bluebooks · May 15, 1978

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

May 12, 1978

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

May 12, 1978

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I

FOMC

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1)

Growth in M-1 accelerated to an annual rate of 19 per

cent in April, partly reflecting the sharp rebound in economic activity that is in process.

In addition, the month appears to

have been affected by transitory tax-related factors, including a build-up in individual cash balances to make larger than usual nonwithheld tax payments and some delay by the Treasury in processing such payments.

M-1 is expected to increase at about a 6-1/2 per cent

annual rate in May, given data thus far available in the month, bringing growth over the April-May period to around a 13

per cent

annual rate, well above the upper end of the Committee's range.

The

rapid expansion of M-1 also has boosted growth in M-2 over April and May to about an8-3/4 per cent annual rate, near the upper end of its two-month range.

The pick-up in deposit growth in April enabled

banks to accelerate their acquisitions of earning assets to a 21 per cent annual rate.

Deposit growth at nonbank thrift institutions

remained weak in April. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over April-May Period (SAAR in per cent) Ranges

Latest Estimates

M-1

4 to 8½

12.9

M-2

5½ to 9½

8.8

Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

6¾ to 7½

Avg. for statement week ending Apr. 19 6.78 26 7.00 May 3 7.27 7.32 10

-2(2) As incoming data on the aggregates continued to strengthen following the April FOMC meeting, the Desk raised its Federal funds rate target to around 7-1/4 per cent from the 6-3/4 per cent level which had prevailed since early January.

At a tele-

phone conference meeting on May 5, it was reported that growth in M-1 appeared to be well in excess of the Committee's range and growth in M-2 at the top

of its range.

To provide time for more evidence

on the economy and on the extent to which the strength in the aggregates would subside, the FOMC decided that the Desk should continue aiming for a 7-1/4 per cent Federal funds rate.

However, the Manager

was instructed to be more tolerant of deviations of the funds rate above the desired level than below it, and in the most recent statement week the Federal funds rate averaged 7.32 per cent. (3)

The increase in the Federal funds rate from the earlier

6-3/4 per cent level induced a sharp rise in member bank borrowing from Federal Reserve Banks.

In the statement week just ended, such borrow-

ing totalled $1.7 billion, up from a level of $239 million in the week of April 19.

The discount rate was raised 1/2 point to 7 per cent on

May 11, in order to bring it into better alignment with market rates, and most recently member bank borrowing has declined substantially. Still, increased member bank borrowing on average is estimated to supply the bulk of the 11-1/4 per cent expansion in total reserves over the April-May period. (4) Along with the rise in the Federal funds rate, most short- and longer-term market interest rates have risen by 20 to 45

-3basis points since the April Committee meeting, and the bank prime rate was increased from 8 to 8-1/4 per cent.

Demands of nonfinancial businesses

for short-term credit remained quite strong, as evidenced by substantial increases in both commercial paper and bank business loans in April. The Treasury, on the other hand, has paid down $12 billion of cash mangement bills since the April tax date, contributing to a relative scarcity of short-term bills.

The reduction in the available supply of these

instruments has helped to limit the response of many short-term interest rates to the firming of money market conditions.

In its mid-May refund-

ing, the Treasury redeemed $1.9 billion of the $5.9 billion of publicly held maturing issues and offered a total of $4 billion in a 10 year note and a 22-1/4 year bond.

Dealers distributed the bulk of their awards

of the bond and about half of their holdings of the new notes within a day or two of the auction.

Despite the rise in interest rates, stock

prices have moved higher on balance over the inter-meeting period. (4)

Conditions in mortgage markets have continued to tighten.

Rates on primary conventional mortgages have risen 15 basis points since mid-April, bringing the increase in this rate over the first four months of 1978 to about 1/2 percentage point.

In addition, savings and loan

associations reduced their outstanding level of loan commitments again in March, and concern about further upward movements in mortgage rates has contributed to a marked rise in offerings at FNMA auctions of forward purchase commitments. (6)

The table on the next page shows percentage annual rates

of change in related monetary and financial flows over various time periods.

1976 & 1977 Average

Past Twelve Months Apr. '78 over Apr. '77

Past Six Months Apr. '78 over Oct. '77

Past Three Months Apr. '78 over Jan. '78

Past Month Apr. '78 over Mar. '77

Nonborrowed reserves

1.5

5.0

11.1

3.4

2.8

Total reserves

2.1

6.4

6.5

4.1

10.2

Monetary Base

7.6

8.7

8.5

6.0

8.1

6.9

7.3

6.5

7.2

19.1

M-2 (M-1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's)

10.3

8.2

6.9

7.0

11.3

M-3 (M-2 plus deposits at thrift institutions)

12.2

9.9

7.7

7.3

9.9

M-3 (M-2 plus CD's)

8.8

10.3

9.6

12.1

M-5 (M-3 plus CD's)

11.1

9.8

8.8

10.4

Month-end basis

9.5

10.9

11.0

13.9

21.5

Monthly average

9.3

11.1

10.7

11.1

12.5

-0.3

1.8

2.8

2.4

1.4

0.2

0.5

0.6

Concepts of Money M-1 (Currency plus demand deposits) 1/

Bank Credit Loans and investments of all commercial banks 2/

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions --which are derived from either end-of-month or Wednesday statement date figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (7) The table below presents for Committee consideration two alternative sets of specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate for the forthcoming intermeeting period. (More detailed and longer-term data for the aggregates are shown in the tables on pp. 6 and 7.) Alt. A

Alt. B

M-1

4½ to 8½

4 to 8

M-2

5 to 9

4½ to 8½

7 to 7¾

7½ to 8¼

Ranges for May-June

Federal funds rate (Intermeeting period) (8)

Growth in M-1 is expected to slow considerably over

the two-month May-June period from the extraordinary April rate, partly because the temporary impact of tax-related factors should be unwinding. Under alternative A--which encompasses a range for the Federal funds rate centered on its recently prevailing level of around 7-3/8 per cent--M-1 is expected to expand in a 4 range over the May-June period.

to 8

per cent annual rate

Given this projection, the level

of M-1 in each month of the second quarter would be above levels implied by the FOMC's longer-run range, as shown in Chart 1 on the following page.

Growth in M-1 in the second quarter

would be at a 9¼ per cent annual rate, reflecting for the most part the sharp rebound in economic activity this quarter, when nominal GNP is now anticipated to expand at a 17½ per cent annual rate.

Chart 1

RECENTLY ESTABLISHED M-1 GROWTH RANGES AND ACTUAL M-1

ILLIONS OF DOLLARS 6% -

Projection

Q1 '78-01 '79

360

350

340 '

Q4 '77- -Q4 '78

S350 -

.cC-

340

320

350

Q3 '77-Q3 '78

310

340

320

-1350

310

Q2 '77-

Q2 '78

320

310

320

310 1977

1978

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M-1

M-2

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. A

Alt. B

1978

April May June

345.5 347.4 349.2

345.5 347.3 348.9

827.9 832.2 837.9

827.9 832.1 837.2

1978

QI QII QIII QIV

339.5 347.4 352.2 354.8

339.5 347.2 351.6 354.5

816.8 832.7 848.2 863.0

816.8 832.4 847.0 862.0

1979

357.3

877.4

877.1

6.6 6.2

6.3 5.5

6.2 8.2

6.1 7.4

Growth Rates Monthly: 1978

May June

Quarterly Average: 1978

QII QIII QIV

9.3 5.5 3.0

9.1 5.1 3.3

7.8 7.4 7.0

7.6 7.0 7.1

1979

2.8

3.2

6.7

7.0

7.5 2.9

7.1 3.2

7.7 6.9

7.4 7.1

5.2

7.4

Semi-Annual: QI '78-QIII '78 QIII '78-QI '79 Annual: QI '78-QI '79

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) M-3

Bank Credit

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. A

Alt. B

1978

April May June

1409.2 1417.2 1426.3

1409.2 1416.7 1425.0

905,0 913.4 920.6

905.0 913.4 920.3

1978

QI QII QIII QIV

1390.8 1417.6 1444.3 1470.0

1390.8 1417.0 1441.5 1466.7

888.2 913.0 932.4 951.0

888.2 912.9 932.1 950.3

1979

1495.1

1492.1

968.1

966.4

6.8 7.7

6.4 7.0

11.1 9.5

11.1 9.1

Growth Rates Monthly: 1978

May June

Quarterly Average: 1978

QII QIII QIV

7.7 7.5 7.1

7.5 6.9 7.0

11.2 8.5 8.0

11.1 8.4 7.8

1979

6.8

6.9

7.2

6.8

7.7 7.0

7.3 7.0

10.0 7.7

9.9 7.4

7.5

7.3

Semi-Annual: QI '78-QIII '78 QIII '78-QI '79 Annual: QI '78-QI

'79

9.0

8.8

(9) Growth in M-2 over the May-June period is also likely to be in a 5 to 9 per cent annual rate range under alternative A. Unlike levels of M-l, the implied levels of M-2 would be generally within the longer-run ranges adopted by the Committee for this aggregate, as shown in Chart 2 on the following page.1/ (10)

The recent and expected near-term increases in market

rates of interest will probably be associated with continued slow growth in savings deposits.

Banks are expected to benefit only

modestly from the June 1 introduction of the new 6-month and 8-year certificates, because these instruments are likely to be particularly attractive to the most interest-sensitive depositors who will probably 2/ take advantage of the higher rates offered by thrift institutions.2/ However, with loan demands expected to remain large, and demand deposits decelerating from their rapid growth in April, banks are projected to step up significantly their issuance of large-denomination time deposits.

Since a major portion of such instruments are included

in M-2, the interest-bearing component of this aggregate is expected to pick up somewhat from its reduced March-April pace. (11)

Even if the funds rate does not rise significantly

from recent levels, other short-term rates could edge up further 1/

Charts 3 and 4 showing the relationship between the short-run behavior of M-3 and bank credit and their longer-run ranges may be found following page 16.

On May 11, the Federal regulatory agencies announced authorization of a new 8-year certificate at ceiling rates of 8 and 7¾ per cent at thrifts and banks, respectively, and a 6-month, $10,000 minimum, certificate whose ceiling rate floats with the auction rate on 6-month Treasury bills; the 6-month certificate ceiling is of a percentage point more than the bill rate for thrifts and equal to the bill rate for banks.

Chart 2

RECENTLY ESTABLISHED M-2 GROWTH RANGES AND ACTUAL M-2

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-*-Projection

11'79

890

-875 (

6'A%

860

-845 -830 -Q4'78

815

845 830 9%

770 Q3'77-Q3'78

755 740

815

S845 830 815

770 755

S845

740 Q2'77-Q2'78 7%

770

-830 -815

755

800

740

785

770 755 740 1977

1978

-9over the weeks ahead.

Issuance of commercial paper and bank CD's is

likely to be substantial in coming weeks to accommodate the expected large business demands for credit.

Moreover, the Treasury is not

expected to retire bills, as it did following the April tax date, and it is possible that the Treasury may issue a sizable short-dated cash management bill in early June.

Finally, if the dollar continues to

strengthen on exchange markets, foreign official accounts might become significant net sellers of bills. (12)

Long-term rates are expected to show relatively little

change under the conditions of alternative A.

Public offerings of

corporate bonds are projected to remain moderate over the coming weeks, and State and local bond issuance should drop off markedly in late May after the effective date of the new IRS ruling with regard to sinking fund provisions of tax-exempt bond offerings.

the other hand, the Treasury--after retiring about $2 billion of coupon securities in the latest refunding--will probably raise about $2 to $2

billion of new cash when it sells the regular four-year

cycle note in early June.

In addition, the FHLB System will announce

terms for its mid-quarter refunding early next week, and is expected to raise about $1

billion in this operation.

Receptions for these

offerings could be quite good, however, since dealers have distributed the bulk of their awards of the Treasury refunding issues and have reestablished a short position in coupon issues. (13)

Alternative B calls for an increase in the Federal

funds rate to the mid-point of a now and mid-June.

7½ to 8¼ per cent range between

M-1 growth would likely be in a 4 to 8 per cent

-10annual rate range over May and June and M-2 growth in a 4-1/2 to 8-1/2 per cent range.

Under this alternative, short-term rates generally

might rise 1/2 percentage point or a little more.

With loan demands

expected to remain sizable, relatively prompt upward adjustments in the prime loan rate may be anticipated.

Moreover, a rise in

member bank borrowings would also increase pressure for another discount rate adjustment.

Bond yields too

could be expected to

rise, though increases may be limited since current market yields have probably anticipated some further monetary tightness.

The

widening spread between interest rates in the United States and the rest of the world would tend to provide support for the exchange value of the dollar. (14)

The staff believes that over the QI '78 to QI '79

period interest rates will have to rise to levels significantly higher than previously projected if M-1 growth is to be restrained to the mid-point, or perhaps even the upper half, of its 4 to 6½ per cent longer-run range.

M-1 is now expected to expand at about a

9¼ per cent annual rate in the second quarter--3¼ percentage points more than projected last month.

Consequently, in order to achieve

5¼ per cent M-1 growth over the four-quarter period, interest must rise sufficiently to restrain M-1 growth to an annual rate below 4 per cent over the remaining three quarters--an interval in which nominal GNP is projected to grow at an 11-3/4 per cent annual rate. The implied rates of increase in velocity--shown in Appendix II--are unusually large, more than twice the average of the past two years.

-11(15)

The Federal funds rate level that the staff believes

will be needed to induce such velocity increases are shown in Appendix I.

Under alternative A the Federal funds rate might need

to rise by fall into a range of 9 to 10 per cent--about one percentage point higher than projected last month.1 /

These projections assume

some further downward shift in the demand for money--as a result, for example, of more intensive marketing of previously introduced innovations 2/ and cash management services as interest rates rise.-

It should be

noted, though, that the relationship between money demand, income, and interest rates in the Board's econometric model has not generated any evidence of a further downward shift over the past five quarters. (16)

Under either alternative A or B, growth over the

quarters ahead of interest-bearing deposits subject to rate ceilings will slow more than projected last month.

Not only are market

interest rates now expected to be higher, but the upward adjustment in deposit rate ceilings announced by the regulatory agencies is less

Under alternative B, restraint would be introduced earlier and, as a result, the level of the funds rate required at the end of the longer-run policy period would be somewhat less--possibly in an 8¾ to 9¾ per cent range.

However, the staff as yet has made no allowance for the impact on measured M-1 of automatic transfers from savings accounts to demand deposits, scheduled to be authorized at commercial banks on November 1. This service is expected to have a significant depressing impact on the level of M-1, as balances are shifted from demand to savings accounts, and consequently is likely to reduce, perhaps sharply, the rate of growth of M-1 over the QI '78 to QI '79 period; M-2, on the other hand, is likely to be only marginally affected. Of course, after automatic transfers are implemented, smaller rates of growth of measured M-1 will have the same economic and policy significance as larger rates of growth previously. During the transition period, however, changes in M-1 will be difficult to interpret.

-12than the staff had previously projected.1

Consequently, the staff

believes that a further increase in deposit rate ceilings on longerterm certificates will be needed to maintain flows of small-denomination time deposits, and has assumed such an increase in the fourth quarter. Even with an increase in ceiling rates, growth in M-3 over the longerrun policy period may be around the lower end of its 7½ to 10 per cent range.

While growth in small-denomination time and savings deposits

at banks will also remain weak, M-2 expansion is expected to be near the mid-point of the Committee's longer-run range, reflecting sizable issuance of time deposits not subject to interest rate ceilings. The slower growth of deposits subject to rate ceilings, and the resultant increased reliance on managed liabilities and draw-downs of portfolio

liquidity by both banks and thrift institutions, will

be associated with mounting strains on their balance sheet positions. As the year progresses, therefore, the ability and willingness of these institutions to meet credit demands can be expected to decline substantially.

1/ The staff had assumed a 50 basis point increase on all time deposit ceiling rates.

-13Directive language (17)

Given below are alternatives for the operational

paragraphs of the directive.1/

The first formulation, like the

directive adopted at the last meeting, places main emphasis on nearterm rates of growth in monetary aggregates; it shows--in strikethrough form--the specifications adopted at the last meeting.

The

second formulation places main emphasis on money market conditions. In both formulations, variants are shown for particular phrases that are intended to be associated with the specifications discussed in the preceding section under alternatives A and B. "Monetary Aggregates" formulation The Committee seeks to encourage near-term rates of growth in M-1 and M-2 on a path believed to be reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph.

Specifically, at present, it expects

the annual growth rates over the [DEL: April-May]MAY-JUNE period to 4 to 8½] ____ TO ____ per cent for M-1 and be within ranges of[DEL: [DEL: 5½ to 9½]____ TO ____ per cent for M-2.

In the judgment of

the Committee such growth rates are likely to be associated with a weekly-average Federal funds rate (A) AT ABOUT THE CURRENT LEVEL. (B) slightly (OR SOMEWHAT) above the current level.

In a memorandum dated May 11 Chairman Miller proposed modified language for these operational paragraphs and for the preceding paragraphs dealing with the Committee's general policy stance and longer-run ranges for the aggregates.

-14If, giving approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period will deviate significantly from the midpoints of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of [DEL: 6¾ 7½] ____ to

TO ____ per cent.

In the conduct of day-to-day operations, account shall be taken of emerging financial market conditions, including the conditions in foreign exchange markets. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. "Money Market" Formulation At this time, the Committee seeks (A) to maintain about the prevailing money market conditions (or (B) to achieve slightly or somewhat firmer money market conditions) during the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at approximately the rates currently expected, which are believed to be on a path reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph.

Specifically, the Committee seeks (A) to

maintain the weekly-average Federal funds rate at about the current level (or (B) to increase the weekly-average Federal funds rate slightly or somewhat from the current level), so

-15long as M-1 and M-2 appear to be growing over the May-June period at annual rates within ranges of ____ to ____ per cent and ____ to ____ per cent, respectively.

If, giving approximately equal

weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2month period are approaching or moving beyond the limits of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the weeklyaverage Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of ____ to ____ per cent.

In the conduct

of day-to-day operations, account shall be taken of emerging financial market conditions, including the conditions in foreign exchange markets. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee.

Chart 3

RECENTLY ESTABLISHED M-3 GROWTH RANGES AND ACTUAL M-3

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

01'78-Q1'79

- Projection

10%

1530 1500

1470 --

1440 1410 SQ4'77-Q4'78

1380

7 /%

1440 1410 10o

1290

1380

1260

1230

-1410

1380 1290

1260

- 1440

1% O

1230

Q2'77-Q2'78

)

8% 1380

1290 >

1260 -

1230 -

1350

1320

1290

1260 1 23 0

1410

I 1977

I 1978

Chart 4

RECENTLY ESTABLISHED BANK CREDIT GROWTH RANGES AND ACTUAL BANK CREDIT

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10'

-- Projection

' 78-Q1 '79-

970

7,%

950 9

-Z

930

S-

- 910

- 890

S-I930

S-930

-Q4'77-Q4 4-

'78

-910

-890

10% -

.,T

0"--

7%7

930

o 910

- 890

S-

277-Q2 17878

1'72

1977

1978

870

Appendix I Projected Federal Funds Rate

Alt. A

1978

1979

Alt.

QII

7¼ to 7¾

7½ to 8

QIII

8½ to 9¼

8¾ to 9½

QIV

9 to 10

8¾ to 9¾

9 to 10

8¾ to 9¾

Appendix II

Implied Velocity Growth Rates V,

(GNP/MI)

1978

1979 V2

Alt. A

Alt. B

6.9

7.1

III

5.6

6.0

8.7

8.3

8.1

7.6

8.4

8.5

III

3.7

4.0

4.6

(GNP/M2 )

1978

1979

Appendix Table III-1 MONEY STOCK--M-1 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)1/ Ending

Ending Period 1975

1976

1977

1978

74IV

Base Period 751

7511

75111

75IV

761

7611

76111

761V

771

7711

77111

77IV

781

2.3

4.3

6.4

III

5.0

6.3

4.4

5.1

4.5

2.8

4.5

5.0

4.6

3.7

4.7

4.9

5.4

5.2

4.8

5.9

7.0

III

4.7

5.1

4.9

4.6

5.2

5.4

3.8

5.1

5.5

5.3

5.1

5.7

6.1

5.6

7.4

5.3

5.7

5.6

5.5

6.0

6.3

6.1

7.3

7.1

5.6

6.0

5.9

6.4

6.7

6.6

7.6

7.7

8.3

III

5.8

6.2

6.7

7.0

7.8

7.9

8.3

6.0

6.3

6.7

7.0

7.7

7.8

8.0

7.8

7.4

5.9

6.2

6.6

6.8

7.3

7.2

7.3

6.9

6.2

5.1

5.7

6.0

5.9

6.2

6.3

6.2

6.5

6.3

6.0

5.6

5.2

Alt. B

5.7

6.0

5.9

6.2

6.3

6.2

6.5

6.3

6.0

5.6

5.2

1979 I Alt.

Based on quarterly average data.

Appendix Table III-2 MONEY STOCK--M-2 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)1/ Base Period

Ending Period 1975

1976

1977

1978

74IV

7511

75IV

761

7611

76111

76IV

771

7711

77111

771V

6.4

8.3

10.2

III

8.8

10.1

8.3

9.0

8.9

9.5

9.3

8.9

11.0

9.1

9.7

9.5

9.4

10.7

III

9.1

9.5

9.4

9.3

10.1

9.6

10.1

10.0

10.1

10.9

10.8

11.1

13.2

9.8

10.2

10.3

11.0

10.9

11.1

12.3

11.3

9.7

10.1

10.7

10.6

10.7

11.3

10.3

9.4

III

9.8

10.1

10.2

10.6

11.0

10.3

9.8

10.3

9.7

10.0

9.9

10.3

10.2

10.5

9.8

9.3

9.2

8.2

9.4

9.6

9.9

9.8

9.7

9.8

9.1

8.6

8.3

7.4

6.6

** *

1979

751

6.9

9.7 *

* *

781

10.4 9.6

8.9

I Alt.

8.9

9.1

9.0

9.1

9.0

8.8

8.4

8.0

7.8

7.4

7.2

7.4

Alt.

8.9

9.1

9.0

9.1

9.0

8.8

8.3

8.0

7.8

7.4

7.2

7.4

Based on quarterly average data.

Appendix Table III-3 MONEY STOCK--M-3 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)1/ Base Period

Ending Period

1975

1976

1977

1978

74IV I

75IV

761

7611 -

76111 -~--

76IV -

771 -

7711

77111

771V

781

8.3

10.6

13.0

III

11.5

13.1

13.2

11.1

12.0

11.5

9.8

11.4

12.2

11.9

11.2

12.7

11.5

12.2

12.0

11.6

12.5

12.2

III

11.5

12.0

11.8

11.5

12.1

11.8

11.3

11.9

12.5

12.4

12.2

12.8

13.1

15.0

12.0

12.5

12,4

12.3

12.8

13.0

13.9

12.7

11.9

12.3

12.2

12.0

12.4

12.8

11.7

10.6

III

11.9

12.3

12.2

12.1

12.4

12.7

11.9

11.5

12.5

11.8

12.2

12.1

12.0

12.2

12.3

11.7

11.4

11.7

11.0

11.5

11.8

11.7

11.5

11.7

11.6

11.5

10.9

10.4

10.3

9.3

7.6

1979

75111

7511

751

****

* *

I Alt.

10.6

10.7

10.6

10.4

10.2

10.0

9.4

8.9

8.7

8.1

7.5

Alt.

10.5

10.6

10.5

10.3

10.1

10.0

9.3

8.8

8.6

8.0

7.4

7.3

Based on quarterly average data.

5/12/78

CHART I

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES

1976

1977

1978

1976

1977

1978

1976

1977

1978

CHART R

5/12/78

MONETARY AGGREGATES BANK CREDIT SEND OF

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 940

MONTH

RESERVES F

BILLIONS OF

WEEKLY AVERAGES

TOTAL

1976

1978

900

860

820

780

740

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC MAY 12, 1978

Table 1

MONETARY AGGREGATES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Period

Narrow

Broad (M2)

Total U.S. Govt. Deposits 1/

___(Ml)

MONTHLY

_Time

Total

otal

& Savings Deposits Other Than CD's Other Savins

CD's

Nondeposit Sources of Fund 2/

LEVELS-SBIL

1978-FEB. MAR. APR. MAY

339.1 340.1 345.5 (347.4)

616.6 820.2 827.9 (832.2)

7.5 7.9 8.3 8.1)

556.8 562.1 565.9 (571.6)

477.5 480.1 482.4 (484.8)

220.7 220.8 221.4 1221.2)

256.7 259.3 261.0 (263.6)

(

79.4 82.0 83.4 86,8)

06.9 67.2 65.5

S ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTbRLY 1977--3RD QTR. 4TH GTR.

9.0 6.2

10.1 7.0

9.9 14.5

10.8 7.6

10.9 1.3

10.8 13.3

3.2 64.0

1978--1ST

4.0

6.2

12.6

7.8

2.4

12.6

43.2

1977--3RD QTR. 4TH OTR.

8.1 7.2

9.9 8.0

10.3 13.0

11.2 8.5

7.3 5.4

14.4 11.4

4.5 44.9

1978-1ST OTR.

5.0

6.4

13.1

7.5

2.2

12.0

50.0

(

-1.1 3.5 19.1 6.6)

4.4 5.3 11.3 6.2)

(

13.7 11.4 8.1 12.1)

8.4 6.5 5.7 6.01

48.8 39.3 20.5 48.9)

(

12.9)

8.8)

(

10.11)

5.9)

(

35.1)

QTR.

QUARTERLY-AV

MONTHLY 1978-FEB. MAR. APR. MAY APR.-MAY WEEKLY

(

14.7 12.2 7.9 12.0)

(

1.1)

(

9.9)

LEVELS-SBIL

1978-APR.

MAY

NOTE: 1/ 2/

(

0.5 0.5 3.3 -1.1)

5 12 19 26

341.8 344.0 344.8 346.5

823.7 825.9 827.8 829.5

8.4 9.0 8.5 8.1

564.0 564.4 566.1 567.5

481.9 481.9 482.9 483.0

221.2 222.0 221.4 221.1

260.7 259.9 261.5 261.9

82.1 82.5 83.2 84.4

350.5

833.7

7.5

568.9

483.1

221.3

261.8

85.8

P - PRELIMINARY DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. INCLUDES BORROWINGS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN MENTS TO REPURCHASE, LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. (EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS),

67.5 66.3 61.4 67.0

SECURITIES SOLD UNDER FOREIGN BRANCHES

AGREE-

Table 1-A

TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXCEPT AS NOTED

Period

Total Time

Tand

Savings Deposits

Total

Savings

OUTSTANDING

1978

Time Deposits

Business (NSA)

Government

Total

(NSA)

Large

Small

Negotiable CD's

Denomina ion Denomination

521.9 525.9 531.9 540.0 544.9 550.5 556.8 562.1 565.9

217.0 218.8 219.5 219.4 219.5 220.6 220.7 220.8 221.4

201.2

10.5

203.2 204.1 204.5 204.7 205.8 206.0 206.2 206.9

10.6 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.2 10.1

5.3 5.1 4.9

304.9 312.3 320.6 325.4

142.0 143.6 148.1 157.6 162.1

329.9

165.9

307.1

10.1

336.1 341.4

10.1

344.5

175.6 177.4

171.9

25.4

162.9 163.6 164.2 163.0 163.3 164.0 164.2 165.7 167.1

63.2 63.8 66.4 70.9 74.0 76.3 79.4 82.0 83.4

BILLIONS)

YEAR

55.2

17.6

2.1

-1.9

37.6

1977--1 II III IV

14.8 10.4 13.1 16.9

10.5 4.6 3.9 2.9

1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2

1.8 -0.2 -1.2 -0.8

4.5 5.7 9.2 14.0

1978-1

17.6

1.2

-0.5

0.1

-0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.2

197

12,

(S BILLIONS)

197T*-AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 197--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR.

CHANGES ($

MAY

Memo: Large

Indvidual Nonrofit Nonprofit 3

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC

12.2

QUARTERLY AVERAGEs

16.4

5.9 13.5

3.4 6.6 3.3 0.4

15.2

1.1

1.0 -0.7

MONTHLY AVERAGES 1977--EPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1978--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR.

4.0 6.0 8.1 4.9 5.6 6.3 5.3 3.8

NOTEs COLUMNS 1i) 12) AND (9) ON AGGREGATES. FIGURES IN COLUMNS (11, DERIVED FROM DATA REPORTED BY SMALL GOVERNMENTAL UNITS-COLUMNS (4) AND WEDNESDAY BY LARGE COMERCIAL BANKS SNIPS.

1.8 0.7 -0.1 0.1 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.6

-0.1

0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.1

0.0 0.0

-0.1

2.2 5.2 8.3 4.8 4.5 6.2 5.3 3.1

1.6 4.5 9.5 4.5 3.8 6.0 3.7 1.8

0.7 0.6 -1.2 0.3 0.7 0.2 1.5 1.4

THIS TABLE CORRESPOND TO COLUMNS (4,. (6), AND (1), RESPECTIVELY, ON TABLE 1-MONETARY (2), AND (61 REFLECT DAILY DATA REPORTED BY MEMBER BANKS, WITH ESTIMATES FOR NONMEMBER BANKS MEMBER BANKS, BENCHMARKED TO NONMEMBER CALL REPORT FIGURES. SAVINGS DEPOSITS OF BUSINESS AND (5--- AND LARGE DENOMINATION TIME DEPOSITS -- COLUN (7)--REFLECT BREAKDOMNS REPORTED EACH BLOWN UP TO REPRESENT DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS ON THE BASIS OF CALL REPORT RELATION-

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 2

BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES

Period

Total Reserves

Nonborrowed Reserves

MAY

12,

1978

REQUIRED RESERVES

Monetary Base

Total Required

Private Demand

Total Time Deposits

Gov't. and Interbank

MONTHLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS

36,933

1978-FEB. MAR. APR. MAY PERCENT

36,667 36,979

137,349)

36,528 36,339 36,423 135,7901

130,157 130,484 131,363 (132,786)

36,692 36,468 36,803 (37.091)

13,030 13,240 13,293 113,409)

21,795 21,420 21,598 (21,872)

1,867

1l808 1,912 1 1,810)

ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1977-3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

8.0 7.1

3.9 7.8

9.2 9.6

7.3 7.

10.1 5.2

3.8 13.5

1978-1ST QTR.

5.8

8.6

7.8

5.7

-1.1

12.8

1977--3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

7.3 6.1

1.7 3.5

8.6 9.1

6.8 6.3

8.1 6.1

5.2 9.1

1978-1ST

8.5

9.6

8.3

3.6

12.8

QUARTERLY-AV

QTR.

14.5

MONTHLY 1978-FEB. MAR. APR. MAY APR.-MAY WEEKLY

(

11.2)

13.7 -6.2 2.8 -20.9) -9.1)

6.9 3.0 8.1 13.0)

11.8 -7.3 11.0 9.4)

(

15.21

(

12.3 19.3 4.b 10.51

10.6)

10.2)

(

12.7)

(

7.7)

10.6 -20.6

10.0

LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1978-APR.

MAY

NOTEt

(

10.9 -8.6 10.2 12.0)

131,525

36,608 369639 37,076 36,742

21,308 21,522 21,625 21,782

13,321 13,300 13,294 13,258

1,978 1,816 2.157 1,703

132,353 132.361

36,964 37.044

21,723 21.852

13,304 13.342

1,937 1.849

130,977 130,496 131,776

36,777

36,611 36.456 37,143 35,968

37,329 37,430

35,664 35,742

5 12 19 26

36,915 36,627 37,381

3 10

a RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

a ASSOCIATED WITH

CHANGES

RESERVE

_______________

REQUIREMENT

RATIO.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MAY 12, 1978

TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ million, not seasonally adjusted)

Change 2/

1 year

1 -

789 579 797 3,284 3,025 2,833

-490 7,232 1,280 -468 863 4,361 1,164 2,126 886 186

1977--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr.

5 -

1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891 1,433

1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227 10,035

-1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607 -2,892

1,680 959 1,021 1,001

2,738 3,666 4,273 -643

-4,771 4,175 -2,331 34

-555

-1,133

----736 4,474

2,996 3,568

-71 -2,717 2,233

-7,149 4,141 1,874

758

167 129 196 1,070 642 553

1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187 4,660

325 171 96 166

165 152 128 108

500 434 1,510 1,048

-2,655

345

1,123

459

247

2,175

1977--Nov. Dec.

-736 2,798

628

166

108

1,001

1978--Jan.

100

556

Mar.

-627 -2.695 668

Apr.

1,670

1978--Qtr. I

Feb.

1978--Mar.

Apr.

May

1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 3 10 17p 24 31

LEVEL--May 10 (in billions) 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/

1 year

-386

147

1,618

145

671

-54

-1,024 -

-----

--- --

448 --

275 --

365

594

100

235

191

145

671

14.3

29.9

519

10.1

7.9

62.2

145

707

--- --- --- Total 5/

2,341

-862 351 -44

1.5

- -

4.0

1.6

-1,026

1,016 79 1,004 -108 1,499 -563

-7,652 636 1,693 2,671

2,284 238

7.9

-1,474 -4,050 612 3,386 2,615

S 101

Ovr

177

191

5 - 10

400 1,665 824 469 792

235

248 -

592

100

238

42.2

Hoing

Total

Net RP's

Total

539

Net Change Outright

Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/

Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/

Treasury Bills Net

-415

112.3

Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MAY 12, 1978

TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars)

U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions BillsCoupon BillsIssues

Underwriting Syndicate Positions Corporate Bonds

Muniipal Bonds

cess**

Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit**

e s

s Reserves

Total

easonal Seasonal

8 New York rk38 8

ther 38 Others

1977--High Low

7,234 1,729

3,017 -1,445

513 -111

1,861 20

131 8

-9,151 -4,234

1978--High Low

5,625 *1,249

2,043 *-351

370 120

592 172

59 25

-8,224 -3,993

-14,602

1977--Apr. May June

4,567 3,072 4,752

696 123 206

192 213 154

73 206 262

14 30 54

-6,586 -5,693 -5,341

-11,409 -10,175 -10,332

July Aug. Sept.

3,899 2,533 4,812

-309 -933 -313

275 200 209

323 1,084 626

60 L02 L12

-6,391 -5,581 -7,333

-11,012 -11,452 -11,120

Oct. Nov. Dec.

4,142 3,617 4,257

-360 610 804

210 251 193

1,305 863 570

L12 83 55

-6,480 -6,971 -7,403

-11,511 -11,825 -11,350

1978--Jan. Feb. Mar.

4,127 3,418 2,713

327 1,492 740

268 243 200

484 406 328

32 49 47

-6,047 -4,980 -6,778

-12,299 -12,603 -11,060

Apr.

*3,183

*-183

177p

55 7

-6,220p

-12,997p

22 29

2,176 2,807 2,923 2,705 2,158

1,577 1,290 891 450 390

59 47 40 47 51

-4,836 -6,932 -7,537 -7,525 -5,510

-11,655 -11,783 -11,771 -11,473

5 12 19 26

4,398 4,083 *3,767 *1,325

45 37 36 49p

-6,383 -8,224 -6,336 -5,356

-10,673 -14,602 -13,831 -12,667

*1,624 *1,249

60p 72p

- ,81 p 5 056 - , p

1978--Mar.

Apr.

May

1 8 15

-310 *-351 *33 *-287

*189

5 50p

281 185p

365p 290p

1,665p 1,688p

-13,975 - 8,206

- 8,533

- 9,237

-12, 0p 2 24 9 -1 , p

17 24 31

NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * **

Strictly confidential. Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MAY 12, 1978

TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent)

Short-Term Treasury CD's New Comm. Federal Bills Issue- Paper Funds NYC 90-19 Da Fund90-Day 1-Year 9

Bank Pre Prime Rate

U.S. Govt.-Constant Maturity Yields 3-yr

7-yr

20-yr

Long-Ter Corp-Aaa i1 Utility ond New Recentl Bond Issue Offere Buyer

Home Mortgages Pi Secondary Mrket Prim. F GNMA Cony. Auc. ec.

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

(13)

(14)

(15)

1977--High Low

6.65 4.47

6.27 4.41

6.62 4.67

6.70 4.50

6.66 4.63

7.75 6.25

7.39 5.83

7.70 6.59

7.99 7.26

8.36 7.90

8.48 7.95

5.93 5.45

9.00 8.65

8.98 8.46

8.39 7.56

1978--High Low

7.32 6.58

6.50 6.16

7.21 6.55

7.13 6.65

6.96 6.68

8.21 7.75

8.07 7.40

8.24 7.72

8.43 8.01

8.93 8.61

8.93 8.48

5.99 5.58

9.48 8.98

9.52 9.13

8.85 8.43

1977--Apr. May June

4.73 5.35 5.39

4.54 4.96 5.02

5.10 5.43 5.41

4.67 5.16 5.35

4.75 5.26 5.42

6.25 6.41 6.75

6.32 6.55 6.39

7.11 7.26 7.05

7.67 7.74 7.64

8.26 8.33 8.08

8.22 8.31 8.12

5.73 5.75 5.62

8.75 8.83 8.86

8.67 8.74 8.75

7.96 8.04 7.95

July Aug. Sept.

5.42 5.90 6.14

5.19 5.49 5.81

5.57 5.97 6.13

5.28 5.78 6.01

5.38 5.75 6.09

6.75 6.83 7.13

6.51 6.79 6.84

7.12 7.24 7.21

7.60 7.64 7.57

8.15 8.04 8.07

8.12 8.05 8.07

5.63 5.62 5.51

8.95 8.94 8.90

8.72 8.76 8.74

7.96 8.03 8.02

Oct. Nov. Dec.

6.47 6.51 6.56

6.16 6.10 6.07

6.52 6.52 6.52

6.53 6.56 6.65

6.51 6.54 6.61

7.52 7.75 7.75

7.19 7.22 7.30

7.44 7.46 7.59

7.71 7.76 7.87

8.23 8.28 8.34

8.22 8.25 8.38

5.64 5.49 5.57

8.92 8.92 8.96

8.82 8.86 8.94

8.16 8.19 8.27

1978--Jan. Feb. Mar.

6.70 6.78 6.79

6.44 6.45 6.29

6.80 6.86 6.82

6.82 6.77 6.73

6.75 6.76 6.75

7.93 8.00 8.00

7.61 7.67 7.70

7.86 7.94 7.95

8.14 8.22 8.21

8.68 8.69 8.71

8.60 8.67 8.67

5.71 5.62 5.61

9.02 9.15 9.20

9.17 9.31 9.35

8.56 8.64 8.60

6.89

6.29

6.96

6.84

6.82

8.00

7.85

8.06

8.32

8.90

8.85

5,80

9.36

9.44

8.71

1978--Mar.

1 8 15 22 29

6.80 6.76 6.77 6.77 6.82

6.41 6.33 6.27 6.22 6.27

6.85 6.83 6.81 6.76 6.84

6.75 6.75 6.73 6.70 6.70

6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.76

8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00

7.71 7.69 7.64 7.65 7.79

7.95 7.94 7.91 7.90 8.02

8.21 8.21 8.17 8.17 8.27

-8.70 -8.61 8.83

8.70 8.65 8.64 8.64 8.75

5.63 5.58 5.58 5.59 5.69

9.15 9.15 9.23 9.23 9.25

-9.36 -9.33 --

8.61 8.63 8.55 8.53 8.68

Apr.

5 12 19 26

6.86 6.74 6.78 7.00

6.39 6.35 6.20 6.22

6.94 6.95 6.88 6.99

6.75 6.83 6.83 6.95

6.76 6.80 6.79 6.86

8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00

7.82 7.81 7.83 7.95

8.04 8.04 8.04 8.13

8.31 8.33 8.30 8.36

8.88 8.88 8.93 8.92

8.82 8.84 8.84 8.91

5.76 5.74 5.79 5.89

9.28 9.33 9.38 9.43

9.44 -9.44 --

8.70 8,67 8.67 8.81

May

3 10 17 24 31

7.27 7.32

6.38 6.39

7.16 7.21

7.05 7.13

6.91 6.96

8.00 8.21

7.99 8.07p

8.16 8.24p

8.40 8.43p

-8.87p

8.90 8.93p

5.98 5.99

9.48 n.a.

9.52 --

8.80 8.85

Daily--May

4 11

7.27 7.36p

6.33 6.32

7.13 7.26

--- 6.94 7.02

8.00 8.25

7.97 8.08p

8.14 8.24p

8.39 8.41p

Apr.

NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1, 2, 3, 5, and 6 are statement week averages of daily data. Data in column 4 are 1-day Wednesday quotes, For columns 7 through 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 11 and 12 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 13 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 14 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 15 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling.

MAY

12,

1978

1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES Appendix Table

Credit

Period Total

Nonborrowed

Money Stock Measures

Bank Reservesd

Monetary Base

Total Loans and Invest-

9.6 10.3 11.7

10.4 9.8 11.4

10.0 10.0 11.9

ments

(PER CENT ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH)

ANNUALLY ANNUALLY:

1975 1976 1977

-0.3 1.0 5.2

3.2 1.2 2.7

5.9 7.0 6.3

3.9 8.0 10.9

4.4 5.7 7.8

b.3 10.9 9.8

11.0 12.8 11.7

6.5 7.1 10.0

2/ SEMI-ANNUALLYi 2ND HALF

1976

3.0

3.2

6.6

6.9

5.5

10.b

12.7

7.8

10.8

9.8

9.9

1ST HALF 2ND HALF

1977 1977

3.5 6.8

2.9 2.6

7.3 9.0

11.6 9.7

7.6 7.7

10.1 9.0

11.3 11.4

9.3 10.2

10.8 12.0

10.2 12.1

10.7 12.4

2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH OTR.

1977 1977 1977

3.3 8.0 7.1

1.4 3.9 7.8

7.9 9.2 9.6

12.6 8.6 8.3

1.5 9.0 6.2

8.5 10.1 7.0

9.9 12.7 9.1

8.4 9.6 11.2

9.8 12.3 11.6

8.5 12.9 11.7

9.2 12.5 13,0

1ST QTR.

1976

5.8

8.6

7.6

10.5

4.0

6.2

6.9

9.3

8.8

9.5

9.3

1977 1977 1977

2.9 7.3 6.1

1.8 1.7 3.5

7.3 8.8 9.1

13.3 9.6 9.3

6.1 b.1 7.2

9.0 9.9 8.0

10.2 11.9 10.6

8.2 9.5 10.7

9.6 11.6 12.1

9.0 11.4 12.5

9.9 11.4 13.1

1ST QTR. 1978

8.5

14.5

9.6

8.5

5.0

6.4

7.4

10.0

9.5

10.1

10.6

1977--APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

7.9 1.3 0.6 15.5 7.8 0.5 9.8 5.3 5.9

9.0 -3.3 -1.4 13.5 -17.4 15.7 -13.4 20.9 16.1

10.2 6.4 7.1 11.1 8.4 8.0 10.0 8.1 10.4

15.7 12.0 9.6 9.5 12.3 3.8 13.5 11.8 -0.7

13.9 1.5 7.1 11.8 6.2 8.7 10.9 0.4 7.2

10.8 5.5 9.1 13.5 7.7 9.0 9.7 5.4 5.7

11.0 8.1 10.3 14.0 11.7 12.2 11.8 7.6 7.6

9.1 7.0 8.9 11.9 7.5 9.2 12.5 11.2 9.6

9.9 8.9 10.2 12.9 11.5 12.2 13.3 11.3 9.8

9.4 7.3 8.6 13.1 12.6 12.6 13.7 11.4 9.6

10.2 8.0 9.1 13.0 12.1 12.1 14.4 13.0 11.1

1978--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR.P

15.2 10.9 -8.6 10.2

18.3 13.7 -6.2 2.8

13.5 6.9 3.0 8.1

12.1 10.1 9.1 21.5

9.6 -1.1 3.5 19.1

8.9 4.4 5.3 11.

8.7 5.5 6.2 9aL.9

11.3 8.2 8.3

10.2 7.7 6.2 10. 4

11.4 8.8 6.0

11.8 8.4 7.5 o 7

QUARTERLYI

QUARTERLY-AV 2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH QTR.

MONTHLY

1/ 2/ P -

BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. PRELIMINARY

RESERVE

REQUIREMENTS.

MAY

Appendix Table 1-B

12,

1978

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Bank Reserves 1V Period

Total

Non-borrowed

lnk Credit

Monetary Base

Money Steek Measures

Total

Loans and

Invest.

ments

IIIIIII

a.a.-

ANNUALLY: 33,969 34,441 36,143

33,839 34,388 35,573

110,345 118,062 127,973

725.5 788.2 870.0

294.5 312.6 336.7

664.1 739.6 807.6

1091.8 1235.6 1374.1

745.4 802.3 881.6

1173.2 1298.3 1448.1

1307.3 1436.7 1600.6

1350.3 14 4.0 1662.5

34,766 34, 05 34,821

34,693 34,599 34,559

120,807 121,448 122,163

819.7 827.9 834.5

322.0 322.4 324.3

764.9 768.4 774.2

1282.2 1290.9 1302.0

826.5 831.3 837.5

1343.8 1353.8 1365.3

1486.9 1495.9 1506.6

1539.4 1549.7 1561.4

JULY AUG. SEPT.

35,271 35,501 35,517

34,948 34,440 34,892

123,294 124,155 124,984

841.1 849.7 852.4

327.5 329.2 331.6

782.9 787.9 793.8

1317.2 1330.0 1343.5

845.8 851.1 657.6

1380.0 1393.2 1407.4

1523.0 1539.0 1555.1

1578.3 1594.2 1610.3

OCT. NOV. DEC.

35,808 35,965 36,143

34,503 35,103 35,573

126,025 126,87 127,973

862.0 870.5 870.0

334.6 334.7 336.7

800.2 803.8 807.6

1356.7 1365.5 1374.1

866.5 674.6 881.6

1423.0 1436.4 1448.1

1572.9 1587.9 1600.6

1629.6 1647.3 1662.5

1978--JAN. FEB. MAR.

36,600 36*933 36,667

36,116 36,528 36,339

129,409 130,157 130,484

878.8 886.2 893.3

339.4 339.1 340.1

813.6 816.6 820.2

1384.1 1390.5 1397.7

689.9 896.0 902.2

1460.4 1469.8 1479.8

1615.8 1627.6 1638.5

1678.8 1690.5 1701.1

36,979

36,423

131,363

909.3

345.5

827.9

1409.2

911.3

1492.6

1652.1

1714.8

8 15 22 29

369510 36,611 36,807 36,689

36,114 36,363 36,527 36,303

129.747 130,258 130,845 131,007

339.3 33b.5 340.7 341.3

818.7 818.2 821.6 821.9

900.5 900.3 903.6 904.2

5 12 19 26P

36,915 36,627 37,381 36,777

36,611 36,456 37,143 35,908

130,977 130,496 131,776 131,525

341.8 344.0 344.8 346.5

823.7 825.9 627.8 829.5

905.6 908.4 910.9 913.9

37,329

35,664

132,353

350.5

833.7

919.4

1975 1976 1977

MONTHLY: 1977--APR. MAY JUNE

APR.P

MEEKLY1

1978-MAR.

APR.

MAY

I *a aI * I I WEEKLY DATA MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. MEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. M39 M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. DATA SHOWN IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.

NOTES:

S I ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR

MAY

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

12,

1978

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES

(Per cent annual rates of growth)

2/ ANNUALLY: 1975 1976 1977

15.0 11.2

1 7.5 2 5.0 I11.1

7.8 7.4 11.4

-6.4 -23.4 12.8

15.3 15.5 14.2

19.5 18.8 19.4

33.8 5.5 10.9

11.7

-0.7 13.9 24.6

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF 1976

4.7

9.3

14.9

1 9.8

10.6

-21.7

15.5

18.1

-4.6

13.0

1ST HALF 1977 2ND HALF 1977

7.2 7.0

10.4 11.8

11.9 9.9

II5.3 6.4

8.9 13.2

0.6 24.9

12.9 14.5

16.6 20.6

2.1 19.6

25.6 21.2

2ND QTR. 1977 3RD QTR. 1977 4TH 0TR. 1977

8.9 9.9 14.5

9.2 10.8 7.6

15.5 0.9 1.3

12.5 10.8 13.3

7.1 3.2 64.0

11.6 16.2 11.6

15.7 21.7 18.8

-14.4 31.0 19.4

29.8 2.9 48.6

1ST QTR. 1978 QUARTERLY-AV:

12.6

7.8

2.4

12.6

43.2

6.9

17.9

27.4

4.5

2ND OTR. 1977 3RD QTR. 1977 4TH TQR. 1977

8.3 10.3 13.0

9.7 11.2 8.5

B.8

-1.9 4.5 44.9

11.6 14.6 13.9

14.9

5.4

10.5 14.6 11.4

20.0

-1.2 11.7 26.7

39.3 11.2 30.4

1ST QTR.

13.1

7.5

k.2

12.0

50.0

8.0

18.2

25.6

22.9

1977-APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

6.0 10.5 10.1 11.9 8.3 9.2 13.7 18.3 10.9

8.5 8.4 10.5 14.9 8.4 8.9 8.8 9.3 4.6

3.9 5.7 143.0 b.2 6.3 14 3.0 3.8 3.5 3.5

6.3 10.9 20.1 22.8 1.5 7.9 13.3 16.0 8.2

-11.6 25.3 7.6 -9.5 7.6 11.4 48.9 61.3 52.5

10.9 11.6 12.0 14.3 17.1 16.6 14.0 11.0 9.3

14.7

1.7 -24.1 -21.1 19.7 44.0 27.2 29.9 19.4 8.0

35.3

14.5 17.2 19.8 19.5 24.7 21.5 15.8 18.2

1978--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR.P

12.3 13.7 11.4 8.1

8.4 6.5 5.7

b.O 0.5 0.5 3.3

10.5 14.7 12.2 7.9

37.3 48.8 39.3 20.5

7.9 6.0 6.8 7.0

17.9 15.2 20.0 14.7

41.2 30.6 9.0 4.4

21.3 -3.6 -3.8 1.9

QUARTERLY:

1978

7.3

20.1

MONTHLY:

8.4

Cn *. .. i S n *1/ GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 2/ BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. P - PRELIMINARY.

. -

MONTH

a -

AND ENO

29.7 22.3 10.9 -2.2 0.0 34.8 54.9 50.5

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

MAY

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Depoits

Currency Demand

Period

Other Than CD's Savings Other

Deposits ___Total

Mutual Savings Bank

Credit Union

& S&L Shares!j

Shares Bonds 1Y

Savings

ShortSTerm U.S. Gov't Sec ye

Other Private Short-

Non Non Deposit

Total Total Gov't

term Ass

Funds

Demand Depo

Y/ 2

12, 1978

] 1S

ANNUALLY:

73.7

450.9 489.7 544.9

369.6

160.5

209.1

66.9

43.0

225.1 251.4

394.8 456.9

67.2

201.9 219.5

81.3 62.7 74.0

33.0

427.0

39.1

88.5

220.8 231.9 248.2

519.7

46.8

71.9 76.6

66.6 75.8

47.3 61.9

83.1 83.8 84.2

238.9 238.6 240.1

504.5 508.9 513.2

442.9 446.0

212.0 213.0 213.0

230.9 233.0 236.9

61.6 62.9 63.3

476.0

41.3 41.8 42.4

73.4 73.8

69.7

480.6 485.4

52.5 53.8

JULY AUG. SEPT.

85.1 85.5 86.3

242.3 243.7 245.3

518.3

455.5 458.7

525.9

462.1

214.1 217,0 218.8

241.4 241.7 243.3

62.8 63.2 63.8

491.2 498.2 505.1

43.1

521.9

OCT. NOV. DEC.

87.1

247.5 247.0 248.2

531.9

465.5 469.1 470.9

219.5 219.4 219.5

246.0

66.4 70.9 74.0

511.0 515.7 519.7

45.5 46.1

550.5

474.2 477.5 480.1

220.6 220.7 220.8

76.3

259.3

79.4 82.0

523.1 525.7 528.7

47.5

556.8 562.1

253.6 256.7

90.6

250.1 249.1 249.5

91.2

254.3

565.9

482.4

221.4

261.0

83.4

531.8

8 15 22 29

90.3 90.5 90.9 91.0

249.1 248.0 249.8 250.3

561.2 561.8 562.9 562.8

479.3 479.6

220.9 220.8 220.8 220.8

258.4 258.8 260.1 259.7

5 12 19 26P

90.9 90.8 91.1 91.4

250.9 253.2 253.7 255.1

564.0 564.4 566.1 567.5

481.9 481.9 482.9 483.0

221.2 222.0 221.4 221.1

91.8

258.7

568.9

483.1

221.3

1975 1976 1977

80.7

470.9

33.8 51.1 61.4

8.3 11.2 11.4

52.3 53.8 53.2

10.8 10.6 10.1

MONTHLY: 1977--APR. MAY JUNE

87.7 88.5 b9.3 90.0

1978--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR.P

540.0 544.9

449.9

74.2

68.3 67.1

74.7 75.1 75.4

68.2 70.7 72.3

55.3 55.2 55.2

53.6 55.9 57.5

11.8 10.2 10.7

75.8

74.1

76.2 76.6

75.3

56.8 59.4 61.9

58.4 60.1 61.4

10.3 6.7 11,4

77.0 77.4 77.8

78.4 80.4 81.0

63.0

48.1 48.9

62.6

66.0 66.9 67.2

9.7 7.5 7.9

49.5

78.2

81.3

62.7

65.5

8.3

81.8 82.2 82.0 82.3

68.7 68.9 65.0 66.4

7.3 7.0 9.4 7.6

260.7 259.9 261.5 261.9

82.1 82.5 83.2 84.4

67.5 66.3 61.8 67.0

8.4 9.0 8.5 8.1

261.8

85.8

249.7

251.4

43.8

44.7

46.8

75.8

54.8

62.8

WEEKLY: 1978-MAR.

APR.

MAY

480.9 480.6

7.5 -

ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. SECURITY RP'S AND INCLUDES PRIVATE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS' HOLDINGS OF COMMERCIAL PAPER, BANKERS ACCEPTANCES, MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUND SHARES. 3/ BORROWINGS BY BANKS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SECURITIES SOLD UNDER AGREEMENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES (EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS), LOANS SOLO TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. 4/ P - PRELIMINARY 1/ 2/

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1978, May 15). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19780516

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19780516,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1978},
  month = {May},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19780516},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}