5 25.0 10.5

7.8 7.5 11.8

-23.4 12.8

15.3 15.5 14.2

14.9

19.8

10.7

-21.7

10.4 11.8

11.9 9.9

15.0 5.6

9.0 14.0

0.6 24.9

6.9 7.1 8.7 4.7

10.0 8.9 9.9 14.5

12.0 9.2 7.6

16.3 5.1 9.6 0.9

8.2 12.9 12.0 13.6

6.4 7.8 7.7 6.2

12.2 8.3 10.3 13.0

13.7 9.7 11.2 8.5

21.1 8.5 6.6 4.4

7.2

10.7 7.2 6.0 10.5 10.1 11.9 8.3 9.2 13.7 18.3 10.9

12.0 11.0 8.5 8.4 10.5 14.9 8.4

10.4 10.9 4.5 0.0 5.1

8.6 9.3 4.6

8.9 3.3 -0.5 0.0

12.3

b.4 8.4

6.0 1.1

15.0

19.5 18.8 19.4

33.4 7.5 9.9

-1.0 19.2 12.1

15.5

18.1

-1.4

15.2

12.9 14.5

16.6 20.6

12.5 6.8

16.5 7.1

-3.2 7.1 3.2 64.0

13.0 11.6 11.6

17.4 15.7 21.7 18.8

31.1 8.3 4.9 8.1

20.9 15.3 5.2 6.5

3.2 -1.9 4.5

13.9 11.6 14.6 13.9

17.6 14.9 2U. 20.11 20.0

11.1 5.5 8.1

12.9 19.5 7.4 6.6

12.7 11.0

68.9 5.0 3.3 11.6 9.9 0.0 6.5 8.1 8.1 8.0 7.9

21.5 28.2 18.4 15.8 11.2 2.2 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5

7.9 7.8

6.4 6.4

-6.4

SENI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF

1976

1ST HALF 1977 2ND HALF 1977 QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH

QTR. QTR. QTR. QTR.

1977 1977 1977 1977

10.8

16.2

QUARTERLY-AV; 1LT 2NO 3RD 4TH

QTR. QTR. QTR. QTR.

1977 1977 1977 1977

8.8 9.1 10.3

10.7

15.6 12.0

44.9

13.6

MONTHLY: 1977--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

8.9 7.3 10.2 8.7 8.6 11.4 11.2 11.1 8.3 10.9

4.1 7.7 15.3 -1.5 7.5 11.0 6.9 7.9 10.8 -2.4 5.8

1978--JAN. FEB.P

10.8 9.4

9.2 -4.8

5.6

14.0

9.6 11.6 6.3 11.9

14.6

10.9

-9.5

14.3

7.6 11.4 48.9 81.3 52.5

17.1 16.6 11.0 9.3

10.5

37.3

14.6

48.8

7.4 5.7

17.9 12.6

23.8 3.0 8.9 13.8 18.5 8.1

14.6

6.9

-11.6 25.3 7.6

18.1 14.9 14.7 14.5 17.2 19.8 19.5 24.7 21.5 15.8 18.2

20.1

1/ GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 2/ BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA.

3.8 -20.9

11.6 12.0

14.0

L _________________ I a_________________

BY AVERAGING

END OF CURRENT

MONTH

AND

END

APPENDIX TABLE 23-

MAR. 17, 1978

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Revised Series;

Time and Savins D.oselts

Mutual

sd sead loving@ Depositsanl

Currency Demand Deposits

Period

Dot

Credit

Ban" & S&L Shares

Totl Ta

Other Than CDs Other ISavings

Total

Union SavinIs Shares Bonds i 1

Short-

Other

Term U.S Gov't Sec j

Private

73.7 80.7 88.5

220.8 231.9 248.2

450.9 469.7 544.9

369.6 427.0 470.9

160.5

Z01.8 218.3

209.1 225.2 252.6

81.3 62.7 74.0

394.8 456.9 519.7

33.0 39.1 46.8

67.3 71.9 77.0

76.0

81.9 62.4

234.4 235.9

499.0 502.0

435.8 439.8

208.2 210.0

227.6 229.8

63.3 62.2

467.4 471.7

40.3 40.8

72.7 73.0

APR. MAY JUNE

83.1 83.7 84.3

238.9 238.6 240.1

504.5

442.9 446.0

211.9 212.7

231.0 233.3

449.9

212.7

237.2

61.6 62.9 63.3

476.0 480.6 485.4

41.3 41.0 42.4

JULY AUG. SEPT.

85.1

242.3 243.7 245.3

518.3 521.9 525.9

455.5 45b.7 462.1

213.6

491.2 498.2 505.1

43.1

216.2 217.8

241.9 242.5 244.3

62.8

85.5 86.3

OCT.

87.1 67.7 86.5

247.5 247.0 248.2

531.9 540.0 544.9

465.5

218.4 218.3 218.3

247.1 250.9 252.6

66.4

469.1 470.9

511.0 515.7 519.7

09.3 90.0

250.1 249.1

550.5 556.9

474.2 477.5

219.4t 219.6

254.8 257.9

76.3 79.4

89.1

249.6 250.3 250.4

549.3 550.5 551.5

473.7 474.5 474.6

220.0 219.9 219.9

253.7 254.9

75.5 76.0 76.7

89.9 90.0 90.2

249.6 249.5 248.9 249.3

553.0 555.4 556.2 557.8

475.3 477.0 477.2 478.1

219.6 219.7

255.7 257.2 257.3 258.3

90.2 90.3

249.2 248.8

559.0 561.2

478.2 479.3

219.5

258.7 259.6

Non-

66.3

42.6

66.9

49.7

Total

Gov't Deposit Fund Demand S Deposit

Shortterm Assets I

ANNUALLY: 1975 1976 1977

55.9

33.7 51.4 61.6

8.3 11.2 11.4

71.8 72.1

51.1 52.3

50.3 51.4

11.7 11.2

73.4 73.6 74.2

72.3 73.0 73.6

53.1 53.8 54.3

50.8 54.6 53.5

10.8 10.6 10.1

43.8 44.7

74.6 75.0 75.5

73.6 74.0

54.4 54.7 55.0

53.3 55.6 57.7

11.8 10.2 10.7

45.5

76.0

75.0

46.1 46.6

76.5

75.5

77.0

76.0

55.3 55.6 55.9

57.4 60.0 61.6

10.3 6.7 11.4

47.5 48.0

77.5 76.0

76.5 77.0

56.2 56.5

63.8 66.3

9.7 7.5

0.0 0.0 0.0

65.2 62.5 64.4

10.4 9.3 9.3

77.6 76.5 79.0 79.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

70.1 65.0 61.3 69.3

9.8 10.0 7.3 6.3

80.9 81.8

0.0 0.0

69.1

6.1 7.3

MONTHLY: 1977--FEb. MAR.

NOV. DEC. 1978--JAN. FEB.P

508.9 513.2

63.2 63.6

70.9 74.0

522.9

525.4

74.5

WEEKLY: 1978-JAN.

FEB.

MAR.

1/ 2/ 3/

4/ P -

11 1b 25 1 8 15 22 IP 8P

89.3 89.4 89.6

219.9

219.8 219.7

254.7

ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PktVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. INCLUDES PRIVATE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL INVESTURS' HOLDINGS OF COMMERCIAL PAPER, BANKERS ACCEPTANCES, SECURITY RP'S AND MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUND SHARES. BORROWINGS BY BANKS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SECURITIES SOLD UNDER AGREEMENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILIT1tS FUR bORROMED MONEYt PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES (EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS), LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITENS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1978, March 20). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19780321

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19780321,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1978},
  month = {Mar},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19780321},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}