Bluebook
Prefatory Note
The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.
1
In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.
Strictly Confidential (FR)
Class I FOMC
October 2, 1981
MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS
Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC
October 2,
1981
MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1)
Growth of M1-B (adjusted for shifts into NOW accounts)
accelerated to almost a 7 percent annual rate in August, but then contracted in September.
Over the June to September short-term target period
growth was at about a 1¾ percent annual rate, well below the Committee's objective for that interval.
As shown in the last column of the table
on the next page, growth in adjusted M-1B for the year to date is just a little over 1 percent at an annual rate, well below the lower limit of the Committee's 3½ to 6 percent longer-run range. (2)
Growth of M2 over the June to September period was at a
9 percent annual rate, holding growth for the year to date at the upper end of the FOMC's longer-run range.
The nontransaction component of M2
in August and September showed considerable strength, led by continued large inflows into money market mutual funds. (3)
In interpreting the third quarter behavior of M2, it should
be noted that its growth was restrained by diversion of M2 balances to retail RPs issued by depository institutions in part to compete with MMMFs but mainly to attract customer funds in anticipation of the October 1 issuance of All Saver Certificates
(ASCs).1
These RPs were not included
in M2 when it was redefined in early 1980 because they were not of any importance at that time.
Inclusion of all such RPs in M2 would raise its
1/ An August 31 Federal Reserve survey indicated that on that date depository institutions had $11.1 billion of retail RPs outstanding-$6.3 billion at S&Ls, $1.3 billion at mutual savings banks, and $3.5 billion at commercial banks. Staff estimates based on sample data suggest such RPs rose a further $4 billion by the end of September.
-2
-
Key Monetary Policy Aggregates (Seasonally adjusted annual rates of growth)
Sept.2 /
Sept. '81 E2 Sept. '81 2/ over over June '81 QIV '80
July
August
2.6 7.4 9.2 8.7 5.7
6.9 12.1 14.4 13.9 10.3
-4.0 7.3 9.3 8.6 7.3
1.8 9.0 11.1 10.5 7.8
19.8 7.9 8.2
17.2 8.6 5.1
21.6 21.9 3.8
19.9 12.9 5.7
1,676
1,339
1,159
Money and Credit Aggregates M-B (shift adjusted) M2 M2 plus retail RPs 1/ M3 Bank Credit Reserve Measures
2/
Nonborrowed Reserves Total Reserves Monetary Base Memo:
1/ 2/
3/
p/
1.1 9.0 9.8 11.4 8.5
3/
Adjustment Borrowing (million of dollars)
7.2 6.2 5.4
The quantity of retail RPs are staff estimates based on an August 31, 1981 universe survey, and partial FRB and FHLBB samples. Growth rates for reserve measures are adjusted to remove the effects of discontinuities for breaks in the series as reserve ratios go through phased changes under the Monetary Control Act. In addition, reserve data for QIV '80 have been adjusted to remove the distorting effects of the reduction in weekend reserve avoidance activities that occurred in late 1980. Nonborrowed reserves included special borrowing and extended credit from the Federal Reserve. Preliminary.
Memorandum:
FOMC Targets
(percent increase) Longer-run (QIV '80 -
.QIV '81) Ml-B (shift adjusted) M2 M3 Bank Credit
3-1/2 to 6 6 to 9 6-1/2 to 9-1/2 6 to 9
growth from June to September by about 2 percentage points.
If adjusted
to include retail RPs, growth of M2 would be about ¾ of a percentage point above the longer-run target range. (4)
Nonborrowed reserves expanded at a 20 percent annual rate
over the third quarter.
Total reserves expanded substantially less, though,
as adjustment borrowing from the discount window declined, reflecting the weakening in required reserves against transaction
balances.
In the
most recent statement week, adjustment borrowing averaged a little over $1 billion, some $350 million below the level assumed in constructing the reserve paths after the last meeting.
Growth in the monetary base was
considerably less rapid than expansion in total reserves, as expansion of currency slowed to an unusually low 4 percent annual rate over the past three months.1/ (5) The federal funds rate, which had averaged around 19 percent in July and around 18¼ percent at the time of the August meeting, recently has traded in a 14½ to 16½ percent range as pressure in the reserves market 2/
eased.-
In response, most other short-term market rates have declined 1
to 2½ percentage points.
The bank prime rate was reduced by 1 percentage
point to 19½ percent, and the Federal Reserve reduced by 1 percentage point to 3 percent the surcharge rate for large, frequent borrowers at the discount window.
1/ See Appendix I for adjustments made to the reserves path during the intermeeting period.
2/ Trading took place at somewhat higher rates on the first two days of same day CHIPS settlement, as institutions initially managed reserves more cautiously in adjusting to the new system.
(6)
Despite the easing in the money market, bond yields have
increased on balance since the last meeting by 50 to over 100 basis points. The advance in long-term yields reflected in large part market concerns about federal deficits in fiscal 1982 and beyond.
The Treasury raised over
$8 billion of new money in September to build up its cash balance to help meet the large fourth-quarter combined (unified and off-budget) deficit of around $50 billion, and it has recently held or announced auctions to raise another $5 billion of cash through 20- and 7-year issues. (7)
Since its peak in early August, just prior to the last
FOMC meeting, the dollar has declined on balance by about 7
percent.
Lower short-term interest rates in the United States contributed to the dollar's net decline, but the market also reacted to the prospective improvement in Germany's current account and a weakening in that of the United States.
Prospective developments (8)
The table below presents three alternative approaches to
the monetary aggregates for the fourth quarter of 1981.
Implied growth
rates for the QIV '80 to QIV '81 longer-run policy period for each of these alternatives are also shown.
Possible ranges for the intermeeting
federal funds rate are indicated in the last line of the table.
(More
detailed data on these and other aggregates may be found on the following two pages, and charts indicating the relationship of the alternative threemonth targets to the Committee's existing longer-run ranges for 1981 may be found on the next three pages.) Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. C
9 11
6 10
Growth from September to December 12 12½
M-1B M2 Implied growth from QIV '80 to QIV '81 M1-B M2
3 10
2 9¾
Federal funds rate range
9 to 15
11 to 17
(9)
2 9 13 to 18
Alternative A is designed to achieve a rapid enough expansion
of M1-B over the next three months so that it would reach the lower limit of the FOMC's 3½ to 6 percent longer-run target range by December.
This
approach would probably lead to growth in M2 (and also M3) for the year well above target.
Alternative C is designed to bring M2 closer to its
target for the year, with the projected small overshoot accounted for mainly by shifts of funds out of non-M2 assets into ASCs; such an approach would
Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1-A
1981--August September October November December
M1-B
Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. C
Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. C
392.7 391.0 394.1 398.4 402.9
392.7 391.0 393.4 396.3 399.8
392.7 391.0 392.8 394.6 396.4
422.3 420.9 424.3 428.9 433.7
422.3 420.9 423.6 426.8 430.6
422.3 420.9 423.0 425.1 427.2
-5.2 (-8.0) 9.5 (10.7) 13.1 (9.6) 13.6 (13.1) 12.2 (11.2)
-5.2 (-8.0) 7.4 (8.3) 8.8 (5.0) 10.6 (9.9) 9.0 (7.8)
-5.2 (-8.0) 5.5 (6.3) 5.5 (1.3) 5.5 (4.3) 5.5 (4.0)
-4.0 (-2.8) 9.7 (9.4) 13.0 (14.3) 13.4 (14.4) 12.2 (12.9)
-4.0 (-2.8) 7.7 (7.5) 9.1 (10.5) 10.7 (11.8) 9.2 (10.0)
-4.0 (-2.8) 6.0 (5.8) 6.0 (7.5) 5.9 (7.1) 6.0 (6.8)
5.1 -1.5 7.3
5.1 -1.5 5.2
5.1 -1.5 3.3
5.3 -0.7 7.6
5.3 -0.7 5.7
5.3 -0.7 3.9
2.3
1.7
1.3
2.9
2.4
1.9
Growth Rates Monthly 1981--September October November December September '81 - December '81
Quarterly Average 1981--QII QIII QIV 1980 QIV - 1981 QIV
NOTE:
Growth rates shown in
parentheses are for the observed levels of the aggregates.
Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) M2 Alt.
M3
A
Alt. B
Alt. C
Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. C
1777.9 1788.7 1811.5 1830.0 1844.6
1777.9 1788.7 1810.0 1826.0 1839.0
1777.9 1788.7 1808.0 1821.0 1833.4
2118.3 2133.5 2159.5 2175.7 2189.6
2118.3 2133.5 2158.0 2173.3 2186.5
2118.3 2133.5 2156.0 2171.0 2183.4
1981--September October November December
7.3 15.3 12.3 9.6
7.3 14.3 10.6 8.5
7.3 12.9 8.6 8.2
8.6 14.6 9.0 7.7
8.6 13.8 8.5 7.3
8.6 12.7 8.3 6.9
September '81 - December '81
12.5
11.2
10.0
10.5
9.9
9.4
10.6 7.3 12.0
10.6 7.3 11.1
10.6 7.3 10.2
10.6 10.4 11.3
10.6 10.4 10.8
10.6 10.4 10.4
9.9
9.7
9.4
11.6
11.5
11.4
1981--August September October November December Growth Rates Monthly
Quarterly Average 1981--QII QIII QIV 1980 QIV - 1981 QIV
Chart
1
CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class II-FOMC
Actual and Targeted M1-B
M1-B *
Billions of dollars -- 460 Observed Level
... Level Adjusted for Impact of Nationwide NOW Accounts -
* - Short-Run Alternatives
-1450
-
440
.A .. c -
-1420
--4410
-- 400
I 0
I N
1980
I D
I J
I~ I
I F
M
II ___ I
II A
M
J
J
1981
II
-I A
I
S
I
0
,
N
D
Chart 2
CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class II-FOMC
Actual and Targeted M 2
M2
Billions of dollars 11860
-
Actual Level
....
Short-Run Alternatives
1820
-- 1800
-41760
-1740
-- 1720
-11700
-11680
-- 1660
1640
N
1980
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
1981
A
S
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
O
O
N
D
Chart 3
CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
Class
M 3 and Bank Credit
M3
FOMC
Billions of dollars S 2200 *Actual Level -Short-Run Alternatives
2150
2100
2050
2000
: :
1950 *NOTE.
N
F
J
D
M
A, B. and C alternatves are inditingulhatble on this scale
A
J
1980
A
S
0
1981
BANK CREDIT
Billions of dollars 1350
" Actual Level
9%
-1300
.60/b
I
1250
O
SI I
I N
1980
D
I J
IIII F
M
I
_J A
M
I
I
J
J
1981
I
A
I
I
I J
I
S
0
I N
1200 D
leave M1-B for the year well below the lower end of its range.
Alternative
B falls midway between the two approaches.1/ (10)
Under the specifications of alternative C we would expect
growth in M1-B at a 6 percent annual rate over the September to December period to be consistent with maintaining M2 relatively near to the upper limit of its longer-run target range.
The staff does not expect this
alternative to involve further downward pressures on short-term interest rates, given the 7 percent increase in nominal GNP projected for the fourth quarter and assuming less rapid downward shift in demand for M1-B
2/
(relative to income and interest rates) than occurred earlier this year.2/ (11)
Over the next few weeks, the federal funds rate under
this alternative may fluctuate for the most part in the area of 15 to 16 percent.
1/
Other short-term rates are not likely to drop further under
In developing these alternatives it was assumed that about $80 billion would shift into ASCs during the fourth quarter out of $125 billion projected to shift over the life of the instrument. Of this amount, it
was further assumed that about $15 billion will represent funds that are not currently in M2 (with about three-fourths representing funds currently in retail RPs). A shift to ASCs from non-M2 sources of that amount would raise M2 growth by about 3 percentage points at an annual rate for the fourth quarter, and about ¾ of a percentage point for the year 1981. It is probable, however, that such a calculation overestimates the impact of ASCs on M2. To the extent that retail RPs
represent funds that would have otherwise been in M2, shifts from them to ASCs in the fourth quarter only offset the downward distortions to M2 from their growth in earlier quarters. If it is assumed, at one extreme, that all retail RPs reflect funds diverted from M2-type accounts, then the impact of ASCs on M2 for the year 1981 would only be about ¾ of a percent. It is probably best to assume a range of impact from ¼ to ¾ of a percent. 2/ Over the first three quarters of 1981, the downward shift in demand for adjusted M1-B according to the Board's quarterly model was equivalent to about 6 percentage points at an annual rate.
such circumstances, and they could edge higher. financial markets are expected to remain sizable
Business net demands on as profits continue
to be squeezed, and to focus, as in the recent past, on short-term markets. About half of the Treasury's large cash need between now and year end is expected to be raised in the bill market. (12)
Total reserves would need to expand at a 3 percent annual
rate over the last three months of the year if the monetary specifications of alternative C are to be achieved.
Adjustment borrowing at the discount
window would probably vary between $900 million and $1.2 billion, given the current structure of discount rates and a federal funds rate in the area of 15 to 16 percent.
Nonborrowed reserves would be targeted to expand at a
4 percent annual rate over the last three months of the year. (13)
The specifications of alternative B call for a more rapid
growth in M1-B at around a 9 percent annual rate from September to December, sustained by 6 percent annual rate of growth in total reserves. The federal funds rate under these conditions is likely to decline to
around the current 14 percent basic discount rate or just below.
Adjust-
ment borrowing at the discount window would move down to minimal levels in the area of $200 to 300 million or so.
Nonborrowed reserve growth
would be at a 14 percent annual rate over the next three months. (14)
Other short-term rates would decline along with the
-funds rate, and a substantial rally in bond markets might develop.
The
possibilities of such a rally, or the length of one, would be limited by
the large pent-up corporate and municipal demands for long-term credit that are likely to materialize as credit conditions ease.
Declines in mortgage
rates are likely to lag drops in other longer-term yields, in part reflecting
-10-
continued pressures on thrift institutions only partially relieved by ASCs. It would probably take some time before any significant pick-up in mortgage commitments was evident, given the past volatility of market conditions and the relatively short-term maturity of ASC deposits. (16)
Under alternative A, M1-B growth is targeted to rise at
about a 12 percent annual rate from September to December in order to bring this aggregate back to the lower bound of its long-run range by the end of the year.
We would expect a substantial drop in short-term rates--
with the funds rate dropping into a 10 to 12 percent range on average and 3-month rates moving toward single digit levels--as reserves are expanded to reach this objective.
Total reserves would have to rise at a 9 percent
annual rate over the quarter, and nonborrowed reserves at about an 18 percent annual rate.
A reserve operating path that appears to entail market
rates well below the present 14 percent discount rate calls into question the sustainability of that rate, for technical reasons if for no other.1/
1/ A discount rate well above the expected funds rate runs the risk of leading to highly volatile money market conditions. With adjustment borrowing negligible, the level of nonborrowed reserves in the operating path would be effectively equal to the total reserves path. If there were a shortfall in money and in required reserves, maintenance of nonborrowed reserves at path levels would entail adding to banks' excess reserves, with consequent downward, and possibly sharp downward, pressure on the funds rate. In the short-run the funds rate could be driven toward minimal levels. Rates could subsequently rebound sharply as money demand strengthened, perhaps excessively, in response to the very low money market rates. This type of rate volatility would probably be a little more marked under lagged than under contemporaneous reserve accounting, since under the former excess reserves created by
Federal Reserve operations in any given week cannot be absorbed by changes in required reserves that week. With a discount rate low relative to money market rates, the nonborrowed reserves path could be set below the total reserve path. As a result, a change in borrowing could absorb shortfalls in required reserves; and, with borrowing less interest inelastic than excess reserves, short-term market rates would vary less for a given nonborrowed reserve path.
-11(17)
M2 under this alternative would probably grow at a 12
percent annual rate over the next three months.
Net inflows of funds to
thrift institutions may pick up somewhat, but more importantly, pressures on their earnings would be greatly alleviated. Both mortgage market rates and bond yields are likely to show a substantial drop, calling forth stronger demands for longer-term financing. probably weaken considerably.
In exchange markets, the dollar would
However, the declines in long-term rates
and exchange rates would tend to be moderated in the degree that market participants came to believe that a substantial rebound of short-term rates was in prospect over a reasonably near term.
Such a rebound would
be expected by the staff early next year in the process of restraining money growth to FOMC's 1982 targets.
Such upward interest rate pressures would
be intensified as the sharp easing of credit conditions between now and year-end contemplated by alternative A leads to more of a strengthening in economic activity in the first part of next year than is in the current staff projection.
-12Directive language (18) directive.
Given below is a suggested operational paragraph for the
The specifications adopted at the meeting on August 18 are
shown in strike-through form. In the short run the Committee
[DEL: seek] to continue
SEEKS behavior
of reserve aggregates consistent with growth of M-1B from [DEL: June to] September TO DECEMBER at an annual rate of[DEL: 7]____percent after allowance for the impact of flows into NOW accounts [DEL: (resulting in about of rate annual an at growth
2 percemt in average the from
second third quarter),] in average the to quarter
provided that
growth of M2 remains around the upper limit of, or moves within, its range for the year.
It is recognized that THE BEHAVIOR OF M2 WILL
HAVE TO BE EVALUATED IN THE LIGHT OF THE EFFECTS OF RECENT REGULATORY AND LEGISLATIVE CHANGES,
PARTICULARLY THE PUBLIC'S RESPONSE TO
THE AVAILABILITY OF THE ALL SAVERS CERTIFICATE [DEL: shifts into NOW accounts distort to continue will extend unpredictable
M1-B measured growthin operational and
to an
reserve-paths-will-be-developed
in-the-light-of-evaluation of these distortions].
The Chairman may call
for Committee consultatin if it appears to the Manager for Domestic Operations that pursuit of the monetary objectives and related reserve paths during the period before the next meeting is likely to be associated with a federal funds rate persistently outside a 15 to 21]____ TO ____ percent. range of [DEL:
Appendix I RESERVES TARGETS AND RELATED MEASURES INTERMEETING PERIOD (millions of dollars; not seasonally adjusted) Targets for 4-week Average August 26 to
Projection of 4-week Average August 26 to
September 16
Total Reserves
September 16
Nonborrowed Reserves
Total Reserves
Required Reserves
Excess Reserves
Adjustment Borrowing
(5)
(6)
40,571
225
1,400
40,285 40,260 40,246 40,253 40,311
225 224 269 225 268
1,242 1,200 1,082 1,185 1,310
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Au=. IS (FOMC Meeting)
40,79C
35,39c
40,796
21 28 Sept. 4 11 Actual 4-week Average
40,6681 40,683-. 40,833, 40,75040,579
40,510 40,483 40,515 40,535 40,579
As of
1/
1/
39,2682 / 39,28339,433 / 39,35039,269
Targets for 3-week Average September 23 to October 7
Projection of 3-week Average September 23 to October 7
Sept. 18 25
41,1625/ 41,140:-
39,7625/ 39,740-
40,715 40,721
40,490 40,528
Oct.
41,226-
39,826-
40,847
40,515
n.a.Z/
n.a.Z/
2
Actual 3-week Average Total and nonborrowed changes. Total and nonborrowed changes. Total and nonborrowed changes. Total and nonborrowed changes. Total and nonborrowed changes. Total and nonborrowed changes. Not available at time
n.a. /
40,515
225 193
3327/ n.a.-
953 981
1,021 n.a.Z
reserves paths adjusted downward by $128 million due to multiplier reserves paths adjusted upward by $15 million due to multiplier reserves paths adjusted upward by $150 million due to multiplier reserves paths adjusted downward by $83 million due to multiplier reserves paths adjusted downward by $22 million due to multiplier reserves paths adjusted upward by $86 million due to multiplier Bluebook was prepared.
Table 1
Selected Interest Rates
October 5, 1981
Percent
1980--High Low
19.83 8.68
16.73 6.49
14.3) 7.18
15.70 6.66
20.58 8.17
19.74 7.97
21.50 11.00
14.29 8.61
13.36 9.91
12.91 9.54
14.51 10.53
15.03 10.79
10.56 7.11
16.35 12.18
15.93 12.28
14.17 10.73
1981--High Low
20.06
13.48
16.72 12.64
15.05 11.83
15.85 12.08
18.70 13.47
18.04 12.87
20.64 17.00
16.54 12.55
15.65 12.27
15.03 11.81
17.62 14.05
17.52 13.98
13.21 9.49
18.36 14.80
19.23 14.84
17.46 13.18
1980--Aug. Sept.
9.61 10.87
9.13 10.27
9.39 10.48
9.44 10.55
9.91 11.29
9.57 10.97
11.12 12.23
10.63 11.57
11.10 11.51
11.00 11.34
12.32 12.74
12.31 12.72
8.67 8.94
12.56 13.20
13.92 14.77
12.34 12.84
12.81 15.85 18.90
11.61 13.73 15.49
11.30 12.66 13.23
11.57 13.61 14.77
12.94 15.68 18.65
12.52 15.18 18.07
13.79 16.06 20.35
12.01 13.31 13.65
11.75 12.68 12.84
11.59 12.37 12.40
13 18 13.85 14.51
13.13 13.91 14.38
9.11 9.56 10.11
13.79 14.21 14.79
14.95 15.53 15.21
12.91 13.55 13.62
19.08 15.93 14.70
15.02 14.79 13.36
12.62 12.99 12.28
13.88 14,13 12.98
17.19 16.14 14.43
16.58 15.49 13.94
20.16 19.43 18.05
13.01 13.65 13.51
12.57 13.19 13.12
12.14 12.80 12.69
14.12 14.90 14 71
14.17 14.58 14.41
9.66 10.10 10.16
14.90 15.13 15.40
14.87 15.24 15.74
13.55 14.13 14.18
15.72 18.52 19.10
13.69 16.30 14.73
12.79 14.29 13.22
13.43 15.33 13.95
15.08 18.27 16.90
14.56 17.56 16.32
17.15 19.61 20.03
14.09 15.08 14.29
13.68 14.10 13.47
13.20 13.60 12.96
15.68 15.H8 14.76
15.48 15.48 14.81
10.62 10.79 10.67
15.58 16.40 16.70
16.54 16.93 16.17
14.59 15.31 15.02
19.04 17.82 15.87 18.84 19.93 18.76 19.05 18.54
14.95 15.51 14.70 14.25 14.68 14.74 15.17 15.23
13.91 14.70 14.53 13.23 13.51 13.58 14.15 14.24
14.40 15,55 15.06 13.62 14.05 14.21 15.32 14.79
17.76 11.96 16.84 17.00 17.52 17.o4 17.'0 11.01
17.00 17.23 16.09 16.28 16.80 16.89 17.16 17.21
20.39 20.50 20.08 20.00 20.07 20.50 20.50 20.50
15.15 16.00 16.22 14.48 14.71 14.82 15.39 15.48
14.28 14.94 15.32 13.79 13.98 14.05 14.41 14.51
13.59
16. o0
15.73 16.82 17.26 14.94 15.04 15.67 16.05 16.55
11.14 12.26 12.92 10.85 10.97 11.09 11.34 11.44
16.83 17.29 18.16 16.64 16.79 16.74 16.88 17.11
16.65 17.63 18.99 -16.43 16.87
15.76 16.67 17.06 15.33 15.55 15.56 16.17
5 12 19 26
18.25 18.29 18.19 17.41
15.21 15.23 15.61 15.70
14.47 14.46 14.67 14.89
15.57 15.12 15.64 15.85
17.94 17.91 1H.O0 18.07
17.22 17.23 17.36 17.22
20.50 20.50 20.50 20.50
15.83 15.64 15.92 16.25
14.84 14.67 14.73 15.17
14.10 13.89 13.93 14.40
16.68 16.63 16.80 17.15
11.63 11.94 12.49 12.97
17.13 17.27 17.26 17.48
17.27
Sept.2 9 16 23 30
16.89 16.50 16.09 15.33 15.00
15.57 15.55 14.52 14.32 14,23
14.98 15.05 14.41 14.07 14.48
15.65 15.80 14.66 14.13 14.93
17.77 17.78 16.98 16.17 16.19
16.97 16.97 16.29 15.44 15.46
20.50 20.50 20.36 19.86 19.50
16.41 16.54 16.15 15.82 16.34
15.37 15.53 15.15 14.98 15.65
14.65 14.85 14.51 14.30
17.50 17.52 16.92 17.18 17.75p
13.10 13.21 12.79 12.57 12.93
17.79 18.22 18.27 18.36 n.a.
18.37
14.39 16.96 16.80p
14.30 14.57 14.65
14.50 14.63 14.39
16.04 16.71 16.80
15.29 15.89 16.15
19.50 19.50 19.50
16.37 16.40 16.1nP
15.68 15.75 15.43P
15.08 15.14
Oct. Nov. Dec. 1981--Jan. Feb. HMar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. 1981--July 1 8 15 22 29 Aug.
Daily--Sept. 25 1 Oct. 2
NOTE Weekly data for columns 1. 2, 3, and 6 through 10 are statement week averages of daily data Weekly data in column 4 are average rates set m the auction of 6 month hills that will be issued on the Thursday following the end of the statement week For column 11, the weekly date is the mid point of the calendar week over which data are averaged Columns 12 and 13 are 1 day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week Column 14 is an average of ron tract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 percent loan to value
14.17
14.67
17.17
13.23 13.35
13.38 13.68 13.77
15.72 16.41 16 73
17.55 17.62 16.87 16.79
15.03
14.80P
-
--
17.24 --
-
18.74 -19.23
15.96
16.55 16.04 16.21 17.28 17.26 17.41 17.05 16.33 17.46
-
ratios made by a sample of Insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in a bi weekly auction for short term forward commitments for government underwritten mortgages, figures exclude graduated payment mortgages GNMA yields are average net yivpils to investors on mortgage backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 year on pools of 30 year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current F IA/VA celingq rn . 1', ,-
Table 2 October 5, 1981
Net Changes In System Holdings of Securities1 Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted
Period
1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1980--Qtr.
11l IV
1981--Qtr. I 11 II III 1981--Apr. May June July Aug. Sept.
1981--July
Aug.
Sept.
1 8 15 22 29
Treasury bills net2 change
Treasury coupons net purchases thin 1-year
3
Federal agencies net purchases
10
1-5
510
over to
Stotal
863 4,361 870 6,243 -3,052
472 517 1,184 603 912
3,025 2,833 4,188 3,456 2,138
1,048 758 1,526 523 703
642 553 1,063 454 811
5,187 4,660 7,962 5,035 4,564
-3,298 -58
137 100
541
236
320
1,234 100
-2,514 2,135 2,912
-23 115 122
469 607
164 64
89 182
1,141 790 204
115
469
164
89
1,225 1,379 308
122
607
347 978 -100
122
607
64
64
182
withIn within 1-year
15
510
4
over 10
105
total 891 1,433 127 454 668
Not RPs'
6,227 10,035 8,724 10,290 2,035
3,607 -2,892 -1,774 -2,597 2,462
-2,157 -1
-1,381 1,107
-23 836 976
-2,555 2,944 3,855
-1,694 -1,352 425
836
1,975 790 179
-588 -2,166 1,502
976
2,200 1,379 275
1,768 -843 -500
-13
917 5,241 -4,104 3,894 -4,105
-47 131 217
976
182
Net change outright holdings ? total
1,322 978 -100
5 12 19 26
915 797
915 797 -85
-710 -898 3,021 -3,699
2 9 16 23 30
-604 -627 250 1,160 -204
-604 -627 217 1,160 -204
2,692 282 -1,716 474 -206
135.6
-2.6
LEVEL--Sept. 30
49.5
15.0
34.7
11,5
16.2
77.4
I Change from end-of-period to end of period. 2 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) In bill auctions, 3 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short term notes acquired in ex change for maturing bills Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System 4 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts
2.4
4.7
1.0
0.6
8.7
5 In addition to the net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct TrPasury borrowing from the System and redemptions (-) of agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6 Includes changes in RPs I(), matched sale purchase transactions (-I, and matched purchase sale transactions (+)
FR 1368 (7/81)
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC
Table 3
Security Dealer Positions and Bank Positions
October 5, 1981
Millions of dollars Underwriting syndicate p
U S government securities dealer positions
Period
cash coupons
_____bills
1980--High Lom
lulumcs and forwards brll,
noupons-
-
_. ons
syndicate positions corporate municipal bonds
bonds
excess sxte adjstment
ee
Member bank reserve puslions Memb bank resro t pRB *tons
borrowing at FA '* d Extended seasonal nc_ dps pecial
_
total _ta
8,838
2,263
299
466
881
3,298
174
816
3,438
1,972
-1,482
0
22
19
12
5
0
215
-3,599 -2,514**
83 0
268 19
508 -95
2,597 570
309 99
236 *
2,912 766
1981--High Low
15,668 1,273
4,633 965**
1980--Aug. Sept.
5,108 3,681
798 -416
3,081 414
-1,974 -1,185
91 24
153 171
302 256
408 1,253
9 25
241 33
658 1,311
Oct. Nov. Dec.
2,447 3,047 4,287
143 149 20
-1,556 -7,068 -9,812
-1,685 -2,663 -2,751
14 17 6
114 57 70
206 521 468
1,244 1,963 1,571
66 97 116
* * 3
1,310 2,059 1,690
1981--Jan. Feb. Har.
9,985 13,317 13,579
1,584 1,812 3,415
-11,976 -12,203 -11,561
-2,884 -2,798 -3,251
8 8 46
68 95 124
310 276 248
1,204 1,135 789
120 148 196
22 21 15
1,395 1,303 1,000
Apr. May June
8,518 1,676 5,547
3,149 2,745 3,278
-7,277 -6,486 -9,914
-3,050 -2,822 -2,925
15 2 42
194 110 192
127 175 249
1,168 1,154 1,'39
162 269 291
8 5 7
1,338 2,228 2,037
July Aug. Sept. July 1 8 15 22 29
2,950 4,324 5,611** 3,046 3,224 3,349 2,756 2,732
3,314 2,242 1,614** 3,255 4,385 3,380 2,285 3,367
-8,340 -10,071 -9,810** -9,411 -8,46, -7, t) -8,712 -8,528
-3,012 -2,972 -2,856** -2,799 -3,111 -3,053 -3,089 -2,930
5 6
153 65
3 0 15 7 0
257 120 137 135 115
250 202 3 8 3 p 345 330 63 309 298
1,429 1,105 933p 1,425 1,622 1,051 1,483 1,717
247 235 222p 306 242 241 244 257
3 80 301p 4 2 3 3 4
1,679 1,420 1,456p 1,735 1,866 1,295 1,730 1,978
2,985 4,215 4,711 5,030
2,064 2,696 2,011 2,126
-7,606 -8,879 -10,997 -11,436
-2,794 -2,828 -2,988 -3,093
0 0 25 0
67 60 68 65
206 322 217 214
J86 1,045 1,167 1,325
228 223 231 246
4 3 59 155
1,118 1,271 1,457 1,726
4,453 6,859** 7,008** 5,944** 2,689**
2,366 1,539** 965** 2,005** 1,742**
-11,278 -11,135** -10,160'* -9,657** -8,070**
--3,067 -2,514** -2,703* -3,019** -3,116**
0 8 0 25 23
65 19 52 84 58
251 353 25sp 8 27 p 494p
1,011 1,132 857p 891p 8 82 p
246 217 205p 230p 23 1p
191 236 87 2 p 325p 38 7 p
1,448 1,585 34 1, 9p 1/46p 6 1,44 p
Aug.
5 12 19 26
Sept.2 9 16 23 30
-12,865 -5,930
dealer cash positions consist of securities already delivered, commit NOTE: Government securities ments to buy (sell) securities on an outright basis for immediati drievery (5 business days or less), and certain "when issued" securities for delayed delivery (more than 5 business days Futures and forward
positions include all other commitments involvinq delayed drivwry, futures contracts are arranged on organized exchanges Underwriting syndicate positions consists of issues in syndicate, excluding trading positions.
Weekly data are daily averaqes for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issue in Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowing are weighted syndicate, which are Friday fiqires averages of statement week figures. Monthly data for dealer futures and forwards areend of month
figures for 1980 **Strictly confidential FR 138 (7/81)
Cite this document
Federal Reserve (1981, October 5). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19811006
@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19811006,
author = {Federal Reserve},
title = {Bluebook},
year = {1981},
month = {Oct},
howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19811006},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}