bluebooks · October 16, 1978

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

October 13, 1978

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

October 13, 1978

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1)

M-1 growth surged to a 14.1 per cent annual rate in

September, but appears to be slowing in October on the basis of data for the early part of the month.

Over September and October M-1 is

now projected to rise at about a 9 per cent rate, at the upper end of the FOMC's range.

M-2 appears to be increasing at about a 10 per cent

annual rate in the September-October period, just below the upper end of the FOMC's range.

Both savings and small time deposits grew sur-

prisingly rapidly at banks in September, and growth in total deposits at thrift institutions accelerated further to about a 15-1/2 per cent annual rate.

Sales of the new money market certificates by banks and

thrift institutions remained large last month, in total matching the August pace. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over September-October Period Ranges M-1

5 to 9

M-2

6-1/2 to 10-1/2

Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

(2)

8-1/4 to 8-3/4

Latest Estimates 8.9 10.0 Avg. for statement week ending Sept. 20 8.36 27 8.62 Oct. 4 8.85 11 8.71

Following the September FOMC meeting, incoming data

suggested that M-1 growth would be around the upper end, and M-2 growth

-2in the upper half, of their respective short-run ranges. Management responded by raising its 8-3/4 per cent,

The Account

Federal funds rate objective to

the upper end of the Committee's range.

The discount

rate was raised 1/4 point to 8 per cent on September 22 and was again raised to 8-1/2 per cent after the close of business Friday, October 13. Member bank borrowing has averaged from $1-1/4 to $1-1/2 billion during the past three statement weeks. (3)

Prior to the latest discount rate increase, most short-

term interest rates had increased another 20 to 50 basis points from the September FOMC meeting, as the market reacted to the further increases in the Federal funds rate and to the continued strength in published monetary aggregate data. however,

The 3-month Treasury bill rate,

dropped back sharply to around 7-3/4 per cent--below its

level

at the time of the September meeting--as foreign demand for bills were relatively strong and the Treasury continued to emphasize 6-month bills in the regular weekly refundings.

In after-hours trading on Friday,

following the latest discount rate action, Treasury bill rates rose 10 to 15 basis points. (4)

Yields on long-term Treasury and corporate securities

also moved higher over the inter-meeting period--generally by 20 to 30 basis points as of the close of business on Friday--as interest rate expectations appeared to shift in response not only to the further rise in short rates, but also to the persistence of rapid inflation and to signs that economic activity might be stronger over coming months than some had anticipated.

These recent increases left long-term Treasury

and corporate yields somewhat below their highs for the current expansion reached in mid-July, even though the funds rate had risen 100 basis points since that time.

In contrast to yields on other long-

term bonds, yields on municipal issues remained essentially unchanged during recent weeks, owing in part to a sharp decline in advance refundings by State and local units. (5)

Growth in commercial bank credit picked up somewhat in

September, as investments and security loans rose after declining in August.

Real estate and business loans expanded at just below the

average rates observed since late spring, and the bank prime rate rose

to 10 per cent.

Average rates charged by S&Ls on new home loan

commitments also have edged up of late, despite enlarged deposits flows and reduced borrowing from Home Loan Banks, as the cost of obtaining funds through the 6-month money market certificate has risen further. Mortgage credit demands apparently remain strong, and loan takedowns and commitments rose at S&Ls in August. (6)

The table on the next page shows percentage annual rates

of change in related monetary and financial flows over various time periods.

-4-

1976 & 1977 Average

Past Twelve Months Sept. '78 over Sept. '77

Past Six Months Sept. '78 over Mar. '78

Past Three Months Sept. '78 over June '78

Nonborrowed reserves

2.5

6.4

4.3

5.3

11.3

Total reserves

3.2

7.5

8.2

4.8

8.4

Monetary Base

7.7

9.4

9.6

8.6

12.7

6.9

8.4

10.5

9.2

14.1

10.4

8.5

9.7

10.4

12.5

12.3

9.4

10.2

11.7

13.7

M-4 (M-2 plus CD's)

8.6

10.7

10.1

10.0

13.7

M-5 (M-3 plus CD's)

11.1

10.7

10.5

11.4

14.3

Month-end basis

9.8

11.3

12.3

10.7

9.9

Monthly average

9.5

11.1

10.8

9.7

-0.4

2.0

1.0

0.5

1.8

0.2

0.4

0.3

Past Months Sept. '78 over Aug. '78

Concepts of Money M-1 (Currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M-2 (M-1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M-3

(M-2 plus deposits at thrift institutions)

Bank Credit Loans and investments of all commercial banks 2/

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or Wednesday statement date figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments (7) Alternative longer-run growth ranges for the monetary aggregates over the one-year QIII '78 to QIII '79 period are shown below for Committee consideration.

M-1 ranges shown in the top line

reflect staff estimates of the expected shift from demand deposits to savings deposits over the year ahead as a result of the introduction of the automatic transfer service (ATS) on November 1, while M-1 ranges that abstract from the estimated impact of ATS are shown in parentheses in the second line.

The upper limits of the ranges on the top line are

noticeably lower than those on the second line because the staff believes that some significant shift from demand to savings deposits as a result of ATS will almost assuredly occur, as explained in paragraph 8; the ranges of the top line are relatively wide to allow for the uncertain size of this shift.

Alternative B is based on the same growth

rate range for M-1 as adopted by the Committee in July for the QII '78 to QII '79 period, while alternatives A and C encompass, respectively, more and less expansion of M-1.

For reasons to be discussed later, the

M-2 and M-3 ranges in nearly all cases have been raised relative to current ranges. Alt. A M-1

(M-1, as if no ATS) M-2 M-3 Bank Credit

to 6

(5 to 7½) 7½ to 10

Alt.

Alt. C

Current Ranges

-½ to 5

-1½ to 4

(4 to 6½)

(3 to 5½)

(4 to

6½ to 9

7 to 9½

9 to 11½

8½ to 11

8 to 10½

7½ to 10

9 to 12

8½ to 11

8 to 11

8½ to 11½

6 to 8½

5 to 7½

4 to 6½

Addendum: M-l+ 1/ 1/

6½)

M-1+ is defined as M-1 plus savings deposits at commercial banks, NOW accounts at thrifts, credit union share drafts, and demand deposits at MSBs. See appendix V of the September Bluebook.

-6-

(8) Over the QIII '78-QIII '79 policy period, the staff projects that ATS would reduce M-1 growth by between 1½ and 4½ percentage points.

The upper end of this range assumes that some-

thing less than 20 per cent of the nearly $95 billion of eligible demand deposits shift to savings deposits in the first year of ATS, while the lower end assumes something less than 10 per cent shifts.

While

uncertainties are, of course, vast, the upper end of the range is comparable to first year experience with NOW accounts in the four New England states that were permitted to offer such accounts in early

1976.

Transfers under present circumstances may be slower because

of the absence of competition from thrifts, which was present in New England.

However, it would appear that bank pricing of the ATS

will make such service quite attractive for large deposit holders, who account for a major share of eligible deposits. (9) Given the degree of uncertainty regarding the size of the distortion in M-1 produced by automatic transfers, the staff also proposes that the Committee consider the desirability of supplementing, at least for a transition period, the other monetary measures with the aggregate "M-l+", which will not be affected by shifts between demand and savings deposits at banks and should provide useful collateral evidence about the strength of the

1/ transactions demand for money.-

This aggregate--defined as M-1

plus savings deposits at commercial banks, NOW accounts at thrifts, credit union share drafts, and demand deposits at MSB's--was discussed in appendix V of the September Bluebook.

The addendum to the table

1/ It would, of course, be affected by shifts from deposits at savings institutions to commercial bank ATS accounts. Such shifts should be relatively modest. We have assumed a shift of $2 billion, which adds .4 of a percentage point to growth in M-1+ over the QIII '78-QIII '79 period.

in paragraph (7) shows M-1+ ranges thought to be consistent with the

other aggregates. (10)

The demand for transactions balances is expected to

remain quite strong over the new QIII '78 to QIII '79 policy period,

with nominal GNP projected to rise at almost an 11 per cent annual rate. Thus, a further rise in the Federal funds rate appears needed under alternatives B and C if growth in the aggregates is to be held within their ranges.

Even under alternative A, some further increase in

the funds rate might well be required.

Staff projections of the funds

rate for each alternative are shown in appendix I. (11)

Under alternative B, we would expect the Federal funds

rate to level off in a 9 to 10¼ per cent range by early next year if M-1 growth over the QIII '78-QIII '79 period is to be at around the upper end of a 4 to 6½ per cent range, abstracting from the effects of ATS.1/ This represents an upward adjustment in the level of interest rates forecast by the staff.

The interest rate forecast might have

been expected to decline because alternative B in effect forgives the "overshoot" in M-1 growth during the third quarter and, hence, does not imply as low a rate of monetary growth over the next few quarters as it did earlier. However, our previous interest rate forecast assumed a fairly significant downward shift in M-1 demand relative to income.

There has been no evidence of such a shift in recent quarters,

and without the restraint of even higher interest rates than earlier projected it appears that growth in M-1 (or M-1+) would run above the 1/ Allowing for the ATS effect on M-1, and given the 1½ to 4½ per cent range of probable ATS effect, M-1 growth in a 2 to 5 per cent range after ATS would be economically equivalent to 6½ per cent ex-ATS.

-8alternative B range.

Even so it should be noted that our new interest

rate estimates still assume some renewed downward drift in M-1 demand, apart from the effects of automatic transfers.1 / (12)

The longer-run ranges for M-2 and M-3 have been

raised relative to M-1.

Thus, under alternative B, M-2 growth for

the year ahead is expected to be in a 7 to 9½ per cent range and M-3 growth in an 8

to 11 per cent range, ½ and 1 percentage point

higher than current longer-run ranges.

The M-2 range was raised

to take account of the recent somewhat more rapid growth in time deposits other than large CD's and to allow for a modest shift from deposits at thrift institutions to ATS accounts at banks.2/

The

range for M-3 was raised more substantially in recognition of the apparent ability, and also willingness, of savings institutions, especially S&L's, to raise substantial amounts of new money through the 6-month money market certificate.

Of course, net inflows of

deposits to thrifts should slow from its recent pace in the months ahead, as rising interest rates further moderate inflows of deposits subject to fixed rate-ceilings, the effects of the stock adjustment from other financial assets wane, and depository institutions perhaps

Appendix II displays projected velocity changes, with and without automatic transfers in the case of M-1.

The $2 billion shift that we have assumed would increase M-2 growth by about ¼ percentage point over the QIII '78 QIII '79 period.

become less aggressive in offering the new certificates as the spread continues to narrow between their deposit costs and mortgage rates. (13)

The longer-run alternative C ranges encompass growth

rates for M-2 and M-3 nearer to those currently in place.

In addition,

alternative C calls for a slower longer-run growth in M-1--in a 3 to 5

per cent range, abstracting from ATS.

Growth around the

upper end of that range would tend to compensate for the "overshoot" in M-1 expansion over the first three quarters of this year and would lead to about a 6

per cent annual rate of growth from the end of

1977 through the third quarter of 1979, as may be seen in the bottom line of appendix III-1. (14)

Two alternative short-run specifications for the

monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate believed to be generally consistent with the longer-run proposals for the aggregates are presented below for Committee consideration.

Alternative I contemplates a Federal

funds rate range centered on the current 8¾ per cent level, while Alternative II calls for a rise in the funds rate to 9¼ per cent. No easing alternative for the short-run is presented because all proposed longer-run ranges involve either stable or rising interest rates over the next several months. are shown in tables on pages 10

(More detailed and longer-run data and 11;

the numbers in parentheses

in those tables show estimates abstracting from the effect of ATS).

-10Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M-1+ Alt. A

1978

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

360.9 362.0 363.3 (364.2)

360.9 362.0 363.3

360.9

588.0

361.9

(364.2)

363.3 (363.9)

589.5 593.2

589.3 592.6

862.4 867.8 874.0

862.4 867.4 873.2

QIV

357.3 363.2

(364.2)

357.3 363.1

(364.1)

357.3 362.8

(363.8)

582.6 593.1

582.6 593.0

582.6 592.4

854.0 874.0

854.0 873.9

854.0 873.1

QI QII QIII

365.9 (370.5) 368.8 (376.7) 372.2 (383.2)

364.3 366.1 368.6

(368.9) (374.0) (379.6)

363.0 (367.6) 363.4 (371.3) 365.0 (376.0)

603.8 614.2 625.0

601.4 609.9 619.2

599.2

892.7 911.6 931.2

890.8 908.1

888.7 904.3 921.2

September October

November 1978 1979

M-2

QIII

605.7

613.4

926.4

Growth Rates Monthly: 1978

October November

3.7 4.3 (7.3)

(7.3)

3.3 3.6

3.1 7.5

(6.6)

7.5 8.6

7.0 8.0

8.9

Quarterly Average: 1978

QIV

6.6 (7.7)

6.5 (7.6)

6.2 (7.3)

7.2

9.4

1979

QI QII

3.0 (6.9) 3.2 (6.7) 3.7 (6.9)

1.3 (5.3) 2.0 (5.5) 2.7 (6.0)

0.2 (4.2) 0.4 (4.0)

1.8 (5.1)

7.2 6.9 7.0

8.6 8.5 8.6

4.8 (7.4) 3.4 (6.9

3.9 (6.5) 2.4 (5.8)

3.2 (5.8) 1.1 (4.6)

7.3 7.0

6.5 5.9

4.2 (7.2)

3.2 (6.2)

2.2 (5.2)

7.3

6.3

QIII

7.7 7.8 8.1

7.1 7.0 7.5

Semi-Annual: QIII '78-QI '79 QI '79-QIII '79

9.1 8.6

8.1 7.3

Annual: QIII '78-QIII '79

5.3

9.0

8.5

7.9

-11Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) M-3

Bank Credit

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1978

September October November

1471.7 1485.2 1498.9

1471.7 1484.8 1498.0

946.9 955.1 964.5

946.9 955.1 964.0

946.9 955.1 963.5

1978

QIII

1455.9 1498.7

1455.9 1498.5

1455.9 1497.7

939.9 964.0

939.9 963.6

939.9 963.2

1536.6 1571.8 1607.8

1534.5 1567.4 1601.0

1531.9 1562.4 1593.9

989.7 1015.3 1040.4

988.6 1013.6 1037.6

987.5 1011.9 1034.8

11.0 11.1

10.7 10.7

10.4 11.8

10.4 11.2

11.7

11.5

10.3

10.1

9.1 8.0 8.1

10.7 10.3 9.9

10.4 10.1 9.5

10.1 9.9 9.1

QIV 1979

QI QII

QIII Growth Rates Monthly 1978

October November

10.4

10.6

Quarterly Average: 1978

QIV

11.8

1979

10.1 9.2 9.2

QII QIII

9.6 8.6 8.6

Semi-Annual: QIII '78-QI '79 QI '69-QIII '79

11.1 9.3

10.8 8.7

10.4 8.1

10.6 10.2

10.4 9.9

10.1 9.6

10.4

10.0

9.5

10.7

10.4

10.1

Annual: QIII '78-QIII

'79

-12Alt. I

Alt. II

Ranges for Oct.-Nov.

M-1

to 7

½ to 6½

(M-1 without ATS)

(3½ to 7½ )

(3 to 7)

M-2

6 to 10

5½ to 9½

M-1+

3 to 7

2½ to 6½

Federal funds rate (Intermeeting period)

8½ to 9

9 to 9½

Addendum:

(15)

For the Committee's convenience, and in case of an

adverse court finding, the short-run specifications include M-1 both with and without the impact of automatic transfers.

The

supplementary aggregate M-1+ is also shown should the Committee wish to provide additional quantitative guidance for the Desk in the transitional period.

In developing our estimate for M-1 including

the effect of ATS, we have assumed that $900 million are shifted from demand to ATS accounts on average in November, with a range of error of plus or minus $600 million.

This works out to an effect on M-1

over the two month Oct-Nov. period of ½ to 2½ percentage points at an annual rate.

Over this period M-1 can be expected to grow

in a 1 to 7 per cent annual rate range (or 3½ to 7½ per cent) abstracting from ATS).

A sizable build-up in Treasury cash balances

may be a factor holding down M-1 growth in October, but in November

-13M-1 expansion is expected to resume at close to the average pace thus far this year (apart from the effect of ATS).1/ (16)

Expansion in M-2 under Alternative I is likely to be

in a 6 to 10 per cent annual rate range over the October-November period.

The interest-bearing component of M-2 will, of course,

be buoyed by shifts from demand to automatic transfer savings accounts, and growth of the remaining savings and time deposits included in this aggregate is expected to slow only somewhat from its recent strong pace.

Although inflows to nontransferable savings

accounts are expected to slow sharply from the recent surprisingly rapid pace, sales of 6-month certificates and large denomination time deposits are likely to continue to support time deposit growth at a rate close to recent levels. (17)

The continued surprising strength of thrift deposits

is also likely to be sustained in October as these institutions, through the issuance of 6-month certificates, capture a larger than normal portion of the sizable volume of longer-term certificates maturing this month at banks and thrifts.

Growth in thrift deposit

inflows seems likely to begin slowing by November, though remaining considerably stronger than in the first half of the year. (18)

If the Federal funds rate remains around its current

level of 8¾ per cent over the intermeeting period and published

The relationship between current levels of M-1, as well as other monetary aggregates, and the FOMC's longer-run ranges are shown in the set of charts attached after p. 18.

-14growth of the monetary aggregates moderates as the staff projects, other short-term interest rates are also likely to change little. Business demands for short-term credit probably will continue at the more moderate third quarter level, and the Treasury is not expected to be tapping the bill market for new money until late in the year. (19)

Under alternative I, yields on longer-term securities

also are likely to show little further change in the near-term, abstracting from possible expectational effects of any new Administration wage-price program.

Oncoming supplies of new corporate and municipal

securities are expected to remain relatively moderate, and given recent foreign central bank acquisitions of nonmarketable Treasury securities, the Treasury's need to raise new cash in the market over the fourth quarter has been reduced somewhat further.

In its mid-November

refunding--to be announced October 25--the Treasury is expected to roll over $4.6 billion of maturing debt and to raise around $1½ to 2 billion of new money.

Following thisoperation, the Treasury probably

will need to raise only about $7

billion of new money in the coupon

market over the remainder of the fourth quarter. (20)

Alternative II calls for an increase in the Federal

funds rate to around the mid-point of a 9 to 9½ per cent range during the intermeeting period.

This alternative appears particularly

appropriate if the Committee opts for the slower longer-run growth in the aggregates encompassed by alternative C.

It would also be

consistent with the longer-run policy stance indexed by alternative B, as well as with near-term efforts to support the dollar in exchange markets.

The tightening of the funds market over the weeks ahead

-15envisaged by alternative II would--by introducing restraint earlier-increase the likelihood that the funds rate would not have to rise into the upper part of the 9 to 10¼ per cent range projected for next year under alternative B. (21)

Under alternative II, M-1 growth, including the effect

of automatic transfers, would likely be in a ½ to 6½ per cent annual rate range over the October-November period, M-2 in a 5½ to 9½ per cent range, and M-1+ in a 2½ to 6½ per cent range.

The additional

interest rate pressure would slow the growth of non-transferable savings deposits and time deposits subject to fixed rate-ceilings, but the effects of this slowing on the total interest-bearing components of M-2 and M-3 may be dampened by issuance of 6-month certificates and, at banks, large denomination time deposits. (22)

The

percentage point increase in the funds rate

contemplated under alternative II would place further upward pressure on other short- and long-term interest rates.

The bond

markets appear to be in a strong technical position, with dealer inventories light and the forward calendar of new offerings moderate, but such a rise in the funds rate, coupled with the recent discount rate action, is likely to carry long rates back above the early July peaks.

Mortgage market conditions are likely to tighten further

as the effective cost of the 6-month money market certificate moves up to close to 9½ per cent, and thrifts become somewhat more cautious in their lending attitudes.

-16Directive language (23)

Given below are suggested operational paragraphs

for the directive.

Alternative language consistent with the short-

run specifications of the alternatives discussed in the preceding section is shown for the Committee's objective for the Federal funds rate early in the period.

At a later point, alternative language is

also provided for placing main emphasis either on monetary aggregates or on money market conditions.

The specifications adopted at the

September meeting are shown in strike-through form. (24)

To take account of uncertainties associated with

the introduction of ATS, the Committee may also wish to consider certain modifications of its instructions to the Manager.

These might include

introduction of M-1+ as a third operating range and insertion of language to recognize the uncertainties introduced by ATS.

addition, at least for now, the Committee may wish to eliminate the phrase in the directive that gives equal weight to M-1 and M-2 so as to enable the Manager to take the behavior of M-1+ into account in appraising performance of the aggregates in the transition period. These modifications are indicated in the language below in capital letters and strike-through form.

In the short run, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that are broadly consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited above, while giving due regard to developing conditions in domestic

-17and international financial markets more generally AND TO UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE AUTOMATIC TRANSFER SERVICE.

Early in the period until the next regular

meeting, System open market operations shall be directed at attaining a weekly-average Federal funds rate (A) AT ABOUT THE CURRENT LEVEL (B) slightly (OR SOMEWHAT) above the current level. Subsequently, operations shall be directed at maintaining the 8¼ to 8¾] weekly-average Federal funds rate with the range of [DEL: ____TO ____ per cent.

In deciding on the specific objective

for the Federal funds rate the Manager shall be guided mainly by the relationship between the latest estimates of annual September-October] OCTOBER-NOVEMBER rates of growth in the [DEL: period of M-1, M-1+, and M-2 and the following ranges of tolerance: [DEL: 5 to 9] ____ TO ____ per cent for M-1, ____ TO ____ 6½ to 10½]____ PER CENT FOR M-+, and [DEL: M-2.

TO ____ per cent for

If, [DEL: giving approximately equal weight to M-1and M-2,]

their rates of growth appear to be Monetary aggregates emphasis significantly above or below the midpoints Money market emphasis CLOSE TO OR BEYOND THE UPPER OR LOWER LIMITS of the indicated ranges, the objective for the funds rate shall be raised or lowered in an orderly fashion within its range. If the rates of growth in the aggregates appear to be above the upper limit or below the lower limit of the indicated

-18ranges at a time when the objective for the funds rate has already been moved to the corresponding limit of its range, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee.

CHART 1

Recently Established M-1 Growth Ranges and Actual M-1

Billions of -Projection with ATS - Projection without ATS

-370

360

6%%

350

360 Q1 '78-Q1'79

350

360

350

360

6%%

350

340

330

1977

1978

1979

CHART 2

Recently Established M-2 Growth Ranges and Actual M-2

Billions of dollars -

Projection

Q2 '78--2 '79

- 905

890

6%%

875

- 860 -845 Q1 '78-C 1 '79

- 830

6H%

S860

S845 - 830 Q4 '77-Q4 '78

S860

6%%

-845 830

-845

Q3 '77-Q3 '78 6%%

1977

1978

860

- 830

1979

Chart

Recently Established M-3 Growth Ranges And Actual M-3

Billions of dollars 1590 -

Projection

10%

1560

S-

S1 ,

1530

7%'%

Q2'78-Q2'79

1500

-1470 - 1440 78-Q1'79 1500

\1470 1350

1440

1320

S1500

1290

s'/ ^^,

Q4'77-Q4'78 %

1470

1260

1440

1320

1500 107 % 10/2%

1470

1290 Q3'77-Q3'78

1260

1440 8%

1320

1410

1290

1380

1260

1350

1320

1260

1977

I 1978

I 1979

Chart 4

Recently Established Bank Credit Growth Ranges and Actual Bank Credit

Biflions of dollars - 1030 1 --

Projection S-

1010 81/%

990

970

950

10 S

930

Q1 '78- 01 '79 -910

I-

71/V2%

950

930 910 10%

950

Q4 '77-Q4 '78

930 910

950

10%

930

Q3 '77-Q3 '78 -910 --

-890

ol ' t

I 1977

I I

I I 1978

1I 1

I 1979

Appendix I Projected Federal Funds Rate Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

8% to 9k

9 to 9

1978

QIV

to 9

1979

to 9

9 to 10l

QII

to 9

9 to 10

9% to 11

QIII

to 9k

9 to 10

9% to 11

to 11

Appendix II

Implied Velocity Growth Rates V-1 1978

1979

(GNP/M-1)

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

III

2.5

4.0 (2.9)

3.9 (2.9)

4.1 (3.0)

8.8 (4.8)

10.0 (6.0)

10.5 (6.5)

7.5 (4.0)

8.0 (4.4)

8.6 (5.0)

III

7.2 (4.0)

7.2 (3.9)

7.1 (3.7)

III

4.8

3.5

3.4

3.6

4.4

5.5

6.0

3.8

4.4

4.7

III

3.8

III

1.3

1.1

1.3

3.2

3.5

2.2

2.0

III

2.2

1.9

1.4

V-1+(GNP/M-1+) 1978

1979

V-2 (GNP/M-2) 1978

1979

Appendix Table III-1 MONEY STOCK--M-1 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)1/ Base Period

Ending Period

74IV

1975 I

2.1

75IV

75111

7511

751

761

7611

76111

76IV

771

7711

77111

77IV

781

7811

78111

4.3

6.5

III

5.2

6.7

7.0

4.6

5.4

4.9

2.9

1976 I1

4.6

5.3

4.8

3.8

4.7

5.0

5.6

5.4

4.9

5.9

7.0

III

4.9

5.3

5.1

4.6

5.2

5.4

3.9

5.2

5.7

5.5

5.2

5.8

6.2

5.8

7.7

5.4

5.8

5.6

6.1

6.4

6.2

7.4

7.2

5.7

6.1

6.0

6.5

6.9

6.8

7.8

7.9

8.6

III

6.0

6.4

6.3

6.8

7.1

7.9

8.0

8.4

8.3

6.1

6.5

6.4

6.9

7.2

7.9

8.2

8.0

7.7

6.1

6.5

6.4

6.8

7.1

7.6

7.7

7.4

7.0

6.3

6.4

6.8

7.2

7.4

7.5

8.0

8.1

8.2

8.1

8.3

III

6.5

6.8

7.2

7.5

8.0

8.2

8.1

8.0

8.2

9.1

7.9

6.4 6.1 5.8

6.5 6.2 5.9

6.5 6.2 5.8

6.7 6.4 6.0

6.6 6.2 5.9

6.6 6.1 5.7

6.3 5.9 5.4

6.1 5.6 5.1

5.9 5.3 4.7

5.8 5.1 4.4

4.9 4.1 3.3

4.2 3.2 2.2

7.4 7.1 6.8

7.7 7.4 7.1

7.7 7.4 7.0

7.8 7.4 7.0

7.7 7.3 6.8

7.6 7.1 6.6

7.6 7.1 6.5

7.9 7.2 6.5

7.4 6.6 6.8

7.2 6.2 5.2

1977 I

1978 I

1979 III Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C

6.0 5.8 5.6

6.9 *

6.2 6.0 5.8

6.9 *

6.2 6.0

6.2 5.9

5.7

10.3

Without the effect of automatic transfers Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C

6.7 6.5 6.2

6.9 6.7 6.5

7.0 6.7 6.5

6.9 6.7 6.4

Based on quarterly average data.

7.2 7.0 6.7

7.4 7.1 6.8

Appendix Table

III-2

MONEY STOCK--M-l+ (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)1/

Ending Period 1975 I

74IV

751

75111

75IV

761

7611

Base Period 76III 76IV

771

7711 77111 77IV

8.5

11.9

III

9.4

11.6

8.8 10.0 9.8 11.0

9.1

78111

6.9

10.7

10.4

14.1

10.5

11.6

11.5

13.9

13.8

III

10.1

10.9

10.7

10.6

11.8

10.7

11.5

11.4

11.5

12.6

12.2

11.3

15.1

11.0

11.7

11.8

12.8

12.4

12.0

14.1

13.2

10.8

11.4

11.3

12.1

11.7

11.2

12.4

11.1

8.9

III

10.5

11.1

11.0

10.9

11.5

11.1

10.6

11.3

10.1

8.6

8.2

10.2

10.7

10.6

10.5

11.0

10.5

10.0

10.4

9.3

8.0

7.6

7.0

1978 I

7811

11.3

1977 I

781

5.3

1976 I

7511

9.8 10.2

10.1

9.9

10.3

7.7

9.8

9.2

9.5

8.4

7.3

6.7

6.0

5.0

9.6

10.0

9.8

9.7

9.9

9.5

9.0

9.1

8.2

7.2

6.8

6.3

6.0

7.0

III

9.3

9,6

9.5

9.3

9.5

9.1

8.6

8.7

7.8

6.9

6.5

6.1

5.8

5.4

Alt.

8.9

9.1

8.8

8.9

8.2

7.6

7.1

6.8

6.7

6.9

7.3

Alt.

8.7

8.9

8.5

8.6

7.9

7.2

6.7

6.4

6.2

6.3

6.1

6.3

Alt.

8.5

8.6

8.3

8.4

7.5

6.9

6.3

6.0

5.7

5.6

5.3

1979 III

1/ Based on quarterly average data.

Appendix Table III-3 MONEY STOCK--M-2 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)1/ Ending Period

74IV

1975 I

6.4

751

7511

75111

75IV

761

7611

Base Period 76111 76IV

771

7711

77111 77IV

8.3 10.2

III

8.9 10.2

8.4

9.1

8.6

6.9

8.9

9.6

9.4

9.0

11.1

9.2

9.7

9.6

9.4

10.7

III

9.2

9.6

9.5

9.3

10.2

9.7 10.2

10.1

10.9

11.2

13.3

9.8 10.2

10.3

11.0

11.2

12.3

11.2

9.8 10.2

10.2

10.8

10.7

10.8

11.4

10.4

9.5

III

9.9 10.2

10.2

10.7

10.6

10.7

11.1

10.3

9.9

10.2

9.7 10.0

10.0

10.4

10.3

10.5

9.8

9.4

9.3

10.0

9.9

9.8

9.9

9.3

8.8

8.5

7.0

1976 I

1977 I

781

7811

78111

10.3

10.3 9.7

9.0

9.5

9.8

9.7

9.4

9.7

9.6

9.5

9.8

9.7

9.6

9.7

9.1

8.6

8.4

7.6

III

9.4

9.6

9.5

9.8

9.6

9.1

8.7

8.6

8.1

Alt.

9.3

9.5

9.4

9.6

9.4

9.1

8.9

8.6

8.9

9.0

Alt.

9.2

9.4

9.3

9.4

9.2

8.9

8.6

8.3

8.5

Alt.

9.1

9.2

9.1

9.3

9.0

8.6

8.4

8.0

8.1

7.9

1978 I

9.2

1979 III

Based on quarterly average data.

Appendix Table III-4 MONEY STOCK--M-3 growth, compounded quarterly)1/ of (Annual rates

Ending Period

74IV

1975 I

8.3

751

7511

75111 75IV

761

7611

Base Period 76111 76IV

771

7711

10.6

13.0

III

11.6

13.2

13.5

11.1

12.1

11.6

11.4

12.2

12.0

11.2

12.7

11.6

12.2

12.0

11.6

12.5

12.3

III

11.5

12.1

11.9

11.5

12.1

11.8

11.3

12.0

12.5

12.4

12.2

12.8

12.9

13.2

15.0

12.1

12.5

12.3

12.8

13.0

13.9

12.8

11.9

12.3

12.2

12.1

12.4

12.8

11.7

10.7

III

12.0

12.3

12.1

12.4

12.7

12.0

11.6

12.5

11.9

12.2

12.1

12.0

12.3

12.2

12.4

11.7

11.4

11.8

11.6

11.9

11.8

11.6

11.8

11.7

11.6

11.0

10.5

11.3

11.6

11.4

11.3

11.4

11.3

11.1

10.5

10.0

III

11.3

11.5

11.4

11.2

11.3

11.2

11.1

11.0

10.5

10.1

1976 I

1977 I

1978 I

77111 77IV

781

7811

78III

9.8

11.1 9.5

7.9

9.0

8.0

10.0

9.3

8.8

9.2

9.9

10.4

* *

1979 III

Alt

11.1

11.2

11.1

11.0

11.1

11.0

10.9

10.8

10.4

10.2

9.9

9.7

Alt

11.0

11.1

11.0

10.9

10.8

10.7

10.3

10.0

9.7

9.4

9.7

Alt

10.9

11.0

10.9

10.8

10.7

10.6

10.5

10.1

9.7

9.4

9.2

Based on quarterly average data.

9.8

10.0

10.4

10.0

9.4

9.7

Chart I

13/78

Money Market Conditions and Interest Rates

Per cent

Per cent -- 10

INTEREST RATES Long-term Z,__,.

Billions of dollars

1977

1978

1977

1978

1977

Per cent -1 11

1978

II Actual and Projected Reserves Chart

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class IIFOMC 10/13/78

Billions of dollars 38

TOTAL

-37

-36

NONBORROWED

-- 35

I I

Annual rate, per cent MONTHLY GROWTH RATES

S20 TOTAL

NONBORROWED J

J J 1977

20 D

J J 1978

Table 1

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC OCT. 13, 1978

MONETARY AGGREGATES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Broad Narrow (M2) 2

Period ______(Ml)

Total U.S.Govt Deposits l/

Time & Savings Deposits Other Than CD's Other Savings Total

CDSources CD

Nondeposit of F1-unds 2/

MONTHLY LEVELS-$BIL 1978-JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT.

ANNUAL

354.2 356.7 360.9 (362.0)

846.2 853.5 862.4

1867.7)

14.2 14.9 15.7 (19.7)

579.4 583.0 589.5 (592.9)

492.0 496.1 501.4 (505.7)

220.9 222.4 224.2 (224.6)

271.1 274.3 277.3 (281.0)

87.4 86.3 88.1 ( 87.3)

69.2

71.3 74.3

GROW1H

QUARTERLY

5.2 11.5 9.2

1978-1ST iTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR.

6.5 8.8 10.4

12.3 9.1 10.4

7.4 6.8 11.2

2.6 1.3 4.5

11.5 11.4 16.6

43.2 22.9 6.5

6.2 9.9 7. 6

6.9 7.9 8.9

12.8 10.1 9.5

7.3 6.4 9.9

2.6 1.t

11.4 10.5 17.2

50.0 32.* 7.5

4.8 8.5 14.1 3.7)

8.0 10.4 12.5 7.4)

10.2 7.5 13.4 6.9)

10.3 11.5 11.4

8.9)

10.0)

10.2)

QUARTERLY-AV 1978--1ST GR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR.

1.3

MONTHLY 1978-JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. SEPT .- OCT. WEEKLY

22.5 14.2 13.1 16.0)

10.9)

5.9)

14.7)

9.7 -15.1

25.0 -10.9) 7.0)

LEVELS-$BIL

1978-SEPT.

13 20 27 P OCT.

.1l

NOTE: 1/ 2/

10.3)

8.1 9.7 2.1)

-4.3

361.4 360.5 361.1 361.9

861.3 861.7 862.6 864.2

14.5 14.3 16.2 16.5

587.4 589.8 590.6 589.8

499.9

359.9

864.0

16.2

591.1

£L

________ L __________ I-

501.5 502.3

223.7 224.1 224.1 224.2

276.2 277.1 277.4 278.1

87.5 88.6 89.1 87.5

504.1

224.3

279.8

87.0

501.2

70,0 70.7 74.1

75.5

______

P - PRELIMINARY DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. SECURITILS SOLD UNDER INCLUDES BORROWINGS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES MENTS TO REPURCHASE. (EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS), LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS.

AGREE-

1-A TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Table

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXCEPT AS NOTED

Total Time and Savings

Period

Total Tim

OUTSTANDING

Savings Deposits Individdand I Business Nonprofit NSA) (

550.6 556.7 561.7 565.2 571.6 574.5 579.4 583.0 589.5

220.7 220.9 221.0 221.6 222.0 221.7 220.9 224.2

205.2 205.2 205.8 206.3 206.5 206.1 206.0 207.7 209.2

55.3

17.7

1977--II1 IV

13.1 17.0

1978--1 II III

17.3 14.1 13.6

OCT.

13,

1978

Time Deposits

Government (NSA) _____

{______ Total

Memo: Large Large Small Negotiable CD's Denomination Denomination ______ ______j em Lrg

BILLIONS)

1978--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT.

CHANGES

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II FOMC

329.9 335.8

164.2

170.4

165.7 165.4

76.3 79.4

340.8

174.3

166.5

343.6 349.7 352.8 358.5 360.6 365.4

176.1 181.2 182.7 187.2 188.7 191.9

167.5 168.5 170.1 171.3 171.9 173.5

82.U 83.4 b7.l 86.7 87.4

10.8 11.0

5.0 5.2 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.2 4.0 4.0

16.9

2.3

-1.6

37.7

23.9

13.8

11 .3

3.9 2.9

4.7 3.3

0.4 0.3

-1.2 -0.6

9.2 14.1

5.9 12.7

3.3 1.3

0.7 7.1

1.4 0.9 0.7

1.2 0.9 1.3

-0.2 0.2 0.1

0.3 -0.2 -0.7

16.0

14.5 10.4 9.3

1.5 2.8 3.5

8.6

13.2 12.8

6.1 5.0 3.5 6.4 2.9

0.2 0.1 0.6 0.4 -0.3

4.9

-0.8

0.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.4 -0.1 1.7 1.5

6.2 3.9 1.8 5.1 1.5 4.5 1.5 3.2

-0.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.6 1.6

3.1 2.6 1.4 3.7 -0.4 0.7 -1.1 1.8

222.4

10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.6

86.3

88.1

BILLIONS)

1977 YEAR QUARTERLY AVERAGE:

MONTHLY

6.S

1.6

AVERAGES

1978--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT.

3.6 6.5

1.5 1.8

0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2

0.2 0.2

0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 -G.7 -0.2 0.0

5.9 5.0 2.8 6.1 3.1 5.7 2.1 4.8

AND (tl, RESPECTIVELY, ON IABLE I-MONETARY (6), NOTE: COLUMNS (1), (2), AND 19) ON THIS TABLE CORRESPOND TO COLUMNS (4), WITH ESTIMATLS FOR NONMEMBER BANKS 12), AND (6) REFLECT DAILY DATA REPORTED BY MEMBER BANKS, FIGURES IN COLUMNS (1i) AGGREGATES. SAVINGS DEPOSITS OF BUSINESS AND DERIVED FROM DATA REPORTED BY SMALL MEMBER BANKS, BENCHMARKED TO NONMEMBER CALL REPORT FIGURES. (7)-REFLECT bREAKDOWNS REPORTED EACH AND LARGE DENOMINATION TIME DEPOSITS -COLUMN GOVERNMENTAL UNITS--COLUMNS 14) AND 15)WEDNESDAY BY LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS BLOMN UP TO REPRESENT DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS ON THE BASIS OF CALL REPORT RELAIIUNSHIPS.

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 2

BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

OCT.

13,

1978

REQUIRED RESERVES

BANK RESERVES Total

Nonborrowed

Monetary

Total

Reserves

Base

Required

Private Demand

Total Time Deposits

Gov't and Interbank

Period

MONTHLY LLVtLL-SM1LLIONs

38,194 37,909 38,174 (38,418)

1Q78--JULY AuG. SEPT. OCT. PERCENT ANNUAL

36,877 36,769 37,115 (37,263)

134,835 135,314 136,742 (137,722)

17,996 37,741 37,974 (36,213)

2i,486 22,515 22,445 (22,629)

13, 13 13,625 13,734

1,901 .,53o .,394 1( 1741)

(1,b4)

GROWTH

QUARTERLY 197'1--1,T QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR.

12.9 10.1 4.1

5.8 11.6 4.b

8.6 3.2 5.3

7.9 10.4 6.6

5.7 11.8 4.5

-L.2 13.1 .a

8.5 6.3 8.4

14.5 0.3 6.2

9.7 8.0 9.1

8.3 6.9 6.3

4.3 5.0 9.5

12.b .1.5 6.7

(

8.6 4.3 12.7 8.6)

(

14.3 -8.1 7.4 7.b)

5.6 5.1 14.z -0.0)

(

3.4 1.1 9.6 -8.0)

(

10.7)

(

7.5)

(

O.b)

QU RTERLY-AV 1974--1 1 QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. MONTHLY

7.1)

(

8.0 -3.5 11.3 4.6)

(

8.1)

(

8.1)

14.9 -9.0

1978--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT.

b8.,

SEPT.-OCT.

.7)

WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1978-SEPI.

OCT.

NOTE:

13 20 27

36,235 37,903 37,872 38,469

37,070 37,393 36,949 36,910

136,421 136,247 136,418 137,405

37,930 37,790 37,697 38,234

22 ,6 i 22,539 23,049 23,038

13,620 13.701 13,74b 13,817

1,921 l i55l, d99 1,379

38,705

37,420

137,654

3d,532

22,949

13,814

1,769

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

ASSOLIATED

WTrH

CHANGES

IN RESERVE ReQUIREMENT

RATIO.

TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES1/ ($ million, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Bills Net ithin Change 2 Change 2/ iyear

-490 7,232 1,280 -468 863 4,361

I - 5

Over 10

Total

789 579 797 3,284 3,025 2,833

539 500 434 1,510 1,048 758

167 129 196 1,070 642 553

1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187 4,660

681 628

96 166

128 108

1,021 1,001

1977--Qtr. III Qtr. IV

886 186

1978--Qtr. I Qtr. II Qtr. III

-2,655 5,444 3,152

1,123 1,156 774

247 334 235

2,175 2,246 1,697

1,670 -620 4,395

235 290 631

145 74 115

671 519 1,057

1978--Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. 1978--Aug.

116 99

Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/

235 283 2,635

424 350

Within year

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 13, 1978

Federal Agencies

Net Change

Net

Net Purchases 4/ Total

Outright Holdings Total 5/

Rs 6/ 6/

1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891 1,433

1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227 10,035

-1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607 -2,892

4,273

1 - 5

5 - 10

Over 10

592 400 1,665 824 469 792 -

386

177

145

707

-643

-2,331 34

301

-555 7,930 4,632

-1,133 1,224 266

2,341 -135 5,724

-1,026 -699

231 1,043 3,358

-2,536 1,701 1,102

-6 -863 461 1,241 209

6,760 -4,641 3,445 3,056 -373

-6 -6

2,751

-7,473 2,869 145 5,729

712 100

-6,270 5,822

-173

301

113 122

947 751

-92 ----

-81

-173

9 16 23

30 Sept. 6 13 20 27

634

168

350

110

122

751

2,001

4 11 18p 25

721 100

LEVIEL--Oct. 11 billions)

49.7

Oct.

-- --

-22 634

2,950

10.8

31.3

13.6

9.8

65.5

1.9

3.6

1.6

7.9

123.1

Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, 5/ and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 13, 1978

TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars)

U.S. Govt. Security

Underwriting

Dealer Positions

Syndicate Positions

Bills

o up o n

Issues

Corpora Bonds

Member Bank Reserve Positions Excess**

Municipal Bonds

Reerve

Borrowing at FRB** III

Basic Reserve Deficit**

Total

Seasonal

8 New York

38 Others

1977--High Low

7,234 1,729

3,017 -1,445

295 0

487 116

513 -111

1,861 20

131 8

-9,151 -4,234

-13,975

1978--High Low

5,625 278

2,043 -1,076

215 0

349 123

719 -227

1,716 172

208 25

-8,224 -2,839

-14,602

1977--Sept.

4,812

-313

128

230

209

626

112

-7,333

-11,120

4,142 3,617 4,257

-360 610 804

83 36 195

186 210 367

210 251 193

1,305 863 570

112 83 55

-6,480 -6,971 -7,403

-11,511 -11,825 -11,350

Feb. Mar.

4,127 3,418 2,713

327 1,492 740

42 24 96

293 197 268

268 243 200

484 406 328

32 49 47

-6,047 -4,980 -6,778

-12,299 -12,603 -11,060

Apr. May June

3,183 1,203 2,847

-183 5 78

46 25 35

202 264 188

149 219 178

557 1,212 1,094

44 92 120

-6,196 -4,038 -4,514

-12,998 -11,653 -12,202

July Aug. Sept,

1,196 1,994 *2,571

-626 423 *125

51 34 49

159 176 95

197 168 20 0p

1,317 1,139 1,060p

143 189 191p

-3,651 -4,793 -5,155p

-10,204 -11,089 -11,398p

2 9 16 23 30

1,595 1,928 1,956 1,941 2,087

-301 1,382 400

0 14 0 123 33

184 172 188 179 156

353 15 323 -9 269

1,438 878 963 1,606 1,023

166 175 184 196 208

-3,242 -5,145 -5,946 -4,567 -3,969

-10,095 -11,433 -10,999 -11,768 -10,364

Sept. 6 13 20 27

2,338 3,086 *3,606 *1,533

352 *52 *-297

15 90 92 0

139 57 117 67

305 113 175 235p

1,165 510 923 9 1,55 p

186 174 189 205p

-4,707 -5,502 -4,971 -5,122

-11,622 -13,362 -11,031 - 9,861

Oct.

*1,676 *1,393

*-19 *-369

35 20p

126 98p

Oct. Nov.

Dec.

1978--Jan.

1978--Aug.

4 11 18 25

-305 462

455

1,2 p 2 39 1, p

213p 209p

- 8,206

- 8,273

-10, 20p 7 -10,13 p

NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except: for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * **

Strictly confidential. Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent)

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 13, 1978

Short-Term

Long-Term

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

l Mun Corp.-Aaa Municipal Utility New Recently B Issue Offered Buyer (11) (12) (13)

1977--High Low

6.65 4.47

6.27 4.41

6.62 4.67

6.51 4.56

6.70 4.50

6.66 4.63

7.75 6.25

7.39 5.83

7.70 6.59

7.99 7.26

8.36 7.90

8.48 7.95

5.93 5.45

9.00 8.65

8.98 8.46

8.39 7.56

1978--High Low

8.85 6.58

8.17 6.16

8.27 6.55

8.42 6.42

9.13 6.65

8.83 6.68

9.75 7.75

8.56 7.40

8.57 7.72

8.72 8.01

9.18 8.61

9.22 8.48

6.32 5.58

9.85 8.98

10.02 9.13

9.20 8.43

1977--Sept.

Federal Federal Funds (1)

Bills Treasury Treasury Bills BiMIssueMarket Auction 3-mo 1-yr 6-mo (2) (3) (4)

CD's Ne Issue-

Bank

NYC 90-Day (5)

Comm. paper Paper 90-119 Day (6)

rime

U.S. Govt.-Constant Maturity Yields yr 2yr

Home Mortgages Secondary Market Secondary Market r r FNMA GNMA on. Auc. Sec. (14) (15) (16)

6.14

5.81

6.13

5.99

6.01

6.09

7.13

6.84

7.21

7.57

8.07

5.51

8.90

8.74

8.02

Oct. Nov. Dec.

6.47 6.51 6.56

6.16 6.10 6.07

6.52 6.52 6.52

6.41 6.43 6.38

6.53 6.56 6.65

6.51 6.54 6.61

7.52 7.75 7.75

7.19 7.22 7.30

7.44 7.46 7.59

7.71 7.76 7.87

8.23 8.28 8.34

8.22 8.25 8.38

5.64 5.49 5.57

8.92 8.92 8.96

8.82 8.86 8.94

8.16 8.19 8.27

1978--Jan. Feb. Mar.

6.70 6.78 6.79

6.44 6.45 6.29

6.80 6.86 6.82

6.68 6.74 6.64

6.82 6.77 6.73

6.75 6.76 6.75

7.93 8.00 8.00

7.61 7.67 7.70

7.86 7.94 7.95

8.14 8.22 8.21

8.68 8.69 8.71

8.60 8.67 8.67

5.71 5.62 5.61

9.02 9.15 9.20

9.17 9.31 9.35

8.56 8.64 8.60

Apr. May June

6.89 7.36 7.60

6.29 6.41 6.73

6.96 7.28 7.53

6.70 7.02 7.20

6.84 7.20 7.66

6.82 7.06 7.59

8.00 8.27 8.63

7.85 8.07 8.30

8.06 8.25 8.40

8.32 8.44 8.53

8.90 8.95 9.09

8.85 8.98 9.07

5.80 6.03 6.22

9.36 9.57 9.70

9.44 9.66 9.91

8.71 8.90 9.05

July Aug. Sept.

7.81 8.04 8.45

7.01 7.08 7.85

7.79 7.73 8.01

7.47 7.36 7.95

8.00 7.86 8.34

7.85 7.83 8.39

9.00 9.01 9.41

8.54 8.33 8.41

8.55 8.38 8.42

8.69 8.45 8.47

9.14 8.82 8.86

9.18 8.91 8.86

6.28 6.12 6.09

9.74 9.79 9.76

10.01 9.81 9.79

9.15 8.86 8.95

2 9 16 23 30

7.89 7.83 7.87 8.14 8.28

6.78 6.76 6.96 7.25 7.35

7.71 7.56 7.68 7.83 7.82

7.36 7.17 7.26 7.47 7.55

7.88 7.85 7.85 7.80 7.90

7.81 7.78 7.76 7.85 7.93

9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00

8.36 8.21 8.37 8.35 8.37

8.40 8.32 8.43 8.36 8.39

8.49 8.41 8.52 8.42 8.43

8.90 8.81 -8.80 8.80

8.91 8.89 9.00 8.87 8.85

6.12 6.03 6.19 6.11 6.16

9.78 9.78 9.78 9.80 9.75

-9.82 -9.80 --

9.10 8.89 9.00 9.01 8.92

Sept. 6 13 20 27

8.30 8.33 8.36 8.62

7.60 7.70 7.92 8.04

7.86 7.91 8.02 8.15

7,74 7.79 7.98 8.28

8.00 8.34 8.50 8.50

8.07 8.30 8.45 8.52

9.25 9.25 9.50 9.50

8.35 8.34 8.45 8.49

8.35 8.33 8.46 8.54

8.39 8.36 8.49 8.61

8.77 8.74 8.90 9.06

8.79 8.73 8.92 9.00

6.13 6.02 6.12 6.09

9.75 9.75 9.75 9.78

9.78 -9,79 --

8.92 8.89 8.90 9.10

Oct.

4 11 18 25

8.85 8.71

8.03 8.17

8.19 8.27

8.38 8.42

8.75 9.13

8.64 8.83

9.75 9.75

8.50 8.48p

8.56 2 8.5 p

8.64 8.61p

9.04 --

9.04 9.04p

6.07 6.10

9.85 n.a.

9.91 --

9.13 9.07

Daily--Oct.

5 12

8.75 8 8 . 0p

8.19 7.78

8.25 8.26

--- 8.73 8.93

9.75 9.75

8.51 8.48p

8.56 8.49p

8.65 8.59p

1978--Aug.

--- ..

...

NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1, 2, 3, 6, and 7 are statement week averages of daily data. Weekly data in column 4 are average rates set in the auctions of For columns 8 through Data in column 5 are 1-day Wednesday quotes. 6-month bills that will be issued on the Thursday following the end of the statement week. 11, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 12 and 13 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 14 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 15 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 16 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling.

OCT.

12,

1978

1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES Appendix Table

Bank Reserves

Cdk

Period

Total Loans and Investments

Total

Nonborrowed

Monetary Base

3.2 1.2

5.9 7.0

3.9 8.0

5.2

2.7

8.3

1ST HALF 1977 2ND HALF 1977

3.5 6.8

2.9 2.6

1ST

7.5

ANNUALLY: 1975 1976

-0.3 1.0

1977

Money Stock Measures

5 6 7 (PER CENT ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH)

4.6 5.8

8.4 10.9

11.1 12.8

6.6 7.1

9.7 10.3

10.5 9.9

10.1 10.0

7.9

9.8

11.7

10.1

11.8

11.5

12.1

7.3 9.0

11.3 10.7

7.8 7.8

10.1 9.1

11.4 11.4

9.4 10.3

10.8 12.1

10.2 12.2

10.7 12.7

7.4

8.9

11.4

8.1

7.4

7.8

10.3

9.5

10.9

7.8

9.6

9.5

6.6

7.2

9.3

11.5

11.8

11.9

13.2

7.9 10.4 8.6

9.5 13.5 10.7

5.2 11.5 9.2

6.5 8.8 10.4

7.0 8.4 11.7

9.6 10.0 10.0

8.9 9.2 11.4

9.1 8.9 9.9

10.2 10.4 9.9

9.1

9.9

7.5

8.1

10.6

10.8

12.2

12.6

13.3

2/ SEMI-ANNUALLY

HALF 1978

QUARTERLY 4TH OTR.

1977

7.0

1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR.

1978 1978 1978

5.8 11.6 4.8

8.6 3.2 5.3

QUARTERLY-AV: 4TH OTR.

1977

6.1

3.4

1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR.

1978 1978 1978

8.5 6.3 8.4

14.5 0.3 6.2

9.7 8.0 9.1

9.6 13.0 11.0

6.2 9.9 7.6

6.9 7.9 8.9

7.7 7.8 10.0

10.3 10.1 8.8

9.8 9.1 9.9

10.0 8.9 8.6

11.3 10.2 9.2

1977--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

0.7 9.8 5.2 5.9

15.9 -13.4 20.9 16.1

8.1 10.0 8.0 10.4

7.2 12.9 9.2 6.3

9.1 10.5 1.1 8.2

9.0 9.5 6.0 6.1

12.3 11.6 8.1 7.9

9.2 12.4 11.8 9.9

12.2 13.3 11.5 10.1

12.4 13.7 12.0 9.7

12.1 14.4 13.5 11.2

1978--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT.

15.4 10.6 -8.6 9.3 10.0 15.0 14.9 -9.0 8.4

18.6 13.3 -6.1 1.8 -11.4 19.4 8.0 -3.5 11.3

13.6 6.9 3.0 7.8 12.0 11.1 8.6 4.3 12.7

13.6 7.9 6.9 18.5 15.6 6.0 16.7 5.2 9.9

11.3 0.4 3.9 19.6 7.2 7.5 4.8 8.5 14.1

9.5 4.1 5.1 11.2 7.1 7.8 8.0 10.4 12.5

9.2 5.6 6.2 9.5 7.2 8.4 9.3 11.8 13.7

11.8 8.5 8.3 11.9 11.2 6.6 8.2 8.0 13.7

10.6 7.9 8.0 10.2 9.6 7.6 9.3 10.3 14.3

11.5 8.0 7.5 10.1 9.7 6.8 7.4 9.1 12.9

12.7 9.3 8.6 11.7 10.8 8.3 8.0 8.8 12.7

MONTHLY:

1/ 2/

BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA.

RESERVE

REQUIREMENTS.

Appendix Table 1-B

OCT.

13,

1978

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Bank Reserves 1 Period a t

Nonborrowed

Monetary Base

Bank Credit Total Loans and

Money Stock Measures

Invest-

ments ANNUALLY: 1975 1976 1977

33,969 34,441 36 143

33,839 34,388 35,574

110,345 1189063 127,972

726.2 788.9 875.5

295.2 313.5 338.5

664.7 740.5 P09.5

1092.5 1236.5 1376.1

746.1 803.2 883.5

1173.8 1299.2 1450.1

1308.0 1437.6 1603.4

1351.0 14B5.0 1666.0

35 520

34,894

124,987

855.1

333.0

795.1

1344.9

858.9

1408.7

1557.1

1613.6

OCT. NOV. DEC.

35,809 35,965 36,143

34,503 35,103 35,574

126,026 126,871 1279972

864.3 870.9 875.5

335.9 336.2 338.5

801.4 805.4 809.5

1357.9 1367.1 1376.1

867.8 876.3 883.5

1424.3 1438.0 1450.1

1574.9 1590.6 1603.4

1633.0 1651.4 1666.6

197 -- JAN. FEB. MAR.

36 608 36,931 36,667

36,124 36,525 36,339

129,417 130,156 130,484

885.4 891.2 896.7

341.7 341.8 342.9

815.9 819.1 822.6

1386.6 1393.1 1400.3

892.2 898.5 904.7

1462.9 1472.5 1482.3

1618.7 1629.5 1639.7

1684.4 1691.4 1 709.5

APR. MAY JUNE

36,951 37,260 37,726

36,394 36,048 36,632

131,334 132,647 133.873

910.5 922.3 926.9

348.5 350.6 352.8

830.3 835.2 840.6

1411.4 1419.9 1429.8

913.7 922.2 927.3

1494.9 1506.9 1516.5

1653.5 1666.8 1676.3

1726.1 1741.7 1753.8

JULY AUG. SEPT.P

38,194 37,909 38,174

36,877 36,769 379115

134,835 135,314 136,742

939.8 943.9 951.7

354.2 356.7 360.9

646.2 853.5 862.4

1440.9 1455.1 1471.7

933.6 939.8 950.5

1528.3 1541.4 1559.8

1666.7 1699.5 1717.7

1765.5 1776.4 1797.2

37,723 38,122 37,618 38,101

36,845 37,159 36,012 37,075

134,616 135,360 135,196 136,017

356.7 357.5 357.4 355.5

852.0 853.8 854.9 854.3

938.3 939.8 941.0 940.9

6 13 20 27P

38,235 37,903 37,872 38,469

31,070 37,393 36,949 36,910

136,421 136,287 136,418 137,405

361.4 360.5 361.1 361.9

861.3 861.7 862.6 864.2

948.8 950.3 951.8 951.7

38 ,705

37,420

137,654

359.9

864.0

951.0

MONTHLY : 1977--SEPT.

WEEKLY: 1978-4UG.

SEPT.

OCT.

NOTES:

MEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DA1A ARE M3, MS* M6# W7i TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. DATA SHOMM IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS. P - PRELIMINARY

NOT-AVAILABLE

FOR

OCT.

13,

1978

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Mutual

Time and Savings Ti me a dDeposits Currency

Period

Demand Deposits

Other Than CD's

Total Total

Savings

Other

CD's

Savings

Credit

Bank & S&L Shares-1/

Union Shares-i

avings Bonds

7 8 6 5 (Per cent annual rates of growth)

Short Term

Other

Private

U.S Gov't Short-term Securities Assets 1/ 12

ANNUALLY8 8.9 9.6 9.5

3.3 4.6 7.4

7.9 8.0 11.4

11.7 15.0 11.2

17.5 25.0 11.1

7.8 7.4 11.4

-6.4 -23.4 12.8

15.3 15.5 14.2

19.5 16.8 19.4

6.2 6.9 5.6

33.8 5.5 12.3

-0.7 13.1 27.5

1ST HALF 1977 2ND HALF 1977

8.7 9.8

7.4 7.1

10.4 11.8

11.9 10.0

15.3 6.4

8.9 13.3

0.6 24.9

12.9 14.5

16.6 20.6

6.4 6.5

2.7 21.6

25.6 26.1

1ST HALF 1978

9.6

7.7

11.7

6.9

2.1

11.1

43.5

7.5

17.4

6.3

12.9

47.1

1977

10.7

5.4

14.5

7.7

1.5

13.5

64.0

11.6

18.8

6.4

20.3

48.1

1ST QTR. 1978 2ND QTR. 1978 3RD QTR. 1978 QUARTER LY-A V:

9.5 9.3 10.3

3.8 12.0 8.9

12.3 9.1 10.4

7.4 6.8 11.2

2.6 1.3 4.5

11.5 11.4 16.8

43.2 22.9 6.5

6.9 7.3 13.9

17.9 14.7 12.6

6.3 5.7 5.1

15.1 6.5 -14.3

40.4 44.1 10..

4TH QTR.

1977

10.3

6.4

13.0

8.5

5.4

11.6

44.9

13.9

20.0

5.9

26.4

32.0

IST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD QTR.

1978 1978 1978

10.5 8.4 9.6

5.0 10.3 7.0

12.8 10.1 9.5

7.3 6.4 9.9

2.6 1.6 1.3

11.4 10.5 17.2

50.0 32.8 7.5

8.1 6.8 11.4

16.2 15.8 12.8

6.3 6.2 5.1

17.9 7.6 -11.4

46.a 42.5 21.9

1977--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

11.2 11.1 8.3 12.3

7.8 10.2 -1.0 6.8

9.2 13.7 18.5 10.9

8.9 8.8 9.5 4.6

10.0 4.4 -1.1 1.1

7.9 13.3 18.0 8.7

11.4 48.9 81.3 52.5

16.6 14.0 11.0 9.5

24.7 21.5 15.8 18.2

4.8 6.4 6.3 6.3

23.5 31.2 24.0 4.7

6.4 29.i 57.9 51.3

1976--JAN. FEB.

10.8 9.4 8.0 6.6 11.8 9.1 6.5 9.0 15.3

11.0 -2.4 2.9 23.8 5.6 6.5 4.6 8.7 13.2

12.3 13.3 10.8 7.5 13.6 6.1 10.2 7.5 13.4

8.4 7.6 6.0 5.3 6.7 8.2 10.3 11.5 11.4

6.0 1.1 0.5 3.3 2.2 -1.6 -4.3 8.1 9.7

10.0 13.2 10.8 6.5 11.5 16.0 22.5 14.2 13.1

37.3 46.8 39.3 20.5 53.2 -5.5 9.7 -15.1 25.0

7.8 6.2 6.6 6.6 6.8 8.3 11.4 14.1 15.7

17.9 15.2 20.0 14.7 12.1 16.8 11.8 11.7 13.9

6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 4.6 6.1 3.0 6.0

32.9 13.7 -1.5 13.6 11.9 -5.9 -26.7 -7.6 -9.2

1975 1976 1977 2/ SEMI-ANNUALLY:

QUARTERLY: 41H QTR.

MONTHLY:

MAAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT.P

GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 2/ BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. P - PRELIMINARY. 1/

END OF CRRENT

MON H AND END OF

43.5 40.2 3.63 48.1 38.0 41.7 20.1 1.5 9.1

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

OCT.

13,

1978

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time Savings and Deposits Time and Savings DepositsSavings Currency Demand Cure Deposits

Period

Other Than CD's

Total 3

CD's

Mutual Bank S&L

Credit Union Savings Shares Bonds

ShortTerm . Gov't Sec Se1c 11

Other Private Shortterm Assets 12

Total NonGov Deposit Funds Demand 3/ Depos it s A/

Total 4

Savings 5

Other 6

Shares 8

369.6 427.0 471.0

160.5 201.9 219.6

209.1 225.1 251.5

81.3 62.7 74.0

394.8 456.9 519.8

33.0 39.1 46.8

61.2 71.9 76.6

66.9

43.0 47.1 63.4

34.4

66.e 76.7

51.0 62.C

8.i 11.2 11.4

II 9

ANNUALLY: 73.7 80.7 88.6

221.5 249.9

450.9 489.7 545.0

86.3

246.6

525.9

462.1

218.8

243.3

63.b

505.1

44.7

75.4

7.0

56.6

57.5

10.1

87.1 87.7 88.6

248.7 248.5 249.9

531.9 540.1 545.0

465.5 469.2 471.0

219.6 219.4 219.6

246.0 249.7 251.

66.4 70.9 74.0

511.0 515.7 519.8

45.5 46.1 46.8

75.8 76.2 76.6

74.9 76.4 76.7

58.0 60. b 63,4

5d.l 62.0

10.3 6.7 11.4

1978--JAN. FEB. MAR.

89.4 90.1 90.7

252.2 251.7 252.3

550.6 556.7 561.7

474.3 477.3 479.7

220.7 220.9 221.0

253.6 256.4 258.7

76.3 79.4 82.0

523.2 525.9 526.e

47.5 46.1 48.9

77.0 77.4 77.8

78.8 79.7 79.6

65.7 67.9 69.6

65.3 66.6 67.0

9.' 7.5 7.9

APR. MAY JUNE

91.2 92.1 92.8

257.3 258.5 259.9

565.2 571.6 574.5

481.8 484.5 487.8

221.6 222.0 221.7

260.1 262.6 266.1

83.4 81.1 86.7

531.7 534.7 538.4

49.5 50.0 50.7

78.2 78.6 78.9

80.5 81.3 80.9

72.6 74.9 77.5

66.1 68.2 69.2

8.3 7.3

JULY AUG. SEPT.P

93.3 94.0 95.2

260.9

579.4 583.0 589.5

492.0 496.7 501.4

220.9 222.4 224.2

271.1 274.3 277.3

87.4 86.3 88.1

543.5

51.2 51.7 52.3

79.3 79.5 79.9

79.1 78.6 78.0

76.8 7&.9 79.5

69.2

9 16 23 30

93.6 93.9 94.2 94.4

262.8 263.5 263.2 261.1

581.6

582.3 583.6 S85.3

495.3 496.3 497.5 498.7

221.4 222.2 222.9 223.2

273.8 274.1 274.6 275.5

86.3 86.0 86.1 86.6

72.0 69.4 71.3 72.9

13.8 14.4 15.1

6 13 20 27P

95.1 95.0 95.1 95.4

266.3 265.5 266.0 266.4

587.4 589.8 590.6 589.8

499.9 501.2 501.5 502.3

223.7 224.1 224.2

276.2 277.1 277.4 278.1

87.5 88.6 89.1 87.5

70.0 70.7 74.1 75.5

14.5 14 .2 16.4 16.5

95.6

264.3

591.1

504.1

224.3

279.8

87.0

1975 1976 1977

232.8

MONTHLY: 1977--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

262.8 265.7

549.9

557.1

60.1

71.3 73.3

11.3 14.2 14.9 15.7

WEEKLY: 1978-AUG.

SEPT.

OCT.

1/ 2/ 3/

4/ P -

224.1

ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENI MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. INCLUDES PRIVATE DOMESTIL NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS' HOLDINGS OF COMMERCIAL PAPER, BANKERS ACCEPTANCES, SkCURITV RP'S AND MONEY MARKFT MUTUAL FUND SHARES. BORROWINGS BY BANKS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SECuRITIES SOLD UNDER AGREEMENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FuREIGN bRANCHES (EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS), LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY

16.0

16.2

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1978, October 16). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19781017

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19781017,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1978},
  month = {Oct},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19781017},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}