bluebooks · February 5, 1979

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC

February 2, 1979

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC

February 2, 1979

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1)

M-1 is estimated to have declined at a 5 per cent annual

rate in January, and at a 1½ per cent annual rate over the DecemberJanuary period, considerably below the range specified by the FOMC at its December meeting,1/ as demand deposits have weakened much more than anticipated.

Over the two months, shifting of funds from

demand deposits into Automatic Transfer Service (ATS) savings accounts and NOW accounts in New York State reduced M-1 growth by about 3 percentage points.

In addition to the impact of ATS and

NOW's, and the usual lagged effect of higher interest rates, demand deposits may be declining as a result of greatly increased public awareness of options for holding precautionary and transactions balances in various interest-bearing forms in the wake of recent publicity associated with ATS and similar accounts.

These figures do not incorporate the benchmark revisions based on recently available June 1978 Call Report data for nonmember banks; the revised aggregates will be published on February 8. As shown in Appendix III, the benchmark revision was negligible for M-1; however, the benchmark revision increased M-2 growth by 0.5 per cent, with most of the increase occurring in the second half of the year. The revision in the aggregates for the June benchmark will also incorporate revised seasonal factors. All tables on subsequent pages of the Bluebook (with the exception of the first two tables following the appendices) are based on the revised series.

In December and January, for example, money market funds--both open- and closed-end--increased by about $2.5 billion per month on average, following average increases of about $950 million a month in the preceding two months.

-2-

Comparison of FOMC Policy Ranges for December-January to Latest Staff Estimates Ranges

Latest Estimates

M-1

2 to 6

-1.5

M-2

5 to 9½

0.1

Federal funds rate (per cent per annum)

9¾ to 10½

Avg. for statement week ending Dec. 27 10.25 Jan. 3 10.59 10 9.97 17 10.05 24 10.05 31 10.12

(2) M-2 is estimated to have shown virtually no growth over December and January, and it, too, was much weaker than the low end of the range set by the FOMC in December.

Growth in the interest-bearing

component of M-2 slowed over the past two months, with outstanding deposits subject to fixed rate ceilings actually declining in continuing adjustment to higher market rates.

Net inflows of deposits to

savings and loan associations in December-January were only a shade below the October-November pace, as these institutions continued aggressively to offer money market certificates (MMC's).

Deposit

inflows to mutual savings banks were at a considerably reduced pace over the past two months. (3) With the total inflows of funds to deposit accounts subject to interest rate ceilings remaining weak in December and January, banks issued additional large time deposits--some of which are included in M-2--and probably increased their RP's with nonbank

investors.

Growth in bank credit slowed to only a 1 per cent annual

rate in December, following rapid expansion in the two preceding months, but partial data for large banks suggest that growth in bank credit has picked up in January. (4)

Following the December FOMC meeting, the Account Manage-

ment immediately raised its Federal funds rate objective from 9-7/8 per cent to 10 per cent or a bit higher.

Funds generally traded at

rates significantly above this level in the latter part of December and early January, however, as the Desk encountered difficulties in supplying reserves because of a shortage of readily available collateral.

On December 29 and on January 12, the FOMC

decided

that, despite the relatively weak growth of the aggregates, the Desk should continue to seek a funds rate of 10 per cent or a bit higher, and the funds rate has remained around this level since early January. (5)

With the funds rate of about 10 per cent, reserves of

the banking system changed little on balance over the December-January period. Nonborrowed reserves contracted at about a 1½ per cent annual rate, and total reserves increased at a 2¾ per cent rate; over the first three quarters of 1978, when deposit growth had been strong, these aggregates had grown at 7 to 8 per cent annual rates.

Member bank

borrowings rose from $700 million in November to about $1 billion in January, as the spread of the funds rate over the discount rate widened slightly.

With growth of currency remaining strong, the

monetary base continued to rise about a 9 per cent annual rate

over the past two months on average, but the rate of growth diminished in January. (6)

After coming under renewed selling pressure in the

last half of December, the foreign exchange value of the dollar steadied in early January, and has risen considerably in recent days. In early February, the weighted average dollar exchange rate was about 8

per cent above its late October level and more than 2 per cent

above its level at the time of the December FOMC meeting.

Toward the end of the

period, the United States purchased $2 billion equivalent of foreign currencies, net, virtually all of which was used to repay swap debt. (7) While interest rates rose somewhat further in the weeks immediately following the December FOMC meeting, these increases have been generally more than offset by declines in January.

Interest

rates on short-term private obligations, in particular, have fallen considerably on balance since the December meeting--generally about 40 to 50 basis points.1/ Mortgage yields have edged up slightly,

The largest declines in short-term yields were those on CD's which, despite large offerings of these instruments, fell 60 basis points in the primary market since the December FOMC meeting. CD

rates had increased sharply just before the meeting and the recent declines bring them into more characteristic alignment with other short-term rates. With their costs of funds falling, two large banks have lowered their prime lending rate 1/4 of a point to 11.50 per cent.

but bond yields have dropped 10 to 20 basis points.

in market interest rates reflected

The decline

market perceptions of a

reduced likelihood of a further tightening of monetary policy in light of the recent performance of the dollar in exchange markets, the slow growth of the monetary aggregates, and the recent modest growth of total business credit demands.

An exception to the general

pattern of declining market rates has been the behavior of yields on short-dated (3 months or less) Treasury bills, which have changed little on balance since the December meeting.

These yields did not

decline in association with falling private rates owing to large Federal Reserve sales of bills, the continuation of larger Treasury auctions of 3-month bills since November, and, after mid-January, a shift by foreign official institutions from purchases to sales of bills. (8) The table on the next page shows percentage annual rates of change in related monetary and financial flows over various time periods.

1978

Past Twelve Months Jan.'79 over Jan.'78

Past Six Months Jan.'79 over June '78

Nonborrowed reserves

6.9

3.8

3.6

-3.7

Total reserves

6.9

5.0

2.0

0.3

7.5

9.2

8.6

8.5

8.3

6.9

7.3

3.1

-1.8

-5.0

M-l+ (M-l plus savings deposits at commercial banks, NOW accounts at banks and thrift institutions, credit union share draft accounts, and demand deposits at mutual savings banks). 11.0

5.3

1.0

-4.6

-7.6

M-2 (M-l plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's)

10.4

8.5

6.3

2.1

-1.1

M-3 (M-2 plus deposits at thrift institutions)

12.2

9.4

8.4

5.4

3.7

1976 & 1977 Average

Monetary base

Past Three Months Jan.'79

over Oct.'78

Past Months Jan.'79 over Dec.'78

Concepts of Money M-1 (Currency plus demand deposits) 1/

M-4 (M-2 plus CD's)

8.6

10.5

8.4

6.9

3.8

M-5 (M-3 plus CD's)

11.0

10.5

9.6

8.1

6.3

Bank Credit Loans and investments of all commercial banks 2/ Month-end basis

11.3

Monthly average

11.4

10.9 -3/

5.95/

n.a.

11.13/

57.4 7.4;1/

n.a.

Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper

-0.5

0.2

1.9

2.1

4.0

1.2

13/ 1.2-

1. 7-

2.3

4.0 5

n.a.

1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. 3/ Dec. '78 over Dec. '77. 4/ Dec. '78 over June '78. 5/ Dec. '78 over Sept:.'78. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on totalL loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or Wednesday statement date figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments: long-run (9)

Alternative longer-run growth ranges for the monetary

aggregates and bank credit over the one-year QIV '78 to QIV '79 period are shown in the table below for Committee consideration. Alt. A

Alt. B

M-1

2½ to 5½

1½ to 4½

M-2

5 to 7½

M-3

6½ to 9

Bank Credit 8 to 11 (10)

4½ to 7 6 to 8½ 7½ to 10½

Alt. C ½

Current Range

to 3½

2 to 6

4 to 6½

6½ to 9

5½ to 8

7½ to 10

8½ to 11½

7 to 10

Alternative B is based on the FOMC's current

expectation that M-1 growth over the QIII

'78 to QIII

'79 period

would be around the upper limit of a 4 to 6½ per cent range in the absence of new transactions accounts, such as ATS.

At its October

meeting, the Committee expected that M-1 growth over the longer-run

would be in a 2 to 6 per cent range, which allows for a potential downward effect on M-1 from ATS of 1/2 to 4-1/2 percentage points. On the basis of experience gained with ATS and NOW accounts in New York since that time, the staff believes that it is now reasonable to assume that growth in such accounts will reduce M-1 growth over the QIV'78 to QIV '79 period from what it other1/ Given wise would have been by 3 to 3-1/2 percentage points. that assumption, alternative B proposes a 1-1/2 to 4-1/2 per cent range for M-1; this range assumes--unlike recent M-1 ranges--that the more likely growth of M-1 is at the mid-point rather than near

1/ Including a small allowance for introduction of POA accounts at S&L's this spring.

the upper end.1/ The range is narrower than that adopted in October but remains a little wider than earlier M-1 ranges to reflect some continued uncertainty about ATS effects. more and less expansive, respectively.

Alternatives A and C are Proposed ranges for the

broader aggregates have been lowered, for reasons discussed in paragraphs

(13) and (14) below. (11)

Expansion of nominal GNP over the longer-run policy

period, while projected to moderate, is still expected to be around 10 per cent, and M-1 growth is likely to resume as the public brings its cash balances back into line with growing transactions needs. However, the staff expects that the demand for M-1 will not be so strong over the year, on average, as to require a significant change in the prevailing Federal funds rate if M-1 growth at the midpoint of the alternative B range is to be achieved over the year 1979.

With

nominal GNP projected to expand more rapidly in the first half of 1979 than in the second, short-term rates could edge higher over the next few months and then recede later in the year.

Alternative C, on the

other hand, would probably involve an increase in the funds rate from current levels to nearly 11 per cent in the course of the year.

By contrast,

alternative A would imply a reduction in the funds rate, reaching year-end levels about ¾ of a percentage point below the current level. The staff projection of the quarterly pattern of the funds rate for each alternative is shown in Appendix I.

A return to this more usual interpretation of the M-1 range may be a desirable simplification as reporting under the Humphrey-Hawkins Act is initiated. The 3 per cent midpoint of this range,plus allowance for a 3 to 3½ per cent effect on M-1 from ATS and similar accounts, yields the 6¼ per cent rate of growth that has been the FOMC's

basic assumption.

(12)

The specifications imply further rapid increase

in the velocity of M-1, even abstracting from ATS effects, as shown in Appendix II.

The recent weakness in M-1 at a time of strong economic

growth is considerably larger than can be explained by standard econometric specifications of the relationship between interest rates and money demand and by the shift of demand balances to ATS and NOW accounts.

The shortfall in money demand apparently reflects a

wider adoption and more intensive use of techniques to economize on cash, induced in part by the sustained high interest rate levels, and the staff has assumed that a downward shift in money demand is likely to continue over 1979.

The shift is projected to reduce M-1

growth (and thus increase V-l) by about 2 percentage points over the longer-run policy period. (13)

Under alternative B, M-2 growth for the year ahead

is expected to be in a 4½ to 7 per cent range and M-3 growth in a 6 to 8½ per cent range, 2½ percentage points lower, respectively, than their current longer-run ranges for the QIII '78 to QIII '79 period.

This reduction reflects the slower rate of growth in the

time and savings deposit component of these two aggregates that is now expected on average over the course of the year, given recent experience.

The public has been diverting larger amounts of funds

than expected from deposits subject to fixed ceiling rates to market instruments.

Our projections assume a pick-up in growth of such

deposits, but not to the pace earlier expected.

Growth of the

-10broader monetary aggregates is, of course, slower under alternative C and more rapid under alternative A. (14)

The range for bank credit growth for alternative B

has been reduced to 7½ to 10

per cent--1 percentage point lower than

its current range, reflecting the slowing of economic activity, the sustained higher level of interest rates, and the cumulative reduction in bank liquidity.

To sustain such credit growth in the

face of slower inflows of demand and consumer-type time and savings deposits, banks would have to rely increasingly on large negotiable time deposits, nondeposit borrowings, including Eurodollars, and to reduce further their holdings of liquid assets.

Thrifts are also

likely to have to rely on FHLB and other borrowings, as well as reductions in their liquidity position, to fund their mortgage lending. Prospective developments: short-run (15)

Three alternative short-run specifications for the

monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate are presented below for Committee consideration.

Alternative I calls for a reduction

in the Federal funds rate by ½ percentage point from the current level; such a decline over the intermeeting period would be most consistent with the alternative A longer-run range.

Alternative II

calls for no change in the current 9¾ to 10½ per cent funds rate range, with a midpoint near the present Desk objective.

This alternative

would be consistent with both the alternative B and C longer-run ranges.

Alternative III, which calls for increases in the funds

rate to around the midpoint of a 10¼ to 11 per cent range, is most

-11consistent with longer-run alternative C.

(More detailed and

longer-run data are shown in tables on pages 12 and 13). Alt. I

Alt. II

Alt. III

M-1

5 to 10

4½ to 9½

4 to 9

M-2

5½ to 9½

5 to 9

4½ to 8½

Ranges for Feb.-Mar.1/

Federal funds rate (Intermeeting period)

(16)

9¼ to 10

9¾ to 10½

10¼ to 11

In considering short-run alternatives, the FOMC may

wish to take into account the growth rates for the aggregates from the estimated January levels that would be required to reach levels in March and June that are implied by the longer-run ranges.

The

table on page 14 provides such information for longer-run alternative B.2/ As shown by the middle column of the table, M-1 would have to grow at a 8-1/4 per cent annual rate from January--and M-2 by a 10-1/4 per cent annual rate--to reach the level in March that is implied by growth along the midpoint path of the longer-run QIV '78 - QIV '79 range.

Growth for M-1 would have to be about 3 percentage points

lower to reach the low end of the alternative B range of growth, and 3 points higher to reach the upper end.

Over the five months

from January to June, M-1 would have to expand at a 5 per cent annual rate and M-2 at a 7

per cent annual rate to reach midpoint paths.

1/ Ranges for the forthcoming short-run policy period expressed as three-month growth ranges are shown in Appendix V for comparison purposes.

Similar information for alternatives A and C are shown in Appendix VI.

-12Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M-11 /

M-2

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1979

January February March

360.0 361.9 364.5

360.0 361.8 364.2

360.0 361.7 363.9

875.5 880.2 886.0

875.5 880.0 885.3

875.5 879.7 884.7

1978

QIV

361.4

873.8

1979

QI QII QIII QIV

362.1 368.0 371.8 374.7

362.0 367.0 369.4 372.2

361.9 366.1 367.3 368.6

880.6 896.6 912.4 929.7

880.3 894.9 908.6 924.2

880.0 893.5 905.6 919.1

6.3 8.6

6.0 8.0

5.7 7.3

6.4 7.9

6.2 7.2

5.8 6.8

0.8

0.7

0.6

3.1

3.0

2.8

QII

6.5

5.5

4.6

7.3

6.6

6.1

QIII

4.1

2.6

1.3

7.0

6.1

5.4

QIV

4.2

3.0

1.4

7.6

6.9

6.0

QIV '78-QII '79

3.7

3.1

2.6

5.2

4.8

4.5

QII '79-QIV '79

4.2

2.8

1.4

7.4

6.5

5.7

4.0

3.0

2.0

6.4

5.8

5.2

Growth Rates Monthly: 1979

February March

Quarterly Average: 1979

Semi-Annual:

Annual: QIV '78-QIV '79 I/

The staff has assumed that over the longer-run policy period from QIV '78 to QIV '79 M-l growth will be reduced 3 to 3 percentage points by ATS. In projecting GNP, monetary aggregates, and interest rates the staff has carried forward the assumption in most recent Bluebooks that M-l, in the absence of ATS, would increase at a 6% per cent annual rate over the longer-run. Thus, the observed growth of M-l is expected to be 3 per cent over the QIV '78 to QIV '79 period.

-13Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Bank Credit1 /

M-3 Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1979

January February March

1505.5 1515.5 1526.2

1505.5 1515.0 1525.0

1505.5 1514.5 1523.6

n.a. n.a. n.a.

1978

QIV

1493.5

967.2

1979

QI QII QIII QIV

1515.7 1547.0 1578.2 1611.4

1515.2 1543.5 1570.8 1600.5

1514.5 1540.4 1564.6 1590.7

988.0 1010.5 1034.0 1057.1

987.8 1009.7 1032.4 1055.2

987.5 1008.9 1030.8 1053.3

8.0 8.5

7.6 7.9

7.2 7.2

n.a. n.a.

5.9 8.3 8.1 8.4

5.8 7.5 7.1 7.6

5.6 6.8 6.3 6.7

8.6 9.1 9.3 8.9

8.5 8.9 9.0 8.8

8.4 8.7 8.7 8.7

7.2 8.3

6.7 7.4

6.3 6.5

9.0 9.2

8.8 9.0

8.6 8.8

7.9

7.2

6.5

9.3

9.1

8.9

Growth Rates Monthly: 1979

February March

Quarterly Average: 1979

QI QII QIII QIV

Semi-Annual: QIV '78-QII '79 QII '79--QIV '79 Annual: QIV '78-QIV '79

January 1979 bank credit data are not available, therefore, monthly bank credit estimates are not available.

-14-

Growth Rates from January Levels Required to Achieve Levels Implied by Alternative B Longer-run Ranges (Per cent annual rate) Achieve Level by:

Low End of Range

Midpoint of Range

High End of Range

M-1 March 1979 June 1979 1/ Quarter IV '79-

5.3 3.1 2.3

8.3 5.1 4.1

11.3 7.3 5.9

M-2 March 1979 June 1979 1/ Quarter IV '79(17)

7.8 5.8 5.2

10.2 7.6 6.6

The staff believes that if

12.8 9.3 8.2

the 13-1/4 per cent annual

rate of growth of nominal GNP projected for the current quarter develops, it will call forth a substantial increase in M-1 in February-March.

Under alternative II, M-1 is projected to increase

in a range centered on a 7 per cent annual rate, which would put M-1 just below the midpoint of the alternative B long-run path by March. Even such a resurgence in growth would bring the growth rate of M-1 for the first quarter (quarterly average basis) to only a 3/4 per cent annual rate, and would imply another substantial increase in V-1,

2/ at about a 12 per cent annual rate, as shown in Appendix II. (18)

Under alternative II,

M-2 is

expected to expand at

a 5 to 9 per cent annual rate range in February-March, considerably

This, of course, represents the end-point of the long-run policy period.

Adjusted for the retarding effects of ATS on M-1, increase would be 8 per cent annual rate.

the velocity

-15more rapidly than in the previous three months, but growth at the 7 per cent midpoint would be a little less than needed to bring M-2 up to the low end of the range specified under alternative B. The acceleration of this aggregate reflects the expected strengthening of both M-1 and the interest-bearing component of M-2, with much of the strength in the latter likely to result from a slowing of recent unusually rapid savings account withdrawals. (19)

At thrift institutions, the rate of deposit inflows

may edge off from the recent pace. money market certificates

Sizable net issuance of 6-month

(MMC's) is expected, as in recent months,

to account for all of the growth of S&L and MSB deposits, as these certificates continue to be marketed rather aggressively in response to relatively strong demand for mortgage loans and in order to compete with both other depository institutions and alternative financial instruments paying high market rates of interest.

With some moderation in total

thrift deposit inflows, and a continuing shift in the deposit mix at thrifts toward high cost

MMC's, mortgage markets conditions

are expected to tighten somewhat further in the intermeeting period. (20)

If Federal funds continue to trade at a rate of 10

per cent or slightly higher over the intermeeting period, as contemplated under alternative II, other short-term rates are also likely to remain about unchanged, as recent market rate declines appear to reflect full adjustment to the weak growth of the aggregates.

Business

-16short-term credit demands may strengthen a bit in coming weeks, and the Treasury is expected to offer a sizable block of cash management bills in early March.

But these short-term demands are likely to be

accommodated without significant upward pressure on rates unless a resurgence in growth of the monetary aggregates causes adjustments in market expectations about the future course of monetary policy. (21)

Yields on longer-term securities would also be expected

to remain at about current levels over the intermeeting period under alternative II.

Security offerings by corporations, state and local

governments, and the U.S. Treasury are expected to be moderate.

In its

mid-February refunding, the Treasury has announced that it intends to auction $2¼ billion and $2 billion of 8 and 29¾ year securities, respectively, in order to rollover maturing debt and raise about $1.25 billion of new money.

Following this operation, the Treasury

can raise the additional $10 billion of new cash needed by the end of the quarter through sale of cash management bills and routine offerings of short- and intermediate-term notes. (22)

The foreign exchange value of the dollar over coming

weeks may be sustained, under money market conditions implied by alternative II, as banks obtain more funds from abroad to meet relatively strong credit demands in a period of modest growth in domestic deposits.

The relatively high interest rates in the U.S. and

recent evidence of strength in the dollar may also encourage investment in the dollar-denominated assets by private market participants.

course, the behavior of the dollar on exchange markets will also depend

-17on a number of other factors, including future developments in the Middle East. (23)

Under alternative III, the Federal funds rate would

be expected to rise to the midpoint of a 10

to 11 per cent range.

Growth in M-1 would likely be in a 4 to 9 per cent and M-2 in 4 per cent annual rate range, respectively.

to 8

A tightening action at

this time is likely to come as a surprise to the market in light of the recent weakness in the aggregates.

As a result, market participants

might conclude that a further tightening could follow and thus a

comparatively sharp increase in short-term interest rates could occur. The higher level of money market rates would further encourage outflows of deposits subject to fixed rate ceilings, induce even more aggressive offerings of MMC's and large denomination time deposits, and foster a firming of bank lending terms--with the prime rate moving up to record levels of over 12 per cent.

The dollar would tend to

move higher in foreign exchange markets.

In bond markets, interest

rates would rise, but both the moderate volume of new security offerings and strengthened market expectations that inflation will be curbed would tend to limit such movements.

In the mortgage market,

however, rates would likely move significantly higher in response to reduced deposit inflows at thrifts and the further rise in the cost of their MMC's. (24) Alternative I involves a decline in the funds rate over the intermeeting period to the midpoint of a 9¼ to 10 per cent range.

In response to the reduction of the System's funds rate

-18target, short-term rates would decline further, and a sizable shortterm rally is likely to develop in bond markets, as investors come to believe that interest rates may have peaked.

At the same

time, the decline in interest rates--if not accompanied by indications of weakening economic activity--may lead to a significant drop in the foreign exchange value of the dollar if market participants become more concerned about the outlook for inflation in this country.

-19Directive language (25)

Given immediately below are suggested operational

paragraphs for the directive in the customary form.

(An alternative

formulation with money market emphasis is shown in paragraph (26)). In the short run, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that are broadly consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited above, while giving due regard to the program for supporting the foreign exchange value of the dollar, to developing conditions in domestic financial markets, and to uncertainties associated with the introduction of ATS.

Early in the period before the

next regular meeting, System open market operations are to be directed at attaining a weekly average Federal funds rate (I) (II) (III)

slightly below the current level. AT ABOUT THE CURRENT LEVEL. slightly above the current level.

Subsequently, operations shall be directed at maintaining the 9¾ to 10½] weekly average Federal funds rate within the range of [DEL: ____

TO ____ per cent.

In deciding on the specific objective

for the Federal funds rate the Manager shall be guided mainly by the relationship between the latest estimates of annual December-January]FEBRUARY-MARCH period rates of growth in the [DEL: of M-1 and M-2 and the following ranges of tolerance--2 to 6 TO

5-to-9] ____TO ____ per cent per cent for M-1 and [DEL:

for M-2. [DEL: If, giving approximatety equal weight

toM-1and M-2,

their rates of growthappear to be significantly above the

-20midpoints the of

shall be

indicated ranges, the

objective for the funds rate

raised in an orderly fashion within its range,if their

rates

ofgrowth appear tobe

approaching the 1ower

limits of the

indicatedranges, the funds rate sha11 be lowered in an orderly fashion IF,

within itsrange.]

WITH APPROXIMATELY EQUAL WEIGHT GIVEN TO M-1 AND M-2,

THEIR

RATES OF GROWTH APPEAR TO BE Monetary aggregates emphasis SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE OR BELOW THE MIDPOINTS Money market emphasis CLOSE TO OR BEYOND THE UPPER OR LOWER LIMITS OF THE INDICATED RANGES,

THE OBJECTIVE FOR THE FUNDS RATE IS TO BE

RAISED OR LOWERED IN AN ORDERLY FASHION WITHIN ITS RANGE. If the rates of growth in the aggregates appear to be outside the limits] ABOVE THE UPPER LIMIT OR BELOW THE falling[DEL: LOWER LIMIT of the indicated ranges at a time when the objective for the funds rate has already been moved to the corresponding limit of its range, the Manager will promptly notify the Chairman, who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. (26)

In view of uncertainties about interpretation of the

aggregates, presented below is an alternative formulation of the operational paragraphs with primary emphasis on money market conditions. The role of the aggregates in this formulation is through a proviso clause, which permits the funds rate to move up if growth of the

-21aggregates is excessively strong. In the short run, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that are broadly consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited above, while giving due regard to the program for supporting the foreign exchange value of the dollar, to developing conditions in domestic financial markets, and to uncertainties associated with the introduction of ATS.

In the period before the next regular

meeting, System open market operations are to be directed at attaining a weekly average Federal funds rate (A) at about the current level of (B) slightly above the current level, provided that over the February-March period the annual rates of growth of M-1 and M-2, given approximately equal weight, appear to be no higher than ____ per cent and ____ per cent, respectively. If growth of M-1 and M-2 for the 2-month period appears to be in excess of the indicated limits, the objective for the Federal funds rate is to be raised in an orderly fashion up to a maximum of ____ per cent. If the rates of growth in the aggregates appear to be falling above the indicated limits at a time when the objective for the funds rate has already been moved to its limit, the Manager will promptly notify the Chairman, who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee.

Chart 1

Recently Established M-1 Growth Ranges and Actual M-1

Billions of dollars 8%

Projection ---

375

365

Q3 '78-03 '79

2 . . ...--

355 3-Q2 '79

365

,4% ----

355

365

Q1 '78-Q1 '79 355

365

355 SQ4 '77-Q4 '78 -- 4%

345

335

III 1977

I 1978

1979

325

Chart 2

Recently Established M-2 Growth Ranges and Actual M-2

Billions of dollars 945 945

Projection --

-9%

-900 930 915

Q3'78-Q3'79 -

885 - 870 -

_ 855

Q2'78-Q2'79 0,

- 870 855

885 870 855 --870 885 88 5

S-S-

'77-Q4'78.

SQ4 F

-855

840

- 825

810

S810

795

- 795 I 1977

I 1978

9 I 1979

i I

780

Chart 3

Recently Established M-3 Growth Ranges And Actual M-3

Billions of dollars 1640 Projection

/10%4

- 1610

Q3 '78-Q3 '79 So

1580

07%%

S-1550 -1520 1490 1 0

~ --1550

Q2 '78-Q2 '79

1520

1370-

.,.

1490

10%1550

178-Q

1340-

1520

1310 _

1490

1370

"1550

1340-

1310-

1520 1490

7%%

1370

1460

1430

S04 '77-Q4 '78 1340 r

1310 -

1400

1370 -

- 1370

1340 -/

- 1340

1310

I 1977

I 1978

I I

I 19 7I 9 1979

1 I

1310

Chart 4

Recently Established Bank Credit Growth Ranges and Actual Bank Credit

Billions of dollars

/10

Q3 '78-Q3'79

Projection

1055

1035

S-

1015

S-

'975

S^11

995

S-

955

Q2 '78-Q2 '79 a

'935

975 S 95 5 935

875 855 -

710

975

tQ1 '78-01 '79

S855 835

955

875 855

975

955

875-

935

855 -

;915

835

, o 5

0Q4 '77-Q4 '78

835 -

895

875

855

f855

835

I835

APPENDIX I

Projected Federal Funds Rate

Alt. A 1979--QI

QII QIII QIV

Alt. B

Alt. C

9-5/8 to 10-1/8

10 to 10-1/2

10-1/4 to 10-3/4

9-1/4 to 10

10 to 10-3/4

10-1/4 to 11

8-7/8 to 9-7/8

9-3/4 to 10-3/4

10-3/8 to 11-3/8

8-7/8 to 9-7/8

9-1/2 to 10-1/2

10-3/8 to 11-3/8

APPENDIX II

Implied Velocity Growth Rates

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

V-1 (GNP/M-1) 1978--III IV

1.2 9.5

1979--I II III IV

12.2 3.6 4.8 5.7

(8.5) (8.7

(0.0 (1.6 (3.2

1.2 9.5 k8.5) 12.0 (8.6 3.9 (0.3 5.3 (2.1

5.6 (3.0

1.2

9.5 (8.5) 12.1 (8.6) 4.4 (0.8) 5.8 (2.5) 6.1 (3.4)

V-2 (GNP/M-2) 1978--III IV

-0.6 6.1

1979--I II III IV

9.8 2.8 2.0 2.3

Note:

-0.6 6.1

Figures in parentheses reflect V-l without ATS.

-0.6 6.1 9.8 2.9 1.7 1.4

APPENDIX III Revisions in the Monetary Aggregates

Benchmark adjustments for domestic nonmember banks and revised seasonal factors have been incorporated into the money stock series and related data.

The benchmark adjustments are based on the June 1978 call

report and go back to March 1978.

Seasonal factors have been revised to

incorporate an additional year of data and adjustments resulting from the Board staff's annual review of these factors.

Growth rates for the revised

M-1 and M-2 in 1978 are 7.3 and 8.5 per cent, respectively. about unchanged for the year, but M-2 growth was raised

M-1 growth was

percentage point.

The impact of benchmark and seasonal factor changes on monthly, quarterly, and annual M-1 and M-2 growth rates for 1978 are shown in Tables III-1 and 111-2. The benchmark adjustments are based on data for the universe of domestic nonmember banks for June 1978.

The adjustments added $100 million

to the level of M-1 in June 1978 and about the same amount at the end of 1978.

The level of M-2 was raised by $2.0 billion in June 1978 and by $4.4

billion at the end of the year.

As shown in column 4 of Tables III-1 and

III-2, the benchmark adjustment had minimal impact on M-1 growth but added 0.5 percentage point to M-2 (QIV'77 to QIV'78). Impacts of seasonal factor revisions, shown in the last column of Tables III-1 and III-2, were

minor.

April M-1 growth was lowered

about 3-1/4 percentage points and November growth was raised by about the same amount.

Impacts on M-2 growth rates were generally about one-third

the effect on M-1.

Table III-1 Comparison of Old and Revised M-1 Growth Rates (Per cent annual rate)

Old Year

Series

1978

Revised Series

Difference

2/ Difference due to: / Seasonal Benchmark Factors

0.1

0.4 -0.7 0.5

0 0.2 0.2 0

7.3

Quarters 1978 QI

QII QIII

QIV

6.2 9.9 7.6 4.5

6.6 9.2 8.1

4.4

-0.1

0.4 -0.9 0.3 -0.1

Months 1978 Jan Feb Mar

11.3 1.8 2.8

0 1.4 -1.1

Apr May June

19.6 7.2 7.5

16.4 9.7 6.2

-3.2 2.5 -1.3

0 0.7 -0.3

July Aug Sept

4.8 8.5 14.1

6.8 8.5 13.8

2.0 0 -0.3

0.6 -0.4 -0.3

3.7 -4.6

1.7 -2.0 0.7 -5.0

-2.0 2.6 -0.3 0

0.3 -0.4 0 0

Oct Nov Dec 1979 Jan

11 2/

0 1.4 -1.1

11.3 0.4 3.9

2.0 -5.0

QIV 1977 average to QIV 1978 average. In percentage points.

-3.2 1.8 -1.0

-2.3 3.0 -0.3 0

Table

III-2

Comparison of Old and Revised M-2 Growth Rates (Per cent annual rates)

2/ Old Series

Year 1978-1

Revised Series

Difference

Difference due to:/ Seasonal Benchmark Factors

8.0

8.5

0.5

6.9 7.9 8.9 7.5

7.0

0.1 0.5 1.0 0.3

0 0.6 0.9 0.4

9.5

9.8

4.7

5.0 4.7

Quarters 1978 QI QII QIII

QIV

8.4 9.9

7.7

0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1

Months 1978 Jan Feb Mar

Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1979 Jan

5.1 11.2 7.1 7.8

11.2 9.2

8.0 10.4

12.5 7.0

4.3 1.5

0.3 0.3 -0.4

0.3 0.3

-0.4

8.5

0 2.1 0.7

0.6 1.3 1.0

-0.6 0.8 -0.3

8.7 11.6 13.0

0.7 1.2 0.5

1.1 0.2 0.5

-0.4 1.0 0

6.5 4.7 2.2

-0.5 0.4 0.7

0.3 0.5 0.6

-0.8 -0.1 0.1

-1.8

QIV 1977 average to QIV 1978 average. In percentage points.

0.7

0.3

Appendix Table IV-1 MONEY STOCK--M-1 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)1 Base Period

Ending Period

1975

741V

1978

751V

761

7611

76III

761V

771

7711

77111

77IV

781

7811

78111

2.0

5.1

6.7

7.4

4.6

5.4

5.2

3.0

4.6

5.3

5.0

3.9

4.7

III

4.9

5.5

5.4

4.8

5.6

6.6

4.8

5.3

5.2

4.6

5.1

5.4

4.2

5.2

5.6

5.2

5.8

6.1

5.9

7.7

5.4

5.9

5,6

6.1

6.5

7.7

7.6

5.7

6.1

5.9

6.4

6.7

6.8

7.6

III IV

6.0

6.4

6.3

6.7

7.1

7.2

8.0

8.1

8.3

8.9

6.1

6.5

6.4

6.9

7.2

7.3

7.9

8.0

8.1

8.3

7.6

6.1

6.5

6.6

6.5

6,8

7.1

7.2

7.7

7.8

7.2

6.8

6.4

6.7

6.8

6,7

7.1

7.4

7.5

8.0

8.1

8,2

8.0

8.2

6.5

6.8

6.9

7.2

7.5

7.6

8.0

8.1

8.2

8.1

8.2 9.0

$.4

6.4

6.7

7.0

7.2

7.3

7.6

7.3

7.3 7.4

6.4

4.4

Alt. At, Alt.

5.9

6.1

6.0

6.2

6.3

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.1

5.8

5.6 5.4

4.8

4.1

5.7

5.9

5.8

6.0

6.1

6.0

6.2

6.0

5.9

5.7

5.4

5.1 4.9

4.1

3.3

Alt.

5.5

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.7

5.9

5.7

5.5

5.3

4.9

4.6

3.4

2.5

1 III

75111

5.9

1979

7511

3.9 IV II

1977

751

9.6

Based on quarterly average data.

4.3

781V

Appendix Table IV-2 MONEY STOCK--M-2 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)-

Ending Period 1975

1976

1977

1978

741V

7511

75111

75IV

761

7611

Base Period 76111 76IV 771

7711

6.6

8.2 9.8

III

8.9 10.1

10.4

8.4 9.1

8.7

6.9

8.9 9.5

9.4

8.9

11.0

9.2 9.7

9.7

9.4

10.6

10.3

III

9.2

9.6

9.3

10.2

9.8

9.2

9.7 10.1

10.2

10.1

10.9

11.2

13.2

9.9 10.3

10.3

11.0

11.2

12.3

11.4

9.8 10.2

10.2

10.7

10.8

11.3

10.4

9.3

III

9.9 10.2

10.2

10.7

10.6

10.7

11.1

10.4

9.9 10.5

9.7 10.0

10.0

10.4

10.3

10.5

9.5 9.8

9.8

9.7

10.0

9.9

9.8

9.5 9.7

9.7

9.6

9.9

9.7

III

9.5 9.7

9.7

9.9

9.4 9.6

9.6

9.5

9.7

1979

751

* * *

-" k

* * **

77111

77IV

781

7811

78111

9.8

9.3

8.1

9.9

9.3

8.8

8.6

7.6

9.7

9.2

8.7

8.6

8.0

8.7

9.8

9.7

9.8

9.3

9.0

8.9

8.6

9.5 10.3

9.6

9.2

8.9

8.8

8.4

9.0

9.1

7.9

78IV

*r~

III Alt.

8.8

8.9

8.8

8.6

8.2

8.0

7.8

7.5

7.4

7.5

7.3

6.7

6.4

Alt.

8.7

8.6

8.5

8.4

8.0

7.7

7.6

7.2

7.1

6.9

6.2

5.8

Alt.

8.6

8.4

8.3

8.2

7.8

7.5

7.3

7.0

6.8

6.5

5.7

5.2

Based on quarterly average data.

Appendix Table IV-3 MONEY STOCK--M-3 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)1 Ending Period 1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

74IV I

751

7511

75111

751V

761

7611

Base Period 771 7611I 761V

77II

77111

771V

781

7811

78111

781V

8.5

10.7 13.0

III

11.6

13.2

13.5

11.1 12.0

11.6

9.7

11.4 12.2

11.9

11.2

12.6

11.6 12.2

12.0

11.6

12.5

12.4

III

11.6

12,1

11.9

11.5

12.1

11.9

11.4

11.9 12.4

12.3

12.1

11.7

12.8

13.0

14.5

12.1 12.5

12.4

12.3

12.8

13.0

13.8

13.0

11.9 12.3

12.2

12.1

12.5

12.4

12.5

12.8

12.0

10.9

III

12.0 12.3

12.3

12.1

12.5

12.4

12.7

12.1

11.7

12.4

11.9 12.2

12.1

11.9

12.2

12.1

12.3

11.7

11.3

11.4

10.5

11.6 11.8

11.7

11.6

11.8

11.7

11.6

11.0

10.5

10.4

9.4

8.3

11,4 11.6

11.5

11.3

11.5

11.3

11,2

11.2

10.6

10.2

10.0

9.2

8.5

8.7

III

11.3 11.5

11.4

11.3

11.4

11.3

11.2

11.1

10.6

10.3

10.1

9.6

9.3

9.8

10,8

11.2 11.4 11.3 11.1 11.3 * ************

11.1

11.0

10.5

10.2

10,1

9.6

9.4

9.7

10.3

9.7

Alt. A

10.6 10.7

10.5

10.4

10.3

10,1

10.0

9.6

9.3

9.2

8.8

8.6

8.7

8.3

7.9

Alt. B

10.4 10.5

10.4

10.2

10.1

9.9

9.8

9.4

9.1

8,9

8.5

8.3

8.2

7.7

7.2

Alt, C

10.3 10,4

10.2

10.0

10.1

9.9

9.7

9.6

9.2

8.8

8.6

8.2

7.9

7,7

7.1

6.5

III

Based on quarterly average data.

APPENDIX V

Alternative Short-Run Growth Rates and Federal Fund Rate Ranges

The table below shows growth rate ranges for M-1 and M-2 expressed as the growth from the average of the three-months ending in December to the average of the three-month ending in March.

These ranges are based on

the same staff projections of February and March as appear in the present two month ranges shown in paragraph 15 averaging process--which, Bluebook,

of the text.

This three month

as explained in Appendix IV of the December

changes the growth rates,

narrows the ranges,

and reduces the

difference in growth rates between alternatives--was proposed for consideration by the Subcommittee on the Directive in its December 13, 1978, memorandum to the FOMC.

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Ranges for average of three-months ending in March over three months ending in

December M-1

-1/4 to 1-3/4

-1/2 to 1-1/2

M-2

2-1/4 to 3-3/4

2 to 3-1/2

9-1/4 to 10

9-3/4 to 10-1/2

Federal funds rate (Intermeeting period)

10-1/4 to 11

APPENDIX VI

Growth Rates from January Levels Required to Achieve Longer-run Targets Alternatives A and C (Per cent annual rate) Achieve Target by:

Low End

of Range

Alt. A Mid-Point

High End

of Range

M-1.

March 1979 June 1979 QIV 1979

7.3 4.5 3.5

10.3 6.5 5.3

13.3 8.7 7.1

M-2 March 1979 June 1979 QIV 1979

Achieve

Target by:

8.8 6.5 5.8

Low End of Range

11.3 8.3 7.3 Alt. C Mid-Point of Range

13.8 10.0 8.7

High End of Range

M-l March 1979 June 1979 QIV 1979

3.3 1.7

6.3 3.7

9.3 5.9

1.1

2.9

4.7

M-2

March 1979 June 1979 QIV 1979

6.9

5.1 4.6

9.3 6.9 6.1

11.8 8.6 7.6

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II FOMC

Table 1

MONETARY AGGREGATES

FEB.

2, 1979

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Broad Narrow (M2) 2 1

Period ___(Ml)

Total U.S. Govt.

Deposits 3

Total

/ 1

Time & Savings Deposits Other Than C's si g aIn 1 56 1

Nondeposit cDourcs

s 7

Ft 9

MONTHLY LEVELS-$5IL 1978--OCT.

362.0 360.6 361.2 (359.7)

NOV. 0EC. 1979--JAN. I

867.4 870. 872.0 (870.7)

21.2 21.7 17.1 13.0)

593.6 605.3 607.9 (612.11

505.4 509.9 510.0 (511.0)

8.R 10.4 4.5

9.1 10.6 12.

11.3

9.9 7.6 4.5

7,c B.9 7.'

10.1 9.5 12.5

6.4 10.0r 9.6

3.7 -4.6 ?.0 -5.0)

7.0 4.3 '.1

7.9 23.7 5.2 S 8.31

-1.51

0.1)

(

223.9 221.8 220.? 1218.3)

281.5 28A .0 290.6 (292.7)

1.3 4.5 -7.1

11.4 17.0 19.0

22.9

1.6 1.3 -0.0

10.5 17.3 IP.1

32.8 7.5 28.4

17.7 27.7 10.8 8.')

1.4 98.0 20.1 50.71

88.2 95.4

97.0 (101.1)

74.9 73.0 76,8

ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTFRLY 1978--2N1 QTR. 3PD qT9. 4TH OTD.

11.'; 9.7 0.3

6.8 7.4

6.5

40.4

QUARTERLv-AV 1978--2ND 3RD 4TH

QT,. nTR. OTR.

MONTHLY 197F--9CT. NOV. nEC. 1979--JAN. DFC.-JAN. WEEKLV

6.71

2.4 0.

-1.6 -11.3 -P.7

1.31)

-10.4) -9.5)

9.81)

35.81

LFVFLS-tBIL

1978-DEC. 1? S20 27 1479-JAN.

NDTF: 1/

9.1 10. 7

360.7 360.9 '61.2 3hO. 6

871.8 871.6 871.1

I 10 D 17 0

359.8

873.3 "70.2

?60. 7

872.0

24 P

357.6

R69.1

362.4

n4TA SHOWN IN DAPENTHESFS TN'LU)FS TPFAUQRY OREMNO I2INCL'JDES RORROWINGS FROM MENTS TO REPURCHASE, ANO (EUR'qnl.LA BRDROWINS),

17.0

607.4 607.9

19.3 If).a 1q.3 ".?3

6h08.1

17.4 11.2 13.4 14.1

608.4 609.8 612.1 613.9

607.2

511.2 510.8 510.4 510.5 510.4 511.3 511.6

290.3

220.8 220.7 220.1 720.0

290.1

219.8 219.5 ?18.3 217.7

291.0 290.9 292.9 293.9

290.3 290.5

96.3 97.1 97.7 6. 7

77.0 77.7 76.9 75.6

97.6 99.4 100.8 102.3

ARE CURAENT PROJECTIONS. P - PRELII4NArY OFPOSITS rT COMMFRCIAL BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVF RANKS AND TREASURY NOTE SALANCES. OTHEP THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SECURITIES SOLD UNDEP rTHER LIABILTTIES FOR BOROWED MONEY, PLUS ;,qSS LIABILITIES TP OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES LOANS SnL5 TO AFFILTITFS, LOAN RoS, AND OTHFR MINOR ITEMS.

AGREE-

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 2

BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1979

REQUIRED RESERVES

BANK RESERVES Period

FEB. 2,

Total Reserves

Nonborrowed Reserves

Monetary Base

Total Required

Private Demand

Total Time Deposits

Gov't. and Interbank

140,782 141,46? 142,65? (143,602)

41,261 41,018 41,280 (41,196)

23,059 22,705 22,670 (22,677)

MONTHLY LEVELS-tMILLIONS ........................ 41,434 41,251 4L,I12 141,440)

1978--0CT. Nnv. DFC. 1979--JAN. DERCFNT ANNUAL

40,156 40,549 40,644 (40,438)

16,618 16,841 17,019 (17,032)

(

1,584 1,472 1,590 1,496)

GRnWTH

QIJARTFRLY QTP. 978--2N3 3D QTP, 4TH QTR,

11.5 4.6 3.'

3.7 5.0 5.3

10.4 8.5 8.3

11.7 4.4 2.9

13.1 8.3 -3.1

10.1 4.4 6.7

6.6 R.2 ?.

1.1 6.?

5.4

8.1 9.0 8.7

7.? 8.2 2.8

5.0 9.5 3.1

11.5 6.6 4.2

(

9.9 5.q 10.1 8.0)

(

R.3 -7.1 7.7 -2.4)

9.1)

2.6)

QU6RTERLY-AV 197A--2F!9 QTP. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTP. MnNTRLY 7.

q197--OCT. NOV. WC. 1979--JAM.

(

.3 7.0 -?.1)

(

1.3 11.7 2.9 -6.1)

(

2.71

(

-1.6)

DFC.-JAN.

-8.7 16.1 12.7 0.9)

11.2 -18.4 -1.9 0.4) ( (

-0.71

6.8)

WFFKLY LEVELS-t4ILLITNS

NnTF:

q178-9FC.

6 13 20 77

41 ,57 42,069 41,379 40,670

40n,59 41,479 40,812 30,266

14 2,24h 142,855 142,279 142,173

41230 41,917 41,142 430,74

22,664 22,63? 22,759 22,623

17,029 16,998 17,012 17,052

1,537 2,288 1,370 1,058

1979-JAN.

3 In 17 24 31

42,162 40,539 42,164 41,134 41,614

40,979 1 39 854 41,267 40,211 40,197

144,395 142,639 144,155 143 358 141,917

41,436 40,611 41,702 41,129 41,238

22,675 22,Qt 22,866 22537 22,717

16,995 16t 86 16,966 17,053 17,141

1,766 1,030 1,869 t,545 1,381

DESFRVF SERIFS HAVE BEEN A4JUSTFD TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PAPENTHESFS APF CUIRRFNT PROJFCTIONS.

ASSOCIATFD WITH CHANGES

RFSEPVF

REOUIREMENT

RATIO.

TABLE 3 1/ NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES($ million, not seasonally adjusted)

Treasury Treasury Change 2J 1972

1978--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr.

I II III IV

1978--July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

1 8 15

Dec.

1979--Jan,

LEVEL-Jan, f/ 2/ 5/ 4/ 5/ 6/

Over 10

Total

789 579 797 3,284

167 129 196 1,070 642

4,361

3,025 2,833

553

186

628

166

108

1,001

-2,655 5,444

1,123

459 468 349 250

247 334 235 247

2,175 2,246 1,697 1,844

3,152

1,156 774

-5,072

1,135

235 283

424

238

2,635

350

110

-170 -2,151

507

- 5

46 120 439 191 105

5 - 10

Over 10

592 400 1,665 824 469

Total

Holdings 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227 10,035

792

1,' 059 364 3, 382 1,i 613 891 I, 433

386

707 -

46 -92

127 -81

-I

301 173 -

628

87 163

113 122

947 751

139

807 1,037

108

-92

-81

-2,052

29 6 13 20 27

-245 -653 -1,268 -305

-628

163

108

1,037 -----

-121

3 10 17 24 31

-1,141 -1,287 -1,198 -512

39.5

-3>79 10.5

31.4

14.7

10.7

67.3

1.7

3.5

1.5

7.5

-1,358 -46

-154 1,272 3,607 -2,892 34 -1,133 1,224 266 -2,130

231 1,043

-2,536 1,701 1,102

625 -1,154 -2,754

-1,594 -1,265 728

-1,672 -2,052 -923 1,540 683

-1,809 -6,663

-245 -657 -1,268 -305

-10,500 6,851

-3,358 -

-643

L73 --

Net

-555 7,930 4,632 -3,283

-1,667 -923 504 716

ft_

5-10

Net Change Outright

-2,751

1978--Nov.

h4 11o

1 - 5

1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187 4,660

863

1977--Qtr. IV

Federal Agencies Net purchases 4/

539 500 434 1,510 1,048 758

1,280 -468

1974 1975 1976 1977

-490 7,232

1973

u n

Treasury Coupons Net urchases 3/

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC FEBRUARY 2, 1979

-125 -1,141 -1,287 -1,204 -891

1,783 2,092 2,643

-2,186

6,552 -6,022 -3,234 827 4,549 -3,933

114.4

Change from end-of-pariod to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (- ) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term not as acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes red emptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securitiej, also reflects changes in System h oldings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars)

U.S. Govt. Security

Underwriting

Dealer Positions

Syndicate Positions

ills

7,234

Cupon Issues

Corporate Bonds

Municipal Bonds

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC FEBRUARY 2, 1979

Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** R

xess** Reserves

t al

Total

son Seasonal

Basic Reserve Deficit** e York 8 New

38 Others

3,017 -1,445

1,861 20

-9,151 -4,234

-13,975

1,729

1978--High Low

5,625 278

2,043 -1,076

1,716 172

-8,224 -2,370

-14,657

1977--Dec.

4,257

804

570

-7,403

-11,350

1978--Jan. Feb. Mar.

4,127 2,713

327 1,492 740

484 406 328

-6,047 -4,980 -6,778

-12,299 -12,603 -11,060

Apr. May June

3,183 1,023 2,847

-183 5 78

557 1,212 1,094

-6,196 -4,038 -4,514

-12,998

July Aug.

1,196

1,994 2,571

-626 423 125

1,317 1,139 1,060

-3,651 -4,793 -5,098

-10,204 -11,089 -11,357

1,495 1,960 1,697

-309 462 '219

1,277 703 868

-4,651 -3,345

-11,551 -13,448 -12,533

1 8

1,786

15 22 29

1,660 1,462 2,004

12 1,032 687 275 135

113 386 245 55 153

1,305 698 633 604 792

-3,843 -4,221 -4,763 -2,519 -2,370

-10,522 -12,872 -13,128 -14,657 -13,585

6 13 20 27

1,909 2,480 2,234

-281

835

64 1,007

327 152 237 -55

698 591 568 1,413

-2,481 -4,099 -2,688 -3,507

-13,235 -13,323 -12,567 -12,258

138 *2,195

726

-10,520

-72p

*2,913 *3,463 *3,670

*441 *451 *364

462p 5 p 372p

1,183 68 5p 89 7 p 924p 1,427p

-4,188

*833

-4,182 -4,341

-13,555 -12,858 -1 2,648p -11,267p

1977--High Low

3,418

Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

1978--Nov.

Dec.

1979--Jan.

10 17

24 .31

1,639

-83

544

-3,448

-2, 22p -2,384p

-8,206 -8,273

-11,653 -12,202

NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. Strictly confidential. * Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC

TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent)

FEBRUARY 2, 1979

Short-Term rasyB

Federal Funds (1) 6.65

1977--High Low

4,47

1978--High Low

10.25 6.58

1977--Dec.

6.56

Treasury Bills Auction Market 1-yr I 6-mo 3-mo .... (2) 6.27 4.41 9.30 6.16 6.07

CD's New

Comm.

ueNYC 90-Day

aper 90-119 Day

7,87

34 8.3

8.38

5.57

8.96

8.94

8.27

8,60 8.67 8.67

5.71 5.62 5.61

9.02 9.15 9.20

9.17 9.31 9.35

8.56 8,64 8.60

8.85 8.98 9.07

5.80 6.03 6.22

9.36 9.57 9.70

9.44 9.66 9.91

8.71 8.90 9.05

6.75 6.76 6.75

7.93

7.61

8.14

8.00

7.67 7.70

8.22 8.21

68 8.1 8.6 9 8.71

6.82

8.00

7.85

8.32

8.910

7.06

8.27 8.63

8.07 8.30

8.44

8.53

8.95 9.09

9.00 9.01 9.41

8.54

8.69 8.45 8.47

9.1 4 8.812 8,816

9.18

6.28

9.74

10.01

9.15

8.91

6.12

9.79

9.81

8.97

8.86

8.69

9.1 17 9.2 7

9.13 9.27 9.41

6.09 6.13 6.19 6.51

9.76 9.86 10,11 10.35

9.79 10.03 10.30 10.50

9,04 9.25 9.39 9.38

9.51p

6,47

9.12 10.15

Dec.

1979--Jan.

9.29 9.77

9.68

9.85

6 13 20 27

9.87

3 10 17 24 31

Daily--Jan. 25 Feb. 1

9.68

9.79 9.75 10.25 10.59 9.97 10.05 10.05 10.12 10.02 10.0 4 p

8.35 8.85

8.39 7.56 9.68 8.43

7.30

8.98

1 *8 15

8.98 8.46 10.60 9.13

7.75

7.83

1978--Nov.

9.00 8.65 10.38 8.98

6.61

7.86 8.34

Jan.

5.93 5.45 6.67 5.58

30 9.: 8.6 1

7.59

Dec.

8.2 36 7.S 90

9.00 8.01

7.85

7.99 8.64 9.08 9.35

7.26

Sec. (16)

9..59 7.40

8.00

8.96 9,76 10,03 10.07

7.99

5.83

Auc. (15)

7.75

7.66

Nov.

7.39

y (14)

11.57

7.01 7.08 7,85

Oct.

7.75 6,25

GNMA

y (13)

10.52 6.68

6.65 6.65

6.84 7.20

8.45

(LU)

FNMA

Offered (12)

10.65

6.29 6.41 6,73

Sept.

...

(0)

Recentl

8.48 7.95 9.54 8.48

6.89 7.36 7,60 8.04

..... ^L

New Iss ue 1) (1 .

4.63

Apr. May June

7.81

(I)

Home Mortgages econdary Market

6.66

Mar.

July

Rate

ields r 20-yr

Long-Term Corp.-Aaa tilit Municipal

6.70

6.82

Aug.

Govt.-Constant

4.50

6.44 6.45 6.29

6.70

U.S.

aturity

....... (6)

(5)

6.78 6.79

1978--Jan. Feb.

6.77 6.73

10.44 10.20

10.00 10.00

8.39 10.14

10.37 10.25

11.55

8.33 8.41 8.62 9.04 9.33

11.75

9.50

9.94 10.94

9.33 10.01 10.24 10.21

10.25 10.61 10.75

10.15

11.43

11,50

9.12 8.95 8.96 9.16

10.25

8.93 8.90

10.25

9.14

10.65

10.25 10.27 10.36

9.30

10.50

10.52

11.50 11.50 11.57

10.46 10,40 10.25 10.12 9.76

10.57

11.75

10.37 10.31 10.19

11.75

9.58 9.60

11.75 11.75

10.02

11.75

10,04

11.75

9.96

11.75

10.38

10.96

9.12 9.19 9.52

10.39

10.70

9.67

9.90

10.20

9.30

10.05

9,24

10,20

9.25

10.28

8.78

9.28

10.30

9.48 9.39 9.40 9.35 9.43

8.79 8.85

9.31 9.35 9.54

10.35

10.35 10.35

10.40

9.51

10.38

10.60

9.00 8,99

9.59

9.2 8 54 9.5

9.28

8,80 8.80 8.72 8,72

9.10

8.38 8.36 8.98

10.25 10.25

8.75 8.90 8.98

10.27

10.33

9.21

8.99

9.51

10.38

9.01

9.55

10.38

10.67

9.59

9.22 9.21

9.03

9,42 9.18p

9.06 8.95p

8.95

9.57 9.45 9.41p

10.40 10.40 n.a.

10.73

9.32 2 9.1 p

8.98

8.90 8.90p

. 93p

8.90p

9.39 9.43 9.65 9.68 9.72 9.71 9.70 9.67 9.55

NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1, 2, 3, 6, and 7 are statement week averages of daily data, Weekly data in column 4 are average rates set in the auctions of 6month bills that will be issued on the Thursday following the end of the statement week. Data in column 5 are 1-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 8 through 11, Columns 12 and 13 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. following the end of the statement week. Column 14 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 15 gives FNMA Column 16 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. GNMA yields are average auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling.

FEB.

1979

Appendix Table 1-A

Money and Credit Aggregate Measures Period

Nonborrowed

Credit

Total

Monetary Base

Loans and

Investments rn m_ 4

0.6 5.3 6.9

0.8 3.0 6.9

6.7 8.3 9.2

8.0 11.3 11.3

5.8

12.6

7.9 7.3

9.3 5.3

10.9 9.8 8.5

Total

2 1 1976 1977 1978

Money Stock Measures

Bdnk

Bank Reserves

M-1

M-l

6 5 PER CENT ANNUAL

M-2

M-4

M-5

M-6

9 9

10 10

1 11

12.7 11.7 9.4

7.1 10.1 10.5

10.2 11.7 10.5

9.9 11.5 10.2

9.9 11.6 11,0

11.1

10.3

11.8

12.0

11.9 11.3 10.0

M-3

8 7 ATES OF IROWTH)

SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF

1977

6.9

3.0

9.3

10.7

8.1

7.5

9.1

1ST HALF 2ND HALF

1978 1978

7.6 5.9

7.6 6.0

8.7 9.2

12.7 9.4

8.0

6.2

6.3

4.3

7.7 8.9

6.6 10.4 6.2 2.7

9.3 2.7 6.7 4.6

8.0 9.6 9.6 8.0

10.4 17.0 8.7 5.9

5.3 10.8 9.8 0.4

4.1 8.6 7.5 -1.8

8.9 6.2 8.6 3.1

14.5 0.6 6.6 5.4

9.7 7.6 9.5 8.6

10.1 14.9 10.8 7.7

6.6 9.2 8.1 4.4

5.6

15.0

9.6

6.3 14.4 8.5 7.9 19.9 16.6 13.7 11.0 5.1 9.7 9.8 6.7 1.1

10.0

10.6 9.8

10.0 10.5

9.9 9.9

6.5 9.7 11.2 4.7

7.5 9.4 11.6 7.1

9.5 11.2 11.0 7.6

9.3 10.3 11.4 8.8

9.2 10.1 11.0 7.9

10.8 11.2 10.9 7.9

5.0 7.2 6.0 2.5

7.0 8.4 9.9 7.7

8.1 8.4

10.4 9.4

10.2 10.6 10.1 9.4

10.0 9.8 10.5 10.3

10.1 9.6 9.7 9.8

11.5 10.9 10.1 9.7

7.8

5.6

6.3

7.9

9.6

9.9

9.6

11.0

11.3 1.8 2.8 16.4 9.7 6.2 6.8 8.5 13.8 1.7 -2.0 1.7

8.6 1.5 2.3 12.1 8.4 5.2 2.9 7.2 12.1

9.8 5.0 4.7 11.2

9.8

12.0 8.6 7.6 13.0 11.9 8.3 9.6 10.0 13.1 6.0 12.6 4.1

11.1 8.5 8.1 11.1 10.4

11.8 8.4 7.4 11.0 10.4 8.6 8.3 10.1 14.3 7.6 9.9 6.2

13.1 9.9 9.1 12.2 11.3 9.7 8.6 9.9 14.0 7.5 9.9 6.2

8.3

QUARTERLY: 1ST QTR. 1978 2ND-QTR. 1978 3RD QTR. 1978 4TH QTR. 1978

QUARTERLY-AV: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH

QTR. QTR. QTR. QTR.

1978 1978 1978 1978

MONTHLY: 1977--DEC. 1978--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT, NOV. DEC.

1/ 2/ P -

18.0 7.1 -5.2 8.3 11.0 11.6 14.8 -5.0 8.6 5.4 -3.5 6.1

20.9 9.6 -2.9 1.3 -8.9 15.6 8.5 0.2 11.3 -0.9 13.5 1.3

14.2 6.2 3.6 7.9 10.5 10.1 10.3 5.3 13.0 7.9 6.5 9.4

BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. PRELIMINARY

RESERVE

REQUIREMENTS.

0.8 -4.9 -1.4

9.2 8.5 8.7 11.6 13.0 6.5 4.7 2.7

6.4 6.3 9.3 9.6

11.5 13.4 8.9 6.7

5.6

9. 1

10.1 10.5 13.4 8.4 11.5 6.3

Appendix Table 1-B

FEB.

1979

Money and Credit Aggregate Measures Seasonally Adjusted, Billions of Dollars Bank Reserves 1 Period Total

Nonborrowed

Monetary Base

Money Stock Measures

Credt Total Loans nd Invest-

M 4

M-7

M-5

M-6

876.3

1235.6 1374.3 1500.9

803.0 883.1 973.0

1298.0 1448.0 1597.6

1436.4 1602.2 1760.8

1484.2 1658.5 1834.2

M-1

M1+

M-2

809.4

-3

S-r-ments

ANNUALLY% 37,013 38,923 41,497

36,960 38,354 40,629

120,670 130,771 142,648

788.9 875.5 971.1

313.8 361.5

517.2 560.6 586.7

1977--DEC.

38,923

38,354

130,771

875.5

338.7

560.6

809.4

1374.3

883.1

1448.0

1602.2

1658.5

1978--JAN. FEB. MAR.

39t507 39,741 39,570

39,023 39,336 39,242

132,316 132,997 133,400

886.0 892.3 898.6

341.9 342.4 343.2

564.6 566.4

816.0 819.4 822.6

1385.5 1392.9 1400.2

891.9 898.3 904.0

1461.4 1471.7 1481.6

1617.9 1629.2 1639.2

1676.6 1690.5 1703.3

APR. 9AY JUNE

39,843 40,208 40,597

39,286 38,996 39t503

L34,277 135,450 136,594

913.5 926.1 936.7

347.9 350.7 352.5

572.1 576.1

830.3 836.7

842.6

913.8 922.9 929.3

1495.3

578.6

1411.8 1422.1 1433.1

1654.2 1668.5 1680.4

1720.6 1736.8 1750.8

JULY

41,099 40,928 41,223

39,782 39,788 40,163

137,763 138,370 139,865

945.3 949.3

354.5

AUG. SEPT.

580.0 583.5 589.4

848.7 856.9 866.2

1444.6 1458.4 1474.7

936.7 944.5 954.8

1532.6 1546.0

957.0

357.0 361.1

1563.2

1692.0 1706.2 1726.6

1763.3 1777.8 1798.6

OCT. NOV. OEC.

41,410 41,288 41,497

40,133 40,585 40,629

140,781 141,542 142,648

964.8 970.2 971.1

361.6 361.0 361.5

589.8 587.4 586.7

870.9

1485.6 1493.9 1500.9

959.6 969.7 973.0

1574.2 1589.3 1597.6

1737.5 1751.8 1760.8

1809.9 1824.8 1834.2

6 13 20 27

41,506 42 120 41,304 40,789

40,808 41,529 40,737 39,376

142,197 143,051 142,255 142,191

361.3 361.2 361.3 361.1

586.9 586.7 586.4 585.9

875.7 875.8 875.9 875.9

971.9 972.6 972.9 972.4

3 10P 17P 24P 31P

41,969 40,675 42,143 41,282 41,727

40,786 39,990 41,246 40,359 40,300

144,105 142,679 144,134 143,504 144,026

362.4 360.6 360.9 357.9

587.4 584.8 583.8 580.1

878.0

974.6 973.8 976.7

1976 1977 1078

338.7

740.6

MONTHLY:

565.3

874.3 876.3

1508.3 1519.8

WEEKLY: 9

1 78-DEC.

1 79-JAN.

NOTES:

WEEKLY DATA M3, M5, M6, I/ RASED ON DATA P - PRELIMINIRY

875.0 876.2 873.9

975.8

ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. DATA SHOWN IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS. ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS.

DATA ARE NOT

AVAILABLE FOR

FEB.

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

1979

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES III

Period

(Per cent annual rates of growth)

2/ ANNUALLY:

25.0 11.1 1.8

15.0 11.2 9.4

9.5 9.3 10.0

1976 1977 1978

7.5 11.4 16.1

32.8

15.4 14.0 10.3

17.8 19.5 15.3

7.1 12.6 7.7

11.9 13,4 34.4

-23.3 12.8

2/ SEMI-ANNUALLY: 6.4

12.9

25.6

13.6

20.1

22.3

10.1

2.9 0.7

11.7 19.3

42.6 19.0

8.5 11.5

17.0 12.4

12.0 3.2

51.9 13.5

7.4 8.9 12.2 7.7

2.2 4.7 3.6 -6.2

12.0 12.5 19.5 18.9

42.3 25.5 8.3 36.6

8.3 8.3 12.1 10.9

17.2 15.6 13.5 7.7

11.3 9.5 9.3 -4.3

55,4 39.3 9.1 7.8

12.5 11.5 11.3 12.4

7.2 7.9 11.1 10.2

2.0 3.8 2.3 -0.9

11.7 11.4 18.5 19.2

47.7 33.5

17.4 15.9 13.7

25.0

8.9 7.8 10.9 11.8

10.q

16.2 7.5 1.0 5.4

52.3 45,6 18.7 7.8

10.7

5.1

1.6

8.2

47.4

9.8

18.3

7.8

12.9 12.8 9.8 10.7 11.0 15.5 21.6 21.2 14.8 19.3 24.5 12.0

35.8 47.4

2ND HALF 1977

10.0

7.3

11.7

1ST HALF 1978 2ND HALF 1978

9.3 10.2

7.6 4.9

12.2 12.0

7.6 10.8

9.5 7.9 11.7 9.7

3.8 11.9 9.1 -2.7

12.1 11.4 11.7 11.9

10.5 8.0 9.6 10.6

5.5 9.7 7.6 2.1

10.9

6.8

9.8

QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH

OTR. QTR. QTR. QTR.

1978 1978 1978 1978

QUARTERLY-AVt 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH

QTR. QTR. QTR. QTR.

1978 1979 1978 1978

12.2

MONTHLY: 1977--DEC.

8.7 12.3 10.8 11.5 7.3 12.9 -1.0 10.7 6.0 10.6 6.7 1.0 10.9 7.8 7.9 19.5 13.4 8.7 10.3 9.2 9.6 10.1 5.6 6.5 9.8 11.2 9.1 6.0 14.1 10.9 9.0 7.8 12.7 12.5 16.6 13.2 8.5 10.0 7.6 -0.5 9.4 21.9 -6.3 10.0 3.5 5.1 11.2 -1.4 I a t I I IJ 1/ GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 2/ BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. P - PRELIMINARY.

1978--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

3.8 1.1 1.6 4.3 6.0 3.8 -3.8 4.8 9.7 -1.6 -9.6 -7.5

39.5

28.0 40.3 7.0 18.0 -5.5 12.3 1.4 92.1 15.1

9.0 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.2 10.1 11.1 11.2 13.5 12.5 10.0 9.7

LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF

15.5 17.8 17.5 14.8 14.6 16.9 9.5 14.1 16.3 9.2 4.6 9.1 CURRENT MONTH

29.4 9.1 -4.5 13.5 13.4 1.5 -23.5 9.0 43. 1 -7.2 -14.4 8.8 AND END OF

51.1 51.2 55.2 52.8 43.1 34.3 36.9 15.3 5.0 6.7 8.3 8.3 6.6

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

FEB.

2, 1979

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES U

Short-

Mutual Savings Bank & SL Shares Shrs

Period

Credit Union Savings Shares Bonds I/ S

--- 8

Term U.S. Gov't Sec /

Se11 --

Other

Total NonGov't Deposit Funds Demand Deposits 31 1V A/

Private

Shortterm Assets --

ANNUALLY:

88.6 97.5

233.0 250.1 264.1

489.2 544.4 611.4

426.7 470.7 514.8

202.1 219.7 222.0

224.7 251.0 292.8

62.4 73.7 96.6

456.1 518.3 571.4

39.0 46.6 53.2

71.9 76.6 80.6

66.5 77.6 82.7

47.8 56.3 73.4

51.0 62.0 76.8

11.4 11.7 15.4

MONTHLY: 1977--DEC.

88.6

250.1

544.4

470.7

219.7

251.0

73.7

518.3

46.6

76.6

77.6

56.3

62.0

11.7

1978--JAN FEB. MAR.

89.4 90.2 90.7

252.5 252.3 252.5

550.0 555.9 560.8

474.1 477.0 479.4

220.4 1 220.6 220.9

253.7 256.4 258.5

75.9 78.9 81.5

522.2 525.6 529.0

47.2 47.9 48.6

77.0 77.4 77.8

79.5 80.1 79.8

58.7

61.4 64.1

64.9 65.5 65.4

11.3 8.7 9.3

APR, MAY JUNE

91.3 92.0 92.5

256.6 258.8 260.0

565.9 572.2 576.8

482.5 486.0 490.1

221.7 222.8 223.5

260.8 263.2 266.6

83.4 86.2 86.7

532.3 535.5 540.0

49.2 49.8 50.5

78.2 78.6 78.9

80.7 81.6 81.7

66.4 68.3 70.4

65.7 66.2 66.4

10.2 8.3 13.4

JULY AUG. SEPT.

93.2 93.9 95.2

261.3 263.0 265.9

582.2 587.5 593.7

494.1 499.9 505.1

222.8 223.7 225.5

271.4 276.2 279.6

88.0 87.6 88.5

545.0 550.1 556.3

50.9 51.5 52.2

79.3 79.5 79.8

80.1 80.7 83.6

71.3 71.6

14.7 16.9

72.0

66.7 68.8 69.8

OCT. NOV. DEC.

95.8 96.6 97.5

265.8 264.4 264.1

597.9 608.8 611.4

509.3 513.3 514.8

225.2 223.4 222.0

284.1 289.9 292.8

88.6 95.4 96.6

562.1

52.6 52.8 53.2

80.1 80.4 80.6

83.1 82.1 82.7

72.5 73.0 73.4

74.9 73.0 76.8

20.1

80.8

1976 1977 1978

566.8

571.4

16.8

21.0

15.4

WEEKLY: 1978-NOV.

96.8

263.5

610.4

514.2

222.9

291. 3

96.2

76.3

21.8

DEC.

6 13 20 27

97.1 97.2 97.2 97.6

264.3 264.0 264.2 263.5

610.6 611.4 611.6 611.3

514.3 514.6 514.6 514.8

222.5 222.3 221.9 221.6

291.9

292.3 292.7 293.3

96.3 96.8 97.0 96.5

77.0 77.7 76.9 75.6

16.6 12.2 14.9 15.8

3 o0P 17P 24P

97.8 98.0 98.0 98.4

264.6 262.6 262.8 259.6

612.2 613.3 615.8 617.9

515.5 514.4 515,3 515.9

221.7 221.0 219.7 218.9

293.8 293.4 295.7 297.1

96.7 98.9 100.5 102.0

1979-JAN.

1/ 21 3/ 4/ P -

ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. INCLUDES PRIVATE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS' HOLDINGS OF COMMERCIAL PAPER, BANKERS ACCEPTANCES, SECURITY RP'S AND MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUND SHARES. BORROWINGS BY BANKS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SECURITIES SOLD UNDER AGREEMENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEYr PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES (EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS), LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEMAND DEPOSITS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS AND TREASURY NOTE BALANCES. PRELIMINARY

16.9 13.6 14.1 15.0

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1979, February 5). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19790206

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19790206,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1979},
  month = {Feb},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19790206},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}