bluebooks · May 17, 1982

Bluebook

Prefatory Note

The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.

In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.

May 14,

Strictly Confidential (FR)

1982

Class I FOMC

MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

May 14, 1982

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC

MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES Recent developments (1)

M1 growth in April on average was at a relatively sub-

stantial 11¾ percent annual rate, but weakness in late April and early May brought the level of this aggregate below the path consistent with the Committee's 3 percent (annual rate) growth objective for the March to June period.

The NOW account component of M1 declined in late April,

mainly reflecting collection of mid-April tax payments, and has shown little net change thus far in May.

Given its recent weakness, M1 has

moved down somewhat more rapidly than targeted toward the upper end of the FOMC's longer-run range. (2) M2 has been running close to the FOMC's March-to-June path in April and early May as variations in its M1 component have been about offset by compensating changes in its nontransactions component. Thus, it is approaching the long-run path about as planned. (3) Bank credit growth in April continued at an 8¾ percent annual rate, as lending to businesses slowed somewhat further while acquisitions of Treasury securities picked up.

Virtually all of the

business loan expansion last month was at large banks; data for early May suggest a strengthening of loan growth at such banks.

Business

borrowing from other sources also has moderated in April, with issuance of commercial paper slowing substantially and offerings of new stocks

and bonds remaining sluggish.

-2

KEY MONETARY POLICY AGGREGATES (Seasonally adjusted annual rate of growth)

1982

1981 QIV to 1982 April QI 1982

Jan.

Feb.

March

April

21.0

-3.5

2.4

11.8

10.4

8.7

12.2

4.3

11.2

9.8

9.7

9.4

6.9

13.9

9.3

9.5

10.3

8.9

5.8

11.3

11.4

8.6

9.5

10.5

12.5

8.5

8.8

9.8

9.7

-2.5

-17.6

14.4

0.6

0.3

1.0

Total Reserves

22.2

-10.2

4.7

2.8

8.3

5.5

Monetary Base

11.6

3.4

4.1

9.5

8.0

7.5

1,321

1,557

1,248

1,323

418

304

361

280

Money and Credit Aggregates

(Nontransactions component) M3 Bank Credit 1/ Reserve Measures 2/ Nonborrowed Reserves

Memo:

(Millions of Dollars)

Adjustment Borrowing 4/ Excess Reserves

1/ Adjusted for shifts of assets from U.S. offices to IBFs and shifts of assets to commercial banks that took place because of mutual savings bank-commercial bank mergers. 2/ Growth rates of reserve measures are adjusted to remove the effects of discontinuities resulting from phased changes in reserve ratios under the Monetary Control Act. 3/ Nonborrowed reserves include special borrowing and other extended credit from the Federal Reserve. 4/ Includes seasonal borrowing.

(4)

Total reserves expanded at a modest 2-3/4 percent seasonally

1/ adjusted annual rate in April.- Virtually all of the increase in total reserves was provided through the discount window.

As M1 accelerated above

target levels in the first part of April, the demand for total reserves rose, and adjustment (including seasonal) borrowing increased above the $1,150 million level assumed for initial construction of the reserve paths.

During the first four weeks of the intermeeting period such borrowing averaged about $1,330 million.

However, with the monetary aggregates

beginning to weaken in late April, the demand for reserves has dropped, and banks most recently have borrowed close to $1 billion from the discount window on average. (5) The recent easing in bank reserve positions was not immediately reflected in a corresponding drop of the funds rate. the 14¼ to 14

Until today's drop into

percent area, the funds rate had been trading around 15¾ per-

cent on average in the first part of May, little different from its trading area at the time of the last meeting.

Other short-term rates, however,

tended to decline somewhat through the intermeeting period as market participants assumed the funds rate would drop in

the future with an expected re-

versal in the April bulge in money growth, especially in view of indications of continuing weak economic performance.

Short-term interest rates have fallen

by ½ to 1¼ percentage points since the March FOMC meeting, and long-term rates have declined similarly.

It is doubtful that recent developments in

the Congress on the budget, in view of the general uncertainties surrounding 1/ The substantial differential between the rates of growth in total reserves and M1 in April reflects the impact of lagged reserve accounting, a reduction in the average reserve ratio on transactions accounts, and also a drop in excess reserves. 2/ Reserve paths and intermeeting adjustments are shown in Appendix I.

-4the process, have had an appreciable effect on recent market rate movements.

(6) After rising further following the last FOMC meeting, the dollar declined sharply in the exchange markets, mainly reflecting some easing of U.S. interest rates and a belief in foreign exchange markets that U.S. interest rates would recede further.

Over the entire period

since the FOMC meeting, the dollar is off about 4 percent on a weighted average basis.

Alternative near-term targets (7) The upper panel of the following table shows three alternative targets for M1 and M2 for the second quarter.

The middle panel

indicates the implied two-month April-to-June targets for each alternative, given the April growth rates that have already occurred, and the last row of the table shows associated intermeeting federal funds rate ranges. More detailed and longer-run data for the alternatives are shown in the table and charts on the following pages, and the quarterly interest rate path underlying the staff's GNP projection for the balance of 1982 is contained in Appendix II. Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

4½

1½

8½

7½

-1¼

-3½

6¼

Growth from March to June

Implied growth from April to June

M1 M2

7¾

Federal funds rate range

10 to 14

11 to 15

12 to 16

(8) Alternative B represents the Committee's current March-toJune target of 3 percent (annual rate) growth of M1 and of 8 percent for M2; the M1 target implies a contraction at about a 1 percent annual rate in the remaining two months of the quarter, while M2 would expand at about a 7 percent annual rate.

By June, M1 would still be a bit above the

upper end of its long-run range, but M2 would be about at the upper

Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

448.6 447.3 448.2

1840.9 1847.5 1864.8

2204.0 2214.6 2235.5

452.6 450.3 453.2

452.6 450.0 451.6

452.6 449.6 449.9

1880.0 1891.2 1904.0

1880.0 1890.4 1901.5

1880.0 1889.9 1899.5

2256.8 2269.4 2285.2

2256.8 2268.6 2282.7

2256.8 2268.1 2280.7

21.0 -3.5 2.4

12.2 4.3 11.2

8.9 5.8 11.3

11.8 -6.0 7.7

11.8 -6.9 4.3

11.8 -7.9 0.8

9.8 7.1 8.1

9.8 6.6 7.0

9.8 6.3 6.1

11.4 6.7 8.3

11.4 6.3 7.5

11.4 6.0 6.7

4.5 0.8

3.0 -1.3

1.5 -3.6

8.4 7.7

7.9 6.9

7.4 6.2

8.9 7.6

8.4 6.9

8.1 6.4

10.4 3.0

10.4

9.7 8.8

8.6 9.5

8.6 9.3

9.0

8.8

1982--January February March April May June Growth Rates Monthly 1982--January February March April May June March '82-June '82 April '82-June '82 Growth Rates Quarterly 198 2 --QI QII

10.4 3.6

2.4

Memo: Growth QIV '81 to June '82

6.5

5.8

9.2

9.0

8.8

8.7

Chart 1

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class II - FOMC

Actual and Targeted M1

Billions of dollars -- 480 ACTUAL LEVEL * * SHORT-RUN ALTERNATIVES -- 470

5'/4% 4%

-- 450 2'/2%

440

-- 430

i O

I N 1981

I J

I F

I M

I A

I M

I J

J 1982

I A

I S

I O

I N

420

Chart 2

CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class II -FOMC

Actual and Targeted M2 and M3

M2 -

Billions of dollars 2000 ACTUAL LEVEL

* * SHORT-RUN ALTERNATIVES -

1950

1900

1850

-- 1800

I, O

N 1981

I F

I M

I A

I M

I J

I A

I S

I N

1750

1982

Billions of dollars --- 2400

9 Y2%

ACTUAL LEVEL SHORT-RUN ALTERNATIVES

235 2350

-- 2300

2250

2200

2150

I O

N 1981

I D

I J

I F

I A

I M

I J

1982

I A

I S

I O

I N

2100 D

end of its range. June at a 4

Alternative A, calling for M1 growth from March to

percent rate, would be consistent with a slower approach

of both M1 and M2 toward the upper ends of their ranges.

Alternative C

calls for more restrictive short-run targets than either A or B, and both aggregates would be within their long-run ranges by June.

(9) Under alternative B, we would expect some further downward drift in short-term rates between now and mid-year.

The transactions

demand for money is expected to be more moderate than anticipated at the time of the last meeting, with projected growth in nominal GNP in the second quarter revised down to only a 6½ percent annual rate.

In addi-

tion, we would anticipate the relatively strong precautionary demands of early this year and late 1981 to begin to moderate as economic prospects improve. (10)

The small decline in M1 over May and June called for by

alternative B would appear to be consistent with a 6 percent growth in total reserves over the two months.

With short-term interest rates

expected to decline--indexed by the federal funds rate drifting down to the 13½ percent area--depository institutions might be expected to borrow about $800 million at the current 12 percent discount rate.

that assumption, nonborrowed reserves would expand by 14 percent at an annual rate over the two months. (11)

The 3-month bill rate under this alternative is likely

to decline to around the 11½ to 12 percent area.

Business credit demands

are expected to remain moderate, given the continued inventory liquidation and a scaling down of fixed investment outlays.

The prime rate under this

alternative would probably drop from its current 16

percent level.

Reduced

private credit demands should leave room for the Treasury's remaining financing needs over the quarter of $8 to $10 billion to be readily met in short- and intermediate-term markets--the required maturity range unless the Congress authorizes additional leeway for the Treasury to issue bonds.

Bond yields would probably decline further, with the extent of

decline depending in part on the fiscal outlook and in part on the extent to which any short rate declines are viewed as reflecting the beginnings of a longer-run trend toward lower rates as inflation abates.

Declines in

U.S. short-term interest rates could extend the recent reduction in the foreign exchange value of the dollar from its current relatively high level. (12)

Alternative A, which calls for a 4

percent annual rate of

growth in M1 from March to June, probably would result in appreciable interest rate reductions along the maturity spectrum.

While relatively

little money growth is implied by this alternative in May and June on average, money demands are expected to be quite weak over the balance of

the quarter, given the build-up in money balances through April.

The

funds rate might move to a level somewhat above the current discount rate, with borrowing dropping to around $500 million.

Total reserves would

expand over May and June at about an 8 percent annual rate and nonborrowed reserves at a 20 percent rate.

Growth in M2 could be expected to be

somewhat higher than under alternative B, largely reflecting the stronger

growth in M1 and possibly greater interest in MMCs and MMMFs, both of whose yields lag declines in market rates. (13)

The 3-month bill rate under alternative A would probably

drop below the current discount rate, and range around 11 percent.

substantial bond market rally might well ensue, especially if it appeared that Congress was in process of significantly reducing federal budget deficits.

A considerable depreciation of the dollar on exchange markets

might also take place, although this trend would be limited if foreign monetary authorities took the opportunity to permit their interest rates to decline further.

Reduced deposit costs would diminish earnings

pressures over time on thrifts, work toward making them more willing mortgage lenders, and contribute to further declines in mortgage rates. (14)

Alternative C, which calls for limiting M1 growth to a 1½

percent rate from March to June, implies an increase in total reserves over the latter period at a 4 percent rate.

Assuming adjustment borrowing

at around $1.1 billion, nonborrowed reserves would increase at only a 7½ percent rate over the last two months of the quarter.

The federal

funds rate would probably be around the 14 to 14½ percent area, below its range of recent weeks.

Short- and long-term rates would likely show

little net change, since some easing in money market conditions has probably been anticipated, and on balance the exchange rate would also change little.

-10(15)

The staff is projecting an appreciable expansion in GNP in

the second half of the year under the impetus of the mid-year tax cut and an end to the current inventory liquidation.

Underlying this projection

is the assumption that a marked acceleration of the growth of nominal GNP to about a 9¼ percent annual rate can be financed by relatively modest growth of narrow money--keeping Ml growth within the upper portion of its longer-run range--without upward interest rate pressures in the second half.

Under alternative B, for example, growth in M1 in the second half of the year of 3 to 4¾ percent, as shown in the table below, would be consistent with growth for the year at the upper limit or just below.

velocity expansion, with no rise of interest rates,

The implied

depends not only

on increased willingness to draw on previously accumulated liquidity to finance spending but also on a downward impact on money demand from the continued spread of financial innovations,

such as

sweep accounts.

Alternative A would provide less room for growth of M1 in the second half of the year, assuming the present longer-run target range is retained. Alternative C, of course, provides the most scope for monetary expansion in the second half, but has a slightly greater risk of delaying the onset of economic recovery.

March to June Growth Rate of M1

Growth Rate in Second Half of 1982 to Obtain QIV '81 to QIV '82 M1 Expansion at Midpoint of Middle Top Upper Half of the of Range of Range Range (5-1/2%) (4-3/4%) (4%)

Alt. A

4-1/2

2-1/4

Alt. B

4-3/4

1-1/2

Alt. C

1-1/2

5-3/4

2-1/4

1/2

-11-

Directive language (16)

The Committee could simply reaffirm the directive adopted

at the previous meeting, since the behavior of the aggregates has not been far off track and since many of the same problems of interpretation of aggregate behavior remain.

That directive is shown below.

The language

would be most consistent with alternative B, although it also could be adapted to alternatives A and C.

If the Committee adopted alternative B,

it might wish to note that it has reaffirmed objectives adopted at the last meeting (with possible language shown in brackets). In the short run [,reaffirming its decision at the previous meeting,] the Committee seeks behavior of reserve aggregates consistent with growth of M1 and M2 from March to June at annual 3]____ percent and [DEL: 8]____percent respectively. rates of about [DEL:

The

Committee also noted that deviations from these targets should be evaluated in light of the probability that M2 would be less affected over the period than M1 by deposit shifts related to the tax date and by changes in the relative importance of NOW accounts as a savings vehicle.

Some shortfall in growth of M1, consistent

with progress toward the upper part of the range for the year as a whole, would be acceptable in the context of appreciably reduced pressures in the money market and relative strength of other aggregates.

The Chairman may call for Committee consultation if

it appears to the Manager for Domestic Operations that pursuit of the monetary objectives and related reserve paths during the period before the next meeting is likely to be associated with a 12 to 16] federal funds rate persistently outside a range of[DEL: ____

TO ____ percent.

APPENDIX I RESERVE TARGETS AND RELATED MEASURES INTERMEETING PERIOD (Millions of dollars; not seasonally adjusted) I Implied SI Reserve II Adjustment Borrowing STargets for Inter- I For Smeeting Sub-Period Projection of Remaining (average for Reserves Demanded (Statement sub-period) I (average for sub-period) Weeks Date I NonI Average of InterReserves Path| Total borrowed I Tbtal I Required I Excess I for meeting Constructed I Reserves I Reserves I Reserves r Reserves I Reserves ISub-PeriodI Period[/ I (1) I (2) I (3) 1 (4) I (5) 1 (6) I (7) 4-Week Sub-Period: April 7 to April 28 _ April

138,386

39,4492/138,2992/ 1 39,4142/138,3013/4I 39,3345 /138,2215/

9 16 23

Actual 4-week Average

39,536

I 39,493

I 138,221

I 300

1,150

39,537 39,582 39,498

39,230 39,284 39,230

307 298 268

1,238 1,281 1,277

1,250 1,411 1,394

I I 39,493

I 39,225

3-Week Sub-Period:

39,7026/138,552 6/ I 39,679 39,702 138,552 1 39,658 39,8212/138,700/8/I 39,786

April 30 ay 7 14

39,236

I I

39,536

39,379

I 39,306

39,436

I 268

1,326

May 5 to May 19 I

I I

300 352 351

I 1

1,127 1,106 1,086

1 I I I

1,127 1,016 1,044

1. Represents borrowing in remaining statement weeks (as intermeeting sub-period progresses) implied by each weekly updating of the sub-period average nonborrowed reserves path. The movement in implied borrowing represents deviations in total reserves from target as well as any compensation for misses in nonborrowed reserves from target in earlier weeks of the intermeeting sub-period. 2. Total and nonborrowed reserves paths adjusted downward by $87 million due to changes affecting the reserves multiplier. 3. Total and nonborrowed reserves paths adjusted downward by $35 million due to changes affecting the reserves multiplier. 4. Nonborrowed reserves path adjusted upward by $37 million to offset the reduced demand for borrowing in the week of April 14. 5. Total and nonborrowed reserves paths adjusted downward by $80 million due to changes affecting the reserves multiplier. 6. Total and nonborrowed reserves paths adjusted downward by $213 million due to changes affecting the reserves multiplier. 7. Tbtal and nonborrowed reserves paths adjusted upward by $119 million due to changes affecting the reserves multiplier. 8. Nonborrowed reserves path adjusted upward by $29 million to offset the reduced demand for borrowing in the week of May 12.

Appendix II Interest Rates Assumed in the Greenbook GNP Projection (Quarterly averages, percent)

1982

Federal funds 14.2

Fixed Rate

3-month Treasury bills

Recently offered

Aaa Utility Bond

Mortgage Commitment

12.8

15.7

17.4

12k

161

11i 11

16%

Table 1

May 17,

1982

Selected Interest Rates Percent

Period

federal funds _1

She>rt-Term Treasury bills CDs secondary secondary auction market market 3-month 3-month 1-year 6-month 5 2 3 4

Long-Term U.S. government constant maturity yields

comm. paper 3-month 8

money market mutual fund 7

bank prime loan 8

3-year 9

10-year 10

30-year 11

corporate Aaa utility recently offered 12

municipal Bond Buyer 13

home mortages secondary market primary FNMA GNM conv auction security 14 15 18

1981--High Low

20.06 12.04

16.72 10.20

15.05 10.64

15.85 10.70

18.70 11.51

18.04 11.26

17.32 11.84

20.64 15.75

16.54 12.55

15.65 12.27

15.03 11.81

17.72

13.30

13.98

9.49

18.63 14.80

19.23 14.84

17.46 13.18

1982--High Low

15.61 12.42

14.41 11.46

13.51 12.05

14.36 12.06

15.84 12.94

15.39 12.59

13.89 11.77

16.86 15.75

15.01 13.70

14.81 13.51

14.63 13.13

16.34 15.11

13.44 11.82

17.66 16.78

18.04 16.27

16.56 15.17

1981--Apr. May June

15.72 18.52 19.10

13.69 16.30 14.73

12.79 14.29 13.22

13.43 15.33 13.95

15.08 18.27 16.90

14.56 17.56 16.32

14.10 15.56 16.92

17.15 19.61 20.03

14.09 15.08 14.29

13.68 14.10 13.47

13.20 13.60 12.96

15.48 15.48 14.81

10.62 10.79 10.67

15.58 16.40 16.70

16.54 16.93 16.17

14.59 15.31 15.02

July Aug. Sept.

19.04 17.82 15.87

14.95 15.51 14.70

13.91 14.70 14.53

14.40 15.55 15.06

17.76 17.96 16.84

17.00 17.23 16.09

17.04 17.17 16.55

20.39 20.50 20.08

15.15 16.00 16.22

14.28 14.94 15.32

13.59 14.17 14.67

15.73 16.82 17.33

11.14 12.26 12.92

16.83 17.29 18.16

16.65 17.63 18.99

15.76 16.67 17.06

Oct. Nov. Dec.

15.08 13.31 12.37

13.54 10.86 10.85

13.62 11.20 11.57

14.01 11.53 11.47

15.39 12.48 12.49

14.85 12.16 12.12

15.32 14.33 12.09

18.45 16.84 15.75

15.50 13.11 13.66

15.15 13.39 13.72

14.68 13.35 13.45

17.24 15.49 15.18

12.83 11.89 12.90

18.45 17.83 16.92

18.13 16.64 16.92

16.61 15.10 15.51

1982--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.

13.22 14.78 14.68 14.94

12.28 13.48 12.68 12.70

12.77 13.11 12.47 12.50

12.93 13.71 12.62 12.86

13.51 15.00 14.21 14.44

13.09 14.53 13.80 14.06

12.01 13.11 13.49 n.a.

15.75 16.56 16.50 16.50

14.64 14.73 14.13 14.18

14.59 14.43 13.86 13.87

14.22 14.22 13.53 13.37

15.88 15.97 15.19 15.44

13.28 12.97 12.82 12.59

17.40 17.60 17.16 16.89

17.80 18.00 17.29

16.19 16.21 15.54 15.40

14.07 14.35 14.89 14.48 14.99

12.32 12.25 12.77 12.75 13.17

12.48 12.11 12.56 12.51 12.73

12.79 12.06 12.96 12.67 13.24

14.04 13.77 14.31 14.23 14.58

13.63 13.43 13.90 13.79 14.12

13.29 13.45 13.52 13.51 13.48

16.50 16.50 16.50 16.50 16.50

14.17 13.78 14.19 14.15

13.84 13.66 13.93 13.83 14.09

13.60 13.42 13.59 13.46 13.68

15.31 15.15 15.14 15.11 15.25

12.53 12.71 12.99 13.04 13.13

17.29 17.19 17.12 17.04 16.95

17.16

17.46

15.47 15.40 15.64 15.37 15.83

16.50 16.50 16.50 16.50

14.38 14.24 14.13 14.05

14.14 13.90 13.74 13.71

13.67 13.38 13.21 13.20

15.65 15.39 15.27 15.55

12.99 12.54 12.29 11.97

16.91 16.93 16.86 16.81

15.72 15.41 15.23 15.22

16.50 16.50

14.06 13.70

13,87 13.51

13.39 13.13

15.29r 15.38p

12.04 11.82

16.78 n.a.

16.50 16.50 16.50

13.68 13.82 13.72p

13.48 13.62 13.45p

13.08 13.25 3 6 1 .1 p

1982--Mar.

Apr.

May

Daily--May 7 13 14

3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28

15.15 14.68 15.01 14.72

13.17 12.85 12.53 12.42

12.69 12.59 12.49 12.32

12.80 12.90 12.72 12.64

14.55 14.58 14.53 14.20

14.18 14.21 14.17 13.77

13.70 13.73 13.89 13.64

5 12 19 26

15.53 14.97

12.57 12.32

12.39 12.05

12.78 12.24

14.31 13.82

13.90 13.51

13.59 13.75

14.90 14.89 14.35p

12.25 12.50 12.36

11.93 12.30 12.05

13.75 13.87 13.90

13.54 13.50 13.52

14.43

17.26

16.27

15.59 15.17

I NOTE Weekly data for columns 1, 2,3, and 5 through 11 are statement week averages. Weekly data In column 4 are average rates set In the auction of 6-month bills that will be issued on the Thursday following the end of the statement week Data in column 7 are taken from Donoghues Money Fund Report Columns 12 and 13 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week Column 14 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 percent loan-to value ratios made by a sample of Insured savings and loan associations on the Friday

following the end of the statement week The FNMA auction yield is the average yield In a bl weekly auclion for short term forward commitments for government underwritten mortgages, figures exclude graduated payment mortgages GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHAVA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHAIVA ceiling

FR 1367 (1182)

Table 2

May 17, 1982

Net Changes in System Holdings of Securities 1 Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted

Treasury coupons net purchases

Treasury

-0

bills net

Period

1-year

517 L84 503 912 294

total

2,833 4,188 3,456 2,138 1,702

758 1,526 523 703 393

553 1,063 454 811 379

4,660 7,962 5,035 4,564 2,768

164 64 165

89 182 108

-2,514 2,135 2,912 2,803

-23

L15 L22 80

469 607 626

1982--Qtr. I

-4,329

1,750 2,170

1982--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. 1982--Mar. 3 10 17 24 31

-3,356 148 -1,121 4,149 -547 -1,074 92 99

Apr. 7 14 21 28

450 690 2,322 687

May

5 12 19 26

LEVEL--May 12

over 10

1981--Qtr. I II III IV

ve0

510

4,361 870 6,243 -3,052 5,337

1981--Nov. Dec.

Federal agencies net purchases

1-5

1977 1978 1979 1980 1981

1,i

100

526

165

1-year

1-5

510

ver

over 10

Net change Net RPs

toaoutright

total 1,433 127 454 668 494

total 10,035 8,724 10,290 2,035 8,491

-2,892 -1,774 -2,597 2,462 684

-23 ---836 976 979

-2,555 2,944 3,855 4,247

-1,694 -1,352 424 3,305

-4,371

-999

100

108

879

2,333 3,045

2,747 767

-3,424 191 -1,134 4,979

900 -3,770 1,871 4,877 2,084 -1,967 2,265 -1,795 753

133

360

132

-552 -1,087 92 99

-219 -700

117

555

805

51.2

15.6

36.7

10.3

16.8

79.3

.1_______________________________________________

1 Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. 4 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity ;hifts

2.3

5.3

0.9

0.5

450 685 2,352 687

-6,184 2,715 4,781 -740

586 -700

-2,264 1,313

139.5

_________________________

5 In addition to the net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowing from the System and redemptions (-) of agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6 Includes changes in RPs (+), matched sale-purchase transactions (-), and matched purchase-sale transactions (+).

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC May 17, 1982

Table 3

Security Dealer Positions and Bank Positions Millions of dollars

U.S. government securities dealer positions Period

cash

futures and forwards bills coupons

Underwriting syndea iting syndicate positions corporate municipal bonds bonds

excess** reserves

adjustment

Member bank reserve positions ensmberbank reerat FRBptin borrowing at FRBseasonal extended includes secial)

tot

bills

coupons

1981--High Low

15,668 540

4,633 540

-12,865 -4,535

-4,676 -2,514

595 0

268 11

562 -21

2,597 145

309 30

464 *

2,912 317

1982--High Low

9,318 800

6,309 1,413

-8,499 -5,617

-4,055 -2,908

186 0

202 38

622 0

1,547 685

200 53

324 193

1,908 950

1981--Apr. May June

8,518 1,676 5,547

3,149 2,745 3,278

-7,277 -6,486 -9,934

-3,050 -2,822 -2,925

15 2 42

194 110 192

169 257 338

1,168 1,954 1,740

162 269 291

8 6 7

1,338 2,228 2,037

July Aug. Sept.

2,950 4,324 5,611

3,314 2,242 1,614

-8,340 -10,071 -9,830

-3,012 -2,972 -2,856

5 10 2

153 65 55

340 292 414

1,429 1,105 933

247 235 222

3 80 301

1,679 1,420 1,456

Oct. Nov. Dec.

4,781 5,037 2,185

1,629 3,821 2,289

-8,575 -7,120 -5,416

-3,655 -4,307 -4,150

29 195 21

59 106 172

278 344 319

591 403 433

152 95 54

438 165 148

1,181 663 636

3,527 4,557 6,594 8,181**

4,803 5,332 5,653 4,887**

-6,115 -7,726 -6,652 -4,574**

-3,112 -3,173 -3,045 -3,265**

0 8 106 23

52 97 104 76

418 304 361 280p

1,245 1,426 1,073 1,156p

75 131 175 167p

197 232 308 245p

1,518 1,790 1,556 1,568p

5,572 6,322 5,877 7,337 7,406

6,107 6,309 4,944 5,859 5,262

-8,379 -7,396 -6,923 -6,531 -4,630

-2,879 -3,186 -3,087 -3,180 -2,782

0 186 165 73 30

54 202 86 72 57

513 307 337 269 466

1,127 990 976 1,170 1,132

147 151 187 173 200

288 306 301 311 324

1,562 1,447 1,464 1,654 1,656

-2,712 -3,029 -3,650** -4,457p**

0 0 0 70

38 69 76 117

272 318 171 309p

1,035 947 1,246 1,418p

166 154 159p 17 7 p

279 234 248p 227p

1,480 1,335 1,653 1,822p

93 n.a.

456p 296p

1,081p 710p

205p 218p

214p 192p

1,500p 1,120p

1982--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Mar.

Apr.

7 14 21 28

9,318 8,061 8,202** 5,5 30 p**

5,393 4,677 4,277** 5,567p**

-1,795 -3,148 -6,852** -8,6 7 9p**

May

5 12 19 26

6,192p** 6,104p**

4,446p** 7,395p**

-8 ,3 90p** -3,910p** -9,901p** -4 ,6 97 p**

27 n.a.

NOTE: Government securities dealer cash positions consist of securities already delivered, commit. ments to buy (sell) securities on an outright basis for immediate delivery (5 business days or less), and certain "when-issued" securities for delayed delivery (more than 5 business days). Futures and forward positions include all other commitments involving delayed delivery; futures contracts are arranged on organized exchanges. Underwriting syndicate positions consists of issues in syndicate, excluding trading positions.

Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate, which are Friday figures. Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowing are weighted averages of statement week figures. Monthly data for dealer futures and forwards are end-of-month figures for 1980. **Strictly confidential

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1982, May 17). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19820518

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19820518,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1982},
  month = {May},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19820518},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}